tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC February 27, 2017 5:00am-6:01am EST
reads on the economy and a major address by president trump and focus in the coming days. >> washington watch. health insurance executives heading to the nation's capital, before the he plans to explain how he is going to replace and repeal obamacare. we'll have all of the highlights of hollywood's night straight ahead. it is february 27th, 2017. and "world wide exchange" beginb
beginsz right now. ♪ >> good morning. happy monday and welcome to "world wide exchange". >> a very good morning to you from me as well. welcome back, sarah. >> thank you. it's good to be back. went to sleep early. missed that craziness. >> can't wait to talk about it. >> but first on the global markets this morning, global stock having a bit of a pause moment after another strong week for wall street. s&p futures down one. nasdaq futures down six. busy week where we will get the state of the union from president trump. janet yellen will be speaking as well. after another stunning market rally. >> when you look at we've had 11 record closes for the dow and that meant every day last week. but the gains last week were very slight on friday for the dow and less than 1% as a whole.
i think you have to keep that in perspective that this isn't markets soaring, it's not falling. and the nasdaq was only up fractionally for the week. so the dow did lead the charge. it's not that we're off to the races again. utilities are the best performing sector as well. >> that goes to the point i was going to make which is the resilience and the melt higher despite what was combined in treasuries last week. the dollar pulled back, those are signs of warning and pause in the reflation rally. but stocks did not heed those signals. will they next week? that's the question. the yield is firmly below that mark. >> and flirted of course with the 230 level. but a slip lower in yields came
as german yields hit record lows. yes, there's also talk about whether trump's fiscal policies will take longer to arrive and therefore the reflation is a little bit more on hold. the step back from the 2.5s to the below 2.4s. worth noting on that note that of course wreere've seen a turn around more recently. it's eased the sentiment in france as macron looks a bit more ahead in the polls than previously thought. asian fratrade was negativer the most part. the yen was strong in the early part of the day. it's pretty much flat in fact. but the nikkei down 0.9%. and europe has lost some of that
positive impetus. france lower, jump germany and the uk slightly higher. let's show you what's happening on oil. big pull back reverses this morning. we have a nice rally wti crude. and 56.67. nat gas continues to tank. and as for the u.s. dollar, let's show you what happened after less than half a percent sell off last week. one of 584, but we'll see which direction that moves in. a lot has to do with yields there. lower. >> yields falling last week. 112.23. the pound down 1/3 of a percent. the scottish are preparing their referendum reports. >> and also talk of another weak
pound led take over deal potentially falling through over the weekend. so the pound a little bit soft and the dollar for the most part a little bit softer but higher against the pound. the bigger move for the dollar is against the em currencies. and it's been much more the emerging currencies that have bounced back than in fact the major currency pairs. >> i would say a sign of overall risk appetite is going to be tested this week. >> the dollar having three weeks in a row of gains, slight gains having declines rather than off to the races. >> gold has been marching a little bit higher, eve in the face of rising stocks and is at a multiweek high now. we'll see where that goes. very busy week ahead. let's have an economic report on the agenda. durable goods and pending home sales.
tomorrow, quarter 4 gdp, s&p and consumer confidence, on wednesday, personal income, the beige book and monthly auto sales and thursday the jobless claims. there's earnings central, sotheby's and hertz report today. now to this morning's corporate news, a berkshire hath way reported a 15% increase in profits this week. after warren buffett's highly anticipated share holders letter. he went after what he called tricks to boost earnings in stock prices but he did defend buybacks and reiterated his belief that investors should stick with low-cost invest funds and gave a shout out to vogel.
he'll be joining "crosswalk box" for three hours at 6:00 to 9:00 this morning. talk to him using the #ask warrenen. i wouldn't say any big headlines or departures which is why the conversation is going to be so key. they always talk about individual stocks that he owns like coca cola, wells fargo, american express and apple which has become a major position in that portfolio. >> i hope they get asked but particularly on the banking front. wells fargo, they still maintain a large position despite the scandal. he still has that big position. we'll wait for that three hours of warren buffett on "squawk box." moving on to politics. president trump will offer details on how he would like to over haul obamacare.
after they're under pressure to repeal and replace the health care law. they will meet with chief executives of insurers, and representatives from the bluecross, blue shield will also be in attendance. and other washington news, president trump's nominee for secretary of the navy has withdrawn his name from consideration, siting business intere interest conflict. president trump's looking for ways to bypass the world trade organization. he looks for ways to level trade sanctions against countries like china. while campaigning last year, the president called the wto a disaster. switching gears. the major mess at the oscars last night. landon dowdy is here to break down what actually happened
during the best picture moment. >> reporter: and in case you went to bed early or missed the last five minutes, it was one of the most awkward mess ups in award show history. in a shocking turn "moonlight" wonner the best picture oscar after "la la land" was named incorrectly. >> and the academy award for best picture -- >> you're awful. come on. "la la land." >> i'm sorry. no. there's a mistake. "moonlight" you guys won best picture. >> this is not a joke. >> i'm afraid they read the wrong thing. >> this is not a joke. "moonlight" has won best
picture. "moonlight." best picture. >> i wanted to tell you what happened. i opened the envelope and it said emma stone "la la land." that's why i took such a long look at faye and at you. i wasn't trying to be funny. >> now the incident is being looked into by the academy and they have over seen the ballot counting process for the past 83 years, releasing a statement saying we are currently investigating how this could have happened. the firm also says it appreciates the grace with which the situation was handled. now only two people know who the oscar winners are before the envelopes opened. >> i mean, what an extraordinary mistake and i have to say the way that earning the award
season is so pliticized, you come in with a smile with this mistake this morning. and poo th and. this is fairly amusing. they still won a few other awards as well, overall. >> if you're still there, i think it was notable that netflix and amazon were winners last night. this is a paradigm shift. >> you've got amazon's "the salesman." and netflix "man by the sea." and lions the big winner, and a big night for them and sillicon valley. but certainly a story of a movie ending, thats t's for sure. not a dull moment.
>> and he got a shout out in the opening monologue. >> i didn't see that. but the fact that he kind of noticed it. >> he saw it was for the best actress. >> right. still to come, stocks to watch from around the world. including reports the deutsche boersle deal could collapse. and slightly higher for the uk, germany, france fractionally. their experience is coveted. their leadership is instinctive. they're experts in things you haven't heard of - researchers of technologies that one day, you will. some call them the best of the best. some call them veterans. we call them our team.
welcome back to "world wide exchange." 11 straight record closes for the dow. that makes it sound like markets are soaring high. but for the week as a whole, the dow was up less than 1%. and the s&p up less than 1%. and that just gives you a little bit of pir spective. yes, they went high, but not soaring risk on trades that led them higher. as you can see this morning, pretty much flat in the futures market. the dow expected to open down just three points. bond proxies did well last week because treasury yields went lower. we flirted on the u.s. tenure. we're above that now, 2.33.
and somewhere from the 2.5% we hit two weeks ago. and yields in particularly germany have been lower and yielding what the u.s. yield curve has been doing. and hope trump's fiscal policies might come a little bit later than expected has caused an impact. the london stock exchange says its proposed merger with it deutsche boerse is unlikely to be approved by the commission. they asked them to sell 60% trade to satisfy trust concerns over the merger. they called it disproportionate. we work if the deal closes. the company could be valued at more than $20 billion.
takata may be moving to pay its victims of the exploding airbag. it's launching a program that will steer consumer einjured by the faulty airbag. more stocks to watch. michael kors and coach reportedly making it through to the second round of bidding for kate spade. barren says slowing sales could cause shares of harley davidson to decline. the customer base is shrinking and its international profitability haz been hurt by the strong dollar. and san pallo won't be -- said the deal won't enhance its growth prosspects. jenerali slipping 4%.
deutsche bank has cut its bonus pool by nearly 80%. in an interview with the germ ennewspaper, the chief administrative officer admits the cuts are tough for staff but the decision had been taken very consciously. deutsche bank hasn't paid the dividends in the past two years and reported a loss in the fourth quarter. the bank reached a $7.2 billion mergerer settlement with the justice department. could have been worse. still, employees feeling the pain. >> and the results of deutsche bank were disappointing. samsung launching two new tablets. it's first devices since recalling its galaxy s 7.
meanwhile, samsung postponed the presentation of the galaxy 8, which is set to be its key device next year. samsung share price up about half a percent in korea this morning. the 3310 model and hopes nustan nostalgia help them make a comeback. it turned snake into a cultural icon. it has a battery that last as months, the snake and that iconic ring tone. it does bring me back a little. though, technology has improved so much with the iphone. >> clearly the operating system is going to be very different. it's on google. but interesting. i mean requirit's another optio. if it has the two key features which is not going to crack your
screen and a lot smaller, then it might appeal to people who don't like the chunky phones. >> we'll see. >> nokia has tried lots of times of course and sold their cell phone business to microsoft and now a new start up has taken on the licensing. we'll see if it works. a preview of the week to come in washington. details from the president on when and how he plans to replace obamacare. and the optimism and the 11th record close for the dow monopoly. >> i'm going to say i enjoyed that mistake on the oscars and i'm sure he did too. hey there, we're looking at a pretty quiet day over the northeast after severe weather we saw over the weekend. especially saturday, just a cloudy day for boston, new york
city as well. into the mid-50s. we can't rule out pretty strong thunderstorms. dallas a few thunderstorms for you. rain moving into the parched areas of the southeast. we'll take the rain drops with the drought still in place. a few showers possible in miami and across the west coast, we're following a rain/snow mix and we could see minorer accumulation in the hills around the city. cloudy skies, temperatures heating up across the south. that's a look at your national weather. we'll be right back. know i think you own too much. gotta manage your risk. an honest opinion is how edward jones makes sense of investing.
mail letters, ship packages, all the services of the post office right on your computer. get a 4 week trial, plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. because i'm a woman, doou think i going to crack under pressure or conquer the field? defy expectations any day with always infinity. made with flexfoam, absorbs 10x its weight. rewrite the rules. always. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's iworth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter.
morgan stanley welcome back to washington and what's on the agenda this week? edward, good morning. >> yeah, there's a lot going on for the president this week. first and foremost, he's going to speak to the national governor's association today. and first on the list, talking bouts health care. last night there was a governor's ball where the democrat, virginia governor hosted president trump saying they're willing to work with him in order to have the best insurance and issues for the states go forward. now after that meeting, the president is going to meet with the health care ceos. so possibly coming to try to find some agreement or common ground in order to fix the ballooning health care kaiss. on tuesday, he's going to speak to a joint session of congress. he's expected to talk about
immigration. especially the travel ban he has coming up. and on wednesday he's expected, according to sources in the white house issue another executive order on that temporary travel ban. they've been trooiing to get it right according to the white house. they were expected to do this new executive order last week. it's been delayed until tomorrow. so they're hoping that they've dotted all the is and crossed all the t's so there will be no more legal challenges to the executive order. they're vowing to look at it and there possibly could be legal challenges to. >> is there the covers of the papers, wall street journal, gop leaders gamble on health law and hospitals looking to profit by keeping pasch nltients away. why is there a sense that this effort that they've been waiting for for so long is falling short? and what do we expect the president to say about it
tomorrow night? >> the repeal and replace. republicans and democrats are saying that if you just repeal without the replace, the system will fall into chaos. they're concerned with another travel-type ban chaos in the health care system. so they're trying to come up with a plan before there's a repeal. what that looks like is what they're going to try to hammer out today. >> maybe repeal and replace will be amended. thank you. edward lawrence in washington. meanwhile, wilbur ross, the u.s. sena senate, expected to vote on him this evening. they've said they will work quickly to renegotiate the free trade negotiation. he is expected to be one of the key people on these negotiations or renegotiations of trade
deals. >> meanwhile, president trump won't be attending the white house correspondents' dinner. he tweeted that he wished everyone well. presidents typically speak at the dinner. a major a-list event on the washington social calendar. the last president not to attend was president regan who was recovering from an assassination attempt in 1971. >> i wonder if they're going to do it? >> i'm sure they'll go ahead regardless. >> when we come back, the morning's top stories and round up. an epic fail at the oscars. fool's gold. according to the u.s. post. your path to retirement may not always be clear. but at t. rowe price, we can help guide your retirement savings. so wherever your retirement journey takes you, we can help you reach your goals. call us or your advisor t. rowe price. invest with confidence.
good morning now. markets point to a slightly slower open. >> we're on washington watch. president trump tackles health care as he meets with the nation pfs biggest insurers today. the top trending stories including the oscar going to the loser. we'll bring you that and so much more. you're watching "world wide exchange" on cnbc. ♪ because you're my boy baby
>> welcome to "world wide exchange" on cnbc. >> a very good morning from me as well. let's get right to the market action. 11 straight record closes in a row for the dow. that suggests that markets are soaring higher. last week we only saw 1% of gains for the dow as a week on a whole. the final record close was just 0.05 m 0.05%. >> if it rose today, it would be the longest since 1987. >> and led by defensive sectors. utilities was the best performing sector last week and up nearly 4%. so, a big move having underperformed more reeceantsly. the more negative story was
energy. century markets are flat. asia was disappointing. the nikkei was the worst performer, in the case of a stronger yen,all beit the yen is basically flat and has eased after the markets closed in asia. shanghai also closed the it best part of 1%. and has lost steam in the last hour or two. france flat but germany, u.k., and italy higher. oil is strong coming back from a big loss on friday. wti cleared .69%. and nat gas continues to get pummelled by weather that feels like spring. and pushing deals firmly below
230 and almost to the 2.30 level. that weighed on the u.s. dollar. let's show you where we are. 1.058. it's been riding on the political risks, particularly in france. the dollar is looking for direction. and the pound is a bit weaker. 1.222 and words of the scottish referendum. gold though is trading at multiweek high. gold is marched higher last week, partly on reports of the dollar and it really is coming back from the sharp slide we saw in the risk taking that came after the u.s. election. >> yeah. exactly and to go to back to the euro and in terms of the french
election, the story has been improving outlet to risk takers. as macron has slightly edged up against marie le pen. and they're dubbing it le relief rally and now back to below 0.9%. as fears in france have eased, puthsing the yield back. still one month and i'm sure people's fears will be reignited if and when she makes it to the second round and then the crucial vote likely to be macron verses marie le pen. tomorrow, the second estimate of fourth quarter gdp and the case-shiler home price index and consumer confidence for february. on wednesday, personal manufacturing index and monthsly
auto sales. and on friday, the ism services index. on the corporate front, snap is expected to price its ipo wednesday evening and the trade from thursday and then there's earnings central. su suthbyes will get best buy, shape shack. and the biggest market event of the week is going to be the state of the union address from president trump. this whole rally has been fuelled in part by hopes of the trifecta. tax cuts, infrastructure and regulatory roll back. clarity on tiling. you saw what his saying a phenomenal tax plan is coming within weeks did. it lit another rally under stocks. and we'll see if we get more detail specifics, timing out of this big address. >> and both houses of congress, both sides of the political isle will be there.
if he moves on to immigration and executive orders relatesing to that. in washington president trump will address the joint congress. and he'll talk about how he wants to repeal obamacare. today the president will be meeting with chief executives of the biggi insurers s representas which represents insurers in every state will be in attendance. the london stock exchange says the proposed merger is unlike laly to be approved by the deutsche commission. it asked it to sell its 60% stake in nts in italy to satisfy antitrust concerns over the mergerer. they call it disproportionate. so both shares are down about 3%
this morning and it's another hurdle for the deal that has a lot of regulatory issues around it. >> kkr is prepared an ipo of gardner denver. they could file as soon as this week. gardner denver was founded back in 1859. they took the wisconsin base company private in 2013 for nearly $3.4 billions. one of the most treasured products is being made in the u.s.a. again. has bro is bringing production of play-doh in massachusetts starting in the second half of next year. out sourcing all of its manufacturing. play-doh at the moment is made in china and turkey. they say it wasabon't in respon to president trump's election.
there we go. now to the buzz of the morning. it was an academy awards to remember last night in hollywood. one with an unforgettable conclusion. jennifer brooklyn has the wrap up. for several minutes it appeared "la la land" captured a seventh oscar. but it didn't. during la-la la"la la land's" ae speech they realized the presenters had read from the wrong card. the audience was stunned. >> very clearly even in my dreams this could not be true. but to hell with dreams. i'm done with it because this is true. >> reporter: including a best supporting actor win from ali, the first muslim actor to win an
oscar. la-"la la land" still came away with six awards including best director and best actress for emma stone. >> i realize that a moment like this is a huge confluence of luck and opportunity. >> casey afflec, manchester by the sea. >> reporter: casey afflec for "manchester by the sea." >> i'm just dumb founded that i'm included. >> reporter: and best supporting actress went to viola davis for "fences." >> i became aen artist and thank got i did. >> reporter: host jimmy kimmel welcomed unsuspecting tourists to the ceremony and sent a live tweet to president trump butted the moment that trumps them all. >> we didn't do this. you guys chose us. >> reporter: the mix up that gave moonlight a best picture win. jennifer, cnbc news, hollywood.
>> and of course social media bursting with reaction to the botch presentation and taking to twitterer to make a steve harvey joke. we know what to do because of course he botched the winner of ms. universe. tweeting amazing ending. wish that happened on election day. ouch. m. night shyamalan, i wrote the ending. i got them. >> hilarious. front page new york post. you feel for "la la land." but they won so many other awards. it's an amusing way to end what has been a really drawn out season. >> they're going toing have to apologize and explain this. >> i didn't know it was them who ordered the results. >> they always make that
abundantly clear. >> switching tone, sticking with hollywood. over the weekend, bill paxton. the actor is best known for his roles in titanic, big love and tom hanks tweeting bill paxton was simply a wonderful, wonderful man. schwarzenegger, my thoughts are with his family. jeffrey d. morgan tweeting he was simply one of the greatest people ever. to know him was to love him. they co starred in a mini series in 2016. >> "big love" was always one of my favorite shows. when we come back today's must-read stories and in the next hour, warren buffett's three full hours. send them in early this morning on facebook and twitter. u.s. the #ask warren and he'll
you won't see these folks at the post office. they have businesses toun. they have passions to pursue. how do they avoid trips to the post office? stamps.com mail letters, ship packages, all e servicic of the post office right on your computer. get a 4 week trial, plus $100 in extras including postage and a digital scale. go to stamps.com/tv and never go to the post office again. there goes my sensitive bladder. sound faliar? then you'll love this. incredible protection in a pad this thin. i didn't think it would work, but it does. it's called always discreet watch this. this super absorbent core turns liquid to gel, for incredible protection that's surprisingly thin. so i know i'm wearing it, but no one else will.
here's how he says it will work and not be harmful. he says consider arproduct that costs $100 to import. a 12% border tax would raise the price to $25. the importer would pay the tax of and then have $100 left to pay for the cost of the import. a 25% rise on the dollar would reduce that import cost to $80. that's 100 divided by 125 and it would raise the domestic selling price to the original $100. it's the basic mathematics of why he says the dollar will strengt strengthen as much as the border tax happens and that will completely offset that for the retailers of the world. they're obviously concerned because foreign exchange is not an exact science and they don't think it will actually happen.
but he comes out and says they shouldn't worry and this will be a major tax savings to pay for a corporate tax cut. >> the one thing that's clear either way is a tax on the american consumer in favor of the american worker, either way you look at it. >> and he says it shouldn't result in actual price increases on the american consumer because it's going to be offset by the american dollar. the question is does that actually happen and can congress actually bank on that. >> we're approaching the top of the hour so that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." it's a big one this morning. a special guest to tell us bouts. say no more, becky. >> that's right. it's griet see you. it's very early in the morning. 4:45 so i have a giant cup of coffee to get me through the morning. and you know sometimes we have a difficult time to get guests
ready because it's so early and people thinkya i'd be later in e show. 4:45 in omaha, guess who's here, ready to go. yeah. yeah. mr. buffett himself. warren buffett is here. >> what's the secret? is it the cherry coke? >> that does it. solved everything, actually. >> well, maybe -- i tell you what -- if you just sent me a question -- you want to ask the first question. >> i would love to. it's an honorer. was wondering given your ongoing stake in the bank, given the recent rally, why are you still holding it? >> yeah. it's the same metric i use for
buying any asset. it was a met rric that was hand down by esop, which is the present cash compared to the future cash and the cash you expect to get later on. he said a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. he didn't know what discount rate to use. boug but a bank is how much cash you're going to get between now and judgment day discounted. so there's no special trick in the valuation. there can be a problem in figuring out what's inside the bank and particularly with non-u.s. banks. that would cause us a real problem. otherwise i'm looking tat like it's coca cola or american express and how much is going to -- can come out of this business over the years and discounting it back to the
present value. >> andio you're still happy wi wells fargo now? >> we're not going to say anymore. we got a tease for the top. >> yeah, but you gave me a chance to speak with an absolot legend. sorry i went for a second one. >> that's all right. >> the button or two? >> no, a tease to find out what else we have coming up. but he's here and i never want to hear another complaint from any of our market guests ever. >> i second on that point. we'll be glued of course for "squawk box" which kicks off in 10 minutes time. >> i'll be more impressed if he watched the oscars last night. still to come big week for economic data and proposed economic proposals. we're back in a couple minutes. because i'm a woman,
welcome back to "world wide exchange." dow futures are down about 13 points, nasdaq down seven. this after 11 straight record closes for the dow. and global chief investment strategist and as impressive as the gains for stocks have been, bonds are also starting to rise, which means lower yields. can stocks and bonds continue to rise in tandem or are you getting mixed mesenings there? >> i think after 11 straight record sessions, you're going to have concerns when bond yields drop. again leading the u.s. lower. over 210 bases points over bunds. comparable development market type credit. the notion that the world is going to see higher disruptive bond yields led by the united states is taking a pause at the
moment. the great news on equities is that we ended last year at record high earnings levels already. that we were close to a 6% growth rate on eps. and getting to all time new record eps gains for all of 2017 is very possible even before any acceleration in the economy or tax cuts. >> you mentioned that we had record high earnings already. we pushed 11 straight record highs, closes of the dow already. but they have come in a more defensive nature. utilities the best performing sector last week. >> for the week. >> so you're not concerned that the record closes a slight gains each time and we're coming towards the end of this? >> what has happened since november with the sharp, sharp swing is very much focussed on tax policy, even on
infrastructurer spending and even that was a bit stretched. the drop that we have seen in bond yields to the extent it helps support utilities, staples, these sort of defensive bond oriented evaluations is helpful. but it shows that whole market was not terribly vulnerable and underneath us all, if we're managing to grow and we get tax cuts, i think we do reasonably well. we will not have a year where we came from collapse and a really steep drop of january/february from a year ago. >> do we need to be talking more about earnings, what we learned from the past quarter and what the outlook suggests? >> i think it's both. i'm surprised at how many people lookt add the oil price collapse and what has hap nds to earnings in the energy sector and call that an earnings recession when
it was really local. it's a related in industrial activity. the fact that we're back from that and that so many people are drawing optimism from that, it tells me there is a lot that was misunderstood about last year's economy. >> statistics for growth are looking better and the course valuations are lower. >> the problem is the currency. in the case of the euro, if you don't have a weaker euro, you may be getting it because you're covering short positions. you're seeinging it because of the carry trades because of concern about politics on the continent. and a good part of the rest of the world, if you believe that the federal reserve is going to do more than it is priced right now, the u.s. has issues too. it's pretty clear that if we were to look at stocks rel toov bonds, you can find market bond yields still with negative yields and if you avoid all that, we'll be in good shape.
>> president trump's first state of the union speech. >> focus on tax cuts and how it's financed. these basic issues on what sort of resolve is there? how broad? how big? and i don't know how much detail you get into in that sort of a speech. >> if the word border taxes comes up, is there potential for a big rise? >> that's a very difficult question to say exactly how much you get out of it. depends on what it includes. what is pealed back and whether it includes expenses for corporations. so many questions on this particular issue. whether there's a focus on financing domestic stimulus or not is a very key question right now. >> steven, thank you very much for joining us of city private bank. only 10 or so seconds left. for the next three hours. >> warren buffett on "squawk
good morning and welcome to squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm live from the market site in nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen. i'm all alone. andrew's off today but becky, we're sort of together. >> that's why they're playing it. >> we're always together. we don't need to be in the same place to be together, joe. >> mentally, spiritually, politically sometimes. you've got some sense. we're going to get to them in just a minute. 11 straight. you see that late day surge on friday was weird. it was almost just sort of needle andrew. i told him i knew you were going to be right. you've been saying a pull back for three 1/2 months but no. it didn't. >> you see the headlines today even in the journal. markets flash warning