tv Fast Money CNBC March 14, 2017 5:00pm-6:01pm EDT
afternoon. a lot in store for that meeting. >> also interested to find out the bond level. >> what is priced in? >> exactly. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> "fast money" starts right now. overlooking a snowy times square, the traders on the dreks teem seymour, karen finerman, guy adami. the banks are up nearly 25% since president trump was elected but is now the time to cash out ahead of the possible fed rate like tomorrow? it is a contrary yandle call from the chart master himself. plus, oil sinking. another crude collapse ahead. and later we'll talk to the head of a $20 billion pension fund who pulled a billion from hedge funds including ackman.
first we start with the final countdown to the fed tomorrow. it could be a make or break rally. they are expected to make tonight third rate like in the past decade. the question is simple. what do you buy? how does this major market moving event? >> i think you have to stay the course and i think you have to look at the trans ports and the iwm. both are now showing signs of weakness. they've been showing it for a while. what do you buy? i think you stay in health care. the ivp hangs if there like a champ. and banks are now on the precipice of breaking down and i think they'll talk about that a little later. i think there's another leg to the bank rally. >> if you believe in the story fed could overdo it, i think banks will be the last year to fall of i think as rates go higher, i think you have a place bank there's continue to outperform. i think the valuations are the most dependable. i think the comps look pretty good. i agree with guy.
he talked about 130. it is around 133 which is another important level. look at the charts of high yield credit. look at the hyg. those charts look almost identical is that that tells you something that at least you can watch in terms of the banks. this is something driving all price action. >> so if you don't want, i think you need to be cautious. you had a reversal. it was relatively hot. if you look over year over year basis, you see the inflation tick in but the bond market did not respond. so you have a sell the news scenario tomorrow. i'll bet you that's what carter will talk about. you have to be careful. what do you do? you buy puts. vix is still low. >> the vix is still low. i want to be long in the other stuff in my portfolio so i need protection. i think names like facebook,
alphabet, it doesn't really matter what the fed does. it should not affect them certain. ly they don't have any balance sheet issues so it is not like it's a problem. the bank rally has been really strong bust it is so warranted. the banks were starting to turn anyway but you couldn't ask for a better recipe for a bank rally than what trump laid out. who knows what will happen but the fed will raise rates. that seems highly, highly likely. that's a great thing for banks so i think there are real underpinnings that you can hang on. >> are we worried about the decline in the price of crude? or is that still, that's going on by itself and the rally is the rally at this point. >> i think you have to be the concerned about it. exxonmobil if you go back 18 months or so, exxon started to lead the way higher while crude was still floundering. within a month, crude oil started to move to the upside.
the exxonmobil has been weak since i wanted to say the beginning of this year and now crude is trading in the economy. it is an $80 on it on. a tape that has been side ways to higher. i believe and i've said it that exxon is trying to tell us something. i think the crude will turn when exxonmobil finds its legs. >> it was a big mover. we saw oil had levels not seen since november 30. this part of day is potential warning signs. then you throw fed in tomorrow of you have to believe they'll be on the right path for the right reasons meek economic growth. >> economic growth is why the fed could be more aggressive. if you look at the numbers. look at the housing numbers. you name it. we've had very good numbers. i think you're starting to see some wage gains. it gets to where i think you have some cover in terms of earnings potential and sectors like health care, like consumer and discretionary. the global back drop to me is
part of what's very good. the question is the fed going to squelch out this rally? right now those are the trades that to look most imperilled and they're the ones i don't think you need to jump into tomorrow of. >> you have a situation that we had a couple years ago where you have the dollar. if the fed raises aggressively, unsee the u.s. dollar rise. you can then see yields start, high yield bonds start to fall and then oil start to drop. so you get that perfect that storm scenario. so i think that is a very big risk is the fed is too aggressive. i think you need to be cautious. >> why thanlt dollar moved higher? we're at the top end of the range and the dollar is not at the top end of the range. if anything we've gotten this guidance that the fed has just begun. >> the dollar hasn't done anything in 18 months or so. i think that's a lot of what the euro is doing so other central banks starting to talk about
maybe coming off the gas pedal a little bit. if the fed is the most aggressive out there. and you get people starting to pay back dollar denominated death. there's a shortage of dollars. >> not that hedge funds are always right, because clearly they're not. but they're loaded for a move higher in the dollar. a sharp move higher. the shorts and bonds are back at record highs. and the five-year -- >> so what, one of my many concerns, until now, can the fed raise us into a flattening yield curve? frankly, it didn't matter six to nine months ago. if the fed is on a series of rate likes, as he has said they are. could they raise us, could they put our economy in some sort of peril? >> what do you do tomorrow?
>> what do you look at on your screen as you're looking had for the screen? >> definitely look at volatility. if there is a term out of volatility market trades off, maybe sell some protection. i did sell a little anthem. i don't know what to make of the new health care plan. i think it was amusing. they probably the wouldn't love that support for it. i think it is really going to look like at the end of the day. i sold a little of that and we'll see. the bank there's react. to guy's point, i think we could see that for a short period of time ifbl inflation is here. so i think that we're going to be seeing rising rates and i think we'll see ultimately -- >> things that i'm watching, the eem at 38.30.
the dollar strength will be a factor. if you think that the dollar is sideways, and i think that this positioning you're talking about on, rates and on the dollar is exactly why these aren't going higher. i think positioning is scream. and i think it is working against them. >> the banks have been the winner. our next guest says cash out now. here with a contrarian call. >> it's not, the two things were god given will the year started. where positioning was guaranteed and every one believed it. crude was going higher. and rates were going higher. >> forget about crude. >> let's talk about banks. the banks broke out. we know exactly why they broke out. it was post election. nasdaq bank index and russell 2000. about 400 stocks combined. you have this huge move.
all right. fast forward. what they've done since, they've done absolutely nothing. meaning, chasing it from the end of december to now. has given no results. but worse than market. so top panel. s&p 500500. all of them. they consolidated and broke out. yes. that's a fact. here's the relative performance. they've done nothing compared to the s&p 500. no results. you might be up but if you're not in the market, they haven't done anything. this is big ones. it has broken out to a new high and has fallen back. the relative performance. equities no, results. same line. nothing has happened since december 12th. regional banks broke out to new highs. yes. no results. not nothing. it all happened so quickly
they've not gone higher and nor has crude. yields. what has happened is that the ten year, the orange. it is possible you don't get a lot of movement after tomorrow's activity. the let's look at the facts, real facts. here we go. the s&p 500 financial sector, there have been a total of 33 instances right here where they have raised rates. how does sector do six months forward? 4.4%. that's of all six months periods. how does it do after rate likes? i think you fade the bikes here. >> i think we invite carter
over. bring the chair. and i think these guys on the desk. three out of four of you guys in financials. >> except when i look at when the market has done relative to financials for the last five years, they have so much ground to gainful the fact is, i think the big spurt was really just getting to people where momentum. >> sure. so it depends, you could have picked morgan stanley which is very rate sensitive. goldman is up 3. it is going to be, who is the most rate sensitive. who will get the biggest bump if there is more movement. it is quite possible the aggregate have priced in more than what is coming. there are a lot of people the that don't think it is what it
will be. the question is financials, they've not been a good bet rflt they going to have a new uplay beating the asset class of which they are measured? >> that would be my question. your chart shows the sideways action for the next couple months. >> now, i'll see this. is that poe tlings building a base? what is the percentage that could be building a base for the next leg higher? >> i don't know the answer. i think what will determine it is the relative performance. in a rising rate environment to suggest it in the first place. >> a lot of other things besides rates that drive financials. you look at jpmorgan. >> you have underwriter. you have the credit card business. >> taxes.
>> at the height of the financial boom, when financial is the biggest part. we'll probably never be used again. you're not talking with that kind of levels. is there a relative valuation trade? that's very possible ask maybe a longer term thing. what i'm talking about, trying address. is there going to be a commensurate move that's outsized in banks? and i'm not sure there is. >> when did you get out? >> i got out, probably about a month ago. and it is primarily because it hit my target. my price target. but i will tell you what i did today. i came into this. i've been short bonds for probably a couple months. i covered my bond short. and tomorrow i'll be looking to go long which is effectively a short of the xlf.
i think serve on one side of the boat. we've made this big run. and i think we're seeing the top. >> so sell now. does that mean that it is a short? >> i think as a relative play to the market, it is not good. i would rather be underway if you have to expose to all equities. i would rather be underweight on financials. >> coming up, snap beefing up its ornlgt content with a new dating show by vice. that didn't stop the stock from hitting the new low. plus, crude falling again today and it could have far-reaching implications. we'll explain and tell you how to trade it. and later, mark levine. the head of the pension fund. we'll tell you why he pulled his money from bill ackman and what it would take to get hill to give it back.
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>> reporter: that's right. exclusively for snap chat, up next, hungry hearts. an eight episode series hosted by the star bronson. the food show. he'll act as a match maker and send couples on dates. this is just the latest content and partnership from snap chat which is airing shows nearly every day, building out a range of formats including documentaries, dramas. it is helping grow its ad revenue beyond the $404 million it reported last year. now e-marketers projects it will grow to $770 million. this year, 1.3% of the u.s. ad market. well, for vice whose backers include disney, a & e and fox, this helped strengthen the digital distribution. vice saying the deal on our expansion will see originally
aired shows keeping us in the forefront of the burgeoning mobile content market. meanwhile, analysts are still concerned that whether the company can grow its user base and reach profitability. but here at south by southwest, we're certainly seeing a lot of snap spectacles as well as snap codes. the little logos as the range of brands try to engage consumers on the snap platform. what's happening with the trade? >> can you look up? i don't know if you can see us. what's going on here exactly? >> it is weather tuesday -- leather tuesday. green leather tuesday. >> you have a leather jacket on as well. so it is a growing club,
apparently. >> a power lunch. >> wow! >> can i get into that club? >> well, you have the matching pants. >> funny you should mention that. >> thank you. >> let's talk about the trade in the stock. what's going on with what was supposed to be the hottest ipo of the year? >> well, it was too expensive. for one, and i think they talked about a great job getting it done. it traded up nicely. i said it would trade to maybe 30. it traded to 29 and change and could head back down to the ipo price, one or two days away. it is such a bull market stock and so much froth and then a little froth has come out of market. that was enough. >> i think it is 17. you look at it for a trade. he was saying, he would get back into it. i suspect everybody else who bought on the ipo and sold it
will probably want to look to at leaf support it there. for a trade, that's what i would look at. >> i was reading about this dating show. it will be a hosted show. there will be two people a first ca date. they're eating spaghetti now, holding hands. and then he guesses if they'll go on a second date and then they reveal if they're going on a second date. that's right up snap's demographic. >> what can i tell you? the bachelor had a big finale last night. >> i thought we were heading toward, would you rather. >> that would have been good. >> that's snap's demographic? >> yeah. real young people. >> that's why it is hard to make a compelling argument. real young people don't have real money to spend. i think it will retrade 17. and i tell you what, if twitter
never happened, i don't think the analysts' community would have been as negative as they are now. once it happened -- >> $17. i realize, 17 was arrived at because there was some price send it and it arrived at a number. i'm not sure we evolved at a valuation. just because 17. >> so that never should have been the line in the sand. >> that's what was priced. they would come back in. >> the underwriter might want it. >> it will go down a lot harder. >> maybe it bounces to 20 or so. >> this is a stock where we're all grasping at valuation. and i'm not sure why you have to grasp when it is still in question. >> tim would be a great host for that show. the steely blue eyes.
>> i would recommend everybody to go on a second date. >> really? >> i don't know. it just seems like what they do. the bachelor ended last night. i don't know what to do with myself. kidding. >> oil falling to its lowest levels since november. you're watching "fast money." first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what's coming up on "fast." >> "fast money" is hitting the hardwood. in search of stock market glory. "fast" money madness. and squaring off on what could be the best consumer stay. plus, why he pulled his money from bill ackman over a year ago and what would it take to invest again.
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welcome back. airline stocks got hammered today. one trader is betting more than $4 million on one of those stocks right there could surge as much as 20% in the next three months. we'll give you the name. later, our "fast money" madness. we'll see who brings the most heat. but first, oil falling to its lowest level since november after saudi increased levels. bob has more from the nyse.
>> saudi arabia said its production had increased to just over 10 million barrels per day. that was more than january but the saudis said it was still within the agreement with opec. president trump had wlunch the crown prince of saudi arabia. butter they insisted they were still committed to the production cost agreement. regardless, the market clearly believes there are cracks in the saudi commitment. that adds to a long list of crude's troubles. higher recount, higher inventory levels, record speculative longs out there and now the prospects of a rate hike that could take the number higher. exxon, we talked about that already. hit a 52-week low. just last week. so the elephant in the room in this whole story is aramco. they're set to go public.
look what's happened? the saudis are sacrificing by cutting the production and oil prices are still going down. this is crushing the saudis' expectations. they've been saying that aramco could be north of $2 million. but there have been reports that it may only be worth $1.1.5 trill. imagine being the saudis. oil is still going down. now valuation, it may not be anywhere near what we thought it would be. it wouldn't surprise me if they threw in the towel. it was remarkable to see them come out and say, no, no. you're misinterpreting the opec numbers. look at i this way. they're clearly very worried. >> what was interesting, they're increasing production for last
month. they're still below what they agreed to cut in november. so they're still producing less. >> so what was also interesting is people reported, and people are saying, in the opec numbers have said that it looked like they had decreased. the saudis said that extra has gone to storage. now you have to believe the saudis that they actually did go to storage. my view is that we're setting a new range for oil. the saudis thought $50, $60 was too high. >> the question is, what is in the models? what level of oil is in the models? if right now we're at 50, that's a problem. they're probably higher. right? >> i'm not sure they are. i will say that by the end of 2016, we had a lot of guys making the forecasts and people in the mid 50s and low 60s for 2017. to me, again, it gets back to the position that soil way, way
overspecked. you need to hear something by saudi about second half cuts. rye now the trade is still short on the refining side. i think you have a place where they look to be in trouble and i think selectively, how many times did we get 10% pullbacks last year to be bought? >> if write an investor in bp, bp's dividend is more than 7%. >> what is the concern? >> well, bp, i mean, bp who has played around. they've broken the sank at this time of whether they can cut the dividend. it is other people watching. these are juicy. >> in a good way. not in a scary way. >> absolutely. what happens when we lose energy stocks? >> again, how much does oil go down? if you can tell me that.
oil goes back down to the 30 and we have a repeat of what we saw before. you have higher dollar, all of that. the saudis have shifted their strategy here which i don't think is the case yet. if that's the case, then yeah. again, you're going to end up in this 2015 scenario. >> it is a little disconcerting. it is hard to imagine, there was this one tweak. but everything else is going to stay the same. don't worry. i was always skeptical that it would hold together. it held together way better than i thought it would. way better. but i'm a little -- >> saudi arabia has a 13% budget deficit. they have a huge social problem. they've confolded this vision. they're not going to be whimsical about it. >> they didn't just play around and play this game only to flip back upon it when the price gets good. i don't think that's happening. >> as oil drags, one investor is betting $4 million of shares of
delta will take off. >> so we saw about five times volume in delta today and what we were seeing was a big buy of the june 50.55 call spread. they were paying about a dollar for that. it could be above it by least a dollar. and it looks line they're targeting the previous highs of this year and last year. right about $51. given that the stock has fallen about 10% very recently, it is easy to see how it could make a move of that size between now and june expiration about 90 days away when these expire. >> i think the concern for some airline investors, and we have some on the desk. unit revenues wouldn't be as good and that followed dlaelt's announcement. the american airlines announcement. >> i got in a while ago but it doesn't matter. if i'm long last night, i'll in airlines. so i don't know if there's a
little bit today. it is hope play the one time item. i am a little bit nervous. i'm going on ride it through. >> the other side of that coin is price line continues to differentiate itself from trip adviser and or bits. it is basically trading at all time high. even at current levels, it is long. >> all right. thank you. >> nice hair cut. >> for more options action, check it out on friday's at 5:30. will the back lash put a target on his back? we'll hear from the cheryl of a $20 billion pension fund who yanked money last year. plus the staples showdown. proctor and game when versus a l
altria. karen and guy will hit the hardwood. hey gary, what'd you got here? this bad boy is a mobile trading desk so that i can take my trading platform wherever i go. you know that thinkorswim seamlessly syncs across all your devices, right? oh, so my custom studies will go with me? anywhere you want to go! the market's hot! sync your platform on any device with thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade
time for topping the tape. tesla sharing nearly 5% on the hopes that the maker has another vehicle. the model y, manninged here, is rumored to be unveiled in 2018th. said to be a crossover using much of the technology including the platform of the three which is important in terms of actually producing the car. the stock is up more than 20%. this tesla has more room to run. >> in the long run yes. i wouldn't buy it on this report. it is way too far off. there are some other reports that it is not even in the works at all and it might be several years down the road. what i would say, exactly what andrew talked about last night when he covered the short. it gives some kind of a value to the driving unit. if they do a secondary, that's when you buy it. >> just because intel went in
and bought an autonomous driving play. if this stock rallied today that we've released another model to throw into the mix, this is an auto company. what is it? i don't understand how people are rallying on five different things on five different days. on the other day, they say that's not what it is. to me it is a company that is phenomenal in terms of its technology and innovation but this is not the answer. >> in terms of the five different reasons. when you rally the stock because of the notion pits autonomous technology, driving technology has some sort of valuation set. it is rallying because it is a stock company. when you rally because of y, it is a company still. >> i think you're rallying around strategic value. maybe yesterday we started to be able to see the monday at thisization of the strategic value. i get that.
i said i was surprised. maybe it is a reaction. i thought markets were more efficient handle the that. >> exactly what he said. i don't know if it is a delayed reaction. this announcement had a lot to do with it. i'm sort of in b kmpbl's camp. they threw out the potential. until you see that in terms of a stock or debt, i think you have to wait for that announcement. >> all right. let's turn from a big winner to a big loser. remember this forbes cover from 2015 when big ackman was doubled baby buffett? fast forward to today as he lost $4 billion on valeant. our next guest saw the writing on the wall a year ago. mark levine pulled $1 billion from hedge funds. namely pershing square. what did you see? welcome once again. >> hello. thanks for having me.
in terms ackman specifically. was there anything in his behavior, he appeared on tv a lot. anything in the way he had had his portfolio that raised flags for you? >> no. not at all. we owned 81 hedge funds which is an impossible portfolio to understand. we went from 81 hedge founlds 17. we took billion out of this category called hedge funds. the activists made up a fairly large chunk of that. i appreciate what they do. i agree and insist on the portfolio structure and concentrations. we diversify ourselves in our portfolio. so we've got no issues whatsoever. the issue is entirely performance. so our beneficiaries the don't
benefit if someone is on television or if a manager has lots, they benefit if they make money. real alpha. not over some artificial hedge fund bench mark but over thor indices of the markets that they're actually managing. >> for somebody so high profile as bill ackman is and has been, was there an additional concern? you told our segment producer. being that there is more of publicity rather than due diligence. was there that concern as well? >> right. so you look at some of the hedge, the managers that we've retained. we have recall 17 managers that we'll be moving into our real portfolio. and they, you know, they tend to really focus on the merits of investoring. these are guys who have some activism. who concentrate but produce great numbers. and that is really all we care
about. it is frankly if anything a moderate negative. this publicity side, it doesn't do anything for our beneficiaries. >> it is karen. will he me ask you. the activism can be auous cycle. it is easier to get things done if you want to put people on the board. had do you think story about activism has changed as some people will try to maybe think, oh, should i step back from being so public? 15 years ago, it was half a trillion. now it's $3 trillion. now this whole mod sell more of a public utility. we greatly appreciate it. we have a large, we have $10 billion invested in equities and there's no work the work the activists do including pernging
square benefit not tonight companies in those portfolios but the market at large. we appreciate that. the managers we invest in have to produce material chunks of alpha. hundreds, in some cases, 1,000 basis points for their to be a line of interest. it is not enough for our pension to make one basis point or 100 basis points of alpha and then pay 2 and 20. there's a pie that gets created with gross alpha. that i think the beneficiaries of our pension fund deserve at least half that pie. >> with ackman cut his fees, would you consider getting back in? you liked him at one time. >> the activists were there there before i zwroind board. it is not the just about fee cuts. it helps the line of interest equation very much if the fees are more moderated bust it is really about performance.
>> all right. thanks so much for joining us. appreciate it. mark levine joining us from chicago. >> i think mark has done a great job with his portfolio. alpha has been beta for the last five years but you know what i mean. they've been long and strong and it has been easy. i think guys are outthinking themselves. to say that the hedge fund industry has too many assets. it's crazy. i think some managers have too many assets. i think some are too big. volatility, you can't tell me that they've squelched volatility. >> karen, what's your take? >> one i know i think that he can't be wildly optimistic and still own it. i think. he said, well, could double, could triple. he talked about, it is taking
too much time. he could step off the board and still own it and not take so much time. that's a possibility. he might say, if did he that, every one would think he sold his stock soon after. that might happen. what i think is really going on is, he wants to rebuild his business and he needs to be out of val dlaeneant and put it beh him. >> you got long on herbal life. does he need to get out? is that part of your thesis? he needs to clear the decks? >> yes. part of my thesis for herbal life, had he is clearly going to try to squeeze bill ackman out. you have an fda that will be a little more lienent which may benefit herbal life. >> i think he in carl icahn.
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snxtd lgs bastion welcome back to "fast" will money. the battle of the bigger play. then we asked you for food you thought should square off with goldman to take the financial crown. american express took spot. now to tonight's competition. karnl's pick. proctor and gamble versus guy's pick, altria. since you won last night, we'll give you the first go at it. >> a worthy opponent in the form of karen fineman and proctor and
gamble. nelson pelts coming on. did that move mess up its chemistry? i say yes. listen. altria, not that interesting. slow and steady wins the race. but i have to tell you something. valuation, cheaper than its arrives. buying back stock in a major way. and there is a chance that because of the british american tobacco, they come in and reacquire. there's a shot of that happening. proctor and gamble, a great company of in terms of balance sheet, what they're doing in terms of streamlining their business. i think they win on a lot of levels. >> it's a tight race but basically my theory is the other guy is worse. valuation is something that i go to. we have similar valuations.
nice dividend yield. 3 1/4, 295 for p & g. 4% that free cash flow. here's the thing to me makes it not even close. how many cigarette sticks do they sell in a year? now we're at 105. the trend is only heading down. for me that secular move trumps anything else here. particularly valuations being about the same. >> just so we're clear, i am not advocating smoking here. back to you. >> so they have spoken. >> altria is not a cigarette company. they have a major beer holding, major other investments that are the reason they're so cash depleted.
it is just smoke. smokeless is another couple of percent. so it is still the bulk of their business. >> i think of their investments, i think it is less. >> are you and guy in cahoots or something? >> he beat me last night. let's be clear. who are you voting for? >> bk. >> for me, altria. that was a very good battle between you. altria will advance to the next round. guy adami. back to back days wins but it is surprising that karen lost. that's my takeaway here.
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final trade. a question for karen. your fathers worked at -- your father worked at ucla. >> is that where you learned the moofds? >> yes. with john wooden. >> i didn't realize there was a camera on when you were doing that. >> all right. >> time for the final trade. >> the guy is unstoppable. stay with that altria trade. >> all right. i hope that works out. i think i'm going back and buying a little more united airlines. >> i'm looking overseas. look at japan. low oil helps them.
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