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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  November 8, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EST

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if you do nothing else today, go out and vote. >> yes. >> today is the day to vote. >> we will, we will. >> we're going to all go do it in just a moment. >> early and often. >> make sure you join us tomorrow. stay tuned all day. "squawk on the street" begins right now and we will have a new president tomorrow morning. ♪ 130 million americans will finish casting their votes today for the 45th president of the united states. good tuesday morning. happy election day. welcome to "squawk on the str t street" at the new york stock exchange. the s&p coming off that 2% plus gain yesterday. options implying some major volatility tomorrow. europe is relatively mixed. jolts and inventories tonight
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likely to know overshadowed. polls are open in most of the country. with the presidency and control of the senate and house at stake, we've got your bases covered coast to coast. live reports from battleground states all across the nation. jim, you went into this pretty heavy last night looking at playbooks either way. what is your general thought about how to approach today? >> we're going to have a couple stocks tonight that win no matter what. i think the idea is i think from the very beginning, you go back to the day that trump started, it was about mexico. and mexico is a job taker. mexico does make your products cheaper. but it is a job taker. and it's a job taker in the sense that if you're mercedes or if you're bmw or if you're toyota, you're trying to figure out where to put a plant and you're indifferent whether you put a plant in mexico or the united states in terms of being able to reach california and new york, so the idea is that if you put a plant in pueblo, ksu is
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the winner because ksu takes your cars up and ksu is the big loser if you stop taking the cars up. those bmws will be made here. these are about reaching the u.s. market. if you can't get -- if you put a tariff on mexican cars, then they'll be made here. but at the same time, your cars will be more expensive. so it's this huge trade-off between the number of people who are involved in making autos. >> we make a lot of cars here still as it is. i know you've had these conversations and i think he'd say we've added jobs. >> it's not americans. there's a gm plant nearby where i have a house. >> so it's not the american automakers. >> no. it's really bmw and mercedes. >> audi also now is making their q-7 in mexico, i think. >> it's where they put the plant. i'm just kind of amazed. they built a new airport next to me. and it's for german and japanese
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executives basically. because they can use nafta to make it so it's $3 an hour. look at the peso, no health care because it's provided by the state, very light pollution control laws and zero a absenteeism. no you knunions. so the question is not ford, it's not gm. it's about where mercedes is going to put the next plant. you're talking about 4 or 5 million cars coming from mexico in 2020. so that is what at stake and ksu -- we were using ksu as what hitchcock would call the mcgovern. it was kind of the thing. i looked at twitter because people felt that was an anti-trump story. what we did is say this is the one that determines where the next builds will be. and if you do think nafta will go away, then you have to
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believe that mercedes and bmw or the companies that are expanding will build cars to get in the american market in america. so there's really kind of not much to that. you put a tariff on a mexican car so it costs as much as a car to make in america, you're not going to build a car in mexico. >> overall markets, we've heard strategists call for a decline on a trump victory. a peso getting killed. a run to safe havens. but others argue that a lot of that depends on how he responds to a victory tonight, if he wins. >> i think that's true. look, the peso has just been from -- in 2010 the peso was 12-1. it's now 18, 19-1. so it's been factoring in a lot of trump, particularly because the mexicans economy is not too bad. if oil and gas were up it would be triple our gdp. so there is without a doubt, if there is a speech that comes from trump saying we're going to take this slowly, i know that i
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joke a lot with sara and with will about the brexit paradigm, but if you take it slow, if it goes to congress, if you figure it all out, then it won't bes aearth shattering. but i do think when you get with ceos, all the ceos want the rhetoric to die down. there was a conference call yesterday that was one of the most frightening conference calls and it was the cisco syy con. it said restaurants, people stopped going out. the deceleration in restaurants this quarter was extraordinary. i think it's about people staying at home. sysco had a good quarter because they bought a company in europe. bright spot, bright spot, bright spot. but it was about people not going out. and i think my hope is once you get the election over, maybe people will return. they'll go out again. but when you hear sysco, that's
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a nationwide company. it's no longer anecdotal. it's not like they're going to darden because they're going to wendy's, they're just not going. but that was a call about america and what's happened in america the last 90 days. >> i guess i have a little harder time understanding exactly how behavior is impacted by the election in terms of people making a decision not to go out to olive garden. >> like domino's had double digit. i mean that's stay at home. >> why, though? what is it? what are people -- >> what i was postulating, they're not staying home and watching football. the numbers aren't that good. i think that they're transfixed -- i think people are watching coverage. >> really? you think they're staying home because they're watching election coverage? >> look, i'm stuck. >> yeah. some of the sunday news -- sports was impacted by coverage of comey over the weekend, we
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saw that. >> yeah. look, i'm kind of staggered. >> wow. >> what else? what else was coincident -- >> maybe you take a look at darden was starting to go up yesterday. maybe you make a restaurant bet, cheesecake was one of the few. but i thought the sysco call, it was too coincident with the election because i couldn't find something else that happened in america that would make it so they would talk about a dramatic deceleration of orders in restaurants in the last 90 days. look, i'm just going by default. david, i'm doing a tail of radiosination. >> i think they're leaving the house less to transact business. realtors might be leaving to do a showing. >> last night i had brad jacobs
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on from the second largest company in terms of last mile, of bringing e-com -- what's the matter? >> i'm looking, i'm listening. >> you're intimidating me with that. >> i don't mean to be. >> e-commerce he said was incredibly strong which again dovetails -- think about it. you've got patty doyle saying the last three months have been amazing. the ceo of domino's pizza. you've got krause saying take two has never had sales like this. that's nba 2k and you've got the kraft beer company saying really remarkable things. that's stay at home. you have mccormick telling me yes, you're right on when you say people are cooking at home. they're at home. now, what happened? it wasn't like a nuclear winter. >> thankfully. >> it wasn't like something happened that they had to stay inside. >> i don't have the answer, but it is interesting to note because there is a -- >> i can't think of anything else. >> i know. >> what else could it be?
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we all decided to stay home because of narcos 2? >> wages are going up. >> all those things would have led to better restaurant sales. >> yeah. >> and it's not like any wednesday, which is no longer any. there's not a lot to explain why people stayed home. >> i guess we'll know the answer if in fact the behavior changes after election day. >> my take is you can't take any choices. if you're at home and a bit of a specula speculator, you make a bet on a darden that people go back out again. if you want to make a bet on brinker, i don't know, they didn't have that great a quarter. but it is extraordinary to hear sysco who handles everybody, say listen, we had a big deceleration the last three months. i can't find any other reason. >> for more on election day today, let's get to our chief washington correspondent, john harwood, who's at hq. good morning, john. >> good morning, carl. you know, today is quiet, americans vote, we wait to count
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them. yesterday the candidates closed that long campaign with one more sprint to the finish. donald trump fighting the odds appealed in michigan to the idea of fighting the establishment and the rigged system. take a listen. >> there is one core question for you to consider. do you want america to be ruled by the corrupt political class or do you want america to be ruled by you, the people. that's what it is, by the people. >> now, hillary clinton is expecting to win. she took a different approach. she's looking past the election. she tried to raise the tone of her remarks last night and bring people together after the election. >> i want you to know and i want you to spread the word i do want to be president for all americans, not just some, not just the people who support me and vote for me, i want to be president for everyone, because we all have a role to play in
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building that better future for our country and for each of you. >> that was in raleigh, north carolina, where she appeared with lady gaga. here's why she is feeling good about the prospects. take a look at the nbc battleground map. a lot of blue, dark blue and light blue. if you take the states that are either with her on leaning to her, she's at 274. that doesn't mean donald trump couldn't snatch some of those back today. you see toss-ups in arizona, in florida, in georgia, in north carolina, in ohio and in new hampshire. but hillary clinton's favored. donald trump has got to run the table. you see him only with 170 votes solidly in his column. if you look at the odds, the new york times upshot model gives hillary clinton an 84% chance to win the election. nate silver is a little lower, princeton is a little higher, but that shows the expectations going into tonight. now, we also got races for the senate and for the house.
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take a look at the senate balance. democrats need to pick up four seats. if hillary clinton wins the presidency with her vice president breaking the tie, they are favored to do that but very narrowly. it's going to be a close race. we might not know who controls the senate until tomorrow because you're going to have extended vote counts in some of those close races. the house is the one certainty. it is highly unlikely that democrats win the 30 seats they need to control the house. they need to get to 218. there's only about three dozen house seats that are vulnerable that republicans now hold. democrats would have to win nearly all of them. not impossible, but very unlikely, carl. >> john, if there's one state that's going to tell us tonight whether it's going to be a short night or a long night, what is it? >> well, i would say that north carolina is probably the key state because if hillary clinton can hold the lead that she seems to have established in the early vote, very narrow, she's slightly favored in that state now, that takes 15 electoral
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votes that donald trump absolutely has to have. donald trump starts with the 206 that mitt romney had, but that includes north carolina. you take those away, the onus is on him to win a much higher percentage of those remaining states. florida is also a state if hillary clinton if she wins, and she's slightly favored, very slightly, that would be an absolute block on donald trump's ability to get to 270. >> john, we'll see you in a little bit. make sure you catch our special election coverage beginning tonight, 7:00 p.m. eastern time right here on cnbc. when we come back, we'll take on top of the election and all the market movers throughout the morning. also ahead, house financial services chairman jeb hensarling on the election. take another look at the premarket. that gain yesterday of 2.2%, we've only done it 12 times in five years. more "squawk on the street" in a minute.
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cvs health tumbling in the premarket. quarterly revenues beat. pharmacy network changes in the marketplace and slowing prescription growth. cvs also approving a new $15 billion share buy-back.
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they say drug stocks with a "v" in them today not doing well. >> i'm going to the call -- >> on cvs. >> yeah, on cvs. you combine what jpmorgan says about walgreens, the 40 million prescription that they're losing, probably 40% is prime, 40% is tri-care. these are restricted network deals that cvs takes out of the picture. the thinking goes that these go to walgreens and that walgreens is the winner. no one is going to believe that. >> the read-through would be to sell walgreens also. they are talking about these network pharmacy problems or losses, it would seem, to walgreens, to your point. market share losses and negative operating leverage seems worse than expected, given 40 million script losses. >> and target lower than
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expected but they took over target. >> right. >> but they're saying, look, with deals with prime and tri-care is the reason for the 40 million and they called out walgreens deals. these are walgreens deals with prime and tri-care, with two networks that went to walgreens. but again, i understand the way the game is played. if you see cvs down, you're going to sell walgreens, it doesn't matter. but i am saying that from the conference call it wasn't at all clear that this wasn't share take because walgreens has a very different relationship. these are both very smart companies and cvs kind of takes my breath away. >> that's a significant decline. >> what people say is, listen, cvs will have to take that business back somehow, so what are they going to do? >> cut price. >> so that could be the negative about walgreens. but it's clear that the network deals that they're talking about, which are the prime and try care deals are deals that walgreens is the winner for. so i can understand when jpmorgan says don't sell walgreens on this, but it's big. let's quickly get to
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valeant. the talk may be down as much as 30%. the company did not report good numbers but the talk really started its descent when the call began, the conference call. let me share a couple of things from joe papa. if you ask me how i feel about the quality of the revised guidance, i feel good about it but i'll have more confidence when we put out our 2017 guidance and more confidence at the end of the first quarter of 2017 and so on. there could still be surprises yet to be discovered. not trying to alarm anyone, i'm just letting you know that as time passes, our forecast and guidance will improve. that was the cfo, not ceo, joe papa. that didn't help confidence overall. and they continued to talk about ebita week down. you're talking about sales declines as a result of part of lower prices being realized. they did offset to a certain
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extent by higher volumes in their products. but bausch & lomb was down, salex sales were not as good as they might have expected to be. they're in the process of selling salex. they spent $16 billion on it. >> did you confirm that it is for sale? >> i've confirmed that it's an $8.5 billion price with a royalty stream, but they spent $16 billion, including the debt they took on, which will stay on valeant's balance sheet. when you've got ebitda going down, your ratio goes up. >> now, we know they repaid $450 million of additional permanent debt. they only have $160 million of mandatory term loan repayments. >> they don't have near term maturi maturity, especially given the
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sale of the salex business, which is in process. but it's still going the wrong way. >> and it's obvious that they could be violating covenants, right? >> that's a concern. we'll monitor the call. whatever else did or happened on that, buck you see valeant, when is the last time that stock saw 13? it's been a while, right? in fact, i don't have a 52-week low of that low. >> look, there's a lot of people who were -- wells fargo was an incredible bear and i got tired of seeing how bearish they were and they were using a $17 kind of low point there. >> between valeant, cvs and hertz. >> is that the hurts kind? >> we'll talk about that. we'll get cramer's mad dash and count down to the opening bell. catch our special election coverage beginning at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. another look at the premarket on this election day and more "squawk on the street" is straight ahead.
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all right. we've got about six minutes till we get to that opening bell. we've got a mad dash. i want to talk hertz. >> this has been a disaster. can i just say point black, this has just been one of the worst stocks to own in the year. >> look at this. >> this is one of the worst stocks in the year. give us a longer one. one of the things that's really upsetting is they never point blank say how bad things are going. softer volumes. get this one. vehicle depreciation surprise. they straight line depreciate. what's so hard about that?
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maybe because of used cars they thought they would get more valuation for used cars. higher operating expenses and recall. >> right. >> they went and let them all merge, david. the justice department said, hey, all you guys get together. you can do whatever the heck you want. it was like that and the airlines were like, we're doomed because people said hertz took the rates right up after they merged. >> that's a strange-looking chart. >> there were very prominent people behind this stuff. >> this has taken so many hedge funds who love this stock, love the deal. remember the big deal they did. >> the deal, the deal! >> got in on the deal and then the spin of the rental equipment. >> so how could they have higher expenses? >> it has just been one thing after the other culminating today. >> people finally just said, listen, i've had enough of the rental car business. >> five years, it's done 90%. >> that's a suboptimal figure. >> and a $2 million market value. >> this company was created to
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destroy hedge funds. wasn't that what happened? let's put together a destructor of hedge funds. there was no way if you divide it among three companies they'll go head to head. they went head to head, they stole each other's business, they went after corporate accounts. these are vicious competitors, and they got high operating expenses. >> it's really sad. it's supposed to be a sad face. >> i thought that was cash flow analysis. >> we've got more. of course the opening bell. we'll keep an eye on shares of valeant, not just hertz, and cvs. some other important earnings to keep an eye on too. the pursuit of healthier.
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. you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell in just about 30 seconds. it is election day finally here after an exhausting, some say difficult period for the country. definitely tested voters' endurance. either way, it is going to be historic. either we get the first female
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president or a massive shift in the gop and all sorts of very important policies for business and markets. let's get the opening bell on the s&p at the bottom of your screen. at the big board today it's etf securities doing the honors and at the nasdaq kinsale capital group, a holding company for kinsale insurance company. jim, we talked about market reactions to a trump win. if it's clinton, did yesterday's rally mean that tomorrow's action will be more muted? >> i thought so. i thought that they really stole a lot of the upside. now, you saw a lot of the international stocks do well, you saw a lot of the drug stocks do well. the drug stocks -- i'm looking for drug stocks, they are historically cheap. so if you can find some that are not in a price war, you might be in good shape. that could make sense. the international stocks reported -- there's some very good numbers that have come out. but the banks, we had some downgrades today of the banks. i could not disagree more with
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these banks downgrades. deutsche says take profits and bank of america. what profits? what am i missing here? take profits? take the 38 cents that you made in bank of america since 2011? >> the stock is up 0.12 today. >> goldman? i saw lloyd in a trump ad for hillary. the valuation looks full. the valuation is the book value. i had beth mooney on from key. they had a great quarter and this has got to be because the indians lost. i can't find anything that really makes sense for me. these bank stocks are cheap. that's the cleveland indians reference. lebron -- >> they got an nba championship. we'd kill for any kind of championship here in new york. drug stocks and the election certainly have been a focus, jim, but i think it's also important to focus on california and one of their propositions.
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it's very close, apparently, very, very close. if you're unfamiliar, this would provide va pricing on drugs to government employees in california. i think i've got that right. and as you might imagine, the drug industry is not particularly happy with the prospect of that, given they would like a free market. who can blame them? and they're afraid it will set precedent and other states could follow. although frankly, guys, in trying to implement something like this, it becomes very hard to imagine how they would go about doing it. california is known for propositions of all types, some of which never actually even if approved come to fruition. that's a big one in california to keep an eye on. >> it is hard to implement, it is hard to implement. >> right. or the drug companies pull out of california. >> there's $4 billion at stake. my late father used to go to the va hospital. i think he probably went there four times a week. he loved them. i'm not kidding.
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it was like a place for him to go, they were really nice. and the stuff at the va, the prices that they offered were -- >> the lowest price. >> it was like a great bargain. i said, pop, what are you getting? i don't know, i just go to the va, it's a great price. >> they are rewarding them for their service. >> i know that the va is very criticized. can i just say that the philadelphia va, great doctors, fabulous help. it just couldn't be better. so i know the va is under fire everywhe everywhere, and i've got a salute to the troops later this week, but maybe they're viewed unfairly because sometimes they do something right. >> we talked about coal and the run it's been on, copper just hit a high. >> yes. i have been doing a thesis. i haven't been able to articulate it because there's so much stuff about the election. but i've got a bunch of indicators about china that are flashing so bright green it's really incredible, whether it be
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the aerospace orders they put through, or the retail orders, including ali baba that are very good, the orders from united technologies. >> the knock on the run is not it's demand driven, it's all spl supply driven. >> almost every company that had china exposure had good things to say about china. and, you know, to leave this thing out is -- forget about how china is doing is a major mistake. china is doing better than we think. it's the consumer. go over -- a lot of this is influenced by greg creed. he's got such great data about actual granularity about things. i heard there hasn't been a new mall built in this country. >> we don't need more malls. >> judging from the holiday
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hiring, it's over stored still. >> but china is dramatically understored and if you were on that ali baba conference call, that was quite a bullish call. i know the stock didn't go up. >> no, it didn't. >> >> but it had a run in advance. we had a hertz presentation delivering alpha. >> that was two years ago. >> by bill miller. >> that was -- bill miller was valeant. >> and robbins was -- >> that was two years ago or three years ago. we haven't delivered on the -- well, some of the ideas have been. >> so valeant this year is not looking as good. >> no, it isn't. let's revisit valeant, right around 14 bucks, down around $5, 27% decline. you see it right there. a new 52-week low for the stock and it does appear on the call where they lowered or made it very specific, they do expect revenue to be down compared to 2016 saying the primary drivers
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are in neurology and several brands losing excluesivity. including the sale of the salex drugs that they acquired for $16 billion less than two years ago. their debt-to-ebitda ratio is going up but they don't have a lot of things near term. let's call it $8.5 million up front. >> if everyone knows from this conference call that you're hurting, don't you play hard ball trying to buy salex? >> they already are. they're paying half of what they spent for it. isn't that hard ball? >> if i'm salex, i'm saying, listen, you know what, i'm withdrawing my offer. here's what i would say. here's my offer, nothing. and you can pay the salex license. >> they are dealing with price
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decreases on a number of -- >> hello, that's been the theme. >> bausch & lomb will be most of this company because it's already 47% of revenues, so it will be a much larger percentage. it will be most of the company. >> so antitrust would never left any company in that industry buy bausch & lomb. >> you're selling what would be the vast majority of the revenues once they have done the deal. >> it's rather extraordinary when it comes to -- contact lenses wasn't antitrusted but i'm just saying that bausch & lomb has caught up. have you ever ripped open a bottle? it's -- i'm not kidding you. you know what it's like? >> water? >> salty water? >> salty water. >> you, you! >> that's how you win "jeopardy" by answering like that. >> yeah, but watson is killing it.
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how about did you see the op-ed piece, block chain. >> block chain. >> okay? >> that's like swordfish. block chain. >> let's get to bob pisani and see what's moving on the floor. the dow is down 36. good morning, bob. >> good morning, carl. asia modestly higher, europe is on the mixed side but very narrow trading range. we're mixed here in the united states. generally open down. after a one-day rally, that's the first line is the drug stocks. drug stocks are under pressure once again there. energy also under a modest amount of pressure as oil is still hovering around the $44 range. even banks have been down a little bit here today, so the only thing up, telecom, which has been a downward trend for a while. in the drug section, the drugstores all down rather noticeably on that very disappointing cvs number. it was the 2017 guidance that was rather shocking. so the midpoint of their guidance is 585 for 2017.
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the consensus was 6.50. rarely do you see anyone move the numbers down on a company that size. as you see down 15%. let's move on and talk about what's going on now and with the elections. the rally yesterday, a lot of port mo postmortems. volume as we closed lower than the nine previous days. we had nine down days where the volume was bigger every single day than what happened yesterday. so what does this tell you? it tells you mostly it seemed to be short covering going on tland wasn't a lot of what matt maly called high conviction buying. so some of the rally was a little bit suspect yesterday. if you take a look here, we heard a lot of comments over the weekend about fading the rally if clinton wins. this is sort of having a moment right now. they said it's completely plausible that if clinton wins,
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any sort of relief rally in equities is faded as a lot of technical damage on the charts is happening because markets might also be coming down by the house and the overall environment can remain contentious and therefore volatile. isi is very typical, they ask professional investors, clinton wins, 83% believe the market will rally in the week after the election. after six months, 70% believe the market is still up. if trump wins, 93% believe the market will be down in the week after the election. after six months half believe it will be flat to up. you put this up with the type of surveys that you have here and you combine it with yesterday's rally, carl, and it tells you the risks are very, very a symmetric right now. the market is clearly poised for some kind of clinton victory and if it doesn't happen, we'll see some real volatility. right now, the dow down 23 points. >> i saw some similar situations
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earlier in the year. thanks, bob pisani. let's get to the bond pits and check in with rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. boy, everything thinks they have everything figured out. we're going to have some fun tomorrow. the global sovereign market is really hunkered down. if you look at the way they moved sharply yesterday after the response to the equity markets of programs that boosted equities based on various aspects of the u.s. selection, whether it was twos, tens, boons, gilds, oats, everything moved to a level and are hovering there. let's look at october 1st, look at the two-year and the pattern there and look at how the short maturities, even with all the issues of central banks gives way to really the long end where most of the proactive rate rise and very little retracing has been. you see the ten-years there. you see bund yields.
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bunds 15 yesterday, 15 today. let's look at what's going on with the gilt market. you can see how the patterns are so identical even though fundamentals are so different. if we look at italy, italy is the one where not only does the pattern look aggressive, just think it's covered 40 basis points in early october. it's hovering at the highest closing yields in one year. they have a referendum coming up as well. referendums, brexit, u.s. elections, these are all sharing a common denominator. look at the dollar index. it is starting to come around a little bit, but the dynamics of the central banks seem to be at least in the short term giving way to the election. so put the dollar index sort of in that long end sovereign camp. hunkered down after a sizeable move and response to yesterday's global equity rise. carl, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you very much. rick santelli.
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as you probably know, we're gearing up for tonight's special election coverage here at cnbc. we want to get to dominic chu back at hq with a behind-the-scenes look. >> hey, carl. so all morning we've shown you a little bit about what we're going to be doing for decision zone in your money, your vote. i want to take you now to the control room where all of the stuff will be happening later on tonight. we're a little less than nine hours away from that. come on in with me. it's a little empty right now, but as the day progresses, all of these rows will start lining up with people, directors, producers, technical staff. we'll go over here with keith. and keith, what we have right here is our board, right? our decision zone where we're going to be able to show you all of those in-depth looks at specific locations all across the country, because all of the nbc owned and operated affiliates will be feeding stuff and we'll be watching all of it here. we'll zoom in on those particular races that are the most important, whether or not it's a conciliatory speech, anybody to make a statement,
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anything of that variety. can we pull of some of these -- you can see we've got a couple of different polling locations, live looks there. we'll also take a look. what's rem 319, is that the javitts center? that's where hillary's camp will be today, later on tonight. so we'll have look-ins all over the place and that's the reason this is going to be key. remember, nine hours away, 7:00 p.m. eastern time, your money, your vote, decision 2016. guys, back over to you. >> dom, it's going to be great, we're excited for it and we'll see you tonight as well. dominic chu back in the control room. >> i'll be feeding to you during my live show and congratulations on the great honor to be able to anchor the coverage, which is just going to be magnificent. hats off to you, man. you are iron pants. remember, iron pants? that's you. >> important day, important night for sure. we're going to head to mike pence's home state in a few minutes.
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phil lebeau is there live this morning. hey, phil. >> hey, carl. if you want to vote here in indiana, the polling place here at baylor's market, there's the end of the line. you might be saying that doesn't look too bad. leave the toilet paper aisle and go over to the liquor section and you'll see how long this line is. a report from here in indiana when "squawk on the street" returns.
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key issues on the minds of indiana voters. phil lebeau is live on the ground in terre haute. >> reporter: long lines here in indiana. in fact we're here at basler's market. back there is where people vote. before they can vote, they have to wait in line. these folks waiting in line, we'll go all the way to the end, you will see how long it is. it's about a 35, 40-minute wait and we'll stretch all the way back here. now you're all the way back into the yogurt, juice, and it goes
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around the corner all the way over to the produce section. by far when we talk with people, almost everybody says the same thing of the it's not necessarily that they're voting for one candidate, it's that they're voting against the other candidate. here's a sample of what we've heard from some of the voters here in indiana. >> i actually voted for hillary. i'm for hillary. i'll all for her, what she stands for. i was with obama both terms, so pretty much what he says. i'm all for hillary. >> i voted for trump because the thought of having him president is less scary than having hillary as president. >> i voted for hillary clinton because i just don't think donald trump is ready to be in office yet as a president. i just don't think -- i know she's kind of crooked, but my best choice right there. >> reporter: i would say if there's one issue driving people here in indiana, at least the people we've talked to here in terre haute, it's the economy. while unemployment is lower here than it was during the
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recession, it's still higher than the national average. we've heard time and again from folks, look, we know there's an economic rebound going on, but we don't feel like we're seeing all of it here in terre haute. guys, we're going to be here all day long. this is a bellwether. this county here has voted in favor of whoever gets elected all except for two times since 1888. we'll see who they pick today. guys, back to you. >> phil, thank you very much for that great, important story. jim. >> i can't wait. i'll be interviewing phil this evening, just to get a sense because phil has covered so many different beats. i count five winners. tyson, pepsi, general mills, coke and kellogg from that line. potential shoppers. kellogg is up two bucks. could be related. general mills is flying. >> but his point about workers and manufacture -- >> but this is amazing. where he is, this has been the core of the battleground. leave it to phil to be right where you have to be and also to have a great sense of american
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manufacturing. probably i think the best of any of the people we work with, which is why i want to go to him on aerospace, which is one of the key areas that is still a growth area of our country. >> i can't wait. be sure to watch our special coverage tonight. of course that begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern right here on cnbc. we'll get style trading with jim in a moment. the dow is down 58. don't go away.
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time for cramer and stop trading. >> i was listening to that on the way to work today. not! now, in this day of gloom, other than the fact the food stocks are up, priceline has been a company i've been recommending for about a thousand points. why? because the snobs on wall street have never used it. but once again, this time it's the hotel rooms, the gross bookings and room night growth, extraordinary. people keep underestimating this because is there a wall street guy that would ever look at priceline to be able to get a better deal? but if you own an inn, like i do, priceline, speexpedia.
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>> you still open that inn? we don't hear about the inn that much, we hear a lot about the bar. >> is there another line of service industry -- >> i have an idea for a small play, i'm not going to mention the country. but the rents have started to come down and i'm going to surprise you with another joint that i'm thinking about. >> i think you need to panel these like a cramer night. you start at bar san miguel, you stay at the b & b. >> the kids grow up. when the kids grow up, you've got a void that you can drive an 18-wheeler through and you've got to fill it with bars and taverns and inns or else you just sit there and say what happened, i miss that soccer game, they grew up. where were they. this is what happens to you. never miss a game. i missed the championship game because the market was -- i don't even remember what happened. i was told to be there and i went and i missed the championship game and i have apologized to my daughter at least 200 times and i was in the wrong. go to the games. they're more important than what we do. >> they are. what's on "mad" tonight?
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>> all right. we're going to you. we're going back and forth with the best of the best. we've got everybody in the field. i just think that this is one where i have to learn from the people like brian in ohio and phil in indiana. you know, i'd love to see wapner. he's going to be at trump headquarters. i'm going to try to pull in everybody and i also have two groups of stocks that win either way. so if you want to make money or you just want to sit there and cry in your beer, i'll make money for you. i'll make money either way. no, i'll make money for you. and then if you cry in your beer, i can do well. >> "mad" will take you all the way to when the first polls close. >> i remember when i first got in the business. man, the guys who just sit there and do it, wow. you're doing it! >> jim, we'll see you at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. when we come back, more perspectives on the election and what's at stake for the markets. our special coverage begins at 7:00 following "mad money"
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tonight. don't go away. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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for decades, investors have used a 60/40 stock and bond model, with little in alternatives. yet alternatives can tap opportunities that traditional assets can't. and even though they're called alternatives, they're actually designed to help meet very traditional goals. that's why invesco believes people should look past conventional models and make alternatives a core part of their portfolios. translation? goodbye 60/40, hello 50/30/20. ♪ good tuesday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street."
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it is election day and the markets as of now down some 49 points after the big rally yesterday watching the s&p down to 2124, oil a lot of other things probably going to get overshadowed today, including jolts, which we're getting right about now and evans speaking this morning. 4x is going to be key, sara, especially as we move in later tonight as investors try to make bets on things that will swing wildly depending on the wild come. >> this is the ultimate litmus paper for the markets, not just because it's open 24 hours a day. immediately you'll see how the market reacts to all of the states that come in but it has been an indicator in the election. the dollar to the peso has been the trump proxy, that weaker peso that has gotten weaker and all the way down to a record in september as trump momentum surged. it's been rallying over the last 48 hours, slightly today, but
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like most markets across stocks, bonds and currencies, you're seeing a pause after what was, yes shall the biggest day for all three indices since march, the s&p, dow and nasdaq. >> as we said, it's election day in america. after more than 16 months of campaigning, the voting is officially under way this morning. as hillary clinton and donald trump wait for the official returns, at issue for investors, the future of trade, taxes, regulation, all those policies. i'm certain of course the potential for that december fed rate hike looms. we'll chat in a moment with financial services round table ceo tim pawlenty who is here but first, forget the polls, today's votes and all those early votes are all that matter. our chief washington correspondent john harwood has more on just where the race stands. hey, john. >> well, we've got a lot of vote already cast, carl, because you know that early voting is on the rise in the united states. in some states, in fact, we have all mail-in voting and don't
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even have election day voting. but just for those who were still to vote to try to rally their bases, donald trump and hillary clinton were out vagabonding yesterday in all of the battleground states that they value the most. donald trump closed his campaign in the state of michigan with an appeal to rally his base against a corrupt establishment. >> there is one core question for you to consider. do you want america to be ruled by the corrupt political class or do you want america to be ruled by you, the people. that's what it is, by the people. >> hillary clinton closed her campaign in raleigh, north carolina, a state president obama won in 2008, lost in 2012. her campaign thinks they can block donald trump from are getting to 270 by carrying it. she appeared with lady gaga and closed with an inspirational message about governing after the election. >> i want you to know and i want
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you to spread the word, i do want to be president for all americans, not just some, not just the people who support me and vote for me. i want to be president for everyone, because we all have a role to play in building that better future for our country and for each of you. >> if you look at this nbc news battleground map, you can see why she's got reason to be optimistic. a lot of blue, different shades. some more certain than others, but over 270 electoral votes is what she needs to become president. donald trump has got chances. if he can take ohio, if he can take north carolina, if he can take georgia, florida, and flip one of those states, maybe michigan, maybe pennsylvania, he has a shot at winning this thing. but the odds makers don't think it's a very big shot. take a look at the "new york times" upshot odds. 84% for hillary clinton. nate silver is lower, around 70. the princeton malls is higher.
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then you look at the other races on the ballot. house and senate, which will determine if hillary clinton wins how she can govern. democrats need to gain four seats to take control. her vice president could break the tie if she wins. they have got a good shot at doing that. it's not a sure thing at all, however. a lot of close races around the country. the one thing that is highly likely in this election is the house of representatives battle. democrats need to win 30 seats to take control. only about three dozen vulnerable republican seats. democrats have to almost run the table. they have got a narrow edge in the generic vote asking which party do you want to control congress. not an edge of -- wide enough margin to suggest that they can run the table, but we're going to have to wait and until until they count the votes, carl. >> appreciate that. our john harwood. we're honored this morning to be joined at post nine by former two-term minnesota governor and current ceo of the financial services roundtable, tim
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pawlenty is here. governor, it's good to have you, glad to have you back. >> good to be with you, carl. >> everyone always overplays these last-minute rallies of the campaigns but people noticed the last-minute attempt at minnesota. i wonder if you think there's any chance that state goes into play? >> sadly, no. it has the longest unbroken streak of any state of voting for democrat for president. it goes all the way back to richard nixon. >> it would be a surprise. >> yes. >> but you never know. what do you think -- what are your expectations for tonight? >> my expectations are that the data points are a hillary clinton victory. i'm not a clinton supporter but i think it may be closer than many anticipated. the clinton people over a year ago say they have got 245 electoral votes baked just because of the political demographics of these various states and that doesn't include six or eight other states so we could essentially stumble to the presidency and that's about what she's doing. >> if he does tip a blue state, what's most vulnerable for clinton?
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>> well, this wouldn't be a steal but if he could win florida and perhaps flip pennsylvania or michigan, that changes the map. >> we will see. some of the recent polling in pennsylvania appeared to be getting tighter, but that's going to be a race no matter what. >> governor, on your own position, you came out after the "access hollywood" tape, i believe, and withdrew your support for donald trump. >> that's right, sara. i think you have to have a minimum level of knowledge, discipline, character and judgment to be president of the united states. i certainly have my issues with hillary clinton and i'm not supporting her, but i could no longer support donald trump. >> so are you abstaining from voting? >> i've already early voted in minnesota many weeks ago but i will let you know i didn't vote for hillary clinton. >> you wrote in somebody? what do you do in a situation like that? >> well, you've got to be a little creative. >> you know, governor, i do wonder, let's assume you're correct and hillary clinton is the president-elect. as somebody who's running the financial services roundtable, what are your expectations when it comes to the key questions of tax reform, corporate tax reform, the ability to actually
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bring money back from overseas, which is such a key focus, i know, for so many people in the business community. >> a great question. a good president or average president could get one or two things done in their honeymoon period. she's campaigning on a series of social justice issues, infrastructure, and you can see potentially a package if you included tax reform being put together. but you can see tax reform coming in the form of lower rates, but she's going to want revenue. that means cleaning up and streamlining deductions and exemptions. she said i want increased rates on certain income levels and certain businesses. >> the journal has a piece about repatriation profits and what that could mean for corporate tax, infrastructure you mentioned. but if we game this out and she wins, isn't the front end of her term going to be loaded with investigations? where are you going to find compromise for stuff like that? >> on the repatriation of
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foreign money, i could see that put in a package, used for infrastructure. it is one-time money but would represent some money for infrastructure. >> it's $2 trillion. not that a lot will come back but a lot might. >> the rest of her agenda includes more regulation, more taxes. in financial services she started out focused on shadow banking. let's get shadow banking into the regulated space and let's do something on carried interest. the direction probably has some merit to it but the rest of her agenda is a little more directed and specific at wall street. >> it sounds like you believe that congress will be willing to work with her. >> no, i don't know i'd go that far. if she wants to put together a package, there's some republicans that could vote for something like a reasonable increase in minimum wage, you could do repatriation for some income for infrastructure and in exchange get something for tax reform. >> do you expect house speaker ryan to face a internal -- >> i don't think he'll be seriously challenged, but he'll
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have his feet held to the fire if he tries to compromise too much. >> what about the senate? >> a coin toss. it could be 51-49. my personal prediction is the republicans barely hang on, 51-49. >> how would banks respond to a warren leading banking? >> look, the banks and other large financial institutions did things precrisis that needed a response and they got a response in the form of dodd-frank. now we're six or seven years removed from that and we want to strike the right balance between making sure things are properly regulated but not going so far that you stifle capital formation and deployment. and there's some adjustments or reforms within dodd-frank that i think would preserve that balance but still help the economy get beyond stagnant gdp growth. >> do you believe senator warren, chairman warren -- >> she doesn't like the financial services industry so she's outright hostile. other people in congress say we need to strike that balance. >> including the potential majority leader, mr. schumer. >> that's correct. >> do you think the republican
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party faces an existential crisis if trump does not win? clearly it is not a home for many republicans, including yourself. >> the republican party is doing well at the state and local level but you can't be a national governing majority party when you consistently lose young people, women, hispanics and latinos, other minorities and modest and blue collar workers. that is not a formula for a national majority. eventually you've got to get a better product or better marketing. so they're going to face a soul-searching moment here right after tomorrow. we're going to face it. >> we look forward to checking in with you after tonight. >> thank you. >> governor tim paw lenty. stay with us on cnbc. our special election coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern tonight. >> and ends tbd. when we return, trading your vote. where you should be putting your money ahead of tonight's decision. as you can see, a pause in the markets with the s&p down 0.3 of a percent. and how the next president will shape the economy. we'll speak with chief economists willem buiter.
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plus trump says nfl superstar tom brady voted for him. hear what brady had to say ahead of election day. there's a lot of confusion over this issue. we'll try to set it straight for you with the dow down 44 points. ♪ ♪
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it is finally here, election day in america. the polls are now open and the markets are moving pretty cautiously after logging their best day of gains since mar 1st.
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joining us to discuss the market and economic impact, bill e em buiter and john sweeney. john, after that big rally we saw yesterday, a little bit of give-back today. what is exactly priced in and how should investors view how the markets will react if hillary clinton does win? >> i think what we're seeing is some anxiety in the markets. when we surveyed investors, three-quarters were concerned about the impact of any president being elected and the impact of congress. in reality, it's just not a big driver. we look at earnings growth, we look at interest rates, we look at much more long-term factors as really driving the economy over the longer term. >> so are you a seller or buyer? >> at this point we're trying to convince people to stay the course. if you've got a plan, you like it, stick with it. have a long-term perspective and don't be worried about the short-term volatility in the market. you should expect some and
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you'll see it but take a longer term focus. >> how does it change whether it's president clinton or president trump? >> well, the immediate effect of the presidency, which i think is priced in would be minor financial market reaction, a little bit up, the stock market, do you recall down a bit, but nothing much. and i think basically continuity with the existing obama regime. if it were to be trump, it's not priced in, then unless he manages to pass his massive stimulus, it would require the republicans to also control both houses and to have a ryan republicans on the side, trump republicans and veto-proof -- not veto-proof, a filibuster proof 60 senators, very unlikely. so most likely there would be stock market down, yield curve
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down and a slowdown because of the fear of trade wars and adverse labor supply and immigration policies. >> would you go so far as to say recession? >> everything is possible. that would only materialize, i think, if and when the trade wars materialize. there could be some anticipation fear driven holding back on cap-ex but i think it's only when the triggers on nafta, on currency manipulation get pulled that i think that would be a real fear reaction, so it might be delayed a bit. >> john, what are you seeing in terms of client money? are there a lot of folks waiting on the sidelines for this election to be over and that could help drcreate a rally afterward? >> only about 15% people said they made a move or planned to make a move. when we looked at cash buildups, we didn't see significant cash buildup. we have seen a slowdown in trading overall, so you're anticipating there's some people
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sitting on the sidelines waiting to put money to work if there's an unexpected outcome. it's not a large percentage of people. it's the nervous, the confident and the bold investors. the nervous are worried about any unpredictable outcome. they don't have a plan. >> a lot of hedging going on. >> the confident investor understands there's going to be some volatility. when i look back at brexit or china in 2015, the markets have recovered smartly after those moves so we expect that most of the investors will be confident about it. and then you've got the police officers and the firefighters who are going to rush into danger and they have some cash on the sideline and they're going to look for dislocations in the market to be buying opportunities. >> what's the final word on brexit analogs to today? you buy them or not? >> i buy it as far as the same populism and resentment of immigration that drove brexit to a significant extent is also creating support for trump. and second, of course, turnout will determine the outcome.
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>> meaning age demographics? >> age demographics and age and ethnic. >> we have the electoral college, though. >> but that really doesn't make a difference to the reality that turnout will determine this election and the polls unfortunately will tell us how people would vote. they do not tell us how likely they are to vote. >> it occurs to me no matter who gets elected, the economic challenges that this next president will face are hard. it's not necessarily an easy fix. it's certainly not a fix the federal reserve can make, which president obama came in and had to stop the bleeding early in his tenure. we're facing issues like inequality and sluggish, chronically disappointing gdp growth, health care costs going up. how does the next president tackle some of these more sort of structural, ideological issues? >> it is a huge political challenge. the economics in some ways is really quite simple, right?
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more investment from infrastructure to education, permanent retraining, get those who are displaced by globalization and technical process. if you can't retrain them, have a guaranteed minimum income. but politics, impossible. i really think -- and of course health care has been a decade-long mess in this country with the most overpriced health care in the visible universe. and that will not change either. >> gentlemen, thank you. a lot to talk about there. as we head to break, take a look at shares of valeant pharmaceuticals. the stock is down as much as 20%. it is actually off its lows. it had been down as much as 25%. this after the company's earnings came in at a disappointing level and perhaps more importantly it guided to lower ebidta.
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when we come back, hillary clinton and donald trump preparing victory parties back at their separate headquarters in new york. we're going to head there, next. [ male announcer ] eligible for medicare? that's a good thing, but it doesn't cover everything. only about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." both hillary clinton and donald trump are in new york voting and readying their victory parties. eamon joins us this morning. >> reporter: good morning. yes, we're up on top of new york's high line park where we've got a great view of the javits center behind us. this is where hillary clinton will hold what her aides hope is a victory party tonight. hillary clinton voted earlier this morning in chappaqua, new york. this is a very new york-centric event today, hillary clinton voting along with the former president, bill clinton. we're expecting to hear from donald trump, we expect to see him voting at ps-59 on 56th street in just a few moments. any moment now we're expecting donald trump there. we saw a couple of protesters at that venue early, so we'll monitor that and keep an eye on that for you. donald trump's party tonight
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will be at the new york hilton midtown. that is just over two miles away from hillary clinton's venue tonight. you could walk there in just over a half an hour. that shows you how close these two campaigns are on the final day of this 2016 election season. guys, an election fun fact, this is the first time since 1944 that we've seen both candidates from the same state. that was also new york state. that was fdr versus wilke back in 1944. and, no, i did not cover that campaign, guys. >> yeah, we were really wondering that. eamon, thank you. >> that was before my time. donald trump wrapping up his campaign last night. at a rally in new hampshire, trump announced that tom brady had cast his ballot voting for him. listen. >> tom brady, he called today and he said, donald, i support you. you're my friend. and i voted for you.
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>> this has become an interesting election day subplot. last week we spoke with the nfl superstar quarterback, tom brady. he had been seen previously with the make america great again hat in his locker. when we asked about trump during a press conference, he walked out. we asked him if he supported the republican nominee and he wouldn't really say. listen. >> yeah, he sent me that hat when he first got into the race a long time ago, so, you know, i think religion is a little like politics and a little like medicine and a little like a lot of these other controversial thing, where there's never a right answer and never a wrong answer and there's a lot of people on different sides of the fence. so i believe that we're all responsible for doing our best to help change the world. >> and there's another twist. on instagram, a commenter on gisele's account on friday wrote gisele, i heard you and tom were backing trump. is it true? gisele responded no!
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there's some confusion about this. there are also reports that he did cast his absentee ballot. he posed with a picture. and he's dropping it off. >> but he didn't say who that was for in that photo. >> right. but trump claims credit. there have been some big athlete endorsements in this campaign. lebron james out there with hillary clinton. bobby knight for trump. >> right. when you get sports involved, there's a lot of attention paid. s.i. has a piece on this whole gisele thing this morning, so it's definitely getting some play. >> david cares. >> why are we showing pictures of gisele along with tom? shouldn't there be equal time? she's voting too. she's still a brazilian citizen? >> i don't know. when we come back this morning, our election day coverage will continue. we'll go to battle ground ohio and see what's at stake. where should you put your money ahead of tonight's decision? we'll talk to trump backer, billionaire investor wilbur
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ross. don't miss our special coverage tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. dow is down 26. a lot more still ahead, so stay with us. bhap hier. it begins from the second we're born. because, healthier doesn't happen all by itself. it needs to be earned every day. using wellness to keep away illness. and believing a single life can be made better by millions of others. as a health services and innovation company optum powers modern healthcare by connecting every part of it. so while the world keeps searching for healthier we're here to make healthier happen.
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good morning, everybody, i'm sue herera, here is your cnbc news update. as you know, election day has finally come. the first in the nation votes have been counted from three small towns in new hampshire. voting began just after midnight and closed after everybody had voted. donald trump winning over the voters there by a 32-25 margin over hillary clinton. iraqi kurdish fighters continuing to exchange fire with isis militants as they advanced from two directions into a town east of mosul. the offensive is part of a broader push to retake mosul. south korean prosecutors raided the offices of samsung electronics as part of a probe
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of a political scandal involving that country's president. samsung is reeling from a $5 billion hit from its smartphone recall. and southwest pilots have ratified a new four-year contract that includes higher pay and bonuses. about 84% of union members voted in favor of that agreement. the contract includes an immediate 15% pay raise. that's the news update this hour. i'll sending it back downtown to you, sara. >> all right, sue herera, thank you. let's get back to the election and zoom in on ohio. brian sullivan is in centreville, ohio, and he joins us with just what is at stake, brian. we were talking about how you always get the final day campaign stops from both candidates in ohio. they weren't there yesterday. >> reporter: yeah, but donald trump has already been here 26 times, the second most visits to any state outside of florida. hillary clinton has been here 16 times but she has outspent him 2-1 in television ads. sara, this is your home state. 18 electoral votes. 6:30 to 7:30 tonight is when the
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voting is open. we've been out here in bill's doughnut shop in centreville all morning talking to people. here is sort of on the western edge of ohio manufacturing is still key. it's not what it was, but jobs and the economy seem to be at the forefront of everybody's minds. listen. >> many areas here in ohio are blue collar areas, so jobs are very important to us. >> employment availability, decent jobs, not farming out to india and such. >> obamacare is one of the biggest things. i didn't see that as a good thing to begin with. it hurt a lot of the small businesses. >> things have gotten better than what it was, say, six months or a year ago. but there's still a lot of struggles here. there is still a lot of people that do need jobs. >> reporter: so we hear about jobs coming back. they have. in fact the last couple of years. but if you look at a longer term
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chart, according to the st. louis federal reserve, about the year 1999, 2000, we started to see manufacturing jobs across ohio and the dayton area map mirrors the same thing really fall off the map. you can see a little bounce back on the right side of the screen but over the past we'll call it 15 years, manufacturing jobs have really fled the state. coming up in "power lunch" there's a really interesting story of a former gm plant that shut down and is now a china-owned auto glass corporation. >> interesting. i know the trade arguments have really worked in ohio, but on the other side, brian, you have the governor, john kasich. he won the state in his primary. he's writing in mccain. he has not expressed any support for donald trump. and you have the revitalization of the cities, cleveland, columbus, cincinnati, sort of balancing that which still sort of makes it a toss-up, right? >> reporter: yeah, it's interesting. 88 counties in your home state, sara, and obama won 2008, 2012.
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2012 he only won 16 counties, but that was enough because of population to take it. so 88 counties, 16 carried the election in 2012. we might see that again in montgomery county which has gone democrat the last six elections. we'll see if that switched. we've talked to a lot of different people and heard a lot of different things. just based on the folks here in the coffee shop, it tends to be a little more red than blue but it could be a long night. we interviewed the secretary of state earlier. that will run on "power lunch." i hate to be the bearer of bad news, there may be 150,000 ballots that roll in over the next few days, provisional ballots from overseas and late voters. so if it's a really, really close race in ohio, it may not be settled. >> all right. something to watch, brian. >> reporter: don't blame the messeng messenger. >> polls close at 7:30. >> reporter: and go browns. >> brian sullivan in the buckeye state. that looks like a great bakery. with us to discuss some of these
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politics is president campaign advisor author of "best worst president." and former advisor to governor mike pence, phil musser, good to see you both. on ohio, since brian set the scene there, it does feel like, yes, no republican has ever won the white house without winning the state of ohio, but it does feel like she can afford to lose ohio and may even be planning to if she gets some of the other battleground states. am i wrong? >> no. you're right. the conventional wisdom and the polling suggests that donald trump has got a significant lead in ohio. i think brian's reporting confirms that. the worst case scenario would be an uncertain outcome in ohio or any kind of uncertain outcome out of this election because i think the consequences of a very angry populous could be very stark and very severe. you're talking to someone that was in the florida recount in
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2000 banging on the door counting chads. >> what's the probability of that at this point? >> i think it's very low. i think where you should be watching is on the other side of the ledger, can trump flip a state like michigan where he closed his campaign out at 11:00 last night. really as voters start to tune in, you need to be watching florida, north carolina, michigan, new hampshire and then arizona because in a lot of ways, those are the ones that represent the two sides of the argument. is it going to be an expanded white vote that drives the outcome of this election to donald trump or will it be a larger group of minority -- the minority majority population in this country that's ultimately going to be a force to be reckoned with in the decade ahead that powers a win for clinton in, say, arizona or in south florida and two counties in broward and miami-dade. >> what's on your watch list? >> look, i think ohio is tremendously important. as somebody who worked for john kerry in 2004, we saw ohio basically be a site of a lot of anxiety. and john kerry ultimately lost it. we're looking a lot at voter
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intimidation efforts by donald trump's campaign and then also the suggestion or the implication by the trump campaign that this somehow election is rigged. so i think there's -- i do think that there are sort of processes in place to ensure that votes are counted. i think that what this does is shows the tremendous influence of the rust belt states. this is a political force going forward for the next ten years. i agree with phil on that. but i don't think the electoral math adds up for the trump campaign. even if he wins ohio, you know, it's unlikely that he'll win pennsylvania, florida, these other states that are coming through. and so i think what it does show us is that every vote does matter and that people should get out to vote today. i think hillary clinton's message of economic opportunity and sort of remedying the economic disparity that exists in this country while growing the global economy is resonating. she hasn't been sort of slashing and burning with this rhetoric of demagoguery that donald trump has suggested and scapegoated
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china, scape goegoated mexico, scapegoated wall street. there's a message from hillary clinton that i think is more motivating to voters. i hope it is. >> let me give you one operational point. i think a lot of the rhetoric around the integrity of the ballot process is overblown. we spent a lot of election days in the political consulting business kind of obsessing about little things that happened there. john heusted, the ohio secretary of state, he's going to run a good election. i'll be interested to see the interview he'll do later. i think americans should have confidence in the process, overwhelmingly at the state level. i think that americans are more prepared to count votes accurately than ever before. >> what margin, right, of evs, electoral votes, would you expect trump to maybe contest? is it 20, if he loses by 10, 5? >> it's a case-by-case scenario, right? so if it's close in florida or if it's close in ohio, ultimately there are processes in place to go in and challenge
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those individual states. >> can you imagine donald trump giving a concession speech? i think this could get ugly tonight. if there's any slim margin, any slim margin whatsoever, i think this has been -- there will be a continuation of the politics of delegitimatization that donald trump has been putting forward since he tried to make president obama illegitimate, on illegitimate president with the b birther movement. so i just hope his supporters aren't susceptible to that kind of rhetoric, that kind of sore loser sort of ship, but we'll see what happens for sure. i agree there is integrity in the system and we should all have confidence of it. >> we'll end on that note of agreement. >> everyone in the political consulting business is glad it is almost over. >> no kidding. >> thank you. >> so of resorts in the caribbean. >> stay with us tonight. our special election coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time. speaking of that special
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election coverage, dom chu joins us with a look behind the scenes in what we're calling the cnbc decision zone. hey, dom. >> all right. so what we've got here in our newsroom is a look at what we're going to be looking at for graphics. we're going to go to our wall right on the other side of this on our main set here. as we move over to this side here, you can kind of take a look at some of the assets that we have in the field already. you've seen them all morning. but again, contessa, jane, all these guys spread across the country. now we'll show you where we're going to augment your experience as a viewer. can we see the decision zone. this is what we have here. all of the cameras for nbc affiliates all across the country. the idea here is we're going to give investors and traders all of the information that they need to make the most informed decision possible. if there is action anywhere in this country that impacts the overall election and the markets, you're going to be able to see it. we'll take you right to it. the intention, guys, is to make sure that as a viewer, you can
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settle in tonight, sit down there, tune into cnbc and don't worry about touching that remote because if something happens anywhere across the country, we're going to change the channel for you. all of this kicks off at 7:00 p.m. tonight night. back to you. >> it's a great look behind the scenes, dom, thank you. take a look at shares of cvs. they are falling hard, down almost 14% after reporting revenue that fell short of estimates and the company cutting its full-year forecast after seeing slowing prescription growth. separately, cvs announced a new $15 billion stock buy back program. a vote for trump is a vote for growth so says our next guest, wilbur ross. ents itsel american express open cards can help you take on a new job,
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or fill a big order or expand your office and take on whatever comes next. find out how american express cards and services can help prepare you for growth at open.com.
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today on trading nation, we take a look at the five stocks that have done the best during this political election.
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what can these names tell us about the market going forward? find out on trading nation.cnbc.com. more "squawk on the street" coming up.
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welcome back to "squawk on the street." financial markets -- lag ards include citizens financial, also capital one. huntington and keycorp. also the kbe down a percent as well on track for its first negative day over the last four, sara. back over to you guys. >> a little caution after that big rally. dom, thanks. quick news alert for you out of europe. the british supreme court has ruled that the recent article 50 ruling can be appealed. remember, that ruling said that a parliamentary vote was necessary to kick off the so-called brexit talks, invoking article 50. uk stocks jumped to session
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highs following this ruling. the british pound actually lost some of its earlier gains. the bottom line is this, the high court is now going back and forth over the legality of whether parliament needs to be able to vote on triggering those brexit talks. they're in uncharted territory after the country voted by a majority to leave the eu. we'll watch these markets closely. now let's get over to rick santelli in chicago with a very special guest. rick. >> thank you, sara. i'd like to welcome my special election day guest, wilbur ross. wilbur, thank you so much for taking the time on this election day. >> glad to be on with you, rick. >> let me tell you something. obviously it's been referenced several times on cnbc, you wrote an op-ed in october in "the wall street journal," a vote for trump is a vote for growth. in the article you talk about donald trump creating 25 million new jobs, reducing regulations, cutting taxes. how are you going to get to that number? i see people like mark zandy
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who's the poster child now for how hillary clinton's administration would perform. he says donald trump would lose 2.7 million, hillary will gain 10.4 million. can you explain why there's two major different interpretations on trump and the jobs? >> if you look back at zandy's forecast historically, he's not been right for many, many years. he said that the obama plan to turn the country around would produce millions and millions of jobs very, very quickly. it did not. remember too that moody's and s&p are the ones who brought us the subprime crisis by overevaluating the quality of asset-backed securities. so i think zandy is a partisan person. he does not have a good statistical basis for what he's doing. and even the left-leaning tax
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policy center agrees that trump's plan will be better for jobs near term than hillary's. >> now, mr. ross, wilbur, would you say that the following is mostly or totally true, down here most of the traders think that hillary for the most part is a status quo candidate, that things aren't going to be hugely different than the last two-term president, president barack obama. on the other hand, the change aspects of donald trump not being a politician, there's a lot of unknowns there. i guess what i'm getting at is what exactly is the growth going to come from if we are status quo? is status quo going to improve? if we had a third term barack obama, what would the country look like, different or similar to what it will look like if hillary clinton wins? >> i think the equivalent of a third term barack obama means that we will go into a recession within the next two years. we're already pretty long in the
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tooth even though this recovery is the weakest we've had in decades and decades. but i think that hillary's policy, the one thing that will be sure if she gets it through is taxes will go up on businesses. she's announced a $275 billion tax increase. remains to be seen whether any of her infrastructure plan, which is what's meant to offset that, will ever come through. in addition, the tax reductions she's giving, most people, most families will get between $100 and $140 a year. that's 28 to 37 cents a day. that's not going to do much to stimulate the economy. they'd have to save up for days and days to buy one cigarette. >> i guess my final question, sir, is a simple one. the status quo from a market perspective i don't think has been good. we have reduced growth, reduced
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productivity. if we see change, initially markets aren't going to like it because they have been floating on helium. is there enough horsepower in the cutting of the taxes, reducing the regs, you know, unleashing energy, changing the affordable care act to get us over that hump of going through withdrawals over what really has been supported market structure? >> i think that as soon as trump announces his cabinet choices, the market will feel better. just as he made a very good decision with his potential supreme court nominees, they were generally viewed as sensible, just as he made a good personnel decision picking mike pence as his running mate, i think he comes out with a very good business-oriented, nonsilly cabinet and i think that will calm people down. >> wilbur, thank you so much. always interesting to hear your viewpoints, considering how many
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companies you've owned, how many people have been hired. it seems like you're an expert in a lot of things economic. sara, back to you. >> all right, rick, thank you for that conversation. now let's send it over totauschn battleground boulder, colorado, with a look at what's coming up next on "squawk alley." good morning, kayla. >> good morning, sarah. a modern day purple state because its voting history hasn't followed a consistent pattern. it would likely have to include this state for trump to win. no republican has won the white house without winning colorado. goldman sachs said it could be either nevada or colorado that tips the eventual winner to 270 electoral votes. we're here on the campus where students have been getting out votes for 90 minutes. golf carts behind me will be taking students out to the polls to vote throughout the morning.
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we talked to them about their excitement, in some cases apprehension and the pulse of the mill enial vote here in boulder. that's coming up next on "squawk alley." >> big question as to the mill enial turnout. when we return here on "squawk on the street," issue of entitlements weighing heavily on voters in florida. wee wee come back now with the dow down only nine points.
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[pony neighing] what? hey gary. oh. what's with the dog-sized horse? i'm crazy stressed trying to figure out this complex trade so i brought in my comfort pony, warren, to help me deal. isn't that right warren? well, you could get support from thinkorswim's in-app chat. it lets you chat and share your screen directly with a live person right from the app, so you don't need a comfort pony. oh, so what about my motivational meerkat? in-app chat on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade. ah, beth. so the elevator is stuck again. with directv and at&t you can stream your favorite shows without using your data. that makes you more powerful than being stuck in an elevator with a guy with overactive sweat glands. sorry, rode my bike today. cool. hey it's your tv, take it with you. watch all your live directv channels, on at&t, data-free.
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diana, health care is front and center for voters this morning. >> good morning, sarah. if you think competition in this election is fierce, it's got nothing on pickle ball here. the majority of more than 7,000 residents have already voted. there are two polling stations right here in the community and they've also been pretty active this morning as well. we took a walk out on the golf course early to get a read on voter sentiment.
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vp of the ladies golf club told us she is very concerned about the future of programs like social security and medicare and more concerned that neither candidate had any plans to improve them. >> i'm 73 and i think a lot of people my age, who are still active adults, going out and doing things all day, still depend on some of those progr programs. medicare is a big problem. >> judy's husband, a veteran who worked for the army for 35 years, was equally concerned for the future of his seven grandchildren but he also worries about america's place in a changing world economy. >> russia seems to be doing what it feels like. china is moving into a whole new mode. we don't have any really naval presence in the china sea. we're losing respect all over the world. >> now, it's interesting. when i asked them about programs like social security, medicare, they were very concerned about the future of their children and
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grandchildren, but in the end they said really when it got down to voting, they couldn't get past the personalities and the nastiness of this election. the competition here. and that was really what made them make their decision in the end. back to you guys. >> bunch of key issues, diana. thank you. we're loving your live shot there. dave is ready to move out to kings point, florida. >> game they got going on there. >> all the activities, yeah. we'll have a look at this live shot here. upper east side where donald trump is set to emerge from the car where he is going to cast his ballot. no doubt, he will be voting for himself. we were expecting this in the 10:00 hour. looks like the suv has pulled up. there are long lines, as we've been hearing about a lot of polling places in manhattan. >> we've already seen hillary clinton vote this morning in chappaqua, a few miles from her home. her victory party, as they put
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it, is tonight at the javitt center. donald trump's is also in midtown manhattan. >> at the hilton. there is his wife, melania, and some of his offspring. >> queens born. we have that in common. >> what did you say? >> he's from queens, like me. >> certainly a new yorker. >> more of an east cider now, though. >> we saw senator tim kaine vote at 6:00 am out in richmond. still awaiting mike pence. with donald trump going into the polling station, that will do it for us here on "squawk on the street." our election coverage continues on "squawk alley." do not miss cnbc's election special at 7:00 pm. the dow currently down 13 points. these goofy glasses.
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yeah. well, we gotta hand it to fedex. they've helped make our e-commerce so easy, and now we're getting all kinds of new customers. i know. can you believe we're getting orders from canada, ireland... this one's going to new zealand. new zealand? psst. ah, false alarm. hey! you guys are gonna scare away the deer! idiots... providing global access for small business. fedex. so what else is new? humm..she's doing good. she needs more care though. she wants to stay in her house. i don't know even where to start with that. we take you back to public school 59 in new york city where donald trump is about to cast his vote for president after running a long and hard campaign. the final sprint took him all over the eastern united states,
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of course, with rallies, taking him to his final victory party tonight in new york city. the final rally was actually in michigan. state with 16 electoral votes. last win republican in 1968. definitely a strategy here in some of these states with no early voting to flip a blue state which will be important if he wants to win tonight. >> michigan was the big surprise with the polls in the primary. that was supposed to go for hillary clinton according to the polls. bernie sanders took michigan. does say something about their strategy, that he was in grand rapids. hillary clinton's midnight rally last night in raleigh, north carolina. so, clearly, those are two states you guys are going to be watching closely as the polls close. >> something else to watch is the hispanic turnout. there have been different reports about how high that has been. nevada, certainly that could prove to be important. early voting also another key state, by the way, for hillary clinton. and certainly in florida. >> in dade county, for sure.
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46.3 million early votes. the total in 2012 was less than that. so we'll see how much gets counted. >> i'll be watching the gender gap. i think that's something that people are watching this election. they've made it an issue. both candidates have. could be the highest in the modern day era. >> good morning, it is finally election day across the country and "squawk alley" is live. ♪ good tuesday morning. happy election day. kayla tausche is following the election live in

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