tv Fast Money CNBC January 31, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
much. >> can they beat apple services number? that will be a big one. >> apple services growing 18%. cash hoard growth, that $695 is the average selling price. >> i hope you're able to join us. thank you all. that's it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins now. "fast money" begins right now. overlooking new york city's times square. tonight on fast, one of the most influential voices on wall street says to guy trump slump. the global ceo who oversees more than $2 trillion is here to explain what has him so bullish. plus, trump meeting with a number of drug ceos say senting biostocks surging. first we start off with the biggest story in the afterhours session, that is apple. the earnings in the last hour, the stock is rallying to the
tune of more than 2% at this point. on strong iphone 7 sales. we have total team coverage. josh just spoke with tim cook. plus, mr. apple himself making his red phone debut. he is monitoring the call onsite and will bring us instant reaction. and john skulley will be here later to weigh in on the results. first we go to the traders on the desk. dan has been pouring over the numbers. >> i have been pouring over the number. i think it is funny. we know about iphone is about 70% of total sales and very focused on what the guidance looks like they did guide down sales 2.5%. i want to focus on the things that i hear a lot. people talk about services. and they're really excited about 18% year over year growth in services. with decelerated. it was 24% in the last quarter. >> they had a particularly low base and you can make an argument that number, that 24 was probably lop-sided.
we know they have to diversify away from the iphone. we know the ipad is done growing. we haven't seen new i-macs in years. so this is what i hear again and again. it is important to remember that services in the quarter were 9% of the total sales. do you know what they were last year? 13.5%. to me, service isn't doing it for you. >> this is a phone company, right? you said it. 70% of revenues comes from phone. all that matters. maybe people might say they care about services but you're not buying apple stock because you think services will be a massive part of it. >> if you're a long term investor hoping there will be something to potentially offset, that you could see beyond that. >> they haven't proven it yet. instead of the next four
service. >> what he is saying, and i agree. record revenue for the quarter. you're at a place where we thought shipments would be kind of weak. i think the services number is not something to guy stock for but it is a relevant number. this refresh cycle, you'll get to a place. what is really impressive is that the asp in this phone is up to 695. that's something at a time when, look what's going on in china. the cheaper competitors, they're actually winning in china but they're selling -- >> what's going on in china? they just had year over year, the fifth consecutive down quarter. if india doesn't comon line soon, where will the growth come from? they haven't had it. >> so i listened to the conversation, which is fantastic, by the way.
the conversation we're having when amazon reports. people will talk about how aws is so important and he will say, it is not a really big part of the revenue stream. and percentage wise, it's not a big deal. so we can nitpick. at the end of the day, to beat his point. you can stay services are down the same way we'll talk about aws. >> i've been hearing about this ecosystem forever. there's never been a hardware company able to maintain sort of margins they have and been able to keep it going. so if you're telling me they've topped out at 70% of the total sales, then are has to be something else. for you people who have had a great ten-year run with it. >> except this isn't the palm pilot overnight. even if you're in a situation where something will erode, and we're not really seeing it in terms of the elite smartphone market. you're seeing separation and there will be bottom of the
barrel. apple is still delivering the best product and probably the best innovation within that product. what more can you do? that camera, the memory, the battery, people spend $120 more for an iphone 7 this year more than last year. you can't tell me services business doesn't become a bigger blanket. >> if voice is the biggest platform. and they are so far behind alexa. so far behind google. what are they doing? they introduced siri five years ago. the air pod is the most innovative product that has come out of this company in five years and they have not been able to deliver it. >> hold on. what do we do with this 2% pop? you would sell it. >> i think it will be red tomorrow.
>> are you chasing it here? no. but what i would say is for, let's get back to the old apple as an investor stock. a 2 plus yield. >> all right. more on apple. to gene on the red phone monitoring the call for the first time. he's bone obviously manile apple calls. what did you make of the quarter? >> it was a sigh of relief because the 7 iphone, even though optically it looks slightly below, they typically do better than the high end. that means it was huge. when it came out a year ago, it was a disaster. so i think the stock is moving up. they have good profitability with you trs some stability in
that. so that's the take away. you can rest easy knowing the iphone fran schis in fact intact. >> is the greater china sales, does that put the pressure on tim cook even more to actually execute in india? >> well, it was down 18% last quarter. it was some improvement. there's just a lot of competition. so i think there are some hard questions will come up on the calls. about how they're going on improve that business. >> you've talked on every single investor on wall street. do any of them say i'm buying long material for services? >> i think it is the phone company. 13 sperse services. the numbers that i hear is that it needs to get to 25% before they start with the services multiple. so even though it is good that the services is growing, and that's a long term strategy for better profitability and
sustainability, they're not getting credit for it from the stock perspective. >> we'll check back with that later on. gene munster. what do we do with it? i thought this would rally in earnings and would it test 2015 high. early in 2015 it was traded to 134. i think there's a chance that it gets up to those levels. obviously not tomorrow. and then we'll see what it gets. there not unlike goldman sachs which made an all time high earlier this year and has faded ever since. you'll start hearing about the potential for a double top in goldman. we could be here until valentines today and talking about flowers and beautiful things and talking about apple. >> that's what i would like to do on valentine's day. double talk. okay.
>> what do you do? i don't think you chase it after. this is a phone company. they have what serve talking about being, a massive refresh cycle coming up in the fall. that's what you buy apple for. you wait for your pullbacks. on the days it looks terrible, that's when you buy up. >> we have not even talked about the possibility of bringing more than $200 billion in cash overs' back here. is that another reason? sort of another option? >> for a while, the capital market story around apple was the only reason people are buying. it was about unlocking the value. i do agree with what he is saying. if you think about it, it is the quarter we're in. the chinese new year. then you go into this period whir don't need to own the stock until it is time queue up. i think the stock topping out at 131, 132.
no reason to chase it. >> no reason the run for the hills. i wanted to mention. amazon is about 12, 13% of the total. and you talk about how you get a higher multitude than 13 times. you get a business that is growing much faster than the whole. it gets to the 25%. that's how it goats market multiple fence. that's why i think the services are really important. i think it is really important they talk about a.i. and a.r. and all that stuff. to me that's where this is going to get. >> we have some breaking news right now. >> some news and i'm not referring to the conference call that just got underway. elliott management, arconic's shareholder releasing a news of a present participation outlines the need for a leadership change at arconic. elliott saying that is required
to improve performance at the company today. also, elliott saying it has nominated five independent nominees to the board and announcing the engagement of the former spirit air systems, as a consult yont. so elliott management coming a little over 24 hours after reports that some investors including elliott are looking to oust the ceo and chairman. it looks like we're getting confirmation of that right now. so arconic just reported earnings after the bell. reported a miss as well as revenues that were a bit light. the conference call is going on now. i'll jump on to see if they have a response. but again, the top shareholder calling for some major changes at that company, including leadership changes. >> all right. thank you very much. arcon sic a company that used to be part, or alcoa and arconic
used to be one company. and the stock right now is higher by 1% in the afterhours session. what do you make of it? >> one of the things we'ved. for years, alcoa will report. klaus will come on and he'll tell everybody how amazing. it was it was sideways for seven or eight years on a tape that basically tripled in a space that was kicking where they should have been doing amazing things with aerospace defense. and it didn't. it's interesting that it took this long for someone to call them on the carpet. this does not surprise me. >> well, he also oversaw alcoa when they bought at the peak of the market. saddled the company with an enormous amount of debt. aerospace is a very important part of the business. we're in a period where probably the next phase and psych people grows.
i get how someone might want a little more of an innovator even though he seems like an incredibly nice guy. >> look what is happening. they have this loaded up and you put it throughout and we're back near the highs again. i don't think you have to chase it but it is probably stable enough. >> let's look at shares of apple. the stock is almost at session highs. up by 2.8%. the conference call continues. meanwhile, john skulley will give us reaction to the earnings. the recent tension between president trump and silicon valley leaders. plus, the dow s&p over the growing concerns about protectionism from president trump. the they say to buy the dip. what has him so bullish? he'll be here. and later, executives met with
we actually had a good fourth quarter. what we saw was the shift that went from the consumer to the business. we looked over the last ten years and this is the fastest rate of change. >> that was ups richard perez talking about how the delivery giant struggled to keep with the online shopping last quarter. the stock falling nearly 7% today posting the worst session since last janice. the transport dropping nearly 2%. now this is interesting. they're saying there's a surge in online deliveries. we delivered the packages but it cost more to deliver them to homes as opposed to businesses. everything got hit. >> it seems like we've heard this the last few years again and again. it is not just the packages. all that sort of stuff. what the most important take away for me, the stock was down 7%. a 2% move in either direction.
only 1% post earnings over the last four quarters. people were on the wrong sides of this thing coming into today. it was trading 20 times expected. it was only supposed to grow 6%. much more expensive than fedex. >> so we talked about an options action. now it is turning. it is probably too high still. >> the thing is, in other quarters, things were bad because they couldn't deliver everything. they had shipping problems and things were bad. now things are good and still bad. certainly cash flow degenerative for companies and are buying back shares. this is a problem. and the question is, it calls into question the whole ecommerce model. dan says amazon will come after them and they spent a lot of money. they also have to invest. 500 basis points as well.
this could be a tail wind. people are expecting this to be a big multiple on nationals. >> the stock funding more than 20% to a three-year low after the company missed on both the top and the bottom. the ceo telling investors there are numerous challenges and disruptions in the quarter. like growing invent at the forecast sales. >> sales were up 12%. they were expecting 20%. margins are getting crushed because the businesses that are growing are the really low margin businesses. and they said it probably won't go for the next couple years. and we've talked about this. i think it is currently trading. it is probably closer to the high teens. which were a lot of these right now.
the good news, the analysts are gone. >> thanks for nothing. the good news is, it traded about six or seven times normal volume. and you might have flushld everybody out. maybe it gets interesting. >> this is a rerating. it is not a growth stock. when you cut in it half, which is what they can for 2017. i don't know. >> so then you have to ask yourself. one of the best ceos out there in the hall of fame of ceos, and that's why it got a higher ratio. the problem is, is the game over for them is that that's the question. is there such a massive change. the athsds leisure sector. can they try it ship? they will eventually. it will take a little time. that being said, i don't think it is a press on the short side. you let it wash out. maybe this is the capitulation. >> you better start selling other stuff, too. and he mention what had multiple
you trade at. thanks a lot. meanwhile, probably close to a 32, 33. five executives have left in the last 12 months. it does not happen any time soon. why are so many people leaving? maybe they missed the opportunity. i don't know. this is not something -- >> it was morgan stanley by the way. we don't want to just -- a whole bunch of them. >> that's a really good point. maybe he was a great founder. maybe it was great transition and that's a really important point. >> in miami beach, they're wearing underarmor. it has gotten ubiquitous. i think the success has translated into you about with it us. >> some very good athletic older
women in miami beach are wearing under armour. how am i doing? >> still ahead, apple shares on the move. we will monitor how stock is doing and check in on the conference call. the stock just hitting the after hour session highs on that 3.3%. we'll hear from tim cook what drove the quarter. john skulley. and the man himself, jean munster who is on that call. here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> you're going on get your products either approved or not approved but it will be a quick process. it won't take 15 years. and we're going to do a tremendous, i think we'll make a tremendous difference to you. >> suddenly, big pharma has a new friend and maybe a big reason to way to beaten stocks. we'll tell you the name traders are eyeing. plus -- >> it isn't cool.
"fast". it was a wild day on wall street. the dow falling for the third straight day. the index was down nearly 1%. here's what's coming up. a big mover in the aftershare session. it just took a leg higher. we'll tell you what was said on the call that has traders buying. gene munster, one of the most well known on the street.
plus, the former apple ceo will be here to tell us how he would deal with president trump if he were still ceo. >> some of the largest in the world getting called to the white house today to meet with president trump who after that meeting posted this rather cheerful looking photo on facebook. you can see the ceos and head of pharma at johnson & johnson. the general sentiment coming out of meeting is, well, that wouldn't be as terrible. still, that issue was the number one thing he led with at the meeting today. >> u.s. drug companies have produced extraordinary results for our country. but the president has been astronomical for our country. new drugs have led to longer, healthier lives. we know that.
but we have to do better. accelerating cures, where force and focus on fda approvals. we'll get approval process much faster. >> a lot of the biggest drug companies trading up out of that meeting. they are all there in the room with trump it was. a pretty balanced message, though did he talk about prices, he also talked about streamlining the fda, lower regulations and improving the tax situation for companies. i also want to dray your attention to the smaller bioteches. the xbi is more exposed to biotech names and did it outperform, up about 4% at the close. if you look at individual names, blue bird, spark they're compute igs, more speculative names. people saying more than more of that, trying to streamline through. and trying to help bring down barriers for small companies
could be boosting these guys and any talk of tax reform may be boosting. so you're seeing a lot of bioteches trade up. >> what is the initial reaction on the street? it sounded like there are plenty of things that could get them concerned. >> yeah. on the whole the reaction was obviously a positive one. maybe that shows that biotech investors are justment on mists by their nature. if trump comes back to it later, it could be dangerous. in materials of pricing, he didn't stop talking about that but he didn't have a lot of specifics. nobody knows exactly how he will address it so there are still a lot of questions out there. for today, people are breathing a sigh of relief. >> thank you. we haven't gotten a lot of clarity. that may be a good thing because we didn't get much new things in terms of what he wants to do to the industry. >> yeah. most of the whole sector was up
today. so as meg described, it wasn't as bad as everybody thought it could be. we didn't get clarity but wasn't a complete disaster. i still, until you have an idea of what your profit margins will be, this sector, biotech, big pharma. i think you just stay away from them right now. i thought it was, if every stock was up. even the stocks that have inverted and have tremendous manufacturing overseas because they had developed, some were domiciled in ireland. when he talks about a border. at a, you would think they might not be up as much as others. >> my takeaway was, getting rid of at love regulation, streamlining the fda. i hear what he is saying but i don't think this space has the bull's-eye on their back that they had a few months ago.
you want to see how interesting it was today. pfizer reported before the market was open. stock opened lower. look what it did as president trump started talking about streamlining the fda and getting regulation. stock went straight up. as did biotech. i still say against this 275 level that we've talked about forever, i think it is going higher. >> you can't tell me it isn't in the price of the pharma companies. sfu look at the ibp, it continues to slowly bump around and bump higher. right now, 285 is the top. i think you have to play to be careful. is your resistance level. but until broken, that is from a year ago is still intact. >> all right. if president trump urges drug company to lower prices, there's
debate whether kit succeed in the face of his populist stances. our next guest says buy the dip. he is the firm's global chief investment officer joins us from california. this is a pleasure to have you with us. this is a rare appearance. we appreciate your time. >> thank you. it is great to be here and to be here in california. they own private businesses and keep us updated in a proprietary network. we don't have to wait until quarter ends to know what's going on. >> and what is going on? we've had three straight, i know you're not a short term person. we've had three straight days of losses and we've been at a standstill for a month and a half basically. >> we still like equities here. i think there's been too much of
a focus on the trump administration. and the president. because at the end of the day, as we all know, the president is limited in his powers. what worked for us in 2016, and lith work as we get into 2017. focus on corporate earnings. focus on global growth and do the central banks remain supportive. i think what you're seeing here is that people got a little too excited about the dollar. maybe even a little too excited. it came in slightly weaker than expected. >> in terms of his policies, it sounds like you're banking on the hope that his friend won't be completed. on the flip side of that coin, are you on the idea that he will get corporate tax reform? it seems like you can't have it both ways. you can't think he will get good
things done and the bad things not done. >> donald trump made something like 700 promises in 600 days on the campaign trail. so maybe it is too early to say. so some of them can do better if the federal reserve raises rates. the fact that the dollar has weakened and if it stops moving up, that will help corporate profits. so there are plenty of things on look at besides what's going on with the policy. you're right. if protectionism increases and it strengthens the dollar, that could start to impact earnings. >> all right. thank you. but this is something that we're really grappling with in terms of having a protectionist
agenda. hoping he gets certain parts of his agenda done and other parts not accomplished. >> if you listen to mark, he is talking about earnings being a key here. and i think we're hoping that we're hoping, that we will justify it. i heard something where the president was talking with the dollar again. the dollar needs to get weaker or people are ma nip laigt. this isn't helping the dollar. it traded well through. if you think about what is pushing the multinationals, this may be very good news. and maybe quietly or not quietly. he may be sending a mention. >> last day of january. the dollar index is down 2.5%. >> and that has been my biggest concern. if you get a very strong dollar, that is a head wind for everything. we've had a bit of a correct here.
it could probably go lower. you give me a stable to weakish dollar and stable rates. they can rise a little bit. gently. you do guy dips. >> i would add one point. i don't know why it is a given. i don't know if they're pro business yet. i understand the whole notion of cutting taxes and the repatriation. look what he's doing. he's strong arming the biggest american businesses here in one of the best capitalistic societies we've ever had on the planet. i'm not so sure he is pro business. tinlds pro growth. the idea of strengthening the dollar. >> protectionism and tax cuts are two things that i'm not sure go well together. when you talk about taxes, i think this is unequivocally very bullish for growth we've been asking what they're waiting for. they were waiting for an administration challenge to
invest. >> that's the conversation we've had. >> we saw the first pulse of volatility. hit to do with the uncertainty he is posing. the people that are protesting in the streets. it will go on this way. >> this is the uncertainty. >> there is controversial stuff going on. to see the market pulling back. in total about, 150 with no volatility i think is -- >> my point is that the market participant are not having any rick right now. >> it shouldn't be the purview of the sitting president to talk about the currency manipulation of different sovereign nations. germany, china, japan. that really should be the president's bailey wick and he seems to do it, it seems to be more often than not. that sort of scares me. at certain points, somebody or some nation will call him on it. still ahead, apple shares still on the move in the
the ceo from apple joins us with the very latest. josh? >> well, on the conference call, the ceo tim cook saying iphone had in his opinion a tremendous quarter. especially with the demand for the iphone 7 plus. it was the highest proportion of mix than any plus model ever. he also piftd quickly to talk about the services business. take listen. >> it was our best ever with almost $2 billion in revenue. app store customers broke almost all records including $3 billion in purchases in december alone. making it the app store's single best month ever. >> and cook reiterated, the
services revenue will be a fortune 100 company this year. he said apple expects to double size over the next four years. i did also check briefly with cook about what he thought about some of the potential new economic policies that could be coming at us, about repatriation, for example. no surprise they have 2 million plus. about the border tax being debated. he said would it hit the middle class consumer and he suggested he would be surprised if that was enacted. he also reacted, that trump has gone after apple in a lot of companies and industries to bring more jobs home. cook saying everyone has to do their fair share. he is saying they can do that without starting trade wars. certainly the components of the iphone. finally, the trade tensions, cook saying that is not good
news. the and u.s. china need each other. tend world needs the u.s. and china. >> staying on "fast money," the form he apple ceo joins us with reaction. did anything concern you at all? >> well, i think tim cook had a great quarter. he is truly one of the great. crop. the panel listened to it. you went through all the key observation that's an investor would want to know about apple. i think president trump has said that he would pivot the country from a focus on globalization to a focus on america first.
silicon valley is ground zero. what more to focus on than apple. it is the large esst market sha. i'm sure there will be a lot of focus by the president talking to tim cooke, you have to show that you can build products in the united states. we now know that supply chains are changing rapidly all over the world. some things are being made in india now. some things are being made in vietnam and mexico. i suspect there will be a lot of attention by the president. he picks companies out to say tim cook. you have to be the role model for reinventing the supply chain and bringing back to america products being made here. >> should investors be concerned about being the poster child of the tech industry? >> i don't think so. i think you have one of the best
leaders in the world. you have plenty of capital. you have a relationship with fox could have been. >> won't it cost more money? if the average selling price was $695, which is a record. isn't that only december continued to go much, much higher? >> i'm not sure that -- i'm not an expert on the pricing. i don't follow it that way. but i don't think it is price sensitive. i think people love the iphone. we're in the biggest refresh psych people any product ever had. so i don't think it is price sensitive. i think it makes a difference if apple can show it is a different way to approaching the economy. >> but they should be kind of concerned. we know iphone is much higher and we know if they were to be that example they won't be able
to be made. the bigger issue, isn't that it the next layer of growth for phones is outside the united states. we don't really have to make them here and ship them out. especially if we're about to be in a massive trade war. >> that's a good point. pall is ma apple is making a big bet. they'll be manufacturing more products there. when i say just the supply chain, it is not that you have to move the entire supply chain. that's not realistic. we don't have all the parts to be able to make all these products. it will start with final assembly. then you'll see more and more products being made buy nations and you will see the supply chain moving here and you will see it moving to other parts of the world, too. look at brazil. look at india.
look at southeast asia. tim cook is one of those who really understands how the run a supply chain. >> so it is okay for apple. i think it will be heavy lifting but they're okay to do it. >> john skulley, former ceo of apple. are you surprised on where it is trading? >> no. i think it will levitate. i think your question is interesting. you can see president trump tomorrow saying, record, here's a great american company that can bring jobs back. that would not be a bullish headline. >> if trump comes out and tweets specifically at apple. i think that's your buying opportunity. two things. you look at all the other stocks he's done that to. they ultimately recover. and then number two, people are focused on the refresh cycle.
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welcome back to "fast money." all eyes on facebook. the big question is whether or not it can keep up its growth. >> the bar is quite high to show that it can keep on growing engagement and the ad dollars despite measurement snafus. they're looking for revenue growth and 66% in earnings per share, driven in part by instagram. up 71% over the past two years. analysts will be for commentary on the video advertising strategy. how it will make more money on emerging markets on the higher operating expenses ask the impact of the intense political news cycle. people want to see what's going on but it annoys people to see
the comary on one side or the other. i don't know how they'll handle it. >> going into earnings, analysts are bullish. they recommend a buy or strong buy with only one analyst giving it an underperform or sell rating. what's the action looking like? >> it is looking pretty hot. they have a combined capitalization of $765 billion. the options market for a 5% move in either direction. that's about $20 billion. 7.5% for amazon. bls 5%. it has moved 5.8% over the last four quarters. so there's some big moves implied here. one of the things that's interesting about both companies, when they reported their q 3s, both companies, both
stocks sold off 5% and then continued to go lower. the stocks really didn't get out of the doldrums until the start of the year. one of the things that's interesting. look at this. just last week, it got back to that prior high. it failed there. there's pretty obvious support from that january bounce level. the same thing for facebook. it got right back up there. it has failed there. it has some great support back to where it bounced from. i would say that universal bullishness, there's no neutral ratings. obviously controversial. obviously high valuations. i don't think it makes a lot of sense. i know you're going to the geniuses over there to take a position here. >> all right. i'm going to ask that question one of these -- what did he say? >> no. he said geniuses. >> but he really meant clowns. anyway, brian kelly -- >> to head genius. >> she said clowns.
a final check on munster. >> i'm going with a w plus. it is better than what was first reported. apple is 500% year over year. look out pay pal. >> b plus. final trade time. >> for the geniuses on the desk, i would same to me i think you take ups's weak know. fedex is a world class company. buy that dip. >> it you want to be in this copper space. that's the way you want to play it. >> xlv. we were talking about positioning before. >> what's the most in college? don't lie. >> c. >> what class? >> organic chemistry.
that's why i'm not a doctor. >> look at the reversal today there. >> our thanks to gene munster for manning the red phone. see you tomorrow at 5:00. matt "mad money" starts now. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but educate and teach you so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. you heard the slogan make love not war.