tv Fast Money CNBC October 2, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
i think more bank-like oversight, at least on that piece of it really would be -- i think we also need to empower consumers, too i think they did take a big step in the right direction by announcing this credit lock and encouraging the other two do do it as well this is nod a credit freeze, it's a credit lock you have your credit report locked up. they can still sell your data for marketing purposes, so maybe we need to figure that out, too, but that's a good step in the right direction. >> thank you, sheila that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. >> i am brian sullivan in tonight for melissa lee. tragedy on the strip 58 people killed more than 500 injured after the deadliest mass shooting in history. more questions remain than answers. we'll have details from the ground as they develop. the market remain bullish on
america and perhaps on american resilience manufacturing coming in very strong pushing stocking to new highs, that is where we begin tonight. october historically one of the worst months of the year, but you wouldn't know it today the dow 5ding another 152 points tonight. it also closed at the highs of the days day, which could be a technical sign the blue chip index kept good compute. all joining the dow at new record highs, it was a very broadbased rally as well all posting gains, but as markets climb, so do many investor questions, but how much more may actually be left in a nearly nine-year bull run. >> those questioning have been around i have asked them seemingly for the last couple years. those questions continue to be unanswerable i tell you, i continue to think we have taken a lot of our cues
from europe. i say that because we emarked 12,000 as a huge line in the sand see where the dax traded down to, and what it's done, and now it makes sense that equities are rallying what still works look what citi bachg has done, the stock is up 20% very quietly, financials still work, you mentioned industrials, honeywell one of the great companies here in the united states along with the s&p making an all-time high so in my opinion they still work. >> i agree, the defense stocks will continue to work. i look at consumer staples, i totally stay away from the biotech names, even though they're up 40%, there's still a lot of room to the up side if you look at a long-term chart, we're just getting to his turkey levels as far as highs, so i think there's room to go, especially when you have a generalist investor getting back into this trade.
i would still with that and the financials the financials are a play. >> why not the staples >> i think they're just out of favor. when you look at a market, that's an area that you say far and clear from. >> the reflation trades continue to work. oil -- stable oil prices, i think you can buy the banks, definitely -- look at gm, and now gm is a name with a massive, massive run, about you here's a case where you look at certain parse gm is not expensive. it's only getting i mojo here, in my view >> i would say a stand outwhen f.a.n.g. really consulted. i know the stop is up almost 12% in a straight line over the last month or so. these are some stocks that you, a, want to see consolidate a bit, especially as we head into
earnings, when you look at an oracle, they have an analyst meeting on thursday, cisco is a stock that actually had a negative reaction when it last reported all these three stocks have something in common. they've underperformed a lot of their mega-cap peers, we now some of them are up 30-plus percent over the year. they may be interesting on catalyst, interesting because the dollar, which is up a bit, i know in the last month, that sort of thing, so to me that may be an area that investors start to focus. >> you think the interest is for real and longlasting >> i think it's healthy. at any point this year you could have said the outperformance has been eye-popping, and maybe for good reason. when you see -- listen, you guys have all been right. the xlf finally broke out, and you're seeing rotation into
these areas that are working i think it's healthy it's not like apple hag fallen out of bed, so to me you want to see them consolidate, and then q3 earnings. >> i agree, i don't think money is leaving fang in a fierce week, if you say -- fang may on a relative basis yunld perform, but the fact is it will do relatively well. there's no reason to put off foot off the gas to your point, intel, look at the money that's been allocated. the chart is straight up they talked about something different. they talked about -- there's been speculation about breaking the company up into two pieces and benefiting from that a.i. machine learning sort of equation es on are a higher multiple given the fact that that could occur. >> the path of least resistance is certainly away.
google has had headwinds but netflix to me is i think starting to show there isn't that big of a moat around this company the u.s. is joining the rergs of the world you want to go for the stuff in industrial land and inflation land. >> obviously with the news of last night and today there's a lot of bigger picture issue that we have to discuss, so guy adami, that isn number did get lost in the headlines, but we can't overstate how strong that manufacturing number was >> definitely a leading indicator, something i think he's been on for some time one of the reasons why these many industrial names have been rallying one of the reasons why they will continue to rally.
if it is a leading indicator, i think it augers well you can sort of cast aspersions on some of these names in terms of valuation honeywell, defense stocks, lockheed martin, boeing is rich, for example, but for me the tailwinds seem to be unabate d the s&p was down like 20 biopsy. here we are now, a week later, and a lot has happened. >> so when you talk about it, is valuation the thing? is that why they sold off snow i don't believe so, but i think tim's point is important, and it's important, as we head goo q3 earnings, potentially regulation with facebook, google, amazon spending, the
reaction to earnings and guidance over the next few weeks is going to be important, of whether they continue to close out the year strong. >> do you think that from a market's perspective, that pullback, and i acknowledge it as well. is bat for the market? >> absolutely not. >> it's bad if they literally start to decline and then we don't see these other sectors that's been a rotation, if they pause and start going the other way. >> we haven't had a sell-off of 3% this entire year. >> revenue growth, if you look at it historically, there's an article out today discussing it, bears can offers you have seen a it's been financial engineering, we're starting to see guidance come out on guidance that's much higher >> have we overstated the important of the fang stocks to this market? the best is facebook, it's 17th
this year in the nasdaq 100. mer cato libre, paypal. >> i don't put paypal in there. >> would you put wynn in there as a momentum stock. >> they're higher growth i will say earnings season is crucial it changed everybody's expectations of s&p. and i think that's an important part. >> i'm not saying the argument can be made -- you've seen sales growth lagging and now we're seeing expectations ratchet up for the third quarter. i look at that and say that shows you the economy is picking up steam or continuing to pick up steam >> let's take more about this rally that seemingly just won't quit and bring in brian belski one of the biggest bulls out
there, getting more bullish, now believes the s&p 500 could reach 2800 by the end of the year. that is another 10%. here's the question, brian welcome, by the way. >> thanks for having us. >> out of 11 groups, only two are down this year telecom and energy of the big ones do you believe, a, energy hast turn around to get to your argument, and b, do you believe it will turn around? >> i'll do b first, because i'm polish, do we do things backyards. no, i don't think we need energy to turn around i think we just need energy to be a bit better. we put in a tactical trade about a month ago to say it was time to buy energy. i think the theme no energy is embrace the range. many of us forgot they had a super-sighle between 1982 and 2002 a lot of the companies did great in terms of earnings and cash
flow we don't need oil prices to go up or down so many people, all they remember is moddie super cycles, death to america, you bike stock, because interest rates are low. energy can perform nicely, it doesn't need to be an overwaiting. >> mohr directly, brian, can we get to 2800 if stock s don't participate? >> yes we still think the majority of our clients around the world are massively underweight financials you saw in a stock like wells fargo do awesome some accepted people are still bitter about what happened, and we think the majority of investors are way underexposed, about you we just published a note saying september in the third quarter was all about financials and energy getting going again i think the market will do well
with those two ectors, but it' about a return to value investing. value investing is the mo intrinsic value of all we talked a lot about the beginning of this segment that's true i think it's still a sense where most investors believe that they're chasing the same stocks we're not believing as a marketplace an increasing amount of companies show above-market growth that's a value market. we've got slow to think about that and actually believe it. >> i'll play devil's advocate just to do it. does xlp, the consumer staples have rolled over effectively since may. >> you and i have been in the business along the same time. >> 30, 40 years. >> right yeah. >> combined. >> no. so back in the late '80s, early '90s, campbell's soup.
general mills, heinz and -- when is the last time you had campbell's soup. >> you would be shocked. >> when was the last time you touched your cell phone. consumer staples in general are a sector has lost without leadership reached a tough year it's a sector that's hard to be overweight it doesn't surprise me we have seen the type of negative -- >> brian belski, a 2800 new start on the s&p 500 brian, good to see you. >> thanks, by the way, go twins tomorrow against the yankees the last time i put a hat on was september 30th of 2003, i co-hosted "squawk box," and the twins beat the yankees that day. >> i'll say this, i'm no yankees fan, but one game doth not a trend make >> when somebody says dime after -- do you have a dime so i
can call someone who cares. >> showing your age now that you're references dimes and payphones. >> doing what i can. >> seem op still uses a pager. thank you very much. guys, what did you buy today? >> biotech to me and david, i'll mention it again biotech is breaking out gilead's acquisition, the announce metropolitan unlocked a lot of potential deals going forward. i think people are figuring it out. >> i sold nike i had been there since the last gad, and it just acts like death. i think the reaction to guidance was -- disney bought it after that earnings gap back in august it kind of found a floor in the mid to high 90s. >> i actually sold intel today just because of the spike. i think it pulls back a bit, and added some bank position also i6789 bbs
let's talk about retail next block. i sold some hall i burton which has been rocking thank you very much, guys. stocks did shake off today's tragedy, as we mentioned we're following the latest from las vegas where last night a gunman killed 58 people, injured more than 500 others new details are unfolding every hour still ahead, though, we'll go back to the markets nordstrom until pressure the deal to go private might -- but you just heard tim seymour talk about retail. he's staying long and strong on one name and later on, general motors shares also at record highs following another upgrade from wall street. what has analysts and investors so excited over gm we'll let you know, next i can't wait for her to have that college experience that i had.
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mohawk indian tribe. >> this time coming from senator clair mccaskill. this was a deal that raised a lot of eyebrows at the time. it's really interesting. allergan is facing chance from generic drug makers, and a relatively newer system called, ipr challenges, of course gained attend a couple years when the investor used the system to challenge the patents. it turns out native-american tribes has sovereignty over the patents. in return, allergan is paying the tribe $123.75 million up front, potential $15 million after that in royalty. allergan says it doesn't affect the patents in the federal court system the ceo said this arrange was to
skimpily avoid double jeopardy now we have learned that senator mccass kiss has wrote a letter, saying this is one of the most brazen and absurd loopholes i have seen. given the recent comment, pharma can and should play a role in telling its members that this action is appropriate, and though the stock price -- calling it creative, the stock has since declined guys, we have reached out to allergan and pharma on this. >> meg, thank you very much. anybody with a perspective >> yeah, you step up and buy aggressively here. it's a ridiculous to have this stock trading this low it's a sentiment shift generally you're talking about brent saunders as one of the most creative and innovative ceos in the country. universities have been hiding behind this for years. >> i love you, i love you, but why? i didn't hear a reason why to
buy the stock. >> it's creative. >> i don't care about the ceo -- >> here's the thing, you have every analyst saying it's creative. >> give me a reason why you're buying the stock. >> they want a podium to stand on, what, drug pricing issues? or anything that has to do about the big bad pharma it's insane. this is a company generating significant revenue. he's being realtyive in protecting the patent instead you have a political interest that's ratcheting down and hurting this company, in my opinion. >> i sort of -- i still didn't hear a single reason why our viewers should go buy allergan, when the whole space acts well. >> a perfect example this stock was up initially when it was announced why? because it was a creative innovative way to look at it
the reason it's down is they have their sights on allergan in a way that's disruptive. so, therefore, people stay away. the investors walk away. >> but his question is, what is it is drives for. >> restasis is an amazing drug the fact is, is that patent in jeopardy in fact, the higher courts will make a determination from a generic perspective. allergan is smart enough and will defend themselves wheel heartedly. the fact is the way it was structured,ed reason why he structured this, home run, kudos for her for doing it the fact this country has decided to take a negative stance on biotechnology names like this, it's crap defending allergan. still ahead, crude oil knocked back another 2% today, about energy stocks may be telling a different story. a top technician will explained
>> in fact the clark county commissioners is using the number 60s mgm says it's cancelling all of its shows and other shows have been canceled. that's the mandalay bay behind me it seems as if you look add a video of the crime scene, we get new information every hour about the shooter stephen pad dock "new york times" said he had 19 weapons in his room, two on tripods, and nbc news is reporting his father in the '60s was a serial bank robber on the fbi's most wanted list people here who have survived are trying to get back to the scene to get their stuff, including daniel rosales who was working the show last night. you get a sense -- as soon as he hit the ground with his wife he started facebook live you could hear gunfire go on and
on, then a short break, and gunfire on and on. here is a short snippet of what he told me. >> it seemed like it went on forever. i'm toil shaky. >> what do you have left over there? >> our vehicles, we lost a love the stuff. personal items that we don't really need. we want our vehicle. >> we're being shot at we're being shot at. oh, my god c'mon. [ gunfire >> one person went down and i told my wife, just run, just run as fast as you can, go >> reporter: how far did you run? >> we ran all the way to the mgm, and my wife was picking up
people who were shot on the way. >>f. >> reporter: they're reporting it took 72 minutes from the first 911 call for police break into the room. the gunman was dead. it wasn't clear how long he had been dead. >> you obviously met that gentleman with quite the story to tell. are people still around? is it almost as if they're hanging around the area, they're not leaving? they want to talk with other survivors. it seems like there are many people still in the area for one reason or another. >> reporter: look, las vegas, there are people who paid to be here this week, they are still here there are other events going on. i haven't seen a huge exodus, the flight i have on was packed for people who i don't think know what happened here on the southern end you don't get a lot of traffic, but people are trying to filter back
up to the scene, and they do want to talk about it, as often people want to after things like this. for more on who this might mean, harry curtis, managing director and senior analyst of gaming lodging and leer yurt harry, a difficult day, but we are cnbc, which we're going to talk about it from the business angle. what do you think might be the longer term impact from the business side of what happened last night >> we've looked at it today from both the long term and shorter-term perspective the long-term perspective, if history repeats itself, and you go back to a shooting in a casino in manila, the orlando incident, paris, in each of those instances, those cities recovered. we expect the same for las vegas.
>> yeah, and particularly mgm, which is the owner of the mandalay bay, along with other properties i read some comment that the management is on top of this, and there's not a great anticipation evident a longer impact americans are resilient, very brave and we 2e7bd to go back to trying to live our lives after way too many of these types of incident over the last 10, 20 years. would you expect the same in las vegas? >> absolutely. the neat we wrote to our client base, the title was "expect resilience" and we expect it with not only mgm, but if this incident were to impact new york, boston or some other place, for example, that hotels were dominant in, i would think we would get the same response.
>> sir, what do you think is the cost to the business model for these guys from a security perspective, and kind of put it in margening terms >> it's really near term they will have to deal with cancellations, refunds i would expect their security costs to go up, but i don't expect them longer term to see incremental costs more than maybe 50 basis points in las vegas. >> my quick question is -- well, i don't even know what my question is. it's hard to enunciate on a day like today, but let's ask about the casino stocks specifically are they getting expensive here? i know we've got golden week coming up, but are these stocks expensive? >> i think you have to separate them by the mix of their business the mix of business for the
casino companies weighted towards macau, they are certainly weighted at the high end, which is why we haven't been recommending those two, but if you consider mg movement, roughly 20% comes from macamaca, and it's forward multiwall is one of the cheapest in the industry if you look at mgm as a pullet pal of free cash flow, which is really how you ought too look at these stocks, mgn is close to ten types nest year's cash flow. historic loy that's when investors begin to step in >> harry, we appreciate you taking the time. >> thank you. >> look at wynn, las vegas sands over the last basically year, and you'll see they performe quite well
i do think there's runway left i think 14th straight month of gains. so as we go into golden week, i think there's room for the up side. >> harry just said look at the guys who are leveraged in macau. we had steve wynn back in may, and he sounded about optimisting as he has in a long time soo that's pretty interesting, going back to what you say, sully, we fully expect americans tore resilient. >> just a quick note there's a big hedge fund event called traders for a cause our own jon najarian is and i asked him if he's going to change his plans >> hell no we're going to do it still ahead, energy stocks
have been on a tear up about 10%, but carter wirth says the rallies have the markings of a bull trap. plus a taking of two ought ooh stocks, what's behind the move we'll ha ave special auto report after "fast money" rolls on. ♪ top speed fifty knots life on the caribbean seas ♪ ♪ it's a champagne and models potpourri ♪ ♪ on my yacht made of cuban mahogany, ♪ ♪ gany, gany, gany, gany ♪ watch this don't get mad (bell mnemonic) get e*trade and get invested
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energy stocks are hanging on, at least today bob pisani is at the new york stock exchange with more bob? >> had ello, brian good to see you. the worst part of the day was at the open when big oil names all of them down 2% to 3%, but immediately, and i mean within two minutes of the open, everything turned around the the oil names all turned around. so what happened the big momentum behind these names, so september pulled off the biggest rally of the year with oil stocks. the xli was up 10% on hopes the
supply/demand equation was up. rising almost 10% in september several factors were cited for the 2% drop in oil today, including the dollar iraq announced that exports rose in september, and reuters -- thatsh mostly because of higher supplies from iraq and from libya. one other potential factor here, will las vegas shooting it may make some reticent, but make it's all good news, when you get near $60, the shell guys all start coming out big time, and then we have problems with cutbacks in products. >> bob pisani, thank you your next guest says do not trust in energy bounce carter, hi. >> hi.
all year long we've had bounces, this has been the most aggressive, but nothing has changed in terms of strut structure of the charts. what i have is data going back 209 inception of is the current sector construct and the bottom is relative performance to the s&p, the key is, of course, even as we were making new highs from '07 to highs at 11, you're underperforming the market so any gains, there are gains coming at the cost of having missed something else. you can look at the lines like this, and this is fairly clear what would otherwise be known as a double top in energy even as energy was going up, shares with the underperformance was striking that happened against in 16, best performing sector, but
nothing has changed the overall construct, that this is a broken area of the market i think the most recent rally is one, better than most, of a lot that we are seen this year what about the russell 23000 let's look at the chart of the energy index here's the spread of energy relative to the overall russell 3,000. the thought is, i see this too, and i want to play for convergence, yet the truth is it's a trap. it's been a trap, and i think it will continue to be a trap here is the russell 3000 again, 1.6 trillion if you simply draw the lines, we literally touch to the penny this down trend line what's happened at least at this point so far, we have failed at
this line. i don't see what there is to say other than that, or said differently. i'd rather way for that. this is somebody that hand outperform in the best part of ten-plus years carter worth, thank you very much motorsy on over to the desk. guys, views on what he's talking about. >> i think there's some religion being had. there are -- i think they're -- after detroiting they did a make buyback. also to what carter set, on the mean reversion trades, ultimately that's what we're seeing i think you're seeing
emerging markets i think you can see it in energy >> without on check back or do you think -- >> well, again, what's the checkback, but the trend that i care more about. >> if you talk about valero, and all the banks have gone out recently the stocks have moved in reaction to it but, again, trade the range here, we are at the top end. maybe fang at a cheaper price, or just finding -- that has robots that's doing well
it's a difficult thing >> the xle, the s&p, was down over 1%. a broader aggregate versus the -- and i think the burden remain -- the bear has to -- just had a good one, but does it really go higher from here >> that's a good question. >> again that wall of worry. >> i think people are in they believe it's cheap. >> we have been here this movie is on about it's eighth act >> carter, thank you very much
hedge funds bouncing back, seeing their best performance relative to the market in seven years. we'll tell you what stock specifically was keeping them afloat tesla releasing their numbers. shares a bit under pressure. we'll talk more about what may drive tesla ahead, stick around. what powers the digital world. communication.
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glee welcome back. tesla releasing its third quarter numbers. phil lebeau has more. >> the focus will be on the model 3. when you look at the overall deliveries, a little over 26,000, the majority of those being the model s and the model x. the model 3, 220 delivered in the third quarter. most analysts were saying it should by at least 5, 6, 6700 with 1500 in production. when you look at what's going on, keep in mind this is the very beginning, tesla alluded to those problems says there were production bottlenecks model 3 production was less than anticipated due to production bottlenext tesla had been guiding the
street they ended up is getting a lot of attention today, general motors, it broke through the ipo high, post-ipo high. which had been -- now it's -- and today the company was saying it was ramping up its electric vehicles include two brand-new electric vehicles by the next -- over the next 18 months here's the reason why, guys. take a look at the biggest market for electric vehicles it's china that's not just this year, but for the foreseeable future who is the number one automaker or a close number two? general motors wisely saying we're going to ramp up production finally take a look at shares
before late tomorrow afternoon, by new ceo jim hackett tomorrow afternoon. a lot of people want to know how much detail will be there. phil lebeau, thank you very much tesla, your take >> it's a technology company the investors invested in technology look at gm, i want to see execution. obviously i want to see them, a lot of this is not just defense mode and before i jump in, and it's trading at 6 1/2 times its numbers. >> you're chasing a stock.
bottom line is -- you're right, i agree people are calling it a tech play. and bottom line is gm is global motors and what they're doing in china are extraordinary. north american pickups and the robbo-taxi markets they're very well positioned at a multiple that's silly cheap. >> silly cheap tim, thank you very much speaking of general motors general motors revs up a bit, more pain ahead. so dan, gm good? ford bad >> the ford trade i saw today wauchbt particularly that much more pain ahead. call volume was five times that of put today
and then they sold 14,000 an in december 13 calls at nine cents to open. i expect that's an override. if the stock is at 13 or lower, that trader takes in 126,000 in premium against the long stock position two charts real quickly. the five-year has been a train wreck. it just peaked up. and then the interesting five year gm versus ford. they've been kind of tracking, then you see the break so that's an interesting juxtaposition. >> thank you for bringing us that you can check out the full show every friday at 5:30 p.m many edge funds making that you are comback. we'll tell you what the smart moan is really betting on when "fast money" runs. returns. well, it's earnings season once again. >>yeah.
lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too. wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.
it's cheap and gets you all the big games. it starts at sixty bucks a month, but jumps to over 100 after 3 months. cool i think? and jumps again to over 150 after a year. noooo... and ends up costing over 3500 bucks over 2 years. you're cleaning that up. don't get caught off guard by directv. touchdown. get the best with xfinity. welcome back to "fast money. hedge funds making a comeback, seeing some of the best performance relative to the market leslie picker is here to break it down. >> they were left for dead the last few years, now things start to be looking bers for the hedge fund industry. some statistics i want to show you guys, first of all, record assets in the industry $3.1 trillion. they also saw inflows of $39
billion through all. you may say, well, that's still trailing the s&p 500, including dividends, but at least trending in the right direction a lot of analysts say the causation is based on equity dispersion, the fact we're seeing eps gains actually reflected to become much more of a stock picker's matter al taba, that's the alibaba spin-off, and herbalife up 40%, that's one stock where big ackman has been
off of the -- that one is down about 25% over the last 12 months act visit really underformed the strategies and it's up 3.1% for the year, but still underperforming. >> too me there's no question that it's going to be passive. a miracle run for the s&p, because the conditions are right. >> leslie, thank you. up next, your final trades
we have a question about your brokerage fees. fees? what did you have in mind? i don't know. $4.95 per trade? uhhh and i was wondering if your brokerage offers some sort of guarantee? guarantee? where we can get our fees and commissions back if we're not happy. so can you offer me what schwab is offering? what's with all the questions? ask your broker if they're offering $4.95 online equity trades and a satisfaction guarantee. if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab. ♪ can i kick it?
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i think gdi -- >> really interesting company. everybody, thank you very much catch "fast money" again tomorrow night at 5:00 p.m. eastern time "mad money" will begin on a y tugult monday onouhohts and my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always more work and i promise to help you find "mad money" starts now >> hay i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money," other people want to make friends i'm trying to save you money call me at 1800734 cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer we live in sadly cynical times here