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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 8, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EST

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business never sleeps, this is squawk box. >> good morning. welcome squawk box here on cnbc. we do have the music this morning here on election day. i'll andrew ross sorkin with joe kernan and melissa lee. joe is doing a little orchestration there. polls are opening in many states including connecticut, maine, new jersey, new york, virginia and parts of indiana and kentucky. you're looking now at a live shot from richmond vishlg virginia where vice presidential candidate tim kaine is casting his ballot. we have a busy morning of election coverage planned. pollsters business leaders and market watchers and reporters are spanning the country in battleground states including florida, ohio, arizona, colorado, pennsylvania and indiana and of course they'll bring us live reports throughout the day and then tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern don't miss it. cnbc's election night special
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gbis our decision zone will bring you live coverage from nbc affiliates across the country. real time news and analysis as the results come in but right now let's get you caught up on today's business stories as we get ahead. before we start this is a nice way to think about this. did you see this cover of the new york post today, vote for the one you dislike least. >> but that already irritated me. >> already irritated you. >> one is pro trump, one is pro clinton. for daily news, what do they get? stop the don con. they need to stop this lying orange facsist. so they get a total we hate -- do you get anything comparable on the other side. >> this is the objective version. >> yes. >> this one is i'm with her and all through it. they get a full throated endorsement for hillary with this tabloid. all you get here is pick the --
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>> so your gripe is with rupert. >> he has been a hillary person for awhile i think. month there's no correlary to the daily news anywhere. >> what about bright guard. >> i just heard it didn't matter. >> i didn't say that. in the context of our conversation let's not get into that right now please. >> how about the wall street journal editorial page. >> i guess that might be it. >> that could be the secret sauce from the election. >> i had an e-mail exchange yesterday with steve manning and asked him for his final prediction and he said i can't do it because we're too busy winning this baby. >> wow. >> that's the kind of -- well -- for a news organization. so maybe -- >> he has a weird role doesn't
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he? he's the campaign. >> he's obviously not a conventional campaign manager but he is somebody that has the -- channelled the same vibe that donald trump is trying -- >> but he actually has a position in the trump campaign where as the people at the new york times and other people don't have actual positions in the clinton campaign. >> yes. i hear you. >> sort of what, joe. say it. >> honorary. honorary positions. >> all right. >> you're looking at a live shot by the way of tim kaine casting his vote in virginia as we speak. there's a coup of things aside from the election. the monthly jolts or job openings and labor turnover survey. chicago fed president speaking at the council on foreign relations this morning and ubs event this afternoon. as for earnings look out for
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results from cbs health and home builder d.r. horton before the opening bell here. >> let's check on the markets this morning. most of the snap back yesterday obviously and i was surprised europe wasn't doing more this morning. they are supposedly collectively holding their breath over there as well. and flat on a lot of trades so we're getting back, call that flat after 380 points yesterday. there it is. that's what happened best day in the markets since march. those numbers were big on things like the nasdaq. get 100 points and it took the s&p all the way back above 2100 easily. there's transportation average up about 3%. that's what we saw 3%. kind of interesting that we're still not above that election indicator when it starts in august and ends at election day.
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we didn't make that yesterday. still down since august. so we'll see whether that holds on true. do you want to talk about -- here's europe. see you would think that they reflected some of the good sentiment yesterday but i thought they would have a little bit more catch up this morning than the 370 points. they're nervous i think. >> what is the difference between ketchup and catsup. do you know that? >> i don't have the slightest idea. >> no idea. >> nobody here does. >> does it matter?
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i saw on the ten year and that's changed and then the dollar i saw the euro at about 110 earlier and what was getting interesting over there. and moving forward we'll see what the supreme court -- >> and then the bureaucrats can can overrule whatever they do anyway. anyway, gold you would think in these uncertain times would be doing something. less than 1400. >> pharmaceuticals drug maker reporting above 55 a share and
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ceo says the company is making progress on its restructuring of operations and the recent weeks we have gotten words of reports that they're looking to sell various units of its businesses in order to raise assets here but in the extended hours v valeant is trading lower right now. >> time to get out and vote. for more on what you can expect john harwood joins us kicking off what will be a long day for you and all of us. >> we're going to test the power of these two coalitions that hillary clinton and donald trump are activated. he's strong among men and rural areas and clinton has a large
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lead and nonwhites. small erma joirty among hispanics but still large and one of the things in the early vote is the hispanic vote in nevada and florida being extraordinarily large and we're going to test and see whether or not the pollsters have got it right a four point spread in the polls. that is enough to win in any scenario. however if the polls are undercounting a surge of turn out for donald trump we could get a surprise. you look at the odds and puts it at 70%. new york times upshot puts it at 80%. other models have it higher than 80%. if you take the real clear average of battleground states and push them to give the winner who whoever has a fractional lead hillary clinton is at 727. donald trump is at 2666. it's all going to be tested
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tonight. >> a good idea of who is out on top by 8:00 tonight. 8:30. >> well, we'll have a better -- that's a huge thing of votes hillary clinton will need to get over the top. i think we will know who is going to be the president by 11:00 at night. >> where is the point?
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nbc. >> is it going to be a long day's journey. how long will you be? will you be here at 2:00 a.m. if you need to be. >> i'm sleeping at the studio. >> you'll be will as long as it takes. >> how long was that one election? >> that was too long. that was a nightmare. >> how long? do you remember? >> it went to early december
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until they finally pulled the plug. >> i don't think we're looking at that situation although florida is tight. >> no, florida is very tight. >> and we saw some weird -- let me introduce -- let's bring in elizabeth, four time u. s. congresswoman from new york. hillary clinton supporter and nan, former u.s. congresswoman and served for carly fiorina's campaign. watching yesterday was interesting for a couple of reasons and that was seeing hillary in michigan, wasn't it? >> well, i think it's smart strategy to gnat take anything for granted. she hit some of the really important states she has to be in. but michigan -- >> is she assuming ohio -- wasn't it weird not to go to michigan instead of ohio. >> the reason i went to michigan is michigan is not a state that has no excuse early voting.
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so they were doing yes it is closer and is it possible -- >> there's no early voting either. >> that's right but pennsylvania is more critical to donald trump strategy. that would be great if they could do it. but what hillary clinton was trying to do in that last rally in philadelphia was to galvanize both the vote in center city philadelphia and also the suburban vote which he is hoping will swamp vote in western pennsylvania. >> you know, nan. >> she is hoping. >> yeah. yeah. >> hillary is going to count on big turn out in suburban areas of philadelphia because there's a lot of women there who resent donald trump's treatment of women. >> there's been some questions about the african american turn out and for that reason i think she has focused differently.
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>> there's reason for them to be con certained about softness in the african american turn out. th obama attracted extraordinary african american turn out and more than 90% of the vote. now it is true that it's been trending up as the democratic party increasingly has focused on that group and what was notable as 2012 was that african american turn out was higher than white turn out as a percentage of the eligible vote. is that going to be true for hillary clinton? i doubt it. she has to compensate elsewhere. >> the interesting point is i don't think her campaign is assuming that she is going to get the same level of enthusiasm as obama got as a first african american candidate for president. >> she had a lot of guns to turn out, springsteen, bon jovi.
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>> and then tim kaine. not the same. >> no but he got a couple of dozen. >> and donald he had ted nugent. >> yeah. >> and somebody else. >> i listened to ted in high school. >> yeah. he's a controversial character at this point. >> beyonce jay-z. >> were any laities listening to jay-z. >> this is my question for you. >> a little dubious there. >> beyonce, jay-z, gaga, springsteen. which most tempts you to vote for hillary clinton? >> none. >> donald trump was talking
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about tom brady last night. >> belichick. >> i don't understand -- >> do you have a problem with tom brady? >> i have no problem. i'm just suggesting. i don't understand why one -- deflategate is over. >> it's the exception of the rule. you have scott in hollywood. 95% approval in hollywood. if you get one you have to use brady and belichick. >> you said the whole thing is ridiculous. >> comparable on both sides. >> what is this election about? it's about the people that work in this country. it's about the people that deserve tun and jobs. >> i have a question about hillary clinton i have been wanting to ask the entire campaign and i'm reminded because i'm with an event with your former colleague on the committee and i grew up in high school watching others during the impeachment process donald trump says hillary clinton's
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misconduct is worse than nixon and i'd like to get your take on that. >> first of all president nixon accused the power of his office as presidency and so there's no real question about not only his abuse of power but criminal activity. and also the abuse of power. and also his political opponents. i was don't have any evidence whatsoever, the fbi has done a thorough job of any criminality of hillary clinton nor do we know that she harmed the
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american people to use the power to go after political opponents. that's what richard nixon did. he used his pow tore go after political opponents. to audit their taxes and survey them and look at secret conversations and so forth. hillary didn't do any of those things so to compare them. that's typical donald trump. he is low on the facts. >> you accept that as case closed? >> i was thinking about an 18 minute gap in a tape versus 33,000 e-mails. anyway -- >> 20% of america's uranium belongs to russia because of what hillary clinton did on behalf of a donor to the clinton foundation. >> selling out is -- >> can you tell you about ketchup and catsup. it says refers to an area of
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china and they were different when they were imported here and heinz made it tomato based. >> that is awesome information gathering power. >> ketchup an catsup. >> it doesn't have to be tomato. >> thank you congresswomen. thank you. >> thank you. >> and it's a respite from what we have done for the last year and continue to do here. >> don't forget to vote. >> markets in focus following yesterday's 371 rally in the dow and we'll talk about what to exapproximae expect as the results come in. stay tuned.
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>> joining us now is the global head of investment strategy and chief investment officer which is more than $219 billion in assets under management. great to have you with us. i'll start off with you. we had a massive move and it brings us back to levels we saw
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7 trading sessions ago but is this going to be the ultimate sell of the new sort of event? >> i think it pulled forward the expectation of what the market was hoping for. it's interesting if you look back i think it was around october 18th when the poll numbers started to change for each of the candidates. essentially it was a risk off market. investors weren't getting the outcome that they hoped for and now that it looks like that's going to come to pass you had a reversal of that. i don't think they're going to retest those lows with the earnings news coming out the way it is. ended higher than where we are right now. >> you're looking at 21 to 25. which is maybe 60 points to the upside. >> it's higher than where we are right now. for a year mid single digit returns. not great but not bad. >> is that a clinton call? >> i think that's what the market is expecting. >> which is a clinton call.
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>> that's exactly right. >> when you take a look at yesterday's rally what was curious to me is that everything rallied across the board. it wasn't necessarily to me a clinton rally. if you had a clinton rally why would health care be so strong and lead the markets. how did you interpret yesterday's move. was it a divided hillary clinton and divided congress kind of rally? >> well, since it came out it's always been about divided congress and potential for trump winning so i think that we price that out yesterday. at least the potential for trump winning and that's why you saw the correlated rally. and change the direction of the way things are going. >> what do you do now though?
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>> what do you see for the end of the year? and how do -- how does it factor into that at all? >> from an economic perspective the data is far clearer than elections perhaps. >> and the at a at a really is not u.s. as much as it is from china. the growth impulse coming from china will support the market's global economy for the next 6 to 12 months and that is what is going to drive the markets far more than anything else. >> china will draw the markets. >> absolutely. because of the growth impulse in china emerging market growth is doing better and in-turn u.s. dproeth is much better as well. >> do you agree with that? >> yeah at the margin yes. but the north star for us over the last several years when the u.s. economy has these bouts of concerns of whether we were going to slow was the middle market of this country. that's where all the commercial activity is and the jobs are created and viewing it from that
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lenses, market in the united stat states. you're looking at an environment there where things were made and pretty good health. they're all quite good. so from an economic perspective i think we're in pretty good shape. it's important to remember, look, every four years we make this incredible exercise or representing a democracy. from a market standpoint markets are remarkably bipartisan in their ability to produce returns. if you go back to 1990 -- excuse me, 1900, both parties republican or democrat they produce over the course of their terms they tend to produce on positive returns. somewhere between -- >> so the bottom line is you're saying that we shouldn't pay attention to these elections because the markets will have positive return nos matter what. >> yeah.
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>> is that what you're saying also? >> there's truth so that. markets are probably going to do better over the next 2 to 4 years for example irrespective of who isn't in power in the u. s. the point he's making with respect to the u. s. economy is a good one. u.s. economy is stable but at the margin what has changed over the last six months is not the change in direction in the u.s. economy it's that the stimulus driven growth in china man you fe manifested in a big way. that's why the markets are due in the next 6 to 12 months. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. >> okay when we come back battleground state of florida. a live report from the sunshine state on a day that could set state records for total number of ballots cast. plus you may remember bruce from my trip to atlanta in october. exec withdrew tif director of the national diversity coalition for trump and he is here in new york to join us here on the set
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to talk about this election day. we'll be back with him and a lot more in just a moment.
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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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>> i want you to know and spread the word i want to be president for all americans. not just the people that support me. i want to be president for everyone. we all have a role to play in building that better future for our country and for each of you. >> the corrupt politicians and their special interests have ruled over this country for a very long time. today is hour independence day.
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today the american working glass is going to strike back finally. welcome back to squawk box here on election day where we have coverage all day here on cnbc. that was the final appeal to voters and north carolina ohio and west virginia just opening right now go out and vote and take a good look at u.s. equity futures at this hour after a very big day yesterday at the markets. >> florida nailed the element of this entire race. it seems like it does often. the last couple of elections.
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she joins us now with an early read on voting there and it's so close that we had such an early sign of what was going on if you could tell but sometimes it takes weeks. >> i was there and the polls open in just under half an hour here but half of florida's registered voters will not vote today. that's because they have already voted. early voting here ended sunday night and more than 6 million cast their ballots either in person or by absentee ballot. that's a record and that's more than the total final 4.9 million votes cast by registered voters in 2,000. you remember that one bush versus gore. floridians will never forget that epic election. that ended in the u.s. supreme court. perhaps that's why so many voters headed out to the polls early. hispanic voters are the real
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headline though but they came out in force early. the number of early hispanic voters is right around the total hispanic vote in 2012. so if only half voted so far that share is going to be up 100% and that could be a boost for hillary clinton given donald trump's strong stance against illegal immigration. given the early voting here you have to believe voter turn out in the end today is going to be very hot, joe. >> thank you. we have speem spread out all over. don't we? >> you have florida. >> we have people have got to say. >> that's awesome. congrats. >> he knows the right people. the list of final starts. donald trump also targeted florida and new hampshire in the
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race. bruce is executive director of national diversity coalition for trump. we should mex the group is unaffiliated with the trump campaign but you're a good friend of that campaign and we appreciate you being here. we hung out together in atlanta and we were just talking about florida. there's a beat down and tonight is not going to go long. >> it's not. the fact that when you look at the particular voter block in florida. georgia we're neighboring and we have a lot of friends there is that a lot of people that got hurt in the financial crash, their 401k, a lot of housing they put their life savings in they're looking for a champion, andrew and donald trump is that champion. he's a guy that can come in and understands the checkbook with the $20 trillion deficit. the things that those voters went through. they're looking for someone that can, you know what, here's one of our guys that can fight for
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us. a lot of distrust in that financial market that went down. the other thing too is the voters down at the clinton foundation that had some very bad situations as it relates to what went on in haiti. very strong voter block. >> what do you make of the news that there's a larger hispanic vote coming out in support of clinton that we thought. just coming out period and that that favors clinton. >> i disagree respectfully and i was speaking in the break room earlier is that there is a big strong silent majority that we're discounting and like i said back in atlanta this is not the traditional play book for this candidate. you can't take a traditional play book and say this is how we're going to do it. especially when you're polling african americans and hispanics. you're not going to get a clear, well should i say a clear answer
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on who i'm going to vote for. there's no way to engage this in a traditional play book. the other recent news is that the african americans are not expected to come out the same force they did for obama this time. >> it's dead on the other side. it's crooked on that side of the camp but the good thing i like about what's going on is that no republican candidate ever spoke so strong and the african american community is like wham and called into question the democratic rule in these cities that have not done a good job so it's a fair question to ask so the other thing too we like to say keeping it real. trump keeps it real. >> in fairness though another african american i was with yesterday said to me i can't vote for him. he's a racist. >> like i said on one grounds. >> donald trump said about african american people period.
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>> you don't think some of the comments that you made in detroit. >> in terms of the language around they're not racist comments per say. >> there isn't any. we're trying to put something into something and make ourse ourselves justified. >> the lawsuit against him and his father when he was president of the housing project. these things don't bother you? >> no, his dad, you know it wasn't justified but here's the other thing too, black guy, here i am, 50 plus years. i know what the klan looks like and it was so unfair and unjust to take that particular group and trying to push it into create a narrative on mr. trump. ivanka is jewish. jared. michael cohen a good friend of mine that started the coalition. jewish. dad was a holocaust survivor. i know what that's like as a
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child where my mom couldn't go to the restroom in the 60s because of our color. so to take that radical movement and put it in. that's totally unfair. that was out of bounds. >> one of the problems we have is education in inner city areas and oall of t read the newspapers. it's something that we need to work on in a big way. poverty and education but then when he talks about it the detroit and talks about the -- that it's not a fair playing field, suddenly it's that he's eck tr extrapo extrapolating it. it hasn't been in a lot of cities. >> you don't need to convince me. >> but how do you take that from talking about actually calling it like it s how do you get to racism from that? that's what i don't understand.
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how those are racist comments. >> no, that was melissa's point. your point was what he said about give me a shot. >> i know a number of african americans after the comment in detroit that felt that that was racist. there are people that it shall i'm not the only person that's ever said this to you. >> right. but the need to address -- we need to work on that. we need to work on what happens in urban areas for education. >> do you have friends who tell you this and you have to persuade them or convince them otherwise. >> i have a lot of friends that look like me that can't come out -- there's only a hand full of us that are bold enough to come out and say who we're for and that's why i say that people of color are not giving up on this but here's a very successful business person that has the most diverse group in the history of any republican
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candidate. >> no one has ever had that. and really, we're just regular business people. >> isn't that a sign of the times to have a diverse group. >> but why don't the other 17 candidates have that? that's my whole point here. kasich and all the other guys. they didn't have an 8th of what we have in our infrastructure in terms of diversity. muslim americans spoke at the rnc convention. >> so will your vote show that diversity of still white uneducated males? >> no it will and after four years when we get reelected we'll be up about 20 plus percent in the american vote but in four more years watch what is going to happen. watch the delegates in four more years in the rnc convention this time. you're going to be like oh my gosh. wow. so i'm very optimistic. coming from a guy that's not
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paid. that's not linked to anything. one thing too about all of our surrogates for trump we're not promising anything. there's no deals with none of us. we're independent thinkers and independent business people. this is why we're here. i flew up here to see you on my dime. >> do you want to stay? just with me. i get tired. i do. anyway. >> bruce we appreciate it. >> thank you for coming out. >> exhausting. >> stay here for a second. we're going to go to commercial break. >> a closer look at the weather forecast in battleground states. an update from the weather channel as we head to break and put a check on what's happening in european markets right now. a mixed bag here. ftse though managing at .10%. squawk box will be right back.
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♪ welcome back. time now for the executive edge. we're going to start with stocks to watch. shares of hertz slammed after reporting third quarter earnings and revenue that missed
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forecasts and company also slashing it's full year profit outlook and expects to take a hit from higher depreciation rates on its vehicles so it's not as simple as how is the rental business. there's a lot that goes on to it inchuding including resales and all down 33% and news corp. with a loss and the owner and publisher of the wall street journal. the new york post. hold your nose on the cover today and dow jones news wire saw an 11% decline in ad revenue. down 21%. >> change in times. >> unbelievable. >> toyota second quarter operating profit fell 43% hurt by the strong yen. the auto maker is more exposed to currencies. the japanese currency than most of the japanese rival. raising a profit outlook for the year.
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>> right now a check on the election day forecast and jen has an update. >> on this election day we have a front that divides the country from the great lakes all the way down to the south. this front will bring rain today although it will be moving from west to east throughout the day. so morning rain in places like illinois, indiana, rain midday. showers getting in ohio by the end of the day here so go out and vote early. east coast with a lot of high pressure and a lot of mild temperatures actually and in the west that's the story of the warmth. record warmth in the northwest including washington state and california is very warm today and hot in southern california. let's talk north carolina. nice and mild conditions. temperatures hit 70s in charlotte. no rain in the forecast. we'll have a dry day although starting on a cool note in the morning so the temperatures changing from morning to afternoon. if you're going to vote and voting early you'll need the jacket there. the umbrellas by the end of the day here in ohio.
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we have the rain moving in and then a look at your forecast in arizona where conditions look nice and sunny and warm. temperatures hitting 90s in phoenix going 89 degrees of sunshine today. that's your election day forecast. >> i don't know why you can't do that report from arizona. you can be anywhere. that looked nice. 84. dry heat. sounds good. coming up the election impact on the markets. mark grant tells us where you should invest depending on which candidate that you think will win. we'll have mark grant now and jim grant later. no amy grant. we'll be right back. >> still to come bill david. former governor john angler president of the business round table. market watcher jim grant and live updates from our reporters across the country. squawk box election day coverage continues after this quick break.
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welcome back to "squawk box." we are hours away from know ing who the next president will be. hopefully. joining us now, mark grant
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managing director at hilltop holdings. that's another question for maybe another time, mark, but you think we'll know early, late tonight, by tomorrow? or one of those crazy situations we saw a few years back and bush/gore? >> i think it's going to be tonight, joe. i think we may find a brexit america style which will be impactful on the markets. >> pretty amazing. i read your stuff where you were saying that you thought trump was going to win. and then the fbi letter came out and i looked at what i thought was mark grant comments and i'm like -- and it was saying hillary this and hillary that. and it was jim grant in the notes who's going to be on later. so you -- even with everything that's happened and all the
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polling and everything else, you still -- you think the brexit sentiment could make donald trump our next president? you believe that? >> i do. and i'll tell you why. i think that very few americans are voting for anyone. i think most american are voting against someone. and consequently when you get in that mood, it's like being in the bleachers at yankees stadium. people are going to vote to throw the bums out. and i think on a deductive basis, we may find that by the end of the day. the markets rallied yesterday. the markets want stability. i think they prefer clinton most institutions would prefer clinton. but i think there's a decent possibility we may get a big surprise by the end of this evening. >> that's pretty interesting. all right. so you're on record and that takes serious -- i mean, that takes serious guts to say that, mark.
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but let's assume that you're right. and what happens with what -- how people should position themselves? should you sell stocks today? should you buy health care? i mean, what are you telling people? >> okay. let's -- joe, you and i have known each other for years. let's leave all the fluff aside. what the real issue is in my mind is that trump is in favor of the fracking industry which is american oil which means we could be self-dependent and not have to give money to iran and iraq and these other countries that are clearly opposed to our way of life. and i'm in favor of that notion. i think he's in favor of the energy companies in the united states. the other big issue is he wants to reduce corporate taxes to 15%. and if you think that through, it would be a tremendous boom nor corporate in the united states. maybe not day one or day four,
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but it's going to drive stock prices higher in my opinion. >> after -- most people -- i don't know. consensus thinking they'll be -- i don't know. you hear thousand point drop if trump is elected. but i mean, is that possible? and you would use that to buy, then, i assume? or you're not sure there would be a big break. >> yeah, i would use any drop to buy in the equity markets. i think interest rates are a question in here because, you know, and you and i have discussed this before. it's not just the fed that's influencing american interest rates at this point. it's the bank of japan, it's the ecb. it's become a global issue. and we're just going to have to see on that. but i do think a trump win ultimately is very positive for the equity markets. >> so you're in florida. do you -- you don't know any more than anyone else that lives down there, obviously. but what do you got to win if you're trump? the corridor up near tampa that
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runs east to west? what are they talking about? >> yeah, the northern part of our state, joe, is much more republican and certainly where i live ft. lauderdale which is a democratic part of the state. i think a lot of this is going to depend on who actually -- and i think this is true nationwide -- who comes out and votes. i think if the millennials stay home or people that are agitated stay home, then you're going to get a different result. and we'll just have to see by the end of the evening. >> all right. mark grant, thank you. appreciate it. >> thank you, joe. okay. coming up, "squawk box" election day coverage continuing. bill daley's going to join us after the break. he served as president obama's chief of staff. then former michigan governor john engler is going to join us. he's the current president of the business round table. "squawk box" will return in a moment. whether it's bringing cutting-edge wifi to 35,000 fans...
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or keeping a hotel's guests connected. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink.
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so it's now officially tuesday, november 8. >> it's election day. and donald trump and hillary clinton are battling to the very end. >> we've never had a clearer choice. never. >> stocks coming off their biggest rally since march. we have a lineup of business leaders and strategists to break down what's next for the markets and the economy as polls open around the country. >> plus the buckeye ballot. a live report from must-win ohio and the latest poll numbers from the battleground state. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box."
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>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and melissa lee. there is some -- that's it. that's what it is. i keep spacing on this. it's election day. right? i knew there was something big happening today. polls are opening around the country. including in ohio. what lucky person got to go there? my home state. we're going to have a live report from the buckeye state in just a few minutes. in the meantime, let's get a check on the futures which are flat. i don't know what i'd think if i were trying to predict what was happening. it was a big day yesterday. i guess i'd stay flat today maybe just in case. >> flat or sell. >> and in europe, not a whole lot of confidence on which way things are headed either, i think, electionwise or who knows with the economy. we got so many things to determine whether equity prices are cheap, expensivexpensive, o just right. there's europe.
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and we will talk about the election. we can't avoid it. because it also is a special edition -- >> special election day edition of "squawk box." >> of "squawk box" and cnbc today. >> is there you go. >> there you go. right at the i thinker tips of the -- would that be the technical direct their does that? the director calls for it. do you know how that works? >> i have no idea. it's behind the curtain. >> oh! >> and the more we play that, the more special this edition of "squawk box" is. >> agreed. >> just to continue on that theme, we have much more election day coverage ahead. but before we do that, let's tell you about today's top corporate story. shares of valeant pharmaceuticals under some pressure. the drug maker missed estimates on the top and bottom lines. it cut its full year forecast as well. also small business sentiment edged higher. says monthly index rose to 94.9% back in september. and tesla's buying german
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engineered firm for an undisclosed amount. it will rename it tesla groman engineering. ohio is a must-win state for the next president of the united states. and our own brian sullivan joins us from centerville. morning, bri. >> good morning, everyone. we're here at bill's doughnuts. named world's best doughnuts by a magazine. who knew. as ohio so goes the country. they say that for good reason. ohio has not correctly predicted the president only twice. 1944 and 1960. in the last six elections we had obama, obama, bush, bush, clinton, clinton. so ohio has had a roll through. it's an interesting state as you know. it is a very big states.
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it's also a very geographically centered state. if you look at a map of the results, there are 88 counties in ohio. only 16 of them went to president obama in 2012 but that was enough for victory. so you can see the majority of the state does lean to the right. the population centers, cleveland, columbus, cincinnati. joe, you might have heard of cincinnati. toledo and also around here. tend to go democrat as well. again, we're going to find out. we were happy to get here last night. little bit late, but we got here last night. went out to a local bar. we asked people who they were going to vote for. i tell you there is a lot of pro-trump sentiment here. here's four different views. >> it's important to me to have someone i can trust. can i trust trump more than hillary? >> i want somebody that's honest. trump is not perfect. i agree to that. but at least he seems to be, you know, an honest person overall
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because they can't find anything on him. >> it's trust and integrity. and, you know, hillary clinton -- i mean, it's documented by the fbi that she has broken laws and she's not being punished. >> trump's going to take care of the fed. he's going to do a lot of great things. honestly, she's in the pocket of wall street and all these big corporations. just all the lies, crookedness, i'm done with it. >> and this is obviously a state that donald trump thinks he will win, pretty much needs to win. like i said, electoral -- 18 electoral votes. sop it is a big state. important state. we'll be here all day. we'll do "power lunch" live from dayton, get more views. we did a poker chip poll last night. we gave people red chips and blue chips and a third party chip. we'll unveil that and see if it matches up with some of the other polls. you know the polls out there,
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you know, historically off by a couple of percent. it could be an interesting day today. >> every four years we try to come to grips with that, don't we? it's like, you see four points and it just seems -- three or four points, it's like it's cast in stone and there's no way around it. do we get better at it? i would think that you get -- >> joe, i have two words for you. eric cantor. eric cantor had basically a 60% chance of winning going down to virginia on the republican side and lost to somebody nobody had heard of. so the electorate, the folks behind us here could surprise you. >> yeah 52-48 to stay was the poll. then they left 52. it's like an eight-point swing. i looked out -- centerville i'm familiar with but i forgot exactly where it was. i wondered if it's in the center of ohio. it's not. it's in the good farther -- part of ohio. you're just south of dayton, right? >> yeah.
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i'm in courtney reagan's hometown. it is her birthday today. my wife went to school south of here. we'll be in ohio, extremely important state. i think has the highest per capita percentage of cnbc on-air talent of any state. you, eisen, reagan, carl claimed he came here once. i don't know. >> i know those people, brian. and down there, that's trump country. i can tell you can that. >> and they're not family, joe. they're kin. it's a difference. >> exactly right. i still talk to people. i go back there once in awhile. it wasn't surprising those four people you spoke to. up here, it's a little different. at 6th and 51st street in new york city. anyway, have fun, brian. you're in god's country. you're a lucky man. let's bring in secretary bill daley. he also serve ed for al gore.
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you got that big city. it is big. although it is the second city, as you know. >> no. those of us who live here don't believe that, joe. you know from living in new york that the difficulties of new york. we don't have those. anyway, great day. >> if i can talk about other things for awhile, i can keep you off the subject. how about these cubbies, dude? everybody felt good. everybody was happy in the whole country. >> and as a strong white sox fan, i am even really happy about the cubs. it's about time. they have a great team, great owners, ricketts has done a hell of a job with the team. theo epstein, joe maddon, it's a great group. they had fun. and the country enjoyed getting away from the negativity of this last many, many months if not years of campaigning. >> i know. >> as jerry ford said, maybe our long american nightmare is over today. >> god, some day. hopefully it will be. >> hopefully. >> exactly.
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just the ratings and everything else, baseball, man. there's nothing like a seventh game in sports, i don't think. >> no. it was a great series. it really was. it's simple. baseball is great fun for families. i think it was a terrific break for america having to deal with these campaigns and all the commercials. the only problem is they didn't put baseball on without commercials. if it didn't have commercials, it would have been much better. >> we like commercials around here. >> i know, i know. >> so when you -- i'm sure you got a lot of connections with the campaign and the dnc and everything else. give us honestly what you think the real strong points are and where there's some concern. because i thought it was interesting that michigan -- i'm not sure it's in play, but it seemed to be with secretary clinton going there. and pennsylvania i thought was a done deal too. what do you think is really happening? >> well, michigan always closes
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up. i remember back in 2000 in the gore/bush race. michigan closes up at the end. everyone gets nervous because there's a split. rural versus urban. we saw that even in 2000 where we were running resources up to michigan. people were in a bit of a panic in the end. and i think michigan is a state that is divided. obviously no like much of the country is. so i don't put a lot of extra effort into the fact that people are look at michigan over the last couple of days because it happens generally every four years. if pennsylvania was to go a different way than democratic, then that's the break in the wall. i don't see it. people feel confident about pennsylvania. no doubt trump has struck a chord in much of rural
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pennsylvania. but i think in the end, pennsylvania stays strong and democratic. that's all fire wall for hillary clinton. florida is the one obviously closes early went through this 16 years ago. people predicting all over. your last guest was right. northern florida as you know is very republican. the other urban parts, there's been a demographic shift in florida. much more hispanic. but you're going to -- the thing to watch today is how big of a turnout over four years ago which was about 125 million people nationwide is there and how do you interpret that? i think some of that will be obviously trump and an excitement he's created. but you also have a strong organization out in the field to get people early voting. and i think you'll see it today with a really good operation on the ground in many of these states. that may be trumped -- i hate to
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play off that. it may be trumped off the enthusiasm of the trump voters. which is obvious. they hung with him through much. most of the data has shown that hillary has held much of what makes her campaign strong right now. and that is college educated white women and that -- and hispanics obviously overwhelmingly voting for her. those are the two factors that you'll see shift. >> kbil, if hillary clinton wins, what happens afterwards? if you were her chief of staff, what's your briefing to her look like about the first hundred days are really like? >> well, you know, it takes two to tango. so there's two questions. one obviously would she try to start to do at the end which is hard because i think there's a nervousness down to the end here. you've got to bring this country together. i know it sounds maybe pollya a pollyannaish, but this hate has
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got to end. i'm not sure how. i think she has to start with that tonight if she wins with her acceptance speech. and whoever loses, we'll see how they deal with it and what their followers do. and then what happens to the republican party leadership? what happens in the next month before congress leaves? do they try to do a budget? move forward on anything? or is there a serious challenge to ryan? >> what can she actually say if she wants to sort of mend fences? i mean, isn't the trump vote been anti-establishment vote? what is she going say? we're going to blow up what we're doing and go the other way? >> no. but she's got to acknowledge, i hear what you say. those 45% or 44% of americans who don't vote for her, she's got to reach out to them. then she's got to do that when
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she gets to washington very quickly. so i think the stronger the trump vote is, the larger the vote is. the more it is imperative that she does that. and she's going to have to do that beyond words tonight which are fine. and everybody will celebrate the end of this thing. but then she's got to move quickly with symbolic and real things. this is a divided country. she's not going to get nor are her allies going to get everything they may want and they talked about in the election. and the other side is not going to, you know, walk away and say i hope taking our ball and wait four more years and go through this craziness again. i think it's imperative and i say this as someone who's been involved at the white house and campaigns that all of us, the media included really take a look at ourselves after this election. and you all helping whoever wins, donald trump sure. i don't want to see donald trump win, but if he wins we only have one president. and we either try to pull
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together or we're all going to collapse together. i think we're at a tipping point in this country we have got to try. i think we've got some enormous problems that we can't just blame the other side and say we don't want to play here. they're going to have to reach out if she wins to ryan and to the trumpites in ways and trump people and trump himself. if he loses in my opinion has to accept that outreach. or else we're just continuing this craziness. >> you know, there's a lot for where second city comes from. part of it is because of the great fire. and that was do over. but that's not the original one. it used to be in terms of population and everything else -- and you know what else, bill? the windy city, it's not because it's windy. in cincinnati -- for cincinnati papers it meant that you were
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full of bluster and just full of wind. that's where -- >> talk about full of wind, joe. jeepers. come on. give me a break. >> the windy studio. all right. thanks, bill. >> take care, guys. coming up when we return, pollsters getting ready to watch the results roll in. the race closer now than in the past couple of weeks. we'll break down the latest in the presidential race and congressional races when we come back in a moment. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. hey, jesse.
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the 2016 election has been a wild ride since the start. and tonight promises to be the same. joining us is linda lake and michael robert. guys, great to have you with us. selinda, i'll start it off with you. there are people out there who say the polls have not been an accurate read. do you acknowledge maybe that the old fashioned ways aren't really capturing the votes for trump, perhaps, and that isn't represented in the polls out there currently? >> there have been some -- a lot of volatility in the polls. that's why i think most of us rely on the averages of the polls. and all the polls right now show
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hillary clinton ahead. but it's not the national polls that really count. "fas it's the polls in individual battleground states. that adds some unpredictability. the other thing we see is for awhile we did see a hidden trump vote that when we were doing online surveys, trump was doing slightly better than when we were doing phone surveys. we saw some of the same phenomena in other elections, for example, barack obama actually did less well in online surveys than he did in phone surveys. but that effect has kind of gone away now. and as you saw earlier in your own show, the trump voters are pretty self-confident about saying they're for trump. so i think the polls are going to be pretty accurate as we come down to the finish line. >> michael, do you agree with a the? we're looking at the polls. >> yeah, i think -- i've never met a shy trump voter. but apparently they exist. look, what happened is you had a lot of people that were on the
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fence that came home to donald trump in the republican party. and they were sitting in that undecided chunk of the electorate as well as sitting in the johnson vote. the johnson vote is has decreased. you've seen donald trump's numbers rise. and so that reservoir of votes is there for him. and i think there's a little bit more there that will make election night a little bit closer. than we've seen in the kind of four, five range that we've seen in the national polls. >> celinda in terms of your research, where will you focus your attention tonight not just for the presidential election but within that particular state, the down ballot effect? >> that's a really good question. so there are three things i'll we'll be looking at. one will be turnout. because that's still particularly for democrats more of a challenge and there's no question that the whole fbi thing depressed turnout for a little bit. but we've also had record number of early votes cast including
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for the democrats. so we'll be looking at the turnout. the second thing we'll be looking at is the midwest. is this midwest strategy going to work? i'm skeptical that donald trump can win a minnesota or even a michigan. and then there are several routes to victory for hillary clinton. there's really only one route to victory for donald trump. >> we're running out of time. micah, i want to get your take on the states you're watching tonight in particular. >> absolutely. ohio, iowa of course, michigan, pennsylvania and wisconsin. and that's because of the down scale or working class white vote in those states. they have traditionally had a democrat tilt. and i think trump has worked so hard to rouse that base that it will be really interesting to see how those voters specifically vote in those states. >> all right. thanks so much. >> thank you. >> thank you. coming up, the other grant.
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jim grant will be on set to discuss the election's impact on the market. "squawk box" will be right back. whether it's connecting one of the world's most innovative campuses. or bringing wifi to 65,000 fans.
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welcome back to "squawk
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box." a few stocks to watch ahead of the open on wall street. marriott, third quarter profit tumbled thanks to acquisition of starwood hotels. revenue rose. marriott is forecasting third quarter down. priceline's third quarter rose after a boost by hotel bookings. that stock opened a new 52-week high in open. and gap fell in october due to the impact at its distribution center in new york state in august. there was a bright spot for the retailers. coming up, it is election day. up next we're going to head to indiana to talk jobs and the economy. residents in the state are heading to the polls. it's often a bellwether on how many people about the economy this time of the season. that and more ahead. it is election day and
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"squawk box" is getting ready for poll results. still coming, john engler, libby cantrell, ian bremmer, and jim yurin. all morning on "squawk box." stick around.
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welcome back to "squawk box." among the stories front and center, shares of cvs are taking a pound k this morning. quarterly profit $1.64 per share but revenue was short of estimates and cut forecast on slowing prescription sales. down 13% right now. xerox's board has approved the split into two companies. shareholders will get one share of the company known as
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conduent. >> no one can say it. what is it? >> conduent. >> come on. >> how else would you pronounce that? >> you would. but it sounds like conduit. >> that's the connection. >> exxon did it and nobody had two x's together. >> it worked. >> i always told you. if this doesn't work, landor associates. they're a branding company. >> you had the ceo of tronc on and didn't say one thing to him. >> about the name. >> didn't say one thing. >> that horrible name. >> i think we asked him last time he was here. >> tronc! >> what was it? like from the great minds of venator comes tronc. >> run, it's tronc! >> what it is tribune? >> online something. >> it means something. i'm not defending it. but we gave him a hard time last
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time. >> we did. >> when he was here last time. >> he didn't change it. >> he didn't change it since we saw him. >> they changed venater thank god. >> makes no sense. anyway -- >> uh-oh. >> we're going to skip the entire thing about xerox and the shareholders. anyway. >> who needs united airlines? let's call it allegis. primearica. anyway. indiana may be considered a safe state for the gop on election night, but it's also a bellwether. >> short for tribune online content. >> that's right. >> you don't always make it the initials and it comes out right. no, no. that says tronc. don't do that. that won't work. no. they said yeah. but it's also a bellwether for how many of the voters feel in the midwest about the economy.
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interesting phil. i thought it was hyperbole that there were more government jobs than manufacturing jobs. but there are 9 million more government jobs than -- it's like 21 million to 12 million. unbelievable. phil joins us from tarahote. >> joe, you grew up in cincinnati so you know this entire part of the country. these cities depend on manufacturing. and after the last recession, they got hit hard and for many of these cities there's a feeling that they've been left behind as the economy has started to come back. take a look at this. in terms of the weekly average hourly wage and how much people are bringing in per week in these different parts of the country, look where vigo county, it's less than the state of indiana overall and well below
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the u.s. average. now, we talked to a few people in town. yesterday we were at a polling place. strong turnout. people were waiting more than an hour to vote. they've had record early voting turnout here. here in terre haute is higher -- donald trump was here during the campaign earlier this year. one reason he came here? because this is a conservative part of the state. a state that is expected to go to the republican party. business leaders here said it's all about giving people a sense they can grow and they can come back. >> everybody wants prosperity. i believe that's what they're voting for. they want something dramatic to happen so they can have prosperity. >> take a look at this.
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this is manufacturing jobs in terre haute. but over the last two or three years, nothing. it's starting to trend lower. smaller cities like this do not have a diversified enough economy so that when people have been laid off if they don't have education beyond high school, there are not the jobs that people are looking for. and it wasn't hard, you guys, to go very far outside of terre haute who were saying donald trump is going to shake things up. that's why we're for them. the other reason we're here in terre haute, if you go back to '88 whichever candidate it selects it has correctly picked the president all but two times since 1888. the last time this county went for somebody who didn't win was 1952 was adley stevenson. >> who's it going to go for? don't tell us that. you don't know yet, do you? >> we don't know yet. i have to be honest with you, while this tends to be a
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conservative area. and we talked with a lot of trump supporters in this area, we also spoke to people who are for hillary clinton. it'll be interesting to see. my guess is this is conservative, i wouldn't be surprised if it goes for donald trump. wouldn't be surprised if it goes for hillary clinton either. >> good answer, phil. that number is fascinating. we've all season towns, former hay day towns and it's heart breaking. those factories are closed down. you don't want to get up in the morning if you live there. it's bad. thanks. >> there is a palpable sense they're being left behind in this economy. they're not seeing the growth the rest of the country is seeing. >> all right, phil. thank you. >> thank you. let's talk jobs and trade this election season. john engler is the former governor of michigan and
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president of the business round table. we welcome him to the conversation this morning. >> thank you were much. >> i know that your group doesn't endorse anybody, but this is basically your last chance if you want to -- >> break the precedent, right? >> for all of the business folks out there that do follow the round table and follow your lead, can you at least hint to us, what happens, can i do anything to get you to give us a little bit of a hint of the way at least you're thinking about about all of this? >> well, i think i've been pretty clear that what we're interested in and certainly the ceos and i think business leaders of companies large and small want to see economic growth. i thought phil's story is a perfect leadin is a perfect story of why it's -- wikileaks gave another part of the numbers nay threw up. bill clinton speaking in canton, ohio, said 84% of the people
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haven't had a 1% increase in pay since the '08-'09 recession. that's why people are unhappy. they talk about job creation. there's so many jobs a lot of people have to have two or three of them. that's not the kind of economy we'd like to see. and we believe there are things that can be done with leadership in washington to get tax reform. we have differences with the presidential candidates on trade. we think immigration, energy policy, all of those things matter. and at the same time phil touched on something that i think is really important. and the next president whoever it is is going to have to deal with. and that is how do we skill that workforce and get them trained so they can work in a 21st century economy. i grew up in one of those small towns. and it's amazing the impact that's going on. >> who'd you say? hillary or trump? after all that, i'm still listening -- let me ask you this, engler.
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>> don't let him off the hook. >> i'm not. >> i can't be like harwood. i can't have a side. >> oh, god. you're a -- for yourself. you're not a business round table person now. okay? just for a second. >> well, i won't be if i go down this path. >> what about you john engler, who are you going to vote for? >> well, i did vote. i talked to my brother up in michigan this morning. he tried to -- >> who are you voting for? >> he's voting for trump. he said trump is going to win michigan. i have two brothers up there. he thinks both will get trump. the parking lot was so full when he went. they're jammed up. i think there's a reason michigan -- it reminds me of 1990 when i won that state after never leading in a single poll going into election day. and we surprised everyone. michigan has that potential. that's why you saw these
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candidates all finishing there. >> i gave up on you endorsing anyone. >> i'm switzerland. >> tomorrow somebody hopefully will find out to be the president. and one of sthem going to be kind in my hypothetical scenario and says visit me in the white house in late january. when you go to that meeting, what are you going to tell them? and let me do it this way, if it's trump or clinton, who do you think you're going have an easier conversation with? >> i would think -- that's a very good question. probably if it's tax reform, it's a little easier with trump because i think he's going to be much interested in what paul ryan's put forward. and if we look at what ryan and brady have advanced in the house of representatives, it's very, very pro-growth. it fixes the u.s. tax rate for the internationally competitive
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businesses. and it fixes the international foreign earnings tax problem. that probably adds a percent of gdp right there. i think that both trump and clinton are will be to talk about infrastructure. they've talked about it in the campaign. we think there are things that can be done, but it's really important to remember the private sector needs to lead here. we don't need government funding of all the infrastructure that one can think of in america. what we actually need are permits and -- >> it sounds like you're saying that trump is going to be the most pro growth. >> well, i think if you look -- >> that's what you basically said. >> well, i think that paul ryan and the house republicans have really done a good job of laying out some agenda items. and to the extent somebody in the white house will work closely with them and the closer they work, the bart better off they'll be. >> are you invited to your brother's for thanksgiving? >> we have a good relationship. we've got sisters too. >> he answered the question.
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>> i wonder if you're invited. okay. >> as michigan goes, perhaps the nation tonight. >> governor, we have -- thank you. we've tried to read the tea leaves and we think we're close. but that's -- >> that's the problem with republicans. half of them aren't admitting they're voting for trump. that never happens with the democrats. never happens. they would vote for son of sam if they had to, the democrats. they would still with -- they'll vote for anybody. thanks, governor. coming up, politics in the market. jim grant is here. we'll talk about gold and yields after the election. that is next.
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you can't predict the market. but through good times and bad... t. rowe price... ...we've helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. now that fedex has helped us we could focus on bigger issues, like our passive aggressive environment. we're not passive aggressive. hey, hey, hey, there are no bad suggestions here... no matter how lame they are. well said, ann. i've always admired how you just say what's in your head, without thinking. very brave. good point ted. you're living proof that looks aren't everything. thank you. welcome. so, fedex helped simplify our e-commerce business and this is not a passive aggressive environment. i just wanted to say, you guys are doing a great job. what's that supposed to mean? fedex. helping small business simplify e-commerce. what's going on here? i'm val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. we're putting away acorns. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor.
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get organized at we heard you got a job as a developer!!!!! its official, i work for ge!! what? wow... yeah! okay... guys, i'll be writing a new language for machines so planes, trains, even hospitals can work better. oh! sorry, i was trying to put it away... got it on the cake. so you're going to work on a train? not on a train...on "trains"! you're not gonna develop stuff anymore?
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no i am... do you know what ge is? welcome back to "squawk box." cnbc's election special starts tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. dom chu is at cnbc headquarters. what's going on there tonight? >> all right. we're less than 12 hours away from that big election night coverage we have here. of course carl quintanilla, john harwood, michelle caruso-cabrera are all going to be sitting behind me on that set. later on tonight. here at cnbc, we aim to give all of the traders and investors and viewers and listeners out there as much information as possible. and to that mission, this year
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we're unveiling something we call the decision zone. and what that the is a true look at leveraging all of the assets of nbc universal's news organizations. and what we're going to be able to do throughout the kours course of the day is show you as much as we can at the granular level and macro level. we'll show you network highlight coverages. we're going to zoom in on swing state locations it's all going to take place right here. i'm on the news desk right now. and people are just starting to kind of funnel in. but as people fill up later on today and certainly tonight, we're going to have a lot to tell you throughout the course of the day, guys, we're going to go all around our newsroom. . we'll walk with our camera guys to give you a look behind the scenes of what we're doing to make sure you have as much information as possible to make that decision about your portfolio, guys. again, remember, 7:00 tonight our coverage, your money your
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vote decision zone. everything happens 7:00 p.m. tonight guys. >> decision zone sounds -- i mean, that's brand new. and that's really going to give you an insight on what's going on locally. some races and propositions out there, that's going to have a huge impact on trading tomorrow. prop 61 is what i'm thinking about in california. a lot of analysts are saying that that is going to have the biggest near term impact on health care. >> exactly. prop 61 out in california is just one of those races. but remember, if there's a senate race concession speech, if there's a news maker out there making some kind of a statement about what's going on, if there are -- remember, nbc universal is probably one of the few organizations out there in news media that can give you the kind of coverage at the very, very granular level we give you
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here. if there is any kind of video, any kind of news, we've got teams of editors here scanning dozens and dozens of news feeds across the country. because all of these are nbc affiliates, we can pull from them every time. if you want to know what's happening in columbus, ohio, or mesa, arizona, we're going to be at all those places as well. >> look forward to it. dom chu with our election coverage. that begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time tonight. coming up next, our election coverage continues. jim grant is going to join us. has interesting things to say about this election and the markets. we'll talk to him when we return in just a moment.
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as americans head to the polls, investors want to know what the election will mean for the markets and the economy in both the short and the long-term. joining us right now is jim grant. founder and editor of grant's interest rate observer. some of the favorite expressions you've said here on the set about whether it's the fed or about -- just reality. one of my favorites is the fed can change the way things look but they really can't change the way things are. and once you grasp that, makes you realize there's a whole different way of looking at things. right? what about the election. >> well, one hope -- my hope in the election is it would start
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people thinking in different ways. there's a wonderful man at yale that wrote in "the wall street journal" and called donald trump the empty gin bottle of people's wrath. and it's going to go crashing through the glass window of our politics. and the glass will be the background music for at least a new set of ideas about the way we live and are governed. >> so it's an -- >> empty gin bottle of the people's wrath. >> you throw it through the glass and hear the tinking of maybe new ideas. >> as the background music to the new discussion of about the way we live and the way we should be governed and how much we ought to be governed. i read in "the wall street journal" this morning that the obama administration this year is on the way to a new record in pages produced in the federal register which of course is the catalog of the rules we live by. so we live in this ever-grasping
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administrative state. right? and it goes on year by year. and the arc of our ability to act freely is ever diminished. the state's power grows. and it happens. that's one of the issues today. is are we prepared to at least discuss the nature of the individual versus the state? rule of law, free markets, freely discovered. free range prices. not cage grown prices. get the fed out of the business of manipulating everything. that to me is the hope of this day. is that something will change such that people will look at things in a new way. >> can i read through -- so you're supporting donald trump? >> well, i'm voting for pence and apparently trump is on the same ballot. >> you're not writing in pence? >> i'm voting for both of them.
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and as my man galerta said there's always the hope of impeachment after election so we get rid of trump and have pence. >> so that's what -- >> actually my man is grover cleveland. who's unavailable. >> they say he's not dead, he's currently unavailable. >> you really want pence -- >> if i could -- if the -- if politics were reformed along my alliance, one could make a short sale i could vote against hillary and that would cancel -- well, that would cancel a vote for hillary. but we can't do that. one must cast -- >> how much of this is about removing janet yellen given your views of -- >> we're not going the remove yellen. what we might do is institute a fed not about the arbitrary manipulation of prices. >> but is that your issue in -- >> it's one issue. the rule of law, free markets,
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and the individual liberty i think are the -- >> i mean, that's -- you know, everybody's biggest fear. >> no, it's not. that's the trouble. >> no, but the aei, take arthur brooks' book, as the opposite. so romney as is candidate, probably you look up at the dictionary, the guy that you would have wanted to take it back to free mark. he got no -- he lost. he's gone. but then trump maybe appeals to the populous people. but is it a pure market guy? but you've got to get elected to do anything. >> yes. and trump is the proverbial -- but he's also a hand grenade with a pin pulls and we know not where the shrapnel will fly. he is utterly unpredictable in his random talks and actions. however, there is a shot that if
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he gets in there, that someone fundamental changes in the way of the restoration of liberty and the rolling back of the administrative state. that's the point with me at least. >> in terms of the fed, is that through political appointment? since you don't believe that yellen will be replaced or he won't expend the cap? >> she'll fill out her term. when that term ends, how about somebody who will let prices find their level rather than somebody who is going to continue to impose the will of the federal government on yield curve, stock market, on everything else financial. >> so when do we -- so this election goes past, and then i don't know where we are. but you know in the high speed lane when you get in it then you regret getting in because you can't get out, you know? you're going to be there forever. it's like why did i do this when the person in front of me ask going 50? when are we on the road where we can't get out? >> you would have thought that in the '30s. right? and people did -- >> well, i thought it in the
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2000s, too, in 2008. >> but this country is -- >> don't worry about the music. >> little like major league baseball. try as they might, they can't destroy it. >> i assume he must hate the hov lane. because that's government imposed. >> i'm a subway guy. >> jim, thank you. coming up, we visit another key battleground state. one that could decide the presidency and control of the senate. a live report from north carolina straight ahead. is it because so many go after it the same way? chasing after short term returns. instead if getting caught up with the crowd, the investment managers at pgim take a long term view, teaming specialized active investing with risk-management rigor, to seek out global opportunities.
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it's election day in america. >> all we need is great ideas to make america great again. that's all we need. >> i got to tell you. this is sure worth staying up for. >> so what will today's result mean for the markets, the economy, and the world? >> from wall street to main street, corporate america to the halls of congress, it's election day. and the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box."
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>> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin and melissa lee. the futures -- i mean, this is like waiting for the big jobs report or something only it's ten times that. who's going to put on a trade ahead of this if you don't know what's going to happen? pretty flat all morning long. it was red before but now just barely up positive as you saw. wow. news alert. >> we have a news alert. you're looking right now -- >> that guy looks familiar. >> in new york where hillary clinton has just arrived to cast her ballot. you saw a little bit of an image there of bill clinton right there. i think going in. i don't know if we're going to have that camera pan across exactly what we can or cannot see. he's going to come around. >> the other side. >> the other end of this right now. looks like there's a member of the security team there. i don't know exactly what -- >> perhaps it has been big in
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chappaqua for hillary clinton to come out of her home and arrive at the polling station. >> all righty then. >> okay. we will keep watching this. in the meantime, a few corporate stories that we're keeping track of as we -- oh. i don't know if you want to go back to it. >> only on back just for a second. >> there was cheering. >> i assume she's walking right there. okay. no coffee in hand. i remember historically there's a starbucks right there in the middle of chappaqua. used to go all the time. oftentimes walking into the polling place. i think the last time with a big starbucks in hand. as she goes -- >> potential first laddie. right? >> that's what they say. >> we should say polls are deadlocked in the battleground
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state of north carolina which could not only decide the presidency but also control of the senate. the race could come down to this and cnbc's scott cohn joins us from raleigh. scott? >> reporter: good morning,around rue. this is the chavis community center with a rich history in the african-american community. this state is crucial which is why in the wee hours of this morning a little more than 18 months after it began, hillary clinton ended her presidential campaign here with a midnight rally at nc state university making one last closing argument. donald trump was here just a few hours earlier in one of his last campaign stops on a five-state sprint on election eve. for him this state is about as close as you can get to a must-win. in this state, perhaps more than any other, america's racial divide is on full display. african-american turnout in early voting was down from four years ago. lack of enthusiasm for clinton, republicans say.
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voter suppression of the african-american community, the democrats will say. that will be discussed for a long time. whatever the case, hillary clinton needs these votes so black turnout today is especially crucial. >> there might be a little room for that to drop off, but if it drops off more than just a few points from what we've seen in previous elections, then that makes it very hard for hillary clinton to win north carolina. >> reporter: the flip side for donald trump is to turn out the white rural vote and there is a lot of that and a lot of enthusiasm was on display at the rally yesterday in early voting for the republicans. it was virtually unchanged from four years ago. democrats out-paced republicans in terms of registered voters in the early vote. but how they all voted remains to be seen and what happens today, of course, is crucial. not only for the state, but for the nation. guys? >> thank you for that, scott. as we showed you some images
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there on the other side you're looking at hillary clinton voting. also we'll show you images now i believe of joe biden who is making his way into the voting booth right now. he might have just made his way into the voting booth as we watch what's going on in wilmington this morning. in the meantime, as americans head to the polls, let's get some insight on the state of the race and how each outcome may impact the markets broadly. joining us now is libby cantrell pimco's head of public policy. help us try to understand this. do you look at -- do you have different data than the rest of us? what do you have? >> i mean, we don't have different data. but we are looking at the polling in these crucial swing states of ohio, florida, north carolina, pennsylvania. because of donald trump's sort of more narrow path to the 270 electoral votes he needs to get to win the white house, he has
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to win the north carolina. he has to win florida. he has to win ohio. while there's a lot of noise around national polling, we are focused on those states because of the limited pathway. >> so what can you tell us about north carolina, for example? or what can you tell us about florida that we may not know? >> north carolina is in a dead heat. the early voting looks positive in some ways for clinton and more mixed for her in other ways. certainly the african-american vote is a very important one in north carolina. but what you are seeing is you're seeing more hispanics vote in early voting in north carolina and also see more women voting. if she wins, she will likely win because women came out. that will be the clinton coalition. >> we've seen what nate silver has to say, "the new york times" has to say. everyone's got a different model. what does the pimco model say? >> the pimco model being me. if you look at the polling in those swing states, if you look at sort of the clrk shifts that
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are definitely in democrats favor, if you look at the underlying fundamentals of the economy, if you look at obama's positive approval rating, all of those are head winds for a hillary clinton presidency. so we're not going to argue with the odds of nate silver or others. i think probably 75% clinton victory. >> on a day like today, how many updates are you giving to people -- serious question. and whether they're actually making moves based on the how are to hour changes in the polls you're monitoring. >> absolutely. we have the benefit of being long-term investors. right? so we manage assets for pensioners and other retirement plans. so we have a long-term view. but certainly we have been viewing the election as a key point from a risk perspective. we are not going to be making daily trades based on the sort of up-to-date polling numbers. but certainly has this been an
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input into our investment process really for the last few months? absolutely. >> and when you think about the best outcome, do you want a divided government? >> if you look historically where the market has reacted, the market has done best when there's been a democrat in control and when there's been a republican congress or split congress. and that looks like what we're going to get. we're probably going to get a hillary clinton victory and either a split congress ie they take the senate back. or republicans are able to hold both chak bers. i think from the market's perspective, that scenario is probably best in terms of divided government. it means that hillary clinton would have a check on her appointments, on people she nominates and also on her fiscal word. >> if you wake up tomorrow and donald trump is president, how do you think -- one this morning says the market is baking in or would go down 5% to 6%. >> yeah.
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i think the estimates range from 2% to 15%. yeah. i mean, would the market be down? absolutely. we had a test of that, you know, last week when risk assets sold off really sort of across the board. you also saw the dollar weakening and you saw, you know, sort of rates pushing back. >> but is that a sell and ask questions later. then over the next couple weeks people would ask those questions. >> that's the big question. right? this is what we've debated internally. we know that the market would sell off but what is the longevity of that selloff? something like brexit where the market rebounded quickly? or is it more of a prolonged selloff? that's the big question mark. and donald trump, we don't -- as you all know, we don't have a lot of specifics of what his economic agenda would look like. which is unusual at this point b in the election. the day of the election we have a question mark about what his
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economic priorities would be. >> go out and vote. we got a few corporate stories we're watching this morning. cvs cutting full year forecast. the drugstore operator says it's seeing slowing prescription growth. cvs also announcing a new $15 billion stock buyback program. meanwhile valeant missing the top and bottom lines. the c eshs o says valeant is making progress with its ongoing restructuring of operations. this is a new multi-year low for shares of valeant. and horton posting weaker than forecast earnings. results impacted by a jump in cancellations. also announcing a 25% quarterly div dent increase. take a look at wayfair beating the street. gained significant market share during the quarter. remains optimistic about long-term profit possibly. johnson controls topping earnings and revenue estimates. this is the first quarter since the company merged with tyco.
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unchanged in premarket. and goldman sachs downgraded to neutral at citi. all right. coming up, preparing for polling station controversy or even a contested election. former federal prosecutor kendall coffey will be here to break down all of the what ifs. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. they say the world does not revolve around you. but today, maybe it can. i am helping 1-800-flowers find the perfect gift out of trillions of combinations. and working with the new york genome center to find treatments as personal as dna. and i am helping sesame street make education unique to every child. hello, my name is watson. working together, we can outthink anything.
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hwe're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
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taking a look at a live picture of the clintons. you see bill clinton there. hillary clinton is there as well after just having cast her vote in chappaqua, new york. and they are regreeting supports out there. the clintons just emerging from that polling station having cast their vote. >> and many are heralding the end of this long and bitter presidential campaign. but things might. not end today. thin vote margins could mean legal challenges up ahead. joining us now is kendall coffey who served as a member of al gore's legal team.
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mr. coffey is also at coffey burlington and a former united states attorney for the southern district of florida. so you know florida and i guess you -- something happened there 16 years ago too. would that be anything -- history doesn't always repeat. it kind of rhymes. but there's something about florida, isn't there? >> there's something about florida and certainly if it's anywhere near as close as it was last time, we could be center stage again. but i think that it could be any place in the country where there's a razor thin margin to have some kind of an election contest requires a very big problem of fraud or of regularity. and a very small margin. that's what we have to work to see what the litigation future might be from this election. >> it was a perfect storm in 2000. because it depended on florida. it rarely in the history of the world do you see when it's a couple of a hundred million people.
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and it does come down to 500, 1,000, 2,000 votes in a single state. that's unlikely for something like that to happen again. it doesn't have to be florida. it could be anywhere if the election were really close. >> doesn't have to be florida. it could be anywhere. and it may -- if it's not the presidency, it could be one of the critical senate races. because that could be very close. there could be a recount in north carolina or florida where we have a hotly contested senate race. that while not tipping the balance on the presidency, the united states could decide the future control of the senate. that would be mighty important too. >> on the one hand it could happen a lot of different places. if you were trying to do something as a, you know, a foreign entity or somebody that had an interest in disrupting this whole process, you can't do it all. there's not one grand central
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element that you could do it to. you'd have to do it in some disparate way, right? >> voting is so decentralized and not networked. literally if there were some secret dark force trying to manipulate the election, they would have to get into tens of thousands of different voting machines and the logistics of that seem absolutely impossible. >> when we go to the supreme court this time, who do we go to when it's 4-4? >> we can't go to anybody if it's 4-4. that means whatever the lower court said, that's the ends of the road. one of the many reasons this election is so important. because there will be a ninth supreme court justice coming out of the presidential election. >> maybe we can flip a count -- if we can find a coin, we'll flip -- hopefully it's not a two-headed -- there are a lot of scenarios. we like to talk about them, but hopefully everything will go
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pretty well. any other insight you have in your own view. whether donald trump at this point are, or say it's the other way. where would it most likely be? where's the most fertile ground? >> there's going to be election day commotion with people. or that lines are too long or blocked for polling places. to get limited problems solved. the big question is do you have a recount somewhere? and generally almost every state has a recount procedure. in florida requires to have any kind of recount half a percentage. meaning if 9 million people vote, the margin would have to be 45,000. that's the rule for states around the country. but it still takes at the end of
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the day some kind of fraud or irregularity that's substantial and a submicroscopic margin. fraud doesn't mean my opponent was lying about me. it's rare you're going to have a that kind of a strong challenge in most elections. but there are going to be a couple. we don't know where they're going to be, but there are going to be a couple. we hope everything goes smoothly. but sometimes in florida it can be here we go again. >> exactly. okay. mr. coffey, thank you. appreciate it. appreciate your time this morning. >> thanks for including me. coming up when we return, voters heading to the polls. cnbc kicking off decision zone coverage tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. we have a sneak peek coming up next when we return. ♪ it's been over 100 years since the first stock index was created,
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as a benchmark for average. ♪ yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. ♪ but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. ♪ and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. ♪ translation? why invest in average?
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welcome back to "squawk box." markets flat so far this morning. cnbc will have special coverage of the election starting tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. dom chu joins us now with a sneak peek of all of the inner
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workings of what's going to be going on this evening. dom? >> what we got right now is earlier we told you about the dozens of nbc universal related news organizations, affiliates that will feed in data to our news operations. well, this is our satellite operations center. i'm going to take you through here and get a look at just how many feeds are coming in all across the country. and all of these feeds are going to be monitored by a lot of our professionals and editors here to give you an idea of what's happening at any given time if there is a concession speech somewhere. if there is some news maker sitting down from making a statement of any sort. we'll know. investors and traders can get the most up-to-date information about what's happening with this election. now, joe over here is monitoring a lot of different things. i know we did see, joe, vice president joe biden doing some work and here we can pull it up right here. that's our vice president doing some voting at his polling
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location right now. so we're going to be able to see this. if anything happens, if there's a scoring opportunity whatsoever, we'll bring it to you. that's the whole idea behind this. the decision zone and your money your vote is going to give you all of the information you can need. it's an unprecedented effort on the part of any business news organization. it goes to show you just the reach that we have out here. throughout the course of the day we're going to show you more behind the scenes looks. next hour we'll take you to the control rooms where all this stuff is going to happen. back over to you. >> impressive. that is a -- look at -- i want to count those some time. dom, count those screens and let me know. >> i'll count them. >> earlier i was watching you and there's a big screen up here. i started to get a little bit dizzy just thinking about --
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that goes on forever if it has the resolution. it would be dom and dom and dom and dom. anyway -- >> hopefully it won't be that bad throughout the course of the day. but we'll see if we can get that little bit more sorted out. >> i liked it. i loved you. it was all the dom all the time. >> more dom the better. coming up, our special election coverage continues. trump campaign senior adviser boris epstein will be here. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc.
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♪ welcome back to "squawk box" right here on election day. here's what's making headlines this morning besides the election. small business sentiment rose slightly in october. the national federation of independent business says its monthly index rose to 94.9%. however, it's still below historical norms as well as a 2014 high of over a hundred. also carnival has become the
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first cruise line operator to implement interpol security system known as check it. that's follows a three-month pilot program. do you think a lot of criminals are taking cruise lines? i don't know. tesla is taking steps to ramp up automated manufacturing. it bought groman engineering. the deal will help it reach a target of producing 500,000 cars per year by 2018. the election is under way and the presidential candidates are making one last pitch to the country. joining us now with more with the message from the trump campaign, senior trump adviser boris epstein. good to see you. >> good to see you. >> so when you live in this world and you see newspapers and you see real clear politics. i see probably 10, 15, 20 polls a day. you can't help but look at those. and they start taking on a life of their own. whether they're true or not.
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is there any reason to think they've got it wrong. have we gotten any better at doing it? i don't know how we do it. people don't have land lines. i don't know what to believe at this point. >> there's no crystal ball. and you don't know what you don't know. you don't know what people are going to do when you get into that booth. all you can do is measure preference, party affiliation. this year's proven one thing. polling is tough. but even clear politics came up with their map. that's because they gave new hampshire to hillary clinton because of an outlier poll. we're going to win this election today. we're going to win it because of the enthusiasm, because of the message. because mr. trump will do much better with hispanics and african-americans. we'll do it with winning states which are behind the so-called
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blue fire wall. we're confident going into today. >> pennsylvania would be -- that unheard of. so is there any -- i'm glad you're saying it. you're a trump surrogate, but is there something backing up -- >> of course. >> why do you think hispanics might be better? >> a look at the poll with hispanics, we're in the 20% range. >> and romney was much lower? >> we're doing better than romney. also mr. trump won hispanics in the primaries in the state of new york. i'm sorry in the city of new york. and there's a big cross section. when you say hispanic, it's not one overarching group. puerto ricans, cubans. look at florida. we're going to do well with cubans and puerto ricans. we're going to win the state of florida. as far as the specific states i mentioned, look at the polling. we're up in pennsylvania, up in michigan. we will win those states for the
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first time for republicans since 1988. >> why is it that -- and we've had many, many investment professionals on this program. and they all say it is so difficult to see what a trump victory would need more business. you've got the business audience. what is the number one thing that trump will do that will help business? we just had the head policy of pimco sitting in your seat saying there's such lack of clarity to what trump will do -- >> contributions for -- >> number one it's pretty simple. it's the lower corporate tax rate. from 35% to 15%. you couldn't be clearer on that. we are a policy driven campaign. we're not a personal attack driven campaign like the clinton campaign is. the personal income tax rate. 12%, 25%, 33%. basic smaller tax rates that are clear and easier for people to understand. that is something that will
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re-energize business in this country, revitalize this economy. this country is stagnating economically right now. you talked about it a ton. look at wages not going up. real unemployment over 10%. mr. trump will absolutely -- >> this is the stability of hillary clinton. it will be more of the same most likely with trump who does know at this point. i think about pimco, good old pimco. wow. bill gross, he's not there anymore but he's like a communist. honestly. he is so far left socially. then who's the guy that -- the looks like a guru now? yeah. yeah. those guys as a rule are -- so i don't know. but that's neither here nor there. >> but for the most part we talked about there's a divide between business people. right? if you're the ceo of a fortune 500 company or fortune 1,000 company, you -- >> you remember when welch came in? had an eight-point plan for why -- for a conservative for
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why trump's overall platform was totally in terms of deregulation, corporate tax policy. >> and then the billy bush video came out and he changed his position. >> he changed his position on him being outspoken. he's still going to vote for trump. >> is he? >> yes. >> the keystone pipeline taking off caps, making sure we are mining for coal again, coal jobs come back. these are specific policies. but with hillary clinton, she's giving you retrends that are going nowhere. we know where this country stands. if we keep going down the same path, we'll continue to lose standing in the world both politically and because of that economically. >> just wonder, too, about the -- the crony capitalism aspect of this. you think of some of this country's biggest companies. and i can see why they'd be more
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comfortable with hillary clinton in terms of contracts that you get for solar or for defense. there's a myriad of reasons that aren't necessarily free market -- >> you're saying those are bad for the economy? >> i'm saying they're not necessarily free market private sector reasons. they're crony capitalist reasons. the same thing you just heard jim grant talking about. throwing something into the glass. that cozy relationship between big business and government is one of the things that. but i think you've got -- we just heard someone say it's 80% hillary. >> they could think that. they're ready to go. madam president. >> they could enjoy their first 100 days having no new policy. our first 100 days would have repealing, replace b obamacare, another policy that will spur business, that will spur hiring.
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employees are not hiring that 50th person now. why? obamacare. after brexit everyone said the market was going to tank. it went down that first dawn and popped back up. if mr. trump is elected, long-term this market will continue to go up and up because the economy will get stronger and stronger. . and really stronger not just because of monetary rates. >> we will see. >> thanks a lot. >> thank god it's the last day though. >> yes. >> tgild. i guess. coming up, what today's election could mean for politics. ian bremmer will be our guest next. tomorrow on "squawk box", the polls will be closed. the results will be in. how will the outcome of the election impact the economy and the markets? we have a panel of money managers, strategists, and top political thinkers lined up for reaction. that's tomorrow starting at 6:00 a.m. eastern.
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"squawk box" will be right back.
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look at shares of valeant. missing on the top and bottom lines. val yabt also cutting its full year forecast. the company's cfo says there could be more surprises ahead. you're looking at that stock down another 16% in the premarket. of course this is the stock that
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bill ackman has loaded up. >> that should be an interesting topic. >> i imagine that will be a big part of the conversation. >> all right. let's get back to politics here. take a look at the key global challenges facing the next president. ian bremmer joining us from washington. ian, great to have you with us. >> good morning. good to be back. >> predictions? >> well, i certainly think that hillary's going to win. and but i also think that 18 months of this election has been incredibly damaging to the united states around the world. you think about the wars in iraq and afghanistan and how badly they've gone. a lot of countries saying the
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u.s. isn't a global sheriff anymore. look at this election and what both candidates have said about trade and what it says about our democracy, a lot of leaders around the world almost all of our allies are saying not sure american values are the ones we want to listen to. not sure they're going to drive trade agreements anymore. these are sort of the bedrocks upon which the american superpower and are influence around the world has stood. whether it's trump or hillary in january, it's not as if suddenly it's business as usual in the united states with all these countries. >> right spp this the world you've been talking about? you've written about in which there's a power backing the global governance and what happens in that vacuum. >> it certainly is. although the americans are not as quick to see it because of course our part of the world is so much more stable. we're not affected by the refugee crisis. so if we don't want to take any, doesn't really matter. isis much of a less direct threat to us than in the middle east or in europe. but around the world, they really are feeling that.
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and they're starting to wonder how they're going to hedge. there are alternatives. i mean, if you think about china, traveling around the world with lots of cash behind them. it used to be they'd be buying commodities from other countries. they're not doing as much as of that. there are countries not just in asia where we're the largest trade partner. where they're starting to say, you know, the united states is not a country we want to bet on as much going forward. and this election has done absolutely nothing to rebuild our credibility. >> so if the elections are going to provide the foundation for this g-0, this vacuum in global leadership, who then fills that vacuum? i mean, we're just trying to connect the dots here with the impact of this election is going to tip the balance of power around the world to what koun drink? >> well, that's the point. i mean, if it were another country, life would be much
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different. in the middle east it's going to ip to the balance to the saudis a little, the iranians a little bit more, to the turks a little. israel plays a role which is one of the reasons why the middle east is exploding right now and why you have so many conflicts, so many failed states. that's going to grow. in europe, i mean, they used to be the most important allies of the united states and the world. but brexit is going to be a very long and indeterminate process. and populism is growing much faster in europe, frankly, than it is in the united states even given what we've seen here. in asia there will be a lot of tilting towards china. so china is starting to fill that vacuum across the region. you've seen that in the philippines with the new president there. mr. duterte saying he wants separation from the united states. in malaysia we're seeing that tilt. i was with the singaporean prime minister that wants globalization. while the chinese he said are walking around with lollipops in
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their pockets. >> all right. >> so there is -- you're starting to see that occur. but only economically. if you leave that aside, the answer to the united states is problems don't get resolved. >> all right. ian, we got to leave it there. thank you so much for joining us. >> great to see you. when we come back, jim murren is going to join us with his take on the presidential election and how nevada is going to vote. "squawk box" returns in just a moment. built with passion... but i keep it growing by making every dollar count. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line. what's in your wallet? mcould be great on the outside,k ofnot so great on the inside.
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welcome back to "squawk box." you can bet on almost anything in las vegas, but the presidential election is off limits. casino operators, however, can throw their support to the candidates. this year the decision is split. our own jane welles joins us from sin city. >> reporter: hey, melissa. nevada has six electoral votes. they could end up being a big deal. some think in all the swing states trump has his best chance here. though in early voting more democrats showed up than republicans. when it comes to the vegas strip ceos they're all over the map. jim murren is a republican but he supports clinton for policies on trade and immigration.
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phil ruffin is all with trump for trade and other reasons. as for big-time investor sheldon adlison, he and his wife have raced for anti-hillary pacs. though he has not endorsed trump. and steve wynn, a democrat who has railed against obama for eight years says he has talked to trump but won't say whether he's voted for him. i talked to phil ruffin yesterday before he boarded a plane to new york. he will spend an evening with donald trump. >> when he says he can bring back jobs, if he lowers the tax to 15% on corporations, they won't leave. they leave at 35% and go to other countries. that's part of who the problem is. i still believe there's a hidden vote out there for donald. and we'll see how strong that is
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coming in. you know, he's given 100%. donald is working 20 hours a day. i worry about his health because, you know, three, four, five cities a day. he would be that kind of a president. you know, he works all the time. >> reporter: ruffin says it's going to be close and that tonight's going to be, quote, wild. later on "squawk alley," california is voting on marijuana issues. this is one issue those on the strip agree on. they're all against it. >> thank you for that, jane. now we're hearing from a sin city ceo not voting for donald trump. that's jim murren. he's politicly endorsed hillary clinton. i'm curious, jim, in terms of the state that you represent to a large degree, nevada, where you think it's ultimately going to land at this point? >> well, nevada is a great
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example of the united states. demographically we're very similar. i'm highly confident that secretary clinton is going to win here. the early results would suggest that and the that. and the folks that i've been talking here on the ground very much support her policies over donald trump. >> make a case, if you could, you've said before that you have voted for republicans in the past and so i'm trying to understand exactly what it is that you see in terms of hillary clinton versus donald trump right now. >> sure. i'm hoping after tomorrow we won't have to talk about donald trump. much has been written about his disqualifications as a president. but i'll start with hillary clinton, secretary clinton. she's a strong proponent of trade. i've been, since i've been on your show, to china, japan, the middle east in the last 30 days. i know the importance of the
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united states as part of a global trading partner. donald trump has alienated every trading partner we have. secretary clinton will work with our trading partners. we need strong immigration reform. donald trump's version of immigration is to be a bigot. and secretary clinton has got to work across the aisle for strong immigration reform to protect our borders, but also recognize the fact that trade and travel and tourism is very important to our economy. from a standpoint of looking at the economy itself, i spent a long time on wall street before i got out here. every single economist i'm reading about or market predictor is saying that if donald trump wins today, god forbid, the markets are down profoundly. >> jim, we've had a number of people, though, on this morning who have made the case, including jim grant, who effectively suggested that we
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need to sort of break some glass. effectively the economy is not doing as well as perhaps you are suggesting. that wages are not nearly where they should otherwise be and that we are going to be living in more of the same. i'm taking the devil's advocate position here. >> no, that's a fair question. first, the economy is doing well, so i have to disagree with that. i just reported earnings yesterday. we've been growing our company for the last three years in a row. we had the best quarter we've had since 2007. why that's important for this show is that the reason why we did well is that businesses came to las vegas, consumers are spending more money, and the economy is doing better. that doesn't mean the economy is perfect, and i do agree that we need to make some very major structural changes in our tax code, major structural changes in the way we do business. but to suggest the economy is not doing well and to scare people to think that the economy
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is not doing well and we're losers around the world is just patently wrong. >> jim, just switching gears away from politics, you just posted results yesterday. domestically you saw the best revenue since 2007. where are you seeing the strength in particular? and out of this election, which policies will determine whether that strength continues? what are you most concerned about or excited about? >> well, thank you. yes, we had a great quarter. it was based upon businesses coming here for their conventions. we see a good fourth quarter in that regard and also in 2017. so businesses need to feel like they have predictable business models before they get on the road and travel, so that's really important, predictability. i think you're going to have a good year out here in '17 in that regard. secondly, more international travelers. 20% of the people that visit las vegas come from overseas.
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which is why i'm a little sensitized to the hate rhetoric from donald trump. i need those international tourists to come here. heinen airlines is starting to fly directly from china next month here to las vegas, and emirates airlines is looking to fly here as well, so stronger international tourism also helps our business. and thirdly, from a standpoint of the consumer, the consumer has been spending a little bit more money. they're looking for a value proposition. las vegas provides that. that is also why we're doing well here. we're finding ways, new ways for people to come to las vegas. we just spoke to new arena. we're having our first professional hockey team is going to come here next year. i hope we get football and maybe even basketball down the road, so las vegas is really growing up. >> jim, we appreciate your time this morning. thank you, sir. >> thank you very much. >> see you soon. let's get down to the new york stock exchange.
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a lot of people tweeting and talking about your show last night, jim. did you do -- you had a couple of stocks that would get creamed if trump were to surprise in your view. did you do the flip side as well? did you cover all the outcomes last night? >> well, cashew gets killed if trump wins but cashew is a big winner. listen, the stock was up big today, that's a tell. i said semex would be a terrific play if hillary wins because there would be no repeal of nafta and it would be a loser if trump wins, so i tried to be even-handed. but it's funny, we are in such a weird moment. we structured the show specifically to show what nafta would do and who would get hurt with the repeal of nafta and who would do better. we sat down and said, okay, let's figure out who's the biggest winner, who's the biggest loser, and somehow it became that i was endorsing
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hillary. i mean we were kind of in shock that that was -- we thought it was kind of like let's say nafta goes, we've not been pro-nafta on the show. listen, it does lower the cost of goods but it does take away jobs because people in mexico are working for about $2.75 an hour with no health care. so let's accept the fact the jobs go there. we thought the show would be perceived as pro-trump. we were trying to be so even-handed. and it didn't matter. i think if we had tried to make it -- we literally were flabbergasted that it came out as anti-trump. it was meant to be even-handed about what nafta does. >> i would ask you whether -- with sporting events there's ways to handicap it and with other black swan -- i just don't
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know what tos 82. i don't know whether to use polls, bets, underlying sentiment. >> this one does not feel like the polls are a judgment. that's why we thought we should do it straight up. that's why tonight we're picking stocks to win either way. we found some. so, you know, if anyone thinks that we win either way, i mean i don't know.
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if you do nothing else today, go out and vote. >> yes. >> today is the day to vote. >> we will, we will. >> we're going to all go do it in just a moment. >> early and often. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. stay tuned all day. "squawk on the street" begins right now and we will have a new president tomorrow morning. ♪ 130 million americans will finish casting their votes today for the 45th president of the united states. good tuesday morning. happy election day. welcome to "squawk on the str t street" at the new york stock exchange. the s&p coming off that 2% plus gain yesterday. options implying some major volatility tomorrow. europe is relatively mixed.


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