tv Power Lunch CNBC December 9, 2016 1:00pm-3:01pm EST
do it. there is a lot of value there going forward. >> i don't think there is a lot of value. you look at all of the inflows, year to date, only 20% of that has been unwound since the election. so we're in very early days of this unwind. i think that's going to continue. >> we got to wrap. have a great weekend. >> you too. >> "power lunch" is next. >> "power" starts now. good friday on wall street. scott, thank you. more stock market records falling. dow up 2.5% just this week. and look at how far we have come since election day. the dow has soared in the last 30 days, but, hey, that's the past. here's the thousand dollar question. if you've been avoiding or been afraid of the stock market, can you still make money buying stocks right now? it is a good question. >> i'm melissa lee. forget since election day. check out what happened in the market just since monday. financials up 4%. same goes for technology.
telecom getting more than 3% this week alone. health care leading today. the worst performing sector since monday, up about a half a percent. >> welcome, everybody, the transports keep on trucking in this post election rally. taking a little bit of a pause there, down a quarter of a point today. but could there be a bit of a rough road ahead? buckle up, because "power lunch" begins right now. >> i got that seat belt on, tyler. i'm michelle caruso-cabrera. the trump rally reaching nearly every corner of the market. new highs. it is possible that the three major averages will do something this week that they haven't done all together since 2011. finish higher every single day in a week. this record run is making wall street great again, but is it enough to bring back what we like to call the mom and pop investors, retail investor. bob pisani and dominic chu with
us. >> stocks at new highs. the return of the average investor. retail traders return to the market november, average number of trades done at schwab, e-trade, up notably in november over october. that's a good sign. since 2008, the average americans walked away from the stock market. they don't want anything to do with it. april gallup poll indicated 52% of americans invested in stocks now. that's tied for the lowest on record. 65% invested back in 2007. the vast majority of stocks, owned by the top 10% of households, but what would it take to get more investors intereste eed in the stock mark. sentiment may already be changing, hope you were listening to today's cnbc all america economic survey indicating 40% believe now is a
good time to invest in stocks. that's better than the 30% before the election. also, will real estate be the top choice? it was the top choice, still is for best investment now. but stocks gained the most ground at the expense of gold, real estate and treasuries. stock trending up. that's encouraging. wouldn't it be something if the largest source for demand for stocks in 2017 wasn't just corporations that were buying back stock, but individuals trying to catch up on a decade of indifference and hostility? you can always dream about it. maybe it will be a big story in 2017. back to you. >> bob pisani, thank you. if you're thinking about getting into the market, there are some risks you should know about. in fact, there are still many. dominic chu is here to tell you why the glass is always half empty. >> we want to balance out a lot of the narrative that bob said, because there are reasons to be bullish in this market now, for everything he said there. there are still places in the
market that are a little concerning for some traders and investors. we're going to bring up five of them to give you a sampling, an appetizer plate. let's talk about risks to this rally. first of all, you got the strong dollar. it is still up there, the dollar is -- it is great for our currency. but it is not necessarily good for our manufacturing and exporting sectors. especially multinational companies, art hogan, says if you make things in dollars and try to sell them to weaker currency countries, they're not going to be able to buy as much and the profit reversions back to the u.s., that will be a head wind as well. the market rally itself, we have gone up really far, really quickly. hogan says that you could be taking a little bit of the expectation out of the future gains if things have gone up like this, the rotations have happened in a break neck pace. also, james lou says low vix. volatility for the stock market, low, shows some complacency, around 12, 13 now. over the past two years, back
above 16, that's the average, maybe that's a risk for the market as well. also, macro economic risks. it is center on europe, says james lou. watch what is going to happen over there. italy isn't necessarily done just yet and we still got other elections coming up in 2017. and one more to put your, i guess, brains on in terms of mulling over the interest rate picture, the near certainty of an interest rate hike from the fed is going to come up this month, but rising rates overall, is there a level at which the ten year yield hits? 2.6, 2.75, 3%? where it really does start to hinder economic growth. those are all big questions and a few of the concerns out there, back over to you. >> all key bricks in the wall of worry. thanks so much. based on all you heard from dom and bob, what is the best strategy for your portfolio and this record-breaking rally? is the mom and pop investor going to come back? let's bring in katie nixon. good to have you here.
you were on the show november 18th. the market had rallied strongly as a result of the election. and you said without hesitancy, pile in, there is more to go in this rally. so now here you are again, the rally has been even stronger. do you have as much conviction? >> very much so, michelle. we're still very bullish short-term on the market. believing some of the things that dom mentioned, i would say are positives, momentum is really positive right now with the trend is your friend, we have the interest rate picture changing, but for the right reason. growth is improving. inflation is ticking up. just slightly. in a manageable way. fundamentals are improving. so all the ducks are sort of in a row here for continued rally. >> did you see any evidence of the mom and pop invest erk the retail investor coming back and forth, the financial crisis scared them like crazy, understandably. >> we have seen some come back, but not as much as you might think. >> they're twice shy and justifiably so, having been berned before.
we see them buying the dips this year, we have seen some inflows into equities over the last several weeks, outflows from muni bond funds thatequities. but equities are underowned. the biggest risk right now is missing out on this rally and being underallocate d. >> low volatility enables investors to remain in the market and protection thirty positions. they're effectively still long the market. are you telling your clients to use low vix, low volatility in their favor? >> absolutely. to your point, very behavioral thing. having a low vol market allows investors to without much fear get into positions even at higher levels. so, yes, we're telling clients, don't be worried about the market here, look at the fundamentals, we see, you know, a lot of forward looking assumptions, but inilt into the
market. it is happening in apr ining an that is already improving. >> i hear you say equities are underowned, i hear you say pile on in. but is that really how you should do it? if i have, let's say, $100,000 i want to transition into stocks, from whatever, lump sum or some bond fund money i want to move out, should i put it all in at once or sort of thread it in. >> i think the typical -- >> does it matter? >> it does matter for certain periods in time. right now, in stead of averaging in, we say buy the market now. we have higher confidence in our short-term outlook, frankly, than we do the longer term outlook which may not have changed that much. we talk about low return expectations, we may be in that kind of environment for the longer term, but we're going to have some front end loaded equity returns here. >> is it time to ignore all
standard financial advice? because every commercial on this network has the disclaim, a well diversified portfolio. if you have a well diversified portfolio now, you've not done well. >> you have done pretty well. >> how? gold hasn't done anything, real estate hasn't anything. >> diversified portfolio has been up -- >> i'm talking about going forward, based on your comments to us and tyler in particular. >> we have had a real rip here and u.s. equities and we think that will continue. it doesn't mean, though, that other asset classes won't also participate. we think credit is a pretty good buy here. we see spreads narrowing into this improving economy, even with higher rates. high yield bonds still represent a pretty good deal. >> okay. >> katie, thanks so much. >> thank you. >> a shake-up at the top of coca-cola after eight years. mukhtar kent will step down as of may 1st to be replaced by james quincy.
what is ahead for the company and the stock. let's talk to bill schmitz. great to have you, bill. what about james quincy is optimistic compared to muhtar kent. they're hoping quincy will bring change to coke. >> so i think there is a difference that james is acknowledging the plight that coke now faces. soft drinks, sugar taxes, acknowledging by coca-cola company that consumption has changed. >> what kind of changes aside from making smaller packages and raising prices, which is how u.s. sales turned itself around. >> look, he's completely recapitalizing the business. he's making an after life business, meaning they're signing off for distribution assets or the independent -- so you have a step change. your margins go up significantly and they're really scoring new
options like beverages, like one brand strategy that communicates choice. to your point, not just pricing, but it is selling the cases. the profitability is better, the volume will be lower, that's the reality of the consumption environment and behavioral change we have seen. >> are we going to see the mix away from soda? 70% of sales still comes from soda. how much more aggressively can quincy push that needle? >> it is going to be done both organically and through acquisition. it is going to be really hard to move the needle, coke is such an iconic brand, such great distribution all over the world. so i think it is going to be measured in years, not quarters. but as you see the trends, probably changes a point a year, so 75% now, maybe 74% next year. and, you know, ten years from now maybe it is low to mid-60s. >> let's play a little would you rather. would you rather have coke or pepsi? >> i like them both.
i see pepsi more of a food company and beverage company. they have a great category killer frito business. and they're riding coke's coattails. the market has become unbelievely rational. stop beating each other up and they're trying to extend the profit pool and play to drive cash flow. >> what kind of deal would you like to see coke make, if any? a lot of related stocks are trading high earn the back of the executive change. >> yeah, look, a lot of pretty cool flows in the beverage industry, whey protein is a big trend, maybe dairy. there is not big large companies out there that coke can gobble up. i think the whole period is to buy a bunch of acorns and hope down the road one of them becomes an oak tree. >> got it. bill schmitz, thank you. coke is a top gainer now in the cnbc iq 100 index.
>> the rig counts are out and they are up. and they are up big. for the sixth week in a row, and the 19th of the past 20th week we have seen now rig counts, things that go and drill new oil and gas rigs on land in the united states. baker hughes saying 21 rigs were added last week. >> wow. >> that's a big number. good in blackjack and i guess good in oil if you have a job. each rig hires about 40 people for a couple of weeks while they drill. price of oil ticks up a little bit. we continue to see more drills going to the ground, which means production -- >> prices might -- >> you've done this before. >> i just listened to you. i just listened to you. >> i say the same thing every week. >> what america thinks should be donald trump's number one priority when he takes office next month. the exclusive results from our cnbc all american survey is straight ahead. as we head out, look at this week's biggest winners, under
than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to internet speeds up to 250 mbps. and add phone and tv for only $34.90 more a month. call today. comcast business. built for business. i actually love calling these companies. i love calling these companies and saying, hi, and i get the president of this company, and i say, hi, how are you doing? oh, hello, mr. president-elect, congratulations. yeah, congratulations. by the way, while we're on the
phone, don't leave, please don't leave. please. and we have had great success. you'll be seeing a lot more success. >> so, politically directed capital. i hate it. i do not like the idea of the president calling up company by company by company. it is inefficient. however, the one thing that i would -- if barack obama were doing it, i would be oh, my god. >> we would be howling. >> are you kidding me? this is socialists. the only caveat is he acknowledges the business environment is bad, please don't leave because we're going to change it and make you want to stay. >> if that's the case, they change it to make you want to stay because the corporate tax rate will be lower and more advantages to being here, then that's fantastic. >> i had a drink or ten the other night with some democratic friends of mine and, you know, they -- >> need it right now, right? >> after a couple of cocktails they bring up politics. my buddy who leans liberal is
screaming about trump. let's lay it out so far. trade protectionism, talked about boeing's profit margins, directing to your point, michelle, companies to do certain things. is that a republican? >> they should be thrilled. >> exactly. that was my point. that was my point. kind of early sounding like a protectionist democrat. >> very unorthodox republican. >> and a drink and moved on to sports and much nice of an evening. >> he's unorthodox everything. >> the most amazing thing is he can get a hold of anybody on the phone. he's evidently never called, like, an airline or a credit card company. >> i think he can get anybody he wants on the phone. same rally at that same rally that mr. trump was just show shown speaking at, he was talking about who he likes to have on his team. >> some of the people i put on to negotiate, you've been noticing, some of the most successful people in the world. one newspaper criticized me, why can't they have people of modest
means? because i want people that made a fortune. because now they're negotiating with you. okay. it is no different than a great baseball player or a great golfer. >> and all of this brings you to our next story because what the president-elect has been saying does seem to be gaining some traction with the people. steve liesman is here now, the results of a pretty incredible all america economic survey. >> donald trump read the mood of the american people better than almost anybody out there. first, i want to tell you, remember all that antipathy, that anger before the election, well, a lot of it looks to have gone away. we asked people are you comfortable and ready to support a trump presidency? these are the numbers before the election in yellow. 54% said no. and only 43% said yes. flip them around. 36% saying no, and 56% saying yes. let's look at this breakdown by party. and it is mostly republicans, but not entirely republicans.
you look at the next chart here, and what you see is that 91% are republicans say that, and only 23% of democrats say it. by the way, that's still a good number, one in five democrats saying that, and that's also one in five clinton voters as well by the way. you can see there, 54% of independents say they're comfortable with a trump presidency. now, a critical issue that we were talking about, what are the main priorities for the new president? well, only 13% say negotiating trade deals. what you don't see, individual tax cuts and deregulation don't even make the top numbers here or top priorities here. individual tax cuts pretty low. infrastructure also low. basically, forget all that stuff. only thing that matters to people, 40% say keeping jobs in the u.s. we gave them two shots of this. said what are your top one or two priorities here when it comes to what the priorities of the new president should be. so 40% and when it comes to
republicans, but also every single party, what is the most important thing, keeping jobs in the u.s. everything else is just a detail to the public. michelle. >> i wonder to what degree do some of the other issues feed into the main priority of keeping jobs in the united states. if you improve the tax structure, if you improve trade deals, does it lead to what their ultimate goal is? >> i think they do. perhaps. and if you include business regulation. show you this one other chart here. we asked people about it four years late, br, better or worse. a little less support, a little leg less. they all feed together, but i'm trying to steady myself as i see you on the same side of the unions on this issue of haranguing companies about keeping jobs in america. i know you're a milton friedman trained economist, so i'm -- >> unions want him to harangue
him or don't? >> that's what he's doing now and that's where the unions are and same side there. >> all become a -- big mess. rice and mangos. it is a mess. not typical. >> last mango in paris. so much change coming to tax rates, infrastructure health care and more, we want to make sure you stay ahead of what is likely to be a pretty intense 2017 for law-making. so we're headed to d.c. on monday, will speak with senators mark warner and senator shelby to bring you the latest on whether trump is likely to accomplish all he says he will. coming up, one ugly duckling in today's trade. >> what are you talking about? >> aflac! >> the good, the bad and the ugly when "power lunch" returns. greg? h at least with directv from at&t, you can download then watch your dvr'ed shows anywhere.
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welcome back. airline stocks higher as two major carriers give up guidance. american airlines saying higher average fares per mile boosted its revenue and profit projections for the fourth quarter. this a day after rival united continental also raised its forecast. both stocks up more than 2% so far today. alaska airlines hit a fresh 52 week high earlier in trading. the nyse arca airline index up a percent today. up about 30% year to date.
back over to you. >> time for the good, the bad and the ugly in today's trade. first to the good, shares of broadcom higher by 4.5%, reporting profit and revenue that beat estimates. also announcing the doubling of its quarterly dividend. the bad, aflac is down a percent here. the insurer cut from underperform to market perform. an ugly day for restoration hardware. shares down 17%, reporting profit revenue that beat but the company gave weak current quarter guidance citing promotional activity. this is the same company that earlier in the year said stock market volatility was causing people to not come in the stores and buy large items like sofas. stock market is up, interesting weak guidance. >> what is the excuse now? transportation stocks up nearly 12% since the election. time to buy or time to bail? that's next. and then speaking of transportation, cell phone calls
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hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. here is your cnbc news update for this hour. officials in northern nigeria say at least 30 people have been killed in a suicide bombing. two women disguised as shoppers detonated explosives in a busy market in the town of madagali. no group claimed responsibility. but it is believed that boko haram is responsible. he reportedly handed out envelopes stuffed with more than a thousand dollars to people who lost loved ones in the destruction. more than 100 people were killed in the 6.5 magnitude quake. in the u.s., a milestone for actor kirk douglas. today, the screen legend turns 100. known for his roles in movies like spartacus and 20,000 leagues under the sea, he was born in upstate new york to jewish parents who fled from belarus. he and his wife ann have been
married for more than 60 years. and move over, fake news, someone has come up with fake advertising. toy giant fisher-price got a lot of angry phone calls over this ad for a happy hour play set. showing kids sitting around a par with play beer bottles. it is a fake ad. and a fake toy. doesn't exist. the company is trying to get the word out and track down who is responsible. nightmare. that's the cnbc news update this hour. can you believe? >> i thought that was pretty funny. >> it is totally funny. it is just -- >> like a little bow tie, wiping down the counter. >> we had to blur out their faces because they're minors. kirk douglas is 100. >> not a minor. >> not a minor. no. >> opposite. >> no, no, no. back to you. >> let's take a check on where the markets stand now and what a record-setting week it has been for the three major averages and
the russell 2000 and the transports index. the dow is up more than 1300 points, about 216 points away from dow 20,000. this is the story of the week here, that's a broadening of this rally we have seen. not just financials, since the election financials are up 14% or so. technology finally catching up, up 4% since the election, only up less than 2%. this is an important signal for a lot of the market watchers out there that this thing is broad ing out. >> back to the news of the big leadership change at coca-cola. sara eisen joins us with more. what is the story behind muhtar kent leaving and james quincy taking over? >> it is about as smooth a transition in corporate leadership as you're going to see. quincy has been at coke for the last 20 years and numerous roles including globally, latin america and europe.
the ceo and president for the last year and a half. investor were expecting this. still he faces a number of key challenges in his role when he takes over in may as the ceo of coca-cola. notably, a company, the biggest beverage company in the world, that has seen declining soda volumes for the last ten years across america. pepsi has belt with that by focusing and growing the snacks business or frito lay. coca-cola has stayed true to coke, diet coke, declining even more, and enhanced its stills business. premium waters, teas, and coffees, juices, and other drinks. also, the macro economy is still challenging coca-cola operates in more than 200 countries around the world. muhtar kent entered a new market myanmar in 2012. not the same growth that they have been used to in terms of economics and beverages there. consumers shop differently. they buy staples and beverages
online. this is a company that spent the last few deck ate decades work premium shelf space. you've seen coke actually underperform the broader market since muhtar kent took over on july 1st, 2008. >> you also had a chance to speak with fred smith who made a sp very strongly worded speech. he's always been a big champion of free market principles. you had a chance to speak with him too. i get he's happy with the results of the election. >> he's very excited about some of the policies and having trump in the white house. i will say, when we talked, he certainly projected that strong show of support for the incoming president who he met with after the election. but at the same time, the founder and ceo of fedex repeatedly hammered the point, trade has made america great. he urged president-elect trump to rethink some of those harsh
trade rhetoric that we have heard and that includes tpp. the asia trade deal, with donald trump, promised to withdraw from on day one. listen. >> my recommendation is to take tpp and improve it. got to understand that the chinese are now the second largest economy in the world. they have their own version of tpp called rcep. if we completely abandon tpp, and don't improve it, if we cancel it, rather than improve it, then we're going to see leadership in the trade area and in asia to china. that's a very bad thing in my opinion. >> smith also saying there is room for improvement in nafta. but withdrawing from it completely would be catastrophic. and it does give the u.s. a competitive edge. smith is hoping to influence the administration here.
he has the ear of president-elect trump. and if you're a ceo of a multinational corporation concerned about some of the tweets from trump on china, or what we heard at the rally last night, some of the comments on mexico, you might be reassured by smith's comments who says it starts at home with a more competitive tax rate and while there is room to sort of renegotiate on trade, trade deals are so important for this country on growth. they're very important for fedex as well. they're the life blood of that company. >> does he favor retaining this sort of skeleton of tpp and of nafta rather than doing sort of individual deals with individual countrys? does he like multilateral deals as opposed to bilateral deals. >> yes, he did express his support. he said the most important thing there is that we are making these free trade deals.
did say we need to rethink this approach to tpp, which is regional, and i think the interesting part there was that he warned of the danger of china taking over the u.s. leadership spot, which is something we heard about if the u.s. bails on tpp. he said no question about it, we have been outmaneuvered by some countries. he uses the work mercantilist policies we have to address. he does emphasize that he said 28% of our economy is trade, it was 9% 40 years ago and we had surpl surpluses. so strong voice for trade from someone who has the ear of the president-elect. >> a lot on the line. thank you, sara. >> thanks. chat now more folks about transportation stocks, which have been hitting all time highs with everything else during this rally so so many buys out there with all the big runs. let's find out. jason seidel joining us now.
welcome. you made good calls because the price of most of these names is skyrocketed, not only up but well through your price target. from a group per spective, you only have two options, downgrade or raise the price targets. >> i think when you look at what happened in the marketplace now if you've been positive on transports, you have been right this year, in the last month and a half. some of these names have run 20%, 70% this quarter alone. i think what you're seeing in the market place is these stocks have to go into multiples. wouldn't surprise me to see a pullba pullback. things have gotten better but not up 20% to 30 to 50% better. >> we put out a note this morning highlighting jb hunt as one of our top picks for 2017. the company has a lot of
tailwinds in its individual segments for its businesses. we thought that was the best way to be a winner in 2017. although we have been telling clients today, just take a tempered approach on how you're entering the marketplace. >> still upside there. >> yes. >> i spoke with a friend of mine last night, a trucking broker. flatbed jobs, odd things, huge tractors, pipelines, stuff like that. he's really excited about the infrastructure spending because big trucks, tractors, pipes are going to go on its trucks. is there a huge infrastructure play here, or what else is propelling the group -- this kind of gains? >> right now on the trucking side, the infrastructure really impacts somebody like a land star, a third of the businesses, platform segment. the rest of the business isn't a big platform provider. the infrastructure spend will impact more on the railroad side, steel, aggregate. i'm not looking for 2017 to be a big infrastructure move here. that will come very late in the year and be more of a 2018 play.
>> so what sent these stocks higher? is it the assumption that economic growth is going to quicken and they're going to be carrying more product? as simple as that. >> people are getting a little more excited about the economy. we have seen little bit of move up in the marketplace. so we put up a propriety index looking at the differential between spot market pricing. you look at the class eight numbers, down for most of 2016, though recently up this month. as you look at the 17s, with the eld mandate looming in 2018, i think what you're -- >> what does that mean? >> electronic logging device. if you're a trucker, you have a logging device. some of private guys, let's say they might carry two different sets of logs to show people. one of what they're really
running and the other of what they like to show somebody if they get pulled over. there is hours of service limitations in the trucking -- >> so people don't overdrive? >> exactly. safety reason this law has been passed. by 2018, you're going to have to be in compliance and the majority of people not in compliance are on the smaller private side. >> how do you think about the lowering of corporate taxes. transports are primarily doe midwe domestically oriented. they would benefit the most. is it 1% on taxes that go down? what is it in the trucking industry? >> it could be. it depends how they treat depreciation. we're going to wait and see what the administration says. >> that could be huge. >> it could be a huge thing. the other thing if we start encouraging manufacturing to come back to this country, there is a multiplier effect for
domestic goods transported which also can help out. >> let's underline that. the key component is to change the rate of depreciation. that would be significant is what you're saying? >> yes. >> okay. >> jason, real pleasure. thank you very much. >> let's get the market flash on the market rally with dom chu. >> stocks hitting record high levels, but duluth holdings is hitting lows now so far. duluth shares are down 23% today. the biggest intraday percent loss as a public can company. the retailer, the apparel retailer reported lower than expected third quarter sales hurt by unusually warm weather in september and october. gaming stocks recovering today after getting hit very hard yesterday. they fell after news that china broke in the middle of "power
lunch" yesterday. what do you do with the stocks now? that's ahead. first to rick santelli for today's bond report. >> if you want a growth move, look at the markets today. stocks up, dollar up, interest rates up. and the long rate is up the most. two year notes are up virtually unchanged on the day and the week. the long end on the week, tens and 30s close to double digit gains. one week of 10s. right now, should we close here at 246, fresh look back to june of 15 since we closed at this level. if we look towards 30 years on one week, they are already as they sit at the highest level since july of 15, but taking out a close. the dollar index, this is the one to watch, this is right now live real time, look at that one week chart, look where we are on the far right. i'll look up at my board, around 101.70. the current high close for the dollar index is the 23rd of
november. right at 101.70. should you take this out, you probably recycle those who have not had faith in this trade and had more fuel to a potential test of 102 and beyond. don't touch that channel. "power lunch" will return after a short break. [engine revving] ♪ ♪ is it a force of nature? or a sales event? the season of audi sales event is here. audi will cover your first month's lease payment on select models during the season of audi sales event.
[ beep ] but you'll be glad to see it here. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be. welcome back to "power lunch." home building stocks reversing course. the s&p 500 home builders etf ticker is snapping its five-day winning streak. it is now down about a percent or so in trading today. about 5% this week. big components of it, dr horton, lenner, pultegroup, around 2% lower on the day. home building trade a focus. >> casino stocks are recovering today after some big losses
yesterday. authorities in the gambling powerhouse of macau announced they will not be restricting daily withdrawals from casino atms. only restricting withdrawals on transactions. let's bring in david katz. big mgm opening going on there in d.c. >> there was last night. a terrific property on the -- in the national harbor market on the potomac. and quite frankly we're expecting them to do quite nicely .we raised our numbers this morning after walking through the opening last night. >> expansion still within the casino industry. bottom line, yes, the stocks have recovered or but they have not regained the losses they saw yesterday. to me, the investor response is that they are still concerned about what is happening in macau. >> i think you have to look at
it two ways. short-term and then the long-term. in the short-term, we always have known that the regulatory lack of transparency out of this market can give us surprises like what we had yesterday. quite frankly, i was with a broad swath of the team last night at the opening. i think my impression is they were as surprised as anyone about this article coming out. and that, you know, this change was occurring. not concerned. so i think the way you look at the short-term is you just deal with the volatility, you breathe into the discomfort, and keep your eye on the long-termer term where we're comfortable that this market is in some stage of recovery. and while that lineup may not be straight, it is headed upward after, you know, the downturn that began in late 2014. >> like a yoga instructor, breathe into the discomfort. >> talked to jim cramer last night and said, i don't want to minimize the significance, it will reduce some gaming revenue.
they're looking forward to opening up their new property. for mgm, smaller percentage. but for a name like wynn or impal it is a much bigger percent. what do you think the impact would be on other players more leveraged? >> i think as a result of the news we learned yesterday, i think the impact as we understand it is very minimal. if you look at how the stocks behave, they sold off dramatically and have bounced back only a little bit. i think what we should mention is that this change is expected to go into effect over this weekend. i think most investors are wisely waiting to see what we can learn in the coming days and weeks about that -- what that impact will be. we don't know yet. >> i'm wondering, back to -- we haven't done a lot on the air yet on cnbc. we're back to monitoring outflows from china.
you as a gaming analyst, you're supposed to be locking at how much they're making per hand, what the revenue is per casino, how much are you starting to have to really pay attention to what is going on with capital flows in china and how they impact your sector. are you there yet? >> we are. we have been there for quite some time. when the revenues started to decline in late 2014, a result of government pressure on the vip junket business. the underpinnings of that vip junket business have always been about the movement of money into and out of chinese currency. and the clamp down that began in late 2014 was expressly about that. so that is an area that we're keenly focused on. as far as the atm event that happened yesterday, it appears
to be -- that it is a lower segment of the market, a smaller volume segment of the market than should really matter for all of the companies and frankly the ones that you just mentioned. >> all right, david, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you. >> on deck, opportunity just for you, street talk including a biotech name that one analyst says should rise 80%. 80%. it is on their best ideas list. that name coming up right after the break.
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released in february. will differentiate it from other pharmas. also repatriation, that could boost deals. >> large part of it, to be fair, allergan, large part of the business is elected. completely elected. not like the life saving drug needed you got to cut costs like i want to not move my face. second stock, autodesk, upgraded to buy. raises the target. the analyst sesz thaid they got they needed. they see a clear path. they note the design software market finally, their word, moving to the cloud, more cost effective. it is a clear weapon for autodesk. they help make computered aed design, high software. 15% upside it right now. >> 3-d printing play.
would you ever get botox? >> who says i haven't? >> third stock, micron technology, big gainer this week, up 8%, with the pullback in today's session. pacific crest raising estimates to re flekt persiste reflect memory strength. fair value, 19 and 25 bucks. >> on fast money, you talk about amd? >> yes, we have. >> holy -- 140% in 12 months. a micron side play. finally, smallish cap call of the day, smallish, not that small, pharmaceuticals. one of the best ideas for next year, over the next 12 to 18 months, they expect two new products, and advance other in the key trials.
the pipeline quote had a productive year and the best is yet to come. top and bottom line should grow nicely. cowan, 150 target on -- 80% up. >> stock has done a whole lot of nothing unless you're trading it every day. three minutes away from the 2:00 p.m. lift. stocks have been moving much higher about that time for the last two trading sessions. will wall street make it three? those new glasses? they are. do i look smarter? yeah, a little. you're making money now, are you investing? well, i've been doing some research. let me introduce you to our broker. how much does he charge? i don't know. okay. uh, do you get your fees back if you're not happy? (dad laughs) wow, you're laughing. that's not the way the world works. well, the world's changing. are you asking enough questions about the way your wealth is managed? wealth management,
welcome. the second hour of "power lunch." glad you could be with us. i'm tyler mathisen. melissa, michelle, brian are here as well. we haven't all been together on the same day in a long time. you've been getting up very early. >> yes. >> two hours until the closing bell. folks, strap in. we have seen really, really big moves in the markets during this hour. this 2:00 p.m. hour over the past couple of trading days. the point at which the market has gone on to confirm the earlier day moves. the dow, the s&p 500, nasdaq,
russell 2000, small cap index, dow transports, all setting records. dow on track in fact for a fifth straight week of gains. this week's gains the best since the election day. >> check out what is moving now. biogen soaring 4%. experimental alzheimer's drug showing promise in the study. much more on that big story ahead. veail resorts up. still water mining being taken over for $2.2 billion. miner of platinum and palladium. stocks rallying, we have seen a move higher right about now. bob pisani joins us from the nyse floor and what we have seen is the algos kick in. >> yes, some other things going on. this happened, what melissa was saying three times this week on tuesday, wednesday and thursday. the markets lifting right in the middle of the day.
what's going on? pretty simple. nobody really wants to buy at the top. when active traders see the market isn't going down in the middle of the day, the psychology is, hey, the all clear is being sounded, folks, bye, stocks have a good chance of lifting, going into the close. that's the psychology. you get these meltups going on. it helps that there is more trading going on. we have been talking about the retail trader coming back, schwab, e-trade, all reported significantly higher daily trading activity right after the election. overall trading volumes, they're 10 to 15% higher in november compared to october. we're getting another reason for that midday meltup. sentiment improving as well. all america survey, more investors believe now is a good time to invest in stocks. stocks are trending up as an investment. haven't seen that in a long time. by the way, look at what is going on. we're getting this continuing rotation we keep talking about. the market leadership has been
banks, industrials, materials. pharmaceutical stocks, tough week, they're big today. consumer staples, they're doing well. many technology stocks have lagged. they're doing well. utilities, the rotation in the market keeps things going even when the market leadership falls back a little bit. back to you. >> all right, bob, thank you very much. the markets overall, also reaching record highs. yesterday we asked carl icahn about what he thought about the market rally. >> ahead of itself somewhat. but obviously, you know, very good news, you know. it is morning now on wall street, or actually not so much wall street, but across the country. and it may be a little too exuberant. i do think that all the things donald is doing point to a much, much better economy. >> so is it a little too exuberant, even if the economy gets better?
and if not, where can you find some value? let's before bring in eric and byrnes. uncle carl said i wish i had bought more stock but maybe it has gone too far. what is your take on the overall market? >> we're in the camp with carl icahn. global phenomenon, multiasset perspective, you have japan that's up higher than the u.s., almost double the return and since the eve of the election, europe is up higher than the u.s. since the election. and u.s. is up 5.5%. good news across the board. the dollar is also the story. we're in the buy the dip, sell the rally kind of mode right now and this is the rally.
are you selling? w what kind of stocks are you selling? >> the trades that we like is we have been long europe and we have been long japan in the stock market and we have been long dollar. that's that's been the place to be. we think that will keep being a winner for us. in the u.s., we trim back, u.s. stocks are expensive. strong dollar is going to create some earnings head winds and market will factor that in. >> let me turn to you, you have interesting sector choices and individual stock choices. why shouldn't i just put money into an index fund if i think the market will go higher? why isn't that the most efficient way to do it. >> one thing we have seen since the election is a reduction in correlations between stocks and between sectors. which, for one, makes it a bit more of a stock picker's market than we have seen in recent
years. we expect to see a continuation into cyclical, into val ue stocks. you've seen gdp growth forecast brought upward, which benefits the cyclicals which depend on economic growth. with the increasing rises in interest rates. >> so you think that the individual stock picker can add value here. add some val you fue for us. >> veal one name we have been g at is honeywell. industrial conglomerate, making everything from cockpit systems to smart thermostats, heating and cooling and it is a conglomerate. a lot of them trade 18, 19 earnings. they just last month raise the dividend by 12%. they have been buying back a lot
of shares. they have proven themselves to be very shareholder friendly and clean balance sheet. >> i see you also have gen dine on your list. is that and honeywell in part on play on the idea that defense spending may go up? >> absolutely. they are both val you stocks, based on the current valuations. now you get general dynamics for a 20% discount to a lot of the transportation and defense peers. but absolutely, a lot of the talk we saw before the election, even since then, has implied a little bit of a reduction emphasis on a lot of the global institutions like nato, like the united nations, which means there could be a bull market in defense spending. you already have seen that around the world. >> buying anything, eric, before i let you go, with the proceeds from the sales? >> in the u.s., we like financials and make sure we continue to contribute to our european and japanese overweights.
>> eric and byrnes, thank you, both, have a great weekend. >> we just talked about -- thank you. we talked about some of the sectors in names leading the way in this rally. like goldman sachs, up 25% over the past month. dom chu joins now with a look under the radar rally. >> this is the time of year we talk about retail an consumer spending, we also talk about the outperforms in financials. you mention the big banks and we talked about them, but here are some names that have really been rallying over the course of the past month, that aren't exactly jpmorgan or goldman sachs or bank of america. look at the companies that help enable people to spend money. capital one financial is up, huge just since the election. capital one, issuer of credit cards, savings accounts, that sort of thing. check out what is happening with discover financial. a card issuer, also a lender to consumers if they want to consolidate gets.
shares up 35%. you see on the right-hand side, a huge move higher in the last month. last one is syncrhrony financial. those stocks, among those, that performed the best on the financial side. and they don't necessarily have to be those big money center baf banks. back over to you. >> i didn't know sleepy's had a card. >> how many mattresses can you buy? >> i don't know. financials among the best performing sectors since the election. xlf is up 13%. joining us now is andrew jeffrey. what is interesting is dom outlined the credit card issuers which caught a bit after the election, a lot of things a trump administration can do, spur spending in the united
states. why have visa and mastercard, why do they sit out the rally. they're down since the time of the election. >> they are. i think the primary reason they're down is that a lot of financial or bank investors were hiding out in visa and mastercard during a period of concerns about global growth and low interest rates. and now seeing a rotation back into traditional spread lenders which we think is going to be relatively short lived from a relative performance standpoint. >> effectively being used as an atm to put capitol to other parts of the financial sector. >> i think that's largely what is happening. the beneficiaries in my space have been those that have the greatest exposure to potentially lower u.s. tax rates. and visa and mastercard, they do so much business overseas, they don't have that benefit. >> how do you start thinking about what a trump administration could do for visa and mastercard. payment processors as opposed to
credit card issuers? what benefits are you seeing and how does the changing regulatory landscape impact them if at all. >> i'm not sure there say huge benefit from lower regulations, necessarily. but certainly when we look at our spatce, visa and mastercard are among the two cyclical stock we cover. you expect visa and mastercard to be two of the biggest beneficiaries of the trends. >> let's say, if we're thinking about gdp growth, up to 4%, let's say 3% for argument sake, what could that mean to visa and mastercard? >> i think that means that we at least to -- they're growing 10% instead of 8.
and you she earnings growth grow even more. >> andrew, we'll leave it there. thanks so much for your time. >> thank you. >> andrew jeffrey of sun trust. to seema mody at the new york stock exchange with a big mover in the energy space. >> shares of dynegy are popping today. last night at the conference hedge fund titan marc lasry told me their debt was something his fund was buying as a distressed opportunity. he said he sees more distressed opportunities in the energy sector going into 2017 as the companies continue to restructure. he plans to increase the fund's exposure going forward. despite the rebound, he pointed out many companies are still locked in at $100. their debt does look attractive. dynegy shares moving higher, independent power producer, shares up now about 8% on the day. coming up, how much money
you have and how long you wept to school could determine how you shop for the holidays. plus, the s&p 500 is up more than 5% since election day. we'll look at the biggest winner and losers next. miles per hour.0 to win, every millisecond matters. both on the track and thousands of miles away. with the help of at&t, red bull racing can share critical information about every inch of the car from virtually anywhere. brakes are getting warm. confirmed, daniel you need to cool your brakes. understood, brake bias back 2 clicks. giving them the agility to have speed & precision. because no one knows & like at&t. ♪balance transferot to othat's my game♪ bank you never heard of, that's my name♪ haa! thank you. uh, next. watch me make your interest rate... disappear. there's gotta be a better way to find the right card. whatever kind you're searching for, creditcards.com
ways wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can't keep up. you're stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. online or in store, how do you do your holiday shopping. it may depend on your education level and income level. the cnbc all america economics
survey. >> -- internet, not everyone shops equally it turns out. cnbc's all america economics survey finds the digital divide between demographic groups is more evident this holiday season than what we have seen in the past. especially when it comes to education. so a quarter of all americans with a high school education or less say they do a lot or fair amount of shopping online. that's about double the rate that we saw from that group four years ago. but 64% of americans with a college education or more, 2.5 time as many as the less educated americans shop online a lot or fair amount. that means there is a 39-point gap and the gap has grown by five points from when we asked this question four years ago. 22% of americans do a lot or fair amount of shopping online. that's up. but just six points in four years. 58% of americans whose incomes are $75,000 or more, the blue
lines here, say they do a lot or fair amount of shopping online. up 18 points in four year, the gap between those two income groups is 36 points, up from 24 points four years ago. >> interesting stuff. >> money, just plain money. if the phrase in court was that they shopped this way frequently or a lot or whatever she said, it could be that the more highly educated people have more spendable capital. >> less time. >> they may have less time, they have more money. >> may have an -- >> the people who don't have the money may just shop less. >> steve liesman is here. >> what is the great -- >> it is the mobile device. everything courtney said, 100% true. it would be worse without these things. >> the wealthy people have better access to smartphones, and -- >> no, it is orbit way around. it is the other way around.
look at this chart here, which i brought to make my point here. when i look -- you wouldn't come to a gunfight with a knife, right? when we look at the percent of online shoppers using mobile device, more nonwhites than whites, more people with less than a high school education and post grads, the reason is because the wealthier folks are more likely to be using their deskt desktops, other points, but to the extent that poor and less educated people can get on the internet, it is because they use mobile device. >> less likely to have a desktop. >> you may have people making the choice, i don't need the home internet service. i need unlimited data plan. to the extent i can get online, do it through my mobile phone. there is one interesting quandary here. you would think prices are cheaper online. and that's one of the reasons we do that. it is interesting to me that more people of lower income groups do not have that access
to that or use that where prices are cheaper. so i'm just -- courtney is not convinced the prices are cheaper. >> i'm not. not all prices are lower on amazon. prime members tend to be those that have higher incomes as well, are coastal, more white collar professionals. >> and the service is dependable. i know how long it is going to take, how easy it is to do a return. >> is it more expensive do you think? >> the wealthy have access to that convenience and -- >> there is not free shipping on every website. during the holidays, it equalizes more. most of the year you have to spend $99 on macy's.com. maybe that's $6 or $7 breaks the difference for you. >> bottom line me here, people with lower educational attainments and lower incomes shop less online than those with
higher incomes. >> right. >> but they are more inclined to use mobile devices when they do shop online. >> that's right. >> i think there is one point i think is important, which courtney brought out, the gap is not closing. the gap is widening. we're leaving behind those other groups. >> right. >> you think about the world in general, poor countries overall, all the economic activity is on the phone, it is not on the desk. >> not on the desktop. those are more expensive devices. >> thanks, guys. >> good listening. >> no, i was just getting -- >> a little fuzzy. >> it is friday. >> coming up, a scory that would scare samuel l. jackson. phones on a plane. imagine trying to sleep and the person next to you is having a loud phone conversation. it could happen.
stock exchange under ath. this could set the stage for a revitalized ipo market in 2017. >> our very own dom chu, thank you very much. the transportation department -- we were just going over some phrases we don't love, that we use too much. >> we'll provide you with a list. we should do that on the "power lunch" website. >> cybermonday, will not say it, i just said it, though. >> you said it ten times in the past three minutes. >> the transportation department, see how i respond to you, the transportation department is considering allowing phone calls on flights for some people this could be good. a chance to do some business or chat with your kids while traveling. for many more, they probably can't imagine being stuck on a plane.
airlines have the option of whether they want to allow it on their planes or whether, i presume, they would put people who want to use phones in a certain section of the plane. >> wow. >> in one area. >> like smoking back in the day. you were in 32 b and the guy in front of you in 31 a was chain smoking but you were not -- that worked. >> that worked, right? i can't imagine a worse idea. >> you know who loves this idea? good year. >> because why? >> so many people like many are going to never fly again, and go through tires all the time. >> can i tell you a secret, i've already done it. >> you've -- >> yes, in the early days of the internet access, on planes, i mean, the things like skype, they hadn't figured out how to stop skype and tango, and you could make internet calls from the plane and i've done it, i've
done video -- >> can't you enable your phone to do internet calling? >> yes, you can. yes. exactly. >> don't have a cell signal. on the plane now, you might be able to do it. >> i haven't tried it lately. but i believe they figured out ways to stop it. >> you're naughty. >> why are they trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist? nobody wants this. just text. >> it is not as efficient. i would whisper. >> nor efficient for everyone else. would you want this? >> most people behave badly. they talk louder. >> i'm going to d.c. sunday. >> on the train? >> no, i'm driving. you know why? amtrak, the quiet car fills up, you're stuck -- there is the dude that is, like, i understand if you're, like, i'll meet you outside in five minuteminutes.
you wouldn't pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. hi, everybody. i'm sue herera. as the senate debates a resolution next week, some lawmakers including mitch mcconnell offered tributes to the late senator and astronaut john glenn. >> we were saddened yesterday to learn of the passing of one of most iconic figures of the 20th century, john glenn. lived a full life, one that touched many. and that won't soon be forgotten. >> overseas, jubilant south koreans celebrating with cheers and dances after lawmakers impeached the embattled president park geun-hye.
her duties will be assumed by the prime minister on an interim basis. the cougars promoted major applewhite to top spot. he worked under the departing head coach tim herman for two seasons. you're up to date. michelle, back to you. >> thank you. we're 90 minutes from the closing bell in a re good week for the stock market. the dow up every single day about 500 points total. right now, at this moment, the oil market closing for the day. jackie deangelis, not as good a week. >> we closed over 51 today. we saw 1% move today, down about half a percent on the week. for the month -- here is how the math has to look. we have a 1.2 million barrel cut from opec. we need to see a 600,000 barrel cut from russia. that's according to el badri.
he said that will be significant enough to move this market to the upside. third point, the saudis, they're cutting customer orders, prepping the implementation of their cut. what is the biggest risk? u.s. shale taking advantage of the prices and pumping more oil. we saw 21 rigs added online last week and that's the problem. if the rig counts keep going up, u.s. shale producers could be the ones to push it back down. president-elect trump has already announced plans to cut taxes during his presidency. what about your 2016 tax bill in this record rally? what steps should you take to cut your bill right now? our next guest says there are three key things every person should do right now. number one, remember your favorite charities, number two, boost retirement savings plan, and number three, lock in disappointing investments.
don't you love -- when they give everything away. that's a big counsel, very important. >> great people. >> great people on that counsel. i'm guessing when i used to work in the personal finance magazine business that the tried and true year end tax advice was pull deductions into the current year and postpone income into the next year. if rates go down next year, this must be the single best strategy you can do right now. >> well, this is particularly this year. great year. if you think rates are going down, you want to think about charitable gifting and think about taking advantage of donor advice funds. this has been a huge, huge year for this. record year.
you can take -- if you give maybe $10,000 a year to charity, if you think that over the next four years you're going to give $10,000 away, put $40,000 this year into a donor advised fund, get the full $40,000 deduction this year. >> but deposit the money this year. >> is that something i set up with my attorney or tax or funds out in on the shelf? >> set it up with something on the shelf. >> one of the big phone companies. >> type in donor advised fund. sometimes they have it through charities or religious affiliations. >> put the money in there. >> put the money in there and all you do is you get the full tax deduction this year. when you want to make a donation, go online, look up the name of the charity and --
>> caps limits? >> not at all. >> a million? >> yep. the president-elect wants to do way with the estate tax. should i postpone dying? >> yes. >> if you can postpone it by 15 or 20 days, that would be a good idea. >> hang in there until of after the first of the year where they'll probably grandfather -- >> i think estate -- i don't know. not wherever, no. probably not a good idea. look at your portfolio. you want to look for opportunities to take losses. everybody has been talking about the rally, the rally, the rally. people think, i don't have any losses. but what about european stocks, emerging markets, bonds. losses all over the place. the audience wants to know you can be looking for losses.
>> wait until after -- >> wait until next year. >> take your gains next year. realize income next year. >> yes, though i think the general tax -- we have been hearing more about the possibility of general tax rates going down. we'll have to see about capital gains. and then the third one that i wanted to bring up was about making sure you maximize your corporate 401(k) plans so you can put an $18,000 if you're under 50 even 24,000 if you're over 50, doing an i.r.a. of 5500. a lot of people don't look at their pay stubs and say, oh, i only put in 16,000 and you can actually go to hr and make sure you shoved rest of it. >> and maximize a 529 if you haven't already. thanks, great to be with you. >> happy new year. >> postponing dying. >> happy hanukkah. >> all of them.
general blanket congratulations. >> big news in the battle against alzheimer's. promising data for a drug. shares up 5% earlier. they have pulled back a touch here. meg tirrell joins us now. this seems shocking given what eli lilly told us about their version of the drug. >> a lot going on. there is a conference going on in san diego, clinical trials. that's where we're getting all of this data. before thanksgiving, a lot of the wind came out of the sails because lilly's drug failed in a phase three study and the company wouldn't take it forward. that has a lot of implications for biogen's drug. it targets the same target, the proceed teen that builds up in the brain but in a different way. what people were-liking for is how did that lilly drug fail and what did that say about the implicati implications.
it looked like the signals were going in the right direction for a drug that worked in this way. you see biogen and lilly trading back to before the data came which caused the big drop. there were more trials, more data presented. the key question is always, as it is for every drug, the balance of safety and efficacy, the side effect seen with biogen's drugs, seen with other drugs for alzheimer's before, that causes brain swelling. the big question is what is the right dose of the drug. midday today, as we started to see biogen stock pull back, a new potential side effect emerged. one patient in a trial that had a seizure on the drug. analysts and investors were trying to parse out what skauzed that right now. not clear. >> up 4% and then -- >> big turn around. >> it shows how little we know
about treating alzheimer's. these trials won't read out for another few years. we're bound to keep speculating for a while. we're going to get data from merck open a similar approach, but not an identical one. >> currently biogen has the most promising in terms of closest to being approved, closest to finalizing. >> merck's is a little further along. but they have a different approach. it is a small molecule pill that is taken to try to presevent th buildup of plaque. roche has programs interesting as well. >> you that the hardest words on this network without any question. >> she's also an opera singer. opera? >> a cappella.
>> she has a -- she's got enunciation. >> she went to wellesley. >> that's right. >> biography. >> nobody enunciates like you do. most of the stock market rallied since the election, gold stocks, gold left behind. gold down 15%. is now the time to buy or sell? trading nation is next. police chase involving a stolen semitruck. we'll show you how this ended.
stay confident for over 75 years. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. a man in a stolen semitruck leads police on a chase through the streets of spokane. this according to police. the man stole the truck, and was seen unloading it when the police showed up he then took off in the semi. look at him. he knows how to drive it. there he is. got up to 70 miles an hour with the police right behind him. looks like a walmart truck. he crashed into a fence en a residential street, abandoned the truck and tried to run. you'll see this on cops later on. was caught, arrested and charged
with several different crimes including possession of a stolen vehicle. that sounds like one he should be charged with. i wonder if alcohol was involved in this. >> i don't know. >> just sort of looks that way. >> what kind of loot was he hauling? >> i don't know. there he is. >> can never outrun radio. >> no. >> gold. >> what? ♪ >> trying to listen to the song and associate the two. gold falling for the fifth straight week. is the metal set for a turn around? let's ask the trading nation. let's focus on the stock side first. that's what you do for a living, sir. gold miners, incredibkrebcredib beginning, underperformed lately. what is your opinion? >> i would have a small portion in gold miners or the etfgld. we believe that gold over the course of the next several years will perhaps perform in the lines of 2% to 4%. we have reduced our exposure to
gold. we're roughly with a balance portfolio, about 5% allocation at this point in time. we think it is a good diversifier in a portfolio that has equities as well as fixed income. we're not looking for a tremendous rally within gold over the next several years. >> okay, phil your opinion on gold and/or gold miners? >> look at gold, down 9% in the last 30 days. it is up 8% on the year. performed quite well just on average. but if you look at the fundamentals, it should continue to face a little more along liquidation, coming in the next week, we have the fed most likely going to raise interest rates. we also have a lot of the infrastructure spending and tax cuts set by the policies with trump. so people are quite optimistic on the economy as a general. two things could occur here. we'll see the dollar index continue to break out to the upside on that rising interest rate hike. if that scenario occurs, gold prices will most likely come
under pressure. what you need to do is have an inverse currency to the dollar in order to hedge things out. if you see the dollar index start to pull back, your gold position would start to rally. you got to have a strategy coming in the next week, into that interest rate hike that we'll most likely see. >> don't forget about the fed next week. for more trading nation, go it our website, tradingnation.cnbc.com. shares of apple up only 3% in the past month. that's good. but means it is underperforming the overall market. one analyst who says the holiday season could be a rough one for apple. "power lunch" will be right back. now the latest from tradingnation.cnbc.com and a word from our sponsor. >> some traders believe they need to be smarter than the market to make money. the challenges that the trend is reality, it represents a
a new report out from jpmorgan showing there could be trouble ahead for apple. let's bring in rod hall with jpmorgan, big ideas for 2017. good to have you here. >> yeah, thanks for having me. >> there is a company that >> so there is a company that takes photographs of parking lots at malls. what does this have to do with apple? why would it be bad? >> the company is called orbital insight. they use satellite data and machine learning to count cars in parking lots. the report you are referring to is one that is a joint effort that we have engaged in to look at consumer behavior right now. and what we see is about a 4% decline in those parked cars and parking lots year over year and that data got just a little bit worse after the election. we thought it might rebound so right now if you put that in contrast with apple and our expectations there, apple gets
about 30% of the iphone unit volume from the u.s. in the fourth quarter. it's possible that consumer trend will recover and get better as the year wears on here, but if it were to be weak that would negatively affect ap. we have been trying to innovate in various ways. we have been focussed on big data analytics. >> at the same time doesn't that assume that people actually physically drive the car to a parking lot at a mall or store to buy a product? if i'm going to buy an apple product i would probably go online to do it. >> that is definitely one of the things. weather is another thing. we are not saying this is the only data point. we think it is very interesting that that activity level is down year over year. e-commerce is taking away from that traffic and weather has been warm on the eastern part of the country through this time of the year. that tends to keep people away from shopping centers, as well.
>> i would have thought the opposite. what are your best ideas for 2017? >> our top pick right now is sienna, an optical company focussed on providing big pipes that companies use to deliver video to people's lap tops. that trend is growing a lot. we think ciena will benefit from it. that is a big pick for us. another thing that is more of a trump trade for us but also a bet orbroadband infrastructure. we have a couple of companies all that would benefit from increased broadband infrastructure sending in the united states which, by the way, i just remind people watching is woefully inadequate compared to other developed countries. a lot of opportunity to increase that capability in the u.s. >> anything you would stay away from?
>> we see interest rates rising. that is not great for high yielding stocks. one of those in our coverage is cisco. we think it would be negative for cisco and be a little more cautious on that one. >> just about to look up their yield. what about f 5 networks? i would be careful about that because it is in the middle of a product cycle right now which ought to be good for them. we think there is a lot of enterprise optimism which may translate into spending on companies that f 5 provide. >> and the yield was? >> 3.47%. >> concern about interest rates. thanks so much. >> thank you. dominic chu standing by with a market flash. >> what is happening right now is the shares of flower foods are spiking on news at least partially that the company has reached an agreement to settle a
class action lawsuit regarding whether truck drivers are employees or independent contractors. this had been an overhang for a bit. the resolution of this and this settlement has at least for the time being caused shares to spike on heavy volume relatively speaking. >> thank you very much. when we come back-check please. this is my retirement. retiring retired tires. and i never get tired of it. are you entirely prepared to retire? plan your never tiring retiring retired tires retirement with e*trade. i'm in vests and as a vested investor in vests i invest with e*trade, where investors can investigate and invest in vests... or not in vests. sign up at etrade.com and get up to six hundred dollars.
my check please dow 20,000. we are getting so close. i'm going to find my 10,000 hat and cross it out and write 20,000 on top. >> once again the market is strengthening here in the 2:00 hour. i thought one interesting thing today answered a question of mine in a way i didn't think she would when i asked whether you would put all your money in the market here if you had $100,000 to put to work or whether you would do it by dollar cost averaging in. she said go for it right now. >> all of it. that is counter intuitive to me. >> dangerous. >> it depends what your outlook is. >> putting all your money into anything at one time doesn't matter what it is. >> locks you into that price.
>> shows conviction. >> going to buy beanie babies because the trade will never end. >> she was specifying short-term gains. >> i think what is very interesting this past week not only did we set a number of records but take a look among sectors. financials leading the way but this is a pivotal week when taking a look at trump rally because of catch up trade in technology. technology finecally catching up. it is key for the rally, the sustainability of the rally to continue to broad it. started to see signs of that this week and perhaps next week we will see some more. that's going to be key here. >> nbc news saying former new york mayor giuliani is no longer under consideration to be u.s. secretary of state under donald trump. nbc sources saying that rudy
giuliani no longer on the list to head the state department. >> obviously, he has been not chosen to be head of justice department. there are still some jobs in department of homeland security but director of national intelligence has not been filled. i have seen his name on that particular list. >> a lot of decisions are being made in new york. we will be down in d.c. on monday and see if we can shake the tree a little bit. there is only about four of us left. >> we haven't been considered for these open posts. >> let's end on a light note. my check please is the completely unscientific twitter poll, phone on a plane yes or no. 91% say no. 9% have said yes. >> i would have voted yes.
>> proud of it. >> awful idea. >> a couple people say they do it on wifi that sometimes is strong enough. >> that is apparently what we were talking about using wifi. >> show you how to do that later. >> you are so bad. >> thanks for watching power lunch. "closing bell" starts right now. . welcome to "closing bell" i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> tgif i'm bill griffith. another record setting day for stocks on wall street. if the dow, the s&p and nasdaq close higher today it will be the first time in five years that all three have closed higher five consecutive days in a trading week. we will bring you some under the radar names that could be