Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 8, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

5:00 pm
take off. people are chasing. >> the biggest sign of the rotation is jamie diamond will be head of the business roundtable. caterpillar was previously in charge of it. a little sentiment gauge for today. that does it for us. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market overlooking new york city's times square. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," another day, another record. it's been exactly one month since the election. stocks have been on fire. but do not worry, if you missed the rally, three stocks you can still buy right now. plus the casino stocks crapping out today on a report that the chinese government may limit atm withdrawals. we're clever here on "fast." jim cramer spoke to the ceo of mgm moments ago. and citron research's andrew
5:01 pm
left will be here to explain why he think there's a lot further to fall. first, breaking news the trump rally that will not quit. the dow and s&p making fresh records and the dow just 2% away from 20,000. and now tech is joining the party as a major force. sammy giving tech a boost, apple getting in on the action here. tim, what do you say? >> if this is about cycles, if you think about where people were encouraged and able to put money, mega cap, had some value and dividend story. it also had growth. we're waiting for the market to actually go higher. we needed to say financials are going to lead and industrials are going to lead. they're leading. positioning says to me, i think there are people that are just underweight the market, and i do think tech is a place to go. if you're going to be in tech, i think you have to go back to
5:02 pm
places where there is value. chasing the mega valuation names is a bit of a mistake. >> meaning google? >> i think a netflix. i've never liked netflix. i think of things like google which i do like the story. amazon at this point is almost priced to perfection. so yes, i think the semi conductors. the companies that have a moat around their business. things like price line. we're seeing cycles in the way the world is moving around. >> you're talking about the semiconductor index up 35%, nasdaq up 8%. 150 to almost $200 billion of m&a in the semiconductor space. if corporate tax will be lower and companies can repatriate cash, there will be a lot of m&a in tech. microsoft closed their $26 billion deal for linkedin. why won't they make another deal
5:03 pm
that size next year? the last time there was a repatriation in 2004 -- >> how about the fact that business spending, business confidence is up? these people will fresh their enterprise. business will be spending on technology. >> both can happen at the same time, right? >> you say it's going to be an m&a thing. that's no good. >> i think if you're looking at the rally we've had in certain sectors, i question, why is tech now starting to really rally alongside it? i think the valuations within tech you can justify much better than some of the valuations within the financials. >> does that mean the financials have to take a pause? >> i believe you'll see a pause in some of these names that have taken off, these sectors, if you will. i love the financials. they'll be great until the end of the year, especially the regional banks. i do believe we'll have a pullback and you can buy them cheaper. right now tech is the better play. >> fresh money today. >> no question it's in tech.
5:04 pm
we've talked about this since the election. what you were seeing in tech wasn't a story about what's going on in the economy. what you're seeing in the selloff in tech was people reallocating financials. now it's starting to catch up. if you get repatriation, if you get m&a or cycles like tim is talking about, all those things are good for tech at this point. i look at ones that haven't necessarily participated, that aren't at new highs like ibm, that one looks like it's about to break out. >> what's important to keep in mind, if you look at stocks like the facebooks of the world, even the amazons of the world that were used as a source of funds, if you will, investors have not been burned in these stocks, like they have in other sectors. biotech, for example. so the money gravitating back into these names is an easy play. you will see money gravitate back in at the right time. they were used as a source of funds during a period when financials are under way and there needs to be exposure put on there.
5:05 pm
in general people made so much money in those stocks, facebook, amazon, google. >> people haven't been burned in amazon? >> so people, when you look at people, the individual investors, absolutely, people buy them at the wrong time. you look at page one institutional holders of amazon, facebook, google, netflix, any of these stocks, they're up significantly, triple-digit returns. it's a stake that they haven't been burned like they have in biotech. >> the question is, for the next couple of weeks we have this phenomenon where people are not going to want to sell the winners in this, they'll think taxes are lower next year, let me take my profit in 2017. >> or they're losers. >> or they could sell their losers now and get their tax writeoff now. what i'm saying is you have this vacuum happening now, right? but come the first of the year, everybody is saying hold on to the stocks until the inauguration. i'm saying somewhere in the beginning of january, you're
5:06 pm
going to want to lighten up on stocks. >> we had broadcomm report tonight, they put up a good number, the stock is approaching its previous all-time highs. it trades at 12 times next year's expected earnings, double digit sales growth. they have a 2.4% dividend yield, a solid balance sheet. those are the stories you want to take a look at. google is still down 5% since it reported, a pretty decent number. there are some things in that quarter. i think that's really important to focus on too. amazon and facebook are 10% from their all-time highs. there were some issues in their quarters. investors are starting to become more sensitive to valuation and growth. >> facebook is a perfect example. 20 times next year's earnings. that's the lowest multiple it's been since their ipo. you look at their growing earnings, 50, 60%. they can turn it on. the thing about facebook is this. they guided the street down.
5:07 pm
the street was getting too far away. >> how are they gassing earnings, dude? what are you talking about? they have a fake user problem. they have tons of fake problems. 1.7 users is not what it is. there would be a big backlash against this company. >> they're a massive player and will continue to be. they can control their earnings. >> let me tell you this. google, back to your google, they had seven properties that have a billion users. seven. >> that are not monetized. >> that are not monetized yet. and when you keep hearing about -- there was a great story about ruth porat, cutting a lot of fat. this is a company i think you want to swap out of facebook and go into google. any of these other bets pay off and they start to monetize these other properties, they're making huge investments in cloud, ai, machine learning. if there's one thing that works, i mean, one thing, you have this company that's probably the most valuable companies in the world.
5:08 pm
>> i think this fake news thing is an issue. you could see ad dollars move away from facebook into google. >> advertising dollars, we do surveys all the time, deep dives into this stuff. the advertisers want to advertise on facebook, they can't wait. instagram, it's an amazing platform for an advertiser. >> is it, though? >> it absolutely is. >> is a tiny little screen a great platform for an advertiser? >> it is. you look at them and say that's why they are who they are. >> you also have to think about these names in the context of really what are the policies that trump is espousing right now. if you think about protectionism, for a lot of technology, there are issues for them in asia. on the other side of the coin, these are a lot of companies that are effectively ledgering -- in facebook's case it's a global company. >> there are issues also within tpp that will affect tech companies and their ability to expand overseas which investors are not necessarily thinking about right now. >> no, but the good news, first
5:09 pm
of all, we're getting talented people in the tech world who are getting involved in this administration. it's very clear donald trump knows where the strength of this economy is coming from. >> as the trump rally rages on, what are some stocks that are worth the buy? chris barone has three names he's looking at. >> great to be here. semi conductors, a group that really hasn't participated over the last several weeks. one in particular, this is sky works. remember, we had a 50% bear market in sky works over the last two years. over the last 12 months, high or low, high or low, we just held the upward sloping 200-a. we think this goes to 80. i put zylex in that camp as well. house bill med how about media? this is discovery.
5:10 pm
at a consensus, multiyear down trend, starting to turn. broke out through 29 today. we think it goes to 34, about a 20% rally from here. lastly, i want to talk about freeport as well. another stock by our work is still very out of consensus. 21 analysts, only three buys. out of favor, unloved, has put in a nice head and shoulders bottom over the last several months here, got up through that $15 level. so it's semis, media, freeport. that's where we think money is made over the next couple of weeks. >> shall we invite chris over? >> sure. [ applause ] >> we'll bring the chair in, thank you, ashley. chris made the cut. the last few strategists, we didn't invite them over. >> you're lucky. >> how do these three stack up? does the sector overall look okay? >> here is what's compelling,
5:11 pm
the market is getting broader over the last few days, not narrower. we see it in consumer discretionary which has been a laggard over the year. we've seen the cruise lines turn back up. i want to be owning stock that have tail winds at their back. tail winds are consumer sponsorship. consumers are starting to participate, we like that here. >> i like to talk about the materials. freeport, it's a name i own, i bought much lower down. i'm probably somewhere up small. i think there's a lot more going on in copper. and i think if you look at the implied impact on ebitda, it's massive. there's so much momentum in these names already. wouldn't this be a place, i would think a guy like you would say, a little frothy, these things have run a lot. >> not december. tough to fight the calendar this time of year. when you look at the broader sector, it's not just the metals. look at mosaic. this is broader than just
5:12 pm
freepo freeport. and i want to be very mindful of, we're involved in a market now that is broadening out, not getting narrower. i don't want to fight the tape given that circumstance. >> given what's happened over the last day or so, how much more bullish are you? do the charts look that much better to you now versus a weekend or two ago? >> every year has a seminal week. i don't think it was november 8th. i think it was the third week of september when leadership really began to change. you had deutsche bank under pressure, the ceo of wells fargo getting grilled in front of congress, the next thing you know, the leadership began to turn more cyclical. >> the third week of -- >> september. we think it remains cyclical until year end. >> i think you look at a sky works, a lot of these deals were being done at ten times sales and above that.
5:13 pm
coming up, casino stocks getting crushed on a report that the chinese government could limit atm withdrawals in macao. shares of express scripts are tanking. you will not believe how low andrew left sees the stock going. he will join us. thanks to donald trump, a lot of investors will be big winners. how do you protect those gains without paying taxes? we'll break it down. much more "fast money," straight ahead.
5:14 pm
ah, fami holiday party, huh gr? at least with rectv from at&t, you can downloadhen watch ur dvr'ed shows anywhere. that makesou more powerful . i'll tde y the candy caneor theggnog. deal. or aunt jaxie's lack of boundaries. or uncle terry's over-commitment oliday che. pretty good hiding place, gotta say. say that to the nanny cam. i's your tv, take it with you. sanow you can watch your dvr anywhere, no extra st, with directv from at&t. incr...thi it wouldwork, but it. a pad this thin, i didn't... it's called always discrt for bladder leaks, the super... ...absorbent ce turns liliid to gel. i know i'm weang it but no one else wi. always discreet for blder leaks. you got it! what do you thk? if you're going to wish,wise lexus december to remember salesvent get usee your lexus dealer.sh o0 mols for these ter.
5:15 pm
5:16 pm
welcome back to "fast money." casino stocks getting slammed today on reports that macao is preparing to cut the amount of money people can withdraw from atms there by 50%. mgm dropped 13%, wynn dropped 11%. jim muiren spoke to cnbc moments ago. jim joins us now from the "mad money" studio. >> jim muiren did say this could hurt the numbers. he's got a huge casino opening today in national harbor in washington, dc. he said this could have some impact. he wants you to think longer
5:17 pm
term. he wants to see how things will shake out. he says it's for real and will have some damage for the numbers. >> let's put this in context. we have about 20% of our profits in macao. 80% of our profits are here in the united states. that said, let's take a look at mac macao. the chinese government has done a really good job over many years trying to sustain growth for macao. they don't want to see knee-jerk growth or up and down growth. they want to see consistent improvement in tourism and revenue. think the roles the chinese government have put into place are consistent with the kinds of controls they have put into place in the past. >> so he's really just saying, look, this is business as usual, although obviously short term impact. but the stock did get hit today, melissa. >> that's good stuff, jim. there's a rumor too, jim, that you've got a new button, can you confirm that? >> let's say you were to call me and ask, what do i think about
5:18 pm
valeant? or you say, how about goldman sachs? >> trump stock. >> maybe you guys have some, because i would like to put it through the wringer here. >> we need a button like that. so many stocks fall into that category. >> everybody needs it. we used to do this. >> bye-bye buy. >> now we do this. >> now we do this. >> trump stock. >> excellent. thank you, jim. our own jim cramer. of course check out the full interview with the mgm ceo on "mad money." the chinese government has done so many things to these casino stocks, it's almost like whack-a-mo whack-a-mole. once the issue is out there, they come back. there's a bribery crackdown. >> once we saw stabilization in macao revenues. there was a customs cash declaration about two weeks ago.
5:19 pm
there was also something that knocked this market down. this is an opportunity. i' >> in the last few years, it seemed a lot of stuff was anticorruption. >> there was nonsmoking, there was limiting the number of tables, so many different things. >> when you're talking about atms, you're talking about people that hit the atms go to the lower tables. obviously the smoking ban affected that too. like tim said, what mgm was saying, he only gets 20% of his profits from macao. wynn gets 75%. so this one has come down to 90 bucks, it's found some support recently. but it does seem like this is probably not a one off sort of thing. >> but why are they doing this? >> capital controls. >> you're not controlling the little guy at 80 or 100 bucks. >> it's 600 bucks. >> my view is, first of all, if
5:20 pm
this is where we've come, i actually think they're winning the war of the capital account. look at the currency. >> they have the largest outflow of capital ever. >> if you look at what these guys are doing, they're able to clamp down on the corporate sector. the fact of the matter is there should be cash running out of china. >> i would take my cash out of there too, i agree. >> to me, this does not scream of desperation by a country that seems like they're losing all their hard currency dollars. >> $3 trillion is not a hard currency for an economy their size. at this pace they could run out of currency reserves within six months or so because you need a stable amount of occurrence currencies to operate their business. they're trying to stem the flow of that. what impact does that have on u.s. investors? it means bond yields are going higher because the chinese are
5:21 pm
no longer buying. coming up, the trump rally in retail rages on as the consumer picks up steam. the traders tell you which names they think are still a bargain. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, the first in business worldwide. here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> announcer: here is what goldman sachs' stock has done since the election. we'll tell you how you can lock in profits for free, when "fast money" returns. we love knowing what's happening. sohe nest cam security camera looks after things and alerts your phone if something's up. hey, need a glass? no matter what it is. hey, dad. ♪
5:22 pm
mary buys a ttle lamb. one of millions of orders on this company's servers. accessible by thousands of suppliers and employees globally. but with cyber threats on the rise, mary's data could be under attack. with the help of at&t, and security that senses and mitigates cyber threats, their critical data is safer than ever. giving them the agility to be open & secure. because no one knows & like at&t. alzheimer's disease the fi is out there.survive and the alzheimer's association is going to make it happen by funding scientific breakthroughs, advancing public policy, and providing local support to those living with the disease and their caregivers. but we won't get there without you. visit alz.org to joint
5:23 pm
♪ you may be right, i may be crazy ♪ >> billy joel. >> the piano man.
5:24 pm
>> in the '80s, the rest of it was almost unlistenable. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not theay the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management, at charles schwab.
5:25 pm
5:26 pm
welcome back to "fast money." a record day for the markets as the trump rally rages on.
5:27 pm
here's what's coming up in the second half of the show. a record run for goldman sachs since the election. if you're worried about the rally, we have a way to lock in your gains for free. plus a top hedge fund manager and clinton supporter weighs in on whether the market would be at all-time highs had the democratic candidate won the white house. shares of express scripts plunging. >> shares started sinking around 1:00 today after andrew left called out the company in a series of tweets. he said, when donald trump tells express scripts you're fired, heads will roll. he put a $45 target on the stock, which is now around $70. left is seizing on a narrative around pharmacy benefit managers who are responsible for negotiating drug prices on behalf of insurers and
5:28 pm
employers. express scripts has been blamed for rising costs. pgms, said epipen, are responsible for the rise in price, at the heart of the epipen furor. >> i laid out that there are four or five hands that the product touches, and companies that it goes through before it ever gets to that patient at the counter. no one -- everybody should be frustrated. i am hoping that this is an inflection point for this country. our health care is in a crisis. it's no different than the mortgage financial crisis back in 2007. this bubble is going to burst. >> what bubble? >> we reached out to express scripts today. they told us, quote, express scripts is a market force that uniquely puts medicine within reach by driving down the cost of care and improving health outcomes. mel, it's been a debate that's been gaining steam for some
5:29 pm
time, now potentially adding more fuel to the fire. >> meg, thank you. let's get to the man who is behind his call on express scripts, andrew left joins us from los angeles, always great to speak with you. >> hi, nice to be here. >> that heather bresch interview happened over the fall, late summer. why now pbms and express scripts? is it because it's so tough to be a short seller in this market that you've got to go with the stock that has the political winds working against you? >> i mean, it's amazing, when i saw the teaser to this segment, it said, the short sellers' new target. in reality it came out yesterday in the trump interview in "time" magazine, he said he's committed to bringing down drug prices. why would it not say the new administration or the new president's target? i was simply going ahead and connecting some dots. when yesterday i saw the price of many of these pharmaceutical companies drop, express scripts wasn't going anywhere.
5:30 pm
my first thought, was wow, people are not understanding who is behind the high price of drugs, despite the fact the ceo of miylan was saying it right o your show. all i had to do was connect a few dots. you'll see right there it's express scripts who is the person behind the person in that whole channel that's keeping the price of drugs high. >> you're basically saying that express scripts is the specialty pharma company. what downside do you see? >> you were describing pbms, yes, they operate a pbm. they also have a company called united biosource that employs 3500 people. it doesn't represent the insurance companies but represent the pharmaceuticals companies and helps them keep
5:31 pm
the prices of prescriptions artificially high. they represent two sides. it got to the point that the largest customer, anthem, is suing them for around $13 billion. and now you have the southern district of new york looking into the relationships with pharmaceutical companies, as well as massachusetts' attorney general. it's not a short sell. it's their largest customer. it's new york. and it's massachusetts who all say, hold on here, express scripts, are you really doing what is best for your customer, the insurance companies, or are you playing both sides and keeping the price of drugs high? think about it. it's very simple. their unit volumes are going down and their profits are going up. how is that happening? only through the rising pricing of drugs. >> aside from the rising pricing, you're also saying even if rebates get cut in half, you say that will have a dramatic impact on their business and on the stock price?
5:32 pm
>> i have to give credit to the bernstein analyst who has done the best work on this stock. it is about rebates. it is amazing how many different hands a drug has to touch before it actually gets to the user. and what ruins everything about those channel economics is when you have someone like express scripts, who is actually making more money, forget about their gross margins, what percentage of those gross margins are they actually taking the free cash flow? it's more than ample on a percentage basis. it is amazing how profitable they have become by doing this. and it's of rebates. because what is the profitability on a rebate? 100%. don't worry so much about the gross margins. worry about getting more clarity in how drugs are being priced. and it is the opaqueness of the way drugs are priced that benefits specifically express
5:33 pm
scripts. and you haven't just heard that from me. i'm just a short seller or investors comi investor coming on your show and saying it. they've heard it from their biggest customer. >> you're saying specifically when it comes to rebates, if they get cut in half for express scripts, that would be 40% of ebitda and bring their stock price down to 30? >> if it's not rebates, how they have to renegotiate the contracts. i'm not saying, by no means am i saying that this company is a fraud. and by no means am i saying this company is a zero. what i'm saying is that they have to get normalized margins and normalized profits along with everyone else in that whole channel of drugs. once that happens, and that includes -- it could be anywhere from 25 to 50 to 75 to why not just go to a net pricing model and get rid of 100% of the rebates. once that is done, this stock
5:34 pm
could easily contract from where it is right now to 40, $45 a share, which still makes it a profitable company and a valuable company. but there's no reason why express scripts should be making more money on a drug than the actual person who manufacturers the drug. >> at the beginning of the interview i asked -- there are many reasons you're getting on express scripts, but if one of the reasons was a political sort of tailwind to this short. you made it sound like yesterday you're taking a look at what was going on, you're taking a look at the quote donald trump came to "time" magazine when it came to drug pricing and you decided it was a good trade. is that what happened? >> what's happened, over the past year we've singled out companies. valeant, mylan, mallinckrodt. we've singled them out and taken them. wall street has completely done what they had to do to them. what we saw yesterday is the president is saying, the
5:35 pm
president-elect, that the problem is systemic. not one individual player. but he acknowledges, drug pricing all around, okay? that being said, i just simply said a simple thing, and it's wonderful that i can go ahead and communicate with the president-elect via twitter. i just said, hey, @donaldtrump, if you want some low hanging fruit and want to take the prices down, an easy way to start is look at express scripts. if he's concerned about boeing and the amount of profit they're making on the new air force one, when anthem is suing express scripts, they use the word that express scripts was making an obscene profit. obscene. and that from their largest customer. you can only imagine what donald trump would say if he went ahead and had a half hour briefing on express scripts. >> we all know the president-elect is very active on twitter. have you gotten a response to
5:36 pm
him? >> i haven't checked my twitter. i would be flattered. that would be wonderful. >> i want to ask you about a huge purchase this morning. about 5400 december 74 strike put contracts were purchased this morning. that trader made a swift $3 million or so on that. i'm curious, andrew, if you let anybody else know about this trade, or what your interpretation is of that huge trade that happened this morning. >> that trade wasn't me. if someone did that, i mean, you know, people -- there was contract, but that wasn't me. no, you had to ruin my day, i didn't even know that. i thought things were okay, now you tell me someone did that off my work. everything was fine. >> okay. i want to go to some of the other shorts that you have in this space. mallinckrodt, for one, valeant, have those run their course and now it's express script and the pbms? >> for me, as you know, my thoughts on mallinckrodt are
5:37 pm
simple. i will not rest until people realize that acktar is a complete joke. i think express scripts makes anywhere from 3 to $5,000 a vial, a vial. and that's a complete example, on acktar. so express scripts on one hand is supposed to represent the insurance companies who say we're not going to pay for acktar. on the other hand they had united biosource which gets complete reimbursement for it. they're playing both sides. has it run its course? not yet. as i've said many times, valeant at these prices is a complete black box. mylan is actually a fair purchase. if somebody wants to buy something in the pharmaceutical space. it looks like the macro trend are pharma are the new banks and banks are the new pharma. that's more a macro trade that we see happening.
5:38 pm
eventually we'll get a distinction between them. >> andrew, thank you. after the trump victory a lot of people assumed the health care space would emerge relatively unscathed compared to a hillary clinton win. express scripts was certainly one of those stocks. >> but you didn't see the health care stocks respond after. i thought so too, i bought some too, but it didn't work out from the get-go. investors were right to be questioning whether or not these costs are going to come down. whether or not mr. left is correct, it's true that health care will compress. >> i think this is a man that's getting short of stock and basically pouncing on a name that essentially has negative news all over it. profit margins are single digits, 7%. he's looking at the amount of free cash flow they're getting as a percentage of gross margins. the reason why that's a flawed
5:39 pm
metric is because when they bought the pbm business from anthem, anthem signed a bad deal. they just point blank signed a bad deal. they also, don't forget, paid $5 billion up front that's got to be amortized. that metric he's looking at is completely off and it makes it look inflated. ultimately it's not express scripts that's setting the price of drugs. it's the manufacturer. the manufacturer is setting the price of drugs. the contracts they have in place is giving them a slice. i think he's dead wrong here. >> express scripts is higher in the after hours session by 1 3/4 percent. coming up, with 2017 just around the corner, what's a good way to buy protection? we've got the strategy. retail stocks are surging since the election. our traders have some names you can still buy if you missed out. much more "fast money" after this.
5:40 pm
5:41 pm
♪ mapping the oceans. where wexplore. protecting biodiversity. everywhe we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural ga my job? my job at exxonmob? turning algae into biofuels. reducing energy poverty in theeveloping world. making cars go further with less. fueling the global economy. and you thought we just made the gas. ♪ energy lives here.
5:42 pm
welcome back to "fast money." the trump rally is heating up. with 2017 fast approaching, how should you protect your gains? dom chu has more. >> no matter what the outcome is, there's a way to make it work for you. we're talking about tax laws
5:43 pm
harvesting, something many traders and investors are thinking about towards year's end. let's take a look at some of the winners and losers when it comes to etfs. winners, stock funds of course, record highs in the market. the i-shares russell 2,000, the vanguard cap fund, all posted solid gains. you got some gains if you held them a while. certain bond funds and the related like, i-share's national muny fund, interest rate worries hammering a lot of these bond-like instruments. what can you do? reduce your potential tax burden, sell your winners and enough of the losers to offset the capital gains so you pay no taxes on it. you have to wait 30 days to buy back in for those losers. you can take up to 3,000 bucks a year in losses and apply it
5:44 pm
against your salary or ordinary income. many of our viewers are aware of these mechanics, but if you're not, it's worth doing homework and talk to your financial adviser. of course, melissa, the big wild card here, the tax code. personal or corporate is who you're seeing there. what's going to happen in the years coming under a trump presidency. there's already speculation whether ordinary and capital gains rates could be reduced. if that does happen, is it worth booking those profits and paying few taxes later on down the line? still to be seen, melissa. >> dom chu, good to see you, thank you. >> i think if it's a long term capital gain, you have less to gain by hanging in there until next year. iwm, up almost 40% off its lows in january. i think this has gotten a little bit euphoric. i've talked about using this as a short vehicle for different parts of my portfolio.
5:45 pm
frankly it hasn't been a good short. i think small caps are overbought on all of this dream. it doesn't mean it's not a great environment for stocks. but again, long term capital gains are things that actually are not going to -- on a relative basis i don't think you get as much bang next year on a reduced tax environment. ordinary income, absolutely. how high is your conviction? we talked about this a month ago on the show. if you're highly convicted, stay in the stock. >> tim, i got a question for you guys. let's talk about these bond funds, right? if you've got bond funds that spin off ordinary income or some kind of dividend type income along the way, is it still worth looking at whether you want to harvest those losses just to get them off the books and waiting 30 days and buying back in if you want? is that an opportunity? would you look at it that way? >> it depends on how many gains you have. i think you made a good point about washing gains and losses. it comes down to the environment where we think we may be in
5:46 pm
terms of interest rates. bond funds with losses may be bond funds with more losses next year, and you have to think about that as well. >> dom, thanks. >> you got it, guys. >> dan's got a strategy for options. >> let's talk about collaring your stock. when somebody wants to hold on to a position, you may think about buying puts against your stock. but here is an example, you may have some short term very large gains that were unexpected, and you don't want to pay tax on them this year, you think tax rates will be much lower in 2017. you just need to bridge the gap between now and 2017. one way to do that would be a collar. one of the reasons we want to do a collar rather than a put purchase is we want to minimize the amount of protection against those gains. i want to go through a quick little playbook here with a collar. you would do this because you want to be tactical about applying protection and you don't want to sell your stock. and then you're looking for maybe in this case some short term protection here and you
5:47 pm
don't want to pay a whole heck of a lot for it. let's use goldman sachs as an example. because this stock is up 35% in the last month and a half or so, just since the election or it started rising before that, up 75% since both-brexit lows. i swear i'll get the chart. >> get the chart on the screen, dan. >> we can see it, dan. >> this thing is going somewhere very soon. that may be a good area where you want to sell a call against your stock. if you're doing 100 shares of goldman at 240, you could sell one call against that. you could use the premium, that's about $4 right now, and buy one of the january 6th, 230 puts at $4. i have gains. i would have actually participation up until 250. at 250 or higher, my stock would be called away on january 6th
5:48 pm
expiration. between 240 and 230 to the downside, i actually have potential losses. that's about 4%. i could handle that. the stock's up 25% in the last month alone. then i would have protection below that. that is one reason why i would, in this case, i'm looking to take profits next year, i would sell a call, i would buy a put, do it for even money, i would have profit to the upside and defined risk to the downside. >> you didn't like financials anymore at this point? this is what you would do? >> absolutely. i think the financials, again, i said i didn't like them in the short term. there will be a short term pullback, a perfect way to take advantage of that. again, you want to get ready. they are going to continue to move higher, especially the regional banks. >> more options action, check out the full show, tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. ahead, retail stocks are surging. is it too late to get in? we'll explain. plus a top hedge fund. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide.
5:49 pm
♪ guyhey nicole, happening here? this is my new alert system for whenever anything happens in the market. kid's a natural. but thinkorswim already lets you create custom alerts for all the things that are important to you. shhh. alerts on anything at all? not only that, you can act on that opportunity with just one tap right from the alert. wow, i guess we don't need the kid anymore. custom alerts on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
5:50 pm
it's your tv, take it with you. with directv and at&t, stream live tv anywhere, data-free. join directv today starting at $35/month. no extra monthly fees.
5:51 pm
generosity is its oyou can handle being a mom for half an hour. i'm in all the way. is that understood? i don't know what she's up to, but it's not good. can't the world be my noodles and butter? get your mind out of the gutter. mornings are for coffee and contemplation. that was a really profound observation. you got a mean case of the detox blues. don't start a war you know you're going to lose. finally you can now find all of netflix in the same place as all your other entertainment. on xfinity x1. xre jumping more than 1%
5:52 pm
with consumer sentiment on the rise. retailers buy here in this optimistic economy? >> yeah, look, there are selectively some that are absolutely a buy. burlington is a buy. they're up against easy comps. last year we had a very warm winter. we've had a colder winter. cold winters equal top end of the comp range. warm winters mean you're missing. >> they've had a big run and they're up against enormous competition in e-commerce. >> and you shop a lot. >> i'm a shopaholic. >> how is it going? business is slower, slower than last year, no question we're seeing a hit. this is -- >> these are the suede vest stores. >> people are selling the staples. >> retailers have had a very big run. >> they've cleaned up inventories. >> what kind of retailers?
5:53 pm
>> burlington is a perfect example. >> discounters? >> names that are going to benefit from cold weather, from the fact that they've cleaned up their inventories, and they're also benefiting from very easy comps. cold weather equals outsize or better comps, essentially, top in the comp range. >> what does the smart money think about donald trump and the recent rally? seema mody has the latest. >> the resilience is the topic for the hedge fund manager as well. i spoke about this trump-induced rally and asked him, who was a supporter of clinton, whether we would have seen as big a rally in stocks had hillary clinton won. here is what he said. >> i don't think so. i think the market would have gone up a little bit. but i think a lot of it was priced in. most people thought the market,
5:54 pm
and you saw it, that as donald -- it looked like he was going to win, the market was down about 800 points. and i think what calmed the market quite a bit, and you saw it right as he was giving his speech, is things ended up calming, and it looked like, all right, things are going to be hopefully positive, and i think since then, that's been sort of the consensus and that's why the market is up. >> he went on to say, lasry, that the market has seen a bit of a sugar high and there's a lot of excitement right now. and on whether this rally can continue, he seemed more cautiously optimistic. he said this is a big experiment, that there are a lot of positive signs right now but let's wait and his as to how things turn out. going to 2017, he said the rally could potentially continue but he's increasing his bets in energy. one name he mentioned was di
5:55 pm
dinergy. he says, i represent gunlock and the positions he's made in the bond market but he doesn't see the yield headed to 6% but definitely higher. back to you. >> seema mody, thank you, with the latest from hedge fund manager marc lasry. what do you guys thing? if hillary clinton had won, would we be talking about record highs on the dow, the s&p, the transport, the russell, day after day? >> most certainly not. i read a stat yesterday that a third of the dow jones industrial average's rally since november 8th has been jpmorgan and goldman sachs. it's a priority weighted index. the bank stocks would not be acting this way. they might have moved higher, we would have had a rate increase with the near probability as we have right now but they would not have been dragging up an index, in my opinion. technology stocks might have been doing better because they've actually held back since
5:56 pm
then. it's been a lot of rotation. for all intents and purposes, other than small caps, we're only up 5, 6%. >> there's no way you would have gotten this rally if you had a split house congress. the fact that you have people to make structural change in the first six to nine months. >> close to a republican sweep. >> it's an election relief, yes. that would have been either candidate. it's absolutely about tax reform and the structural change that can happen. you would not have had that with clint clinton. one stock that's heating up just in time for the cold winter. more "fast money" just ahead.
5:57 pm
there's a lot of places you never want to see "$7.95." [ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find
5:58 pm
smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. this car is traveling over 200 miles per hour. to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t.
5:59 pm
final trade time. tim seymour. >> burlington, burl, love the stock until the end of the year. >> bk. >> for me its apache, look at natural gas. >> we'll go back to chris barone here. >> so much chris barone today. >> it was really interesting he brought up swks and zylene.
6:00 pm
i think the sky works. >> dan knows a lot. >> sometimes. i'm melissa lee. see you back tomorrow more "fast money." jim's exclusive with the ceo of mgm starts right now. stay tuned. >> my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hey i'm cramer. other people want to make friends i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain you but educate and teach you. call me or tweet me @jimcramer. looking back it now seems clear that the world changed on

25 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on