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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  December 19, 2016 5:00pm-6:01pm EST

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>> but the core message, it's if you think functioning well. reasons why they may need to let it go longer. >> and young people are quite enthusiastic about job prospects too. >> has changed a lot from the '07, '08, '09 era. that does it for us on "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. >> i guess the taxicabs give it away. i'm brian in for melissa. welcome. your traders tonight, brian kelly, karen finerman, david seaburg and guy adami. the strategists who said to buy stocks now says the party might be over. why tony dwyer says stocks are losing their mojo. and could be trouble for the rally and your money. a top technician is here to explain. and later, check out shares of biogen falling after a new ceo. don't worry, that ceo will join us later in the show for an
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exclusive interview. before we goat to that, though, dow 20,000. sure looked like a sure thing a couple days ago. the past few sessions, stocks have fallen. david seaburg should we dump the donald trump bump? >> we talked about this several times over the past -- >> every day. >> the financials in general, big move up, i get it. will they pull back, a little bit? expect it. in general, the trajectory is higher. we're in a situation right now where you have to make sure that earnings are keeping up with expectations. and we're not going to find that out for some time. i'm telling u the trade is still on here. i think we could have a pull back -- >> so you think stocks are stalled, until, what, alcoa releases the first earnings? >> no. i think the momentum is in place until we start to see clarity from earnings. and i'm saying, we'll see slight pullbacks and maybe stall out. ultimately, brian, i think the financials and a lot of these
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trump-infused stocks will continue to move. >> i agree with david. if this was the stall, that's a pretty pathetic stall. not a lot hauled. some things were up. oil was up a little bit. the vix is -- was down, what, 4% today? >> i think it's just -- we were in such a drag race. 30 days, we gained so much. could go up 30 points on the dow. we're not falling. but it looks like that huge momentum. >> the momentum has slowed. it's not terrible. a 1 or % pullback. if i knew for sure a 1 or 2 pullback was coming i probably wouldn't trade out. it's like guy always says, they don't give you this long to sell. >> the -- the saying is, yeah, the market doesn't give you a long time to buy the lows or in this case, sell the highs. and we're within 10 s&p handles of an all-time high, 100 points or so of dow 20,000. the fact we flat lined around here indicates to me this is
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probably another leg higher. the one thing that does concern me, the vix karen mentioned. every time we trade below, it's typically a point where the market takes a pause and a selloff. maybe this is a new paradigm and maybe as we head into january, we will see vix not stop at 12, but actually go to single digits. >> i'm not sure this is a new paradigm. people weren't positioned correctly, beam brnt sure trump would sweep the house. i think this is your fear and agreed, just like anything else. tomorrow morning, though, we'll get a little bit of a clue whether or not the economy really is as strong as the stock market is saying. we have darden restaurant coming out with earnings. staples already called for a restaurant recession, leading to a u.s. recession in 2017. darden restaurants could be that bellwether tomorrow morning. >> fred stick market. >> i don't think it's just fear and agreed. it was a complete repositioning.
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people are still underweight. so a complete underweighting, and a lot of these trump infused stocks and that continues for some time. there is no reason to take your foot off the accelerator until the narrative changes. the narrative hasn't changed. listen to this. interestingly enough, the man who -- one of the men who bet against subprime mortgages just before the financial collapse in 2008 now says he's bullish. here's what steve iceman said on "squawk box." >> what i think is going to happen, the financial system is going to be at least partially deregulated. i think over the next couple years there will be more leverage. and this will be a golden age of investing in financial stocks. >> so you could be very long right now financial stocks. >> as long as i could be. >> and is that what you are? >> and that is what i am. >> i mean, we all know that the regulatory burden is probably going to be relieved somewhat from the banks. higher rates a little bit do help the interest margin.
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they help bank stocks. but when i hear fraezs like golden age, that's -- you've got to pause a little bit, do you not? >> golden age scares me, as well. karen can speak to valuations on banks far more eloquently than i can. in 2007, goldman sachs was trading somewhere at twro and a half times price to tangible book. goldman sachs is around 1.3 times in a world where people are not waiting to see what happens and ahead of the curve, who is to say that goldman at 1.8 times tangible book is inviable and that gets goldman to a stock. i understand what he's saying now. whether or not that should happen is an entirely different conversation. but the narcotic is betting that everything mr. trump will put in place will be extraordinary -- >> if you only get something, that could be a disappointment. >> i mean, there is a lot of engines driving the financial growth. you touched them. there is the rate rise. so that's very good. there is the economy rising,
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that's good. there is tax -- less corporate taxes. that's also very good. there is the sentiment -- if we get it, the sentiment that we are in a new era for banks and they shouldn't get the big discounts they have been getting to the market. so that's four legs to stand on. >> we've got to move on. i just want to say i was in d.c. sun monday and monday. trust me, just because the gop sweep, there is it still a lot of conflicting opinions and the senate democrats still matter. the republicans have 54. you've got to get six or seven democrats to come on board about repealing or reducing dodd/frank. that's not a sure thing. did you buy anything today? >> i added to my position on tlt, long the bond market. this is kind of a shorter-term counter term trade. a tremendous selloff in the bond market. basically, everybody and his brother is short the bond market, that's when bk likes to go to the other side of the boat. i think over the next couple weeks you have an opportunity to
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stay long, tlt. >> shouldn't refer to himself in the third person. >> bs approved. >> g.a.? >> quickly, to dovetail what brian is saying, if you look at the low in 2014 of the tlt, magically, it bottomed out exactly where we bottomed out over the last couple weeks. so for a trade, i'm with bk on the lt thing. i think rates are going back down to what we saw over the summer. can you see the tlt which closed at 118.5, up to 125? >> tlt, by the way, the biggest and most liquid bond-based. >> when i talk about apple on the show, 116 bucks. i think now is time to really push the ack successful rater and get long apple. the refresh cycle is going to occur. next year primed for it. get ready, have a bigger position. this stock could be approaching easily start to move toward the 150 level, if all things work out. >> made a lot of people happy. your next guest called the
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post election rally, but now says the party may be over. or at least winding down. tony dwyer chief equity strategist, how dare you be not wildly bullish. >> i figured my friend bk has a special tingle next to me. >> are you bearish or are you simply less bullish? >> i'm -- you've got to have an action in this game. we all kind of pontificate. if i were an aggressive trader, i would lower exposure. if i was very offensive, like we wanted to be very offensive going into the election. you can't be more offensive when you're already offensive. so we're just taking the foot off the gas. i happen to agree with bk. i think that bond market is due for a rally. i think the dollar is due for some weakness and i think there is just a reversion coming. and the trade that was put on -- >> let me ask directly. would you be actively selling stocks? >> yeah, if you're way overweight and overexposed as an aggressive -- >> way overweight? >> 120% long is a hedge fund. i advise institutional clients.
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>> don't do that at home, america, by the way. >> so i would lower my exposure. and if you were long only, i would neutralize my portfolio, so that when you do get a pullback -- brian, it's funny. corrections are only natural, normal and healthy, until you get one. so all of a sudden, people are saying, oh, down 1 or 2%, i'm buying it. let's see what happens when you're down a couple percent and there appears to be a fundamental reason. that's when i want to be more aggressive. because in until you invert the yield curve, history has proven and proven and proven, you never, ever, ever want to sell a correction when you're not in a recession environment after an inversion of the yield curve. so it's not whether you're a buyer, it's where you're more aggressive buyer. and you can't do that if you're already extra long. >> let me push back or ask this question, right? we've had this tremendous rally. listen, first of all, i respect you as a strategist to come on, who somebody who was bullish to come on and say, hey, you know
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what, now is time to pull back. not a lot of people do that. i would like to listen to what you see. i don't always agree with it. my question is this. we have had a massive rally in stocks. one indicator that you look at is the credit markets. >> correct. >> while credit spreads, hyg, has rallied and we have had lower yields there, it is not confirmed the rally in the s&p. does that divergence concern you? >> it's nowhere near what it was last year. i made a mistake. last year going into the end effort year, i thought the high yield market would catch up. equities making a new high and corporate debt grinding higher and i didn't bay attention to the fact there was no improvement in credit. there has been a massive improvement in credit this year. and when i was talking to karen offset, agency spreads to treasuries, high-yield investment spreads to treasury, they're getting better, not worse. it's hard to make a case in a levered economy when credit appears to be okay when it's upticking in yield. the next question, what level of
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yield brings in the problem? there is no absolute level. we make up numbers all of the time. the level is when the long end stops going up in yield and the fed is always behind the curve because the data has lagged and the short end trades through the long end and you end up with a negative criteria environment. we're still at least probably 12, 18 months away -- whancht would change your view to be more bullish, more optimistic? >> i would love to say we called the trump rally, we called the global economic improvement rally before the election, brian. making the markets great again, it worked. but that wasn't our call. what it was, what would make me bullish, you work off some of the extreme overbouts. my buddy at sendment trader, he came out with a great stat. it's buying climax. 62 stocks in the s&p 500 saw buying climax. you make a 52-week high and close the week below the prior week. so you had a spike and then it dropped. when it's been above 60 stocks,
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one month out, you had a median loss, and your odds were having it down market. it's those kind of statistics. it's not that things are falling apart. this has been a terrific rally, 8%. here's a great stat. the 14 weeks statistic indicator, my holy grail for tactical stuff in the market, there is only twice that it's gone from below 20 to above 80 in four weeks. both in the 1960s. both saw a year-out rally, but a pause first. time to take a break. >> love it. 50-year historical reference. tony dwyer, thank you. >> thank you, brian. all right, guys. so let's trade it. it being tony's viewpoint. >> tony -- good. >> i agree. look, we're in a position right now where you could see a pullback in other than overheated sectors. even those overheated sectors for the long-term investor, like the financials, this is almost the tenth year of them being down and out. look at technology and how long it took for them to rebound
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after the devastation we saw in the internet bubble. i look at it and say we're coming out of something really interesting right now. a long-term investor shouldn't question even those levels. >> first, happy holidays to all of the viewers. if you look at a long-term relative performance chart of the financials, you're out of your mind if you're selling that chart. that's coming out of a big base and just getting going. sorry to cut in again. >> tony, thank you very much. on deck, one of this year's hottest trades may be poised to cool off. if it does, may spell trouble for you, even if you're not invested this group. i'm "rogue one". >> should disney investors ignore concerns about espn? and our very own david seaburg, the way he's playing the health care group in an all new "fast pitch." that's it, later. more "fast" after this.
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eamon javers. >> brian, this could be day tonight brewing between carlos slim. we're hearing and learning the two men had dinner in florida.
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that's donald trump's resort down there on saturday night. obviously, carlos slim in mexico, the billionaire. antagonist of donald trump's throughout the campaign. a supporter of hillary clinton. trump giving a statement to the "washington post," saying he described his visit with slim as a lovely dinner with a wonderful man. you wonder what the implications of that lovely dinner with that lovely man are for business for carlos slim and for the presidency of donald trump as he moves forward on issues like the wall between the united states and mexico. reorganizing the nafta free trade agreement, and general relationship between the united states and mexico overall. so an interesting meeting between carlos slim and donald trump, brian. >> eamon javers. thank you very much. guys, carlos slim, you know, may not be a household name. a., the richest man in mexico, controls or owns chunks of almost every large mexican corporation that you have probably heard of in america, perhaps the biggest one. does this -- should this make us a little more bullish?
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on mexico as an investment? >> yes. tim seymour, he's not here tonight -- >> kind of a warren buffett. >> he said, you watch and see, president-elect trump will be far more conciliatory towards mexico. we talked about how do you trade it on the 9th. and we said the one name you have to look at is kansas city southern. ksu. if you like the transports, this name that was obliterated into the election, that's come back since, now trades at a reasonable valuation compared to the rest of the space, and if you think it's going commander-in-chief up to the transports in general, here is a name you absolutely have to believe if mr. trump is backing off. >> yeah, and i think you also have to look -- the mexican pesos in market trading right now is getting stronger. it's a holiday week and tough time of day. but you are seeing some positive signs there. i certainly think, you know, the ksu trade is probably the most direct way to play it. but have a dinner like that, mrs. bk and i had dinner, she said it was a wonderful dinner
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with a wonderful man. so it's the same thing. >> i wonder what happened after that dinner versus trump. >> we built a wall. >> but you were not at mara lago. >> i actually wasn't having dinner. time for our move of the day. check out shares of the xhb, the biggest home builder, jumping 1% today. lennar helping to boost the stocks higher after a better than expected earnings report. brian kelly, any move on home builders, lennar? >> it's interesting. you would think with higher rates, you would be probably bad for the home builders, and then last week, we saw that you had home -- housing starts fall below what were estimates and fall below a trend line. so this was an outlier and surprise. so the question you have, going into 2017, to me, the home builders set up similar to how the financials did last year, where this could be a big breakout trade if you have that economic growth that's going to push people into homes and maybe people are saying, hey, you know what, rates are rising and i
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have to grab that home. >> i had a dinner saturday night and spoke to a friend of mine who runs a rez detention firm and he said this is the first generation of people who think that 5% is an expensive mortgage. >> right. so it's moved a lot. >> right. i think this move, it's a big number as a percentage move of where rates are. but still, we're back to where we were last year. >> so you're not concerned. >> no. i'm not, really. the economy is better and i think people -- uncertainty of the election is over. >> i think this is the haves and have nots. the low-end -- kb home service the low-end sort of buyer. the low-end restrictions come off from the banks. you're going to see end lending open up at the low end. people got over their skis, there is a lot of wall street people struggling. watch the high end. i like the kbh, even though it's up strong. >> seeing money go lower. >> all right. still ahead, nike, by far and away, the worst performing dow stock this year, down 19%. but is nike now so bad, it's
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good? we're going to tell you the bullish bet that has all of wall street talking. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. we are first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up. signs the rally could be in trouble and it has something to do with this. we'll tell you what has one technician calling for a top in the transports. plus, seaburg is bringing the heat. pitching the "fast money" desk on what he says is a can't-miss stock. the name when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money," the post election rally continuing a little bit today. with all the major indexes closing in the green, the dow and s&p are tracking for their best december in six years. meantime, here's what's coming up on the second half of the show. disney's "star wars" offshoot "rowing rogue one", the sales mark this year for the first time. reason alone to buy the stock. biogen shares falling after hours, following the appointment of a new ceo. we'll speak with that new ceo in an exclusive interview coming up. but first, it is crunch time for all the good men and women delivering boxes at fedex and u.p.s. they are busy. with today being the busiest shipping day of the year, consumers ticking off the missing pieces. will your packages be delivered on time, morgan brennan personally guaranteeing.
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how are they looking? >> reporter: that is the key question. so you just mentioned the fact, this is the busiest day likely for u.p.s., as well as one of the busiest for fedex and also the busiest mailing day for the u.s. postal service which expects its peak delivery day thursday. why do i bring that up? the u.s. postal service actually delivers the lion's share of amazon packages, roughly two-thirds of all those amazon u.s. shipments, according to analysts. so how are they doing so far? according to ship mate recollection, u.p.s. in their express segments have been so far about on par with last year. we're looking at relatively strong performance rates there. and that is all three of these parcel carriers away double digit volume growth versus last year. so u.p.s. and the postal service saying so far they're on track to meet their forecasts which are $700 million and 750 million
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packages respectively for the holiday season. f fedex less forthcoming, the company reporting earnings after the bell tomorrow. for that reach, expect to tune into the conference call tomorrow evening for a holiday season update. but the big question here, as we get closer and closer to christmas and actually also hanukkah, there is a lot that could still potentially go wrong. if we see weather turn bad in certain parts of the country and/or if we see a last-minute spike in online shopping. both those dynamics that have department dented u.p.s. performances, probably the biggest risks as we get closer to the holiday weekend. brian? >> all right, morgan brennan, thank you. and thank all the men and women behind you. deliveries may be heating up. but the transports trade may be cooling off. that's what one top technician familiar to all of you is saying as one of the year's hottest trades starting to show cracks after hitting all-time highs. bring in carter worth. >> well, brian, this is one of
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the hot yet trades of the year. the best-performing important index in the market. in the past two weeks, two major milestone, an index lagging all over indices. and one week later has its worst week of twoix. and rebuffed at the high. we had a bear market. 32% decline from late '14 to early '15. 32%. straight down, and we just get back and we stop dead cold. it has its worst week relative to the s&p in 12 months. meaning it gets to the top and is turned back. so the question is, is this going to be an important double top? or is it just the pause that refreshes? what we do know is, it is finally at least caught up to the general equity market in the sense that it's making a new high. now, in terms of the look
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itself, again, right at the high, a slight new high and backed off some 3.a% down in a matter of five sessions. you can draw the patterns any way you want and call the head and shoulders bottom. it's also met its objective, broken out from the neckline, and it's stopped at this key level. so from here, what we do know is, though, it went up seven weeks in a row, outperforming the s&p. if you look at the stats on this, and i'll end with that, it suggests weakness ahead. first, in terms of where it is in relation to its trend line, whether you use 150 or 200, right now trading some 17% above trend, is only traded higher than this one time, and that's in '09 coming off the financial crisis low. so overbought this way, overbought this way. and then actually, look at the paris trade i think that plays out quite well here. this is -- optically, beautiful. orange is the s&p, blue is the
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transports. this underperformance is what is likely on a relative basis. if you like a pair, you want to be short ioit, and long spy. here are the stats when you had a seven-week period of outperformance. rolling seven-week periods going back to 1978. this is an instant rate of less than half of 1%. this is the result going forward, one, two, three, weeks for the transports after they had a run like that relative to the market. down, down, down, down. meaning take profits. and the index, of course, is price-weighted so fedex and u.p.s., 21% of the volume of the dow jones transports. >> wow. carter, really interesting historical perspective, as well. on that basis alone, should we invite him over? >> i don't see how we don't. >> so there you go. long iyt. >> that should work out. yep.
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because one is -- getting all the benefits of whether it's the post election or some of the better data globally. and the other is broader index. obviously, so if you are a pair a trader, this is the biggest you could make on intermediate basis. >> what about among the rest of the transports, truckers versus airlines. >> the most overbought would be some of the truckers like jb hunt, already down 7%. many dropped riders down 8%. >> huge. >> that's right. so you run up and the aggregate itself has more to get back. unp. >> i would -- unp is the least extreme in terms of the individual components. truckers are fairly -- >> i love fdx. i think fedex is a great company. pretty in line with the multiples, 17 times next year's
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earnings in line with the market. i love the stock. >> do you still follow up on the idea the dow -- >> are transports as important as they used to be? >> not to me. i think -- the fed has been involved -- yeah. the fed has been sort of aggressive by nature. backstop to market. look at the market, completely bear -- i think the players doing that are winning. >> love cbw. but i will tell you this. we have -- >> carter braxton. >> you know, that's probably -- just went up. >> he should be. he should be a stock -- i would be long. just, you know. i'll say this. fedex report after the bell tomorrow. fedex is through a double top at 180. you could see the following take, fedex come in, in line, potentially, guide lower. that stock traded down to 180. the previous double top. the transports sell up, sell off commensurate to what carter just
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said. and then you had an opportunity to buy fedex. >> remember, that's what you wanted to do. the steeper you go without correcting, the more -- >> yeah. >> pumpkin futures before halloween. just get out when you can. >> cbw. >> world bank, actually. there is one. >> still ahead, why one trader is saying to just buy nike into tomorrow's earnings. plus, a new ceo from biotech giant, biogen. what can their investors expect from the new man in charge, meg tirre tirrell suts down. and what are the key questions you'll ask? >> biogen's stock decline a little bit on the news of this new ceo and the company may be off the table as a takeover candidate. what he's more excited about and what job number one is, coming up after the break.
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and welcome back to "fast money," everybody. thanks for being here. disney's "rogue one" grossing nearly $300 million worldwide. pushing disney ticket sales above $7 billion for the year. that's a new industry record. julia boorstin is live in los angeles with more. julia. >> reporter: hey, brian. that's right.
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"rogue one" demonstrating they can expand the franchise into an annual film eventuality. "rogue one" grossing $150 million, the third biggest of the year, and $290 million globally so far. disney with a buy rating of a $125 price target for the stock. jpmorgan projecting that disney studio could generate $600 million plus in profits on the film, which will have a near-term positive impact on consumer products revenue, and longer-term could boost theme park attendance and spending at the two "star wars" lands in the works. this bullishness on disney's studio in sharp contrast to concern about espn and disney's largest division media networks weighing since august of 2015. but disney with six of the top ten films of this year, if you
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include carryover performance from "star wars" "the force awake" in the likes of "zootopia" and reboots such as "the jungle book" and "america's civil war" and "finding dory." now "rogue one" will have to prove itself over the holidays. but the film does have an 84% rating with critics and a 90% with audiences which would help it hold up pretty well. brian? >> all right, julia. thank you very much. let's trade disney. first off, anybody see the movie? >> which one? >> "rogue one"! what do you mean, which one? >> my son saw it. >> spectacular. anybody here buying disney? >> at 106, 107, you have to sell it. it had a tremendous run, nothing against disney. we still have concerns on the espn side. but why wouldn't you take profits? >> yeah, i agree. >> don't you put $125 price target on it today. let's play the game. disney is going to earn $6.70
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give or take next year. at $125 basically a 19 multiple. we all agree that disney serves a premium multiple to its peers. how much of a premium? >> let's be clear, the media business, movies, are not a huge part of disney. >> it's a very lumpy business too, so you can't put a multiple on -- right. it's unpredictable how it's going to go so shouldn't deserve a multiple that -- >> because there is risk. box office risk. >> yes. >> yeah, but the economy getting better, theme parks getting better. you make the assumption that job increases also help out theme parks. and look, i agree. you don't chase the stock here. you're going to get a pullback. the euphoria will be over, closer to the $100 levels. >> bk -- 3ps 0? >> might take a look again. i'm still concerned. you still have to have an answer what's going on with espn. maybe they'll spin it out, maybe
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something like that. but at 100 bucks, would i take another look? sure, why not? >> shifting gears from a dow stock on the rise to one that has been in the dumps. nike reporting earnings after the bell tomorrow and one trader, though, making a bet the stock is going to make a comeback. that trader, the man who needs know introduction, mike coe, joining us in austin. mike, why do you like nike? >> well, you know, i mean, this is an interesting case, of course. nike, as you pointed out, been behaving very badly all year. and there have been some concerns about rising inventories. we did see bullish activities in the options markets today, traded two times the average daily volume. where we saw that activity were opening buyers of the january calls, paying about 50%, over 3,000 traded. 300,000 shares of stock. that would be a bet that nike is obviously going to have a positive result for earnings, which are going to announce tomorrow after the close. and that would be a bet that the stock is going to be up at least
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7% by january expiration, a little over a month away from now. >> david seaburg, nike? >> i don't like nike at all. this is a company i think is going to lower gross margin in sales guidance. when they report. so here's a company that's got bloated inventory still, discounting aggressively. adidas taking north american market share. i look and say they're in trouble. i wouldn't touch nike here. >> don't they have the border adjustment now, kind of the new term for possibly some trade tariffs? aren't they one of the biggest importers from china? they've got to be. >> are plus also in terms of the strong dollar. you know. a lot of the reasons. i think maybe two-thirds. >> think about the gross margin, you know, tack on that they had, based on price increases. they're not getting that. that's the tail wind they had. they lost it. so that's out of the equation. for more "options action," check out the full show. 5:30 p.m. eastern. still ahead, biogen announcing a new ceo in the past hour. meg tirrell will sit down with him exclusively.
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and david seaburg says one of them is a screaming buy. will the other traders get on board, who is in the bullpen, warming up in a very bizarre manner. you're watching "fast money." >> left-handed glove. eye lot
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what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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. welcome back to "fast money." biogen announcing that michael -- >> easy for you to say. >> michael taking over as the company ceo. meg tirrell no doubt practicing the last name joins us. worst i've ever done, meg. >> that was amazing, brian. michelle vonanza joins us now. thank you so much for joining us. >> my pleasure. thank you for having me. >> we realize you're joining us minutes after the news of your new appointment. we thank you so much for that. we have to ask you, as biogen is in an uncertain time right now with the rest of the drug industry for biogen specifically, questions about the future of your multiple sclerosis franchise and the highest risk, highest reward pipeline assets. what is job number one for you as new ceo? >> allow me first to say, i am so honored to be the successor
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of the helm of biogen at this point in time. such a great company. and coming back to your question, you know, we have a very strong ms franchise. we have a strong leadership position. we have supeepering sue pittsburgh assets. a lot of focus on the potential takeover target. whether that has been taking place or not. how do you look at biogen's future as a stand-alone biotech company? >> so, listen. i heard about that before coming. and before joining biogen. and this did not stop me. so this will continue, and i will not comment on speculation. but the mission in life now is to set a strategy and to have a plan, and to exit on this plan.
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this is my mission, and this is what we are going to work on. >> in terms of your pipeline, i have to ask you, we saw recently some results from eli lilly on its alzheimer's drug taking a similar, although not identical approach to alzheimer's, one of your biggest risk, potential reard's assets. what did they tell you about alzheimer's? >> we are very encouraged by the phase three and the role we are performing on today on our lead assets. i would like to say that vis-a-vis the lily compound is different. the patient population is different. the entry criteria is different. the -- so, i mean, we cannot associate the result of one with the hope and the future on the other one. we remain fully committed. the element need is tremendous. and we have to, you know, take the risk.
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and this is what we are doing. this is, you know, inherent with cutting-edge science. and this is what biogen is all about. show the value. opportunity is tremendous. and obviously, making the medical needs for the patients. this is the heart of the mission of biogen. this is why we come up every morning and we work hard at meeting those opportunities. >> and we understand, you're taking the helm january 6th officially as ceo just a few weeks before somebody else takes a new job. donald trump as u.s. president. what is your expectation for his effect on the drug industry and on biogen? >> so, listen. i will not speculate on the president-elect. i think that with time, we will see. i would just like to recall everybody, this is not the first change we have seen in the administration. and the industry has done well. and return was very good. and we continue to do well. >> all right. we'll leave it there for you. we hope you join us again soon.
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thank you so much for joining us tonight. >> thank you. >> brian, back over to you. >> meg tirrell, that was a great interview. thank you. let's trade biogen. what do you think, david seaburg? >> i buy the weakness. the official read was down. i like the stock here. i would be buying biogen on the weakness tomorrow morning. a great stock. takeover premium coming out of the yeah equation. you take a second look. >> i hear that, guys. i wonder -- when i hear takeover, i think how many companies are big enough to take over biogen? four or five buyers at the most. >> it would be big. it sold off because that premium was coming out. now you've got somebody in charge whose whole job, all day long, all he's going to do, michelle, is try to make money for this company. so i agree with seaburg. >> because an outsider maybe knows all right, this company
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could be for sale. i don't want to have a short tenure somewhere. >> the weakness in biogen has existed since the beginning of 2015. 2015 was a disastrous year. this year sideways. it is not an expensive company. you know what their multiple sclerosis franchise is. totally taking a flier now on their alzheimer's product. if it hits, this is back to being a $500 stock. >> this is a hit for donald trump, as well. everybody worried about clinton and now trump -- >> biogen does not have the same headline risk as a name like a gilead. like mylan labs, for example. i understand what you're saying. >> let's get back to david seaburg. time now for the fast pitch. one of our traders pitches a stock they think is worth the buy. after that, all the traders on the desk will decide whether or not they are bought or selling into that pitch. david seaburg, you are at bat on the smart board. >> look, i'll make it easy. the stock is ad vi. humora has represented a big
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chunk of their revenues. this management team has really done an amazing job, worked on building that pipeline. very soon, what they have is they have got some data coming out. we're going to hear about their oncology product. we're going to hear about, you know, sort of some news coming out relatively soon, hopefully before march, on oncology. this is a company that's has got a solid dividend. 4% dividend yield, amazing in this particular space and i look at the discount. 14 times. so, again, human humira. this is when they reported earnings. the stock got smacked down here. the reason why, humira light. no one anticipated that. this is obviously the rally up in biotech strayed out because of the trump election. and now we've got the stock here, right above the 100-day moving average, very encouraging. i think the stock has got more legs to the up side. a lot of people misunderstanding the opportunity here right now. it seems like you almost get the
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pipeline for free. so i would take a look at it from the long side. i think the stock could trade up to easily, easily close to the 65, $70 level in the near-term. and i think if they get some positive indications off their update on the cancer pipeline, i think it would go through 80 bucks. so abvie i'm long. >> thank you very much. do you guys have any questions for david? >> i do. dave, bk, be long-time listener, first-time caller. enjoyed your presentation. 4% dividend yield. if they have got such great prospects, why aren't they reinvesting? >> they have a huge chunk of revenue coming. they are paying out the dividend, returning cash. because it's the right thing. they have purchased companies. we talk about the pipeline. this is a combo therapy. it's important, this management team has got a lot of credibility, a lot of clout. they're going to make the right decisions, i believe in it. the stock has been rerisked from
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the fears about this challenge to the ip, if you will. i think we hear some positive stuff from that, bk. and, be again, a 4% dividend yield is a home run in this scenario. >> all right. jeffrey is upgrading bristol-myers, but they said abvie still their top pick. guy adami, buying or selling? >> look what i'm doing. put my board up. what does it say, brooklyn center brian sullivan? bk makes a cogent point. >> can i see the white board, please and the pen? go ahead. >> all right. i said no buy. just because i'm afraid of the space. >> aww! >> if i had to be in the space, then it's something -- long seaburg. >> bragging on -- >> k? >> for me, it's sold to seaburg. and comes back to the -- i'm afraid of the space. there is still uncertainty about what biotech and drug companies are going to be able to charge
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for the drug. so i don't -- for me, sold to you, seaburg. >> there is your new board. punctuation, cheap, comma and valuation buyer. there you go. two sells and one buy -- >> i don't know. >> what? >> i'm going to show the folks at home what brian sullivan did. you've got to show it to everybody! can't be between me and you. >> it's like your shirt. stop clubbing baby seals. profits from one of the hottest trump trades. more "fast money." this is probably still incorrect grammar. coming up. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders?
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i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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"final trade" around the horn. bk? >> for me, you sell some financials, take profits. >> karen. >> a nuance on that. i think long some s&p puts. they're inexpensive with the volatility index. and stay in play in the rally. >> david seaburg. >> looking for an underwhelming quarter in nike. i would be a seller in nike. short seller. and the earnings. >> wow. guy adami. >> great having you on board.
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vie tech, hockey man, you know i love you. you do yeoman's work. >> now what? >> adobe. it sold off after earnings and making a trip back up, brother. >> how about the guy happy birthday, right? happy birthday to guy adami? >> it was your birthday yesterday? >> your birthday yesterday? happy birthday, guy. "mad money" starts right now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you. so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. don't just stand there. find something to recommend. that's where we really are right now in the market cycle, and it's a powerful incentive to

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