tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC May 10, 2017 12:00pm-1:01pm EDT
his investigation. a spokesperson now confirming to politico that was not the case. the market is going to have to digest these conflicting reports. one reason we've been in this range all day. >> look at the price of oil. it's rocketing higher. 3%. energy stocks are outperforming, big moves on those companies and disney shaving 18 points off the dow. to the half. >> the trump rally, why it has stalled out and if it can resume. with us for the hour -- let's begin with the markets. stocks again in a tight range today. the focus scarily on the white house. and decision to fire james comey has us wonder whag it means for the trump agenda and your money.
we have the latest from the white house. >> we've heard from the president of the united states and the vice president of the united states, the pressure just a little while ago summoning reporters into the oval office where he was seated next to henry kissenger. the president addressing this that a question from a reporter asked about his decision to fire james come qul. here's what he had to say. >> why did you fire director come? >> because he one doing a good job, simply. >> that is a much broader reasoning for firing james comey than was offered by the deputy attorney general who said in his letter released last night that he was critical of james comey for his handling of the hillary clinton e-mail situation last fall. the president there offering a blanket explanation, saying comey simply wasn't doing a good
job b in general. a sligt deaf rinse we'll ask about later this afternoon. also, the vice president was on capitol hill today, he was asked by kristen welker who in fact ordered this review of james comey? was it the president? he's cha exchange. >> tid the president ask the deputy attorney general to conduct a review of director comey? >> the new deputy attorney general, who was just sworn in two weeks ago and confirmed by the fbi, he is a man of integrity and a reputation of both political parties of great character. came to work, sat down before the recommendation before the fbi to be b able to do its job, that it would need new leadership. he brought that recommendation to the president.
attorney general concurred and i personally am grateful. >> he stated a kronology of events and talked about the reputation around town here in washington, d.c. sochlt that is one of the questions that we expect that sarah huckabee sanders will address in the white house press briefing room at 1:30 when she will be taking the place of sean spicer today and dealing with the questions syrup rou surrounding this, most importantly, who ordered this review and why yesterday? why did this have to come to a head yesterday in such a surprise iing fashion? >> thank you so much. the real question now seems the most pressing for investors. what does this mean for tax reform and everything the president hopes to get done over the year and beyond? john harwood following that story for us.
john. >> the administration's agenda is in trouble and the administration itself is in trouble. you've got an energized democratic opposite. om fragmentation on the republican side. you had criticism from richard burr. other senators, jim flake, ben sass, john mccain, all being critical. this has a barbara come stock, a republican member from northern virginia call iing for a specia investigation. this rising heat on republicans over the administration's conduct and the firing of james comey makes it manufacture difficult for the congress to digest the issue of health care, tax reform, legislative changes to dodd frank, this is just beginning for the white house, but it is a difficult, difficult moment. >> john, thank you. in d.c. for us. so, doc, market again in this sort of holing pattern.
what if it's more delayed than people expect because of this poisonous atmosphere in d.c.? sf . >> it is a poisonous atmosphere, but just as john was addressing that question as to whether or not this stops the agenda or anything like that -- >> it's just in this tight range. >> again, i'm not trying to read too much into that. the only person that probably thought comey was doing a good job was himself. both sides, republicans and democrats have had plenty of criticism for this guy. i understand people saying is this ab overreach, but i don't
see this as a driver at all. i'll take the opposite side of john harwood on this. i don't think this means anything for the stock market. this agenda, it's still second half story. nothing has changed. do we still likely see tax reform in the second half? i believe so. is the senate going to pass a modified version of the repeal and replace? i believe that as well. is anybody going to step in the back of him rolling regulations? i don't think so. >> not the other side. i think it's expectations base and the market got ahead from an expectations standpoint. listen, this is an ambitious legislative agenda that runs across a number of fronts. whether it be tax reform, hemt care, global engagement, right. >> are they going to be patient for that? >> i think you're going to see a
pivot in way from what is possible and practical and there is some reform coming. when you marry that with the base case, can which is improving corporate earnings, which have been incredible this quarter and accelerating global economic growth, i think it's a backdrop where "headline news" donot scare you. >> why then it gets the backdrop of without question, strong earnings, why can't the market, i don't know what brings us out of the dull drums he said, but my expectation is that this is not a normal resting state. it's going to break hard one way or the other. >> i think there is downside risk. that's done, you look ahead and i don't see what the catalysts to further growth are. you don't see it in the
it's a dak rouse thing. we were saying the actually vix, the amount that the s&p 500 is moving, the full range on the day, not close to close. the full range is a is seven. so when we're pricing at a 10, that's 40% premium. over where the actual is. >> i feel like you're explaining it away. >> i don't know why the market is not moving. >> it could be what rob said, there's so much cash that's nervous and not in the market. when we've seen a one and a half% pullback, you see cash thrown at this market. you saw it afterthe french elections a week ago, after trump's speech to congress two months ago.
that's cash they pulled out of other investments and chabsed. >> it's part of this rotation. >> financials kicked it you have. they were phenomenal. technology, outstanding, you look across the board. what's not been dragging us when they talk about rotation, oil, energy. you start to look at where are the parts of the market that are missing this out. when you look at a ten vicks, 6 vicks, .6% move every day. not once a week, not once a month. every day, that means you're pricing in a .6, we have getting close to that, so there is a fear premium built into this
price from 7 to 10. at the lower end when talking about a nip or ten vix, you own it for protection any way. sfwl does anybody think the market, it's not absurdly expensive considering where rates are. >> in this growth and inflation, the market should be traded this level historically. i'm going to agree jim on something. typically what you see is the leaders in the beginning half of the year leading the second half. so what i'm looking to do is move into the energies, the financial, those that have lagged and i think that rotation can take place so the market can stay steady. >> you have to have facts to back up why you're rotating into those areas. you've got to have oil start to change.
in the energy name, but we've had energy names over the past couple of week, they're performing even with oil just hanging around. >> to get the next catalyst moving again. >> oil making an up move? the agenda? what is it? with the agenda being pushed out to second half, i've learned not to, i agree with john that the market doesn't care, but for a different reason. i think the market decided in february and march. this was an incompetent administration and none of this stuff was going to happen. so you don't see the market budging because the agenda is getting pushed off because they never thought. that's evidenced in prices. please don't take my word for it and don't go by sentiment polls. look at what's going on with asset classes and sectors. all of trump trade rally took
place from november to the first week of december then stopped on a dime. the untrump trades health care and tech, are the two leading sectors, the trump trade, infrastructure, material, financials, all lagging and not by a little bit. like double digit percentage points, so the market never believed this was going to happen. people are not investing that way. they're buying giant technology stocks. they have more faith in tim cook. they're throwing money at overseas markets. they want to own blue chips, just don't want to overpay for ours. they're buying tech, but leaving the big oil companies out. >> do the tech stocks in other areas of the market that have rallied at the expension of the trump trades. >> they will not hold up.
but they might better than the rest of the market jeff uses this to market action being all that matters. you have seen copper, steel, energy. you've seen these underperform substantially because nobody believes there's a trillion dollar infrastructure bill that's going to rain down from heaven. no one thinks you're going to get this massive deregulatory push for the banks. >> i hope they believe energy prices are up 46% and that's going to have an impact on earnings.
we don't see a v shape recovery in oil. we see a nice bounce off and that's been it. how long have we been on the same five or ten point range? >> has it been six month sns. >> it has been. you make good argument, but there's other kauss. >> the market is making these arguments. i'm not lay eerring on opinion on top of it. i think you've got to go further. i do. because if we're going to use oil, we're looking at a possible macro economic indicator, which is what it has traditionally been. it is not that anymore. it is now just a commodity where supply matters just as much as demand.
i don't think these are the big picture indicators. you're say iing it's at 47 becae there's too much supply. it's absolutely not what we're say iing. we're saying that people that were investing based on this idea, that all of sudden, it was reagan 2.0. they've been disillusioned for months now. it's a nonevent for the stock market. but the market is not betting on that. so, if it happens, you asked me a question, here's my answer. what's the next upside catalyst? if we are all of o a sudden surprised at the b ability of the administration to work with congress and start passing stuff that's meaningful for the economy, that would be tremendous for stock prices. if it doesn't happen, i'm arguing the market no longer expects it to any way. and financials and crude oil,
the energy complex, scott. you get those back instead of on their backside. you get them back. but there's about a 90 some odd chance that the fed is going to move again in june. i think that helps the financials out. i think you're going to see some reform in the second half along with those other things. >> if she moves and the s&p is more than 10% off its record high, he is going to be on twitter calling for her head. mark my words, remember i said it. i'm not so sure we want to take that chance. >> i agree, but i think the macro narrative is starting to become more important right now.
the vel ocity of money is pickig up. corporations are spending. it's no surprise. there is no surprise, yes, business confident, consumer confidence, small business optimism. there's a micro narrative that's very powerful and i will tell you, it's going to help velocity of money pick up and when velocity of money picks up, profits will pick up. we'll make that the last word. >> we'll be back after this. a lot more ahead on the halftime report. >> next up, two dow components raising a lot of questions. disney, after reporting results yesterday, see if the traders are standing by their call to buy the stock. plus, a conviction short from one noted analyst on intel. we'll hit them both, next. this is the halftime report on cnbc. brian, i just need to know if the customer app will be live monday. can we at least analyze customer traffic? can we push the offer online?
brian, i just had a quick question. brian? brian... legacy technology can handcuff any company. but "yes" is here. you're saying the new app will go live monday?! yeah. with help from hpe, we can finally work the way we want to. with the right mix of hybrid it, everything computes. looking from a fresh perspective can make all the difference. it can provide what we call an unlock: a realization that often reveals a better path forward. at wells fargo, it's our expertise in finding this kind of insight that has lead us to become one of the largest investment and wealth management firms in the country. discover how we can help find your unlock.
intel is lower after bernstein name d the stock one f their conviction shorts. the firm saying a multiyear case against the stock has been playing out. it is our call of the day. jim, you own it. you've got to ignore the acquisiti acquisition. you've got to ignore the valuation. he put some valuation. >> what's the low?
>> not saying you have to love it, scott, but if you're going o to short this, you're going to be paying the 3% dividend yield while you're short. to whoever you borrowed the shares from and you've got more risk to the upside than to the downside. >> i'm going to go down the list with some of the things they say. >> the company needs growth. number two. third, the world seems to be moving against strength. the stock is expensive. greater than 19 times in the tenth history. if he wants to use it, fine.
using his numbers, it's trading at 15 times. you've got to skip over the fact there's higher cap exthis year than projected going forward. if you look around six or seven times using his numbers, it's cheap. >> you can paiyou can paint a picture baseded on what the stock is is is. whobt the other major issues? world moving against strength. >> start with data center. looking at high single digits for this year over next. that is a disappointment from where we are a year ago, but that's been priced into the stock. you got to remember intel scale here, when you get growth, they've got these b fab plants all over the world their marg
marginal costs to produce chips is next to nothing. they start printing money. so, first of all, here's what's in your favor. the sector isn't in great shape. intel is a big part of the semiindex. the it's been holding it back. tech's been ripping. okay? the smh is up 14.5% year to date. chips has been have been playing the game. intel hasn't been doing anything. >> you're finding a positive including today. down five straight days.
that's where you want the bulls to come in and they did. you have a downgrade that barely hits it. tells you a little something about the appetite for this name. again, i think there are better seminames, i'm in nvidia. there are better names, but this is not tesh. what's jim's right is mobile eye. ilt hasn't done anything because of this $15 billion ak wii sags. now, all those things take a lot of time to play through. if it's an airline deal, they -- this is a new step for them. it's 15 billi$15 billion, yeah, have it. that's not the problem.
it's a big deal. >> six months, in other words, the ninth month of the year, september, my birthday if you're shopping, scott. it's a lot like microsoft. they have made two ak wii sagss. 16 billion. in the meantime, they're giving you yield and the stock is just off the highs of 38 on the sixes. even on this dwix sell, what's the stock doing today? down 25 cents. the bulk of the move was in the first six months of the last 12.
much like the financials. you get a big move in the financials because the trump bump, then we've paused. next step happens for the financials. when we start to see the rates go up. >> if you don't want to own it, but don't short this. that's just dangerous. don't short it. >> up next, a double dose of the unusual. the brothers trabing the action in the options market. stay tuned for their latest picks. think again. this is the new new york. we are building new airports all across the state. new roads and bridges. new mass transit. new business friendly environment.
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>> nuance. nuan. former icahn, the apple of his eye back in the day. so swell, but now, somebody's betting on a move like that. it's up 9% today. people didn't want to scramble in and buy more stock. they bought upside calls. the june 19 calls, now it's the at the money calls. i think that's a much better risk reward for more upside out of the stock. that's what they bought. i'll probably be in it for two weeks, they expire over five weeks from now. i'll be in them, too. >> pete, you've got neighbors. >> going to the energy side once again. we've had this over the last couple of weeks. going to update this. but in neighbors, pretty interesting. the move today, up about 30%. 3% rather, with 30 cents on this stock. this thing is an range over the
last 52 weeks, so we're still near the lower epd, but it's starting to make a move and now, we're seeing the june 11 calls, so just out of the money calls. 30 cents, 6,000 of those were bought today. i got into that as well. i like what they're looking at. feels like energy, some of those beta names, the higher beta names in energy starting to move to the upside. noble, we talked about the options. trimmed more of that today. still holding on to some of that. keep an eye on these names because they're starting to move to the upside. >> guys, come on back this way. we have a news alert from washington and once again with eamon at the white house. >> yes, scott, cnbc and nbc news are posting a new story to both news organization websites at this hour. senate intelligence committee has requested information about donald trump and his aides from the unit in the treasury department that imposed a $10
million civil penalty on trump taj mahal in 2015 for multiple violations of antimoney laundering laws. it's the financial crimes enforcement network and that would have the court repoauthor demand nation about donald trump, his aides, family members and others from banks here in the united states or that have branches here in the united states and we are told that this request according to an aide covers information regarding trump, his family, his businesses and his associates. so, scott, new information here on what exactly the senate intelligence committee is looking into and what documents it has requested from the treasury department. >> we're less than an hour or so away from the briefing. >> we're expecting sarah saunders here at 1:30 where she'll answer questions on all this. >> look forward to that. >> thanks so much.
>> sue has the latest headlines. >> indeed, i do. thank you very much. here's what's happening. nato secretary meeting with british prime minister theresa may in london and he says the alliance is reviewing requests if additional troops to be sent in afghanistan. >> our biggest military operation ever is our operation in afghanistan. it's about fighting terrorism. about preventing that afghanistan becomes a safe haven for national terrorists. >> here at home, the u.s. postal service is hoping it can soon raise prices by a penny or more. this after reporting a quarterly loss $562 million. le legislation would allow a one cent increase. and justin bieber arriving in mumbai for his purpose tour. the singer as you can see there,
was welcomed by fans as he stepped out of the airport. he will perform before 40,000 fans a bit later today. that's the news, over to tyler, our own rock star with what's coming up on "power lunch." >> it was rumored about a week ago that bieber was in my town watching the school play of a dear friend of his. >> you know what, i did hear those rumors. you live in a hopping town. >> we are in a hopping town. all righty and i appear that every day there, by the way, about 6:30 in the ooempk. coming up, the fallout from comey's firing. what about the president's agenda? how do the two connect is this if at all. snap getting ready to report earnings after the bell. should you by the stock, ahead of the numbers and $100 million home, who doesn't want to see them in? more and more of them are coming around. halftime report right back after this.
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80% rise. that stock sharply up again today after a better than expected earnings. here's what mr. lef said about wayfair when he was on with us back in the fall. >> shipping furniture is expensive. that's why wayfair has zero business, zero future. try to send a couch. try to return your couch. tell me how that works out. >> all right, well he's back with us from los angeles. welcome back. you're still short this name? >> i feel just fine. i think it was the same interview i recommended buying restoration at hardware to 30, but that's double to 60, but we don't want the talk b about that. >> we can talk about this after we talk about this. >> who cares, who cares. i think it's a wonderful opportunity to short wayfair. the company still loses more money, i think they're cash burden was the second highest ever. they're showing no path to profitability whatsoever.
there was a short squeeze in stock. today's a new day. do i want to be short in stock sm $63, no doubt for the company to ever grow into this valuation, they're just showing no path to it whatsoever. i want to say one thing the viewers should heed to. last week, patrick burn, the ceo of overstock, put out a presentation why he showed way fair as buying revenues and how their business is unsustainable. the reason that's unsustainable is this. when a competitor discusses someone else and how their business is a house of cards, it should be watched. if you remember with the whole valiant situation,all al eal gt business was unsustainable, a year. so overstock, did a pond presentation on the slides sh showing how way fair is running an unsustainable business. >> you've got momentum though moving against you. in this particular trade.
i mean, literally as we're having the conversation and you're saying you would still be short and you're adding to your short. the stock is literally adding value as we're having this conversation. >> that's wonderful because i'm going to tell you what's working for me. i'm going to leave and go play golf. when i go play golf, i have jeff bezos and mark from walmart, who have not yet competed in the space who said we're going to start getting more aggressive on furniture. they're working for me. so, after a short-term stock price, what it does in the next five moiinutes, i don't care. what i'm worried b about is will the company make money and how is the space going to look. >> we're not talking about the last five minutes. >> i understand that. that's what happens. when you're a short seller, you have to say sometimes, i think i was on your show a few months ago after the emotionmobile acquisition. argument looked weird, what the ip would be worth.
and george soros says i'm not rich because i'm right. i'm rich because i know when i'm wrong. i know when i'm wrong. with wayfair, my timing is off right now, which is fine. i'll wait until next quarter. instead of 63, it will be 33, 23, then you'll invite me on the show and i don't know, we'll find another reason to beat up on me then. >> we'll talk about restoration hardware at that point. as for the profit bability issue, i'm reading a quote here from a piper jaffray analyst who wrote in a note to client, all this, shares look attractive as revenue growth has stopped deaccelerating. we can see a path to full year ebitda profit bability in the u.s. for 2017. how did we know revenue growth has stock deaccelerating. this is the first quarter they've had in the history of the company. i don't know how that he can say that. and it's nice to know that for five and a half billion, you might get a path to profitabl
profitability. i would like to hear from the ce of of williams sonoma would like to say about that. we might have a path to profitable i one day and that's before amazon and walmart really go to our business hard. i'm very comfortable with this position. >> what's fair value for the stock? at one point, you said it was under ten bucks, now, you say if it goes back to 45. >> how about this. if i showed this to a private equity, the answer and say how much would you pay? they'd probably say to me, how much will you pay me to take this company? they're losing $50 million last quarter, so what's it worth? if we consider this a mature company right now, it's a single digit company, not even. they'd have to raise money, so no whoa knows what it's worth. there's been a thesis shift. last week, people said it's a buyout target, which is a lot easier to focus on rather than profitability. there's zero way to value this company right now. it is a money losing company
that is, it competes against the giants of e commerce. >> hi, it's josh brown. so, for the viewers and most you know, most people are not sophisticated short seller, what would have to happen for you to say i want to close up shop on this short. would it be something way fair itself or industry? what would be the thing that would tell you? >> by the way, if all of a sudden tomorrow, amazon and walmart said you know what, we're not going compete in the furniture space. we'll let way fair take the home furnishing space. i'd have to rethink my thesis. or if they showed the business became scale bable. there's nothing this company can do to make you dhang chochange n it. even if they became profitable, that would be the worst thing to happen in this company, ever. because then, it would be judged like a real company. >> people could compare. >> it's so much easier not to make a profit. that's ilt. every day, you have to look at
your stocks. it's a brand-new day. at $63 a share, saw whag a saw on the quarterly report yesterday, would i be short the stock? yes, twice the conviction i had last week. >> we weren't beating up on you, you know that? >> i'm used to it. i like it, actually. >> i thought you were going to say bezos was in your foursome on the golf course after this. let's talk nvidia. a one-time short-term short? do you have a position? none. on december 28th, it was trading 118, 119. i said the stock should trade back. i'm sorry, i missed the bottom. >> is it a gut feel you get when
you see a stock that rips like nvidia? >> it's different. it's a different story. it's a very big story. where will the stock be in three or four years based on this? they show they're beating their competition to the punch. we were just discussing intel and the controversial acquisition. it's nice to see they get a sell because of their lack of direction. where nvidia's been right on track. even though it's still a gaming company. what's interesting about way fair, is you see selling blue sofa, i'm selling it directly against walmart, against amazon. everyone else and at a loss, not a profit. that's where i want to be short right now. now, tomorrow, nvidia went from today's earnings of 119 and the stock went to 135, i would think maybe the market overreacted, so there's a trade or investment.
my nvidia short was always a trade. the way fair short is a complete investment. >> i can tell in your tone and enthusiasm that's the case. we'll talk to you soon. hit them straight. >> thank you. >> we did reach out to wayfair. they have no comment, however, they will later. because the cofounder and ceo is going to be on the closing bell. an exclusive interview, clearly, you don't want to miss that. especially now. so you'll hear from the ceo later on today. halftime report back after this.
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my heart is worth brilinta. if you can't afford your medication, astrazeneca... ...may be able to help. to be a nightmare! does nobody like the future? c'mon, the future. he obviously doesn't know intel is helping power autonomous cars and the 5g network they connect to. with this, won't happen in the future. thanks, jim. there's some napkins in the glovebox. okay, but why would i need a napkin? you could have just told me a bump was coming. we know the future. because we're building it.
welcome back to "the halftime report." i'm jackie deangelis. we are watching crude oil today seeing its best day since november. surging nearly 4% on bullish supply data this morning. brian, this was the first significant drawdown that we saw. are you convinced it's time to get in here? >> jackie, actually i'm not. you get the drawdown and sometimes these numbers are a couple months delayed on what's going on in the marketplace. we've had talks from opec saying we would cut back on supplies and we're getting a rise here and obviously the drawdown is an issue. this is a bear market rally. $45 is the target you have to be looking at for oil. we have the oil volume it tilt index rising as of late. to me there's fear and uncertainty where the price is going, and for that reason i think it will be difficult to figure out a nice price to stop at and continue to rise to the upside. i would be a seller if we get anywhere above this $48 level here. look for it to trade back to
$45. >> scott, he's saying look to $45. would you say look to $50? >> i agree with brian. i think we'll see more down than up largely because we're still below where we were when opec started cutting production. you'll see the chart in no man's land. i think it's way too call a bottom. we're below the recent important levels. we see shale produce remembers pumping like crazy. libya will come online. there's plenty of reason to think we'll see more down side. >> actually the highest since 2014. that's an issue that could take us lower. guys, thank you so much. for more "futures now" head to the website and catch our live show tomorrow at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. hey gary, what are you doing? oh hey john, i'm connecting our brains so we can share our amazing trading knowledge. that's a great idea, but why don't you just go to thinkorswim's chat rooms
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together, we are perfectly balanced, our senses awake, our hearts racing as one. i know this is sudden, but they say: if you love something... set it free. see you around, giulia ♪ we're back. snap with its first earnings report after the bell today. josh, what do you expect? >> just really quickly i went back and look. facebook fell 11% the first time it reported a quarter. twitter fell 24% the first time we reported a quarter. this is a slightly different setup because i think, you know, we've learned a lot in those situations, so maybe not that much volatility but don't fall out of your chair. the numbers a 4x increase in revenue this quarter from the
same quarter a year ago but a 5% decline from q4, sequential. so it's not quite a mega growth story when you're looking at a shorter time horizon but it's a lot of revenue growth. we'll have to see what they say. >> would you be a buyer or a seller? >> i have a buy stop limit above $30 i want in and then i have a buy limit i think it's $12 or $13. so if they kill it, i want in. i don't want the middle ground. it's either heaven or hell. that would be the way i trade it. >> some final trades. you're up first. >> i that i think look at xle here. the second half rotation will start to happen. you're seeing strength in energy prices. i think it will happen sooner than most expect and i would get on that train. >> good for the overall market if you get oil moving up, energy stocks moving up, yeah? >> talking about energy and the beta names. keep an eye on the health care names getting forgotten as we talk about everything else. keep an eye on a sanofi.
i think they're going higher. >> up more than 1%. >> atw, unusual call ak it tift and abo activity. >> i dealt with the pullback. i stayed long and i'm going to keep it. >> jimmy? >> long the xrt. retail earnings this week. >> good stuff, guys. thanks. "power" starts now. the fallout from the president's firing fbi director james comey continues, and there are two big questions that still need to be answered. number one, will anger over this move, even among some in the gop, damage the trump agenda? and, two, why doesn't the stock market seem to care about everything going on in d.c.? we will dig into both. plus, trouble in the magic kingdom. disney shares getting hit today, concerns about espn dragging down earnings, but are those concerns overdone? another good question. i'm brian sullivan. "power lunch" has answers. we start right now.