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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  December 6, 2016 5:00am-6:01am EST

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good morning. breaking economic data. a new read on eurozone growth straight ahead. italy's instability today brings more uncertainty as renzi's resignation has been delayed. and the united technologies ceo who went head to head with the president-elect said there was no quid pro quo for carrier. it's tuesday december 6, 2016. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ >> good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> welcome back.
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>> thank you. >> feels like a long week. >> did you miss me? >> i did a little bit. that's it for december now. >> i he was disappointed to miss the latest european -- >> you're here until christmas? >> for the rest of the year, all the way. new zealand, dollar move, i missed all of it. >> that was a bit niche, not for you, i suppose, but a bit under the radar. >> political instability over there as well. >> i'm wilfred frost. let's check in on the markets at this hour. >> u.s. equity futures after another rally yesterday where the dow closed up about 40-something points. >> another rally yesterday after declines last week for the first time in four weeks. >> since the election. we got a bit of a rally going yesterday. s&p near a record, the dow finishing at a fresh record. the gains set to continue this morning. slight gains. dow futures up 10. s&p up 1.
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nasdaq futures are up 8. it was also buoyed by more strong data on the u.s. economy. services number looking pretty good. as for the ten-year treasury note yield this morning, higher yields continue to be the name of the game. there we are again at 2.38. selling of treasuries pushing yields higher driving a lot of this trading action. >> the other things u.s. markets were buoyed by were european markets which were strong. that italian referendum vote went against mateo renzi. france was higher, the ftse 100 also higher. looking at gains once again in europe a bit more muted than yesterday. the likes of italy and spain, the previously named periphery doing well, up over 1%. germany factory ord erters toda 4.9%. the consensus was 0.6%.
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we are expecting a revision of eurozone gdp coming in some of that data pushing markets higher. all in the green across europe. australia's central bank holding key rates steady. hong kong and japan higher. shanghai slightly lower. >> as for the broader market picture, let's show you commodities. oil stronger yesterday. rising again, backing off a bit, potentially profit taking after a giant move higher for oil. wti breaking out of the 50 range. 51.57. brent at 54.90. just about flat this morning. gasoline prices higher. as for the u.s. dollar, pull back yesterday on the back of that strong euro. insane turnaround for the euro after it dropped down to 1.05, thought it would be a weak day, bam, it shot back up. strength continues this morning
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at 1.0765. before you the dollar is stronger against the japanese yen, a signal of the risk taking out there in the markets. strong dollar, weak yen, strong pound hurting the ftse 100, 1.2748. gold on the flip side right now. it was weaker yesterday. it was weaker again today by 0.3%. >> two things i'd say in terms of the renzi reaction, we've been saying yesterday how much muted it was. the euro move shows how there was that volatility. we saw a sharp decline. >> and trump. >> now we get through our political worries straight away. >> it's gone from days to hours to minutes. >> exactly. that happened quickly. it did mean, as you say, the dollar ended weaker. it ended weaker last week. that's a reversal of the post election trend as were equity markets last week. the question is will monday's gains put us back on a gaining track. we hit all-time highs for the dow. last week, we had falls.
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the dollar has been falling. >> it running out of steam? >> exactly. the ten-year treasury node has ma paused at 2.4%. >> there's hope for the ecb on thursday which is widely expected to extend its qe program. if it didn't t would be seen as a disappointment, especially after the italian political mini shock. and the fed next week, there is a baked in chance of a rate hike. the tone and the forecast for next year always moving. to the fallout following that italian referendum. italy's president has asked prime minister mateo renzi to delay he stepping down until parliament passes a budget for 2017, which comes later this month. the president will then call early elections or seek the formation of a caretaker government. >> the corporate impact of the italian referendum, shares of banca monte dei paschi siena slipping as the fate of the
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world's oldest bank hangs in the balance. they are running out of private sector solutions to prop up capital following renzi's resignation. the italian lender will have to prepare for a state ballot. this is important. >> can they do this? >> they can. a state bail-in, but the issue with the bail-in is retail holders get wiped out. there's a lot of political pressure, that's why the italian government tried to avoid it and why so much was resting on this private sector bailout funded by the likes of jpmorgan. all kind of feeling like they were doing their part. >> qatar was going to step in. >> all of these private sector guys doing it, sort of their part. some of the guarantees are now gone. that's putting pressure on it. this could seep into a bit of a financial crisis, the effects of the referendum. there's no immediate political contagion, it's a small bank, monte dei paschi, but we don't want it to get out of hand.
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today i will spend time with leading u.s. bankers at the goldman sachs financial conference. i will try to catch up with jamie dimon off the record and speak to him about this and get a quote. jpmorgan was a key backer of the bailout and now it looks like the bailout won't happen. >> have you been to the headquarters in sienna? it looks like the oldest bank in the world. quite charming, old. >> needs a bit of an update. >> this is your lineup today. >> this is. we have great names on. >> talking to top anchors at the right time. >> the top question is your stock is up x percent, brian moynihan's case, 28%, is trump that good for bank of america. clearly banks front and center right now. >> will be great. switching gears to u.s. politics and the trump transition, the ceo of united technologies spoke out about his
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deal with the president-elect. it was in an interview with jim cramer. the ceo, greg hayes, said his firm he did get a good deal in negotiations to keep those more than 1,000 jobs here in the u.s. here's how it went down. >> i was born at night, but not last night. i also know 10% of our revenue comes from the u.s. government. i know that a better regulatory environment, lower tax rate can eventually help utc over the long run. >> hayes says a trump administration could potentially bring in better regulatory environment and a lower tax rate which could help united technologies in the long run. though that mention about the 10% of revenues comes from the government, department of defense, he's mentioned that, jim followed up and said that didn't come into the conversations, right? you didn't bring that up, trump didn't bring that up, he said no. >> he said no, but he mentioned it, said there was no quid pro quo. >> he also said at one point there was no deal, but then said it was a good deal. >> good deal in terms of it
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comes with lower tax rates. >> we he could have played a much longer clip of that. excellent interview, extraordinary between a ceo and a president-elect. amazing to watch that unfold. >> you wonder if there will be more of that. >> the whole debate around this, i wonder whether it's been framed the wrong way. we keep saying was there a deal? were you threatened? that's the question following the speech he gave after the carrier deal. >> which he did threaten other companies. >> i wonder whether the question should be the other way, there were incentives given as well, particularly from mike pence as governor. maybe we should be thinking about it that way, are more companies going to look at this and say open season, i'm going to pretend i'm going to leave and get tax incentives as well. >> that's the art of the deal. >> i wonder if that's the more pertinent question. >> after that speech and in his twitter account he followed up specifically, 35% tax at the border to take jobs overseas.
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is that enforceable? is that legal? i don't know. will that happen? is that his opening negotiating stance on companies. >> it's quite fun. art of the deal, must read. moving on to fed topics, james bullard is warning that incoming trump administration should not spend as though the economy is in crisis. there's concern among some policy members that overly aggressive fiscal tax and other changes could become inflationary, bullard says trump's policies could boost the u.s. economy if they boost productivity. that's the big debate. will fiscal spending work when we're close to full employment? it has to boost productivity or you get a year or so -- >> the market thinks so. the question is will it spike inflation? which is starting to come up a bit. >> then it depends on what the cause of the inflation is. if it's just a brief fiscal spend as opposed to something
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boosting productivity, not a good thing. productivity is the key. that would mean a lasting boost to growth, which can last throughout the presidency. did you see this one? vice president joe biden leaving the door open for a presidential run in 2020. a small group of reporters asked if he was joking about that comment, and the vice president said he is not committing himself to anything, saying fate has a strange way of intervening, then he could run. biden would be 77 years old on the election day in four years. >> how he would have done if he had run this time? >> that's what people are wondering. that's probably leading him to answer this question. >> he put it down to personal things for not running, and age largely. if he's still debating four years, people will be like why didn't do you it this time? >> i think it was also the democratic party considered it hillary's time. >> we'll see. 77 that would be -- >> a record.
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tim cook says sales of the apple watch hit a record during the first week of the holiday shopping season, the current quarter is set to be the best ever for the device. responding to an e-mail from reuters, the apple ceo says the watch's sell-through rate has reached a new high that measures how many units have been soldiers haves stocks own shelves, but cook is not giving specific sales numbers. his comments follow a report which estimated sales of the apple watch fell 71% in the third quarter. amazon reportedly exploring at least three formats of actual brick-and-mortar grocery stores and could open more than 2,000 locations. the company unveiled its first store yesterday called amazon go. look at the video. it's cool. the store eliminates the checkout line and cash registers. "wall street journal" says am month is expected to own two drive-thru prototype stores in seattle in the coming weeks where customers can pick up their online orders. last month amazon approved plans
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to open large multi-function stores which combine in-store shopping with curbside pickup. this made the top of the fold on "usa today" as the top of the story. grab and go groceries at amazon pilot store. they don't stop to pay on the way out. here's the story. it's cool, futuristic thinking. one question is jobs. that eliminates lots of jobs, and the other is will it work? amazon has their projects, their prime, web services cloud business to fund them. >> the big thing for me is if they push into that bricks and mortar store with an expansion, not the self checkout. you have self checkout in grocery stores? do. >> it's similar. now to the economic agenda at 8:30 a.m., international trade data for october, productivity and costs for
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october. at 10:00, factory orders. when we come back, michael pervis will join us with his take on the market's move so far and whether this valley has more room to run. and later today, complete coverage from the goldman sachs financial services conference. brian moynihan will be there, william rogers. we'll be there all day. manage. since i added futures, i have access to the oil markets and gold markets. okay. i'm plugged into equities- trade confirmed- and i have global access 24/7. meaning i can do what i need to do, then i can focus on what i want to do. visit learnfuturestoday.com to see what adding futures can do for you.
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welcome back. good morning. quick check of futures after the dow went to a fresh record high yesterday. another mini rally going. dow futures up almost 8. s&p up almost 2. the nasdaq up almost 7. joining us now from london to discuss whether there's more room to run, michael purvis chief global strategist from wheedon and company. i know you wrote about the oil rally, but in terms of the stock market rally, what indicators are you looking for to tell you whether it's running out of steam or there's more to go? >> there's a couple factors that come into play. first, you know, every quarter -- every fourth quarter since the great financial crisis has been a strong quarter for u.s. equities. typically the stronger the first
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part of the year is, the stronger the last part of the year is as people are often behind benchmarks and need to polish or sort of polish f portfolios into year-end. particularly given this big surge post trump's election. i'm guessing the market will keep coming into new highs. i wouldn't be surprised to see it get through 22.50 by the end of the year. sentiment has been getting much more bullish but still far from the frothy zones. you have to step back and realize that for the first half of the year there was a great deal of cynicism with regards to equities and bearish positioning there. it takes sometimes a while for that to rebalance itself. >> but, michael, at the same time we've seen that -- the other correlation since the election break down or turn around a bit. the dollar has stopped its rise, and the bond market seems to have settled on the ten-year
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around 2.4%. you don't think that's going to rush into equity markets and follow suit? >> i do. right now there's momentum in the markets now. the trump trades will continue to work for the next four weeks. as you scroll forwards into 2017, think about the market a bit more strategically, it's going to get much more interesting and much more complex. i think there's a good chance as we get into inauguration you may have an almost sell the event type of thing. one thing that's important to understand is that, you know, the market -- the bull rally over the last eight years has been dominated by monetary stimulus, which is or kchestrat by the fed and other central banks, those institutions can act unilaterally. since the whole game shift is about fiscal stimulus, fiscal stimulus is really a joint agreement with congress. and that is not a unilaterally
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driven action. the process by which this excitement about fiscal stimulus, whether it's tax cuts orb spending gets enacted will be much more complicated and nuanced than the 2010 jackson hole qe2 -- >> not a done deal. they need votes. >> it's not a done deal. >> i want to quickly -- only 30 seconds left. i want to ask whether you are telling clients to buy the dip on oil price declines like we're seeing this morning and energy stocks post-opec deal. >> tactically, as oil gets through 52, i think it will, given where crude positioning has been and where -- just where the technicals are. we'll get through. we had that historic meet heing meeting last week he. and energy equities, the high
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beta names will see quick returns, but be very fast of taking profits on those. >> michael, thanks. when we come back, president-elect trump's thank you tour continues today. the latest from the transition team next.
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welcome back. president-elect trump has a jam packed agenda today with
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meetings on tap. tracie potts joins us with the latest. >> reporter: a campaign-style trip at the end of the day. it looks like they are making some decisions inside trump tower, not all of them have been announced yet. there's some new names under consideration, a few that appear to have been scratched off the lis list. >> mad dog mattis. >> reporter: that unofficial announcement of his choice for defense secretary, retired general james mattis followed by the official announcement tonight at president-elect trump's thank you rally. >> it's a great way to get out with the people. that's what the president-elect loves most, getting oxygen from the people. >> reporter: his latest cabinet appointment, dr. ben carson as hud secretary is drawing praise and criticism. a few weeks ago carson said he didn't have the experience to lead a federal department. >> we have decisions today that will be made public in the days
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ahead. >> reporter: west virginia democrat joe manchin is being considered as energy secretary. mitt romney is now back on top in the search for secretary of state. exxonmobil ceo rex tillerson interviews for that job, with several candidates now out of the running including jon huntsman who calls mr. trump's controversial phone call with taiwan a smart move. >> it provides space and leverage in the overall u.s./china relationship. >> reporter: a high-level source tells nbc that contact had been discussed for months. we are less than two weeks away from the electoral college where the results will be officially certified. one electorate is coming forward saying he changed his mind and that he won't vote for donald trump because he thinks trump is unqualified. >> that's my must read later on. tracie potts, thank you. to sports a big performance in the nba for one member of the
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golden state warriors. klay thompson scoring 60 points in a blowout win over indiana. he did it in three quarters. thompson is the 68th player in the nba history he to reach the 60-point mark and the first since kobe bryant's final game last season. four players scored 60 points more than once, wilt chamberlain did that 32 times in his career including a 100-point game. >> you already knew that, didn't you? >> i didn't. >> about wilt chamberlain. >> did not know that. it's a big deal. >> good fun. >> you went to the knicks? >> i he wewent to the knicks. still to come, top stories including amazon trying to revolutionize the grocery business. later today, complete coverage from the goldman sachs financial conference, among the guests he'll speak to, brian
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moynihan, tstay tuned you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
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good morning. know quid pro quo, the ceo just went to -- a lot of rhyming words in this one. that's why it's such a bad one. the ceo who went toe to toe with donald trump about keeping jobs in the u.s. speaks out to cnbc.
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a grocery game changer, amazon looks to revolutionize one of the world's oldest businesses. details coming up. and the top trending headlines including highlights from the victoria secrets fashion show. it's tuesday, december 6, 2016. you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ good morning. welcome back to "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. i'm sara eisen. >> i'm wilfred frost, good morning to you. >> going toe to toe with me. >> that was tough, or do as i just did, butcher it. >> a tough english expression. let's get a check on the global market picture after we got a rally yesterday on wall street that sent the dow to a fresh record. the s&p close to it. we are seeing more strength this morning, though just a little really. those gains have been cut in half over the last half hour.
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dow futures up 5, s&p futures up 1.5%. nasdaq up 6. the early action in europe, strength across the board after that turnaround yesterday post italian referendum result. the dax is flat. france up about 0.3. ftse 100 is under pressure getting hit by a stronger british pound. and italy and spain are higher. italy in particular up 1.3%. as for asia overnight, the nikkei went up, the yen continues to weaken, that's great news for the japanese exporters. in hong kong, stocks finished higher by 0.75%, flat in shanghai. oil prices soared last week some 12%. at the moment we're just seeing us come off those highs. yesterday we were fractionally higher. today down a half percent. let's look at the ten-year
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treasury note. it seems to have settled around 2.4%. less movement than we've seen. you can see that rise since early november tapering off over the last week or so settling around 2.4. as for the dollar, last week it declined, yesterday it declined, particularly because the euro surged late sunday night. the euro had fallen to close to 1.05. by the end of the day up nearly 1.08. >> what sparked the turnaround? hope that the ecb would be more active? >> initially there was fear because the vote went against renzi, then it was one of selling the euro. when people realized how many hurdles there were to still go over before that led to a non-eu friendly government in place in italy, people relaxed. we he got the bad outcome, then we got the realization that the worst case consequence was less
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likely to appear. >> there are still risks on the horizon. it's not clear -- maybe there will be other hurdles and some time and technicalities, but -- >> we don't have an election immediately what we've learned again with this recent example is it's hard for any single party to get a clear majority and then pass the laws they want to pass as renzi discovered. for the five star movement to get in is one hurdle. to get a resounding majority is another. to issue a referendum requires constitutional change requiring a bigger majority. >> it's not clear the italian people want that. according to the latest polls on euro membership, not in favor of leaving. >> i think it's high, but either way the political establishment protects the status quo significantly. that's the issue across all of europe. britain interduesed an in or out
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referendum, none of the other countries are close to doing that. bmps in the short term is the main focus. that could have its own financial crisis. >> the italian bank. >> oil prices, coming up. and it is softer by 0.3%. >> today's economic agenda, 8:30 eastern, international trade data. and for october data on productivity and costs for the third quarter. 10:00 a.m., factory orders. a light day on the earnings front. auto zone reports results before the opening bell. after the close, dave & buste s buster's. the ceo of united technologies speaking out about his firm's recent deal with the president-elect. in an exclusive interview with jim cramer, the ceo of carrier's parent company, greg hayes, said his firm got a good deal in the negotiations to keep more than 1,000 jobs here in the u.s.
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if we can see he a renaissance in manufacturing in the u.s., that's a good deal for the u.s. there's got to be a renaissance. it's going to come from more thoughtful regulation and a more competitive tax rate. those are the things they're focusing on. >> he said there was no deal. that was the key headline from it, saying he realized the government is 10% of their revenues but it wasn't outright the president-elect threatening them. >> he said trump didn't mention that, he didn't mention that, it didn't enter into the negotiations, but clearly it's in the back drop. the big question is other ceos watching this, overseas who have expansion plans, how will they rethink that? will they want to try to get incentives from the government like carrier and utx? or will they be worried they'll be punished with a 35% tariff at the door which is what trump has threatened. >> what's fascinating after the election, the focus is not on
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politicians, it's so healvily o the corporate sector. >> you have a businessman running the country. everything we read into it, do we go back to the play of the automobile. >> jim cramer giving us that interview last night. more stocks to watch, shares of therapeutics md spiking after positive results in a late stage clinical trial. its drug for women going through menopause significantly reduced symptoms of night sweats and hot flashes versus patience treated with placebos. hudson bay is reporting its third straight quarterly loss on higher spending tied to its european expansion. the canadian retailer saw sales rise 29% in the third quarter that missed forecasts hurt by a drop in tourism, particularly the u.s. cooper software reporting a smaller than expected loss in the first quarter since its ipo.
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the cloud softwaremaker also issuing fourth quarter and full-year guidance that tops estimates. some more stocks to watch, shares of actelion are at a record high today on reports that sanofi is exploring a takeover bid for the swiss company. last month johnson & johnson said it was in preliminary talks to buy europe's largest buy he yo tech firm. sanofi has reportedly made its interests known but has not decided whether it will move forward at this stage. mechanics at united airlines have approved a new six-year contract covering 9,000 workers. that deal worth $1.7 billion more in pay and benefits than the current contract. kinder morgan suspected to generate nearly $4.5 billion in cash flow. the pipeline operator confident in its growth outlook helped by he a $13 billion backlog of energy infrastructure expansion projects which should be completed in the next few years. amazon wants to change the
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way you shop for groceries. landon dowdedy has all the details. >> reporter: if amazon succeeds you may never have to stand in line at the grocery store again. the e-commerce giant is exploring three formats of brick-and-mortar grocery stores and could open more than 2,000 locations. the company announcing yesterday a convenience style store called amazon go in an effort to capture a bigger piece of food sales, something crucial to amazon's growth as americans restock their refrigerators. you scan your phone on a kiosk when you walk in. amazon determines what items you take from shelves and charges your account when you leave. it uses the same technology as in self-driving cars, using artificial intel ligence and eliminatiing checkout lines and registers. it could also combine instore
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shopping with curbside pickup. >> the first question is what does this mean for all those jobs at the grocery stores? landon, thank you. the end of jobs, cover of the "new york post," with an amazon robot. scary. >> mark carney in a speech yesterday said 15 15,000 uk jobs could go to robotics. if it's happening in the world, chances are it has a hashtag on twitter. it's like the time person of the year. rio2016 had the highest number of tweets followed by election 2016 and pokemon go was third. >> you know what was fourth? >> no. >> "worldwide exchange." >> that was our first year. we're coming up on our one-year anniversary. >> >> 4th of january or 5th of
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january. we didn't make it into the top ten. >> no. >> next year will be the one. millions of viewers tuned in to watch the victoria secret fashion show last night. it took place in paris for the first time. the show cost nearly $20 million, likely the most expensive in its 2 1-year history. the weekend, bruno mars and lady gaga sharing the stages with models to perform several songs. lady gaga sporting a kis tom made $1 million hat made of crystals. >> a million dollar hat. did you stay up to watch? >> i did not. >> shocked. >> didn't know it was taking place. >> otherwise you would have. when we come back, today's must read stories. as we head to break, check out the trading picture in europe. sort of mixed. the ftse 100 in the uk is underperforming because that stronger pound hurts exporters. stay tuned, you're watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc.
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where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." yesterday the dow closed at an all-time high, an intraday high as well. up about a third of a percent for the day as a whole. just below flat at the moment. s&p up more than that yesterday. 0.6%. the nasdaq was up the best of them, 1%. you can see all of them pretty much flat at the moment. why were we up yesterday? one of the big reasons was a
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rally in europe. europe shrugged off that italian referendum vote. we saw gains of 1.6% for the dax. france up over 1%. so the fact that we're seeing a flat u.s. futures market has something to do with the fact that we're not seeing much gains in europe today. we did have gdp that came out and was pretty positive. we saw german factory orders hit a high since july 2014. but as you can see, not too much gains across europe at the moment. futures off the back of it are flat. >> it is time for today's must reads. the stories standing out in the papers. an opinion piece is getting picked up and has been news worthy it comes from the "new york times," it's by chris supprina texas paramedic but more importantly a texas elector who will be casting his electoral vote on december 19th. originally -- he's republican and supposed to go for donald trump, which techs won trump by
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nine points, he writes today, why i will not cast my electoral vote for donald trump. he writes in part hamilton reminded us that a president cannot be a demagogue. mr. trump urged violence against protesters during his rallies, he speaks of retribution against his critics, he surrounded himself with advisers who claim to be leninists and their thirst for power including darth vader. he goes on to talk about his experience as a firefighter during the september 11th attacks and george bush as a leader and why he this change of heart and why he can not in good conscious vote for donald trump. these electors are coming out, a few against trump, specifically republicans will be the ones to watch. it doesn't look like it will change anything. it's more of a protest. >> what's the precedent of that,
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picking up? highly unlikely. >> there's 538 of them. there's just been a few. less than 10 that are saying they'll vote against. >> that story getting attention. my pick is in the financial times. italy's threat to europe's future is the title. the reaction relatively muted to that vote yesterday, but it goes through the ways in which the vote could lead over a period of time to more issues for italy and europe. it said it would be much harder to organize an eu bailout of italy than to rescue greece. given the size of the economy, the amounts of money involved could be far larger which would probably trigger a political revolt in the german parliament, particularly with parliamentary elections due there next september. there's no immediate fear of contagion after that vote, but
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it illustrates how things could get out of hand. one thing is the bank in italy. fr >> and whether that will have ramifications on germany and france next year? >> whether there is the need for a bailout of italy, and if that happens, the political clash between italy and the rest of europe at a time when elections are coming up. >> wonder whether 2017 will be similar to 2016 with the shocks. >> i'm sure it will. coming up here first, the big ecb meeting on thursday. chris rupkey joins us from the bank of tokyo mitsubishi. and later, throughout the day, full coverage from the goldman sachs financial services conference. we'll have comments from many of them throughout the day, including william rogers of sun trust, brian moynihan of bank of america and kelly king.
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some news out of europe, the chief brexit eu negotiator, michael boniet is holding a press conference right now on preparation for the conduct of negotiations with the uk, when they happen. he says that he actually thinks the negotiations will be shorter than two years. article 50 allows for two-year negotiations. says it is likely they'll be done quicker than that, around 18 months, and that negotiations could be complete by october 2018. says that we're entering unchartered waters on brexit. the first up is the need for the uk to invoke article 50 before any of these negotiations start to come through. >> pound still stronger. >> a bit stronger. >> that's been hurting the ftse 100. another mini rally today on tap following fresh records yesterday despite that italian referendum. joining us now is chris rupkey chief financial economist. good to see you as always.
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that rally in part was shaped by better economic data in the u.s. wonder if trump and the republican policies that wall street is expecting is getting too much credit when there's actually a good story happening in the u.s. economy and corporate america. >> it's still shocking to me when you go back in time, no one likes to go back 25 years, but he's inheriting the best economy of any prior president. clinton came in, it was a year after the recession. they called it a jobless recovery back then. 25 years ago. bush took office, went into a recession two months later. and obama, of course, inherited a recession. but right now the unemployment rate is 4.6%. where was it back in 2006? 4.4. the fed funds rate was 5.25. now it's 0.5. the economy -- we're doing quite well. >> what does all this mean?
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does this mean it's -- it can't be as good or does it mean that he could really super charge that growth? >> i don't think it can be super charged. i don't want to say never because sometimes leaders can -- we just saw this with abe back in 2012. whenever you get cynical and think that world leaders can't do anything to jump start their economies, japan, when he came in, people were optimistic and spending picked up for a time. so i don't want to say never. growth, they've kind of come back a bit. it was going to be 4% doubled gdp growth. now they're saying 3% to 4% which is probably saner. you will not create 25 million jobs in the next ten years. it cannot happen. it's mathematically impossible. not sure who is advising him. >> because we're late cycle, near full employment? >> yes. the unemployment rate is already too low. >> the bull market is not acting its age. it feels like it's been renewed
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and has the hopes of tru infrastructure spending, yield curve. >> it's not enough of a bull stock market for me. i still have kids to put through the college. back in the '90s, s&p 500 went up 20% a year four, five years in a row. we're not there. the stock market feels so good hi here, but the high back in august year to date was 7%. now we're 10.3 for the dow. 7 versus 10.3. feels like we've gone up 20% on trump. it's 3 percentage points from where we were earlier in august. >> what happens as we move into the new year? we expect a rate hike in december. does the dollar continue its march higher? it has paused for breath. >> that's one thing that worries me because some of the doves of janet yellen as fed governors say we're watching the dollar. if we raise rates, maybe we'll
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have to back off if it sets off a dollar rally. i hope the dollar is just adjusting to the fact that, you know, number one maybe there will be more rate hikes than we knew before trump won the ehe election. don't forget, janet yellen was going to be there for another four-year term, now she's not. she's been quite cautious in her leadership of the fed. maybe if she's gone, rates will go up more quickly. >> just looking at this post cover, the end of jobs, they lead with the amazon story. everybody is talking about amazon's plan for brick-and-mortar stores with no checkout counters, no workers essentially. has that started to show up in the data? >> not yet. it's one of those themes out there, luckily for people or economists we probably can't be replaced by robots yet. that -- >> i don't know there are models. >> that's a story that takes place over 30, 40 years. it is gradual.
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right now we created 2 million jobs the last year, they're not stealing jobs yet. >> to be serious, is this not the kind of thing we want? this will boost productivity for the economy but arbitrarily keeping jobs here for the reason of keeping jobs here, surely that's not sustainable. >> i guess i he would have to read it more fully. what boosted productivity was the personal commuter in the late '90s things changed, we got e-mail. everyone got e-mail. i don't know how much a robot will help me do my job. >> let's talk about strange bankers. >> i have a feeling sara wants to replace me he with a robot. >> i would never. ecb this week, fed next week. clearly fiscal policy has taken center stage from monetary policy. do they take that back over the course of the next week or so? >> i guess they he could. just looking at the fed, ecb, kind of out of bullets, near the
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end of what they can do. >> there are a lot of hopes they can expand the qe. >> realistically near the end. the fed were really keyed on not just the rate hike in december, how many rate hikes will we get next year, 2017. if i had to guess, janet yellen can't be pushed, changed from her position after trump. she'll keep with the story that only two rate hikes next year. which would be disappointing to me. we'll keep fighting. i think they need to go 25 basis points four times a year. >> biggest country fear for next year? >> i always sleep well at night, i guess the political risks which i don't always understand from elections. hopefully they won't call a new referendum anywhere in the world. the lesson is after brexit and
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for renzi don't ask the public to vote on anything. >> chris, we'll leave it there. thank you very much. that's it for "worldwide exchange." "squawk box" is coming up next.
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good morning. uncertainty he in italy, prime minister renzi's resignation has been delayed. a grocery game changer. amazon unveiling what they're calling grab and go. those are stores that eliminate checkout lines. we'll show you how it works. and negotiating with donald trump, utx ceo greg hayes describes a conversation he he with the president-elect that led to the carrier plant remaining in indiana instead of moving to mexico. it's tuesday december 6, 2016. "squawk box" begins right now.
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♪ live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with joe kernen and michelle caruso-cabrera. a look at u.s. equity futures this hour, the dow looks like it would open up higher, only marginally higher, two, three points. nasdaq, though, on the other side looking to open higher which is helpful because they struggled along the way. the s&p 500 virtually unchanged. marginally in the green. hang seng is up, nikkei is up. shanghai composite slightly down. european equities, which we all have been focused on, given what's taken place in italy, things looking up this morning. italy loo

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