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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  November 23, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EST

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>> early next week it is all about retail, retail. that's what the conversation is going to be about. strength of the consumer, strength of the retail, what are the numbers. >> you said it feels as though maybe things have changed a bit. >> i think it has. i think there is confidence right now, i think there is optimism. >> good stuff. have a great thanksgiving. >> thank you. >> "power" starts now. ♪ we are family hi, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen. battered and bruised, i'm not battered and bruised, but pharma and biotech are. and that is what tops your menu, one stock down 5%, another 12%, and another down 30%. that would be battered and bruised. all right, countdown to black friday, but it is not what it used to be. we will get your shop on. just minutes from now. and thanksgiving, the super bowl for this retail chain, see if you can guess which one, sales expected to double this week.
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the ceo will join us live. "power lunch" starts right now. and welcome to "power lunch." i'm melissa lee. the bulls on wall street feeling good going to turkey day because the trump rally is marching on. dow and russell 2000 hitting new highs today. gold falling to its lowest level in nine months. the dollar index, highest level in more than 13 years. number of stocks trading all time highs today, darden, boeing and our parent company comcast among them. we have a lot of financials at new highs as well, including bank of america, citigroup, citizens financial, and e-trade. >> i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. here's what else is happening at this hour. reports that facebook is building a censorship tool that could persuade china to allow the social media giant back into the country after a seven-year ban. mortgage rates climbing again, rising above 4%, people applying for mortgages surging more than 5%. and a judge blocking president
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obama's rule to extend mandatory overtime pay to more than 4 million salaried workers. we'll have much more on that coming up. we begin with big pharma and biotech getting slammed now. juneau therapeutics down by almost 30% after two patients died during a midstage trial of a cancer drug. the experimental treatment was designed to treat a certain kind of leukemia. eli lilly getting hammered after the late stage trial of alzheimer's drug failed to achieve its goal. let's bring in robin cranowskis. i think viewers and investors will remember that juneau's -- this study, halted before because that drug had been tested in combination with a chemotherapy drug and then within a week, the fda said, go ahead, go back at the trial. now what? is there hope for j-carr 14. >> there is hope. this company has a life saving drug with high cure rates and
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treating patients with a short life span. so we think that the high efficacy of this drug as well as the high mortality seem normal with these patients will allow this drug to get used and approved. this is just a short setback. the company is trying to figure out how to develop this drug in the safest way possible. >> what are the steps forward? what is the path forward for juneau at this point? does the fda have to, you know, give it the green light to resume this study? >> the fda has to give it a green light to resume. there is three options. they can modify the trials, start a new one or terminate the program. we're going to have to wait for a week or two at least to figure out what the real option or the real path forward for this company is. we think most likely they'll develop this drug and even if they don't, they have other drugs in their pipeline, bigger drugs like j-carr 17 they're developing for a bigger indication that will move forward and be on the market eventually. >> back in july, there were two, three deaths because of that study, resumed the study, two deaths this week because of
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cerebral edema. are there doubts about the therapy at this point? all the stocks in the sector are taking a beating today on the news. >> correct, look, anytime you have deaths in cancer trials there are doubts. but i think that investors really understand that these are patients who would be, you know, very high mortality rates, they have a very short time to live, and the drug is offering them a cure. so these drugs are likely to get to market, even if they have some degree of safety issues or some degree of toxicity associated with them. there are things that the company can do to modify toxicity. they can lower the dose. they can slow the rates of cells that are given into the body. so there are things they can do to limit the toxicity and we have seen with other companies that developed therapies that that might be successful. >> a buy rating high risk on this stock. >> buy rating high risk. >> thanks for your time. >> to eli lilly, that stock
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plunging 12% after its late stage trial of an alzheimer's drug failed to achieve its goals. the ceo was on "squawk box" this morning. >> you should expect we're going to look carefully at the results. that will take weeks or months to really ferret out all of the information in this study that involved more than 2,000 patients, learn everything we can from this trial and go back and apply that to the other development programs we have. >> we have been planning for our future with or without solar for some time. we knew it was a high risk and high reward program. we're disappointed with the result, but we have a lot going on beyond alzheimer's. >> here to talk about the broader implications of alzheimer's drugs in the industry is ronnie gall, senior analyst at bernstein. good to have you here. >> pleasure. >> so is there hope for alzheimer's drugs at this point? how serious a setback is this? many people who are looking for some kind of cure or something
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that would slow down the cognitive decline were hopeful and this is a real setback. >> clearly a setback because we are not going to have therapy for those folks for a couple of more years. but maybe it is worth it to take a step back and understand the drugs and what they're trying to do. having plaques of beta in the brain is somehow on the path of developing alzheimer's. and the question is what do you do? the plaques begin to appear on the brain 20 years before you actually get alzheimer's. and then when you begin to show signs, what you try to do is somehow reduce the burden and hope it works. what they tried to do is try to remove them out and that's not good enough to give you a meaningful effect on the patient. however, there was signs of a positive effect that lilly referred to in the press release and the appearance on the show.
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and now two more attempts to try to target the same approach in different i wa different ways. one is inhibitors that try to prevent the formation of beta. >> can you slow down for one second. let's translate for one second. plaque in the brain is a characteristic of alzheimer's. you can either stop it from growing in the first place, you can try to bind it and isolate it once it is there, or you can try to remove it. and this one tried to isolate it and sort of detoxify it. do we think because of the failure of this to show meaningful implications that is a path that shouldn't be used anymore and we should focus on prevention or elimination? >> so accepting what you're saying, two other approaches which are preventing the formation of ameloid beta, it is a viable strategy, not certain
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it would work, but we don't see the odds of especially the approach as being meaningfully impacted by the result. for the patients themselves, one of the other approaches will begin to show signs. >> so we see a sell-off in biogen and merck, is that justified or not? >> i do not. especially for biogen, biogen down 5% or so, this morning i thought the results should be higher, the stock should be higher today. most of what happened in mai view is the elimination of potential competitor from lilly, and now their drug still has the same odds of success made slightly higher because of the trend that was efficacy that lilly showed and in general believed the biogen drug is better and therefore i think the stock is worth more today than yesterday. >> okay. thank you so much. we appreciate it. >> thank you. >> to the trump rally we go. the dow and the russell 2000 small cap index hitting new highs. dom chu with the stocks that are pushing this market higher. >> another day, another record
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for the dow jones industrial average, now solidly above the 19,000 mark. we'll see what the 38 point gain today. i want to call your attention to the bigger point gainers driving things. if you look here, post 5, citadel securities post, you see goldman sachs up by half a percent, but carries a lot of weight in the dow. one of the biggest point contributors to today's move higher for the dow jones industrial average. follow me around here, i want to show you two stocks in focus, cat pilerpilla caterpillar, dow component and john deere. john deere on the heels of earnings up 11%. this on the heels of, again, a bullish commentary coming out of them for what will happen next year. two big heavy equipment makers powering things. financials very much a focus for a lot of traders down here as well. you made allusion to it earlier.
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m an m&t bank, some financials starting to make some moves higher and that's helping to power the markets now. back over to you. >> thanks, dom. president-elect donald trump will spend thanksgiving in florida. ahead of the holiday, we're hearing more about his cabinet picks. eamon javers is live in washington with the latest. >> we're hearing more about his cabinet picks just in the past couple of seconds as i'm told now that nbc news confirmed that donald trump has picked charter school advocate betsy devos to be education secretary. so that's going to be a new name to watch. we also saw earlier this morning governor nikki haley of south carolina picked to be the u.n. ambassador by the trump team. and look here, we have a live picture of where donald trump is right now. mar-a-lago, the pool camera, showing mar-a-lago live. we have been watching the coast guard and secret service activity and i'm now told we don't have a live shot to look at. but we have been watching the security activity around
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mar-a-lago there. that is going to be the southern white house from here on out for the next four years. a lot of reporters will be spending a lot of time down there figuring out what this administration is putting in place. another couple of names we're hearing in terms of the rumor mill here of what might happen later on today, some hints from dr. ben carson that he might be named to something, possibly as early as today, possibly secretary of housing and urban development. and general james mattis, famously nicknamed mad dog mattis, a marine corps general, may be up for secretary of defense, but that is still unofficial. and all of these announcements are not official until donald trump himself makes them. we'll be on stand by waiting for more names to come out this afternoon. >> thank you very much. appreciate it. we're calling i it #turkeytruce. how to get through thanksgiving without a family brouhaha over politics. plus, the black friday shopping rush is around the corner. courtney reagan is live in new york city.
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>> tyler, when you're done fighting with your relatives over the election outcome, you can come on out and fight with a bunch of strangers on thanksgiving day and black friday. i'll tell you what to expect coming up on "power lunch." ♪ come on, wake up!!! come on, why ya sleepin'? come on! what time is it? it's go time. come on. let's go, let's go, let's go. woooo hoooo!! yeah!! i feel like i went to bed an hour ago. i'll make the cocoa.
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get a great offer on the car of your grown-up dreams at the mercedes-benz winter event. it's the look on their faces that make it all worthwhile. thank you santa!!! now lease the 2017 c300 for $389 a month at your local mercedes-benz dealer.
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did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. welcome back to "power lunch." reel tailers are counting down to black friday. courtney reagan is live in new york city with a look at what we can expect this year.
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>> so black friday may not be as big as it once was, but it is system a very significant day for retail. the national retail federation is expecting 137.4 million americans, that's 59% of the country, will shop at some point over the weekend. in stores, online, or potentially both. black friday will, again, be the busiest day of the weekend with nearly 102 million americans planning to shop on that day. that's about on par with what we saw last year. and adobe predicts that online sales on black friday will top $3 billion for the first time this year. that would be up 11% from last year. and retailers did begin to offer some good deals earlier in the month online, which could be pulling some sales forward. when it comes to thanksgiving day, many retailers are going to be opening at the same time that they did last year. that sort of halts the multiyear trend we have seen of pulling earlier. 29 million americans are expected to shop on thursday. also about the same as last year.
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jcpenney's door busters begin at 3:00. that's the earliest. toys "r" us and best buy, macys at 5:00, walmart and target at 6:00. many people ask are the deals the best they could possibly be on black friday? and the answer in many cases is yes. retailers can only go so low and they'll go that low on black friday on the prices that they can. a tv at best buy, $650 on sale earlier this month, and on black friday, it is 400 bucks. that is a lot cheaper. back to you. >> a lot of the retailers said they have really constrained inventory. they had too much last year, they're hoping to not do as much discounting this year. does that mean, a, it is possible if you wait a long time you might not get the stuff you want, or that the discounts won't be nearly as good as they were last year? >> we asked this question to a number of analysts and consultants, folks that work with the retailers to set those inventory levels. and many people think that it won't be that noticeable to
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consumers that inventory levels are lower. meaning you're probably not going to see shortages at least not in an extreme way that you would have seen other than different years. but you may not get those extremely low prices at the end of the season or afterwards to clear the merchandise because last year they really were just overbloated and had way too much. so they're hoping to have it more inline this year, but not necessarily at a shortage level. >> courtney, thank you very much. who will be the winners and losers this holiday season? and who might be worth a little bit of your money. charles o'shea is lead retail analyst at moody's and cnbc contributor stacy woodlitz joins us. you're focused on the final four of retail, best buy, walmart, target, and amazon. who is going to come out of this with the best performance and the best stock market performance? >> i'll take the performance first. stock market is away from what i worry about as a fixed income guy. i think walmart has potential to
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really excel this holiday. the company called out at its meeting back in october that it expected 20% to 30% online sales growth the back half of the year. they hit a little over 20 for q3 which means q4 has to get higher than that. q4 will have a full quarter worth of jet in the equation, in our view, a big deal. target's got some exclusive toys that they brought out this year, 1800 plus. see how that does. the thing we're concern with about target and we have been public about this is the food business continues to struggle when you compare it to walmart. food equals traffic. traffic equals sales. so we have to think about that a little bit. from the best buy perspective, i think it is clear that best buy has really made the online transition. and -- >> that's what's causing their stock to go up as much as it has. >> that has to be one of the biggest factors, absolutely. four or five years ago, people were throwing dirt on best buy, thought they would go out of business because of online, et
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cetera. we took a different view and thought there was power in the brand and power with the vendors which the company exploited. and we think they have really followed the best playbook to move online. >> let me bring stacy into the conversation. the retail index is up a lot since the election. is it justified? >> that's the issue here. they are up 8% since this election. you've seen some of the stocks run 20%. and, yes, you know, retailers have already won. why? the first time in three, four years, their inventories are finally right sized. these stocks imply that already. i'm a little cautious after the run we have had in terms of winners. i think the winners will be the retailers that have decided they're going to do the same promotions in store on black friday, that they will do online. they will not discriminate. that is target, that is kohl's and walmart here. >> you know, charles, we so
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rarely interview a fixed income retail analyst. what kind of yields can i get? walmart bonds and best buy bonds i assume. >> there is cds out there. i think in the past best buy was -- there was a big bifurcation in best buy between the view we took and the view others took. we took a long-term view, we thought the strategy was correct. in walmart's case, there was a bifurcation last year when they announced their plans in october to invest significant sums online and its people and price and in the stores so the stock price went one way. we took a view this was a good long-term investment. i think bond investors have a bit of a longer view than an equity investor does obviously. you have to drill down into the strategy and see who -- >> the yield on walmart now is 2.8%. what can i get on walmart bond? >> wow. that's a tough question in all honesty. i would have to get back to you on that one. >> okay. >> depends on the maturity.
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>> exactly. depends on duration and that sort of thing. >> not too long ago, we were lamenting the death of department stores, a secular shift under way, people don't want to shop that way anymore. what are we going to see this holiday season? are people going to return to the old department store and do their shopping? >> yes, a department store traffic is down, high single digits year to date here. the department stores are still certainly under fire here and the big issue is that a lot of the vendors, whether it is kors or ralph lauren saying we don't want to be at the mercy of the promotions that they're using to drive traffic. the department stores like macy's, nordstrom, will survive and do well. the big question to me is, as these retailers or department stores embrace the shift to online, we know that online exposure comes with lower operating margins. so what does that look like a few years down the road? urban outfitters, really imploded today, discussed why
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they missed their margins because the midshift to online forced a lower operating margin for a bigger part of their business and that's what you really need to watch out for. >> they went all in on boho, didn't they? >> they did. they went in on -- they went all in on boho. they went all in for woodstock for women, the woodstock look and boho, a mess and the markdowns were up big time because women who are in their 30s just don't dress like that. >> woodstock flowy dress on. >> have a great thanksgiving, stacy. >> woodstock was muddy. >> it was muddy, dirty, smoke. >> not for me. >> if you ever wondered who gets paid to pull off the macy's thanksgiving day parade, it is the man you see right there. we go behind the scenes next.
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♪ welcome back. if you ever wondered what it takes to pull off the macy's thanksgiving day parade, you're about to find out. here is "today's" i get paid for this. >> i'm john piper. and i get paid to produce the macy's thanksgiving day parade. ♪
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from the time a pencil touches the page, to the time we test fly the balloon in the air, it is usually about 7 to 9 months. all of the engineering that goes into the balloons, all of the construction and artistry that goes into the float, the final step is an outdoor inflation and test flight. we bring in the pilot, the co-pilots, and the captain and the co-captains who are going to be on that balloon for parade so that they can take it for a test drive, really get a handle on it. what is it like? when your balloon comes to be, magic. total magic. people say what do you do for a living? i tell them, and they go, no way. real really? that's got to be the coolest job in the world. i just say, yeah. >> it is the coolest job in the world. >> it really is. >> have you ever gone and seen where they blow up the balloons on the west side?
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i've never done that. >> maybe tonight. >> nice night, yeah. pretty cool. only been canceled, i think, during world war ii, no weather, rain, sleet, wind, nor outside threat has caused it to -- >> nbc has broadcast it for decades. >> i believe hoda and al roker tomorrow. for more on what it takes to pull off the parade, head over to powerlunch.cnbc.com and you can watch the parade starting at 9:00 a.m. tomorrow over on nbc. this year, you can watch it in 360 degrees. macy's, universal and verizon will live stream the parade. if you have a browser or device that can handle 360 degree youtube video you can watch the balloons and floats as though you were street side. >> is it bad i don't know if i have access to -- >> i don't know either. i think i have -- what do i
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have? >> sounds amazing. >> i think i have 3-d. i never used it. >> transport, that group up 8% since the election two weeks ago. look at the big winners, avis budget group, alaska air up 12%. can the transports keep flying? should you buy them now in the trump rally? "power lunch" is back in two. they may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. they're your customers. and by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u.s. retailers
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meet their demands with more responsive retail models... ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations... creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touch-point. it's a new day in retail, and together, we're building the store of the future. digital works for retail. let's talk about how digital works for your business.
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hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update for this hour. federal highway safety regulators want smartphonemakers to lock out most apps when the phone is being used by a driver. the volunteer guidelines released today suggest automakers should make it easier for info takenment systems to pair with smartphones. apple getting into the holiday shopping spirit. the company which has previously shied away from black friday deals is teasing one. one day sales, that is. and free two-day deliveries for purchases made at its online stores. las vegas is getting its own hockey team and the city unveiled the name and logo in typical flashy vegas fashion.
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the golden knights begin playing next season. they are the first expansion team to be added to the nhl since 2000. and the uk is being asked to help name this newborn male hippo that was born earlier this month at the marwell zoo in southern england. the choices are derrick, george, walter or norbert. look at that little guy. good swimmer. i vote for norbert. >> me too. >> i think norbert is perfect. >> the most original. >> i think so too. >> thanks, sue. >> back to you. look at the markets now, the trump valley rolling on. the dow hitting new highs led by caterpillar, verizon, american express, the russell 2000 small cap index also at new highs, headed for the 14th straight day of gains. telecom, industrials, energy leaving the sectors now. >> look at transports, they're also riding this trump rally, up 8% since the election with trump's promise to spend on intrastructui
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infrastructure, the industry has reason to be optimistic. >> so amtrak's new ceo who just came out of retirement from 40 years at norfolk southern joined us on "squawk on the street" this morning. i asked him what he would want to see addressed first in a big infrastructure package under president-elect trump. >> we would love to see him fund the so-called gateway project, which really is the new york infrastructure. it is the new tunnels under the hudson, which are desperately needed, it is the rehabilitation of penn station, which is desperately needed. it is replacing some 100-year-old bridges. >> so it is no secret america's infrastructure is woefully outdated. that's one reason the dow transports soared 12% this month, outperforming both the dow and the s&p 500, factor in deregulation prospects for energy, rules tied to trucking, a lower corporate tax rate, which for many transportation
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carriers would be boon because they pay top rates and this sector could see a meaningful boost in terms of earnings. those are all ifs now. the thing to keep in mind, we have seen transports rallying preelection as well, many stocks already hitting something of an inflexion point after months of negative data, look at industrial production, rail traffic, a number of traders and analysts pointing out the transports have been oversold coming into the election outcome, they were cheap compared to historic valuations and that's the reason that some of these stocks could keep chucking higher, especially if some of these ifs become reality. >> what is the latest on the pilot strike, should we be worried that it might or might not get here? >> there is a hearing this afternoon. you've got -- this is air transport services, which amazon also actually owns a stake in. they have 20 planes that run amazon packages as well as dhl, a pilot strike with them, a hearing this afternoon to see whether the strike can continue. the good news is if you're
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ordering on amazon, they lease planes from another carrier as well, atlas air, and work with fedex, u.p.s., the u.s. postal service. as you mentioned, we're coming into the peak shipping season here. you see a strike like this it raises the alarm bells. you've got something like a million and a half pounds of freight that are just sitting at hubs right now that can't get off the ground. >> thanks, morgan. we're going to stick with the transports. they're surging during the post election trump rally, nades like ryder, jb hunt, kansas city southern and union pacific are leading the charge. industrials are on the move too. so should planes, trains and profits be on the menu. let's bring in tobias leftowitz. have we had you on since the election? >> no, you have not. i was overseas during the election. >> we'll discuss one thing, you guys predicted pretty negative consequences if trump won, right? what do you think happened? >> i think investors saw overnight futures down as
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strongly as they were, but if you were using brexit as the model, it was too late to kind of go negative on it and should probably start to short cover that thing. on top of that, i think people also started saying, wait a minute, many of the policies are very progrowth and that's why you're seeing, for example, transportation stocks doing better, and industrial stocks doing better if there is 100% tax write-off for the first year of any capital expenditure you make. those things were viewed as positive, tax cuts. i'm less convinced of the infrastructure story. we are hearing some pushback from republicans already in washington about pure infrastructure spending. >> does that mean this run is overdone? would you sell them here? or would you -- >> i would say the infrastructure stuff i think is overdone. i think the tax cuts, the capital spending benefits, even consumer spending benefits of tax cuts would probably be there. infrastructure issue, even if you look at the trump proposal, was more about private public joint ventures that probably
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doesn't get a lot of the states and municipalities on board, doesn't get democrats on board. and republicans are pushing back a little bit because whatever tax they do collect on repatriation agreement, oversees cash, they would like to see that be benchmarked against some of the other tax cuts, try to make this as revenue neutral as possible, don't blow out deficits. >> how you factoring in a corporate tax rate cut, tobias. i'm sure you've done the back of the envelope calculation if there is 15% taxes. what does that mean? >> we doubt 15%. the house ways and means committee is about 20%. the effective tax rate for the s&p 500 has been 27%. so, in other words, maybe 35, but there have been -- an r&d tax credit, other deductions, they brought it down to 27% effectively. if you -- i guess the simplest way to think about it, for every 1% of tax rate decline you get, just over a percent of earnings
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benefit, question is what do you pay for a tax related benefit and i think it won't be the full multiple, but still meaningful. on the other side, the dollar strength strengthened. >> on that note, i want you to hear what meg whitman, the hewlett-packard, on "squawk on the street" talking about the impact of the dollar. >> the currency head winds are very real. because when the dollar is strong, our goods are more expensive overseas. so let's say someone in europe was going to buy a thousand servers, now maybe they only buy 800 because the dollar is so strong. so we have to, listen, we have to manage that, that's part of our new reality, we got to get our cost structure in line. >> 13-year high for the dollar now. at some point it starts to hurt earnings, right? >> so we have to be a bit careful there. every 1% move in the dollar is about .2%. so 1% tax rate is better than 1% benefit. and 1% move in the dollar is about .2% negative. net net still come out ahead.
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to be fair, i respect meg whitman a lot, given that most of the servers are built in asia, i'm not sure it is an issue about the u.s. dollar move. >> why do you say investor sentiment remains depressed? >> we run a proprietary metric, i would say the words panic and euphoria are more gimmicks in terms of marketing. we're running analysis on how investors are positioned and still positioned cautiously, so we're below that panic level. that generates a near 97% probability of higher stock prices a year from now. and so, again, we're not mu measuring measure ing feelings. we're trying to figure out where -- have they gone into very optimistic scenario. >> this is good. this is good if you want stocks to go up. >> if you -- it is good if you
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have a one-year time horizon. that's very different than figuring out next week or two. i suspect markets probably run a bit too far in the very near term, but everybody kind of wants it high, in the holiday spirit, i guess. so people saying wear going -- >> we're feeling trumpy. >> yeah. everybody is looking on the plus side right now. and why not? >> there will be a hiccup. >> of course there will. >> the town referendum in a couple of weeks for everybody to be nervous about as well. so i kind of recognize that markets don't go up in a straight line, we are going to get some bumps, we'll get a couple of details, maybe on the infrastructure side that isn't as positive as some people are thinking right now. and, again, i mean, you hear these huge numbers being thrown around, a trillion dollars of infrastructure, it is a trillion dollars of entire stimulus that includes tax cuts, and, again, i suspect you're going to have a little -- >> tobias, thanks. have a great holiday weekend.
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>> you too, enjoy the turkey. >> fantastic. >> let's get to the bond market, rick santelli is tracking all the action at the cme. >> we used to have a big curve on late short drive. they have engineered it out. there were big u-turns on all markets today, especially treasuries and foreign exchange. look at one-week of tens, smums it up best. we started to fly before the data this morning, started to fly into the 240s after the data, but right back. and the reason why is because it shows you technicals and holiday weekend played into the sell-off that propelled it once it shot off at 235, which it is back at. left side, right side, that is an area to pay attention to. dollar index, same thing, holding the bulk of the gains. look where it came back to. 101 1/2, huge area pay attention that could be a footing for another takeoff when we get everybody back at the trading desk. look at basically one year chart
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of the dollar yen to understand the dollar strength, gang busters against the yen. look at this chart, which is the dollar index going back a bit, but the reason this is important is it shows you what is going on with the euro, 1 05 is your big level. finally, nobody talks about it enough. the dollar is flying against the chinese currency, best level since the spring of '08. tyler, back to you. >> thank you very much. rick santelli. ellen degeneres can't get into the white house and jack dorsey can't get into his twitter account. we'll tell you what that was all about ahead. first, many businesses are closed tomorrow. not this company. boston market gearing up for what it calls its super bowl. the ceo joins us live next.
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food, food, food. welcome back to "power lunch." finally, we're serving some lunch on "power lunch." >> i know. >> we're long on power, very rarely to we actually have lunch. many businesses closed for thanksgiving. but not this one. it is the super bowl for boston market. chain estimates more than a million people will eat one of its turkey meals, maybe a couple of its turkey meals. you never know. here first on cnbc, george michelle, the ceo of boston market. all yourlocations are open tomorrow? >> absolutely. all 462 of them. >> how many pounds of turkey are you going to serve? >> millions. we serve about 1.2 million customers tomorrow, from catering to people that are coming to pick up our packages of whole turkey with the trimmings and the sides, to people eating in our restaurants tomorrow as well. >> do you offer deals for the catering? what does it work out to per person if you want to do a boston market catered or bought
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turkey? >> about $10 for catering, which gives you the whole -- >> per person. >> per person. it is well priced. if you come into our restaurants, you get a half chicken or turkey with two sides, corn bread, and a slice of pie as well for one price. >> has that price gone up? versus last year or years past? >> our package is the same as last year. >> have your costs gone up? >> our costs of food, no, they have come down a little bit on food, but not on labor. >> i was going to ask, are you getting margins squeezed because of the rising minimum wage. >> that and rent too. so much competition for space from fast food and fast schedule. there has been a big push on rents at the same time. between labor and rents, they have offset some of the savings we had with food. >> is all of your turkey roasted or do you fry some of it? >> are you asking for a friend? >> i'm just curious. >> we don't have any fryers in
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any of our restaurants. >> i know a rival of yours, who does this, they do deep fry their turkeys, and so on. >> we believe in roasted and rotisserie and that's why we're a rotisserie platform restaurant, and we only use fresh chicken in our restaurants as well. so we really focus on quality food. >> you mean never frozen. >> never frozen, exactly. >> i'm curious about the rents. we keep hearing about malls that are struggling, retailers are abandoning them, supposedly, and that there is just less retail out there competing for space. you're saying you're seeing more competition? >> we're seeing more competition in the restaurant business. even in the mall, an empty space, 50% of the time they fill it with restaurant or fast food place. there is still demand. companies are looking to grow and they pay higher rents than normal to get the space and satisfy the market. >> speaking of publicly traded restaurants, we have seen since
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the election a sharp rally in a lot of the stocks. i'm wondering if you're seeing -- you're private, but are you seeing that commensurate customer flow in your restaurant? a pickup in traffic or more of a willingness to buy meals now that there is some uncertainty out of the way? >> i think up until last week, we saw a drop against last year. i think as of wednesday and thursday of last week, people realized thanksgiving is around the corner. we had the record day on monday and tuesday in terms of customers coming to our restaurants. and people ordering food. >> what about this department of labor -- the department of labor wanted to increase the number of employees that were going to be able to get overtime. now, there has been -- that has been overturned by a judge in texas. is that good news for you? >> we made the decision to increase the threshold for our restaurant managers, because we believe they should get paid adequately, so we're disregarding what is happening in the news and what the judges said. we actually upped the minimum for our restaurant managers. >> what does that mean? a manager makes how much and
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gets overtime -- >> base of 49,000 and change and we're happy to do that. it only impacted 10% of our restaurant. >> how is business the rest of the year apart from thanksgiving? >> we had a tough year this year given the rhetoric with the elections. it is the messages that were sent, the bleak messages about the economy, about interest rates, about what is going on. and we believe that once the inauguration comes, and hopefully mr. trump will lower taxes as he had promised, that things will get much better in 2017. >> you to see a blue state, red state reaction? >> not really. our chickens are nonpartisan. >> that's beautiful. that was well done, george. >> very funny, mr. michel. >> this is beautifully styled. who did the styling over here? we have a nice food stylist who did this. well done. very nice. >> thanks for coming in. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. we are on turkey watch.
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two of them meeting with the president today. one of them will be pardoned. will it be tater or will it be tot? we'll bring it to you live coming up. >> he's pardoning a lot of people. >> why not both turkeys? >> both turkeys. >> we'll have to wait and see. >> so nasty if he doesn't pardon both. >> survivor's guilt on behalf of tater or tot. the countdown to christmas continues. 31 days to go. one group particularly excited about that, cybercriminals. a look at biggest online scams ahead of the holidays. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go!
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the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade so what else is new? humm..she's doing good. she needs more care though. she wants to stay in her house. i don't know even where to start with that. first, let's take a look at your financial plan and see what we can do. ok, so we've got... we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird. oh caroline. so corporate put you up in a roadside motel. but with directv from at&t, you can download then binge watch your dvr'd shows from anywhere. that makes you more powerful than whatever it is you just stepped in. or that friendly dumpster diver outside. i wouldn't sit there. it's your tv, take it with you.
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for a free quote today. liberty stands with you™. liberty mutual insurance. ♪ it's the most wonderful time of the year ♪ and it is the most wonderful time of the year for cybercriminals. josh lipton is live in san francisco with a look at the biggest online scams ahead of the holidays. josh? >> well, melissa, during the holidays more than 80% of consumers will likely shop online. and this year security experts say to be on the lookout for new
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scams. for example, criminals are now posing as amazon. they send e-mails like this one including phony order numbers for all those holiday gifts you're buying, the e-mails contain attachments, if victims open that attachment, they get infected with ransom ware. this is what it looks like. criminals lock your files, and threaten to reveal your most sensitive information if you don't pay up. now, in order to try and protect consumers during the holidays, tech companies are stepping in. since october 1st, google disabled more than 200 million bad ads such as counterfeit goods. >> the bad guys are trying repeatedly and they get to keep trying until they succeed while we have to block everything and we have to succeed 100% of the time. so they get to keep being creative and coming up with new stuff and our teams have to respond and our systems have to respond even faster. >> go to scams during the holidays, include fake shopping
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websites, spear fishing and also social media scams where criminals pose as your friends and family on facebook. google says we should be using complex passwords, never using the same password for different sites. he says to use common sense. if a holiday deal sounds too good to be true, it probably is. back to you. >> good advice, generally speaking, all the time. thanks, josh. so this is awkward. twitter briefly suspended the account of its own ceo jack dorsey. happened yesterday evening. the account was down for 30 minutes, came back online with 200 followers, but eventually all of his 3.8 million followers were restored. he made light of the situation tweeting, just setting up my twitter, again. referring to the first ever tweet he sent by him ten years ago. he said the suspension, as you see there, was an internal mistake. >> that's like when facebook memorialized mark zuckerberg saying he had passed away. >> i think this is terrible
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embarrsment. >> the leader's twitter detwit phied. ellen degeneres got locked out of the white house for a bit yesterday. the comedian was attending yesterday's presidential medal of freedom ceremony but forgot her i.d. she tweeted this picture of herself on a bench in lafayette park, writing they haven't let me into the white house yet because i forgot my i.d. #notjoking. ellen happily finally made it into the white house and she had some fun during her visit. doing the mannequin challenge with some of the other presidential medal of freedom attendees. jordan was there, michael that is, kareem abdul-jabbar. >> hanks. >> vin scully was a winner. >> good mannequin challenge. >> we could try it right now.
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>> we could just do it. >> next, the latest readout of the economy, health of the economy, the fed minutes out at 2:00 p.m. and roads getting more risky. what the department of transportation is doing right now to make it safer. that's coming up. attention: are you eligible for medicare? the medicare enrollment deadline is just a few days away. changes to medicare plans could impact your healthcare costs. are you getting all the benefits available to you? new plans are now available that could increase your benefits and lower how much you pay out of pocket. to update your coverage- or enroll for the first time -- call healthmarkets. we'll help you make sure you have the right medicare plan. hi, i'm doctor martin gizzi. it's a new medicare year. that means more changes... and more confusion.
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welcome back to "power lunch." great to have you here on this day before thanksgiving. we begin this hour with breaking news from the fed. the minutes from the latest fed meeting to be released any second now. let's get to hampton pearson in washington. hampton? >> the fed at the meeting in early november, the participants, we know, judging the case for a rate hike had in fact increased. what were the specifics? the participants said stronger labor markets, and increase in wages, they called it inflation compensation and increase in the labor force participation rate all positives toward moving towards the dual man date. they said they needed further evidence, specifically what kind of further evidence from the minutes we're told, still some concerns about modest slack in the labor market, low inflation expectations, they will still be data dependent and frankly there
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was still some who felt no immediate need to tighten. however, at the same time, how likely would a rate hike be in december? some participants, again, according to the minutes, argued that the fed needed to increase the target funds rate in december or that it should occur at the next meeting because, quote, they needed to, quote, preserve their credibility going forward. again, as we said to the minutes tell us they'll still be data dependent. overall views on the economy, majority of the risks to the economy are balanced in the eyes of monetary policymakers, economic activity is picking up in part due to an increase in business investment going forward. back to you. >> all right, thank you, hampton. steve liesman with us. is the headline that they have acknowledged they need to preserve their credibility? >> an interesting one. stood out for me among the headlines that hampton read. i think the headline is that the world has moved substantially beyond the november meeting.
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it isn't often that now that they moved up the minutes from six weeks to three weeks after the meeting, making them fresher, that they are quite so stale, given that donald trump has been elected president, given that we're going to likely have a new fed chair within a year, two different governors coming up very soon, but more importantly we have a very different fiscal scenario, and what we this is we had mixed signals from the federal reserve, fed chair janet yellen basically said that we're operating near full employment, talking about the inflationary aspects to it, fed vice chairperson stan fisher said bring it on, we're the only game in town, two mixed signals, the question becomes now what the fed is doing based upon the prior set of assumptions we had, but a whole new set of assumptions out there coming from across the street of washington, d.c. >> steve, let's bring in danielle dimar tino booth. and also with us, ron insana, who made it here to the studio. danielle, what did you make of
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the minutes? >> a back story there. but he's here. >> i'll go back to that credibility line. i think we were looking for a scene there w sign there was a deeper consensus. they're shifting the goal post for the investing public to begin to concentrate on what kind of signals we're going to get in december at the press conference that follows the december meeting about the number of rate hikes we might see in 2017. i think that the focus shifted well beyond december, especially given the market. >> hasn't the bond market pulled them there too? >> about to pull them beyond where they want to be in terms of -- >> they may have already done so. i don't know how it reacted to this particular announcement, but we were at -- a couple of rate hikes already built in. >> we're in the john menard c p camp, infrastructure spending,
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increase defense spending, a whole host of things may be coming down the pike. that changes the lower for longer scenario into maybe the faster and farther scenario for the fed, maybe go four times next year instead of one or two if a republican congress passes everything that a president trump wants. >> i knew in that lower for longer became consensus, god, people repeated it all day long every day. it had to be the bottom and the end of it. >> the fed, as much as we might like to think that it is just going to be fiscal infrastructure spending here in the united states, i think the fed is incapable of ignoring what is going on in china, and in the emerging market, dollar denominated debt market, the bis came out and said there is $10 trillion of dollar denominated debt and the emerging markets are taking it on the chin to a much greater extent than the euro now and the fed has to be cognizant of the moves they make here and how they affect the interconnected global financial system. >> in the context of the trump rally and rally into -- what is
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the consensus in terms of trajectory of rate hikes next year, in order for the market to say, you know what, that is in line with what we're thinking and we're poised to keep going? >> i don't actually have a consensus yet. we'll gather one before the december meeting. maybe we should do it earlier now. the fact is, as a reporter who covers economic policy, first of all, it has been six years since i had to cover economic policy. there has been none in -- there is finally going to be a debate, not going to have to talk about the fed quite so much. that's important. the other aspect of this is given how donald trump appears to have a propensity to change his mind a bit, shall we say, what we should report on, what assumptions we should build in, it is fair to say the market had an assumption of increased infrastructure spending going in. but in is an unknown here. that unknown is animal spirit. you get into a situation where as an entrepreneur you don't have to worry about some infinite amount of taxation
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being taken off the top of what you were to produce, it might change things. if you think about lesser regulation, rather than more regulation, it might change. you can imagine an environment where things begin to steam roll and get a little hotter or quite a bit hotter than they have been. >> you can. but that presents a dilemma for the fed. animal spirits in the financial markets are crazy. >> let's say this, if this is a growth spurred increase, and i just did some analysis of this, only 40% of the ten-year yield rise is attributable to a rise in inflation expectations. the rest is either a supply phenomenon or a growth phenomenon. if it is a growth phenomenon, the fed can abide it and it don't matter too much. >> i don't know how much it don't matter in the sense that we're running -- again, look, i've been looking for infrastructure spending and faster economic growth, but if you turbocharge that growth with a 3 to $6 trillion increase in the national debt, largely
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driven by tax cuts, increased military spending, increased infrastructure spending and deregulation, you can run really hot. and then you can make the case that the fed is going to have to step out in front of -- >> play catch up. >> yes, they are playing catch up and they will. bond market is telling us a lot new, so is the dollar and the stock market. i wouldn't discount what they're saying at the moment in unison. commodities sending the same signal at the same time. >> ron talks about the deficit spending, that's the supply issue you're talking about. >> you have to understand the debate among economists. there is a debate, they would say on one side they would say that it is just keynesian stimulus. the supply side, larry kudlow with come forward and say there is a magical element to this that if you lower taxes, you create this incentive to invest. i think we all agree and you can write in and say nasty things if you want, that no matter what, they don't pay for themselves.
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they can create more growth, but, yet, i would not be so quick to say tax cuts don't don't pay for themselves. there is an upper limit now on how much deficit spending we can do. i think that the democrats agreed there was more room here. the republicans will suddenly become deficit doves as we all change sides because of this election. that's what's going to happen. and we'll see. >> the move we have seen already in the bond mark it et is tacke. >> the gop which decompromised ke keynesian economics -- >> they used to joke, republican deficit good, democratic deficit bad. and didn't matter how you get there. >> i will say right now, i look at the numbers earlier today, interest as percent of the total
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budge set budget is 6%. there is scope for that to be higher. japan runs a debt to gdp ratio of 210%. okay. their ten-year yield is just above zero. here's the rule of thumb, folks, at home. if you want to play the deficit game at home. deficits matter when markets say they matter. not a minute before, and not a minute after. >> but i think we're at that inflexion point now if you look -- if deflation is a thing of the past, both overseas and here at home, and the dynamic is changing and you get massive fiscal stimulus, it is hard to accommodate monetary policy being as easy as it is. >> the fed will use this to change its balance sheet. >> okay, thanks, guys. danielle, ron. >> the market reaction to the fed minutes to dominic chu. >> what we have seen is we did see the initial move higher
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overall for the market. we were about 37, 38 points higher on the dow, still in record territory and moved up to close to 50 points up and we pulled back a little bit now, up by 42. same thing happened with ten-year yields around 236, got as high as around 2.38, now we backed off. currently trading around 2.35% for ten years. we'll keep a close eye on what is happening overall with banks. we noted many of these banks are seeing at least 52-week highs if not post financial crisis highs and the likes of m&t bank and others, record highs for them. regional banks a focus, otherwise right now, 43 points higher, guys, in the dow. >> new rules on which workers must be paid overtime. they are now on hold. and that is a big deal for small and large businesses. workers too. kate rogers joins us now. >> a federal judge in texas issued a nationwide injunction tuesday to block a sweeping
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overtime rule that was set to begin on december 1st. the regulation would allow an additional 4 million salaried workers to be eligible for overtime pay, doubling the salary threshold from $23,000 a year to more than $47,000 annually. the rule was completed in may as part of president obama's push for better worker protections in the face of a stagnant federal minimum wage at $7.25 an hour. the department of labor said it strongly disagrees with the decision by the court, which has the effect of delaying a fair day's pay for a long day's work for millions of hard working americans. business groups including the national federation of independent business was a plaintiff in one of the challenges to this law called the move a victory for the small business owners. the national retail federation also spoke out in support of the injunction saying the rules are just plain bad public policy. the move also comes at a time when deregulation is very heavy
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on the minds of many with donald trump set to take office in january. in a video this week, he outlined his first 100 days saying he would implement a rule that eliminates two regulations for each new one instated. this was juan one of the rules people thought he would tackle early on. busiest travel day of the year. maybe ever. we sent phil lebeau to o'hare airport to get a firsthand look. phil? >> who says traveling for thanksgiving is filled with nothing but headaches and long lines? it's inconsiderably smooth, not only here at o'hare, b.a.r. but airports around the country. we'll give you an update on what the airports look like hane it me means for the airlines when "power lunch" returns. ♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪
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♪jake reese, "day to feel alive"♪ leslie hansen is a business honor in the beautiful northern california coastal town of half moon bay. her shop odyssey sells products related to science and nature. like geodes and fossils. she'll encourage customers to shop small all holiday season. for more, watch "your business" sunday mornings at 7:30 on ms msnbc.
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welcome back to "power lunch." we have breaking news for you. jose cuervo put its ipo on hold until after the election of donald trump. and we know that the election, the president-elect and the vote weighed on mexican stocks and the currency. and really this played into a lot of mexican consumer names. constellation brands has been down. and that has accelerated after the election date. also mexican stocks taking a hit with the currency. the mexican benchmark, there you go, the fund for you, and looks like jose cuervo is postponing
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their $1 billion listing. >> casualty from the election when it comes to mexico. thank you very much, susan. last place you want to be today is an airport. that, of course, is where we send phil lebeau. he's live at chicago's o'hare as we expect a record number of people flying today. phil? >> the good news, michelle, for me and others who have to be here at o'hare and other airports is that we're not seeing a whole lot of delays. we have been checking in at airports around the country and generally speaking all the flights are moving on time relatively speaking. a few storms in the upper midwest and the pacific northwest which have had some delays, but nothing catastrop c catastrophic. you have 3.7 million people who will be flying this thanksgiving weekend. and for a lot of those people, a big reason why they're flying is because the airfares have come down so much over the last three years. take a look at this chart. this is data that comes to us from the airfare website hopper. you're looking at airfares now on average, last month, domestic
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airfare, $214. it has come down dramatically. asked for when people will be doing the most flying, today is really busy, watch next sunday and monday. >> we have seen monday on return flights creep up a bit in the last few years as people are hip to the idea of waiting a day later. sunday, by far, will be the busiest. >> we have talked about the airlines and how much those stocks have gone up since the election of donald trump as president. we'll look at alaska, jetblue, spirit. you notice in the last two weeks, these guys have gone up with the rest of the airline stocks. the key thing is, well, it is wonderful for investors who have been riding the stocks high, let's wait. at some point people will say we need to see those go positive again. >> record number of people expected to hit the road today through sunday. many could be at risk by drivers
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who are distracted by their cell phones. with that in mind, today the u.s. department of transportation out with new recommendations, pushing for a driver mode setting for smartphones. deborah harshman is a former ntsb chair. welcome back. good to have you with us. what would a driver mode do in practice? >> ideally we would love to see a driver mode that is like airplane mode so when you're driving the car you aren't using your phone, but unfortunately these guidelines actually encourage drivers to pair their phones with their cars and that doesn't really help when it comes to distraction. we know that drivers continue to be distracted when they're paired to their car and so using your car to do voice to text or surf the internet to do many of these things are still distracting whether you're using a handheld or in vehicle system.
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>> even to dial your phone, if you're not using -- even if you are using voice dial, have to press the button and you take your mind off the task at hand for even a split second and that can be obviously very dangerous. what would you like to see happen? a way to stop people from using their phones entirely while they're in the car? that doesn't sound like something americans are going to go for. >> that's right. i think the jeangene genie is o bottle. they're knitted into the fabric of our lives and we're always connected. unfortunately this means when we're behind the wheel we're connected too. the challenge is the technology needs to get smarter. the technology needs to understand when people are in high work load events, when we're in situations where we shouldn't be using the phones. as human beings, we're just not that good at filtering that out. we may start the conversation at the stop light, but then the light changes, situations become more complex, and we don't
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figure out how to check out. >> what do you do? yourself? >> you know, really, i would say that phone is a huge temptation. i've got three kids, a job where people are always, you know, expecting me to be available. i put my phone in the back seat or in the trunk because it is compelling when you hear that beep, buzz or ding, you want to answer it. if it is out of reach, i can't do it. >> you just ignore it. you ignore it, even if it is paired to your car. >> i don't pair it to my car for that very reason. and so i don't pair the phone to my car because it becomes very hard not to take those calls, you're almost lulled into accepting them, and we know hands free is not risk free. there are dozens of studies that show your brain is the thing that is distracted, not your hand. if it was your hand, we would have outlawed stick shift cars. >> and that would be bad pr on your part. >> that's true. we were talking earlier, my shed made an interesting point that i
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did not know of, i'm thinking of the terrible crash in chattanooga, where the school bus was not equipped with seat belts and i said, why don't they have seat belts? maybe lives could have been saved. michelle pointed out apparently the way school buses are designed with those sort of curved roofs, why don't you explain -- >> i covered it when i worked local news in tampa, florida, i covered numerous bus accidents and we do this story, why aren't there seat belts. the safety experts tell us that the design of the bus was that they were meant to roll and that's why the curve -- the curve on the top is like that, that you don't want children to have a seat belt on in a bus. is that correct? >> and be suspended upside down. >> no, actually, the issue with school buses and seat belts, it dates back to a standard from the 1970s, called compartmentalization. and the focus there is really passive occupant protection where they're closely spaced,
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high padded seat backs and so the students don't have to be restrained, but they're contained in that space like eggs in a egg carton. doesn't have anything to do with roof design and they're not -- the buses shouldn't roll. we don't want school buses to roll. but the national safety council recommended three-point belts for all newly manufactured school buses. going forward, we believe that if you're going to buy a new school bus, you want the best protection in there for the kids, just like we do in our cars and that's a three-point belt for all occupants. >> it was 20 years ago, tyler. >> so let me ask you another question, should trains have three-point seat belts on them? >> there is a lot of debate, certainly about that when it comes it trains. one thing i would say that people really want to focus on with respect to trains is that this -- the survival space inside the compartment, don't want the passenger cars to
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crush. and you also want to limit the objects that people will strike. so when you talk about transit trains, people getting on and off and on and off really frequently, that really may not be reasonable. but you also want them to be able to survive if there is a crash to maintain the survival space and not have hard objects that they're going to hit. >> i was thinking more of inner city trains where you're most of the time -- mostly seated. have a great thanksgiving. and i'll put my phone in my trunk. >> thank you, have a safe holiday. >> tractors, toner and trendy clothes coming up in the good, the bad and the ugly. when you reach your destination this thanksgiving, you don't want to fight with your family, do you? we'll give you tips on how to have a civil political discussion. join the conversation on twitter using the #turkeytruce. what president obama is about to pardon two thanksgiving turkeys, live to the white house. "power lunch" will be right back. opportunities aren't always obvious.
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welcome back to "power lunch." time for the good, the bad and the ugly in today's trade, a good day for shares of deere up more than 11%. earnings above estimates. the ceo calling 2016 one of its best years despite a very difficult market. on to the bad, that would be hp, down 7%, a disappointing earnings guidance for 2017, the reason behind that decline and it is a really ugly day for urban out fitters, tumbling by 11%. this after missing estimates and posting revenue well below forecast. boho tops. they're not working for brian and me. two big questions for the soon to be president trump. can he just hand off his business empire to his kids? is that enough to avoid krikz of interest and how can he back away or does he want to from some of his campaign rhetoric without angering the people who voted for him? former white house press secretary ari fleischer will join us next. ♪
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another car and thrown 50 feet into the river below. the man swam to shore and was rescued. get ready to celebrate thanksgiving with our families, service members on the uss eisenhower laufnching jets as part of the fight against isis, they will be treated to a traditional holiday feast including 4900 pounds of turkey. back at home, vice president elect mike pence and his wife took some time to volunteer at an indianapolis soup kitchen. the family spending part of the day in the hoosier state before heading to mississippi where their son is stationed with the marines. long shot, a man in switzerland broke the guinness world record for highest -- look, swish. sank that ball from the top of a dam, 593 feet in the air. nothing but net. >> holy smokes. >> that's amazing.
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>> that is my kind of game of horse. >> just one try? do we know? >> 1 millionth try over ten days. >> who goes and fetches the ball? that is the cnbc news update at this hour. >> we're 90 minutes away from the dloeclosing bell. markets are mixed. look at the roussell 2000. oil closing down by a few pennies. 4796 your last trade. >> donald trump sitting in the meeting with the new york times yesterday, saying quote in theory i could run my business perfectly and run the country perfectly. he also said the president can't have a conflict of interest. robert frank is here to explain how trump could separate his business from his presidency. there is no specific law that says he must. >> that's right. trump is absolutely correct, the law is on his side, all of the ethics and conflict of interest rules that apply to cabinet members and government officials do not apply to the president,
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and the vice president. the theory was the president's decisions are so far reaching that any rule would restrict his or her power. but the rules did not ponder a president with a multibillion dollar global business empire. now, trump has properties in 18 countries, golf courses in dubai, scotland, ireland, buildings in india, south korea, canada and the philippines, hotels in brazil and vancouver. the risks or the optical risk have already become apparent. three days after he talked to argentina's new president at trump tower, in buenos aires, suddenly got construction permits. his dealings with the u.s. government, that new hotel in d.c. is leased from the federal government, by an agency, whose chief trump will appoint. he's got three basic choices here on how to handle this. he could have his kids run the company and separate them from the white house. he could put the whole company
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into a blind trust, run by an independent trustee who he's never had a business relationship with. or he could sell the entire kit and caboodle and put all the proceeds into a trust. all of those have imperfections. and that's why once he becomes president, all the attention will turn to an obscure provision of the constitution you're about to hear a lot about it called the amoliement clause. it is up to congress to enforce it. there is a lot of disagreement about whether this could apply to trump and limit his business activities. already there are bills by members of congress calling on trump to convert his assets into conflict-free holdings or cash to make sure he meets the standards of the clause. the last statement we have from the trump organization was that he would hand the company to his children and that, quote, this is a top priority at the trump organization and the structure of this that is ultimately selected will comply with all applicable rules and regulations
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of which there are none. so basically what i think he did yesterday, starting all negotiations like trump does, say, look, here's what i could do. which is just about anything i want. before he might over the next few weeks say, here's what i'm going to do and walk back from that, everything is a negotiation for trump. i don't -- i think what he was saying to the public yesterday is nothing is forcing me to do this. whatever i do. so therefore whatever i do is for the sake of the american people. >> he comes out looking like the good guy on this. >> and, look -- >> we take him at his word. he's not interested now in making more money. he's interested in making america great. so and these rules were designed to trust the president. reason they were exempted, wear going to trust the president and that's essentially what trump is saying that we should do. >> also, the other issue too is so much of the value is involved in the brand itself, right?
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>> it is him. >> to say you're going to sell that off, doesn't even make sense to -- >> you can't sell donald trump, because donald trump owns donald trump. he always will. so that's not a clean solution. >> quickly on the clause of the constitution, not being a scholar of it, explain to me how that would -- how he would be vulnerable on that? would that be because, for example, the people in argentina, the leaders of argentina suddenly green light a proposal for his hotels and that's a gift? >> two examples, deutsche bank is his biggest lender. the german government has a stake or relationship with deutsche bank. is that, therefore, a proxy for the government or enough of a relationship to apply the clause? the bank of china has a relationship with donald trump. is -- as a lender. is therefore any relationship with donald trump a violation of -- this is something, again, as i mentioned, people will disagree on, that's not a direct foreign government but there is
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a relationship. >> okay. >> written for another time. >> yes. >> what is the best way for president elect trump to rid himself of the brewing conflicts? let's ask former white house press secretary ari fleischer, welcome back to "power lunch." >> thank you. >> you just heard this whole conversation, right? what do you think he should do? >> it is very important he get this right because what you never want is for a neutral observer, an american who is not for or against trump to say the decisions that he's making, he's making because he wants to line his pocket as opposed to the decisions he's making he's making because it is in the national interest. and you just don't want it if you're the president to create a cloud to have confusion about it. if i'm president trump there are two things i would do. one is i would personally draw that line so nobody has ever a reason to think that i would be making a governmental decision to enrich myself. i wouldn't say to a foreign leader of any type, you shouldn't put your windmills off shore from one of my properties. >> you're making a specific reference there, let's remind everybody, the discussion with nigel farage from the uk where he was complaining about -- he
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admitted he brought up the windmills off the coast of scotland and they hurt the view of his new club there. >> he shouldn't have those conversations because what he does is he co-mingles his private and the governmental or the implied authority of his governmental whenever he does that. similarly for the children, the children properly should run the business. he should have nothing to do with the business. but the children should. it is wrong to say that the children have to divest of that business. but, donald trump should not put the children in governmental meetings and the children should not seek to go into governmental meetings. >> here's the thing, ari. we know that's not going to happen, right? it is his nature to bring that up with nigel farage, to meet with the indians from india, to have these discussions. i mean, and so if his children are running the business, you don't think he's going to talk to his children about the business? i just find it incredibly hard to believe. >> there is a difference between talking to your children about the business and how is it going versus really starting to dig in. he should be busy, very busy, and he will be with the business of running the government and he
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said before he wanted to separate, that he knows he needed to put the time into running the country, waouldn't have time for the company. it is time to start practicing that which you must get right the day you're sworn in. this is the time to start phasing the activities and behaviors out. because you just don't want that cloud. it is going to be a hindrance to him being a good president if neutral people think he's doing things for the wrong reasons. >> you say no formal role then, i assume, for either ivanka or her husband jared kushner. >> i said for the children. i think the son-in-law is in a different category provided he becomes a full time employee. the strength is if he's a full time employee of the united states government, full time white house position, then i think you can make the case that he's an adviser to the president and he may be an in-law, but i think that's wrong to be accepted, he's an adviser to the president and people saw that during the campaign. you still have to make the separation as presidents often
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do with husbands, children, relatives, that's something that is common, frankly, in the senate and the house and in the cabinet. >> so two very prominent business people who were very much in favor of hillary clinton, mark cuban, now have seen photos of him, a photo of him meeting with steve bannon, this was tmz published this. and you can see they were meeting at the st. regis yesterday and meg whitman who was on "squawk box" earlier this morning and saying that she actually wanted to give donald trump a chance. it feels like -- they're not the only two, all of these people who have come out of the wood work, mitt romney, for example, who were such harsh critics, suddenly -- >> nikki haley. >> nikki haley, turning it around and now working for him or giving him the benefit of the doubt. have you ever seen a turn like this so quickly from so many people, does it make sense to you? are you surprised? >> i think everybody predicted this. this is called the proximity to power and powerful people want to be in the proximity to power what better power is there,
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higher power than the white house? >> the cynicism, ari, the cynicism. >> well, it is also a reflection of the fact that campaigns are brutal and tough affairs and when they're over you hope you put the worst behind us, mark cuban. i think what donald trump has to be careful of is the people who are most posed to him, if he puts them in pentagons of trust and power, first time it goes bad, and it will, will they turn on donald trump. it is important to have people in power who will be on your side when the going gets rough. i would advise him to be careful about who he puts in his cabinet so he doesn't have people who ditch him the first time -- >> that's a very interesting point. he has largely surrounded himself with family members and long time loyalists like mr. giuliani. what you seem to be striking in my words, not yours, what i would call fair weather loyalists. needs to be on guard against that. >> right. he needs a mix of people around
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him, and shouldn't only be loyalists and insiders, but got to get your mix right. >> some people willing to tell you you're wrong and i assume he's soliciting that as well. let's talk about how you in sort of a similar vain how you receive as an observer what seemed to be subtle changes in some of his positions, whether it has to be -- whether it has to do with waterboarding, whether it has to do with the -- you know adjusting first amendment somehow . >> not prosecuting hillary clinton. >> not prosecuting hillary clinton. does this help him, hurt him, what? >> i think you have to take it issue by issue by issue by issue by issue. i'm not convinced we heard the last on waterboarding. what the president-elect is hearing is the debate that takes place in the act agencies now. most people in dod don't support waterboarding. you'll find a split in the cia, many people in the cia will tell you it was effective in three different instances in which it
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was done and getting those people to later cooperate. he'll find out throughout the government some people tell him good idea, some people tell him bad idea, have to look at his gut and instinct. we haven't heard the last on that yet. >> we have to leave it here for some really important breaking news which i know you're familiar with, from your days in the white house, the president is pardoning the turkeys. ari fleischer. >> fortunately i have by my side here today two of my nephews, austin and aaron robinson, who unlike malia and sasha have not yet been turned cynical by washington. they still believe in bad puns. they still appreciate the grandeur of this occasion. they still have hope. malia and sasha, by the way, are thankful this is my final presidential turkey pardon. what i haven't told them yet is that we are going to do this every year from now on.
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no cameras, just us, every year, no way i'm cutting this habit cold turkey. [ applause ] >> good one. that was pretty funny. thanksgiving is a chance to gather with loved ones, reflect on our many blessings, and after a long campaign season finally turn our attention from polls to poultry. this year we're honored to be joined by two of the lucky ones, who were raised by the domino family in iowa. tater and tot. now, tater is here in a backup role just in case tot can't fulfill his duties. so he's sort of, like, the vice turkey. we are working on getting hmm a pair of aviator glasses. and it is my great privilege, my
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privilege, my job to grant them clemency this afternoon. as i do, i want to take a moment to recognize the brave turkeys who weren't so lucky who didn't get to ride the gravy train to freedom. who met their fate with courage and sacrifice and proved they weren't chicken. it is not that bad now. come on. of course we have a lot for thankful for this thanksgiving. six straight years of job creation, the longest streak ever, low unemployment, wages are rising again, inequality is narrowing, the housing market is healing, the stock market nearly tripled, high school graduation rate at an all tomb hiime high. proud families -- that's worth
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gobbling about. proud families across the country are finally complete now that marriage equality is the law of the land and there are many families of service members who had empty chairs at the table in recent years, but who in this thanksgiving can celebrate with our brave troops and veterans who we welcomed home. thanksgiving is also a reminder of the source of our national strength. that out of many we are one, that we're bound not by any one race or religion but rather by an adherence to common creed, and that all of us are created equal. and while accepting our differences in building a diverse society it has never been easy, it has never been more important. we are a people that look out for one another. and get each other's backs. we keep moving forward. defined by values and ideals
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that have been a light to all humanity. we have to see ourselves in each other, because we all got families we love. and we all have hopes for their better future. and we lose sight of that sometimes and thanksgiving say good time for us to remember that. we have a lot more in common than divides us. the holidays are also a time when it is even more important to reach out to those who need a helping hand. i believe we're judged by how we care for the poor and the vulnerable, the sick and the elderly, the immigrant and the refugee, everybody is trying to get a second chance. i believe that in order to truly live up to those ideals we have to continually fight discrimination in all its forms and always show the world that america's a generous and giving country. should also make sure everyone has something to eat on thanksgiving. of course, except the turkeys, because they're already stuffed. so later today, the -- so later
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today the obama family will participate in our traditional thanksgiving service project, and when somebody at your table tells you you've been hogging all the side dishes and you can't have any more, i hope you respond with a creed that sums up the spirit of a hungry people, yes, we cran. that was good. you don't think that's funny? look, i know there is some bad ones in here, but this is last time i'm doing this, so we're not leaving any room for leftovers. let me just say -- how am i doing? good? let me just say one last thing before i spare these turkeys' lives, on this thanksgiving, i want to express my sincere gratitude to the american people for the trust that you've placed in me over these last eight
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years and the incredible kindness that you've shown my family. on behalf of michelle, and my mother-in-law, and our girls, we want to thank you so very, very much. and now, from the rose garden, tater and tot will go to their new home at virginia tech, which is admittedly a bit hokey. they'll get to live out their natural lives at a new facility called gobbler's rest, where students and veterinarians will care for them, and so let's get on with the pardon because it is wednesday afternoon and everybody knows that thanksgiving traffic can put people in a fowl mood. happy thanksgiving, everybody. let's go pardon these turkeys. come on, guys, come on. [ applause ] >> all right.
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okay. now, remind me, is this tater or tot? >> tot. >> tot. >> i'm signing documents for tater also. >> yes, sir. >> i should stand on this side, so everybody can see it. tot, i hereby pardon you
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menu. this sounds like a recipe for disaster to you. let's bring in our go-to on these matters, steven peltrow. >> happy thanksgiving. >> same to you. should i just avoid talking about politics at the thanksgiving table? should i duck it? >> tyler, definitely not. i think that after this election season, it's really important that we come to the table and be prepared to listen to each other. we've been in these echo chambers called facebook and twitter where we've been shouting at everyone who believes in the same things that we do, and it's just gotten completely out of control. so i hope people will come, sit down and be prepared to do something which we have not done in a long time, which is to listen to each other, and to speak with an open heart without an agenda, without calling people names, so no name calling. >> my mother always taught me there are three things you don't talk about, politics, religion and sex. but it sounds like you are
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suggesting that it is okay to talk about politics but to do it in a polite way. >> in a sexy way. >> a sexy way, a religious way -- no. what i think is probably most important is that a host understands who is coming from their family. if it has been a really brutal battle within your family and you have trump supporters and clinton supporters, you may want to say, we're just not going to talk about politics at all, it's politics free. but it's so important to democracy for us to have this kind of discourse that i do want to encourage people to have conversations that are civil. you know, we just heard the president talking, and he was talking politics, but he used humor in all of that, and that really helps make points but also helps to connect us and sort of bring humanity out of these kinds of situations. i also think we can ask people, rather than saying you're a racist for voting for donald trump or you're a crook for voting for hillary clinton, make it more open ended. explain to me why you voted for
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the person you did and then have a conversation. >> that sound great on paper, steven. let's say you get down that road and it's not as polite as you hope. do you just say pass the gravy i and hope you switch conversations forever? >> i like people to have safe questions, and i mean questions you can drop in at a moment's notice to divert the conversation. a friend of mine in los angeles has about 200 of his friends who have contributed safe questions which include everything from when did you and dad meet? when did the grandparents meet, to how many hours can we talk about family feud until our heads explode? probably the most tactical thing you can do is know a little about the people around the table. if someone got a new job, a new promotion, graduated, ask them about those events and that will help facilitate a different conversation. you can be abrupt in it if it gets a little out of hand. >> a little small talk toolkit.
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>> yes. just in terms of practice, there is this art project out of the west coast. it's called "not at the dinner table." and people are calling into a number, you can google it, and you can explain what your gripe is. it's anonymous. you can totally -- yeah. >> we're out of time, and i don't mean to be rude to mr. manners, of all people. we thank you. happy thanksgiving. happy thanksgiving to everybody. >> yes. >> including you guys. >> thank you. "closing bell" starts right now. hi, everybody, welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm bill griffeth. she got the flu shot, my wife got the flu shot, i thought i was covered. i was misinformed. look what i found when i got back.

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