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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  July 31, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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changes that represent something that david talked about in the paid tv industry together they have 20% of ad supported paid audience in the u.s. they had a big female viewership, combining tlc, own, food network all under one roof. it will be interesting to see how they can compete. >> let's get to the half >> welcome to the halftime report our top trade this hour slashing facebook the stunning downgrade to sell the analyst that made that call is with us live today. is it time to get out of this market darling with us today joe, jim, josh brown, steve is here as well also from los angeles today is ross levinson. the media insider and cnbc contributor.
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>> investors are considering the risks to the companies growth. making that move today joins us live brian, welcome. >> thanks for having me. >> yeah, one of the big reasons that you made this call today. >> there's several my view on the stock in business is that it's a great business and a great stock accept for the fact that it hasn't gotten a lot better in the last 8 months. in fact the conditions around it have gotten worse. you know political macro uncertainty. that's not good for them you have more awareness at least on my part that's a new consumer privacy protection policy that will be in effect as of may of next year. that's using data to target advertising that very few investors are even aware of in the united states. next you have increasing problems with viewability that marketers were not aware of last year and 2% of ads viewable by one study i have seen. 20% by some others
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i don't think most large marketers are aware of this and hasn't impacted how they were budgeted you see the news on thursday about how much they cut their digital ad spending. we can argue we haven't seen it play out it takes time but the reality is they're cutting their spending and it won't make a meaningful difference as the fact that they're talking so much about what they're doing will cause more marketers to apply more scrutiny. >> the biggest single factor that investors are not considering though is we're approaching point of saturation for digital advertising. facebook and google today count for 78% of digital advertising spending outside of china. an i'm an optimist and that that's they get to 93%. and your terminal growth rates it's not realist toic to assume that they could tap into the
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marketing budget it's really not a 5 or $600 billion global market. it's trillions there's marketing out there. no even amazon has a hard time getting marketing budgets to play nice with advertising budgets and they're the only ones in a good position to do it facebook is not. >> you're looking for a $30 move in the stock where's your price target? >> well, it's 140. to be clear i'm not saying the stock is going to move today or tomorrow i'm saying this is what i think it's worth so when i have a $940 price target on google would i rather be exposed to google rather than facebook absolutely. >> it's josh brown over the last 140 point rally in facebook over the last 4.5 years every single downgrade, pretty much yours included has been something to the effect of there aren't any execution problems the company is doing great but investors aren't anticipating
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the risk and paying for it why do you think it's different? is there some inflection point where all of a sudden every growth, every tech fund, every indexer is going to say you know what, it is expensive? >> i'm not saying that that's necessarily what happens what i'm saying is would i rather something else? in other words would i rather be exposed to google? i have a dozen names that i have hold i have one buy would i rather have an alternative? if you told me you're stuck with facebook the next five years for the business as a stock. fine, it's okay. it's great but would i rather have an alternative? that's how i look at it. >> first of all, i want to congratulate you too many analysts found momentum in the stock and keep raising the price target to follow the stock price. it's gone way past that and it's time for me to take it where the price of the stock should match
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what i think the fundamentals were so congratulations on that however where i disagree with you are on the fundamentals and procter & gamble is one company but to me what they're going to do is they're going to put the spending to the companies that don't bring returns on their ad dollars and that won't be facebook that won't be google it will be the third t 4th tier, the second tier companies that they're allocating spending to facebook is not an expensive company for what they're growing at and what they're providing shareholders and the execution and how they continue to invest. so they have created a moet around the country i think it continues to perform. how do you account for that as well as what you're talking about on the other side is what everybody is talking about forever in terms of digital, in terms of what you're actually getting on the click throughs and so forth
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isn't that just old news at this point? >> first of all, thank you for the compliment but the second point of what procter & gamble is doing, the reality is they're cutting spending on just about every media owner that's digital. the problem that i'm pointing out is that when they're applying as much scrutiny as they are to facebook included every other major large brand will be doing the same most will continue to increase their spending but take view bability as one issue. very few are aware of how poor it is. when we talk about why that matters for facebook in particular for the 30% or so they're not allocating budgets to digital adverse tiegz atisin facebook in particular in terms of clicks. budgeting to digital advertising or tv or any other medium is
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based on a sheer allocation that's largely sentiment driven. that's how large marketers allocate their budgets you realize only 2% are being seen to be clear that's on a very low standard relative to television and you start to reassess your models a marketing mixed model or media mixed model it won't look as good your point i think is correct there. >> thank you very much. >> first of all for brian, i know fund managers in salem, massachusetts that are ready to tie him up to a stake and burn him like a witch that was a very balsy call and what i found intriguing about
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him defending it is he is saying the platform facebook itself now i look at this call from two different perspectives number one is he telling me that when i spend my dollars and i do spend money on facebook the king has no clothes that's a big call hearsaying it's basically a me tritric tha people aren't considering. number two, is he making a call on digital advertising slowing because if i'm going to put an allocation to any two stocks that have the majority share of this business it's google and facebook and if you tell me one of them has no clothes on then i have to ask what's going on with the whole space. >> it almost feels like look you could make a call, could you not, okay the stock is up 50% in a year so maybe it's time to take the
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chips off the table. does it feel that's the real story and analysts trying to build a case of what ifs around that. >> i think he said that brands like procter & gamble want to make sure that when they buy display advertising for example they're above the fold and not below. i'm in this world so i know this stuff. i think he's saying that there are some large companies like p&g that are looking at the money they're spending and saying turns out if we cut spending we don't see any drop off in revenue so there is some efficiency. maybe we don't need to spend quite as much. that's not necessarily a knock on facebook specifically if you actually read the note he's saying let's just digital spend in general. >> actually, you're still with us >> i am. >> do you want to respond directly to kevin o'leary? >> yeah, no, i mean, he's reiterating my point i'm saying that for many advertisers, not all, they were not considering
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all the negatives of digital advertising until about two years ago. there's a trade group of large marketers where someone did say the emperor has no clothes on all parts of the digital supply chain and that started an effort in fact the opposite was true because they could not because they could tell it mattered i argue that all advertising spent because it's the least ineffective way to spend your money. you have to spend it somewhere it's all flawed. it all has problems so where's the least bad way to spend your money. if you're expedia you're trying to drive people to your site digital the advertising is where
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you'll put your budget but they started to realize that the first and most important thing they need to do is reach as many people as possible and that's not necessarily digital advertising. that's television. so advertisers find scrutiny in ways they weren't. >> people tried to call the top in this stock before and they have been burned if the market continues to go up, the nasdaq just coming off of a fantastic month as is the nasdaq 100 if the leadership group continues to perform, why wouldn't facebook just continue to be the darling or at least one of the darlings. >> the company just reported 28% growth in revenues i don't care what procter & gamble says. i care what the results of the company are which is that they're an outlier. >> go ahead. >> really gutsy call
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brian has been out front of a lot of tech stocks in the past heres the plus and the minus from my perspective. his call on the transparency piece is really important. facebook has been difficult in regards to actual data they don't open their platform very well. they don't embrace you as an advertising and that's a really important call on the flip side we're not talking about the two fastest assets that they have which is what's app and instagram and the potential that probably exists there and lastly and most important what mark zuckerberg and sheryl sandberg have proven, in terms of growing this core business that maybe
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starts to flatten over the next couple of years they're going to buy their way to growth which is what every tech company does i agree on transparency and we're missing another key factor but that's a tiny piece of the overall revenue.
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the street doesn't want to hear it. >> i would argue that this is not a call that everyone is going to listen to i'm trying to call where the business and the stock is worth. what the specific prices are. >> thank you for joining us. >> more commentary on the desk let's boil it down to that. >> if you own it you continue to hold it. i'm not in the stock and i'm wondering if i should be the thing that stands out the most, 2 billion users. tv is a better medium to getting to people. i don't get that this is a 2 billion user base. 139 2 times price attorneyings to growth ratio this is very attractively priced. it goes higher from here
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>> it's sort of taking a page off. why couldn't it happen to facebook. >> everyone has that issue that's not a company specific. facebook might be more or less at risk given how badly people want to target people on that platform but i think we would agree cyber security is a threat the bigger thing to me and i think i agree, he's saying that google might be a better bang for your buck as an investor just based purely on the opportunity set and what you're paying for the stock and i think there's something too that i'm long google and not long facebook so i don't have a problem with that being a conclusion but i still think both have plenty of potential to continue to do well. >> let's move more broadly to the overall faang stocks and the fact that the nasdaq 100 is up 4% for the month of july
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and considering whether this is going to continue. these are the stocks that people want to buy. look at the one month performance of all of these. amazon, okay, pulled back because of earnings. netflix up 21% and there's google at the bottom as well are these the stocks you want to still play >> why wouldn't they be. fundamentally they're continuing to show what you want a stock to do you're talking about facebook, steven points out 28% revenue growth that offsets the concerns you have as it relates to digital ads. when you talk about facebook you're talking about a stock let's go back to brian he's not here right now unfortunately but brian took facebook from a buy to a hold in early january when the price was 125. these stocks are exhibiting, check the box on everything that you want in the 2007 marketplace and if you are concerned that they are getting way ahead of themselves there are far better ways to hedge off the risk than
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the fang stocks than going in themselves and liquidate them. that's a false premise and move. you're fine in case they fall. >> do these stocks still work in the months ahead or is there going to be a continued rotation or meaningful rotation to more value sen tricentric stocks. >> i don't consider them equals. i argue that putting amazon and netflix into a portfolio adds a fair amount of risk that you don't have with facebook and google google and facebook have proven business models and cash flows are measured and multiplied and it's your determination. that's not the case for amazon including in netflix case where
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they make no money and may never or the case of amazon. you can't tell me these four all have the same systemic risk. do not have amazon and netflix but they do have it. >> apple reports earnings tomorrow. >> they have am. >> yeah. >> you know apple's quarter is going to be -- it's a throw away quarter. i don't care what they do. >> but you care what they say. that's what matters most. >> all i care about. >> it's what they say about the phones coming up in the quarter ahead. >> the only thing i care about is the release date of the next phone. if they're going to move it two weeks i don't care if they have supply side problems if they're going to be able to fix i don't care if they say anything that get mess hurt in the next quarter when the phone gets released i
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will care but my channel checks what i hear from the company my sources say this is going to be an upside call on the future of the phone. i think stock is going to do fine tomorrow. i could be wrong i don't know anything better than anybody else but there's no disaster on the supply side in terms of getting inventory ready. we're talking about tens of millions of phones that people want to buy in september and even if they delay it until october 1, no one is going to care. >> could impact what the numbers end up being for the current quarter. people are going to be hinging on any word that apple says not to mention where the services business continues to go how do you view this company today? >> business will continue to grow. >> go ahead. >> i don't put apple in the same category as the fang stocks. they're a different company. they're not in digital advertising. they're in media they have a toe in the media business that's the one to watch for me
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will it help drive the device sale i think back to the fang stocks. i also wouldn't put them in the same bucket. google is probably your safest bet there. they have an absolute dominant position in the digital advertising business that they are the place you go to spend money. i think facebook has operated really well. as efficiently as any company in the marketplace. i'm a little suspect about the long-term growth there unless they diverse identify whiify. amazon is my favorite company in the world. i said it here before. that company can do almost anything it wants. it doesn't a taxes and is almost a half a trillion dollar market cap company so i like where they're going in every different category to me, netflix is the one that i worry most about $20 billion in debt. my guess is thaer going to have to take a write down on that at some point 100 million global subscribers or more. that's good news they have levers in pricing and
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also in shutting off accounts. 3, 4, 5 people could use an account and dial that down you probably have growth there but they're the only one of the four that don't have it apple spends $10 million and netflix is spending 6 that's an issue for them plus all the companies in the overthe top streaming space of the four that's the least defensible. >> let's talk about snap the first shareholder lockup expiration happening how many shares could hit the market and what it could mean for the stock. >> shares hit an all time low this morning down about 5% before rebounding but now down just over 2% this of course after the lockup on 400 million snap shares expired over the weekend giving early investors including lightspeed venture partners a chance to sell. we reached out to both of those companies. light speed hasn't gotten back to us but general catalyst gave
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us a no comment. now the flood gates will open more on august 1th that's four days after earnings and then employees will be able to sell about 782 million shares then at the end of august another 20 million shares will become available according to jp morgan now for some comparison twitter shares drop 18% the day of its lockup expiration in may of 2014 book shares jumped 13% on the day of its lockup expiration that was november 2012 and that was the beginning of the turn around in facebook shares. now for snapchat the next major milestone are snap earnings which are weak from thursday the pressure is definitely on for ceo to show user and engagement growth after last week facebook it's much larger rival reported better than expected results having successfully copied the number of snaps most popular features back to you. >> thank you so much what do you do with this
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is today a buying opportunity? is much of the action already in the stock? given by, you know, the fact that it's only down 2% on what could have been or at least was thought to be a much deeper slide potential kind of day. >> first of all, congratulations to josh that called this you had a buy order in at 13 if i'm not mistaken. >> 12. >> all right so you're almost there. i think clearly this lockup was priced in to some degree the only, bigger days are the 10th and the 14th of this month because on the 10th i think all investors are going to be looking for our growth even the revenue side is less important because, you know, you to have time to build those ad products but if that mau number and dau number is not good that's where i would watch out the lockup here today are the big funds but if i'm sitting
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there with this big of a profit built in maybe i take a little off. the bigger day is the 14th when employees can sell and i think most employees are not that sophisticated with regards to where a stock sits they got the shares for pennies or a dollar and they're up 12 or $13. that would worry me more than today. clearly the stock sort of lef leveled off but frankly the thing about this, the last couple of weeks or the last month that bothers me more than anything is that you heard not a peep out of snapchat and i have been in companies, obviously yahoo! that has been under attack and you spend a lot of time figuring out how to combat that and come out with positive stories >> on wall street they're completely under attack. >> by that me trick thtric theye
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under attack before they went public not anymore. i would say what's actually happened is we have ways of tracking what daus and maus might be app downloads this is atrocious are down 22% how could you think there's an upsi upside it's hard. the second thing and this might be even more noteworthy, the sentiment surveys among influencers, the people that you need to be on these services driving engagement are going very negative. they're saying they want to spend more time on instagram stories. >> you are backing up his claim. they are under attack. they're under atrack. >> that's not an attack. >> they haven't been able to change the narrative >> that's not an attack. >> they made no attempts to do
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that. >> these are just facts. this is not wall street investors screaming at them, this is user engagement metrics falling off a clip. >> they can't come out and talk about it i would say let the earnings talk for themselves good or bad. if they come out try to rebutt the negative dialogue and they turn out to be true then it's worse. >> yeah if there's no good story inside of snapchat right now i'd be shocked there's something good happening there. >> so then it will come out with earnin earnings i totally disagree on one end of the spectrum you have president trump that will combat anything the minute it happens and on the other end of the spectrum you have a completely silent snapchat and i'd bet you there's something good happening there now are daus flat or growing slightly are maus flat or down,
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josh is 100% right you can look at a bunch of statistics and see if that's happening but there's good stuff going out there. i just don't understand why someone, evan that really doesn't speak i'm sure it's much better than it's rivals. >> maybe they're like your favorite company jeff besos has never come out and talked about the good things no matter who trashed the stock and it's been trashed repeatedly for an expended period of time since it's been public. >> completely different story. completely different story we have to rewind 20 years to address where it is today. >> you have facebook focused on
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killing this company and you have to fight back. >> thank you a lot more ahead where to get in... where to get out. if only the signs were as obvious when you trade. fidelity's active trader pro can help you find smarter entry and exit points and can help protect your potential profits. fidelity -- where smarter investors will always be.
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to more companies, in more locations, than centurylink. we do business where you do business. ♪ ♪ welcome back to halftime report hbo suffering a hack attack resulting in an episode of its series and another of its new series reportedly being posted online along with what is allege through part of a script for next week's game of thrones show hbo experienced a cyberattack in which it resulted in compromising information saying they're working with law enforcement and outside cyber security forms and it's obviously destructive
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such an important show for the whole time warner family. >> jury deliberations beginning today in the case against martin shkreli. >> we're about three hours into deliberation on 8 separate counts including conspiracy fraud and then stole from his former bio tech company retrofin.
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he was arrested of course the government said he could face up to 20 years when convicted >> it's necessary. >> in a year there's 50% outside from here. shares could hit $100 by 2020. an exclusive interview you told cramer that >> in a particular equity and whatever the fundamentals might be when you have that momentum you want to make sure that it's aligned properly with you coming out and reporting new earnings that's what citi has been doing lately capital allocations story better so that price target might be a
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little bit aggressive. i'm not sure but i think the upside is there. i think the upside for all the big financials are still there it's a place you could be in. >> if you just bought the break out at 63 you wouldn't need to know anything. this was as clear as a bell. we talked about it on the show when it happened after a long period of consolidation you got a huge thrust to a level that had been in resistance for a long time. you don't have to be an expert on the stock a lot of times something can be evident to everyone but price tells you when people start to care about it. so citi has been the cheapest bank out of this group of giant banks and now, now what has changed is that the street agrees that 20% compound earnings growth in addition to billions and billions now being returned all of a sudden is going to matter so gietsd to understand the fundamentals. that tells you what to buy
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technicals tells you when the market is ready to agree with you and combining those two things citi was in. >> the core fundamentals told you to buy the stock >> however they finally put out something for 2020 longer than a year that people could sink their teeth into. some of this is based on share buy backs. not all of it. there's also 10% revenue growth baked in which i think is a little aggressive but let's say it's not 10% and take it to the industry which is jp morgan jp morgan trades at 1.7 times
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tangible book. city trades at 1.0 times tangible book. that discount is simply too high they don't have to trade to parody. >> did you know that city is the best performing big bank stock to date. >> i know that. >> you use the core guidance. >> what he has done is he has the assets he has gotten rid of the assets. very risky and didn't return as much on capital as the other assets and now you are in this global synchronized recovery where you're able to go back to traditional businesses that actually penalize them as the global economy was sinking so now it's operating in reverse and i think it should recover. >> i can't wait to hear from when he is able to do it and i hope it's soon is our boy mayo.
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>> mike, yeah. >> he has been among the biggest and most vocal critics over the years of citi. >> right. >> where they have an issue still i think is near the business where if you talk to others on the street is not up to snuff. >> that could change quarter to quarter and the credit card business is probably more stable. >> complicating it way too much. the template for city in 2017 was bank of america in 2016. everyone same suspicion. ro look at what bank of america has done what it's producings. >> give me a quick wrap on that. >> >> you have to believe financials are going to out perform everything else in the s&p to buy this call
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it's 11 times earnings. >> there's a reason these trade at a material discount >> we know we know. the point is it could stay at a material discount and still see huge price increase. >> it's at book value in an improving global economy. >> any time you say you're basically saying it was really, really ugly and now it has good make up on it so it deserves to trade at 1.7. >> no it's 8 years since the end of the financial crisis. what josh was talking about with the balance sheet, sorry steve was, that is the natural roll off of all of the crummy loans they made ten years ago. it's been 8 years. they allowed them to roll off. they're not plague game with the balance sheet here it's just time >> and you will never find ceos.
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>> you need interest rates to actually get a descent spread. you guys are in a love fest with this sector. thank goodness i'm here to bring reality. we have done fairly well here. i think they're fuller to the point of view that the interest rate environment and banking regulation and all the stuff is not materialized now maybe they will. okay maybe in the first quarter of next year all of a sudden we'll get deregulation and everything else meanwhile the loan books are
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material to say the loan quality is bad flies in the face of reason. it flies in the face of facts. >> go ahead kevin. the last word goes to you. >> we're still going to know each other in 24 months and one of sus going to be right. >> i'm looking forward to it. >> i just think the best days are behind this name he has to buy you gold plated coupons. >> that's why they call it a market somebody has to disagree with you and thank goodness it's me. >> the stock reaction would suggest that the folks thagree
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with the gang here my man. >> wait and see. >> we will. >> let's go to sue herrera that has the latest headlines. >> here's what's happening at this hour, president trump holding a cabinet meeting at the white house saying he will handle the north korea situation. he was flanked by defense secretary james mattis. >> we have some interesting situations that we'll handle north korea, middle east, lots of problems that we inherited from previous administrations we will take care of them really well. >> rick scott creating a state of emergency in response to tropical storm emily that storm came ashore on florida's gulf coast this morning. you're looking at damage in ft. myers florida. prince william and his wife kate visiting a cemetery in belgium to pay their respects to soldiers killed in world war i hundreds of thousands of men on
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both sides lost their lives in the battle that lasted from july to november of 1917. you are up to date that's the news update this hour over to brian sullivan with what's ahead on power lunch. >> thank you very much big power lunch on tap for a monday including whether all the changes in washington will finally bring a little stability to the white house which could send markets higher. plus tesla's model 3 finally on the road phil got behind the wheel. he'll tell us what it was like to drive the new roadster and if that new dashboard look will be a turn on or turn off. we're excited about this all week we're making nit america. highlighting companies that are prooufg doubters wrong and successfully manufacturing in the usa. a great look at american success stories. what's wrong with a little good news it's not a bad thing. >> not at all. >> o'leary may disagree. >> we'll see at the top of the hour pete seeing unusual activity is
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going to tell us what they are in a couple of minutes i'm here to fix the elevator. nothing's wrong with the elevator. right. but you want to fix it. right. so who sent you? new guy. what new guy? watson. my analysis of sensor and maintenance data indicates elevator 3 will malfunction in 2 days. there you go. you still need a pass.
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welcome back to halftime
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>> great to see you scott. it's really interesting scott because when you look across and you start to see it, the big cap names getting huge activity. microsoft is about as big as it gets we see huge calls. and they're rolling up and out and this half is not only going to get through the highs they raise their price target from 80 to 85 so there's reasons why people are look at microsoft saying this has some upside and it's going to break out. >> are you sure? >> you love this stock you love the company. >> i do love the stock. >> they've done everything that was promised and when you look
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at cloud, the cloud, the cloud app, everything, revenue wise what is going on at microsoft, phenomenal story i suggest people look at that. very graeszive everyone is talking about free port and u.s. steel and other names. rio out there as well. very aggressive buying and stock is at a 52 week high now and people are rolling up out there as well. a shorter term september calls just out in the morning. stock was trading about 4720 and aggressive buying there. i'm in those calls i'll be in there for about a month. i'll in b microsoft for a couple of months. >> looking sharp did you go to the mall of america over the weekend >> no, i was in a great place. unbelievable had a great time >> thanks.
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when it does the index is up another 2.77% on average when bought august 1st and sold the final day of the quarter now back to scott wapner and the halftime report. >> all right less than 100 points from dow 22,000 pretty good day for stocks today. dow right now is up 85 points. nasdaq is in the red s&p 500 is up by 1 1/2 points. halftime report is back right after this d water damage... soon, insurance companies won't pay for damages. that is, not if they can help prevent damages from happening in the first place. at cognizant, we're turning the industry known for processing claims into one focused on prevention with predictive analytics, helping them proactively protect the things that matter most. get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital.
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all right. it is time now for the blitz hertz is the first stop we're talking about right now, downgraded to underweight at barclays joe, it is yours down 4%. >> yes, they did that today. they should have done it in 2012 when it was 125. weak pricing power it's all but lost. the impact of uber don't touch it >> josh, we haven't talked about gopro in i can't remember how long got an upgrade today morgan stanley strike up the band >> only bullish thing about gopro is 22% short interest. by the way, props on this upgrade. it's the first time i've ever seen an upgrade where the price target was lower than the current price. morgan stanley upgraded it but their target is 7.50 the stock is 8 and change. >> discovery and scripps >> this is an industry that's quickly consolidating and i think there's still other places you can look within the industry maybe viacom gets acquired, maybe sony is an acquirer. there's interesting spaces to play in here >> coach jefferies downgraded it to hold
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from buy >> i think jefferies had a great call the o'stock upgrading it -- >> they say it's all in. >> all priced in i'd be curious if jimmy's channel checks this weekend in women's hand r handbags. we'll get to it next week. >> a little gratuitous a little forced. you did do channel checks before we'll be right back with final trades where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? you don't. you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
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(upbeat dance music) (bell ringing)
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that's it for us "power" starts right now i'm melissa lee. what's on the menu president trump swearing in retired general kelly as his new chief of staff can he bring a bit of that military discipline to the trump agenda we'll debate that. discovery and scripps announcing their $12 billion tie-up does this mean we can look forward to shows like "deadliest iron chef," "fast and loud tiny homes," or maybe a new offering "flip or fn"

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