tv Fast Money CNBC November 29, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
>> this is the fifth annual giving tuesday, very institutionalized. for sure. >> good marketing. people should give. >> thank you, robert. >> thank you guys. >> good way to end the show. >> what do you say, we do that? that's it for "closing bell." thanks for joining us. the three of us will be here tomorrow. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. pete najarian, sg, karen finer man. a top technician says there is another group of stocks about to join the party. he'll be here in just a few. plus, oil sinking today ahead of tomorrow's big opec meeting. the hedge fund manager who calls the collapse in natural gas a couple years back says i'm is heading to 720 bucks a barrel. he'll explain why and when. and later, you will not believe the reason why some beer stocks have gone, well, up in smoke. it's a provocative call from a top analyst, and she will be here.
first, we start with something that happened during the market session. but rather before. president-elect donald trump's tweet storm. trump took to twitter this morning, and in a two-hour period, just two hours, tweeted about everything from his recent confirmed win in michigan to bashing cnn and finally, about what consequences there should be to burning the american flag. and this follows his nine-part tweet storm over the weekend about the possibility of a recount of votes in battleground states, pennsylvania, michigan and wisconsin. he described as a green party scam. trump used hillary clinton's own words, calling a possible delay horrifying and reiterated the outcome of the election will not change. and, of course, trump tweeting is nothing new, but many thought it would slow down as the election came to a close. now w he want to be clear, this is not a political discussion. we're not rendering a verdict on the content of these tweets. but as a future president of the united states, could he and his tweets be the biggest risk to his own trump rally? tim. >> look. if you think about the way his first speech as president-elect
came out the night -- it was actually one that set a conciliatory tone, these tweents takes you back into the campaign trail. ultimately, an unstable rhetoric as it relates to trade, social issues. yes, very unstable. having said that, look, the vix was down today. markets slowly ticking higher, consumer confidence in, much of a post-election reading as we have as anything, actually at significant numbers. so i don't think the market is responding to this. and i think, in fact, ultimately, it's gotten to a place where we have become almost immune to attacks and that's not a good thing, but a testament to where we are as the country. >> maybe once he becomes president this sort of highlights the notion that his view of what he should and what he could be tweeting about is very broad. so there could be a point in time where he about, i don't know, relations with another country or a trade war brewing. >> always concerning. these are all seem to be social
type things. quite honestly, when you go through the list of all of the things you're talking about, today's tweets, are they negative? yes. are they negative for the market? i don't think so. but if they starting to the direction you just said, then i think that's a problem. and who is going to be the muffler? who is the governor who is going to hold back donald trump from going to the twitter world and saying whatever he wants? that i think is the concern that i would have. i'm not overly concerned about it, because so far he's basically kept it to a lot of social issues he puts up there right now. that's a huge issue. i think that could be market-moving in a scary way, probably, more so in a positive way. to tim's point also, volatility. i look at the volatility in the market right now. here we are, again, near the low end of volatility for the entire year we're in the 12s. >> a referendum this week in italy, a huge payroll. a lot going on. >> yeah, are you buying production here? >> yes. i own protection here. which is cheaper today than it was before. but i -- i also think, though,
in the short-term, this tweeting does create some instability for a couple reasons. first of all, we would like him to fill out his cabinet. those are two very, very big appointments that we're waiting for. treasury, state. i think that will be very important. and then we'll start to get used to the tweeting, i think. we get used to anything. remember when it was a huge deal whether we would have a government shutdown and that was gigantic and happened again and again. so we get used to it. but those two things, i think, are really important. those are near-term things. and maybe he'll tell us via tweet. that wouldn't be surprising for him. >> he's not going to slow down on tweets. i think that he'll only ramp it up. and i think that he sees it as transparency. the markets he sees as transparency. will it be market-moving? the overall market continues to go higher as the two gentlemen said and karen said. but will it be negative for mexico? if he tweets about another country's relationship? yes, it's going to be negative for those things.
will it be negative for a biotech, eventually? maybe. but overall, the market doesn't care, continues to move higher. >> yeah. >> look at the effects that hillary had on the biotech industry itself, right? to your point, right now, he hasn't really gone there. but if he pushes the envelope and starts going into other areas -- >> why do you think he got elected? >> because he pushes the envelope and goes through areas he shouldn't go. and that's exactly what the markets don't want. >> the markets continue to go higher. >> because he hasn't sdwlinged it yet. >> at the risk of oversimplifying this, he has thrown in an oversimplified tone of things, like the apple thing. when we had the unlock the phone debate. he weighed in and suddenly u.s. firms. so you get into -- >> statements. >> right. and i don't think market participants fall for that. i think if you get down to it -- in fact, those are head fakes that are obvious opportunities and a level -- >> if he says now something to the effect of, and i'm just
going to reiterate something he has said in the past. if he reiterates that he thinks that amazon -- there is a big antitrust concern there as president-elect. >> yeah -- >> the market sold off -- amazon sold off and when tim said the market didn't play it -- you know, his way they're not going to fall for that. right now, the market got a whip saw event the day after he was elected. so i think the market was caught offsides. the market had it wrong. maybe he's right. i don't know. it's not political. >> he's right about amazon? >> no, no, no. no, about maybe we're all wrong about looking for nontransparent or opaque markets. we have been living in this world where politicians don't say -- >> anything. >> exactly what they mean. >> so now in a world where a politician -- saying exactly what he means? >> right, exactly. is there any doubt that when he tweets that he doesn't truly believe in what he's tweeting? i don't think any of us -- >> he has gone back on a lot of things. at that moment, i believe he believes it. >> right. and what do we trade?
instance in markets. we trade that moment in time. we don't trade yesterday or tomorrow. we trade what's happening. >> preelection, however. preelection. the chances he was going to be the president were obviously slim. right? >> nobody bought, yeah. >> so a lot of the tweets that he put out there probably had less of an effect. now, don't you feel like -- if he goes there, they will have the same type of effect as what hillary did, because she was going to win the presidency. >> so the house and senate and you say things -- >> right. it has extra meaning. at this point, it sounds like you are a believer there could be a trump tweet bomb in the making sometime soon to hit this market. >> i'm not saying he's going there. >> you don't have to believe the house and the senate agree with his tweets. just because he doesn't have the divided government doesn't mean everyone -- >> i think steve said something interesting. i think hillary half the time was floating stuff out there to see what the political -- when, in fact, she's got cozy relationships with a lot of these big companies.
and, in fact, when trump is doing it, he's probably doing what's on his mind. it doesn't mean it's how it's going to be handled in the house or what the implications are. >> could there be an immediate reaction? it is twitter. so everything on twitter is immediate. so there could be an immediate reaction and he could walk back later. if it's throwing out there -- i don't think they're trial balloons, by the way. if he's going to do it, it's something he's more interested in, and he's been a participant. >> i agree with that. i guess my point, there may be at least some substance to the sentiment behind what he's saying and doesn't mean there has been a political process involved to that point. it's truly shooting from the hip. and that is -- >> i'll -- i want to quickly -- did anybody do anything to do, trade today? >> i sold some out of the money calls, actually, yesterday afternoon. and they're going against me today in united airlines and american airlines. just because they have had enormous runs. >> i will say, there was a huge pullback in the minors and the way the market responded, banks, airlines, industrials rallying.
kind of back to the trump trade. rates came down a little bit. commodities got hammered. and that was even in a weaker dollar environment. 6 to 7 to 8%. >> did you buy? >> i'm telling you, pick your levels, because these could be bought. >> xilinx, a chip name. >> jim liked that one. i heard you guys talking about that yesterday. >> so i put my money where my mouth is and bought some of that today. >> i got longer in macro market and bought more spdrs. >> with the trump rally still in full swing, what other stocks could be the next big trump trade? we're going off the charts with chris maroney, a strategist to find out. chris, what do you have? >> two important take-aways here. number one, do not fight this market. and secondly, don't fight the calendar. we're in the part of the year where seasonals really take over. the first two weeks of december can be choppy. the last two weeks tend to be very good. this is the average s&p return in every december since 1950. you have the calendar at your back here. you have the market at your back. we think 2300 is in play into
year-he said. the second thing i want to talk about, and i think this is really compelling, given how good this rally has been. investors are still relatively defensive. these are net exposures to the futures market. the street is still running net short here. very unusual, given the rally. and we think that's fuel into year-end. people have to cover. so what do we want to own? we actually think autos are one neglected group here starting to act better. this is gm over the last three years. the down trend has been in place. we think it's starting to turn here. 33 is great support. ultimately up to 40. that's about 16% from here. it's an improving chart in an improving group with both the market and the calendar at its back. we want to be long. >> all right, chris. should we invite chris over? >> yeah, why not? >> all right. chris come on over. >> bring it, bring it. >> i don't know how long he'll be over, but -- thanks for the chair. >> good to see you, man. >> i have a question. >> okay. >> so this chart, every -- every
time since 1950, every december looks like -- maybe one or two -- i can't quite tell, is up. >> about 80% of decembers since 1950 are higher. it wouldn't shock me if we chopped around over the next couple days. i don't want to fight this into year-end, particularly given that positioning is still relatively defensive here. that i think is the big surprise. >> go ahead. >> was there any other month when that happens? with that kind of -- >> actually, april tends to be a pretty good month. that's surprising. april has been a very good month. >> so the autos are at least a trade that have actually lagged the rest of the market. are there other trades that fundamentally might look worse that you think could still rally, whether it's even global multinationals and high pe stocks, even some of the names that are defensive stocks? >> what i think is compelling about the autos, though, they have lagged here. they really haven't lagged in europe. look at bmw. that one has turned.
daimler, volvo has turned, japanese autos have turned, as well. i would say domestically, don't be surprised if some of these bond proxies actually bounce. i would be more skeptical of those rallies and skeptical of rallies and the reits and the tell cos. i look to take exposure down in those groups and add it to some of the more cyclicals, whether it's industrials or banks or autos. that's what i think leadership is going to look like over the next several quarters. we should respect the message the market is going to send us here? >> thank you, chris. if you think about what is it to come with a trump presidency, relaxed lending standards could be good for auto loans and tax reform good for consumers. consumers could feel richer. >> haven't we had a lot of those elements in there? >> yeah, we have. >> i look at that particular trade and it's broken my heart too many times. i would rather fail somewhere, where else than in an area where i have failed multiple times in the past, whether it's ford or gm. >> except for the fact, those
names give you i think tremendous either defensive or resilience in the face of a market where people are questioning the multiples. those things are cheap and cheaper. >> and huge pent-up demand. >> if you look at the underperformance we had in an airlines. what would change for an airlines. there is a sense we were in an industrial world that is better. when i'm looking at stocks right now, i want to find value and those that i think actually have been beaten up on sentiment. auto is looking until proven otherwise, i think we're beaten up well before the cycle ends. >> the dividend yield on gm is 4.4%. >> what's weighed on gm is peak autos. peak, peak, peak. maybe that sentiment is no longer the front runner of sentiment. >> who cares if it's peak autos. they are actually -- >> no matter what earnings they put up, the stock was really kind of stuck until -- >> i agree. >> so i am thinking maybe that rhetoric is toned down. >> the average age of a vehicle on the street is longer than it's ever been.
>> you like autos. >> the auto trade is probably going to work. because of this -- the duration that the car -- >> the econoline van you're driving. >> the shag interior is new. he upgraded last year. >> all right. coming up, oil is plunging ahead of tomorrow's opec meeting. we've got a hedge fund manager who says don't worry, it's heading back to 70 bucks a barrel. and he was the man who called the collapse of national gas. he's here to explain. and italian banks in grande trouble. are we looking at another european banking crisis? and later, could pot be killing your beer buzz? a top analyst says legal pot is actually depressing beer sales. i'm being serious. i guess the kids don't party like they used to. much more "fast money" still ahead. r business be ready when growth presents itself?
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overhaul much more difficult and could lead to the country's largest banks ultimately failing. could we be looking at part two of the failing. >> u.s. banks continue to chuck higher. you brought up why this constitutional amendment or this referendum, it's not about hey, do we want to be in europe or not. this is italian, this is control. and there is some sense that it's a political process and i think people don't look at that positively. the expectations on this, at least at this point, i think we're going to see it's not going to happen. a no vote. and then you get into this dynamic where what does it mean for italian banks. if they get the yes vote, that might be more unstable. they're going to want to take on the european union and actually bail out their banks and that ultimately is a bad thing. >> walk me through the implications of the euro. a good or bad thing for the euro we want to bail out the italian banks. >> if you think the euro is instable and could be at the
risk of seeing a poor country pull out, ultimately that's euro-positive. in the short run, puts more pressure on the euro and you're seeing that in the way not only the european banks have traded but the way a lot of european stocks have. the euro stock 50 is going sideways and the rest of the world is going higher. >> isn't there some sort of contagion type reaction? >> in terms of the other banks? >> austria and greece and spain and portugal. >> the bad loans in europe -- the italian banks, 40% of them. if you want to look at the exposure, absolutely collateral damage. if you look at the ecb has effectively put all of this collateral on its balance sheet, it does have implication for the entire european union. >> are you in european banks? >> no. >> you're not. your brother was. >> he was, but on the short side. deutsche bank and had puts in deutsche bank. gold getting hit again today, for its worst month since june of 2013. steve. >> well, this gets back to another thing. in your portfolio, you should
have some gold. that's the old standard. maybe that -- maybe i'm old fashioned, but i still hold gdx. you have to have some utilities. i trade utilities. but i rarely trade my gdx. outperforms on the way out and unfortunately outperforms on the way down. if you look at year-to-date performance, still up 55%. if you look at gld, it's up 12%. so you're looking at an outperformance between 4 and 5 times -- the torque -- i know you hate when i say that. >> no, i don't. i don't. >> so you have the torque with a gdx that you don't get with a gld. so if you have a ironclad stomach, and you want that outperformance on the way up and willing to risk it, you play with the gdx. right now is not the time for gold. there will be another time for gold. it just doesn't seem to be the environment. >> is there ever a time for gold for you, pete najarian? >> yeah, last year in december. >> not any more. >> haven't seen it since.
the question i would ask you real quick is, so rate hikes are coming. that's been the killer for gold, probably. if there is one. so would you put fresh money right now? karen always likes to use that. fresh money right now, would you be a buyer of gold? >> i would think about adding money to a gdx when it's been beaten up. like i said, still up 55%. year-to-date. >> so go further down. >> exactly. walk a very fine line. >> i never get gold. i feel like all of the reasons that one would own gold, where the fed was just, you know, easy money, easy money. so that's maybe turning around. it's -- it was an inflation hedge. a deflation hedge. none of those seem to be working. i don't really get -- >> the gdx side was the minuers were thought to go out of business. >> there were so many hedge funds who came out and were out there publicly, talking about positions and how strong their positions were in the gold world. >> and that to me -- >> as a group. >> it's all about positioning.
right now positioning in gold is actually underweight. if you look at levels on gold, 1180 is a level it's held and you can actually trade. you get to this place where karen -- inflation expectations are at 12-year highs. a political environment globally, which has never been more unstable. these are environments to own gold. >> and was it here? >> well, i agree. i think we got to this place where people were more concerned about the dollar strength and rates were going higher and the trade out of low-yield trade alternatives obviously hurts gold. as steve said, you've got to own a piece of gold and don't chase it at the wrong time. this is not chasing at the wrong time. trading from 1180 to 1260 is probably a very interesting trade. >> maybe trump will tweet about it. >> we'll see the impact. still ahead, oil and oil stocks getting crushed today ahead of tomorrow's highly anticipated opec meeting. we'll have the latest from the ground in vienna after the break. i'm melissa lee and you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." extra, extra, read all about it! people want real news.
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opec, will actually come forth with its production cut. the big hope after algiers in september would be they would cut up to 1 million barrels a day. but right up at the last moment before wednesday's meeting, huge question marks remaining about whether there's actually going to happen. the same problems remain that have remained throughout the year. i.e. can re-add saudi arabia and tear on iran and come forward which means that iran either is given exemption or takes part in cuts in production. of course, they have been arguing they want to get market share back. that they lost during sanctions. also question marks about the involvement of iraq. iraq wants an exemptions war, because it's fighting isis in its country. again, saudi playing saying it could potentially walk away from a deal. question marks about whether we need a deal. saudi's oil minister saying the market will rebalance anyway in 2017. yes, the market wants a binary answer, going to cut or not cut and, of course, reprice accordingly.
the price of oil. at this moment with crude trading 4% tuesday, big questions remain of whether there will be any form of a deal here in vienna on wednesday. melissa, back to you. >> steve sedgewick, thank you for. more more, let's bring in the man who correctly predicted the collapse in 2010 and has a time line for when oil could break. hedge fund of rr advisers joins us on the fast line. great to have you again. what is the path of oil, starting with the opec meeting tomorrow? >> well, you know, again, thank you for the time. so our view of all of this is really that, you know, our sort of analogy, it's sort of the concept of a nike swoosh recovery. and so we think about it in sort of the concept of a four to five-year cycle that started in the summer and fall of 2014. we're a couple years into it, off a cliff quickly.
the bottom reach, the trough back earlier this year in january and february. we're gradually beginning to climb, you know, sort of the tail of that swoosh, if you think about that nike in the emblem. and so ultimately, we think as you get into -- we agree with the concept, the 2017 is really the year of rebalancing. irrespective of what opec or doesn't do here. and once you get past into the back half of '17 and into 2018 and '19, ultimately, oil prices need to be significantly higher than where they are today. that's sort of our base case and then we can get into the deliberations around what opec can or can't do here. >> so it almost sounds like it doesn't matter what opec does. you think the swoosh sort of recovery is in place. >> yeah. i mean, to some -- there is a lot of attention focused on opec here, right? i think in one sense, opec is trying to maybe accelerate the time line, if you will, of that
swoosh, turn it into maybe more of a v than an extended swoosh. and i think the real tension there is one of, right, severe financial -- almost call it crisis in some countries, pressure in others. but even the big guys, the saudis and the iraqis, they're running 20% annual budget deficits at this point. kuwait is running a 12% deficit. uie is running a 9% deficit. those are in theory the good guys right inside of opec. we haven't even gotten to nigeria and venezuela yet. so wages are starting to fall. inflation is accelerating, gdp is rolling over. those countries under enormous financial pressure. so they're all trying to collectively craft an outcome to better their position. >> so robert, steve grasso. i can take the other side and that's what markets are about. i think no matter what opec says, the oil movement or direction will be lower.
when you get to 50 to 55, you have hedges that are coming out. you have production that's coming out. and all of the countries that you just stated, basically are pumping, or -- iran. just back online. i don't think they're going to cut production. and if they do, no matter what they say, they never abide by it. so 50 to 55, near-turn top. for me, probably near $40. >> yeah, well -- so time will tell, right? look, in the absence of an opec, right, response or cut here, could we see a sharp move lower into the high 30s or lower 40s. i think we possibly could. to me, that's a huge opportunity, almost back up the truck sort of opportunity. because the other reality here, all the numbers i just gave you about saudi, go down the line, venezuela, et cetera. and by the way, we could talk about the integrated majors all around the world. we could talk about the private sector. the industry is effectively collapsing in a world of 40 and
$45 oil. so the lower we go, the faster we accelerate or impearl the ability of the industry to perform. so if anybody thinks the iraqis and iranians can survive in a world of $40 oil, they don't understand the oil business. >> robert, we've got to leave it there. thank you for phoning in. always great to get your analysis. robert raymond of rr advisers. if this scenario he lace out is true, every equity would be a buy right now. >> i totally agree with what robert says and disagree with what steve says. saudi arabia, once they announced saudi aramp co coming into. there are 200,000 barrels between saudi and iran that i think is separating this deal from getting done. and by the way, the market rallied after failing in doha. so if you have a dynamic -- >> any of these countries cut production. >> they maxed out into a deal. >> these companies -- do you think companies are going to produce less oil around 50 --
where do you think the production comes online? >> saudi arabia can take 800,000 to a million barrels after the street, if they're going to do any deal, 2 to 7. if anything, the market -- >> they all cheat and lie and don't abide by it. so it doesn't matter. we have to trade up -- >> a dynamic that's killing people. these guys have -- >> i'll ask you the question. >> where do you think production balloons? what price? i think it's 50 to 55. i don't think hedges come out at 50 to 55. where do you think? >> i don't think there is that much swing capacity. i think saudi arabia controls most of it. and i think, in fact, iran getting back to 4 million barrels a day is about as good as they could have expected and politically -- >> to play steve's game, though. if we get oil back to 50 to $55 a barrel, don't the u.s. producers come back online and so therefore flood the market -- >> how many of these guys are -- not all of them. half of them are probably going to be out of business already. >> rate counts go up. >> i'm not going to tell you that u.s. production won't come
back online. i think the market is already in balance. and that you have a dynamic here where actually you're going to see an imbalance -- >> so the oil equities, you're a buy. >> not necessarily. >> what's your best one? >> ooh oil, i think the integrated are not cheap at all. some semblance of a deal -- i think they've already got it. >> okay. jts eog, apc, high-growth names that take market share in an environment where not everybody can play here. >> under your scenario, are there oil stocks that are a buy? >> service names. you have to play it close to your vest. obviously, in tim's world -- >> sorry. >> wouldn't oil service companies be the ones most at risk, if you see oil going lower because people are not doing the creative things and looking at the technology. >> i said the top to oil is 50 to 55. and they will be hedges on and people will produce a lot more. if if you produce a lot more, you have to service -- >> so there a lid on f 55. >> in production. >> because production will come back on.
choose your own adventure. which way do you think? >> i wouldn't be surprised to see irrational actions among -- >> what's irrational? >> not having a deal. and having each of them pumping what they can -- >> and oil going -- >> in april, what would the oil market do? >> we're in a different world. the oil market was different, i'll give you that. but now we're looking at u.s. growth. >> demand is -- >> we were looking at 1% gdp in the u.s. in april? i'm not exactly sure. >> would you be able to that be more devastating than an environment where we've got 3. 7 out today and expecting fiscal growth? if anything, the oil market is going to see more demand than we will see in april. still ahead, retail stocks looking for their best month in a year. why one trader is betting the space could plunge. and not just retail, newspaper stocks are soaring since the election. could the resurgence in the
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cnbc's julia boorstin spoke to mark thompson in a rare interview earlier today. >> news organizations have seen a surge in subscriptions as well as stock prices. "new york times" stock up 16% since election day while shares of "usa today" parent gannett and trunk which opens the "l.a. times" up by double digit percentage points. "new york times" ceo mark thompson telling us in a first on cnbc interview the paper has added 132,000 net subscribers since the election. >> subscriptions have been up ten times on the same period last year. so we're seeing a 10x net increase in subscriptions. so, you know, far from failing, we're seeing a remarkable response by new subscribers who like the kind of journalism, independent without fear or favor journalisms, which the
"times" represents. >> this stands in sharp contrast to donald trump's repeated criticism of the "new york times" tweeting as recently as november 13th, quote, wow the "new york times" losing thousands of subscribers because of their very poor and highly inaccurate coverage of the trump phenomenon. the "times" isn't alone. trump's publications saw an average increase in paid digital subscriptions during election week with the "l.a. times" growing 61% election week alone. thompson saying the "times" is benefitting from the contrast to the fake news that facebook and others are trying to crack down on mid concerns that fake articles influence voters. as for concerns that trump will hamper the "new york times" and other news publications ability to do their work by suing and ramping up libel laws, thompson tells us that trump told him in a meeting, i don't think you're going to have anything to worry about. >> thank you so much, julia boorstin. is the tide turning for these
stocks? we're also in a period where a lot of americans want to know, simply, what is going on right now with the new president under way. you're like, no. i don't think so. >> i wouldn't touch it. >> okay. >> i think there is interest in the space, but i still think everybody i talk to, even an age -- there are certain limitations, but you go up into the 60s and 70s, they've all got ipads, their phones. and everybody seems to be accessing information through their phone and a lot of them are either doing twitter or doing facebook or they're doing something. or they're doing something mobile online. but i just don't know how the papers are actually going to survive. >> yeah. i'm a little skeptical -- >> also? >> well, i mean, you know -- a highly contagious political season like this one, that's good for newspapers. good for advertising. that's great. but i'm so skeptical, too, about the way -- just the other day, fidel castro dies. it was not on the cover of the "new york times." unless i'm mistaken, they missed it. it happened before they were
able to go to print. or after, rather, they were able to go to print. that's a very different world. >> right. >> i just think the -- secular headwinds facing the print media, even in digital form, i think -- think also of the way people are consuming news and hopefully real news and not the sensational fabrication. but in bites. the reality is, people aren't sitting down and reading the whole thing and i don't think you need to have that sub skripgs to do it. >> breaking news on trump's cabinet. john harwood outside of trump tower for the details. john. >> reporter: we're just getting word. i have not confirmed it yet but dow jones and the "new york times" are reporting that steven ma unusualin who headed up fund-raising will be his pick for treasury secretary. there have been speculation about others. jeb hence willing of the financial services committee, john allison former chairman of the bb&t bank. we don't have an official
announcement that steven mnuchin will be head pick. donald trump pursues a major tax cut in the early part of his administration. >> all right. john, thank you. john harwood out of trump tower. the news unconfirmed by cnbc that president-elect trump has chosen steven unusualin after rumors of jamie dimon was in the running. gary como going to truchlt. and what do you think of this pick if the reports are true? >> okay. i had thought at the time he signed up to be the finance manager, whatever the role was, i forgot, that that was kind of the idea of it. all right. i'll take a flier. seemed like an absolute flyer at the time. and maybe will end up as secretary of the treasury. >> right. and here we are. >> and here we are. >> look, this is a close link back to wall street.
and on some level, there was an attack on wall street and financial firms. so i think this kind of runs contrary to that. and i think ultimately, it speaks very well to the banking system, and even, you know, there are some elements that include the iran deal on the oil side that actually i think -- look, this is a throwback to a more conventional approach. one that probably we have seen before. >> this is the -- this would be -- he would be the third treasury secretary who hailed from goldman sachs. >> yeah. >> there is a reason, right? very smart people at goldman sachs that come up through the ranks at goldman sachs. there is very smart people everywhere. they just all seem to be on one floor in goldman sachs. and i don't think that's -- >> impressive. >> if you look back on it, there has been this -- bad spot on people's record if they came from a sell-side bank. i think that is close to being over. . is this good for wall street? >> i would say it probably is. >> yeah. >> i was never as negative on wall street if it was a hillary presidency, either.
just because -- i mean, you know. i think that was overplayed, as well. >> right. >> but, yes, i think it is good. >> does it make you go giddyup? >> yes. >> over goldman sachs. >> not over goldman, over the financials. i think they understand the regulatory issues that they have faced for so long, and you're getting somebody who really understands that world so well. >> we always assumed we would -- once trump won, we assumed we would get someone -- >> from the banking industry. >> for very, very -- >> not going to be jamie either. let's turn to another group of stocks that have taken off since the election. retail stocks on track to have their best month since october of 2011. one trader betting the rely retail run is done. mike coe joins us with the action. >> so xrt, the retail etf, as you pointed out, had quite a rally, up almost 9% for the month. quite volatile over the last three. interestingly, even as the volatility in the etf hasn't -- has increased substantially, the price of the options hasn't so much. and one of the institutional
traders have taken advantage of that. six times the average daily put volume of the january 45, 42 put spread. they paid 65 cents for that. that's a bet the etf could decline anywhere from 3 to 9% by january expiration. that makes a lot of sense, because it turns out this etf has underperformed the s&p during the holiday shopping season seven of the last ten years. by an average of about 1%. so taking advantage of the fact options prices aren't up and this is a seasonally weak period for the space, interesting and cheap way to make a bearish bet here. >> mike coe. check out the full show 5:30 eastern time friday. still ahead, more americans are getting high. and according to a top analyst, that is dragging down the beer business. we'll hear from the analysts and give you the names seeing the biggest buzz kill. and we'll give you four stocks that could see big gains through the end of the year. you're watching "fast money" on
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our next guest says legal cannabis is to blame. we cover beverages, marijuana and tobacco and vivian joins us now. great to see you. >> thank you so much for having me. >> so there are states out there, eight plus the district of columbia legalize marijuana and then beer sales go down? it's as simple as that? >> well, not quite. we saw four states pass adult use in this election cycle. so there's really only four states that are open. but what we wanted to do was really try to prove whether legal cannabis was having a negative impact on beer. so we looked at data out of colorado, washington and oregon. and we were able to show that in those adult use markets, beer is underperforming the national trends. >> all right. so by how much? and does this hurt the bottom lines of the beer companies? >> yeah. so the beer volumes are declining about 2% in those three markets cumulatively versus modest growth on a national basis.
so underperforming by about 2.6 percentage points. colorado, washington, oregon, are small in the bigger context of things. but what we are trying to highlight for investors is that there is a real risk to alcohol consumption and in particular beer consumption because of the momentum we're seeing in cannabis. what we're seeing for the beer sub segments, it's really domestic premium and economy beers, so think bud light, coors light, miller high life, those are seeing the biggest declines. and that's pretty consistent with some of the democrgraphicse see around cannabis use where it overindexes to households. >> you have the mexican beer market that had been seen as a potential -- or at potential risk with the trump administration. where do you stand on that in terms of the impact on beer exports from mexico? >> yeah. consolation is our top pick in alcohol. there is no global precedent for
a beer tariff. so it's not quite as easy as just slapping a tariff on anything coming out of mexico. and it really isn't consistent with the spirit of the proposal, because it's not a function of taking jobs out of the u.s. this mexican beer has always been made in mexico. so we don't view it as a real threat. >> all right, vivian, we're going to let you go. thank you so much for your time. >> thank you for having me. >> you know, karen and i were chatting about this. we thought, well, you know, beer sales are going down. maybe snack sales are going up. or fast food. >> what do you mean by that, mel? >> i don't know anything from personal experience. just say no, folks. >> causation versus correlation. why can't it be that the move-away we have all seen, i'm sure, to micro breweries or different sourcing. maybe in those states they're more apt to go for -- >> so you don't necessarily think it's weed. >> i'm sure it's incremental but i don't think it's one for one. >> what about the pizza? >> i like the domino's plan. but i just like domino's.
when all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail. >> what are marijuana sales doing in these places doing? or rolling papers? i don't know, karen. >> wait, why do you look at me? >> i'm just asking a question to the desk. my point, i think the beer industry has been their own worst enemy. consolidation in the beer industry has meant a few players are pushing prices dramatically up and the crap beer industry is a lot more attractive to a lot of these producers, a much higher margin business and people are getting tired of that too. give me a coors light every day, i'm a simple man and the margins in the beer industry have gotten as good as they can get. bud, b-u-d, pulled back 25%. and this stock looks pretty interesting. >> i'll give the trade off that everybody has avoided. it's the pot trade out of this whole thing. and how is the best way to trade cannabis right now? >> i don't know. because everything is too small. >> scott's miracle-gro. >> wow! >> they have made a monster -- >> eighth derivative. >> you look at what their
investment is in cannabis and everything that goes along the entire way, not just the soil but the equipment, and everything. these guys are looking -- take a look at that stock, too, by the way. 52-week highs. >> cheech and chong reruns. >> that's another way to trade. >> the credit to karen firestone on today. she actually bought that at -- >> on halftime. >> 30-odd dollars ago. still ahead, the traders give four stocks that could see big gains until the end of the year. more "fast money" right after this. the first person to survive alzheimer's disease is out there. and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen by funding scientific breakthroughs, advancing public policy, and providing local support to those living with the disease and their caregivers. but we won't get there without you. visit alz.org to join the fight.
welcome back. you may have heard that today is giving tuesday, where americans dig deep into their pockets to make charitable donations. so in lieu of the final trade tonight, we thought we would have the traders pick some stocks that give back. pete. start it off. >> i'm going with microsoft. because they give back in so many ways to all of their people, as well as you look down deep at the founders themselves and how much they give away. there is your stock right there. giddyup. >> grasso. >> he sounds very noble when he says this. >> i am. >> oln gave me a lot of profits so i don't sound nearly as noble as pete does but the stock up 46% year-to-date. so roller coster right, oln. >> karen. >> not a dividend. >> but what did they do for us?
yum. china's spinoff which is what the market wanted. >> ajm still smoking and going higher. >> all right. i'm melissa lee. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want it make friend. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to teach and educate you so call me at 1800-743 -cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. where the dow gained 24