Skip to main content

tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  November 28, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EST

1:00 pm
i love the fact that i can talk about clorox as being good. last week i would have talked about fang. and then the week before i could talk about the banks. you talk about the retailers. the international despite the dollar. this is good. now, today david faber is, like, why don't you be like trump? people are believing. that makes a difference. >> thanks for being here. >> thank you. >> jim cramer with markets closing in three hours, let's get to "power lunch." >> scott, thank you very much. tyler mathisen here. a record weekend at the mall. what can you expect on this the first day post-thanksgiving? cyber-monday they call it. inside new numbers straight ahead. plus, could america's improving relations with cuba be trumped by a new president? we're live in havana with the very latest there. and we found a giant diamond in the rough among luxury retailers. stick around, everybody.
1:01 pm
"power lunch" begins right now. i'm melissa lee. donald trump expected to meet with former cia director general david petraeus later today and expected to meet with mitt romney and senator bob corker tomorrow. the supreme court refusing to hear alan stanford's appeal to overturn his 110-year prison sentence and the wall street rally is on pause. all three major averages in the red off record highs set on monday. more on the market in just one second. first, we have breaking news. let's get to sue herrera for the latest. >> news conference ongoing right now at ohio state university following an incident that occurred earlier this morning when the campus basically put in place a shelter in place order. you're taking a look at the live shot by our nbc affiliate. that's one of the doctors talking about the people who have been injured. this morning's attack initially
1:02 pm
was thought to be an active shooter. that's what was tweeted out. however, as new developments come in, apparently it was a planned attack where two men in a car deliberately plowed into a group of students, a very big crowd apparently. one of them was a somali refugee thought to be an ohio state university student. he reportedly was shot. the second suspect fled to a garage and was arrested. also they used a butcher's knife to cut people which accounts for officials saying a short time ago that the injuries were caused by a car and by a knife. now we have confirmation of the way those injuries were inflicted by ohio state university officials and law enforcement officials. ten people were transported to local hospitals. most of them are stable. we're still getting an update on that. one of them is apparently still in critical condition. most of those injuries are reportedly at last hearing were
1:03 pm
nonlife threatening except for that person who is in critical condition. so it was a planned attack. two men in a car deliberately plowed into a crowd of students. one man got out of the car and started to use a knife to inflict more injuries. the other fled to a parking garage and was arrested by police. so we're going to listen into the news conference. that is the president of the university speaking right now. we'll get back to you when we have more information on this situation. >> all right, sue. sue herrera, thank you very much. let's get back to the market where stocks are retreating just a little bit from those recent highs even as investor bullishness is going strong. so can what everyone is calling the trump rally continue? bob pisani is following the action at the new york stock exchange. >> we're pulling back a little and we should. remind everyone of the enormous gains we've had since the election. we're up 13% with the russell 2,000. up 3.8% with the s&p 500.
1:04 pm
there's the russell on the white line here. big gains here. the retail investors turned very bullish. that's got me a little concerned here. aaei, a weekly survey, 50% bullish. is that a lot? that's highest in nearly two years. remember, these are contrarian indicators. bullish indicators associated with short-term market tops. professionals are getting more bullish. merrill lynch did a survey. 35% expect the economy to improve over the next year and cash levels dropping 6% in october. now it's dropped to 5%. biggest drop since august of 2009. there's a lot of potential issues. the dollar strength could be a major problem particularly for china, particularly for emerging markets. we could get more aggressive rate hikes than anticipated by the fed. we could catch a trade war. remember, the markets rallying on stimulus, tax cuts, reduced regulations, those are off many,
1:05 pm
many months and maybe 2018 events. a lot can happen between now and then. markets already looking more cautious. look at the kbe. bank stocks moved up in first two weeks after the election and the kbe has been moving sideways since then. no big rallies in the last week. same with the bond yields. the big rise occurred in the two weeks after the election. last week yields really flattened out around the 2.3%. markets already starting to slow down a little bit. maybe given the big moves we've had, that's a good thing right now. back to you. >> all right. thank you very much, bob. here is your stock stat of the day despite today's minor losses. the dow is still on pace for 1,000-point gain for the month of november. there are only 30 days in november. did you know that? 30 days is all there are. many of those gains are coming post-election as you probably know so will the trump rally continue or have we moved too far too fast? joining us is scott rend with wells fargo and craig columbus
1:06 pm
with tower square investment management. craig, let me begin with you. i note that you have 20% in cash. why? have you been raising cash lately or what? >> some of these trump changes are overextended. we're trading 17 times forward s&p earnings. how much more multiple expansion can you expect next year particularly since the equity market has not yet had its price adjustment to this notion of normalization of rates, which was the very scenario that candidate trump warned about. so more fed rate hikes and bond market disciplining the notion of inflation are things that can temper stimulus so we're ahead of ourselves here. >> how about, you scot? >> tyler, i think i would be hesitant to attribute this rally all to donald trump. i mean, based on our year end target range that we set earlier
1:07 pm
in the year, we're in that range now and i think we would make the argument that whether hillary clinton or donald trump would have won, the market would be right where it is maybe not right now but certainly by the end of the year. i think what's likely to happen here and once again this is unchanged from our outlook prior to the election is that the s&p 500 in 2017 probably makes its highs around 2300 or a touch more around the middle of the year but certainly you would argue that things like financials that benefited greatly because less regulation, steeper yield curve, those sorts of things. some of the aspects of this rally you could attribute to donald trump, but i think the underlying fundamentals have gotten us to this point and that's what the market is trading on because as bob pisani pointed out, a lot of these trump proposals, that's a 2018 or beyond story. >> we cast you as a bull, scott. but you have the same target for
1:08 pm
2017. that's as much as 4% to the upside for next year. what in your view is the greatest risk to the markets? is it a quickly rising dollar? is it an interest rate scenario that gets a little too hot too fast? >> i think that what's going to happen in the second half of 2017 is the market will see more wage pressure than we've seen later and the market is going to start to worry that the federal reserve is potentially behind the curve here and that we're going to see more inflation in 2018 causing the fed to have to catch up so to speak. that's the concern in 2017 for the market and once again, i think we have a good six months, seven months here ahead of us but net net in 2017 versus 2016, you pointed it out. we're not looking for anything other than really a flat market. >> 2,300 is 100 points up on the s&p from here. craig, i want to come back to that question of cash at 20%.
1:09 pm
tell me whether you've been raising it. i'm not sure whether you answered that directly. and what would cause you to put some of that cash to work and where would you expect to put it to work? >> we have been raising some additional cash. that would be the notion of patience, right? i think it's all about entry and risk and reward from these levels. one of the points about global populism that is rarely made is that it's about better outcomes not just for capital but also for labor, right? that was the point about the wage pressure which was just made. if you asked me where would i put new capital? i do like japan. notion of stronger dollar and weaker yen can go forward and japan would be a big beneficiary of that relative to europe that would have lots of headline risk associated with it. >> have to leave it there. appreciate it. see you soon. >> thanks, ty. >> let's turn to cuba. thousands of mourners paying their final respects to castro.
1:10 pm
our michelle caruso-cabrera is live in havana. michelle? >> reporter: although he hasn't really ruled the country for ten years, fidel castro's presence loomed large over it and it was thought maybe once he was gone, his brother raul might be willing to do economic reforms besides the tiny ones done over the last couple years trying to provide more economic freedom here. it comes at a time of great uncertainty in the relationship between the united states and cuba. trump wants to see a tougher deal with cuba than the one president obama struck here. what would that mean for u.s. corporate interests? not necessarily that much. not that much has been done. you can count roughly 32 u.s. corporations who are doing some kind of business with cuba or trying to do business with cuba. roughly half of those are related to hospitality.
1:11 pm
direct airline flights ones to havana starting this week. one cruise line. one hotel management contract that we've seen. it's still very limited relative to the size and possibilities that could have been done here. there are three small banks that have issued mastercard credit cards that will work here. if you have a mastercard, it doesn't work here. it has to be from either nat bank, a bank in puerto rico or a bank in florida, banco popular. one of the loose ngs when it comes to loosening orders was to make it easier for companies like google and cisco to sell equipment here. the cuban government hasn't necessarily wanted to buy that equipment. my reporting indicates that google offered to give the cubans almost free access to the internet to build a big network for them so there could be more internet access here. but the cuban government was worried that equipment would be used for spying so the only thing that's happened is a small free location for students to go
1:12 pm
and use free high-speed internet but not in a central part of havana. it's on the outskirts. and we tried it last week. they are now making espresso pods from coffee here. it's small. if president-elect donald trump were to undo some of these things, there is a lot of effort made here but certainly not a lot of money that has been made here yet. and the issue is what happens now in terms of whether or not the cubans are going to be more willing to do things like foreign direct investment and equity ownership and things that a communist government that believes the government should control everything isn't really in their nature. that's a thing that happens to change here even if the embargo goes away. back to you. >> all right. michelle, thank you. michelle caruso-cabrera, we'll check in with you later in the show reporting live from havana, cuba. >> italian banks are showing
1:13 pm
sharp declines today amidst uncertainty concerning this sunday's referendum which would raise concerns over recapitalization of the banking system as a whole there. bonds they are hold wing whethe they can recapitalize. many banks are down as much as 80% this year weighing heavily on the european banking index. tyler looked at the shares very much to the downside in trading today. >> look at the price of banca popolare. how is this year stacking up and how can you profit from it? let's get to courtney reagan live at one of amazon's fulfillment centers. >> reporter: online sales on thanksgiving broke records. black friday sales broke records. consumers are not done yet.
1:14 pm
i have cyber-monday details coming up live from amazon when "power lunch" returns. so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade i've got 9 days left before retirement. we've been planning for this for a long time and we'll keep evolving things. so don't worry. knowing you is how edward jones
1:15 pm
makes sense of investing.
1:16 pm
122 million americans are expected to shop online today and one of those places will be amazon. we go to courtney reagan live at amazon in new jersey. >> 154 million americans shopped
1:17 pm
either in store, online or both. that's 3 million more than what we saw in 2015. a good lead in into cyber-monday and they believe today will be an historic day. it's young. amazon says that black friday this year did top black friday in 2015 in terms of items ordered. they aren't saying how cyber-monday sales and traffic are trending so far. it does have its own pretty high bar to eat. orders were up 40% from the prior year and prime day in july still stands as amazon's best day ever. now the natural retail federation expects that 36% of americans will shop today. up slightly from last year. even though black friday online sales blew past the bullish expectations increasing 22%, adobe says that cyber-monday sales are on track to hit record
1:18 pm
$3.4 billion today logging $540 million by just 10:00 a.m. now which offers all of the official sports leagues and more than 200 top collegiate e-commerce sites says sales are up 20% over last year's cyber-monday and if this trend continues, it will be a record day for fanatics. when it comes to website performance, so far so good for major retailers. we haven't heard about any outages but the day is still very young. back to you, tyler. >> let me ask you a couple questions. maybe you can answer, maybe you can't. what seems to be flying by you on the con vaveyer belts the mo? one item you see a lot of or what's the strangest item that you've seen? >> this fulfillment center is more than 1 million square feet. there are 13 miles of conveyer belts. i've seen a lot of variety in
1:19 pm
the products. i've seen everything from books about the trump presidency, that book was written fast, to just basic sports balls and i saw dolls. not any one specific retail doll and those amazon products. the amazon fire and echo. they are pushing those hard and offer good deals on those devices especially during these big event shopping days. >> thanks very much. courtney reagan in new jersey. it's been a big month for retail with s&p retail up nearly 11% since the election. children's place, office depot, cheekos and staples leading the way and which retail stock should be on your naughty or nice list? oliver, i'll start with you. there was interesting stat that caught my attention and that's over one-third of shoppers
1:20 pm
bought 100% of items on sale. i thought they marked stuff down because you might full a full price item into your shopping cart as well. >> promotions are a huge part of what shoppers care about. we see that with the rise of tjx and ross. when you think of black friday and cyber-monday, promotions are important. a permanent part of what americans want. the key factor here is retailers planning for promotions and, b, really coming up with innovative ways to promote that don't damage the brand in the long-term. we expect this to continue to happen. unfortunately weather has not been 100% cooperative so we're seeing a lot of deeper promotions in the apparel universe. you really have to promote to get traffic. >> for instance, i was in the mall on black friday myself doing my own channel check so to speak. a store like gap for instance,
1:21 pm
50% off all merchandise in store. everything in the store was 50% off. are margins that good that these retailers can say 50% or 30% off across the board and still do okay for this holiday shopping season? >> as we look across the universe, that 50% off is high. i would say above 40% is a big deal. i would also say when a store is offering the entire assortment at a percentage off, that's worrisome too. if you think about gap specifically, they've been in the middle of a fashion change at gap, old navy and banana republic. as we look at apparel and think about fashion content there, it's been tough. we like american eagle. i bought denim there this weekend. the jogger denim, functional denim, it's all about leggings still and at leisure. that product is working. there's very selective things working in the marketplace right now. >> i'm all about the leggings. i want to get your thought on that if you would. specifically about walmart.
1:22 pm
>> walmart, yeah. they had a very good run this weekend. target had a decent run. walmart is doing a lot of business online. pushing amazon and when they were talking about the markdowns in your question, he's exactly right. if you can sell everything 30% off you make full gross margin. average 30, you're thrilled. if you're at 40% off, it's not great but it's acceptable. it's beyond that where it all goes to heck in a hand basket. when you look at something like walmart pushing the envelope trying to win online. they're trying to be competitive with amazon. i can't believe courtney went to the dark side and is over at amazon's distribution center. that's the people that is changing the world of retailing. this used to be the smallest retail day of the holiday shopping season before we had the internet. nobody went shopping on the monday after black friday. now it's one of the biggest shopping days of the season and so is thanksgiving. what does that tell you? that's all internet sales.
1:23 pm
all of the growth this year came on the internet. the internet is about 15% of the business. it was up 20% over this holiday weekend. that's 3% growth and that's all we got. retail the rest was flat. that's going to be probably the good news because i suspect traffic this weekend, which was pretty flat in brick and mortgagoe -- mortar won't be down. it was down double digits already in november until we got to this point. and it's probably going to be down mid to high single digits for the rest of the fourth quarter if you look at traffic. >> we have to leave it there. jan, oliver, thanks so much. >> still ahead, 'tis the season for reindeer pizza delivery in japan. that's if the pizza actually makes it to its destination. >> i think it's reindeer delivery. >> i don't think it's reindeer
1:24 pm
pizza. there you go.
1:25 pm
what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
1:26 pm
it's been over 100 years since the first stock index was created, as a benchmark for average. yet a lot of people still build portfolios with strategies that just track the benchmarks. but investing isn't about achieving average. it's about achieving goals. and invesco believes doing that today requires the art and expertise of high-conviction investing. translation? why invest in average? check this out. rudolph may have a new job this season delivering pizza. domino's japan is training reindeer to bring pizzas to customers in a snowy part of the country. they are trying out mounting case on the back of the animals.
1:27 pm
or to drag a sleigh. the pizza falls off. >> do you want a pizza riding around on a you know what for however long bouncing around back there? the sled idea might be okay. >> you need snow for the sled. slips on asphalt. >> putting it on the backside of the reindeer is not it. track it too apparently. >> on your cell phone. let's get back to michelle in cuba. >> reporter: lots of questions today about what does the death of fidel castro made for the relations between the united states and cuba? his death comes at a time of great uncertainty already because of the election of donald trump. what does president-elect donald trump mean to the future of u.s./cuba relations? we explore right after the break here on "power lunch." don't move. [vo] quickbooks introduces jeanette.
1:28 pm
and her new business: i do, to go. jeanette was excellent at marrying people. but had trouble getting paid. not a good time, jeanette. even worse. now i'm uncomfortable. but here's the good news, jeanette got quickbooks. send that invoice, jeanette. looks like they viewed it. and, ta-da! paid twice as fast. oh, she's an efficient officiant. way to grow, jeanette. get paid twice as fast. visit quickbooks-dot-com. anything worth pursuing hard work and a plan. at baird, we approach your wealth management strategy the same way to create a financial plan built to last from generation to generation.
1:29 pm
we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan. baird.
1:30 pm
welcome back to "power lunch." i'm sue herrera. here's your cnbc news update for this hour. a terrifying attack at ohio state university in columbus is over. school officials say a man intentionally drove a car into a
1:31 pm
group of pedestrians, got out of the car and continued his attack with a butcher knife before he was shot dead by police. at least nine people now have been taken to hospitals with nonlife threatening injuries. the suspect is reportedly an 18-year-old somali refugee who was a student at the school. it appears at this point that he acted alone. a federal judge ruled accused emmanuel ame church killer dylan roof can represent himself at his hate trial. he will be able to question victims' family members should they be called as witnesses. troops in havana have fired a 21-gun salute and they are lining up with pictures of castro and cuban flags for the man that ruled that country for half a century. the iraqi military is working its way deeper into the
1:32 pm
isis strongholds of mosul. the iraqi offensive to free mosul of isis militants is now in its second month. progress is being made but it's still relatively slow. that is the news update this hour. i'll send it back to you guys. melissa, back to you. stocks take a breather today after setting new records in friday's shortened holiday session. major averages across the board in the red with dow down by just about a quarter of a point. ditto for s&p 500 and nasdaq composite. energy the biggest gainer we should note. as far as bright spots go, we do see a distinct bid for safety in today's session even though the losses are quite mild at this point. bonds are higher. look at utilities. a big winner up by 2% right now. donald trump resuming meetings today to fill out his administration. john harwood is live outside of trump tower with the latest. john, i guess at the top of the
1:33 pm
to-do list is who will serve as secretary of state? >> reporter: exactly. there's a steady stream of visitors coming into trump tower on that and other appointments as this transition continues and not surprisingly just like the campaign, it's been a bumpy one. a couple of issues have emerged. first of all, growing awareness of donald trump's potential conflicts between his business interests everywhere from the philippines to turkey to scotland and u.s. foreign policy. the second is donald trump is plainly unnerved by the idea that he did not win the popular vote and so he sent a false tweet over the weekend saying he had won the popular vote if you deduct millions of illegal votes there's no evidence whatsoever that there were millions of illegal votes and finally you have this public battle over the secretary of state position with former campaign manager kellyanne conway trashing mitt romney over the weekend. mitt romney is coming here today to have a meeting with donald
1:34 pm
trump and so is bob corker and also david petraeus, the retired general all three are potential secretaries of state. for now though, he does not have a top foreign policy adviser to guide him on the issue of what happens in cuba after fidel castro. what we've seen evolve is a series of tweets. first on saturday after the news broke of fidel castro's death a celebratory tweet and then a fuller statement in which he said the cruelties of the castro regime can't be erased but my administration stands ready to help the cuban people on their journey to prosperity and security and then finally this morning he said i will terminate the opening to cuba that president obama has undertaken if cuba does not make changes that are to my liking, to the u.s. government's liking and to the benefit of the cuban people and with that, tyler, the bargaining window with cuba
1:35 pm
appears to be open. >> i'm particularly interested in the idea of general petraeus who is a formidable individual. former head of the cia. head of the security forces in afghanistan being named secretary of state because as we all remember, mr. petraeus paid $100,000 fine and is, i believe, still serving two years of probation for sharing classified information with his biographer and lover. >> that is right. of course it's a test of how seriously donald trump and his team actually regard the issue that they slammed hillary clinton with during the campaign or whether that was a political tactic and now they're ready to look past behavior by general petraeus that by the testimony of fbi director james comey last summer was worse than anything that hillary clinton did. we will see. it is clear that david petraeus has respect as a military commander and as a thinker on
1:36 pm
foreign policy so it is possible that you could see the president-elect looking past that issue. >> all right. john harwood, thanks very much. what will a post-castro cuba look like under a trump administration? let's bring in ted hicken. michelle is with us from havana. michelle, i'll turn to you to lead the questioning here but, ted, what do you make of these early bursts from president-elect trump with respect to undoing or redoing the "deal" that the obama administration reached with raul castro and cuba? >> if trump is looking for an unpaid adviser on foreign policy as regards to cuba, i volunteer. my naanalysis is this. early on trump said he approved of obama's opening except he would have gotten a better deal.
1:37 pm
later on he said that he would cancel the deal unless cuba could make very clear concessions on human rights and in religious freedoms. i think that it kind of depends partly on which trump shows up on january 20th. is it the deal maker? is it the let's make a deal guy. the businessman? the pragmatist? or is it someone who would embrace potentially the embargo and the republican hard line toward cuba? and so that's up in the air. >> michelle, what -- >> i would -- >> i was going to ask you what do you think the cuban administration, raul castro or whoever his successor ultimately is, what kind of concessions would they have to make with respect to human rights and religious freedom that could potentially satisfy president-elect trump? >> well, they could stop
1:38 pm
arresting dissidents and stop beating them up. that would be a big improvement. i think the bottom line when it comes to donald trump is there has to be -- he suggested regardless of which trump shows up, and ted is right, there is going to be an increase in the conditionality that there has to be something more than what's been given. maybe it's not just human rights. maybe it's on the economic front where thus far all of the u.s. activity here has been activities accepted by the cuban government that would bring the cuban government revenue without reforms about ownership or equity stake or investing. that may be a bridge too bar us that they're communist. they don't believe in private property. they insist the government should control 99.9% of all businesses here. that would also be a dramatic improvement. the question is what exactly so your point, tyler, what are they willing to do, if anything? >> ted, raul castro said that
1:39 pm
he'll step down in the term limits implying he'll step down in 2018. we know pretty much who his likely successor would be. we're talking about the transition here in the united states. is there a risk that president-elect trump is negotiating or will be negotiating with somebody who is soon himself going to be out of office? >> i don't think that's a real worry. i would first say to put conditionality or demand concessions from cuba and government there is a nonstarter. they are willing to talk and negotiate and deal but if you phrase it in a way of concessions, it's a nonstarter. history tell us that very clearly. they are willing to talk. in terms of the future, i think we have to remember raul has said he'll step down in 2018. february of 2018. so i don't think there's any worry that the new leader who is probably going to be the 56 year old party appointee and party
1:40 pm
leader would kind of run away with the policy out of the shadow of raul. i think the government of cuba has very successfully made a succession from one castro to another and has had a lot of time to make the new and plan for this new succession afterward. i don't think that negotiating with raul now would be a lost cause or a blimp. >> ted, there's always been speculation that once fidel was gone perhaps raul would feel more emboldened to do even more economic reforms besides the very tiny ones that have been permitted here. people being able to buy and sell their cars finally or being able to open small businesses in very limited segments of the economy. does fidel castro's departure from this earth means he does more than he would have otherwise? >> i think in the short-term, no. i would say after four to six months after the smoke has
1:41 pm
cleared, the honor has been paid, it certainly is possible. it's always been assumed that fidel was the more ideological hard line brother. raul was more pragmatic brother who was a manager and has been successfully managing the transition and before that the military and so it would give raul more wiggle room. it's always been assumed that fidel was the power behind the throne of the hardliners still in the government that fought and won the revolution. >> michelle, very quickly if you would, what would undoing of the "deal" look like if there is no concession on the part of the cuban government on the points that mr. trump has made? you know, great fanfare, opening of an american diplomatic post there and a similar one in washington. do those go away? >> well, it depends on what you mean by the deal. the official deal is the
1:42 pm
reopening of the embassies and reestablishment of diplomatic relations. the obama administration as part of that process has done a lot of things through executive order and make the cuban government's life easier whether it's easier trade terms, being taken off the list of the state sponsors of terrorism and being able to use dollars in overseas transactions. a lot of things that he could undo and steps that would make it harder for them without just undoing the whole embassy process so to speak. >> all right. got to leave it there. ted, michelle. thanks very much. the trump rally today taking a breather but there are some standout stocks. the names straight ahead. >> announcer: the cnbc trend tracker leaderboard is brought to you by the cme group. cme group, where the world comes to manage risk.
1:43 pm
1:44 pm
the trump rally today taking
1:45 pm
welcome back. a number of stocks hitting all-time highs. >> here's what we've got. new highs include defense contractors like general dynamics and jb hunt, johnson controls and u.p.s. hitting lifetime highs. you have h & r block shares snapping a six-day winning streak. the likelihood of legislation to simplify tax filings could hurt h&r block and donald trump said it would be a dream of mine to put h&r block out of business by simplifying the tax process. bmo capital markets upgraded sw energy. the firm says southwestern outperforming peers. shares up 65% this year. another day and another high for u.p.s. >> thank you. now to the bond market.
1:46 pm
rick santelli is tracking the action at the cme. finally we're seeing a bid for u.s. treasuries. >> we are indeed. and if you look at the yields today around 232, we're down four basis points in yield from the highest close since july which was half day at 2.36. but brings up a good point. based on closes, today would be the day that if we stay in the 2.30s that they have stayed in the 2.30s. we had closes in the 1.50s. boone yields, ninth close below 30 basis points. all charts of november month to date. if you look at 10s minus boons, this could be the second close above 1.01. weakness or strength usually leads to more weakness and strength. back to you. >> thank you, rick santelli. now to julia boorstin with a news alert. >> the nfl issuing a statement
1:47 pm
saying we are fully committed to "thursday night football" and any reports to the contrary are unfounded. this comes after nbc sports pro football talk wrote an article saying that the league is considering the possibility of ending or at least limiting "thursday night football" following emergence of several suggestions and reports that nfl could pull the plug on every week thursday football. of course, this comes in the wake of a lot of concerns about a decline in football ratings over the first part of the season though there has been some rebound now that the election is over. back over to you. >> all right. thank you. coming up next, with 1.8 billion packages expected to be moved this holiday season, are shippers up to the task? that story straight ahead. ♪ ♪
1:48 pm
♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event. (bing)
1:49 pm
1:50 pm
speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. thanksgiving weekend has become prime time for automakers to increase their year-end sales so did black friday get them off to a good start? let's find out. phil lebeau live from chicago with answers. >> it was a decent weekend for auto dealers. i've done some channel checks and what i heard back from a number of people in the industry
1:51 pm
is it was a good, not a great black friday weekend. doesn't mean it was a disaster. probably down 33% to 4% from a year ago. they need to raise incentives in order to close deals and incentives as they continue to climb higher are now at their second highest level ever. look at this according to jd power. november average incentive almost $3,900 up 15% compared to november of last year. the second highest level ever according to jd power. all of this sets up the question of what we'll see on thursday when we hear about november auto sales. now, remember, the estimate is between 17.7 and 17.9 million as a sales rate. if it comes in there, we could be on track to match the 17.5 million record sales that we saw last year. as you look at shares of the big three and what they've done since the election of donald trump. interesting movement there when
1:52 pm
you look at chrysler. a huge month for auto sales specifically for luxury name plates. thanksgiving weekend a decent start, not a great start for them. >> thank you very much, phil. and from rims to retail, 1.8 billion packages, that's how many deliveries fedex, u.p.s. and postal service expect to make combined between now and new year. 1.7 billion will go to morgan brennan's house. she joins us now with what to expect during this shopping season. >> i wish i was getting that many packages. it sounds like a lot of garbage. expect another record peak season as online sales continue to surge. you have seen early numbers indicating that. overall parcel carriers forecasting double digit growth between now and years end. u.p.s., 700 million packages. 14% more than last year. fedex 10% increase which would mean upwards of 355 million
1:53 pm
shipments and the u.s. postal service 12% jump to 750 million packages. now, between the three, 185,000 seasonal workers and billions of dollars in investment. we've got new facilities, new tech, mobile sorting stations, new planes. expanded delivery hours including sunday and christmas day deliveries at the postal service especially for that carriers biggest customer which is amazon. and now 220 million amazon packages will be shipped this season. that's an almost 30% increase over last year. with usps moving two-thirds of it followed by u.p.s. and fedex and 7% moved in large part by amazon itself. the big question, can these companies deliver? more packages mean more potential risks to service but also potential profits. so far for thanksgiving week, ontime delivery performance was strong for both.
1:54 pm
fedex ground had nearly 99% ontime rate and u.p.s. ground slipped slightly. both shares slightly lower today. they are trading near all-time highs we saw hit by both of those stocks last friday. mel is yaiss melis melissa? >> thank you. today is a day for shoppers to get great deals. let's get a pulse of the luxury consumer now with head of one of the largest online jewelers. shares of blue nile up over the last month on gains of a deal to go private. harvey, great to have you with us. >> great to be here on cyber-monday. big day. >> is cyber-monday a big deal for you guys? i'm on the site right now. i'm confessing that i'm looking at online shopping doing my own research here. there are 36 items offered up to
1:55 pm
50% off which doesn't seem like a lot considering the amount of merchandise you've got on your site. >> 50% off select diamond jewelry, it's a big day carrying forward from a solid weekend start. 70% of our business is bringing value at 20% to 40% below traditional jewelry stores every day. we don't have a big promotional offer. the value is there every year all day long. >> why do you need brick and mortar showrooms. you just opened one near your headquarters in seattle. i thought the whole idea was that you're completely online and people can do their research at a tiffany or wherever, pick their diamond. get educated and go online and buy their diamond there almost like the amazon best buy show room effect. >> it's all about choice. millennials require choice. it's not for us to tell you how to shop. it's bringing options to the consumer and they'll tell us how to buy so be it on a mobile device, in web rooms. a segment of consumers want to
1:56 pm
see touch and feel product. for 17 years we brought innovation to that experience. web rooms are that experience for millennials. it's resonating well. >> your company is going private shortly. why did you choose to do that? what will it allow you to do that you couldn't do as a public company? >> two important items. one is shareholder return. the board believed this was an incredible value for shareholders. premium of 34%. so that's really a significant element for the shareholder base and the board. conversely for them to come in and help us with innovation and creativity and it's a great opportunity to evolve the brand and grow and demonstrate that leadership that we brought for 17 years to the marketplace. >> we'll leave it there. thank you so much for your time. >> have a great holiday. >> i like that bracelet you were looking at. >> i do too, tyler. hint hint. the names that could go from worse to first.
1:57 pm
that's next. mommy, your wish came true! if you're going to wish, wish big at the lexus december to remember sales event. get up to $2,500 customer cash on select 2016 and 2017 models for these terms. see your lexus dealer.
1:58 pm
1:59 pm
mobility is very important to me. that's why i use e*trade mobile. it's on all my mobile devices, so it suits my mobile lifestyle. and it keeps my investments fully mobile... even when i'm on the move. sign up at and get up to six hundred dollars. welcome to the second hour of "power lunch." i'm melissa lee alongside tyler
2:00 pm
mathisen. michelle caruso-cabrera is in cuba. she'll join us in a moment. after hitting record highs, stocks taking a breather. dow down for only the third time in the last 15 sessions. consumer discretionary and financials are the worst performers. it's been a volatile session for oil. crude rallying more than 2% conflicting reports about whether opec can get a deal done come wednesday's opec meeting to scale back output. under armour class c shares up. more on this big move in just a few minutes. wells fargo down. employees suing the bank. goldman sachs upgrading global x from buy to neutral. more on this market in just a moment. first, to sue herrera for latest
2:01 pm
on the situation at ohio state university. sue? >> just a short while ago officials wrapped up their news conference. they'll do another briefing later in the afternoon where we think we'll get more clarification, if you will, on who the suspect was. basically the attack started this morning at ohio state university. they put out an active shooter tweet and asked students to shelter in place. it turns out what happened was not an active shooter but an 18 year old somali student who intentionally drove a car into a group of pedestrians, got out of the car and attacked them with a butcher knife. he was immediately shot by police. we believe it is by ohio state university police and a result of about nine people -- at least nine people were injured enough so they were transported to local hospitals. nonlife threatening injuries. there is still one person in critical condition and we should get an update on that person later this afternoon. the shelter in place has been
2:02 pm
lifted. back to you guys. >> thank you very much, sue. the trump rally hitting the pause button today. can you keep the returns coming? one strategy is to find stocks that have been battered. mike looks at the names that could go from worst to first. >> it's been a good year for u.s. stock market. average stock in this country up more than 10% year-to-date. i look at the end of the spectrum doing extreme bargain hunting. on the premise that when stocks are down tremendously, there's spring loaded effect. you have some ability to rebound strongly. this year, it happened with coal stocks down 80% over four years. they doubled this year. this is what i looked at. stocks or sectors down more than 50%. 50% to 90% over two plus years. that's how you set the stage hopefully for some kind of mean reversion trade which would be a big comeback in the coming year or two. so here's what i found. specialty pharmaceutical stocks controversial group in the aftermath of that disaster and a
2:03 pm
lot of policy noise and scrutiny of drug pricing. you have names that have been beaten down so much trading at 3 to 7 times current year earnings. it looks like that might set stage for a comeback if you get clarity there. some country markets that have been unusually punished. the italian market, turkey and russia. russia has come back somewhat but below 2011 highs and broadcasters. owners of traditional television stations like hbo down more than 50% from highs and generally neglected by wall street. i'll leave you with one final idea which is truly extreme. the uranium sector. it's down 90%. down six straight years in a row. i couldn't tell you much about fundamentals of uranium but it seems as if nobody likes this one right now. >> mike, thank you. controversial pick there.
2:04 pm
so where are opportunities in this market right now and does trump rally have legs? let's bring in brian from bmo capital markets. i'm sure you heard mike's report. without going into individual names, are you a finance of what to buy that's beaten down? >> there's always a hope that stocks go higher. we rely on fundamental analysis. there's a couple names in there that have fundamental structural issues and pricing and stigma but from an industry standpoint it can work out well with areas under tremendous duress especially the last 12 months and he named one of them especially pharmaceuticals. >> you like specialty pharmaceuticals? >> if you look at health care in particular, we favor the biotech and big drug companies because of bigger cash levels and better inventory in terms of new drugs
2:05 pm
coming to market. at the end of the day i think pharma could be a place to play as well. >> s&p is at 2,200 now. where do you see it next year? that's number one. if you had to focus on one s&p sector to put the bulk of your capital, where would it be? >> that's the easiest answer. it would be financials. we think financials are the play for the next several years. five to ten years because we believe our institutional clients are massively underweight that area around the world and we do think that less regulation and better economy over the next several years in america could do very well within financials. we're looking at a base case of 2,350 for the s&p 500. a big move since the trump victory. we think markets could give back near term to provide a better buying opportunity for near term investors. longer term investors should be very much engaged in equities. our best case scenario is a
2:06 pm
target of 2,500 with the market next year. we'll really need to see revenue and earnings growth to get going especially the second half of the year. 2,350 we're comfortable with. >> in terms of financials, one of the huge drivers is steepening yield curve. we've seen a tremendous rise from the election to today. but that could also possibly be one of the biggest sort of unknowns about this rally. if the yield curve goes too steep and interest rates rise too fast, how much of a concern is that of yours in terms of rising rates and the impact especially on nonfinancial debt out there, which is at record levels? >> it's a great question. i think that's why you have to worry a little bit more about small and mid cat because they are carrying heavier debt let's and we've seen that small and mid cap stocks since trump victory have rocketed higher. so from valuation perspective, we're most worried about mid
2:07 pm
cap. small cap we think could be better next year relative to mid cap in terms of earnings growth. just from the interest rate side of things, you have to worry more about those areas. in terms of the yield curve, interest rates have been held down artificially for several years. this is positive with respect to what we've seen in terms of interest rates going up too fast. we thought interest rates should have gone up faster the last two years. this is a little bit of a relief rally, let's call it, in yields as great unwind of a 34-year bull market in bonds is going to take a lot longer than most anticipate. we've had a nice bounce in yields. there's still a lot more to come from here. >> you like financials. what one sector very quickly would you shy away from next year? >> anything with high yield. that's real estate, telecom and equity dividend growth is an allocation sleeve by itself. we think it's a great opportunity for longer term
2:08 pm
investors. >> all right. thank you. good to see you. let's head back to michelle in havana. mourners lining up to pay homage to the late fidel castro. >> starting about 8:00 this morning, we've seen thousands of people line up. they opened doors so people could go into the monument and we were told there were going to be ashes there and book to sign. reporters who have been inside say that's not in there at this point but certainly people are coming here to pay their respects. if you look at the line of people, and we spent a decent amount of time talking with folks who have lined up to talk to them about why, you notice something that wouldn't be true if this line were in the united states or europe or latin america or a lot of places in asia. look at what these people are doing. they are not on their phones. they're not tweeting. they're not texting.
2:09 pm
they're not posting on facebook. they're not chatting with anyone. that's because the internet here is basically non-existent. there are government workers who have connections at the office where they can connect to the intra net here which is very controlled and when it comes to wi-fi, there are 50 spots across the island where you can go outside and buy a car that gets you access with a phone that is enabled but to be able to be on your phone just walking around is something that does not happen here and you really notice it when you have a large number of cubans all in one place and they're not acting like you see in modern societies in most places in the world. with he spoke with mourners about why they're here. why are you here? >> to say good-bye to a leader and father of many generations of cubans. >> is cuba going to change? >> i don't know. nobody knows. his brother is still the leader
2:10 pm
and he's following his line of thoughts, and we are the ones who can change this country. >> do you think people want things to change? >> that's a tricky question. we all want change. life is about changing. that's it. >> so fidel castro's presence has loomed large over the country figuratively and today literally. they have put up this huge poster on the ministry across the plaza here and you can see there are three lines that snake into this monument and it's just been going on for hours and hours and hours. i want to show you if we bring back the camera this week. the phones we use to talk to cubans or call people within the island when we're here, it's old fashioned kind of phone that we would have had many 15 years ago in the united states. some people do have smartphones for when they go stand in the wi-fi spots. but they're not very common and
2:11 pm
they are incredibly expensive for individuals who earn roughly $20 a month if they have a government job, which is the vast majority of the people in the country. >> i don't want to impute anything to the individual you just spoke to. if you read body language right, he was uncomfortable answering your questions. would you say that's how people feel there? >> yes. it's impossible to know the truth when you speak to individuals here especially with a camera. we'll play other sound bites later in the day where people were rejoicing about castro saying nothing is going to change. they wanted nothing to change. they love it the way it is. it's hard to know what is truth here because it's very difficult to say what you believe without getting in trouble. they still arrest people who protest against the government. >> all right. thank you very much. michelle caruso-cabrera in havana. let's take a look at general david petraeus enters trump tower just a few moments ago.
2:12 pm
alongside a former appearance guy here on cnbc. mr. petraeus, general petraeus, is being considered to be secretary of state. it would be a controversial choice in light of his history of sharing some confidential documents with his biographer, an infraction for which he paid a $100,000 fine and served two years of probation. there's mr. petraeus going into trump tower. been a rough year for the big athletic aparrparel makers. nike off and under armour down even more. and we go live to cyber-monday's war room. >> that's right. we are live in the ebay war room. all hands on deck and a lot of data crunching through here throughout the world. we'll show you the hot sellers online coming up.
2:13 pm
what do you got to offer us today? ♪balance transfer that's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, lets you compare hundreds of cards to find the one that's right for you. just search, compare, and apply at ♪a one, a two, a three percent cash back♪
2:14 pm
i've spent my life planting a size-six,
2:15 pm
non-slip shoe into that door. on this side, i want my customers to relax and enjoy themselves. but these days it's phones before forks. they want wifi out here. but behind that door, i need a private connection for my business. wifi pro from comcast business. public wifi for your customers. private wifi for your business. strong and secure. good for a door. and a network. comcast business. built for security. built for business. welcome back to "power lunch." the sector up more than 12% or so in november. the regional banks specifically have been leading the way higher. spider s&p regional bank ticker is up 18% this month tracking for best month it's ever had. of 95 components, 91 of them are
2:16 pm
up about 10% or for so far in november. as the month comes to a close, keep an eye on those financials as they are leading all of the other sectors by a wide margin. back over to you. >> thank you. disney has 81.1 million reasons to be thankful for this thanksgiving holiday weekend. that's how much money the company took in for its animated film. the film's success building on the studio's hot streak. they released five of the years ten highest grossing films. supposed to be a good one. not in the market for animated films myself. >> with a 10 year old i see a lot of films where they have animated characters. talking animals. things like that. >> "finding dory" was great. millions of shopping online today. what are they buying? we go live to the cyber-monday war room. >> they've rounded out their hot
2:17 pm
selling items. here they are. playstation vr. nintendo was selling one every 18 seconds and drones are ever popular this holiday season. this particular one is on the more expensive side. brand new. it will set you back about $1,000. drones in general selling every 18 seconds on ebay. just one example of how technology is so hot this year among christmas related products. consumer technology association actually reports that 1.2 million drones will be sold this holiday season, which would be 112% increase over sales last year. the group also expects 700,000 virtual reality headsets to be sold this season and 4.5 million 4k ultra hd tvs but tech
2:18 pm
is creeping into home space with products like amazon's echo and home devices bringing smartphone technology into mainstream. the industry will do well this holiday season. >> consumer electronics is getting to be an interesting space because as the internet starts to evolve, you see more products that have been traditionally thought of just home goods and things like that falling into the consumer electronic space. that may shift some of the buying out of traditional home good sellers into the consumer electronic sellers. >> and tech isn't just going into the home space. it's also imposing on the toy space. the toy industry definitely some of the hottest selling toys are the high tech devices that will set you back $200 on ebay. they are extinct at retail stores right now. back to you. >> thank you very much. let's take a look at under armour. class c shares up 10% right now on pace for their best day ever.
2:19 pm
compare that with its class a shares up 3%. some investors think class c shares may be undervalued. the company changing the ticker symbols for both classes starting in december on the 7th. class a stock will trade under uaa and class c shares, which does not come with any voting rights, will share under the ticker ua. you got that? you follow that? if you look at under armour versus its main rival nike, both stocks are lower this year. nike off 18%. under armour down 25%. could this be an opportunity to stock up on the names? let's bring in jay with morgan stanley. underweight rating on under armour and equal weight rating on nike. untangle for me this class a versus class c share business at under armour. which one do i want to buy? >> well, the big difference
2:20 pm
between the class a and class c is that the class a shares have more voting rights than class c shares. otherwise there's no difference. if you want to invest in under armour, either share will work fine. >> either share you say you are underweight i assume? >> first thing to know is that it's an outstanding brand and has an exceptional managing team. we think growth will be very good. street thinks growth will be great. that's the only difference. under armour has great products and outlook is still very good. our view is just that expectation for the street need to get more in line with what they'll do next year. >> extremely aggressive targets. am i correct on that? >> extremely aggressive targets and growth and results. i think that looking ahead, you know, the question is can they meet the street's expectation? we think they'll be short but still very strong growth. >> why do you give a slight nod to nike? >> the thing is if we're going to talk about athletic apparel,
2:21 pm
with he have to talk about adidas. really, that's the story of 2016. adidas had a great comeback due to new products that have sold well and great celebrity endorsements like kanye west and going into 2017, we think adidas will have great momentum. that's one thing that's affected both nike and under armour in 2016. >> so talk to me a little bit. i want to get your thoughts on nike which is one of the companies that you particularly follow. i take your point that adidas may be the place to go in 2017. give me a thought on nike. >> nike is doing a lot of work to position itself for a strong 2017. really, the inventory got high but they're working it down. you see promotions out there during black friday and holiday weekend that we just had. as we get into 2017, nike wants to have inventory in place and come out with new products like the vapor max which they are really excited about.
2:22 pm
i think if they can get innovation right and get some of the fashion momentum away from adidas and inventory can stay under control, nike will be poised to have a very strong year. from our point of view, we'll see that consumers are starting to adopt those new fashions. if that happens, that could affect our view. for right now we are equal weight. >> brian sullivan told me to read the book of phil knight. have you read it? >> it's a good book. >> a terrific story. great narrative and well written by the founder of nike. thanks a lot. >> thanks for having me. to sue herrera now for a news update. >> this is news out of michigan. the michigan board of state canvassers certified election results in michigan and certified mr. trump is the winner in michigan and he gets those 16 electoral votes. so nbc news at 2:13 p.m. after michigan certified its results, nbc news called the race at
2:23 pm
2:13. donald trump the apparent winner of michigan anticipates 16 electoral votes. melissa, back to you. >> there are recounts going on in wisconsin and pennsylvania but mr. trump really needed to win all three states -- needed to lose all three states to make a difference in results. >> this is not a recount. this is certification of the original vote. >> certification. sue, thank you. coming up, good, bad and ugly. toys and taxes and information technology and wait until you see what one man did to get back at the people stealing packages from homes in his neighborhood.
2:24 pm
i'm only in my 60's. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans. so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i looked at my options. then i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it helps pick up some of what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. to me, relationships matter. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] with these types of plans, you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital
2:25 pm
that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. so don't wait. call now and request this free decision guide to help you better understand medicare... and which aarp medicare supplement plan might be best for you. there's a wide range to choose from. we love to travel - and there's so much more to see. so we found a plan that can travel with us. anywhere in the country. [ male announcer ] join the millions of people who have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp, an organization serving the needs of people 50 and over for generations. remember, all medicare supplement insurance plans help cover what medicare doesn't pay. and could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. and learn more about the kinds of plans that will be here for you now - and down the road.
2:26 pm
i have a lifetime of experience. so i know how important that is. >> over the next month or so we'll hear about porch pirates. a homeowner in los angeles decided to get revenge. he installed cameras and stealing a box he left as bait. what was in the box? the homeowner described it as reprocessed dog chow. that would be dog chow that had taken a trip through the dog. there you go. one way to get even.
2:27 pm
>> the guy still had to deal with the reprocessed dog chow and put it in the box so i'm sure -- >> who is the winner here? >> who is the winner here? all right. coming up, cuba after castro. how will the death of fidel castro affect the thawing relationship between u.s. and cuba and to surprise of no one, opec may not be able to make a deal to cut out sending oil prices higher. we'll get final trades when "power lunch" returns.
2:28 pm
2:29 pm
did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's 10 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 150 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business.
2:30 pm
welcome back to "power lunch." i'm sue herrera. ohio state university is returning to normal after a student drove his car into a group of pedestrians and then got out and attached them with a butcher knife. nine people have been hospitalized with nonlife threatening injuries. the man charged with killing nine black parishioners inside a church will represent himself. the judge ruled that dylan roof can act as his own lawyer but called that request unwise. jury selection resumed today. thousands of protesters on
2:31 pm
the streets of taipei. the gay pride event is the biggest in the region. after traveling more than 3,700 miles from idaho, this year's christmas tree has been delivered to the u.s. capitol. the tree lighting is set for tuesday of next week. that's the news update this hour. back to you. 90 minutes to closing bell. stocks are lower across the board. right now, the oil markets closing for the day today. opec is in focus right now. >> absolutely. we're closing over $47 a barrel. that's a dollar pop today. well off session highs. you mentioned opec. this is hopefulness here. maybe short covering of people nervous about what we're going to hear from the cartel on wednesday. the funny thing is this weekend
2:32 pm
saudi energy minister says he thinks the rebound will happen with or without opec. letting markets know that nothing is coming on wednesday and that would be a big slap in the face because opec strung everyone around for the last two months promising that $750,0 75 barrel cut. they may say they changed their minds. there is optimism in the market we'll get something. we don't know what. there's a chance we'll get nothing. price range over 45 and under 50. still doubt there. back to you. >> for the first time in years, americans are able to travel to cuba. with castro's death and election of donald trump, is that about to change again? susan lee joins us now with the latest. >> possibly if you believe the tough talk. tourism is one area where u.s. restrictions have been lifted and that's meant a boom in numbers visiting cuba. in the first half of this year,
2:33 pm
travelers to cuba increased over 11%. that means revenues were up over 15%. not surprisingly, you saw the number of u.s. tourists have now surged. 80%. third largest national contingent. virtually every major airline flies or will fly directly to cuba by the end of this year and a lot of them starting flights this week including jetblue and they want the deal to be renegotiated. >> there will have to be movement from cuba to have a relationship with the united states. i think the president-elect has been very clear about that. >> so negotiations are all part of being in business as president-elect trump who when
2:34 pm
asked if he would one day consider buying a hotel in cuba he said that he would consider buying a hotel in the country when they're allowed to do it adding cuba has potential and it's okay to bring cuba back into the folds but you have to make a much better deal. back to you. >> thank you, susan li. now to michelle caruso-cabrera who is live in havana, cuba. how easy or difficult was it for you to travel there and move around the country? >> traveling to cuba is still very difficult, melissa. it's getting much easier. the visa process has gotten easier but still, i tried to book one of the new flights from delta. called and said oh no. we have a special cuba desk. we can't just do that on the regular line. put me through to the cuba desk. on hold for a long time. i hung up. still a visa process there. once you get here, because of the huge increase in tourism, the place is heaving and they don't have the infrastructure to handle it. tourism was prohibited until the
2:35 pm
'80s. there's hardly any decent hotels. very few. that's not just a snooty new yorker saying that. the average middle class american traveling here would find most of the hotels pretty unacceptable and the food unacceptable as well. they haven't had a service culture for a very long time because of communism. add to that it's gotten very expensive relative to what used to be a bargain. thanks to u.s. cuban trade counsel. one example, in havana back in november of 2015. it was $120. march of 2016 it went to $180. that's march of 2016. november of 2016, $280. a full $100 more because they've got so little supply. prices on air are high. a lot of hurdles. you still have to bring a ton of cash because everything has to be paid for with cash unless you have one of the three master
2:36 pm
cards from three small banks in the united states that issue one. >> do you pay with u.s. cash, michelle? >> so you have to convert to the equivalent with a 10% surcharge and then you pay with close to what our u.s. dollars would be but you have to change them. most major hotels owned by the cuban government will do the exchange for you. >> very interesting. i suppose you would have to say they may be communist, they do understand supply and demand as evidenced by those hotel rates. stick around. what effect -- >> prices clear the market. >> what effect will fidel castro's death have under a donald trump administration? let's bring in john, president of the u.s. cuba trade and economic council. good to have you with us. let me start with the idea that there are a ton of u.s. airlines that even today began regularly
2:37 pm
scheduled direct flights. jetblue and i believe american today. later in this week others are doing the same. do you expect that could be turned around and that that business could be erased under a trump administration? >> the answer is yes, it can. it will take the stroke of a pen for then president trump to reverse the arrangement. it's not an agreement. it's not a treaty that the u.s. has with cuba. he could stop the flights at 12:01 on january 20th of 2017. he's unlikely to do that. what is likely to happen in short and medium term is increase in enforcement. he'll ask the office of foreign assets control of the united states department of treasury, which most of your viewers are all familiar with, to increase the accountability and to say to travel agents we want you now to
2:38 pm
make certain that they comply with the letter and spirit of policy regulations and statutes. for the airlines, he could easily say we're going to want to make certain that u.s. customs and border protection for travelers re-entering the united states from cuba undergo secondary inspection so he can increase the hassle factor and that's quite likely what he's going to do. he won't suspend flights because vast majority of people taking these flights are people of cuban descent going to visit their families and he's not going want to cut that off. >> and let me add to that what john is implying there and hasn't said is tourism to cuba from the united states is illegal. anybody getting on those planes supposedly isn't a tourist. they're coming on people to people visa. coming under some other guise. what the obama administration has done through leniency of the
2:39 pm
regulations is allowed almost anything visiting people, doing what would normally be touristic activities being seen as people to people activities but to john's point about enforcement, that could turn around very, very quickly. you must show us ian itinerary. >> yes. the infrastructure has not been updated for many, many years. would a trump administration basically see these people who are going to cuba tourists or not, as basically running a one-way sort of cash flow van down to cuba because they are taking u.s. dollars and spending them there or bringing them to family members there. >> that's exactly how president trump, his transition staff, those advising him, some members of congress look at it.
2:40 pm
the agreements that president obama has implemented during the last 23 months, they look at a piece of paper and see two columns and see u.s. has done an awful lot. cuba has done little. they see the cuban government saying, yes, if it brings us revenue and we'll take it under advisement if it costs us something. if you look at the last 23 months, you have roughly 30 u.s. companies that have engaged with cuba in some manner. over 25 of them are hospitality related. that sort of sends -- if i may also, on the tourism, michelle's point is correct. also, we all need to remember that president-elect is a creature of social media. he watches the cable shows. so do his advisers and so do members of congress. any time they hear tourists going to cuba, tourists on the flights, tourists doing this and that, you're waving a cape in
2:41 pm
front of a bull. people need to be careful that they explain that there are 12 authorized categories by law and, yes, there are people going down there because the obama administration created the honor system on steroids. it doesn't excuse the fact that tourism is not permitted and the more that president-elect trump and soon to be president trump sees this taking place, it gives him more reason to say i'm only upholding the law. >> all right. it is a matter of law and not of regulations as i understand it. thank you both very much. it's been a huge rally for stocks so far in november. dow is up 1,000 points but emerging markets have fallen. is now the time to get in? trading nation team is on deck. they'll handle that next.
2:42 pm
2:43 pm
2:44 pm
welcome back to "power lunch." the s&p 500 rallied this month but emerging markets have struggled since the u.s. presidential election. >> we've seen four weeks of
2:45 pm
outflows in emerging market funds. the etf down 5% since the election and the wall of worries is growing. the strength of the dollar, the prospect of higher rates and according to hsbc, the more immediate threat is direction of trade policy under president-elect donald trump and the negative impact of tariffs on economic growth. if we dig into etfs since the election, brazil down 10%. india down 6%. china which is the largest trading partner and primary destination for exports has fallen over 2%. mexico the most dependent on trade with u.s. plummeting near 17% as trump says he'll renegotiate nafta, the trade deal. on the flip side, russia is up over 4% since the election outcome as tensions with the u.s. are expected to ease under a trump administration. there's also the prospect of sanctions potentially being lifted. that's not a broad based sell-off.
2:46 pm
diversification is key. a lot of uncertainty around policies around trade and tariff that could have negative consequences. >> seemthank you. let's get the fundamental side first. do you have to believe that the dollar will fall in order to be positive on emerging markets at this point? >> i think there's two folds particularly when we look at the emerging markets etfs another problem is overwhelming majority of these etfs are actually asia. you have to look at currencies and how the dollar is going to trade with south korea and taiwan and in that case i don't see any real weakening. it's also about their economies. we're not seeing growth. we're seeing further and further disappointments and of course stronger interest rates in the u.s. so particularly when you look at some of the emerging markets,
2:47 pm
it's really all about china and until we see a turnaround in their growth story, i don't see any upside going forward. >> so you're negative on emerging markets overall. do you see the same thing in the charts? >> i guess it depends on my time horizon. i think near term, it has become tactically attractive. i think it's setting up for a countertrend rally. by saying countertrend, i think there is some heightened risk here that should be considered and i think to make that point, if you look at the long-term chart, it's been making lower highs since 2007. so we see this as a relatively weaker trend than some of the u.s. stock markets which are at all-time highs. the weak tend to get weaker if the macro turns. that's not our case, however. we do think risk is returning to the market. we do think emerging markets are going to rally during that period. and with higher lows we've been
2:48 pm
making since the start of the year, we think etf is set up for a move back to that resistance line around $40. we think it looks attractive. >> all right. diverging views. thank you very much. find more market insight at many of you out there, you know who you are, you are shopping online right now while you are at work. >> no. >> your bosses know but maybe they don't care. if you're going to do it, do it right. we'll tell you where to find the best deals right now. >> announcer: and now the latest from and a word from our sponsor. tokyo-style ramen noodles.
2:49 pm
2:50 pm
fresh ingredients, step-by-step recipies, delivered to your door for less than $9 a meal. get $30 off your first delivery my dad gave me you know.ares, he ran that company. i get it. but you know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. an honest opinion is how edward jones makes sense of investing.
2:51 pm
it's cyber monday and your boss already knows you are going to shop at work today. in fact, a new study says about 65% of managers are okay with it as long as it isn't excessive. what that means is anybody's
2:52 pm
guess. we want to help you find a few of the best deals so yolk shop less and work work. let's bring in reviews editor. great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> this segment started off with me talking to the executive producer saying where can i find the best deal for a tv today and that is what people want to know. you have answers in terms of those hot 4 k smart tvs. >> black friday, cyber monday the big thing is always tvs. this year it is 4 k tvs. the one we are picking for our favorite deal is a 55 finch lg smart tv. the reason this one stands out is not just because it is 4 k and has smart features but because it has hdr which is hi dynamic range. it can display more colors.
2:53 pm
that will be great future proofing for the tv set and will do the latest stuff. that is really the thing even if you don't get this set if you are looking for a 4 k tv i would look to see if it supports hdr content because down the road when tv stations are supporting it you will want to have it on your tv. >> how about the hot lap tops? a couple of deals. what do you like there? where can i get the best prices? >> there was a chrome book my absolute favorite. you can get it super cheap on amazon right now. it is great if you want to give somebody a low cost laptop. if you are looking for something much nicer microsoft surface book is on sale today. it is microsoft's very first laptop and it is an interesting one. you can use it as a laptop or use it as a tablet. it comes with a stylus. it is one of the best options
2:54 pm
out there. that is one thing you can get on sale today which is a great choice if looking for a nicer laptop especially for school or work. >> how for the gamers? >> the ps 4 pro came out literally three weeks ago. it is a new version of play station 4. it plays all the old games but plays new play station 4 games in 4 k. if you're feeling like spending a lot of money after you buy the 4 k tv it might be worth checking it out. i believe wal-mart has it for $340 or something like that today which is a great price since they just came out this month. >> tell me about x box one s. i got one for my son. he doesn't watch cnbc. he is at school. it is his birthday on wednesday. he was very specific. i want the x box one s.
2:55 pm
what the hell is that? is that one special edition? >> x box one s is a new version of the x box one which plays all the same games. you are not getting a dramatically different thing but it's a much smaller consol so that is great news for you because it is not as huge in your entertainment console. >> special edition, the bundle. >> that means you're probably getting it with -- >> did you get it for that price? >> if you are buying an x box or ps 4 don't buy one that doesn't come with a free game because almost all of them give you something free. this is a good game. >> what is that? >> mine craft? >> it was not appropriate for him. >> he'll love it. >> a perfect birthday present then. >> you should get the low price there and give him the
2:56 pm
difference. >> he likes the madden games. >> that is more appropriate. >> thank you. >> thank you for having me. check please is next. we will tell you more about my shopping experience over the weekend. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. the market.redict but through good times and bad... t. rowe price... ...we've helped our investors stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. i've got a nice long life ahead. big plans.
2:57 pm
so when i found out medicare doesn't pay all my medical expenses, i got a medicare supplement insurance plan. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare, you may know it only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. call now and find out about an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan, insured by unitedhealthcare insurance company. like all standardized medicare supplement insurance plans, it could save you in out-of-pocket medical costs. call now to request your free decision guide. i've been with my doctor for 12 years. now i know i'll be able to stick with him. [ male announcer ] you'll be able to visit any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. plus, there are no networks, and virtually no referrals needed. see why millions of people have already enrolled in the only medicare supplement insurance plans endorsed by aarp. don't wait. call now.
2:58 pm
they are the natural borns enemy of the way things are. yes, ideas are scary, and messy and fragile. but under the proper care, they become something beautiful. check please. >> time for check please here on power lunch. final thoughts of the day. we have been asking for so long what will life in cuba be like
2:59 pm
after castro. i find this sound byte from nbc nightly news i think from the '70s. >> what is your gut feeling that castro will rule until he dies? >> it is hard to imagine a cuba without fidell castro in power. >> it is certainly going to be hard to imagine. for years we asked what happened after castro. i don't know the answer, but at least now we get to find out. >> and raul castro has said that he is going to step down. we mentioned in i believe 2018. we mentioned a successor. what can you tell us about him? >> reporter: he is the fourth successor to have been supposed successor for when the castros leave. there has been a whole series of them. we know very little about him except that he is a hard liner he is described as. hard to know what happens the
3:00 pm
next 17 months before castro, the next castro supposedly steps down. >> thank you so much. continued good luck and good reporting from havana. thank you so much for watching power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell" i'm in today for kelly evans here at the new york stock exchange. >> welcome back. cracks in the trump train. we have winners since the election day giving back some of those gains today. some of the biggest losers have seen signs of life. everybody is switching places here. we will look at what it means for your portfolio coming up. it is cyber monday. many retail stocks have been on fire since the election but they are in retreat today. we will look at whether the rally in the names could


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on