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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  May 9, 2017 6:00pm-7:01pm EDT

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motivation for this firing. agree with karen. it sounds like there is partisanship here. i think markets will care about that. >> we will see tomorrow, guys. thanks for watching, i'm melissa lee. meantime, do not my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," welcome to cramerica. some people want to make friends, i want to make you money. i'm not just here to entertain you, i'm here to educate you and teach you. email me or tweet me. have we become too complacent? is that what the covolatility
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index is telling us? i think we have to ask this question on another rather sedate day. so where the heck did all the fear go? and more importantly, should this lack of caution be making us nervous? let's unpack the situation, next we know the vix measures the level of volatility, that traders are expecting in the near future. it's often viewed as an index of the overall level of fear in the marketplace. some people think it's out of date. since these days there are many other ways to bet against the market. more efficient ways, frankly. in other words the fear gauge may not be as relevant as it
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once was. but the vix may not be obsolete. while the s&p 500 is much more representative of the broader market. i always mention it at the top of the show, and given that it broke down below 10 today, it's a signal that there is a lot les fear now than at any time in a decade. we have to deal with this. are we right to not be afraid? so a certain degree yes, the market hasn't moved much in ages, and it's reasonable to think that it won't. and these intraday swings, it seems like they banned them. when the market's this gentlneg investors start asking if there's going to be a major decline. why haven't there been bigger moves? for starters, the economy is at
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last healthy, like it was in 2006. it's no longer on life support. which means we don't need to worry that the fed is going to send us into a recession if it keeps raising interest rates as we expect. that was a rational fear for a long time. central began banks have often crushed growth by raising rates. now that we have a uniform belief that the economy can indeed handle a couple of rate hikes, maybe they would even be good for the markets. second, whether you love frump -- trump or hate him, it is thu that he's the best pro business president. a bunch of important white house positions are filled with goldman-sachs alums. i'm a goldman-sachs alum.
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whatever. maybe you fear that this administration fears labor over capital. and favoring capital means these guys favor higher stock prices, sure, trump could saber rattle. but his bark is certainly worse than his bite, so far. thirdly, the rest of the world has finally calmed down. asia is strong, europe is improving, even south america has improved. fourth, an oil shock which had been a source of volatility many times, now seems out of the question given our own massive reserves of crude. bringing money in almost on autopilot has eliminated a lot of the massive flows in and ou a that used to cause volatility. finally we're getting through an
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earnings season where the shocks to the down side have been few and forward between. let's see, there's ibm, yelp, some oils. that's really it. that said, none of these successful indications show a lack of fear. for examp i tell my club members that it would not be unusual if we had a selloff. i mean, when you think about it, we have to have a selloff of magnitude at a certain point. i have never seen a period like that doesn't end with something coming out of left field to take us lower, just saying. one thing's for certain, that the fed's going to raise interest rates that bonds will become healthy competition. although if the yeelgz we main
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at 10%. we may be all honky dory about the fed at the moment, but there may come a time when its movers may promote some atmosphere. finally, it's not like the world suddenly became a certain place. it's uncertain. with an unproven president, a lot of people around the world who wish us ill, both physically and economically. after months and months of little movement, i don't want to say that we don't get any major declines again, that would be rank foolishness. i'm pretty sure whatever event does trigger a decline, will not be something you and i have foreseen. i recommend keeping some cash on the sideline. in the end, you have to expect the unexpected. you want to recognize how few people are worried.
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but consider this. the one thing the vix doesn't measure, for sure doesn't measure s how many hedge funds out there are actually betting against both this market and individual stocks every second and minute of the day. there were so many other times in my career, where the number of large funds with big positions were few and far between. now i see it's the exact opposite. when i see ceos of big companies on the air, they like the market. the vast majority i pay attention to, here's what they're thinking, they're either calling for a crash, or they believe we're on the verge of a giant downturn. i think if we had an actual poll of hedge funds, we would find overwhelming negativity about this market, because it's too high, the valuation is too expensive. it needs to come down.
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the hedge funds are probably off the chart office this run. maybe in the end that's why the market doesn't seem to want to come down big, too many of the big boys expect it too. the bottom line, that expressive hedge fund activity is the reason i can embrace to explain why the big decline has been so elusive. that meaay be the mentality of l the big boys that stabilize on the dip. that may look like the need to buy something, anything, before the move goes back up. roland in new york. rola roland? >> caller: i'm pretty much a value investor and these days it's pretty difficult to find some good values out there. one that i came across recently and took a small position in, was kroger, kr, what's your thought about that stock?
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>> kroger needs price inflation, i know costco is predicting that. i don't mind sitting with kroger, it's a good company, don't expect anything to exceed price inflation, that's what they need. l let's go to alex in oregon. >> caller: you featured tellurian, i jumped in, it's down about 40% from where it was. that's tll. how do you feel about that? >> look, i think he's a winner. now the stock has come down, but liquefied and natural gas, it's a real business, it's a very strong business, and i think suki is a smart man, i'm not going to go against him. how about kyle in new jersey. >> caller: jd.com, they had a
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great quarter. >> i have said over and over, and since 90, i think allibabal. that's a company i met face-to-face, and felt very good about their financials, went through back and forth, that's the one i endorse for china alibaba. john in north carolina. >> caller: go tar heels. i want to thank you for taking my call for the seventh time. i sincerely appreciate it. it looks like the rise of aob and rgr are a short squeeze because they all dropped in anticipation of rgr not meeting
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can'tati expectations. >> i think outdoor brands is a winner. i have been watching outdoor brands put up big numbers, i have been right some of the time and wrong some of the time. but i have not abandoned it. too many of the big guys expect the market to go down. but there are othersothers -- a oil prices dropped, are we in for a crude reality when it comes to crude? i think it is a chart derived district. the chart has the makings of a great short. and can allergan's recent rally signify that it's down tonight. stick with cramer.
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not too long ago, our stock market was totally hostage to the prying of oil. when crud went up, stock went up, as crude went down, stock wasn't down. the average it seems like crude may have finally figured it out. maybe they have gotten it figured out that maybe the fluctuations in the oil price may be based on supply and demand? what happens if it starts declining into the lower 30s. as long as oil stays here in
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the mid 40s, we're safe, in part because our domestic producers have done better at getting more crude out of the ground more less money. still we need to know where this is headed. we're going off the charts with carly garner. she's the co-founder of carly trading, and she's the author of "higher probability commodity trading" because she's got a terrif terrific track record when it comes to oil. after rallying up to the mid 50s last month, it came dawn to the mid 40s, as she indicated it could do. what does she think now that it's at the low end of the range? i want you to take a look at this daily chart of west texas intermediate crude. look at the williams percentage r oscillator down at the bottom. that's a tool created by
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commodity trader legend larry williams. according to the r oscillator, the market is indeed oversold. this is an indicator that it's down below 30. when crude gets down to these levels, it gets this oversold, garner says it's the kiss of death for a bear market. although oil generally retests it's lows or even makes slightly lower lows before rebounding, that's crucial. garner suspects this time to be no different. so there's a little bit of a breakdown, a little bit of a breakdown. in short, she's betting on another leg down before we bounce, but we will bounce. oil is supporting the low of $43 if either one of these hold,
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garner expects it to be right bag to $50. this is how it's been for months. it's been down in the 40s, then we bounce right back to the 50s, it's happened over and over and over. garner's picture shows similar support level s where she expecs things to turn around. last week's breakdown below $46 should pave the way in near term liquidation in oil futures. the one big difference with the weekly price, the relative strength index, and the r oscillator, still have a bit more to go. these are not as oversold as the daily was, both these tools indicate that these could have some negative momentum. but if the price of crude can bounce from the many support levels in the low 40s, garner could see it again rally back to
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50, where it would run into the ceiling of resistance. what else do we need to consider? some traders were trading in the high 30s. and it's subsequent rebound point to a reversal in crude, that the turn around is already upon us, but garner has a few reasons to be consistent kl that the bottom has already been seen. look rat this weekly chart of west texas crude. the cot report. regular viewers know that this tells us about the net long or short positions of three key groups, the large speculators, meaning money managers, small speculators, meaning home gamers and small companies. when the big boys amass a large net long position, it usually means there's pain ahead,
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because there's no one left to buy, they're already in. when they've got a huge net short position, there's nowhere to rebound. garner says that the large speculator cohort has been bullish no matter what. and even after this recent decli decline, they remain way too bullish. see the line is still way up here. when crude was in the mid 50ss, these institutional investors we were trading in the high 40. garner believes it's like ly around 340,000, 350,000. after the recent 10 point decline, you better believe these money managers are feeling uneasy. and that's why garner believes that crude could have a low
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point in the 40s. what she's saying is it's still going to do exactly what did before. look at the seasonal chart for garner points to the fact that oil trades -- the large speculators still have too much oil exposure to say that we can do some real buying. the price of oil is strongly dependent on the action of the currency markets. so a strong green back translates into cheaper oil. this is the dollar index, which tracks the u.s. dollar against a host of other major currencies, the dollar puts in a weight of 150. there's the bottom, bottom and
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up. she thinks that could swing the dollar index up to higher trading and that will also put pressure on the price of oil. carly garner suggests that oirl probably isn't finished going down, but bunonce it gets to $4 barrel, it should go back up. [vo] when it comes to investing,
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hey, it's tough to be a short seller in this environment. just look at the travel space. we seem to have the makings of an ideal short. with airplane reservations experiencing precipitous declines after president trump announced his ban on travellers from several muslim countries or call it a pseudomuslim band. you had to assume that anything related to it was going to plummet in the quarter. so why not bet against this $250 billion industry, especial. and our market's starved for good short selling ideas, here at last was one with real
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staying power and it would take you right from april to may, or at least it would look like that. it only got better after united and continental's drag-a-thon occurred. of course the courts halted both executive orders with al lack contributity, and those who bet against the travel space are on the ropes now with sharply better than expect eed numbers. take marriott, they reported numbers that were simply incredible. marriott revealed that it has a pipeline of 400,000 rooms that they're planning on building, th that stocks flew up to 6 bucks. and then traffic up 7%, lots of positive chatter about on time
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planes, which is why the board hired oscar munos as ceo to begin with. munos ran a railroad, now how to get it in on time. the stocks are up about 10% in the aftermath. mean this wiredly watched incident meant nothing for the -- some of this could have been predicted. i had the ceo of expedia on the show last week in san francisco. he indicated that business was robust in the last few months. marriott vacation, you know we love that one, the timeshare spin off marriott had similar comments. any one of these could have tipped you off that travel is in go good shape. and of course the cruise lines, they have been delivering fantastic quarters.
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you can argue that all this is just penalty up demand after they dropped briefly. i don't think that's the real story. i think people are spending more money on trips than they are on goods. that money may just be coming out of retail. travel is as experiential as it gets, meaning it's something you can put on your facebook page. no wonder that travel and ease your stocks have been defying the short sellers. that they're the act right place to be. let's go to bruce indiana, hey, bruce. >> caller: thank you for taking my call. i have a question. i have walmart at 57, 18 months ago. now it's around 77. should i stay or should i sell? >> it's really up just a little bit, when they cratered the earnings when they said they were going to go deeper into e
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come. i do not want you to sell it. . >> caller: i bought avp and now they've lost 60%. >> just keep it as a call option or maybe on a term. but that was a sub par quarter so far. the travel industry is robust, experiential and just plain flying high, sorry short sellers. i have a conversation with the ceo of allergen, the stock is up 20% this year. and then xpo lodge gist sticks is behind the sup player chains for costco and home depot. and all your calls rapid fire, tonight's edition of "the lightning round" so stick with cramer.
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some companies just don't get nearly enough respect. that's how i felt about all le n allergan, reported an excellent earnings report today, it had higher than expect it revenue, more importantly management raised their full year forecast for both the top and the bottom line. the company's got a good pipeline, coming in with $13 billion in retail sales. however, allergan stocks sold off hard today, shedding $3.44. because of concerns of operating margins and cash flows that some felt were below expectations.
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let's talk to the chairman and ceo of allergan, welcome back to "mad money." let's go over some of the things that people heard and said, because i don't think they tell the story, but i want people to understand why a stock went down. first $1.1 billion in cash flow, many people thought it would be 1.5 to 2. >> we did a deal for crisper technology. and we closed take deal. you'll start to see $1.5 billion to $2 billion next quarter. >> and the second one was lower margins, because you're struggling to build more drugs
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here. >> q-1 was our lowest sales quarter. when you have lower sales, you have lower margins, put on that a little bit of product mix, as we have some higher royalty for products growing faster like linzest and others. that margin should improvprove throughout the year as well. >> you have this pipeline, let's talk about what's the biggest up in the pipeline, you're in development progress for six-star programs and it could produce some blockbusters. >> is that's right. so we do have six programs in r and d that are either in face p three or going into phase three. there's a novel break through treatment for depression. huge market, and we really like the profile of this drug for
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depression, very different than current standard of care. we have a new standard of treatment for amd. we know that was an improvement from four weeks, to six weeks, this could be 12-week dosing. so big change. and we finished enrollment in that study. we have our new novel treatment for nash. very large market, high on that need, and we'll be moving forward there. and for uterine fibroids, already approved outside the united states and then the first in class drug for diabetic gastrofrere sis. no real new drugs in three years. >> to me it's an insanely large pirp line.
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but people want to know about the aesthetics, and this stuff could have huge close margins. >> the aesthetics was very strong in the quarter, it's been strong for years now, quarter after quarter as quarter. >> i felt there was an acceleration, i was upset that the stock went down. i think at aesthetics is just bet rock at 2018. >> after putting strong growth quarter after quarter year after year. strong return on botox. kybella, starting to perform. we now have cool scoping. >> i want you to talk about this. because i think this is gigantic. frankly some of your stuff, i think that people don't know it yet. >> they do because lots of people are using it. but our penetration rates are so small still. so we have that massive market,
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but so many potential customers patients out there. and we're seeing more young people into the medical aesthetics, people are putting it on snap chap, facebook, instagram. we're seeing males start to move into the market. in fact 30% of all cold scoping patients are men. which is 10% for botox. >> and how do people get to that? t do they go to a dermatologist? general practitioner? >> if anybody googled cool scoping in their city, they can find a whole list of providers. it's available everywhere in the united states. people will be able to download the brighter distinctions app to find a provider. >> one of the many reasons why i like the company and the stock,
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because there is a selfie generation. for instance, i would love it if you would buy align, but you guys have soup to nuts for how to look better. and that is something that as we have learned from the line, it gets younger and younger people hear about these things. but i'm wondering, how are you going to get the worth out? not just google. don't you do an active campaign for something like this. >> we do and we get a multiplier effect on each of our dollars. because each office, plastic surgeon, dermatologist also advertises, they advertise on their own dollar or sometimes from allowances from us. they're good at social media, they're good at buying billboards and tv time. we have a very large national campaign for kybella right now, we have a national campaign for
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botox. we are just scratching the surface. that technology works, it's a high customer satisfaction score. >> there's so much here. brent saunders, president and ceo of aller beg lelerganallerg. i do believe you get a bargain here, it's up from the bottom, but it's going to have an unbelievable 2017 and 2018. "mad money" is back after the break.
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it is time for "the
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lightning round." [ buzzer ] and then "the lightning round" is over. are you ready, skee-daddy? it's time for "the lightning round." we'll start with tyler in arizona. >> caller: how are you doing? i'm a young investor in arizona, i have been watching your show every day for a few years. but i also inherited stock in thermofisher. >> thermofisher had a phenomenal quarter, i think it can go to $200. >> caller: boo-yah, cramer, thanks for taking my call. i'm in the basement of the house of pain with rand resources. >> that natural gas, we need these pipelines to start pumping into the east. if not, it's going to the south. i don't want you to sell it, it's too low. >> caller: boo-yah. i got 125 shares of western
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digital, my question is what is your price target for action alerts members and when is it time to say sianara? >> we had a little bit bigger gain, letting the rest run, because i genuinely believe it's going to be part of this mix. and that's how you're going to get the next leg. i think selling something is good, no one ever got hurt if they got a profit. let the rest run. >> caller: my daughter kendall wants to ask you about a stock. hi, a texas boo-yah. my mom and i are calling about kohl's. kss. >> i think kohl's is going to run. so kohl's is a buy. >> caller: can you tell me, and they just reported, can you tell me what you think about m
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maxlinear? >> maxlinear is a winner. i see the numbers are good, it's better than expected it's not nvidia. remember what i said about nvidia, there was nothing wrong with the business, it was the analysts and the charters. same thing with maxlinear. >> caller: i want to know about ntes. >> the only chinese stock i will recommend is albalibaba. >> caller: i have this interest in this company that is in this technology for some time, i picked up some sharings and they had a big jump on earnings and they're also into this f
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phosphorus oil technology. >> universal display, i started liking it, and i'm not backing away from it. they can be involved in both samsung and apple. this is just a really, really good company. let's go to chris in rhode island, please, ris. >> caller: so my question is on mci, the a tr-- nrr. . >> it's not an expensive stock and i would be a buyer of it. let's go to brian in florida. >> caller: jim, thank you for what you for the small investor. >> that's what this show is about, that's who i work for. thank you. >> caller: again, my stock is sprint and i know it's bumping down against a 200-day support
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line. >> right. >> caller: and i am concerned about whether it's going to break through that, do i hold on to this? do i buy more? >> it was just okay quarter. i prefer t-mobile to sprint. let's go to john in pennsylvania. >> caller: a boo-yah hto you frm newtown, pennsylvania. i want to know what you think of wpg? >> shopping centers, it's just a no-go. i'm not going there, i'm just not. let's go to lawrence in missouri. >> caller: boo-yah, jim. thank you for the wonderful work and the wonderful giving that you do. i have a new stock formerly minnesota power, it's allete
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incorporated. i do need to hold it or sell it? >> it's got a good balance sheet, it's a good company, i think you should hold it. that concludes "the lightning round." we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms where you can share strategies, ideas, even actual trades with market professionals and thousands of other traders? i know. your brain told my brain before you told my face. mmm, blueberry? tap into the knowledge of other traders on thinkorswim. only at td ameritrade.
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in this economy, are the best companies the ones that bring their business to the customer? xpo logistics is deploying their fleet to haul cargo of all shapes and sizes. is the boom in digital commerce a reason to stick with xpo for the long haul? let's talk about a stock that's been totally on fire this year, xpo logistics, you know we like this one, it's a global
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provider of transportation lodge gisticses services that has already rallied 18 to 20%. even though the company's sales came in a tad light, they posted a magnificent earnings. wall street was only looking for 15 kraents. it's been signing a lot of new contracts. in response the stock jumped nearly 8% the next day and it's kept climbing, they had a brand-new all-time high today. let's dig deeper with brad jacobs, he's the chairman and ceo of the company. mr. jacobs, welcome back to mad muff money. what we had in that little clip, facilitate nearly 12 million home installations annually. so people should be knowing your company? >> people who buy appliances, or
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who buy home exercise equipment, they should know us. >> and if they are intermodal, that would be your guys. >> it was a $500 million contract over three years. >> wow. okay. you made an acquisition in europe. you said uk, italy, netherlands on fire. europe turned out to be great for now? >> europe's done very well because we have a big emphasis on contract logistics. we had the largest e-fulfillment platform in europe. we're the lead in fashion logistics and food logistics. you talk about how you got in a reverse lodgistics u contest. >> about 30% of our commerce is e commerce. the e commerce customers buy
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things and return a handful of them. that logistics is a big and growing business. >> now you spent $425 million on technology. where is that going? i don't think of trucking companies as technology companies. >> we invested in technology right in the beginning of the company, in 2011, 2012. and be able to transmit information that's useful to the customer in real time. >> how do you do it? is there some map somewhere? because i can see you're in every place. so this must be just a massive, massive difficulty to keep track of everything. >> we have 1,600 it professionals. it's a very strong group. >> i thought that mna was going
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to be key, but right now you're reaping the harvest, there's going to be tremendous cash flow and it's going to be building and building. >> we did those two big acquisitions back in 2015. >> they panned out fantastically. >> a lot of work went into making them work out well, it didn't happen randomly. we're 90% done with the integration, we still have lots of profit and improvement going on. we'll return to the mna market. maybe the beginning of next year. >> you're number one in almost every category and you think business is pretty darn good? >> it's good, but it's not good everywhere. we look at it in two cat guys, we have transportation as a segment. we have contract lodge swris aches as a segment. we have to work hard to get the results we're getting, supply chain business is coming to us. >> your share is actually
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increasing, not decreasing. >> we had 12% top line organic growth in supply chain in europe. >> it's just a remarkable story, it really is. that's brad jacobs, chairman and ceo of xpo logistics. get the largest refund they deserve. one million people can benefit from precision cancer care. 197 million passengers can fly with less turbulence. i am on my way to working with one billion people. i look forward to working with you.
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we said that nvidia was doing well. he said he delivered to data centers, those are the three most powerful areas in tech. what's happening tonight blow ace way the numbers. where are all those sellers from 101, 102, they're probably where the apple sellers were. there's always a bull market somewhere, i promise to find it for you. i'm jim criamer and i will see you tomorrow.
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