tv Squawk on the Street CNBC November 9, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EST
i have to call him leader. everybody else calling him congressman, but he was a leader. if you're a leader, you like that, right? >> eric is good. >> call you leader there and you insist on it. >> it would not be the case. >> thank you. >> what a day it has been. make sure you join us tomorrow. we're going to have a lot more. "squawk on the street" begins right now. in an historic sweep of power donald trump is president-elect of the united states. the republican party holds the house and senate, the impact on merp business and global markets is the story today. good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. futures were down last night you know as markets were clearly unprepared for trump's victory but well off the lows this morning. in fact, a close here would be less of a drop than the day after the 2012 election. europe is down, but not
dramatically. asian markets fell between 1% and 2%. in his victory speech last night trump struck an optimistic tone regarding america's future. >> we must reclaim our country's destiny and dream big and bold and daring. we have to do that. we're going to dream of things for our country, and beautiful things and successful things once again. >> jim, we talked to you last night before the race was actually called. your thoughts this morning. >> well, look, i think that people are going to be divided between those who say that he is pro business, not necessarily great businessman because we have people -- pro business, lower taxes, pro business, lower taxes are things historically that if it were anybody we would say that's good for the stock market. this is a man who likes his kne
neilsen ratings. he's very sensitive to the idea that stocks are overvalued. but at the same time i don't think he wants to hurt someone's 401(k). i do believe that he has said that and has always been very comfortable with borrowing. he is far more likely, he said he wants to spend a trillion dollars on infrastructure. would it shock me if this man comes out and says we're going to do a 30-year treasury. it's going to be a half a trillion dollars, we're going to take that money, put it in infrastructure. that will be half my plan. is that inflationary? yes, that's something new. will the fed have to raise rates? yes, that's something new. but you'll see this is exactly what's happening when you see a caterpillar move up, when you see the banks move up, they're all anticipating the $500 billion 30-year that this man could have in the first few days of his election. >> last night 10-year hits 1.7. today 1.93. so you think markets already building in the implied inflation from that stimulus? >> the guy has said he wants a trillion dollar spending plan over ten years to be able to
rebuild. he wants an eisenhower like plan, go back to 1954, 1955, eisenhower says country going into recession, let's go into highway system. he actually quotes eisenhower. i know it's pedestrian to go back and look at what people said, but given the fact people think the man can be inconsistent. but at the same time higher rates is good for unfortunately not for your mortgage but for a lot of the companies. turmoil is unbelievable for goldman sachs, for morgan stanley. we saw that with brexit. so i have groups like drug stocks where it's hard to imagine that a republican congress is going to hector the drug stocks and the president echoed that. i have groups like the banks that i could say with this $500 billion possible infrastructure spending that are good. but if i'm selling into china, if i am selling into europe and i am saying we don't want your goods, but you've got to take ours, that will not work. >> we watch there the biotechs.
you can go through a long list of things both pro and con in terms of groups that will move today. >> right. >> you're seeing the drug stocks, biotechs up. why? well, it does appear at least worries over drug pricing or caps of that kind will not be something that occupies a lot of time on capitol hill or in the white house. >> nope. >> the proposition 61 failed in california. you're also seeing the hospitals lower. that's not a big market cap part of the company -- excuse me, part of the market. but they're lower significantly because of the belief that the affordable care act will be overturned and probably pretty quickly. >> yeah. i imagine that will happen quickly. and i think that the impact here i can't emphasize enough there are until monday and tuesday we were on a path as you were talking about nine straight days down. that was the post comey, i think comey did not play that big a role -- >> a general --
>> you guys had such a great show last night. i'm not chuck todd. but i do feel strongly that the health care group is anticipating a 1992-like 18 months of pain we had started september 25th of 1992 when then-candidate clinton went to -- and spoke to merck and said prices are too high. people thought that could happen again, that is off the table. you're seeing biogeneral go crazy and drugs go crazy. the reason banks are going crazy is because they need inflation. because they are not going to raise your deposit rate, but i got to tell you -- may i suggest if you haven't bought that house, i know this is general for not the "today" show audience, lock it in. lock it in. >> 30-year fixed if you can. >> 30-year fixed let's hope the paperwork -- i mean, i would buy ellie may.
>> the other broad positive i heard from investors this morning certainly is the idea of tax reform. we've talked a lot about it. corporate america certainly would embrace broad tax reform, lowering the rate as mr. trump, president-elect trump has said he would do. and of course the repatriation of as much as $2 trillion that is overseas. that also is something that would appear to be early business for this congress. of course republicans in control of both parts of congress and the white house. >> you could not be more right. >> they don't even need supermajority. they can use reconciliation process to vote tax reform. so that's something that could come quickly and certainly is seen by investors as a positive. all of that money coming back, some of it to be used for infrastructure perhaps, though again we don't know any details here whatsoever. >> but let me say and what david's comments echoed is the 4:00 to 9:00 business cycle that we're seeing. so i watched apple be down 3 when i was talking with sara and
wilf. apple has $225 billion overseas. microsoft has $102 billion overseas, alphabet, google $32 b. amgen $31 billion, take a look at the way those stocks have traded in the last 45 minutes. it's rather remarkable. they're all up. >> yeah. that money's coming back. it's funny i talked to a company that has a sizable amount of cash overseas. so how long will it take to actually bring the money back? about an hour. >> about an hour. >> about an hour. >> and i'll do it through goldman. i'll do the wire through goldman and they'll charge me a nice and goldman sachs makes the quarter and then sm. >> yeah. >> a lot of disagreement about whether last night was a tradeable bottom. whether or not we see some lower lows here. given everything we don't know which we just talked about and -- >> at 11:47 i turned to my wife who said will you shut it off already, i said this is it. if i were a hedge fund manager,
i don't care, just blindly buy. pa ja ma trade is cleaned up. investors like, boy, i wish i could do the show right now. the problem is that came and went. now, let's understand we had a 2% rally when we thought hillary was going to win. so we kind of take the clock back to friday. but the problem is that the stocks have been so beaten up, health care and health care short term and banks over the last three years. >> right. >> i mean, if you're going to raise rates, you borrow $500 billion. i used to heckle tim geithner saying please borrow $500 billion and put people to work. trump's piled $500 billion and built casinos. that's facetious. >> that's an exaggeration. >> but he has a propensity to want to borrow. maybe it extends to the white house. >> but to this broader question of consistency or lack of it and the fact he said things people are uncertain will actually happen and then has said other
things that seem to contradict what he said earlier, do we have to wait and see what the actions are as opposed to actually hearing them first? >> yes. >> doesn't that make the markets very volatile for a long period of time throughout the presidency? unless there's a sense of some consistency that's established? >> who do you appoint if you're anti-establishment? who do you appoint? now i'm going to be close to home, i'm going to go into our kitchen for a second because i watched your show last night. larry kudlow, my former partner from kudlow and cramer, by the way anti-protectionist. so let's put that on the table. but does larry kudlow get a call today? does scar much get a call today. >> that's a delicate dance. >> i'm putting this out there as meaning i don't know who an anti-establishment candidate suggests for the federal reserve. is this one of those raise less
corn more hell populist movement right now where it's william -- where we're stapled across gold. are we going to get william jennings brian populism, who knows what he would do, or mckinley republicanism? i don't think you know until you see the whites of their eyes which means appointments. >> what about trade? what about the expectation he could try and repeal nafta and all the things that will come with that? again, is that something we can expect? it's certainly been a key part of his appeal. >> have to. have to. have to. look, when nafta was created, the ratio of the peso to the dollar was not 20/1. people in mexico getting $2.75 an hour, that's the lowest in the world. if you're bmw right now and trying to figure out whether to put that plant in pueblo, or
south carolina, i think you're probably thinking we maybe ought not to do that thing, maybe we put this plant -- >> longer term, i know gets you, john, machines are replacing those jobs anyway even if they come here. we're manufacturing more in this country than we ever have with fewer people. >> with a ppg plan and a harmon plant, i totally agree. you don't want to own the car companies because they are the ones that would be retaliated against. remember, there's a retaliation issue. i had yum china, yum china comes public, all of a sudden how do i feel? i want to own yum rest of world rather than yum china if i am just kind of blindly thinking about how china has to retaliate. i notice constellation chrks has a full day analyst meeting is down 20 on a sell. 20% of constellation's beer is made in mexico.
unless you slap a tariff immediately on beer, highly unpopular concept on modelo and coro corona. i don't want to be two grand but i'm saying cmx and ksu were the ones, do you want to own ksu which has 50% of its business taking materials from mexico to here? that would not be what i'd reach for first. however, norfolk southern, which is the company that managed to do incredibly well even with coal down gigantically, i'll reach for that right now. james squire was on "mad money" last week. i'm a banker. i bank with james squires. >> you did draw our attention to ksu a long time ago. >> yeah, that's the fulcrom name. >> we'll get to how all of this affects m&a, infrastructure, coal, tariffs, the fed, obamacare and more.
but first let's get to our chief washington correspondent john harwood after a long night at hq on trump's victory. hey, john. >> hey, carl. it was a long night. and i think we've got to stop and look back again at what a tremendous victory donald trump won. he proved his analysis of what was likely to happen correct and that of every other pundit, all the pollsters, yours truly, wrong. donald trump has gotten over 278 electoral votes so far. we still don't know the results, final results in minnesota, in michigan, new hampshire and arizona. in the senate republicans won a tremendous and unexpected victory there. they have got at least 51 seats. we have two seats still uncalled. that means that mitch mcconnell will remain the senate majority leader. and in the house of representatives, democrats did not come anywhere close to taking control. in fact, at the moment they've got 195 seats.
republicans have 240, but we have some a few still to be called. 240 is a very robust result for republicans. and now hillary clinton and president obama face tests that they never expected to face. that is to say it is now incumbent upon them along with donald trump to try to bind up the divisions of this campaign. we will hear from hillary clinton. we expect that about 10:30. we'll hear from president obama. president obama now has the responsibility for conducting a transition for someone he denounced so strongly during the campaign. that's going to be a challenge for him to work with donald trump and make that successful. i think the analysis that david and jim were just giving was spot-on. we're in a period now where we're going to find out which of the various things that donald trump has said are truly important to him, how he prioritizes and how he makes those things work with republicans in congress. let me just give you a couple of examples. what do we know about donald trump? he likes to borrow, says he's
the king of debt. he likes to build. so i think the idea of a major infrastructure investment as jim was just saying, i think you're going to count on that as something very likely to happen. the question is what happens on the flip side, what happens on the deficit side, same is true on tax cuts. i think donald trump clearly wants to cut taxes. are they going to be closing loopholes to keep the deficit down? i think that's a much less safe bet. you can count on the transpacific partnership being gone, and i think nafta given something where donald trump was he's going to have to use the authority he has to attempt to withdraw from that deal. and we'll see what the consequences are. >> on top of that, john, it's not as chuck todd said on squawk this morning, it's not like he owes any other faction of the party anything. he owns all of this. >> right. >> he owns all of it. and, you know, the rub on some
of these things is going to come -- you know, particular kind of populism that donald trump has aspoused embraces parts of what traditional republicans, paul ryan republicans believe in in part that he doesn't. donald trump is not interested in entitlement reform. he is interested in tax cuts. paul ryan likes the latter, he doesn't like the former. so if we get a very deficit expanding infrastructure plan and tax cut plan, what then does paul ryan do about entitlements, which is something he deeply believes in. and if he believes in it, will republicans follow him? because he's got a huge faction within his house republican caucus that is more loyal to donald trump than to him. lots of questions and not many answers right now. >> john, stick around. we're going to be talking a lot more about this today. >> it's funny you look at the tape underneath and watch i'm always a creature of the tape. and you see how wrong everything was in the morning. could be wrong again today. but as we get closer, for
instance, i'm seeing pipeline stocks under pressure. let me say how stupid that is. the american system is based on natural gas. and if it stays cold, then we need more natural gas. it's in the wrong place. it's in the marseilles, this country had turned the administration turned violently anti-pipeline. now, i think the idea pipelines which puts a huge number of people to work in the 1930s was biggest creator of jobs is something you want to suddenly embrace, that's a williams, that's an energy transfer. i don't want to be too granular other than to say oil and gas people want to go buy drill, drill, drill. listen, you can't drill, drill, drill if oil's at $43. but you can pipe, pipe, pipe. >> i think you're right. and i've seen notes to that effect as well about pipeline stocks actually being beneficiaries. >> they are beneficiary. >> on the larger question though president-elect trump has called climate change a hoax, perpetrated by china. he has talked, i think, about
eliminating the epa if not many of its regulations. >> right. >> one would expect if you are a solar company, for example getting subsidies still for your panels, or anybody involved in different and new forms of energy. >> right. >> you've got some issues today. >> you buy duke energy which is the most levered coal company. you have utilities. and you sell first solar or solarcity. but duke -- now, i'm here to tell you all these utility companies got the warning, they do not switch on a dime. these are $15 billion capital programs, but duke might be able to say, hey, listen, we built a lot of plants because jimmy carter in the fabled 1979 speech said we're the saudi arabia of coal let's put up 40-year plants. these 40-year plants are all coming due and so therefore we're going to just roll the dice rather than epa coming in saying, listen, you got to shut those. there's not going to be new coal plants built. coal isn't even economic versus
natural gas. you know, and i see union pacific down three. now, union pacific down three and river basin not that powerful form of coal. and union pacific is viewed as being a trade partner with china of the rails. china is a problem. china is a problem because -- i mean, i remember the first time i interviewed mr. trump at his place, you know, he asked me my view on china, said actually this is more an interview of you than it is me, but that's often the case when you interview donald trump. he doesn't like china. he wants to be as protectionist as possible with china. that means if you are trying to sell a lot of shampoo in china, you're sitting there right now and saying, gee, i hope they don't know it's american shampoo. >> right. well, your point about trump and what he can do for fiscal stimulus infrastructure is one thing. we don't know what the reaction from nato, the president is going to europe now, we don't
know what the asia response will be. >> they're in. >> we're getting responses from russia and now cuba a few minutes ago. >> you have iran. can oil go up just because he takes back what he wanted to do with iran? suddenly what our current president wants to do with iran, so suddenly they don't have the money to pump the 5 million a day to 6 million a day which then tightens the oil supply. could that happen? could the middle east heat up? i think militarily total wild card. total wild card. and if we don't factor that in, we say, hey, we got to buy everything. caterpillar in the last call said, you know what, china's better, u.s. is not good. you take away the not good by the infrastructure, suddenly you have a great situation. and then we see trade wars and we see europe down and next thing you know people say why did i buy a machinery company and atmosphere --
>> he was asked about it last night at his victory party and did not respond. >> a key component of his campaign from day one. and then the possibility of deporting a lot of people. that would be destabilizing for the economy too. >> yes. no doubt. a lot of what is the labor force out there would be under fire. these are -- you know, i came in this morning and said, okay, how much do i really want to talk about immigration. all right. from the point of view that immigration may have helped him win, but from the point of view of roundups? i can't go there. >> which goes to the point where you just don't know how much was rhetoric and how much will actually be policy. >> right.
so that's why i say the tape could be as wrong now. i mean, the morning tape -- the 4:00 tape, it was like people are selling apple because they're saying, okay, he's going to pick up the hot line to tim cook and say you're not building any iphone 7s in china. >> right. >> and then tim cook's going to say, well, you know, where am i going to put them? or, maybe he says why don't you tell samsung to get the hell out. they start fires. you don't know. what i'm saying you don't know. >> he was not indirect about all those things on the campaign trail. >> no, he's kind of all over the place, but he does love the borrow and he's got this thing about borrowing. >> and he likes to do deals. >> likes to do deals. art of the deal, you ever read art of the deal. how does he feel about viacom and cbs? >> a few weeks ago when the deal was announced at&t and time warner said it should be blocked. he also went onto say comcast acquisition of nbc universal,
our parent company, should have been blocked and did imply he would look at the potential of doing something to prevent the power that accrued. again, i'm just quoting mr. trump from a few weeks back on the campaign trail. >> you know what's interesting, we're hearing things -- this is this anti-establishment theme, the federal reserve, will they be independent? will the justice department be independent? real anti-establishment candidate says i was put in to dismantle this bureaucracy that has been anti-worker. well, the bureaucracy happens to be the federal government. now, remember when ronald reagan said i want to get the government off the backs of the people? that produced a change. we were trying to get up to 600 ship navy, that kind of thing. yeah, if you want to get the government off the backs of the people, holy cow, you know, it's going to be that way. and he did say, remember, that he would investigate hillary clinton. and last night he thanked her for her service. >> kellyanne conway this morning
on msnbc did not rule it out. said that will all be dealt with in time. so that does remain theoretically on the table. >> she going to jail or going to yale? >> that's a good line. we are just about six minutes from the opening bell as we prepare to see how the big board will open. let's get to bob pisani on the floor. hey, bob. >> and good morning, carl. you know, the entire market observes system wide circuit breakers that halt stocks when the s&p hits key levels. now, under those rules a trading halt occurs when the s&p 500 decreases 7% and 13% befor:00% 3:25 p.m. and the halt occurs for 15 minutes. now, a similar decline after 3:25 p.m. will not halt trading at all. there is a third circuit break level, that's the level three that will kick in when a 20% decline occurs, which will hold tradings for the whole day regardless of when that happens. so a 7% drop would be about 1990 on the s&p 500. we're nowhere near that right now. we're closer to 2100, frankly. these circuit breakers by the way were only used once system
wide in october 1997 during the asian currency crisis. now, potentially more important are the individual stock circuit breakers, individual ones, which generally hold trading for five minutes when individual stock prices rise or decline 10% in the first 15 minutes and after that for five minutes when the price declines are more than 5% below the average price of the stock over the immediately preceding five-minute period occurs. that's the thing i think we need to keep an eye on. we'll be watching some of the individual stocks as they open here. remember, this has been a remarkable turnaround down 800 points last night midnight when the circuit breakers kicked in, the future circuit breakers and now looks like futures down roughly only 220 points or so. back to you. >> bob, thank you very much. should point out in europe switzerland is up a percent. ftse up half a percent. >> what a reversal. we had people come on air and say sell everything. you know, there are companies
that just do better under a president that is less regulatory. you can't sell everything. by the way, this is like a stock picker's market again because there are some parts of the s&p that damned if you do. look at pfizer. pfizer is big cap company. a lot of money overseas. stock's up 10%. why? what happens with pfizer today, david, an inquisitive company what happens that suddenly they're up 10%? did they discover a new drug? >> no, pfizer is a beneficiary i think of a trump administration, republican congress, a, because they have $30 billion or some number let's call it overseas that will come back. that will be big for them. at a very low tax rate. >> right. >> also, the pressure is off on drug pricing. you could argue. >> 39 billion. >> that will be a positive. i don't necessarily think he's going to let up on inversions, but i don't know. you know, if you can bring the money back, what's it matter? pfizer doing the allergan deal
to get the cash overseas. so everybody doing inversions to get access to cash not going to have to worry about it anymore. and that certainly crosses off one big reason for doing them. >> let's talk tesla for a second. okay. i mean, tesla is a company that i would not imagine gets as many tax breaks. >> no. >> right? >> but tesla does benefit from subsidies, doesn't it? >> oh, of course. >> we've seen the impact of those being taken away. >> so they're going to hit tesla on solarcity. >> yes. >> essentially that was like a hillary clinton dream come true stock. >> right. solar, wind, electric. you know, he doesn't think climate change is real. so he doesn't -- that's not going to be part of the agenda supporting those, i don't believe. but again, who knows. >> going to privatize prisons. i see the corrections. >> maybe. >> can i just say things don't happen overnight in our country? they don't happen overnight. >> i once had a boss who said there are some meetings you go
in and your world changes as you walk out. this was sort of like one of those meetings. >> that's a janet yellen meeting. how is janet yellen doing today? besides house hunting. >> she's got another year. >> term ends in '18. >> well, i don't know. that's part of the problem. i mean, does this man impress you as someone who doesn't want to change the terms? >> no. he's going to. i think to your earlier point who's going to be the treasury secretary? for us the more we focus on that will be a key question. >> that's what we have to -- >> will it be his finance chair? some name we haven't heard of? >> should j.p. morgan be up huge today? there's the example of the meeting. if jamie dimon, i don't know whether he likes or hates jamie dimon, but i do know under the previous administration when tony west, now at pepsico, when they dealt with jamie dimon, it wasn't like, hey, jamie, how's that loan business? but you know what, trump, i don't know, unless he wants
to -- do you remember who trump's banker was? can we just recall? >> it begins with a d. >> deutsche bank. >> yes, it was. >> as nutty as that is. >> he is not beholden to goldman or -- >> no, none of those banks. none of those banks. >> no. >> we don't know who his chief financing sources are. >> right. >> and some people are hoping maybe we'd learn more. >> right. but do you remember that last ad that was running, i know we're not supposed to look at the ads on the network but the picture of hillary it was a little grisly, remember the last face in that ad? lloyd blankfein. >> speaking of people he doesn't like, jeff bezos at amazon was not a favorite of mr. trump's during the campaign. he threatened him, threatened amazon. be curious to see how that stock does today. >> and by the way we're getting a statement from peter thiel this morning. he famously said that the media
took him literally, not seriously. his supporters took him seriously, not literally. thiel out this morning with a statement saying it's going to require a lot of hands on deck to bring mr. trump's vision to fruition. >> you know who did take him seriously? people who followed the real donald trump. i wonder if twitter is not worth more today than it was yesterday since it may have elected a key player in the election. twitter. machine learning. social, mobile, cloud, poorly run company. in other words, buy? >> no, listen, that's another side story to all of this. and i know the pundits will talk a lot about it how little he spent, how much he was able to gain, how he went about getting his message out there, turning it all upsidedown in terms of
spending and ads. >> right. advertising. somebody said on twitter the ground game was in their hearts. which could not be more true. >> that's very true. >> there was no need to get out the vote. they were going to vote, period. >> i remember in -- i'm going to date myself, but in 1979-'80, kind of felt the republicans had a pretty good shot given how badly the country was doing and reagan was talking about this 600-ship navy. they were all there. you could sit there and buy northrop and still went up after reagan won. and then they went up and they went up and they went up. and so, i mean, i know it sounds weird, but lockheed martin, going back and forth, lockheed martin is not back to where it was when they reported the okay quarter and spunoff the business. >> last night we were all watching the dow futures down, what was the bottom? >> 800. >> 800. and now the s&p is positive. >> i mean, you know. i don't like to come in on up, i prefer to come in on down just
because there's going to be people who last night sold. and you think those guys just like don't say i didn't like it? the same people who sold down 5%, do you think that they're as sanguine now? >> right. >> they can come back and sell. >> we talked about all the different groups that would potentially benefit. whether it's those who benefit from infrastructure spending, the drug companies and there by the way we're talking about a lot of market cap versus the hospitals which are very small market cap as a sector. even though they are getting crushed. >> now, should celgene be up $15? suddenly is that worth $15? >> the ibd's up 9%. i mean, yes, it's true that congress will not hold hearings and attack celgene. >> merck is up 7%. do you know how much money they have overseas? that is of all the things we can agree on that is going to happen. you're going to have the
congress. they're going to get on tax reform. and they can just do it. and this is something we've been waiting for and corporate america's been waiting for for a very long time. >> right. >> and it is generally viewed as a positive. i think. now, whether it gets connected to broader tax reform and individual and gets a lot messier, that's the key question. but that's going to happen. and that's being reflected in these stocks. pfizer is up 10%. >> the narrative has changed rather radically. now, 24 hours ago the greatest short in the world was the biotech short. the second was the pharma, right? >> right. >> because hillary's going to win and we're going to have full scale investigations and we're going to have the ceo of mylan back to say, hey -- now, now suddenly you're short those and you're thinking, well, what do i do? and so you cover. and that's how a celgene goes up $15. a big company. >> it is. and a lot bigger this morning. >> do you want to go on top of that short and come in and buy? i don't know. >> some of these moves are really -- >> how about ca-ching.
>> some of these are big moves. some down 20%, not only worries about pricing, a number of other reasons. but these moves are extraordinary. >> just as you were saying last night, when the futures were down 800 that it was an unwise place to sell. are you saying this is an unwise place to buy? >> i think you got to let the short covers have their stupid ways. let them cover wherever they can because they just say i've had enough. and then you're going to have to start worrying about earnings again. look, in the end, i mean, let's say you wanted to buy macy's and they're about to report. do you think tomorrow if macy's reports a bad number you going to say, wait a second, trump, those ties will be back in the stores? no. i mean, you're still stuck with the four walls of a crummy quarter. >> you are. >> you are. >> although look q-3 earnings on track to go positive for the first time in a long time. >> true. >> still have the likes of jim paulsen saying we are at the
beginning of a recovery in corporate profits. >> but if you're the ceo of 3m and built your company upon a worldwide organization, do you not feel, you know what, i worry that the first press conference he gives is to say no more imports. we're going to protect our jobs. and if you're 3m, you can't make all that stuff in st. paul. >> that's going to be very destabilizing. >> that's destabilizing. >> so many different companies and so many different ways. >> right. look, let's take a company like skyworks solutions. skyworks solutions, they have most intellectual property in a cell phone. >> got it. >> if trump wants you to build your cell phones in the u.s. and so therefore skyworks has to go -- it's a very good company, they've got plants everywhere. and the word is you've got to put all your business here, well, that's expensive proposition. so you see the companies that have good business in china getting killed. you see the companies that are
going -- i mean, remember, united technologies said good things about china coming back. we know that boeing you have to buy things in dollars, boeing could be heard. you get a company like a lot of the big time at salesforce, at adobe, these are companies that really key themselves on international growth. and they're worried about trade war. >> amazon's down $20. so do you believe there is a chance that the companies he targeted specifically in the race that that carries over, that he targets them as president? macy's, utx, apple. >> not to mention meg whitman, hpe because she was so aggressively -- >> they get a little personal. >> and he's known to go after people. he has done that. he always has. >> well, you know, the only issue there with amazon is you can go after amazon, but at the same time what are you going to do put a giant tariff on their stuff? >> i don't know what you're going to do, but when you're the
president you have a lot of power. >> absolutely. maybe he just says amazon prime we should put a tax on it. i don't know. i just find that -- that's a little granular. >> you'll grant there's a lot of emergency meetings going on in corporate suites this morning, right? >> i've had 100 ceos on this year, more than that, i always ask them who you for. you never heard -- you didn't hear anyone -- i don't want to say never, but you didn't hear trump's name. because they want to sell things overseas because the u.s. is saturated. so if you're selling tooth paste, or you're selling perfume, right? >> right. >> toupt go where people grow. >> that's what this election was, a rejection of globalism for lack of a better term, right? it was. >> so why is home depot down almost 3 when it's a u.s.-based company and you have to believe that he is saying, listen, we're going to help american people
build things? why is home depot down 3? is that sensible? >> i don't know. >> i think the answer so that is he's not targeting home depot. so if you going -- i'm just saying -- >> he's not? >> he's not targeting home depot. >> i don't believe he is. >> he likes buildings. he likes to build things. but the drugs is i think that's short cover. remember, there were a lot of positions put on in the last 48 hours that were just, okay, hillary and it's going to be the senator from massachusetts, what's her name? you know what i mean? >> no, i know. >> we don't think about elizabeth warren anymore. >> not to mention the banks. if the democrats are taking control of the senate, she would have had a powerful voice, maybe had a chairman position of some kind. >> exactly. >> carl, we've been dealing so long with divided government, i think it's important to remember we no longer have it. the republicans control everything. so, you know, what is the likelihood of them being able to move things along in a way that we're simply not used to anymore? >> right.
right. >> remember how much we talked about how much the market feared a democratic sweep? >> yes. >> not fearing a republican sweep. >> let's take a company like boeing, okay. boeing has a competitor, airbus. i think we would say, do you know what airbus do we know what we're flying? you start a trade war and you're the ceo of boeing. i don't even know if trump takes your call. i don't know. but airbus gets more business than boeing in a trade war. they just do. one of the great highlights of that boeing conference call -- there were two highlights in the boeing conference call. the iranian order and the chinese order. those orders probably would not go to the u.s. they would go to airbus. those buying boeing right now, what's your thesis. when you're on the conference call, did you hear about the iranian order, listen to the chinese order, those are pieces
of business i now think are up for grabs. >> yeah. >> so people buying those -- look, go back to your question. i didn't want to sell it down 800. up, i don't know, that seems a little fanciful to me that suddenly we decide i looked at the supreme court and, boy, did you see the appointees? i don't think he knows. >> this is more ammo for your pajamas trader guys. >> i'm taking away their dr. dentons, no feet for them. they're wearing boxers and tight ones. >> one thing they have sent out the peso, it's recovered -- >> don't. i got sunglasses. >> it was a 20 -- the biggest move in 20 years on the peso. i like this floor, jacobs engineering, companies that could help you make a wall if you need logistics. >> lockheed martin played a role. florida -- >> there's the peso by the way.
>> florida has a project they're so overrun in the gulf, but the stock's up 4, i ges people feel like, wow. how about acme bread corporation, should we go there? >> actually, bernstein a long time ago took a look at companies that would benefit from construction of a wall. ironically the capacity would be so large you'd have to rely on a lot of mexican contractors to do it all. >> you know, cliff mason and i were going back and forth for "mad money" and said cmax, if you had the mexicans build the wall than cmex gets the contract. but if you have u.s. build the wall, maybe martin marietta materials gets the contract. >> right. >> i don't know. it's a little granular. >> hence up 12% today. >> materials though, right? >> one i recommended heavy last night. >> i mean, jim, the defense stocks are up generally just because republicans are viewed
spending $600 billion a year. >> if people want to go pay -- it's really interesting where we're seeing weakness are these international consumer packaged goods place. like suddenly they're not going to take our cookies. >> well, we stop buying their phones. >> so they stop buying our oreos? >> that's what a trade war is, isn't it? >> it is a trade war. >> buy newcore. had saying steel's been so bad that would be one to buy. it's actually having a decent quarter. they did build a plant in mexico. but new quarter would be your way, okay. do you think there's enough certainty after the election
people will go out again. >> yes, i totally do. >> then it's darden, buffalo wild wings, i don't want to -- i'm saying if they're going to go out again, then you're going to want to own a restaurant stock. and may i suggest your physique's pretty good but think about cheesecake factory. >> they have a whole page. >> very different than -- >> the thing is the size of the oxford dictionary, the menu. >> i know it is. >> cheesecake. >> it will be interesting to see if people return to going back to casual dining. >> how about apple? apple's gone the full gamut here. now back to 108.
>> more market cap of any company virtually than about 10 or 15. i don't know what they'll do with that money. they can by anything and everything. at the same time he wants them to make their iphones in cuperti cupertino. >> it's not possible. >> meanwhile interest rates are going up so therefore all these bottom market equivalent stocks are going down, plus they have problem with trade. you'll see that. the insanity of buying caterpillar up 6, can i just say, you know, shovel ready does not mean that tomorrow they're going to hire -- there's still a president. his name is obama. you're not going to be able to go and buy all these -- but people are short cat because that was another way to play the idea that business as usual. remember there's always guys that come on like delivering alpha and say short cat? >> uh-huh. >> it's like hey, let's short cat. almost like a memo you get. someone has to say short cat.
a movie took place in mexico. >> oh, mel gibson movie, right? >> pretty good. >> yeah, it was scary. >> great character. >> as you can see we got a bit of a swing here, dow up 70, now down 4. let's get to bob pisani. good morning, bob. >> i think a lot of people anticipated a lot of volatility. i don't think anybody anticipated a relatively flat open, which is exactly what we've got. i just want to swing to the floor here and show what's going on, relatively calm. in fact, it was a pretty calm open. there were a number of changes made at the nyse. remember that august 24 drop in 2015 when we had a notable big decline, they've made some small changes down here essentially to make it simple, they allow a lot of stocks to open quicker and more automated fashion. if the change is more than about 5%, they can still open the stocks manually and about three or four minutes ago there were a number of stocks where they were
still having auctions and opening manually. but most of the stocks down here opened pretty much manually and on time here. you can see most of these things here changing just a little bit, a third, a quarter, half a percent in general. take a look at some of the major sectors, nobody's surprised health care is flying up almost 4% at the open. financial stocks that would be beneficiaries of higher rates we've seen recently. they're also doing well. and some of the industrials that have been beaten up also were all fractionally to the upside as well recently. not surprisingly interest rate sensitive groups, reits, utilities to the downside overall. we saw defense names, lockheed martin, l-3 for example, all those stocks trading to the upside. infrastructure names have been trading up all throughout the morning in the preopen. so we saw caterpillar, vulcan materials, anything related to that group trading to the upside as well. mining and steel stocks, mining and metal stocks of any kind
have been doing very well this morning. we've seen vale, freeport- freeport-mcmoran, u.s. steel moving to the upside as well. and of course pharma and biotech have been terrific all throughout the morning. and they traded very heavily. and they were among the heaviest trading stocks at the open. some of them trade right around the corner here. and they were all on the upside. in terms of the downside, stocks on the trade issue is an issue. kansas city southern mentioned very early this morning down rather notably. of course they run the rail lieb lines from united states through mexico. that's been down. and auto stocks some of the suppliers on trade issues so we saw lear and delphi, all stocks trading down prior to that. and naturally on issues about obamacare being repealed, all the hospital stocks also trading down thc, community health care, hca holdings as well. but i think it's pretty remarkable we have very good volume floor here, 200 million
shares, that's a lot. normally we wouldn't see that until roughly 11:30 or so. so bottom line a lot of volatility with the dow up six points here. carl, back to you. >> bob, thank you for that. of course markets all around the world are digesting politically what happened in the united states across the board. for a look at the asian markets reaction let's go to beijing and euni eunice. >> investors in asia shocked by trump's stunning upset and that ub certainty played out in the markets. nikkei dropped by 5%. after the dust settled the japanese prime minister contacted donald trump to wish him congratulations and also the chinese president xi jinping called donald trump to wish him congratulations, but also to tell him that he had hoped that the u.s.-china relationship would remain stable. now, the chinese's president message was telling, because if you believe all the anti-trade rhetoric around trump's
campaign, trump wants anything but that. trump has called china a cheater, trying to steal american jobs, a currency manipulator, he's also threatened to hit china with tariffs on imports of 45%. so if those policies do go through, china could face great disruption to a relationship with a very important trading partner. now on the security front it's a totally different story. beijing could -- might welcome a trump presidency. and i say that because under president obama and the asia -- his pivot to asia, the u.s. was increasing its presence here economically with tpp and also strategically with greater patrols in the south china sea. but every single indication of a trump presidency is that the u.s. could withdraw from the asia pacific region. and that could leave a void for china to more freely pursue its strategic and economic goals in the region. carl. >> thank you very much for that,
eunice. by the way, not that it matters at this point, nbc is saying that minnesota, hillary clinton the apparent winner. and she as of this morning was on track to win the popular vote. in fact, she would be the fifth presidential candidate to win the popular vote and lose the electoral college. >> gracious, gracious concession. >> wow. >> first since 2000 and gore/bush. >> geez. >> and we expect to hear from her 10:30 a.m. eastern time in just about 40 minutes. >> there are companies that i mean i wish people -- try use limit orders. people come in buying stocks, home depot i say you should buy down three, now up -- use limit orders, that's crazy. take a stock, let's take united rentals, why this one? because you're not going to go and buy a caterpillar tractor. you're going to rent one if you're going to go do something. so that stock which had been heavily bet against suddenly goes up a lot. now, i can make a case over the
course of the next five months that they're going to do that. five months. but over the next five days what i fear is that you could come in a couple days from now. and we're not going to be talking as granularly about this. i'm just trying to caution people you buy something up 6, there's going to be profit taking later in the afternoon by someone who's owned that dog going to say, holy cow, out of the kennel. >> people are going after broad themes. i mean, repatriation of overseas cash. >> right. >> the benefits of that. >> yes. >> they're looking at the list of all the companies that have a lot of cash and buying them. drug prices being no longer threatened perhaps. >> right. i think that's fair. >> they're buying those. >> the banks to your point earlier and maybe we create some inflation, we've already got rates up this morning, buying those. dodd/frank and obviously aca being repealed, that's why the hospitals, bob, we pointed out sharply.
it's hard to figure out how the hmos play and anti-trust where we've got of course the government suing two big hmo deals to block them. you know, it's unclear where he's going to stand on antitrust. you would think he would be sort of free market but at the same time he said at&t/time warner shouldn't happen. >> i know. again, that's the populist anti-establishment does the independents of these arms, remember the nixon period, he fired people. could we get back into that kind of regime? i don't know. i mean, i think that you have to keep thinking anti-establishment, anti-establishment that he won't necessarily be captured by the interest. maybe he blows up the interest. i mean, do you think paul ryan -- i mean, paul ryan -- >> i don't know. i think it will be fascinating to watch the inner play between a republican congress and a republican president. but they're not all aligned. >> no. ryan was careful about even saying the name trump.
i imagine he's going to say it a lot more this morning. >> he's too no-trump for those of you who know bridge. bridge a good game. >> and then we've got the likes, i mean, fitch now coming out saying trump policies would be a negative for u.s. public finances. we've all seen the numbers if his tax plan were to actually take effect broadly speaking, not just on the corporate side but taking all the numbers -- taking all the rates down. >> right. >> generating as much as $6 trillion in deficit spending over ten years. that is not something that's going to be embraced by some republicans. >> although others -- other strategists this morning argued it reduces the risk of a showdown over the debt ceiling. >> right. right. i also -- look, those of us who followed that reagan administration know you simplify the rigates and suddenly more money -- i mean, rates are crazy. one thing our friend jim stewart did a piece about what the rates would be under hillary clinton. who could understand it?
if you simplify the rates trump is talking about. >> and eliminate all deductions or most of them. >> the utilities are going down so hard because people feel he is going to do the $500 billion borrowing. you know, utilities, even coal utilities are going down. >> right, but the coal companies are going up. >> well, yes. >> there's not many of them and they don't have very large market value, but console energy up 10%. >> this is the lunacy. union pacific opened down, it's now up. the mid orders people, norfolk southern, yeah, i like norfolk southern, yeah, up five bucks. think. think. >> do you think we will ever see 1.7 again on the 10-year? as your friend doug cass said overnight generational. >> yeah, i really think so. this guy borrows. >> twitter is up. it is up. >> twitter makes sense.
i mean -- >> as opposed to all of tech -- not all, a lot of tech is down, not sharply. >> twitter is up 2.5%. >> it was easier to put the real donald trump than it was to spend $100 million. >> that guy did more f for them in terms of their ability to show they can reach people and influence. >> and turned out that trump created more value than dorsey. dorsey should go to square, kind of let -- you know. >> i wonder if trump bought the stock. >> ceo-less. >> plus he'll inherit the potus handle, all the followers the white house has gathered will be transferred over in the new administration. >> geez, so much money is going to be lost here. i don't know how to try to tell people not to lose this much money. caterpillar up 6, caterpillar a great american company, the u.s. was weak, china was good. if you do a trade war with china. >> this is day one of four years and to carl's point just think
about the tweeting that could go on at 3:00 in the morning from the white house that could immediately get the pajamas traders going on something. >> geez, no sleep for a long time. >> four years. >> four years will be a long time. >> long time to not go to sleep. >> yeah. >> i'm just saying there are people who are using market orders that are buying stocks, or there are short sellers who are saying holy cow, i thought hillary clinton under a hillary clinton regime all the coal plants like they did in china all coal plants cease to exist and norfolk southern is greatest short ever. then new guy comes in and says i favor coal and norfolk southern is greatest long. so everybody was short norfolk southern has to go long it. i mean, you're buying -- all i'm saying is you're buying on top of not necessarily tear fir ma, you agree with me? >> yes, going to be tough to find until we see action. >> pattern recognition. >> none. >> i wonder amazon was about to
do that if you like hillary clinton you may like, i don't know, first solar. all those orders are being canceled now. you can cancel prime if you act fast enough. >> how are you going to lay out "mad money" tonight? >> i have a couple guests i think jack hartung at chipotle and chip johnson to me the most aggressive driller in the world. in the end what we're going to try to figure out is retribution with the hillary thing. is the system rigged? if the system is rigged, as donald trump said over and over again, was it -- is it no longer rigged? right? i mean, if you win, it doesn't seem all that rigged. >> especially if you lose the popular vote and still win the electoral college. >> like hayes tilton, there's no core bargain here. he won so maybe the rigging -- maybe it wasn't rigged and that could change the tenor.
i mean maybe because it's not rigged he's kind of maybe malice. >> right. >> i remember there was a period where i adopted an attitude that was malice toward all and charity toward none, that was a bad period. but maybe he goes with the lincoln, remember how malice toward none and charity toward all? linco lincoln. no? my wife has tickets to hamilton tonight. >> what a show, big week, big year. >> let's not forget isis, let's not forget uncertainty, let's not forget iran. are they going to get the money. is boeing going to get the order. think about these things before we buy, buy, buy. i will say right now bye, bye, bye. >> see you tonight. >> that's the b-y-e kind. >> not farewell. >> yeah, fa, long long way to go, partner. >> let's get to rick santelli at the bond pits in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. well, i guess the only way to look at it is steeper, deeper and stronger today.
if you look at one-week charts of 2s, 5s and 10s, you can see we had a lot of volatility at the short end, about where it was yesterday. the further down the curve you go the higher yields are. and of course the same is true for europe, the same is true pretty much around the globe for sovereigns. and in regard to deeper and steeper, let's look at some of the yield curve spreads, shall we? if we look at february 1st, this is the steepest and quick move for 10s minus 2s hovering around 1.10, 1.11. if we look at 30s minus 5s, about the steepest since may hovering around just under 1.40. when it comes to what's going on with 10s minus bunds, this is big time here. basically april of 2015 maybe the differential was higher as we hover right under 1.80, but a 20-year chart tells you everything you need to know. this is basically stratosphere with regard to the difference between our yields and their yields. keep in mind what happened in january. okay. we saw that europe pulled our
rates down because of this spread in many ways, because of the calibration of central banks being so yub form, because the notion that whether it was d.c., brussels or cleveland indians, the outcomes were for sure because all the elites know, they know, they know exactly what's going to happen. but maybe people that aren't necessarily as bright seem to have some efficacy last night, or brexit or what have you. now, with regard to deeper and stronger, i look up and i see up 55 in the stock market. that's because the algorithms and the computerized trade aren't very deep even though their volumes were big, volumes were big because a lot of hedge funds around the globe that played the betting sites thought they had it nailed, just like brexit. i know jim says i wouldn't buy the highs here. maybe there will be the highs for awhile, but come on, let's look at the price of admission here. tax reform, both houses on pennsylvania avenue, regulations, both houses and pennsylvania avenue. let's look at obamacare, both
houses and pennsylvania avenue. those three issues alone should make it so you're really not going to be buying the high. yes, we are long in the tooth on this business cycle, but don't underestimate growth and don't underestimate the notion that the fed will probably jump onboard and eventually it will be seen as a good thing. we're stemming the world with regarding pension funds and wrongheadedness pulling all these rates in the wrong direction zapping all the vinegar out of the system. and finally, stronger and deeper not only goes for the stock market. look at the dollar index. it's now up about a half a cent. that make sense. now, i know there's a lot of issues with mexico. as there should be. with regard to the dollar in general, i just think it's a great barometer for overall sustainability, a word we haven't been able to use regarding the economy for a very long time. carl, back to you. >> rick, we'll talk to you soon, rick santelli. if you're just joining us this morning this is "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange. obviously markets being wh
whipsawed as a lot of investors clearly out of position given results last night. sweeping victory not just for donald trump but for the gop at large as they control the house, the senate, the executive branch. of course you've probably seen it already a lot of people calling it perhaps the biggest political upset in at least a generation, maybe ever. oil is worth watching as well down some 15 cents. >> and how about the swing from u.s. futures down more than 800 points. we saw it happen overnight, carl, to now a positive market with the dow up 26. clearly the research notes are coming in and wall street banks are holding conference calls what does this mean for the assessment of the u.s. economy. it feels lst a balancbalance, h spending on infrastructure donald trump has already suggested. worth 0.75% of gdp but having to
offset that with big uncertainties like the trade rhetoric, donald trump in his victory speech that we saw early this morning did sort of extend a hand to foreign powers. we will deal fairly with you, the question is what does a president trump do when it comes to some of those threats he made in those rust belt rallies about calling china currency manipulator and threatening tariffs and saying they're stealing our jobs. that's why emerging markets are worth watching as well. >> as david and jim pointed out in the last hour, market just doesn't know how much of that political red meat that both democrats and republicans give on the trail will actually make its way into becoming policy. interestingly we're seeing companies now reacting to the results. gm out with a statement, looking forward to working with president-elect trump and the new congress on policies that support a strong and competitive u.s. manufacturing base. >> yeah. gm down, ford also down concern there about what it may mean for that manufacturing base for them
or what they're forced to do in terms of where they manufacture. that's right. although it's a lot of the foreign manufacturers even more capacity in mexico than do the u.s. but interesting to see that. and the market overall being defined sort of in a couple of areas. we're flat on the s&p, we're seeing the financials up fairly sharply with the idea of higher rates of maybe the idea of inflation, of dodd/frank being potentially repealed. and we're seeing a lot of the health care industry sharply higher, particularly the pharmaceutical/biotech stocks which were big cap companies. all up in part because many of them have a lot of overseas cash and therefore will be beneficiaries of tax reform, particularly that focus on corporate taxes coming down and the repatriation of those foreign cash reserves, and the idea, sara, that drug prices perhaps are no longer going to be a focus given they certainly seem to be in a clinton administration. >> ibb, the biotech etf jumping
the most since 2008. on the other hand you have some hospitals and insurance companies under pressure on this idea that trump has promised along with republicans to repeal obamacare. >> right. and the hospital stocks are down dramatically. they're not that large market cap wise, so they're not as much of an impact overall on the s&p. >> let's get more reaction joining us ubs director of floor operations art cashin joining us this morning. >> good morning. >> markets got it completely wrong again, like we saw in brexit. the question is what comes next. do you believe in this rally? >> i think first of all the heavy selling, just as the heavy buying on monday and tuesday had as far as i could tell a foreign nudge to it, they were terrified and i guess still remain terrified of mr. trump. so to them where does that put global trading and where do things go from there? yeah, i'm kind of satisfied with the rally.
we have some mild resistance here at 2145, to 2150. and if they can work their way through it, what's going to be essential here is how quickly he begins to send out signals. who does he pick for his cabinet? what does he want to discuss about as david alluded to the repatriation of the money that's offshore? okay, we're going to hit you with a 10% surcharge, bring it all back in. that would be a tremendous rush of money into the country. and if they can use some of that for infrastructure on a variety of other ways, i think the market could get quite mollified and easy to live with new mr. trump but the key will be the cabinet and first official moves that he makes. >> on the other hand there's the trade question, there's the geopolitical question, which could open up pandora's box. certainly it seemed markets, that investors took comfort in the sort of gracious tone that trump struck in his first words as president-elect. are those big question marks for
you? big risk factors for the market? >> well, i think they'll want to see more for example getting back to the europeans. some of them are wondering will he begin to dismantle nato, will things like that happen. it was interesting that putin sent a congratulatory note right away. that may be the beginning of maybe a little test he's going to give the new president-elect. >> meaning do you really want to restore relations, because we're ready as putin said. >> and he might be able to work out a couple of deals around energy and whatnot. if it doesn't go as well as he hopes, then we may see a test in the ukraine. it is traditional for foreign leaders to test a new president here in the united states. so we can expect that. it will be interesting to see not only the cabinet but who he surrounds himself with. in this speech last night he mentioned having the advice of several hundred generals. so he's going to rely pretty hef
s ly on the military it would sound like. i think he's going to take a much quieter approach and maybe they'll keep him off twitter for awhile and we'll see what the next move is. >> what about the fed, art? you've been very focused on it. investors have been very focused on it. he has raised questions in this campaign about janet yellen's motives, about her being political. her term is up in 2018. do you expect her to stay? and if so, are we talking about a lame duck federal reserve? >> well, it's possible. by the way, he can make two other appointments right now because there are two vacancies. but it will be interesting. i wrote in my comments this morning that we have to wait and see if janet yellen decides she wants to tender her resignation. as an offering to an incoming president-elect who was in fact critical of her. >> hasn't been the style of past
fed chairman to do that when a president comes in. >> but incoming presidents haven't been critical of past fed chairmen. so this is a little bit different here. we'll wait and see. i think he's going to take this in a slow and steady pace. i'm going to look very carefully again at who he puts in the cabinet and any of the first overtures. >> when you say that art, i know it's too early to judge, but what are you looking for to give you confidence? >> i would be looking for treasury secretary, something like that, the person with pretty visible qualifications. it's not a poker playing buddy, i'm used to him, we hang out, he's got some great ideas. no, i'd like somebody who not only would give me some relaxation but have enough credibility that foreign powers would say that's a pretty good choice. and i think if you get one or
two of those, the market will become much more relaxed. they are in a very, very unique situation here. if trump can avoid a recession and in fact bring on a little prosperity and buff up his image, you're going to have a key intermediate election in 2018. going to be a saloon full of democratic senate seats up. if they can hold on they can make a decade long change in what's going. >> by they you mean -- >> the republicans. >> i want to talk about them adding to the house in '18. >> yes. in '18 i would really look to the senate because that would leave them with a kind of reagan like legacy that could go well past how long mr. trump stays in office. >> already looking ahead to the next election still trying to digest what happened last night and this morning. art cashin, thanks for joining us as always. >> for more analysis, for more
filling in the white spaces that we did not get filled last night in terms of granular data, let's turn to our chief washington correspondent john harwood at hq as we await clinton departing her hotel for the new yorker hotel and that speech expected at 10:30. john. >> carl, let's first recap the scale of donald trump's victory, which is stunning. took many, many people by surprise. in fact, some in trump's campaign by surprise. everyone in clinton's campaign by surprise. he's gotten 278 electoral votes so far. it looks like he has narrow victories in michigan, in wisconsin. those were critical. democrats did not expect those to happen. and he defied pre-election polling and all the forecast models. in the senate, republicans also pulled off an unexpected feat. they have so far only lost one of their incumbents. we've got a couple of races undecided, but they are now down only one seat, 53 at the moment is the count for them. that means mitch mcconnell
remains the majority leader. it means he from the standpoint of the goals he was trying to achieve he was vindicated in his decision to block merrick garland. going to have about 240 seats, but paul ryan should he remain the speaker and that's a question among some trump supporters is going to have a working majority that can get some things done with this republican president, republican senate. let's look at a couple of the policy flash points. first of all, donald trump is going to be on offense on a set of issues where he is completely in sync with republicans. first of all, there is obamacare. you can bet that they're going to take a serious run at repealing obamacare. it will be difficult to do because of the consequences of that, but that is something you should expect. trade is an issue where he has been very consistent and crystal clear on how he feels about
nafta and the transpacific partnership. markets are going to have to adjust to that, business is going to have to adjust. climate policy, the paris climate agreement that the united states was a major part of, the clean power plan that president obama has implemented, all that is going to go away. and will something else replace it? don't know. but that's an area where donald trump is in sync with paul ryan and other republicans. finally, on both tax rates and infrastructure, you can expect tax rates for business and top end individuals to come down. you can expect infrastructure spending to go up. but now here's where trump is on defense. the flip side of some of those h issu issues. first of all on immigration, even in this victory republicans know that long term they need to improve their relationship with the latino community, which continues to grow. donald trump is going to have difficulty building that wall and trying to make mexico pay for it and trying to deport the illegal immigrants on the scale that he's talked about.
we don't know how that's going to come out in the end, but he's going to face some republican resistance there. entitlement reform, he has said he does not want to adjust benefits to medicare and social security. this is something that paul ryan who cares very much about the debt deeply believes in. and so he's going to resist donald trump on that. we don't know how that is going to shake out, although given the political dynamics you can bet that without presidential leadership that's not going to happen. and finally, the budget deficit. i think that is the biggest flashpoint of all. donald trump is someone who likes to borrow and build things. are there going to be offsetting cuts? not for entitlements. what about tax increases to close loopholes and pay for those lower rates? that's a difficult bet as well. so i think the deficit is one of the biggest areas of potential problem for donald trump and how he manages that and how much of a deficit increase republicans are willing to live with. >> finally, john, big topic of discussion this morning was where or who is the center of
power in the democratic party right now? who will be his chief opposition politically? >> well, nancy pelosi in the house and chuck schumer, who is a very talented democratic leader of the senate. he's not going to have a majority, but in the senate when it's closely divided you still have a significant amount of power. i would expect that to the extent democrats are able to roadblock republican priorities that republicans would move to either evade through budget reconciliation or through an outright rules change the senate filibuster. this is something democrats were poised to do had chuck schumer become the leader hillary clinton became the president if they were blocked on supreme court, they were going to get rid of that filibuster. so i think that is very much on the table. i think among the many changes that american politics is that the historic traditions of the senate don't attract the same kind of reverence anymore and i would not expect that to change. but we're going to have to see
what democrats do and whether that small number of moderate republicans do, people like susan collins, john mccain, bob corker, lamar alexander, on what issues do they make common cause with democrats to put the brakes on donald trump and the more ideology aggressive republican conservatives. don't know the answer to that yet. >> yeah, that's going to be stretched that is for sure. john, thank you for that. our john harwood. one question this morning, what does a trump win mean for oil companies and commodity prices? our jackie deangelis watching that at the nymex. good morning, jackie. >> good morning, carl. after a knee-jerk reaction in the oil market that is we are seeing prices pretty stable this morning jurs under $45 a barrel. that tells you oil traders are pretty much accepting the trump presidency here. we have an inventory report in about 15 minutes time. we're looking for a build, so that tends to be bearish, but there are two sides to the trump energy trade here. the first is the currency play. we've talked about the dollar
strength we've seen all morning. certainly that will be a bearish factor for oil prices, watch that but most expect dollar to stabilize a bit. on the policy side when it comes to donald trump and what he's going to do, right now it's about anticipation. obviously some of these changes are going to take time to implement, but the idea here is that regulation will be loosened and overall that will be good for big oil. we will drill more, we will frac more. that could potentially pressure prices, but remember when we fell to almost 26, the industry regulated itself in some ways and we control that supply/demand balance. we're also in a situation right now where opec is feeling the pinch and it may come at the end of the month and tell us that it is in fact going to cut its own production. so net/net energy traders are saying this is going to be positive for energy, for big oil as well. and remember when big oil stocks move, we do see the major equity indices move as well. this is also going to be positive on the jobs side, not just for the drillers, the fraccers, but also the pipeline
companies will increase those infrastructure projects. that will help get oil around and put people to work. so right now oil prices are pretty much stable on this. back to you. >> there are so many sectors emerging here, winners and losers, off of this, jackie, thank you. take a look at where the broad stock market is trading. an extraordinary turnaround from what we saw just hours ago in the overnight futures market when dow futures were down more than 800 points. now the dow is trading down by 9 points. it was even positive at one point this morning. the s&p down a little more. and the tech heavy nasdaq is down about half a percent. we're going to continue to look at the market implications, what it all means for stocks and your portfolio. and here's a live shot. hillary clinton is about to leave her hotel. the peninsula in midtown manhattan, and head to the new yorker hotel where she will be speaking. for the first time since making that call conceding the race to donald trump. we will bring you that as soon as it happens. stay with us here on "squawk on the street." the dow is down 12 points.
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it is the day after america's decision day, markets have recovered in large part from last night's giant dip. but treasury yields are higher, interesting action, bonds are selling off, yields at the highest levels since back in march of this year. what does a trump win mean for individual sectors like health care and financials. we're really seeing some separation in terms of winners and losers. joins us at post nine to discuss that is adam shore, director of
global equity strategists janus capital. apologies, adam, you're not at post nine, but we are happy to see you. tell us we're seeing banks move higher, where do you see sector specific opportunity on the trump win with the republican congress? >> i think we are seeing it in some of the stocks move but may be more behind us. so you see in the infrastructure stocks that have been strong that part of the trump plan to spend more there, i think health care is a tremendous sector. we've seen some recovery, but we still think we're coming off very low valuations. and a little relief on the regulatory pressure is good, but just some of the competitive opportunities in health care still remain and that's where we want to be invested as well. >> so are you making moves? are you buying this morning? >> well, we didn't really pull away. we didn't have a trump or a clinton portfolio. but, yeah, there's nothing
defensive about how we're investing right now. we've been buying in our health care portfolio, biotech for some time on its weakness and there's nothing changing there at all. >> michelle, how does it change your outlook on the economy? it seems like economists are trying to balance the fiscal outlook with the more global uncertainty. >> yeah, i mean, i think on net it's a positive. it will prove to be a positive. i guess i'm making an assumption that what we see from president trump in terms of trade and immigration will be more scaled down than some of the rhetoric that we heard particularly early on in the campaign. and when you take a more scaled down less aggressive approach on those two areas and you combine that with the tax cuts that we are likely to see, the reduction in the regulatory burden, the boost to the energy sector, i mean, i think net/net this is going to be a positive for u.s. growth. it's been so long since we've had anything we could point to
as impetus that could set us onto a higher growth path. and finally now we have that. and so i'm actually more optimistic about the potential for future growth than i have been in quite some time. >> adam, market seems to want to spin the narrative that everything michelle just talked about happens, he's able to demonstrate a commitment to growth early on. he puts a lot of the swagger in a box. he puts some at least of this protectionist talk in a box, how likely is it? >> you know, it's always a tough question. but as she points out, i mean, the rhetoric before an election or before you're elected is always a lot stronger than what you can accomplish. i think we take some comfort from the fact you have a republican house and republican senate and a way to check some of those policies. so on balance we hope that's what happens. we think that's what will happen. there's certainly no guarantee. and it could be some days that are volatile based on what he
says. again, we hope that's not the long term path. we remain quite bullish. >> if you look to carl's question some of the losers on the dow right now, the biggest one in terms of percentage decliners is apple, ibm, intel, coca-cola, p&g, disney, these are big multinational companies that do a lot of business overseas. while they might gain from a repatriation holiday bringing that money from overseas, adam, can you buy a multinationals with a threat looming of a potential trade war? >> we hope there isn't a potential trade war. i think some of those -- there's a range of stocks you mentioned and some of those have been kind of seen as defensive staples have gone -- that probably got overvalued and we think we're in an opportunity where you can be more active, less defensive, more opportunistic in the portfolio, in your portfolios. some might be hurt by immigration in some of the tech sectors.
there's probably a lot of factors. we don't see a massive trade war coming, happening, we don't think that would be good for markets and i don't think that's something we would use as an investment criteria. >> michelle, how do you read the action in the bond market? the move up in the 10-year yield from 1.71 overnight to 1.96 where we are right now. >> well, clearly the market is beginning to focus on the potential now for much more aggressive fiscal stimulus. we'll have a larger deficit. and of course as you talked about earlier the potential for a much different ultimately rate hiking path for the federal reserve if janet yellen is presumably not reappointed and somebody with more hawkish leanings is put into place. so you've got both of those factors, i think, contributing to this upward move in treasury yields. >> you don't think there's any concern at all about the full faith and credit of u.s. government debt, the u.s. dollar as the world's reserve currency
in there were some dire warnings going into this vote that that could be at risk. >> well, i mean, i think again, if we're talking about the potential now for growth in the u.s. to be stronger, if we're talking about the potential for the federal reserve ultimately to be raising interest rates by more than we otherwise thought, those things should be supportive for the u.s. dollar and consistent with a stronger outlook for the u.s. we're talking about getting our monetary fiscal policy mix i think in more align to sustainable growth outlook for the u.s. and in the end i think all of that should be positive for the greenback. >> all right. well, certainly investors are remaining optimistic. the dow is positive. adam, michelle, thank you for joining us this morning. >> thank you. when we come back, we are awaiting hillary clinton to start speaking shortly at the new yorker hotel in manhattan. when she begins, of course we will take that live. the markets still trying to sort a lot of things out.
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good morning everyone. and welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sue herera. here's your cnbc news update at this hour. russian president vladimir putin congratulating donald trump on winning the presidential election. putin says he hopes to work together to improve relations between the two countries. [ speaking in a foreign language ] >> translator: as i have repeatedly said, it is not our fault that the russian-american relations are in a poor state. but russia is ready and wants to restore the full fledged relations with the united states. british police say a tram derailed in south london killing five and injuring at least 50 people. emergency workers at the scene trying to free two people in the wreckage. the cause of the derailment is
under investigation. recreational use of marijuana will soon be legal in california. proposition 64 passing by a wide margin. adults 21 and older can legally possess up to one ounce of marijuana and can grow up to six plants. you're up-to-date, that's the news update for you this hour. i'll send it back down to you, sara. >> busy one for us, thank you, sue. not just u.s. markets volatile in the first hours of trading, equity markets around the world are trying to price in a donald trump presidential victory. let's talk to editor of the bloom, boom and doom report, marc fauber, mark, good morning to you. >> good morning to you. thank you. >> so how does a trump presidency affect your view or change your view at all of the global markets and economy which should note is usually a pretty bearish one to begin with. >> yes. basically i think that on the
bouts hillary clinton and donald trump would go up because they both would increase the deficit and at the same time we have overseas especially emerging economies and specifically in asia huge infrastructure expenditures coming. so that should be good for commodity prices. so within the stock market i think anything that is commodity related will do well. secondly, the obvious trade with a trump victory is to own russian and kazakhstan assets. bonds and equities. that is the obvious trade for the simple reason that mr. trump has a more benign view of the world and respects the perspective of foreign leaders whereas mrs. clinton was far too aggressive for the world. >> well, the russian ruble was
one of the beneficiaries in terms of the emerging markets currencies overnight, marc, what do you do with the rest of the emerging markets currencies, bonds, stocks, on this rising risk of trade tensions? >> well, i don't think that trade sanctions or tensions will be as strong as is perceived. my feeling is if i look at the asian stock market, we have many other factors that investors have to price in than a trump victory. under trump, tpp is off the table. that would be my impression. but many asian countries were not all that much in favor of tpp to start with. and they also highlighted the disadvantages for emerging markets on the tpp. so i don't think that it's a negative. the fact is simply that asia nowadays is china centric and depends on the chinese economy and no longer very much on the
u.s. >> marc, a lot of people are trying to include trump in this club of strongman leaders that includes putin, erdogan, the philippines. are you seeing evidence that any of that if you believe it is demonstratablely negative for u.s. stocks? >> well, i think that eventually stocks will move according to economic fundamentals. in the u.s. we have a fully priced stock market. and overseas european stocks are relatively less expensive than the u.s. or relative bargain, and the large bargain you can find in emerging markets in my opinion. >> you've been no fan before of u.s. government debt. we're seeing a big jump in yields this morning. 1.97 selling of u.s. government bonds, have we seen the bottom of that trade? and how high do yields go from
here and how fast do you think? >> well, i think if the 10-year's note went to around 2% in the next few days, i would be buying 10-year treasury notes because i believe the economy in the u.s. is slowing down regardless whether you would have had clinton or trump. i think the higher yields that are now being priced into the market will have or will start to have a negative impact on economic growth. >> marc faber, good to check in with you this morning after the u.s. election. thank you, marc faber. >> thank you very much. >> the gloom, boom and doom report. speaking of infrastructure trades, carl, caterpillar at the top of the dow. >> that and pfizer have been leading the charge all morning long. in fact, as we go to break, take a look at stocks this morning. dow's down 31, s&p hanging in at 2130. we'll have a lot more after the break. hillary clinton expected to
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markets relatively flat this morning as investors continue to digest last night's election results and the impact of president-elect trump. as we await secretary hillary clinton's first public comments since conceding the race early this morning, we are joined this morning from washington by former dnc senior advisor steve mcmahon. and with us at post nine with more reaction informal trump campaign advisor and cnbc contributor larry kudlow. gentlemen, good morning. larry, when we spoke last night, futures were limit down. you were suggesting maybe there would need to be some massaging of markets today. not necessary. >> i know. it really came back -- it's funny. i'd written a piece yesterday before this thing that if trump won buy the dip, and if hillary won, sell the rally. little did i know i'd get it right about once every six
years. but you're right, things stabilized pretty fast. look, i would just say this very briefly, steve may disagree and so forth. donald trump there is a lot of ambiguity on protectionism and trade. i get that. okay. i think that's going to hangover for awhile. but the rest of his program is so pro-growth, so pro-stocks, so pro-profits, major league tax cuts, major league rollback of regulations, rollback obamacare, energy infrastructure, those kinds of things are solid pro-growth, got to help the stock market. at some point that's going to sink in. ill roadw i really believe that. >> how and when will we know the stuff you like is kept and the stuff you don't is pushed aside. >> particularly the tax reform, we've never had a problem with that. mr. trump really did everything basically that steve moore and i and others wanted him to do. health care was an easy one.
trade will be -- they'll be some internal discussions about trade, there's no question about it. my own sense is, and i have not talked to anybody -- well, that's not true, but i've not talked to mr. trump certainly. i think in the last two weeks going after the rust belt i think his bark was very significant. i think ultimately his bite when policies are made will be much less onerous, a lot of these things are going to be worked out. remember, he has to work with a republican senate and a republican house. and that's a moderate influence on something like that. >> you think it will be a moderating influence? i'm reading the first three of his seven actions to protect american workers from his contract with the american worker, one of his key things, number one intentional renegotiate nafta or withdraw, number two, withdraw from the tpp, we can assume that, number three, label china currency manipulator. number one, two, three. >> i don't have any trouble -- look, i have a quick fix for nafta. i mean this. just go to a border adjustable
tax system. which we had put in in our original tax reform. it's in the paul ryan-kevin brady, just never quite made it into the trump position. i believe it will. look, american imports to mexico have a 16% value added tax. mexican impo duty free. right there you have an unfairness, which i think is what the candidate or president-elect is more worried about. i don't think he's going to end -- he's not going to end nafta. >> deutsche bank today, steve, says the most important thing he ever said is, anything i say right now i'm not the president, everything is a suggestion. so how much of david's point about this contract can be taken to the bank? >> well, i mean, look, he ran on a platform and a program that people voted for, so there's going to be some pressure both from the people who voted for him and i presume from republicans in congress to follow through on the promises that he's made. i mean, i think larry's right. it's going to be -- it remains to be seen in my view whether it's a pro-growth agenda. it certainly is a pro-business agenda.
and it's an agenda that shouldn't make wall street nervous, it should probably make wall street feel very comfortable and reassured today. i think he's also right that some of the bark is worse than the bite. congratulations to him for winning, nobody and certainly i didn't think he was going to win, but i think it's going to be a lot more difficult to achieve the kind of change he's talked about than it is to talk about it on the campaign trail. >> and, larry, one thing that factors in i just wanted to ask you we're hearing from investor after investor including art cashin at the top of the hour that one of the key factors for investors that they want to see is credible appointments in the cabinet and people around him. >> absolutely. >> advise him. he's the ultimate outsider, billionaire businessman coming in. your sense is what? >> well, look, years ago when i worked with reagan this is the same. almost like an instant replay. reagan comes in, great hostility from the establishment, great hostility from the newspapers and so forth. and reagan brought with him a whole batch of new people who
had never really served in senior positions. not everybody, but guys like me i was 31 years old, i wind up as associate director of omb, a position for which i was uniquely unqualified. i will say that. and you try to work your way into it. ght in a whole batch of new people. >> people like you. >> and i just wanted to respond to steve because the issue of change is really important. you know, we got into this a little bit towards the back end last night. to me, look, economic growth, that's my area. and i think trump's going to all be for that and the house and they're going to agree on that. but step back a minute. what was he saying? he's saying the elites in washington and elsewhere have not done their job. okay. what he calls now the forgotten man or the forgotten folks are unhappy, they're cranky, they're angry, their wages haven't gone up in many years. when he talks about draining the
swamp, with that being clear definition, people know what he's talking about. the corruption in washington, the corporate welfare, the crony capitalism, it's in both political parties. all the k street maneuvererings, they get what they want and need, but you don't get anything. that was his original idea. it's still his idea. it's the idea he finished with in the campaign. >> sure. >> i think you just have to look at that. that's what you're going to get. he is going to try to stand up to the status quo. and wherever he can say no. we're going to do it this way, we're going to try to protect americans out there in the rust belt and elsewhere and that's my job. >> steve, will the democrats try to refine the same argument? >> i was just going to make the point to larry that he's right, that was donald trump's message. actually, if you look at the core of bernie sanders' message, it was basically the same message. now the grievance or the solution sort of went to a different part of wall street or
the economy in bernie sanders', you know, proposed solutions than it does for donald trump. but there's no question that they're both speaking to the worker whose wages haven't gone up, the institutions are failing them, washington isn't working for them and bernie sanders had radical solutions for change. so did donald trump. the one thing that i think larry and i are sitting here agreeing on is the voters are sick and tired of institutions in government that doesn't work. they voted for change last night. i suspect a lot of people in those swing states and the upper midwest that voted for bernie sanders cast their vote last night for donald trump. they weren't telling pollsters they were going to do it, but they went out and did it. >> i think you're dead right, steve. and i agree on the bernie sanders thing. and again i'll just say, to understand what happened last night and to try to forecast what's going to happen in the months ahead as the government is put together with policy, it's going to be all about change. and change that only an outsider
can bring. that is the guts of mr. trump's message. and, yeah, i hope he listens to guys like me. he's been listening to a lot of people, but they want change. the folks, as bill o'riley calls them, the folks, the folks want change. so do i. i want change, damn it. >> they're killing me here. >> i look like i don't want change, but i want change. i want change. >> larry, thanks so much. steve, good to see you. >> good to see you, steve mcmahon. good to see you, buddy. >> thank you. take a look at stocks here this hour. the dow has slipped back into negative territory. we've been all over the map. it's only down 12 points though, which looks a whole lot better than where futures were overnight. at one point down more than 800 points. and you're looking at a live shot here where we are expecting to hear from secretary -- former secretary of state hillary clinton, her first reaction to losing the presidential race to donald trump. we'll take it to you live as soon as she comes. ♪ it's been over 100 years since
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our next guest predicted a trump victory with us on monday, based on his analysis of the dow and political polls. take a listen. >> i figure that the popular vote is going to tip toward trump, probably two to four points. it hasn't shown up yet in the polling averages. real current politics is still as of this morning's preliminary number 1.9 points in favor of mrs. clinton, but i think that that's going to shift today, if we get any poll numbers today, and it will shift by the time we count the popular vote tomorrow. >> tom mcclellan is editor of the mcclellan market report, made that prediction with us on monday and joins us on the phone today. tom, good to see you again. >> hi, carl. >> you got a hard time after that segment from some followers on twitter. what made you so certain? because you were relatively certain. >> well, and i've got to clarify
that i didn't get the call exactly right. the popular vote is tied as of this morning, so not quite what the margin of victory that i was expecting. but what i was seeing that i guess others weren't seeing that the polling numbers follow the movements of the stock market, but they follow it with a lag time. i had watched the dow decline last week. remember we were talking about nine straight down days in a row? and that had not yet factored its way into the poll numbers, but it did factor its way into the vote as a reflection of the changing mood that's in the public last week that just hadn't shown up in the poll numbers. and it's not that the poll numbers were wrong, it's just that they were reflecting the reality of several days before, and we had updated information from the market that told me what to expect instead. >> meanwhile, we're all sort of taking stock with the reaction that we got last night, that we're getting today. would you call this a brexit-type reaction, but one
that is condensed into a shorter period of time? >> absolutely, yeah. just before the brexit vote, everybody was sure that britain was going to remain in the eu, and then they got a surprise and we had a two-day sell-off. everybody was sure that mrs. clinton was going to win, and then we got a big sell-off overnight. this is a classic case of american efficiency and productivity. we can get it done overnight what it took two days to do in europe, but i think we sail from here onward into resuming the up trend. >> you see hillary clinton on the move on her way to the new yorker hotel where she is expected to speak some time after 11:00 a.m., which is in five minutes. when that happens, we'll take it live, of course. >> yeah, i'll keep an eye on that motorcade for you. so, tom, let's talk about the why. i mean, the feeling is that we're going to get a big infrastructure, and potentially, defense spending add to this economy, potential repatriation tax holiday so that companies with bring back money from overseas. how do you balance that with some of the bigger uncertainties
looming around trade policy and protectionism and geopolitical uncertainties? >> well, none of those changes can take place until january 21st, and probably not until long after then. in the meantime, the stock market overall, there's really only two factors that matter. the first is how much money is there? and there's a lot of it running around. and the second is how much does that money want to be invested? markets have been paralyzed since this past summer, wondering how the election was going to turn out. now we don't have to wonder anymore and people can get back to putting their money to work. i'm expecting a big up trend into 2017. i do have one more bottom due later this month, probably november 17th to 18th, if it turns out i'm exactly right. but we're in a new up trend, and it's starting out nice and strong, and i expect to see strong trends as we get a few more days' worth of data. >> tom, thanks for coming to the phone. good talking to you two times in one week.
tom mcclellan of the mcclellan market report. >> we've got a lot more, of course, ahead for you on the market, on the business implications of a trump presidency. stay with us. mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle. and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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good morning. welcome to "squawk alley." with us, mike fort, mike santoli at post 9. breaking news, obviously, the markets holding relatively steady following that surprise donald trump victory last night. dow futures had been pointing to a loss of about 800 points at session lows. that would have been the biggest point loss for the dow in its history, but clearly not coming to fruition. we're up 31 right now. we're awaiting comments from hillary clinton, expected to make her first public statement since trump secured those key 270 electoral votes earlier this morning. we expect to see the secretary at the lectern at any moment. we'll bring those comments to you live. we're also expecting comments from house speaker paul ryan in wisconsin at