tv Squawk Alley CNBC November 23, 2016 11:00am-12:01pm EST
four gluten-free, egg-free dinner rolls, 6 bucks for four! but the deflation has happened in the turkeys. turkey prices are down. there was an avian flu last year that impacted supplies. this year, the farm bureau federation says the average 16-pound turkey down a little over 1% to $22.74. we paid over $36 for a conventional turkey, and for an organic turkey, almost $62, meaning the price of this was more than the entire average price for this. guys, happy thanksgiving. >> all right, jane. thank you. thank you. thank you! >> you're welcome. >> given it's thanksgiving, i wanted to thank you three times. >> and she does it every year. >> yes. >> her thanksgiving schedule. we'll be back on friday, black friday. now to carl for "squawk alley." good morning. it is 8:00 a.m. out west, 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live. ♪
♪ whoo-hoo ♪ whoo-hoo ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk alley," carl quintanilla with jon fortt and kayla tausche and ceo daniel rosenswag, former chief operating officer at yahoo! also from one market, "the new york times" tech correspondent mike isaac. mike, good morning to you as well. our top story is facebook reportedly developing this new censorship tool designed to persuade china to allow the social network to re-enter the world's second biggest economy. that is according to the "times." facebook has been banned in china for the last seven years. mike, you broke this story, and it raises all kinds of questions
about what they're capable of in terms of screening content, and now increasing what they're willing to do. >> yeah, that's exactly right. i think the biggest point here is just the fact that facebook is even considering some form of censorship in order to get back into china. the sort of general knowledge or general belief among a lot of western internet companies shares a lot of american values, which is essentially that speech and free speech is very important, and you know, business may come at a cost of sort of defending that. but facebook is thinking a little more pragmatically. i think mark zuckerberg, his belief is if you can get at least some version of facebook, even if it's a handicapped version of facebook, into the country, that's better than no facebook at all. >> dan, we saw microsoft, google, amazon, yahoo! all tried to do business in china, tried to make tweaks to their business in order to operate there, and then having to dial back or exit completely. do you think facebook can do it? >> no.
i hope that they can. look, the chinese government will control what they want to have there, you know. when we did the alibaba deal at yahoo! the reason we did it was the chinese government was very clear -- can't do any communication, can't do any content, media, but we love e-commerce, and that's how we ended up working with alibaba and getting into those negotiations. this is a very slippery slope. i absolutely appreciate the fact that companies like facebook, like any company, needs to follow the laws of every country they're in, or you can't be in that country. so, there's nothing wrong with following the laws. the question is what's the definition of censorship? which is, if you're going to turn over communication, private communication between individuals on messenger or whatsapp, i don't think that's anything they would ever consider doing. but if it's a matter of what kind of content gets to be put through the news feed, that may be something that everybody can live with. but you know, we're learning in the united states, which is, what is censorship, what isn't, what is fake news, what is real
news. these are complicated issues, but i just don't imagine that it's going to be successful because you're going to have to have chinese advertisers support it, chinese government support it, and i mean, jon, you know this. >> yeah, it's true, but mike, i'm wondering, how slippery is this slope for facebook? i mean, more and more in the u.s. people are calling on facebook to exercise more control over the types of content that appear. we've been talking about fake news. we've been talking about all that kinds of stuff, hate speech. now china wants this as well. if you look across social media and you have to build in the resources, whether they are human or otherwise, to answer all these requests, how do these companies look different in a year or two? >> you know, i think it's really difficult. part of the big challenge for any western company to enter china is that you need an entity -- and dan probably knows about this -- you need a sort of middle man entity that will deal with the chinese government and that the chinese really trusts. so it's much more complicated
than just facebook going in. you can look at linkedin as sort of this example where they partnered with i believe sequoia's arm in china and they were used as a middle man there. i think linkedin is less threatening to the chinese just in terms of the content that circulates there, but facebook, you know, they continue to promote itself as like a platform for free speech in the united states. mark has gone through this real firestorm over fake news, and it's hard to see how they're going to come off as non threatening to the chinese in terms of speech without sort of maintaining the stance they have over here. >> but mike, what the chinese government fears the most is something going viral. they fear an uprising like the arab spring, which took place largely on twitter. and something going viral seems to be just in facebook's dna. i mean, there was a documentary about air pollution in china that went viral on weibo, and
the government removed it, but not after a level of outrage was hit. i'm wondering how you remove the viral nature of facebook, if that's where the fear is coming from? >> i mean, here's the thing, facebook is a well-oiled, fine-tuned machine to embrace virality. that's their whole business model. that's what news feed depends on in order to keep people coming back. and you know, as we figured out with the past month of fake news stories, engagement is king for facebook. they need you to be in the news feed all the time. so, to think of a world in which facebook has to tamp down that sort of virality, especially to appease another state is hard to really imagine. >> meanwhile, guys, as facebook and twitter and google make efforts to fight against trolling and hate crime, just this week the advertising network app nexus, the second
highest grossing automated ad network for news behind google had definitely banned breitbart news from using its software saying they violated hate speech standards. i'm curious, from an engineering standpoint, what's harder, sensoring stuff the government doesn't want to see or things you think factually might not be 100% correct. that's a tough one, right? >> there are two questions -- what's harder technologically and what's harder in terms of making that decision? so, if you're going to eliminate things that someone else obligates you to eliminate, that's much easier, because they define it, you build it, and that's fine. >> you start closing pipes. >> right. and now, what these guys apparently have done is said we're going to ban a particular news source. so, that's one news source versus another news source, you know. this is where the real slippery slope in the united states of america comes in, which is, there's a difference between fake news, which is false information, which isn't censorship. it's eliminating lies that are false information that could be
verified. then there is different points of view, of which to some appears like hate speech, to some doesn't, and that's much harder to do, and that is the thing that will open one a country so divided, that's going to open up a whole lot of business issues. businesses are learning, which is, the more they stand up for what they believe in, which is something i think they should do, there are consequences to that, good and bad. >> sure. >> and that's what app nexus is going to learn. >> speaking of social networks, some different news. eu regulators are expected to give conditional clearance to microsoft's $26 billion takeover of linkedin. this is according to reuters. there were some conditions attached to this deal. primarily, competitors were concerned about outlook. microsoft has outlook. it's used for communication, not only within companies but between companies. linkedin, of course, is expected to augment that. the concern was, if you put
these two pieces together, will microsoft lock out others from having access to this information and being able to communica communicate. these concessions should prevent that from happening, microsoft moving to open up outlook more to competitors, and with that sort of move, this is expected to clear eu regulators, and that deal altogether is expected to come together pretty soon, guys. >> yeah, i didn't imagine there was going to be any challenge between linkedin and microsoft. i mean, outlook's outlook. linkedin doesn't necessarily help it or hurt it. this is about the data. this is about a channel in to businesses. this is about enterprise. it's not really necessarily about the communication tools. i don't think. >> but that said, if you connect the two of them -- and mike, i don't know if you want to weigh in on any as wethis as well if still with us -- part of the idea behind this is you're able to use outlook to communicate but augment it with the information on linkedin about who you're connected to so you're able to get sales leads better that way, you're able to
see people's expertise and skills. i mean, how does this concession, if at all, affect the value of linkedin to microsoft? >> yeah, i think that's a really good point. i think part of nadella's sort of philosophy around the acquisition of linkedin is just there are very few networks in the u.s., sort of social networks, that tie a lot of this information together and provide a context for large companies on this sort of network we have, especially in the professional world. that's part of why sales force was interested in twitter. that's part of why facebook was trying to buy snapchat back in the day. so i think it can be a potentially powerful tool for outlook. it seems like they sort of, as you said, have given enough concessions to avoid that sort of block. but i think the main point is, there really are fewer sort of big networks that have this sort of information, and i think you'll probably see a little bit more consolidation over the
years. >> i just hope that linkedin stops asking me to endorse people for microsoft skills. i don't know how well any of these people use powerpoint. >> they'll still be waiting for our response. >> jon, i'd like for you to confirm your outlook skills and excel skills because i'm not going to endorse you until i see it. >> i'm actually not that good at it, compared to the people on the floor. don't endorse me. we are watching shares of hpe this morning. they reported adjusted profit in line with expectations, sales coming in above estimates. earlier this morning we spoke to company ceo meg whitman on her take on growth prospects and a donald trump presidency. >> h1b visas are very important to the technology industry, and if those visas were limited dramatically, we'd have to rethink how we did r&d. >> obviously a lot to think about. >> that's a big issue. >> some surprise upside performance in pcs, although offset by printing revenue, but that was curious, too. >> yeah.
look, the businesses are continuing to use notebooks, pcs and servers. and you know, given the base in which they're starting from, which is much smaller than it used to be, it's not surprising. plus, she is an extraordinary ceo. so, that doesn't surprise me. but it's not like it's big growth, right? it's just slower decline of the growth than people thought. the bigger issue is the visa one, because i think there's a complete misunderstanding of this, which is, you know, president-elect trump believes that people are using it to get low-cost labor. there is nobody in silicon valley hiring low-cost labor. silicon valley has a particular issue, which is they need certain skills. they would take them from anywhere in the world. united states of america would be their preference for cultural reasons and language reasons and other things. but even with the people that are getting these visas, there are tens of thousands of open jobs in silicon valley. so it's not like we're putting low-cost people in. >> but dan, what about this "the new york times" story, i believe it was, earlier in the year, and
disney specifically clearing out a big chunk of the i.t. workforce, american i.t. workforce working on disney world and bringing in h1b workers to replace them and expecting the american workers to train them? those sorts of stories are going to stick in people's heads and say, well, silicon valley can say they're not doing that, but it's not just silicon valley that's doing this. there are companies now across the economy, everybody says they're a tech company. >> look, i believe that if you abuse any of the rules that we have that there should be a consequence of it, but that's not what i'm talking about. i'm talking about the fact that if you look at my company or any other company, we need engineers, we need data scientists. you know -- go back to linkedin. look up the number of open jobs. it's not like 100. it's tens of thousands. so these are not people being replaced by low-cost workers. you see the price of engineers. you see the price of data scientists, you know. it's really complicated to do. i would love for american colleges to graduate more people with these capabilities. unfortunately, they're not changing their curriculum fast enough or at all.
so we need the collective wisdom. also, we don't want to be a country that blocks the best and the brightest from coming in and building their fortunes here. otherwise, you're going to force, as meg said, the larger companies to go hire people with these skills in other countries, and they don't want to because it's more difficult. it's actually more expensive. it's not cheaper. >> yeah, something that the president-elect has actually sided with in past interviews. we're going to see how he follows through. >> well, he's been on both sides of that issue, as he has on several. but i think when you get the facts, you know, our hope for every president is they make good decisions based on the facts, and i'm sure he will as well. >> dan, mike, good to have you guys, especially together. thanks so much. happy thanksgiving. >> thank you very much. >> thanks. happy thanksgiving. when we come back, we're going to track the ongoing trump rally. the markets coming off their highs, but the dow, of course, setting a record high again. what's in store for the holiday season? then, from drones to vr, black friday's only two days away. we'll talk to the ceo of brookstone about the hot holiday items. later on, why black friday
speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet?
comcast business. built for speed. built for business. the dow and the russell 2000 breaking out to fresh all-time highs this morning. mike san tolo is at post 9 with more. mike, we talk about the round numbers, 19,000 for the dow, 3% for the 30-year and the russell hitting a nearly 20-year -- or having a nearly 20-year winning
streak. >> yes. >> does it matter? >> and there was another round number with the russell. not a lot of people talk about russell 1300, but that was an all-time high. it matters in determining the character of this rally. i think there's a risk, though, of round number blindness, which is, you look at 19,000, even 2,200 on the s&p, all these things make it seem -- even 100 on the dollar index -- make it seem maybe like markets have traveled a lot farther and faster than they have. the dow's up 5.5% in almost two years. the s&p 500, yes, it's had a nice move, but it's still high single digits in terms of price for the year. the dollar's really only up a little bit over the last 12 months and treasury yields have retraced. to me, it says the ongoing trends maybe have a little longer to go potentially. >> it's so in vogue to be bullish, but investor intelligence says bulls are currently 55.9% of the market. once you hit 60%, it's basically time to get defensive. >> yes. >> how long does that take? >> these are the newsletter
writers, investment newsletter writers. it could take days. but let's be honest, it's not an awful lot of newsletter writers in this sample size, so 5% of that sample is hyped, but that doesn't mean the rally's over and the market's going it fall apart. it means be careful of entry points, be mindful of the fact that it won't take much to spark a short-term sell-off. we did spend a lot of late 2014-2015 with this indicator in the danger zone. i want to look at actual flows. you want to see if you have another huge week of inflows into stock funds out of bond funds. that's been something that's been going on. >> how much do you worry about tech lagging behind? because let's face it, we're living in a tech-driven society now. the growth should come from there. if it doesn't, can the rest of the markets continue to run or do they tap out at a certain point? >> well, i think, jon, when you just look at the weightings in the broad indexes of megacap tech, it's tremendous. it's basically not just about
how much it is for the total index but the very largest companies, the most widely owned companies are going to be in that sector. obviously, apple, amazon, facebook. i do think there's a concern that it's not just about a sentiment shift short term, saying, oh, we don't like the big, software-based platform glamour stocks, we like semiconductors, which look a lot more like industrials. i think you have to wonder if it's something more fundamental, something about those businesses being out of favor in the new world, whether it's because of policy, net neutrality or other things, or if it's as i said, a temporary shift in the kinds of stocks people are buying today. >> we'll see how the volume looks this week. traditionally a lowish volume week given the holiday week. gold also on the move this morning. jackie deangelis is at the nymex. >> a $33 range in gold prices today. $1,214 the session high. $1,181 the session low. you have a dollar index near
$1.02, pushing gold prices down, a strong equity session as well, and of course, the threat that this rate increase will come at the end of the year. some of the data that we've seen indicating that we could see it in december. of course, gold is a hedge when it comes to uncertainty, so some are saying now that we've broken through this 1,200 range, we could rally back up, but it is taken the gold miners down with it today and the gld as well. so keep an eye on gold prices. back to you. >> all right, thanks. as we count down to black friday, retail has been on a wild ride. take a look at the action this week alone. and coming up, why the black friday belts might not be over yet, which is good, because it's only wednesday. we'll be right back. ♪ ♪ ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature?
goldsmith. steven, i was hoping you'd be wearing those arianna headphones that you brought with you, but i guess we can't have anything. >> they wouldn't look as good on me. >> what are going to be the hits this year, drones? i see hoverboards. >> at brookstone, we focus on fun and entertainment, sleep and wellness, and travel. arianna's a perfect example of that. bluetooth, wireless. you could broadcast from the ears. you could keep them on your head. you could take a phone call from android or iphones. and they're associated with ariana grande, which she's associated with cat ears her whole career. >> so much of the brookstone product portfolio is tactile. you want to sit in the massage chair. you want to feel it before you buy it. how do you translate that to internet shoppers? >> it's interesting. the ultimate experience is to come into one of our 220 locations in the united states, but we also translate it with great video content online, where you're able to really experience it, teach you how
shiatsu works, how the heat works, how the tapping works, and then come into the store also and experience it. >> how does mobile and this drive to sort of buy things even on thanksgiving from home come into play with brookstone, which many of us know from the mall? and then where do you go kind of product innovationwise? we see the ariana grande cat ear headphones. again, not showing a bald guy. but there's lots of stuff in there. it's one of the stores where you have to stop if you're walking through the mall. what do you do in this era where so much is driven by the phone? >> we enable the customer. if she's in the store, doesn't want to purchase in the store, wants to buy from her phone, the tablet. any which way she wants to engage with us, we're ready to engage with her. >> how much of your sales is coming from digital and mobile right now? >> it's been growing at double digits and is well more than a quarter of our sales now. we do a tremendous amount of business in our stores because of that exactly to experience it, but our internet business
and all of our online activities are in double digits right now. >> because so many shoppers come in just curious, right, and try stuff and leave, is the conversion of traffic to sales low relative to other retailers? >> it's interesting, if i looked at it purely that way, it's true. people in the old days would say foot traffic and, oh, the conversion of foot traffic. that doesn't matter anymore, right? come in, experience it, love it. don't buy in the store. it's fine. listen, we're going to react to you, we're going to follow up with you. so you're absolutely right, the pure conversion metrics of the '90s are over. >> but outdated. >> yeah, i think so. >> but you were early in that game. >> but you know, it's also, when people say conversion metrics online and they say sessions, who cares? i only care once you're looking at a product. >> you sell a lot of the same products as macy's and as amazon. >> yes. >> but you have been heavily discounting them. i'm thinking of the big blue party speaker, which you're selling for more than $100 less than macy's. is that how you're competing against them? >> in big blue, we have a whole generation. we go from big blue party to
wi-fi to streaming, and as we introduce a new product, we reduce the price of the old product. it's a franchise for us. we love our relationships with both macy's and amazon. they're great partners with us. >> so, it's not just a competitive pricing environment where you're trying to underprice them? >> not at all. not at all. >> can't let you go without asking about drones, "star wars" in particular. a lot of people expecting to see millennium falcons, cool gear flying around, maybe around brookstone. when are we going to see it? >> i'm going to answer your question two ways, jon. first, drones are huge, right? so, drones with hd recording, drones that are able to do acrobatics, drones that battle with each other. and these battling drones and our drones at brookstone are huge sellers. they are up more than double digits over last year. you know, with regards to an opportunity with a "star wars" franchise, you know, i'm going to -- we'll talk about that a lot more next week, and i think december's going to be awesome. and that's all i'm going to say right now as we have a great partnership with disney on that. >> steven, thanks for coming in. we'll let you get back to one of
those massage chairs. >> great. thanks so much. >> you can leave the headphones on. >> i will. i will. an inside look at the data investors and retailers will be watching this season. we'll talk with foursquare and the ceo. first, courtney reagan is live at macy's flagship in midtown manhattan. she's asking the question, is shopping on thanksgiving actually worth it? cdw brought i.t. orchestration to growing businesses across the city, increasing productivity like never before, which is amazing, unless you're a barista. cdw implemented dell poweredge servers with intel xeon processors to allow people to work from anywhere, so lucky me. so nobody wants coffee?! hey, can i get a couple copies? enhanced mobility by dell. i.t. orchestration by cdw.
good morning, everyone. i'm sue herera. here is your "cnbc news update." hour. a wayne state university police officer is in critical condition after being shot in the head while on patrol in detroit. police say they have a person of interest in custody, but so far, no charges have been filed. the dalai lama says he is looking forward to meeting donald trump. speaking in mongolia today, the tibetan spiritual leader went on to say the president-elect will have to work according to reality now that the election is over. eli lilly dropping plans to market a once promising alzheimer's drug after recent trial results showed it did little to slow memory loss in dementia patients. and this play from the legendary 1951 national league championship game between the brooklyn dodgers and the giants became known as the shot heard around the world.
>> the giants win the pennant! the giants win the pennant! the giants win the pennant! >> ralph branca, the dodgers' all-star pitcher who gave up that winning home run died today at the age of 90. that is the "cnbc news update." back downtown to "squawk alley." kayla, back to you. >> thanks so much, sue. markets about to close in the uk and across europe, just happened a few minutes ago. a mixed session for stocks today. on the economic front, eurozone composite pmi jumping to its highest level of the year, spurred by manufacturing activity. the euro's decline against the u.s. dollar continues, falling to lows not seen since april of last year. meantime, the eu proposing changes to banking rules, adding extra requirements for systemically important banks to boost capital. the measures also called for u.s. and other non-eu banks to set upholding companies within europe. the stoxx 600 banks index up 5% since the u.s. election. finally, uk guilt yields
rising after chancellor phil hammond announced spending plans aimed at boosting the economy and upgrading britain's infrastructure. 10-year gilts yielding 1.46%. $28 billion in seven-year notes up for auction just moments ago. we have the results. for that we turn to rick at the cme. rick? >> reporter: finally, i get to give an "a"! an "a" as in apple. this seven-year note auction was really strong. what was the yield at auction? 2.215%. the one issue market was trading. lower yield, higher price always a good thing and that's tha gets a heavy marker with respect to that "a" grade. let's go through the rest. 2.68 to cover best since 2014, 70.287 on indirects. truly i couldn't find a higher number. remember, seven-years are kind of new. we haven't had them that long. to me, that looks like the best ever. in the directs, 9.4 was a little
light for the 13% ten auction average. primary dealers only get 18%. so no matter how you slice it, it's an qu. why? well, "a," it's the languagest maturity. that probably helps, divorce yourself a little from the short end. that's subservient to the fed tightening. maybe that's come in december. but maybe they're betting treasuries have run too fast and they're going to back up. we'll wait and see, but it's an "a" auction, nonetheless. jon fortt, back to you. >> thanks, rick, we'll take it. as we count down to the official start of the holiday season, some retailers are asking if opening their doors on thanksgiving is even worth it. let's get to courtney reagan in midtown manhattan with more. >> reporter: hi there, jon. that's right. so, after years of retailers opening earlier and earlier, some stores are reversing course and closing altogether, including the country's largest shopping center, the mall of america, along with 72 regional malls operated by cbl & associates. now, they say it's to give their employees the day off and enjoy
the holiday, but analysts say that's not the full story. shopper track data on stores open on thanksgiving over the last five years shows that opening before black friday doesn't necessarily improve overall holiday performance. instead it redistributes when customers shop. but it is really hard for retailers to close, especially if competitors are open. >> it would be very unusual for a retailer of any consequence to open on thanksgiving day and not have that be a net-net profitable decision, even if you don't believe that those sales are incremental and profitable, as a retail ceo, you may still decide to stay open on thanksgiving day because you don't want to give up that market share to one of your competitors. >> reporter: now, retailers' dilemma is not lost on consumers, many of which are also conflicted. >> the year that i left old navy was the first year that they opened on thanksgiving, and that
was a major reason for me wanting to leave. i was really upset about having to work thanksgiving, but sometimes the deals are so good. i have two little kids now, so i hate it, but i love it. it's kind of a hard thing. >> reporter: now look, if no one shopped, the stores wouldn't open, but the fact of the matter is, some 29 million americans are expected to shop on thanksgiving day. it's really hard for a retailer to close their doors on those consumers that are willing to come out and open their wallets. back to you guys. >> all right. thanks, courtney. i don't know about you, but i am not shopping in a store on thanksgiving, anyway. maybe with my phone. moving on, black friday is just two days away. our next guest is predicting where you're going to find shoppers this season. foursquare's data shows that over 50% of last-minute shoppers are above the age of 45, while millennials are more proactive. who says those kids are lazy? so, with a mixed bag of shoppers and many deals to scour, how many are going to go in store and what day should we expect the biggest crowds? jeff glick is the ceo of
foursquare and joins us here at post 9. hey, jeff, great to have you. >> thanks. glad to be back. >> so, is shopping now more of the type of experience that millennials are after? and when should i go to the store and avoid all the millennials? is there a great day of the year when i can get a deal but avoid the crowds? >> well, black friday is no longer the biggest shopping day of the year. it's really become more of a marathon than a sprint, as the previous segment covered. so, we're actually seeing black friday last year as the fifth most popular day. so, there's lots of days coming up. the most popular days, if you want to avoid the crowds, the two saturdays before christmas eve are going to be the biggest days of the year. so there's millions of procrastinators. they'll be waiting for those final saturdays, and those will be the longest lines. >> okay, so don't do that. now, how much is online shopping influencing the way people shop in stores? so, those last days before the holiday are really popular.
are they really popular because people know, if i didn't get it online, i've got to go in store then, whereas before maybe people's mind-set was different? or does your data perhaps illuminate that at all? >> well, i think there's still lots of reasons why 92% of spending happens in the physical world. as fast as e-commerce is growing, some 15% a year, it's still 92% offline, if you include groceries and autos and big categories, including retail. so, what we're seeing is, there's still, although e-commerce is growing and the convenience is great, avoid the crowds, avoid the parking lots, there are lots of reasons customers love physical shopping. you get to touch the goods, try them on, the serendipity, kids sit on santa's lap. i mean, there's all these fun reasons to still go shopping. it is a social activity. then there is the worry the last few days that the gifts won't get there in time if you have a long list of items to fill out. >> in new york, the christmas creep started weeks, if not over a month ago, and the deals seem
to accompany the decorations that were popping up in the windows. does traffic show that that worked for retailers? >> so, we're forecasting for black friday being down about 3.5% year over year. looking at the last two months, kayla. and so, the good news for brick-and-mortar retailers is that last year was a disaster. we saw double-digit declines, thanks to e-commerce eating into their foot traffic. this year it's stabilizing. they're not having a party, let's be clear, but they're doing much better. so, 3.5% is the foot traffic decline that we think will carry forward for black friday, and that's based on the last two months of foot traffic to physical stores. some categories are going to do better than that and some are going to do worse. >> you've done research on trump brands and foot traffic. you did some a few months ago and we talked about it at the time. >> yes. >> what did that say? remind us. and what are your expectations now that he's been elected? >> so, going back, foursquare has about 50 million users who use the foursquare app to find great places around the world
and who play the swarm game, who check in, become the local mayor of their bar or hobby shop. so we've developed the technology that says when phones move in and out of hundreds of businesses and places throughout the world. we did a story looking at what happened to trump-branded hotels, casinos and resorts because they were primarily in blue states was the issue. he did fine in purple states and red states, but we had a polarized electorate, and it actually particularly affected women foot traffic into trump-branded properties. so that said, going forward, the markets seem to be pretty excited these days, so we'll all be watching closely what actually happens. >> who's the mayor of trump tower right now? >> that's a good question. >> do you know that off the top of your head? >> i don't know. that's a good question. i haven't been over to check. >> any surprise retail locations that are doing well this time of year that you might not have expected? >> yeah, absolutely. apropos of the election, we're seeing this kind of bifurcation in the economy, right, so discount and big-box stores as a category are doing much better. so target and walmart in particular. big lots we're calling as a big
winner this year, as consumers look for discounts. another big winner so far in the last two months has been dollar tree. people looking, again, for as the middle class gets hollowed out or feels a little hollowed out, people are looking for great deals. the other extreme is that in department stores, a category that i said is doing very poorly, we're seeing that down 7% year over year the last couple months -- in department stores, the high-end retailers, neiman marcus, saks, lord & taylor, are doing much better than the category overall, and i think that speaks to a bit of the dynamic that we saw in the election that you see affluent shoppers picking up, you see budget-hunters, people with stressed incomes hunting out for that. and so, that middle, classic department store is getting squeezed. >> inequality even in holiday shopping. well, jeff glueck, ceo of foursquare, thanks for joining us. >> thanks. >> and happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving to all of you. when we come back, why snapchat's ipo filing is fueling
for and the ones that have them crying foul. that's top of the hour, noon eastern on "the halftime report." carl, see you in about 15. >> long day for you, judge. see you in about 15 minutes. let's get to the cme group, rick santelli and "the santelli exchange." >> hi, carl. i want to talk about 10-year rates, but first, the tip of the price-berg. lots of people, including kelly evans dad wanted to talk about the break-evens. take 238 and you subtract the 10-year tips yield, which is 44 right now. you come up with a break-even of 194. that's kind of the break-even inflation rate. by the way, that is running at the highest level since october of 2014. the reason i'm bringing it up is just so you can see how it do it. it's actually quite easy. but the most important issue, why we look at this, is because it gives an accurate glimpse of the future. and i say maybe. maybe with a big asterisk. whether it's fed fund futures or this, there's too many assumptions here. the main assumption here is that
this is where it's supposed to be after all the thumbs on the scale and that the tips market, which is finally starting to get liquid also has its own issues, not the least of which is it's complicated pricing. so, is it accurate? probably accurate in the terms of its direction in trend, but that's where i think it ends. remember, if your room's at 50 and you set your thermostat at 70, it's got to go through 51, 52, 53, and it's that dynamic that's going to happen fast as we get true pricing. in terms of where it's going to go, here's the level that got away, 2.62. and i'll tell you why it's so important and why it could happen so fast. the taper tantrum was huge. it was basically may of '14. when we look at the fact that we went from a bottom on may 1st to 1.63, rallied it up about 100 basis points, and then we made a double bottom at 1.64. that's huge. so, the last top before the double bottom is significant, and that happened to have been
2.62. i think that level should have been hit earlier in the year because i'm a technician, and that's the way it timed out, but many of these levels come back to haunt you. does that mean we're going to close there? i personally don't think so, but that is by far and away your big, glaring resistance above the market with small stuff in the low 2.40s. kayla, back to you. >> rick santelli. rick, thank you. coming up on "squawk alley," how google is working to stop cyber scammers ahead of black friday, and more importantly, cyber monday. "squawk alley" will be right back. ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing)
ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. at the marine mammal center, the environment is everything. we want to do our very best for each and every animal, and we want to operate a sustainable facility. and pg&e has been a partner helping us to achieve that. we've helped the marine mammal center go solar, install electric vehicle charging stations, and become more energy efficient. pg&e has allowed us to be the most sustainable organization we can be. any time you help a customer, it's a really good feeling. it's especially so when it's a customer that's doing such good and important work for the environment. together, we're building a better california.
>> it's an eventful time for tech. the trump rally boosting expectations on the private side. companies and investors looking at possible exits buoyed by snaps, recent ipo filing. the social media company is now number two in a cb insights ranking of the fastest private companies to reach the billion dollar valuation mark, which also gets them in the unicorn club. jeremy lu, partner at light speed general partners and early snap chat investor. it's great to have you back. nice spectacles. >> i'm looking forward to using them over thanksgiving with the family. >> the marketing i was looking at usa today this morning. they have a list of -- in tech -- winners and losers. losers are the galaxy note 7 and go pro drones. speck tacks is on the list of winners, largely because of the way it's bin marketeen marketed.
>> the roll-out through the vending machines has been a very popular and i think a good way to get them in the hands of the super fans. >> as we talk about the company and exits, one big play for you has been on-line retail. obviously through binobos and honest. how much more do we have to run? >> we just listened jeff talking about how the traditional retailers are seeing softening. i think we got a lot of room to run there. >> jeremy, i wonder your perspective on the marketing of spectacles. you say it's an egalatarian way to roll them out, these vending machines. middle america will have a hard time getting them. this strikes me as a g mail limited availability way to get demand pumped up, get people
talking about snap in an innovation context. where do you think it goes from here, and how important is this product really for the sort of growth and engagement that investors are going to want to see from snap at snap chat? >> i think it's been characterized as a toy at first, and they are certainly fun to play with, but, you know, as we are seeing them rolling out all across america from the bottom of the grand canyon to big sur to the middle of the country and more recently in new york i think a lot of people are getting an opportunity to play with these things, and i think they're going to have as much fun with them as i'm having. zhoo how sustainable do you think the usage of pakistanles will be, jeremy, because the demand is coming from the fact that people want to be able to get their hands on them. they want to be seen wearing them because they are so limited, but how long do you think people will actually be using spectacles as a way to actually record hands-free video and share stories to their snap
chat followers? >> well, i certainly feel a little strange wearing sunglasses indoors, but i really do enjoy using them, and i think that it has, you know, helped me be more in the moment and more present, so rather than having a phone held up between me and whatever it is that i'm experiencing, just being able to touch the spectacles and have them record immediately without anything intermediating between me and my experience. it's been terrific. i've been enjoying it, and like i said, i'm looking forward to thanksgiving with the family and using these to capture some of the special moments. >> yeah. all those heated conversations around the table at thanksgiving. jeremy, you know, we're waiting for snap's ipo. reported valuation between $20 billion, how have private market valuations responded to records across the board in the public stock market after the election? >> you know, i think it's pretty early since the election and
things happen slowly in the private markets, but we have seen some terrific ipo's. you know, companies like nutanix and many others that have all done very well so far this year, and i think the market continues to do well. i'm hopeful we'll see more companies going public next year. >> i thought you were going to take those off, but you're not. clearly not going to take those off. are you snapping us right now? >> i think you probably have noticed that i did record them a little bit earlier, and that was from the little light ring was glowing, and so now i'm going to have a record of me looking directly into a camera lens for my snaps. >> we're definitely in a meta-environment now. happy thanksgiving. good to see you. jeremy lu. >> happy thanksgiving to you. >> dow is up 28. we'll be right back. my hygienist said the most random thing. she said i should think of my teeth like an apple. it could be great on the outside not so great on the inside. her advice? use a toothpaste and mouthwash that strengthens both.
go pro with crest pro-health advanced. it's uniquely formulated with activestrength technology to strengthen teeth inside and is better at strengthening the outside than colgate total. crest toothpaste and mouthwash makes my whole mouth feel amazing. advance to healthier gums and stronger teeth from day one. my check-up was great. crest. healthy, beautiful smiles for life.
adam of malware bytes that builds nexgen security software says there are new scams to watch out for. for example, he says criminals are now posing as amazon. they send emails including phony order numbers. they contain attachments. if victims open that attachment up, they get infected with ransomware, which is extortion, clear and simple. they lock your files and threaten to reveal data, including your most personal information if you don't pay up. now, in order to try and protect consumers during the holidays, big tech is also stepping up. for example, since october 1st google has now disabled more than 200 million bad ads such as counterfeit goods and misleading drugs. tried and true scams during the holidays include fake shopping web sites, spear fishing and also social media scams where criminals pose as your friends on facebook and send you a link that contains malware. gary davis of intel security says consumers should use anti-virus and anti-spam software, but he also recommends
a simpler solution. pause. consider what you are seeing in that inbox, and think before you click. guys, back to you. >> all right. thanks, josh. coming up at 2:00 p.m., the next episode of fort knox will be on facebook live in periscope. we'll be talking about shopping strategy ahead of black friday. lots of other stuff. see you there. >> all right. let's get over to wapner and "the half." ♪ welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. the top trade this hour, the state of the trump rally and why some say it is now at serious risk. joe tear nrra nova with us --