tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC March 10, 2017 5:00am-6:01am EST
good morning. jobs in america. president trump gets his first economic report card when the february employment report is released today. we'll talk expectations straight ahead. breaking overnight, the president of south korea has been ousted amid accusation. entrepreneurs offered to fix an entire region's power network in 100 days or it's free. the details coming up. it's friday, march 10, 2017. worldwide exchange begins right now.
good morning. happy friday. on cnbc. i'm saari. i'm wilfried frost. >> it's new music friday. we're kicking off the show with the latest from charlie xcs. never heard of that. >> that's my wedding song. >> never knew who sang it. >> you need to know these things. >> now you sayt i feeley know the name. doesn't have the same ring as sir elton john. >> happy jobs day friday. let's check in on the global markets this morning. u.s. stocks did break their losing streak after three down days. barely. minor gains. looks like a lot more strength in the futures market. dow futures up 72 points. nasdaq up 16. will this make or break the week? we're headed for the first down week for stocks in a while.
got a bounceback with health care after a period of weakness. you saw the ten-year yield cross -- that's where the action is. >> for the week as a whole, down coming in today for the dow. the nasdaq is the best just half a percent for the week. shortly, shanghai down fractionally. japan down to the strength we have seen in the dollar against the yen. we'll come to the dollar boards shortly. hong kong up 0.3%. europe has been various bits of data out this morning. german trade surplus out at 18.5 billion euros edging past the consensus forecast. germany has the largest current account surplus in the world now. french industrial fell 0.3%
month on month short of expectations. uk the trade deficit at 10.8 billion pounds. about in line. still significant in size. more notable, though, january industrial production fell 0.4% month on month. it did grow year on year. but it comes off a six-year high that it hit last month. so the fall was slightly unexpected. 15% thereabouts of gdp. but something worth noting. the trend had been improving with the weaker pound. it's fallen month on month. something to keep an eye on. oil has been a big story. oil prices did close at the lowest level since back in november. below $50 a barrel. even though there's a little bit of a bounceback to the tune of almost a percent. we'll see if that holds. brent up about 3/4 of a percent. two-day negative move on oil. it was a pronounced move and got
the attention as we continue to see the breakout. we were in this mid-50s range pretty much all year long. we broke below that on the back of the higher inventory in the u.s. u.s. production coming into focus. >> we're down 7.6% on the week. on the surface, that sounds terrifying given the muscle memory of last year. we're still in and around -- even if we fell further from here and in the mid to high 40s, that's significant progress from where we were a year or so ago. it doesn't cause the question marks over provisions and loan failures to the banks we had last year. >> what we saw yesterday, the financials were the best performing group on the higher rates play. energy was the worst performing. of the entire index held up and wasn't exactly -- >> we're bouncing back today. >> the dollar has been stronger with treasury yields. really in tight ranges with the
u.s. dollar. the euro got a bit of strength from mario drag i's tone. >> a strong euro but you have the strong dollar against the japanese yen. it's been tracking the yield. 115.35. the yen has weakened and the dollar strengthened. the pound moving to its own rhythm here at 1.2172. firmer against the dollar. dragi was interpreted as mildly hawkish. nothing major. he did signal and acknowledge the improvements on inflation in the global economy. >> absolutely. couple of things suggested that next year could start to see the end of easing in terms of moving the guidance of holding at lower rate. that was the thing that investors focused on. when we talk about the rising yields, clearly a big rise in yields in the u.s. we've now got the longer end of the curve. the ten-year and 30-year not
seen since -- we saw the two-years -- the five years, highs not seen for five years. 2.6%. yet the euros ending the week on a stronger note. that's the weight of expectations. we priced in a hike. what we got yesterday was a sign with that stronger inflation data, with the stronger data, the easing isn't going to last that much longer. that was a surprise for the market each though that spread in yields at high level. >> the u.s. yields, as they tick higher, it signals the end of an era, right? the u.s. has been hiking rates, the yield was dovish -- they have 9.6% unemployment rate even though that's been a multiyear low. it signals that the whole period, which is interesting, in the 8-year anniversary of the bull market, from monetary easing to the fiscal authority
transferring. >> the capital raisings of banks, it feels like the end of an era. we should frame it correctly. it is the end of a short term cyclical era. i don't think anyone is betting that the long-term structural issues that the european economy has been solved. this might be a temporary setback. temporary step back. but a change in sentiment happening that of course, we saw in the u.s. a few months back. want to bring back the dollar board one more time and mention sterling. sterling hasn't got that support in terms of yields and policy changing. in a lot of the strategists on the sterling front suggesting if we fall further from where we are, if you fall below the 120 level, the 113, 114, something important to keep an eye on, we bounce back a little bit today, sterling a lot of people coming out with bearish commentary if
we fall further, we could fall more significantly from there. the february jobs report. the consensus forecast from dow jones for an increase of 197,000 jobs in terms of nonfarm payrolls, 227 in january. it's expected to tick down. it's been below the 5% level for the past four months. average hourly earnings forecast to rise at 0.3% after rising .1% in january. much better than expected. it could be that given the confidence boost across industry. jobs higher. one cautionary flag. there has been a government hiring freeze. the government is one component of the jobs report. that did add jobs, 2,000 last month. didn't take effect in january. we'll see if there's an impact in february. that was the missing link from a very jobs report last month.
there's nearly 100% odds that the fed raises rate hikes. >> anticipation of at least a decent enough number not to derail the rate hike next week. out of asia, the president of south korea officially removed from power today. the country's constitutional court unanimously upheld her impeachment for corruption and influence. presidential election must be held now in 60 days. the ruling sparked angry protests from her supporters. two people were killed in the demonstration in south korea. watching the south korean -- it did pop a little bit. it's the best performing asian currency of the year despite the political upheaval and also the tensions on the peninsula with north korea. >> and korean market is still positive like the rest of asia. this is the court upholding -- rejecting an appeal.
thoughts to watch. shares of ulta beauty sliding. the latest revenue and earnings did top consensus. the current quarter sales guidance came in a little light. price for perfection. it's still one. fastest growing retailers out there with sales up double digits. he will pollo loco -- informing of the board that he's retiring by the end of 2017. ver phone beating the street. the current earnings forecast came in light. the stock holding up, though, pretty much unchanged. more stocks to watch. zumiez, the current quarter weaker revenue down 14%. shares of fin sahr, revenue miss for the third quarter. the five optics equipment company coming in below
forecastings. mgm, taking over the pay channel epix. it's taking over -- they could buy at channel at $1 billion. coming up, nintendo may have won an extra life. we'll tell you how the gaming console may switch its fortune. stay tuned. you're watching worldwide exchange. we'll be right back. a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley
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welcome back to worldwide exchange on a friday. ending on a positive note. up by a third of 1%. 0.3% as we look at things right now. around about 58 points for the dow. it comes off the back of fractional gains yesterday where energy was the -- down about 7.5% for the week for wti. oil has been the under-performer. encouraging despite that and the energy sector declining that we ended flat yesterday. bouncing back a little bit today. let's look at the dollar. it's been an interesting point of note. yields risen significantly. the ten-year yield above. in general, given the u.s. dollar impetus to move higher, particularly against the yen. the dollar up 0.had% against the
yen. the nikkei performing well. the euro moved higher. it's moving higher again today. easing for the ecb might draw to an end moving into next year. divergence performance, but all in all, it's been stronger. the pound flat. there's been a lot of movement in europe. another defeat for the government against the house of lords which brought into questions about as and when article 50 might finally get invoked by the british government. here is uk prime minister teresa may speaking at an eu summit last night with a clear answer to that question. >> we will trigger article 50 by the end of this month. this will be a defining moment for the uk as we begin the process of forging a new role for ourselves in the world. >> all right.
in other global news, the chinese central bank governor holding a press conference at the national people's congress today. our eunice yun joins us with the headlines. good morning, eunice. >> good morning, tara. one of the questions investors have been wondering is how the central bank is going to be -- in light of the fact that they've continued to strengthen. the central bank governor addressed that issue saying the central bank had many tools in its toolbox to make sure the one remains stable. >> the fact that they were talking about, the central bank also said that part of the measures to try to support the i can't wan was try to try to sell down the foreign currency reserves and some of the hand wringing that we have seen is -- saying that investors should not be so worried about it and instead, that foreign currency
reserves are there to be used and not looked at. >> one other threat of questions that came up was about chinese out-bound investment. as you know, chinese companies have been complaining that some of their money has been blocked. a lot of the big investments. overarching there's a big national policy to get them to expand companies overseas. the central bank governor said that plan is still in place but he did say that some of the priorities are this way. he said that they wanted to make sure that some of investments would be supportive of chinese exports as well as for other chinese companies willing to do big business. he did say that sports and entertainment are not a priority. over to you. >> eunice, any reaction to some of the trade talk in united states? i know you got into that a little bit. where do we stand when it comes to u.s. and china and what are authorities saying on that?
>> the chinese authorities have been quite mum about anything new about the trade talk. obviously they're concerned about a trade war that could be looming. as of now, a lot of talk during the session has been -- one of the major themes has been economic reform and also the hope that this year is going to be much more stable than previous ones. >> eunice yoon, thank you for that in beijing. switching gears, elon musk is at it again. the ceo of tesla offered to fix south australia's energy issues within 100 days. if he can't fix the problems in that time frame, he will do the job for free. this comes as several blackouts due to storms in the region and energy prices to spike. local energy firms have been struggling to meet demand following damage to infrastructure. nintendo may have hit the jackpot with the launch of the switch console and the company legend of zelda -- both the
console and the game have been huge hits with fans. a top executive has been quoted as saying the switch exceeded two-day sales with any system in two-day his fri. official sales numbers won't -- researchers forecast the switch will ship about 8 million units worldwide through the end of the first quarter, 2018. stock jumping nearly 8% with the launch of this. >> super mario. one of the two in this world. >> super mario dragi the other one. i like the original. a roundup of today's political news plus beverage history has been made. we'll tell you what type of drink was crowned the country most popular. here is the national weather forecast with jennifer ka tag know. good friday morning. we're in one of three winter storms. today in the northeast. this morning snow spreading across pennsylvania into the
tri-state. into southern new england. out of here by this afternoon. several inches of snow up to a half foot in a few local areas. looking at the eastern end of long island. plus we start your friday with thunderstorms wrapping up by midday. they'll bring in cooler temperatures for the weekend. speesking of that, that's a big story. cool air on the move. chif 30 for a high today. in the southwest, a big warmup. in phoenix, headed to our first 90 of the season. get ready for the heat in the east. all about the cold and the snow. a snowy start to your friday in the northeast. jen carfagno. worldwide exchange comes back after this. i am helping 8 million taxpayers get the largest refund they deserve. one million people can benefit from precision cancer care. 197 million passengers can fly with less tuulence. i am on my way to working with one billion pple.
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a slip loaded with 30,000 tons of raw sugar is stuck on the east coast of mexico because of a trade dispute. they canceled an export to avoid reaching seasonal ex -- to avoid reaching -- the u.s. and mexico were in talks but that left when president obama left office. renegotiations expected by president trump. speaking of trade, canada's -- warned u.s. commerce secretary wilbur ross that a border adjustment tax would hurt business in the u.s. and canada. canada sends 75% of exports to the u.s. any border tax could have a major impact on the country's
economy. both free land and ross are responsible for negotiating the north american free trade agreement. the impact a border tax would have on businesses. sat down with our courtney reagan and voiced his concerns. >> it takes our tax structure as an example from roughly a 34% corporate tax to over 170%. that gives you an idea of the financial impact to a company like j.c. penney. that's consistent with other companies, like best buy, target, kroger, walmart. you name it. we're all in the same precarious position. we don't have manufacturing capacity that exists in the united states. >> does that mean there's no chance for profit? >> it would be very difficult. in the short run, virtually impossible. >> here's the ceo of columbia sportswear on with jim cramer
last night. >> we have over 40% of businesses outside the u.s. any time we talk about these things, which would be very bad for u.s. consumers, very expensive. we start talking about doing deals with other countries where we're doing business, we're going to get retribution. this is going to be bad not only for the consumers, but those internationally. we'll be -- >> speaking out against the border adjustment tax. >> americans drank more bottled water than soda last year than ever. bottled water consumption in the u.s. reached -- that was enough to put it over the edge. carbonated soft drinks slipped to 38.5 gallons. that shift amid concerns of sugary beverages and voting for a soda tax. really, it's been a long trend happening since 2006 or so when
the soda consumption was at 50 gallons per capita and bottled water was barely, was half of that. the two switched in totally opposite. >> i don't want to put you on the spot here. i wonder what the stats are for the united kingdom. i would imagine that water has been ahead for a long time. you guys are more of a soda nation. which is now changing. i think historically, other nations, european nations probably -- >> especially sparkling water when you count that. water with gas. >> always sparkling water. >> you can pretend its champagne. >> the world's biggest market share goes to nestle pure life. interestingly, it's not the number one in the united states. in the united states, it's dasani. owned by coca-cola. >> miss purified water. it's not spring water. >> right. >> like evian. which is by nestle.
they have the biggest portfolio. we could talk about beverages for an hour. >> sam pellegrino. >> also nestle. >> that's my favorite. >> perrier also. >> just so you know for the viewers. >> very much. >> sadly, not just on sparkling water. >> when we come back, top stories on the global market. but we will also get you ready for the job market. michael purvis is here. stay tuned. worldwide exchange. i want a glass of sparkling water now.
good morning jobs in america. tops the agenda. >> breaking overnight. the president of south korea has officially announced -- >> mazel tov. the details coming up. it's friday, march 10th. worldwide exchange on cnbc. ♪ >> very good. mazel tov. >> i'm learning. >> welcome back to worldwide exchange on cnbc. happy friday. happy jobs day. i'm sara eisen. i'm wilfried frost. we're starting your weekend with a new song from ed sheera n called new man. i know who he is. i didn't know the last person.
>> we'll check in on the global markets. u.s. equity futures, stocks were headed for the first down week in seven. could turn things around this morning if the strength continues. post jobs report at 8:30. futures are up -- s&p futures up 10 and -- >> down at this rate. we're down 0.7% for the week for the dow. this is about 0.3% for the month. >> we'll see what happens after the jobs report. oil is bouncing back. overnight in asia, let's show you what happened there. the japanese yen has been pronounced weaker move this w k week. that's helping nikkei. hong kong closed higher. shanghai com closed lower. it was a fractional move. the early action, indicates a positive tone as well. perhaps our cue is there. the germany dax is --
>> not quite enough to take european markets into positive territory for the week. down about 0.7%. we're nearly back to positive territory. >> the broader markets, oil prices have been key this week. slipping a massive 7.6% week to date coming in. two big days of declines for oil. but we are bouncing back a little bit today. a third of 1%. keep in mind, only just below $50. 49.4. although we've slid significantly this week, it's not that big a fall compared to where we were on sort of a 12-month or 6-month view. treasury, another big mover. well above 2.6%. just above it today. 2.609. seven-year highs at the short end of the curve in terms of yield. highs not seen since december. either way, the way that yields
have moved higher has supported the dollar. up about 0.3% yesterday on pace for its third positive session in a row. it had a third positive session in a row yesterday. the dollar is higher. particularly against the yen in terms of the major currencies this week. it's up 0.4%. the euro moving in the opposite direction. slightly more hawk i can tone than expected. suggesting that the easing policy that we've seen from the -- could start to come to an end next year. we're not imminent on that. we're slightly more hawkish than people expected. the euro out-performed the dollar in the last couple of days. slipping eight straight days of losses for gold. down about 2% for the week. on pace for its second negative week in a row. it looks like we're going to have a ninth day in a row with dee lines for gold. >> stocks on the back burner. that's been front and center. the ten-year yield past 260.
that's a level bill gross warned about, the signal of a bear market. we're sitting above that. things are pretty calm. the two-year note yield, that's at levels that we haven't seen since august of 2009. that correlates with the expectations of a fed rate hike next week. >> the two-year note has moved quite significantly. it has been around the highs -- interesting that the five-year note reacted quite a lot. it's at five-year highs whereas the ten-year and the 30-year at highs since december. we are just slightly seeing that flat -- it's starting to change in the five years picking up. will the ten and the 30-year pick up. >> we'll see what jobs shows this morning. >> breaking news out of asia. the president of south korea was officially removed from power today. the country's constitutional report did uphold her impeachment.
presidential election must be held within 60 days. the ruling sparked angry protests from her supporters. two people were killed in those demonstrations. now to our story of the day. the february jobs report. we're joined with what to expect with landon. >> it is jobs friday. three things to watch. first are the numbers. unemployment is forecast to tick down slightly at 4.7% down from 4.8%. the u.s. is expected to add 197,000 jobs last month, down from $227,000. wednesday's blockbuster adp numbers is any indication, we could see nonfarm payrolls continue that better than expected trend. >> sectors. forecast to be shown in the construction and services sectors and while manufacturing and mining sectors have been under pressure in the past, we're starting to see a shift as president trump promised to restore jobs to those industries. the third thing to watch. wages, average hourly wages are
forecast to rise .3 of a%. economists say there's a positive sentiment around hiring, as they are anticipating better incentives. with high stakes surrounding the report ahead of a fed meeting next week, they expect a reaction with the up side or the downside. >> what will the jobs report mean for the rally? >> joining us is chief strategist at weed en and coe? >> it's a key factor for the day. we've seen a rate hike priced in for next week. >> the job report has to be amazing to reprice the job market. the adp report stole the thunder i think quite a bit. the factor that i've been noticing as it relates to the ten-year and this rate discussion you were referring to, really is more, i think, about what's going on in europe right now.
i think it's important to point out that we don't really import a lot of the two-year from -- we certainly do as you go further at the curve of the ten-year. >> no matter what's driving it, will that be a pinpoint eventually for the stock market as we continue to see higher interest rates. >> without question. one of the things that all of the strategists are trying to figure out is how do real earnings and how does the market relative to real earnings, how those yields really play out if inflation continues to climb up and how much interest rate sensitivity is back in the market. back in 2013 when the ten-year shot up to 2.5 and 3%, you saw a lot of interest rate sensitivity, this is a few years later and you're starting to see a much more healed economy. at some point, that's going to factor in. if you've noticed high yield
credit -- they've been backing up a little bit there. that's one of the early warnings that the interest rate sensitivity is still very relevant. >> the way prices sit, is that a warning sign? >> no question. with the oil coming through 50, it's in my mind -- if we break those levels, you'll start seeing that oil correlation with emerging markets oil correlation with the s&p and oil correlation with lots of asset classes starting to creep in again. it kind of faded. but if we had this discussion years ago, these correlations were robust. they're starting to come back. if we break 48, this average, we're going to start -- >> we're talking about the warning signs, credit markets and yields and an 80-point rally on dow futures. yes we're down for the week but barely. about 1% off the record high that we saw on march 1st. the resilience of the equity
market, what is that telling you about whether it can continue? >> you know, over the next probably two weeks we're going to learn a lot. right now we don't have a strong follow-through on equities, you're going to see momentum indicators starting to confirm that the easy money in u.s. equities is behind us and we're starting to rollover there. we're going to need more than one nice morning up here. i think there's, again, to the interest rate discussion, as that ten-year yield comes higher and higher, the fed put will fall further and further out of the money. i think that's important. the easy money has been made year to date. are we in for a speed bump, those chances are increasingly likely. again, we're going to have to need -- i'm broken for what is the catalyst or cut out a bunch of dee sis sif fresh highs. >> michael, view on the euro
dollar? >> bullish euro dollar right now. i think the -- you get back to this rate discussion. but the real rate differentials between the u.s. and the europe are going to be increasing favorable for the euro dollar. >> i'm sorry. bullish the euro. >> great. michael, thank you very much. michael purr ves of weeden and company. time to get in top trending stories. mark zuckerberg and his wife are expecting another baby girl. the facebook co-founder taking to the platform to share the big news. share some stories about his childhood with his sisters. zuckerberg writing, quote, we're all better people because of the strong women in our lives, sisters, mothers and friends. >> co-anchors. >> can't wait to welcome a new one and -- >> mazel tov we said. >> yes. >> congrats to them. meantime, the duchess of
cambridge, kate middleton is looking for a new private secretary. her current secretary is leaving the post after a deck aade of working for the royal family. they haven't listed the open secretary role yet. lots of talk about this all of a sudden in the uk. her current private secretary is off to get married and -- >> you should go do it. really? >> no. >> i'm not sure it would suit me at all. someone, i'm sure, will be very excited. >> people love her. it's highly desired. >> also, i don't think -- a private secretary role for her, they usually promote from within the royal household. >> nothing has changed since the crown. >> that's what i learned on that show. >> there we go. still to come, the must read stories. as we head to break, a look at where european equities are trading. not quite enough to take european markets into positive
nomination include chief executives like starbucks, bob iger of disney, sheryl sandberg, the chief operating officer and oprah winfrey, chief executive of harpo, all of them denied a running or seriously considering it. but everyone ahead of the first primaries as did hillary clinton four years ago and it hasn't stopped anyone from speculating." people don't need to go to the paper to read it. because you've read the article. >> they're too juicy and good. naming names. jim stewart is going to be on swap on the street. this is a particularly good juicy column about ceos as president now that we have one. my pick in the financial times. it's title wilders' one man band heads for dutch poll destiny.
>> he's leeld not guilading in . he's likely not to be in the government. an odd system that the dutch have. this is an outline about the man and about the party. he's the anti-eu, anti-islam party leader and it's a background of how he's got to that position, the difficulties that the dutch are facing domestically. i learned a huge amount about his background and why the dutch are in this position. clearly, we're all focused on the french election which comes a little bit later. this is the first hurdle that you got to get over and it's going to be a good indicator and something that markets will be watching. >> what are the polls showing? does he have a shot? >> he's almost certain to get the most seats in parliament. he's likely to have the most seats. but almost all of the other parties have ruled out a coalition with him. therefore, the government going to be centrist possibly. depending how many seats he
wins, the level of dissatisfaction in holland and -- >> that's the pop list attitude. >> he wants to close all mosques in holland. he has to go around with security. he don't focus on it as much because holland is not as big of a country. he will have a big voice in the parliament in holland. he's been labeled the antagonist in chief because of that. he's not likely to get into government. it's on wednesday the dutch election. >> get up to speed. sounds good. >> wilders. the top of the hour. getting set for "squawk box." >> thanks for telling me. >> i don't say it every day. i thought i should give him creditme creditment. >> sara, you need to smack him back. >> you gave her grief for saying
the entire thing was read. >> you talked longer than she did. you got to be kidding me. >> it was good. >> by the way, i'm standing up for sara here. you big mouth. >> mine was way more interesting. let me tell you guys every guest on the show today. just kidding. we have a big show coming up because it's jobs friday. it's a very important day coming up. we know that adp was better than expected. this will be a strong number too. this matters because the market is anticipating at 100% that the fed is going to raise interest rates next week. if this number disappoints and expectations have risen, we don't know what that's going to mean. definitely something to watch. there is the countdown. 2 s 2:41:30 to go. governor pete rickets from nebraska will be joining us to react to what he's seeing in his state as well. we're going to be joined by
former secretary of defense william cohen. he's going to talk to us about national security with what you're seeing in south korea overnight with the new leader. how does that even change the calculus with how we're dealing with north korea which is probably our most significant foreign policy issue. you're right, russia is at the top of the list as are china too. we'll talk about the increase in defense spending and richard la frack on. he's the co-chair on the president's advisory group. we'll talk to him about infrastructure and what to see. i got to throw this in. i said i was going to tease every guest. andrew mudder. i don't understand why people punish themselves like this. you say oh, cool. >> i'd like to do one. i've never done one. >> they came down electrocution things. sounds awesome. >> i just want to -- i was timing that. i have to say of the three of
us -- >> i talked the longest. >> it was well worth it. it's a great show coming up. >> i'm sorry. >> we look forward to it. >> you gave her grief. it's not the talking. it's not fair. >> she deserves it now and then. >> kick him under the desk. >> that's par for the course here. >> "squawk box" in ten minutes time. still to come, some shin kicking under the table and forecast is calling for 197,000 jobs on the nfp. we'll discuss that with daniel di martino booth in a couple of minutes. that's why i have the spark cash card from capital one. with it, i earn unlimited 2% cash back on all of my purchasing. and that unlimited 2% cash back from spark means thousands of dollars each year going back into my business... which adds fuel to my bottom line.
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and we get to make great games. ( ♪ ) what i like about the area, feels like everybody knows each other. and i can go to my local coffee shop and they know who i am. it's really cool. new york state is filled with bright minds like lisa's. to find the companies and talent of tomorrow, search for our page, jobsinnewyorkstate on linkedin. there's a bold campaign promise to create 25 million new jobs over the next ten years. today marks the first full month under the new administration. will the results deliver. danielle di martino booth is
here. her new book, fed up, is the must read of the weekend. what do you say for jobs? >> i'm looking for upside in the jobs numbers. it doesn't have to do with the adp report. if you consider that a lot of the surveyors, people surveyed. small businesses, large businesses, they appear to be following through on the soft data, if you will. and actually adding their payrolls. i'm looking for upside as well as downside in the unemployment rate. >> we've seen president trump take credit for various jobs prints. the stock market rise. he took credit on wednesday when we got the earlier jobs numbers. do you think that's fair? is this an extension of the job gains we saw in the final year of the obama presidency? >> i think it's a confluence of factors. i'm not sure that trump owe nomics is the entire factor driving a lot of the job creation.
customer inventories are at a ten-month low. there is a ton of uncertainty going into the election. if you're going to rebuild the stockpiles nationwide, you have to put more people on the floor. indeed, what we did see inside the adp numbers was the strongest amount of jobs since 2002. there's a rebuild going on which implies in the future there could be a downside in the nonfarm payroll numbers come fall if there's not follow through on the part of trump. >> to break it down further in terms of sector. construction should be good. we saw that in adp because the weather was warm in february. on the other hand, government jobs, there's been a federal hiring freeze out of washington in the trump administration. i wonder if that will filter through. we saw a gain in government jobs in january. >> that's altogether possible. i think the other outlier and we're not -- i think probably the statisticians who are crunching the numbers are having a difficult time with the retail
sector, sara. just because there are so many stores closing at the same time. it's a seasonally weak time when you close your payrolls after the holiday season. there's several swing factors to throw the numbers off. >> what about the markets? how do the markets move with a chance of a fed interest rate hike at this point? >> it depends who they believe. bill gross or begun lack. -- a 3% handle or -- what upsets the apple cart of the we'll have to see. march is definitely baked into the cake. you would have to have an armageddon, double digit nonfarm payroll number to put the fed on hold at this point. are we starting to price in that fourth rate increase come december because the third rate increase is at 50/50 odds. >> where is there more room for surprise in terms of what comes over the next year? is it with the fed or with the
ecb? we've seen a strong dollar but not against the euro. >> i think that the ecb is going to be slower than what we think. really the market is not anticipating that they begin their so-called -- until the first quarter of 2018 and it might stretch through in the first quarter of 2019. i wouldn't look for dragi to pull rabbits out of his hat. the shear level of enthusiasm suggests it's the highest since 1983. you have to go back quite a few years. the shear amount of enthusiasm among households suggests an under shoot on the unemployment rate and it could rev up the fed that they're going into potentially december and start to talk about shrinking that balance sheet. i think we'll be looking for language that alludes to that this coming wednesday. danielle, thank you. have a great weekend. money strong and author of the new book, "fed up".
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in 30 years. setback. a little bit. it's jobs friday. we're going to tell you what to expect from the february employment report. remember that report on wednesday. this is going to be fun today. friday march 10th maybe. you never know. 2017. it will be fun. we don't know if the jobs numbers. "squawk box" begins right now.
good morning everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on c nx. we're live from times square. i'm becky quick with joe kernen. the jobs report is due at 8:30 eastern time. forecasters expect an increase of 197,000 jobs. the up employment rate is expected to tick down to 4.7%. we should point out that a hotter than expected private payroll report led some to raise their forecast. remember, adp was 298,000. that was more than 100,000 more than the market had been anticipating. moody's expect 275,000 from this number today. goldman sachs upgraded theirs. we'll get more predictions