tv Fast Money CNBC March 9, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EST
off, we don't know why maybe we just have to on some level assume that it's going to be a soft quarter if not year. >> and that's a tough way to begin at all. >> very hard to separate the trends. >> see you tomorrow. that does it for "closing bell" and "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq markets overlooking new york city's time square. traders on the desk. happy birthday bull market. the bull turned eight today. we've got names you can still by right now. jc penny is doing something very surprising. later in starbucks too political for its own good. the note making the rounds on wall street we've got all those details but first we start off with the drama in d.c. over the gop's new health care bill where we've seen split reaction from top republican leaders.
>> reporter: republicans have been name checking companies and ceos pointing to them as nonpartisan evidence that the affordable care act didn't work but today i asked speaker ryan exactly what was in the bill and what he can do to incentivize companies to participate in the new plan and how they can make money from participation. he said he actually can't do much but hss secretary tom price can. >> tom price for legal reasons can't tell you what he's thinking about doing. there's laws that prevent that. we can do so much deregulation through the executive branch by the secretary of health and human services. he put one regulation out the other day which will go a long ways towards lowering the cost of health insurance. >> reporter: karl rove said the affordable care act to write some 1,400 laws and that the bulk of the relief for the industry will come from that power but the challenge will be getting the industry doctors, hospitals, insurers on board.
now insurers support the deal, but the backlash has been widespread. take a look who doesn't support it. the american medical association, aarp, the american hospital association, the academy of ped at tricks and then several other organizations have also come out even the chief medical officer for medicaid broke with the department of health and human services and tweeted his criticism despite what he said political messaging. in the meantime other areas of the industry are split. they say there are things they don't like in the bill but there are also things that they can suggest otherwise. they want a very long wish list. they want more people to be insured. they don't want to be on the hook for anybody that lose insurance. they want young people on the plans, flexibility on medicaid and they don't want to see employer plans get weakened. that is a tall order for congress to tackle because the bulk of the bill is already written. goldman sachs says depending on how beholden congress is to campaign promises, they don't get this done by may or june,
they could just leave it all together and move on to tax reform. senate majority leader mitch mcconnell weighed in and the timeline for that to politicalo this morning. >> i think finishing on tax reform will take longer but we do have to finish the health care debate, up or down, win or lose, before we go to taxes. >> reporter: and all this kwaubling over health care worth noting is mainly on the house side right now. there's no telling how the senate feels about this. there is so much criticism leading up to the draft coming out on monday. i know they're all studying it but there could be a tug of war here. >> on top of all the trade organizations that you mentioned are already out against this plan, they're also a number of conservative organizations that are out against the plan, such as the catto institute. it all comes down to numbers. what do the numbers look like so far even if it's early going? >> it's really hard to tell. they need 218 votes in the house
and there's been some commentary today that surnt state of affairs it doesn't look like they'll get there but people can change their minds. some of this is political theater and being braggo about their views. there's the question of where the president will go on the road and how threatening his attacks will be in some of these politically vulnerable districts where he's going to be trying to sell this plan. we'll see how much support the president and the vice president can drum up themselves when they hit the road. >> thank you very much. let's put this all in context. we've got worried about the peace of tax reform. rates on the rise. crude oil falling once again today for its worse two day stretch since june, below 49 bucks a barrel and yet the market is flat. so why? which of these issues will matter most to the market? >> they all matter but i think the biggest issue in my opinion
is the contemplate essentialsy now that's measured in the vixes. obviously today sort of an outlier. goldman sachs put out a piece a week or so ago, people are foregoing insurance because for the last seven years they bought insurance in the forms of put premium and they've expired worthless. which, by the way, which is exactly what you want to happen but the market is saying, why do we even need to bother. why waste that money? i think complacency is a big deal. oil is a big deal. the two things that i will continue to look at is the russell measured 130. if it breaks 130 i get extraordinarily frightened in terms of the longevity of this bull rally and the transports as mentioned in the iyt. 160 is critical support. as long as they stay above that i think they're okay. you're definitely starting to see some concerns in the marketplace and especially about the agenda. >> you're worried about tax reform to get it done. >> because they can't just flip a switch essentially and go from
obamacare to taxes, right? you got to do the '18 budget. they're talking may/june. beginning that discussion about taxes. it's not going to be may/june. if they start then, the health care stuff in may/june, then you're talking about them working in the budget from may/june on and then maybe possibly they can get it done in '17. we talked about the fact that stocks have moved too far too fast and i think the market right now is just digesting that. you have to be very careful in this market. you talk about the russell small cap names are vulnerable because they're less liquid. money's going to stay a larger cap, liquid names in a market that feels like it's -- >> but why have stock moved? if in your mind stocks have moved because there's a better outlook or pro grow policies which is a portion if not the majority of it, will they continue to move higher and how much of that will be taken -- >> what's your answer to that? >> i think that it's pro growth
policies that have at least minimum 50% of the move we've seen is coming from pro-growth policies. i would say the tail end, pro-growth started that rotation into equities. >> you got to be worried about the rise in the markets. when you're hearing a laundry list of conservative groups already against the gop plan, a laundry list of trade associations against the gop plan, a laundry list of conservative congressman and women against the plan, you're a little bit doubt in your mind about this. >> if you go back and look at the laundry list of people that were against affordable care act what has the xlv done. it's run 170% from obamacare. ibb, 472%. so a lot of these companies come out against it but it's been a wind fall for them in their stock. >> i'm talking about the context of the ability of the administration to get the agenda done and move on to tax reform.
>> i attribute that to the sausage making process of politics. i do believe you'll have more democrats involved in health care than you once did republicans and i do believe tax reform will get done. >> pro-growth policies and you have to actually put one word in there, proposed. when we think about what we just heard senator mcdonnell say it's actually the conservative groups within the republican party that are going to actually kill this. they're already labelling, breitbart calling this obamacare-lite. to me i think you guys are going to see what a deal maker this new president is. if he can't get this thing done then all of this other stuff that we're talking about that has to happen, if you think a lot of this rally is 50% because of these proposed pro-growth policies that is really -- >> that's. >> you start off the show some days you get financials
outperforming, some days you get defense utilities so the market can go higher even with the -- >> here's another one. did you see the bloomberg story today, the republicans may have a hard time moving back dodd-frank. they got to pick their battles here. if they get jammed up with that it's going to be a real problem. >> to dan's point. they're trying to fight battles on many fronts. i would pick one and try to get it done but to try to fight -- there's some sort of order. but i think repealing and replacing the affordable care act is number one. if for whatever reason that gets stalled or delayed then to dan's point, all the dodd-frank stuff, everything else, all the fiscal stimulus. >> the president of the united states has basically stood on a ped stel and spewed out information about massive tax cuts, massive tax -- massive expectations for big cuts, big cuts and the market listened. just like they listened with
yellen when she mumbles a word when she impacts maybe her rate decisions going out six months. they're listening to donald trump's massive tax cuts on the horizon. if the market doesn't hear it -- >> do you think their constituents are also big, corporations in all of these states? there's going to be an agreement -- >> no matter how testy the process is over health care, tax reform will still go through? >> the reason why they have to go to the health care first because they pass that as a tax. so unfortunately that's the way it works. logistically they have to do that. is that a. >> i get that but what if it's a down vote, do they move on to tax reform and they're successful? >> i know they're going to be carrying the buck on this. they're going to have to figure out a way whether takes down vote or not, they'll have to figure out a way to get pro-growth. the biggest thing is going to be tax reform.
>> the first two months of the year s&p 500 earnings have come down by a dollar, that's 3% of where they were on december 31st. as we get into april we're going to get q1 earnings and guidance. if we don't have any clarity in all this stuff and it looks like this legislative agenda is jumbled up you're going to see that in the face of guidance. that could be the moment that investors start to blink because at the end of the day we spent the last few years, company's cutting costs and now they're talking about adding on new employees. you're going to see margins decline if you don't see revenue growth pick up and at that point you have a market trading at 20 times and i think it looks expensive with jumbled legislative agenda. >> let's bring in our guest zach carabel. we're having a very spirited debate. >> you are. it's almost like congress. >> where are you on this in terms of how it looks like at this moment in time for health
care to get done and therefore for tax reform to get done and therefore continue to underpin this rally? >> politically you led off with mcconnell's comments this morning and he said we won't get to tax reform until we're done with health care debate and for him to say up or down whether it passes or not, that is a damning phrase. that's a major signal that there's very little enthusiasm for this in the senate. you could've listened to senator tom cotton say today, slow down, wait for the congressional budget office to score this. this is too big a deal. you're getting a lot of noise that this is if not dead on arrival it's going to limp toward something and the question i think for this is, what difference is this going to make for the markets? it's going to shift to be fundamentals and that may be the case. what's really striking about all this if you compare it to the debates in 2009 how little this
is moving anything? vht is up. obviously the health care etf has done quite well but everything's done quite well year to date. i'm really struck by right now the almost complete detachment from a lot of noise, lack of transparency in washington and the markets aren't trading on it. >> maybe part of it look at it from another way when mcconnell says up or down no matter what, that that's actually a good thing, that it doesn't matter if tax reform falls -- if health care falls apart flat on its face in the house or in the senate, tax reform will still happen and that's what the markets are -- >> yeah, if you get a corporation tax cut the way people have been talking about. you're going to get the same freedom caucus, the same people in the house less than the senate who are saying we're not going to count instance any nonrevenue neutral tax reform. it's wishful thinking to go, we'll just deal with this health
care thing, you know, a third of spending and then if that doesn't pass we'll deal with the other massive thing which is tax reform. i don't believe and this is where i'm more with dan, i don't believe markets are trading on any of this right now or rather i could make a really good case for how markets are trading on things other than this right now. >> the case is financials could be up 20% based on fed interest rate raising cycle, the banks can finally make some money with the yield curve broadenning out. health care -- >> i could keep -- financials are trading off of deregulation. >> you could. the case to me has been made amply about why this is animal spirits unleashed by trump's election combined with -- it could be right. we don't get to replay the tapes. i just think in many of these sectors from commodities to energy to financials, health care less so because it's really -- health care's flat. so the anticipation of all this
collapses when washington reverts, dan -- you got to look at what's going to go on fundamentals in these companies i think. >> zac, good to see you. so we didn't even mention the fact that there's a jobs report tomorrow. which may be why the markets are virtually flat. what did you do today? >> i think this is a really good opportunity if you have gains and you're worried about really what could be a messy -- we're not going to replay this whole thing, a really messy political agenda and into a rate hiking cycle and a lot of things we're talking about tax reform but maybe that border adjustment tax. there's a lot of offsetting things. really good opportunity with the market up to take some profits. i'm looking to short things as a trader. i think there's a really good opportunity. we're not going to see fantastic q2 kwiedance and i think that weighs on markets. >> all the good news in my opinion is priced in.
there's only bad news that could be headline risk for the market. people have a crowded long position and a lot of these trump reappalachian rates you have to be very careful. >> you're more constructive on the political environment so what are you doing. >>? >> i've been long home builders and that's the hidden trade right there. >> coming up, starbucks political stance hurting the stocks. we'll breakdown the controversial call from a wall street analyst right after this break. plus jc penny making a big move to pull itself out of the retail wreck but is it enough for its investors? the bull market turned eight today. if you miss the move the traders have names that they say you can still buy. much more "fast money" right after this.
contentious issues in the past you can see that sentiment which you see in the blue line actually dips. the race together initiative, you see that dip there, the red cup controversy, you see the dip and again the announcement of the refugee hiring initiative you see that dip there. they say in the past when they've seen this dip in other companies, they have seen same store sales follow suit. should we be concerned? >> i don't know. if you live in new york city which i do. i walk around i see starbucks. you're seeing these sort of like exclusively little mom and pop pop up coffee shops. there's a lot of them up all around. a lot of customers from starbucks have gravitated over to those in general but i do think that starbucks does trade lower from near 55 bucks. it trades closer down to 51, 52 level. i think that the second half of the year, this is really a second half of the year story and i think it's going to be driven by their suggestion of
selling campaign they've been initiative. they just announced that they've ended that. >> starbucks is also injecting themselves into the political scene. when you say it's a one off. this is a constant. they're using the stock occasionally -- >> so that dip is not because of the refugee hiring initiative in your view? >> whatever stock gets political, we saw it with target, the stock loses 22%. there could be a huge effect on these stocks and with the country so polarized as it is now, starbucks they'll be another initiative or one after that. management wants to eventually run for president. i think that's out there. he's going to use that stock and pr. >> there is a silver lining here, east coast elites we get smaller lines for our six buck lattes. >> what? >> here's the other thing that's
more important, these guys have had their fourth consecutive same store sales in the u.s. i wouldn't say it has to do with schultz or any of these other sorts of things. >> same store sales, there's usually a boost. it usually takes a quarter or two to take effect. that's my point about these new initiatives that they launched. >> if you look at north america -- listen it's a mature business in north america. i think we all agree. it ain't growing. >> it matured already. >> absent these other controversies. >> these stocks started going down long before president trump even thought about running for president this stock was on the decline. this is just sort of the cherry on top. it's expensive at 22 times forward earnings. unless they figure things out, it's doing to continue to go down because margins are getting squeezed and comps are going down. >> bad aroma and coffee. >> what's that?
>> what's that? >> i'm moving on. shares of jc penny down 45% of the past year but the ceo says he's about to turn it around. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money." in the meantime here's what else is coming up on "fast." >> you want to see something really scary, we've got a chart that's got traders freaking out. we'll tell you what it is and how you can cash in. plus as the bull market turns eight, "fast money" is running with the bulls in search of stocks that are still bull market buys and we'll give you the names when "fast money" returns. at the right moment. and when you filter out the noise, it's easy to turn your vision into action. it's your trade. e*trade.
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tomorrow marks the first full job report under president trump. bren dan ross a hedge fund says there's one thing wall street needs to be watching. he'll be here to tell us what that is and later it's the name that dan says, get this, is the worst chart he has ever seen in his entire life, ever, ever, ever. he'll tell us what it is and why it's about to get even worse. jc penny tanking more than 24% this year as department stores continue to struggle a talk of a border jumt tax. hi, court. >> reporter: hi, there. jc penny is operating in a very tough retail environment especially for department stores and this of course is after coming out of a very failed and difficult transformation. the ceo added appliances to the department store last year. he says that it's improved the productivity of this area of the store and now he wants jc penny
to help you do a basic bathroom remodel. it's one of the six home services the retailer is testing in 100 stores later this month. 70% of his shoppers are homeowners so these are services that help them complete those home updates. it's also one area we know where consumers are spending. if a border judgment does go through those hvac and washing machines are not going to be enough to fend off the pain. >> it takes our tax structure from 170% corporate tax. so that gives you an idea of the financial impact to a company like jc penny and that's very consistent with other companies, companies like best buy, target, kroger, walmart. you name it, we're all in the same precarious position because we don't have manufacturing capacity in the united states.
>> reporter: does that mean there's no chance for profit? >> it would be very difficult. very difficult in the short run, virtually impossible. >> reporter: women's apparel is a quarter of jc penny's merchandise mix but it was the weakest category in 2016. ellison did say today that that trend has started to turn and when he said that we did see jc penny stock take a tic higher. >> thank you very much with that exclusive. let's take a look at this group. you take a look at jc penny and department stores. in and of themselves without any of the political headwinds around it and you think they've got a tough road ahead, they've got a lot of their own challenges here then you throw in border adjustment and how does that look? >> awful. comped continue to deteriorate, we had steve here a couple weeks ago, but once they figured out their consumers are customers will come back and you push back
i thought rightly so, why? i don't think they are coming back. they might come back in small numbers but not nearly in the numbers they need. for example, for jc penny to sort of get on its horse in terms of a stock, their comps have to be about two or three times what they are now. the only good thing about jc penny in my opinion is the fact that short interest is approaching 30% and you can make a reasonable argument that valuation wise maybe its cheap. >> retailers they do go bust. we saw the second bankruptcy for radio shack, circuit city. there's just too many of these department stores and this is stuff that can be found online, shipped to you for free and returned for free. >> you basically have a sea of trash with these mall based stores. you can pick your spots and find names like some of the discounters and high end retailers, the rest of them are in a plagued environment. i've said before, i don't think it goes through. you just heard it.
it would crush these guys. >> if it doesn't go through you would have to be a buyer of all of these names. >> this has been a huge play. this has been an amazon against the world type play and amazon is winning. we've known about that but this bat tax, target and the bat tax hit simultaneously and it worried everyone once again. a guy like marvin ellison from jc penny has invested interest saying it's going to be horrific for his company. it will. i don't think it gets passed. the whole space moves higher. >> so what are you buying? what are you willing to buy even the fundamentals don't look great on the notion that a back tax won't go through? >> jc penny when you hear marvin ellison talk about bathrooms, this is a former home depot guy. nobody knows that space better than that. stock price where it's at now, you probably take a flier on a jc penny in that sector in that space but if you look a tgx on
the other end of the spectrum. >> this is -- you can't move forward if you're just standing in place. it's an interesting thing to offer these services on top of the other appliances. this is what ellison says the female customer, their core customer wants, but i'm looking to remodel my bathroom i'm not going to jc penny, i'm beginning to home depot or lowes. >> it depends on when you do your google search. if you see something pop up and they position the brand properly, and jc penny offers you better services, a better price -- >> i don't know if it's better services. >> when walmart bought jet. there's a headline service. they're trying to get that headline we're building our business. >> but that was great for walmart. >> this scenario, i'm telling you -- >> i just want to mention this and we talked about this a little bit. costco results weren't that bad. i just want to say so most of
retail acts atrocious and there are a lot of headwinds and thought that were thought to be untouchable. costco, when you lose leadership like this in costco you can talk about a lot of the smaller names. guy mentioned children's place or something like that. >> that's like a rounding error -- >> i was just going to say. >> i didn't mean to jump in. >> go. >> that was it, brother. >> you sure? >> go for it, brother. >> children's space made an all time high today. last i look that was mall based so somebody's doing something right. good job. >> here's a related trade as department stores continue to announce mass store closures, washington prime down a whopping 22%, cbl and associates tumbling 19%, with growing competition for ecommerce and potential
interest rate hikes looming, is this another nail in the coffin. >> absolutely. i'd stay away. >> are they shorts? >> i would not step in here and buy this space at all. would i short them? i don't know. we're in a rising rate environment. money is not going to be allocated to the space and we've got a section of the world that are basically they're plagued right now so there's no manager that's going to put money to work here in a long-term fashion until the fundamentals change. >> i think what's interesting morning star credit had a report out if you think about all the stores of jc penny's going to close, you think that's a lot of store, they say that 291 malls with jc penny's as of the end of 2016. 6,700 are in the hands of smaller operators that do not trade. so maybe this is overblown. >> maybe it is or maybe a company like you mentioned ddr for example. even with the move down, even
with the move it's seen over the last six months that stock is still ridiculously expensive and oh, by the way, they now have a 5.5% dividend yield, if they start to cut dividends in these stocks, katie bar the door, i don't know who she is. >> she's going to bar that door. >> let's stick with retail. target hit a new 52 week low today. dan, what did you see? >> target this one has continued to go down since its earnings gap. let's get to the worst chart in the world and then we'll get back toorgt for a second and that is the xrp, that is the s&p retail etf, it's down 13% from its recent 52 week high. what's interesting to me here is it did have this constructive uptrend and higher highs but it's down about 13% from those recent highs. look at this air pocket here.
this looks like a classic head and shoulders top forming with the high 30s as a base. so this is one of the things -- this is the only sector that has really round trip the move since the election. they're telling you something about what's going on here with some of the pro-growth stuff. it's not resonating with the consumer just yet. so let's get back to target here today. the stock has really gone down to a really important technical support level. there was a buyer of a thousand of the april '52 and a half puts paying 75 cents for those. it looks like they rolled out of some marches. they were rolling down and out so maybe continuing some protection on target. look at this one over the last five years. this is what you would say a very key support level. that was that earnings gap. we had a lot of gaps here up and down. it tells you about the visibility and the competition that they're facing with some of their competitors like walmart and of course amazon. i want to make one point here. you've had this gap.
it's finding a level there. for some of you traders here who are thinking maybe it's a bit overdone, maybe they are going to have that period where people shift back in to it like we saw in walmart, this is the level, maybe use a 55 or so stop. maybe define your risk, use some calls if you want to take a bet in target. >> dan, thanks for that. >> that's the worse chart in the history of the world, that one right there. this. >> that he has seen in dan's history. >> dan's history. i apologize. >> he's only seen three though in his defense. >> still ahead. as the bull market turns one s&p 500 stock is up more than 2,100%. one of our traders still think it's a buy. tomorrow marks the first official jobs report of the trump era so what should traders expect and how should you
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we've got an earnings alert on ulta tanking. morgan. >> reporter: so ulta plunging after hours but last quarter 16.6% comp sales growth did trounce expectations so the call still going on, on the call ceo announcing a new partnership with he is take lauder to sell macproducts online and noting that mack is the top prestige makeup brand in the u.s. and the most requested at ulta. for the quarter dillon saying the beauty products retailer signed more members to the loyalty program. and that strong gift cards sales are what powered sales post holiday. the plan there to bring gift cards to grocery store chains nationally starting this spring. in q4 ulta opened 25 new stores, ended 2016 at 974 and this is one of the most notable things on the call so far, several of those locations that are planned
for this year, won't be in a typical suburben zip codes but downtown chicago, santa monica california and manhattan. investing in those markets executives said with the more expensive rents there. sales in 2016 came in much stronger than expected and that's part of what's enabling these investments in both brick and mortar and online. executives just saying on the call the expectation they're going to grow ecommerce by 20%. they are down 4% right now. thank you very much. >> is this your opportunity to get in on a name investing for growth? >> it's been a great stock. we all agree. but take a look at march 6th. why do i mention that? made an all time high of 281 -- don't pat troe nize me. reverse close. huge reversal day ahead of earnings today. reported earnings which i think
were fine and the stock was lower again. that tells me, maybe it's exhausted itself after tremendous run. at 35 times forward earnings it's not as ridiculously expensive as you would think but i think there's more room to the downside in this. >> 16.6% comp growth. that's amazing. where else in retail you're going to find that? they're investing in their ecommerce business. i looked at the stock and i say they're going to grow and invest in growth and maybe it's going to have on margins near term. it's the only place in retail or one of the only places in retail that you could be comfortable owning. >> what if choice is not and you have to pick something in retail? >> i'd buy it. i'd want to buy it. >> as you already know today marks the 8th ann verse of the bull market and despite falling after hours it's still one of the top performing stocks. other names on the list include united rentals up nearly 4,000%,
regeneron up near 3,000 percent, alaska air up near 2,600%, netflix up and priceline up. so are any of these stocks still buys even while ulta's out of it, can you apply that argument? >> yes. i'll give you two. netflix because i do think they're going to get bought. i think it stands alone on itself number one. number two, price line we've been talking about now for years. when everybody else seems to fall by the wayside they continue to do well. valuation wise, not so expensive to two work. >> i'm not a buyer of stocks. >> at all. >> no. i think you're going to get an opportunity in the next couple months to buy every one of your favorite stocks -- >> the same thing that happened
in the stock marketing for the last couple of months continues to happen. >> maybe. >> the rally continues against all expectations. >> yes, yes. i think that's what you're seeing. you're seeing this lack of initiative on behalf of the investment community right now. everyone sitting on their hands because they're waiting for the market to come back in. when everyone waits for the same thing, it never happens. >> whose waiting? >> everyone. >> really? >> you're waiting. you just said you're going to wait for a better entry. >> i don't know. >> you could've said that to pushback. you could've said that a month ago or two months ago. you either have to short the market or buy the market. if the market doesn't come in -- >> i don't think you have to do anything. >> what do you buy, no question you bite netflix. netflix they're going through this entire growth. that company within a year is taken out. maybe it's disney. i'm not sure who it is. that company's going to get bought. once they reach that sort of
pinnacle in their growth build out you're going to see netflix get taken out for a massive premium. >> i do like it. the number one performer -- once performed maybe these lists aren't going to be accurate going forward. priceline shows no indication that it's slowing down. if i was forced to pick just one it would be priceline. >> coming up. the hedge funder into a key to the small business. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc first in business worldwide.
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increasing their original estimate by 50,000. ubs and goldman sachs are looking at 25,000 higher than previously expected and believe it or not trump might be to thank for all of this optimistic. here to tell us why is brendan ross. good to see you again. you also think the numbers are going to come in better than consensus. >> i do. everyone's piling on to that fact. i think what was interesting about the adp report was jobs in manufacturing. manufacturing. how about that? maybe the u.s. is the new china. >> so are you of the belief that there are animal spheres. animal spirits are out there, people are very optimistic. >> there's something else going on. i think the uncertainty allows us to have our cake and eat it too. we have a job report and ceos are thinking where do they put those jobs, maybe keep them in the united states. maybe we get both things.
>> i'm just connecting the dots. the minute we have certainty, does that then mean things are going to be worse? >> maybe it does. the fascinating thing about uncertainty in that environment you're trying to hedge your bets a little bit. you don't know what he's going to do but you know what he wants you to do which is keep jobs home and maybe there is a prediction. >> you got to think about there's no data that suggests that 40 years of manufacturing going overseas from here is going to turn on the election of a new president and a lot of job owning. anything -- don't you think there's a chance that some of this recent enthusiasm and we keep hearing about it, is just that. this guy gets fooled. we're going to spend $20 billion and hire this many people it's something they announced three years ago. isn't there a chance it's a short-lived? >> sure. you've hired the people and put the plant where you're going to put the plant that lives as long as that plant lives. it doesn't go away. >> and you're going to put robots in there to do the manufacturing. that's where this is all going. 30 years ago we shifted
production overseas for manufacturing and because there was -- the supply chain was there. we don't really need that any more, right, because we're going to have automated -- >> you need construction workers to build those factories. you need service employees that deal with all the aspects of the factories. there are jobs that can be created in the servicing industry from a highly automated factory. >> we're going to live it there. thanks so much for your time. so everybody thinks as we went through what wall streets expecting things are going to be better. >> i think it goes higher. >> it still goes higher. >> i've been fooled by this market so many times i'm trying to be in the camp that, don't get fooled again. that's where i am now. everything we've thrown at it, the market as ratcheted back in a meaningful way. if you get a good number tomorrow. the president will come out and
say look at these job gains under my tenure just like after his state of the union. >> let's get your jobs playbook. >> to that point i believe the numbers going to be much bigger. let's call it 250 just to throw a number out there and look what's happened with the adp number. you had financials rally, materials rally, health care rally. so i do believe you'll see a redo of those same things that were strong after the adp. those things should be strong tomorrow after a much better number. >> i think we're doing short-term pop but it's short-lived. i'm really skeptical of valuations here. i'm not going to rush out and buy them. i like the financials long-term but i'd much prefer to own something like ut qs. liquidity's important. you can't buy smaller liquid names in the market that's this tenuous. i stick with the qs. >> i'm not a buyer here.
i'm not rooting -- i'm rooting for manufacturing here. i really would love to see it happen. i just think that it's not likely to happen at the pace in which people are expecting it to. >> more jobs means more people have more money which means people have visa. >> grasso has got his eye on one home builder that came off multi-year highs. find out what the name is when we come right back. ( ♪ ) it just feels like anything is possible here in upstate new york.
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time for the final trade. >> pulte homes. when you see mortgage rates at their high for 2017 it hasn't killed them. millennials moving out of their basements. basically half the normalized rate. looks like a double from here if everything clicks. >> it's been a blood bath in the energy over of the next couple days. xle is safe to buy here for a quick trade. >> xli that's the industrial etf. there's more downside. i think you see 62 the last couple months. >> what's this march madness thing we're doing? >> you pick which teams and there's a playoff and one. >> when does it start?
>> soon. >> oh, march. >> march is now. >> what's my final trade? funny you should ask. >> acm check it out tomorrow. >> thanks for watching. she you back here tomorrow my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> hi, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me or tweet me @jimcramer. all right. i'm sick and tired of hearing people spout nonsense about how this whole bull market, i'm talking about