tv Fast Money CNBC July 31, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
as opposed to what they're going to report for the past one everywhere is puzzling over what does this upgrade cycle look like >> right. >> just because the install base is so huge is it going to be this mad rush? when are they going to deliver them >> a jobs report on friday. >> by the way -- gee, what a fun day this was let's do it again tomorrow, shall we we'll all be here tomorrow "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts now live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, i'm melissa lee. traders on the desk, tim seymour, karen finerman, guy adami. tonight on "fast," it's been a rough week for tech and rich ross says it's about to get a lot worse. he'll explain what he's looking at. plus snapchat sinking to a new low as the shareholder lockup expires there's one thing that could save the stock from massive selling. we've got all those details. later, oil having its best month since april of 2016. the commodities, dennis garvin says the rally is just getting started.
he'll tell you how he's playing it. to the story that captivated main street and everybody desk on wall street communications director anthony scaramucci, aca the mooch, was out after ten days on the job. short, eventful stint that saw memorable debut press conference followed by a bombshell. new yorker profanity-laced interview. the resignation as reince priebus as chief of staff. a divorce in the tabloids. and ended today with president trump removing him as communications director. first, we go down to kayla toush she in d.c. who's got all the details. >> reporter: anthony scaramucci's resignation less than two weeks after announced as white house communications director makes him the shorter serving staffer in that role ever but in that short period of time, he fired a press associate for alleged leaks, provoked the resignation of reince priebus, the chief of staff as you mentioned, and engaged in an on
the record back and forth with a reporter that got published. that led to his removal today which happened on the very first day of new jeff of staff general john kelly here's how sarah huckabee sanders, the white house press secretary, described this turn of events. >> i think anthony wants general kelly to be able to cop rate fully with a clean slate, fully, build his own team while at the same time the president thought his comments were inappropriate. >> reporter: the phrase, clean slate, has now appeared in multiple white house resignations sanders was asked whether there were any more slatss th s slate, has now appeared in multiple white house resignations sanders was asked whether there were any more slatss thlates sle to be cleaned. she said no. she said all white house staff will be reporting up to general kelly, different than the fractured chart under priebus before she also said the white house despite reports is as she called it, far from chaotic despite the fact there have been multiple personnel turnovers in the first six months of the administration on those comments, specifically
to the "new yorker"s, those very vulgar comments that scaramucci made last week, she said the president, personally, found them inappropriate for someone in scaramucci's position for someone who was holding a communications position within the administration now, as for scaramuccscaramucci where he'll turn up at this point. asked whether he'll take another role in the administration, because he had been previously serving as the chief strategy officer within the xm bank, sanders said he does not have a role at this time. i reached out to skybridge which was the fund of funds that scaramucci founded and is in the process of selling so he could join the administration to ask about whether he would rejoin that company now that he's no longer an employee of the white house. skybridge, for its part, declined to comment. the question now, melissa, what else is on general kelly's to-do list, what will early days as his role of chief of staff look like we will soon find out. how will the agenda be altered with someone new at the helm of
all of president trump's personnel? back to you. >> all good questions. kayla, thank you, joining us from the white house so as we mentioned despite this noise in d.c., the dow closed at a record high today. this is what we've seen all year as wall street seems to shrug off the d.c. drama, now general kelly in place as chief of staff. could this be a start of a new era of calm at the white house karen? >> i think it could be it's interesting to me, though, with all the lack of chaos, i guess they called it, that happened last week, the market was flat, absolutely flat. we talked a long time about this rally having sort of two parts the trump agenda part being near zero at this point, business animal spirits released being most of it i think that still exists. i'm very glad to see this discipline in the white house. i think it's needed, sorely needed and so maybe we could get a little bit of life in the part of the rally that is the trump agenda. >> yeah, when we're hearing the description and drabs come out on this story, various news
organizations reporting various headlines, it was almost good thing, i took it, that we heard that it was general kelly's idea that scaramucci leave. >> sure. i guess that's the best way. you know -- >> you want him to come in and have a strong hand, right? and to prove that he wants to get the house in order, no >> yeah, i just feel like these things could have been out of sequence anthony scaramucci gets this job, then kelly moves into it. priebus -- the president knew that priebus and scaramucci had conflicting ideas. so to put scaramucci there ahead of knowing priebus was going to be leaving, i do think he knew he was going to be leaving, i think it's out of place. i think it makes the white house look weak. >> interesting >> i understand what steve's saying i think anthony scaramucci went in knowing reince priebus would be out the whole thing doesn't add up to steve's point about timeline. i agree general kelly in there is great if you learned anything over the last six months to a year about president trump, he doesn't
answer to anybody but himself. as much as you love general kelly to come in and are restore order, the president is going to keep doing what he's doing which is not the focus of the show what's interesting, the vix still closed lower on the day which is remarkable, you know, the market is till intact. there are warning signs, though. >> yeah, look, we're getting -- we still have important earnings to come through. it's been a very good earnings season but we're starting to see some of those bellwether sectors fade certainly nasdaq is the weakest transports, or certainly i think in trouble i think you get to a place where bold bear confidence, if you measured it last week, at extreme highs, complacency runs extreme highs. the fact where the central banks are making a lot more noise. the move in the euro, to me, is not about what's going on in washington it's absolutely about what's going on with european economics and what's going on with their central bank you have to watch the central banks here and i think if the euro starts to get too strong, that also may be disruptive. i think we're at a place here where that's really the risks in
the market lie. >> the euro being strong, we're at levels not seen since 2015, right? that's a good thing for u.s. stocks, i would manaimagine, ta their cue from a weaker u.s. dollar. >> global growth is good, so many of our companies are clearly global companies it's also -- we saw in the banks today, saw the little bit of inflation in europe. i think that would be good for the banks. >> if the -- i'm sorry. >> go ahead. >> if the dollar is so weak, it really implies the u.s. economy has -- >> is it the dollar's weak or the euro's strong? >> my view all along is the central bank divergence trade, had the euro going through parity a few months ago, they really weren't that far apart. meanwhile the dollar price and the fed's move, rate hikes are probably priced in in the dolla 18 months ago. if you look at where we are right now, the u.s. economy needs the next upshift this is what we're all trying to, you know, dissect out of what's going on in washington. but i think if you look at the dollar, remember that the dollar
was not a headwind when it was trading at 101, 102, 103 for those company so i don't know how it's going to be a huge benefit, frankly, with the trading at 93 either. >> getting back to the perception, steve, that the white house is weak, do you think the trump agenda is more off track? >> i think the agenda -- they haven't got anything really done no new regulation. i think it's been enough up until now. they do need -- i don't know -- they didn't necessarily need health care. unless you wanted to make that a bigger punch with tax policy with tax cuts. >> uh-huh. >> i think at this point, you're going to have to market's holdie >> for me on what's going on in d.c., let's turn to a man who knows d.c. better than pretty much anyone. axios co-founder jim vandehei joins us on the fast line. jim, it's always great to speak with you. >> great to be here. >> what's your interpretation of what happened today? >> listen, i think it's certainly a good thing if you're looking at it through the market they have to restore discipline.
improvisational style of the trump show doesn't work. we say it on health care and the fact that they bring in general kelly, that's a pretty decisive decision. sort of a law and order type of person running this staff. oust somebody that president trump wanted in there shows that he has more command and control than what was anticipated. so long term if you're thinking about tax reform, they probably have a better chance of making republicans feel comfortable on capitol hill and getting the different parts of the white house to work together on tax reform with general kelly running the white house because it was so -- such a hot mess weren't on track tax reform is still a difficult one to do, but i think they're in a better position than they would have been a week ago long term -- >> right. >> -- the question is going to be, can anybody control donald trump? the answer throughout his wife, throughout his career, throughout the first six months is emphatically, no.
he's going to have to defy logic, defy gravity to fundamentally change the trajectory of this white house. >> do you think the perception is with that general kelly as chief of staff thoot that tax reform as a better chance or is it a reality that with general kelly in as chief of staff, tax reform has a better chance >> i'd worry more about reality, with reality -- >> is it the reality or is it just the perception he's going to be in there with a strong hand? >> listen, he has an exponentially stronger hand than reince priebus had because it was a weak one, they weren't functioning, weren't able to bring treasury, congress in the white house, to work with capitol hill to get anything done any other, i believe, gives you a better chance of getting legislation done and that is the biggest problem for donald trump and the republican party the economy looks great. the stuff that he points at looks good he's got nothing done. if they don't exit this year without something substantive --
they have to tax reform or tax cuts whatever reform it takes, that by far and away offers him the best chance and would have the biggest effect on the markets. so at the end of the year, and it's still a huge if, a huge if, at the end of the year, if you say midway through the year they restored order by bringing general kelly in to run the white house, and they got tax reform, you'd be looking at a much different president trump someone who's probably pretty darn popular and a pretty powerful position. again, a big >> jim, we're going to have to let you go the connection is a little iffy. we appreciate you phoning in always great to hear your analysis, jim vandehei, axios co-founder i mean, gary cohen came out today, said trump is committed to getting tax reform done by the end of the year, with general kelly in maybe that's more likely. >> not his 100% we're worried about. we're worried about the division in the republican party. >> this doesn't help, though. >> i wish i shared jim's optimism. >> other than clearing the slate, what does it do >> well, to the extent that some
of the theatrics going on have made some of the republicans really uncomfortable -- >> you think that's why -- some think the repeal and replace didn't go far enough some want to answer to their constituents i don't think it has anything to do with theatrics. >> priebus certainly had a fair amount of support within the rnc, obviously, right? so if you think about how people are very concerned about how he was being treated, whether that was right or wrong, to say that having -- speaking with one voice, staying within the family, showing law and order, i mean, this is exactly what the mo white house -- >> your original statement i think is accurate. he was popular amongst the republicans for obvious reasons. and he still could not corral even in early stages, couldn't corral anything. >> he didn't try to do anything. >> bannon tried to do something. they resented that that's the point so reince didn't do it and he had the relationship. >> this has to be a positive, though the inend of the day, what havee had so far >> it's not a negative, is it? >> i don't think it's a negative
this is just the state of affairs we've seen they haven't gotten anything other than no new regulation. >> what did you do today as we watched the market hit record highs? >> i referenced the warning signs. the warning signs to me, tim alluded to this withthe weakening dollar, strengthening euro, under pressure and there's no denying in my opinion the dax which led global markets for a long time is rolling over. the line in the sand of the tax is 12,000ish trading 12,100 now the transports which had a great bounce off the 160 level, iyt, almost round turned the whole thing. 165. those are the two things you have to quauch. >> i think a lot of this was overdone, though i think it gets to a place where i don't think we're breaking 93. i think we're range bound. if anything, the dollar is oversold here. if anything, i've been nibbling at transports. i'll continue to do that fedex do me, best of breed that company is not even close to broken. that's the one you buy on weakness i was buying airlines last week. doesn't feel so good but i leek
tho like those trades. i like owning stocks that have great multiples that told me great things about their business i stay in those trades. >> what did you do today, karen? >> i didn't do a lot i think if you went home long, same as if you bought everything you had sti sticking with the banks. one thing i did do, i was long some avis. we'll get to that later. >> grasso? >> i sold my hertz today we'll talk about that later. >> exactly quite a tease. coming up, in fact, hertz getting wrecked today after barclay said the stock is about to endure the perfect storm. we'll explain. plus tesla delivering its model 3 to its first customers over the weekend just how unique is that car? it may surprise you. a special "fast money" report. a top technician says watch out, tech is setting up for a double dip he will explain. much mor"ft ne sll ead.e asmoy"ti for your heart...
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available, snap shares hit an all-time low this morning, down 5%, later bouncing back and closing down 1%. the stock is still off about 50% from its high back in march just shortly after its ipo. it was early investors who could sell today including light speed venture partners neither of them would comment on whether or how much they sold. but the flood gates will open even more on august 14th, four days of snap's earnings. employees will be able to sell 782 million shares then at the end of august another 20 million shares will become available to sell according to jp morgan. so what happens now really hinges on what snap's insiders think about the company's future an analyst notes that, quote, roughly 60% of shares are held by snap's directors and officers including 50% held by snap's co-founders. for comparison, mark zuckerberg owned around 28% of facebook the time of its ipo, with more than 50% of voting power. and he said he wouldn't sell any shares for 12 months to dampen
lockup concerns. jack dorsey, twitter's chairman at the time of its ipo, owned just under 5% at the time. not including options. twitter shares dropped 18% on the day of a lockup -- its lockup expiration on may 2014, while facebook shares jumped 13% the day of its lockup expiration in november of 201 n 2 investors are going to turn their attention to earnings coming up a week from thursday the pressure is definitely on for snap to show user and engagement growth in the face of rival, facebook's, better than expected numbers which it reported just last week. melissa? >> all right, julia, just one clarification. 50% held by snap's co-founders so 50% of the initial amount of stock that unlocks today or 50% of all the stock or 50% of what? >> reporter: so of the amount -- that would be of all of the stock. and it's worth -- i'm sorry, that would be of the amount of stock that is unlocking at the next lockup expiration
so the thing is, no insiders can sell today only early investors the reason is because we have snap's earnings on the 10th. so on the 14th is when any employees or directors or executives of the company can sell and they have to have that period that they have to wait until after earnings so that's why those shares will become available to sell on the 14th. >> got it. all right, julia u thank you julia boorstin i think that's a very important distinction to make. that means 390 million shares -- i mean, if you take out the founder shares -- are eligible for lockup you'd assume the founders would probably hold on -- they're stickier holders of the stock than say your average run of the mill employee. >> yeah, you'd hope. >> you'd hope. >> the market internets that as a message they would sell even though there are reasons they could. interesting, i just inquired about how snap is trading, what happens with the lockup, do they feed them into the market? i don't know how much is there i was surprised to learn that
price of borrow did go down a little bit from 67% annualized to 59% but that is a gigantic number. it's expensive, sure. >> except for people are expecting this onslaught to be coming in the next few weeks also earnings, let's face it, august 10th is a big day this is a company with snap apps and snap ads they're not going o show up in second quarter numbers the second quarter numbers are going to show free cash flow burn, and for a stock that trades ten times revenue, that's not good. >> yeah. >> i agree with everything everybody said and we've been pretty consistent on the trajectory of this stock, made a 5 52-week low, all-time low. its short life is a publicly traded company there are four, five times of the short life you've seen significant percentage bounces to the upside. i mean, 20 to 24, 18 to 22 a couple other moves as well what's the point well, didn't trade horribly today given everything that was said traded about 50 million shares i think there's a chance you
could see the stock go from 13.5 to 17, 17.5, which percentage wise is a big move i understand most people aren't cute enough to trade around it but if you're looking for an opportunity, you might have gotten it today. >> you would hold it today knowing there's another -- >> i think the point the last three days the stock has -- >> sure. could very well be all right. now for a little buzzkill here, check out shares of hertz tanking more than 20% after barclays described a perfect storm for the stock. also weighing on shares, the company rescinded an offer to buy back debt. today's selloff aside, we should note the stock is up 50% from its june low barclays has a 9% target on hertz. >> it was up 110% from its june low. and those june lows for both avis and hertz were because of the waymo deal and apple deal so i think those -- you know, bringing back from the dead these two companies was huge for the upswing.
barclays' note, though, talks about carving a binary episode for me, isn't all stock binary episode, good news, higher stock price? >> not necessarily. >> big moves i read that as big moves one way or another when you're really levered -- >> so hertz was the beta play. i was long both. i still stayed long my avis. i know karen sold hers i believe this is a bigger story, i believe they're more fundamentally or financially better capital wise than hertz i'm staying long >> i thought the debt thing was actually more interesting and that they had this plan to buy back some debt and rescinded the plan very unclear why there may be some benign interpretations. there's also the interpretation we don't want any cash out the door, the banks don't want to allow them to refinance -- that, to me, or they have bad earnings coming out. >> right. >> those second and third scenarios are more likely and i think that -- if hertz announce bad earnings, it hurts avis
regardless. >> that's what you saw today, avis was down 5%, it was collateral damage. the original thing weighing on the two stocks were fleet prices and used car prices seems to have subsided. the fleet numbers -- >> rationalization is certainly a story to mitigate the risk in this i mean, for how long >> right. >> because, again, things got so bad in these secular trends, i don't think get any better. >> yeah. you sold out entirely? >> yep. >> avis? >> okay. co co coming up, oil cracking the key $50 a barrel level having its best month in more than a year there's even a better commodities buy right now. he will break that down. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc first in business worldwide. in the meantime, here's what else is coming up on "fast." tempted to buy apple ahead of tomorrow's earnings report? well, a top technician says there's something wrong in the charts he'll be here to explain. plus, reviews are in for the tesla 3 and they're amazing, but guy adami has devised the
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welcome back to "fast money. the dow, s&p and nasdaq sew seig their biggest monthly gains since february with the dow closing at another report high. tezsla shares tumbling after the model 3's debut. phil lebeau took the new model for a spin he'll tell us what killed the hype for investors. plus, oil c, copper and gol at a comeback. dennis garvin says it's rally and he'll be here to explain why. apple, 30% this year, what can we expect as the tech giant
reports earnings tomorrow after the bell let's get to josh lipton in san francisco with all the details. >> reporter: that's right, melissa, for q3, street going to look for eps, 1.57 on revenue, $44.9 billion. other key metrics investors are going to zero there on here, iphone units, average selling price and sales mix as well as gross margins. analysts say unless there's a real shocker in that report, investors are going to pay much closer attention to q4 guidance. what that possibly tells us about all those reports indicating that the new flagship phone will be delayed. not much concern right now about that as you point out, apple's already surged nearly 30% this year analysts don't think a shift in product by just a couple months is a serious worry but what if it does turn out to be longer? also, there will be a lot of thaengs attention on services expected to jump 18% year over yore to $7.1 billion apple has been launching a lot of original programming
including "carpool karaoke," debuts august 8th. finally, greater china revenue, suffered five straight quarters of declines. tim cook said in the last conference call the business was there improving. we're going to find out tomorrow if that trend continues. melissa, back to you. >> thanks so much, lojosh lipto. ahead of past iphone launches we've known the quarters just prior are a little bit tricky. >> challenging. >> people are holding off. they want that new phone they're not going to buy the 7 if the 8's around the corner. >> is a low iphone number good or bad >> exactly i don't know interesting dynamic tomorrow after the bell. >> i think if you have an expectation they're going to outperform in the third quarter, fiscal, i think you're actually misreading where we are. i think the expectation that the install base goes to something north of 775 million units as we get into the iphone 8, that's really what you should be playing for and as i've said, i don't really need to own apple until the fourth quarter i don't think there's much to do here i think the stock trades that way. >> gene munster was on a couple
weeks ago, overall very bullish on the stock but also said he wouldn't be surprised, we had the conversation, to see the stock trade back down to the mid 130s i'm probably paraphrasing. i agree with him then, i agree with him now there's a good chance we revisit the old high of may 2015 of 134 or so. >> i think it's going to be a little less bad than that. if you look at the chart on it, it's bouncing around around the 100 day. i think, let's say 145ish which is really tight here so, you ask, i'm long, and i'm staying long who's buying they're buying they have a massive company buyback. i think they're going to be there on any weakness, they'll be there i think you hold it or add on weakness. >> all right as tech continues to struggle following its huge runup this year, our next guest says apple earnings could cause a double dip. let's go off the charts with rich ross of evercorps isi >> look, it's about to get a little weird in technology and i think it starts with apple let's go to the chart. we might as well start at the
tom her top here clearly stock's up 28% year to date that's a fantastic run we haven't done much since april. up 2%. tech more broadly has continued to rally now you can see here, not only do we have a double top here, we have the potential for a lower high at an all-time high into this key resistance. i think we're staring down a test of the low end of the well defined trading range. 140, 142 on the low ends that coincides roughly be the 150 day moving average if you zoom out, maybe we get a little closer to guy's levels here now look the structure of the chart is fantastic we can see this big base of support that's formed over all these years. now that's fantastic here. once again, what we don't like to see is a double top, lower high here. that could set the stage for a pullback to that breakpoint. corresponds almost exactly with the 50-week moving average that comes in in those 130s. that's if things go horribly awry let's zoom out and look bigger picture. this is one of the things that
keeps you a little concerned about technology so we had this fantastic rally off of this moving average here, but importantly, on the breakout to a new high, not only do we fail there, we get a big bearish -- that's a classic bearish reversal into key resistance that once again sets up for a double top. go from the tech etf to amazon now post the earnings, it's sort of a bungle in the jungle. well, that's all right by me the stock's down 9%. i think we have another 4%, 5% downside at a minimum here once again, where that low end support, the horizontal chart support, coincides with the 100 day moving average so amazon for me goes lower alo along with tech more broadly now let's pull back again. semiconductors semis have silenced the critics like myself in here. i think we get a double dip in the chips. timmy, that's like putting your whole mouth in the bowl here just like apple, saw the lower high here. lower high in the semiconductors on that bounce so it was great that we did get
that bounce off the neckline of this very well-defined head and shoulders in here as we often see. but the failure here is very worrisome here some really troubling signs in technology vis-a-vis a rally which has been exhausted. some of those leaders, amazon coming off the highs, google coming off the highs and xlk semis and apple putting in lower highs into key resistance. that to me tells me once again it's going to get weird and go a little lower in the short to intermediate term for technology. >> i think rich ross has got to come over to explain himself. >> my man. >> how can he not? >> karen has a question to kick us off here. >> i have a more general question about charting. does it not matter what the earnings are >> it does not matter. the thinking behind technical analysis is that price is the final arbiter and all of you great smart people here that do all of this fundamental -- >> information. >> exactly that filters its way into price, itself in theory, the patterns will
repeat, they will not repeat exactly but will rhyme in the past in theory the stock should be telling us something clearly prices and charts are surprised and get big gaps up. analysts are surprised from time to time. to me, i really don't care what the numbers are. the market will tell me. it's not the news, itself, but the reaction to news which tells me aefeverything i need to know. >> the weakness and individual components of the xlk which leads you to believe there's a weak chart in xlk, amazon, apple, as well as semis, are th these weaknesses that indicate to you there's going to be a permanent reversal of the trends or temporary reversal of the trends >> it's a great question it's too premature i think we've seen classic signs of trend exhaustion into well defined prior existence. keep in mind, we're at all-time highs, transitioning into the worst two-month stretch for stocks not just in the u.s. but europe seasonality, technical headwinds we discussed and have great
earnings just behind us. so we've seen some sort of exhaustive moves not like facebook and netflix have been weak, it's just they've become exhausted at a time of year you don't want to become exhausted when cross comers are starting to take hold as you discussed earlier on the show. >> how much time do you spend looking at the passive angle to investing when apple is in 140-some-odd index funds when you see selloffs are shallower and less in duration than they once used to be, where you can't really look at technicals the same way that you once did this is hugging its 100th day, not hugging its 50 day these things would be hugging their 200 days. >> i agree you i think the increase in passive investing hasn't decreased the efficacy -- if anything -- it's easier to buy a group, buy a sector by pushing a button they're doing that, less work, less fundamental research. focusing on charts levels of support. there's a reason we get these strong bounces,st a reason why
we look at charts more broadly to your point, it's a great point, a lot of charts have the sameness it works great when things are going higher but can also work against you when things are going lower and things have the same look of sameness but in not such a great way. >> sort of back up rich's answer to karen, you can make a pretty good argument the amazon quarter was pretty solid, al fphabet quarter was pretty solid neither stock has bounced since. what rich is saying, sometimes earnings don't matter and price is the ultimate judge. i do think there's a real good chance we see the 134.5 level we saw may -- >> did you think jeff was a person growing up? >> i had no opinion. anyway >> who's jeff rotel? >> rich, thank you rich ross, evercore isi. still ahead, commodities king dennis garvin says there's a bull market out there that no one is stalking act rig inin ii, could make you a lot of money. plus, tesla 3, our very own
phil lebeau took one out or for spin, didn't you, phil >> it was impressive i'll tell you what it was like to be behind the wheel of a model 3 and rave reviews, a lt of them today, couldn't stop the shares of tesla from moving a little bit lower we'll explain why when "fast money" returns like the pizza-ordering fee and the dog-sitting fee... and the rummage through your closet fee. are those my heels? yeah! yeah, we're the same size...in shoes. with t-mobile taxes and fees are already included, so you get four lines of unlimited for just $40 bucks each. for a limited time save 300 dollars on the amazing iphone 7.
welcome back to "fast money. the first of tesla's model 3s getting delivered over the weekend. most buyers will have to wait a year before getting behind the wheel of elon musk's latest creation lucky for us, our own phil lebeau is ahead of the pack, able to take one out for a spin. ma did you think >> i liked it, melissa, not an expensive test drive but a bit of a test drive around the tesla plant in fremont, california it was impressive to say the least. great acceleration especially as you would expect from all the tesla electric cars with zero torque there you also have these models getting strong reviews, not just from me, but a number of other automotive journalists so you would think, fantastic, this is what you want when you roll out a car. but the questions are starting to mount about whether or not tesla can increase production as quickly as the company has targeted in fact, tony from bernstein out with a note today saying "ceo elon musk sounds increasingly squeamish about the production
ramp." this is what he's talking about, this is musk on friday night talking about the production increase >> how do we build a huge number of cars? the -- i mean, frankly, we're going to be in production hell welcome. welcome. welcome to production hell that's going to be where we are for at least six months, maybe longer >> production hell is what makes some people wonder if tesla can hit its target of building at least 500,000 vehicles next year melissa, i should point out, we'll be hearing more from elon musk no doubt talking about where things stand on the production side when they report earnings on wednesday afternoon. we should also point out that elon musk has talked about this for months that this ramp-up in production was going to be extremely challenging. so, it's hard to tell whether or not people are reading a little bit too much into this comments from friday night. >> i feel better about him saying it's going to be hell as
opposed to no problem, smooth sailing ahead. phil, thank you. phil lebeau in chicago. >> you bet. >> that looked like a pretty nice car to phil's point, right? i mean -- >> which one >> the model 3 >> the model 3 does look like a nice car. you know what it looks like to me, though >> what? >> looks like a husband dmazda. looks just like the mazda. mirror images of each other. >> what's wrong with the mazda >> that's the point. nothing wrong with the mazda you know what i did? i went out to times square, asked people if they know the difference between the new model 3 and the aforementioned mazda that tim seymour likes take a look. which one is the mazda and which one is the tesla >> huh, it's hard to tell. >> i believe the blue is the mazda. >> that one, the mazda >> i think the red one is the mazda. >> i believe this is the mazda >> the red is the mazda and the blue is the tesla? >> yes. >> you're correct. you know what you win?
>> what do i win? a new car? >> that would have been great, wouldn't it? which one would you buy? >> the red one. >> that one. >> i'll go with blue i love blue. >> when you're out cruising looking for ladies, which car are you driving? >> i'm driving a mazda >> would you buy a tesla >> if i had the money, why not >> i kind of like it it's small seems very girly seems chic yeah. >> chic. i like that. say hi to elon musk. he's watching. >> hi. >> so out of all of those you spoke to in times square, how many got it right. >> hundreds of people we spoke through. all day long we parsed through some of the tape to get this footage, best of the bunch i think three people got it right. i was out there with nancy, our floor director, i had to ask several different times, which is the tesla >> this might be a compliment to mazda. they're both -- >> how much is a mazda
>> not as much as a tesla. you're not going to get an electric vehicle with that so, you know, you're getting a car that's basically an entry -- >> what's the point? it doesn't look any different? that it's not as cool as people say? the styling of the tesla -- >> you're paying for the technology. >> you're paying for the technology, right? >> i mean, look, i don't think you're supposed to get worked up about this, all due respect to guy out there. >> fact-finding mission. >> very interesting. what's most important is these guys have 500,000-plus preorders and the demand looks like it's there. that's what we were questioning. >> yeah. >> why do we even care about this as an auto company? it gets back to, if we really care about the delivery of this car, really care about this model 3, this stock should be trading at half the valuation that it is that's my view. >> i agree never worried about this before and all of a sudden we're starting to focus on stuff that we haven't focused on before >> we've never focused on -- >> deliveries. >> productions deliveries we've always focused on production we've always focused on production >> because they moved the shell game we talk about it as a computer
or technology company versus a car company. if you're going to evaluate it as a car company, it should be much less than it is now. >> isn't there a parallel to other companies where we focus on the immediate metrics like a google, for instance, but believe in a long-term story that goes beyond search? >> twhaactually, no. >> amazon is another one, right? you focus on the immediate metrics in which the stock has moved. we saw that with the most recent earnings but we believe or many people believe who are investors in the story that it is a bigger story in the long run. isn't that like tesla? >> i think it's a lot like tesla. how do you trade the stocks in earnings this coming wednesday that's the question everybody wants to know. obviously have no idea what they're going to report. i do think there's a chance you could revisit the 285 level that we saw 2014, 2015, those were the old previous highs this stock is down 17% give or take off the all-time high a couple months ago. i think if it gets down there, buy it with both hands. still ahead, commodity is gone copper, oil, gold surging in the
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after a pretty volatile year for the group. crude oil, copper, oil, all seeing gains this month. crude and copper up 7% gold is up 3%. our next guest says the rally is just getting started joining us now, commodities king, himself, dennis gartman of the world renowned gartman letter dennis, good to see you. >> always good to be seen. >> what convinces you this is an actual bull market or rally in commodities? >> i think this is actually the second year or so of a bull market in commodities and nobody is paying attention to this fact 23 y if you take a look at what's gone on in the commodity markets, grains started making new lows crude oil has begun to move higher the term structures have begun to tighten you can go to copper it stopped making new lows it's beginning to break down trends nobody's paying attention. all we talk about now is deflation, but it appears to me if you look at the broad indices of the crp index, for example, it made its low 2 1/2 years ago,
has not even come close to making a new low since something's going on in the commodity markets that no one is paying attention to. and we need to begin paying attention. i like the gold market i like the copper market i even like the grain market something's happening there. it is not deflation any longer it is an inflation and it's quietly going on. >> would we be talking about this potential bull market in commodities ifthe dollar weren't this weak? >> i think you would the dollar has only been weak against the euro for the past month and a half or two months this was starting quite some period of time ago, even as the dollar was getting stronger, even as the dollar was rising against the yen, even as the dollar was rising against the euro this began two years ago and the fact that the dollar has gotten a little bit weaker and, indeed, it has gone from 105 versve versus the yeeuro to 115.
>> dennis gartman of the world renowned gartman letter. this must be music to your ears, steve, been waiting on -- >> xles. the barometer formal oil is the $50 price mark so you really have to pay attention to that. i'm not sure we can get substantively higher because massive amount of production comes on the market above 50 so if we don't break above 51.5, let's call it, we made a series of lower highs dating back from february but i do believe the xle could still move higher. >> are you a buyer of this notion of the commodities bull market >> yes, i am and i think as dennis -- this has been going on for 18 months. in fact, we've been in an inflation trade cycle. copper's break-out to me is the most interesting because i think copper is the most balanced in terms of fundamentals and also where you had to see some supply coming offline from the chinese to break off from 2.75 a pound copper up 13 of 17 days and going higher and i think there's a lot of -- look at the industrial metals, nickel at recent highs, palladium.
copper to me is the most interest that is dr. copper the real economy we haven't gotten into fiscal trades that's really important. freemort freepart fr freeport is a name i'm long. a couple other miners. a lot of exposure to the gagags. i think that's going higher. >> integrateds have been tough to own for most of this year, quite frankly. exxonmobil reported last week, made a 52-week low 78.25, give or take. did it on two times normal value. so if we're all on accord that energy prices are going higher here and you think that might have been sort of the capitulation bottom for the short term, at least, i think risk/reward in exxon sets up the best it has in quite some time. gold miners up this year but some traders are betting the run is done. mike joining us to break it all down. >> earlier today unlike other areas of commodities you guys
were talking about, we saw unusual put activity earlier today, we were seeing two times the number of puts, trading in the gold miners etf and where they were putting that focus and attention was on the september 20.5 puts over 14,000 of those traded for 16 cents hedges to the downside after they had a little bit of a run to tim's point, the bullish bets were being made in bhp and rio tinto. >> thanks for that, mike for more options action, check out the full show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. coming up next, we've got the final trade. stay tuned i'm here at the td ameritrade trader offices. steve, other than making me move stuff, what are you working on? let me show you. okay. our thinkorswim trading platform aggregates all the options data you need in one place and lets you visualize that information for any options series. okay, cool. hang on a second. you can even see the anticipated range of a stock expecting earnings. impressive... what's up, tim. see options data like never before.
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prevagen. the name to remember. the shares of the dominant domino's pizza took a 10% tumble following earnings last week a cause for concern or perfect time to buy a slice of the pie i'm sitting down with the ceo tonight to find out. "mad money" is next. time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim seymour? >> you want to play the great aussie dollar, you're getting commodities exposure fxa. the etf could play that. >> chairwoman. >> event stock, rent a center. engaged capital activist who has members on the board and says the company is not exploring alternatives which they agreed to do. i think we'll see a deal eventually. >> steve grasso. >> if this rotation continues, you want to see exit out of f.a.n.g. and into energy stocks, financials, go with the xle, energy etf, xle. >> rich ross gave you a
jethro's -- tim knew obviously >> that was the reference. >> anyway, do you have a trade, guy? >> i do. i think snap is destined for nail year. i think in the short we'temple we' term we'll see a significant bounce. ielsa lee.ching "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. it's really hard to stay positive about this market in the face of conventional wisdom