tv Street Signs CNBC January 2, 2017 4:00am-5:01am EST
good morning and a very happy new year. welcome to street signs. >> your headlines. >> european equities get off to a tepped start after u.s. markets close the last day of last year lower. but out performed as banks lead the way higher. friends, germany and italy all report a rise in manufacturing pmi. shares of apple supply or dialogue dips after they will cut iphone production by 10%.
and islamic state reportedly claims responsibility for the new year's eve attack in istanbul new year's eve night and the manhunt for the gunman still continues. good morning everyone. happy new year. let's kick everyone off with economic data. 54.9 versus the forecast of 4.9. and entering 2017 in a pretty good shape. new orders accelerating despite rising prices in manufacturing growth was the strongest since april 20, 2011. for the euro zone and this follows a pretty good state of numbers. the french manufacturing number was the strongest since 2011. the german manufacturing print saw a three-year high and for
italy, a six month high. >> we're seeing a reversal in the first hour of trade here. the markets started off slightly in the red now we're seeing the german market pick up higher by 0.7% overall. we've seen strength throughout the morning now topping the index higherer by 3%. utilities are on the rise as well. we're also seeing strength in eonafter discussing cost cutting plans. higher by 2%. investors continue to watch the financial sector. and looking for deutsche bank higher. and investors are keen to see volkswagen wrap up its doj settlement before the president obama turns over to president elect don dkct donald trump.
remember, it is still 24i7b, quiet holiday trade. nevertheless these markets are open for business and the picture continues to be green arrows an hour into trade. higherer by a half of a percent. the italian higher by 1.4%. similar story for the french cut and the german market moving higher to the tune of 0.9%. let's give you a closer look at the italian market out performing today and this comes despite seeing a 9% decline in 2016. so perhaps investors are waking up to 2017 as r and looking at this as a buying opportunity. today moving higher to the tune of 1.4%. as a reminder many major stock industries including the u.s., the uk, japan and china are closed for the new year holiday.
how do you want to be positioned for 2017? the ceo of harris capital joined us around the desk. so what do you want to do for 2017? is it a continuation of 2016? >> i think it does, yes. we got to tread carefully. because last year really was the year of two halves. the acty bond switch midyear. we saw german bonds turn around. japanese exits. and looking at the u.s. post the election, looking at europe as the pmi's are coming through with the big devaluation effect. if i look at global equity evaliations, they still look reasonable to me. earnings growth globally, at least in the european and north american arena, that looks
pretty good. so unless we're going to see an expansion of the risk premium, a lot of things are in place for the rally to continue at least through the early months of the year. the caveat is what happened midyear last year. it was a complete about fast. and certainly the reflation trade and very much the one that's on. >> the s&p was up 10% last year. only italy, that was the big out liar down by around 9%. it was a year in which we saw the brexit vote and it trump victory happen. none of that was expected. but just looking at the games for the course of the year, the investors and markets were pretty immune to that. >> guess what? most people made lot of money last year. so it's a question of does that momentum continue? what does the market do? it climbs the wall of worry. and as we move ahead this year,
yes, there are blocks in the road. i think what rewe're learning about brexit is it will come. nothing but nothing is going to happen on brexit until the german elections. and i think when we are looking at issues we should worry about, it will be elections in europe and when fiscal policy and monetary policy collide in the u.s. >> investors certainly appear to be anxious ahead of these key european elections. is that the chance to really -- >> it's interesting in the last show and he's very much going that right-wing route. we spend time in france. if you're outside the cities in france, lepen is strong. but the metrupallten areas have
the numbers and i think that's where theonwill gather his strength from. that's nine months away and we've seen various shots across the bows in the last 12 months at state level. and i think the dutch vote, that's early in the year. i think once that's out of the way -- and once we're through that, then i think there's a much easier story for europe to tell at least on the political side. >> when you move beyond the political rifts, how do you do the various sectors here because especially the european banks missed out on some of the fun? is this a buying opportunity? >> what we've learned from the greek crisis and what we're learning from the italian banking crisis is at the end of the day, there's a buyer of last resort and normally the national
bank. these fires do get put out. what we're seeing is the fact that the banks are beginning to function. not properly, but in a better fashion. that's the difference between the u.s., asia and europe, the fact that manufacturing and service sectors can move ahead has been lacking in europe and that's obvious when you look at the growth rates that have been coming through. so if we have a banking sector that starts performing better. deutsche bank, everyone is celebrating they are still in business and can move on. but the point is they can move on. i think that properly capitalized banks, able to function better, the dising disagrogation of market activities, these are things we should take comfort from.
and if you're in my proreflation trade, banks as a financial ceptical is on that. >> and you say deutsche bank can continue that rally? >> you take the rally point from the last eight years, they're still there. so, there's a way to go. >> all right. thank you so much for that. ceo of harris capital. the islamic state has reportedly claimed responsibility for the attack on new year's eve in istanbul. nbc's richard angual the very latest. >> reporter: at one of istanbul's one of night clubs they counted down the clock, looking forward to an exciting year to come. then just after 1:00 a.m., they
caught bullets ricochetting off cars as he rushed to the night club's door. he's wearing a dark coat and a backpa backpack. the footage slowed down shows the gunman move dgcisively, shooting everyone he saw. witnesses tell nbc news it took less than 10 minutes to kill dozens. then he dropped his weapons and escaped among the fleeing survivors. she says her husband was shot next to her had. >> translator: there were people on top of me. i pushed them off. the smell of gun powder was everywhere. >> reporter: the club is called reyna, popular with many including this new year's eve. at least 39 people are dead. their families overcome with grief. now a manhunt is underway. turkish officials say they're
confident they'll catch him. so far there's been no claim of responsibility. the suspicion is this is the work of isis. during the attack some people were jumping into the freezing waters to escape and last night and today the coast guard was fishing out injured and terrified survivors. hadley gamble joins us from bay route. we know isis has claimed responsibility for the attack. how does that change the efeffo goes forward? because the crowd was a very international one as well. >> reporter: this is pretty consistent with what they've been encouraging them to do, these loan wolf attacks and i think that when we go forward in terms of talking specifically
about terrorism, it's going to be interesting to see how this relationship with vladimir putin develops. part of that is how they tackle terrorism. both of these leaders, this is something very close to home because they both have significant minorities including the pkk for turkey and how they tackle that problem going forward and the kurds. and russian president vladimir putin has his own problem with militants in his own country. and as we see the new administration in washington take over in just a couple of weeks. a and really what this relationship is going to look like between turkey as a native member and president elect, donald trump. >> thank you for bringing us that update. meanwhile we want to hear from you. our address is street signs
europe at cnbc.com and of course you can find us direct on twitterer. @street signs cnbc and directly. >> and do you remember what happened exactly a year ago? >> i was on holiday. >> but we saw this big sell off at the start of the year, the implosion of the chinese equity markets which spilled through to the rest of the world. >> a rough january. >> and february on top of that and all based out of this pmi number out of china and we got another pmi number and it was expansion for the fifth month in a row. >> and i think what the last three years have shown us, january not necessarily an indicator of what the year holds. >> 2017 hold as lot of potential political fireworks. here's a look at how the world rang in the new year.
being clear and upont. yeah, that's great. multipli by 14,000 financial'. and i's how edward jones makes sense of iesting. here you go.piing uporyle. you wouldn'put up something wrong?izza. so when omes pailiers, why t up with st pt d? ve wnot part anything with a screen is a tv. stream 130 live channels.
plus 40,000 on demand tv shows and movies, all on the go. you can even download from your x1 dvr and watch it offline. only xfinity gives you more to stream to any screen. download the xfinity tv app today. welcome back to the show. yes, you're still watching "street signs." that's the name of the show. they're up and running for this year and the dax just hit the highest level since august 2015. the index is up around 0.8%. it was higher to the tune of 7%. rwe says it will pay 6.8 billion
euros to the government in relation to the storage of nuclear waste by mid2017. this after the biggest german utility company agreed to contribute almost 12 billion a year switching the responsibility of storing waste away from the private sector. and deutsche bank's chairman has ruled out a mergerer saying it's muted. his comments to a german newspaper come a week after the lender reached a $7.2 billion settlement over the sale of mortgage back securities in the run off from the financial crisis. chancellor murkal -- she said 2016 had been a quote year of severe tests but urged europe to form a united front against hatred.
>> translator: where europe is challenged as a whole as it is in global competition in the protection of our external borders or regarding migration, it must be a response as a whole, however pain staking this must be and we germans have every interest in playing a leading role in this. mel uk prime minister may as britain gets ready to talk about brexit. they agreed it had had been a divisive issue but vowed to find a deal that would satisfy everyone's interests. >> we all want to see a britain that is stronger than it is today. we all want a country that is fairer so that everyone has a chance to succeed. we all want a nation that is safe and secure for our children and grandchildren. these ambitions unite us so that we are no longer the 52% who voted leave and the 48% who can
voted remain but one great union of people and nations with a proud history and a bright future. so when i sit around the negotiating table in europe this year it will be with that in mind. the knowledge that i am there to get the right deal, not only those that voted to leave but for every single person in this country. while looking across the euro zone, high pmi particularly out of germany and a three year high close to it in december. strong figures coming out for italy as well. and when you look at the overall euro zone composites, it appears they're holding up rather robust for the last month of the year. for more on the broader picture and the growth outlook for 2017, chief financial economist at
jeffrey pfs. happy new year to you. pmi is not just holding up but rather robust for large parts of the euro zone. what does it hold? >> it's encouraging. obviously euro zone is ending 2016 on a reasonably high note. but we're still looking at growth on average of less than 2%. and an issue is inflation going to be picking up? we know it's stuck around .75. i don't want to -- at end of the day, the euro zone needs even stronger growth to pick up inflation. you can start tapering at some point. that's the key call for it. >> so does that suggest tapering this year is completely off the table? >> they're running down to some degree the amount they're buying. and in their mind was equivalent
to a rate cut. if you look at the extension -- thet is equivalent to coming rates by 50 bits. and they're not in the position at the moment to taper. >> we have so much political risk on the agenda. germany, netherlands, france, maybe even italy. what does it mean for economic growth? does it also be condeuce toov economic growth? >> you could argue everything that's going on could draw europe close oar together. that's what they would wish to see with all these issues, including brexit which kicks off in march, europe will come closer to together and form a proper economic and fiscal unit but i don't think that's going to happen. again one shouldn't over state the politics. the uk certainly through the brexit vote was actually
stronger than we expected so that's encouraging as well. but at the end of the day these political risks are going to be a major issue for markets this year. >> you mentioned the u.k. and we saw that third quarter gdp up to 0.6%. the services sector -- what tells you about next year and a lot of 1.1/1.3%. might not see a major upgrade too. >> the currency obviously is weaker than it was prior to the june vote of 2016. that's one very important reason why 24 uk may now be out performing expectations. but the point is investments have been slow. we did see the first signs potentially of the labor market slowing in a labor market released just before christmas. and employment actually fell.
there's a an issue that it's going to squeeze incomes. so i would still look for a slow down. and uk from 2% last year and potentially to only 1% in 2018 and that assumes some acceleration and no recession. no back of gdp. >> we were just listening to the address. she once again was talking about the members struggling to get by as she said. how does this play in for expectations on spending power? >> brexit is going to be a real issue for those struggling. when you think of the fallout, a lot of it will be in the regions outside of london. the regions. and also people will be struggling and the brexit discussions could make matters for them worse. so it's going to be very
difficult. it's within the gift of the government to dispute income. i know the government was criticizing the bank of england last year and they ultimately, the government can sort of redispute in the budget in march but let's see. it's goefweeg a difficult year all had around, really. >> do we have any clarity on article 50 talks? will we get anymore information? having to make investment decisions have any confidence to move forward? >> no, because i think the european commission is going to be handtling the negotiations out of brussels. it won't be germany and france. brussels are going to take the lead. >> you said brussels politicians don't want to have the brexit discussions impact -- >> no they told the bureau krats to start negotiations.
this is about divorce separation. nothing about the new trading situations. they'll get the uk a large bill which they'll need settle and make it very clear that certain things aren't consistent with a single market. and it will be pretty clear going into second quarter it's going to be a torch ws process. we really don't know where the uk's going to be in two years time. >> that's david owen chief financial economist at jeffrey. and still to come here, 2017 will be a momentous year for french politics. after this break.
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welcome back to "street signs." >> these are your headlines. >> an early turn around for european equities as the dax and touch highs not seen since 2015. >> and euro zone manufacturing activity in december rises at the fastest pace in five years. shares of apple supply or dialogue slips after they state they will cut iphone production
by 10% due to weaker demand. and the islamic state reportedly claims responsibility for the istanbul attack with 49 dead as the manhunt continues. ♪ just wants to recap some of the biggest moves we saw in 2016. currently at 102.62. it was fuelled by the trump victory and hopes for higher reflation in 2017. but also by yet another fed hike to the tune of 25 basis points in the month of december. and we've slotted in three hikes for 2017. just to give you some stats. that was the fourth yearly gain in a row. let's move on. i want to show you what the dou jones has done in 2016 up by
roughly 13.4 m%. that was the best year since 2013. and leaving both the s&p and nasdaq higher and 24 best performing sector, that was energy up by some 24%. and let's stick with the energy space because i want to show you what happened with crude up a whopping 51%. but hey, we did finish the year at a year high. why? because of this agreement between opec and nonopec to cut production. >> that's right it's finally getting into action at the start of the year. and carolyn, it's not just oil that really shocked investors. the currency trade a big part of the story. that doesn't even compare to the trade when you look at sterling off some 16.4% this year. no surprise you see a dramatic
drop right here on june 23rd. that shock referendum vote sent sterling plunging and a few little hick ups on the way. but overall this dramatic fall has been supportive of the footsy 100 as well. that's one reason the index closed out at a fresh record high. let's give you a shot of how the chinese mainland shares faired on the shanghai composite because they had their worst levels since 2011. off 12.3%. looking at specific sectors that also surprised investors. health care came in focus largely due to the political debate surrounding not just obamacare but drug pricing as well. overall for the year, this index was off some 4.4%. many analysts were looking to the surprise defeat of hillary clinton for president as perhaps supportive of bio techs.
so this is one sector many say will have a big question mark hanging over it until we get more clarity on president elect trump's policies. >> what's the play book for 2017? just joined us around the desk. good morning and happy new year. so, how do you want to be positioned for 2017? we had a guest at the top of the show who said everything is going to be the same which means the trump rally will continue? >> i think the reality is what's it biggest risk out there? it's not trump. it's not whether china's economy can grow 6 or 7%. it's not brexit. it's the biggest fear that europe is no longer going to be a cohesive area. the reality is that people worry too much about this in my view. my view would be europe is going to surprise the most in 2017 and consequently the euro and european stock markets are the
big out performers. >> and that seems to be a contrarian view. >> when people fear something already -- the biggest fear out there is european unity desintgration. people already factorer that in, worry about that. so the reality is much of it is patched in. the dutch elections, the the german elections, and much is concerned about already. europe's already disliked. look at those massive out flows from european equities in 2016. therein lies your opportunity. i'm optimistic. >> any specific areas you like in europe when it comes to looking for bargains? they suggested some of of the
blue chip stocks could out perform? >> i would agree that they're generally cheaper than their u.s. peers. but two areas seem to me most interesting. the first is that you will see an improvement in more domestically economic stocks. and the lax of growth in the european domestic economy. so those retell construction, financial, building. second area, i think is that if the euro recovers, then the dollar will be a bit weaker. that's great news for the emerging markets. so any european country, big exposure by sales or profits, they will be interesting to look to. >> when you talk about the first
half or second half of this year, some of the european bonds have been falling to an extent but others say when you look at the growth met rks in europe -- >> it's sort of a growth rate plus an inflation rate and growth and inflation are both below what you see in america. so, yes, bond yields in europe should be lower. they're not good value today. that's the reality. my feeling is the rotation continues in 2017 and you have to think about areas of the market which are still offering relative value. because it has such big out flows, you've got this opportunity in 2017. so my feeling is if we push through some of the fears and they become, if you like -- the fear factor is far too big already. if we have sthomething a bit mo
okay, then we'll get this reality of european equities doing better, the euro doing better. europe perhaps form as space in 2017. >> one big point of contention is active versus passive. last year i believe i saw a report saying only one in 10 managed to beat the -- >> it was a great year to actually make active bets. if you're at the middle point of the year went from being cautious and defensive to optimistic and aggressive, you would have out performed. active managers were substantially out performed. further rotation and change. so go to active for 2017. >> you look quite optimistic when it comes to europe and active management.
maybe wishful thinking but who knows. european strategist at raymond james and let's get back to politics. france 236s former economy minister has moved in front of bright wing rival akod cording to approval ratings. he became the most popular of the leading top five politici politicians. he resigned last year is running as an independent presidential candidate under his own e en marche movement. and le pen will borrow money from her father's company foofund the race. because the french banks quote refuse to finance us. but they're skeptical between
the links of her and her father after he was expelled for racism. and they spoke to national fr t frontrunner and asked if she is france's donald trump. >> the reality is that i was the only politician that definitively supported it defeat of hillary clinton and tool say that donald trump's policies supported my country. the refusal of massive immigration and intrusion into other countries that contributed to the rise of fundamental islamist and the refusal of the free trade treaties between the u.s. and the european union. that would be completely devastating for the french economy. it's true that the election of donald trump is a massive return to the people. it's a return of the nation in a world in dh we considerer that
nation was a thing to move past. unquestionably we had had points in common with donald trump because we hope for independence for our country. a return of power and a calming of relations around the world. >> when donald trump won, the french establishment woke up, seemed frightened and said wow, marine le pen can win in france. >> translator: i think the elites have lived too long among themselves. we're in a world where globalization has forgotten and put aside the people, the people's interests, assprations and dreams. they have acted like carnivores who use the world to enrich only themselves and whether it's the election of donald trump or brexit, the elites have realized that the people have stopped listening to them, that the people want to determine their
futures and in a perfectly democratic framework take control of their destiny and that panics them. so, yes, in these conditions if the french people too wish to regain their independence, wish to regain control of their country and reinforce the elements of security, the rule of law, economic patriotism, then i will be elected president. >> the shorthand to describe your party in the united states is anti-semiticanti-semitic, an. >> translator: the description that has been used for it national front in the united states is exactly the description that was used for it supports of donald trump in france. each is as false as the other. it's a way for the system to discredit those who refuse to play by the rules of the system. we cannot let ourselves be
stereotypes and i think that many americans today realize the deplorable image that has been by the national front in the united states is as insulting and misleading of the deplorable image made of donald trump and his supporters in france. >> the polls say you could win. t does that make you nervous? >> translator: no. this doesn't make me nuvls at all. it makes me impatient. i see my country falling. i see in the eyes of strangers and they arrive and say where is france? i also want france to come back and for france to rediscover its power. its impatience that motivates me today. quick, quick, quick. let's put our beautiful coveted country back on its feet. a senior aid to donald trump has questioned whether the latest sanctions on russia are
out of proportion. sean spicer said the president elect would raise questions about whether russia was being unfairly punished after president obama expelled 35 russian diplomats last week over the alleged hacking during the 2016 election. this has prompted no retaliation from russian president vladimir putin who said he would work to restore ties with the u.s. when donald trump takes office later this month. chris. >> reporter: yeah. that's right. donald trump continues to question that assertion from the u.s. intelligence agencies that the russian governments and the highest levels were actually behind the hacks of the democratic national committee. it being the first monday of a new year, donald trump is now back in new york after spending the holidays at his resort in
florida. he spoke saturday night before going to a new year's eve party about this issue and said he's still skeptical. he knows a lot about hacking and it's very difficult to prove who actually did hacking. he has insider information, or indicated he did that he was going to reveal tuesday or wednesday. that was a cryptic promise from him but he is set to meet with the leaders of the u.s. intelligence agency sometime early this week. we don't know when that is going to take place but we assume he will reveal it after he meets with the intelligence agencies. >> thank you for bringing us that update from washington. well, let's give you a shot of where european markets are before we go to break because we've seen a reversal on the first trading day of the year. in fact, we're looking at the german-made market.
ov overall, these are the highest levels since december 2015. and italy, also highest since january 2016. it is a quiet trading post holiday but these are decent gains to kick off the new year. g myoderate toeverecrohdiseas i dndnhink t was anything else to talk out. butsoi finally broke the since wi my doctor abwhat i was expering. anything else to talk out. sd hura whve tried other medicase t stl experiencethe toms oderate to severe crohs diase. in clinical studs, the majoa sianmany achieved ression. symptorelief. huraanowouability to fightnfec, cluding tuulisved ression. symptorelief. hurses, setimes falo fightnfec, inctnsnd cancers, cludinincluding lympssion. shaveappened; asave blood,iver, and nervous system problems, seouand wsengeactio, hearilur before treatment get tested for tb.
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and 11,577 points and the underperformer in the european space last year is adding on 1.3% this morning. keep in mind volumes of very, very soft but there seems to be some buying going on, on the first trading day of the year. >> they're looking for bargains on the trades that didn't do so well. we spend so much time talking about dou and looking at the so-called trump rally, he's easy to lose sight of what took place. >> and the trading picture hasn't been that bad. i believe the cac in france was up by 8 or 9%. of course you have to disregard the likes of the ftse. but the uk. index up in 2016.
and since brexit up double digits. >> fresh record. who would have predicted that? and we get a fresh record by year end. >> that's in sterling terms and lot of people remind us of that. but there are some major opportunities for investors if you're in these markets. but we were cautioning people that it's not necessarily predicting the rest of the year. a bit of a different story this time around when we were looking that official china pmi. that was down from the previous reading of 51.7. the slight fall in the pmi number comes after the chinese governments efforts to step up
monetary policy efforts. the official nonmanufacturing also fell slightly in december and remains in expansion territory. remains in expansion territory because we have heard some investors stepping up warnings about china's slow down not too disappointing and not too strong either. >> do not constitute capital controls. that's what a pboc official told state media. this after they require the country's banks to report overseas transfers of over 50,000. the pboc says the new measure are designed to prehaven't mven laundering. and really had had a bruising year against the u.s. dollar. the big question is how is the
pboc going to react to that in the face of increasing dollar strength under president trump? >> and when you look that devergence, that was raising alarm bells for some but the government has been very quick to say nothing to worry about on this one. and when we talk china, we often think about the crucial reports for apple. it is set to cut production of an iphone by 10%. that's according to a nikkei report. the article says accumulated inventory was the main reason for the cuts. the semiconductor are trading lower on the news. we won't get a print on the apple stock state wide today. these tend to rattle investors slightly. and it was interesting because yes, they are cutting down the number of iphone 7s and demand
exceeded their expectation. the problem is when samsung had their issues with the galaxy note 7, apple then sped up production of the iphone 7 but not iphone 7 plus and they're saying in fact those customers coming from the notes 7 may have been buying up the iphone 7 plus model as opposed to the standard 7. it's too difficult to tell without an official word from apple on this one. >> what i found intriguing is not so nuch new products. greater emphasis on seary. but i think this year it's not necessarily about the products. it's more about what they do with the cash cow and we might see a repatchriation of overseas
cash. so are they going to invest in their business? are they going to return to share holders? >> it's an interesting question because the hope for president trump when he takes office and the administration would be that these tech giants have something like half a trillion dollars in cash overseas. the hope is that they would create jobs. history shows us that in fact not a lot of jobs are created because it goes to mna. >> or share buybacks or dividends and that's really good for investors. and you could argue it is good for the economy because such a large portion of americans hold apple stock but it doesn't immediately create new jobs even though i know tim cook has been talking to donald trump. >> a lot of faces at the table. tim cook says he wants to be at
the table to at least make change. >> threalet's have a quick look the markets. the dax up and fairly positive trading on this january 2nd. and that's it for today's show. i'm carolyn rock. >> and have a very happy new year. we'll see you again tomorrow. w onext pageou'l see breakdowosts. at 's just. erg tosk a it buweer'tso thanks. befronon hdwar jos sense of inv.
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