tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC March 10, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EST
pays for themselves. let's see how that happens if they don't do it. we asked secretary ross from the commerce department. he wouldn't bite on. stocks are pretty muted so a lot of it is baked in at this point. we'll see what happens next. >> what a run since the election. we'll see you monday. here's the half. welcome to the halftime report. our top trade this hour, the trump bump, another strong jobs number sending stocks higher. why some say golilocks is now back on wall street. with us for the hour today josh brown, tony is here as well. the chief market strategist also with us on set today paul richards, the president of medially global advisers. let's begin with the employment report. 235,000 jobs created last month. it's only up 28 points now. why. >> we had that nice pop early on. people sitting long obviously
hit the sell button and took some profits. we're in that mode now for the last, call it since the president speech before congress every time we see a rally it's pretty quickly met with some selling. >> what does that tell you? what are we waiting for to take that next leg? >> people want to do tony's trade. they want to take profits here and hope that they can buy it back a little cheaper. we'll see whether or not that plays out. i have done that with calls and had stocks call away and haven't chased them back in and waiting for them to pull back. most cases they haven't pulled back. >> people are afraid to get in here. let's go to the white house quickly and the president. >> hello, everybody.
i want to thank each of the house committee leaders for being us with today. your devotion and leadership has been amazing and i want to applaud you and the diligent work of your committees to advance the obamacare repeal and replacement legislation that we have been talking about for a long time and that we have been running with and i ran with and i can tell you and that's what people want. repeal and replace. the bill passed just now thruways and means and it will, i think the committee just voted recently. energy and commerce. and it was a very good vote. and congratulations that was a good job. amazing. we must act now to save americans from the imploding obamacare disaster. premiums have skyrocketed by double digits and triple digits in some cases. for example arizona which i talk about all the time, 116 going up
a lot higher. that's the year it was meant to explode because obama won't be here. that's when it was supposed to be, as bad as it is now it will get even worse. today one third of all counts have only one insurer on the obamacare exchanges and the exchanges themselves are a disaster. the house repeal and replace plan ends the obamacare tax hikes cutting taxes by hundreds of billions of dollars. it eliminates the obamacare mandate that forces americans to buy government include plans. and how they're spent giving power for washington and back to local government which they all want to see do a much better job.
the plan empowers individual americans to buy the health insurance that's right for them. not the plan forced on them by government. you all remember you can keep your doctor, you can keep your plan and no, you never heard that, right but it was said many, many times and turned out to be not true. this is the time we're going to get it done. we're working together. we have great results. we have tremendous spirit and it's something that is going to just happen very shortly. >> that of course the president of the united states meeting with house leaders at the white house about the health care bill as the president finds himself now in the middle of a developing battle between the so-called ryan wing and then more conservative members of the house. what do you make of these comments. >> very controlled president trump there scott. you saw him flanked by kevin brady on his right hand side. that's the man whose committee was working late into the night in order to pass this week.
this is clearly just a cheer leading session. that's when they're going to plot the legislative strategy for the other pieces of this. crucial lits the third piece of obamacare reform after they do the piece moving now and regulatory reform and they imagine an additional piece of legislation or several that are going to follow on. that's what they'll be talk about now inside the room so we'll wait and see what they say when they come out about what the strategy is for the rest of the year. >> at the white house for us today let's get back to our conversation. i apologize for having to jump away there but you have been calling for a pull back. do you think that the reason the market activity has been mostly more muted lately people are afraid to put new money to work. >> historically they happen from
some degree of fear. so pinned around the 11 to 12 level with the weekly momentum indicators and investors intelligence bulls and greater than 60% five weeks in a row until this last week it's tough to make that conviction trade so it's money that will come out very quickly. >> from the retail investor point of view we're always advising them don't try to time a correction and you're going to get a correction of maybe 7%. i'd be surprised if you see differently. >> are you saying -- i'm sorry. are you saying that you think we're getting a correction soon. >> i am. i'll tell you what i think the trigger is going to be. it's going to be the ten year yield. as it breaks above 260 and starts to crest toward 280 that's the thing that market participants will pay attention to. >> which is no surprise. >> debate it right now.
i don't always disagree with you. >> i think the focal point is wti crude. it's continued inability to stage much of a game from 50, 51. it's now a 49 handle. >> it's below 49 now. >> this is what is bothering the market. this is why we have gone nowhere in marchand big rallies have been sold because if the narrative is an expanding global economic and all over the world continuing to do well this is the fly in the ointment that upsets people and they say why isn't oil acting better then? why isn't the demand for oil acting better? and we know it's a supply issue so that's what they say. when you see wti start to fade in the middle of the day it starts taking down stocks. it's an incredibly there.
it's the yield because we have seen stock rise. but so far that's actually been supported for stock prices and for financials. >> the narrative isn't working for the market going up based on economic enthusiasm because industrials, energies and materials have been underperforming throughout this entire rally to josh's point so this is more of a money coming into the market than money wanting to become offensive into the market. you're missing the positive catalyst of earnings because you're in the quite period going into the second half of the third month until preannouncements come out and until then you don't have the flavor of what it's going to bring in the form of earnings and i think earnings are going to propel this next leg higher. >> from you, why isn't the
dollar stronger today on a really good jobs report and now even more expectation of the fed moving next week. >> because it plays the whole thing about directions. we have known each other long enough that i love big corrections in the market. this is a year we're not going to get them. the low volatility environment we're seeing is because the macro environment globally is stable. as long as we can get through in may which should be fine. >> that's exactly what he said the other day. that's the only thing. >> well i'm proud. >> get it out of the way and there's nothing ahead of you. >> when there's nothing. >> exactly, no. >> >> there's so many identifiable catalysts for a correction that's when you want to be a buyer.
this is a unique situation. china is stable. we have animal spirits and we haven't seen the details of trump yet. >> so now you have 4.7% unemployment. now you have 2.8% wage growth in february this year so now you have gary talking about we're just starting and this is not the old trend this is a reacceleration of wage growth and employment growth. this is manpower. this is the largest publicly traded company that helps fortune 500 and small businesses with staffing because staffing gets really hard. when wages are growing up. look at that 50 day trailing it. this is the trade if you think we're seeing an acceleration here. you get man it's breaking 100 now. typically you want it as they
get above triple digits because people are less likely to sell them and you can trail it with that stock. take about five or six points in risk and these are types of trades that can start to work. three of the six best performing stocks in the s&p, look at honeywell and boeing and the types of trades that will keep working as long as this gets a lot of attention. >> this reaffirms everything that they're trying to do. the problem, the risk is getting too cautious too soon and it sounds like you're worried about that too. >> i want to make this crystal clear last time i was on the show. i am not negative. there's no way you should be negative and play defensively and all move to cash with this fundamental backdrop.
and all of this stress indices rising. that's not happening. what i'm talking about is a better tun what makes you think it's going to work. >> there's four indicators that we use. you want the stocks above the 50 day below 40%. you want i it below 45. >> the correction will have already happened. >> is this the bigger decline? you're forced to rerisk.
if you're already levered long going into the correction you're forced to derisk. i'm just saying come back to a normal position. if you're offensively sectored, positioned in sectors, neutralize it a little bit that way when it does come down even if it's 3% you can get in the game. >> except if we have the 3% correction, 3% higher from here. on the sector standpoint the offensive sectors as you pointed out, energy, materials and industrials have not done well. but the animal spirits are alive there. >> they told our brian sullivan that the worse was certainly
over. they're getting ready for a massive ipo. >> completely collapse. >> here's the point. when we're talking about oil this week going below $50, anyone paying attention to anyone else for shipments to real rig count and u.s. production has been waiting for this moment for two months. >> it's telegraphed. the world is so good. everyone is playing the same play book looking for the big corrections and we can be sitting here in two or three months and saying we missed it. >> so since we don't know if we're going to get that correction, we all run portfolios. and i have been seeing this for
weeks. you can still find stock. >> or you go into europe because you asked about the dollar earlier. the dollar is not rallying which the fed is going to love right now. i think you could see the euro go to 110. your in a good situation for european stocks. >> that's why you have to be convinced. my job is to convince institutional investors that the fundamental backdrop is not going into recession. >> why would you get out of the way though? >> you're out of the way. >> it's good. >> right now i'm market neutral. i really mean it. it's not like i'm overweight defensive sectors. you're just looking to get more offensive. it's not like i'm out of the tape and i get out because we're going to have a 4% correction.
that would be nuts in the current environment. >> i just feel strongly that this is one of the toughest parts of investing. it always feels like we should have a correction. it always feels like this is too good, too far, too fast. one of the worst things you could have done for yourself historically over the last few years is get out and what ends up happening is you chop up your returns. as we know returns don't occur on a schedule. they're streaky and come out of nowhere. the post brexit period great example. the post election. another great example. in the middle of all the of the moves you felt like i better take some off but they kept going and they don't let you back in sometimes and so your returns after a year of doing that or a few years of doing that, the danger is, you now have 7%. >> i upgraded the market three days before the election. not because i thought donald trump was going to win.
i'm nowhere near that smart. you had nine down days in a row. you had a historically oversold market. nobody thought you were going to go up again. you had the elizabeth warren fear of higher taxes and now a historic run. my only point is don't get offensive now. just neutralize. i'm not saying sell and liquidate and go defensive. just neutralize a little bit. >> when you look at the cme gives you the projection for next week's fed move, right? it's at 100%. was that 100% before today's economic numbers. >> it's priced in.
if that's priced in he's more right than bill gross about we're not breaking out to 3. we're going to pull back on the yields. let's see next week. >> that's going to get people wondering what they're missing. if yields are going down. >> it's going to be what david temper said about central banks. europe is an anchor and pulling us down. short-term, you should be selling german two year is what you should be doing because it's a negative yield down there. it's ludicrous. >> paul good to see you. thanks for coming in. >> here's what else is coming up on the halftime report. >> next up, unusual activity in the oil market after a tough week for the commodity. see what it says about oil's next move. plus the number one rated stock analyst in the oil industry on what stocks investors should buy after this week's big drop for names like chevron, transocean, marathon, conoco and more.
the halftime report is back in two minutes. with help from our advisor, we made it through many market swings. sure we could travel, take it easy... but we've never been the type to just sit back... not when we've got so much more to give when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. ameriprise what are you doing? getting your quarter back. fountains don't earn interest, david. you know i work at ally. i was being romantic. you know what i find romantic? a robust annual percentage yield that's what i find romantic. this is literally throwing your money away. i think it's over there. that way? yeah, a little further up. what year was that quarter? what year is that one? '98 that's the one. you got it! nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. ally. do it right. let's get out of that water.
of the show as we broke 51, also reflected in the option of wti. it's just exploding. it puts people rolled down from the 50s down to the 45s. probably in case we get down to the november lows that were at the 43 and change level. this was the volatility level of the crude oil contract. it's the cboe's ovx and this had a big spike this week. tuesday of this week, here we were below 27 and then we peaked just over 34. now that was the 100 day moving average. as soon as we pierced it we reversed and now take a look at where we are. that's about 34 and almost 35. now we're back to 3087. a big storm hit. people panics and bought puts
and drove volatility higher and now they're easing out of the trades. so it could be especially a one or two day move that this is the lows that we're going to see for awhile improve just like paul richards said at the end of the last block. >> i wonder what the implications would be for some of the big stocks that trade on that number. he is with ever core isi. he's the number one rated analyst on the street. welcome back. >> thank you. >> do you think we have reached a near term low at 48 and change? just below 49? >> we're pretty close. you pointed out we had a brutal week for crude oil because we had fresh data that suggested not only are inventories rising but they're at record levels too. both relative to demand type basis but we also have to remember that the u.s. market is not the global market for crude oil. it's only about 20%.
we're not saying it's not the most transparent market because it is. they have actually declined in europe and asia and the oecd. either way, what really matters here is the path forward and we're still very constructive. we think the demand can remain robust and deliver on its place to cut output and then inventories will decline in the first half of 17. we can't prove it yet. we still need the move and that energy stocks which have been awful this year are going to recover and they're going to out perform this year. >> what's a number you would start to reconsider your ratings which are virtually out perform all the way from top to bottom? >> well, you're right. we're constructive but let's remember brent declines from here a little bit more, for instance if we're wrong and the next move is lower it's likely that opec will rollover supply arrangement and we'll see better price in the second half of the
year and these are not just stocks that work. these companies have taken the pledge to be more disciplined with better corporate governance and we think they will be good multiyear stocks too. >> doug, a couple of names you're talking, how are you? a couple of names you're talking about there at least by historical standards and full disclosure i own marathon, really expensive by historical standards. a lot of this is a seismic change in how they're being valued. particularly with the mlp structures involved. do you see a change in how they should be valued? >> we do and you're hitting on probably the most important point for the stocks. historically you could get the earnings correct but as you
indicate, the midstream or mlp component have become pretty significant so they're going to look expensive because current year earnings are low and that's the reason you have to use more of a hybrid type evaluation and those are the names we're recommending at this time. the conventional approach hasn't worked in the past and we find these stocks are inexpensive. >> appreciate the time. we'll see you soon. >> what do you think of these picks? >> there's players that can't afford for it to get worse. you can look at that as the oil market version of the old put. i'm not sure if it will work but it's interesting. i think bigger picture you want
to be long the big players in the space. you want to own a basket of them without a doubt. chevron could do better than exxon over the next quarter. i couldn't tell you, but overall these are companies generating a lot of cash flow and paying good dividends and buying back stock and these are the type of stocks that are working and could continue to work. >> this something that feeds into my overall market opinion. you want to look at this space when it's weak and not when it was ramping after the trump win. here's why. a year ago when everybody was fearful of energy and energy stocks you had a global economic and it's opposite day now so you're getting high yield debt pressure because 13.5% of the hyg is energy. >> up 213% in a year but down
15% in a month. another wall street analyst is weighing in on what has been the darling of the tech sector. which way will it move the stock. find out in the call of the day. it's coming up. ge is at the top. boeing at the back. we're back after this. ♪ mapping the oceans. where we explore. protecting biodiversity. everywhere we work. defeating malaria. improving energy efficiency. developing more clean burning natural gas.
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a very old agreement. it doesn't really deal with the mexican economy or the u.s. economy or the canadian economy in their current forms. so as a minimum it needs an update. >> >> a freight train derailed and caught fire in iowa. it could be seen from miles away. some homeowners were asked to relocate. two people on the train, the conductor and engineer escaped without injuries. an amazing find in cairo. they discovered a massive statue of the pharoah ramese ii. the statue whose head was pulled from the mud and ground water by a bulldozer was discovered by a german egyptian team. they have been excavating that since 2012. i'll send it back to you. they think that is about 3,000 years old. amazing. >> five years work but good pay off. >> exactly.
yes. >> sue with the headlines. five days and a fed decision with the expectation of janet yellen and her crew raising rates. a strong possibility. our senior economics reporter comes along next. first brian sullivan is here with a look at what's coming up. >> power lunch now live from new jersey and washington d.c. today and we will speak with congressman kevin brady as chair of the house ways and means committee. he's the most influential person in congress for the new tax laws. google, microsoft, facebook, pushing it higher, we are talking big time and despite the criticisms here's a question, are the cleveland browns geniuses for trading a very expensive quarterback that they might not even want? lee sheer to talk about the brock osweiler gate. halftime report is back right after this.
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trading sessions jumping 1.8%. energy also rises 1.4%. and the s&p 50 up .72%. as for individual stocks when the jobs report beats expectations between 35 and 55,000 jobs check it out. up about 2% pfizer also trading well. now back to scott. >> okay. with the jobs report now behind us let's look ahead to next week's big fed meeting. steve joins us now with more. is this a done deal now? >> it was a done deal beforehand the number it had to be was very weak and it more than exceeded that. >> so do you think that the market some what muted reaction to it was a great number, it was
a perfect number maybe the tone of whether we think there will be three if not more hikes this year. >> the market and the fed are on the same page when it comes to the rate hiex if i could share with you just a single chart here. >> you just happen to have that. >> go ahead. >> >> that's the other one. sorry guys. >> i wanted to get to this later. perhaps there was another chart. >> few things are better than you giving us a chart. >> exactly. >> what it will show -- there we go guys. 132. 137 will be a fully priced in december rate hike as in a third hike so the difference between the market and the average fed forecast, not that far. we're already there. the playable question here from where i stand is not the two or three hikes it's the three or
>> and yet it's high enough to start to see employment out of the oil patch and take off the boil some of the financial concerns that we have. i think 50 to 55 is going to be okay with the fed. we're down now in this 49 area. i don't think they'll be too concerned about it. they're going to watch this and see inflation reaching up to the 2% standpoint and not going too far over it. you think that the hike next week is baked in. >> absolutely. >> is more baked in? >> i do think it's baked in but when you get past three, let's talk about this for a second because we don't talk about adjustable rate mortgages and credit card debt and there's a lot of it out there. it doesn't really bother me that much but i see the payments go up with each hike. does it worry you that the average american is going to see some much higher interest expense a year from now. >> i don't think it does. what the market is telling us is that growth trumps rates maybe by a factor of 3 or 4 to one.
that's what i wanted to show you was the labor force participation rate. >> there was a maximum of one chart bordering on zero. >> oh, i'm sorry. if i was to bring it up, it would be that people are coming into the work force. there we go. 340,000 additional people into the work force. okay. so take that idea of people paying a little bit more on their mortgages or a little bit higher price with the idea that what you find is that soem 2 million over the past year are now back in the work force and many of them back working. that's a big deal for economic grow growth. more so than rates. >> one of the things that's important is number one the fed is never paused when your real fed funds rate is already moving higher but let's look at the reasons the fed had been historically accommodative. disinflationary forces. that's not true anymore and weakening global economic activity. that's for sure and lastly a
lack of fiscal stimulus and not having any new regulation is being considered fiscal stimulus so you're not in a situation where you say we're historically accommodative. >> let me provide all of this which by the way i do not have a chart just for the record. look at where the fed is going and the estimate is the fed is on board for that. >> it's much more important the shape of the yield curve versus the level of rates. if you take the plot at the current level and ten year note yield at the current level you're not going to invert the curb until the middle of 19 and it's 15 months so you're still talking 2020 until you get a recession. >> if there's a recession.
>> a lot of runway. >> the fed has to feel freer than it has in such a long time based on the trump agenda and what is happening. donald trump bald oiled out the. donald trump comes along and proposes this massive stimulus plan which is what is needed. >> and they were begging for. >> they were asking for it. >> time and time again when asked for congress they begged for it. they said you guys need to help us out on fiscal. >> they were doing that every appearance on the hill. the federal reserve is now raising rates and the market doesn't care. >> ecb bailed them out too. >> we're done. >> sorry.
>> i'm in charge. >> have a great weekend everybody. >> ahead in the blitz the trades take a look at the most actively traded stocks on the new york stock exchange today. promise. there you go. we're back after this. what's critical thinking like? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter. morgan stanley i work with people everywhere
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day decline since december of 2014 employees of the bank are pressured to meet revenue goals. the environment described in that report is very much at odds with how we run our business. shares down over 4% right now, scott. >> trader blitz now. up to out perform. josh you own it. >> this is a stock that pulled back. it's been consolidated. it's been taking too long. i'm waiting for this thing to start to move higher again. hasn't happened so maybe today's note will be the catalyst. i also have the asian asset to the company. >> you own this one. downgraded by bmo to market perform. >> the basis of the downgrade is the competitor was down this week. the reason he did badly is because they're doing well.
get on board. >> all right the guy that spends half the winter on the ski slopes and the other half on the skis. >> getting you to be loyal to that brand. whether it's park city or vale or beaver creek or whatever, that's been working. blowout top line bottom line they raise the dividend 30%. stocks just off to the races. >> all right. shares soaring over the past year. pulling out more than 10% over the last month so citigroup reiterates that now is the time to buy it. what does our desk think about that. it's our call of the day. we'll discuss next. take a look at the fresh 52 week highs. halftime is back in two minutes. i have access to the oil markets and gold markets.
nvidia has tripled in the past year. josh, we're going to you, for obvious reaps. you picked this stock and saw it rise traumatically. what do you do now? >> i still like it for all the original reasons. if you recall, this was the company that really this design wins in every important space for semi conductors for what's going to happen to technology the next 10, 20 years starting with video games, graphical
processing units, gpus. important things like that. then everything from virtual, ai, machine learning, cars that drive themselves. all this stuff requires the types of chips that nvidia, frankly, is in the best position in the world to sell. none of that has changed. the stock doubles, pulls back 15%. this is going to be a live by the sword, die by the sword type of stock. there is going to be volatility. it's a big grown-up company. tlas there's a lot here to like fundamentally. if you're a short-term trader, here is the setup. 95 is where that beautiful uptrend, dating back to last summer, breaks down and things go murkier. if that's where you want to set your stop on a closing weekly basis just below 95 may be the way to do it. longer term investors, ignore the volatility. >> scott, do you have an opinion
on this. >> what they're doing on the artificial intelligence side, judge, is amazing. what that means for cloud. microsoft calls that project olympus. that's going to be huge, just like mt. olympus, judge. >> thank you, doc. >> that's somewhere over there in italy. >> quit while you're behind. keep going on the stock. >> i like the stock and i like microsoft even more. i don't think they've had that significant a pop as nvidia has had. of the two, i take microsoft over nvidia on the potential here. >> how about among chips with this stock up 40% since the election alone in a world in which amd is up 93% since the election? >> very low base. >> intel, smh is up 13. >> i'm long intel. i like that one on the upside. i'm seeing some pretty good
perkilation per percolation zblfrg i just said about nvidia you could also apply to amd. they're going after all the same stuff. cloud computing. and not abandoning the pc business, which is now stable and not a terrible business to be in. but look at amd. design wins with alibaba, google. you could own either stock. amd made a huge move. this thing was priced for bankruptcy a couple of years ago. the whole thing has been flipped. balance sheet cleaned up, new ceo. you can own either name. i own both. >> a quick break and then final trades. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go!
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markets close in about three hours. we'll get to final trades in a second. let's talk snap, though. >> sure. >> a little more than a week in the young company trading publicly. >> and options. volatility was up around 160%. friday, 250%. even higher on monday this week. now that volatility is compressed dramatically, dropping into the 60% range right now, heading even lower than that, even though it's a hard-to-borrow stock. >> tepper was on stock, saying
he liked the company. maybe that it was in no man's land right here. >> volatility -- >> stock has been down since that moment. >> volatility collapsed but so did volume. everyone who wanted to express a view on it the first two days, have had that chance and now there are less people interested in it until it goes to 15 or 30. you know, got me but like that just seems to me like anyone that had a very strong viewpoint has probably done what they wanted to do. >> buy it or sell it. >> right, right. >> josh, give me a final trade. >> i'll reiterate amd. a stock that will be very volatile but the longer term trend, you look at a weekly chart, this stock has a lot of room to get up into the higher teens and hopefully, over the years beyond. >> i know i sound like a broken record about gm. in the context of the jobs reports -- >> that's the best you've got?
>> it's good. don't sell it short. this is good. >> you did it yourself. >> think about it. jobs are created. job security, household formation, babies being produced. minivans need to be bought. i'm not kidding. also construction employment was up 58,000. and that's consistently going up. they need pickup trucks. general motors. it's a no brainer. >> is that how it works on the farm? >> i own gm trucks. >> farmer jim a little too revealing. >> by the way, really big trades in gm, too. so jimmy might be on to something. >> very unusual. >> yes, very unusual. >> you have a final? >> yes, cisco. bought in big numbers and i followed in on cisco today. >> a number of stocks hitting new 52-week highs today. lennar. we like this? >> for the same reason as gm. purchases of housing has to go
up. >> rogers. the demographic is coming into the age bracket where they'll start household formations. >> you don't care about interest rates? >> not yet. you heard me tubing to steve. i'm thinking about it. >> great weekend, everybody. "power" starts now. >> it does. a perfect ten, what the white house is calling today's job report. east german judge found one scary stat inside an overall good report. we'll let you know had an that is, straight ahead. plus, you'll hear exclusively from one of the most powerful men in washington right now, house ways & means committee chairman kevin brady, the man responsible for writing the tax laws, will join us. and we found for you one of the most beautiful market comebacks ever. you want to know more? i'm sure you do. i'm brian sullivan a