tv Street Signs CNBC November 8, 2016 4:00am-5:01am EST
good morning, everybody and welcome you're now watching street signs. >> these are your headlines. >> election day is finally here polling stations are set to open in one of the most contentious presidential battles in history. they make their final pleas in key states. >> i believe it's the most important election of our lifetimes because we have never had a clearer choice. never. >> today is our independence
day. today the american working class is going to strike back, finally. >> european stocks failed to find a clear direction. doubling it's third quarter net profit despite challenges. >> it has all the retail banks in europe and low interest rate environment. >> and it's a tail of two in the retail space. rally more than 6% as potential brexit benefits while they suffer a 90% drop in first half profits. >> shares are on track for the worst day in three months after the steel producer warns of weaker profitability in the
fourth quarter. >> good morning. i can't wait. i'm so excited. >> it's just waiting. just simply waiting. >> but did you see the polar bear. the polar bear voted. there's a polar bear in russia that gets to pick between two pumpkins and it went for the hillary clinton pumpkin. >> excellent. >> anything to keep us entertained. >> occupied. all right. anyway let's look at our european heat map and our markets this morning we did see gains across the board yesterday and the asian market overnight that we'll hear about in a bit and hanging on to the positive trend this morning.
cautiously optimistic over a clinton win a couple of points lower. it's not just election day. we have seen a flood of earnings across europe as well this morning. some of the biggest movers on the day include ab foods to the upside while solvay is underperforming as seen there and we'll take a closer look at some of these stories in a couple of minutes. i also want to show you what we saw with regards to the u.s. close yesterday. we saw wall street soaring. up to 2.5%. the biggest with one day percentage gain since the first of marchand the s&p and dow jones industrial average recovering all of their losses from last week. that's what the positioning has been like here a day ahead of the opening. >> pennsylvania and michigan give donald trump his greatest
chance for posting an election day surprise while victories in colorado and nevada could seal the deal for hillary clinton or at least that's according to golden sacks's he hex guide. it's largely in line projecting clinton will win the white house. the democrats will get a majority in the senate and could possibly be by a 50/50 split which means the vice president would break the tie. >> david tucker criticized both donald trump and hillary clinton on cnbc. in the end the hedge fund billionaire said he will be voting for clinton. speaking about trump tepper called hill the father of lies. >> this is a guy that has to remind himself to stay on message. he talks to himself stay on message donald. stay on message. and the reason people are nervous about this guy is he going to get in the oval office and say don press the button
donald. don't press the red button. it makes people nervous and that's economics. >> meantime here both candidates made their case for how they would be better for the economy. which party has historically been better for the stock market. >> take a look at what's happening with the overall election. a lot of people are wondering whether democrats or republicans do better for the stock market and as it turns out on average the democratic presence that we have had since the inception of the dow protused higher average gains. democratic administrations there's been 8 of them since the late 18s. on average the dow jones industrial average is up 82% during those presidential terms. meanwhile the good news is for the republicans it's still up it shall there's 12 of them there for those administrations.
and no matter whose president the market goes up on average, the best and worst a lot of the emergence from there. if you looked over the long-term since 1981 if you look at the s&p 500 broken down by republican and democratic administrations but overall over the longer term the market has gone higher and here we are a few percent away from record highs so some will say it doesn't matter who is in the white house. this country has gone onward and upwards and the stock market has gone along with it. here's where it gets interesting. a lot of folks generally speaking on wall street from the strategist side seem to think that the markets generally will go up with a clinton win and generally go down with with a trump win. j.p. morgan chase out with a note today. we could see the s&p go up to 2150 about 3% higher than on
friday. for citi group we could see as much as a 5% drop if trump wins and barclays saying a clinton win could be a 2% gain for the s&p. so guys overall this is the way it's setting up. back over to you guys. >> let's get out to eric. thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you. >> a lot of people have said if trump wins we should be looking at how the post brexit period unfolded when it comes to the trading activity. a big slump and quite a bit of recovery. >> it is an interesting anlage in that both trump and brexit were both against the establishment and the status quo. i think everyone was surprised by the extent and it did bounce back robustly but has not managed to make new highs since.
part of that is the brexit situation is unclear and i guess at least with donald trump getting into the white house at least it's within an established political frame work. >> the best case scenario is hillary clib on the takes the white house and democrats also take the senate and they are on the house of representatives. what happens in that scenario. what will stocks do? >> i think go back to the status quo which is really you can really get much done so there's a lot of rhetoric now about how the president is, you know, the most powerful job in the world which is true but also must be one of the most frustrating jobs in the world because he can't get much done and he is the living proof of it. he kale in on the mandate of hope and change and hasn't been to ill plement much. whoever comes in this time is going to have probably a man date because the margin of victory is going to be there and
i imagine turn out is going to be disappointingly meager. suggesting there's not much mandate and then continued gridlock across washington for whoever comes into the white house to effect change is limited. >> do you think that those for european markets. some of which have been rallying of late were to continue higher? we know we're doing brexit. >> at least it's out of the way. probably the next thing to worry about to some extent. i look at the u. kflt equity market and i do worry that 7,000 on the ftse 100 seems to be a pronounced ceiling.
it's increasing exposure to the stocks so the sector has been an obvious political casualty in the u.s. election both sides highlighted big issues. and they look bad and, you know, drug pricing in north america is a real live issue. but i do think it's a relatively small end of the market and continues across the whole sector and although the health care southern land needs to workout how to pay for new
drugs, it will get paid for. it maybe the expense of less pricing on products but overall there's still an opportunity and i remain quite cautious about the overall economic outlook so pharmaceuticals probably look better. >> you can still get dividend help. thank you so much for that. appreciate it. >> millions of americans already cast early ballots but now the polls are officially open on election day and the first results are already in. the tiny town in new hampshire held it's vote in the early morning hours since 1960 and this year hillary clinton came away the winner with four votes. donald trump picked up two votes and libertarian candidate fwar
johnson got one and mitt romney also got a write in vote even though he's not running this year. >> so technically clinton won that state. >> and the demographics in that town is interesting because it's primarily white men and those usually tend to vote for trump. >> precisely. >> at least 42 million voted early. >> and many of them hispanic which is is what clinton has been banking on. >> yeah. >> e-mail the show and get involved. loads more to come here in the next 45 aminutes or so. the address is street signs europe. find us live on twitter. >> now world markets live will also be up and running tomorrow morning for special election
coverage. head to cnbc.com for all the early news as it happens. >> still coming up it's a big day in the u.s. we'll talk trade and the election with the president of cadillac. that's right after the short break. don't go away. the pursuit of healthier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day.
they discussed u. s. trade rhetoric at the web summit event in lisban. >> a lot of the things that i hear out there has nothing to do with it. it's mostly about domestic taxization and income and things like that and it's difficult to tell what is meant by all of the comments and suggestions. i would rather wait and see what comes out of all of that before i say anything about trade in those policies. >> let me ask you then u.s. trade deals are in doubt no matter who wins. trump will try to undo nafta and ttp while clinton maylene against asia and europe. how uncertain is the outlook in your view? >> trade agreements are always difficult. they're very complex. very sensitive politically as well. the reality is unless you sit down and study every single provision you most likely don't really understand what is in it
so i suppose every president and every leader wants to strike views they view as favorable to their countries but of course so does the other side and the bargaining process is a lengthy and difficult one. >> well, karens is in lisben and must be stealing massive amounts of the limelight at the web summit. >> it's hard to believe it's business as usual with 50,000 people on the ground . >> joining me is the president of the business. thank you for joining us. nice to see you. >> thank you. >> do you care who wins the u. s presidential election because
the next president will be around. >> it's about what is good for the country and the people of america and the generations to follow. >> we had a conversation about trade policy with the head of the wto. front and center is whether trump wins and if he does whether that means for tariffs on companies that want to offshore. how do you think that impacts the decisions for the auto makers like cadillac? >> all of these things will be interesting to watch. for cadillac we actually curtail production in mexico at the end of last year and we produce all cadillacs in the united states for mobile production and consumption with the exception of china. china, the way the regulations are written really facilitates local manufacturing in that country for distribution in china. >> you're a luxury car company so it's different talking about price with you versus the rest of the auto makers but if
companies are forced to produce solely in the united states will that drive up the cost of cars? >> i think generally speaking. it's what generates cost competitors and what you would want to do is do large production runs for trade. that's the way to keep costs down. >> you're having conversations with start ups, scale ups, unicorns. what is the future for cadillac as a connected car? >> we are right there where these technologies go. through our connectivity which has been there for ten years already and continue to be one of the most advanced in terms of in car connectivity but this is just the beginning. the amount of data is going to be quite astonishing.
just to illustrate. download the equivalent and imagine what we can do with all of the data. >> there's other trends unfolding in the industry. for instance driverless cars and electric. there's so many songs about having a cadillac and most convey what it feels like to be a cadillac owner. does it work if the car becomes a driverless car or an electric one? >> cadillac is about luxury and sophistication but it's also about the driving experience. and that strong emotional connection to the act of driving, cadillac through semi autonomous capability will add to the overall driving
experience far less. >> i want to ask you about china. this is a huge luxury market and the auto makers are seeing that. what is unfolding for you about the demand for cadillac cars in china. >> china is a big gross engine for the brand. it's the fastest growing market right now and we are in a tussle for the number 4 position in the luxury market ranking in china. our sales data are up something like 40% so definitely gaining market share and it's important part of the globalization of the cadillac brand to really step up as china's second big volume hub for the brand to come mriment and b even exceed performance in the united states. >> why are you doing well in china when others are having a difficult time at the moment? >> i think that we are expanding our product portfolio.
cadillac started a product offensive. but also i think cadillac is an iconic american luxury brand and brings something of interest to chinese consumer that they haven't had available until the selection of alternatives before. >> we're going to wrap up the conversation. do you want to make a call as to who is going to win the u. s. election. >> i think judged by what the news reports tell me it would be the candidate that is most -- or rather least is likely. >> breaking news. thank you for joining us here on the ground. the president of cadillac joining us live here at web summit. plenty more conversations coming up. in particular how government and entrepreneurs interact. is it a marriage made in hell? that conversation shortly on the stage here. so stay tuned throughout the day for our cfo rablg here. let me toss it back to you in
the studio. >> good luck. i like his political answer though. the candidate least disliked. that could be either one depending on the side you're on. >> to talk to the maker of the beast on the day of the elections, right? >> exactly. >> china's october trade data disappointed with imports and exports coming in below expectatio expectations. pauline, a noted as well that the majority of asian equity markets higher ahead of the elections. >> yes. riding the momentum of that surge that we saw on wall street the previous session and also the fact that clinton maintains her lead in the polls so exports coming in lower than expected. exports down 7.3% year on year
when the expectation was a slide of 6%. imports also lower than expected. down 1.4% versus an expectation of a slide of 1% but to put this in context september's numbers were worse when we saw exports down 10% year on year but look at the markets in shanghai and hong kong. they seem to shrug that off and up .5% higher. we have strong trade data out of taiwan ending up .3% with exports tracking at its fastest pace in 2 years in taiwan thanks to apple ahead of the holiday season. now as i mentioned the nikkei ended just under the flat line and after the close we got earnings from toyota the world's biggest auto manufacturers and toyota saw a 43% drop in the second quarter they blamed the stronger yen and we saw the asx 200 ending up .10% as copper was
clearer choice. never. >> today is our independence day. today american working class is going to strike back. finally. >> european stocks fail to find a clear direction. out performing after beefing up it's balance sheet and doubling it's third quarter net profits despite macro challenging. >> obviously all the retail banks in europe and the pressure because of the low interest rates environment. >> while they suffer a drop in first half profits. >> feeling the slow down. they're on track for the worst day in three months after they warn of weaker profitability in the 4th quarter.
>> hi, everyone and welcome back to street signs. plus 0.6% on the month and 0.2% on the year. what does it mean? it was slightly stronger. what had been forecast. it was forecast to 0.4 and minus 0.1% year on year respectively so stronger than the anticipated numbers when it comes to manufacturing ouput. industrial production minus 0.4% on the month. that is weaker than forecast. we were looking for a slight gain just above the flat line and a little bit weaker on the year plus 0.3% on the year. slightly mixed data just hitting our wires. >> let's have a look at u. s. if you tours this morning with a couple of hours to go until the market open on election day. the s&p 500 modestly by 1.5
points. the dow jones set to add less than 10 points and nasdaq set to post a gain of 2.5 points. this after strong rally yesterday. logging the biggest gains since march 1st. increasingly once again pricing in a hillary clinton win. dow and s&p 500 posting the third best day of the year and pretty much recovering all the recent losses at least when it comes to the dow. the european market picture we did see the strong rally also on this side of the pond yesterday with the stoxx 600 up by 1.5%. todayed more measured. a mixed performance. cac 40 up by 0.4%. also poor industrial output numbers falling. that's the steepest drop in
almost two years. i want to tell you what's going on in the currency marks too. we're seeing the slightest pull back in the dollar index. we're seeing a slight strengthening in the euro dollar and 11052 and the mexican peso have a stand out performance yesterday given that it's seen as the proxy for the u. s. elections and was up by more than 2% yesterday. today largely up changed at 18.59. let's get back to earnings. the third quarter profit of $1.8 million missed analysts estimates. the world's largest steal producer said that the 4th quarter would be weaker than expected as higher coal prices hit margins. >> gold has been holding steady ahead of tomorrow's u.s. election outcome.
good morning. >> good morning. >> do you think that we'll see significant positioning? we're all in election day now but immediately after the election. >> one of the things that's clear is we have had an election process in which ever way it comes out this evening. what we're going to see is a situation where political status or political deadlock becomes more and more and gold is always a commodity that seems to benefit when there's political uncertainty particular to the u.s. dollar so are we going to see a swift resolution to the issues that haunted the bigger macro issues that haunted this election? i don't think so and i think a number of people look as a way to play that. i think we would expect to see that.
and if we're willing to see issues getting trade deals pushed through because of that or if trump comes into the presidency as well. are both reasons enough to be buying gold? >> well, look as you say there's so many moving parts in all of this and would be of the things that makes it so hard is that we have been long on personality politics and to be honest short on concrete policy that we can see this is going to be the concrete effect of what is going to happen but yeah. and what we need in balances that have been so polarizing in election is a clear and efficacious handle on government policy. in the absence of that, all we get is political uncertainty and we go from crisis to crisis and lack of resolution around any of these bigger picture issues and of course gold is a commodity that performs well whenever we go through those kind of
situatio situations. >> wouldn't you think that the medal space will be benefitting because both candidates have been putting forth the infrastructure push. >> yeah. if you read the reports written by the american society of civil engineers they talk about a $3 trillion deficit in terms of infrastructure spending and we then see hillary come out $275 million and donald saying at least twice that. whatever that means and one of the things that they're looking at here is that infrastructure spebding is an effective way at delivering dollars into the pockets of the working class so much of the criticism has been that the monetary policy is greater than asset values and putting dollars into the pockets of people in a relatively small elite but it leaves behind a large section of the working class and expressing discontent they feel has left them behind
and of course that speaks to demand and it speaks to strengthening commodity price environment and look you know this is something that we have called for a long time there's been a deficit in terms of infrastructure spending in the west. probably the flip side of china's problem what matters more? infa structure spending in the west or china? >> and we have seen a soft landing but it's nowhere near the levels we saw years ago. >> it's china. that's the engine of growth globally. what we have seen in the western world is flat lining growth. demand in the western economies at least on that basis has been flat over the last ten years.
talk around restrictions on trade deals and the drivers of global growth. and at the moment it's in regard to the chinese economy. >> you say you keep thinking long gold at the moment but are there any other medals that stand out to you right now? >> if you look at the commodity space and see what has been the dynamic over the last 6 or 12 months, on the back of the chinese action we have seen coal prices just go up. these are clearly commodities now trading well in excess of what one might consider fair value. we have seen iron ore take a significant run.
if you look across the space and say which of the commodities are still yet to have the run, you would be talking about nickel and copper and these are the two commodities that are really geared to, you know, investment in green energy, renewable energy. we're talking about alternatives of the green economy. if you had to pick two commodities that will do well on the back of it, it would be nickel and copper and yet to have their china bounce really. >> the underlining companies again last year 2015 was a terrible year for these companies. 2016 year what are the percentage increases? >> look at any number of the mining companies and this is a low quality narrative toward the end but last year that the global mining industry was going to go bust what we really saw
was a reversal of the narrative. there was more cost cutting and more asset sales and balance sheet deleveraging and these guys have positions that were a lot more robust than. >> does it have further to run? >> i think when i look at the world's real estate what is the most valuable asset is really the world's natural resources and these guys have the largest and fairest portion of those. we have a global economy that is still short capital and still urbanizing and industrializing population growth continuing let alone the issues about the infrastructure deficit in the western world. you look at where the upside will be. there's still value there. >> thank you so much for that. senior research analyst. florida will prove to be one of the key battleground states and
perhaps the state that's most likely to determine this election. she has crunched the numbers. >> most analysts say that donald trump cannot win the white house without winning florida. the electoral map doesn't work without it because the vote is so close. now half of registered voters in florida have already voted in early voting. the majority of them in person democrats showed up and 30% democrats to 49% republicans. that's how they're registered though but not necessarily how they voted. there was a huge jump in early hispanic voters. they make up 17% in florida and a new count just in from the university of florida shows that nearly 1 million of the 6 million that voted early were hispanic. that share is up 100% compared
to the last presidential election and it's clearly a sign of strong sentiment. >> donald trump hasn't been a favorite and they wanted to prove it. >> this area was hardest hit during foreclosure crisis. one in five homeowners are still under water on their mortgages today. we saw a lot of trump signs especially in front of businesses. most analysts again say trump cannot win without florida. that's why both he and hillary clinton were in florida over the weekend but he visited this state more throughout the campaign roughly 10 more visits than hillary clinton hillary clinton says she deeply refwrets how angry this has become. she urges voters to think rationally. >> we face the test of our time
what will we vote for. not just against. what will we decide is on the ballot because although my name and my opponent's name may be on the ballot, every issue you care about is on that ballot. >> meanwhile in north carolina donald trump continued his plea for people to vote against a, quote, corrupt system and what he calls failed political establishment we're going to win. it's a great way to show what we have to show in light of what's going on. you show it tomorrow. you show it tomorrow. >> nbc's sarah joins us from the trump tower in manhattan. how is mr. trump going to spend
the day? >> good morning. donald trump is resting up after campaigning most of the night. we have seen crowds out here for and against him. a sign of how devicive this election is. despite that trump is hoping that his supporters will help him pull out a win. he ended his campaign yesterday in michigan. michigan is a critical state voting democratic in the past six presidential elections but despite that trump's camp is remaining optimistic. while polls do show him polling, trailing, he has tried to pave the way for an upset win barn storming those battleground states of florida, pennsylvania, north carolina, he also made a stop in new hampshire yesterday and his trip in michigan. his campaign. and all of those children there along with sarah palin.
the ultimate decision is up to voters. with more protests today out tps side of trump towers there's a heightened sense of security not just here but all over new york city. especially the two places where donald trump and hillary clinton are planning on having their election parties tonight. reporting live in new york. back to you. >> all right. thank you so much for that. and they're still expected to raise rates before the end of the year. that doesn't seem to be the case in israel. we'll talk to the governor of the bank of israel coming up after the short break. stick around.
profits to rise the next physical year. higher sugar prices and a weaker pound would boost the value of its overseas group earnings. it was actively engaging with government departments ahead of the brexit process to make sure that opportunities and risks were recognized. >> they warned store closures after posting a 90% drop in first half profits. the british retailer said it would focus on expanding it's food unit while shutting clothing stores in the u.k. and abroad after struggling to turn around the business. >> they posted a bigger than expected 8% drop in net sales in the 3rd quarter due to falling volumes and currency head winds. they reported a 6% rise in quarterly profit and said it expects double digit growth in the 4th quarter. >> meanwhile, they doubled the net income in the third quarter to just under 1.9 billion euros topping estimates. a gain of more than 1 billion
euros from the sale of its stakes in regional banks. the move has helped them boost the capital base and set a minimum dividend for next year. speaking to us earlier the deputy ceo said concerns over the lenders balance sheet are overblown. take a listen. >> having too much as some saying could be for both profitability of the banks in europe and by this time a bit quick and also because it won't be to gross which is obviously some say we all struggle for. >> they claim they have been mistreated and admitted to some wrong doing but deliberately pushed some businesses into restructuring to charge them big
fees and pick up their assets for a fraction of the value. we spoke to howard davis last month about the accusations. here's what he told us. >> we have looked in the past carefully at the way in which distressed businesses were handled in the aftermath of the recession and we accept that that was not done as well as it should be. people were not communicated to properly and they didn't understand what was happening to them so we accept all of that. but with a we don't accept is that there was any systematic attempt to put people out of business for the benefit of the that. >> breaking news pertaining to turkey and the eu. the eu is calling on turkey to return to a credible political process safe guarding democracy and respecting human rights. the eu adding that the latest developments in turkey are
extremely worrying and it says it is ready to continue the political dialogue with turkey. >> now wall street soared on the eve of the presidential election as investors saw higher chance of a clinton victory. steve has been taking a closer look at expectations in a special edition of the cnbc fed survey. >> after every twist and turn in this long and most bizarre of elections wall street was making final bets on monday on the outcome. a powerful rally underscored results of a new cnbc election survey. 78% think democrat hillary clin on will win the white house and 43% want her to win as 23% favored donald trump winning the white house. over 36 responders are dividing up whose policies are best for the economy. 69% say clinton is best for the stock market. nearly half say they will lower their outlook for stocks in trump wins.
they will cut their outlook by 10% but some believe it may be too extreme but does it persist or is it leading up to and after the election? i think we move on whoever wins the white house they believe the best will be divided government. >> when you look at the break down of what the votes are suggesting the house and the senate will stay and the financial markets actually want that. >> a reminder that markets are anything but infallible. and most polls show clinton with a lead inside the margin but for now a clinton victory is well priced into stocks and a trump victory would catch markets off
guard. >> now the japanese prime minister has been speaking in the last hour and advised people to expect the bank of japan to continue taking appropriate action. he also says that the new frame work adopted in september is functioning smoothly. >> the bank of israel held the benchmark interest rate at 0.1% citing inflation and positive economic growth. this was the 20th straight month that the bank had kept the interest rate unchanged and the bank is expected to keep rates steady until at least the end of 2017. i'm very glad to say that we're now joined by the governor of the bank of israel. thank you so much for joining us. what a pleasure to have you on the show. it's election day in the u.s. you're not a political body but i do need to ask you from a monetary policy and economics perspective in israel is there would be candidate in the u. s. that would be better for your economy? >> i wouldn't comment on that. we will look at what are they financial consequences of any
kind of data and we act on what happens to the economy. >> what is the biggest worry for you doing your job now? is it what inflation is doing? what growth is doing internally? within the domestic bounds of the country or the world chi? is it a fed hike? is it elections? what is it? >> main concern is what happens toward trade which has been very subdued and obviously the importance of trade is great. they're worse in that respect. >> you received quite a lot of criticism on your intervention strategy and a lot of people aren't happy about buying hundreds of millions of u.s. dollars to try to protect exporters feeling the pension of
late reserves have gone up to shy of 100 billion or so. why stick to this policy instead of taking rates into negative territory as a lot of other central banks have done? >> first of all i think we're much more comfortable with the current level of reserves than with the 25 billion we had. >> we think that having negative inflation, i think the exchange rate is quite important. we have taken interest rate down to 0.1% and i think this is appropriate given inflation and the fact that we need to support the economy. so it's oed well. >> so it's not a quote from a market player saying something like the bank of israel against
the market? is that how you feel given these measures? >> i don't think that we're against the market and i think it works well for the country. >> they're not able to put them into banks because they can't open bank accounts. they have to put them into banks that are supposed to then be able to offer them to you. but you don't accept them. i know that stanley fisher is trying hard to make that happen are you accepting them? >> we are and we're working closely to make sure that correspondents relations and
they flow smoothly so we're working hard getting that. >> thank you for being with us governor. >> moving on the u.s. futures. that's all we have time for now. and the u.s. futures we are pointing a little bit higher. that's what we were looking at a couple of seconds ago so could be set for a pretty strong market open. >> and world markets live will be up and running from 5:00 a.m. tomorrow for special election coverage. head to cnbc.com for the latest news as it happens. we'll see you tomorrow. bye bye.
storming the nation in one final campaign push. politics in the markets. futures pointing to a start on wall street. the morning after the dow, s&p and nasdaq post their best performance since march. it's the day we have all been waiting for. tuesday november 8th. election day. worldwide exchange begins right now. ♪