tv Squawk Box CNBC November 23, 2016 6:00am-9:01am EST
live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." good morning, welcome to "squawk box," i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. our top story, the markets. the news is this, the dow posting all-time intraday and closing highs, crossing above the 19,000 mark for the first time in its history. if you look at the right-hand side of the chart, finally a breakout move after a full year of almost doing nothing for the major avenrage. the s&p 500 ticking above the 2200 mark for the first time ever. you can see that breakout move. it was a quadruple all-time high, right? >> first time you had all four major averages open at record highs since '99. >> nasdaq and the russell 2,000
inned a dust addition to the r s&p 500. >> brings back memory of '99. all four hit record highs since '99. took 483 days to go from dow 18,000 to dow 19,000. back in '99 it took 24 days to go 1,000 points. >> i remember those days. crazy back then. >> yeah. >> we're watching oil prices this morning. doubts today about whether opec will agree to a production cut at a meeting next week. reuters reports that a gathering of opec experts decided to recommend the cartel to debate cutting the output. a look at crude oil today, wti up a fraction. brent just about the same level. rbob gas down. >> the yield on the two-year
treasury note hitting the highest level since april of 2010 yesterday. what is also a big story for the market, even though interest rates have been rising across the board stocks have been able to rise as well. there's been a dramatic shift there. historically rising interest rates bad for the u.s. stock market, means multiples in theory compress, but just a lot of jubilance about what could be happening with the economy. 30-year no really startling. >> look at the dollar as well this morning. there you go. the euro, 1.06. the dollar yen at 1.11. the pound at 1.23 versus the dollar. >> dollar almost close to a record high yesterday. gold at this hour, higher by 70 cents.
1,211. global stocks, show you what's going on there. japan closed for a public holiday. the rest of asia was open. showing you u.s. futures again because we can. s&p would be flat, dow open by four. nasdaq slightly lower. there's europe. european markets are mixed to flat. italy lower by a little more than 1%. greece, european yields, look at that. 6.9%. greece approaching 7% for the ten-year yield. interest rates have been rising across europe. that will get people nervous because they have so much debt. >> to today's economic agenda, a packed calendar ahead of the thanksgiving holiday. weekly jobless claims and october durable goods are out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time, followed by october new home sales and november consumer sentiment at 10:00. this afternoon the meetings from
the fed meeting will be released. hewlett-packard enterprises reporting better than expected fourth quarter profit, but revenue fell 7% hurt by weak demand for storage and networking equipment. hp ceo meg whitman will be on "squawk on the street" at 9:00 al eastern. hp inc., the print and pc business of the former hewlett-packard, posting fourth quarter profit that was in line with estimates. revenue from the printer division fell 8% on continued weak demand and the first quarter profit guidance is below analyst forecasts. that stock is lower by a little more than 2% in premarket trade. and gamestop's third quarter results beating forecast. the retailer issued a holiday sales outlook that disappointed analysts. the chain expects revenue from video games to decline in double
g digits this month. president-elect trump will spend thanksgiving in florida. ahead of the holiday we're hearing more about his cabinet picks. eamon javers have the hatest. >> reporter: donald trump left trump tower yesterday about 4:00. he headed to florida where he will spend the thanksgiving holiday with his family. we're waiting this morning on any cabinet announcements. we didn't get them yesterday. we thought we might. donald trump said they are very close to making a couple of new announcements. we have this wild media moment yesterday when donald trump left trump tower, went over to the "new york times," gave an interview to the editors and reporters there. those reporters were live tweeting that interview while it was happening. we got a couple bullet points. new items from trump in terms of his thinking. he backed off of the idea of waterboarding. said he talked to general mattis about the issue, general mattis said it doesn't work.
is he re-evaluating that position. he said the "new york times" will be happy with his stance on the first amendment. he said that he disavows the so-called alt-right after an event here in washington in recent days which featured nazi salutes, and said finally he has no legal obligation to separate his business empire saying this is simply the role of the president to move forward as best he can for the country and all those issue also have to sort themselves out. you get the sense we're seeing something different than what we're used to in american history here. traditionally when we cover political campaigns, we cover a candidate who runs to the right or left to win his or her political party and tacks back to the center ahead of the jenlt general election from the center. that's where american presidentials have been won. what we're seeing here is something different. a candidate who is now tacking
to the center after the general election. running in the general election by mobilizing the base, getting turnouts, and now tacking back to the center when you look at the positions he espoused sense election day, particularly keeping some portions of obama care, he didn't mention building the wall in his video about his first 100-day agenda, waterboarding, and now says he has ang open mind on climate change. it seems like we're watching a candidate tacking back towards the center from where he was in the campaign. >> already senator lindsey graham criticizing donald trump for not going forward with the prosecution of hillary clinton, saying there should be some investigation. what about the issue of conflict of interest. donald trump in that interview with the "new york times" saying that there's nothing that
prohibits him -- the president and the vice president are excluded when it comes to the issue of whether or not there can be conflicts of interest, but others argue when you look at some laws out there, they could be subject to them. >> i talked to legal experts on this. it's not entirely clear. we are in unchattered territory here. the sense i get back, the initial read -- i won't say this is definitive, is that the president is relatively free to run his businesses if he so chooses. you have to go back to some of the founding fathers who had active businesses while serving in the white house. this is something we have not seen in our adult lifetimes. donald trump is going to have to navigate this thicket. seems like if he decided to keep those business operations up and running he would be able to do that. but the question is does he want to? yes, that business is deeply important to him personally and
enriched him to no end, but every decision he makes as president of the united states will be viewed through a filter of is this a decision done to enrich donald trump or done on the merits? particularly if he's to sign new contracts for new properties overseas, there's questions about whether those contracts are legitimate or if this is a form for pay to play. for donald trump who raised all those questions about the clinton foundation, that's fraught political territory. >> thank you very much. back to the markets. the dow breaking new ground, topping 19,000. the s&p 500, nasdaq and russell 2000 also in new record territory. this is the 13th positive straight session for the russell 2000. are markets and the economy in good enough shape to sustain this trump rally or should we start taking profits? guys, good to have you here.
simeon what can you make of this rally? can it keep going? >> you many shen uned earlier in the show that rising interest rates have been a headwind for the equity markets. when interest rates rise from such low levels, that's gently not true. in other words, from such low levels when we see interest rates rise, the economy is getting better. so, stocks could farewell for a little bit longer, particularly because we appear to have come to the end of this earnings recession. >> rates are going up for the right reason? >> rates are going up for the right reason and we saw positive earnings growth in the third quarter. >> chris, should we be concerned about where rates are going? 230 an change on the ten-year? >> i hope no. the game changer with waking up to president-elect trump is that fed chair janet yellen is out at the end of january of 2018. we didn't know that. i think that means interest rate
also retu rates will return more quickly to normal, strengthening the dollar, pushing up bond yields. yeah, things look good here. >> you say that a truch victo t keeps you up at night, not so sure about not putting a politician in there, but -- >> not sure that should have made air. >> a lot of people thought that way. >> yeah, give me the tax cut. the interesting thing about this, trump is inheriting the strongest economy in over 30 years. clinton, no, a jobless recovery. dubya, george bush, we went into recession two months after he got into office. this economy is strong. next friday you'll see a very strong jobs report.
he's in the sweet spot now. >> do you give -- so the markets are acting like the economy will get better. do either one of you add to your gdp forecasts because of a trump victory and the potential for tax cuts or less regulation? >> the opportunity for fiscal stimulus is there. people have been clamoring it for a long time. that would be a plus. we knows there some things out there, concerns over trade policy. certainly a bit of deficit spending in this environment is not a bad idea. wlafrnl >> what if you're not in the market or haven't participated, is it too late to put prefresh money to work? >> the notion that equities can do the work is there. but the concern is chasing the hot sectors. making the big bets on the biotechs and even financials that have run very far very quickly. better play may be to stay with a lower volatility growth,
dividend growers, if system of these policy things come out on the wrong side of the bets that came out of the election, you still have some reasonably more stable bets in the equity market. >> seeing a good amount of rotation into sectors like the banks. then also fresh money coming into the market that helped some of these growth technology names. the f.a.n.g.s and others like that which recover from post election woes. does more money come in from the sideline? >> i think it does. you have to be kacareful about looking at sectors and capitalization. in large caps we've seen a rotation away from things like utilities as rates start to rise. in mid and small cap stocks utilities have done fine. >> where do you think the ten-year yield goes? >> i put it at 2.7%. i've always been aggressive.
i had four rate hikes next year, 2017. 2.7% by the end of next year. >> can stocks hold on in the face of that? >> i hope so. didn't we get over the taper for the longest time stocks wouldn't go up due to the taper? i think we'll get over -- >> and the rising dollar? >> i think the dollar is adjusting itself really just based on the speed of rate hikes. i don't think the dollar are continue to go up on the relative interest rate differential story for now. >> good to see you. >> coming up, new questions about an opec-led production cut. we'll talk about the market implications when we come back. before we go to break a look at this date in history. generosity is its own form of power.
can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. welcome back to "squawk box," today's top story, every major average yesterday hitting a new high. the s&p would open plat this morning, the dow jones higher. nasdaq flat. finals hitting their highest level since 2000 yesterday. >> twitter ceo jack dorsey was suspended from the social network. his page was taken offline by
accident following what dorsey called an internal mistake. dorsey made light of the situation tweeting just setting up my twitter -- again. users can deactivate accounts on twitter but only the company can suspend its accounts. >> i feel like this company can't get out of its own way. there's all kinds of issues. >> hopefully for dorsey this is not a sign of anything. >> yes. >> as he's urged to pick between square and twitter. apple may be bringing back what looks like an old flip phone. the company has granted a patent yesterday for a device with a foldable, flexible screen. apple's applications features a touchscreen smartphone with a design made popular by clamshell phones that open and close like a notebook. the idea could lead to a bendable iphone similar to an old school flip phone. it's unknown if apple has this design actually in the works.
opec will hold a critical meet being production levels next week. ahead of that gathering, jackie deangelis has the results of an exclusive cnbc oil survey. if you have been watching prices you have seen the volatility over the last few weeks. this is about what will opec do or not do on november 30th. feels like groundhog day. analysts, traders and major energy funds were polled to get their latest views on what they're expecting. more than 70% think there will be a deal. half said they don't think it's what wias previously announced, so maybe we see a freeze or a bigger cut. at this point it's unclear. more than half said they think at this point more than 750,000 barrels, it won't be enough. they're looking for something along the lines of a million. that would have a significant
impact not just on supply but also on pricing. half said when it comes to what is moving wti, supply is the key issue, even more important than demand and geopolitical events, because the concern is not just what is being pumped overseas but in the united states as well. more than 60% said they were optimistic that the supply/demand rebalance we talked about all year was happening but slower than expected. on pricing opinions were split. more than half said they think we could see the end of the year price be between $50 and $59. some saying between $40 and $49. so we're heading into the holiday tomorrow. probably light on volume on friday. monday this comes back into focus. we've seen opec do this so many times before. lead the market down one path to pivot and go another way. what's happening now is so important. the markets hitting new record
highs. oil is part of that story. this they don't give us the deal we were expecting and prices go down, that could take equities down. >> let me ask you about iran and iraq. do we know if they can produce yet what they think -- what everybody hopes they can? the vernacular around them is so weird. iraq is such a mess. they've never been able to meet targets for more than a decade now. >> that's one reason why they don't want to participate in the deal. once they're pumping, comfortable, they don't want to be involved in this. the onus is on saudi arabia. they will take the brunt of the cut. even if they announce the freeze or cut next week, nobody is expecting the iranians and iraqis to play ball. they will say they will and then not necessarily cooperate. >> we have a guest coming up who will argue along those lines, that it's saudi arabia, you could wait, uae and qatar that
hold production cuts to the point you're making. >> the saudis have a lot of incentive to make this cut and keep prices at 50. we talked about the bond offering, that went off without a hitch. they're looking to do an aramco ipo next year. you can't have low oil prices and expect investors to pour into that. >> thank you. >> thank you. >> joining us is jack broussard. do you agree, if there's going to be a cut it will be saudi arabia and they'll have to bear the brunt of it? what's the likelihood of that? >> i agree. i think there will be a cut, saudi arabia wants it to happen. as your prior guest was saying, they somethi they signaled they want more cash, and we have the aramco
thing coming up in the near future. the big problem is inventories. this cut will not cut inventories. >> how soon before we can burn those off? >> the way i see this playing out, we will need a second cut. so come springtime we'll start looking at all the production numbers from the countries you're talking about, iran, iraq, libya, nigeria, even the united states. once we see those production cuts, saudi arabia will decide is it worth it to go through another production cut? the worst case scenario for them is they take production off the market, somebody else puts it on the market, oil prices don't go anywhere. >> what level of cut is the market pricing in now, if any? >> i think it's pricing in a cut of 33 million barrels a day. the last data point was 33.8. that's where you get to balance the market in the first half of
the year. that's what is priced in. >> you don't think if they agree to a cut oil is -- wti at 4 and change that it doesn't give oil a boost across the board? >> maybe in the short-term but they do not have a great track record of adhering to production cuts. history shows they produce about 5% more than they're going to. i think that's what people want to see, some hard numbers. is this actually happening? >> you sent over some notes, gasoline is 73% of global oil demand right now. the highest level in 20 years. why is that significant? >> sure. if you look at global demand growth, we are seeing a big push in gasoline. the 20-year average is about 25%. so we're really putting all our eggs in one basket. retail prices rise, efficiency gains, you could see a chipping down of demand. if there's less demand, there could be less supply.
>> that could hurt prices. >> you got it. >> and production within opec last month went up to 33.78 million barrels. when they announced the 750,000 barrel cut in september, they were at 32 and change. effectively, do you really have a cut if you upped production and are basically equalizing things? >> opec math -- >> always. >> he is mentioning we need a second cut, we can't even get the first cut. >> i also don't know, to the noint you made, about what equities could do if out goes lower or stays where it is. i think it's different that perhaps i get a decoupling from stocks and oil, just given the prospects of what lies ahead from a trump presidency. >> our survey dug into that. people said that they were not sure what we were going to see from president trump. they're optimistic that it could be positive, but if you allow
all this drilling, you could push prices down. >> rates go up, dollar goes up that could have a negative impact on the price of crude. coming up, the tauop storie. plus the coffee indicator, the ceo of dunkin brands joins us with his take on the american con seemer, first a look at yesterday's 500 winners and losers. ♪
♪ >> welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc. u.s. equity futures following records across the board. a bit of a mixed picture, a bit of a lower picture for the dow. it opened higher by forgave points. the nasdaq and s&p flat after the dow posted all time intraday and closing highs crossing above the 19,000 mark for the first time in its history. the s&p seeing record intraday and closing highs. the index ticking above the 2200 mark for the first time ever. urban outfitters third quarter results missed forecasts and sales remain sluggish at
anthropology. customer traffic dropped. the stock is lower by 11% in premarket trade. glaxosmithkline says its new drug to treat asthma saw positive results. the company is expected to file approve fral sometime next year facebook is upping efforts to enter china the new york sometimes reporting the social network has developed software that censors posts before they appear, in an attempt to comply with china's internet laws. facebook has restricted content in other countries before, like in russia and pakistan by taking content do content down after it is posted, but this new feature would prevent the comments from being on the feeds in the first place. >> would give the partner there
the ability to do that. it's tough for internet companies, how they wrap their head around 1.4 billion people, yet a totalitarian government. >> and it doesn't seem to be likely to change at all. >> nope. nope. >> holidays are upon us, that means big business for companies. consumer companies like dunkin' brands. joining us is nigel travis, ceo of dunkin' brands. how are sales looking for the holiday season? have you seen a change in sales at all in the wake of the election? >> well, as i talked on q3 results, there was concern about the election and the overhang. but based on all the consumer data we see, things are looking a bit brighter. i think a few people are out there thinking about tax cuts, based on what i've been reading. so we feel good. we feel going into the holiday
season. today is national espresso day, the first time we have celebrated it. you can get a medium hot or ice the espresso for 1.99. i know you love it. >> i do. there's nothing our bosses love better than a made-up holiday about food. if i could have -- listen, if i could just have a drip next to the bed, so that way i wouldn't have to get up in the morning to have my coffee that would be great. so you think sales have gone up in the wake of the election? is that what i heard you imply? >> i'm saying -- we don't talk about results in the middle of a quarter, but i think people are feeling better. we feel good about other strategy, feel good about our beverage sales. and that's really what i was implying. >> when you mentioned franchisees had concerns about the election, was that sales or -- we're having a fire alarm
going off. you and i talked about immigration in the united states. you have a lot of franchisees from southeast asia, where they worried about sales for for themselves? >> no, they were worried about development. basically what i talked about on q3 was the fact that a lot of franchisees, because they were unsure about the election, about whether they would build two stores or one sale, they feel good about the strategy we have, the fact that we migrated from a beverage to go brand. franchisees are probably more excited than in some time. >> somebody was disappointed you didn't send baskin robbins over for us this morning. they pulled the fire alarm in the building apparently. >> scott, i have to say, i was told by the leader of the fr
franchi franchisees of baskin robbins, i talk about dunkin' donuts too sh, and not enough about baskin robbins, so go out, get the polar ice. >> send some on set. >> i know you count on coffee sales. it is national espresso day. cheers to you as well. what portion of your sales are now express so-based drinks? >> we don't break down the mix. but i will tell you that across the country, this is not just us, espresso sales doubled in the last five years. our sales have gone up continually at double digit rates. most people don't know we have 25,000 ways of making a coffee, the fastest growing is the
latte, cappuccino and macchiato. it's the younger people, the millenniums are into express so-based drinks. >> i think i'm about to make you uncomfortable here. i will show everybody, here's your cup, your christmas cup. it has a christmas tree on it. very much embraces the season. what do you make about the controversy with brand x and what's on their cup or not on their cup? >> well, michelle, i can't see you, but here's my cup, which i guess is the same one. >> yes. >> we're delighted with our cup. our cup has a more traditional feel. our guests tell us they love our cup. it brings the joy of the season. here's a great link. we have renamed our foundation the dunkin' donuts baskin robbins foundation to give food to kids. we want to give kids the activity of life. we think our joy cup really fits into that. we're excited about our cup.
>> thank you, nigel. we'll let you go to spare you this alarm that keeps going off. has happy holidays. >> maybe it's because of breaking news on another donald trump appointment. nbc news is reporting that south carolina governor nikki haley has accepted the president-elect's offer to be u.s. ambassador to the united nations. that is according to a source familiar with the transition process. coming up, a federal judge blocks the obama hike in the payroll. that's coming up next. markets and gold markets.e accel okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do.
visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. enepeople want power.hallenge. and power plants account for more than a third of energy-related carbon emissions. the challenge is to capture the emissions before they're released into the atmosphere. exxonmobil is a leader in carbon capture. our team is working to make this technology better, more affordable so it can reduce emissions around the world. that's what we're working on right now.
welcome back. let's look at u.s. equity futures this hour. look at the markets the day after we did set records on four major averages. there's the s&p 500, dow and nasdaq. not doing too much in the pre-open. implied open would be a few points lower across the board. >> might be waiting for that economic data at 8:30. among the buzz stories, ellen degeneres locked out of the white house. the comedian was attending yesterday's presidential medal of freedom ceremony but she
forgot her i.d. she took this picture of herself saying i haven saying they haven't let me into the house yet because i forgot my i.d. #notjoking. she had some fun on her visit doing the mannequin challenge. you will recognize many of the faces, including robert de niro, tom hanks, bruce springsteen and bill gates. a judge blocked labor rules that were set to kick in on december 1st. kate rogers has that story. >> reporter: a federal judge in texas issued a nationwide injunction yesterday to block a sweeping overtime rule that was set to take effect next week. the regulation would make an additional 4 million salaried workers eligible for overtime pay doubling the salary threshold from $23,000 a year to $47,000 annually. the rule is part of president obama's push to help low-wage
workers in the face of a stagnant federal minimum wage which has been at $7.25 an hour since 2009. business groups including the national federation of independent business who is a plaintiff in one of the challenges to the law called the move a victory for small business owners. the move comes at a time when de-regulation is on the minds of many on main street with donald trump set to take office in january. donald trump said he would implement a rule for two new regulations for each one instated. i know you're probably agreeing with the deregulation push. >> this could never happen. the department of labor changes once he comes into office. main street has been feeling very -- not -- i wouldn't say
they're optimistic, but optimism is stagnant. they like the idea of deregulation. a lot of people were saying with trump coming in, this was a good thing. and this is one thing they were concerned about. >> do we know how many employees are going to be affected by this? this would have impacted 4 million salary employees around the country. they would have gotten this bump in pay. they would have been eligible for it. the nifb said 44% of businesses have one employee that would be entitled to this. >> if you're the employee you would say i won't let that person have as much time as i would normally, because of this issue. >> $40,000 here where we are is
not a bad living, we can't imagine that in new york. unintended consequences would be one of the side effects of this kicking in. coming up, getting ready to celebrate thanksgiving with some little-known history of the american holiday next. that's in particular for wilfred frost who will join us. englishman in new york. his first thanksgiving. we have to teach you all about it. and today, 47 million people expected to travel this holiday season, a lot more than last year. we discuss after this. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats,
their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. the medicare enrollment deadline is just a few days away. changes to medicare plans could impact your healthcare costs. are you getting all the benefits available to you? new plans are now available that could increase your benefits and lower how much you pay out of pocket. to update your coverage- or enroll for the first time -- call healthmarkets. we'll help you make sure you have the right medicare plan. hi, i'm doctor martin gizzi. it's a new medicare year. that means more changes... and more confusion. here's what i tell my patients... start by asking ... what kind of care is best for your current situation? have there been changes in your health or medications? the key question is: what can you do now, to ensure you get the care you need in the coming year? to find the coverage you need,
call healthmarkets today. new medicare plans in your area may offer better coverage and lower costs. healthmarkets has access to thousands of medicare options from leading insurance companies nationwide. plans that may... cost less... cover more ... with more choices... like dental and vision care. and the freedom to choose your own doctors. all at a price you can afford. we help find the right plan for you. and we do it at no cost. there were so many benefits i wasn't taking advantage of. healthmarkets can find me the right plan. and their service doesn't cost a cent. when i try shopping on my own, i get nowhere fast. healthmarkets takes away the confusion. too often i see my patients paying more than they need to because they don't know what they're entitled to. make sure you have what you need to get the care that's right for you. you have only a few days left. if you miss the deadline, you may have to wait another year before enrolling. call a licensed healthmarkets' agent now. call now. call this number by the deadline... and let healthmarkets find the right medicare
welcome back to "squawk box." president obama will spare a turkey's life today. it's a lighthearted tradition each year in the spirit of thanksgiving. the president is presented with two turkeys and he pardons one. the 2015 turkey was an 18-week old 40-pound bird named abe. this year's candidates with two turkeys from iowa. president obama will pardon either ta tshgtater or tot, but both get to live their life gracefully. >> you know who started that tradition?
george h.w. bush. >> that right? >> i thought it was much longer than that. >> i would have said the same thing. in new york today, the floats for the macy's thanksgiving day parade will come to life. the floats will be inflated in preparation for tomorrow's parade, so fun. more than 3 million people will line the parade path on thanksgiving day. you can see the parade live on nbc starting at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. you'll be watching, right? >> is that the first thing i have to do, not just watch it, but attend surely? >> yeah. it's nice. >> 9:00 a.m. >> depends on late you stay out. >> you single men in new york tend to stay out late. >> it's more the fact where i have a week night with no early show. >> the thanksgiving day tradition is getting a high-tech upgrade this year. macy's, nbc universal and
verizon will live stream that parade when it kicks off at 9:00 a.m. eastern. if you have a browser that can handle 360 degree youtube video, you can watch the balloons and floats as if you were cameras strategic points of the parade route. it is the second oldest parade. it's been televised nationally since 1952. can enjoy the first few hours from home. it's thanksgiving eve and american families are preparing to feast. our next guest will tell us the little known history of this american holiday beyond the traditional tale of pilgrims and native americans sharing a communal meal hundreds of years of ago. let's bring in melanie fitzpatri fitzpatrick. her new book is "thanksgiving: the holiday at the heart of the american experience." it's good to see you. >> good to be here. happy thanksgiving to you all. >> thank you. tell us more about this little known famous feast.
>> i wrote a whole book about it so there's a lot to tell. one of my favorite stories has to do with pardoning the turkey. actually in the 1920s calvin coolidge pardoned a raccoon. the state of massachusetts had sent him a raccoon for his thanksgiving dinner and there you go. he decided to make it a pet. >> was that out of spite or did they really think he was going to eat it? >> no, they said it had a toothsome flavor. >> whatever that means. >> i didn't know about fdr changing the date of thanksgiving. can you tell that story? >> yeah. in 1939, the middle of the great depression, franklin roosevelt decided that he was going to help the economy. and he had the dumb idea that if he moved up the date of thanksgiving, it would extend the christmas shopping season and then americans would spend more and the economy would benefit. well, of course americans didn't have anything more to spend. they would have been only too
happy to do so. it didn't work. in 1941 he abandoned the idea. >> great foresight though. >> for three years americans celebrated on separate dates. why? because some states decided they would stick with the traditional date of thanksgiving and the other states decided they would go with franklin roosevelt's date which was called franksgiving. you had the situation of families living in separate states not able to celebrate together because the holiday was different. >> and clearly a non-religious holiday. is this celebrated by all americans or are there still americans that don't recognize it? >> i would say it is a religious holiday. it is very rare. it welcomes all religions and also people of no faith. but there are pockets of people who don't celebrate it. one is jehovah's witnesses and another is small groups of
native americans. most do celebrate it, but it's a complicated time for native americans. >> you mentioned that it's a religious holiday. that's why, for example, when i was reading the summary of your book -- haven't read the book yet -- that priests and people of faith got upset about the rise of football on thanksgiving. >> yes. in the late 19th century, the debate over football was very similar to the debate today over black friday. people would say that it took away from the true meaning of thanksgiving which was giving gratitude and being with family. >> and was there a priest in pennsylvania? or somebody who led the charge? there was some clergymen involved. >> clergymen got involved in the debate. but my favorite quote came from a rabbi in chicago who supported thanksgiving football and said there's a time to pray and a time to play. >> go ahead. >> that's the true meaning. the important meaning.
another side point is eating. an important side point which i'm very excited about. why is it turkey? >> turkey, that's an interesting question. >> for me that's christmas day in the uk. >> there are two eyewitness accounts of the first thanksgiving. and turkey is mentioned. but if you wanted to be true to what the pilgrims ate, you better go out and get some venison. >> okay. i like both. >> pudding on the side maybe? >> did you have a question? >> i was going to talk more about -- i mean, the football side of it which now everybody sort of looks forward to on thanksgiving day, the football people back then were not happy that thanksgiving and football coincided. >> you're absolutely right. they went berserk when roosevelt changed the date of thanksgiving because the football schedules had been set a year in advance. so what were they going to do? everybody was used to going to a
football game on the holiday. roosevelt made that impossible. you don't mess with americans' football. >> i know to many the turkey is a staple to eat. is it a sober holiday or is there a drink to have? >> no, there isn't a -- >> people are allowed to drink? >> oh, yes. you have to drink. >> it's encouraged. >> what's drunk at the wapner household? >> wine. cocktails. >> just like any other day. >> pretty much. >> except you start earlier. >> are you looking for an invitation or something? >> no. >> go buy her book. it's called "thanksgiving." coming up, eli lilly. it's dropping sharply. a key alzheimer's drug. it's going to drop that drug after the study that missed the mark in extended hours trading
stock lower by nearly 15%. ceo and incoming ceo david ricks is going to join us when "squawk box" comes right back. provide ar and faster customer experience. hello mr. kent. can i rebook your flight? i'm here! xerox customer care services... ...soon to be conduent. wait i'm here! mr. kent? (gasp) shark diving! xerox personalized employee portals help companies make benefits simple and accessible... from anywhere. hula dancing? cliff jumping! xerox human resource services... ...soon to be conduent.
on what matters to you. morgan stanley. generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1.
a record high for the dow industrial average as the trump rally rolls on. investors watching the president-elect's policy agenda and which areas of the market could benefit. and which may be a cause for concern. we break down the latest market moves and find out why tom lee says he's seen a seismic shift in sentiment. breaking news from eli lilly on its alzheimer's drugs. we hear more from the executives of the company straight ahead. and it's thanksgiving eve. that could mean only one thing. prepping that turkey for tomorrow's big feast. >> this turkey tastes half as
good as it looks, i think we're all in for a very big treat. >> save the neck for me, clark. >> but that's where things could go really wrong. butter never fear, the butterball turkey hotline is here. we have a key "squawk box" tradition. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box." >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with scott wapner and wilfred frost. the futures at this hour, they're flat. they suggest a slightly lower open. remember the dow crossed for the first time in history yesterday. the s&p also seeing a record
high. 9 out of 11 s&p sectors were positive yesterday. telecoms led the charge up 2%. the nasdaq also scored its fifth straight positive session also hitting a closing high of 5,386. amazon recovering a the selloff that we saw early after the election. charter communications and intel leading the charge. and also, the russell 2000. look at the chart. all back above -- and then the russell 2000, a quadruple for all the major averages yesterday. >> a superfecta. >> is that a gambling term? >> i learned that this morning from twitter followers. >> we wondered what's after a trifecta. it's a superfecta. >> i could go with that.
yeah. we're watching oil prices as well. there seems to be doubts today whether opec will agree to a production cut. reuters reports a gathering in vienna yesterday decided to recommend the cartel debated proposal reduce output to 4.5%. but iran, iraq, and indonesia have expressed reservation about their level of participation. take a look at crude this morning. brent's not doing much and gasoline is down by 0.25%. the yield on the 2-year treasury yesterday hitting the highest level since 2010. yields this morning let's show you there. 2.3%. july it was 1.3%. on election day, 1.8%. 2-year yield at 1.1%. and the 30-year still above 3%. a little bit of flattening i would say. breaking corporate news. an experimental drug from eli lilly failing to slow the
cognitive ability with patients with alzheimer's disease. based on the failure of the study, eli lilly will not seek approval. look at the stock now. off by 14% or more in premarket trading as a result of this news. john lechleiter is going to join us along with david ricks. they'll be on to talk about this. here's what's making headlines this hour. a new appointment from the trump transition team. nbc news is reporting nikki haley has accepted an offer to be u.s. ambassador to the united nations. that according to a source familiar with the transition process. a big beat for deere and company. revenue also well above forecast. the company says 2016 has been one of its ten best years ever despite a difficult heavy equipment market. earnings reports out late
yesterday from two spinoffs from the old hewlett-packard. hp inc. reported and gave a cautious current quarter outlook. meg whitman who headed the former hewlett-packard will join "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. eastern time in a cnbc exclusive interview. the dow of course hitting 19,000 all-time highs as keeping an eye on president-elect trump's policy agenda to find out which areas of the market will benefit. we're joined by tom lee. also here is joe seidel at richard bernstein advisers. good morning to you both. joe, i start with you. i want to touch on why we got so much positivity to the reaction we've seen in markets so far. there must be some people losing
out. why aren't we seeing more of a sentiment of pain around the investing horizon? >> it's a good question. ang lot of the positive reaction we've seen is not in response to the election but the fundamentals had been improving prior to the election. something that had been happening all year long. it was exactly a year ago in the fourth quarter of 2015 when s&p earnings troughed and they've been recovering ever since. and then in february this year we had inflation expectations troughing and beginning to move higher. most of that was overshadowed. i think people are taking stock of the fundamentals and realizing there has been this improvement. there's been this change. it's not just limited to the united states, but we're seeing it globally. where we've seen earnings recovering in emerging markets. we've seen inflation expectations. i think a lot of this is just that the good news has been
overshadowed by the focus on the election. now that the election is behind us, i think people are beginning to realize that equities are the place to be. i think they'll continue to do well for the remainder of the year. >> whatever the spark, you think there's been a seismic shift in terms of sentiment. >> i mean, it's, you don't have to wonder about it. you can see it. i think investors are in some ways glad to put eight years of regulatory behind us. there's reasons to be more optimistic about the next few years. i think there have been losses. there's been more than a trillion dollars lost in bonds. look, if you think about what that means, if at any time you had a big trigger and loss in bonds, it triggered rotation into equities. >> is the lesson perhaps from this year as we look ahead to the final months of this year
and year ahead for risk assets at least political events are buying opportunities? because we've got quite a few to come. >> that's the short -- because that's the short termism that bothers me. i think investors need to be thinking about the bigger stories like inflation, earnings trends. political events are wornt but they appear to be buying opportunities. they're chasing the markets. that happened with election day. you know, we had written how it didn't matter if trump -- and there was a debate last week on this. if trump or hillary won, i think the markets were capable of rallying. even if you presumed as a fact, most people had cash on election day. then we've seen a big chase since then. >> you think this after you initially had a rotation out of some sectors into others like away from growth tech initially into some other cyclical areas
or the reflation trade et cetera that now real new money from the sidelines is coming into the market. do you believe that's the fact? >> that real summon coming from fixed income. investors have been underweight this bull market since they began. and they've been very underweight bonds. >> even from a rotation out of bonds and stocks. a rotation into the market. >> absolutely. and i think that can continue. if you look at the history of flows throughout that market, basically from when the market bottomed through february of 1987. since the election i think the russell 2000 is up 11% and we
see this money coming from. >> what if rates start going up too fast? what if the fed is forced to raise rates faster than people think would happen? and what impact that could have on the stock market? >> i think we need to think about what could go wrong. i would be in the camp that investors are probably getting overly optimistic right now. things like corporate tax reform. they -- investors just historically don't pay for that. even though we think that's going to help pay for corporate profits, it's not going to help the stock market on a p.e. basis. so it's important to think about what could go wrong. but at the moment i think investors aren't contrary enough. >> just to clarify when you say investors don't pay for it, taxes get passed on to whoever
the buyer is. so it's not an investor issue. >> right. you could just do a simple look around the world. low corporate tax countries have lower pes. it's because the present value is already reflects. >> thank you. breaking news from eli lilly is short time ago. meg tirrell joins us with a special guest. >> not the news anyone was looking for this morning from eli lilly. the drug did not meet the goals of its study. as a result lilly says it will not seek regulatory approval. joining us now is dr. john lechleiter and incoming ceo david ricks. thanks for joining us. >> morning. thank you, meg. >> clearly not the result anybody wanted. you've spent billions of dollars on this. how are you approaching what these results mean for lilly? >> obviously we're incredibly
disappointed. we're disappointed for all the people within the company who've worked on this project over many, many years. but we're also very disappointed for the millions of patients and caregivers who are still out there looking for something that will slow down the progression of this disease or perhaps prevent it altogether. we remain committed to alzheimer's disease. this is not the only molecule we have in our portfolio. we have an oral drug we're testing now in phase three. we have five other therapeutic ones in different stages. we're going to look carefully at these results. in this study that involved more than 2,000 patients. learn everything we can from this trial and go back and apply that to the other development programs we have. we also look forward to sharing these data with the scientific community. we're going to be doing that on
december 8th at the clinical meaning in san diego. >> i would also add we've been planning for our future with or without solar for some time. we knew it was a high risk and high reward program. we're disappointed with this result. but we have a lot going on beyond alzheimer's. back in july we told our investors we planned to grow at 5% between now and the end of the decade. that's still intact. that's what we're focused on going forward. >> i had the pleasure of coming to visit you guys and met researchers working on this. thinking of them this morning and how they must be feeling. but what does this mean for the amyloid hypothesis? that a lot of your pipeline also focuses on. i've already been hearing this morning this means it's wrong.
what do you think about that? >> i think there will be more about that. experts in the field, sort of process this data and draw their own conclusions. as we look at the data from expedition 3, there is a trend for the drug. it wasn't significant but we think the amyloid hypothesis should continue to be studied. lilly is doing that. we have a base inhibiter with s astrazeneca. and one in mild patients. we've got our own base inhibiter. and then we have several other disease modifying antibodies. some of those also look at amyloid plaques. attacked a specific part of the amyloid cascade which is the
soluble form. if we think about the problems we have in health care, you have to put alzheimer's at the top of the list. this is the work we think we're here to do. and we have a great team here at lilly focused on that even today with this disappointing news. >> gentlemen, it's michelle here. when we found out donald trump was going to be the president-elect it went to $79. very big move. now it's trading at $64.91. it's really getting crushed in the premarket. what would you say to invest irs right now who are selling? is this reaction justified at this point? >> well, i think it's not a surprise i think when you have news like this, the results of the study were eagerly anticipated and widely known. so i think there's always sort of an emotional reaction, but again the underpinnings of our business are very strong since
2014. we've launched seven new drugs. we said last may at our investor meeting in new york, we expect we can launch 20 medicines including those 7 in that 10-year period from 2014 to 2023. i think if you look at what the sell side investors have written in the past year, i think they understand there's more to lilly than alzheimer's. and i expect the stock to bounce back. >> to what degree was this drug playing into your views on cash flow? i ask that in a sense that a lot of the big pharma companies even if there were concerns about growth, they were buying them for yield. is there any concern about the duff dend as a result of this news? >> no concern about the dividend. we said in july we intend to resume regular annual dividend increases after going through a period where we had lost patents on a number of products.
we held our dividend during that period. we're now back to saying we plan annual increases. that hasn't changed with the news today. >> one more question for you guys and we're just about out of time, but i think a lot of hope 345z gone out of the alzheimer's space today. do we have the commitment from the government and you and the industry to solve this problem? >> eli lilly is committed as ever to alzheimer's. of course we're disappointed with this. but we've communicated we've got a deep and broad pipeline in this area. we've got world experts working theer. it's one of the most significant if not the most significant problem in health care. this country spends $300 billion per year on dementia care. and there's no drug that slows or abates its progress. we think this is the work we're here to do. we think investors want us to continue pursuing alzheimer's. and of course we're diversified
beyond that. so, you know, we're focused on am those things. but plan to continue with alzheimer's with looking at amyloid as well as other moda modalitie modalities. >> thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> thanks for bringing us that, meg. appreciate it. coming up, a live report from o'hare airport as millions of americans get ready to take off to their holiday destinations. first, though, the trump trade. which stocks and sectors are going to feel the impact of new leadership at the fcc and the epa? "squawk box" will be right back 37 this is my headquarters. this is where i trade and manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7.
z where the republicans are now in complete control. so that means that fcc policy will begin to shift and it will start to favor more of the content distributors such as veriz verizon, at&t, comcasts of the world. then at the tech companies that distribute that or lay down that content like netflix and the googles of the world. this is a pretty big shift in policy. >> the thought process here is the service providers themselves would be favored over the content producers. >> that's absolutely correct. the way i would explain it is we did a fcc rule a couple years ago called net neutrality which really created a regulating utility for broadband. that was done through the regulatory process. not the legislative process.
in u. to govern by executive authority, then you're subject to the shift every time we change political parties. >> what's interesting is you have the at&t time warner deal sort of hanging out there. >> yep. >> and the thought was that a trump administration may be against that deal. not that the fcc is going to be the ultimate decider in that. but if the service providers themselves are favored as you say, it's an interesting dynamic. >> i would agree with that. if you didn't have this deal itself, at&t would be in a very good position because they would be getting these changes at the fcc cable box, net neutrality changes. and they have a high corporate tax rate. they would benefit from any kind of corporate tax rate.
there's still some uncertainty about this. then it could go to court. but the fcc has much more wider latitude in rejecting some of these media deals. different than the department of justice. >> he's backed off on a lot of things already. >> who knows. let's go epa. what's the skinny here? >> i think ebell, i've known him for years. he's a very hard working policy wonk. he there's debate whether there's climate change or not climate whang. i think that misses the point of what myron ebell is trying to do. i don't think it's a surprise that donald trump won a majority of private sector unions, a lot of the energy infrastructures being held up. 24 in total. five in the state of pennsylvania. state that donald trump won. and i believe that they're going
to start moving very quickly to put these energy infrastructures in place and get the labor workers back to work. this could happen very quickly and immediately. i think this is a big impact on energy infrastructure. >> to michelle's point, mr. trump has already appeared at least in some areas to maybe, you know, if you want to say soften his views on some of the issues on which he cam feigned. climate change may be one of those. although it's hard to get a true idea where mr. trump is coming down after his comments yesterday. >> but if you think about where mr. trump could have an impact, he's going to appoint a supreme court judge. president obama's clean power act which caps emission will then be heard before the supreme court. presumably it would be a 5-4 majority if that person is aligned to mr. trump's views. and on top of that, there's a belief they're going to submit the paris climate change deal like any type of treaty can be ratified.
my guess is the senate will not ratify the paris climate treaty. >> if carl icahn had his way who by the way has mr. trump's ear, the epa might disappear altogether. >> we'll see. >> appreciate the time this morning. >> thanks for having me on. still to come, donald trump, his brand and his potential business conflicts. holman jenkins will join us to discuss. as we head to break, a look at futures which are mixed but pretty much in line following a superfecta of highs yesterday. man, i'm glad aflac pays cash. aflac! isn't major medical enough? no! who's gonna' help cover the holes in their plans? aflac!
like rising co-pays and deductibles... aflac! or help pay the mortgage? or child care? aflaaac! and everyday expenses? aflac! learn about one day pay at aflac.com/boat blurlbrlblrlbr!!! okay, so you launched your bank's app. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy?
the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose. and we're digitizing the way banks run, driving efficiencies and delivering new value for their customers in return. digital works for banking and financial services. lets talk about how digital works for your business. ♪
well. mortgage applications rose last week. mortgage banker association says applications rose 5.5% even as the average 30-year rate rose to 4.16%. making people scrambling to buy. refinancing activity did fall but new purchase applications surged. holiday package deliveries could be delayed. pilots at cargo airline have gone on strike. the bulk of the airlines business is transporting packages for amazon.com and dhl express. >> president-elect trump spending thanksgiving in florida. that gave eamon javers a chance to get back to washington. he joins us now. hi, eamon. >> reporter: hi, scott. spent the day yesterday at trump tower watching the comings and goings there. the president-elect as you say is now at mar-a-lago in florida hunkered down for the thanksgiving holiday. but we learned that nikki haley will be the next pick to be u.n.
ambassador. so that's an important announcement coming later today we expect. and also who else is in the mix? we see mitt romney as a possible selection here for secretary of state. those are two of the more moderate figures and importantly those are figures in the republican party who criticize donald trump during the campaign. and that seems to be of a piece with this shifting of positions we're seeing from donald trump post-election. look at some of the points he made in his interview which was wide ranging just yesterday. starting with the idea of backing off the idea of water boarding. he said he's now talked to general mattis about water boarding. he said he thinks "the new york times" will be happy with his stance on the first amendment. he says he disavows the alt-right after an event in washington where there were some nazi salutes and people were saying things like hail trump.
he also said he's got no legal obligation to separate his business empire as president-elect and even as president of the united states. take all that together and what you see is a fairly dramatic shift of donald trump's positions post-election. and i think to go back to a point we made in the earlier hour, i think what you're seeing here is something different in american history. typically candidates shift back to the center before the general election and primary. what we're seeing here is a shift toward the center after the general election and before the period of governing. and that question will remain whether his supporters who voted for all those positions will tolerate this or whether they voted for the man and they trust donald trump. >> we'll have to wait and see. thanks so much. glad to see we didn't fort eamon to go down to palm beach for thanksgiving and stand outside the mar-a-lago. conflicting with the upcoming presidency. in a meeting with "the new york times" yesterday, trump said the
law's totally on my side. for more let's bring in holman jenkins. he has written about this very issue in today's paper. holman, good to have you here. >> great to be with you guys. >> i'm going to boil down your thesis to one thing which is impossible for him to disavow his business at this point and perhaps much adieu about nothing? >> i don't think it's much adieu about nothing. it could potentially be a huge problem for him and the company. by everything time he's doing it for the private interests of his company. that could be a problem. >> but you made the point that everybody knew about this before the election. right? that people -- if they voted for him, implicitly accepted this? >> we have known who donald trump is for the last 40 years. everybody now who they were electing. everybody knew about his business interests. i think it's possible the public will just swallow this. trump can always say you know who i am.
what i'm doing is good for me, good for the trump brand, good for america. >> you're taking the stance that the conflicts themselves aren't bad? if the left makes them feel bad? >> that could disable a presidency. you're right. conflicts are a problem. you have to suspect every time he does something that he might be doing it for pecuniary motives. it would be better without these conflicts. and the public has bought into this by electing him. >> i get when you say people knew who they were electing and the point he made that the law is on his side. but the next of that quote, the president can't have conflicts of interest. now, that is a quote that's reminiscent of the line that in fact my father illicited. >> it's not illegal if the president does it. that's a ridiculous statement in his part.
he probably meant something along the lines that what's good for america is good for trump and vice versa. those aren't inherent in any professional's life. they have conflicts of interest. you have to manage them. >> is he being crazily foolish not to do the same thing with his business interests? he could draw a line under this if he tries to separate himself a little bit more than we're expecting him to do and move his children away. >> first of all, he doesn't want to do that. business empire is his legacy. he doesn't think it's a bad thing. how would he do it? he'd have to annul the trump brand. his children wouldn't be able to use it. new buyers of his properties wouldn't be able to use it. >> should he be allowed -- allowed in quotes. should he be allowed to have meetings that could benefit the trump company personally while he's president? >> well, he will have such
meetings. >> it's not avoidable, is it? >> it's not avoidable. the question is someone going to find a chink in the legal armor who go after him in this? and that's the thing i worry about. >> does he need to have his children applying for security cleenss to help run the presidency and also run the company? >> no. he should keep them out of running the country altogether and keep them in charge of the business. he'll have to claim they are not consulting with him. but who's going to believe that? i'm not going to believe it. it's just not the way he operates. >> this is a complex issue. >> it really is. >> explain more about the issue of the impossibility of him undoing his business or disconnected himself from the business. what the business is makes it -- if you have a bunch of stocks, you can put them all in a blind trust and somebody else runs them. >> these are hundreds of
contractual relationships. he can't just take that away from people using his name. even if he sells it to someone else, who would buy it? they would still care about the value of the trump brand and so would he. if his children are running the business, he's not separated at all. >> the fact they could borrow money, do an ldo on his position. but that doesn't take away the fact that -- >> he cares. >> -- withdraw your children from running it for a four-year period? >> they're grownups. why should they do that? they own the trump name as much as he does. >> i agree with that. but you said his business is the trump legacy. i'd argue whatever happens in the next four years will far outweigh for all americans and perhaps the rest of the world what his business does. >> i think he sees those in total as one legacy. this is trump nation. he's put his brand on our country now. that's how he sees it. >> when he brings up the wind
power off the coast of his thing in scotland with nigel farage, how do you think about that? >> how do you mean? >> he shouldn't have or it doesn't matter? >> he's going to talk about that stuff because it's going to come up anyway. he's going to talk freely about that. my concern is he's going to get such pushback that he's going to start making concessions to the left in order to get them off the back. that's the other way this could play out. >> makes concessions based on what people deem as what you're supposed to do when you're the president of the united states and a businessman at the same time. why are you spinning it in that sense all towards what the left is going to do when the conversation should be as president of the united states and a businessman should he have obligations legal or otherwise to disavow himself in any kind of way from his business dealings?
>> those legal obligations don't exist. and the reason i mention left is because the real danger here is he becomes a disabled and dysfunctional president over this. his opponents will use this. they will use lawsuits, conflicts of interest to batter him relentlessly. trump is a new kind of president. this is a whole new set of problems. and maybe the country has just said we're willing to live with it. >> as he said, the law's on his side. does the law need to change? not going to change in enough for time for this this presidency. but why is it different? >> george washington did not have to sell his tobacco plantation. you can't just say your previous life has to be annulled and wiped out so you have no stake in it anymore. >> i don't think that's the argument. it should be put in a blind trust and left for a period of time and you can come back to it. >> the nature of the trump business is the blind trust is
irrelevant because of the name. >> good to have you with us. we're watching shares of eli lilly. an experimental drug unable to slow progression with alzheimer's patients. lil si says it will not seek u.s. approval. coming up, cooking the perfect turkey. tips from butterball to make sure it happens without a hitch or indigestion. check out the futures at this hour. dow up 13 premarket. s&p and nasdaq are flat. "squawk" back after this. is happening before our eyes. shift in human history sixty to seventy million people are moving to cities every year. at pgim we help investors see the implications of long term megatrends like the prime time of urban expansion, pinpointing opportunities to capture alpha
in real estate, infrastructure and emerging markets. partner with pgim the global investment management businesses of prudential. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t.
the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley ♪ that is so cool. look at the ice. see, "squawk box." that's there all day, right? >> all year. >> this one, my favorite christmas song. >> i also can't wait for that tree to be all ready to go. >> oh. it's going to be great.
low airfares, a strong economy bb and strong consumer confidence means a record number of americans are expected to fly somewhere this thanksgiving. phil lebeau joins us now from o'hare airport in chicago. >> reporter: i've been doing this almost 20 years coming here to o'hare to report on the crowds right before thanksgiving. this might be the quietest i've seen it. there are no delays, no cancellations. we've got rainstorms moving through the area. but generally speaking it's off to a smooth start here. you mentioned why so many people are flying. low airfares. look at this data from fare website hopper. we talked about this the last couple of years about fares moving lower and lower. we're down about $216 the average airfare last month. and as a result you've got more people flying. there are some concerns about whether or not tsa and the airlines are ready for these crowds. most believe we shouldn't see major problems with people
getting through security lines. >> i think now the tsa is well prepared. they've gotten past those issues that they were dealing with at that time. that said, though, this is the busiest travel weekend of the year. and travelers should prepare for very long lines regardless of what's happening with the tsa. >> guys, i know all of the stocks -- not all, but most stocks have had a heck of a run since the election of donald trump. but take a look at the airline stocks in particular. these are some dramatic moves that we're seeing from american, united, delta, southwest. all of them up basically double digit ifs not more than 15% since november 9th. we're going to be here all day long, but the good news is not just here at o'hare but most major airports around the country things are off to a smooth start. let's hope they stay that way. back to you. >> thank you. have a good thanksgiving, bud. >> reporter: you too. >> thanks. as we get ready to gather for the ultimate turkey feast
tomorrow, the butterball turkey talk line is open for business. even the sharpest cooks in the kitchen have questions about how to cook the perfect bird. should you really put the stuffing inside the bird? or even what to do with the gizzards. we have all the -- >> what is a gizzard? >> well, you're going to find out. just wait. there's always one person every year who thinks they know everything. >> all right. thanksgiving. my job is to prepare the perfect turkey. happens every year. first thing, cleanliness is next to godliness. someone else is going to have to turn this off. all right. there we go. here's the turkey. here's my stuffing. is this back here right? pay no attention. doctor's orders. might want to cough a little bit. whoa. that is cold. that's cold. that's cold and wet. and you really want to stuff it
in here. you really want to -- in other words, you really want to pack it. okay. hold on a second. almost done here. all right. voila. ready to go now. >> well, joining us now with some dos and don'ts for tomorrow's big dinner, susan smith. expert at the butterball turkey line. good morning. >> good morning and happy almost thanksgiving. >> same to you. i'm embarrassed for my friend joe kernen who was just seen on video stuffing a turkey and packing as much stuffing as you possibly could get into the bird which is -- it has to be an ultimate no no. >> well, we don't recommend that. in fact, you know what? i'm going to give you our text number because maybe he wants advice on that. this year we went on demand. text us 24/7.
8448773456. i don't know if you can see behind me but we're already taking the calls and answering the texts. >> when is peak time for the folks there answering the phone? >> we are in peak mode right now. >> already? >> tomorrow we'll take over 10,000 calls. we are busy. and year after year the number one call is how do you get the turkey thawed. if it's still frozen, get it out, put it on a tray and start soaking it either in the refrigerator or soak it in cold water breast side down. >> keep it in the wrapper though. >> keep it in the original wrapper while thawing it, absolutely. >> but not when you're cooking it. this is ridiculous, but i actually read -- no i did i read things that people called about over the years. and i read that somebody called and said their turkey had no breast and it turns out it was upside down. >> yes. >> and that they actually cooked
the bird in the wrapper and was shocked when it didn't come out right. >> yeah. you'll never know what kind of question you're going to get here when you're at the talk line. but there's three t's that we always tell people. keep it simple. first is for thaw. we talked about that. make sure that turkey is completely defrosted. the second one is thermometer. it is your best friend on thanksgiving morning. then you know when your turkey is done. 180 in the thigh, 170 in the breast. and my third t is tents. you're going to protect the top. >> we've got a new person here at cnbc u.s. wilfred is from london. this is his first thanksgiving so he has lots of questions. >> i do have lots of questions most notably on what -- well i
don't know what a gizzard is. but what are the key things to serve this with in terms of thanksgiving turkey? >> to serve with? >> yeah. >> well, we have so many great recipes. you can see here we have a classic caesar green bean casserole, a chocolate cake with coconut frosting. you can spice it up however you want. a lot of people like to stuff their turkey. i know we were talked about giblets i heard you guys talking about that. make sure to get the giblets out of the cavity. they're in a white bag. a lot of people like to simmer those up and cut them up and use them in their gravy or stuffing. >> are giblets and gizzards the same thing? >> giblets -- yeah. for the giblets there's the heart, the gizzard, and liver. so there's three separate giblets in that bag. and also a neck in the other cavity. >> so the gizzard is a giblet.
>> it is. it's a giblet. >> i have to say thank you. three important t's and none of them was for turkey. i was expecting that to be the bottom line. >> that's the given. of course that's the main feature. you unwrap it, take some vegetable oil and kind of lightly brush the top of that turkey, gives it that nice golden brown color. >> susan, thank you so much for joining us. we look forward to eating tomorrow with those tips. >> my pleasure. i hope you have a great thanksgiving. >> "squawk box" stocks to watch on the open. futures this morning pretty much flat after we hit record highs for all three of those indices you're looking at as well as the russell. back in a couple minutes.
where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars. generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues.
don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. welcome back to "squawk box." let's take a look at some stocks to watch this morning. heavy equipment maker deere more than doubled estimates. revenue was also above estimates. deere says 2016 has been a very good year in a difficult market. shares up very nicely indeed. 11.3%. urban outfitters reported quarterly profit of 40 cents per share 4 cents short of estimates while compatible store sales fell. they were hurt by promotional activity and slower sales. shares down 10%. video game retailer gamestop 49 cents per share 2 cents above estimates. but gave a disappointing holiday
forecast. shares performing nicely up 3.7%. coming up, investors giving thanks to dow 19,000. plus a look at the trump rally and how long it's going to last. plus the big holiday shopping season is upon us. preview of what to expect on black friday. are retailers going to benefit? "squawk box" will be right back. this is where i trade andrs. manage my portfolio. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets.
okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you. today, we're seeing new technologies make healthcare more personal with patient-centric, digital innovations; from self-monitoring devices
that can interpret personal data and enable targeted care, to cloud platforms that invite providers to collaborate with the patients they serve. that's why over 90% of the top 25 global pharmaceutical companies are turning to cognizant. our domain experts, technologists, digital and data specialists, clinicians and scientists are transforming the way clinical research sites collaborate with pharmaceutical companies, and enhancing patient engagement with innovative platforms and solutions. our population's growing healthcare needs present growing opportunities for our clients: to advance the future of medicine with digital, and improve the quality of lives. ♪
the trump rally rolls on. major averages soaring to record highs and the dow hitting a major milestone. breaking economic news. two key reports on the agenda ahead of the moll day. the numbers and reaction ahead. plus it's going to be cheaper for second and third helpings this year. how slumping turkey prices impact your feast and what it means for the farm economy. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera along with scott wapner and
wilfred frost. the dow posting an all-time high crossing above the 19,000 mark for the first time in history. the s&p also seeing record intraday and closing highs. that index ticking up the 2200 mark for the first time. 2202. and add the russell 2000 to that list as well. we are less than 90 minutes from the opening bell on wall street. the futures right now, let's see how they're doing as they get ready for the open. dow would open by 21 points. let's check on the price of crude oil today. wti and brent. brent fractional mover as well. take a look at the 10-year. a lot of conversation about whether yields have been going. 2.32% is the yield right now on the 10-year note.
here are the stories investors will be talking about today. shares of eli lilly getting slammed this morning. the company says its experimental drug failed to slow effects of alzheimer's disease. ceo john lechleiter and david ricks joined us on "squawk box" in the last half. >> you should expect that we're going to look carefully at these results. that will take weeks or month to really fair out all the information in this study that involved more than 2,000 patients. learn everything we can from this trial and go back and apply that to the other development programs we have. >> we've been planning for our future with or without solar for some time. we knew it was a high risk and high reward program. we're disappointed with this result, but we have a lot going
on beyond alzheimer's. another appointment as president-elect trump continues his process. nikkei hailey has accepted an offer to be ambassador to u.n. and a business day for economic reports. durable goods out in about 30 minutes' time. followed by october home sales. then the minutes from this month's fed meeting will be released. stocks on a roll following the election and now the dow has breached the 19,000 level. dom chu is here to talk about what went over the top. >> it was a move in boeing, united health, and other names in there. some of the best. if you look since the election, the move we've seen since donald trump presumably will take a nice smooth path to the white house. you look at those and financials
by far the best performing sectors you can see there. i want to highlight this in terms of sectors hit record intraday levels yesterday. consumer staples and utilities on the interest rate shot up huge. yields across the whole curve have gone up. so we can expect those sectors to outperform as well. if you look at some of the individual performers in the dow and s&p, goldman sachs and wheel house there the best performers. you were just showing deere showing the industrial sides of things. on the s&p side, nvidia. we'll see if they continue their move here. but the consumer is a focus here. kohl's, best buy, advance auto parts. many of these consumer names also darden restaurants hitting
a record high. best buy hitting highs as well as. you have a lot of guys moving and that maybe bodes well for the consumer. that's going to be the real key. >> the banks you said, bank of america the best of all of the banks because it's the most -- >> of the money center side. u.s. bank. >> four or five of the regionals. >> absolutely right. >> thanks, dom. >> you're welcome. all right. let's discuss more about the markets. ed campbell and david leftowitz. good to have you here. so the markets giving donald trump a lot of credit and he doesn't even take over until january 20th. whap do you do right now? i mean, do you keep buying into this in the hopes you get even more or is this all baked in? >> i think the key message is the range of outcomes is probably going to be a bit
larger. focused on the positive aspects of the trump administration likely to pursue. >> lower taxes, more infrastructure spending, less regulation. >> we can all name them off the top of our heads. but there are some risks. we have to be prepared we could see more volatility. >> what are the risks? >> trade friction is a possibility. uncertainty how the u.s. engages with the rest of the world from a security standpoint. also we don't know what's going on with monetary policy and who's going to be leading the fed not right now but as we go into 2018. >> ed, what do you think at this point? this rally that has been so strong. do you chase it or do you back off? >> so i mean as you point out, markets have priced in a lot very quickly here. especially the bond market which has moved pretty significantly. there's always a possibility of pullback or consolidation here. but i do think the pro-growth
trade is the new trend. so i do think it's something if you get the opportunity to reposition here, you want to position for it. >> there's time to buy the financials. there's times to buy the consumer stocks and sell your utilities if you haven't already? >> yeah. >> really? double down on that? >> can yes. >> you agree? >> yeah. i do think the outlook for financials is definitely, that's definitely changed. we're definitely going to have -- the pendulum is swinging. and in interest rates, it's not going to be -- we're not going to see more increases in yields from here. >> so the 10-year's at 2.3%. you think it goes where? >> we think it stays at this level over the next 12 months. but broadly 2.5%. i think that's reasonable until we see what the policies are that come through from congress and this new administration. >> what do you guys do with tech here? >> so i mean -- >> like high-growth tech?
>> tech isn't really an area that responded as strongly -- >> since the 14th or so it has. >> i think you want to be basically -- the pro-growth trade is focused. so i think you want to be more focused on the defensively oriented. small cap, value stocks, financials. we talked about they're a primary beneficiary of steeper yield curve and the regulatory rollback that we're expecting. another area that we like is energy. so that's an area that had been hit hard that is recovering. you know, i think oil and gas markets are rebalancing and should move into balance in 2017. so you're going to see higher oil and gas prices. >> to what extent are we being too focused domestically. so the banks playing catch-up from underperformance throughout the rest of the year.
and we've got an issue. january and february we remember were terrible for markets. so a little too focused on -- >> i think the biggest risks are probably outside the u.s. to your point. we do have a lot of political decision points in europe especially. the china story i think is well known. and that could reflair at a certain point. there are stul a lot we need to get through with the new administration. markets have done well. the biggest thing is financials are doing well. that has probably played out. but markets overall only up about 3% since the election. and i think we have to be prepared for there could be some risks that come onto the radar. broadly, earnings are improving. the fed remains accommodative. we think they move higher over
time. >> guys, good to see you this morning. thank you. >> thank you. still to come, pack your bags. thanksgiving travel is expected to hit a nine-year high. we'll check in with the ceo of flight aware. he'll have the latest. plus a lot still ahead on "squawk box." including a deluge of economic reports. and the numbers behind your thanksgiving. we'll be right back.
welcome back to "squawk box." check out shares of deere. more than doubled street estimates. revenue also well above forecast. the company said 2016 has been one of its ten best years ever and that's despite a heavy equipment market. let's talk holiday travel. traveling this thanksgiving. while an estimated 48 million americans are. expected to have longer lines and more delays. joining us to help navigate daniel baker ceo of flight aware. good morning to you. thank you for joining us. >> good morning. >> i suppose the first question is weather based and it seems to
be holding up all right. >> yeah. we're in pretty good shape. you know, it's sort of -- you can almost set your watches by the beginning of the holiday travel season by some sort of snowstorm coming through. we haven't seen that in the u.s. which is really terrific. we're seeing a few cities for example salt lake where they're getting a wintry mix which leads to deicing and antiicing that can add 15, 20 minutes before departu departure. no major systems that will affect a large number of travelers. >> in terms of the capacity we see across the industry stateside now, of course there's been some airlines pulling out of the last decade. is there a decent balance at the moment for companies to be able to make profit and services they need? >> that's right. and certainly airfares are at a real low right now. so that shows that people can get where they want to go for reasonable money. the airlines are taking advantage of low fuel prices to
be able to turn a profit. they're also leveraging a lot of fees that everyone's seen whether it be the baggage fees or seat reservation fees or premium fees. another thing they're doing is called fleet densification. for putting more seats on an airplane. they're adding not only rows to airports but more seats. that's taking away some of the width which is good for profits and certainly means that there's more availability of seats. obviously you'll have less room. but that's more people getting on the plane before and after you. more people fighting for the same overhead bin space. it's just a lot more people for the airline to handle. this is an industry that's really tried to address the on time issues that airlines are expecting -- >> what about the tsa? are we done with the tsa issues? are we going to see horrendous lines again?
>> there were real capacity issues over the summer. . they seem to have addressed those. every day there's more people traveling. higher load factors which is the percentage of the seats filled. there's certainly more people going through the lines. but you're paying for that service in your ticket. i hope the tsa can continue to accommodate that. >> daniel, warren buffett bought in recently. do you see that as a vote of confidence? >> it really is. the industry has really changed over the last couple of decades from being an industry that just loves aviation that wants to operate airplanes and wants to do the coolest things and compete for passengers and have the biggest planes to say wait a minute this is a business. we need to optimize and charge people for the services that they're receiving. and it was, you know, met with a little bit of concern from
passengers who were used to getting an incredible amount of service for not much money. you look at the leadership and it's shifted towards people that are trying to arkt tect a profitable business. there's a lot more initiative to operate profitably even in the event of oil prices going up. >> daniel baker, thank you very much for joining us this morning. >> thanks. have a happy thanksgiving. >> you too. all right. coming up, the countdown to black friday is on. while it may not be as big as it once was, still a chance to cash in. and then later, hudson's bay ceo gerald storch is going to join us. "squawk box" will be right back.
slightly lower. meantime, juno therapeutics has halted a study of a cancer treatment after two patients suffered cerebrals endemas and one died. it's almost time for the super bowl of retail. black friday, of course. google is introducing a new feature to its map software in an effort to court bargain hunters. the tech giant is now going to show you a status update about just how busy a store may be in realtime. the company has offered its popular times feature within its search and maps tools since july of 2015. you see it a lot for museums, for example. now the live information is based on users sharing their location data. let's get some expectations for the official kickoff of the holiday shopping season now. courtney reagan joins us from midtown manhattan. hey. >> reporter: hi there. good morning to you, scott. black friday isn't as big for
retail as it once was, but still one of the most important days. expected 137 million americans or 59% of the population to shop over the course of the weekend in stores or online. black friday will again be the busiest of the weekend days. 102 million americans are expected to hit the stores. and that's about on par with what we saw last year. but adobe predicts online sales will top $3 billion for the first time. and that would be up 11% from last year. again like last year, retailers are beginning to offer those black friday deals online earlier in november. so that very well could be pulling and continue to pull sales earlier in the month. when it comes to thanksgiving day, 29 million americans plan to hit the stores there. that's also about the same as last year. most retailers are keeping thanksgiving opening hours the same this year. and that halts the multi-year
trend of opening earlier and earlier. jcpenney will be opening doors at 3:00. that's the earliest. you're going to see the biggest crowds at the big box stores on thanksgiving evening. then many of the shoppers go home, rest, and go back out and hut the mall around 9:00, 10:00 a.m. and through midday. so the patterns are shifted but it's still a very big day. >> to what extent are the deals we see over this weekend genuine deals and kind of marketing gimmicks? and do people kind of buy into that still after the last decade people becoming so much more aware of advertising ploys? >> reporter: what's wonderful about the internet is that you have a lot of price transparency all the time not just during this time of year. black friday deals with b though, are still pretty good if not the best deals that you're going to see most of the year. now, they're often the same as what you saw the last year.
so that samsung 55 inch tv, it's the new model this year but the price is going to be on par with what the similar model was last year on black friday weekend. electronics are a big draw and appliances as well. but not everything is priced -- its best price on black friday. retailers can only go so far. they have to maintain margins and there's agreements with vendors. >> -- inventories a lot lower this time around over and over again from all these retailers i hear them saying they managed inventories. meaning they have less stuff to sell. it's possible you've got to get out there earlier this year compared to other years if you actually want to get the things you need or want, right? >> reporter: and that's a great question. you're right. inventories are lower for many retailers in some cases by double digits. last year inventories were way too high, way bloated. that means retailers had to slash those prices much, much further than they wanted to even after christmas season. that was also because of the
weather. remember it was 65, 70 degrees here on the east coast. and so they were having a really hard time selling those sweaters and coats. so inventory levels are lower. but it probably won't be low enough that you're going to see shortages. at least drastically so any more than what you've seen before. >> thank you, courtney. among today's top stories, facebook upping efforts to enter china. the social network has developed software that censors posts before they appear. further by preventing content from appearing on feeds in china in the first place. alphabet's google unit is near a tax settlement with the indonesian government. the company will reportedly agree to pay back taxes and fines. coming up, a healthy helping
my hygienist said the most random thing. she said i should think of my teeth like an apple. it could be great on the outside not so great on the inside. her advice? use a toothpaste and mouthwash that strengthens both. go pro with crest pro-health advanced. it's uniquely formulated with activestrength technology to strengthen teeth inside and is better at strengthening the outside than colgate total. crest toothpaste and mouthwash makes my whole mouth feel amazing. advance to healthier gums and stronger teeth from day one. my check-up was great. crest. healthy, beautiful smiles for life.
♪ we're just seconds away from jobless claims and durable goods. futures at this hour are suggesting pretty flat after we had that quadruple -- what are we calling it, wilfred? >> superfecta. >> all major averages hitting all-time highs yesterday. right now the nasdaq and s&p slightly lower. but we are on the verge of key economic data. that could all change. here is the 10-year note. i love pointing out that the lows of july were 3%. on election day it was 1.8%. you can see that megamove on the
right side side of the screen. >> and do they rise to a point where they end up crimping the reason for the optimism which is the idea that all of this spending coming, what happens here is that the cost to the treasury rises with each basis point. already spending a record amount of interest. >> hurry up here. >> let's get the numbers. >> all right. october preliminary durable goods up much more than expected. up 4.8%. last look, minus 0.3% revised to a positive up 0.4%. strip out transportation, it's up 1%. also stronger than expected. although we did get a slight positive revision. and let's look at durable goods orders, non-defense air. capital investing, spending. we're looking for that number to be up in the up 0.3% camp.
now here's a little fly in the ointment. last month down 1.3%. this is key. we don't want to see minus numbers here a negative number to 1.4%. if we look at shipments versus orders, they were up 0.2%. jobless claims. last week revised to 233,000 and then bump that up to 251,000. so it's up 18,000, but then again when you're coming from a level of 233,000, even though 18,000 higher is a bit shocking it's close to expectations. and weekly claims, they move back above 2 million from 1.98 million to 2.04 million. listen, this isn't a bad number. we still have a lot of data because of thanksgiving holiday tomorrow in the form of university of michigan new home sales. but what's jumping out at me, we can talk about higher rates and definitely rates are moving higher.
but let's not lose sight of a couple of issues. there's a lot of dynamics outside of the potential administration that believes in growth this time around and all three -- the two chambers and president on the same side of the aisle. that's all good. but there's a lot of other reasons. look to europe to see what they are. there's a real shortage of high quality sovereign paper. their yields have been moving in the other direction. close to 210 boy sis points yesterday. but today bunds are up about six basis points. because the government's going to have to start lending out what it wrongly purchased like all central banks. so rising rates isn't only for the right reasons. it's fixing what was the wrong reasons. and that is something not to forget. judge, back to you. >> thanks, rick. leisman's here obviously. >> i didn't want to get that 10-year up right away.
boy. three bips on the 10-year on this durables and claim number. i think expectation of -- that's the long-term chart. it's the this session chart that looks amazing. i'm interested in the 2-year. did you guys see that bumpup as well? yes, it did. there we go. there's the 2-year now 1.11%. you said michelle the dollar also surged. >> 1.05 on the euro. it had been indecisive throughout the morning. >> i think the market is dealing with many things. among them, the u.s. economy before all of this talk about stimulus looks like it found legs in the third quarter and it's quite unusually maintaining those legs in the fourth quarter. our rapid update tracking forecast was running 2.5% after a 3% in the third quarter. and these numbers are good for
two reasons. surge in boeing orders and good numbers for shipments. it was apparently the best month ever for 787 dreamliners and 747s. there's that surge in orders for october. that's just orders. doesn't take into account for shipments. they've done well and the mix is quite good moneywise. so that's happening. got to look closely but looks like mining may find its legs. and then the claims number is bouncing back. >> can we bring up an intraday of the -- rick, you wanted to weigh in? >> yes. we are only seeing about a one basis point move. we are already at 2.34% before the number. yes, they both increased. >> there's that chart, steve. take a look. that looks pretty significant. >> i've got to say i like rick's numbers almost always better than my own when it comes to the market. but i'm looking at four bips
here. so i was curious as to what rick was seeing there. certainly three bips. >> the market to this point has been giving a higher pass because it assumes that growth is going to justify -- >> let's bring in john riding. great to have you with us. the durable goods number particularly strong. manufacturing is delivering. >> well, it's delivering from a low base. but to steve's point about the acceleration of the economy, if the economy as a whole, we're pretty much at full employment. and we're looking at the potential for, say, $500 billion a year increases in a fiscal deficit on a rising path. so it's not surprising that the economic behaviors that existed before the financial crisis and before seven years or zero rates are beginning to kick back in in the markets. in the old days, steve wouldn't have been surprised by a three
basis point move in 10-years following a number. it would have been standard business. but volatility has been so low by a fed committed to zero rate. >> 50 basis points since the election, you start to sort of thbt to what level do rates go and it becomes a problem for the stock market. as you get this able to move higher in the 10-year -- >> if profits are driving the economy and equity prices. the problem for the stock market is actually we've had five quarters of down year over year profit growth. now, if that doesn't change and you get higher yields then you run into problems. >> i'm not worried about that. i think there's a good expectation that profits were going to turn around regardless of what happens. and if you get this kicker, look. it's hard for either side to make an argument here. especially the democrats to
argue that we didn't need infrastructure spending. they were pounding the table for it. it'll be interesting to see as i wrote in a piece on cnbc.com, the tea party republicans how they cherry coat it. and changing size of the deficit depending on whether or not you're in power is so normal that it's hard to waste breath being indignant about it. >> i'm not talking about being indignant about it. i'm saying we're looking at a potential reality that a fiscal deficit will be $1 trillion to $1.5 trillion a year for the next four years. $186 billion last year and somebody has to buy that debt. then the fed has to say, wait a minute. we were the only game in town for seven years. we can start to renormalize and maybe at a faster pace and maybe even start to reduce our balance sheet. >> that's the key. how do you change your expectation for when the fed may
go out there. they want to get rid of the mortgages first and then sell the treasuries. >> i'm thinking -- well, they're not going to sell. they're going to allow them to run off. but that's a big runoff. $200 billion next year. and more in 2018. i said june of next year for the beginning of allowing the balance sheet to run down. so the market absorbs all this. good economic news comes in and markets begin to respond in a way. maybe this will influence fed behavior. >> so the yield now at the highest level since april of 2010. you willing to protect where the 10-year is going. >> as we think about next ye year -- and i've been accused these days of being timid in my forecasts. we're thinking 3% for the 10-year which is still a --
>> 3%? >> i wouldn't get up in the morning and come on your tv show. i'd just -- >> john, i'm going to go to every news meeting from now until the end of the world and they're going to ask me one question. at what point does the 10-year rise begin to -- not just stocks but economic as well. they're going to ask that question. give me that answer. >> hold on. if you're 4.9% unemployment and if you get $100 billion a year of infrastructure spending and you get $400 billion of tax cuts, something else has to slow down because there aren't the resources in the economy to deliver. we've got to stop thinking about underemployment and it being about demands and rates creating growth. the higher interest rate, the crowds out the private sector to allow the public sector to acquire resources. the unemployment rate in the construction industry is at the lowest it was since the peak of the housing boom. so who's going to build all
this? >> michelle, you've been on meetings. what would happen if i give that answer? >> glassy eyes. >> it was a good answer. only so many resources in the economy. the idea that trump's going to make 25 million jobs, we don't have the workers for those 25 million jobs. >> absolutely not. >> any advice for your fellow englishman's first thanksgiving in new york? >> yeah. got to a problem when it comes to christmas. that's when we eat turkey. now you have two turkeys. >> do a ham. >> there we go. john, thank you very much for joining us. steve, thanks as always. we told you that juno therapeutics stock is getting sold off dramatically. this was the second time a study of the treatment had been halted. the experimental treatment was designed to treat a certain type of blood cancer. coming up, first comes
turkey then comes shopping. you may have access to some deals now. official start of black friday kicks off in less than 48 hours. we'll talk to gerald storch on some of the retail trends this season and what we might expect on one of the busiest days of the year for stores. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc. so corporate put you up in a roadside motel. but with directv from at&t, you can download then binge watch your dvr'd shows from anywhere. that makes you more powerful than whatever it is you just stepped in. or that friendly dumpster diver outside. i wouldn't sit there. it's your tv, take it with you. now you can watch your dvr anywhere, at no extra cost, with directv from at&t.
okay, so you launched your bank's app. now what? how will you keep up with the new demands of today's digital economy? the fact is: some believe they won't need a traditional bank down the road, so at cognizant, we're helping banking and financial services companies think digital, be untraditional, and reimagine what the bank of the future can be. our clients can now leverage customer intelligence to predict their financial needs and provide more contextualized products and services. we're creating new platforms across channels so customers can effortlessly invest, borrow, lend, transact-wherever-whenever they choose.
now official. president-elect donald trump has nominated south carolina governor nikki haley to be u.s. ambassador to the u.n. he made that initial a statement. very well known in the united states about the drama of the confederate flag. meanwhile, eli lilly drug failing to slow the progression of alzheimer's. this was a large trial. based on the failure of the study, they will not seek approval of the drug for mild dementia. shares up sharply some 30%. the onslaught of holiday shopping as 140 million americans look to take on the malls and shops across the country. joining us now is gerald storch ceo of hudson's bay. consumers are feeling great,
yeah? >> it's the opening bell of the shopping season. we'll learn a lot moving forward. study came out that said more people plan on shopping on black friday than last year. 59% of the population. >> does the election have a disproportionate impact on that? >> you know, it's hard to say. studies have been out there are kind of mixed on the effect of elections. it shows it affects before the election. this is an unusual post-election period. i think we all agree with that. i think if you look at this, when black friday comes, people will perhaps turn from looking back. >> the psyche of the american consumer, where would you rate it? >> again, the surveys i've seen, deloitte said shopping is going to be up 4% during the season. another says 3.6%. every survey, every study seems to point towards a strong holiday season for retailing. >> and those are post-the
election? does that take into account -- >> sure. the most recent study was very recent. >> is there literally a cause and effect. if consumers think they're going to get a tax cut, they are going to spend more? >> i don't have any idea. what i do know is when black friday comes year after year, more shoppers come out. >> should retailers be concerned not just for this holiday season but looking ahead to next year about the sharp increase we've seen in yields in terms of what it might do to consumer lending and things like that? >> i don't think consumers think like that. if they look at what's in front of them, black friday is about deals. we have a $75 gift card. we spent $150 at saks. $120 off the normal price. that's an amazing gift. that's what consumers think about. >> made the point a couple times this morning about inventories being better imagined this year
than in the last several and the impact that will have on retailers. >> less stuff. >> courtney i think spoke precisely to it. her interview just a little while ago on this network. and last year retailers were caught with too much. it was a joke how warm it was before yis mas. >> it was 70-something on christmas eve. >> all year long you look at the pub establish indices like the index which is how much product is moved from asia to the u.s. >> i don't know you don't necessarily want to talk about stocks but i think back to the financial crisis where inventories were set for 2007 and 2008 comes down like a hammer and everything is 75% off everywhere. are we potentially in the absolute reverse of that? the exact opposite as joe kernen would hate to hear. which is inventories are much lower and everybody's in a much better mood? >> we'll see. i can guarantee you black friday
is about deals. what we're going to see this weekend is incredible prices. and they better be as good as last year. >> does the prospects for a better economy mean better things for department stores? does it reverse this negative trend and the psyche that amazon has killed everybody? >> well, i don't think it's true that amazon's killed everybody. all retailers making strong investments like we have in our internet arms, we opened a new automative distribution center up there. it can process an order in 15 minutes. most robotic facility in the world. and in the future you're going to need bricks and mortar to win. and you see the internet guys starting to add stores. so the winners are going to be those who can meet the customer
with online and store. >> happy thanksgiving this year. >> thank you very much. >> thank you. still to come on "squawk box," we'll tell you why your thanksgiving meal is cheaper this year thanks to slumping prices of turkey, pumpkin pie mix, and milk. you may have saved a few bucks in the grocery. next as we head to break, the futures are pretty much flat. slightly higher for the dow. off of record highs yesterday. we're back in a moment. generosity is its own form of power.
you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. the essentials of your turkey day feast are a bit cheaper this year. the overall price of a traditional thanksgiving dinner including the turkey, pumpkin pie and cranberries fell for the third time in a decade to about $49 for a ten-person meal. that's according to data from the american farm bureau federation. joining us now is john newton, director of marketing intelligence at the american farm bureau federation. this is the 31st year the organization has conducted the survey. good to see you. >> thanks for having me. i appreciate being on. >> what fell in price that actually drove the overall price lower? >> i think the biggest item that fell in price is obviously going to be the bird. in 2015 we saw the most
devastating bird flu outbreak in the united states in decades. which really wiped out a large portion of the turkey flock and the egg laying flock. and to see those flocks come back online this year led to some price relief in that thanksgiving basket. >> i'm looking at almost everything went down in price for the big stuff, right? pumpkin pie mix went down. milk went down. one-pound relish tray went down. i mean, we're talking about cents, seven cents, eight cents but only looks like the only thing that went up a lot was a 12 cent gain in pie shells. >> yeah. when you look at the overall farm economy, you know, we've lost $50 billion in net farm income over the last few years. and that's coming out of dairy farmers' receipts. that's coming out of egg laying farmers' receipts. so you're starting to see those retail prices come down. this year we saw milk prices fall to their lowest level since 2009. and so that led to, you know, a marginal decline in that gallon
of milk folks use on thanksgiving. >> $49.87 for the entire meal sounds very cheap to a new yorker compared to what we have to spend here. how does it spread across the country? >> you know, it does vary across the country. we see, you know, in regions that are going to be more closely aligned with where these products are grown, you're going to see some prices be a little bit cheaper. obviously you're probably not going to be able to put thanksgiving on the table in manhattan for less than $5 a person. but here in d.c. at my local grocery store i have seen prices for the bird at about 99 cents a pound. so i think that aligns with what a lot of folks are paying. and it also aligns with what we see in the data. i mean, the average u.s. consumer spends approximately 6% of their income on food consumed at home, and that's really confirmed in our survey results. >> stepping away a little bit from thanksgiving meal, what are you hearing from farmers in
terms of what they want to see from president-elect trump? >> at this point in time we're in a wait and see mode. there are certainly a lot of issues on the horizon that our farmers and ranchers need to deal with, things like immigration, regulation, trade is a very big component of an agriculture producers income so that's obviously something we're also very focused on. >> john. >> great stuff. said in unison. john, thank you for joining us this morning. >> happy thanksgiving. >> to you as well. still to come, today's top stories. don't miss first on cnbc interview with meg whitman on "squawk on the street" at 9:00 a.m. eastern time. stay tuned. ♪ ♪
is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing) they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful.
the markets change... at t. rowe price... our disciplined approach remains. global markets may be uncertain... but you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. call us or your advisor... t. rowe price. invest with confidence. when you travel, you want your needs to be understood no matter where you go. you want an experience that feels highly personalized. with watson on the ibm cloud, travel companies like wayblazer can apply cognitive analytics to social data to understand what a destination is really like.
and who exactly, it will appeal to. today watson is helping businesses create experiences that revolve around you. because that's what the ibm cloud is built for. welcome back sto "squawk box." look at your screen. check out this photo. trump's senior advisor steve bannon and hillary clinton supporter mark cuban spotted together in new york city yesterday. this is from politico. they said they were spotted together tuesday at a table at the king cold bar at the st. regis in new york. cuban as you know was once a trump fan, says politico, but cooled on him because he had a
complete lack of -- cuban's words. cuban endorsed clinton on air several times as a result and we chatted with him at a number of debates and he stumped for her on the trail. politico tip ster said bannon was taking notes in an orange notebook as cuban spoke. neither replied to a request for comment. but the tipster did send a photo. mark cuban, you can call in any time and tell us what it was that you were telling steve bannon. >> well, there we go. and one gentleman in the foreground enjoying his experience that afternoon as well. >> this is very intriguing. cuban was so, so negative on donald trump. and steve bannon is incredibly controversial figure. >> lots of people kind of crossing the aisle a bit there. most notable of course would be if we saw mitt romney come through as secretary of state. we'll have to wait and see. meantime twitter had a big oops, jack dorsey suspended from the company's network. the co-founder was taken offline by accident following what dorsey called internal mistake. he made light of the situation
when his account said just setting up my twitter, again. referring to the tweet he sent some ten years ago. there we go. >> have a great thanksgiving. >> enjoy your first thanksgiving, wilfred. very excited for you. >> i have no doubt. i'm sure you will too. >> join us friday for "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen, david faber at the new york stock exchange. jim cramer is off today. day before the thanksgiving holiday, attention turning to the consumer and retail after two weeks of outperformance from financials and industrials. watching trump's ongoing transition as well. europe's relatively steady. durables were the surprise of the morning. a 4.8 print