tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 27, 2017 5:00am-6:01am EDT
xwl gl. good morning, the bank of japan raising economic forecasts. up next a decision from the ecb. new this morning, president trump says he won't terminate the nafta treaty now, but what should we expect from a renegotiating deal? details coming up. and responding to a pr disaster. why united airlines is willing to give passengers up to $10,000. details coming up on that. it's thursday, april 27, 2017. "worldwide exchange" begins right now. ♪ good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange."
i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody in for sara eisen today. it is throwback thursday. in honor of national bring your kid to workday, we're channeling our inner child in us and throwing back to some good songs from childhood. i assume, wilfred, this is your pick. >> this was my top pick. are you a lion king fan? >> absolutely. >> you were a little critical of my choice of song it seems. >> i reference those songs from my teenage years. it's great. >> either way, we're both still children at heart. >> absolutely. for now, the adult also look at t markets. investors are greeting trump's tax plan with a certain level of skeptici skepticism. yesterday day after spending most of the day in positive territory, the markets slumped at the close. all fell in negative territory for the day. futures mixed. dow jones up six points.
nasdaq up higher fractionally. the s&p 500 is flat if we look at ten-year treasury note. 2.30%. a couple pieces of economic data today, including pending home sales and durable goods. >> on the bond market, big move up on reflation in yields on monday when we had that risk-on move off the back of the french election results, otherwise stable since. as for yesterday's equity market moves, yes, flat, slightly down, but that was after two days of gains. diving into it yesterday, there was a massive divergence in sector performance. overall markets flat. real estate was down nearly 1%, the worst performing sector. the best performing sector, materials, up over 1%. materials have been good over the past week. let's look overseas. the bank of japan keeping rates
unchanged. the boj wrapping up a two day policy meeting raising its view of the economy. the central bank increasing the gdp growth forecast for the current fiscal year but lowered the core cpi forecast slightly. 1.6% gdp, 1.4% cpi. let's look at what the yen is doing. the dollar strengthening by about a quarter of a percent. the dollar has been weak against the yen in aren't serecent days weeks. we also got data out of south korea. strong exports and capital investment. asian equities there for you. a bit of red on the nikkei, half a percent of gains for hong kong. now we look to the ecb policy meeting and mario draghi's speech. the economic recovery in europe has been notable. a pick up in growth, inflation, unemployment has also improved.
let's look at european equities ahead of the policy meeting. we'll get that chart in just a second. >> essentially a great week for european equities. dax just down 0.3%. it has been a notable rally in europe after the first round of the presidential election in france. three days of gains for europe. on thursday we are lower, but we'll see what mario draghi, super mario, has to say about europe's economic recovery. i think it's too early to say they'll taper or show signs they're willing to squal backcan ge quantitative easing. >> last month he did strike a more hawkish tone than people expected, and investors interpreted it as the end of loose policy at some point early next year. we saw a move up towards the 1.09 handle, so much so that ecb members came out the middle of last month to offset that.
it would be a surprise if he struck again a hawkish tone given that just a couple weeks ago we had ecb members stepping away from that. the only swing factor that's happened in between an seen more confident is the first round of the french election. given it's only the first round, i think it would belikely for mario draghi to talk more b. that before the end of the second round. the euro up significantly this week off the back of the french election. oil prices for you, which yesterday were basically flat. they are lower today by a percent. 49.01 on wti. looking at the dollar, euro has been stronger. we were up 109.5. bang on 109 this morning.
so the euro flat ahead of the ecb meeting. a lot of euro strength off the back of the political landscape as opposed to expectations from the ecb. a bit of dollar strength following the yen, but dollar weakness against the pound. the other one we should mention is that the peso and the canadian dollar have strengthened against the u.s. dollar on talk that nafta, of course, is not going to be outright pulled out of by the u.s. immediately. more broadly, of course, the dollar very soft this week at or near lows not seen since november. gold prices down 2% for the week as a whole. the top washington news, the white house says president trump has agreed not to terminate the nafta treaty at this time and will attempt renegotiation. trump called the leaders of canada and mexico to reassure him of his perspective.
there were news reports earlier yesterday that the trump administration intended to bring the process of withdrawing from the trade agreement. the peso since the election, let's look at the chart. it's up about 4%, but it just -- it has been recovering as of late on this thinking that nafta won't actually -- or we won't see a tariff or export tax put in place. but look at the canadian dollar. >> that shows the dollar is up 4% since the election, then softening today. so the peso gaining today. >> the peso has come back a lot against the u.s. dollar. it hit a low on december 21st of 2016. canadian dollar for you as well. overnight the takeaway is both have rebounded. the canadian dollar less than the peso. both charts showing dollar weakness against these currencies, as it was announced yesterday there won't ab
outright pullout of the nafta agreement by the u.s. wilbur ross is launching an investigation into imported aluminum. the investigation will seek to figure out whether countries like china are using unfair subsidies and practices while producing aluminum. the u.s. production of aluminum has decreased significantly in years sparking concerns that the u.s. may not be able to handle demands as the result of a war. we'll have more details on the probe when commerce secretary ross joins "squawk box" at 7:00 a.m. eastern time. i'm sure our wonderful producers put that word in more than it needed it to be to hear me pronounce it. >> you got it right. >> like seven times in the space of 30 seconds. the white house rolling out details of the president trump's tax plan. treasury secretary steven mnuchin calling the proposal the biggest tax cut in u.s. history. the plan seeks to cut the
corporate tax rate to 15% and reduce the repatriation tax on off-shore earnings. it would double the standard deduction for individuals and reduce the tax brackets to three from seven. here's what secretary mnuchin has to say about the timing of getting the proposals passed. >> we've had productive meetings with the house and senate working weekly to get this done. we will continue to do that. we are determined to move this as fast as we can and get this done this year. >> still a lot of unanswered questions, will congress pass this? that's the big question, especially after the failure of the healthcare bill. but also how they'll pay for it. the deficit. that's still a big concern for economists. >> and i would frame it more negatively and how on earth can they get this plan passed? there's such optimistic projections included in that. paul donovan framing it nicely, the market wanted to see the
leader of his executive and his lieutenants outline a clear plan that could get passed. this was a campaign pledge with a couple of bullet points in it with headlines that no one believes can get done. maybe this is, again, another art of the deal opening ploy, let's say 15%, we'll settle at 20%. but unsurprising to see softness in the markets yesterday afternoon on the back of this announcement. if investors believed this was going to be delivered, 15% corporate tax rate, we would see the market rally. we didn't see that because people see how hard it will be to pass this. >> that intraday reversal in equity markets notable. united airlines says it will offer up to $10,000 for passengers who give up their seat on overbooked flights. this after the public relations disaster that erupted earlier this month after dr. david dao was dragged off a united flight. dao was only offered $800 to
give up his seat. the other notable change, passenger s on board and in ther se seat, if they are, they cannot be removed from the flight unless there's a safety or security issue. phil lebeau will have more on this later in the show. the stock up 3% over the course of the last month i believe that is. either way, it's not moving much. >> last two weeks. another big mover is buffalo wild wings slipping in the premarket trade and landon dowdy has all the details. what's going on with this stock? >> shares of buffalo wild wings tumbling about 2% in early trading after the firm posted disappointing earnings yesterday. earning 1.44 a share, 24 cents below expectations. blaming soaring wing prices, but that could give an activist investor an outer hand as they
try to oust sally smith, the ceo. mercato has been pushing buffalo wild wings to franchise more restaurants. buffalo wild wings will hold their share holders pleating on june 2nd. shares down nearly 10% over the past two years. back over to you. >> thank you very much. a couple more stocks to keep on the radar. one is deutsche bank reporting lower than expected revenue partly thanks to a negative impact of credit spread. still the bank's profit more than doubling in the first quarter. this is the first earnings from deutsche bank since they completed an 8.5 euro capital increase earlier this month. here is the cfe earlier today. >> the most important point for us in the first quarter is to see in the different business lines we see the turn. exactly that has happened. >> shares of the german bank are down 3% right now.
>> the interesting thing in this is the investment banking performance. global markets up 9% year-on-year compared to about 20% growth in the same -- they break it down differently, but the same performance for the u.s. investment bank. deutsche bank really losing ground. the question is is this a short-term effect or is it structural? the question for them is they pretty much zeroed all of the investment bank bonuses over the course of the last year. do they start losing headcount as well? i think most people that i speak to off the report, of course, in terms of senior people there, they're willing to give it another year, they won't jump ship immediately, but they need to start turning this around or this is a serious market share loss. 3% loss in the share price. >> only time will tell. let's continue the discussion around financials. this time a uk bank, lloyds,
says its net profit increase in the first quarter of the year as the british economy continues to hold up post the brexit vote. the bank is also raising projected net interest margin which is a closely watched target. shares up 4%. >> the uk domestic retail bank that this is, it's not really an investment bank is performing better than people expected. another post-brexit surprise. rbs up off the back of it. also barclays reports tomorrow. barclays is more of an investment bank than retail bank. they will focus on barclays tomorrow and hear from jeff staley since he was caught up in the whistle-blower issue. we will listen in on the call tomorrow which is about the time of "worldwide exchange." pay pal reporting upbeat quarterly results, an increase in payment processing volumes. a few more stocks to watch.
shares of weight watchers getting a bump after naming a new president and ceo. mindy grossman taking over in july. she's currently ceo of hsn. samsung electronics posting a solid first quarter profit getting a boost by the memory chip business. the company also flagging stronger earnings for the current quarter and a cancellation of treasury shares. shares up 2.4%. over the last three months up about 10%. samsung shrugged off that issue with the galaxy phone in and around the last 6 to 12 months. citrix reporting mixed results. shares of the company taking a hit after revenue came in below analyst expectations. shares are down about 6%. coming up on the show, shares of takata suspended today. is this the end of the road for the air bagmaker? details when we return. what's happening right now?
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across europe, a bit of uncertainty ahead of the ecb meeting today. not expecting action from mario draghi. last month his comments were interpreted as a little bit hawkish, so much so that the reaction we saw in markets led to central bank members coming out to soften expectations. as we come into this meeting, shouldn't expect too much on the hawkish side of things. either way a bit of softness today in europe. futures, let's look at them off the back of a slightly negative day yesterday. again off the back of strong gains for the week. the dow called higher by 16 points. >> a couple stocks to keep an eye on. f5 networks reporting modest gains but missing estimates. shares are down sharply under
the network company's new ceo. tractor supply's first quarter results were in line with forecasts. the retailer blames the weather for some short comings, but says it is encouraged how customers responded recently and expects strong business this spring. the stock up 1.5%. las vegas sands beating estimates, but revenue came in shy. the las vegas operations were strong, and the is a secasino mn macau is improving. they are also look to open a resort and casino in japan. >> shares of takata suspended today after a report says the struggling auto partsmaker is considering whether to file for bankruptcy. it would call for a u.s. company to sponsor the turnaround for $2 billion. shares down 19% this morning and suspended. german labor officials say
tesla is offering pay raises and job guarantees to de-fuse tensions at a key supplier. they are key to ramp up production and mass market car production. astrazeneca hq1 drops on blockbuster revenue. >> wpp says revenue growth slowed in the last quarter as ae clients spent less in the u.s. and emerging markets. sir martin sorrell on "squawk box" europe earlier this morning talking about business in china. >> down in china q1, mainland and elsewhere around 6%. the we've seen the multinationals come under heavier pressure in china.
the growth in the economy is driven by real estate and construction. there has been, i think, some loosening from an economic policy point of view in china. but i don't think we'll see any significant change until after the peoples party congress in november. >> shares of wpp down 2%. netgear beating the street on the top and bottom lines. shares of the networking company down 5%. in the pharma says, bayer reporting sales ahead of forecast and raising full-year guidance. shares up about 3.5%. >> nokia beating analysts forecast expecting sales of the network unit to decline this year in line with the market. up 6%. amgen's quarterly profit topping expectations offsetting a sharp drop in sales of a blockbuster drop. the company reporting a double
digit sales deline fcline for a rheumatoid arthritis drug. and airbus hurt by weak pricing and higher costs. airbus facing an issue with a key engine supplier. still ahead, remember this bbc interview that went completely viral? the internet's favorite interrupting kids are back that story when we return. thanks for loading, sweetie.
cascade. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for our top trending stories. the bbc interview kids are back. the two children who famously crashed their father's bbc interview are getting their own cartoon series. the adventures of mina and jack showcasing the duo following their father around the world helping him solve crime and get out of other sticky situations. extraordinary tangent they're trauing from one viral viddrawi viral video. but crime fighting father? >> sometimes being naughty pays off. >> it's a big step. there we go. great story. that video did go universally viralment. >> amazon wants to help you up your selfie game.
the company unveiling its first echo device with a built-in camera the echo look will run you about $200 and uses a depth sensing camera and l.e.d. light. it links up with an app called style check that connects users with fashion experts offering style recommendations. all of this to help people with that exciting selfie. >> you know what i'll do in the break? >> what? >> ordering one of them. >> there we go. still to come, the top stories and a round up of the global market picture. united airlines will offer $10,000 if you give up a seat on an overbooked flight, this in response to that pr disaster when a passenger was dragged off the plane. phil le bow hebeau has the deta that coming up. so for once i've got plenty of time. what's going on? so those financial regulations being talked about?
they could affect your accounts, so let's get together and talk, and make sure everything's clear. thanks. yeah. that would be great. we've grown to over $900 billion in assets under care... by being proactive, not reactive. it's how edward jones makes sense of investing. theseare heading back home.y oil thanks to dawn, rescue workers only trust dawn, because it's tough on grease yet gentle. i am home, i am home, i am home
good morning. stocks pointing to a higher open on wall street as investors await another round up of earnings. we're setting you up for the trading day ahead. taxes, healthcare, trade, so much news coming out of the white house in the past 24 hours. what it means to you and your portfolio. and united airlines making beg changes to its passenger policy. details of that coming up. it's thursday, april 27, 2017. you're watching "worldwide exchange."
good morning. welcome to "worldwide exchange," i'm wilfred frost. >> i'm seema mody in for sara eisen. it's throwback thursday and national bring your kid to work today, that's why we are playing these songs from when we were kids. >> let's get to the global market picture. this morning futures expecting a bounce back, up after a small decline yesterday. we did see markets yesterday lose steam in the afternoon, perhaps attributed to that tax plan from steve mnuchin. it was so optimistic that invest felt it was not deliverable. one factor maybe why we saw the markets slip yesterday afternoon. today pointing higher, albeit only slightly.
worth noting we have had tw two 200-point gains for the dow earlier this week. so those slight declines nothing to be too concerned about. let's look at the peck chou pic europe. gains earlier in the week for europe were bigger than the u.s. uncertainty ahead of the ecb meeting. today, mario draghi not expecting to do much. last month he was more hawkish than perhaps he intended to be. he's not expected to make the same mistake today. germany down about a quarter percent this morning. a look at asian trade, the bank of japan keeping policy unchanged, slightly increasing the gdp forecast. japan down 0.2% this morning. >> as we look at broader markets, let's focus in on oil
prices. yesterday we did get some data that showed a drop in crude oil stocks. but gasoline inventories surging as refiners produced more field than the market could consume. wti crude down below $50 a barrel. the international gauge, ice, brent crude at $51.27. down 1%. so commodity markets under pressure now. switching to currencies. interesting move in yesterday's trade. the dollar hitting a new high against the yen at 111.73. the highest level since march 31st as investors digested trump's tax plan. the euro now at 1.0 again8 agaie dollar. 1 111 against the yen. pound higher. data today in focus, pending home sales, durable goods, and that u.s. trade balance number,
which the white house keeps a close eye on. >> it's been a busy 24 hours at the white house as president trump approaches his 100th day there office. the president calling the leaders of mexico and canada last night to tell them that the u.s. will not pull out of nafta. this following reports from earlier yesterday that mr. trump was considering a draft executive order to withdraw from the 23-year-old trade pact. the trump administration also unveiling what it's calling the biggest tax cut in history. the one-page plan delivered by steven mnuchin and gary cohen detailing the plan in a news conference yesterday. among the highlights, cutting the corporate tax rate to 15%, a special one-time tax to lure companies to reinvest money kept overseas back here at home, and the elimination of tax breaks for special interests.
let's discuss this with ben. good morning. >> good morning. >> let's talk about the tax plan. markets did soften in the course of the afternoon after we had that, whether that was the cause or not, we're not sure. but essentially 15% corporate tax rate. investors feel this isn't achievable? >> part of the reason you didn't see a positive reaction is most details were known. the 15% corporate tax rate was in his campaign plan. it was leaked to myself and others leading up to this event. there was not a lot of new information and also a gem sense of getting from 35% to 15% is going to be difficult because they don't have pay it forwards in it. the white house is not in favor of the plan of instituting a border adjustment tax that would add about a trillion in revenue over ten years. so how do you get that low and satisfy deficit hawks in congress? it's a difficult path. "a," new most of this already. "b," there's no clear path to get from this bare bones
proposal to passage in the house and senate. there's a lot of time to go before they can get this tax cut put in. >> the assumption was that the border adjustment tax would offset the reduction in the corporate tax rate. since we don't have that, when will we get details for this potential ballooning of the u.s. deficit? >> i counted the number of times in the press conference they were asked for details and didn't give them, it was about 13 times. the answer is we don't know when we'll get the details. the white house doesn't know. this would like to do this mainly as a supply side tax cut, not worry about the deficit debt implications and say growth is going to be faster. you'll have more economic growth to offset some revenue reductions. that doesn't sell with conservatives in the house who say we cannot add more to a debt that's already $19 trillion. that's a tif sough circle to sq.
>> so a narrow path to victory? >> they can do some type of tax cuts. republicans are in charge of the white house and capitol hill. they like to cut taxes. there's agreement the corporate tax rate is too high. they won't get to 15%. maybe between 20% and 25%. they won't be able to do the personal income side of things. so some of the biggest tax cut information in history won't happen, but we'll get something. >> this year? >> 2017/2018, you will get the lowering. >> were you surprised about the announcement on nafta, that the u.s. was not going to pull out of it? >> this was a fast-moving story yesterday. politico first reported that they were considering this order to pull out of nafta. you have a divide within the white house now. there are nationalists who are very much in favor of some trade crackdowns that trump campaign on the. steve bannon, peter thnavarro w
want to pull out of nafta. they were pushing for this other heads pulled back and said it would be pretty destabilizing do this this way. let's get them to the table. renegotiate pieces of this. what those pieces are we don't know yet. cooler head press veiled and said we can't do this now. >> mark out of 10 for the first 100 days? >> maybe a 5 or 6 with room to improvement. some good things on china, good talks with china business climate is good. has not delivered on healthcare. long path on tax cuts. incomplete. >> ben, great stuff. ben white of politico. breaking overnight, united airlines announcing big policy changes following that now infamous incident where a passenger was dragged off one of its flights earlier this month. phil lebeau joins us with details. >> these are the change, is that united said it would be putting into effect. once this incident happened, about 2 1/2, 3 weeks ago
immediately the airline said we'll come up with a new passenger policy by april 30th. overnight they released those poli policies. a couple of things. the company will be offering up to $10,000 for volunteers who want to give up seats on flights that are overbooked. if you're seated on a flight, so people actually in their seat already, they cannot be bumped unless there's a security or safety issue. and united also says it plans to reduce the amount of overbooking. targeting maybe those flight the at the end of the day, saying let's not try to do as much overbooking with those flights. they're creating customer solution teams so customers when they're at these particular areas f they' areas, if they're on a flight and asked to leave, being bumped they can work with some of these teams. all of this is part of united trying as much as possible to get past this controversy and this crisis. these policies, most of them l
take effect over the next day or two. a few others will take more time. at the heart of this is the idea that perhaps united can move past this controversy. though i have to be honest with you, i see no indication there talking with travelers, being on flights myself, on united flights were people are ready to move beyond that. this is one of those things that will linger for a while. >> gauge the earnings impact, 8 $800 per passenger is $10,000 is massive. >> before, 1350 was the limit allowed when you are involuntarily knocking somebody off a flight. 10,000 is the limit. in reality f you're on a flight and they say who wants 1,000, who wants 1500, at some point around there my gut says you're probably going to see some takers. i'm not sure you will see a whole lot of people who will say
let's wait until they get to 5,000 or $6,000. you get above 1500, $2,000, you will have some takers. >> it's like one of those game shows now. >> yeah. who will bite first and take the money. as you say, the pr issue still dragging them down. phil lebeau, thank you very much. now to today's agenda the european central bank is holding its monthly policy meeting today. the decision is due at 7:45 a.m. eastern followed by a news conference by mario draghi at 8:30 a.m. we also get a trio of u.s. economic reports today. weekly jobless claims, durables good and pending home sales. on the earnings front, bristol myers, comcast, ford, union park and u.p.s. reporting. before the opening bell. after the close, alphabet, amazon, intel, microsoft and starbucks. a programming note, comcast chairman and ceo brian roberts will be on "squawk box" in a first on cnbc interview at 7:30
a.m. eastern. sticking with earnings, a lot to get to and a lot of movers. paypal shares getting a premarket pop following an earnings beat yesterday. landon dowdy has the details. >> shares of paypal up more than 5% this morning after earnings beat the street's expectations. the firm had better than expected sales, boosted guidance and announced plans for a $5 billion buyback. the earnings growth momentum is the big story here, pointing to paypal's best account growth in three years. paypal is the parent company of brain tree & venmo. daniel schulman on the earnings call. >> beginning in q2 we plan to enhance the p 2 p payment process that made vemmo go
viral. today we are anticipating the ability to pay with venmo will be widely deployed across millions of paypal merchant bases by the end of this year. >> paypal separated from ebay in july of 2015. shares are up by almost 19%. back over to you. >> thank you very much for that. still to come on "worldwide exchange," the opinion pages. all about the trump tax plan, that coming up in the must-read section. and a huge day on cnbc. at 2:00 p.m., don't miss the cnbc stock draft, eight teams, 50 stocks, one winner. that's later on cnbc. i love you, couch.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." my must read is in the financial times, entitled u.s. tax reform scrap yard. mr. trump may be attempting to stun critics into silence. the message is clear from the administration. fiscal responsibility is taking a back seat and it thinks plenty will still want to come along for the ride. lots of analysis over the course of the last sort of 12, 24 hours on this announcement. one big takeaway, very much in this write up is skepticism that the level of announcement can be
delivered. as we already discussed it's one reason markets were soft yesterday afternoon. >> that intraday reversal in markets was notable. you also wonder if investors were buying on the rumor, selling on the news. they were expecting a tax cut. we got the broad level blueprint. that reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. concerns about the deficit, how it will be paid, no signs of the border adjustment tax. there is history people are look at in terms of the 1986 reagan reform where the top rate was cut from 50% to 28%. following that a 1980s growth boom. growth averaged about 4.8% in the six years after. some people say this is good for the economy. let's not worry about the deficit until later. concerns there. we are approaching the top of the hour, so that means the team is getting ready for "squawk box." a andrew ross sorkin is in wag with a lo
washington with a look. we have a big show this morning. it's an embarrassment of riches, dare i say. we will talk about the tax proposal, tax plan that's been put forth with a whole host of people across the board. here's what we have on tap this morning. we are going to be speaking with wilbur ross in the 7:00 hour. nick mulvaney, lick talk about numb we'll talk about numbers with him. we have rob portman, the center from ohio. david perdue, the list goes on. steny hoyer. i can go on. we also have the co and chairman of the network that owns us, brian roberts. he will be with us at 7:30. we also have the former co of cisco, john chambers in washington. when i tell you it's an embarrassment of riches, we will speak with a group of people across the board in washington to try to break down what's going on over the past 100 days and what it all means.
>> outstanding stuff. look forward to it. it looks like you have payments worth of guests. >> i didn't want to miss somebody. david schweikert i missed. i'm not even giving a full rundown. >> that's why we're looking forward to it. it's also as if the guest hosts of "squawk box" these days is the commerce secretary. "squawk box" in about 11 minutes time. up next, earnings, tax reform, trade, a lot in play with your money. we'll discuss all of it with steven wieting as he joins us next. as we head to break, we have more hits from our childhood. it's national take your kid to work today. welcome sophia, jeff, seth and joe. welcome back. >> you're watching cnbc, we'll be right back.
futuring pointing slightly higher over the last hour or so. essentially we're flat. it's been a strong week following the french election results. steven whiting is with us from citi private bank. getting to the u.s. in a moment. but i wanted to ask quickly about the french election. is there an element of complacency from markets coming out of the vote? >> everyone waho wanted to vote for le pen probably did. you saw the issue from 2002, where there was strategic voting. i think what was a global risk issue became a french governance issue. so the one-day reaction was big, that was probably appropriate and that was taking this issue off the plate. >> the markets seem to be concerned that the ecb policy meeting, mario draghi will use a more hawkish tone given that political risks at this point are subsiding. >> that's marginal.
there's a june meeting, a september meeting, this is still april. this is not the big event where we think about tightening policy in europe overall. this will be a slow approach in terms of monetary policy changes in the case of europe. >> let's talk about state side and the tax announcement. what did you make of that? do you think it's realistic. >> the market reaction is muted. a bit of a selloff. we had several announcements like this. the tax plan is the information you saw during the campaign. there's been several cases where we reinvigorated expectations. what's important now is the impact in congress and how far this goes, how fast timeline details, some notion as to wlha the compromise will be between house republicans and this plan, that's real information for markets. it's real important to step back in markets. we're reporting an earnings quarter in the united states that's likely to show more than 10% eps growth in the calendar
first quarter before any tax cuts or anything like that. so obviously a good deal of the rally we've had in financial markets is justifiable for where earnings are going. >> can earnings keep the stock market rally alive despite uncertificate aarouu uncertainty around tax reform. >> we will not be easily seeing 10% eps growth forever. i would point out the middle of the year periods, periods where you get selloffs. it's very common. i would use that to take advantage of those selloffs, and ultimately i think we are more likely than not to get fiscal stimulus. >> what did you make about the back and forth in terms of what the administration plans to do with nafta yesterday and the conclusion, the announcement that they are not going to pull out of it in an outright fashion. >> we have to see what is negotiation? this is a new administration. what is a negotiating tactic what is the reality.
you have significant potential impact in mexico and canada if there was no nafta. important for us as well in the united states. but when you see these announcements, we don't know how far to go with them. it's important that there was some sort of correction put out on that. >> it's led to a rally overnight in the peso and the canadian dollar. stepping back from that more broadly, pretty pronounced weakness in the dollar. the index at or near lows not seen since november. >> this is critical for investors. the u.s. dollar rallied 33% on a broad trade weighted basis over six years. this is a rich dollar. the u.s. has to provide exceptional returns to keep pushing it up. we think that corporate tax cuts, for example, repatriation could push us up again. these are discrete effects. away from all that we're likely to be near a cyclical peak for a dollar. you lost more than half of international equity returns in
the last six years to dollar appreciation. so that could mean -- for us it meant looking to envest more in eamericans markets where you have deep valuation discounts in the united states, investors are skeptical. but you actually have below average valuations on an outright basis, not just relative. >> if the dollar continues to weaken will trade become not as big a priority for washington and the white house? >> i don't think it will be that extreme. we're not at some massive inflection point. this is not $20 oil, $120 oil. this could go on a long time here. unless there's a real plaqmacro economic turning point. that headwind, taking away that headwind is important. >> steven, we have to leave it there. steven whiting of citi private bank. 20 seconds left or so. key things to watch, developments out of washington. >> and big day for earnings. >> "squawk box" has all the coverage you need for both, particularly that washington focus. earnings continue.
good morning, the trump administration releasing its tax reform proposal. we're coming from washington with all the details. and united airlines announcing new passenger policies including payouts of up to $10,000. do i hear 8,000? do i hear 9,000? that to volunteers who give up a seat on an overbooked flight sgla. and a busy morning on the earnings front. it's thursday, april 27, 2017, "squawk box" begins right now.
good morning. welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. you can see the capitol there as the sun starts to rise this morning. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. we are in the nation's capital marking president trump's first 100 days in office. on the schedule today, kevin brady, steny hoyer, senator rob portman, senator david perdue, house free dumb caucus member, joe schweikert, commerce secretary, wilbur ross and mick mulvaney. let's look at futures at