tv Fast Money CNBC November 15, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
administration, right. once they put a number on that, you know, if it's like $2 trillion or something, i think you're going to see some impact in that in the markets, too. >> the fed certainly would have to take that into regard. if it is true. >> call it stimulus for some reason. >> mike and susan, thank you so much. that does it for us here on "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, kiran finerman, tonight on "fast," confused about how to invest in trump's world? that man, julian emmanuel, has the best way to do it. plus the penny stocks surging under trump. what they are and why investors are so captivated by them. and currencies have gone wild around the world, creating a boon for a number of stocks. we'll tell you how to cash in, even if you don't trade currencies. first we start with another record close for the dow. the index is within striking distance of that key 19,000 level.
it was energy fueling the rally today. check out crude. up about 6%. taking the whole energy sector with it. energy stocks, in fact, soaring nearly 3%. so the economy is growing, as investors appear to be saying it will, as energy now a must-owned sector in the post trump world. pete. >> i don't know if i would put it in the category of must-owned. but i like certain names of energy. i look at something like exxonmobil, huge paper in there the end of last week. as it started so sell off, and it seems like are we in a range or are we not? is oil going to bump? today we saw a little bit. i think what stood out to me today, actually the financials were down. and by the time we got to the end of the day, we finished flat. in terms of energy itself, it makes some sense. a lot of people trying to figure out under a trump presidency, oil seems to be a place you would want to be. maybe even in the coal sector. there are areas where they may be not participated enough. we finally started to see more participation. >> why wouldn't it be must-owned? >> what about -- the only thing i'm a little undecided about is,
when you look at exxonmobil, it benefited from the low rate environment. it was bought for that, bought out of safety. so everyone said it's not going down because of that. >> because of the dividend. >> exactly. so now if all of the dividend is good being thrown out, because of growth -- >> yeah. >> it's very rare, do you thread the needle between two different premises at once. and that's why -- >> probably better ways to play oil. >> right. so if you're in exxonmobil and in it for the dividend but didn't want that dividend, just trying to hide out, then move to something like a name i bought today was continental resources, clr. oil exploration has no hedges on, a pure oil play. that's where gur going to get your gas. >> so the energy stocks without a dividend. also, if you look at the xle, the tif, the tracks, the energy sector, mostly integrated oil, heavily weighted, versus the osx, oil services index, oil services outperformed. up by more than 5% in today's session. so there are pockets of strength, not necessarily with a
dividend out there. >> right. well, the oil services, if they are somewhat idle, and then all of a sudden become in use, that's a huge boon to your bottom line, where some of the other names wouldn't get that much of a bump. but i don't know, to me, we were talking about this the other day. is a trump administration necessarily bullish for oil, or can you make the argument that, you know, regulations are going to be nonexistent, or less existent, and you could have more production, which would be a negative for oil. so i'm not convinced. >> but that's -- >> more demand for oil. >> but that's in a world where demand is static. if we say demand is going to be exactly the way -- the way it is right now, at these levels, and we're going to unleash production of oil in the united states, oil prices go down. but if we are betting on growth, which is what the financials, pete, and industrials have been telling us, there is that demand to support, perhaps, an increase in production. >> yeah, perhaps. >> in theory. this is all -- the theory of it. >> no doubt about it.
i think you bring up a good point in the oil services. because if you go back and look at baker hughes and you look at some of the moves we have seen out of the services names, they have been pretty outstanding. and i'm not talking about just since the presidency. i'm talking about going into the election. some of the moves we saw out of some of the names, pretty spectacular. can they hold on to some of foes moves? i think some can. but it's all a matter of if oil holds on to certain support levels, as well. that breaks -- >> do you buy -- to your point, then, do you buy the refiners, then? if you look at halliburton up in the 30s and 46% or so, slob up 16%, baker is up. i mean, do you go and say that's been the winning trade, that's already happened. do you go refiners where it hasn't been a winning trade because now you're based on more growth, and maybe that input cost is not confirmed just yet. >> i'm not sure the oil rally today was because of more growth. i think it was because of opec saying that arabia is pushing to try to get some curb. i'm not sure i would read into today's action that we're all of
a sudden unleashing global growth. you're not really seeing the commensurate rise. you're just seeing, this is very u.s. -- >> do you think the market is that ignorant, though? and i don't mean you being ignorant. >> no, i can be incredibly ignorant. >> because i think that people have already factored in that opec is going to be a nonevent. and even if they talk a good game, nobody is going to abide by it. you can come out very bullish. >> i don't know. oil was up 5% today. >> i got you. >> so you fade the move in energy stock? that's what you're saying? >> not yet. >> not yet. >> i would probably fade them -- november 30th is the opec meeting. i would start selling them into that but not today. i actually bought today. >> so you think the move in oil is primarily because of opec, not because of this idea that growth is going to be unleashed in the u.s. economy? >> no, i do not think so. >> do you think the deal falls apart before then, if it were to fall apart? >> um -- >> how do you think it plays out? >> i don't think -- so the way i'm trading it is it doesn't
matter if it does or not, because i will likely be out of it. it came back today. so ausaudi arabia is now saying hey, we really want to push for a production cut. >> we just got back online. it doesn't matter. they will not cut production. there is going to be no production. you're going to hear production cut. and people right leg good to rush into oil and get their faces ripped off. >> can i throw this little thing out into this conversation while we're sort of thinking that maybe it's not -- not because of global growth. we saw the dollar move higher today and oil move higher and airlines rally also. transports at a 19-month high. put all those things together. doesn't that convince you more that this whole move of all those sectors that i mentioned is because of global growth? >> no. >> no. still no. >> it's u.s. growth. u.s. growth. >> u.s. growth -- >> yeah. expectation of global growth. >> if you're looking for -- by the way, trying to thread the needle, it's not necessarily
exxon. conoco. chevron, exxon, conoco. conoco, today, dramatically outperformed the other two. and why? it's because they have also still got a strong dividend. they did cut it. but you take a look at something like a conoco, one of those names that moves fast to the ups and down side. you've got to know what you've got when you've god it. >> some of these have giant dividends. >> conoco less than the approximate% area and then you start looking at the exxons and so forth, a little bit stronger dividend. >> bp is 7%. >> yeah, some 5, 6 and 7 percenters out there. >> there is a tiny bit of fear of whether or not that would be sustainable. but i think it will be, definitely. >> all right. with the trump rally raging on, our next guest has the best ways investors could profit. julian emmanuel, executive director at ubs. julian, good to have you with us. >> great to be here. >> you like health care. >> we do like health care. >> you like it even more, i would -- >> we like it even more. the reality is, we've already
heard some of the rhetoric get rolled back over the last few days. but coming into the election. the prior years' noise caused health care to be trading a 25-year relative discount to the s&p 500, never before seen. and essentially, to us, you priced in regulation that may or may not occur. and you haven't priced at all the potential for repatriation, which benefits the health care sector. >> so the regulation that may or may not occur is the repeal of obamacare, and now the move to -- amend obamacare? >> well, that's part of it. >> or is the drug pricing? >> actually both. that's why we've seen the rotation within the sector the last few days, as people step back and say, hey, the name is beaten up in general, look very appealing. and there are elements of health care that besides having the cash, shhas very good dividend yield as well, which continues to be a theme regardless of interest rates moving up. >> what about m & a and versions
where, you know, very much out of favor. would that potentially change? >> well, the likelihood of offshore m & a, i think, has diminished. simply because there's an expectation that you're going to have repatriation, whether it comes with regulation that's a little more encumbering in general or not. and i think in this climate, there's going to be a tendency to want to stick close to home, which is why we see the market in u.s. growth. >> you've come on this show a number of times, and i feel the last time you came here, you had the same three sectors that you like currently. as before the election. is that correct? >> we did. >> health care, technology and financials. so in our discussion, we were talking about energy stocks. why don't you like energy? has the world -- has the environment for energy changed at all? in a trump world? if we are to believe that trump
is going to spur growth in the united states? >> well, from someone who used to trade commodities, as a portfolio manager a number of years ago, oil is a range trade right now. you want to buy these stocks when oil is trading in the low 40s. and you want to sell them when oil goes to the low 50s. what we saw over the last several years in terms of the imbalance and price crash, tends to take a number of years to work off. and as we said, the international situation isn't robust enough to justify secularly higher oil prices. >> as for technology, what were you making of the decline we saw in technology? we know it's a pretty steady losing streak when you look at the fang stocks every day from the election on until today. were you calling on people -- banging the table, saying this the opportunity for you? >> we are. if you look at it, technology has the earnings, it has the offshore cash, which, again, in the options world, is a free
call option for upside. it's a very relatively well-priced sector. and, you know, it has had a tendency to lead in late stanls of buckets, which we believe we're in, and that selloff was reallocating money into industrials, into financials, which, of course, we like, as well. but technology can go it alone. it doesn't necessarily need a massive infrastructure bill to work. though we do think that's a potential tailwind, as well. >> julian, we'll leave it there. thank you for coming by. pete, i feel you wanted it giddyup julian. talking about all of the stocks -- >> free option of -- everything. i like what he had to say. but i think when you're really looking at the financials, and that's one of his three, top three, i hadn't -- tend to agree with him. they had a huge run. i understand that. but when i continue to see some monstrous moves in the option space, like we see in the xlf today, going out to april, buying time and up side in huge
numbers. the april 23s and the xlf, the financial etf, they bought 340,000 calls today. >> were you? >> i was already in, i added to it, i like that sector, i was in the some of the banks, took some off. but i continue to see this. it makes me want to be in a little bit bigger. i continue to hold my bank of america. i hope -- i know you're probably still in there, as well. that's been a great run. i'm holding on to one bank. >> what do you think the ac could go up to? >> i originally said 18 before the end of the year and i was laughed at on this desk. i got looked at by everybody like i had three heads. well -- >> no, i like it. >> you know what, that's not really right. but in any case, i think we pierced through 20. i see the 23s trading. i could see 22 before the end of the year. >> what were you doing today? >> really didn't do much today. i did sell some bank of america calls, upsade calls. i feel like we're -- >> premium, finally, too. >> so -- and then i was happy to see hopefully the opportunity
ending in google, which thankfully had a nice day. you know what didn't trade well was facebook. you know, it was up 2%. that's nice, but given the run it's had down, that was a pretty anemic rally. >> are you concerned about facebook? >> not after one day. but i would like to have seen more. >> yeah. >> for me, the energy sector. clr i mentioned at the top of the top of the show. i bought that. i don't think oil is going on a massive run. but for right now, going into the opec meeting, i think that you have a trade here in clr. >> i want to buy facebook, amazon, google. but i can't buy it just on today's momentum. it has to carry through to tomorrow. coming up, the group of penny stocks surging since the election on hopes of global growth. we'll give the names and tell you if the traders are catching them. and julia boorstin will be here with the very latest. and pete najarian has one stock that he thinks is about to take off.
but do the other traders agree? he'll tell us what has him pounding the table, later on this hour. stay tuned. what powers the digital world? communication. like centurylink's broadband network that gives 35,000 fans a cutting edge game experience. or the network that keeps a leading hotel chain's guests connected at work, and at play. or the it platform that powers millions of ecards every day for one of the largest greeting card companies. businesses count on communication, and communication counts on centurylink. what's going on here? i'm val, the orange money retirement squirrel from voya. we're putting away acorns. you know, to show the importance of saving for the future. so you're sort of like a spokes person? more of a spokes metaphor. get organized at voya.com.
l.a. for details. julia. >> hey, melissa. snapchat parent, snap inc, filing for an ipo. snap, inc, filed before the election and the company plans to go forward with an ipo as early as march. which could value the company between 20 and $25 billion. this, according to a source close to the situation. now as of snapchat's last round of funding in may, it was valued at around $20 billion. and in september, the company announced its name change from snapchat to snap, inc, and announced spectacles which went on sale just last week. perhaps more important for the bottom line, in june, snapchat announced a big expansion of its advertising business, announcing an advertising api. the company will generate, $950 until in revenue from its projected $370 million in revenue this year. snap, inc says they have no comment.
>> thank you very much, julia boorstin. if you like maybe, and if you like google, might you like snapchat or might it interest you? >> probably won't is my guess. a very expensive from the start. but it could maybe do some. you could make a case for it being positive for facebooks of the world for instagram or negative in that would draw money away. >> i feel like you have a contrarian take on snap, inc going public. like it's going to mark the top or -- i don't know, something like that. >> >> no, no, no. i wouldn't say anything -- >> look at that. look at the service snapchat provides. >> $20 billion right there. i mean -- come on, i'll draw a cat face on for $10 billion, write me a check. what i would say is that this might actually be bad for twitter. and the reason why, is you start to see some comparisons that snapchat is growing much faster than twitter. that money could come out of twitter and go into snapchat. >> yeah, but i do believe it has to be the environment for it. we talked about the trump trade.
i don't know if it's really the environment for this stock right now. i think that people -- if you're -- tech has to get a little more -- longer in the tooth off this rally, as i said before. the one-day wonder. when you look at valuation, this might be better for karen, because i think valuation is going to come in really hard, really quickly. >> you think they're going to go public and they're going to go out at a lower valuation? >> i don't know if the environment -- i don't know if they're really -- you know, drooling over the environment to hit the ipo market right now. as far as what the price -- >> the price in general. >> i think it depends how much they sell, how much stock they sell to the public. sometimes it's better to get it public. >> small flow. >> come back to it later. and it's march. i mean, we could be -- a lot of things have happened. >> that's true. like a lifetime away. a shipping stock dry ships, meantime, has been on a trump tear this week, up another 70% today. 7-0 percent. that particulars off our top
trade. the company is small, only $83 million market cap. so you ask, why are we talking about it? quite the comeback for this entire group of shippers. check out other names with huge moves, just today. karen. >> yes. >> do you believe these moves? >> well, goaler i own for a while. they did a secondary last night, very easily absorbed. dry ships is a whole other thing. we were talking about some crazy trading, callobios. you have the dry bulk index, which finally crossed 1,000. that was good. unrelated to the election, things have start been improving. but generally you have these very levered companies, right? so they get a little more revenue that falls directly to the bottom line, the way the business model works, goes almost all to the bottom line. very levered. you can see a gigantic improvement in earnings. however, the entire value of the company traded today on -- this
is -- >> wow. >> ridiculous. could it go to 500? >> sure, i could. >> so -- >> they have split multiple times. >> so you're saying don't touch it with a 10-foot pole. >> yes. >> but let's say i'm sitting -- >> i would -- i'm with her. this is nuts. >> but let's say i'm sitting at home and i say 70%. why not put a flier out on some of these stocks, poet. can the options market be my answer? >> it could be your answer to put the flier out there. but with the full understanding that this is a flier. it's a lot of reticket. and is this going to continue? i mean, this move in dry ships is absolutely spectacular. we haven't seen anything like this in -- i can't really remember anything. even the biotech world, i don't remember watching anything in four or five or six trading days. >> and it's an entire sector. >> like they got a positive phase three result. >> i mean, in fairness, the rest of the sector has been reacting. it's -- dry ships is by far
above the rest of the ship. >> is infrastructure -- has to be a part of this, right? so a big part of it. to create the short squeeze. what happens if we start to get some details on the infrastructure. to melissa's point -- >> i'm not saying the sector can't turn. it hasn't turned. >> if you get -- everyone tag about $500 billion. is there another 40% to the up side in some of these names? >> maybe. >> you also -- protectionists we don't see -- >> it sounds like you would take a flier on it. almost making the case. you talked yourself into it. >> i do a lot of dumb things. i have four kids. >> i hope your kids are not watching. >> bought at 40 today. nice job. still ahead. dig in. that's what investors are saying about casual dining stocks, which are surging on hopes of economic growth. we'll give you the names and tell you if any are still worth a buy. i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." currencies gone wild.
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welcome back to "fast money." the trump rally continued today's as the dow posted yet another record high. the nasdaq surged more than 1%. the s&p 500 closed a half% from its high and crude oil up nearly 6%. here's what's coming up. big box retailers, target and walmart out with earnings, and traders expecting huge moves for these stocks. the only question now, which direction. we have answers. plus, donald trump has been a disaster for currencies like the mexican peso. that's created a tremendous
buying opportunity for one group of stocks. we'll give the names and how to play them. first, the rally in restaurant stocks continuing today as investors find renewed faith in the consumer. breaking down some of the moves, none other than cnbc's resident foodie himself, the one and only dom chu. so i hate to say it, you don't get a body like mine by turning downed foo. let's take you through the restaurant stock sampler platter and the items have been hot. a whole lot of restaurant stocks focused on mid-scale dining have had huge runs since the election. not fast food, but not like going to the capital grill, either. speaking of the capital grill, the parent company, darden restaurants, which also owns the olive garden, longhorn ste steakhou steakhouse, up 11% since the election. along the same vein, chili's and imaginian imaginianos, up 11%. and if you're in the mood for chicken fried steak, check out cracker barrel, with a 14% gain
in that time. denny's, buffalo wild wings, cheesecake factory and get the picture. some are attributed it to the election resolution, removing uncertainty, which helps consumer sentiment. others attribute to falling oil prices which helps consumers find relief at the gas pump and line pockets with extra dollars on dining out, although we did see gas prices and oil prices move higher today. others saying it's possibly wage pressures. could they be eased a bit under certain hypothetical scenarios in the administration? it's a lot of mix of things. but melissa, the bottom line here, if we do get better sentiment heading into the holiday season, it may help consumer-related stocks. with as far and fast as the stocks have gone up, the industry may be due for a breather between courses. >> thank you, dom chu. karen, what do you think of the moves we have seen so far? >> very, very similar to what we talked about yesterday in the retail space. i think you have a sector just overdone to the down side.
i do believe there was something to the consumer being cautious. and not wanting to -- one example, the election over with, regardless of the outcome. and you have low food prices, so that is good. and you have low gas prices. you have people employed. all of those setting up for a very good valuation. i think of the whole sector. ask then this rotation in -- out of expensive things, into relatively cheap things. >> and it makes sense if you think the obamacare -- those costs are probably going to be limited going forward for a lot of these business owners. for a lot of the segment. and also donald trump was not thought to be a minimum wage bull. i don't think there's going to be a lot on his agenda to raise the minimum wage. and that was a huge headwind to this whole space, this whole sector. >> melissa -- i just got a question here. we've been talking about this mid scale thing, guys. i am -- i'm here. i'm curious what the desk says -- we have been talking
about mid scale. that sweet spot. but what about the fast food ones? what about the mcdonald's or yum brands, that sort of thing? do we see that same traction, guys, because of that trade, or is this -- limited basically to the apple, these types of stocks of the world? >> i've got pete for that one? >> the fast food space, especially in the pizza area. holy smokes, did anybody see papa john's. everybody talks about domino's, and -- steve does? >> domino's. >> very nice. papa john's, look at the numbers. incredible. the growth they have been able to put up. if you look through yum, the one interesting thing i see, the focus from the company is not just taco bell and kfc going forward, but it's pizza hut. and that's an area where they know they can get some -- >> you love pizza hut. >> but the problem is, their growth opportunities are outside the u.s. so in this environment, they'll likely under -- >> talk about some of the growth outside of the u.s., but also within the u.s. and talking about the expansion of all three. >> if i'm going out -- if i'm trying to figure out what i want
to buy, i want to buy u.s. restaurants that are basically -- have -- >> that's darden. or cracker barrel. >> comp. sales have been great for domino's, great for papa john's. so they have a high benchmark to meet going forward. so as great as these stocks have been, the hurdle is getting higher and higher for the ones that have been successful. >> bk, to your point about restaurants exposed here, how about a yum c, the china operations of yum. >> right. well, i wouldn't want to own that. >> you wouldn't want to own it. >> no. >> but there is growth in china. and if the -- they're there. >> let's look at what's going on in china. if we have a trade war, it's not necessarily going to be great for the chinese economy. you're soog the chinese you want weaken quite a bit to the levels we haven't seen since the 2008 crisis. something else is going on there, as well. it's not a place i would be very excited about. >> some sort of a turn going on? keith meister said you want to be in both, yum and yum c.
the reasoning, he thinks in china, it's going to be extremely volatile, but the possibilities there to grow and the expansion possibilities are absolutely -- he almost used the word "unlimited." i don't think he meant to use that, but he said unlimited. >> maybe he's right. >> the instrument, though. a company with american roots, american structure. >> and they have been there. >> and -- is that a positive in china? seems to me every company that goes to china, that's a u.s. company, ends up leaving and -- >> don't do that well. >> discounted already. >> a ton of money there. >> starbucks, mcdonald's. they're not exiting. they're growing in china. >> nike and starbucks and go through -- >> i would rather in this environment, have stocks and companies that have a u.s. focus. >> sticking with the consumer. target and walmart reporting earnings this week and the options market expecting some big moves from these stocks. mike coe joins us with the details. mike. >> yes. so we have seen quite a lot of options activity in both of these names today. target, which normally moves
about 2.9%, the day after earnings, is implying a move of about 5% by the end of the week. walmart, which is usually somewhat more muted, normally moving about 2.6%, implying a move of 3.25%. these are not names well-favored by the street, but options markets basically implying there might be some up side. one of the larger trades we saw today, somebody rolling a large bullet. november 71 calls out to the january 72.5 calls in walmart, paying just under $1.10 for those. bets walmart is above by january expectations. we saw bullish bets in target, as well with put-selling out in april. >> thank you, mike coe from austin. for more "options action"s, 5:30 p.m. friday. grasso? >> i have a problem with walmart, benefitting from the sell pressure on amazon. if you believe amazon is moving higher, walmart will come in. i would rather be a buyer of
target. it's only flat on year. >> expanding within the big box universe, home depot. >> the earnings look good. >> good quarter. but traded down and this after a down day yesterday. >> yeah. >> what's going on? >> i was surprised by that. i think when you look through the numbers, i thought the numbers were great. was it in front of itself? i think it was. but i don'ten that it was going into the earnings number that it was so far in front of. it had already come down. the fact it's getting down here, when we talk about where are the opportunities in the marketplace. i look at the earnings. i look at that name. i think there is an opportunity. >> it's comps. remember weather? weather was perfect. painting, building, everything going on. if you have comps that are really aggressive, that's going to be the head windt. that was a great quarter. >> i wonder if the spike in interest rates -- mortgages have taken a big hike and -- >> of course, the rates on helox. >> and so look at the environment, right? you had a week ago, one
portfolio. and now another portfolio. what do you do? sell out of your home depot, because it's not doing anything in this environment and buy the other things. so, yes, you could have some kind of mortgage. let's take the other side for the same reasons the restaurant stocks are going up, home depot could catch a tailwind too. >> for me, it's a neutral. i wouldn't trade one way or the other. >> i think it's one of those moves where you can pick little things to explain it. but there are an equal number of things on the other side of this trade. >> no doubt about it. and now lows next. so we've got an opportunity to hear one more and see how the environment itself is. still ahead, currencies around the world have gone wild in the last week, res rukting one key area of the market. plus, it's a one mega cap tech stock that our very own pete najarian says is a screaming buy. he'll tell us what has him so excited when "fast money" returns. i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices.
steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. td ameritrade.
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the mexican peso dropped 10%, but rallied modestly this week. the big interest is what's going on with the trading firms right now. so trading is back. it's a big beneficiary of the trump win. many brokerage firms, stock exchanges, asset managers up double digits in the weeks since the election. volumes nearly twice normal since the election. after years of low volume, retail accounts fleeing, the trading community is suddenly excited again. three reasons why we're rallying. a brought stock market rally that helps the brokerage in general. these firms go up more. second, when volumes go up, they benefit because they charge for trades. so they get an earnings boost. and third, higher rates are also a benefit. so brokerages like td ameritrade and swaub own banks that take the cash and invest it along the yield curve. more profits. asset managers, like leg mason are also up for similar reasons, but an additional factor. hopes that the much-hated fiduciary area standard rule
will be repealed. that would require fiduciaries to put interest ahead of their own. everyone agrees that's a good idea but opens the door for the potential of large numbers of what may or may not be frivolous lawsuits. so what about the trading industry? what really is good for it is the average americans will buy more stocks. that's the hope out there. we all know that the number of households that own stocks has declined. which means stock ownership has become even more concentrated. essentially the top 10 percent of households own the majority of stocks. so the investment community would really like to change that. wouldn't that be something, guys, if we actually expanded the number of people who actually own stocks. that's the big goal here. guys, back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you. bob pisani. one area of the market seeing the biggest spike is currencies. glen stevens, an online currency broker, joins us from london. great to have you on the show. bob was talking about the
enthusiasm for trading amongst the retail traders out there. are you seeing the same in the currency markets? have you seen volumes pick up, accounts being opened? >> absolutely, i think bob touched on it. it's probably that times five in the respect these are the markets and environments that currency traders live for. and frankly, the investors look at this as a very pure play. we're sometimes tough to ascertain which stocks should you be in with the trump effect. currencies a heck of a lot easier sometimes if you make an opinion about the mexican peso, make an opinion about emerging markets, make an opinion about the dollar. and you can really watch this overlay track as the -- you know, percentages move and when we watch the election unfold, you could absolutely watch lockstep the peso trade. and so it's really, really interesting markets right now. >> have you seen interest in the peso? i mean, i -- i'm getting you haven't seen volumes like this in a very long time, trading the mexican peso, specifically. >> we haven't seen volumes like
this, in five years, a decade. and it's really cool to watch the relationships unfold, because there are certain nuances about certain markets, even the way, for example, the tushish trades to say, should that be classified as an emerging market or european market because president-elect trump has a different opinion on either and so how will that trade. the peso is a perfect example as the currency goes. as -- even as bob referenced, we saw a tremendous selloff. part of that is capitulation to maybe a perceived softening in some of trump's stances lately. so you see this direct correlation between the guest opinion of next steps. >> and obviously, volatility is good for you. but in some ways, it could be bad, and we witnessed because of giant swings in the currency markets, unexpected large swings, a competitor of yours, fxcm, come under duress and basically go out of business. are investors in this area of
the market safer today than before, even with this wild volatility that we have seen after the elections? >> you know, ultimately, an event like that put everybody on notice. so u.s. regularities and european and uk regulators all worked together since that event in '15 and essentially worked with providers such as ourselves to look at some of the rules, look at some of the guidelines and create a much safer environment. so to be fair, thanks to technology and thanks to some policy changes, events like that unlikely to happen again, even when you have these kind of moves in volatility, it creates opportunity. and ultimately, the customer is safer, because of a lot more transparency in the market than before. >> glen, thank you for joining us. appreciate it. >> happy to be here. >> glen stevens, gain capital and for ex.com. you have been in e-trade for a long time. beneficiary. >> and our former firm and the rest of that. really interesting to see these volumes, and that was the first topic bob pisani brought up. we traded $16 million
year-to-date per average in the options world. in the last four or five trading sessions, closer to $26 million. so volume up about $10 million per day average. that's pretty huge. i think the e-trades ask some of the asset managers, they still have some up side. we saw something like franklin resources today, as well, where it's sitting there, you look at valuations and the yield you're able to get. some of these names i still think have some up side, even after the moves they have already had. >> yeah. what have you noticed in terms of volumes, and do you think -- i mean, this is a time when the dow hits record highs, it makes head lines, right? it's a mainstream media, front page news, dow hits all-time high. doesn't that bring in the retail investor? >> talking on the street about what they should buy. it means it's a little bit topee and people maybe are overexhausted with the market. but coming out of the election, it was unbelievable volume. when i was on the floor, when that opening bell rang, it was an onslaught of volume that i haven't seen since the financial crisis. >> wow.
>> those types of levels, where it was an urgesy, and frantic movement to buy stocks -- stocks and grab whatever you could. i don't know how long that can last. >> right. the same time, you've got to wonder about the active managers, which -- who have not had a track record in terms of eating their benchmarks. you open up your statement and your portfolio will go higher, too. but have these active managers been able to be on the right side of the trader, where they too, for instance, technology which didn't see the same gains. >> absolutely. you had a tremendous reversal of what worked, what was working, and what wasn't working. and it happened overnight. so if you weren't able to trade futures or currencies or stuff like that, you may have missed it. but the volatilities out there unbelievab unbelievably. the one place i would look in this, if you can't trade currencies, yourself, look at cme group. it's ripped, but they trade all of the currencies, all the futures, the epicenter of what's going on. these guys will benefit. >> and i'm sure a lot of people still in bond funds.
>> yes. not a great place to be. >> not a great place to be. >> the e trades -- they have some bank-like characteristics. the interest rate moves should be a big -- big benefit to them, aside from all of the other things that are going right for them. >> coming up, the one tech stock that has our very own pete najarian pounding the table. but can he convince the other traders to buy in? you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. first in business worldwide. what's the value of capital? what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
welcome back to "fast money." every now and then, we get our traders to pitch a stock that they think is worth the buy. pete is picking one of the tech giants behind today's nasdaq bounce. so pete, give us your pitch. >> i'm giving the pitch and it's going to be microsoft. this is a really interesting company, and it's one of those companies we talk about all of the time about transition. and when you're talking about transition, this is the newer ceo, nadella. and these are some of the points why i like microsoft still. coming off the $60-plus level. but started to sell off a little bit. didn't sell off a lot in the trump election selloff in tech. when you look at some of the reasons why i like this company, you'll understand why i think it has growth still to come. it was an overreaction, in my opinion, to the whole trump win. they started selling everything
tech. this stock went down, as well. when you look at the cloud revenue, look at the acceleration you're seeing there, along with some of the margin expansion you're seeing, as well. those, i think, are the combination of that, which is the goal of microsoft. satya nadella put that out as they're goal. we're getting into the cloud, not only getting into the cloud, but making a huge aspect of the microsoft world. and then look at the fundamentals of the company. $130-plus billion. incredible yield and the share repurchase. when you combine all of that with the growth, i think right now this is a great buy in the 58 area. as a matter of fact, i'll give you something. i bought some today. i'm selling some calls against it. i'm going to stay in this stock as long as i can. i think this stock is going to end up going, if you look at this chart, you see this big move. whoops, excuse me. let me get to the pen. you see this move it's already made up towards here? i don't think that's where it stops. i think this thing is going to
keep on going and probably get somewhere closer to 65 or 70 before it needs to stop. all right. what have you got? >> literally pete went off the charts on that one. any questions for pete? grasso. >> a major aspect is the cloud growth. so they did, i guess, intelligent cloud is the way they list it. it's $25 billion business. now, when people get excited about adventuring into a new line of business, they really start to grow an extreme rates, but they're already at $25 billion, which is nothing to sneeze out of, or whatever the saying is. can they grow this at a certain -- at an exponential force to get people to stop thinking this is a rusty old company, and this is a new cloud company? >> well, i honestly think they're already at that point, steve, where they're starting to get there. i think, actually, by the way -- i don't know the growth is going to continue to be able to grow at some unbelievable level. but i think when you look at where their growth is, and where they're moving from, this is not the old company that everybody was looking at.
and so because of that, when you look at services and data and you look at everything they're focused on right now, but the specifically in the cloud, the growth they're getting right now is going to be enough to propel them to the next level. >> pete, i'm curious about the way you set up the trade. so you bought it and sold the call. is that just for a yield? because it seems in this environment, that a name like microsoft, some international revenue exposure, might get hurt by a stronger dollar. that it's not going to be the -- the first pick of hedge fund managers out there. so is this just kind of a yield play for you, or you really think that there's going to be this big up side? >> i think there's up side. i think it could be very big up side. but i think when i'm talking about up side, i don't think this is a double. i don't think this is a stock that is going to be trading 85 any time soon. but i think over the next 12 months, we could see a 68 handle on this. up about $10, not a bad move. i think percentage-wise, that's pretty strong. but if i can sell calls against that, collect the yield, when i look at the fundamentals of the company, and i look at an 18 times next year, i think this stock has plenty of room to the
up side still, especially if they can continue any kind of growth in the areas that their initiatives are putting out for. >> do we buy or sell pete's pitch, pens to boards. karen? what do you say? >> i would buy. a very compelling pitch. i would buy. very compelling pitch. my only hesitation is not having bought it at 33. which is a really dumb reason. >> right. if you think it's going to go higher from here, it does not matter. >> but that doesn't matter. you said that a million times, too. >> yeah. >> bk. >> it's a buy for me. >> wow. >> yeah! >> two buys. >> but that's why i asked you the question, right? because the reason why you buy it is not because it's going to be a double. that's the other part of your portfolio. this is your stable area, you get a nice yield and do well in this. >> grasso. >> if you believe people are going to find growth in other areas, which we have seen with president-elect trump, i think you've got to say sell to this.
there's other areas that -- there's other areas where you can get growth from. but if you look at the bottom, sell low. >> hearts, in fact. >> i appreciate that, steve. i understand what steve is talking about, as well. but i think the buy side of it is that's why i'm in the stock right now. not the options. i don't think this thing is going to fly to the up side. >> thanks for that pitch, pete. coming up, bk finds a commodity that he says could move higher. find out what that is when we come right back. when it comes to healthcare, seconds can mean the difference between life and death. for partners in health, time is life. we have 18,000 people around the world. the microsoft cloud helps our entire staff stay connected and work together in real time to help those that need it. the ability to collaborate changes how we work. what we do together changes how we live.
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welcome back to "fast money." "people" magazine naming the rock as this year's sexiest man alive at 6'5 inch inch, 245 pounds. in close second, brian kelly, slightly under 245. fun fact. in college, known as "the rock." nice, bk. >> more like the marshmallow. >> "final trade" time. pete. >> the airlines have taken off, and hawaiian airlines still the best name in the business. that's going higher. >> karen. >> dry shims. if you don't know who the patsy is, you do not buy dry ships. it's crazy. >> bk. >> you buy gold here. higher oil means higher
inflation. gold is your hedge. >> grasso? >> amazon. wait for a couple days more momentum. buy it. >> i'm melissa lee. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to creigh mere ka. let's try to make you money. my job is to educate and teach you, call me. or tweet me gently @jim cramer. can someone get me michael phelps please? we need him right here right now. we need him to navigate the cross currents just to get to the other side of the pool. we've gotten some u