tv Fast Money CNBC November 23, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
>> what about you, kelly? >> you know, i'm going to try to participate in black friday, small business saturday, cybermonday and giving -- >> very nice. >> i don't know why. i feel seized. >> nice. >> thank you for joining us, colin. good luck with everything. be sure to tune into a special black friday edition of "closing bell," 12:00 p.m. eastern. happy thanksgiving, everybody. "fast money" starts now. breaking news. that is a picture of people making a whole lot of money in the markets. the dow, s&p and russell closing at record highs again. the stunning trump rally rages on. since the election, the dow and s&p have surged 4 and 3% respectfully. small cap stocks up for 14 straight days. our goal tonight, as simple as it gets. buy, sell or hold. what names can you still own in this trump rally? start off with some of the winners here. these are stunning returns, just since the election. goldman sachs, up 17%. target up 17%.
freeport mac up 16% and caterpillar up 16%. >> target is still interesting. mel, welcome back. target had a great quarter. i know it's not nearly as interesting as goldman sachs or freeport mac or caterpillar up 50% this year. but target to me seems like they got their -- they got their feet back underneath them and it manifested itself in the last quarter. the technology is much better. i think they've separated themselves some walmart. out of those four names, that's probably the name with the most up side right now. >> anybody like target as well? >> i like target store. i think short-term target is a name to own. long-term investors can look at this tape and say, look, if everything pans out accordingly, to the plan, people are going to do fine. the market will continue -- >> according to the planning of the trump plan? >> we're trading on combinatiexs right now. banks trading on expectations of dodd/frank reform. biotech names trading on expectations of better pricing.
move down the list. expectations have pushed stocks, in my opinion, in the near-term, to levels that i don't believe this rally is not sustainable, straight-up. so i think you pull back a little bit. i think that's fair. and to speak to that, i would be a buyer of phillip morris. i owns reynolds american. i think there is value added by that. >> we should note that phillip morris is not on that list of winners, because it's on our list of losers. we'll show you in a minute. down 9% since the election. >> what were the yield stocks or defensive stocks. i mentioned last week, clorox and some names are actually oversold and are back to value territory. so as i look at a market, first of all, it's amazing everybody wanted financials to lead us to the next phase. they're leading us here. so people who discount the fact that, boy, it's just really banks and a few minors, this is what the market needed to do. i don't think you can discount the fact that industrials and banks are actually leading the market higher and that is very encouraging. but too much too fast. >> >> so that rotation for now is down into these winners? >> i think it should be done for
now. those are the names that -- >> it should be. but does that mean you believe they'll probably go higher anyway? >> yeah, i probably -- i probably would see them going a little bit higher. but they don't ring the bell at the top. you know we always say that on trading shows. xlf, xli. you've got to lock in profits. i was watching. uri long from high 70s, sold it, because it just wasn't popping any more. for me, once it runs out of momentum, it could move sideways. it was actually up today, i sold it yesterday. it was up today. is there more juice left? yes. is there a hunt for performance, it's a year-end. maybe so. but i think you're getting greedy. >> so you look at a name like a goldman sachs up 17% and caterpillar, you would say fade that. >> i would say fade financials, fade industrials. tim and i talked about it yesterday. housing names, i got longer yesterday. kbh, i got longer phm, pulte. i think housing, underrated, underowned. >> i would say, mel, i think the resources space, though, is still not only underowned, but
largely very inexpensive. you look at where copper is trading around 260 a pound, relative to the past and the valuation of these names. freeport has been slowly paying down debt. this is a stock i did add to yesterday. and i think you have an opportunity. again, for -- there's a lot of people in these names from prices much higher up. and i think you have to be careful. >> in terms of the banks, there are a couple banks still not trading book value. we talk about them all of the time, citibank trading 80% of book. bank of america probably about the same. you juxtapose that with jpmorgan probably now 1.3%, 1. -- 140% of book or so. so i think there is a real good chance that the two aforementioned backs, citi and bank of america, trade up the book value. you asked about goldman sachs. this is a stock that's going to probably continue to run. it was eight years of people being scared to be in goldman sachs. that's all seemed to have gone by the wayside. i'm not saying it's right, by the way. but that apparently is what's happening. so the pile-in will seem to continue. i think the only thing that -- the only thing i see derailing
it, it's a fed meeting and january 20th when the inauguration takes place. >> that's the thing we don't know. we expect the market participants expect that the fed is going to raise interest rates in december. pretty much the scenario. what we don't know, what they're going to say in the press conference and the trajectory of the future rate hikes. is that a concern and the reason why you fade these winners? >> it's amazing how the fed concept -- not the fed themselves have gotten a free pass. we should be concerned about the fed and if the fed suddenly feels they are behind the curve, the wages print and next week a huge payroll number and i think that will give them a mind-set going into what people expect to -- >> it's not reits, it's deregulation and they're not going to roll ever everything. let's check some of the losers in the trump rally. newmont mining, sinking 12%, since the election. first solar down 11%. trip adviser down 19%. the aforementioned phillip morris down 9%. buying or selling any of these names? seaburg. >> no, none of them.
>> no touch. >> i don't like any of them. i don't get the mining names and selectively, maybe tip your toe in there. the metals and mining in general -- look at the move it's had. look at steel in general and say 250, 300% year-to-date move in steel is insane. we need to see global growth. >> the price of the commodities -- the rise in iron ore and copper. isn't that telling us there is global demand? >> speculative move. i not necessarily -- i think it's more speculative moving right now. it's "fast money," essentially getting into these trades. not necessarily that gold will demand is picked up. >> i do believe the risk. i hear tim's bullish call and other banks bullish on copper this week. i think the rink is to the down side, because if that infrastructure, whether it's $1 trillion or $2 trillion, the risk could be it's less. >> right. >> the risk could be it takes longer. what i do think are tax cuts will be easily digested for the republican-owned government right now. i do think those can come on a pretty quickly. that's bullish for our growth. global growth. but i do think copper is ahead.
>> here's the thing. newmont mining is down from 45 down to 31. that's a gold play. so it's really a function of what gold has done here. and you can't tell me all of the gold bugs out there, that we're not even more in an environment where you should be owning gold if we got more political uncertainty, we actually have inflation. i realize the dollar is rising and i realize interest rates are going higher and this is the reason for owning goelld. at some point, 11.80 is good for gold. >> would you look at gold? /a miner. >> if there ever was a reasonable time for gold, it's now. >> it's hard, though, to make the decision to buy gold at a time when markets are hitting all-time highs. that's just the fact of the matter for most people. >> i think people are looking at it wrong. but it doesn't matter what i think. you would rather be the latter. the one name on that list we didn't mentioned is trip adviser. and there is a reason why trip adviser is on that list. look at what priceline said a couple weeks before and then look at the trip adviser
quarter. not nearly anything remotely close. priceline trades at a better valuation. tripadvise sore 33 times earnings. >> all right. as stocks have rallied since the election, so have rates. could that jeopardize this market rally. gets talk with zeph spiro. >> i would like to discuss the broad markets. the major indexes from a technical perspective are very bu bullish. two weeks ago, the dow jones industrial average recorded an all time high. and the s&p 500 moved out to an all-time high. what i would like to do now, here is the chart of the s&p 500. i would like to drill down on the last five months, starting with right over here, this was in july. we got a breakout over here above the may 2015 high. that was the previous all-time high at 2134. this break outreinstated a prime
year uptrend and indicated the potential for significantly higher prices. just over the last -- since august, we have a minor day correction, that correction is defined by this trend line that began in late august. the correction brought us down to the 200-day moving average, just the beginning of this month. and then we got a rocket -- like a launch rally, that broke out and moved above this descending trend line. that signaled the end of the minor correction and actually led to a breakout above the august high, which just further reinforced the overall bullish composure. overall outlook is extremely positive in equities. does that mean we load up now, here? i don't think so. the broad markets, at least some -- most of the major indexes, are quite overextended in the short term. actually, the s&p 500 and russell 2000 for the last two-and-a-half weeks made higher lows consecutively every day. basically, we are expecting a
consolidation or pullback from current levels, which would be healthy prior to higher prices. so where are we going to pull back to? that is the question. the most obvious answer at this point is back to this trend line. i'm just going to extend it over here. a retest of this trend line would be the 2150 area. if we get a pullback to 2150 and it holds, that would be viewed as a buy opportunity. if prices break below that level, we could retest this area right here, which is the 2105 to 2115 area. >> zeph, we'll leave it there. thank you for your zev spiro. you look at levels a lot. >> 2134, that's -- that was a battleground. that's been a battleground support now. resistance when we were below it. that looks like if this market starts to revert back, that looks like an area of concern. that would be a level in the market that is a must-hold before you start to see people say, you know what, let me start
dumping everything and asking questions later. >> so tomorrow is what? it's turkey day. >> yes, it is. >> gobble, gobble. >> it's thanksgiving! >> everybody loves that. >> so people are going to be sitting around the table and saying, you know what, this trump rally, it's amazing. we're at record highs. do you think it's going to go higher? >> is that what they're talking about? who, ho, ho, ho. >> tomorrow is whatever -- november 24th, or whatever it is? so what are we close to, the year-end, right? we talked about this monthsing and the potential for an outside year to the up sed. as we get close to the end of the year, the 2134 level, last year's high, looms very huge. a close-up of there, and every technician on the planet, including my man, zev, who, by the way, that was his maiden voyage and he did a nice job. >> he did. >> awesome name, too. >> zev. it's not zed from pulp fiction. close above 21.35 this year,
very bullish. >> what will the answer be at your thanksgiving table? >> a lot of uncertainty and we're talking about the referendum in italy, the opec meeting, the fed. we're going to be talking about -- that's what we do at the seymour house. i'm the ambassador. if we look at the uncertainty out there, i agree with guy and we talked about seasonal effects, removing the election, even though you put in the guy a lot of people said would not be good for markets and clearly that's proven to be the opposite. you took away a lot of the concern for the market. the election is an event. removing it -- >> so higher to the end of the year. your guess at this point in time. >> i think we'll drift higher but you should own volatility below 13. that is a gift. >> gobble gobble. >> i'll stop! don't do it again! >> that's a challenge. coming up, a surprising but under the radar group of stocks surging on donald trump's big win could signal a broader group on the economy. what they are and if any are worth buying. and bear hunting with dr. doom himself, marc faber and
welcome back to "fast money." two stocks in the health care sector kicking off our top trades. juno therapeutic sinking as two patients died and eli lily getting hit as a key alzheimer's test fails. is there a vote for juno? >> it's specific. you can see kite and blue, the way they traded on the day. shows they voluntarily recalled this trial. lilly, they failed a trial for alzheimer's, which is a massive indication, and i look at biogen and the weakness. biogen, if you look at it the way that traded today, it shows they have a different subset, a much different indication, if you will. that stock is going to actually do really well. i like biogen but lilly is too early, although it held at $65 level where it really i think -- >> just to clarify, biogen also
has a potential experimental drug for alzheimer's. >> they have an alzheimer's -- >> it's a different mechanism as the lilly drug, and some people say it should be seen that with lilly gone, that's a competitor out of the market. >> phase one trial went very well. so they look at it -- you can say that, and that's why biogen, in a perfect world, probably would have been up on this news because competition would have been alleviated. biogen i think will do really well. they have a label update coming up soon, december 4th and after that, all-cleared by that stock. >> lilly still not cheap. it's been tough sledding for this stock for a long time. not like lilly was making 52-week highs and fell off the cliff today. it's been now a year, year-and-a-half since lilly made its all-time high. valuation to me is still expensive. alzheimer's is a huge deal. it was a huge deal for them. and this phase three miss is clearly not good. the one thing you can take away, it traded about ten times normal volume, which maybe have a short-term bottom but there are
not a lot of catalysts going forward but i still think the trajectory is lower. >> i think you have to measure what this means in terms of relevant earnings and the streets coming out, 5 to 15% right now in terms of the impact of this. so you can throw that on this valuation. and you can make an argument that this stock was overdone. you've -- and the problem is, the charters can probably say this is no man's land. you have a decent level back about mid 2014 but still needs to settle in mere. >> mark your calendars. the ceo of juno therapeutics, hans bishop. next up, trump appointed two members to the s.e.c.'s transition team and could be good news for time warner and at&t. jeffy eisenach and mark jamison both supported at&t's attempt to purchase in 2011, even though the deal was blocked. what does this mean for time warner and at&t, could there be
more big deals under trump than we thought? >> i think these deals are coming back and you saw people react and they sold off all of the names involved in the deals. you saw them sell off at&t, time warner. i think the deals are coming back. i think people said i'm going to write them off. it's not going to be trump. or even if it is trump, everyone saw him as being anti this -- this huge deal right here. i think people have missed it. i think people are going to get back into it. another huge deal. monsanto. i'm in monsanto. if you look at sessions, who is the attorney general, he is going to be more lenient on these type of deals. there is tremendous up side on all of these mega deals. >> steve, wouldn't, though -- if you look at how at&t traded on the announcement of the deal, i mean, on some level, you can make an argument people would like to not see this deal happen. there is certainly some view out there, and look how the stock performed. not like huh -- >> the opposite side of it, time warner, i think that if -- if this deal gets done -- >> that makes sense. why is at&t rallying when, in fact, when this deal was announced, it was seen as a huge
negative for that stock. >> real quick, not to interrupt. one caveat there was it coincided with rates exploding to the up side. so a lot of people that got into at&t for the dividend yield play, i think got out of it, because yields were starting to move the other way. but with that said, i hear what you're saying. >> i mean, the question is, does it get done. will there be a big grass roots campaign that essentially goes after it and says, we're not going to allow this to go throu through. did he already squash the at&t -- >> all this rhetoric goes out of the window, he's backed off so many things already. so i don't think he's going to leave it to the professionals you open this segment up to decide. >> all right. still ahead, warren buffett actively campaigned against donald trump, but is making a killing after a trump win. how much and why trump could soon be warren buffett's new bff. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> i'm going to kill the bear! >> that's exactly what down 19,000 has done to the permabears. so will the biggest bear of all,
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welcome back to "fast money." another day, another record on wall street. the dow and s&p both closing at a new high. the small cap russell is in its longest winning streak in two decades. here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. it is the obscure group of stocks benefitting from the trump bump and could be saying big things about the economy. we'll give you the names. and warren buffett advocated for hillary clinton during the
campaign but reaping benefits from the victory. should warren jump on the bandwagon? first we start off with the safety trade. the bond breakdown continuing today with the tlt hitting a 2016 low. that etf is down 10% since the election. then there's gold. reaching the critical 12,000 level. it is down nearly 100 bucks since the election. and the pain has spread to a number of the traditionally safe sectors. utilities, consumer staples, real estate, the worst performers. although it is worth noting in the last couple days, these sectors have held up pretty well. tim, what do you say? >> utilities have a place in every portfolio. and really comes down to the valuations. i think the fact that big pullbacks in utilities and mlps are opportunities to buy and people own them for a horizon period of investing. when it comes to gold, i think we have had that chat. i think you have to have some place for gold but can't be emotional and buy that blowoff top or a lot of people that bought the post brexit high are selling it now. at this point, i think you've got to hold in your gold
position. >> it is amazing to think that before the election or just on the eve of the election, the ten-year yield was at 1.73 or so. and now it's at 2.3 or so. i mean -- >> the move has been unbelievable. that's a crazy move in a short amount of time and we can have an argument as to why it's happened. i don't know if it matters at this point. a lot of people think it's because globally the economies are improving. but a move of that magnitude has currency ramifications and you're seeing it across the globe. i think that's extraordinarily destabilizing. the market doesn't care. look at a name like clorox, everybody's darling the last couple years until the last six months where it went from $1.40 to current levels. it's getting toward levels where valuation makes sense. wells fargo made a coverage on a number of names, all market-perform, i get it. but wells -- clorox, to me, is a name that absolutely could play catchup in the new year. >> wrote do you stabbed on utilities, since you've been in southern for so long or had
been. >> i think -- you said a couple minutes ago the pace of the fed, if they give indication on what the pace is going to be like. for the extraek active of high errates. that's important for utilities. if we hear it's going to be slower, you're going to get a chance on utilities. right now, people as tim said are going to hold gold, as a certain amount of their portfolio. they're going to hold utilities as a certain amount of the portfolio. but i think you have to look for indications from the fed to see if there is an all-clear, at least a nibble again. >> quick on safety. >> i don't think we get that, steve. i think that utilities could be an absolute buy here. when you look in an -- a vacuum. things have moved too quickly. i believe financials -- positive sentiment. but utilities, you could still own, especially given the fact there has been so much repositioning that's happened. a lot of repositioning that's caused destruction in that particular sector. >> the surge in stocks has been a slap in the face to many of the market naysayers out there. take a listen to a noted bear, marc faber, said in the last couple years.
>> i think it's very likely we're seeing in the next 12 months an '87 type of crash and i suspect it will be even worse. i think we are kind of in the late stage rally. and that we're probably not going to get the correction, but more likely a bear market that will be 20 to 30% at some point. i don't think that u.s. stocks are attractive by any measurement. i think we can easily get back five years of capital gains, which would take the market down to around 1100. >> as you saw on that charmt, te s&p 500 has gone up over that time frame. is he ready to change his tune? let's go to marc faber. always a pleasure to speak with you. >> yes, thank you very much for having me on your show. >> i understand that you --
>> and thank you for the advertising. >> that you -- that you for a long time thought the market is fully valued, but at this point, can you admit you have been fighting this tape? it's just been working against you. >> well, i mean, yes and no. on the one hand, the market has made a new high. but we are saying at around 2,200. in may 2015, we were at 2,134. it's not the huge increase. and it's been driven by very few stocks. it's not been driven by the majority of shares. and i can point out to you many, many shares that are down 20% from the highs. or that were down more than 20% of the highs until just recently, and then now a rebound. but have failed to make new highs. so the market, in my opinion, is
becoming very interesting for stock pickers. not for index funds. and there will be stocks that will go up, and groups that will go up. and others will go down. and the majority of investors, maybe you can find this out easily, since you're cnbc. the majority of investors haven't made any money in the last 12 months. >> okay. now, you have said in the past you could see the market falling between 15 and 20%. and even in that environment, you just said you think there are sectors in stocks that go higher. so what do you see as a good buy right now, which would probably really pique people's attention, since you're one of the biggest bears on wall street. >> well, this year we have been very positive about gold and precious metals. and gold shares and precious metals shares. and i mean, this fights the setback which -- they are still
up very substantially. at the end of last year, you could buy at $5, and it's still around $15 now, even though it's come down from $24 to the current level. so there have been huge gains. and i think this correction offers an opportunity for investors to, again, end the precious metal sector. then we have oil and oil service in companies. and anything that has to do with -- let's say basic industries that are reasonably attractive. i think that is a sector that will also perform quite well. whereas the so-called fang stocks, facebook, amazon, netflix, these stocks are gone. they're not going to perform well for you. so you have to rearrange your portfolio. and then i would also say, in the current environment, and the
victory of mr. trump, it's very bullish for emerging markets. >> which ones in particular do you like? >> i like asian markets and some of them have actually performed very well. thailand is up 15%. the philippines, indonesia are up strongly this year. and vietnam hasn't done all that well, or it's done okay. especially the economic performance has been fantastic. and with the trump, i believe that there will be a -- in asia. in other words, tensions between the u.s. and china and other countries will be reduced, and that should be favorable for the asian stock market. i also think the victory of mr. trump is very bullish for central asia and for russia. >> hey, mark, it's tim. so what is the biggest
misperception of china right now and the currency last night, one of the biggest moves we have seen when people have been very focused on china. >> well, i think that as i explained in the past, we have a huge credit bubble in china. that -- there's no question about this. on the other hand, i mean, if you go through asia or you travel around the world, and you look at all of the chinese travelers, these are not people that borrow money to travel. they have cash. and so on the one hand, you have a little credit in the system in china. on the other hand, you have also a lot of cash and deposits. and how it will be resolved in the end is debatable. but i think that the chinese economy will not collapse. and any collapses, it will be for two years, like in the great
depression in the u.s., and the recovery will get done. so from a longer term point of view, you want to be actually positive. >> right. >> about asia and china. >> okay. marc, we're going to leave it there. thank you so much for phoning in. we appreciate it. >> well, thank you so much. goodbye. >> marc faber with the gloom, boom and doom report. you know, it's something that was very interesting to me, was that in a world in which the s&p 500 could fall up to 20%, he likes oil services stocks. does that make sense to you? >> no, he's going with the commodities. i think that was -- >> yeah, yeah. basic industries. yeah. >> it's not. i mean, his thesis makes no sense. i would say corporate tax reform alone could add 10 to $15 in s&p earnings. $127 in earnings, put a 17 multiple on it or a little more than 17 where we're krenl trading right now, once we get confirmation that corporate tax reform will come through, the market is going to explode to the up side.
we're trading on expectations on it right now. we need confirmation for that move to -- i think long-term, the market -- >> plus he's looking at every permit being okayed. so when he's looking at oil services, he's looking at more and more activity. but what i found interesting was his bullishness on asia. eems are asian-heavy. i bought those right off the election, they're down 4%, but i do believe it's a consensus trade to sell them. i was actually going to buy more today. but i wanted to get a little time to breathe. >> is it hard to listen to somebody like faber, who has been on saying the same message over and over and over again, as we have -- we've had our ups ask downs. >> i don't find it hard to listen to him. peter schiff on monday, mr. faber tonight. they are talking about effectively the same thing. and what they all will say, the different degrees with each guy, is that they can't tell you what is going to happen. and therein lies the rub. one of the things we said, they might be right, but they might be right from s&p 2500, 2600. there is absolutely no way of knowing. and until somebody can tell me the catalyst -- and by the way,
i thought i have seen it a number of times over the last year, year-and-a-half. you know, it's just interesting conversation. but it doesn't really help -- it doesn't help you to make money. >> well, the surgeon stocks has made the cost of insuring your portfolio against decline as cheap as it's been in a while. so is now a good time to buy some protection? mike coe joins us in austin with a vix road map. mike. >> yeah, i think it really is. it's interesting, because, of course, most people who follow the vix realize that the vix index will tend to drop as stocks rise and the vix will go much higher. we can take a look at that and in situations like the one we have had, where we have very low volatility, the market is trading at all-time highs, the vix is very low. what's that telling you is the cost of insuring your portfolio is actually quite cheap. and the thing is, not only are you buying inexpensive insurance, but when stocks are elevated. when we look, we can see if the vix is above 18, you probably want to be a better seller of options than a buyer of them. between 13 and 18, kind of a no
man's land, and we may be migrating from one regime to another. below 13, this surabaya usually is a pretty good time. stock prices high, insurance costs very low. and that is really the time you want to be thinking about getting some insurance. >> all right. thanks a lot for that, mike. mike coe in austin. for more "options action," check out the full show. our next full show is next friday. >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. happy turkey day. next friday, because we're off for gobble gobble, which is tomorrow, of course. still ahead. millions of americans will be heading to the stores this holiday weekend. so what will some of the retail winners and losers be? a top hedge fund manager weighs in. and golf stocks. dom chu here with a special report. dom. >> hey, melissa -- whoa, my backswing! we're going to see if we can take a swing and not whiff at the golf trade. that story and more coming up next on "fast money."
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and when that gets enacted, i'll be a little worse off, and believe me, i can take it. and you'll be better off. >> that was warren buffett, campaigning for hillary clinton back in august. and while the election didn't turn out how buffett expected, it's not all bad news for the oracle of omaha. it's actually been pretty good. check out some of buffett's holdings, financials like wells fargo up 15%. american express up 8%. u.s. bank corp up 10% and goldman sachs up a whopping 17%. and buffett announcing just this month that he bought into four of the major airlines, those names all soaring double digits. and then today, deere. buffett bought into that stock at the beginning of the year and selling in the last two quarters. will trump and buffett become bffs? guy adami. >> no is the answer to that. in terms of his stocks, i mean, american express is interesting. it's up, but he got into american express a long ways back and that has not worked out. my sense, he's still under water with that one. the last quarter american
express one of the best they have had in the last couple years. i think that's interesting. in terms of u.s. bank corp, that's wunl one bank i've liked for a long time. are they going to be bffs? absolutely not. is mr. trump going to help the stocks justified named? probably yes. >> if you look at some of these stocks, and reminding, looking at a quarterly filing from september 30th, no indication on where the positioning is now. you shouldn't be buying airline stocks when you hear that based on a september end. having said that, the airlines were already starting to run well before this election. he wasn't having a trump kind of man hug in the airline sector based upon something trump has done. i think the industrials have gotten a boost but airlines were cheap and trading on recession navy levels. the move they have had since they announced that, buffett really took these positions, i think is outsized. moved too far, too fast. i would be taking profits in the airlines, i know we have talked about quite a bit. it's not a name i want to step into. i hear you, save has been the outperformer and made new highs, basically, took out its april
highs. the underimportantlier, delta or jetblue. i still would rather be with the performer, save. >> all right. another. group of stocks, benefitting from the trump bump, gold stocks. who better to break it down than our enthusiast, dom chu. >> not even close to being a golf pro. i'm a passionate golfer. i would like to see the industry do well. over the past few years, an industry that hasn't done well. secular decline in the number of golfers out there. this year, i want positive point out it's become a bit of a better story. you take a look at some of these stocks that have done really well so far this year and this is just since the election. some of the pure plays we talk about that are at least $1 billion in size. first of all, akutsche net, the owner of titleist, just went public at the end of last month, up 13% just since the election. california away golf, the established. this stock is one that hasn't traded spectacularly high or low.
it's done pretty well. however, you can see they're up 10% since the election. we use these two mostly as the proxies for the overall health of the market, because they're the only two pure play equipment companies out there. if you look at other ones, club corp is another one, $800 million company. it owns or operates or manages or leases a lot of golf country clubs, basically. firestone for golf fans out there in ohio, play a tournament every year. a couple places throughout the country. and american golf is a golf management company. another one that does is new castle investment, more of a reach that has a golf court management arm. those are some of the ways investors are playing it. those are smaller cap stocks. but still, titleist, akutschenet and callaway. >> do we think is this a golf rally or rich person's rally, a luxury rally? >> of course, it's a -- a rich person's sport. >> should we see this trend for across -- >> two other areas. >> tiffany. >> lbmh.
>> because i think -- that's -- >> 10sotheby's. >> so if you want to play that game, i do think you can connect those dots. and i think the art market will come back with a vengeance. and we talked about sotheby's last week, one of those dare i say it, hokey friday stock-picking things we did. but sotheby's was the one for the reasons we outlined. >> "would you rather". >> "would you rather me" sort of subtly. >> you saw nike move away from the hardware. they're still doing shoes, apparel. but the other way to play it, as well, is dick's with sports authority going out. they have got a lot of leverage. they're not a direct play to dom's point. but i would play it with either callaway or dks. >> you've got to wonder if nike regrets pulling the plug on its golf business. >> research that tracks this traffic, they're seeing that year-to-date, golf rounds played, so a measure of volume, if you will, is up just .04 of
1%. it's key, because it's the first time we have seen it actually be positive on a year-to-date basis. it's not going gang busters, but may show signs of stabilization. >> we have guys cutting out work at cnbc. >> notdom, though. not dom. >> no idea. but here's the broader point to you guys. if this is -- golf is one of the most discretionary of activities. you've got to have money, and you've got to be willing to spend it. so if there is a case where this trump administration coming in may have opened up some of the uncertainty or closed off some of the uncertainty, rather, maybe people spend more and remember, these are luxury type products, to guy's point. >> i wonder if it's a rich person's trade. country club have memberships open up across the board. wall street is not joining country clubs this year, period. bonuses are horrible. it's more of a brood-base. i think it's an american play. i think there are people in every pocket of society now playing golf.
and i think tiger woods is a guy that brought that to the table. we saw massive acceleration in all demographics buying golf supplies. and i think that in general, i like that dick's call here. i think that's a name you buy. >> by the way, melissa, just to put a cap on this for you guys, it is public access golf. public golf courses that are driving the growth. >> interesting. all right. thank you, dom. >> very welcome. >> dom chu. still ahead, retail stocks surging since the election. so why is one hedge fund manager calling it the space a trap? he'll be here to explain. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.. they may want the latest products and services, but they demand the best shopping experiences. they're your customers. and by blending physical with digital, cognizant is helping 8 of the 10 largest u.s. retailers meet their demands with more responsive retail models... ones that transcend channels and locations, anticipate expectations... creating new ways to engage at every imaginable touch-point. it's a new day in retail, and together, we're building the store of the future. digital works for retail.
welcome back to "fast money." time for our move of the day. check out the xrt, the retail etf continuing its post election surge, up 9% in the past month and making retail stocks some of the hottest trump trades. this as stores gear up for another black friday, bracing themselves for the chaos to come. but just the shoppers are flocking to a battleground as investors crowd into what could be a retail trap of their own. ward davis is here to give us the retail bets and busts of this trump rally. david, great to have you with us. >> thanks very much. >> is it a matter of too far, too fast, with no fundamentals behind it? >> i think so.
there is definitely some real reasons behind the rally. not just in retail but in consumer discretionary. the big hidden asset, if you will, coming into this election was demographics. you have 92 million millennials, average age is 25 years old and the increase in spending when they go from households 21 to 25 to 25 to 35 is a 50% increase in spending. so whoever won the election was going to inherit this big huge demographic asset. the key is getting an economic policy put in place that's going to free up these millennials, get them out of their proverbial basements and get them to spend. so you needed to create jobs, high-paying jobs and get them to spend. clearly, the market is discounting that trump's policies are going to really stimulate that millennial consumer, and trigger a big spending boom. >> so, ward, let's walk through some of the ones you like right now. and the ones that are just a trap. >> yeah. well, i'll start with the traps first. i think there have been some big, big moves in things like
department stores. you look at whether it's dillards, kohl's, jcpenney, these stocks are all up 21, 20, 26%. since the election result. and you take a step back and you say, what has been really the biggest hindrance to these businesses and why they have had negative sales growth for the last several quarters. and that's because of the -- of really amazon and a lot of other big online retailers. trump can't make everything great again. he can't make all these conventional old-world retail businessis great again. amazon this year is going to take more dollars out of apparel and home-related goods than they did last year. and in 2017, they're going to take more dollars out still. at a time when all these department stores are still seeing declining rates of total sales volume. so the rates of same-store sales decline, all else equal, is actually going to accelerate -- >> does that make amazon a winner, in your view, or not necessarily? >> i think so.
amazon still, i think, in relatively the early innings of its big share grab. you know, that stock is off, you know, 1 or 2% since the election. our view is that if everything is going to be good, the consumer is going to feel better, with lower tax rates. you should still see a big benefit at amazon. we really like amazon, ultimately think they'll be the big winner. >> your other picks. >> one of our best ideas is kate spade. we wrote a letter to the board last week. we have been very disappointed with how they have managed margins in particular. they have operating profitability that's well below its peer group. but it's a business that's continued to grow. and it resonates well with this millennial. i have three teenage daughters. and if i ask them, you know, what kind of bag would they wear -- they don't want to wear a coach or a corps. they would prefer a kate spade bag. maybe this company would be more valuable in the hands of a
strategic buyer. >> okay. ward, we're going to leave it there. thanks for joining us. ward davis. >> i like kate spade bags. >> prefers it over coach in general, right? >> yes. well, and a good louis vuitton bag, as well. can't go wrong. just saying. >> can you give us -- >> kate spade, round turn, $15 at the beginning of the year. round turn at 15. buy it on the fly for the reaches he just mentioned. there you go. >> next, our traders look at the stocks they say deserve a second chance. find out what they are and much more when "fast money" returns.
i hereby pardon you from the thanksgiving table. >> that was tot and president obama. pardoning tot. so in lieu of the "final trade," we ask the traders which stocks they would pardon for thanksgiving. we call it "second chance stocks." tim, kick it off with you. >> gm. october sales were good. they have 19% market share. >> seaburg. >> bristol meyer. they lost mid year to merck on front line lung cancer. this is a stock worth buying here. >> >> grasso.
>> mergence, monsanto. possible upside. >> what is this music? >> patsy cline! >> okay, okay! >> two years digitalized medical records. >> i'm mooels melissa lee.watch. see you back here on monday. have a great thanksgiving. gobble, gobble. "mad money" starts now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. when is a loss a good loss? when is it a bad loss