tv Squawk Box CNBC February 3, 2017 6:00am-9:01am EST
do it. it is jobs friday, february 3, 2017. and "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." ♪ good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc, we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and steve liesman. andrew ross sorkin will be joining us later this morning. as joe mentioned, it's jobs friday. non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 174,000 following an increase of 156,000 back in december. unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.7%. average hourly earnings are seen rising by 0.3%. the u.s. equity futures, i think it's a mixed picture. s&p futures up by a point, the
dow up by 24 points. the nasdaq down by 9. things barely budged yesterday. the dow down by six points, so was the nasdaq. the s&p up by 1 point. in asia, the shanghai reopening lower after a week-long hol did. in europe, some early trading, at this point, you will see that there are some green arrows. looks like the cac is the best f performer. among the top stories, shares of amazon sinking following the e-commerce giant's earnings report. reporting a 55% rise in fourth quarter profit but revenues missed estimates and the current quarter guidance was weaker than expected. we'll talk to an amazon analyst in a few minutes. visa's first quarter profit and revenue topped forecast as more people made payments using its card network. the acquisition of visa europe helped to drive transactions.
the company says it continues to benefit from costco's switch from american express to visa co-branded credit cards last year. visa sees revenue rising 16% to 18%. the parent of snapchat lifting the curtain on its highly anticipated initial public offering. snap inc's debut could be the largest since alibaba's more than two years ago. it is expected to see a valuation between 20 billion and $25 billion according to the "wall street journal." the offering will seek to raise $3 billion. more on this story from julia boorstin in just a minute. >> they would have roughly $5 billion if they come at the high end of the valuation. >> i say six guys with three computers in a room, and you're worth $25 billion. that's the economy today. there's no jobs, there's no
capital -- some capital investment. >> they're losing $500 million a year at this point. there's a lot of capital investment. >> but you don't need big machines. it's not heavily intensive when it comes to -- >> not an industrial thing. >> not a lot of jobs, but it's tremendous valuation. >> eamon javers is going to be with us, because president trump is moving to scale back dodd-frank. the 2010 financial overall bill. that's a regulatory framework put in faplace after the financl crisis. if i had to pick a lead story. is saying that israel shouldn't continue to have a lot of settlements, and saying maybe sanctions on iran, is that going back to obama? is that the lead, going back to obama's policy or does the "journal" have it right, it's a stark not going along with the -- would you lead with the dodd-frank thing? would you lead that we warned israel not to -- i don't
understand. any way. go ahead. >> i'll do any of those stories you want to do on the settlements issue. >> that's been years -- how long has that been american policy? 40 years, right? >> i don't know if you're saying if that's reverting to obama policy or american policy of which obama espoused also. it's not donald trump carving out some entirely new path for himself on foreign policy. that's for sure. for financial folks, this issue on dodd-frank could be one of the more significant moves of the day. we'll see a couple of actions today from the trump white house, from the president signing an executive order and presidential memorandum. this is the executive order this directs the treasury secretary to review actions taken by the dodd-frank law on the volcker rule. a senior official briefing reporters last night said he felt that the u.s. government
had not dong enough on too big to fail banks, taxpayer bailouts, freddie mac and fannie mae, but the executive order directs the treasury secretary to figure out what can be done with executive action. it doesn't mandate any particular outcome. the senior administration official saying we'll go out and examine what can be done here. the treasury secretary will report back to the president on that one. here's the presidential memorandum this one is different. this one targets specifically the fiduciary rule. it detects the labor department to review and defer implementation of the upcoming fiduciary rule, scheduled to go into effect this spring. the trump administration's argument here, joe, is that the fiduciary rule, even though it's intended to protect consumers, intended to make sure investment managers have a fiduciary responsibility to customers, instead their argument is that it simply limited consumer choice too much and forced people into low-cost products
when maybe that's not the best product for that particular consumer. so sort all that out, whether that will be seen as a populous movement by the trump administration or benefiting wall street and the big banks. the politics of that are still to come but it might be lost in the discussion of the other issues you're talking about. >> you can skew it the way you want, eamon. to say, you know, consumers should be able to buy things that are not really good for them that benefit the financial advisor, if they want to, because they should have that choice to buy crappy stuff -- >> this is a tough one. >> defenders of the fiduciary rule say it prevents your investment manager from hiding conflicts of interest, from hiding fees, all that. all of that needs to be disclosed to the consumer. the critics of the fiduciary rule say the safe harbor, the default setting is the lowest cost. >> the cheapest is not always the best.
pu t but the idea that you're rolling back a rule that says you have to act in the best interest of your client, that would seem like, are you kidding me? it's taken us this long to get to this point? >> the question is why is that a bad idea? because you want the bankers to hide the fees? >> no, because i want to buy an 18 ounce soda. if i want an 18-ounce soda, if i want up with, i don't want to have to buy two nine-ounce soda. >> this was a cause celebo of anthony scaramucci, he was going to take the valerie jarrett job inside this white house and be a liaison to the business community. this has been one of his bet causes. he has been advocating for rolling back the fiduciary rules for a while. now he may not get that job at all.
figure all that out. >> i may be reporting on the mechanics of changing dodd-frank. i think it's well to point out a couple things. the first is that dodd-frank was passed by congress and probably cannot be wholly repealed by the executive branch. >> not even close to wholly repealed. >> and it's implemented through a series of inner agency agreements by regulators including the federal reserve. and the other thing, which is more complicating, a lot to of the stuff that goes along with it, people think of it resulting from dodd-frank has nothing to do with dodd-frank. like stress tests, some capital requirements as well. they come from the fed's authority over the responsibility of the safety and soundness of the banking system. it's very complicated. markets can get ahead of themselves thinking this order means that dodd-frank is going away. i don't think it is very quickly certainly. >> excellent point, steve. remember after they passed dodd
france in 2010, i was there that midnight session when barney frank rammed this through in an all-night session of congress. it took them years of that. the law passed in 2010, but it was years and years and years of regulatory rule making after that. the obama administration was widely criticized for not moving fast enough for sort of drowning in the regulatory process and not being able to issue regs as fast as they had billed their actions. it won't be an overnight thing to repeal it. even if they get legislation on capitol hill. that is a very tough thing to do. you remember how difficult it was when democrats controlled things. it will be difficult for the republicans if they decide to roll back dodd-frank entirely. even once they do that, it will take years to unwind some of these regulations deep inside the bureaucracy, these things don't move as fast as white house's want them to. >> eamon, thank you. >> you bet. >> we'll check on the shifrsare a couple of big banks
pre-market. a bit of an effect we're seeing on some of those. >> it's a good sign. it's a good sign if you're lhig on the banks and high on deregulation for the banks, you're double high on the bank . as george carlin would say. >> i just watched him the other night. i like the stuff. you boy stuff with stuff, and stuff it into something el. >> joe has been toying with the seven words you can't say on tv. >> shih-tzu. >> the news of the roll back comes on a day when donald trump will meet executives at the white house, among them jamie dimon, jenny rometty, larry fink
will be there. this will be chaired by steve schwarzman. that metering will focus on economic issues, regulation, women in the work force, taxes and infrastructure. andrew is there, he will report in later this morning. >> is he there as part of the panel -- >> you think he got to travis already? >> do you think he will say look at what travis kalanick has done, don't you think shoe -- >> he will focus on the agenda. >> under his breath, it may be the undercurrent. what are you -- >> no. >> no? >> no. i don't think so. as joe was mentioning, there will be one notable absence there today, travis kalanick, the chief executive of uber. he removed himself from trump's group saying he will not attend the meeting following the immigration ban. there were some questions there. he said people thought it looked like he was endorsing the
president by being on that. >> brave. brave. >> snap inc filing for its long awaited ipo after the bell. julia breaks down the big numbers and the big risks. good morning. >> good morning. snap growing fast. last year's revenue $405 million almost seven times higher than revenue in 2015. it's 158 million daily users are addict addicted, visiting more than 18 times daily and spending 25 to 30 minutes on it a day. after growing fast in the first half of the year on new products, user growth is slowing from 7% from the second to third quarter to just 3% from the third to the fourth quarter. the company is not profitable. losing $515 million last year. snap faces some big rivals, naming apple, facebook, instagram, what's app and twitter among others and names a range of risks. the majority of users are 18 to 24, a demographic that snap
acknowledges is less brand loyal and more likely to follow trends and shareholders won't get a voice. the voting control of the two co-founders won't be diluted. the class "a" shares issued in the ipo won't have voting rights. snap saying they're not aware of any other company completing an ipo of non-voting stock. while facebook shareholders get a vote, the company is still controlled by its founder. >> another story we've been talking about is travis kalanick leaving the trump advisory council. >> it's different to see the different approaches kalanick and musk are taking. kalanick's decision to leave the advisory council which he lays out in a letter to employees is response to the social medium meme, #deleteuber. users of uber were upset because it seemed like the company was
trying to profit from protests taking place at airports last week. kalanick said though he was not trying to endorse the president's policies by participating in the council, that was the perception. he said his -- he's been misinterpreted and there was an assumption that uber was endorsing the administration, and that created a perception reality gap. you have elon musk taking a different tactic. he issued a statement yesterday saying that he does not necessarily endorse the president's policies, but he's really maintaining his role in this council to have a voice and it's important to have a voice at the table. i thought it was interesting that musk tweeted out to his followers, soliciting their opinions. so he could take those voices and represent them to the council on this controversial immigration issue. >> i guess it comes down to business. if you feel like your business is being hurt as a result, that's a reason he wouldn't step
up to the plate and stay on the council. >> yeah. i think he thought his business was being hurt. and it's pretty remarkable when you have a #deleteuber campaign. i would be curious to know how many people deleted the app from their phone, stopped using it. >> if you base what you do on facebook or twitter -- we're talking about the president who is controlling a lot of economic policy, to not have a voice at the table, it's just -- i understand it. >> the berkeley riots. >> i wouldn't let my kids wear a trump button or make america great again. the tolerant left might pepper spray my kids. so i'm probably not going to allow that to happen, julia. thank you. you have to be -- you have to worry. you could get bloodied if you wear a trump hat. >> forgot your shirt again. >> get me my i'm with -- that will yoffset it.
no one throwsin eggs at me for wearing i'm with her shirts. we see a lot of people from the heartland use pepper spray and have anarchy and set cars on fire. happens a lot. let's look at market expectations for the jobs report. joining us is alison deanz who is finally saying some of these policies -- you don't like trump much, but you're saying it could be positive for the market at this point down the road. >> the last time i was on the show, i said something similar. so finally is unfair. lindsay piezz is also here. last time what i remember more than anything is that the -- the economy was set up for success long before trump got here. this is just a continuation of it. that's been your take on things. >> i thought the economy is doing well. i acknowledge that deregulation would be positive for the
market. that changing tax policy would be positive. i was concerned about potential trade wars. and thought that could make a big difference on the market, not the u.s. economy but the market. >> is the economy doing well? what was that gdp number? what was that? >> i think it's -- continued improvement. >> continued improvement? we've been at 1.6 for eight years. >> we're seeing pick up now. >> we haven't seen the gdp number yet where we're seeing pick up? >> no, but we're hearing better jobs growth. >> we've had false starts before. >> yeah. >> where are you on this? >> i think we're still seeing a moderate economy. fourth quarter gdp of 1.9%. for the year, 1.9%. >> 1.6 is the year over year. >> when we talk about job growth, the key number for
today. job growth has been moderate. the average pace in 2016 was just 180,000. that's down from 230 the year prior and 250,000 in 2014. we have not seen this pick up we're waiting for. adp reported a strong number in january, but they tend to err on the side of the upside. they missed to the upside 8 out of the 12 months last year. so adp is not a great indication of turning tides. still talking about negative business investment, manufacturing sort of coming back. so this recovery is very modest to say the least. >> but the adp report -- >> pretty strong. >> yeah. >> the private business. >> it's very tight -- been very tight to the bls number. >> what about the adp report, what is that indicating? >> 246,000. >> the dow jones did not change their forecast because they don't do it dynamically during the week. we went back and we looked at it. we contacted 13 economists
forecasters. and their consensus is 193,000, 20,000 more than what's out there in the regular consensus. these people alter their forecasts in the wake of adp. >> are there no workers to be had? or if you have the skills can you find a job? there's all these conflicting narratives. and zandi the other day, he got the best number of his life and was still hanged on. >> he said this is -- >> why was he hanged on? >> you have a reason. >> there's plenty of reasons for that. before if it was 110, it's a great number. now if we do that number, no, it's a downshift. >> he said it is a worker's market. it will be harder and harder to find jobs. >> he said it's still gloomy, we're at 150,000, not 200,000. >> but we're seeing a wage growth, a pick up. the wage growth is what the
federal reserve has been looking at. that has been steadily improving. job growth has been volatile, but it's been volatile around an upward trend and now consumer spending is picking up. we're seeing indicators that things are getting better. >> one problem with wage growth, it's been segmented to isolated areas of the labor market. areas where specific skills are in high demand but low supplies. craft labor, engineering, i.t., accounting. this is where we see the wage growth. but stepping back and looking at the aggregate across the service sector, we're not seeing that pick up in wages. so some consumers are faring better, but the average household is not feeling additional wealth in their pockets. >> there's no pressure to increase minimum wage. >> 17 states had increases in minimum wage in january. so the question is you get the one-time bump from the minimum wage increase, does that continue? we're looking for actual wage growth based on things like
productivity. >> the numbers for the full year. >> right. >> >> great, lindsay, thank you. alison, we'll keep having you on. you will be so excited. a year from now, you'll be like, oh, my god. i can't believe this. it's going to be good. >> depends. i do balance it with social issues. >> oh. >> you almost got out of here. >> yeah. all right. >> thank you both. >> thank you. shares of amazon falling this morning after the retail giant's ref knew avenue and gui came in aftshort of expectation. atons e stknanasty suar tisyocsce,realearnvnvde stitton.n. wher e heu e.
welcome back. amazon shares under pressure after fourth quarter revenue fell short of expectations. first quarter revenue guidance also came in below estimates. earnings of $1.54 a share beat the street by a mile, 19 cents. joining us is bob durgel, and, bob, if you looked at the bottom line number, it was great. revenue came in light.
is that worth the selloff that we've seen in the stock? >> i think expectations were high for the top line, for the retail component. when we look at the retail numbers that have come through, there's been an expectation that amazon really dominated. >> right. >> so i think from our perspective we would all love to have amazon's problems with the level of growth they're seeing. it was a bit lighter than we expected. but it really is far from a thesis changing result. >> why were the sales numbers light? it didn't look like the company was offering as many marked downs as we had seen at other traditional retailers. >> i think the unit growth, paid unit growth went from 28% down to 24%. and i think from our perspective, when you look at it, that was probably one factor around it. it was a tougher environment. i think the spending environment really didn't materialize to the
expectations and as we saw it progressing. >> it sounds like you think the selloff is warranted. it's a big round dollar number in terms of how much the stock is down. it's 3.8%. >> i think overall, when you look at the didn't components, north america still was very, very strong. the international piece has really -- the growth has accelerated and remains healthy. aws came in light. we see some amazon reports where you get better top line, better aws, better margins. this one, the manufacturgins ca through well, but the top line came in for the multiple of the stock and expectations, the groe growth that is expected from this company -- >> going back to what you said earlier, what was the year over year growth in revenue? >> 22%. >> they were expecting 24%. so they grew by 22% more revenue, which was both a
function of them taking market share from other people and is the stock based on a multiple of revenue growth in the 30s? >> no. we expect it to be better than that. let's call it 24, 25. we expected the retail component roughly 28% growth. it came in 25% growth. international was 24. still a healthy number. but a few points lighter than really what had been the trend. >> it is trading at 176 times forward pe. you're talking about some lofty valuations. >> we would also -- i think the stock can be valued on almost like a sum of the parts analysis, you take the three components, you look at the north american -- >> retail, web services. >> and international. yes. and the way we look at it, retail maybe a 17 multiple times the forward number, aws, 18
times. and north america growing off of a depressed base. >> do you buy the stock today? >> we do our target remains 950. from the forecast and the future, we still have 20% growth in '17 and '18, and higher growth in the aws piece of it. >> thanks for joining us. coming up, advertisers gearing up for the super bowl. wpp has four ads during sunday's game at $5 million a pop. the company's ceo, sir martin sorrel, he's a sir, he will join us after the break. here's a look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers. >> it was wonderful. >> bravo. >> i loved it. >> it was great. >> was pretty good. >> it wasn't bad. >> it could have been bad. >> i didn't like it.
♪ welcome back. you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. good morning. welcome back. it is friday morning. last trading day of the week. we have jobs friday coming up. jobs number coming up. futures ahead of that are mixed. dow up by 44 points. s&p futures up by close to 3. nasdaq down by 5. president trump just tweeting iran is playing with fire. they don't appreciate how kind president obama was to them.
not me. >> sanctions -- we can't get that money back. >> no. it was like $150 billion. >> yes. >> that indicates a bit of kindness, i think. cruel to be kind. you know that song, right? >> more uncertainty, joe. >> sir martin is here. super bowl weekend, people around the country are getting ready to tune in for the big event. not the game. the commercials. >> a half billion spent. >> you like football, don't you sir martin sorrel? >> yes, i do. >> i was kidding wilfred about it, some people who are soccer fans see 52 points scored -- >> but world cup generates about $1.5 billions of advertising, but that's over four years. not dissimilar to this weekend. >> dollars per point scored. much better in soccer.
>> per goal. >> what is the latest thinking, i saw earlier commercials going viral. that's not viral. they're doing this. >> it reflects -- generating buzz and reflects the changing audience or nature of the audience. >> that the way you have to do it? >> that's the way you have to do it. create the pregame buzz, in-game buzz and -- >> you do by letting people see it? . >> look at the audiences, there's a controversy as to whether audiences are falling. my suspicion is audiences are rising because of alternative screens and alternative ways of viewing. i was watching the olympics, i watched it off -- perish the thought, the bbc website. so i watched mo farrah win his gold medal on the website. so creating the buzz before, they'll be spending that 500 million, 450 million is our
forecast. 49 minutes of commercials. the cost of the commercial, 30 seconds, has gone from $2.3 million, this year about $5 million. >> have you had any clients say that what is ailing the nfl this year? >> to be fair, audiences have improved. there's been one or two other things going on, we noticed. >> but will this once again establish this is the big egest- >> this is the premiere event. the olympics was $2 billion spent. so roughly the same. if you take it on a four-year cycle. >> but the demise of nfl is greatly exaggerated. >> greatly exaggerated. baseball, nba, they generated about $370 million. you had seven days, so very attractive. but the super bowl last year,
370 million. does it matter the teams? >> i'm not an expert, joe is the expert, but if it was the packers versus the patriots or cowboys versus the patriots, might have been different. but you look at the odds in vegas, three-point spread. >> and two great quarterbacks. >> so -- >> we'll see. >> it's fun to talk about president trump and the sensitivity to branding. i was ribbing you a bit here. you say there is heightened sensitivity over branding, but the flip side is that clients are feeling optimistic. >> to be fair, he's only putting in what he said he would put in. what we voted for or part of the electorate voted for, he is implementing. >> you're worried about europe? >> i'm worried about
international. >> does le pen have a chance? >> as a result of what happened to fillon recently, yes. we did a pole -- >> unbelievable big deal. self destructing. >> he said trust me, this is not what it looked like. >> we issued a poll the night before last in france, fillon was still 21%. macron was at 21%, he will pen at 25%. in the first round, probably le pen wins. in the second round, the 21 and the 21 will coalesce one way or the other, and probably the other candidate -- >> you never said that about trump, when you add ted cruz and marco rubio together -- >> it's very difficult to predict. you're right. a lot of uncertainty in italy, a lot of uncertainty in holland, a lot to of uncertainty in germany, too. the whole political dynamic is extremely uncertain. >> are you more optimistic about brexit? the strongest economy in europe now.
you're waiting for the day of reckoning? >> not the day of reckoning. >> prove you were right all along. >> you're putting me in the same boat as others, like the bank of england? our numbers to be fair in the third and fourth quarter in the uk have been strong. looking at the budgets for 2017 for the uk looks good western continental europe looks okay. germany is very strong, joe. having said that, there is a considerable degree of uncertainty. coming back to the trump point, what you gain on the u.s. swings you may lose on the international. >> trump issued some other tweets. yes, arnold schwarzenegger did a bad job as governor of california but even worse on "the apprentice." and thank you to the prime minister of australia for telling the truth about our civil conversation that the fake news media lied about. anyone thinking he would
moderate his tone, does it matter? >> it's consistent at least. predictable. >> the australia thing was interesting. did you look at it? >> i did it was done after the election. election was finished. it was a week after. so the australian gentleman knew full well, what the president-elect's notions were about immigration. >> about the deal. >> about the deal. it was done a week later. obama liked doing things the last couple of months. >> isn't this the art of the deal? you throw a grenade in and see what happens. >> you know how to do that. don't act like you're some -- you don't throw stones. >> i wish. >> where you are? how do you get to be a sir? the art of the deal to be a sir. >> you try and build a business over 31 years, 32 years. that's what you do. you're successful. >> sort of. >> down downplay who you are.
>> english modesty. what about snap? >> snap? >> yeah. we spent about $90 million last year, revenue about 400 million. a quarter of what they spent. >> they have to be nice to you. >> no, they don't have to be nice, but google, we invested about $5 billion. facebook about 1.7 billion. a lot of room for snap to develop or snapchat to develop beyond that. >> all right. you're on a losing streak, you owe me two -- >> 2 for 2. i won two obamas, you won a brexit and a trump. we're even steven. i owe you dinner. you are on a roll. sir martin, thank you. >> we'll have a play date, becky? >> yes. >> all right. >> wow. >> our babies look the same. >> god. >> when we come back, ceos --
>> joe is just jealous. >> you're 72. you have a 3-month-old. i am jealous. you're the man. when we come back, we'll be talking about jobs. ceos doing business under president trump. the chief executive will join us in a few minutes. that company is the biggest distributor of medical supplies to dentists and veterinarians. and then mike jackson joins us first on cnbc. at 8:30, the number we're all waiting for, we will bring you the january jobs report. the market reaction and instant analysis, all of it right here on cnbc. myins s but t bugrowgy
are being crafted now. shares of gopro getting slammed. the company posting weaker than expected sales for the latest quarter and releasing a soft outlook for the current period. gopro blaming the wider losses on a $102 million charge and a $37 million charge tied to restructuring costs. chipotle's quarterly earnings coming up short on wall street. the burrito chain sales falling during q 4, but expects same-store sales to rebound this year. >> i haven't had one. what's a burrito chain? >> i don't know. but my son loves chipotle. >> just goes on and on? like a bunch of burritos attached? >> you get that for the super bowl. >> a burrito chain. you're right. like a big subway sandwich. >> lost my mind. let's read about amgen.
posting a higher than expected fourth quarter profit. sales of a rheumatoid arthritis drug driving the product. coming up, president trump's impact on american business. we'll check in with the ceo of henry schein, the world's biggest supplier to dentists and veterinarians. in europe, looks like they're to the upside. 0.24% in the german dax. 0.55% in the ftse. and 0.82 in france. s traver mi tothouous ofil
welcome back. president trump is taking a tough stance on trade and globalization. joining us now to talk more about the impact on protectionism on business, ceo of henry shine. he's ringing the opening bell today at the nasdaq to celebrate the 15th anniversary of the american dental association's give kids a smile program. stan, thanks for joining us. just put together the dentistry
and veterinarian thing. >> we're the largest provider to dentists, veterinarians, and physicians outside of the hospital. >> let's talk about the trade programs out there. the studies that we've connected here at cnbc show people love the trump programs. tax cuts, deregulation, business tax cuts. they hate the trade part of it. is there a better story here to tell about it? >> i think free trade has resulted in a better world for 200 years. 200 years ago, 80% of the world's population lived in poverty. today it's reversed, although too many people still live in poverty. the key thing has been the free market has driven economic growth, and we need to have free markets with free trade. having said that, american companies should be treated equally abroad. if we allow -- if goods are allowed into our country without taxes, we should be allowed to send our products into other countries without taxes, and regulation should, in fact, be equal throughout the world.
>> so you're in favor of renegotiating some of these deals? >> i'm in favor of ensuring american companies are treated fairly throughout the world and that regulation is applied equally around the world so that we can send our goods into every country around the world that we allow -- >> but hold on. what evidence is there that we're not treated fairly? >> we find challenges in many parts of the world. >> give me an example of that. >> i wouldn't want to pick any particular country today on this program, but having said that, there are many countries in the world where we allow their goods into this country with very few regulations, very, very few -- >> you really doubt that, steve? >> i think the whole concept is based on a false premise, joe. >> i know you do. you've never been in business. you've never been a ceo. you've never run a company. >> it has nothing to do with any of that, joe. if you want to talk about it, we can talk about it, joe. we want to interview him. >> i would defer to somebody who's actually done it. >> some of our friends don't
allow our goods into their country without taxes, where we allow their goods in here. they regulate us where we don't regulate them. wi >> we had a guy on from cato. what matters here is what's the taxation when we ship something to germany, how is our product taxed versus the competitor's product in germany. and how is the german exporter's product taxed here in the united states versus a u.s. domestic competitor. that's the equalization that matters. >> steve, that is correct. >> thank you. >> and we, having said that, we allow goods in from other countries with very little taxes, and when we want to send our goods into these countries, we're taxed and regulated. >> how often do we dump things, stan? >> the u.s. very rarely dumps. we're a free market. we have to defend ourselves. we don't get subsidies. >> tpp was going to equalize
regulation in different countries. >> i'm not an expert on tpp, but we need a free market for a level playing field for every company. >> i want to talk about something else you've written about, which i think is really important, which is in notion of free trade has helped a lot of people come out of poverty. it's also created a lot of discontent and left a lot of people behind. what should be done about that? >> the challenge we have today, steve, is a result of what many call the fourth industrial revolution. the first was, as we know, the opening -- moving of people from the rural setting to the urban setting. the second was the production lines, the ford. the third was when we introduced pcs and cell phones in the late '70s. we now have an environment of intraoperaability, an environment of connectivity to everything. the challenge is many people are not capable of operating in this environment, and we need to ensure that our population is capable of operating in an environment of interoperability.
that's where government needs to help. . >> trouble is a lot of the help the government has tried to give, a lot of these federal retraining programs have been proven to not be very effective. are there other ideas out there? >> the concept is a good one. it's like health care reform. the notion of providing everyone with a primary care physician is a good one. the question is how is it administered. medicare is a good program. we can debate whether it's administered properly or not. these programs are good ideas. it's all in the administration. >> you've also talked a lot about technology coming into the medical business. that's like a fourth technology revolution. >> yes. today everything is intraoperable. everything is digitalized. your health care experience three years from now will be completely different to what it is today. in dentistry, for example, you can go into a dentist, have your mouth scanned. you don't need impress material. >> give me 15 seconds. sorry, we're out of time. give kids a smile. how many kids have you helped? >> we've helped millions of children access a primary care
dentist or a specialty dentist in this country. today, over 300,000 children this weekend will be able to access a dentist through 20,000 health care volunteers in this country. >> stan, thanks for coming in. >> you've seen welch come in with concrete examples of regulations that affect small businesses. journalists look at him and go, are there really? or dodd-frank. they show -- he shows concrete examples of what actually happens. the journalist is like, geez, i had no idea. >> joe, that doesn't have to do with anything. i was talking about this issue of equivalence. >> i'm just talking about guys that are doing it know exactly what's happening in the world. >> he agreed with me, joe. he disagrees with you now. >> right. coming up, the jobs countdown is on. top economists from bank of america give us their predictions. ifn eltr ru rll auy enissa i i..
president trump's first jobs report. economists looking for another solid month of jobs growth. what you can expect at 8:30 and what it means for your portfolio, straight ahead. trumponomics. autonation ceo mike jackson talks results and the border tax debate. >> plus, will advertisers score big this sunday? >> we believe in -- ellie gonzalez. hi. >> hey. >> want to pet my roo? >> sure. >> we'll hear from the ceo worldwide ad agency on the ad impact as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the beating heart of business, new york city, this is "squawk box."
good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and steve liesman. it is jobs friday here. check this out. here are the futures ahead of this. mixed picture with the dow futures looking like it would open up by about 40 points. this comes after a relatively flat day yesterday. in europe this morning, we are seeing some green arrows. the cac is the biggest gainer. the ftse is up by half a percent. if you want to look at the ten-year note, you'll see that the yields this morning -- ten year is yielding 2.485%. steve? >> all right. here's what's making headlines this morning. president trump issuing new executive orders this morning. he's ordered a review of the rules implemented by both dodd-frank and the volcker rule. another order delays the implementation of the so-called
fiduciary rule. and apple has finalized a deal to make iphones in india for that market. apple had been in negotiations with the indian government. officials seeking various concessions and tax breaks. production is expected to begin in june. and the january jobs report is getting the bulk of investor attention today. two other reports will also be out at 10:00 eastern time. we'll get both december factory orders and the ism's january nonmanufacturing index. that is a measure of the service sector of the economy. joe? >> thank you. >> you're welcome. >> you were telling viewers, but you just -- that was like -- i was looking at -- >> you can't tell, can you? >> don't, don't. i see. >> people just think you're crazy, steve. >> me? >> well, it's my twitter followers. >> and my followers think you're crazy. >> you know it's self-selecting.
>> i thought this was the way most people thought. >> right. okay. i'll get myself in trouble. a few stocks on the move this morning. shares of amazon sinking following the e-commerce giant's report. the company posting a 55% rise in fourth quarter profit. the current quarter guidance was weak. shares of gopro getting slammed, posting weaker than expected sales and releasing a soft outlook for the current period. gopro blaming the wider losses on a tax related $2 million charge and $7 million charge tied to restructuring costs. chipotle's quarterly results coming up short of wall street targets. steve, it's not a burrito chain. i thought you said sales of burrito chains were falling. >> burrito chain sales. >> we're calling chipotle a
burrito chain. >> i thought they had this big thing. >> like a burrito train. better than a burrito chain. the burrito chain sales falling 4.8% during the fourth quarter, but it expects same-store sales to rebound likely this year. >> the parent of snapchat lifting the curtain on its highly anticipated initial public offering. snap, inc. the company's debut could be the largest since alibaba's more than two years ago. it's expected a valuation of $20 billion to $25 billion. it is jobs friday. it's the first of donald trump's presidency. steve has a preview of what we can expect. >> this is cute. you have an intro introducing our co-host. >> i'm going to turn around and become the reporter now.
>> that was really cool. will you do that for me? >> sure. joe, will you tell us what you're reading on twitter. >> look, there's two kinds of economists in the world today. those who believe in the adp jobs report and those who don't. the believers think the number could be north of 200,000. the nonbelievers are in the 175 and lower range. here's the expectations. 174 from the dow jones with the unemployment rate of 4.7%. we polled 13 economists and they're at 193. wages expected to be up 0.3%. that's a healthy number. and there's that adp number coming in very strong at 246. it's been running close to the bls number of late. off by about 22,000 plus or minus on average this year. goldman sachs says its research shows large surprises in adp can be predictive. rdq says they don't know what to do or make of the adm model. you could pick your favorite economist and go with them.
pantheon on the high side of 230. morgan stanley upped their forecast to 220. barclays at 175. bank of america, who is on set here, 160. so that's what we have, guys. it's a market out there today. fairly wide range. that's because of the disagreement over what to do with adp. >> let's talk more about what investors can expect, where the market may be headed. for that, we bring in the aforementioned michelle meyer, the head of u.s. economics at bank of america, merrill lynch. let me ask you two. your number is 160. is that right, michelle? >> my number pre-adp is 160. we did not revise because historically we've been misled. now i'm a little nervous. i think the risks are clearly to the upside. it's not just because of adp. it was also the ism employment series increased significantly. the labor differential and the
consumer confidence measures looked better. i think the risk is we get a stronger number. >> joe, how about you? >> what michelle said makes sense. we're at 160. the reality -- >> look at that. >> sorry, 150. 160 sounds reasonable. the thing, becky, with these figures is that essentially 80,000 is noise. really, 150 versus 230 doesn't make a difference. >> that's providing cover. >> nobody historically has had an ability to predict with any regularity. other things such as gdp and the broader economic trends are predictable. >> let's do that. let's talk about the broader trends. it looks like things are moving along. >> all the sentiment indicators, consumer confidence, business confidence, the ism, all have improved quite dramatically. that reflects a change in sentiment associated with trump's administration, which i think will do great things. >> how about you, michelle? this is something where you try
and figure out, is this going to be the year where we really break out and see higher gdp? >> guess i'm a bit more skeptical than joe around the ability to realize much stronger growth. it is true, if we see fiscal stimulus kick in, that clearly will be a positive for the economy. but the question is the timing, the magnitude, the details. right now we don't have very much of that. i think that for the first half of the year, the economy is going to grow close to the trend we've seen in the past few years in an environment where you still have structural challenges, you still have low productivity growth, and we're in later stages of business. cyclicly, the economy is growing a bit as you hit some constraints on the part of supply. my view is it's still a 2% economy. i think you need to see significant fiscal stimulus to boost it further. >> joe, what would you say for the full year? >> well -- >> not you. other joe. >> three with growth in the back half near four. >> can i just ask -- and i think
this is important not for political reasons, but it's a political question. if it's a strong number, can we attribute it to donald trump's presidency? and the reason why it's an economic question is this. we're trying to look for effects and impacts of confidence. do you think it's showing up in hiring already? >> it's possible. it's possible that those confidence measures are starting to show up because we've seen confidence in businesses, small businesses, large businesses. we did a simple test where we looked at causality between survey measures and some of the hard data. the hard data is the labor market data. the retail sales numbers are not very sensitive. the durable goods numbers are not sensitive. >> the confidence numbers are overemphasized by the markets. but it's interesting. so ceos are feeling their oats, they're likely to hire more than consumers are likely to buy. >> yes, that's what we found. >> although, doesn't that then lead to consumers that are more willing to buy? >> then you get the multipliers
to the rest of the economy because job growth is picking up, aggregate income is picking up, and consumers can spend more and you get those -- >> this is the x-factor. the economists can't model animal spirits. >> the economists, let's face it, are horrible. they didn't get the downturn. >> speak for yourself. >> they didn't predict the downturn. i wasn't referring to you guys. they all missed the recovery. and they missed the speed of the recovery. now they're saying there are structural impediments. we've had, you could argue, 16-plus years of weak capital expenditure. no capital deepening. if the policies the president puts in place actually get the supply side of the economy moving, you have tremendous capability of business investment, which typically is deflationary, not inflationary. the cycle, if done right, could go a lot longer in my mind. >> larry kudlow's first rule of growth is that growth is not inflationary. >> how long do you think it will take before we can see something, joe? obviously we don't know the details. >> no, if we get a good number
today, adp then foreshadowed it, it's possible it could happen now. the problem with january is it's a month where you lose about 3 million jobs because of seasonality. t >> i hear retailers hired less than in past years. >> that could actually help in january because january is the month you typically lay people off. if you didn't hire as many, you don't fire as many. actually, for january, the number looks better. >> was that the case with the adp number, steve? >> adp i think was flattered by weather a little bit. i don't know how they handle the seasonal adjustments. what they're trying to do is mimic the bls number. they use a variety of different concoctions like spiders -- no, they use like claims and things like that to try to get there. the philadelphia fed activity. they got rid of that and used something else. it's hard to know.
>> never mind. forget i asked. >> the stock market, while not perfect, is your measure of animal spirits. >> right. >> and when you're looking for coincident indicators to measure animal spirits, it's almost impossible. it has to be a leading indicator. >> so what's the stock market telling you now? >> stock market is up 10% since november. >> since december it's been flattish, right. >> if it went up 10% a month, it would be hard to sustain that. and there are, at this point, you know, you read the newspapers. >> joe, i'm just asking -- >> if you're looking for an animal spirits indicator, you're not going to see it. >> what about the treasury yield curve? >> you're not going to see it in the indicators. >> we had a huge rise in the stock market from december 2010 and didn't necessarily show up. >> it's not perfect. the stock market is forecast,
you know, nine out of the last three recessions. >> five. >> whatever. >> michelle, joe, thank you for coming in. >> thank you. >> it's not perfect. not perfect, but it's the best we got. >> coming up, auto nation ceo mike jackson on quarterly results, the state of the auto industry, and the border tax battle. i bet he doesn't like that. later, advertisers spend millions during the super bowl. 5 million for 60 seconds. >> 30 seconds. >> but people are doing 60-second ads. >> which would be ten. or do you get a discount? >> good question. we'll sell it cheaper on "squawk box." a look at some of the ads and how the current political landscape. [ alarm clock beeping ]
[ screaming ] [ laughter ] make everyday awesome with the power of xfinity x1... hi grandma! and the fastest internet. [ girl screaming ] [ laughter ] welcome back to "squawk box," everyone. it has been an active morning for the president, at least when it comes to twitter. president donald trump tweeting a short time ago, meeting with the biggest business leaders this morning, good jobs are coming back to u.s., health care and tax bills are being crafted now. gives you a little bit of an idea of what's on the agenda today. that's what wall street has been waiting to see, for these issues to take front and center. andrew is covering that meeting in washington. he'll be joining us at 8:00 a.m. eastern time. all right. auto nation just out with earnings. the car retailer earning 95 cents a share. it was a real estate gain,
wasn't it? >> that's correct. >> basically in line with expectations. auto nation did record record earnings for both the fourth quarter and 2016. joining us now is mike jackson, chairman and ceo of autonation. if you want to highlight anything in particular in the results, that's fine. i'd rather talk about some of your comments about the industry itself because you would know, if anyone, whether we've plateaued. you're seeing signs of this great period we've been in, are we starting to see a little bit of a plateau? >> well, i was on this program january a year ago. i coined the term plateau. that's what happened in 2016. it's a plateau at a nice level. plus 17 million units. i think it'll be 17 million units again in '17 because if i look at the high inventories and the production plan, the variable is incentives. the industry has decided it's going to sell 17 million vehicles this year one way or the other.
and it can afford the incentives because the truck mix has swung to over 60%. that's what people are buying. they're very profitable. therefore, they can afford the incentives. if i look at pricing compared to five, six years ago, transaction prices are up $4,000 a car. incentives are up a thousand dar doll -- dollars. they're going to make a small fortune at manufacturers in north america. there are some dangerous signs in those incentives. i think pushing leasing to 30% is too much. probably unsustainable. >> you mean 30%? >> 30% of the retail vehicles that go out our door are leasing. >> what is it historically? >> should be around 20%. they been doing this for years. we have 3.5 million vehicles coming back this year. an all-time record. it will be 4 million next year and 4.5 million a year after that. that's going to put pressure on residual values. >> does the plateau always go back down, or can it go higher?
are you implying wily go down? >> it's a geological question, isn't it? >> a plateau goes flat. >> we need to know whether it goes up at the end or down. >> it's a cliff. >> are you expecting that? so 17 is the peak? >> i think peak is the wrong word. steve said it right. you can run a plateau for years. as long as you have available credit, reasonably priced, and reasonably priced gasoline, you can run at 17 million. that's fine. >> what about the downward pressure on things like zip cars and car sharing? does that make a cap on why it doesn't go higher than 17? >> no, steve, the marketplace is already 30% sharing between rental car companies, taxis, et cetera. so that's players within the shared market. that stays about the same. >> that's not growing. >> and retail personal use is about 70% of the marketplace. about 14 million units a year.
i think the move within the industry is general optimism about trump's pro-growth strategy. me also. >> regulatory environment? >> regulatory, rationalized regulation from being onerous. tax reform -- korcorporate tax reform. all those are very strong positives. what's giving everybody a headache is all the discussion in the auto industry about tariffs and border taxes. when you have vehicles at our price points, you start throwing around 35% tariffs and 20% border taxes -- >> but the currency is going to adjust. >> come on, steve. give me a break. >> i'm just saying what they're saying. >> i'm not saying that, all right. >> that's the problem. retailers don't believe it at all. >> i don't buy into it. >> i'm going to get an angry note from larry lindsay who say currency will adjust. >> it's all a nice theory. really, how does the world economy handle 20% stronger?
it's very disruptive if, indeed, that happens. it's not so easy. let's just take tariffs. we already have a 25% tariff on trucks coming into the united states. the two exemptions are for nafta, mexico and canada. if nafta blows up and those tariffs come back on those truck plants in mexico, that's very disruptive to the industry. border adjustment taxes, i hear people say 160 countries have border adjustment taxes. no, they don't. they have a value added tax. that applies to both imports and exports. it's a consumption tax within the marketplace. so that's not true. and i get a headache at the quality of the discussion. bmw gets slammed because there's too many bmws in america and not enough chevys. well, the facts are bmw's largest plant in the world is in south carolina. they produce more in the united
states than they sell in the united states. they're a net exporter. what more do you want from a company? by the way, you don't see so many chevys in germany. they're called opals. general motors has been in germany since 1910. >> i had an opal in russia that was exported from germany. >> mike, i was kidding some of our european viewers about those little cars that you see over there. with what's happening with oil prices in the long-term outlook, let's say we get even more aggressive here in developing our own resources and maybe we're not the only country that has some of these bigger cars, could you ever see us exporting cars over there that aren't those little -- >> no. >> that'll never happen? >> that's not going to happen. >> they're stuck with those things, squeezing in? >> because they tax gasoline in europe dramatically. >> so it's not going to help. >> you're talking $2, $3, $4 a gallon --
>> a liter. >> whatever. the federal tax in the u.s. is 18 cents a gallon. it's been there for 20 years. >> okay. >> i wish we could sell -- it would be nice to sell into the rest of the world. some of our stuff. they like buicks in china. >> the mood in the industry is 17 million is going to happen. nothing wrong with plateau. for plateau to end, you'd have to have dramatically higher rates. >> the demographics are growing. the economy is growing. why aren't you predicting more growth in car sales? >> well, you know, you have 2% gdp growth in the united states. that's not so exciting. you know, if you do the scrappage rate, household formation, you come up with a sustainable rate around 17 million plus. now, steve, if it goes higher, trust me, i'll handle it. the industry will handle it. i don't think it's prudent to
plan on it though. we've had a seven-year bull run. to say it's going to 18, 19 million, i don't think it's going to happen. >> mike, thank you. >> great seeing everybody. >> is he okay with the trump thing? >> it's painful. >> tough, isn't it? >> i try to talk him through it. the daily tweets take a toll on liberals. >> it kills them. >> it's taking a toll. >> all right. thanks, mike. coming up, the lincoln work force report. a look at who's hiring and who's firing in key cities across america. that's coming up. check out the futures ahead of this morning's big jobs report. 46 up on the dow. mixed -- down on the nasdaq. s s 's ispk ca f id onall ofy rc l thnlimededshk om s s mns
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maker hershey among those reporter quarterly earnings this morning. the company beat estimates by 9 cents with quarterly profits of $1.17 per share. they were helped by better results in the u.s. market. also out with numbers, household maker clorox, 3 cents above estimates, but they did cut their 2017 estimate. charles schwab cut its standard trading commission. that move immediately weighed on shares of competitors like etrade and also tdameritrade. we have just under an hour until we get the january jobs number from the labor department. meanwhile, linkedin has taken a new look at the job market nationally and in key cities across the country for more, we're joined by dan roth, linkedin executive editor. give us an idea of the report, what we're looking at here.
>> 133 million members in the u.s. we looked to see who has changed jobs. they've updated their profile. we see how that's changed month to month. we've been looking at this for a couple years. we're ready to start telling the world what we're seeing in terms of jobs. couple interesting numbers jump out. 11% increase in hiring in january. 8% increase in december. so overall jobs are coming back, people are getting these jobs. some interesting numbers if you look to see what industries are doing well. a 23% increase in oil and energy hiring, which is pretty unusual. only one industry that actually lost jobs. do you want to guess what it is? >> government. >> retail. >> media and entertainment. down 4%. everyone else is hiring. >> these are year-over-year numbers. >> exactly. >> how does that compare to increases as you've seen in the past. you throw out numbers like an 8% increase, 11% increase. that sounds really high to me. >> well, this is basically consistent with what you're
seeing in the government jobs numbers also. there is hiring going on, but it's uneven. it is definitely not every industry seeing it. and it's also uneven in terms of which cities are benefitting the most. one of the interesting things is if you start digging into the numbers, you look at places like atlanta where there are too many i.t. workers. l.a., where there are not enough i.t. workers. there are too many people who are in the entertainment business. they basically are full of entertainment people, but there are these skills gaps across the country. while the 11% and 8% numbers look great, there are places that are not hiring -- there are employers who cannot fill jobs they want to fill. >> not a similar story across the nation, very localize thloc. >> wh >> that's right. >> when you talk about the oil and gas industry, is that just with gas prices stabilizing? >> any kind of hiring shows up big in the numbers. they've lost so many people.
but there are -- houston has one of the biggest skills gaps. again, this is employers who are looking to fill jobs. the skills they need that they can't fill, open job listings. and there are so many people with these oil and gas skills that aren't being put to use. so hiring is up, but it's still not enough to pick up the slack. >> can you tell where people go? what's the migration pattern look like? >> what we can look at is not which industry but what cities they're going to. so new york, people leave new york and they follow julia boorstin and head to los angeles. chicago is really interesting. chicago is a feeder city from smaller midwestern cities. it's basically pulling professionals from peoria, champaign, and they come to chicago and then leave. there are certain cities that have become huge magnets for especially white-collar workers. so the biggest gain in workers is portland, seattle, austin, denver, and charlotte. they're seeing massive gains.
seattle is our number one top city for professionals. we're seeing the number one growth in professional hiring. >> is there leading information in it? could it help me find out where the jobs are going to be, which industries are prospectively doing the best? >> you can find it out per city. there are places where if you are -- if you have a certain set of skills and you are -- you want a new job, you can either continue to look in your city, but if you look at this report, you'll see maybe there are too many of your particular skill. but seattle is hurting for this position. or d.c. is. >> why don't they do a better job, the cities or industries, of trying to get the word out to say come here if you want to be -- >> i'm not sure the cities know necessarily. i think if you ask, they don't have this information and know exactly what they need to fill. if you can take this 5,000-foot-view and say, hey, you need to start being a magnet -- take atlanta. go find these i.t. workers and take them to l.a. if you are an individual systems
network person in atlanta, you're not thinking that way. what city should i move to? you don't have the information. now you do. >> real quickly, you mentioned media and entertainment has seen a decline of 4%. >> that's right. >> so is that job loss coming largely from newspapers and not being offset by new media jobs being created? >> it's across the board. this is people who work in the entertainment business in general not hiring like it used to. i think it is -- i'm not sure if it's nooewspapers or not. >> i have to wonder if you know where the media jobs are. in other words, if they're hiring at facebook, are they -- >> it depends on when you list your skills on your profile. >> oh, so these people are thinking of themselves maybe as media. >> exactly. you're right about that. you look at the biggest gaps, the biggest gaps are no in these s.t.e.m. and tech jobs but soft-skill jobs. places like san francisco,
boston, they need people who are in health care, who are able to work at retail, who are able to manage restaurants. these cities that are growing larger because of technology cannot fill the soft-skill -- >> dan, i want to congratulate you for making this data available. sounds like it's potentially really interesting. it's one of those things we have to understand how to understand it. >> absolutely. >> where is it useful and how does it add to the broader jobs data that's out there. but this sounds like it's -- a person changes his address, he's moved from there to there on his linkedin profile. now we're harvesting that data as part of the broader data experiment that people are trying to learn to use, which is so complicated. >> i think it should be helpful. this is month one. pleased to debut it with you guys. >> dan roth from linkedin. coming up this sunday, the year's largest tv audience will gather not just for of the game but for the commercials, as they always do. we're going to find out if advertising during the big game
really still pays off after the break. and as we head to the aforementioned break, what will you be eating on super bowl sunday? probably one of these foods. >> or all of the above. >> this is a list of the top super bowl foods according to pollfish.com. not fish, yuck. no surprise, chicken wings score big. i'm going to get on my soap box. we need gmo chickens that have more than two wings. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪
new england patriots owner bob kraft has a lot on his plate this week as his team gets set to face the atlanta falcons in the super bowl on sunday. a fifth title is on the line. our jane wells caught up with mr. kraft yesterday in houston, where he weighed in on president donald trump. >> we think the incoming administration's policies are very pro business, which is exciting to us because i think what's happened over the last decade, working class families and poor people, their situation has worsened, and i think with
the new regulations, it will create more jobs, more economic activity, and i personally hope it will bring great help and sort of be a catalyst to the inner cities to get better jobs there. >> mr. kraft also gay a shoutout to a certain business channel issue business news channel. >> love cnbc. that's how i get educated on what i have to know about the financial world. >> you saw his comments about the personal side. he's had a friendship with donald trump for a while. bob just unfortunately lost his wife of 40 or 50 years, a long time. trump called him every week for a week to console him, went up, see how he was doing, inviting him out. things you don't necessarily always hear.
but who do we want? depends on whether you like tom brady or roger goodell. this is sort of a moral -- >> you don't have to play that game. >> i think this is a redemption story for tom brady, for anybody who was doubting him because of all the deflategate. i love that -- by the way, they keep calling him old, which he's not. >> i'll say. >> i always root for the older guy. >> people have made a point, he could be throwing live chickens and beat most teams with how good he is. >> is there air in the chickens or not? >> or are they eight-wing chickens? which i am promoting at this point. but this is cool because ryan came into his own. boston college kid. this is going to be fun to watch. >> who do you want to win, joe? >> i know the krafts. i like brady. with him it's like, oh, well,
once wes welker leaves, they're not going to be the same. wes who? well, amendola is hurt. they can't win without amendola. a couple weeks ago it was hogan. who the hell is hogan? art hogan? then gronkowski. if they don't have him -- doesn't matter. so it must be more. they have great receivers, but it must be more. >> he works so hard. >> and belichick. they always show him. he looks like some type of, you know, grim reaper. people love to hate belichick. how good is he. >> but don't you just want the underdog? >> no, i want the old guy. >> there's a lot of people, i think, who like to see -- >> hard work pays off. >> brady is the crown champion here. so people are rooting for the upstart. >> number one, look at him. >> okay. >> the two of us, look at him.
we got problems, all right. he's like 6'5". he's perfect. who's he married to? >> that's another reason to hate him. >> exactly. so it could be easy to hate him, but you should be able to look at what your feelings are resulting from and identify those as shallow feelings, steve. >> the reason we're talking about all of this -- >> i'm wondering what our boss is thinking about the idea that we programmed in a five-minute discussion on the super bowl. >> the reason we're talking about this is because of the super bowl. it is big business. the cost of a 30-second super bowl ad has exploded just over the last few decades. so has the competition to try and stand out. with the largest tv audience of the year watching this sunday, advertisers will be looking to target as many consumers as they can, all in an especially polarized media and political climate. joining us right now with at least a little bit of what we can expect is andrew robertson. he's the president and ceo of advertising giant bbdo worldwide. andrew, great to see you. thanks for coming in. >> nice to see you again, becky. >> let's talk broadly about this. the cost of a 30-second ad.
is it really 5.2 million? >> or thereabout, yeah. >> so 10.4 for a 60-second ad, or do you get a discount? >> you get a tiny discount. tiny discount. like two seconds for free. >> is it worth it? is it worth -- >> it is for some brands. there are two reasons. in order to drive sales in a lot of categories, you need to create mental availability, get your brand talked about, get your brand on top of people's minds. there is no other venue on the planet where you can have over 100 million people seeing your commercial at exactly the same time and therefore have the opportunity to have them talk about it and your brand. but beyond that is the quality of that engagement because the super bowl -- i saw data yesterday. 54% of people said they would be disappointed if the super bowl were served up without advertising. it's one of the few venues where people are actively looking at commercials. >> we're not skipping over
things. they don't want to miss the game and don't want to miss the ads. >> so you have this high level of attention from an awful lot of people all at once. that's what drives the conversation and makes brands famous and gets them talked about and sold. >> it's got to be different these days to engineer a successful super bowl ad, i would imagine. there must be a lot of planning that goes into the social media around it and how you then get the jumping off point from just this 30-second spot. >> yeah, i mean, you can't think of it as just the four hours on sunday night. you have to -- if you're going to make sense of that kind of investment, you've got to turn it into an event for your brand that lasts certainly days and hopefully weeks. last year by the time we got to monday morning, there had been 330 million views of ads on youtube. 330 million. and then another 40% in the two weeks after the super bowl. so designing and creating a
program that is going to generate that level of views before, during, and after the super bowl is the key. >> you're doing that this year with snickers. for the first time ever, you're doing this ad live. >> yes, we are. >> which means something could fail, something could go wrong. >> you know that as well as anybody. >> why? nothing ever goes wrong around here. >> that's the beauty. is this one of those look at us because you may see a car crash type of -- >> i hope not. i hope we're not going to have any problems. no, we're doing it because it makes it a little bit more interesting. as the bar gets raised are every years, you have to find a new way to get your brand to stand out in this environment. >> we should point out we were showing a commercial about a commercial. you guys just made a snickers commercial about a coming snickers commercial. >> we've been running teasers for the last week, telling people that it's live. and we actually have a live stream going on now on facebook live, which is running for 36
hours. just lots of funny stuff to do with the commercial. some of the auditions. we've got -- >> how many ads are in the super bowl? >> bbdo, just one. snickers. >> so you've invested behind this one. >> oh, big time. on sunday night, we'll have 150 people on the set working on this 30-second play. >> can you give us any other details about it? or is this supposed to be like a curtain raiser that you can't give us anything? >> i can't, except to say it's snickers and you're not you when you're hungry, which is the c e campaign theme. >> you always have celebrities in these ads. should we expect the same? >> we have adam driver. adam driver is the lead player in this. there have been some other appearances in the livestream on facebook live over the last day and over the next couple. >> we do this show every day for three hours live. never anything goes wrong. >> hardly. >> you're pros. we're just hacks. >> no, no, no.
there are plenty of mistakes. the key is just to roll with it. >> that's what we'll do with $5 million worth of air time. >> well, andrew, thank you. we will be watching on sunday. on monday morning, how will you know if you're a success or not? >> we'll know how successful we've been based on the amount of social media conversations. >> if you'll still have a job or not. >> i'll know whether to come in or stay in bed. >> great it see you. thank you. >> thanks a lot. when we come back, amazon's holiday quarter missing expectations despite a 55% increase in profit. they beat the profit expectations. it was just the revenues that were a little light. also, guidance for the current quarter in terms of revenue. the stock was hit in after hours. we'll talk more about that. down by just over 4% right now. a read on where the stock may open today and the results right after this break. ent. tir get tid o tire
amazon under pressure after reporting earnings. the e-commerce giant posted a 55% rise in profit but revenue was slightly shy of analyst expectations. joining us now, analyst. bill miller said shares could double. if they're going to double, maybe this is a time to put some money in or not, in your view.
>> i think they can theoretically double, perhaps not over three years, but i don't think this is the time right now to get in. i still think the expectations have not fully calibrated with the reality of the situation. what we saw in the quarter is, yes, revenue is doing well and performed at the high end of the guidance range, but the incremental margins associated with aws dramatically slowed, chopped by half, actually, versus last year. then they're still investing a ton of money when it comes to content and trying to go to war with all these companies. until we have more confidence in the profitability, i don't think you can make that call. >> so -- >> i do love bill miller though. >> with the web services, i mean, is there a deceleration there? or is it just temporary? >> i think it's temporary, but it could be sustained, at least for the next year. >> hence your thesis of maybe waiting even longer before. >> look, this is a company trading 17, 18 times ebitda.
the question is what do you pay for this, especially when you have a situation of the diminishing confidence and the profitability outlook. if you look at going into the quarter, the profit expectations for 2017 on a gap basis was $7 billion. we were at 6 billion, and i think that number could be more like 5.5. we got to see where this shakes out. if the expectations are level, you could make that argument for an entry point. >> right. do you need to -- i mean, this has been so controversial a name for its entire existence. for a long time, it wasn't -- they weren't profitable, they were growing, but it was costing too much to grow. now they're getting more profitable b. do you worry that bezos might decide to send up a mars lander or something? he can do crazy things. some of these tech ceos. >> he's got his own space
company separately. >> but that same kind of attitude. i guess he's pretty disciplined. >> i'm not worried about that at all, to be honest. you've seen so much discipline and so much thoughtfulness in the pace of execution, the types of products they're rolling out. i don't think you can discount alexa with the echo and building a platform around that. the long-term -- i mean, i wrote in the note today, i love amazon, love prime, avid user, but i can't recommend it at this price right now. >> okay. all right. we'll check back with you. call us. >> i know the valuation yet, but snap, strategically it's good. >> good position. all right. depends on pricing and everything else. all right. thanks. coming up, the final countdown is on. our jobs panel standing by and ready to take us to the number of the month. the numbers, the analysis, and
breaking news. jobs in america, the january employment report is just minutes away. our panel of experts standing by. predictions for the economy, the marks, and the fed straight ahead. plus, trumponomics. andrew ross sorkin live in washington as ceos head to the white house for a meeting with president trump. a special hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box." good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen with becky quick, steve liesman is here. andrew ross sorkin is not here, but he'll be live in washington this morning covering the president's meeting with business leaders. we'll hear from him in a couple minutes. and less than 30 minutes away
from the january jobs report. economists expect nonfarm payrolls to rise by 174,000. unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.7%. futures right now have been positive for most of the morning. europe was doing better. everything but the nasdaq based on amazon, i guess, to some extent is down. the dow is called up 44. the s&p up. among today's top stories, president trump issuing new executive orders. he's issued a review of dodd-frank and the volcker rule. the parent of snapchat, meanwhile, lifting its debut. could be the largest since alibaba more than two years ago. it's expected to seek a valuation between $20 billion and $25 according to "the wall street journal."
the offering will seek to raise $3 billion. and shares of amazon are under pressure after earnings reports. the company is posting a 55% rise in fourth quarter profit, but revenue missed estimates, and the company's current quarter guidance was weaker than expected. joe? as we just noted, it's about 28 minutes now to the first jobs report under president trump. let's get to our panel now. todd gordon, founder of tradinganalysis.com. also a cnbc contributor. former council of economic advisers chairman, austin golsby. american enterprise institute, direct of reresearch for policy, kevin hasset. gentlemen, welcome, one and all. start with something we talked about earlier. steve was here talking to michelle meyer. we're trying to figure out if there's any way to gauge animal spirits with economic indicators and whether it's possible that positive sentiment could
actually already be helping jobs numbers. do you think that's possible, kevin? supposedly consumers don't act right, but business executives might start feeling better about hiring people if they're more a optimistic about the future. >> i think we're seeing animal spirits. i think that's why the adp number was strong and this number will be strong as well. there is a little literature on whether sentiment affects consumption behavior. chris carroll wrote a famous paper where refound it's the unemployment expectation. if people think they're going to get a job, they go out and consume. in the end, the republicans are going to have to deliver something that proves that sentiment is rational. but right now, i think that everybody is quite hopeful that there will be policy changes that move in the positive direction. >> my buddy austin, my buddy austin. so for years now, we have gone back and forth.
you know that. what if we did pro growth. what if we got rid of some regulations. what if we did this stuff. could we do better than we're going right now? we're already doing better than the rest of the world, so maybe it's not those things. what if things really do start to get better? are you finally going to say, you know, joe, all my education, all my experience, and just some dumb prompter reader, you were right about all this stuff. and it is working. will you come to me and say that, austin, some day? >> if that's true, i will say it. i am loyal only to the facts, joe. but when they start a trade war with mexico, canada, china, germany, and the rest of our major trading partners, and then we have the second coming of the 2008 financial crisis because we've repealed all the regulations on the financial sector, then you're going to come crawling back to me, joe.
i'm going to be nice about it. i'm not going to rub it in because i want what's best for the country. >> wow. you know it's friday, right? you know it's super bowl weekend. >> who are you for, joe? who do you think is going to win? >> you know what, austin, i'm joking around, but brady's a trump guy, so i guess i'm for the patriots. >> i thought his wife said he's not a trump guy. >> i have some, you know -- i may know a little more. i was kidding. i was just throwing that out there. no one has tweeted to me in a couple minutes. i need some hate tweets coming in. todd, what do you think? >> want me to start typing? >> yeah, go ahead. >> how many handles do you have, becky? >> sorry. >> are you sure? do you want to tweet back and forth? >> no, no, no. go ahead. >> i'm a big fan. i think he's a little more talk. >> tom brady? >> no, trump.
>> oh, all right, sorry. >> no, i think his bark is a little bit louder than his bite. if he just can enact the policies that he's committed to without getting in his own way, that would be great. look at the move up we've had in interest rates. president obama under yellen has tried to get that kind of move in rates for years. they were scared to death of the stock market selling off. it's exactly the opposite. the market likes what we've seen. i think the backup we've seen in the market in the dollar, the move in bonds and also the gold market is starting to get it wrong. i think this is going to be a stronger report. i think animal spirits are here. i think we're going to see a strong report. >> i don't think belichick backed off at all, austin. >> belichick, maybe. let's remember, at this point eight years ago, the economy is losing 800,000 jobs a month. we're now going to hand to president trump an economy that the last seven years has added more than 2 million a year. if he can do better than that, i
will be happy. that'll be a good sign for the economy. but i don't know that he can. >> well, maybe wage gains and gdp. >> we've had wage gains. >> not as much as we'd like, obviously, or you guys wouldn't be crying so much about income inequality every two seconds. decide where the problems are. hey, kevin, what do you think? the first time we haven't had a single 3% gdp year in an eight-year period. is it just we can't do it anymore because it's my fault because i'm a baby boomer? >> you know, that's basically been the story for austin and the other guys on their team. well, we can increase tax rates and it's not going to harm the economy. we can increase regulation, but they're smart regulations. it's not going to hurt the economy. we can, you know, expand health care and put this big new liability on firms and it's not going to harm anything. and that's their story. now we're going to test it a little bit because i think that stuff is going to be wound back, and we're going to see if we can get closer to three.
i think we will. i think markets think we will. i think the job number today will be the first sign that optimism is going to be visible in real hard data. >> kevin, i think we're winning. let's bring liesman in to help austin. go ahead, steve. >> okay. >> actually, i wouldn't help austin. what i have to do -- >> that would be a change then. all right. go ahead. >> kevin, i have to ask you if you're going to be in the white house to advise the president on these brilliant ideas you have about the economy. >> you know, the one thing i keep hearing people say is that there's never going to be anybody as great as austin in the white house. >> and they're right. that's the wisdom of the crowd. >> a comment on the cea, kevin? i want to make sure i've covered my bases. >> yeah, that's right. there's no comment. >> all right. so austin, let me come back to you. i think you're wrong in the following way. i think you can loosen up -- i mean, dodd-frank wasn't perfect. just because you passed dodd-frank the way you did doesn't mean you have the absolute correct capital
requirements in there. so maybe you can get another half a point or three-quarters point out of the economy if you ratchet back a little bit on the financial industry. >> look, let's talk about it in two ways. first, as i say, for the last seven years, we've added 15 million jobs. it's the longest streak of job recovery in the private sector in u.s. economic history. so it is not the case that we have been stymied on the job market and businesses have been resistant to hiring. that's not true at all. on the growth side, maybe we could. maybe if we had kevin and a group of rational people who were looking at the regulatory system to try to figure out how to streamline it and make it better -- as you know, i was sympathetic to that when i was in the white house. they tried to do that. they did a regulatory lookback. fi i think if you look at what
donald trump is doing, he's chaos incarnate. we have heard for seven years from business that uncertainty and chaos is the worst thing and the exact thing that they don't want. i don't think they've taken any rational approach to striking down the regulations. they're not going in and pruning in a smart way dodd-frank. they're talking about just reinventing the no rules of the road system that led us into the financial crisis. >> wow. this market must be set up for a huge drop down once it becomes correct about how it's supposed to think about these things. >> well, you have seen it stalled out, right, joe? it went up when he was elected. then when he actually started doing things, the market has not been doing up. >> 10% since the election. >> that was in the first month. ten he became the president. let's start looking at once he became the president. >> it didn't go back ten. before you claim victory, let's see what happens with the market. it's like just under 20,000,
austin. it's had three rough sessions. i know you're waiting and hoping that it hits the fan. >> it tripled under barack obama. >> yeah, after he was set up. hey, if jeff immelt had come into general electric at the same time, his stock would have went from 6 to 31. all i'm saying is it's timing. >> then just think logically, joe. >> it was down 40%. >> if we're looking at the market to evaluate the president -- >> this is like saying bill clinton was responsible for the internet bubble. him and al gore single handled by precipitated the bubble. nothing to do with it. right place at the right time. >> anyway, we will -- i don't know if we'll continue this. but we'll talk about other things. these guys are going to be sticking around, hopefully. austin didn't get so massacred there that he leaves, but anyway -- just kidding, austin. love you. be careful. you're in chicago. i worry about you driving to
work. anyway -- >> university of chicago, where all the economists there are a little more conservative than austin. >> they are. he's like a token there. >> he's a brilliant economist. >> he is. we used to get him mixed up with zandy. >> by we you mean the royal we. >> no, when we'd have him on because on a box they sort of look similar. >> mixed up as in confused. we have some breaking news for you, folks. we are getting some news on president trump's controversial order regarding immigration. there's a single headline from reuters saying that a federal judge in detroit has issued a temporary restraining order preventing the administration from carrying out the new immigration restrictions. this is just one in a number of judges who have done this. there was already a judge in new york, a federal judge there who has done this. another judge in massachusetts who has done similar. so this is something that is going to be carried out through the court system. we'll get you more details as soon as they're available. in the meantime, let's head to washington. andrew ross sorkin is there as president trump gets ready to
meet with ceos from his strategic and policy forum with one notable ceo missing. andrew, great to see you. >> reporter: hey, becky. good morning. we're just outside the white house right now. some ceos, doug mcmillen of walmart just walking in. chatted with him briefly this morning. many of the biggest ceos in the nation joining the president this morning at a meeting to talk about taxes, regulation, infrastructure. women in the work force another issue that is on the table. among the ceos planning to be here, mary barra of gm, jamie dimon of jpmorgan, larry fink of bla blackrock. the list goes on and on. elon musk, of course, of tesla. as you mentioned, one person who's not here and bit of a cloud over today's meeting and an issue that's going to come up again and again, the ceo of uber. i want to read to you a
statement from elon musk from last night addressing this issue of immigration, addressing to some degree without mentioning travis directly some of the criticism he's received for even participating in this particular meeting. he said that i and others will express our objections to the recent executive order on immigration and offer suggestions for changes to the policy. he also defended his decision to stay as part of the council, given that so many of his peers have criticized him on social media and elsewhere. he said, i understand the perspective of those who object to my attending this meeting, but i believe at this time that engaging on critical issues will serve the greater good. that's one of those views. one of the other issues that will come up today, of course, the rollback of dodd-frank. we will get that executive order. that's going to happen at noon today. i should also tell you at noon today, we will be speaking from the north lawn here at the white house with a number of ceos as they come out of that meeting.
we're planning to talk to steven szwarzman of blackstone about the meeting with a number of others, including jack welch, who's going to talk us to about what took place during the meeting and his views on what's happening with the administration. that's what's going on here in washington. >> andrew, thank you. obviously this is where we're going to be focused today. all these ceos who are right there in the white house. andrew is going to be covering it all day. great to see you. we'll continue to follow you through the afternoon. when we return on "squawk box," there are a record number of job openings in the construction industry, but it's not all good news. m r wn sharr trow
louisiana. kate? >> reporter: hey there, steve. that's right. donald trump is promising to rebuild america in a big way from roads to bridges to energy pipelines, which is great news for the already booming construction industry, which has added 1.3 million jobs over the past six years. there's just one problem, a massive shortage of skilled labor. the construction industry's optimism is at a record high. according to a recent survey, 73% of general contractors plan to add workers in 2017. but that's only if they can find skilled labor. >> there are no longer a lot of experienced workers sitting on the sidelines. they've all retired or gone on to other industries. now contractors just can't find the kind of workers that they would like to have. instead, they're hiring people with without construction experience or first-time job entrants. >> reporter: and with president trump promising more infrastructure spending, there's a potential of more construction jobs being created. the president's rhetoric has
definitely caught the industry's attention, but it remains to be seen if his words will translate into action. >> there's a potential for seeing a lot more construction, figures as high as a trillion dollars over ten years. i think there's a strong let's see how it would be structured and how it would be financed attitude. >> reporter: to help deal with the increased demand for skilled workers, some in the industry would like the trump administration to make career training a part of any new construction spending program. now, operations like this facility do hire workers by the thousands. the companies behind them do put a lot of resources into making sure their new hires are up to speed. one more thing to note here, these are not minimum wage jobs. some construction workers even have the opportunity to make six-figure salaries. back over to you, steve. >> kate, thanks very much. becky? when we return today, predictions from our panel ahead of the jobs report. that's coming up in less than
welcome back, everybody. stocks to watch this morning. chocolate maker hershey out with earnings, beating estimates by 9 cents. they were helped by better results in the u.s. market. >> also out with quarterly numbers this morning, household product maker clorox, 3 cents better than expected. however, they did cut their 2017 outlook, but the stock is still up by 2.3%. >> it's confusing because yesterday we were talking about asia. now we're talking about europe. coming up, the final countdown. this is europe. asia is a super group from king crimson. >> they were playing this on top of the mountain in davos. i made them record it. >> this means we're just minutes away from the january jobs report, as you can see. this is the final countdown, which is a geico commercial too. we will bring you the numbers. stay tuned. you're watching "squawk" and liesman hates it, so make it
good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. it is jobs friday. it is time to get predictions from our panel. kevin, let's start with you. what number are you expecting? >> yeah, so i've got in model like steve's that's been pretty good. it takes the adp and says we're going to get 270. i don't shave for the show. i just tell you what the model says. it's been good. that's where we're going. >> you look clean shaven. i'm impressed. austin, what about you? what number are you expecting? >> i'll say 185. i think a little better than consens consensus. this is the last month that we get jobs numbers before the new president has taken office. survey week is january 12th. i think it will be a decent number. i think the unemployment rate comes down a tenth. >> okay. todd, how about you?
>> i'm going to split the difference. i'm at 195. i hope i'm wrong to the upside. i think one thing we have to keep an eye on is the average hourly earnings. i think they're low. i think we're going to try to move up a little bit. animal spirits are flowing, people are hiring, and there's going to be more wage inflation. that's going to be the key to higher rates. i think the mark has it wrong. they've been selling off rates, buying treasuries. gold has been strong. i think the market has got this wrong. >> rick, how about you? >> market's got it wrong, huh? i go 233,000. >> whoa, okay. >> the only model i consulted was giselle. no economic model. >> steve, how about you? >> 206,000. >> because you add in adp, right? >> they're one of the five components i use. >> you've been on a hot streak. >> i'm up for a big miss. it's true. a revision to the mean. >> we're going to look at the futures before we head into this. we're about 20 seconds away from
the january number. right now the dow futures are up by 58 points. the nasdaq by down about ten. >> okay. this is pretty good. if it's disappointing, i'm going to be disappointed. hampton pearson will give us the number. he's standing by at the labor department. you can hear the countdown. so exciting. the number please, hampton. >> reporter: 227,000. january nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs. the unemployment rate is 4.8%. average hourly earnings, one-tenth of 1%, 2.5% year over year. december was actually revised downward from 0.4% to 0.2. private sector job growth in january, up by 237,000. revisions for november and december, a net loss of 39,000, below what had previously been reported. january job leaders, retail, up
46,000. construction, plus 36. food and services up 30,000. professional and technical services, up by 23,000. government employment, the significant loser, down by 10,000. utilities also slid by 4,000. now, the labor force participation rate actually increased to 62.9%, up 0.2 from december. the so-called real unemployment rate, however, increased to 9.4%. we also got the benchmark revisions, looking back to march of last year, as the baseline month. downward revision of 60,000, one-tenth of 1%. very insignificant because the ten-year average tends to be 0.3%. so overall, an upside surprise from the consensus forecast at least for january jobs. back to you. >> all right, hampton. thank you very much. let's get reaction from our panel. we always start with the closest.
rick, that is you. you had a guess of 233 versus the 227 of the actual number. congratulations. >> well, thank you. i mean, i guess every clock is right twice a day, whether the battery is new or not. but i would say looking into the data specifically, what i would like to underscore is obviously the wage side. the wage side is really on the light side. if you look at up 0.1 on a month over month and we gave up a little on the revision and when you look at the year over year, definitely a miss there as well. now, this was the one area along with the artificial notion of where, you know, under 5% unemployment, this argument of you're never going to pull people out of labor force participation. i think all those things are untrue. i think this number is calibrated right. i think we're going to see a lot more numbers, over 200,000 or so. i think there's a new breath of
energy that's coming into the marketplace. >> steve, what about you? you were pretty close with 206. >> yeah, i'm really happy. any time i'm under 50,000 off, it means my average improves. identify been running great the last four months. i wanted to beat kevin because kevin is the other model-based person on the panel here. so i was very happy to do that. with all due respect to kevin. i think what's missed here is the strength of the private sector, which was 237. you also had 10,000 taken off from government. the revision down the last two months have been declining. you have a big retail component, 46,000, which makes me feel a little weird in that this is a month when retail is firing. so it's a seasonal issue adding it back. that's okay. it might be another story. they didn't hire as many in december, didn't fire as many in january. i like the temporary help being up 15,000. i like the goods producing up 45,000 and the construction up 36. that could be flattered a little
bit by weather in that these are months when you're not expecting construction workers to come to work. they come because there's better weather for building. >> austin, why don't you talk a little bit about what rick was talking about, in terms of the wage side of this equation. >> okay. now, becky, am i to understand that giselle beat all of us in her forecast? is that -- rick got his number? >> he did. that was the only model he was looking at. >> let's get her on here next month. i'm willing to give up my spot. >> we finally agree on something, austin. >> look, i'd say rick is totally right on wages. that's a critical thing that we should be looking at. as you know, the last two years have actually been pretty strong wage growth for, let's call it, the middle of the income distribution for the first time in 25 years or something. it will be interesting to see whether this continues. i'm heartened that the true unemployment rate fell from 42%
to 41.7 here. but as we look out over the months to come, if rick is right that we can maintain 200,000-plus per month, that would be great for the economy. i think we should be a little nervous about the prospects that productivity growth starts going back up to something like normal and if it does, then companies are not going to need to hire as many workers to grow at that speed. >> kevin, why don't you comment on steve's point about how strong the private sector is in this. it's making up for a drag coming from the government sector. >> yeah, i see two things that are really noteworthy. the first is the construction number is consistent with the view that we're kind of making america great again, right. we got a friendly business climate. people want to come back and start operating their businesses here, and you're starting to see that in the data. the second thing that i think we need to think about is the temp workers. that very often comes ahead of a surge in hiring. ill guess that we're right.
that we're about to look at a number of months in a row where we're going to be north of 200. >> todd, how does the market take this news? the futures are up. >> they're up, but it's remi reminding me of 2010 and '11. bad news is good news and that average hourly earnings of 0.1, that's not good. we need wage inflation. this market likes it on the stock side, but fixed income and currencies, right now bad news is good news. i don't like that. >> can i make one point? i think you guys are a little bit jumping the gun in giving too much credit to donald trump. it may come back to haunt you if in the next couple months it goes down. i don't think a president's policies have any effect on the economy. you know, what do you think, six months, a year until -- i mean, there can be a little bit of animal spirits, but i don't think you're going to have people hiring for demand that isn't there. >> i think it's the opposite.
this number is before donald trump came into office. if you think about animal spirits, you should wait until he comes in to do his policies. it should be lower right before he comes in. >> we knew on november 8th who would not be in office, and the markets responded. i know all of you think the market is wrong. but the guy down here that has 1700 dow points in his pocket, he's putting a bid in on a new house. they're actually going to take the check. >> rick, i agree with you. i think clinton not winning meant a tax increase went away immediately. i also think you had, you know, the chance that there will be fewer rules rather than there being certainly the same or more rules. i think that's all fair enough. i think that helps. >> you said before the market is up because clinton lost. i like that. i understand, if that's the way you want to look at it, that's okay. >> i think donald trump is snatching some defeat from the jaws of victory.
i think he's got an interesting plan that's worth trying. the way he implements it, i think it makes the market very nervous. it goes back and forth on this. it sells off. it has a lot of concern over the chaos being created here. i think you can do this in a much more orderly, much more profitable way for the market. >> but austin, the animal spirits start after the election, not after the inauguration. you can't -- >> you wait for the policy. >> that will be fine. >> wait for the tax cut. >> what's the expected future corporate tax rate right now? it's not 35%. it's something a lot lower. so if you see firms deciding to stay here and to postpone their move abroad because they expect a lower rate that's almost surely going to happen this year, that's just rationality. you don't wait until the legislation passes. >> you don't invest. >> the stock market didn't wait, austin. you can't guarantee you're going
to be right and there's a day of reckoning. until that happens, the stock market is flying in the face of what you're saying. >> joe, just be careful. i'm your friend for a long time. nobody gets treated worse by donald trump than his friends. look at what he's done to the people who supported him. >> what is that supposed to mean? give me a break, austin. you didn't say that on all your other presences this week. >> i think andrew is listening in from washington and wanted to jump in. >> reporter: i just want to make one comment. i spent a lot of time on the phone last night with a number of ceos who will be at today's meeting and talked about the jobs, the jobs number, and their hiring plans. joe, i think you're right about the animal spirits piece, which is to say that they think they are planning to hire more people and they're actually putting -- taking steps already to do that. but many terms of the actual hiring that's gone on, i think it's hard. i think maybe this is steve's point, to attribute it directly to that.
meanwhile, there's this secondary issue going on, potentially related to this immigration piece. but a number of the tech companies -- mike allen wrote about it earlier this morning, and i heard about it last night -- which is companies like microsoft and google are starting think about whether they're going to do more hiring in vancouver and dublin as a result of these issues. i think it's going to cut both ways. obviously not in this number, but as we start to think about what the next couple months look like. >> and andrew, we got 100,000 standard deviation on. we don't even know if it's real. it's a net number of jobs lost versus hired. even if you see on the margin a little more, it wouldn't take much in animal spirits to see -- >> reporter: absolutely. >> andrew, we just came up with something i wanted to tell you quickly. we decided that kalanick has to worry about customers and employees, but elon musk has to worry about government subsidies. so who's he going to err on the
side of? he's got to go with trump. he can't go -- whereas kalanick kalanick -- isn't that right? >> reporter: i think that's unfair. i think elon musk is here for the reason everyone else is here. >> but kalanick isn't there. >> reporter: i appreciate that. i think the conundrum is he was unable to properly articulate the benefit of being at the table to those customers and to his employees, who didn't want to listen on this particular issue. i talked to a number of other ceos. we're going to talk about this on the air all day, hopefully when they come on. is there a moment at which you don't think you could participate in something like this with the president, if in fact, your customers or clients were revolting. really, all of them said it came down to how they were able to communicate around this issue. >> let's write the tweet that you could get fro
from @realdonaldtrump if he's written off. elon musk, let's see about these government subsidies. you could imagine the tweet he could get. he's got to be there. write the tweet for me. >> reporter: we will see. we'll hopefully see elon a little later. i know a number of them are making their way into the white house as we speak. >> all right. >> i just want to make one point. 580,000 people came into the work force. that's a good number. that's another potential sign of progress, if you get people who are discouraged. >> i'm going to drag you and austin kicking and screaming into this world. thanks to our panel this morning. look at austin. austin, i can't even give you the last word. i'm sorry. you're on another station. bring it up on cnn. the of ssyom low dasvas.
ceos are gathering at the white house this morning for the inaugural meeting of the president's strategical and policy forum. joining us now is boris epsthyn, who is the white house's assistant communications director for surrogate operations. andrew ross sorkin is also joining us live from washington. we knew you before you were anybody, boris. look at you now in that
backdrop. and it's not because of "squawk" you've gotten to this point. but congratulations. it's good to see you. >> thanks, joe. good to see you. >> i'm not going to be half empty about this. the market looks good today. but in recent days, there's been conjecture that maybe the eye is off the real target with the administration in terms of tax reform and in terms of maybe repealing and replacing obamacare and it's getting bogged down in some of these other issues maybe that should have perhaps been on the back burner with these other ones on the front burner. i understand you got to get some cabinet guys in there, right. you got to get some secretaries confirmed before you can do a lot. but do you expect the focus to go back on what some people think are the most important things, corporate tax reform or tax reform in general. >> well, joe, the focus is on a huge gamut of issues. the amount of productivity from this white house in just the first 11 days, almost two weeks
now, has been really unbelievable. if you look at issues from curbing overregulation, right, issues in terms of putting the keystone pipeline, dakota access pipeline back into place, back into a situation where they can create jobs again. that's what it's all about for this administration. it's about creating jobs. of course, it's also about national security. that's been a big focus. those two concentrations, jobs and national security, have been driving a lot of the great amount of productivity from our white house. >> tom price is just about ready to go. so should we expect something soon on obamacare? >> well, we are really hoping that the democrats in congress, in the senate stop obstructing the american people from having the government they elected. the american people elected donald j. trump as president. thereby, they deserve to have the appointees appointed by donald trump. instead, they've been sad almost in not showing up to the
hearings, et cetera. what are they doing, they're preventing the government from functioning at full speed. that's what we need, a secretary of the treasury. we need these people in place to make sure that we are again keeping americans employed and safe. >> so andrew, don't you think these guys that are there today are thinking tax reform, where is it? but you need a treasury secretary. maybe that's part of the problem. >> reporter: i'm not sure. clearly having a treasury secretary is key and important. i still think the big issues -- and boris can speak to this. there is a plan among a number of ceos who want to talk about tax reform today. they plan to talk about regulatory reform. a number of them have plans to present to the president on infrastructure spending, on the other big issue being women in the work force, an issue ivanka trump has been pressing. and then this immigration piece.
i was going to ask boris, there's a report out this morning that someone from the homeland security department is going to be coming to the meeting to speak to that issue as well. is that true? >> well, i'm not going to speak to exact makeup of the meeting. what i will tell you is the amount of concern over this pause, 90 days, in one case 120, but completely overblown. we're talking about seven countries. the reason that refugee pause is in place is to make sure americans are safe and secure and make sure that people when they go to work are safe and secure. as far as the business leaders are concerned, if anything, they should be completely on board with that executive order because a safer america is, the better it is for our economy. >> keep going, andrew. >> reporter: i was going to ask, what's the reaction been inside the white house at the moment to some of the reports that some of the big tech companies have started to think about whether
they should be moving jobs to other countries and how to handle that. >> well, we're confident that the jobs are coming back to this country. that's the exact promise this president made during this campaign. you already saw him create jobs during transition, making unprecedented transition in terms of product again. and now during the first two weeks of this president, this president has been so active in turning america's economy back around making sure we're a leader in the world. we're not concerned about jobs leaving. we're confident about jobs coming back to our beautiful country. >> hey, boris -- >> i was to ask real quick, can you comment briefly on the conversation? travis kalanick apparently called the confidence yesterday? can you comment on that? did the president say i understand the position you're taking? was he frustrated or upset? what's the reaction? >> again, we're focused on the productive discussion that will be happening here in the white house in a short amount of time, only a few hours with the ceos that will be attending.
again, as americans, as business leaders it's every person's opportunity and chance and choice whether to attend or not but we're excited about the discussion, the productivity discussion that will take place between president trump, a businessman himself, and these business leaders. >> boris, there's a lot of concern about trade and trade policies from the new administration. the president has talked about 35% import tariffs for companies that move jobs overseas. are those under consideration? are there import tariffs -- accumulative import tariffs being discussed right now? >> i'll let the president speak for himself on that what's being done. he's making sure american jobs stay here in america and come back to america, make sure we're not taken advantage of by countries around the world. but we're working closely with our allies to make sure that everyone benefits. >> all right, boris, i think we're going to leave it there. we'll see andrew later. inside those gates i want -- get the credentials, andrew. >> we'll get them in. >> you see what happens when
people try to go over the gate. do not do that. >> we'll get them -- >> i won't. i won't. boris, i'll see you in a couple minutes inside. >> see you soon, andrew, thanks. >> thanks, guys. >> thanks. when we come back, jim cramer's going to join us live. we'll get his take on the jobs number plus take a look at the futures this morning. it's been a mixed morning so far. actually, nasdaq's turned around. dow futures up triple digits now after a better than expected jobs report. up 101 points if we were to open here. s&p futures up by close to ten, nasdaq up by just over five. "squawk box" will be right back. s mo to cive y p s atgim we hst io intatremerartsime eonpintopun tuha s partneththe obesenntsi
let's get down to the new york stock exchange. jim cramer joins us now. i see you're tweeting this pretty good report, jim. if hillary had been elected -- [ laughter ] >> i don't know how to ask the question. would we have the same report? i just want to know. i want to know. >> yeah, i guess so. look, i've never been a subscriber of the idea that these numbers were slanted. i've always felt they should use a computer and not just tally it. they ought to offload it to salesforce or oracle. it's been ridiculous. i think puzder might change that. then we will actually have numbers that are decided you
ought to outsource it. there's no reason the labor department should actually do it because they've shown no sign of being able to do it well. because they revise so much. imagine if we had companies and they said, listen, we reported $1.23 but the last quarter turned out to be 80 cents. we thought it was $1.90. we would never allow a company to do that. >> are there any animal spirits already being manifested in ceo decisions from the election, do you think in this report? >> yes. >> you do. >> yes, i think small business feels better. small business takes it to heart that their regulations that are just going to go by the wayside and regulations have kept them from expanding. i actually genuinely believe that. i had snap-on tool on last night, they service thousands of small garages and everyone's very excited because they think maybe the epa gets off their backs. >> all right. and amazon, is this the time to buy? we had an analyst on -- >> yeah, expectations were too high. let it come in another day, monday, maybe do some buying. >> all right. jim, see you in a couple
minutes. thank you. coming up on jim's show, national economic council director gary cohn and president trump's rollback of financial regulations that's at 9:35 a.m. don't miss that. "squawk box" will be right back. - and it t scovie agnoststrehs.. - agnoststrehs.. - ..t t haat bngary. v...and superrun i ompurs.. u ooe pet.d bu♪ fae alsh rkplfoall e... v...and superrun i tord ow tng t adid*e tr ta t of t
let's do a quick check on the markets after the jobs report. steve, you've been watching treasuries. >> yeah, interesting yields have falling 1.18 on the two-year and 2.46. strong jobs report, markets went higher but yields did as well. >> why? >> the chance of a probability of a rate hike in march fell to 9%. >> all right. weak jobs though, it was strong. >> strong jobs. >> yeah, make sure you join us on monday. "squawk on the street" is next. ♪ a busy day in washington and on wall street. the president meets with the ceo forum and the january jobs number as you heard 227,000. good friday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange. futures up on that strong jobs number. europe is green as well. bond yields falling a bit as wages rise a little less than expected