tv Squawk on the Street CNBC December 5, 2016 9:00am-11:01am EST
the mandate seems to me the health care tax and also the device tax. so i think there's a lot of things that can go out and some good things that come in. there's going to be a lot of debate before it's done, but i think he's going to follow through on his promise to amend it. i hope it isn't repealed. they may call it repeal, but it will at least be amended. i think it's in the national interest. >> larry, thank you for being here today. thank you, i don't know who, i'll be here tomorrow. make sure you join us. "squawk on the street" coming up next. ♪ good monday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at the new york stock exchange. david faber is live at the no labels conference in washington, an exclusive interview with billionaire investor nelson peltz is coming up. in the meantime dow looks to open at a new high. in italy, euro hits a 21-month low but recovers after failed referendum and oil at a 17-month high today.
our road map begins with a tweet storm from president-elect trump weighing in on trade and china. italian prime minister renzi says he'll step down after losing that key referendum vote. and rbc suggests an espn spin-off could create value for disney. more on that coming up this hour. first up, president-elect sounding off on twitter from everything from china to ta wan to taxes businesses moving from the u.s. to china. did china ask us if it was okay to devalue their currency making it hard for our companies to compete, the u.s. doesn't tax them or to build a massive military complex in the middle of the south china sea? i don't think so. jim, this was the talk of the weekend. >> as it should be. i think that one of the things that's happened is that we're used to a very formal way things are done. first you hear about a call from taiwan. obviously it's not supposed to be taken in the old regime. and then you're supposed to if you do take it minimize it.
but this was maximizing it. i think trump is breaking with all sorts of protocols, whether it be state department, whether it be environment. and this is all part of it. it's a way to be able to state your case that china can't take the jobs. it does seem like right now we have two issues of trump. we've got that repatriation lower taxation issue. okay. and then we've got the, listen, we're defending the working person. and i think that wall street's going to be a little surprised about the real defense of the working person. i think people felt that maybe that wasn't sincere. well, these actions are certainly sincere. >> right. but is it free trade? is it a free market? again taking on rex nard now, right? >> yes, it's not free trade. historically known as fair trade. some people feel fair trade means tariffs. other people feel maybe this is just a way to be able to say, hey, listen, guys, you're americans first, you're not globalist first. so i don't know which one's which, but they're both very subtle. i'm going to try to explore them
tonight with united technologies, greg hayes, great manufacturer, building a new engine where we're going from. it's better than everybody's, but will it be hurt by this? >> what do you want to ask hayes tonight on "mad money"? first time we've heard from him after the carrier deal. >> again, because the notion we're coming from the floor and brand new engine they have, out of respect to where we are, about american manufacturing, we'll address that. but i also do want to know whether have things changed for american business people? are you supposed to be an american first and then a globalist? what do you get if you move overseas now if you're in a situation where a president might take aim at you? and maybe moving to mexico made sense until now. so, i mean, i think when i saw the rexnord, it felt so much less one-off. it's still indiana, but that's very significant they can move that plant to mexico. it's turning out to be a little more than talk. >> yes. i think that's generally the take on the tweets over the weekend.
david, i'm sure you've been watching this as well. words like retribution, words like consequences. you got ben sassy now saying how does this not translate into a 35% tax on the consumer if this tariff actually happens? >> yeah, that is a key question of course, carl, as you say, are things going to become a lot more expensive when you go to walmart and buy them? you know, we've used the word uncertainty so often over these last eight, nine years since the financial crisis first hit as you take a look there of course in terms of president-elect's tweets on rexnord and others. but you've got to imagine, guys, right, if you're running a multinational right now, and certainly i'm interested to hear what greg hayes has to say, jim, but if you're running one, you've got a lot of uncertainty. particularly if you're selling a lot of things in china or doing a lot of business in china, whether it's manufacturing there or anything else. because it is clear that that relationship is in some sort of flux, it would seem, as a result of the incoming administration.
and i don't know what you do other than just wait and see how everything settles, jim, if you're running a multinational business right now. >> david, you're so right. i looked at how many companies in the s&p that can be hurt by this and there's a huge number of companies that have benefitted from our china policy. and i think that somehow we're forgetting that that could go away or that the chinese could make life very hard. if you just look at qualcomm, there's a very good example of how hard china can play. and if they played hardball with all our companies, whether it be proctor & gamble or a company like skyworks solutions makes a lot of equipment there, i think you would start paying less for these companies. so far we're not. so far there's an air of good feeling willing to overlook what could happen to caterpillar, which would be so, so -- let's say just a number cutting event.
>> right. >> be big. >> right. but when you're making decisions now in terms of investing, do you need to look at the revenue side and see, well, what percentage comes from overseas? what percentages derive from any market, forget china? and separately, if you're apple, jim, and you're in manufacturing and employing so many people there, you're employing so many people in china, but at the same time what about your manufacturing? yeah. >> well, there's also your supplier base, which in many cases is domestic focused. >> yes. and i think that now it's absolutely true you could bring a chinese plant back to mexico without running afoul of the president. the president is perfectly willing to have a one-state win over another, but obviously that's always been the case in our country. but, yeah, i spent most of the weekend saying, okay, look, who's got stuff overseas, who's got stuff in china? making a long list. and the list was too long. frankly, it's way too many companies in the s&p. you got to go to the small caps, you got to go to the russell.
and maybe did the russell's big run anticipate exactly what's happening here? >> speaking of that run, stocks are poised to open higher as markets all around the globe essentially shrug off the rejection of the italian referendum. the euro did recover from the 21-month low earlier this morning, jim. as we said, looking at a dow record at the open, s&p though first losing week since the election. >> right. >> is the rally fading? that's the question. >> i think the rally has to struggle here. good example, italy comes out and immediately i get hit by a half dozen hedge funds notes saying, okay, the lira is coming back. i was at one point talking to my wife about if you go to italy with the lira, how about the overarching hedge fund this is the end of the world no matter what happens contrasted with the recognition that the brexit poll was wrong, trump poll was wrong and whoever thought renzi was going to stay -- i mean, i was thinking is it going to be 70/30. so we've kind of adjusted the idea that the pollster haves no clue, not that the people have
no clue. >> now the surprise is austria, right? >> shocker. shocker. i mean, look, i think we all kind of recognize that those who sold on brexit, those who sold on trump, they never got back in. those who sold on, you know, linkedin and tablo data in february didn't get back in. so the sellers are not numerous, how about that? >> yeah, a lot of debate this morning on whether or not this is in fact a pro brexit vote because a majority of italians still favor the euro. and the rules that would have been changed could have been used for any type of politician who came in after renzi. >> well, there are two italys. there's the italy in the north industrial manufacturer that very much favors the euro, and then there's the italy in the south, which is poor and desperately needs help. so i think what we recognize from this vote is that it's not one italy. and therefore it's not as scleer cut that they are going to abandon the eu. >> for more on the referendum
let's get to julia chatterley who joins us live in rome. >> reporter: good morning, guys, as you're quite rightly saying the latest from rome here is at 12:30 eastern time we're expecting prime minister renzi to hold his final cabinet meeting. then he'll go off and present his formal resignation to the president. at that point the president has two choices, he can either accept it or he can reject it. now, if he rejects it, it means renzi stays around, he has to face a confidence vote in parliament likely by the end of the week. but for all the reasons, guys, you were just mentioning, tough to see him win this. what's more likely is the president accepts it and then the hunt is on basically for his replacement. someone to lead an interim caretaker government at least in the short term. now, so far so expected, if you trust the polls. and i think if you look at this, we were questioning to what extent this result was in the price. look at the banks year-to-date down 50%. today they're losing a further
4% to 4.5%, but i think investors will remain sensitive to headline here particularly surrounding the country's third largest bank, who's actually trying to raise cash this week if possible. so, guys, watch headline risk still around the banks and of course wait for that decision from the president later. back to you. >> all right. julia will be watching for that. let's get more here from david about the heavy hitters of the no labels conference today, david. we do have some coming up on our show. >> yeah, we do, carl, that's right. of course the conference itself is sort of a focus on secenteri politics. we're going to be speaking with the likes of nelson peltz of trian. want his take on what he thinks about investing in multinationals as of course his firm has done to a large extent. both domestic and internationally. and we're going to talk about business. but we will hit a bit of politics with him. also be talking with scott
sperling of th lee about the private equity landscape. and again coming back as we so often do and need to here, what does it actually mean in terms of this incoming trump administration for the way these guys view the world? we'll have them coming up. >> all right, david, sounds good. when we come back, is it time for disney to sell espn? rbc has a note out on that this morning. also ahead, exclusive with new york fed president bill dudley, a lot to talk about next week's fed policy meeting a week from wednesday. take another look at the premarket. for the dow record we need 19,225, looks like we'll get it. back after a short break. those ? they are. do i look smarter? yeah, a little. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing.
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with concerns about espn subscriber numbers weighing on disney's stock this year, rbc is out with a note this morning saying the dow component should consider divesting the sports network because such a move would create value. approach suggested by rbc including spinning off espn into a publicly traded company selling the network in a taxed transaction. title of the report is, it's not you, it's me. and it's about how this used to be considered the crown jewel, now it's considered a liability. >> well, i do think the piece makes one point that is very important, which is called d rating. d rating in wall street term
meaning that wall street is espn is now pulling down disney stock. and if you freed it from espn, which is really incredible because just a few years ago when they were 100 million, the idea of freeing -- i wanted to free espn from the rest of disney because i wanted to own espn. this seems a little fickle to me, but it does seem and i want to defer to david that this kind of piece would not be sanctioned, so to speak, if bob iger hadn't said, hey, why don't you float it. david, is that too calculated and too cynical a view? >> yeah, i don't know, jim. i mean, there are times when companies sort of want the analyst community to soften up the investor base for something that's coming that may not have been expected, or that might have been received unhappily if it were just a huge surprise. we mentioned this earlier at least last week when bernstein came out with that piece, remember, about them buying netfl netflix. this idea. but i don't necessarily think they're behind it. you know, the fact is that
companies are always considering all sorts of things. and they're constantly getting called on by investment bankers to consider things. and it is my belief that disney has been brought this idea over the years. hey, would you ever consider spinning out espn in some fashion, different structures for doing it. i think what's interesting -- now somehow an overhang on this company as opposed to a huge benefit to it is very interesting from an investor perspective. whether or not anything comes of it who knows. and as you guys both know it was john malone on november 10th who i think started this conversation again during our interview, if you want to take a listen, less than a month ago when he had this to say about disney and espn. >> if i had to guess, what you will see is a split of disney with espn spun off and probably espn could be owned and protected by a distributor in
the u.s. >> right. so malone having this idea of doing that. and as distributor namely a cable company or what we call still cable companies owning it in some fashion, guys. we'll see. but, jim, it is interesting to see how many pages have been written recently about disney's future. >> yeah. i find it a little quizzical if only because in the last conference call in the last earnings there was just a tremendous, i think, ratification of why bob iger thinks that espn has turned. at the same time, david, we get these results from neilsen and show the last two months being very down. now, one thing that bob iger has said is there are many ways to look at espn and that maybe the neilsen way is too narrow. i don't know, can we just dismiss iger was more bullish on disney and espn last time on? >> can we what, jim, say that again? >> can we dismiss the notion of that last conference call where
iger point-blank said there are a lot of ways to look at this thing. that would be in reputation to this piece we read this morning. >> yeah, i agree with you. i think those were important comments. and they certainly were taken by the market to have been important in the sense that many get is that this is not necessarily something that is keeping them up at night. but i don't know. you know, at&t/time warner still changed people's perceptions of things, i think. and so we haven't yet seen the ramifications of that deal, in fact if it actually occurs, which is most likely. and what that's going to really mean in terms of putting pressure on the other companies that are out there including disney. whether you buy or whether you do consider something in the past you perhaps had already thought about and dismissed. >> they point out, i mean, rbc's view is that the very nature of live sports is changing. just because of the changing channels of distribution. and as a result they're no more about movies and shows and parks
and products. >> well, look, folks sometimes fickle. i remember moments in time when time warner thought spin out hbo and look at the value of time warner together. i was watching a lot of espn this weekend like many others looking who's going to be in the finals for ncaa and watching "sports center." i just think that the idea that this is somehow not additive but is now subtracted because of some losses of subs seems a little, let's just say, fanciful, given the fact that if you had one month that was actually stable, then people would say, holy cow, why did they get rid of that? >> yeah. there's also the added irony that just last thursday, i believe, it was bernstein on why disney should buy in that case netflix, right? so everyone's got thoughts on m&a coming and going. >> i know. david was talking about how twitter may maybe they were looking at twitter. every day i think david's so right, bankers hit anybody who's got a good balance sheet whose stock is going down. and disney in particular is just
something people love to talk about. david, there's so much conjecture here it's almost out of, let's say out of character versus every other stock i follow. >> yeah, it is interesting. again, a lot of pages being written by various analysts and various things. and so you do start to wonder. and i've gotten hit from so many investors as well sort of saying, well, is something going to happen here in some fashion? it's hard to imagine either way at this point that disney would make a big purchase and/or ever consider a split that we're discussing, but it is certainly not unimaginable. >> that may be the big issue. >> yes. >> not unimaginable. >> when we come back we'll get cramer's mad dash and countdown to the opening bell. take another look at the premarket on this monday morning. busy week ahead more "squawk on the street" after a break. which? eees. bees? eese. trees? eese.
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♪ just about seven minutes to the opening bell. let's get cramer's mad dash. >> talking about apple, driving self-car autonomous, saying don't really need to do this through the autos. i think people feel they have to do something car because car's such a big market. this is again the idea of moving away from just mobile. why do they have to do that? one of the reasons is the note out from ubs saying shares good all over the globe but losing
some share in china. a price target of $127, but he's been a faux bull. he's had so many negative things to say, i wish he would go to a sell already. but this stock has been a battleground, as has tech. and i'm pointing to the fact tech is making a rebound today. i don't know if apple will dallas-ft. worth, b -- do it, but the apple car issue people want to see because it has to do with the -- >> you've repeated source of funds meant to fund other areas of the market. is that the case? >> i think apple is. i noticed facebook is making a stand, nvidia's making a stand. a lot of companies were, i felt, has seen stocks go down after workday, they did go down, that's workday disappointment, and then they bounced back. i still find this is an area that you could easily relate a tweet about china from trump to this stock and say, you know, i'm going to pay lower multiple for it. something we talked about at the
top of the show, i'm very concerned about this because i think there's going to be some eggs broken to make an omelet of china being, let's say more ball playing, which is what trump really wants. and the ballplayers, well, i mean, if they get to get their way, maybe apple is going to be -- you don't want to buy a lot of tech. >> yeah, a big story for '17 for sure. we'll get the opening bell in just a couple minutes. don't go away.
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you're watching cnbc "squawk on the street" live from the financial capital of the world. the opening bell two minutes ahead. light on data but will get earnings, auto zone, lulu and some others. the italian referendum fails, renzi will leave. people are tweeting a picture that was taken this summer of obama, hollande, cameron, renzi. only merkel is the one of this group standing that will be here next year. >> you know, there are a lot of people who just actually,
actually said this weekend that this vote, the italian vote, is to force germany's hand to spend more money. because germany's been very tight fisted. germany said over and over again -- other people say, look, this is about immigration. if it's all about immigration, then what you're seeing is this wholesale rejection that does fit in much more with trump, meaning that it's about workers trying to keep their jobs or take jobs back. i think it's more about economics. i think it's more about the latter. and that's why germany's got full employment so there's not that much of an issue. >> right. >> i don't know. i've got to tell you that the reaction overnight of the chaos that we were going to have is just something that reminds me of the period say august of last year to august of this year where every bit of news was interpreted negative. this is not being interpreted negatively. >> no. >> positively. >> yeah. something to watch. whether or not we're in the midst of a sentiment sea change
when it comes to results like this. let get the opening bell and the s&p at the bottom of your screen. at the big board this morning it's insurance company egon and at the nasdaq paragon, parent company of north carolina based paragon bank. oil as we said earlier highest since july of 2015, as we're now above $52. >> there is -- there are two things going on with domestic oil. one is obviously they get this umbrella of the saudis. they make some pretty good money here because technology has driven down the cost, particularly in the permian. but also i think there's this understanding that this is a big winner under a trump regime. that there had been -- we had someone from north dakota talking in squawk saying that the obama period was about keeping fossil fuels in the ground. i feel that a lot of people
think as trump immediately going to the dakota pipeline saying it's a good thing, that this is an era about taking fossil fuels out of the ground. whether it be coal, oil, you'll see freeport up today. and that's a very big change. again, i know that it's to default constantly to trump seems wrong, but there's a reason why an eog or a pioneer have gotten well ahead of the majors. and i think it's because there's a sense that these companies are going to have the most favored stocks. think about who's being talked about for state department. >> yes. yes. and all the names you just mentioned along with chesapeake and cabot and range and murphy and hess are leading the s&p. with the dow now keeping an eye on that at an all-time high. >> look, i think these independent oils obviously they are able to open. we saw a rig count again baker hughes looking good last week. but i emphasize if you think like marathon petroleum ceo when
he came on "mad money" that trump is a good friend of this industry, that means friend of pipelines makes it more economic, it means that a friend of permitting, that permitting process taking too long. and, look, the army corps of engineers, viewed as independent but obviously trump feels you staff these different agencies and organizations with his people and what happened with the $3.8 billion dakota pipeline will never happen under trump. >> right. any chance happens down the road? >> yeah, definitely. i think one of the things trump has talked about openly is deregulation. the idea that the army corps of engineers would be able to get in and acede to what the protesters want would almost never happen under trump. i'm saying deregulation is easier to permit. people understand deregulation has to do with getting something done in trump's eyes, and getting something done is not letting a $3.8 billion pipeline that has a lot of money, a lot of ability to get bakken oil down, that doesn't get sidetracked anymore. that's what he would be hoping
to do. >> yeah. some research to get to. we haven't done mcdonald's upgrade. >> i think that was important. >> ups to buy. last thursday guggenheim cut it. remember we talked about that last week. >> yeah. >> in this case they say november might be the best month of the year. >> when i read this i said to myself though, wait a second, if november's the best month of the year, the shorts who were put out last week on that call will obviously be very wrong. mcdonald's had a little softer number last time, this would be very positive particularly in the light of the fact the note goes onto say the pipeline -- we haven't heard this term associated with mcdonald's in a long time, the pipeline including fresh beef is very promising. this also people should remember is a weak dollar play. and we have a very strong dollar, which people seem to have -- there was a time when all we did was think about, oh, my god, the euro at 1.06, sell everything international. but the era of good feeling from trump doesn't seem to -- it obscures some of these negatives. you would have looked at italy, looked at the dollar versus
21-month low of euro and you would have said, wait a second, i got to sell mcdonald's. but that isn't getting factored in. is it form of bullishness? to some degree i think it has to be considered. >> right. forex has been replaced by other dynamics, deregulation, lower taxes. >> exactly. here we go. lower taxes. >> more competitiveness. more u.s.-based competitiveness, right? >> exactly. and i think that -- are we getting ahead of ourselves? look, if mcdonald's does have good november numbers you'll regret you sold it and then we'll be closer and closer to perhaps some big changes in washington. there's a lot and a lack of cynicism on wall street. idealism about trump that plays in every single day. and when i saw that euro plummet, i said, oh, boy, they're going to come after cat, they're going to find mcdonald's. i come in this morning and it's almost irrelevant. what was relevant before is irrelevant now. transition people at home have to understand. the things we were looking at
before that made us sell, we don't care about anymore. >> it's so true. on that point the only dow component doing better than mcdonald's is goldman and visa. goldman initiated at hsbc with a buy, $2.50 target implies another 12% from here. >> i did a piece this weekend for real money and what it is is looking at what groups are unassailablely being used as positive. banking group, goldman even though it's come up a lot is behind the group for multiple years, but there's just no flies on the banking theory. it doesn't have worry about china. it doesn't have big labor issues that might come up in terms of offshoring. so it's become the go-to group. it's a very big group in the s&p. and it can create a rosy pa numb ra over the markets. >> so sustained energy strength together where does that take you going into year end? have you thought about that yet? >> well, i think if you get people realizing, holy cow, i
haven't owned a bank stock, i've been avoiding bank stocks, those are very liquid stocks and they can absorb things. my concern though is that if you see more tweets about china, then rather than want to be in a proctor & gamble, which has big chinese business, you'll come back and say i want to be in bank of america. and that's the way these institutions think. they say i don't want to -- i want to sleep at night. proctor & gamble historically a sleep at night stock because they have worldwide growth. if president-elect trump were to tweet right now, sorry, proktct, there are bigger issues at stake. would that shock you? it's not about tide. it's about the american worker. if he watches, that'd be something and you'd see that -- >> i think our neverves are getting deadened -- >> yes, i'm worried about pfizer. last week brent saunders came out and said be very careful about maybe the president-elect
could tweet against pharma and then the fantastic executive from regeneron said maybe these price increases are no-go. a tweet, a vicious tweet from trump after reading brent saunders' allergan piece, again, something new to think about. >> indeed. speaking of big cap pharma, barron's has a list of top stocks for next year, their favorite ten. merck's one of them along with alphabet, apple, citi, delta, disney, unilever, toll. >> merck has been so underrated ever since ketruda, a better drug for cancer perhaps -- many different cancers than opdivo. i like that list but my problem is if you're a globalist, you may be thinking incorrectly about the new white house. because they're not globalists. they want ceos from america to think about america first. and then the global markets. as opposed to globalist ceos who
live in america. i know that sounds like all i'm doing is an anagram, but it's not an anagram. it's about new policy. >> jim, as we're talking, amazon has unveiled a new product called amazon go. >> i want it. i got to find out what it is first. >> a new kind of store, they say, with no checkout required. you'd never wait in line, you walk out. you use an app to enter the store, you take the products you want, you exit. no lines, no checkout. we're going to find out more about this later. >> kevin johnson being elevated at starbucks with the idea of technology being important in retail, well, this basically says whatever you buy is meaningless, what matters is speed, time, that's something mark zuckerberg talks about endlessly at facebook. >> i'm told we have some video of it. i'm not sure when we get it. i think it might be coming up here. this literally has just been sent to us a few moments ago by the company.
when we get a look at it, we'll share it with the viewers. >> what can i say, i'm an amazon prime member. >> you can keep going. amazon go. no lines. no checkout. no, seriously. >> so this is a -- this is a retail concept we're being introduced to. >> a competitive advantage that, can we just please? it's still hard to be able to use the mobile app for starbucks, but yes, i mean, obviously lines are the bane of restaurants and retailers. >> costco struggled for years. >> the line. and i think when you go back over -- if you parse what howard schultz has been saying in the last two years of conference calls, a lot is the mall is dead, but a lot is throughput, throughput. chipotle talks about throughput. this is about throughput. if you eliminate the friction of the line, then, you know, i got to tell you i often buy nine things in the supermarket just
to not be in the other line. >> yeah. start get the express lane, right? >> the heck with the lettuce. this is kind of a logical progression about what millennials want, what generation x wants, which is i want it now, i want it inexpensive. and i don't want to ever have to wait. that is, geez, i don't know, i got used to waiting. >> this does feel like a new push into perishables, right, given the limited amount of information we have. >> well, i mean, those perishables, when you order, you kind of have to be there. you can't have to have a steak sitting outside on your porch on a warm summer day. >> does not lend itself to delivery. there's some cities with one hour, which we know about. >> right. i just -- look, i mean, i'm sure if you're a kroger right now you're saying, come on, guys, would you give us a break? could you just stop taking our business? please. >> is faber with us? is he still listening in? >> i'm here, guys. >> you are? what do you make of it, david?
>> i'm here, carl. yeah. you know, look, the first question i have is do they need to have a lot more physical locations if they're actually going to pursue this strategy? i would assume it's something they'll roll out very, very limited initially. but does it in some way raise the question as to either they're going to license this to other stores. i haven't seen the release you have but i don't know if we have any of these questions answered. >> one thing's for certain, it's cheaper to not have $15 an hour people at the register. this is about labor. they would have a competitive advantage over anybody who has to pay $15 an hour to a checker. worth thinking about. >> yeah. >> more jobs get lost by technology than by offshoring. >> that's a lot of cashiers that you do not need. you got to develop the software and all of that. >> but, boy, people matter too. wow. >> we'll watch that one. bring you more on it later today. meanwhile, we told you dow
all-time high. dot com which y dom chu is on the floor. >> we have a lot of vips behind me at post six, but if you take a look at the overall picture for stocks right now, we're building off a very, very solid week last week. you can see gains here about half a percent to the upside for the nasdaq, the dow and s&p 500. if you look at the sector leadership so far, at least in the first ten or 15 minutes of trading so far today, you've got the usual cyclical economically sensitive sectors, financials, materials, energy, those guys leading the way higher. consumer staples, utilities, telecom, the interest rate sensitive big dividend paying stocks really lagging so far underperforming today. focusing in on one sector specifically here and that's energy because over the course of the past week the energy stocks had been the best performer. we know on the heels of the opec production cut deal that happened, we know that oil future contracts had record high trading, a lot of options betting on bullish oil in the coming weeks and months here. but marathon, transocean, 14 of the s&p 500 companies that were the top performers last week
were oil and gas related. and that's carrying through and in trading today. one other sector i want to focus on is the gold miners, gold prices continue to fall this morning down about $10. futures side $1167 so far. downgrades from citi, newmont mining, kinross gold, oil price slide not matching so much. we'll watch the gold miners etf ticker gdx to see any kind of reaction on that front as well for the broader gold miner index. one other thing to hint at, we spoken so much about the idea that donald trump is tweeting against china. one other china headline that hasn't gotten a lot of attention here in the u.s. is the fact their shenzhen hong kong stock exchange, their connect, that link between those two exchanges, has kicked off today on monday. not a lot of fanfare, but the shenzhen's kind of like the nasdaq, some people say, of china, versus the shanghai, which is like the nyse. we'll see if there are any developments on the trading front between the mainland and hong kong, guys, back to you. >> dom, see you in a bit.
let's get to the bond pits as well. rick santelli at the cme in chicago. good morning, rick. >> good morning, carl. the referendum was predicted by all, but maybe the market response was a little bit more aggressive in a way unforeseen as we see most of the yields are up throughout europe especially italian 10s. they're up about 14 basis points around 2.04. but if you look at those they really haven't broken out of their more extreme range they've exhibited as some market prepared. we have jobs numbers. look at two-day charts of two-year, we're up, yes, but not as much as we were on the spike highs after the data. same could be said for tens. open to one week. you can clearly see we didn't quite reach up to the 2.49 level that we did friday, but rates are still higher. up five basis points on a 10, up three on a 2. so a little curve steepening, rather unusual of late. let's go to the backyard referendum and look at a one-week of bunds. in the mid 30s still haven't broken out of their range, but maybe the most important thing
to look at is the relationship of what is left of the relative value trade from the beginning of november, if you look at the difference to spread between our 10s and bund yields, it's hovering around 2.07. as extreme as that is, you can see it's in a flattening range and holding actually quite stable. a one-week of the euro versus the dollar, there's your money trade. you can see that it did a u-turn, lower there and higher, we've talked about this. the four-year chart can't be easier than this on a closing basis, you really need to close under 1.05 to perpetuate any downside momentum to the euro currency. back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. as we said earlier, oil at a high today. jackie's at the nymex. >> breaking through $52 a barrel certainly was a key resistance level. and that's important here because we tested it last week. now, the strength to move higher from here maybe somewhat muted, maybe 55 is what i'm hearing. that's certainly the next level to watch. the dollar index is a big part
of this trade. and there's two pieces to that story. obviously one of them of course is the trump trade has brought the dollar higher, but also dollar's come higher ahead of the fed. we're seeing that back off a little bit. and if we see what we saw last time ahead of the fed where the dollar index moves higher and then it comes down, that will be supportive of crude oil prices. additionally, there's a trump bias to this trade as well. the belief of course that there will be positive changes to come from the administration and that those changes will come quite quickly, that the industry here will regulate itself to keep these prices higher. so that's not only going to move the futures but those stocks that dom chu mentioned as well. back to you. >> thank you very much, jackie deangelis. when we come back exclusive with new york fed president bill dudley, talk rates, economic growth and trump presidency on the agenda. and billionaire nelson peltz with his take on the investment climate, trump rally and a lot more. david has that exclusive interview coming up. and dow at an all-time high.
how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values which then become subject to unexpected unexpect ed and prolonged contractions. >> 20 years ago today then-fed chairman alan greenspan delivered his irrational exuberance speech expressing concerns about stock valuations. of course we know in three years after that s&p almost doubled, again. >> right. that's why whether it be the biotechs and janet yellen, excuse me, or alan greenspan, it doesn't pay for the fed to comment on those kinds of things. the fed can comment obviously on rates and talk about the economy, but as soon as they kind of wade into the stock market, they really become forecasters. there's no need to forecast. just doing something they shouldn't do. >> yeah, original quote was all about a low inflationary environment, right? so something like we're in. >> well, look, i think greenspan
learned his lesson. i do believe that you set yourself up. there's no reason for the federal reserve to ever put themselves in a situation where we re-run a tape that makes them look so foolish. alan greenspan is not a foolish man, but that's one of those comments where you say to yourself what was he thinking, because it turned out to be rational and exuberant. >> yeah. >> and we're rational and exuberant right now according to the buyers taking the dow up, because they believe we're in a new regime that's going to grow much more. are they apropos of each other? there are times when animal spirits run and we cite cummins and caterpillar won't be hurt and by deregulation and by what's happening in oil and gas, so i struggle here like everybody trying to be not too bullish. that's what i think people are trying to do. >> i know what you mean. and as for the fed it's one thing for yellen to answer a question about biotech
valuations on the hill. but it's another to put words like that in a speech and read them off. >> also puts them in a box. if he cuts rates, then suddenly you have an elevation. so why reduce something that may set you up into not being able to do something else? >> we'll get stop trading with jim in just a moment. dow's up 95. anything worth pursuing hard work and a plan. at baird, we approach your wealth management strategy the same way to create a financial plan built to last from generation to generation. we'll listen. we'll talk. we'll plan.
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on xfinity x1. time for cramer and stop trading. >> analysts keep fighting this bank rally. another downgrade of key today. it's endless on what keeps happening, they go up. bank of america's probably been the most stealth plus 29% rally i have ever seen in my life. this is a company that of course has a huge american franchise, benefitting from higher rates which we're having again today. it would benefit tremendously by deregulation, it would benefit amazingly by the idea the fed raises. so just be aware these have been fought, these rallies have been fought. no one has been recommending bank of america. people have been downgrading banks. look what this is about. i think it's important to point out where the money is really going. the volume is huge in bank of america. >> yeah. >> and it has been an unbelievable stock. but all it is is back to where it was in november of 2008. >> so just really quick, at what point would it be giddy to be
buying? >> 25 is the price i would be saying is where i would now feel like, wait a second, it's so far above book, have multiple rate hikes, but that's still a distance. these stocks are so far behind the market it's painful. >> fascinating. you have a big night tonight. >> yes, we're going to go up -- the plan we see the gear turbo fantasy a big engine greg hayes united technologies talk about manufacturie ining might and th partnership -- i have quotes around that, between the government and business, and what does it mean? and i can't wait to get up there. i'm excited about the engine which is very environment tally friendly, but i'm also excited to hear about what greg thinks about being a ceo in a new word, being american ceo or global ceo based in america and what does it mean for someone trying to sell a lot of engines and heating air-conditioning and ventilation equipment. >> the ainterview is important,
♪ good monday morning. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with kayla tausche at post nine of the new york stock exchange. sara's off today. david faber's at the no labels conference in washington. he's going to join us shortly with an exclusive interview with billionaire investor trian fund management's nelson peltz. in the meantime quick check on the markets here. dow did set an all-time high at the get-go. s&p working off its first losing streak since the election and voters in italy delivering a stinging loss to that country's prime minister, matteo renzi will step down after the referendum fails. we're watching that. meantime donald trump issuing a hard warning to business overseas. u.s. former managing director at the institute for international finance charles here as well, but first, john harwood is
outside trump tower with the latest on all of that. john. >> reporter: carl, we've had a step forward in the transition process today. the president-elect has named dr. ben carson as his choice to be the secretary of housing and urban development filling one of the vacant posts in his cabinet. still waiting to hear on secretary of state. what the president-elect has not made a choice yet, but donald trump made news over the weekend in ways other than with filling out his cabinet. first of all, he pushed back against the idea that the carrier deal he announced last week was simply accomplished by giving tax benefits to carrier. he sent out tweets saying companies in the future that look to leave will be subject to a 35% tax. now, donald trump also made news by accepting a phone call from the leader of taiwan. this is something that ruffled the feathers of the chinese because of their one-china policy. they don't recognize taiwan as an independent country.
now, initially the trump team sought to dampen the impact of that call by saying that it was simply a call that was placed by the leader of taiwan, not by president trump. and mike pence yesterday on the sunday shows called it a curtesy call. >> we just say to our counterparts in china that this was a moment of curtesy. the president-elect spoke with the president two weeks ago in the same manner that was not a discussion about policy. >> reporter: now, donald trump struck a much different tone in tweets within the last 24 hours. what he said was, did china ask us for permission to devalue their currency or make it harder for u.s. firms to import through tariffs or to try to stake a claim on the south china sea? so there you have donald trump
not sending the signal that it was merely an inconsequential courtesy call but trying to make a point to the chinese. this is an unpredictable president-elect and we've seen that and chinese are discovering that now, carl. >> i'll take it from there, john. john harwood outside trump tower. for now joined by former deputy u.s. secretary of treasury, ambassador bob kimmet. was this a courtesy call or sgung #do you think it was intentionally provocative? >> kayla, i'll let the transition respond directly to that. i would just note that the taiwan relations act that was passed at the time of normalization of relations with china anticipates both a significant u.s. presence on taiwan. weapon sales have been allowed including in the most recent administration those have gone forward. and i think really important to note is that both the u.s. and taiwan sit in apec, the asia
pacific economic cooperation, so there has been interaction with taiwan. with regard to the call itself though i defer to the transition and the president-elect. >> and apec which you just mentioned met a couple weeks ago at that meeting, china brought forth its own asia wide trade deal. what sort of position does that put our asia allies in as we discuss ripping apart tpp, putting a new trade deal in place, getting tougher on china. is there a potential that another deal gets done in the meantime that puts our allies in a difficult position? >> i think our allies are looking for u.s. leadership in the asia pacific region. i think that is political, military and economic. i think the president-elect has said that he thought tpp was badly negotiated. i did not hear him say that there should not be a trade deal in the asia pacific region. although it could be a collection of bilateral agreements rather than larger
multilateral agreement, but personally i would like to see the rules written on the basis of what the u.s., europe and other free market democratic economies see as the proper way to a successful global economy. will there be some competitiveness with china? absolutely. if that plays out in apec, plays out in the g20 and elsewhere, i think the u.s. has an important leadership role to play on trade. i don't think the president-elect is going to shrink from that leadership role. >> if you were a company mapping out your strategy for 2017, you have operations in china, you have operations in asia, how should you be thinking about what happens next year? >> i think i would engage right away with the transition, and certainly engage very soon after the inauguration with the new administration and with the congress. i think that there are going to be good opportunities. i hope on the basis of free and fair trade, flexible exchange rates, the free flow of capital
across borders based on open investment policies, i think companies can help push for that. companies also of course are going to want to work with the new administration on lowering taxes to leading regulations that are harming the opportunity to create good jobs in the united states. by the way, that includes investment coming from overseas. there's 6.5 million americans who work in this country for companies headquartered overseas. 40% of those jobs are in manufacturing. so we want to make sure there's an open investment and open trading system. and i would just judge it by one question, how does it effect those small and medium size enterprises who create 75% of the new jobs in the united states? >> finally, the net was widened over the weekend for potential designees for secretary of state to include former utah governor john huntsman jr., who of course was former ambassador to china. how strongly do you think the china relationship should figure
as the president-elect is choosing his secretary of state? >> the china relationship is one of the most important bilateral relationships. and so whether state, defense or treasury, it certainly should figure into the calculus when the president makes his final personnel decisions. by the way, not just at the cabinet level but the sub cabinet level. and i would say for the secretary of the treasury there are some things right on the agenda with regard to china, from the currency report to cases that come before the committee on foreign investment, which he will chair, to activities in the g20. and then also working with china on economic sanctions against iran and north korea in the permanent five for the u.n. security council. state will be an important part for that, but so will treasury. >> there's a long list of to-dos, but at some point we got to get started. bob, we appreciate your time today. >> thank you, kayla. >> bob kimmitt is former deputy
u.s. treasury secretary. you saw the dow hit an all-time high at the open. joining us here at post nine rk former managing director at the institute for international finance, charles delara, now partner and vice chairman at the partners group. good to have you back, charles. >> good to be with you, carl, kayla. >> people can't even agree whether or not this was a center right vote or what voters had in mind when they considered the referendum to begin with. >> it's not even clear exactly what they were voting no on, is it? because i think this was not exactly the best vehicle in my view for prime minister renzi to put his future and the future of italy at risk. i think we've had two situations now really where this was self-inflicted wounds. cameron in the uk with the brexit vote. and now the vote on the referendum in italy. let's hope, however, that this does not lead to a major shift away from reform in italy. because if it could, it could be quite serious for italy and the entire eurozone. >> do you believe with the loss
now of hollande to come, renzi, cameron, obama, i mean, there's going to be a whole new slate essentially of global directors. >> that's true, but it's not exactly like hollande was the strongest market reformer in the world, right? i mean, unfortunately he was extremely unpopular. we've had a sweep of change. and i think obviously the sweep of change here in the u.s. has brought new dynamism, a new sense of tax cuts, of deregulation. and frankly europe needs some of that as well. you know, the entire european banking system suffers under negative interest rates and excess regulation. and the italian banking system of course is particularly burdened by nonperforming loans, carl, which are much larger than the average in the eurozone. there needs to be some new energy. there needs to be new investment in europe. but there also needs to be new fundamental economic reform. and we'll have to wait and see who can deliver that. >> is recapitalization now a higher hill to climb now that this referendum's been denied? >> i think temporarily it is.
i mean, right in these very days as you know there's a recapitalization effort underway from monte de pasche, i think the hurdle has been increased but i think overall challenge hasn't changed very much. there needs to be however more flexibility in brussels. and the italian government has been telling brussels this for quite some time. in terms of how the state could step in and help facilitate these recapitalizations. without this, i fear there's going to be very difficult to succeed. >> well, what sort of negotiating or bargaining power does italy now have in brussels, if in fact the financial sector found itself on the ledge again? >> kayla, they should have a good bit because i think brussels and berlin have to realize that they're at the water's edge of a potential fragmentation of the eurozone. i know that sounds dramatic, but frankly with the british exit from the euro, with the greek
problems still boiling, unresolved after over six years of crisis management, and with the eurozone having been in recession more or less, no growth for a decade and a half, i think there needs to be a wakeup call. and if this is not it, i don't know what will be for them to exercise a little more flexibility, to back away sharply from their austerity led programs to give more flexibility for how the government may play a role fdic type role here to support the recapitalization of these banks and to reaffirm the importance of italy in the eurozone. i mean, it was difficult enough a few years ago when some of us were involved in the restructuring of greek debt. imagine the restructuring of italian debt. it's beyond the pale. >> and where does germany fit in all of that? do they need to be less of the older responsible scolding sibling? >> i think germany needs to realize that eventually for the
euro to work either they're going to have to break it down and make it a much smaller eurozone with just a handful of countries, which no one really wants to do. or they're going to have to federalize the fiscal arrangements including their willingness to back the obligations of countries like europe, like italy, like greece including the banking systems here. i'm afraid without this, carl, we're going to be leflt in this continued slow motion fracturing of the eurozone. they're going to have to, i think, fundamentally rethink their approach toward this whole crisis. >> a lot of predictions from a long time ago coming home to roost, that's for sure. >> i'm afraid so. >> charles, good to get your take. thanks so much for coming in. >> pleasure to be with you. when we come back on "squawk on the street," an exclusive interview with trian fund management's nelson peltz, his take on the trump rally and more. plus, we'll be joined exclusively by new york fed
you ready? >> i'm ready. >> good. welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm david faber at the knno labs conference -- yeah, here we are. in washington, d.c. and joined now by special guest nelson peltz, of course the chairman and ceo of trian. and a big participant in no labels as well. >> that's correct. and we're right in the middle of it.
we got a big turnout, david. and let me tell you what no labels is. it's our watch word is bipartisanship. this organization started about five or six years ago because of all of the dysfunction that was in washington. and i think what we're -- our goal is to bring people, reach across the aisle, there has been no penalty in the ballot box for obstructionists, and there's been no reward for problem solvers for people crossing the aisle. >> particularly in congressional races. >> that's correct. >> where a lot of the districts are gerrymandered, i know you guys -- >> we have a solution. as you know there's capital on the left, there's capital on the right, we are now creating capital in the middle. we have a super pac we're raising today $50 million discreet for primaries only. america's been gerrymandered around, so we're not going to
change parties, but we are going to get those people out of the system -- want to solve anything. >> you're going to raise $50 million for the 2018 races. >> exactly. >> you're going to basically support those who are running either against a far right candidate or, i guess, far left. >> exactly right. we tried this summer with two races. highly successful. both guys were losers, they were double digits down. we put our money in and had our technology, we got 13,000 votes to 30,000 votes. and the people who vote in the primary are the real enthusiasts, the real hard core. and they're effecting hundreds of thousands of people. so what we did is we got a bigger turnout, and we got our double digit down guys to knock out an extreme right guy in kansas. he was an incumbent and we got rid of two incumbent-like
candidates in florida who were extreme left. and both these people couldn't even have been elected, they're here, and they're now problem solvers and obstructionists. >> knowing the incoming administration, you've known donald trump and have for years, and i know you've spoken to him since he was elected. >> quite often. >> he tweeted yesterday quite a bit about trade and china in particular. of course you have the call with the president of taiwan a few days ago that seemed to raise some concerns. what are your expectations, particularly as an investor in multinationals like a mondelez, for what the trump administration is going to mean for companies that conduct business all over the world and also here in the states? >> you know, people are confused. there's a difference between a global company and a company that's outsourcing. mondelez is as you know has
criticized occasionally. >> yeah, he came after them for their oreo manufacturing. >> he loves oreos again, i think. and i explained to him that we have a dozen plants across america today making oreos. we have one plant that's been open for about two years in mexico making oreos for mexico and for the united states. if you look at mondelez, 75% of our sales are done outside of america. okay. there's no way that we're not going to have people employed outside america. however, i think that his tax plan if he gets the kind of tax reductions he's talking about, we will wind up having more employment, more companies coming back to the united states whether they have gone to ireland or they're still america and they've got their tax shelters in switzerland or holland or somewhere else. >> but this idea of placing a 35% tariff on manufacturing that
moves abroad that then wants to send -- do you think, a, that's workable? and is it a concern to you? >> well, that's more outsourcing. and that's certainly going to stop ceos who are thinking about doing it give them pause. and i think that's not a bad idea. >> you're a free market guy though, that's not particularly free market, is it? >> i am a free market guy, but i think the scales have been shifted too much. i really do. i am a free market guy. i believe in globalization. i don't believe in tariffs for tariffs. >> you also believe in cost cutting. i mean, one of the keys to the success you've had at trian. >> that's correct. >> in your investments is going into companies and saying, wait a second, you're way too fat. that typically does result in job losses. >> it does. those jobs should never have been put on in the beginning. they should never have been there. okay. there's a suffocating bureaucracy that has created many large companies, and don't forget heretofore the big
companies were unassailable. private equity wasn't getting involved with ge or kraft or mondelez. they were not. so they were left to their own devices, bank of new york, et cetera. those companies are healing themselves today and margins we're thrilled. i mean, mondelez's margins when i got on the board we were coming off an 11% year in '13. and now they're 15 to 16. >> right. >> and irene rosen feld has done amazing work. >> she's cut a lot of costs. of course you're a board member at mondelez. i wonder if you believe in the free market and you as an investor want to see the companies do what's best for shareholders, which typically means getting margins up. >> right. >> if staying in the u.s. is not the right thing for shareholders or your cost of goods is going to be higher as a result of staying in the u.s., don't you want them to move? >> yeah, but david, a lot of those jobs that were cut were not in america. there were lots of jobs cut all through europe, through asia. i mean, we were fat. and they needed to be cut.
and thankfully they're gone. and i think as a result we will grow faster and we will hire the right kind of people, productive people. they're going to help the company move forward. when you cut, you better be growing. >> right. >> it's not just cutting for cutting. it's cutting to get growth and have the ability to hire more people. >> no, i understand that. and there can be a time when there's too much cutting. >> that's correct. >> some people say heinz, where you once of course waged a proxy fight and had board seats, has cut too much. >> some could say that, yeah. >> do you agree? >> well, look, when i was at heinz and bill johnson was running heinz, we had 32 straight quarters of organic sales increases. there isn't a consumer company on the planet who could make that claim for that eight-year period. they're not enjoying that now at heinz. on the other hand, ebitda is growing dramatically. and look, you've got to cut fat. you have to know when you hit muscle and you better not be hitting bone. those are fine lines.
>> they're very fine lines. i wonder, we're mentioning of course heinz, kraft heinz, which is controlled by 3g and warren buffett a big investor there, but do foreign companies, you think, face a tougher time now under a trump administration for doing deals and for example bying u.s. companies and cutting costs dra matdicily? >> well, i'll tell you, foreign companies have issues all that aside because if you're a company in france and you want to lay people off, you got a really hard job in doing that. the government is going to make life so difficult for you to let people go. they have a great deal of difficulty. i think it's going to be -- i don't know when the trump administration talks about foreigners buying u.s. companies and then we still have capitalism. i think the trump rally is celebrating that capitalism is back. >> right. less regulation. of course you mentioned tax reform is certain. >> tax reform, infrastructure, deregulation.
i mean, when i was a kid growing up, you know, my father told me we had the growingest middle class in the world. and he was right. and the middle class was composed of the plumbing supply house and the painting contractor. >> yeah, but we didn't have a global market like we do now. and you have been a huge beneficiary of globalization. >> i agree. but those guys have been regulated out of business. and there's still a guy if you have your plumbing contractor and the paint supply house, you need those guys. and they can't be suffocated with regulation, david. that's the problem. this regulation is so expensive for a small company. and it's suffocating them. so we're hiring more lawyers, and these smaller companies can't have their in-house lawyers. >> right. we mentioned mondelez a couple of times, of course the idea of the multinational with 75% of its sales overseas, a lot of talk though as well that kraft heinz, which we also mentioned, and mondelez, should get together. recreating what was the original
kraft, which you knew well. do you think that deal makes sense? >> look, i'm on the board of mondelez. i hear the rumors that you hear. i know nothing more about it than that. i think mondelez is doing a great job on their own. they've gotten margins from 11 to now going to 17, 18 by '18. that's a 50% increase in margin. look, they're doing a great job. if someone wants to come in and make an offshoot of the company, i can't stop them. that's life. it better be fair. it better be right. and we'll take them on as a board. >> right. well, other companies of course that you also have had continued investments on are dupont, which is in the midst of this deal to merge with dow. >> right. >> a lot of doubts to a certain extent on the regulatory front. not just here but in the eu as well. are you still confident that deal's going to be approved? >> look, i'm positive about it. i'm positive that it's going to close. the eu has three chemical deals
in front of them right now. they've got the bayer/monsanto, chem china -- i think it's going to be yes or no to all three and frankly we're going to have a similar kind of issue, our justice department here is going to have the same kind of problem to say yes and no to either one of them. but dupont on its own whether the deal is approved and i do think it will be, is doing a phenomenal job. ed breen has been a breath of fresh air. they have taken about a billion of costs out of the system already. this is no merger, no combination, just singing from the same song book we sing. >> right. your white paper of course was part of that. nelson, i felt like we talked about trian but positions you've had for a long time, by the way you hold them for a long time. i know that. but i haven't heard anything new
in a while. but i have heard something's coming. >> you know what's nice? we've had a wonderful year this year. >> you guys have had a good year performance wise? >> well, i'm not allowed to talk about performance, but the company's had earnings go up very nicely. and we've done that. and we don't have a new position. but we do have a new position, david. we've started buying about two weeks ago. we of course can't announce it now, we bought quite a bit of stock and we've got quite a bit more to buy. and i hope that we will be able to talk in confidence with management and the board before it comes to you and the press. >> i'll try not to make that happen, of course, as you know. >> i know you will. >> similar to the kind of stake you took in ge, sort of where you've forged this new area where your reputation, you like to think, is something companies want to embrace. so having you amongst shareholders is a benefit. you going along those linelines? >> we haven't approached the company yet, but we approached
them peacefully. we approached them with a thoughtful plan. and we think that they can improve what they're doing today by adapting our plan. hopefully they'll be like minded. and we'll see. we like to be the first one to go to them as opposed to you, but you've got to do your job and i've got to do mine. >> right. perhaps you and i will sit down for another interview about that investment at some time. >> i look forward to it. >> as do i. nelson, thank you very much for today. appreciate it. >> thank you very much for having me. >> we may something to talk about, who knows. >> we definitely will. thank you. >> david, thanks a lot. david faber in washington. when we come back, another exclusive, this time with new york fed president bill dudley. we'll get his take on rates and economic growth in the trump era, so stay with us. the greatest population shift in human history is happening before our eyes. sixty to seventy million people are moving to cities every year. at pgim we help investors see the implications
hour. the death toll from a fire that tore through a california warehouse housing an artist collective now stands at 36. and officials expect to find more victims. known as the ghost ship, that structure went up in flames friday night as people gathered for a dance party. in pakistan, at least 11 people are dead after a massive fire swept through a four-star hotel in karache. guests at that hotel used bed sheets to climb down from windows. proceedings beginning at the uk's highest court as the british government attempts to overturn a ruling that parliament must hold a vote before the government can begin talks to exit the eu. many legal experts expect the government to lose its appeal. and celebrations continued into the night after protesters against the construction of the north dakota pipeline learned of their major victory on sunday. the army corps of engineers denying the final permit for the pipeline's construction. that is the cnbc news update
this hour. i'll send it back downtown to you guys, carl. sue, thank you very much. in the meantime let's get over to our steve liesman who has had a busy morning and now sitting down with a very special guest, steve. >> yes, carl, thanks very much. i am here with new york fed president bill dudley for an exclusive interview. bill, thanks for joining us. >> great to be here. >> it's a good time for you to be here. looking at the screen, 19,257, up 87 points, another record high on the dow. as a regulator, as a policymaker, do you look at these kind of numbers? does it make you nervous? >> i look at financial conditions at large, so dollar, stock market, credit spreads and the bond market. what we've seen post election is we've seen bond yields up, equity market up, dollar firmer. and my judgment is that it seems to be that what people are factoring in is likelihood of more fiscal stimulus and reduced downside risk to the economy. >> it's the 20-year anniversary of irrational exuberance, i
wonder if you're willing to repeat that in terms of where we -- it's almost, what, 1,200 points in a couple weeks, right? that kind of move, does it create concern? >> i don't think i would make a judgment about where the stock market should be precisely. i've always been a little bit more concerned about where the bond market was when bond yields, you know, even a few weeks ago were extraordinarily low relative to the likely path of monetary policy in the years ahead. so i think the correction in the bond market probably a little bit more overdue. >> when you look at what's happened to markets, higher stock market, tighter -- higher yields on interest rates and a stronger dollar. on net, are financial conditions tighter, or are they looser than they were before? >> obviously it depends on how much weight you put on those three factors, but i guess my judgment would be a little bit tighter. i don't think it's a big problem though for us in terms of the federal reserve because you have to ask yourself the question of why are financial conditions tighter. i don't think it's like the
early 2016 where we had a very significant tightening of financial market conditions because of increase in risk aversion. people were more fearful about the economic outlook. that doesn't seem to be the case this time. >> well, what is behind this as far as you can tell? what is motivating the recent change in asset prices? >> the best i can tell, one, the uncertainty around the election is over because we've had the election. so that's probably helpful. number two, there is an expectation that the new administration and congress will work together to come forward with a set of proposals that make fiscal policy more expansive and that's more supportive for growth. so probably a little less worries about downside risk to the economy over the medium term. >> how does that change your outlook for policy, if there is indeed going to be more fiscal policy? does that mean you can do less monetary policy, which i guess translates as raise rates faster? >> well, we'll have to see what we actually get. i mean, at this point all we have an expectation by the markets that fiscal policy is going to turn more stimulative over time. we don't know what the fiscal
policy is, we don't know how big it is and we don't know when it's actually going to occur. it's premature for us to take onboard these market expectations because we just don't know what it is yet. but if fiscal policy were to turn more expansive and that would lend support to economic activity, then probably the federal reserve would probably remove accommodation a little bit more quickly over time. >> i'm sorry, i got to go back to the original question i asked which you said those three things are unknown, how much it's going to be, how big it's going to be, when it's going to be, doesn't it strike you that the market is out over its skis a bit then? >> i think they're making some assumptions, broad directionally. the fiscal policy going to be more expansive, but without any detail. for us i think the detail's important. >> what would be the effect, would you say, of a substantial fiscal stimulus to the economy right now? would it create more inflation? would that be worrisome to you? >> i think it depends on what it is. so let's imagine we had a lot of fiscal spending on
infrastructure. >> uh-huh. >> more spending on infrastructure would actually increase productivity capacity of the economy. it would resolve bottlenecks. think about new york city second set of rail tunnels in from new jersey. that's probably decades overdue. it's finally moving forward with the gateway proposal. so doing things like that that lift the productive capacity, i don't think that's a problem. >> what about the idea that there aren't a whole lot of workers right now and that could lead to higher wages? would that create inflationary concerns through a wage push inflation spiral? >> it remains to be seen. depends a lot on how big the fiscal stimulus is, when it occurs. right now we actually would like to see wages up a little more because we're actually not at -- we haven't yet achieved our inflation objective of 2%. so inflation today if anything is a little bit too low. so having an economy that grows puts more pressure on labor resources in the near-term at least that's a good thing, not a bad thing. >> we've got a jobs report last week that showed the unemployment rate falling by 0.3
down to 4.6% but very little wage pressure. does that tell you that maybe the full employment rate is lower than you thought? >> well, i think we don't know. i mean, i think the general trend over the last year is that we've seen some uptrend in wage compensation inflation, been very volatile month to month. last month 2.8% average hourly earnings year over year, this month 2.5% year over year. so i think a lot of volatility in the monthly numbers. but i think the general trend has been to a bit tighter labor market and a bit of acceleration in labor compensation. nothing that's disturbing. we actually want this to happen. this is part of the mechanism that will drive us back to our 2% inflation objective. >> all of this is by way of asking you have another set of projections due to the fomc in about a week's time. are you inclined to raise your outlook for growth the way the market has been inclined to perhaps factor in more growth? >> i think everyone's got to make their own decision.
i think for me it's a little premature because i don't know what it is, when it is or how much it is. so even if i thought fiscal policy stimulus were probably going to be moving in a more expansive direction, it would be hard to translate that in terms of what does it mean for monetary policy. i would like to see more detail myself. >> given what's happened with rates however, especially on the short end, are you inclined to raise your forecast for how much policy tightening the fed will do next year? >> again, i think it's a little too soon to make strong judgments about 2017. in part because even if we do get a fiscal package, it's going to take time for that fiscal package to actually come together and actually take effect and for that stimulus actually to be felt by the economy. so personally for me this is more over the horizon a little further. >> so you're inclined really to keep your forecast for growth and unemployment and rates pretty much unchanged after the election. >> i mean, i think what's changed in my thinking is that i just feel like the downside risk to the economy are probably reduced. >> let's go to one other
aspect -- well, couple aspects here. there's talk about changing dodd/frank, amending dodd/frank. do you have concern that the regulatory reform that was done since 2008 can potentially be watered down or otherwise be amended in a negative way? >> well, i mean, i think the dodd/frank act isn't perfect. so i think it's completely reasonable to sort of look at the dodd/frank act and say here's what worked, here's what didn't work so well and make changes. but the idea of just taking away the regulatory changes that were made post financial crisis, i think, would be a great mistake. i think the ones to me that are particularly important are raising the capital requirements for banks so more capital, higher quality capital, raising liquidity buffers for banks. stress testing banks in terms of their capital adequacy so they can't do buyback ifs capital is completed in a stress environment. i think those changes are important. we've also made important structural changes to the
economy in terms of making it more financially stable. more money market reform i think has been a good thing reduce risk of people have loans from money market funds which obviously was something that led to a much more rapid and intense financial crisis. >> should i reach something that you didn't mention the volcker rule as one of the things you think is important to making the bank system safer? >> i think the volcker rule does reduce the risk of firms being very aggressive in terms of proprietary trading. but do i think that was the central element of the financial crisis? no. >> one other aspect that's mentioned as a negative by many economists is the potential for trade, restrictions in trade and tariffs. as a fed official you don't necessarily get involved in that. how would you factor in greater protectionism at the border in terms of your economic outlook? >> well, again, premature to speculate on what's going to happen on trade. we could end up with better trade deals and still have pretty open trade. i think that wouldn't be a bad outcome. or we could have not as much
free movement of goods and services, which i think would be a negative outcome for the economy because it would actually probably drive up inflation. and probably over time reduce productivity growth. so i think it really depends on where we end up. >> the dollar is stronger, which is something that can be seen as a negative for the economy. how much concern do you have that what could happen for example higher interest rates from the fed, more stimulus from the fiscal side, could create negative outcomes from a stronger dollar? >> well, if the dollar's firm because people view the u.s.'s economy as having a better outlook, that's certainly a good thing. i think generally currency strength tied to people's perceptions about the health of an economy is a positive element. and rising stronger currency is also consistent with rising living standards. so that's not something i would be particularly concerned about. >> last question, bill. do you as a policymaker, there's been the basic narrative over the last several years is it's been the fed on the front lines in doing all the heavy lifting.
do you welcome the possibility that the fiscal side may come over and help with the economy? >> what i'd like to do is ensure that fiscal policy and monetary policy are well aligned. one thing i would like to see is greater automatic fiscal stabilizer pressures in the case of economic downturn. one of the criticisms of the fed is the fed's been too aggressive in terms of monetary policies, quantitative easing, forward guidance. we had to do that because that was necessary to generate progress towards our goals of maximum sustainable employment and price stability, but it would have been helpful if we had more fiscal support during the economic downturn and making those stabilizers automatic i think would be helpful because they would come in place much more quickly and people could count on them. >> bill dudley, thanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> kayla, new york fed president bill dudley from 30 rock. back to you. >> thanks so much, steve liesman. good stuff. as we head to break take a quick look at where stocks are trading. dow etched all new high at the open. all major averages on best track
for best day in nearly a month. ism services a touch higher than expected 57.2 for november. much more ahead on "squawk on the street." stay with us. why pause a spontaneous moment? cialis for daily use treats ed and the urinary symptoms of bph. tell your doctor about your medicines, and ask if your heart is healthy enough for sex. do not take cialis if you take nitrates for chest pain, or adempas® for pulmonary hypertension, as this may cause an unsafe drop in blood pressure. do not drink alcohol in excess. to avoid long-term injury, get medical help right away for an erection lasting more than four hours. if you have a sudden decrease or loss of hearing or vision, or an allergic reaction, stop taking cialis and get medical help right away. ask your doctor about cialis. ♪ ♪
tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern time on "mad money," jim will sit down for an exclusive interview with united technologies ceo greg hayes. utx of course the parent company of carrier. and he negotiated that deal with president-elect trump to keep some 1,100 jobs in indiana. they'll discuss the deal, the climate of u.s. manufacturing and its future under president-elect trump. meantime, as kayla said before the break, dow's up 89 points. transports now within 2% of an all-time high. that would be the first new high for transports, kayla, in two
years. and would be something to watch for anyone who believes in dow theory having industrials and transports confirm the environment we're in. >> yeah, and pretty remarkable that the markets are able to shrug off the no-vote in italy over the weekend, which had been perceived as a negative for the markets. but clearly in the face of u.s. data coming in stronger than expected, ism nonfactory manufacturing, i mean, it's looking like a really resilient market at this stage. >> indeed. that is a 13-month high for ism services. let's get to jon fortt, see what's coming up on "squawk alley" this morning, jon. >> good morning. we're going to continue to follow donald trump's plans for trade, how much can we trust these tweets? what more might be behind them? also, amazon's got plans for in-store shopping. some technology that could make the checkout process faster. and scott sperling of thomas lee partners is going to join us for insights on deals and the economy and more. all that coming up on "squawk alley."
when bond yields even a few weeks ago were extraordinarily low, relative to the likely path of monetary policy in the years ahead. i think the correction in the bond market would be more overdue. >> definitely made our ears perk up, along with mike, who's here at post nine. what's that mean? >> you know, i think dudley kind of declined a couple of opportunities to raise alarms, right, both about the level of the stock market, about interest rates, where they are right now, and also he declined to sort of accelerate the time table as far as he sees it of how far the fed is going to move next year. i think it fits in with what the market has been assuming, room and time before we have to worry about things in motion becoming a problem. >> when steve asked about the meeting next week, he used the word probably three times in the same sentence. i mean, is this any doubt in our mind at this point? >> certainly no doubt about december, no, but i do think he's being very careful to say, look, unlike the markets, which
is going to try to make a leap in terms of what fiscal policy will be, what growth is going to look like next year, he as a policymaker is going to wait for the details. he said that, too, i need to see the details on trade, on what the infrastructure spending might look like and that to me says the fed is not going to try to jump ahead of this thing. going to let it run for a while and i think that's the working assumption. >> meanwhile, your thesis on squawk this morning are the things working usually lead you out of a not so nice period. >> exactly. old bull market about to turn eight next march, yet it's acting like a young one, early cycle, win streak for the 2000s, which happens at the acceleration phase earlier, auto stocks, mention the transports a minute ago, hotel stocks, bank stocks, so a couple of explanations for that. one we had a stealth bear market. global markets were down that much and you had this refresh and reset. another one is, look, this
thing's been rolling for a while and keeps surfing to new things that seem to be working. it's not cheap. okay, show me the next catalyst, i'll chase that. a year and a half ago we were talking about fang and it made all kinds of sense why you'd go for the big organic growers and not rely on economic growth. the story can change pretty quick. >> maybe the "f" in fang stands for financials. up another 1% today. >> or ford motor. >> exactly. but interesting to hear dudley, or any fed official which billionth dodd/frank, not seem married to it, when steve asked about the volk rule, certain level of protection is needed. >> exactly. i do think that a lot of people came to that conclusion, that proprietary trading as done on wall street was not really a core cause of the financial crisis, but yes, definitely interesting to say, look, i'm not wedded to every single rule change here, but if you're going to fall back on what he fell back on, the higher capital
requirements, higher stress tests, those are still a lot of ropes restraining what banks can do. the question is, have the bank stocks gotten ahead and said, look, it's basically liberation. >> obviously, who likes to have a short leash, making comments about maybe your biggest dreams about deregulation don't come true. >> exactly. the memories are fresh enough as to how bad things got that you don't necessarily want to dial the clock back to before that. >> thanks, mike. >> all right, much more "squawk on the street" ahead. stay with us. including an exclusive interview with the ceo of celgene. that's happening on "squawk alley." stay tuned. mary buys a little lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers.
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let's get a check on oil. morning, jackie. >> good morning to you, kayla. energy stocks certainly on the move on the back of last week's opec meeting and also as a result of the trump trade. just can't really ignore it. remember an energy friendly administration is expected to effect change swiftly, and that is not only been good for crude oil, up almost 20% in a month or so, but the individual names, as well. i want to walk you through some of these investment ideas.
let's start with the etfs, and the reason i start there is because the retail investor that wants to be in energy, they may be buying as a low fee way to get exposure to many different names in the sector. look at the xle, up more than 10% in a month and the oih, the oil services etf up more than 20% in a month. meantime, if you want to drill down more, pardon the pun, big oil names like exxon, chevron, hess, they move the major averages, as you know, and they are also moving higher. the servicers, halliburton, baker hughes, they are outperforming and the refiners, they take the crude oil and turn it into product for usage, vallero, phillips 66, they are also riding the wave. what's interesting is the news out this weekend regarding the dakota access pipeline. as you know, this is a story that i've covered and they said that they will not grant the easement for construction. i think it's a last-ditch effort
for the administration to try to make a stamp on that project, even though the trump administration is expected to overturn it. that shows you that people think donald trump is going to get into office and he is going to start to make the changes that will move this industry. carl? >> all right, jackie, thank you very much. that's a big story. good morning, it is 8:00 a.m. at amazon headquarters in seattle, 11:00 a.m. on wall street, and "squawk alley" is live. good monday