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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 12, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

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they have lost some ground on the headline, although any gain in the major indices today would be another record high on a day when mcdonald's, cat and boeing are doing it again. >> you got that levitation in the afternoon to records. >> we'll see if that repeats today. don't forget summers with sara at the imf let's get over to judge and the half and welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner our top trade this hour, retail wreck. that sector getting slammed yet again today, now on track for its worst week since january and why some say the worst may be far from over. we do want to start today with that rough day for retail stocks, the worst day since august pete, i quote the great philosopher, mr. t i pity the fool who tries to pick a bottom in these stocks. >> right. >> it's a fool's game.
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>> yeah. the only exposure i have at this point in time is home depot and they're the one that has battled them really well when you look at the growth they have done online but those that are competing and can go after amazon, because that is the big elephant we talk about it all the time, you look around out there, those that are competing well against them, those stocks are doing pretty well. look at walmart, look at home depot. costco to some degree. >> i'm beginning to tihink when do look out on that landscape, you say maybe there's five names before i don't know the thumb goes away, this finger goes away, two or three maybe. that's what it seems like. >> it's how quick those have reacted and those who have prepared for some of what's going on in terms of the online competition world. those that have done that, i still put best buy in that category as well best buy has beat amazon at their own game walmart is doing a great job of competing aggressively when you look at what walmart has done in the last couple of
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sessions, not just a buyback, it's about what they have done previous to that, how they have competed online and trying to make it more streamlined for the customer. >> so, joe, sears is getting hammered today ulta is getting hammered today williams-sonoma cut to a sell. j. jill lowers its guidance. under armour price target cut. walmart and even though goldman stays uy, they take it off the conviction buy >> but let's -- >> there's like shade being thrown all over the place. >> let's take walmart and put it to the side. let's not put walmart in the conversation of the companies that you mentioned. >> i hear you. but look at what we just showed on the wall. >> here's the scary part of all of this. they had a bounce in august into september, a lot of these names, and everyone believed the bounce i think as you approach the end of the year, you have to give consideration to tax loss selling. the fundamental story here, nothing about it has changed for any of them. my biggest concern is what the
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problem and the contagion going to be in the debt markets as it relates to the retail space. if you're talking about a pvh, that's great but for the rest of these names, a couple of them wind up on the pink sheets. >> joe just hit on a lot of important points obviously i know a little bit about this sector. i'm having a fine year the debt is where we should be looking and that's where you're going to find the winners and the losers josh, i see you shaking your head. >> i've got to say that's where the opportunity is >> both on the short and the long side. take a look at sears, i think you just mentioned it. one-year debt for sears now trades at 17%. if would trade a heck of a lot higher if you didn't have eddie lampert lending more and more money there. you can find other portions of the debt market where there are clear winners. but the key element here is that the brick and mortar retail industry is still too large. >> i totally disagree with you
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toys r us -- excuse me, now let me talk. i'm shaking my head because we just walked two weeks ago toys r us bonds completely complacent -- >> that's a very unique situation. >> with all due respect -- with all due respect, the bond market is -- the corporate bond market is asleep. the spread between -- the spread between treasuries and corporate bonds right now makes no sense outside of the context of global central banks supporting credits that quite frankly should not be trading where they are, certainly should not be as tight as they are. and i'm going to tell you something. it is not so simple as, oh, they just have to invest in digital, they'll be fine. macy's is the poster child for a company pouring its heart and soul into digital and it didn't help the stock is down by two-thirds, has lost more than half of the company's value in like 18 months the xrt, the retail space, is
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giving you no reason to look at it at all. >> down 5% week to date. >> scott, scott, it double topped 2014. it's been in a down trend for three years. i don't understand why people are bludgeoning themselves with these names. none of them are showing any intention to get off the mat i think there are going to be a whole hell of a lot less companies. >> that's my point. >> why would you want to invest in this phase of that? >> look, it's arguable -- you can say that it's early, but you also know that the xrt rallies in november. you know that. it rallies into black friday >> i'm going to try to make 4% >> what if i asked you -- what if i flipped that and said maybe it's not early you could make the argument that it's too late in many respects to get out of some of these names without just taking serious pain. >> i think you could make that point. and joe actually made that with tax loss selling which unfortunately for this group will pile on here. >> by the way, i looked at your
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favorite stock in this space >> what that be? >> j.c. penny is under $4 today. >> at ten bucks you were saying j.c. penney is fine. >> first off, let's make this a little bigger. everybody has a portfolio. i have a toehold in retail this is 3% of my portfolio i'm have a fabulous year we talked about other stocks on this show that are doing well. >> we're happy for you why the hell then are you still holding this stock >> because frankly i think it's undervalued. i think it's one of the ones that's going to be a survivor here look, i look at the debt i told you one-year sears debt is 17% three-year debt for j.c. penney is 6.6%. josh, you make the argument and i'll grant you this is a discussion to be had, that the bond market might be asleep. i don't think you can draw that conclusion from one data point being toys r us.
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>> what did the bond market tell you about j.c. penney a year ago, two years ago -- i'm not saying you're not going to make money with the stock how can we say that that's a useful signal given how asleep this market has been to all of these retail names until the very last minute >> the discussion that most of us are having on this space is one of are there bankruptcies coming this is clearly a speculative -- >> i'll help you yes. >> this is a speculative space and you've got to pay attention to the bond market. >> when we had matt boss on the other day from jpmorgan who was once again named the number one analyst in the space, here's what he said about the very issue that we're discussing now. >> there will be continued disruption, continued store closures and continued bankruptcy that's where on the off price side, i think they're the biggest beneficiaries over the next couple years. >> so this guy as well -- >> yeah. >> a very well respected voice
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in the space says there is going to be more bankruptcies. >> i don't think any of us are denying that what i'm saying is you can start to weed out the winners from the losers by looking in the debt market that's really what i've been saying this whole time. >> i'll tell you another thing i think these people sitting in the shopping mall are sniffing glue if they think, oh, it's a great yield. these malls are literally propping up stores themselves in order to not have empty space at this point you take a look at what went on with the bankruptcy of aeropastle you now have 500 stores or whatever being operated by the mall owners who formed a consortium and went in and said we will run these stores so i don't know if you like having your clothing designed by a reet but that's what's going on >> this is a mall store, the stock is down 50% today.
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>> we talked about that when it initially came out and all of us collectively said that's a name you want to avoid. >> but that's not a j. jill story. it's part of what's happening inside the mall. >> it's part of a bigger story but you're talking about a company that's relatively new and interesting a category space that right now really as everyone is saying needs consolidation, not new stores. so i think -- look, look at the generals of what retail were, the apparel names. look at l. brands. these were the names that two or three years ago we were all talking about. >> two or three years ago? you've been talking about l. brands this year this year. >> i've been talking about it. i haven't owned it and i like the company. this is a company i like >> you asked matt boss -- >> yes. >> -- a question about it. >> i like the catalogs the. >> you do have a good memory selectively. >> scott showed up today to beat us all up. >> i didn't say i bought it, i
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said i would like to buy it. i would like to see the turn-around story. what i'm saying is it's evidence of the entire retail sector right now, to josh's point and pete's point and maybe a little bit to jimmy's point, i just think you're looking at a scenario where such massive contraction is needed and you could use the term apocalyptic and i do think it's going to hit the debt market. >> let's bring another voice into the conversation. dana telsey joins us live from new york city. dana, it's good to see you again. >> thank you for having me nice to see you. >> i don't know how to sugar coat this conversation, i really don't. if you look at the way these stocks are trading, i'm looking at your coverage list. i'm just going to ask you straight up, dillard's is a hold the target is 55, the stock is trading at 51. j.c. penney is a hold. the target is 5, the stock is under $3.40. macy's is a hold at 25 the stock is trading at 20
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nordstrom is a hold at 50. the stock is trading at 42 why? >> i think overall when i look at some of these names out there, i heard the dialogue that you were all talking about before i agree, we're going to see more contraction. the areas of weakness of department stores and apparel, it's not all retail that's weak, it's those particular areas. when i think about the names, we came through a second quarter where these stocks had a rally and then all of a sudden we have a ton of negative news that are coming out these stocks are underowned and so they're getting hurt more on the downside now but we're going to continue to see transformative change in the group. and i agree, it is not over yet. >> i know. but why aren't these sells why aren't you telling people to run for the hills? get out of these names and get into other areas that you like >> some of the interesting things with these names, the balance sheets of some of these companies happen to be very good i think when you look at the same-store sales, the expectations are so low right now that any little pop like what you saw out of the second quarter, these stocks don't just
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straight in 3% increments, they trade much higher than that. there's also more change that can be coming. you know about the nordstrom go private transaction and yes, we know it hasn't happened yet but there's potentially more of that that could happen. something like dillard's has been buying in stock for years there's more to do look at kohl's who's continuing to buy in stock. >> dana, when you think about -- i was talking about mall traffic before and justthe fact that - so let's take the malls that would be owned by simon property group. they quadruple the amount of space for restaurants and food they revamp the movie theaters they're trying to draw people in with things that are not just, hey, we have a gap and a banana republic, which sounds great and i think to some extent it works. however, you're pulling dollars away that would be used for apparel, that would be used in a department store into the revamped food court or into the
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ninth restaurant they have opened up. so, yeah, you could boost mall traffic, but it has not helped these companies that are on your list what will help -- what can they do at this point >> i think some of the things in the department stores overall, if you look at the department stores in europe, they're more than just apparel. and what's happened is that women used to buy apparel for four reasons work, weekend, gym and party and today you only have two reaches to buy apparel given the more casual society that we're in it's about work, weekend and gym as one collective and then party. so whether it's putting in restaurants or putting in other categories, whether it's hard goods like consumer electronics, whether it's gym equipment, you name it, but it's got to be other things than just apparel and you know, we may see the shrinkage of some of these department store boxes also and fewer department stores in each center maybe one or two instead of four and i think that's the future. >> dana, we've heard one of our investors on the show today make the case that if you look at the
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debt market, it perhaps tells a better story than what the equity market is telling you about some of these names. do you buy that argument >> i think you have to look name by name. i don't think you can say it's broad strokes because i even think some of the names that have been debt-laden, there's concerns about them. look at the concerns about neem an ma neiman marcus. >> let's go macy's what about the debt-to-equity story there? >> i think overall on macy's, it's going to continue to be a little bit of a real estate story today. the benefits and changes that they have happening. but new loyalty and marketing program, that's a third and fourth quarter thing to see. certainly the valuation is cheap relative to the level of sales that they have i think their debt is okay >> what about j.c. penney? we're trying to help jim and save him from the apocalypse is there time? >> is this an intervention >> i think there may be a little bit of time but it's very
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narrow you need to see that gross margin improve. >> that's true. >> you need to see that gross margin up. >> can they do that? >> let's see the third and the fourth quarter it's a work in progress. we're having coming out the third quarter so far, it's a hit-and-miss third quarter. >> what happens if suppliers stop shipping them product, dana >> i haven't heard anything like that yet. >> it's not going to happen. it's a good question to ask because that's where the death spiral starts. >> we're not there you're just not there. >> no. >> dana, let me ask you something. management at j.c. penney, i see what's going on there and to josh's point about experiences, they're moving out the salon style, the sephora, all of these things and getting no credit for it do you lay that at management's feet >> i think overall they also put in appliances. i think they probably thought that there wouldn't be as many sears stores now so they can get those shares i think having sephora is a big
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benefit to j.c. penney if they didn't, we'd be seeing sales per square foot that were a lot lower. >> dana, appreciate you coming on we always appreciate your candor. >> thank you for having me. let's turn to the banks quickly. citigroup, the shares lower despite the beat jpmorgan -- >> down early on jpmorgan and it rallied back up and was in positive territory citi hid new highs when you look across what their beats were, scott, they were year-over-year beats they continue to show us that they are able to navigate a very difficult market, because we know how tough trading is. we look at the bond world and all of that has been very difficult but they made up for it on other ends, whether you're talking about jpmorgan or citi, they were very, very similar in terms of what their quarter looked like. if we see any change in this volatility that has been extremely low, we've only had two closes above 10 in the
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volatility index so far in october. i mean the volatility is gone. volumes are very, very light, so that combination from the trading perspective is exactly what hurt these and i think people are taking profits today. i don't think necessarily people are coming in saying, oh, these are a sell i think guys are taking money off the table and that's going to create an opportunity. >> i asked you yesterday how high the bar had to be for this to not happen. >> yeah. >> did these, even though they were pretty good -- >> they were more than pretty good. >> did they meet those expectations >> they meet, beat and absolutely were excellent. i think because of the 10% run end of this, there were some that said i'm going to take my chips off the tail this is a pause for the financials. >> citi was talked about sort of the best in class. the stock has done the best in big banks this year. >> i think there's a little bit of short termism here and i think it relates to the trading book everyone is focusing on the fact that the bond trading for citi was so poor.
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i think we're completely ignoring what some really relevant, positive fundamentals offer this everyone keeps talking about selling regional banks good luck selling regional banks when you see the commercial loans look as strong as they did. the retail bank is better than the investment bank right now. net interest margins were the highest they were since 2013 at 2.37 so the true fundamental story of what a bank should be is evident. this is really, as pete is point out, about trading and good luck predicting when volumes and volatility will rise once again. let's remember, these banks don't participate proprietarily in the trading as they did ten years ago. they're much smaller. >> is citi best in show? >> no, jpmorgan is. >> but citi has more upside. >> citi was trading at the biggest discount to tangible book value jpmorgan probably is the biggest premium. i think that premium has been worth paying for investors
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that's why i stay in that name i think if we do get into some kind of a storm in coming years, which would be likely, just economically i always feel like jpmorgan is going to be the one that weather it best so i prefer that and i would call that best in class. >> being long bank in america, i think this buffers any kind of blow that they may receive when their earnings come out. okay, we know trading is going to stink. >> just keep an eye out for credit card losses it's not that these banks are underwriting poorly, but the number of frauds that are going up is really quite prolific. take a look at credit card reserves as you go forward. >> morgan brennan has a market flash for us. >> let's talk about o.j. right now. the usda releasing its first report on the florida citrus production, estimates for the 2017-2018 season this is the first report since hurricane irma swept through the state of florida and did extensive damage to the citrus crop last month.
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the florida orange crop will be the smallest since 1947. huge losses. this of course due to that hurricane irma, as i mentioned, but florida's agriculture department just earlier this week had estimated the yield would actually be even lower the lowest since 1942. so presumably this forecast, really rough not quite as bad as anticipated and that is the reason the november contract for o.j. futures are trading lower right now. they're down about 2%. keep in mind we have seen this contract move. it's up about 15% over the past two months and at cnbc reported last night, some experts are still warning that fresh o.j. prices at supermarkets are expected to climb. back over to you. we are just getting started on "the halftime report. here's what else is coming up. our call of the day. one tech stock that surged more than 130% this year. oppenheimer is initiating its coverage with a buy. we'll debate it. plus josh brown is keeping it real. he admits it might be a little
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crazy. why one type of investing might not be your best approach. and a first on cnbc interview with former treasury secretary larry summers. heat's all straight ahead. "t halftime report" with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes i can't wait for her to have that college experience that i had. the classes, the friends, the independence. and since we planned for it, that student debt is the one experience, i'm glad she'll miss when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant.
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ameriprise
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we're back on "halftime. take a look at shares of square
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today, up 3% the mobile payment company initiated at buy at oppenheimer, we've made it our call of the day. what do we think here? >> i think it's a good call. john najarian has been talking about this stock since '11 or '12. it's grabbing market share you go to any small business where i got this wonderful haircut the other day, square. that's what it's all about right now. small business don't you laugh. >> don't let him off the hook. if i said that, you'd spend five minutes on it. >> you know, it's about all the verticals as well. that's what this analyst is talking about today and that's why the price target is where it is there are verticals in the lending side of this there are so many different areas and they have executed with efficiency and that's what they're talking about in this call today. >> sometimes you can make a joke without saying anything at all he mentioned the haircut. >> i think josh went to the same place. >> do you have a thought on
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twitter? >> josh has been point this out with visa and mastercard if you can be an intermediary and not have to put up capital in global consumer demand, that is a great place to be and square is there. >> how about twitter today it's up 4%. >> rumors, man. >> rumors? >> rumors, rumors, rumors. huge call buying right out of the gate they were buying calls that expire tomorrow. is this a one-day thing? there hasn't been people talking about it we know what some of the rumors have been out there but i think this is more about rumors than anything else in terms of twitter. >> i think on an earlier show there was a good point that maybe some funds that were -- are big in facebook just given the risks, the political noise and narrative around facebook, that maybe some people -- >> twitter has the same risks. twitter has the same risks their management also are talking to congressional investigators. google as well i don't know that twitter has less risk than facebook.
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it just has less usage compared to what went on with facebook. and facebook gets a lot more attention. twitter is getting into this gap here, it looks interesting you've got this consistent pattern of higher lows, going back to, let's say, april and may. it's kind of been trending up but very slowly, very quietly. this could be a gap fill up to about 20 that's where resistance should be so if you're the kind of person looking to play this thing for a point and a half, be my guest. it's hard for me to see it getting way beyond there and i'm somebody who owns the stock. it's failed there so many times, i would have to have much more convincing price action to feel like the worst is over. >> from a fundamental point of view, you need to see user growth we've been stuck at 330 and you're not going to. somebody is going to buy this? i guess verizon bought aol and there is a market for things that aren't growing that rapidly but i don't think this move is supported by the fundamentals unless somebody knows users are growing, which i don't see. up next, the first cnbc
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interview with larry summers he talks the economy, president trump's tax plan, so much more. plus pete najarian tracking unusual activity in the options market we'll get his latest play coming up. first, though, take a look at the s&p sectors on the move today. s&p is flat. there are real estate stocks leading the way toy. alftime report" back after this i think it's terrific.
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your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and?
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>>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.
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the cnbc iq 100 index, beating the broader market over one year up 25%. today's leaders include dxc technology, amd, agilent, northrop grum an and raytheon. pete najarian tracking the options market. >> yesterday we were talking about intel. how many days have we talked about micron, intel, anything in the chip space take a look at applied
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materials. look at that chart, is that a beautiful thing? i know josh is mr. chart i'm not a big chart guy but i love when i see a chart that looks like this. today they bought the october 55 calls. it was trading right around 53.30, somewhere in that range, scott. huge call buying it was 11,000 and it's exceeded even that level. we've seen this before this is a name that's continually been moving to the upside some chips may be pulling back here and there tell you what, this chip maker, these guys are absolutely exploding. i love these calls i'll be in there for probably at least a week. >> let's go to sue herera now. sue has the latest headlines for us >> i do, scott we'll focus on california. here's what's happening at this hour california is still burning. pictures taken from the sky overnight in napa valley show the relentless wildfires are not slowing down, and the forecast unfortunately is getting worse the area is expecting gusting winds of up to 45 miles per hour
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and continued dry air, which officials warn could cause some of the 22 fires currently burning to merge cal fire officials say over 115,000 acres have burned. that is an area two and a half times the size of washington, d.c. these fire storms are on their way to being california's deadliest so far, killing at least 23 people. they are also some of the most destructive, burning 3500 homes across the northern part of the state. these pictures are from sonoma county, and they show the charred remains of entire neighborhoods covered in ash and aband abandoned. the two largest fires have left businesses burned to the ground. according to a list compiled by the "san jose mercury news," 13 wineries have been at least partially destroyed and it will be a big economihic t to that part of the state. "the halftime report" is back in a moment plan who are these people?
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the energy conscious people among us say small actions can add up to something... humongous. a little thing here. a little thing there. starts to feel like a badge maybe millions can wear. who are all these caretakers, advocates too? turns out, it's californians it's me and it's you. don't stop now, it's easy to add to the routine. join energy upgrade california and do your thing. . welcome back sara eisen live in washington now with the outspoken former treasury secretary, larry summers. it's an interview you'll see first on cnbc. sara, i'll send it over to you >> all right, scott, thank you very much. here at the peterson institute,
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treasury secretary -- former treasury secretary larry summers. nice to see you as always. >> good to be with you, sara. >> scott used the word outspoken. you have been very outspoken lately on the administration and its policies why? even trash talking it sometimes. >> i think we've seen an unprecedented level of factual error and statements that aren't supported by any economic analysis from the administration on a range of questions. in particular the claims that it will produce enough growth to pay for itself in terms of the tax reform bill, and the flames that it will be distributionly neutral and won't favor those with high incomes i think are indefensible and not supported by economists. i've never thought that my
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predecessors like hank paulson nick brady or john snow, who were republicans, i never felt like they were making false statements i never spoke this way about the proposals of the bush administration but i do think that there's some real sacrifices of seriousness and credibility in the policy process in the way that tax change is being advocated. if someone wants to make a case that, yes, it will cost the government money but it's worth it because of some benefits and, yes, it's a policy that favors high-income people, i don't agree with that case but that's what reasonable political argument is about. but the argument that they are making is a dishonest argument. >> what about this new claim, and this comes from kevin hasett that it will boost the average
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family income 4,000 to cut the corporate rate, move to a territorial system with repatriation. >> ludicrous we had a big change on repatriation in 2003 to 2005 a huge amount of money came home and it all went into share repurchases and dividends. as has been pointed out, there may be changes in the location of corporate profits, but if they change the transfer pricing rules and people use accounting in a different way, we may get some extra corporate revenue booked here, but that won't translate into more jobs. >> wages >> or higher wages if we're simply booking more income here. look, sara, the cost of capital, which is after all what taxes -- how taxes influence investment, is lower than at any point in the last 40 years. and even with that low cost of
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capital, we already have substantial first-year write-off of investment. and we are having all of this -- all of these regulatory changes for better or for worse. so the idea that somehow some lack of incentive is what's causing corporations not to invest, by the way, corporate profits, they're -- after tax, they're at record highs. so the idea that this is going to produce a $4,000 increase in wages, i think it's an absurdity. >> i think my colleague, scott wapner, actually has a question for you back in studio. >> mr. secretary, i wanted to pick up on this very issue on october 8th you tweeted, and i quote, there is little doubt among serious economists that immediate impact of corporate tax cuts would be to help corporations and corporate shareholders jamie dimon today on the jpmorgan earnings call said he would boost jobs and wages much
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more than he otherwise would with corporate tax cuts. are you saying that he's lying i mean i don't understand why such an adversarial relationship with corporate america and shareholders of stocks when people like jamie dimon himself say that corporate tax cuts would lead to more jobs and higher wages >> jamie's my friend i do not mean at all to be attacking him personally here would be the question that i would ask, and let's just do the calculation. you can get your researchers to do it for your viewers if the corporate tax rate were cut from 35% to 20%. that's about a 15% tax cut 15% rate tax cut jpmorgan's profits are about $25 billion a year 15% of $25 billion is $3.75
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billion. how many people will jamie dimon increase his payroll by? will it be any substantial fraction of $3.75 billion? if jamie dimon is prepared to say that he will commit that if there's a tax cut he will increase his payroll by anything like $3.5 billion, i will consider revising my views but the fact that he says he'll hire -- he'll hire some more people, that's not enough to convince me. >> why does it have to be just jamie dimon, the individual? maybe mr. dimon is speaking for the greater corporate community? >> maybe he is, maybe he is. >> i think he is. >> absolutely, absolutely. >> i think you can make the case that he is. >> scott, scott, let's be
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serious here you're the one who introduced jamie dimon -- >> as a representation. >> and jamie dimon hiring as evidence in this calculation if somebody would like to present a calculation suggesting that if we give up a trillion dollars of tax revenue to corporations in corporate tax cutting that will produce a trillion dollars additional payroll and say where those jobs are going to come from, that would be a very important and useful analysis. there are a lot of economists who study these questions over a very long time, and that has not in general been their conclusion certainly the stock market, which responds very sensitively, seems to have the view that the beneficiary is going to be corporate shareholders if you just look at how the stock market moves on corporate tax reform news. so you've got the stock market
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on one side, you've got most of the economic studies who have looked at this on the same side, and you have a certain number of people who will be the beneficiaries of the tax cut making nonquantitative statements, asserting that they'll hire people without describing any plan on the other. so at that -- in the face of that evidence, i'll stick with my view. maybe there will be some other evidence that's presented, but it's going to take more than ceo assertion to move my view. >> well, gary cohn actually said that that would even benefit the worker as well with the rising stock market because it would help their 401(k)s and their pension funds. do you buy that argument at least? >> well, what gary cohn actually talked about was firemen and policemen's pensions and that was actually a poor example for him to choose because almost all of those pensions are defined
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benefit pension plan so it helps the people who have the liability, not the people who are going to receive the benefit who aren't tied to the stock market yeah, it will help those -- it will help people with 401 wu1(k but people look at actual data and what the actual data shows is that the very large majority of all the stock holding is institutions like harvard and the like, and people who are in the top 1% of the income distribution so it will go very disproportionately to those. look, when the tax policy center, when the congressional budget office, with all of these groups do distributional analyses, they are very much aware of the distribution of stock holding and that's reflected in their calculations. look, sara, this is the first administration we have had, i mean i've been watching this stuff for 40 years this is the first administration that believes that if you're
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rich and you make an assertion, that constitutes a fact. and in the past, we've had -- >> people who are actually in business, have been in the market, have been on the front lines. >> in the past, in republican administrations and in democratic administrations, in the reagan administration, we had the treasury, the civil service made an estimate of the score. they made an estimate of the distributional impact, the congressional budget office did that all i'm asking is that we use the same discipline that we always have rather than move back to the world of assertion and it's analysis versus they claim that is my problem. >> so we're out of time. yes or no, are you taking the bet, larry lindsay says 30 grand to make sure the economy is
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better under trump than obama, inequality dlieeclines and inco rise. >> i'll keep track of this forecast and i'll certainly be the first to recognize if i'm wrong, if we pass this tax cut, which i don't think will happen, and it is shown to have increased the economy substantially. then i will have been wrong. but i wouldn't wait up >> i'm sure we'll talk to you before then. it sounds like maybe you're willing to put your money where your mouth is. larry summers, thank you. >> good to be with you. >> scott, back over to you larry summers, former treasury secretary, white house advisor and economist. >> all right, sara, thanks so much our thanks to the former secretary as well. brian sullivan now has a look at what's coming up on "power." coming up on "power lunch," larry versus larry you just heard from larry summers, skeptical any tax cut will help. on "power lunch" we're speaking with larry lindsay
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he wants to bet $30,000 it will create economic growth tech under fire, facebook on the hill talking to lawmakers about russia-linked ads during the election but big tech be getting for a big wave of new regulation. and it's mink walls and an ice chamber. no, that is not pete najarian's vacation home. this is an $5 18million mega mansion in the swiss alps. "the halftime report" is back right after this "volatile markets." something we all think about as we head into retirement. it's why brighthouse financial is committed to help protect what you've earned and ensure it lasts. introducing shield annuities, a line of products that allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities. while maintaining a level of protection in down markets. so you can head into retirement with confidence.
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welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm morgan brennan more potential bad news for equifax. the company firming that it has taken one of its customer help web pages offline as its security team pages offline as the team looks into at potential cyber breach. the spokesperson saying we're aware of the situation identified on equifax.com website. our i.t. and security teams are looking into this matter and that a bun dance of caution have taken this page offer line this coming after independent security analyst are trying to trick visitors into installing adobe update this coming with malware it's affected the data of 145
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million u.s. consumers equifax equifax shares are down 3.5% on this latest report back over to you paging senator warren. paging senator warren. it's matter of time before he gets on that >> this is a stock that bounced off of 90. very, very strong bounce beyond even v shape. got up to 115. now it's rolling over again. i don't think it holds 90 this time there's no shorts in this stock at least as of the last data i saw. less than 3% shortage. i don't get it does no one think this is going to be potentially problem for this company going forward i kind of do >> all right we have more now with futures now. >> good afternoon to you wti crude oil falling over 2% at one point today. jeff, what's the biggest driver of today's weakness in crude >> we're seeing a lot of
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fluctuations due to crude inventories. we saw a draw down that kind of trimmed loss earlier. overnight we saw the international agency talking about a swelling of supplies that was the 2% drop right now we are discovering the low. 50% has been support ifr specifically as opec and non-opec members are beating those numbers. that should be supportive of the crude oil market what are you seeing? >> we've been in a pretty decent up trend if we settled before, let's call it 49. i'd start to question it right now i think we're going higher the fundamental argument is what jeff said about opec job owning they expect demand to increase they will keep going with this talk >> all right joining us today on futures now is former u.s. representative ron paul he's going to lay out what could lead to the next stock market
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with day one target date funds from prudential. look forward to your 401k plan. we're back we have trader tracker and some new buys >> a couple of trades here i've added to existing positions in google and qualcomm i think it's going high r and it will be led by tech. google is a great way to play that it's responded positively. the second one is qualcomm it's been a storied stock. they will eventually settle this suit with apple.
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it's priced in they will lose everything i don't think that's the case. these guys will compromise and that will pop the stock. if i'm early on this i was a 4.4% dividend yield to keep me cozy while i wait. >> hedge funds will move to quantitative models. screens incredibly well. revenue excelling 30%. expanding into africa. the moment is there as well. >> let's do final trades >> talking about how bad everything is. i see a name that's getting dragged down lululemon. that growth is incredible. the stock will go higher >> apple was down about 9% from its high it's not only building a base but starting to bounce off of that i think it will continue higher from here. >> josh. >> put up a chart of google when
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you get chance in is a stock that's about to make a major break out. getting above resistance that dates back april i think it will be big >> joseph. >> red hat breaking out as well. >> good stuff. power lunch starts right now here is what's on the menu will president trump's tax reform plan give the economy a major shot in the arm? two former white house economi advisors face off. another larry is making a big bet against him. we'll explain. big tech under fire. facebook in d.c. getting grilled from lawmakers and the company's role in russia linked propaganda ads. will it keep the regulation push at bay investors taking a bite out of dominos this stock is getting slammed. what's worrying wall street? hold the

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