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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  January 23, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EST

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when plans start becoming concrete, when the house comes up with a tax plan and he and his aides decide whether it's something he can accept or not. >> we'll be on the watch for all of this, of course. market off the lows, down 74. press briefing at 1:30. got to watch that with sean spicer. thanks for your help, john. let's get over to wapner and "the half." >> i'm scott wapner. we begin today where the last hour left off. a lot happening within the white house today, the president just signing three executive orders, most of which to deal with trades and jobs. earlier he met with business leaders. we'll talk about what all of that means to your money today. joe taranova along with steve weiss and josh brown and kevin o'leary is here. we do begin with the president and that big meeting at the white house today. i'm interested to get your
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reaction of a roomful of ceos meeting with the president on his first business day, at least during the week of business. >> it's nice to see people representing all types of industries there. i think that's important. even industries that didn't overwhelmingly go republican, like technology. you see some of them in the room. you see the auto guys there, financial people. i guess that's what you want to see. trump is doing exactly what he said he's going to do. he's signing things right off the bat. he said they want in office. you may not like everything he's do iing. it's not a situation where he promised one thing and he's not being seen in front of the camera. i would expect this goes on for a couple of weeks. i'm not sure about any of the stats, like john harwood just said. you could stand up and say 75% of all regulations will slash. it's demonstrably ridiculous. the majority are at the state and local level and won't be touched. but, fine, make your statements. sign your things. and i think it's a sign of
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overall net on balance, i think it's a positive that at least he's doing what he said he would do. >> dow chemical ceo, andrew liveris helped to put all that together. here is the president of the united states, donald trump, inside that room this morning. >> i have people that tell me they have more people working on regulations than they have doing product. and it's out of control. it's gotten out of control. i am a very big person when it comes to the environment. i've received awards on the environment. but some of that stuff makes it impossible to get anything built. >> steve, if you're in the market, if you're an investor, as josh said, maybe it depends what side you're on. you may not agree with everything that the president does or says, but if you are an investor or market participant, you can't help but look at a picture like that, see the names and faces in that room and think it's a pretty positive thing. >> it's a very positive thing.
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and as you're an investor, you've got -- if you can just focus on that, look through the noise of tweets and the other issues, it's great. but, unfortunately, that's not the issue. the issue is, does it get complicated by the other things, by the tweeting and by the off-point messages? and can you -- there's a segment that's going to say, that derailed this. well, that decoupled it from a congress that decidedly is republican. >> this, to me, is the quintessential example of why people say focus on what he, the president of the united states, does and not what he says. >> but over the weekend -- >> hold on. >> over the weekend there was one controversy over another with the press secretary, some of the president's comments about the size of the crowd. other issues, et cetera. yet the first day of the week that he's the president of the united states, he's assembled with a group of the foremost ceos who are very familiar to
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our audience in a room discussing some of the very initiatives he says he was going to do. >> exactly right. my point is, that's great. if that keeps going, that's great. my only point is, does it come to a point where that overwhelms? the first day in office, actually, was saturday. and what was that marked by? an alternate fact pattern, to use a quote, about the attendance at the inaugural. he could be the most achieving president we've ever had. i'm glad we have a ceo there. and i'm a big fan of all the programs he has. everything he signed today, what he signed on saturday. i would just love for him to dial that back so we can get that done. and that would be, to me, the greatest presidency we've had. >> what will the market react to more, joe, a tweet or a meeting with ceos like kevin plank and gorsky, liveris, fields? >> the market needs to stop responding to what it's seeing from washington, d.c. it needs to take a pause, take a break. josh mentioned before we're
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going to see a series of initiatives, fiscal policies we have not seen for many, many years. that's going to play out over multiple months. >> years. >> and if you're taking your strategy, your portfolio and measuring it in the matter of minutes and days, boy, you're making a massive mistake. what's happening right now in the marketplace, to your point, is an interesting dynamic. everyone told you at the beginning of the year, buy u.s. buy international sales exposure. ignore international sales exposure. josh, i know you've mentioned, rightfully so, being in em is a place of opportunity. that strategy, buying u.s. sales, is down 3.5% already year to date. >> right. >> u.s. dollar is pulling back. u.s. tenure, scott, goes from 250 to 239. so, already, we're kind of offside in the marketplace on what the strategy is. and that is the important thing to focus on right now. that, scott -- >> part of my point is, what, you're going to sell stocks because you didn't like his
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inaugural address in are you going to sell stocks because you didn't like the tweeting or commentary over the weekend or are you going to be comfortable being in the market because of the meeting and type of meetings he's going to have on a regular basis with the business community? >> you're going to trim a portfolio because the indicators you expected to go a certain way. dollar higher, not lower. ten-year treasury yield not trading to 240. you're going to trim your portfolio because those indicators are going against what your strategy coming into the year was. that's what's happening right now. everybody is talking about a tactical correction. you might be getting a little bit of it. >> let me jump in here. bank trade that's red hot, down 1.6%. consumer staples were the best group. that's a counter trend move. that's not the trend. the trend is higher for the banks and a lot of the stuff we've been talking about, like cyclicals. year to date, to joe's point, international cyclicals are
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doing better. take a look at it as a ratio. got absolutely crushed after the election. everyone ran for american stocks. that has now reversed hard. you're seeing brazil look great, china looking better. russia looking great. and eem to spy ratio chart is now back to where it was on november 10th. >> maybe there's other places -- maybe people think because of the rally we have had is somewhat tapped out. >> see, trillions of dollars. >> however, i spoke with john paulson, hed hedge fund manager, part of the president's economic advisory council. i spoke to him at length friday evening who told me he increased his long exposure to stocks on the election result and said the following, that an administration that supports growth supports everyone, american companies will retain more of their after-tax income with the president's policies, a huge boost to earningses per share and s&p.
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paulson's words. companies will have more to invest and better return on that investment. it can be a positive self-fulfilling profess that lower taxes, less regulation, less lawsuits and deals that support u.s. manufacturers is all very positive. >> very smart guide. he made his money in the housing trade. not performed as well as it could have. he has been big in health care. it's been an albatross lately. >> so what do you say, he doesn't deserve the credibility of the comments? >> he's very vested in the trump administration. he's in the trump administration on policy. >> wait a minute. >> no. >> it's more than that. >> it's last decade. >> here is what i would say. it's too early to milwaukee a determination. if he's able to execute on the policies that he has put forth, america is a place you want to be. i am looking for a buy opportunity in america. i think the market was fully valued, market got way ahead of itself in terms of evaluation, 19% in the russell. i think there are opportunities that are going to present
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itself. it's still the preferred market to be. >> kevin o'leary. kevin, i've been reading some people are calling you the donald trump of canada. you can take that whichever way you want. we'll talk about some of your political aspirations in a moment. you want to join this conversation? >> yeah, sure. you know, what i listened to this morning with trump is something that will become more and more on the radar screens of all countries. he's talking about -- remember, u.s. domestic is the only country in the g7 that's not got a value-added tax. a company in canada wants to sell something in the u.s. it allows that canadian exporter to export to the u.s., does not collect a value-added tax. when the same american company, auto parts, ships into canada, the canadian government whacks on a 15% tax and collects it. trump doesn't like that. i want to see how that gets solved for all of the g7. i care what happens in britain, france, germany.
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i heard a subtle write of a pen signature was to change the policy on what he's going to do on taxing value-added taxes. it's a big deal, guys. if he actually goes for this border tax it's a whole new ball games on earnings and we'll have to look at it country by country. this is scary stuff, kiddies. >> kevin, you point out clearly that he has to go for the border tax. and he has to do it right now. if he wants to pay for reducing the corporate tax. you think about the annual trade deficit, $500 billion right now in this country, marking a 20% adjustment tax on that you raise $100 billion. now you can cut the corporate tax rate, which brings in revenue of $350 billion. so, you're right. he has to, right now, place front and center the border tax in order to actually lower the corporate tax. what does that mean for the marketplace? >> josh, josh, do you know what the impact of that is? largest trading partner is canada. do you think canada will sit on its rear end and let that happen
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to them? i don't think so, my friend. that's a very ugly trade war. >> i think it's going to happen. >> what happens around the world, trump is absolutely right. if you want to be an auto company in china, you have to share your technology with them. if you want to sell iphones in india, the reason they don't sell them is because you have to have facilities there. so, all the other countries have protectionism. we don't. so, let's get in the game. he's dead right. it won't be protectionism. we're not going to be outlawed and outcast by the others. we're just playing their game. i agree with them. >> and that's the point. do you really believe, though, that despite what he said -- remember, we're trying to assess sort of the art of the deal, if you will. and the art of the negotiating style of a new president. do you really think he's going to go through and you're going to have companies that can't have a factory in x, y, z location if they're selling and
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shipping products into that market? >> the reason why so many -- >> or is is he making the point maybe it ultimately comes to that? but don't forget about what's happening here. move jobs or keep jobs here. do you really believe that he's going to be as extreme as some of the rhetoric would lead you to believe? >> no. >> right. >> the reason why so many people are doing what joe suggested earlier in the program -- and i wouldn't say ignoring, but not making any big, drastic moves based on any of this. to your point, this is fluid. and to everyone's point, this stuff is changing day-to-day. the art of the deal is, look, let me put all my cards on the table, punch the other guy in the face and then come to an agreement slowly and maybe even quietly. the end result may not look like what he was screaming from the stage in the stadium. are you going to take your portfolio now and make these big, concentrated bets, one country versus another, one currency over another, based on things that are being leaked to
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the press every 15 minutes? i don't think it makes any sense. i don't think smart money right now is making a huge reaction to any of this stuff. >> has he given you any reason not to be long u.s. equities or to increase your exposure to equities like john paulson has done? has mr. trump given you any reason not to do that at this point? >> i don't see that there is any reason. >> you seem to be hung up a bit on the tweets and the rhetoric. i get it. >> no, we're not. >> no, no, i wouldn't say i'm hung up on it. i'm saying out there somewhere -- >> i'll give you a reason. >> -- that's a risk. >> go ahead, kevin. >> 46% of sales in s&p are outside america. you should be worried about that. when you tear up tpp and nafta, worry about the other half of s&p earnings. >> i get it but did he tear it up? >> that's why the market is -- >> did he tear it up or make a statement that he wants to make sure that it's going to be the most beneficial that it can be
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to american companies, and we're far from the finish line? he's just started off with the race. >> my point is, he added risk. he added risk to the s&p, supposedly up 11% earnings. if all of a sudden he's moving this fast on trade agreements, don't think think there won't be ramifications from every other g7 countries. >> that's the point. >> i don't like trade wars. >> he said what did what he sai going to do. >> canada, that's because of energy. if you can tear something up, tear it up with mexico, okay, and let the others be on notice. >> a group of stocks that don't care at all. goldman sachs put out a note to look for secular growers where some of the global economic stuff probably is not as important as what's going on with the individual companies. google is a phenomenal example. earlier this morning, stock came within 70 cents of a new all-time high. the types of business that
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they're doing really has nothing to do with nafta. sure, there's some risk to s&p earnings. if there are these egregious trade deals. which, by the way, i'll take the under on. i don't think that's affecting every stock in the market equally, number one. number two, i think the market is a little bit more resilient, maybe, than other people might think in that it reprices this stuff. it figures out, okay, this is a negative on the surface, but what's the ancillary positive? joe brought up repatrioting trillions of dollars. there will be tradeoffs. you may not like what happens in q2 but maybe it comes back around and rewards you in q4. >> i think we're making a big mistake by talking about the market. there's strategies within the market. high tax rate strategy we've been talking about for weeks now. it's outperforming relative to the s&p. you can find strategies that are
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going to work. what clearly has been identified, at least to me in terms of fiscal policy, we want to cut the corporate tax rate. okay, mr. president. how are you going to pay for it? by a border tax and that's going to raise me $100 billion based on where the annual trade deficit is right now. plain and simple. what does that mean for the u.s. dollar? that could move higher. his rhetoric in understanding that last week was talking about the u.s. dollar not getting too high. you've got balance in that regard. you don't want to get caught up in all these policies three days in, thinking that they're going to happen so quickly. you're making a grand mistake there. >> real, real quick, i want to clarify this. i'm not cautious on the market. and i'm not not fully in the market because of trump. >> i thought you said you have a lot of cash. >> i've got cash. you play the russell. i agree with kevin. don't play the s&p. dollar will get stronger. i haven't touched my financial. >> let me translate that for our younger viewers.
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steve weiss is in the friend zone with the market right now. >> bertha coombs has breaking news for us at the news desk. >> the judge in the aetna/humana merger case has rejected their merger. the department of justice. the court judge john bates saying the court concludes that the proposed merger will, quote, likely substantially lessen competition in the medicare advantage in 364 counties. a combination of aetna and humana would effectively create a monopoly and also in the public obamacare exchanges in three complaint counties in florida. the judge was not persuaded by the argument that the companies made that they struck a deal with melena health to divest, saying that the experts said it was difficult to enter into the medicare advantage market.
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what's interesting here is that he also argues that there is a real difference between traditional medicare and the medicare advantage market for those who aren't familiar with the medicare markets. traditional medicare is what you get from the government. there are no networks. you can go to any doctor. medicare advantage markets are more like the private insurance most of us experience in the private market and through our employers, where there's more networks and restrictions but everything is all included in one plan. those two markets, he says, are separate. the companies argue that they competed with one another. there's a $1 billion breakup fee here. so far no comments from either aetna or humana. back to you. >> if you recall the conversation that we had last in mid july with mark bertillini, ceo of aetna, when the doj sued to block the deal in the first place pledged then to, quote,
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vigorously defend that merger. >> got to get to trump tower. >> the question is, what happens now? is there any other legal resource they can pursue? they said they would go to court if necessary. >> they appeal. >> they appeal? >> billion dollar breakup fee they'll have to pay. why wouldn't you appeal and hope that now you have a new administration in, you could work out maybe a settlement under a new administration that maybe looks a little bit different than what we've witnessed with halliburton, baker-hughes that have fallen. >> the merger shouldn't happen. i wouldn't interpret republican and trump as pro merger. all it's going to do, it's going to go ahead and increase pricing. that's not what trump is about. there's no reason for these companies to merge. they shouldn't merge. stocks barely down. >> there will be firings and he doesn't like those announcements. >> right. the fact that humana is down shows you that the market didn't expect this merger to go through. >> big dow stock, mcdonald's, as
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you know. i wonder what you think about the comps, declining 1.3% in the u.s. and that all day breakfast initiative that had done such great things for the stock has sort of run its course. >> they've got to do all day lunch. i don't see any other -- you had a great year at mcdonald's, things they launched with the ceo, they largely worked. increased foot traffic, great comps. in the next year, it gets really tough. and i don't know what's -- extra long french fries or whatever. but seriously, i don't know what the next leg up in the story is going to be. and the stock price reflects that. it's been really stuck in third or fourth gear. probably since last summer. and there's no sign that the buyers are coming in. so i would just really stay on the sideline and wait to hear what they plan to do next. you have already the positive benefit, the first things they did. well priced into this, 20 times
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multiple in a market that sells for 18. >> 121 bucks. do you buy here? >> no. >> weiss? >> no, you don't. can icon se concede the rest of time to the expert in food here? >> please. >> i don't think mcdonald's got hurt very much. other opportunities whether it was jack or one of the pizza names. but the challenge, and the reason i say no to buying mcdonald's is i think mcdonald's is a little bit different in terms of maybe a starbucks with technology. mcdonald's doesn't seem to have the technology initiatives that maybe some of these other -- >> it's a lower price point food, though. >> that's the question. so this morning all the analysts' notes are well we're going to introduce technology to the product now and make that better for you, the customer. to josh's point -- >> what's left?
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what's the margin to sell something for 99 cents on an app? >> it's too competitive. there are too many other offerings. restaurant base is challenged and so many other levers they can pull as cramer said this morning. you have to wait for the next big idea. it's not coming. it took 20 years for this idea, all day breakfast. >> we'll leave it there. take a quick break. here is what else is coming up on "the half time report." >> a big call on a major name in health care. the analyst says this stock is going up 38% from here. and don't worry about the recent drop or conditioners about the sector. before the break, our partners say watch the japanese market. dating back to 1981, the nikkei is up 81% of the time in the first 100 days of a new presidential term with an average return of more than 10%.
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in the usa, energy and financials are the place to be in the first 100 days. more "half time" with scott wapner coming up.
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>> i know you know the words to this. you better have them down pat
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now that you're running for the conservative party. >> i am. you know, i'm an investor globally. you know that, scott. i go all over the world. canada is hometown for me. born in montreal. i have two kids that are canadians. basically you'll get decent government, particularly in canada. a rather remarkable situation. and justin trudeau just got elected less than two years ago. he didn't see trump coming. all his policies on corporate tax, carbon tax, tax this, tax that, are completely out of sync with the u.s. he should have used the trump election to basically pivot. he didn't do that. here is what got me into this whole thing. i'm a vocal critic of bad government anywhere in the world, particularly hometown. i saw a report that he's going to run deficits for the next 38 years, ending in $1.5 trillion debt. those are my kids inheriting that. only 36 million people in canada and this country is rich with bounty. you've got to be kidding. no chance in hell i'm going to let him do that.
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i'm going to be the leader of the conservative party for the next three years and basically that gives me a flashlight of transparency to make his life hell. if i see a policy i don't like, i explain it to the canadian people. i can read a balance sheet, assess risk. i can make his life living hell i can make him do as little as possible until i get there to turn the country around. this is what's craze by it. mark burnett made this joke the other day, shark tank versus the apreprentice smackdown, coming you in 2020. it's nuts. >> on that note, though, the fact that some would perceive this as your trying to capitalize on this trump-like wave that certainly is out there. that swept him into power some, i read shall have started to refer to you as canada's donald trump. how do you respond to that? >> there's a whole change in the body politic all around the world. you saw it in britain, canada,
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certainly happened in the states. people are no longer happy with politicians. they want people that have executional track records. if you're going to make policy, like trump is doing right now, and they want him to deliver on it. same thing in canada. they're not happy with the way the country is running. it's not a good analogy. i'm half lebanese, half irish. if we built a wall around canada, i wouldn't exist. we're a very inclusive country. two official languages. it's not the same as the u.s. but we're the largest trading partner the u.s. has. i've got to get the policies in sync with what trump is doing. you've got two business guys running the country. i don't think that's so bad. that's what's going to happen. that's how it will end up. i'm cool with it. >> kevin, it's joe. you mentioned canada being the largest trading partner before. your ability to work with president trump, obviously, you feel that you would be able to. obviously, you think you have a strong relationship. have you discussed why your plans with him? >> no, i haven't. we haven't talked about that.
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here is the deal. i want to get my hands dirty in big files like excel pipeline. if we were working together we would get that deal done. i want my billions back by getting screwed around by obama for years. that's what we want. i bet we could work out a deal in 48 hours on that. canadians want that kind of thing. listen to this. canadians spend $12 billion a year on saudi oil because they can't figure out how to get a pipeline from alberta to the east coast. that's crazy. saudis beat women with sticks. that's nuts. we don't do that in canada. i'm not going to give them $12 billion anymore. these are the kinds of things that canadians are waking up to and saying let's cut a deal with trump. get our two countries in sync. we're great partners. who spends billions on american procurement? canadians. we've been a partner in the military for decades, sharing the largest border on earth. we need business guys running the countries. that's what i think and that's what's exactly going to happen. >> may 27th is the big day,
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correct? >> it is for the leadership. tune in. we'll have some fun. i'm hoping to take over there, the leadership party, get my flashlight of transparency out, make justin trudeau's life absolute hell. >> we'll talk to you many more times between now and then, kevin. thanks for joining us today. >> take care. thank you. >> kevin o'leary. >> now i'm definitely not moving to canada. >> well, let's move on and talk about a stock, because it has been a rough start to 2017 for bristol-myers. shares are down nearly 15%. however, today jeffries reiterates the buy. >> do you like this call, reiterating buy? >> i do. the reason i do, scott, you look at the portfolio, last week the stock did get slammed because of the concerns about the drug they're working on in lung cancer.
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when you look what they've got in the portfolio right now that's very strong. the pipeline, that's extremely robust. suddenly you look at the partnerships that bristol-myers has. especially the cardiovascular partnership right now with pfizer. i think that that's undervalued. because of that big pushdown last week i understand the call, agree with the call. i'm not in the stock right now. only reason i'm not at brist bristol-myers is i have not seen the option paper that would tell me suddenly there's a turn, change of opinion of those that want to get involved. until i see that i'm not back at bristol. i'm waiting and looking. when i see it i will pounce. >> are you making a broud broad statement on the otherall space? maybe there's no paper because people are apprehensive about the administration's policies. >> yeah, absolutely no doubt. you and i, we have been going back and forth about this for the last couple of weeks now. we were talking about it ever since trump and the tweet and some of the commentary, rather,
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from the president-elect, now pr president trump. that is a concern. we look at this in a completely different way now. it is an area that probably is under attack. which is why instead of having as much exposure as i've had in the past, right now my only two big holdings right now, pfizer, merck and some biotech. that's it. i had plenty of stocks in this area, lillian, bristol, and a number of other names. but i'm not as deep into that health care world as i once was because i think right now, we have to be very, very advised by the president in terms of who is under attack at any moment in time. >> weiss? >> this is definitely a fallen angel that went from promise that could be acquired at some point that could do no wrong to not being able to get anything past the fda. i'm not sure that the market is misinterpreting it, as jeffries said. i think they're trying to
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balance themselves out of a very, very crowd long that they're the last ones out of and still in it. i'm avoiding it. i don't see the value here. it's still expensive. i'm staying away from the space i would rather buy biotech like pete is dabbling in. they'll be hurt near term as trump pursues this. they're not giving it up. >> sorry, weiss. you own it, right, josh? >> yeah. this has nothing to do with anything with trump. stocks got .17 correlation to the xlv, moving on its own problems and it definitely has real problems. obviously, they're falling behind to mechlt rck in this specific category, big setbacks for the drug that there were huge expectations for i bought this thing the last time it got killed. i have a little, may add a little to it. it bottoms out. this would be a double bottom from the last time right here at these levels and i agree, a stock that's gotten crushed already, down 40, 50%, expected
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returns go up. and potential risk goes down, so long as the business is still intact. we're talking about some relatively minor issues in the scheme of things for a longer term hold. i like bristol here. i understand what the challenges are. i think the market is way, way, way overpricing those challenges in. and that's why there is a market. that's why there's an opportunity to buy. >> shares of qualcomm are getting punished today, that stock down nearly 13% after a big run. do you take advantage of that dip? plus now jeffrey gundlach says it's time to diversify outside the united states. which markets he likes and which he's shorting.
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welcome back to "half time report." qualcomm hit with two downgrades. let's hit it, joey. >> as steven said before with bristol-myers, it's a fallen angel. you're seeing a piling on effect in smart phone space. clearly, margins reached that they are challenging. i would not touch the stock right now from a valuation standpoint, value investor also come in and say okay, this is
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something we should get behind. i think it shows the maturity in the space and they have their problems and will spend a lot of time in court not planning what they should do to lift out. >> licensing uncertainty. downgrades on the timeline with xpi. >> there's enough bad news out there, scott. i don't think you need to try to, in other words, catch this falling knife right now. that's exactly what this looks like. i would rather be looking at the stocks that feed into that apple pipeline we talk about more frequently. earnings from sky wards absolutely unbelievable when you look at the numbers out there. sirus logic still works, intel still works. i don't think you want to have jump into qualcomm. other than a few analysts involved in the stock, it's had a very difficult time. it finally got a little rise last year. it's a concerning stock to me
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because of the exact issues in front of them now. to sue herera with the latest headlines. >> hi, scott. a federal judge, as you've heard, has blocked the merger between aetna and humana on anti-trust grounds, ruling that the proposed health insurance merger is anti-competitive. specifically, the judge ruled the proposed merger is likely to substantially lessen competition in the sale of individual medicare advantage plans in 364 counties. aetna says it is considering appealing that ruling. as peace talks get under way in kazakhstan, the syrian government releasing footage of what they said was ongoing fighting with syrian rebels in western syria, long controlling the valley of damascus where a crucial river flows through the capital. avalanche in california buried two cars and caused a highway to be shut down overnight. one car was partially buried and the other totally buried with two men inside. luckily they were rescued by
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firefighters. "star wars" episode eight has a name. the eighth film will be called "the last jedi." the director confirming there will be little lapse in time between it and "the force awakens," hitting theaters december 15th. that's the news update this hour. scotty, back to you. >> thanks, sue. the trump presidency, building etfs. president trump wasting no time, signing the order to officially withdraw from the tpp trade deal. what else might happen in his first 100 days in office? we'll dig in. is mcdonald's all day breakfast boom already cooked? or is the fast food king still agood buy for your portfolio? we'll have an analyst on that. as you hit on etfs, don't worry, trades that might pop a trump administration. that's ahead on "power lunch." wt in
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n she our know gwhwhdosto td ohn,coinin and they're absolutely right. they say that it's hot... when really, it's scorching. and while some may say the desert is desolate... we prefer secluded. what is the desert? it's absolutely what you need right now. absolutely scottsdale. macy's down. steve weiss sees an opportunity. why? >> it's the worst quarter for
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retail. expectations couldn't be worse. it is so ugly, it's almost cute. so i bought it. i want some exposure to market. that's where i got it. >> checkpoint's off where? headed toward a breakout? >> it has broken out. we talked about it with andy a week ago. right on the verge. blew out their earnings. 10 million on revenue. this is becoming a subscription business rather than just an enterprise sale. it's what investors want. it's working. the stock has now broken out to all-time highs. there are no natural sellers. if you get a low-volume pullback to the gap area, that would be where you buy it, if you missed so far. i think ultimately, though, it heads higher. >> largest etf conference is under way in florida. bob pisani is live from inside etfs in hollywood, florida, that is, where the trump presidency is taking center stage. hello, bob. >> anybody for a trump etf? you can't just buy an etf that
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consists of stocks that might benefit from a trump presidency. not yet. there's plenty of discussion around constructing portfolios. aerospace, ita, as well as pkb, infrastructure spending they believe a trump presidency will see higher volatility, more debt. go long gold. more disagreement on whether trump will be bearish or bullish for the dollar. uup is what you want here. there have been contrarian plays e europe short on the dollar, eafe. the worry with trump is that long-term, traditional sector bets are very tricky. so, gear up for bets like oil and gas exploration, xop. defense and aerospace and pharmaceuticals, pjp. the best investing idea i've heard, twitter should sell co-location services to high frequency traders so they can be as close as possible to twitter servers so they get news of any
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trump tweets before anybody else. i know that sounds a little facetious but someone floated that particular idea. a lot of idea about using euro as a potential investment alternative. back to you. >> bob pisani down at the etf conference. josh? >> take my word for it, if someone approaches you with a trump etf, run as far as you can in the other direction. no way to take who is in the white house and extrapolate an investment story that's worth anything. article on march 9th, 2009, two months after obama came into the white house, obama's radicalism is killing the dow. s&p 500 up 295% since then. you could take trump's tweets, you could take his press conferences, et cetera, come up with trades. i would not be making long-term investments. the president gets way too much blame or way too much credit for things that go on that are entirely beyond the scope of the oval office. >> if you thought the policies in and of themselves would be,
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let's say, dollar positive -- >> yeah. >> -- why would investing in an etf that plays that trade be a bad idea? >> i'll tell you why. that's a great question, scott. i'm glad you asked it. when george w. bush came into office in 2001, he had a lot of great ideas and things that he wanted to implement. and seven months later, the world trade center was blown up and all of a sudden, the new themes were defense spending and things that really were entirely away from the original ideas that the president had. there are things that go on in this world that are beyond the scope of what the oval office is able to do to influence stock prices. it's a very, very dangerous game to try to say, oh, he like this is sector. buy those stocks. a, the market is smarter than you and may have already priced that enthusiasm in. b, things are going to happen during the trump presidency that he didn't want to have happen. he will have to deal with them and it could derail a lot of the programs. >> i agree.
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not that simple. take your money, buy a hat that said trump won. it's not that simple otherwise everybody would do it. market is a moving target. you don't know how they will interplay. you don't just buy the dollar but against another currency. i wouldn't do it. >> getting bearish and bullish with jeffrey gundlach. ieae,ndn an dif eath
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in baron's this weekend, reiterating one of his ideas saying japan could get a significant growth. >> i totally agree with mr. gundlach. earlier in january, on our annual reconstitution, we were able to take some off from u.s. markets that have done incredibly well for us the last few years, nothing drastic, and add to these foreign markets where returns have been super slow compared to the s&p and we think have a lot more potential based on valuation, et cetera. japan is interesting because there's a combination of the government, major pension funds and a very underinvested japanese public that are essentially buying up around 5% of the market each year. that's a very powerful shrinkage effect on the number of shares of stock. they're outstanding, leaving the rest to investors like myself. and i think japan continues to work, hedged or unhedged. most people are doing it hedged because another thing that's happening -- >> of india, it's a long term
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play based on positive demographics and improving fundamentals. it could take 10 to 20 years to play out. >> i think it could. i think it plays out quicker. when you talk to a lot of ceos, you find them visiting india right now. i think the intention that we had on china has now maybe gone a little bit towards india. there was some policies put into place at the end of last year that had some money managers looking a little hesitantly toward india. time to invest is now. it has not elevated beyond its highs of 2014. i think you will see that happen. >> india has like a reagan-esque guy who is going to break up all these little fifedoms. he's going to be a little bit reagan-esque, maybe a little bit trump-esque. meantime it could have a a workforce of 300 million people, double the population of the united states. great demographic story. pete najarian with unusual
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activity in a bank. find out what it is next. ♪rric
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welcome back. first official comments from aetna. an aetna spokesperson saying, quote, we're reviewing the opinion now and giving serious consideration to an appeal after putting forward a compelling case. i know you said, weiss, you think it should be blocked. give me real quick on this. >> joe's right, they will app l
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appeal. they've got a billion dollars at stake. it's a very tough climate. we've already shrunk that group considerably in terms of managed care companies that are out there. i just don't think it will pass. >> stock still down 2.3%. peter najarian? >> you already teased it was going to be in the banks. but it's citigroup. friday of the initial earnings of jp morgan and bank of america, huge spike. financials were all off to the races. ever since then, even with good numbers, we've been seeing that decline in some of the financials. it's good to see some positive paper. april 60 calls, 10,000 bought in citi today, they sold some upside. capping the upside at 65. what that did was reduce the amount of money that was put into this trade. i'm not in that style trade. i'm in the april 60s. i sold the 65s. costs you about 70 cents to get some upside if citi group at some point between now and april gets up toward 60 or above, this should work very, very nicely. >> got about 20 seconds left.
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joe, what's your final? >> listening to kevin and seeing csx's earnings, csi. >> i was looking this morning and last week, it sold off quite a bit. that's a trade you want to look at. >> buy google. it's going higher. >> thanks for watching. "power lunch" starts right now. >> that's right. here is your rundown, hitting the ground running, taxes, regulation and trade to start his first week as president. what's he really likely to get done in his first hyund0 100 da? we're on the hunt for the hottest etfs, including the ones that might benefit most in the new trump world. >> and quarter pounded. stock not responding. why aren't investors lovin' it? i'm brian sullivan. "power lunch" starts right now. >>


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