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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 9, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EST

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to your money. ist is wednesday, november 9th, 2016, and "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning and welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with melissa lee. we're going to be, of course, bringing you a full recap of this historic election. before we do that, markets, of course, have been reacting all night to trump's electoral victory. take a look at the equities this hour. as joe mentioned futures are down but not nearly where they were. just several years ago the dow looked like it would open down about 315 points. the nasdaq off about 105 points. the s&p 500 off about five
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points. all of this, uncertainty. >> how much were we up monday? >> about 380. >> about 380. >> we're back to where we started the week. >> it's 380. now it's 315. >> of course -- >> i know. >> of course, last night as those numbers were coming in -- >> rarely do we get to check the counterfactual and we did it with brexit at the end and it led to new highs around now we'll get to see the counterfactual. maybe lit go down, be cut in half. >> my suggestion was that only there will be a knee-jerk sell. >> you wrote a pretty good piece. >> once people try to analyze it -- >> how are we today? >> we're good. we're good. >> we rarely hug. >> we hugged this morning. >> that's because you're in such a good mood. >> i didn't get many e-mails. >> i was thing of you, joe. all of your hopes and dreams
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were materializing. >> really. okay. let's tell you what happened in asia overnight for those of you who were staying up but watching the polls. you probably saw what was going on in the asian markets there. things falling pretty well across the board. the nikkei down over 5%. the hang seng down over 2%. the shanghai composite down. let's take a quick look at europe. everything down across the board as well although not nearly as far down as it was earlier as we were watching all of this. i haven't watched electoral numbers come in like that and then the anchors go. and this is -- i'm talking about network news, the anchors go to the stockmarket, right? >> that's true. >> they start talking about what the s&p futures were. it's pretty remarkable. >> futured moved before it occurred to people. >> they talked about the peso and dollar and gold. >> i think that was with ohio
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still not called. florida still not called. >> michigan. >> michigan was even later. this is before anything had fallen into place, north carolina, georgia. that was your swing state. >> i will say the whole "squawk" devote thing was a whole education. i feel like -- it was. it was. >> i know. i'm glad. i want this entire process to be an education. i think -- it is. >> only in america. only in america. >> the abiding wisdom of the american public. can we -- it's not me. ite knows anything. it's the american public who did this. it's we're. that was a big deal. >> and what i said to you yesterday on the air is we now have a president and no matter what side of the aisle you're on, we've got to figure out how to make it all work. >> that was big league. i didn't say bigly. i said big league what happened.
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>> very much so. meantime other mover this morning we're watching come motty prices that we're seeing here. we've got wti higher by half a percent. gasoline also getting a bid. take a look at the currencies. we saw what was going on with the nikkei and that's really being driven by what's going on with the yen, the yen hitting a one month high. a closer look at the peso. we're seeing the peso much weeker. strengthens by about 8 1/2 percent. let's take a look at the gold. we have seen overnight a bid for safety once again. higher by 2.4%.
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the real interesting part we're seeing a bid for safety. the yields climbing on the back of the results. >> let's go to eamon javers. good morning. you were up until when? >> a little after 3:00. what time is it now? >> 6:04. >> good to know. >> i had to go finally at 1:30. people got mad in my house that i wasn't going to stay up. said, look. we have to be here. you look -- you're young. >> i look great. behon be honest. it was a confusion night. i was at the hillary clinton watch party. they thought they were going to be having a victory party, and, boy, they did not. as the night wore on you could feel the air leave the room. people started sitting on the floor at the javitz center. they turned the network off and put on a crowd cam and pictures
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of people in the crowd. they didn't want to see what was going on on the network new last night in the room. it was this moment where you felt like the clinton campaign wanted to continue to fight at 2:00 a.m. last night. we saw john podesta come out and address the crowd. at that point things had gone pretty south but the networks have not yet called everything. here's what john podesta said when he went to the stage to address the clinton supporters last night at 2:00 a.m. >> well, folks, i know you've been here a long time and it's been a long night and it's been a long campaign, but i can say we can wait a little longer, can't we? >> so at that moment, the clinton supporters leave the room. they feel like they're in for some kind of prolonged fight here, some kind of protracted end game, but at some point after that the clinton people took a real hard look at the data coming in, realize they couldn't continue.
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apparently hillary clinton called donald trump after that and then donald trump made his appearance afterward here in manhattan just about two miles away from where hillary clinton was. here's what donald trump said when he took the stage. >> i've just received a call from secretary clinton. she congratulated us. it's about us. on our victory. and i congratulated her and her family on a very, very hard fought campaign. i mean she fought very hard. >> we also know that president obama called donald trump last night. not clear whether they ultimately connected or not but we know the call was made from the president of the united states. the obama administration has said we'll extend every courtesy. we're going to have a peaceful transition of power in the united states of america as we always do. a dramatic and spectacular one.
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almost one known saw. there's going to be a lot of recriminations in that industry t political pundits industry and the political media as people figure out why are these seismic shifts able to happen in the united states and pollsters are not able to see that. something clearly went wrong with all the predicted efforts and now we're going to see as the trump team takes charge, we're going to see a rollout of the new administration. >> he said something to the effect of either everybody has lied to us on the way out of these polls or we have just totally gotten it wrong. it was a remarkable admission. >> the only exit poll worth it was strong leader. that's where you saw this could be weird. >> i think there's a couple of things going on. >> 80% for strong leader? >> yeah. i think one of the things is
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people don't answer their landlines anymore. i'm not sure that's necessarily what went on with the trump voters. i think a lot of the trump voters wouldn't necessarily take the call from a pollster. i wouldn't be necessarily inclined to talk to a pollster from another state asking them personal questions about their lifestyle and how they plan to vote. those voters expressed themselves last night in the only poll that counts and that's the one on election night. >> i think nate silver -- they do the best they can with the rcp stuff that they get. they have a system for it. but i mean there are some places that should be served a little crow today. "daily news." "huffington post," left it in the entertainment section. as a journalist post, they i thought was entertainment.
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>> what's that place? >> it's a journalist is tick world around this idea of trying to predict at all that because of nate silver and his success last election and the election prior there became this move toward data science. we kept talking about data science, that you could game these things out and "the new york times" had a meter last night, you could follow it. >> it blipped by the end. >> at some point in the night it did a 360. >> it's only as good as the data. >> it's only as good as the day too ta. >> and the data stinks. >> as a member of the mainstream media, it's going to be difficult to talk about this but the mainstream media is the loser in this. >> yeah. >> not just in trying to analyze what was happening but in trying to influence. >> there was so much speculation on what kind of concession
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speech would donald trump give, would he conceive, be generous. not an ounce of what kind of speech hillary clinton would give. nothing yet. no real analysis of. we do know we wrote two speeches yesterday, polished them off. what she's going to say today and when she's going to say it is still a little bit tbd but we expect to hear from her. >> okay. at many times i've said in the past. michael at the "new york post" has written on this. when you move from journalism to advocacy, that's bad line to cross. there was a point where there was mandated such a bad thing it main dated these guys to influence the election, not
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report on it. like the iraq war. they didn't question it enough. they weren't going to let it happen this time. >> there was a total failure. there were people in the media and elsewhere in the pupdy industry and polling and looked at donald trump and said they couldn't imagine this person winning presidency in the united states. when he came down the is ka later, he was mocked. they did not take him seriously. he was booed on the campaign trail. he was booed yesterday here in manhattan at a democratic stronghold and now he's president elect of the united states and people are going to have to take him seriously. >> you can pick nine or ten entities. >> look at all the different elites. talk about your national security elite, the military industrial elite. >> fortune 500 ceos who did not back donald trump during that campaign.
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there are a whole group. you'll see all those people today? >> i will. but let me say this. >> coming in today? >> let me say this. i grew up -- i feel it's my patriotic duty with whoever is the president. i'll do that. having said that, i will say this. i do think there is value in journalism, value in being skeptical. >> there wasn't much of that on display. i would also suggest that hillary clinton's failure was part of it. whether it's wikileaks, whether it was the coverage of the foundation or so much other stuff that clearly put her into the negative camp for so many people in america that to suggest journalism unto itself -- >> a postmortem is going to have more chapters than "war
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"war & peace." >> a lot of it was about learning. we learned there's a committee that decides whether or not she's going tell a joke. we learned there's this immense scenery behind the scenes. that's clearly not what they were hungering for this year. donald trump was really the guy behind that twitter account and tweeting those things out. >> eamon javers, thank you. julia chatterley joins us now with more. julia. >> thanks, melissa. as you can see, a sea of red behind me. some of the greens at the top as you can see are creeping back in. this was a clear shock truly globally. i can tell you for european investors at least for now, this is nowhere near a brexit plus, plus, plus as trump promised. equities here well off the lows.
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0.8% down. that turnaround began after donald trump's unifying acceptance speech. let me give you a sector. health care, the real outperformer here, almost 4%. that anti-clinton bias getting washed out. basic resources dipping to a positive. it's been more than 3%. on the retail, under pressure, banks also under pressure this morning too. i think there's a read across here for other european countries. a quick show of what's going on. you can see, what about italy? what about spain? all the populous threats, they're under pressure. joe, back to you. >> thank you, julia. for more on the market reaction, let's get to bob doll and boris
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flossberg is managing director at b.k. asset management, fxb.k. and he's also a cnbc contributor. this is like alphabet soup this morning. >> all right. so hit me, guys. >> acceptance speech, that was master upper-level low. he was no longer going to put her in jail. he was very conciliatory and generous in his victory. when you look at it economically, what did you hear? i heard keynesianism. he wants airports and things. that's going to be mavis spend. he's going to surprise everyone
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by increasing minimum wage to $12 or $15. he's going go across the aisle and surprise everybody. it's much more socialist than it is capitalist. he couldn't care less about profit. he only cares about sales at this point. i think if he goes across the aisle and works with bernie sanders, his approval rating is going to go into the 80s. in if first six months, who's going to say no to him. he's now the godfather, they're now going to kiss his ring. i think what you have as far as takeaways, deficits, doubles, maybe in the triples. massives, massives spend. that's going to juice the gdp to 3%, 4%. bonds die, doll lars rally and stocks rally. i think this is finally the death node. >> bob doll is a big aei free
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markets private sector guy, all right? and you saw that a lot of trumers never came around. bill kristol. the nastiest tweet in the world about kellyanne conway came on and said something negative and he said i'm so happy. given that we can't conjure up any inflation around the world, lot of republicans even larry kudlow said this may not be the time to be a deficit hawk. this may not be the time. let's cut taxes and increase spending at the same time. maybe interest rates go up to 5% or 6% but maybe you get 4% or 5% growth in the process and normal republicans suddenly went aweeklong it. >> that's one side of it. if we get that, that's great news for stocks but not bonds. there's another side to donald trump s he going to shut the
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board irs when it cams to trade? >> he's never said that. you're kind of like a never trump -- >> when he said closing the border, he meant down there. >> i'm exaggerating. >> you are. >> i think what i heard him say was i don't like our trade deals. >> right. >> look. we may not have the best trade deals in the world, but we have benefitted from every trade deals that been signed. maybe others have benefitted more, i get that. but the question is which donald will show up, the promarket which we love or anti--- >> prognosticate about what if you're in this audience and you owning questionties. >> you're going to have a
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bumpier ride. >> the perception is everyone pulls in, we're in a pork pine position, everybody protects their butt. i've changed my mind in the last three hours. he's an amazing chameleon. his political instincts are different. he's not going to talk about trade. his whole idea is to give growth. that gives his popularity up 8585 80%. here's the irony. all the things that paul wants, he'll -- >> don't put your wish list on donald trump. there's a ka memian and a rorschach test. just calm down. >> there's only one caveat to my scenario. >> you didn't get hillary and now you're going to turn donald trump into bernie sanders? >> i've been listen dwroug for
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years. i've disagreed with what you've said most of the time. >> here's the only danger point here, if he investigated goaded by isis. if we get that, everything comes back off the table. >> they're playing us but you're staying on the market. if you're in, you're in, and you look at it. >> i wish we had more. >> that's it. >> i think the market comes back sneechb have we heard anything from mitt romney? i haven't seen anything. >> how about this? donald trump was diebl what mitt romney was not and how hard did he -- >> think about how michael bloomberg might be feeling this morning. >> do you think he could have won? >> no, but -- >> no, i know. but a lot of -- i've got a thousand people. >> as we said, only in america. thank you, everybody. coming up, political reaction to the victory and n the presidential race.
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as we head to the break, take a look at the price of gold right now, it's rallying up 2.5%. "squawk" returns in just a moment. what i love most about tempur-pedic mattresses... is that they contour to your body. it keeps us comfortable and asleep at night. shop our biggest event of the year, including all tempur-pedic mattresses. save up to $600, now thru november 29th. get your tempur-pedic. the most highly recommended bed in america.
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it's been, dare i say, a surprise. >> absolutely. >> here's what we were trying to understand. be're trying to make sense of where this all goes from here. donald trump gave a very unifying speech if you will last night, i thought, and so the question is sort of how you think it's going to clear the markets. >> it's very as suspicion he has both houses of congress. the whole outcome gave the republicans a huge boost going forward and i would say this election was a repudiation of hillary clinton's class warfare rhetoric. americans don't hate the rich. they want to be rich. >> a repudiation of barack obama. >> these right. >> first of all what i want to
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say -- betsy and i were talking in the green room tossing and turning for different reasons. i want to say i think it's very easy to sate's unifying. the proof is in the pudding. >> i agree. >> we need to see how he governs. again, we need to -- we know candidate trump. i'm currently repulsed by candidate trump. we know in politics campaigning is different than governing. >> betsy who knows him well. >> i know him well. >> tell us how you think he's really going to -- people say what he says and what he's going to do may be different things. how is he really going to approach trade? how is he really going to approach dodd/frank if that's something that's on or off the table? how is he going to approach it?
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>> first of all, the election was a total rejection of obamacare and people saw it in a death spiral and president elect trump has made it clear in the first 100 days he'll go to congress with a bill to repeal and reobaplace obamacare. >> is he going to -- >> i can answer that question. >> please. we've all been waiting. >> the replacement will not have an employer mandate or individual man date so people who have been losing their full-time jobs or have their part-time hours pushed down, they're going get relief. but he -- >> what's the plan for the 20 million people? >> most of those people are in medicaid and he said medicaid
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will continue with block grants to the state to offer more flexibility. in addition for people with pre-existing conditions, fully subsidized high-risk pools. >> will he pressure republican govern nors to expend medicaid? >> in a federalist system. >> that doesn't help people with lower income. >> that's right. but federal spending on medicaid has gone up 40% in the last three years. >> betsy let me ask two others. energy markets. would you be short elon musk this morning? >> well, know that he's going to go full bore for fracking natural gas, oil production, drilling, all of that. >> and there will help our economy big time. >> that's right. tremendously. >> if you're randall stephenson of at&t or jeff of time warner l
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you will be happy? >> exactly. >> you and i were talking this was also an anti--- on both sides anti-up institutional. get our hands off business and let them go. >> he's not going to look at them immediately and throw it out the window. >> no. i tell you what he will do. >> john, john, you're a very outspoken guy. >> he was very outspoken before the election. >> we're not going anywhere we're going continue to be outspoken. >> thanks. >> election have consequences. >> please. >> you're going to tone it down? i know you're a democrat and represents that. >> there is no question that
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this was a crushing loss but you have to rally and go on and what else are you going to do. move forward. >> there was -- you know -- >> let me ask you this question. >> please. >> what does it say about the party? i would say this is not just a hillary clinton story. this is down across the board. >> there has to be across the board a lot of work, a lot of soul searching, a lot of socialization and going where the votes are, energizing the communities where i think it remains to be seen how they will fair under a president trump. i have to doubt we're up to it. >> it's less won and lost on policy. it's persona and character and it's mood, so policy helps.
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and i think that's a -- you know, that's a strength, but it's going to remain to be seen and there's a lot of soul searching on this side that's going happen. >> we have to try to leave it there. >> i think they have spoken very year clooerly about america first. americans want to have an honest open discussion on how many extra public school seats there are. how many extra jobs there are. how many people we can afford to embrace each year. >> but is it going to be an open discussion? people are worried. >> i didn't see totalitarian. >> good discussion, guys. >> thank you. >> thank you for the continued debate. >> nothing's changed. my head's spinning. it's not going to get any better, is it? >> sorry, joe. >> "daily news" is going to have
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a scary playup. >> oh, my god. the tabloid. >> let's take a check on the markets. things have gotten a little worse. dow jones down 405. s&p is down 55. that would essentially mean we would be flat. >> i think i would hire you. >> and how the unexpected election could play. let's bring in dennis gartman. bob doll. this ice what our currency strategist put forth earlier in this hour and that could impact the price of commodities but also that energy policy could be very favorable for the energy industry. so how do you look at it? >> i do agree with boris that i believe we're going to see the dollar become quite a deal stronger because of this. i do think mr. trump tends to be somewhat of a trade
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protectionist who's going to be hurt by that. it's going to be europe, germany. i think it eneuros to the benefit of the u.s. dollar. i believe it goes to the market because of the uncertainty. i think there will be benefits and i do think that mr. trump is going to be far more keynesian than we thought he was going to be. that will eneuro to the benefit of copper, to steel, to coal. i think also we're going to see the new president is going to be far more expansionary when it comes to energy. that's going to be helpful to the suppliers of crude and detrimental to the suppliers itself. >> what happens to natgas and coal? he's going to squeeze it out of the electricity generation market. >> i think that the coal industry itself has been resurrecting on its own and it's going to do far better.
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we'll be drilling and drilling and drilling for more. as i said, this is going to be helpful to the creators of natural gas, to the pictures that is used in natural gas and crude oil production. it's going to be detrimental to the prices, however. >> just quickly, what's your bid on the question of safety when you look at the swiss and japanese yen as well as gold and yet in the bond market we're seeing softness. >> i think that's quite consistent. i think there's quite confusion. some money is fleeing safer havens. eventually it shall come out of there. watch closely what hatches to the relationship between the euro and the swiss franc. that had been under pressure for
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a while indicating further pressure upon the euroitself. if we start to take that cross, the swiss bank will clearly not like that, we'll watch. >> dennis gartman with the dollar. >> there's also a flip side to everything. coming up, robert frank is going to bring us a live report from trump tower where he announced his candidacy 511 days ago. we'll show you what's going on as we head to break. here's what trump said in his victory speech just a couple of hours ago. >> no dream is too big no, challenge is too great. nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach. america will no longer settle for anything less than the best. y when growth presents itself? american express open cards can help you take on a new job,
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welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. if you're just waking up, donald trump has been elected next president of the united states. u.s. equity futures at this hour are down 360 points. on the session, the overseas in europe, take a quick look at the red over there. i have to say that's manageable. most of them down less than 2% at this point, germany and france, it will i and spain down, you know, 2.5% at the most there. >> in the meantime let's head a
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couple of blocks north of where we are live at trump tower where our good friend robert frank is standing by at this hour. robert. >> reporter: good morning. indeed the victory and trump celebration has moved here, the building where it all started not just for donald trump's real estate career but it started over 500 days ago when he rode down the elevator and announced his unlikely run for president. he made his way down 350th street after he came here. we saw melania, donald trump jr. make their way up to the third story penthouse of the trump tower and one of the many questions he will face today is how he will deal with his company and being president. the trump organization, his private business, of course, also headquarters here at the trump tower. there is no law preventing the president of the united states from owning and running a
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company. he said he will put it in a blind trust run by his children. legally that will not be feasible since it's not a blind trust. a lot of questions still to be answered on how he's going to navigate being president and owning a giant national multi-bill up-dollar company. meantime this morning a lot of refble revelers coming out with trump masks and trump signs. and hillary clinton also spoke this morning around 3:00. let's take a listen to what she said happened to her. >> we were walking down the sidewalk and i was holding my sign high above my head and not saying a world and some middle-aged man came up to me, grabbed my arm, ripped my signs into thirds and threw it to the ground while yelling in my face. >> reporter: it just proves,
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guys, despite all the celebration there's a lot of emotion and division after the race. >> back to you. we're going to be seeing more from you throughout the show the rest of the day. coming up, much more aheaded on last night's historic election. coming up at the top of the hour, eric cantor and senator george mitchell. they'll join us right here on set. >> and j.b. prits conservatorj.. maybe not. scratch that. >> the cacs and the dax fearing the worst across the board. stay tuned.
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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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girl: you're going to need me. you're going to need us. all of us. you're going to need our help with your water...
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your air, your food. you're going to need our determination, our compassion. you're going to need the next generation of leaders to face the challenges the future will bring. and we promise we'll be there when you need us. ♪ let's get back to the markets right now. i specifically requested this dude. you. you, you, you, you. mark grachblt chief fixed income strategist. managing director at hilltop securities with some of the largest guts. >> yep. >> can you say large guts? is that what i'm trying to say? >> you're trying to say something different.
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>> on the planet. >> got brexit right. neff wavered yesterday. >> you didn't say -- everybody else -- i told you jim grant was coming on. i thought it was you predicting the trump win. you didn't back off. you said it again yesterday and looked right in the camera. i don't know how you do that without worrying the next day you're going have to tell even you're an idiot, but it worked. it's unbelievable you did it again. i mean it's unbelievable. you might be good at investments, i would say. >> i might be. you never know. >> you said it's going to be a throw the bums out and it's going to be a change election. i mean michigan. i mean seriously. pennsylvania? it's just mind-boggling, grant, isn't it? >> well, what i think happened, joe, is very few people voted for anybody anybody and i think a tremendous amount of americans against.
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i just -- all i can say is wow. but, yeah. i was prepared to say i was wrong if i was wrong. but i said as i have all the years i've been on your show, i've said exactly what i think to the best of my abilities and that's what i said. i didn't back up. >> so, mark, what do you do about it as an investor. it's one thing that it happened. now we're here. >> right. i think we're going to see a downdraft in equities and stability and then a surge back up. i can absolutely report to you that the europeans are just shake on the their core. i've heard from a number of large institutions this morning already, and they're selling aggressively, and i think this is going to be a big opportunity as soon as things stabilize.
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don't do it today. let things stabilize, and i think that's going to be the construction industry, american oil, natural gas, anything connected to energy, anything connected to infrastructure. and then the other interesting point if you want to talk about is what's going to happen with the fed and interest rates. >> mark, how do you play the bond market? >> okay. so the bond market is backing up because i think you're seeing a lot of european nations selling in treasuries, but i think it's also going to stabilize -- the big question is going to be what happens to miss yellen. she might be out of her chair. i think we're going to see stability in the bond markets and go back somewhat. not the .316 but somewhere lower. >> on yellen, how does it work?
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she's got another year but becomes a lame duck? does she get out early if he apoints someone else? what are the mechanics of it if he goes through with his threaten her? >> i think probably he's going to appoint someone else, but i think the interesting thing is with all this infrastructure spending that he's talking about, which i think is great, and with all the other programs he's talking about and what you have to do now is not look at all the fluff surrounding donald trump. you've got to look at what he stated in his policies. he may pressure the fed to engage in more quantitative easing to lower our debt levels as he increases spending so the market can get a big surprise in interest rates where they could actually go lower if the fed responds to what mr. trump may want in the upcoming months. >> it's early, mark. obviously it's the morning after. a lot of people still fighting
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the old battles still. we've already heard people coming on, he doesn't have any policies, we don't know what he's going to do, you know. we're already hearing to listenf his thinking on a lot of things. there will be policies now. but the old battle is still going to be fought maybe not for much longer but i'm still hearing it with a lot of the guests coming in here. i ask them whether they knew that the election actually happened yesterday, but, you know, just the same sort of remarks about how this guy is all bluster has no replacement for obamacare, doesn't know what he's doing here, hasn't that this and that through. now when he says something, even off the cuff, it's going to be the president of the united states. so these things are -- and he's got people around him and he's going to quickly come to actual fill in and flesh out -- he's
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got malpass, kudlow. >> does he put another in? how many traditional republicans are there versus the republicans that elected him? this is going to be fascinating to watch. >> all right. >> the point i've made to a lot of big money managers is the following. you have to get rid of your old prejudices. we have hit break point. in other words, what has taken place before is not going to be what takes place in the future. and you've got to really sit down and look at what the future might be and you've got to get rid of your old prejudices because the future is not what the past was any longer. >> all right, mark grant. thank you. and -- >> thank you, joe. >> yeah. we'll keep your number. we'll see you soon. >> thank you, sir. >> i'm going to start, you know -- you remember in one of the "back to the futures," he
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got that book where it had all the sports almanac for the future. >> right. >> and he was able to bet on horses and bet on world series. i'm going to start using grant for stuff like that. you know what i mean? >> well, bob predicted a sweep of congress by the republicans in january. right? >> the house and white house. first of the year, that was one of our ten predictions. >> you think he gets any pushback on any of the trade stuff? >> we don't know what -- he was getting elected in a populous environment. >> i think he'll back off on a lot of that. >> he can do what he wants now. >> to the extent he's going to back off on that, when people say what are his policies, to the extent there's uncertainty in the markets today. that's not an unfair suggestion. there is uncertainty. nobody knows exactly. >> we haven't hit the lows from last friday yet. >> that's the amazing thing. >> in terms of uncertainty we
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are seeing the impact on some sectors and stocks, in fact. let's get to the sector side. health care and biotech, these are the premarket trades. positive bias on these two that have been pummelled that a democratic sweep could force caps on drug pricing. hca, universal health, trading as if obamacare aca is going to be repealed. so that's some of the uncertainty here that we're facing on this first trading session after the election results. let's talk volatility now. tim freeman is with us. also still with us bob dahl. volatility was pumped up through the end of this week. what happens now beyond now that we have results? >> there's tremendous uncertainty. any client is going to do exactly what you guys are pontificating on this morning. what are the policies going to be? what is trade policy going to
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be? what is infrastructure spending going to be? there's a lot of uncertainty. the biggest thing we all need to focus on in my opinion is what is he going to do with the fed? he's been very, very down on the fed and policy. and the biggest question is what is going to happen with janet yellen, what is she going to do? will she resign? it's been speculated. or will she stay through the february 2018 term? and what does that look like for the markets going forward? investors have been forced into a net form marketplace. they have to put their cash some place. so i could see volatility being pumped. today nearer term. but within a week, we're going -- everything emotional will go and we'll -- >> i have a problem with what you were saying pontificating. that sounds like you just mean speaking like the pontiff or speaking authoritatively when in fact it's expressing one's opinion in a way that's pompous and dogmatic. you said we've been
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pontificating. did you mean that? >> markets are trying to get their arms around -- >> have we been pontificating? do you pontificate, bob? >> we have a lot of opinions flying around. >> we do not pontificate. >> we have a lot of opinions flying around. >> volatility is going to move up and i agree with that. don't you think it's going to move up in both directions? it's not just down. >> yes. there's tremendous uncertainties. we haven't reached the lows from a couple days ago. we've given up a little bit. at the money trad ls that go out today, yesterday at the close we're at $40. >> this is one of the big differences. with the hillary clinton we knew what we were going to get. kind of more of the same. with donald trump, it's wider outcomes possible. >> what do you do here? if we're going to see vix, do you sell puts? if you sell premium at this point? >> no. most of the clients aye talked to are looking for vix to fall
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lower. >> you should have did a combo or straddle. you should have sold the puts and the calls, right? >> volatility had it very -- >> you would have cleaned up. >> volatility had a pretty well priced going into the close. >> tim, thank you. tim freeman. and of course our thanks to bob dahl for joining us. when we come back, we've got a lot more to talk about as we make sense of this donald trump victory. former house majority leader eric cantor is going to join us. also former senate majority leader george mitchell. they're both going to be here to talk about this historic presidential election. republican sweep of the house and senate and what it means for the economy. "squawk" returns in a moment.
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donald trump wins the presidential election. >> no dream is too big. no challenge is too great. nothing we want for our future is beyond our reach. america will no longer settle for anything less than the best. >> markets around the globe reacting to the news. we get you up to speed ahead of the open on wall street. we have a huge lineup of guests. former senator george mitchell, eric cantor, richard haass, and many more. we're covering the ins and outs of donald trump's victory and what it means for america, the markets wi, and your money the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew
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ross sorkin and melissa lee. our guest host this hour, eric cantor who served virginia's seventh district. and former senate majority leader george mitchell from the good old days, the bygone days, the days when people spoke, this days when people had drinks together, the days where people work aid cross the aisle. any chance to come back? >> all accurate. but stop using the words old and bygone. >> you know, i remember those days watching you pretty well. so we're in the same boat there, senator. >> yeah. >> and looking at you. so what kind of morning are you having? >> it's a pretty stunning morning. really i think for all of us. not being a stranger to surprise electoral outcomes, i can tell you, you know, there's so many things to even talk about. but really how could the polls have been so off? how could there have been such
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consensus that really went the other way? and, you know, all of that i think will be figured out. but the real work is going to begin now. >> is there any notion that really the mainstream media and the pollsters get together on not just measuring things but actually trying to influence things? >> clearly. but even the measure, the data, the input, the -- >> the way it's done, you know -- >> right. >> if you've got a horse in the game, you're going to be a different pollster, won't you? >> that really does and should be a lasting question now. >> we're going to be watching in four years -- >> i think this is going to be a repudiation of all of the data idea. it comes down to the data. >> in deference to sarah palin can we say refeudiation? it's a better word. >> frank lutz said regarding exit polls tonight, trump voters were either lying or refused to
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talk to exit pollsters. i think that's a crucial issue -- >> that sounds like a weird conspiracy. not everybody did that that pushed them over? >> i think we have lots of questions about how the polling works, who is answering the phones. >> you're calling cell phones, landlines. >> i told him a couple weeks back after the squawk the vote and going to the swing states, anecdotally, you feel that trump had more support than you think. but then you look at the polls and it didn't -- it wasn't the same. >> it's not like you were really expecting last night. >> this is the thing. and as you say, there was so many people that were just all in in terms of journalists and others who just -- it's a herd mentality. >> do you have a copy of news week madam president and the story in there? that's a collector's item. i didn't get one myself although they published it. did you get one, eamon? no? >> i'm not on the early list. >> of course i got one.
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>> that was your byline. am i thinking? >> okay. let's bring eamon into the conversation formally. he's already been with us this morning. you have a lot more on what donald trump's white house win means. >> yeah. i want to give you a sense of what happened toward the end of the night last night for all those folks that weren't able to stay up until 2:00 in the morning. the chaotic scene at the ends of the night where you had this clinton rally where i was at the javits center in new york where they were expecting a big win. they were expecting the first female president, a whole lot of joy, and they got nothing but pain at the end of the night. you could feel the room sagging. by the time we got to 2:00 a.m., the democrats in that room hadn't had any good news in a couple of hours. john podesta came out on stage and told the crowd, you know what? let's sleep on this. let's put pause on this whole campaign. we'll talk about it in the morning. here's what he had to say when he came out and addressed those democrats who had been there for so many hours at that point.
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>> well, folks, i know you've been here a long time. and it's been a long night and it's been a long campaign. but i could say we can wait a little longer, can't we? >> so leaving the event last night talking to the hillary clinton supporters in the room, they had a sense that hillary clinton was ready to fight going into today that there was some kind of strategy, something was going to happen. there was going to be some kind of, maybe a year 2000 kind of outcome here. but shortly after that, the clinton team looked at the data and got a hard feel for where they were and that's when we saw this concession call from hillary clinton to donald trump. we didn't see her on stage. we still have not seen her publicly, but donald trump felt confident to go out to his victory party and talk to his followers. here's what he had to say. >> i've just received a call from secretary clinton.
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she congratulated us. it's about us. on our victory and i congratulated her and her family on a very, very hard-fought campaign. i mean, she fought very hard. >> and joe, we also know that president obama called donald trump last night. in his speech last night donald trump talking a whole lot about infrastructure spending as one of the key items he wants to do next year. that's one of the things people are going to focus on early on. we have a look at the house and senate. i haven't had more than about 60 minutes of sleep here, so i haven't seen these numbers. but you look at the projection here. 195 democrats, 240 republicans. also a senate projection here to look at as well. 45 democrats, 51 republicans. so the republicans will control all of washington, d.c. they'll control the white house, the senate, the house. and ultimately there's a couple of supreme court seats in play
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here as well. >> so we know about the market's view of gridlock and divided government. usually positive. in addition to having someone that president obama said it would be the end of the world in addition to him being president, it's also not divided government. they've got all -- and we're still -- who knows where we are at the end of the day. maybe we're down more. but this is the reaction to not divided government and donald trump as president? noah blackstein used to come on all the time. he said corporate tax cuts, regulation cuts, dodd/frank, tax amnesty, obamacare you get rid of that tax, infrastructure spend. tough to see the economic negatives. just at face value. all you got is trade if you want to -- let's bring in former house majority leader eric cantor is here and former senate majority leader george mitch el. it's going to get confusing because i'm going to say leader and you're going to answer. and then you're going to answer. we've got leaders everywhere.
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and you know what leaders do. remember your buddy? leaders lead. they have a strategery. >> it is now time for republicans to govern. there'll be no excuses now. i think that the number one focus will be repeal in place of obamacare. i think that's where they'll go first. i know president elect trump says he wants to engage in a big infrastructure program. but where i think he'll have to work is to bring along house republicans who will insist that any additional spending be paid for. and the -- in my opinion, the only way that they're going to find the money to pay for that is through tax reform. and through repatriation on the international fund. so there'll be a lot of struggle. but i do think that there is going to be some progress made. undecided government is typically when things get done. >> in terms of balancing the budget, one thing that they rarely talked about on the trail
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was the idea of dealing with entitlements. it was something that was almost foreboden. is that something that you think comes back to the table in the context of other conversations? >> my sense is president-elect trump will be about trying to address. will want to see growth return. and fixing entitlements and especially medicare entitlements is a long-term challenge this country has. my gut would be that the house will focus on growth first. and that will be coupled with tax cuts. it'll be coupled with some deficit reduction in terms of spending reduction. if trump is true to his word, i mean, he's going to go in and shake it up and go look at all these agencies to see where -- >> something to talk about with you, eric. then i want to bring senator mitchell in. what will a minority leader schumer be trying to do for the
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next at least two years? >> well, a democracy requires an effective opposition to present alternatives to the administration, to seek common ground where it does exist. i think just a minor difference with eric, i think that trump would be smart to start on infrastructure because that's an area that democrats favor also. and when you've had this intense partisanship over the last few years, a tough campaign, i think the first goal for both sides ought to be reaching out and finding some areas of common ground. that gives you -- gets you into maybe not the habit. at least an occasional coming together. so it's not just back and forth with each other. you combine that with the repatriation as you suggested of funds held overseas by american companies. >> 70 is the new 50 prp you available to go back in there? i think it might work. seriously. 70 is the new 50. that's my line. i'm sticking with that. >> well, thank you for that.
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i appreciate it. but no thanks. >> how ugly is it going to get, do you think? >> it's going to be tough times. look, the partisanship didn't begin in this campaign and it didn't end with this campaign. >> iraq war didn't help it and neither did obamacare in the way that was done. it's going to be unbelievable if after all was said and done and the poisonous atmosphere we're in because of that, if that totally goes and all that gets unravelled and all we went through was for naught. >> i don't think it's all or nothing either way. there are things they don't agree on and they'll battle it out on the senate and house floor. and remember, republicans in the senate have been brilliantly successful in using the filibuster to prevent obama from taking action and democrats can do the same in reverse. >> paul ryan stays? >> yeah, i think paul ryan stays. >> really? >> i do. i do. i think -- >> he'll serve at the --
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>> president-elect trump is now the leader of the republican party. >> that's going to be a weird switch in alpha male status. >> absolutely. but if you remember trump promised to have a special session to repeal obamacare and the same on tax reform. >> a quick mention. i don't know if we should be long twitter or not given his relationship with twitter. but he sent out his first tweet as president-elect. >> oh, no. what's it say? >> it says such a beautiful and important evening. the forgotten man and woman will never be forgotten again. >> does that say signed kellyanne? >> no. that is @realdonaldtrump. by the way, he's been all over twitter and they haven't found a way -- >> we haven't said anything about her though. what about the job she did? >> kellyanne did an
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extraordinary job. >> meantime we want to get a check on global markets. bob pisani joins us with more on the markets. it's just like the trump victory playbook. all the sectors you would expect went up or down went exactly as we thought. >> it did the. defense stocks like lockheed, raytheon, they're early beneficiaries. they're trading on the upside. take a look at copper there. up almost 8% earlier on. not as much now. sign that infrastructure plays will also be on there. caterpillar up. and on less regulation, early beneficiaries are pharmaceutical and biotech stocks. if you look at pfizer and amgen. they're trading up. but may include benefitting big oil. not surprising the emerging markets are all down here.
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likely to consider for some time on some currency issues and of course legitimate issues over trade. so the emerging markets all down. another reason we may be off the lows, lower chances of fed rate hike. though most traders feel the fed could still make a case for a rate hike. is the trump victory really that bad long-term? if you look at a recent evercore survey, 93% believe market would be lower a week after a trump victory. but after six months, flat to up. in the last year other events that were thought to be disasters turned out to be long-term buying opportunities. take a look, for example. chinese yuan devaluation, thousand point drop at the dow open. two months later, back to prior levels. the january to february swoon, the recession that never happened. and brexit, moved a few hundred
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in a couple days then bounced back. big trucks out front in front of the new york stock exchange. that's a lot more than we got for brexit. back to you. >> thank you, bob pisani. coming up, check out the european markets at this hour. we are seeing red arrows following the leader of the u.s. futures which had seen a limit down session overnight. germany down 1.3%. cac down 1.5%. more right after this. ♪ it's been over 100 years since the first stock index was created, as a benchmark for average. yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? why invest in average?
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welcome back to "squawk box." a lot of discussion this morning about a brexit comparison to the election result last night. let's have a look at that a bit deeper. the first comparison is is the market moves have been far more muted. both at the debts in the early hours and right now. currency markets highlight this best. the dollar only moving significantly south against the yen. and is in fact up against emerging markets especially the peso. such as the broader u.s. index is closer to flat. the pound on the other hand on the brexit day fell 8% and has continued to slide since. let's move on and also point out that bond yields have turned around very quickly falling initially. they've already risen again. that happened after brexit but the turnaround did take a couple
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of months. what about how the result came about? first the similarity that pollsters, betting companies, and the media got it wrong. but even more wrong in the u.s. brexit polls were fairly close. it was betting companies and markets that overexaggerated that difference. here the polls were far wrong. both votes were not so much about grasping the traditional swing middle ground. instead, they were about mobilizing and turning out core supporters better than your opponent. trump, farage, and johnson doing that better than the political insiders they faced. on that night, nigel farage tweeted that trump's florida victory reminded him of when sunderland voted for brexit. a night of deja vu for me too. guys? >> thank you very much, wilfred frost. for more on what this stunning victory means for investors, we're joined by jason trenert and j.j. kinehan.
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good to have you with us. jason, what's your first move? >> my first move, i think donald trump is equity market bullish and bond market bearish. i think if you just take the four ways the governments can influence an economy, monetary fiscal regulatory trade. donald trump's policies are pro growth but also at first glance would be inflationary. i think probably the most important appointment i would think would be u.s. trade representative -- this is now the parlor game of us trying to figure out what's going to happen. the most potentially dangerous part of donald trump's agenda, if you will, will be trade. and it's hard to know. you know, is this part of an elaborate negotiation? i would say that with all due respect to carl icahn, let's just say, you wouldn't want to see someone that's let's say a new york deal maker. you would want to see -- you just want someone that's in the firment.
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i think people like steve moore, larry kudlow, david malpass, the people that are advising donald trump to my knowledge are very much within the republican firmament. trade will be tougher, i think, but maybe not as much out of left field as people fear. >> j.j., what do you think the short-term trade is and the longer term trade? >> last night we look at the s&p futures. they went down to 2,028. we'll call it 2,030. we have a history of retracing during the regular trading days, not necessarily the next day but over the next couple of weeks where we had it in the overnight sessions. it would not surprise me to retrace that. that being said, i think the longer term, this will be good. as bob said in his report earlier, every time we've seen the supposed disasters, longer
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term it's been good. i think what people have to figure out, again, i think most of us are of the opinion this will be good for financials. >> just to get this straight, j.j., you think we could actually retrace down to 2,030 or so which means we would erase all of this year's gains on the s&p 500. >> yeah. and as i said, melissa, we do have a tendency if you look at history, every time we have these types of moves in the next two to three weeks, we retrace the levels. it may not happen in an overnight crazy move like last night. but i would caution people to not necessarily be all in because this is going to be good for financials, good for business because of deregulation. i think that's often people's tendency. again, you have to be careful on that given what has happened so many times in the past. >> j.j., thanks. jason, quick last word to you. which sectors would you buy or stay away from? would you be inclined to make any moves so close after the election? >> well, i will caution. brexit fell -- after brexit the s&p fell a hundred s&p points.
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and you had two days to do it. you really -- it happened relatively quickly. so it's the most highly regulated industries. it would be pharmaceuticals, financials you want to look for. i think infrastructure regardless of who won was going to benefit. >> and the buy comes now? >> i think the next couple of days. >> thanks, jason. still to come this morning, now that donald trump has won the presidency -- let me say that again. has it sunk into anyone? now that donald j. trump has won the presidency, what happens to the trump empire? who will run the businesses? what will happen to the clinton foundation? i guess they can just keep running that although they might not have quite the juice in terms of policy now. i don't know if they'll get quite the foreign contributions they had before. we will hear from robert frank outside trump towers in just a bit. then later the president of the council on foreign relations,
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richard haass joins us. "squawk box" will be right back. . aflac! isn't major medical enough? no! who's gonna' help cover the holes in their plans? aflac! like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage? or child care? aflaaac! and everyday expenses? aflac! learn about one day pay at blurlbrlblrlbr!!!
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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. who was the first president to appear on it was? the answer, franklin d. roosevelt in 1939. let's turn back to our guest host, eric cantor. you know senators. they get better tables at restaurants. typically in d.c.? >> we just have to earn it. we have to earn it. >> senator, off camera, some of the questions i come up with, i ask you off camera. it's been a tough 16 years, i think. when george bush was in, democrats felt disenfranchised, the iraq war caused a lot of
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acrimony and poison to some extent. even republicans didn't do so well. then you had the eight years of obama. just 16 years of poisonous bipartisanship. >> i don't think anyone can simply end it. >> can he start to heal that? or is he the wrong guy? >> yes, no, that's possible. whoever is in the seat has great power no matter what their party is or what their policies are. but let me be clear, joe. it didn't begin 16 years ago. recall the clinton years when the house impeached clinton and we had an impeachment trial. in fact, american politics has always been rough and tumble. but what we do have now i think are two things. in the house redistricting has become through technology far more intensely partisan for both parties when they have the
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chance to do it. and secondly, the amount of money going in and the lack of transparency in financing. we've had a spectacular increase in money and a decline in transparency. i think if you change those two, it would help reduce the temperature. but i don't think it's the kind of thing that can be ended suddenly, swiftly by one person. >> democratic party wakes up this morning and says to itself, we need to remake ourselves. or does it say there's a flawed candidate? or does it say we need to go left even more? does it become the party of elizabeth warren and bernie sanders? i mean, look at what happened in the republican party. i'm looking at eric now in terms of how right that went. >> yeah. so -- >> the republicans woke up and said we need to move more right. do the democrats do the same? >> andrew, in a country as big and diverse as this one, you
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only have two major parties, by definition the parties themselves are loose coalitions. every point of view you expressed will be in a democratic party. there won't be a single consensus at the outset on how to go. i believe the way to do it is to present an effective seeking common ground with the president that makes clear we want to join in governing but also is prepared to stand strong against those policies that they believe are wrong for the country. and people can tell the difference when you're doing it for purely partisan reasons. >> i'm wondering if you didn't think it was divided now if it becomes more divided. >> i think it will. every party that loses an election especially in unique circumstances like this or huge lopsided loss goes back to the drawing board, has a conference or a seminar and they talk about it and they discuss how best to proceed. but the most remarkable thing
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about political history in recent years is how quickly it turns. you remember '64. that led to '72. that led to '92. that led -- so the swings are common. and it depends upon the performance in office by the incoming president and by the members of his party who are not by any means united. and the democrat party who also are not united at this point. >> you notice what power of the office of the presidency does to an individual. what it puts on that individual. you look at what president obama was a lost professor and one term senator. eight years later, i mean, he is a man of great stature. you know, from his own efforts and from the power of the presidency. trump goes into this with a certain amount of hubris and stature. is it to improve donald trump?
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>> that's a big question. >> i think that all of us looked at this election. it was the vulgarity, the tactics, the language. you know, it was shocking to everyone on both sides of the aisle. but the people last night and yesterday basically said, you know what? it's not about that for me. it is about the fact that they went into the voting booth, they said you know what? it's not working for me right now. we've got health care prices that have gone up. i don't have the job that i want and what about my kids. i need change. that is -- let's not forget, that's what this election is about. >> the vulgarity and when you look at poplar culture though. miley cyrus, she's wearing a huge phallic thing and she was supposedly mortified by what trump said. that is a prime example of the kind of disingenuous and hypocrital coverage. the way society treats the objectify kags -- the soft porn almost that's in every
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advertising that we do. and people that were shocked by that. i mean, it was shocking and it was -- and also it bordered on assault. i understand all that. >> if i could comment on your early question. the presidency is unique. and it offers to every new president the opportunity to grow in stature in office. not all have seized that opportunity. some have for awhile and regressed. that opportunity is there for trump. he can grow dramatically simply by moderating his language, moderating his tactics, becoming more conciliatory to his own party. and to the members of the opposition. that remains to be seen. we don't know what will happen. there'll be ups and downs, not all will be solved in an instant. both parties will make mistakes as we've seen in the past. but on the issue of change, eric is right. in democrats, people tire of one party. in fact, this is only the second time in modern history -- actually it would have been only
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the second time in modern history that one party won the presidency three terms in a row. the only time it happened is george h.w. bush. once you're in eight years, you start with a huge burden of running into the argument of change. and i think the same thing will be true in reverse eight years from now. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> we're buddies, right? >> we've always been buddies. >> you're not -- you seem -- you know, you're not kind of looking away as much. we're making progress. this is really good. why don't we -- >> and if you two can do it, why can't democrats and republicans? >> exactly. are you going go down to your desk down the street? >> at the "times"? >> can i go down there with you? >> you want to go hand in hand? >> skipping into the newsroom.
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in case you're just waking up, donald trump winning the presidential election. let's look at how global markets are reacting this morning. we're pairing our losses here, s&p futures indicate a lower open about 35 points here. interestingly bank of america just out with its note on the election impact. and they say given the results, they see more risk to the downside right now. they're sticking with the 2,000 target on the s&p 500 in 12 months. which would indicate that the index would more than erase this year's gains. let's take a check there. and we're really seeing the impact on the nikkei because of the surge in the yen. the nikkei is down more than 5% with the hang seng and hong kong down 2%. european markets also lower. the most impact being felt right now by italy, spain, as well as the cac. take look at oil. a lot of that is being driven about what's going on with the u.s. dollar. we see wti trading slightly lower. brent is at $45.99. as for the mexican peso and the
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currencies in general but the peso is what we're focusing in on. as for the peso we're seeing a record low against the u.s. dollar. commensurate with that, the trading on the mexican capped etf, the eww, that's trading lower by about 11%. as for gold, we are seeing a bid for safety as i mentioned so we're seeing gold trade higher this morning. by about 2.3%. joe? >> let's get to robert frank now for the future of trump's brand. he's outside of trump tower this morning. hey, robert. >> reporter: joe, well, a historic morning here at the trump tower. mr. trump moved from the hilton where he gave his victory speech back to his three story penthouse here at the trump tower. and mr. trump no stranger to the new york tabloids. we wanted to show you some of the headlines in the new york papers. "the new york post" saying president trump they said it would never happen.
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"wall street journal" saying president trump. "the new york times" says mogul captures presidency. and ""the daily news"" never a big fan of mr. trump saying house of horrors. now, one of the questions that mr. trump will face as the richest man ever to be u.s. president, one of only 5 billionaires worldwide to become a national leader. is what he will do with his vast global business empire and his brand. there were signs that that brand had been changed or damaged throughout this campaign. he has said he will put this company into a blind trust. but legally there's no precedent or logical structure for him to put this company in a way that will not conflict or somehow color his role as president. there's also no law that prevents the president of the united states from owning and running a company. now, during the campaign, mr. trump said if i become president
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i could care less about the company. it's peanuts. but it is peanuts that are worth billions today and are certainly going to get a lot of scrutiny in the days and months ahead. back over to you. >> robert frank, an unprecedented situation and historic election. we appreciate it. >> historic. >> it's historic because we have chuck todd here. >> i'm here to talk mets baseball. right? >> well, you're not here to talk miami football, that's for sure. >> chuck todd has been working around the clock joining us right now at the table is chuck todd. and when you think -- >> first of all, i'm punchy, so my apologies. i am on no sleep. >> any sleep at all? >> no. >> so first question. what do you think everybody missed? >> what i think everybody missed? i think it was two things. i think it was an overestimation that the obama coalition was transferable to clinton. and i think obviously it was an
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underappreciation for for the turnout. but if you look at -- you know, it was interesting. what democrats got wrong, what the clinton campaign got wrong. they knew they were getting the latino surge. that showed up. look in the southern tier of the entire country whether it's florida, there were some record breaking turnouts all over this state. look at arizona, i think hillary clinton did better in texas than any democrat did in 20 years. but when you looked for millennials, you didn't see them or the african-american vote. think about the rust belt state. there's no latino voters to make up the ground. florida was on the cusp. that didn't exist there. so with no millennials and no african-americans, the stagnant turnout, the surge in rural voters wasn't countered. >> we have view thaers care a lot about data and polls. how did that piece of it go so wrong? >> i will say this.
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i think there was too many assumptions made on, well, obama's 2012 electorate looked like this and 2008 electorate. instead of saying obama's electorate which we all should have done smarter and better, i think the assumptions were oh this is the democratic electorate and this is the republican electorate. and the fact of the matter is, look, trump did get some union voters. but you got to look at the total turnout. i think a fascinating fact is this. look at the raw vote. donald trump is basically going to match mitt romney's old total. hillary clinton is going to fall 5 million to 7 million votes short of barack obama. so he didn't find, you know -- trump didn't find more vote than romney did. there isn't a new white with vote that romney got. it is millennials and african-americans and obviously a chunk of other votes who didn't show up for her. >> was the data flawed or how we
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analyzed it? >> it's how he analyze the data. >> so nothing about how we gathered the data. >> no, i think that was correct. it's about dialing -- congressman cantor knows this. i can take any piece of raw data and our pollsters will do that. you can, you know, if you decide the electorate is 72% white versus 10% african-american or 12% african-american, you know, how you weight the raw data can give you different results. >> listen. again, i said it earlier. not being a stranger to surprise electoral outcomes, i can tell you it is about the assumptions that you make on what the universal voters look like. it's clear that she was unable to inspire the obama coalition. and that's the lasting -- >> we need to not forget this. i think so much is being made because we're all shocked by the data being wrong. and so much is being made about what trump did. look, we've been all analyzing
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for months. she didn't have a message. she didn't ever say why she wanted to be president. i asked her -- i remember the question i said. what's the big idea of your candidacy? and then that's when she responded, well, we're stronger together. well, what was that? it was nothing but a response to trump. her entire campaign was a response to trump. here's a fun fact that a colleague pointed out. look at those rust belt states that he flipped or is about to flip. michigan, wisconsin, minnesota. you know who won those in the primaries? bernie sanders, bernie sanders, bernie sanders. guess who did inspire millennials and was competing with that working class vote? >> so push us forward now in terms of the relationship trump may or may not have with paul ryan, with other republicans. what does the democratic party look like now? what is the conversation they're going to be having this morning? >> every conversation a lot of us thought the republican party would be having this morning, it is the democratic party that's
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going to have that this morning. if you can tell me who is the leader of the democratic party, i'd like to know. because right now the vacuum is really, really, really vacant there. it's not tim kaine. right now there's an i told you so from bernie sanders. there is a rising progressive win. >> that's not going to work. not elizabeth warren either. >> i think it's going to be a whole bunch of factions. and let's see. you know, chuck schumer is going to be the operational opposition as the senate democratic leader. >> do you think this moves the center of gravity to the right? that's -- we -- i mean, i would love an inspiring centrist democrat -- >> legally it will. that's what i mean. the shift -- >> a centrist democrat, that's what they needed this time. >> you know, i had somebody text me, imagine if the democrats had run jim webb. now, jim webb turned out not to be -- but you remember jim webb. this was a guy that actually had
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the trump message when he ran in '06. he was anti-iraq war. and he stuck it to them on income inequality. >> i don't want to give them any ideas. i take that back. >> but look. michael moore by the way for the last six months has been screaming about this in the rust belt and a whole bunch of democrats said that's just michael moore, what does he -- no. he knew something. >> we had a guest on in the 6:00 hour that suggested that donald trump will actually be more socialist than anyone would expect given some of the policies he's talked about about infrastructure and other things. will he run into a buzz saw with traditional -- >> can you say cains jan and not socialist? >> don't use the "s" word. >> you called him a socialist. >> i would never. i like him. >> look, i don't think he's -- look. one thing he's not is an ideological guy. i think that's -- that was part
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of his appeal to, i think, some of these voters. i think the mistake 16 other republicans made, we in the media made is actually we kept trying to judge him through the prism of generic republican. it's not what he was. >> you're in a really good mood. and i'm happy. because i'm thinking if there was only a show, a long-running show on every week that just covers politics -- >> let's do it, man? should we do it? >> you have donald trump. you don't have him on the show. but you have him as the president now and the same type of ratings generator for the debates. that's going to come to "meet the press." can i help you book "meet the press" this sunday? >> listen to this. what's going on, kernen? >> at least call mitt romney and try to get him. you got to get bill kristol on. right? i got some other ones. >> by the way, that is something else we have to remember. he is unshackled. who does he owe in the
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republican party? not a soul. >> you're not excited about the future? >> i think washington is going to be fascinating. >> the real rub is going to be -- first of all, i do think this fascination with where the democrats are going is a good one. i think that elizabeth warren rising right now. that's where the intensity is. she's the standard bearer with bernie sanders of all the income disparity and inequality. i think on my side, you're going to have ideological republicans and, you know, the house has been for the last eight years very committed to fiscal discipline. now you have donald trump who is much more pragmatic. i believe, you know, listen. it's time for the republicans to govern. i think they're going to come together. he'll give paul ryan and others running room to put together a package to help meet what the ideological conservatives are about and what he, less pragmatic. >> i think the business wing is going to get a bunch of deregulation. and some pretty big tax cuts. and that's going to -- what's
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going to be interesting here. what he's not going to be is reform entitlements. remember, this is a trump coalition now. in the same way i think we learned in hindsight it was an obama coalition that brought him in, this is a trump coalition. they're not interested in social security. >> a break from the past. >> well, no. >> nobody's even made an attempt. >> but not only attempt. he's going to actually fight on stuff like this. >> we're going to have obamacare repealed and replaced. that is going to be -- >> by the way, good luck to the republican party trying to write a health care bill. it is hard and it's not easy. what do you own in the health care system? >> you should read it before you pass it. but you saw what the democrats did. >> we appreciate you staying up all night. >> what a future. >> of course "meet the press" on sundays. coming up next, richard
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haass president of the council on foreign relations. "squawk box" will be right back. ]♪ sorry, ariana you gotta go. seriously? verizon limits me and i gotta get home. you're gonna choose navigation over me? maps get up here. umm... that way. girl! you better get on t-mobile! why pay more for data limits? introducing t-mobile one, unlimited data for everyone. get four lines just $35 a month.
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we must reclaim our country's destiny and dream big and bold and daring. we have to do that. we're going to dream of things for our country and beautiful things and successful things once again. >> welcome back to "squawk." we're now joined by richard haass, president of the council on foreign relations. it's good to see you.
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>> good morning. >> first of all, it's about what this ultimately means in terms of our true international relations. >> well, the correlation between what's said during campaigning and what's done during governing, but obviously mr. trump has operated outside the consensus or the traditional confines of american foreign policy. so there's lots of questions out there. lots of anxiety. for him it's both i think a challenge and an opportunity to reassure in particular our closest allies in europe and asia. they're the ones -- >> you were just saying you were getting e-mails i assume all night. what is the conversation that's happening outside of our own borders right now? >> two things. this is different than the united states people thought they knew. they watched our campaign. that would have happened regardless of who won. they hadn't seen this sort of america. and the fact that someone now has gotten elected that's raised some first order questions about trade, free trading with our commitments to allies as well. to be perfectly honest, they're
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on edge. >> if donald trump were to call you this morning after you get off set and say, hey, just give me a little advice. are the five calls i'm supposed to make this morning? >> the most important thing is who you call and don't call. begin with calling your allies. call the british, the french, the germans, the japanese, the koreans, the israelis. >> and tell them what? >> basically i look forward to listen to them, look forward to working with you. things were said during the campaign, don't overreact. basically keep an open mind. and also say i would not make my first call, for example, to vladimir putin or someone like that. you are always secure your base. our base is ourselves check inially and friends and allies. then you begin to branch out. >> putin was quick, though, to congratulate trump early this morning. what happens with china and is there a trade war? and how does trump view the south china sea situation?
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>> i think your tpp doesn't go anywhere any time soon. i think that's a given. there's probably bipartisan opposition to it. of which trade is one. south china sea is another. the biggest issue i think is north korea. what i would say is sooner rather than later, we figure out what it is we're prepared to live with in north korea and we test the chinese about whether they are willing to use the leverage they say they don't have but they do have with north korea. i think that's an early diplomatic -- in ways i'd say that's much more important than the south china sea. we don't want to see unilaterali unilateralism. no one ought to act unilaterally. >> don't you think the iran deal, though, that is -- that's the big issue first up with a trump administration and his promise to undo the iran deal? >> he never said he'd rip it up. he said he's critical of the
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agreement. it was a difference. i actually wouldn't. i would say keep the iranians' feet to the fire with full and complete compliance. we ourselves would comply. we should worry about two other things. one is everything the iranians are doing that the deal doesn't cover. it's really an imperial foreign policy around the greater middle east in syria and iraq and lebanon. secondly, this deal's going to expire. in eight and a half years, all of the limits on centrifuges go away. all the limits on material will go away. what then? we need to think -- it's not good enough that iraq doesn't have a nuclear weapon for ten years. i never want to see iraq with a nuclear weapon. i would not just focus on compliance in the short run, we better think about the follow on agreement with iran. what is it we keep iran out of the nuclear club permanently. >> within the trump orbit of friends, if you will, is there anybody you look at and say that would be a perfect person to be the secretary of state, that would be a perfect person to be our trade rep, for example.
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>> secretary of state, someone like bob corker, the chairman of the senate foreign relations committee is the person who i would think -- i think also for donald trump a lot of the foreign policy establishment didn't support him. one of the questions he has to decide is whether that eliminates those people are whether now it's a different solution that even the people who didn't support him, he's willing to give them a fresh look. they have to rethink it. there's only one president of the united states at a time last i checked. people who opposed him vehemently will have to ask under what conditions they might be willing to work for him. and he will have to ask under what conditions to expand the universe of people he'll bring in. every president, mind you, has 4,000 political appointments. 4,000 across the upper echelons of the u.s. government. that's a lot of people. that's a lot of talent you've got to tap. >> it's unbelievable. and to do it and not find a
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single person with private sector experience last time. 4,000 and not one? how do you find 4,000 people -- >> well, there's plenty. just go down to washington. >> are you friends with mr. trump? >> friends is too strong. he asked me to come brief him on foreign policy about 15 months ago. >> are you willing to take a more active role many. >> i think any american should be willing to take a call from mr. trump and should be willing to have the meeting with him. the question of whether you serve is a different meeting. whether there's enough overlap and alignment. >> just asking. that's a good answer. >> i think any citizen should be open to talking to the new president. >> so that's a yes. excellent. >> richard haass, thank you. great to see you. >> you just set membership up with that. anyway -- it's on the resume. looking for absolutely no private sector. markets reacting to the news of donald trump winning the white house. futures at this hour, now
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they're down only 240 points. only. but it was 800 almost last night or more. a huge lineup still to come including jim paulsen, john taylor, and muhammad el-erian. "squawk box" will be right back.
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donald trump triumphs. >> our work on this movement is now really just beginning. we're going to get to work immediately for the american people. >> stocks around the globe under pressure after trump's victory. we have all the market reaction straight ahead. plus what a trump presidency means for the economy and the issues that matter for your money. as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with andrew ross sorkin who i was just talking to. we hugged. we were together last night -- not together. but were e-mailing late in the evening. >> yes. we had a 5:45 a.m. hug this morning. >> we did this morning. and it was -- yeah.
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>> little pound too. >> melissa lee is here too. this is -- i've known him a lot longer. >> i know. that's why we're not -- >> i don't want you to feel left out. >> i'm fine with no hug. just fine. >> all right. our guest host this morning eric cantor. you want to hug? and new york congressman gregory meeks and our special guest this hour trump campaign manager kelly an conway will join us in about 15 minutes. and we're also just hearing that hillary clinton will deliver remarks to her staff and supporters at 9:30 this morning at the new yorker hotel. that's a tough speech, obviously, to have to give. and the futures we'll look at right now. after being down -- what was the worst? >> 800 down. >> it was about probably midnight, wasn't it? >> probably.
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market was up 380 points on monday. so you're not near the lows on friday at this point. you know, we tested the counterfactual when brexit happened, when the end of the world was to happen. there are a lot of people on here. won't mention any names. whether they were -- definiti definitively there would be a thousand point selloff. at that time i said you know what opinions are like. everyone's got one and they all stink. >> let's get to eamon javers. republicans will control the white house and more than that. >> we're learning more this morning about how president obama and president-elect trump are going to interact over the next couple days. a statement from the white house saying that the president -- that is president obama -- has invited the president-elect to
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the white house on thursday, november 10th. we're also told that the president obama will make a statement on the election later today. white house saying ensuring a smooth transition of power is one of the top priorities of the president. they have said that all the way through. and we know that the transition-related meetings have been going on behind the scenes for awhile now. so what will that transition of power entail? what will washington look like next year? i think we got a bit of a clue in donald trump's speech last night when he talked about infrastructure spending. here's what he had to say. >> we are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. we're going to rebuild our infrastructure. which will become, by the way, second to none. and we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.
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>> you guys have been talking to congressman cantor this morning about all this. one of the questions that will come up as they push the infrastructure effort is wh wr do they find the pay for that? how do republicans marry their interest in supporting donald trump in this new initiative and also their interest in the deficit and maintaining spending control in washington? that seems like a potential point of tension going into next year. >> there's no question. i do think, though, that the party and the members in the house and senate are going to rally around a president trump. and the first order of business will be growth. that's sort of what donald trump ran on was to, you know, make america great again for people. to have people put back to work. but there'll be some differences on how you do it. because it'll all be about how you pay for it. and that opens the door to what paul ryan and others have been wanting to do in tax reform. >> but it'd be funny if he gets pushback from republicans on
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being too canes jan. -- cainsian. >> no, but i think that that is inevitable. that's what will have to be worked out. this is where the marriage of tax reform plus spending will come into play. >> you've got to figure out the order of events. do you repeal obamacare first or do you go -- senator mitchell said actually you go on the spending stuff first if you're going to do infrastructure. that's a bipartisan issue. >> you don't need bipartisan now, my friend. >> you need reconciliation. you need to go and do all -- >> but both houses. i remember another guy had that for just a little while. kind of messed it up. >> you know, guys, a massive thing we haven't talked about. is what happened last night and the change in media that we're seeing. we talked about john f. kennedy being the first television president.
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you can say donald trump is the first social media president. and that social media campaign he ran to get into the presidency is likely not going to stop when he becomes the president of the united states. and you'll see other actors out there on the political stage trying to mimic that and we're going to see a social media tsunami here of all these political actors trying to change the conversation in washington. where does it go is going to be a fascinating question. who can really genuinely in an authentic way utilize that. we saw hillary clinton what we learned from the wikileaks e-mail, there's a committee of 15 people who were involved in crafting each of her tweets. >> didn't spend as much money on advertising. >> television advertising got slaughtered last night. think about the idea i've grown up in american politics thinking that tv advertising, raising money from donors for tv ads is the calculation of american politics. that was destroyed last night. we're seeing something totally different. political consultants who made a lot of money over the years are going to be shocked and horrified by all this.
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>> and earned media. we forget that the free coverage that donald trump had was akin to advertising in the billions. so, you know, i wouldn't say that tv itself is not effective. because it's the marriage of the social media. >> i would never say that. being on tv. but you're right. the playing field is tilted to who can get that attention. and playing in the social media world right now, all of those are going to continue. >> eamon, thank you. >> you bet. this morning the morning after the elections we're seeing a turnaround when you look at the futures. at one point overnight, we were limit down which means down 5%. right now well off of those lows and looks like we're going to open down 1.25% on the s&p. down 221 points on the dow. let's get to bob pisani at the network stock exchange. >> hello. that limit down circuit breaker seemed to have worked. let's look at other markets.
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japan's nikkei closed near the lows on yen strength. that was an issue here. emerging markets like indonesia were down but only about 1% or so. that's interesting although the decline likely to continue for some time on currency issues and concerns over trade. european markets like germany are down, but they're well off the lows. that's a two-day chart. you see down at the open here. right on the open of trading there moving up from there. well, the broad markets are lower. defense stocks like lockheed and raytheon and l3 are likely early beneficiaries. and they are turning to the upside pre-open. vulcan materials and caterpillar, nucor are trading up pre-open. and on less regulation, early beneficiaries are farm mas. may also include banks and oil stocks. lower support for renewable energy, for example, could boost.
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weakness in kansas city southern today, they run railroad lines into mexico. youp see that's trading down in double digits. trade may also be a reason we're seeing some of the tech stocks, your texas instruments trading down 2% or 3%. one reason we may be off the lows, most traders who fuel the fed still could make a case for doing that. and we're seeing yields moving up as well. so there's a lot of things sort of cross current going on here. hard to figure out whether they are right now. although the odds are clearly lower today. andrew, back to you. >> thank you for trying to help us sort all this out. in the meantime, the mexican peso plunging 13% following word of donald trump's victory. for that we're going to talk to sara eisen who's been following the reaction this morning. sara? >> andrew, good morning. the turmoil and currencies has eased, but it certainly was a wild night of trading in this market. reminiscent of brexit less than five months ago.
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a few threads to point out. you mentioned me peso. that has seen the big e reaction. it is still off 7.5% trading at a record low against the u.s. dollar. donald trump has threatened to reopen nafta trade negotiations. he's threatened to build a trade along the mexico border. those risks for mexican economy have made this the key loser from what is now a shock victory from donald trump. as far as the broad u.s. dollar performance right now against the big rivals like the euro, the yen, and the british pound, the dollar is actually weaker actually now it's flipped around and the dollar is a bit stronger. as you see it continues in the foreign exchange market. one area to watch and that continues along with the stock market. losers on the tough trade
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rhetoric from donald trump. he threatened tariffs on china and called china a currency manipulator. he did tone it down in the victory speech saying he will deal fairly with foreign countries. but that is the wild card here for the currency trade. that and as bob alluded to, the fed. decreased prospect of a fed interest rate hike in december could weigh on the dollar. there's the market currency trade. and what you're seeing is the dollar stronger against all of them. they're all considered under pressure. their economies could be hurt if the u.s. puts america first ahead of some of these trade deals. one rare bright spot in the currency land this morning, the russian ruble. the ruble is actually stronger there by about 0.8%. one of the few market currencies that are higher. potential trump victory could signal better relations with russia. i will also mention that oil is higher. that could be a helpful factor for russia as well.
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>> sara, thank you. sara eisen from the new york stock exchange. a lot on the move this morning after the election. a couple of other big movers to tell you about. sara mentioned the record low. check out the shares of mexican capped etf. that tracks the equity markets in mexico. lower by 8% at this hour. consolation with the mexican -- with trump being president-elect, there could be tariffs, a wall, a renegotiation. so we are seeing stz down 7.5%. take a look at health care names. bob pisani mentioned the idea that there would be less regulation particularly when it comes to drug pricing. sop we are seeing some of these health care names hold up better. that tracks health care higher. the bioteches up by 4%.
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on the flipside with the possible repeal of obamacare or aca, hca holdings, these are hospital operators. they are trading sharply lower. bob also mentioned some energy policies which could benefit fossil fuels. the flipside to that, of course, is the negative impact potentially on alternative energy. so we're seeing a crush across the board when it comes to the solar names. consol energy gaining another 8.5% this morning. let's turn to more guests this morning. peter navarro on set here. senior policy adviser and gregory meeks is here. and eric cantor. good morning. i want to start with you and congratulations. help us understand this. as we see what's happening, the peso as we think about what's happening with the futures. how do you think the market should be talking about this. >> that's a great question.
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>> let's just look. the world is literally watching this show. do you go short, long into cash? make the long argument. i say dow 25,000 within the first term of a trump administration. how do we get there from here? if you look at the policies mr. trump will enact in the first hundred days starting with day one, we just walk you through them. the first is cutting taxes for all americans. and most importantly from a growth point of view, cutting that corporate tax down to 15%. you simply do that, you get a 30% increase in net earnings to corporations which is very, very bullish. second thing which mr. department trump can do administerively is put a moratorium on all regulations that don't threaten public health and safety. we have a $1 trillion regulatory burden now. and then he will order at the agency level a review of
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regulations trying to reduce that burden. third thing is natural gas, shale, clean coal. if we lower our prices that will make more competitive globally. if we lower electricity costs, that will put more money in our consumers' pockets. he can do that. if you move to the trade issue, there are a big amount mr. trump has. he has said all along as has his surrogates that they are a trader. he does nothing more than to seek the balance at the margin. and decreasing our imports. and we lose a point a year. let's face it. we lose a point a year in growth to that. that will proceed in a stable manner with great trading
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partners. and that will be good for the economy. obamacare, obamacare is the scourge of small business. scourge of things like the fast food industry and retail industry. it simply must be repealed. and the issue there when obama passed that, it's a violation of hippocratic oath which is first do no harm. mr. trump has promised to proceed with a system which will be based on two things. competition and choice. and so if you just look at the chess board, it's a -- everything points towards the direction of growth. brings up stock prices. if you're out there today, just look at the chess board. this is a very bullish thing for the markets. and dow 25,000 is going to be like the reagan years and it's a good thing. >> there's a lot of multitasking
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going on in that first hundred days if you're going to do all of those things. just prioritize them so we understand. we've been talking -- i don't know if you heard earlier. do you go after and do a big infrastructure spending program early because it could be bipartisan? or do you do obamacare first? there's only so much that can get done in this first year. >> let me try to unpack that. first of all, the infrastructure issue. you had wilbur ross on. have him on tomorrow. he'll explain why that plan is for the large part -- no it is revenue neutral because it uses an innovative system of tax credits to help with all the other sources of funding we have. the last thing you want to do is raise taxes to fund an infrastructure program. that will not happen in a trump administration. now, andrew, what do you do first? that's not the way mr. trump works. he has a day one plan and a hundred day plan and he will move forward like an army attacking these problems on all
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four of those points. many can be done at the white house level. i can't imagine any republic on capital hill is going to say no to a -- who is a republican and probably a lot of democrats right now who doesn't think repealing obamacare is a good idea. yes? >> 25,000 from 18,000 is 38% over four years. >> we can do better than that. >> yeah, people hear that and go, whoa, 25,000. is that? that's single digits isn't it? or i can't do rule 72 on this, but at 38% over four years, is not -- >> for those worried with bonds, should they short the bond market? >> i like joe's optimism but if i said 30,000, people would go -- >> no, no. >> my point here is simple. i'm saying everything mr. trump
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is going to do points in the direction of growth. that will point in the direction of a higher bull market. >> let's talk about that this morning. is this the party and the policies and the positions? is it about a flawed candidate? is it about bad polling and data? how do you think about this? >> i'm not sure. i'm waking up to tell you how i think about it yet. it's shocking. it's shocking. it's something that i did not see coming. you know, when i came in i was going to talk to my friend eric cantor because as his election was shocking to me. here are individuals that kept -- i hope i don't hurt eric's reputation but we were able to work together. and i would think that that would continue. i don't know where we are in congress right now. my focus is how do you bring our
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country together and how do we continue to move forward? there's a lot of divides that i looked at last night when i looked at the numbers. how do we improve upon that? and i have uncertainty with reference to what will donald trump do? because i don't know. i really don't know. i don't really know from the campaign what he really believes. he was all over the place. that's what makes it different to me than other elections when george bush won. >> do you think the party leans to the center or to the left? does elizabeth warren now carry that torch? or is it on the other side? >> i think that's going to be a question that's going to be on both sides. because if the republicans go further right, then i think
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democrats think we have to go further left and have this battle and the people in the center which when you listen to america generally, they said they want a congress or they want individuals to work together, but if we go further left and further right, then that's almost impossible. but right now given the makeup of congress, everything's going to be placed on my republican colleagues. trump wants to do something, the only one to keep them in check is going to be republicans. i think on to the positive is that at least he is i think inheriting an economy that was much better than the economy that mr. obama inherited. >> let's hope that everybody does come together. i want to thank you and thank you. what job will you be taking in the administration? >> not my lane. not my aspiration. >> if he called you today would you say no? >> of course i would not say no
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to a president asking me to serve the country. but let's enjoy the moment today for this country. mr. trump gave a beautiful speech last night call for unity. i've always been about policy and that's what this administration will be about no matter who serves in it. and yes, joe, there will be a lot of people with private sector experience. >> well, that's the only people left. they used the other 4,000. it's like they got nothing. just by default, someone's going to. hey, hopefully that doesn't disqualify them this time. >> stay focused on the prize. let's get back to the markets here. we're seeing a selloff in the bond market. the tlt down by 2.5%. and the 10-year note creeping higher. close to 1.952%. rick santelli in chicago, what i want to know right now given the spike we're seeing in yields across the curve, what do we see in the fed funds futures?
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>> well, you know, we could look at fed fund futures and see the prices are actually higher which means they're less likely to see fed normalization. i look at those fed fund futures and probably take them and tear them up. because the yield curve has been steepening. the long end rates have been going up. we're up nine, ten basis points in 10s. up 15 boy sis points in 30s. if you look at the italian 10-year, all are higher yield. maybe not to the extent of the u.s. but it was our production last night, was it not? the short end, virtually unchanged. it was a roller coaster. before you come to the final stop. and i think that's all that matters. that's why we're also showing some year to date charge. because they take out the white noise. and it's very continuous. if you didn't know there was an election, there can be a lot of
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reasons the curve has steepened. it's been steepening. i went on record weeks ago saying we're going to close close to unchanged on the year. once you get through the barrier of 2%. the dollar index is virtually unchanged. i don't know what the fed's going to do. but i will tell you this. the brexit theme throughout the globe that's been underestimated, underpolled, and misunderstood is only -- is shocking as the cubs winning a world series a week ago or janet yellen and central bankers not realizing they're about to run out of runway. it's all tied together. back to you. >> all right. thank you. joining us now, trump campaign manager kellyanne conway. kellyanne, thanks for joining us today. we appreciate it on short notice. >> good morning. >> i'll start with an anecdote from last night. i was on twitter which i hate anyway, but i was on twitter and
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you had actually said some things that looked like you were starting to blame some of the never trumpers for something. it made me wonder how things were going. i don't know what time it was. but bill kristol tweeted out how happy he was that you were starting to think it wasn't going to work and how happy he was to have a hand in not electing donald trump. >> i assure you i missed it. >> vintage bill kristol. anyway, there was a time there seemed like -- and rudy giuliani came on and he was very low key and talked about i don't know whether we're going to win florida. it was very uncharacteristic. was there a time from the exit polls yesterday you were wondering what the outcome was going to be? >> 100% not. we knew we could protect our core four. north carolina, florida, ohio, iowa. and then add to that by flipping
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a blue state or two. and then we knew we would protect everything else like arizona, georgia, texas. how ridiculous for people to write these stories a couple weeks ago that hillary's going to turn texas red and tim kaine goes to arizona the other day, gives a speech in spanish which all proved to me is you can be boring in two languages. oh, they're going to get georgia. everybody writes these stories because team clinton says it. and you're missing the whole point of the damn election which is people want change and a non-politician to affecticause . and hillary clinton just could not break past that stubborn 45%, 46%, 48% in the states that president obama carried twice. the fact that we went to play this game on their turf was bad news for them. and i'm not sure they saw it coming. the fact that we dipped into her so-called 248 electoral vote blue wall meant we weren't just going to sit around hoping she
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would get the other 22 she needed to get to 270. the great thing about this job, so busy i can't read the praise or the criticism. so you told me something i didn't know about somebody's tweet. i will tell you that donald trump and mike pence won states where they didn't have the republican governor's support. where they didn't have the republican senator's support. but they did it because this was a relationship from them to the people. and yesterday you witnessed the people's election. these are the people coming up and expressing their voice. as an american, i couldn't be happier. >> i mean, we go back to -- you were on newt's campaign four years ago? >> as pollster, yes. >> you could sell ice cubes and doesn't matter who you're representing. but when you write your memoirs, i want to hear all of what happened for the last six months. i do. i want to know. because there was a time where i saw that it basically had a picture of trump and every faction whether it was mainstream media, whether it was
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republican establishment, it was the world against trump. it really was. there were never times where you were saying what am i doing and why am i doing this? >> no. and i don't make a lot of money. i'm compensated fairly, but the beauty of the trump campaign and, wow, let's just shock the political establishment. no one got rich off of this campaign. i promise you. and you know what? that's very fitting. it's very fitting that no one would get rich off a campaign of a man, a self-funding man by and large who doesn't need this job. doesn't need the fame or the glory or the money. >> and he won this. i don't want to give you credit because this is donald trump. >> that's all donald trump. i agree. >> but there's such a thing as kind of a little diamond in the rough maybe that needs someone to maybe come in and say maybe that's not the greatest tweet. the campaign seemed to turn around the day that you got that job.
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>> well, i appreciate that. >> at least the campaign started doing better at that point. >> i appreciate that, joe. the fact is we have a great team. some of the people aren't on tv all the time so people don't know who they are. a fabulous team. a loyal, gritty, small focused team. the idea that more is more, the idea that all hillary clinton's campaign money, that big personnel she's got, the big staff she's got in brooklyn out in the field just doesn't work when you don't have a compelling message. and i can't -- i'll never understand why the last couple weeks ended up descending into this cesspool of messaging against donald trump. nothing uplifting. she didn't campaign enough. it's not for me to be critical of them, but i don't think it's a big mystery how you win and how you don't win. you need a great candidate. you need people around you who are going to tell you the truth. even if it's not great. and you need to campaign. you need to go connect with the people. and there's really no substitute for that. but you are absolutely right
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about one thing. this is donald trump's victory. donald trump and mike pence. those two put themselves out there, you know, criticized over the weekend. why are you going to minnesota, why are you going to wisconsin? how about because the polls are tight there and you don't have to choose between one state and another state. you could just keep adding stuff. i'd love to go to minnesota. a ennow, you know, we're down by a point there. >> kellyanne, andrew here. congratulations. >> thank you. >> it's always great to talk to you. >> uh-oh. >> no, no. i don't have anything like that. what i want to ask is this. donald trump gave what i thought was a terrifically unifying speech last evening. one of the questions, you could see it in the market to the extent there's uncertainty. we had congressman meeks here this morning who said he's not sure what donald trump policies were going to be. you've seen trump did the now over the past several months perhaps even a transformation of donald trump. there was a time where you took his iphone away or whatever it is -- the blackberry so he's not
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going to be on twitter. the president you see when he is the president, is it the guy we saw last night? is it the guy we saw earlier in the campaign? just help us try to understand that. because i think when the markets are looking through all of this, it's the policies but they're also looking at the man. >> well, that's fair, andrew, except i have to believe in part the markets are reacting the way they are albeit mildly right now because they weren't expecting the results. and that's different than who is the person who became president. i mean, everybody was just so jammed the system with nonsense about knowing what the election results were going to be. people on tv think if i just say it long enough, it'll come true. it's like when we try to lose the last ten pounds or win the power ball. saying it isn't enough. you're going to see the guy who put out a robust plan on the economy. it's there for everyone to see.
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it creates 25 million jobs over ten years. it unleashes investments. it repeals and replaces obamacare and it gets rid of the obamacare penalty on day one. it does the -- it's going to roll back a lot of these regulations that are stifling everybody and hurting other people from never even forming their businesses. m so his plans are out there for anybody really interested in it. a lot of his detractors and naysayers never even entertain the possibility of winning. never gain the credit of having specific policy solutions. that speech last night is all donald trump. he wants to unify the nation and he promises to be the president of all people. >> i also heard and i love this last night from certain sectors that, saying i spoke to donald trump after he won the primary. he wasn't expecting to win the primary. he was as shocked as everyone. he was like the dog that caught the bus. didn't know what to do with it. and i feel it's the same way now with this election. theiss like, all of a sudden here and has no -- and that's
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going to be -- you're still going to hear those things, obviously. you think that donald trump is going to put the same energy in trying to succeed as president as he did trying to become president? >> i do, joe. this is just hwho he is. i have no idea when he sleeps. but his energy and his drive and his love of america, i think that'll spill right over into the oval. where he wants to get things done in short order. remember, he's a problem solver. he's a builder. he fixes things. when you're a businessman and you are accountable, you can't run your business $19 trillion worth of debt like the federal government does somehow, you're accountable. you need results and deliverables. i think he'll be in a hurry to get things done. we got a republican house and senate to do it with. it's quite a mandate. >> so, you know, it's not like -- we're not the "today" show, but when it was clear what was happening last night, was there a moment where you had
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with him where it was the two of you and he looked at you and you knew what was going on. and, i mean, are you going to be chief of staff? where do you go with him? >> oh, my. >> what are you going to be in the administration? where do you go from here? you going get someone elected dogcatcher somewhere? you don't need to stay in kellyanne polls anymore do you? >> thank you. i love my company of 21 years. >> it must have been a powerful moment when -- >> it was very powerful. >> what happened? >> it was incredibly powerful. it's been sinking in for a couple weeks now. but i think for him, he showed a great deal of humility until the results came in, until it was clear that he would have enough to put him over the top. look, as goes the administration, i will serve in whatever capacity i'm asked where i feel like i can be most helpful. i'm sure that's the way most people who go into government feel. but this is a very unique man,
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very unique leader. and he has a very small group of advisers whom he trusts. and in the end we all know, too, that he's just brilliant. and he's been a successful businessman. he's a brilliant man. he -- i think the time the polls really started to tighten was after that third debate which he won. that third debate was game time. >> that's not what i read. anywhere. >> in the media polls like the exit polls last night and told us hillary clinton would win. do you realize that a serious columnist who was trying to prognosticate said that hillary clinton had a 98% chance of winning? i mean, who says these things? it's just crazy to me. there's no m-- you know me. staff infection. i think we've cleaned that up once and for all in the consultancy. this is is a campaign where nobody got rich off of it. we had an amazing staff across
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the states. it makes you gritty. it's a very entrepreneurial operation, actually. but i'll go wherever i am called to go. and i haven't even given much thought about that. just so excited to see a donald trump and mike pence bring this victory home. >> pence, god almighty. there's a guy -- what a loyal soldier there. >> a-plus. >> yesterday epstein was on with us. he said florida was done. what did we think? >> yep. florida's gone. >> he seemed to know but i didn't necessarily think he did know. >> are you talking about -- >> he said i'm tell youg florida is done. >> you know how boris knew florida was zmoen because boris and our campaign knew that mitt romney had a 167,000 or so deficit in the early vote in florida in 2012 and we had cut that in half.
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we knew ours was about 88%. sop yes, we're behind in the early vote, but not where republicans have been behind previously. so we're banking on that day of vote. you had the democrats telling people last night and the media repeating it to me in the form of a question. people saying florida is over. the path is closed. there is no -- i got to tell you. people can't stand hearing that. i think the elites have to start talking with people. get out there and talk. not you guys necessarily. but talk to the people. this country is filled with fabulous people with great stories. >> has he talked to paul ryan yet? >> not that i'm aware of. i'm not sure. >> how about -- you think you'll hear from mitt romney? good old mitt? >> we've heard quite a bit from mitt romney this year but never on the telephone. >> i wonder where he is. probably skiing or something. >> it's tremendously disappointing to have the former presidents and former republican
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nominees -- that's what i mean. like, what are you doing? look i want to say something. >> he's with kristol somewhere. >> but look. i welcome them in. you want to work with everyone and i think the old saying success is the best answer of all. victory speaks volumes. and i'm just really happy this happened. but, look. it does shake up a lot of organs in washington, d.c., if you will. a lot of folks on the gravy train petrified today we may rip the engine out of the graufry train. this is a guy that did it without the gravy train. he became president without it. i think this whole accexis of lobbyists and consultants, it's like what does everybody get done. i think you'll see a more streamlined process and someone who approaches things like a brilliant businessman. he's a game day player and he
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won yesterday. everybody's saying your rally sizes don't matter. who cares how many people are at a rally. then media would say we saw 20,000 people at the rally but will they vote. seriously? >> the same people were the ones that were disrupting things. you know, cantor might -- are you like we are now? i mean, she's available? >> i'm all good. but congratulations, kelly. >> thank you. >> great victory. i know my former colleagues in the house i know look forward to a president trump and the agenda of growth. i think we had on before a discussion about the priority of growth getting people back to work. so again, congratulations. >> well, thank you, congressman. i appreciate that. and thank you for your leadership in the public sector and the private sector. >> all right. we're going to leave it there. hopefully you won't be a stranger. >> no. i'll run across the street and see you. no problem. >> good. >> take care. >> we reach important people and i think everyone benefits when
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you come on. thank you. >> thank you, joe. thank you, all. >> thanks. the election results rocking global markets. what should investors do in the immediate aftermath? joining us richard bernstein and jim paulsen. and muhammad el-erian. how do you interpret what the market will do? >> well, i think, you know, short-term who knows. right? clearly it's a surprise as you've been talking about all morning. i think that's what we're seeing. i think from the point of investing what people have to do is say okay let the dust settle. what's going to happen over the next year, next two years. and i think that's how you start positioning portfolios. what never came up in the discussion? because if you're looking for the black swan or the investment opportunity, that's what you have to look for. what's the main issue?
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inflation. that's the big issue. inflation expectations of the united states are already troughed. they troughed nine months ago. we're now talking about trade barriers, we're talking about restricting the flow of labor. these weren't inflationary issues. so, you know, the headline inflation rate, i think people have been spoiled by that. if you look at the retail stocks, they tell you that something's going to happen here. so i think if you want the opportunity, it's on the inflation side. if you want to be cautious, it's on the consulting side? >> i think it's important that trump came out in a gracious manner. that's why the markets are down 5% compared to something more worriso worrisome. a lot will depend on three things. one, what he says he's going to do. if he focuses on corporate tax reform, on infrastructure, on
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deregulation. second, what rehe refrains from doing. protectism. and finally he's got to come across as he did this morning. a unifier. so if he does these three things, then we can stabilize and this will be a good entry point. if not, then there's still downside to the market. >> jim, i don't know where you stood in terms of where you saw the s&p 500 going with the trump victory, bank of america put out a note this morning essentially sticking to its target of i think it was 2,000 on the s&p 500. they also announced markets go down 6%. given the market reaction we've seen so far, it's early days, early hours. where do you think we go on this event? >> well, i think it's important for investors. today we're all with this unexpected event, everyone's
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excited about all the change that could happen. but i think the reality is the change is going to be far less and far slower than what we all think it could be at the moment. technically we have a tripower for the republicans. but the reality is, i think, we have an independent in the white house and republican control of congress. i think that's going to slow that change process down quite a bit. and what that will mean is that what will really dominate the next year for the markets i think is going to be economic growth and earnings. those things are looking better. earnings momentum is positive and rising. economic growth in the u.s. has turned up again. if you're look abroad, you see china and other countries doing better. you've created a little short-term pessimism. i think that's really good for the stock market looking out over the next year. i guess i -- i would say one last thing.
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i remember a week or two ago steve leisman had a survey of wall street strategists and said trump was the best for the economy but clinton the best for the stock market. i always thought that was odd. because longer term if trump is the best for the economy, he's also going to be the best for the stock market. there's no doubt in my mind if the economy turns out okay, then i think stocks will do okay too. maybe not in the real short-term, but over time. i would take any weakness as a buying opportunity here and adding to risk on as if people are going to panic and go risk off. >> rich, i'm curious because there's certain things rising. health care is one. but a lot of the traders i talked to think health care is a target on both sides of the aisle. not just the democrats going after pricing but also the republicans. when you see a pop like that, when you see them do you think that's just something that you want to fade at this point?
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that sort of doesn't make sense to me. >> right. i think health care's kind of split as you pointed out. you've got things like the drugs and the bioteches doing very well right now. you've got the hospital companies doing poorly given the policies that are out there. and is it really going to be the end for the hospital? no. probably not. i think if you're playing really short-term, you want that. but everybody here is talking about growth. expectation has been so low it's been real growth. you can get growth and nominal growth inflation plus real. that's the investment issue. we've been dealing with the past nine months. i think now our theme is now accentuated in our portfolios in terms of worrying about the difference between nominal growth and real growth. >> rich? >> thank you. >> i was just going to say, rich, it could be for awhile since we've been worried about
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deflation in this country that a little bit of nominal growth, a little bit of inflation could be a positive for businesses for nominal activity and for sales and for sentiment in a way that maybe -- >> real quick, jim, the thing is that wages are growing at about 2.5% of the year in the last cycle inflation got up to 5.5%. it's hard to have a robust economy is consumption is going to be squeezed. >> we appreciate it. >> hey, paulsen. minnesota. man. you must have been horrified! but finally everything is okay. but my god what happened out there? i thought you had things under control. you must have been absolutely horrified. you all right? you looking around there? i mean, you elected jessie ventura. >> i was going to say, joe, we've been through this before. we've been through it before. >> but you didn't. you ended up falling short with trump, didn't you? y he didn't take minnesota.
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your vote probably kept him. >> thank you all. in the meantime we want to look at quick movers this morning. bank of america downgrading u.s. autoparts supplier based on the victory and a greater risk to change to trade policy and nafta. you're looking at a board there of autosuppliers across the board down about 5%. also u.s. hospital stocks and health insurers trading lower as well. you're looking -- look at that. tenet down 30%. community health down 20%. hca down 16%. also we're watching shares of at&t. the company's cfo said the company is looking forward to working with the trump administration and remains optimistic about the deal to buy time warner. of course donald trump on the campaign trail before they had announced the transaction said he would be against it. >> my concern is -- and i think this is what affects the market. because trump has proven to be volatile.
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and the markets generally want something that's consistent. that's where things are going to, you know, i'm really concerned. and what is his trade policy? i mean, the two oceans don't protect us anymore. we've got to engage. we still are, in fact, globalization i don't believe is going anywhere. how are we going to make sure we can continue when you move when you talk about job creation. manufacturing. in the united states actually manufacturing is still high. but technology means that you don't need as many people to do those jobs. we do need to make sure that people are connected and working with other folks. i'm not sure what his policies are. >> i think peter thiel at the republican national convention really said something -- >> hadn't thought about that. >> you think about it. he said that the media is always
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taking trump literally and not seriously. when the voters are the other way around. they're taking trump seriously, not literally. they heard him talk about building the wall and doing the things he was talking about in terms of immigration and refugees. they really heard just, hey, this is a more sane common sense type of position. now, that's a general response and i think is sort of born out in yesterday's results. >> so he's not going to do any of those things? >> well, i think we all have to take a step back. because all of this was a surprise. but not the voters. because the voters said, hey, we want change. so greg, i think you're right. there's no granularity yet attached. >> in terms of taking a step back, if you look at futures right now. the losses are smaller than the losses days after 2012 and 2008.
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dow jones looking at a loss of 260 at the open. >> all right. leisman's here. sticking on the topics of politics. a look at the l.a.x. and what it might mean for the future of the fed. two key questions this morning, joe, sparked by this stunning trump victory. first, does trump ask yellen to retire. of course trump had harsh words for yellen during the campaign. now as president, question is whether trump actually wants higher or lower rates. second question, what does a trump victory mean for the fed's plan to hike rates in december and beyond? massive action last night when you look at the fed funds futures market. it slipped from 60 down i think it was as low as 40, maybe into the 30s, and now it snapped back this morning to a 56%. is that the number there? almost 57% chance of a rate hike in december. my take is what the fed does in december is going to depend on the market reaction and to a limited extent also to early
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read on policies. severe equity downdraft. and i think it has to be more severe than what we're seeing now would probably stay the fed's hand in december. trump will have an opportunity to remake the fed in several key areas. he could appoint a new fed chair beginning february 2018. two fed governors would be on tap. he also gets to appoint the fed vice chair for supervision, which by the way is part of the dodd/frank rule, we'll see what happens to the dodd/frank rule. if that remains would get to the point person probably remove dan turulo in the banking sector. trump has proposed a lot of ideas fed officials themselves have asked for, mainly help from the fiscal side. infrastructure spending, corporate tax reforms, two big outliers, what happens with the trade and deficit. 82% think trump would not reapoinre
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reappoint yellen. named most likely to replace her is our next guest, john taylor, has argued for higher rates. >> yeah, i don't know about some of those surveys. i guess there was some useful stuff, steve. nobody got this right. >> look, the cnbc fed survey stuff we did i think was spot on in terms of showing concern for stocks. the all america stuff was right in the toilet, i guess is the best place to say, with all the other polls. >> right. >> and there's going to be an examination of this industry. look, i'm not sorry for what i reported. i'm sorry what i reported didn't end up being more accurate. >> that our republican pollster that democrat walked all over him. the guy was not a -- i don't know, he didn't seem to represent that side. >> i will say, joe, my understanding from inside the trump campaign is they were as surprised at the results relative to their own polling.
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so i don't think they had the right either. >> but -- >> that was my understanding. no, no, my understanding was their polls gave them reason to -- >> kelly just lying to us. anyway, joining us now, john taylor, senior fellow at the hoover institution. great to see you. what do i call you, professor, jay, ray, what should i call you? >> i thought we go by first names. john's just fine. >> all right. if you were -- let's say donald trump called you and said exactly what should i do right now, what are the first three things that will help? >> i think it gets there in tax reform. he's got a good plan. got a comparable plan in the house. you got the house, you got the senate. so get started on that. that's one of his first 100-day things anyway. i think the regulatory reform quite frankly is promising. he said every new regulation's got to be accompanied with two
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fewer. so that's something to work, there are some bills possibly along those lines. so i think this sort of a genre forms that are needed to get growth rising are the things to focus on. there are some opportunities that haven't proceeded very much. and i've been worried about the economy and growth. and i think there's some opportunities here if we can focus on those. i hope we do. >> but you know what my problem is? i don't know what he's going to do. because all he said even during the whole debate was trust me. i don't know what the policies are so i can compare them. >> they're probably going to be forthcoming, congressman a, i guess now that he actually is president. >> so you think we don't have to trust him anymore? we have to wait for him to tell us? >> now you have to wait and see what the policies are. you're not going to change anyone's vote at this point. >> i think a lot of us want to know, john, if -- your view of where interest rates ought to be right now? i think you've written several
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papers this which you've shown using your own model they should be higher than they are right now. >> yes. i think the fed should continue to normalize in a gradual strategic way that's clear and people know what's going on. you know, they've gone back and forth a lot to the extent people don't know what they've been doing. so i continue with this normalization. i think the economy would be better off. it was a normal kind of policy like we had in much of the '80s and '90s. get back to that i think would be much better. by the way, there are some interesting legislative reforms that are in the house, passed the whole house, which may be something they could work together on with president trump and get moving on that. so there's some positive things on all these -- in all these ways -- >> where would you best be used? do you think yellen is short-termer there? in your heart of hearts. >> that will be president trump's decision. he's already said he'd like to have somebody else, but we'll
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have to see. >> should she resign? >> i don't see any reason to do that. >> that was steve's question. i'm not that mean. >> no, no, there's discussion on this i talked to fed reserve say expressed lack of confidence in the fed chair and what they don't want to do is have a constitutional crisis over the constitutionality of the fed. look, i have known john taylor and respected john taylor for a very long time. >> fed chief? >> if he were to become fed chief, it would have -- john, if i could -- >> it would have what? >> it would be a good or bad --? >> you have to be happy given the things you have said given a lot of the things donald trump's proposed which are ideas that you've had which is getting the fed essentially out of fiscal policy. and if the fiscal side takes up the responsibility for growth and takes it off the fed, that is a better world as far as you're concerned, is that right? >> absolutely. and when you say fiscal, i want to emphasize this is reform. this is tax reform.
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it's regulatory reform. it's all those things that can get growth again. it's not another fiscal stimulus package. i don't think we need that. and to the extent there's infrastructure program, let's max that with some good regulatory reform so we could actually get some projects built. i think there's a real opportunity here at this point if people focus on higher growth, more jobs, more incomes, that's the goal and there's ways to get to that. it's not just fiscal stimulus. it's fiscal policy more broadly. >> and the number that you would put on -- i've seen some of your work, john, where you think the fed funds rate should be as much as 100 basis points higher or 200 basis points higher than where the fed is. you said gradual increases. how far behind the curve? >> they should go ahead with their decision to raise by a quarter point in december. that sort of has been baked in. i think it will come back to the probabilities. and then continue next year. don't have to do it instantly, but you have to be on that trajecto
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trajectory. and not kind of reverse it every time there's a concern here and there in the whole world economy. so you want more predictable policy. by the way, i think that would help more globally, it would help ecb, help the bank of japan to know the fed is going to be back on track pretty soon. in fact, there's already i think a positive thing they eventually want to get back on track. >> where would you see rates by the end of next year, john? i mean, if you were say in charge of the fed, where would you like to see them? >> i think if they can do another percentage point next year, that would be good. so, you know, a percent and a quarter by the end of next year, that would be good. this is as they say data driven. there's a policy rule out there they could be using to guide them depends on the situation in the economy. one of your previous guests mentioned there's a concern about inflation out there if that happens, that might change it. there's also concern about this recovery, how much longer is it going to go? it's been very, very weak. that's really one of the major problems. that's one of the reasons why the election's been the way it
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is is people like me talk about the statistics all the time, but you know, i'm in the bay area now and unemployment's very low. but if i go 50 miles to the east, it's twice as high. and all around the country there's problems. so that's what i think people are talking about. and i hope the policymakers react to that. >> real quick, john, the hoover institution put the deficit on the back burner and start spending some serious money here to get some inflation going, would they have a problem with that? >> no. what you have to do -- remember, the deficit and the debt is still a problem. the deficit is 30% higher this year than last year. and the debt is expected to explode. so you've got to deal with that. has a lot to do with the so-called entitlements and things like that. don't put on the back burner. fiscal reform. >> all right. thank you. i want to thank john taylor. we want to thank congressman as well for joining us onset.
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i have to call him leader. everybody else calling him congressman, but he was a leader. if you're a leader, you like that, right? >> eric is good. >> call you leader there and you insist on it. >> it would not be the case. >> thank you. >> what a day it has been. make sure you join us tomorrow. we're going to have a lot more. "squawk on the street" begins right now. in an historic sweep of power donald trump is president-elect of the united states. the republican party holds the house and senate, the impact on merp business and global markets is the story today. good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. futures were down last night you know as markets were clearly unprepared for trump's victory but well off the lows this morning. in fact, a close here would be less of a drop than the day after the 2012 election. europe is down,


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