tv Closing Bell CNBC October 13, 2017 3:00pm-5:00pm EDT
i think it goes until january. the price per ticket is something like about 8 bitcoin no, about 1,000 bucks. if you have bitcoin, maybe you'd do best. >> recipe for success on broadway thanks so much for watching "power lunch." >> you know what starts right now? >> what, tyler >> "closing bell" starts right now. have a great weekend, everybody. see you monday hi, everybody, yes, welcome to "the closing bell," i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> i'm mike santoli in for bill griffeth good to finish up the week with you. >> full-ing on two hours. >> lots of energy. >> double my usual work. >> now that we have new berg, him and new -- anyway. he's going to -- >> i think he'll remind you who he is later. wells fargo, today, getting hit on concerns over lope growan grn
costs. john shrewsberry jiwill join ust discuss the lasting impact of fake accounts scandal. we've been following the scathing critique of bridgewater and ray dalio written in the newsletter last week jim will join us in an exculusie interview. some of it may strurprise you. we begin with iran today the president just announcing new sanctions will be put in place against the country and decertifying the iran deal after his speech, he took questions from the press, when asked why he didn't just end the deal now, he said this >> we'll see what happens over the next short period of time. and i can do that instantaneously. i like a two-step process much better >> what impact could the uncertainty over the iran deal have on energy joining us to talk about that now, andy liphow, and benjamin
sal salesbury. good to see you both benjamin, just talk at the outset whether this actually does change anything with regard to policy implications, about supply and demand for energy, iran exports, anything like thereat dothat down the road. >> the immediate impact on oil, oil exports is very limited. there's not going to be any steps directly taken from this to go back to the old sanctions regime what we think is important is this tool they're using is designed to escalate the president made it very clear he want to escalate the pressure on iran so sometime middle of next year you could see the deal start to deteriorate then have meaningful impact on oil supplies right when the market is tightening. >> andy, we look at the oil price today, wti, benchmark is just over $51, brent is just over $57 what do you think the impact of these moves will be there? >> well, i think your other guest is correct in the near term, there's not much of an impact to the oil market but it does introduce a degree of geopolitical risk and
uncertainty going forward that could increase oil prices. clearly, iran is still exporting about 2.3 million barrels a day and the world simply can't afford to see that loss supply because we can't make it up from the other opec and non-opec producers. >> benjamin, you know, there was so many years when we mostly felt there was some kind of a geopolitical premium in the crude price globally, perhaps doesn't seem that way right now. i'm curious of your estimation if we see, you know, wti trading where it does, brent crude a few dollars higher, does that incorporate anything in the way of possible disruptions or is that just a pure, you know, clearing price based on supply and demand and expectations of opec discipline? >> so this is the fundamental issue that i think investors need to start taking seriously we've had essentially no risk premium because of the shale supply, and the scaleability of that supply, and more importantly, the bulging crude oil stockpiles that can basically meet any shortfall so there's been no geopolitical
risk situation we're facing is at some point next year, we're going to have to start pricing in geopolitical risk adds ts th mashlt co market comes into balance, we work toward the five-year stockpiles and we start to stress the shale resources and cut billions and billions in global cap-x a situation now where you probably don't need to see a risk premium today i really worry oil investors are going to start to get complacent because the last several years and end up in a situation where you have a geopolitical situation that needs to be taken seriously and people have gotten used to letting them pass. >> i want to go back to what you said about the world not being able to put the barrels of oil in that iran may be taking out i mean, are you saying we no longer have the oil glut we've been dealing with for the last several years going back to the u.s. fracking boom/revolution? >> yeah, i think the oil glut has been getting smaller and smaller as we moved ahead. we had both t, increasing their
demand forecast. you see oil inventories that we talked several months ago about in floating storage. they all been liquidated we're seeing oil come out of inventory in storage in places like south africa and the caribbean. last place we have an excess supply of oil is actually in the u.s. and you saw a weak ago we exported record amounts of that oil and that trend is going to continue for the rest of this year >> is, andy, real quick before we go, is there any chance the demand side of it starts to drop we're going to talk about this later. there are people saying the switch to electric vehicles say we're not going to demand as much crude going forward. >> well, i think that's a possibility but it's several years away if you look at the number of automobiles that are still powered by gasoline that are being sold in china and india, i expect world oil demand for the next five years is going to continue to rise. >> all right. >>benjamin, sorry, quickly? >> with had a report out this
week emphasizing demand growth is probably underestimated and will grow faster, not slower, than con ssensus expectations. that's part of the risk. >> all right benjamin, andy, thanks very much for your time today. >> thank you. let's move on to our "closing bell exchange." president of global trends investors, and next to him, peter costa, president of empire executions and rim santelli is over at the cme. peter, i want to start with you because another bear today, tom lee, kind of capitulated and raised his price target on the s&p 500. and finally now thinks that maybe 2,556, where we are, is closer to a possibility for the end of the year. on he was at 2,275. what about you, you waved the white flag yet >> i've waved the white flag let's put it out there. >> is you're going to scare the bulls. >> i absolutely waved the white flag
i cannot see -- i don't believe the market should be here but that's just me but what you're seeing, you're continuing to see inflows into etfs, this is -- they're not price denominated. it's just getting the etfs in there, in their portfolios and just continues you know, the only thing i worry about is some major geopolitical risk, not the iran deal. i do think if there is any major conflagration in north korea, south korea, i think that's the only thing that can derail the markets seriously. i think we might have a couple of pullbacks but the pullbacks never seem to be very deep so, you know, it's -- i hate to say it, but the white flag is up >> peter, i mean, tom, excuse me, peter tried to kind of scapegoat your world there, the etfs for keeping this market at these levels what are you seeing in terms of demand flows from etfs what kinds of sectors are people going into, what does that tell you, i think, about the market position right now >> yeah, well, you got to agree
with peter, large caps are pretty lofty at this point however, in in the last month, we've seen more money come into small caps for the first time in a couple years so that's encouraging. the other thing from the valuation standpoint, boy, you got to look overseas developed markets. especially europe. and most importantly emerging markets. it's been so unloved for an extended period of time. and as we talk about opportunities, not just traditional indexes, but new smart beta indexes that can take advantage of certain factors like momentum. power shares has a great emerging market. momentum etf that's performing almost 50% better than the strategic traditional indices ain the emerging market space. we are seeing flows as peter said but some are starting to move over into other areas that are a lot more favorable from a valuation standpoint >> let's talk about the underlying fundamentals for a second rick, it was interesting this morning, the core cpi number, the inflation number was weak
again. i think six months out of seven now. the interesting was the street's response to. interesting was the street's response where you see we got this called a goldilocks on steroids because you have low inflation, strong growth, strong stock markets. you have what's his face, zurvos, saying thing e ing aggr surprise curve is shifting out says an unwind of secular stagnation is upon us. on this quote/unquote global goldly lo lilock goldilocks what do you make of it all >> reporter: i keep it simple. group of multinationals who don't like a strong dollar the dollar hasn't been strong. they're going to like it contrary to many, emerging markets may have cut back on how many securities they issue in dollars to their own currency. of course, that's less risky if the dollar gets very strong. but as judy shelton, dr. judy shelton's wonderful op-ped in
the "journal" pointed out yesterday, there's still a very large a. mount of emerging markt that issued security in dollar term all of that eases back these are all little positives for the stock market which was doing quite positively well on its own without them then add in that interest rates are aren't near 2%. that makes some nervous. but it also is still down on the year from 244. we failed a week ago so all those things, in my opinion, are going to make the channel even deeper and wider for stocks to continue to do what they do how the year finishes out, hey, there's a couple of really big central bank meetings coming up and of course a couple employment reports where we could really see if earnings are going to pick up and could see cleaner inflation numbers that may not be distorted by some of the energy price movement that we saw after the hurricanes. >> rick, i'm curious what you make of this idea, actually, this concept that the secular stagnation of the past decade is over and people are lciting the president, citing the regulatory pullback they're saying the supply curve in the u.s. economy is shifting out and that's why we have no
inflation even as growth is picking up. >> reporter: listen, i think there's huge positives, a huge part of the reason in november that the markets did what they did is because of less regulation but in terms of the kind of issues that you're pointing to, i think the jury's still out, personally i think we're going to have to wait and see i think a lot of the legislation, particularly tax policy, everybody's trying to handicap it. i had kevin o'leary on all trying to decide do they want big cap, small cap, emerging market, don't want emerging market. at the end of the day, i think a lot of those secular stagnation issues aren't yet decided and i certain certainly, certainly think we're going to get a whole lot more inflation ahead if we get the kind of growth this administration seems to think they can pull out of the hat >> t tom, quickly before we go, this market has just kind of shrugged off his seasonal period, august, september, into october. normally weak. all of a sudden we're going to start hearing people say, starting in mid-october, year
end tebnds to be positive should we listen to what they're going to say about the positive implications of the year-end rally or are the rules different now? >> if you look at the fundamentals, mike, we're good from an earnings standpoint. for the average investor out there that may be loading up on etfs, there's not a reason to panic. are there going to be geopolitical aspects that may form some more volatility? we're at record lows as far as volatility is concerned. i got to imagine as we get into next year, we're going to start seeing more normal aspects of volatility i mean, people are hoping so obviously, traders are hoping so but for the average investor out there, boy, it really is that goldilocks scenario. >> all right gentlemen, thank you, all, very much appreciate it tom, peter and rick, for joining us today. all right. with about 47 minutes to go before the bell, you have the dow up 48 points s&p 500, 2,555 right about on that closing record high. up next when we come back,
shares of wells fargo getting hit today after the bank reported third quarter revenue that missed street expectations. $1 billion in new litigation cos costs. a first on cnbc sbrir wiintervih the ce o, after the break. coming up, we're going to speak to jim grant, the man behind that critique who now says he got key details wrong. he'll tell us about that. today we're going to reach into our "closing bell" mailbag and hear who you have to say about about the show we always brace ourselves for this send us your thoughts. you got a little bit of time tweet us, facebook us, e-mail us, email@example.com. we'll read them at the very end of the show. you're watching cnbc first in business worldwide
welcome back take a look at bitcoin today 5,600 doesn't begin to explain it it surged to a record high driven at least in part by the cryptocurrency exchange coin base saying some users will be able to access instant purchases of bitcoin and buy as much as $25,000 worth at one time. that would apply to atherium and
others as well bitcoin having obviously a huge 48 hours year to date this thing is ridiculous. >> rumors out there that china might loosen up its treatment of the exchange seems as if pretty much every news that comes into the bitcoin news is taken as a positive. >> more of jamie dimon's comments later in the program. >> yes strong a pinions on all kisidesf this one. wells fargo lower today, down more than 3%, after posting weak on auto originations, commercial, and loans. joining us, john shrewsberry, member of the cnbc cfo council john, good to see you, thanks for coming on us with today. >> thanks for having me. >> talk a little bit about the quarter. how it fits into really how the year looks like it's going to be closing out. in your core businesses when we're talking about housing demand, auto loans we mentioned, those originations down. that portfolio is down is that on a managed basis, is that expected? and how does that fit into the,
you know, all the customer relationship stuff you're looking at >> sure. so i would say overall, this quarter looked a lot like the whole year will with loan demand relatively soft for the whole year it's coming in different areas differently. you mentioned auto that is a managed outcome. we set a couple quarters ago that we were going to slow down in the ororigination of lower c quality auto loans we're in the middle of restructuring of our auto business the auto portfolio is performin as expected. mortgages on balance sheet for prime jumbo mortgages, r loath lot of growth in that area commercial real estate, biggest real estate lender in the u.s. we've been relatively flat there. a very competitive market. asset prices are at all-time highs. we've been a little more cautious there cni loans which is the bulk of business loans, there's a variety of different undercurrents depending on what
industry, what geography you're talking about and reflects really the 2% economy that we're in plenty to do, but not a lot of growth overall so we love our loan quality right now, it's never been better go ahead >> i'm sorry no, finish your thought, john. >> i was just mentioning that we're, as the largest lender, we have a big spot in each of those markets. and we're cautious to make sure we're competing where we should be competing we step back a little bit if we think that we need to. but we're really happy about the call it $950 billion worth of loans or our books >> yeah, i was just going to say we remember eric yesterday, his interview with steve talking about maybe concerns in commercial real estate, but what about the pure vanilla interest margin you guys make or don't make in this environment we saw a similar pattern yesterday, shares of citi dropped when they wouldn't kind of increase it as much as they wanted you know, what happens if it doesn't move much higher from here how you guys going to be able to make money
>> sure. just to be -- to level set, the amount of money that we make, which throughout much of the year has been call it $5.5 billion per quarter, it was lower this quarter on the charge that was mentioned earlier produces about an 11% to 12% r.o.e. so in this environment, 2% growth, and short end of the curve coming up but still relatively low on the long end of the curve remaining low, it's still been a pretty hospitable environment for us to make decent money the question people are asking is what's going to happen with growth from here and what does it take? that interest margin is part of the story. we're more interested in increasing the dollars of net interest income that we're producing from year to year. we're up about 5% from last year some of that's from loan spread, some from the investmentme portfolio. deposits have been relatively inexpensive and we, like other big banks, have more long-term debt in our capital stack than we used to which is a little bit more expensive but very stable
and actually this isn't a bad outcome. >> what's the ongoing impact, john, of the litigation that you've had to do because of the account opening affair, also, what do you think it's goidoingo market share essentially on a forward-looking basis, how long is that potentially going to shadow the business >> sure. in deposits, we learned this week we're the number one retail deposit share bank in the u.s. we have the same number of primary retail relationships a year ago the value proposition of doing business with wells fargo has hung in quite strong doing more to be better every day. the leadership in that part of the business is improving things every day. i think we'll be fine there. one of the places we've seen slow down is in referrals from our own team members to other parts of the bank. so home equity loans, student loans, some categories like that are taking a little bit longer to recover doesn't make a big difference in
our overall performance this far. we need to get back to the level of competition and market share gains that we previously had >> john, when i speak to some industry insiders, they say that they hear anecdotal reports of other banks being able to pick up your best loan officers because their reputations have been tarred by what happened at wells. is there an effort to try to keep those people, maybe having to pay them a little bit more? what's the impact of being able to kind of keep that staff where it needs to be in order to keep making important loans going forward? >> you know, it's a good question i don't hear that. we -- our turnover, our voluntary atri voluntary attrition of team members is as low as it's been in six years including in parts of the business that have nothing to do with the sales practice issue and part of the business that does if, for example, we were to have to compete over labor, we'd compete vigorously and the rare occasion where i've seen that happen, which hasn't really been
in loan officers, we're willing to do that we've been adding great people to our platform over the last year most people coming from other banks recognize what we went through from a reputatimembeputl point of view have liveed through something like that. every major bank in the u.s. or frankly other parts of the world and still like the assets that we have. >> john, we have to go we want to ask you about bitcoin real quickly all your -- >> yeah. >> all your competitors have commented on it. what's wells think about the future, fate of that cryptocurrency >> well, first i'd say, you know, we like the underlying technology of blockchain and distributed ledger there's a place for that in markets but with respect to cyber, or ycryptoncurrency in burglar, doesn't look line a means of transaction because it's volatility is too high. our regulatory environment would not tolerate it. it makes it so easy to avoid about collecting taxing and
preventing elicit transactions from happening designed to promote that activity around the world to allow capital to move anonymously and freely that's not insync with the u.s. regulatory environment or expectations i don't see it happening here any time really soon. >> yeah. banks have to know your customer bitcoin is all about not really knowing your customer i guess, john >> on purpose. >> john shrewsberry, cfo of wells fargo, thanks very much. >> thanks very much. the harvey weinstein fallout continues to rattle hollywood. executive from amazon studios is hot water of sexual harassment allegations. we'll bring you the details ahead. an exclusive interview with jim grant, penned a harsh critique oraf y dalio but grant says some of the criticism was wrong. he'll explain next on "closing bell." for your heart...
welcome back last week, grant's interest rate observer published a scathing criticism of drudgewater advisers, the world's largest hedge fund run by ray dalio. claims rather than focusing on investing, he's giving ted talk and spending time on twitter says the fund relies heavily on etfs and pulls out dealings with its auditor. bridge bridgewater telling cnbc in a note, "this statement is devoid
of fact checking, lacks basic understanding of the rules, regulations and processes of the securities industry and is demonstrably false." joining us now on the phone to respond to all that is the man behind the note, grant's interest rate observer founder and editor, jim grant. welcome, jim >> thank you, kelly. >> what would you like to clarify to begin with about the note given what bridgewater had to say. >> it was a 5,000 word analysis of bridgewater and came essentially in two parts the first was a critique of bridgewater's organizational m.o. and description of some of its investment techniques. and the second, the much more titillating and much more familiar, notorious now, portion concerned an attack on the firm's compliance and regulatory practices. and on that, on the second point, we were wrong in particular, we were wrong to question the relationship between the auditor, kpng, and bridgewater. we made it out to be kind of a
nefarious thing because of disclosure having to do with a lending relationship which turns out to be rather vanilla like and wrong to suggest that bridgewater's former employees who were -- had gone to work at bank of new york melon, kind of an outsourcing thing, serving two masters and two other things having to do with prime brokage relationships and future merchant relationships we cast in the light of suggestispicion certainly should not have. bridgewater is a secretive and eccentric firm i let my suspicions of that get in the way of our ordinarily comprehensive due diligence at grant. i regret that. i owe certainly the compliance department of bridgewater, been on the phone for the past week, i owe those people an apology which i unreservedly extend. you know, we -- i do not retract the story in total at
bridgewater. i think we will continue to agree to disagree on such things as the approach to big macro investing, perhaps the turmoil in the "c" suite and size of president 160-odd-billion behemoth, how such a thing can generate continuously excellent returns given the difficulty of bringing some out-performance out of these big markets >> jim, in writing about bridgewater, which is not a publicly traded company, so you were saying, look, in a way we're not short the company, we can't be, but we are worried at they could be the face of the next crisis. you compared them to leeman, to ltc back in the '90s do you feel that way i know what you're saying about those issues you just mentioned about compliance, so forth, but you still think that this firm, itself, poses a threat to the financial system >> i think it -- i think it's
systemically important bridgewater denies that, but i think it's systemically important. and i think that it's -- i'm going to say in a considered way, it's obsessive secretiveness is not to its benefit and excites the suspicion of those who watch itt directly to answer your question, but direct answer, yes, i think it will play in some way in the peak of the next cycle, it will be seen as, you know, as a figurehead of this particular upswing in central bank levitated markets and in, you know, abnormally, in fact, uniquely low interest rates. so, yes, i do think that bridgewater will be the figurehead of the next crisis. >> is that, jim, because the strategies that it principally employs to the extent we can infer what those strategies are,
are so large and concentrated and have so many, perhaps, other followers, it would simply be taken too far or just because, you know, they're kind of the biggest and basically the most venerated firm and those firms always end up getting tarnished in the next downturn how are we supposed to kind of -- along what strand of that are we supposed to worry much? >> i think both. as for the strategies, we can't know a great deal, certainly if bridgewater is right, being a free country to say as little as it chooses to say, very little, indeed, about how it actually does business. you know, it -- ray dalio is on record of saying i guess it's in his book that he knows 1,000 uncorrelated trades. nobody else on wall street knows it doesn't bridgewater is on record as saying that it extracts what they call in the trade alpha by separating the good performers from the average ones and it does this apparently in ways that have nothing to do with
securities selection because it has -- owns very little equity and it owns most of that, it seems, in etfs so, so i'm speaking as an outsider i'm afraid with our gaffe -- not gaffe, our failure to get to the facts with respect to compliance, i'm not speaking exactly with authority on this, but it seem to me their approach to investing, megasized, this concentration in markets that are notoriously difficult to succeed in the big liquid currency in debt markets. they're not uncorrelated they're correlated interest rates. so i think the size of loan would prevent the suspicion it would figure prominently in the next downturn.
of course, been meteorically growing since 2008 i think also the nature of its trading will present a difficulty in the next downturn, if that downturn, especially, is characterized by unscripted rise in interest rates. >> jim, has the company threatened you with any lawsuits since this publication >> no. >> is so they've reached out to you simply to clarify how the company works? >> well, they were furious and i must say they have a case. i think -- it pains me deeply. you know, we've been at this for 34 years and i've been at this for more than 40 that's to say, writing about markets. i ought to know better we at grant, we are critics of many things. when we mount analysis, we ought to do so with every single l fact that can be factually determined you know, on, you know, checked and scrubbed and awe didn't do it is bridgewater annoyed
should it be yes. i'm afraid we're comprehensively -- i'm afraid they're comprehensively annoyed rather than selectively but that's their prerogative, too. >> comprehensively annoyed jim, we appreciate your candor and for calling in on this matter >> oh, you're entirely welcome >> thank you very much that's jim grant of grant's interest rate observer time now for a cnbc news update with sue herera hi, sue. >> hello, guys here's what's happening at this hour, everyone on capitol hill, former nfl players and medical researchers are participating in a forum to discuss chronic traumatic encephalopat encephalopathy, cte, what's known about brain injuries and thousand to treat them the former players shared their concerns about the disease. >> i think there's a good portion of guys who don't want to think about it, because honestly, it's frightening, you know, to consider that, you know, five, ten years down the line when you're done playing
that you could be a completely different person, you could slowly decline or, you know, rapidly decline. open enrollment for medicare insurance begins this sunday participants can change their medicare drug plans or medicare advantage plans, but if you're happy with your current plan, and if it's offered next year, it will automatically renew. this is a story for the ages how about this for a fish story? an amateur fisherman in britain tried to kiss a fish before releasing it yes, that's a tradition. when the fish jumped down his throat and almost killed him luckily he was fishing with two friends. you see them there who saved his life but not before some very anxious moments. unbelievable it was a dover soul. >> i don't know about you, sue, every time i read a story like this immediately i feel like i'm choking. >> i know. exactly. when they were trying to get the fish back out, paramedics arrived. they tried to get the fish back out but the barbs kept getting in the way so they couldn't get
it i mean, really >> so the paramedics witnessed this it's not just a fish story i was hoping to see video or something like that. >> you don't even buy it. >> i think because he went into cardiac arrest. >> there you go. >> nobody was shooting video but apparently it's a tradition to kiss the fish, and then you release that fish and the legend goes that you get a much bigger catch. he says he's going to kiss the fish again, but it won't be a dover soul it will be much bigger >> all right >> think about that next time i'm eating one for dinner. >> i know, right >> appreciate it we'll see you next hour. >> you got it. after the break, amazon suspending its studio chief amid allegations of sexual harassment e fosi ospeak with jescaf thinrmation which first published these allegations back in august when we come back. driving specific sectors of out performance. where a rising middle class powers a booming auto industry.
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>> so how did this jump from late august to being an issue today with amazon, which is now putting him on leave and facing questions about this whole project that he had undertaken >> so after we've reported about the allegations in august, i think jefrl thiseveral things h changed. one is the climate around sexual harassment with harvey weinstein. it's a different narrative right now. and isa hackett, the producer who alleges the incident yesterday gave an sbrinterview o "the hollywood reporter," some pretty salacious remarks i think that's probably one of the reasons that we see him on leave right now. >> yeah, some pretty gross stuff, let's just say. so now he's been placed on leave. as we understand it, he was amazon's point man in hollywood. this has big implications for amazon's business intentions there, right >> absolutely. amazon is a big spender in hollywood right now. trying to get a wedge in against
netflix, increasingly apple, as well as the traditional entertainment industry this really puts their studio in limbo. additionally, we know that jeff bezos has been sort of agitating for some bigger hits out of the studio he wants to make a big splash. so that team is really under pressure and i think a lot of people in hollywood are wondering if they're going to be in the game. >> and jessica, i wonder, i mean, not to really take a cynical cast on the fact that amazon seems to have moved relatively quickly to put him on leave but the fact amazon studios is getting criticized for really not having a string of hits, maybe was adrift a little bit, did that make it easier for amazon to make this move >> it would have absolutely you know, we'll never really know amazon's not saying -- really saying much about why now. we know there's an employee town hall today maybe something more will come out of that. but i think the business environment and, you know, bezos wants a shakeup there.
it will be fascinating to watch, particularly as this tech money continues to try to pour into hollywood, can amazon stay a big player >> and jessica, as they look to other people in hollywood who could lead this effort, they might be wondering what everyone's wondering now, which is, who else is involved what other allegations might come forward in this feels like it's much bigger than just a couple of people. >> absolutely. we hear from our sources everyone is kind of an egg shells over there. you know, lot of things being whispered about. remember, weinstein story was, you know, an open secret, if you will, that doesn't diminish the incredible reporting but reporters are out to learn more. i sure hope that companies are investigating more, themselves so i think we're seeing a lot of re-evaluating alliances. amazon had a production deal with harvey's company as well. that's also come under criticism. many people have as well
so i don't think that that singles roy out. that's another way that these stories are intersecting, you know, once again >> that's for sure jessica, i expect there will be much more. for now, thank you very much for joining us >> thanks, kelly >> that's jessica lessin from the "information." just over 15 minutes left in the trading day. health care stocks falling today after president trump announced plans to halt subsidies to insurers we'll talk about which stocks could be impacted the most, coming up next [vo] quickbooks introduces jeanette. and her new business: i do, to go. jeanette was excellent at marrying people.
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health care stocks getting hit on the back of president trump's plans to cut off key obamacare subsidies. trump speaking out about this issue today. >> csr ayments, if you take a look at csr payments, that money is going to insurance companies to help -- >> to help lower income people. >> that money is going to insurance companies to lift up their stock price. that's not what i'm about. >> bertha coombs is here to see why the stock price is falling now given what he's chosen to do. >> yeah, definitely, you're seeing insurance prices under pressure today that move by the president could mean that some could potentially face losses on those subsidies being cut in the fourth quarter. insurers like centene with over a million enrollees on exchange
and others will have to continue paying the lower out of pocket costs for low-inle cocome enrols most priced in the uncertainty of that being cut into rates for 2018 which is why you're seeing an extra 20% increase in many cases in and a lot of premiums for next year. but while insurers have effectively mitigated some of the obamacare uncertainty, hospitals face more of a long-term hit. with cumulative impact of the trump administration's moves to scale back obamacare the expectation now is that with the cuts we've seen for outreach and advertising, coupled with higher premiums, that you're going to see lower enrollment next year, fewer people coverage and that's going to be bad for hospitals. open enrollment is just stlee weeks away, guys, and will be half as long than last year. one more point, take a look at this chart we have seen out-performance by the insurers, but analysts will point out that insurers have
profited from obamacare when it comes to the growth in medicaid expansion and also when it comes to medicare growth not necessarily on the exchanges which is a real small part of their business >> just amazing to look at tenet which was over $60 back in 2014. it's trading at $13 today. bertha, thank you very much. bertha coombs. >> all right should we get to -- touyou t to do a little julia boorstin action i think we have a news alert >> hey, kelly, news alert on the weinstein company, bob weinstein, brother of harvey weinstein, and co-chairman of the weinstein company, coming out with a statement disputing the wide spread reports that the company is in trouble after harvey weinstein's been fired. bob weinstein saying "our banks, partners and shareholders are fully supportive of our company and it is untrue that the company or board is exploring a sale or shutdown of the company. "polaroid" is moving forward with a release date of nof nover
22 pdnd followed by "paddington 2," going on to say "war with grandpa" scheduled for february 23rd businesses continuing as usual as the company moves ahead." this is in stark contrast to the widespread reports that the company is facing pressure from all sides. also potentially tens of millions of dollars in terms of the costs, the investigations and settlements with the many many women who have come guard with allegations against harvey weinstein. guys, back over to you. >> julia, thank you very much. could tax reform turn apple in a trillion lldoar company one analyst is going to make his case coming up next. ♪fly me to the moon ♪ ♪and let me play amon-- (ding)
welcome up, shares of apple up .5% today rbc capital markets saying it could be a further winner from the tax reform legislation and could push the company's market cap over the $1 trillion mark. >> joining us to talk about that, amet from rbc capital markets. good to have you here. so, apple's got, you know, $250 billion or so in cash overseas, they have $100 billion in debt issued somewhat against that is that really what would be the catalyst bringing that rest of that cash over here as a catalyst to get to a $1 trillion market cap
>> yeah, you know, i'll say the tax is going to work out on two phases, one of it, yoiwhich you said, bringing the cash overseas back to the u.s. at a 8%, 9% repatriation potentially do m&a those are the tailwinds here the second part would be, which i think more important, if you structurally lower the tax rate from 35% to 20%, that will on a reoccurring basis bump up apple's etf by about $1 or 10% on conglomerate. i would say that, along with the benefit you get to the iphone x cycle, you know, should get the stock in the 190, 195 range, how you get the trillion dollar market cap scenario. >> mike, i thought it was interesting you were saying -- that's only a 20% move higher. >> not even, right >> we're not talking about this kind of massive lift, amit do they even need all that to happen for this stock to increase 20% in valuation over
time >> you know, they probably don't, right if you can get to the bull case on iphone x as being $11, $12 e ee eps, if you get there on a better multiple than it's trading at, you get to the $1 trillion price point without tax reform benefit the tax reform would be great, incremental on top of it i would agree with you, i don't think you need this to have secular sustained growth over the next couple years. >> is this stock going to trade in the near term based on holiday sales, how the iphone is tracking what are we looking for sort of near-term catalyst then? >> yeah. this is the quiet part of apple, you know, if you may, but once the iphone x launches october 27th, i think the stock's going to react essentially to two factors. one is, how long are the lead times, how long are people waiting to get the u foiphone x to your point, the holiday season, how that works second, how aggressive are carrier promotions to incentivize people to buy these phones it's all going to boil down to
the iphone x, lead time, promotion, so on that's going to drive the narrative from now until year end. >> all right amit from rbc. thanks for your time appreciate it. >> thank you e'> when we come back, wre going to have the closing countdown for you. >> stay tuned. the things you own? or the people that fill it with meaning? for 150 years, generations of families have chosen pacific life for retirement and life insurance solutions. protecting what's most important to you. that's the power of pacific. ask a financial advisor about pacific life.
green. they're losing a little bit of altitude the dow up 30. the s&p 500 just barely positive right below the all-time highs we saw about five week as ago a major rotation into small cap stocks, cyclical stocks, reflation trade. banks out of big cap tech. bertha coombs at the new york stock exchange for any little different story this week and today in terms of that rotation. >> e yeah, you know, i was talkn with one analyst he was saying what we're seeing is not so much these days is a risk-on go to tech, risk-off go to cyclicals and things that the are safe we're seeing a rotation within sort of the risk-on in a way it's kind of a risk-on within tack, in fact, if you look this week, wasn't so much the -- the chips were driving thick s things instead of netflix, the "n" in faang was nvidia lots of highs today among -- >> some people call it faang man with microsoft, adobe, nvidia. >> exactly. >> all right we'll see what next week has to
bring. we also brought moderate inflation numbers today. we'll see how that filters into everything else. >> folks are spending again, although ironically they're not spending on electronics. >> nvidia. it's all bitcoin we'll see where they go. bertha, thanks very much ringing the bell at the new york stock exchange, acme united corporation. up at the nasdaq, america's flagship pbs station the next hour of "closing bell" is all kelly not all mine he's coming back welcome to "the closing bell," everybody, i'm kelly evans here's how we're finishing up on wall street. dow going out a gain of 38 points on the bell, just below 22,900 a small gain for the s&p as well about 2 1/2 points higher to 2,053, closing high for the the broad market today the nasdaq composite the best performer. nasdaq today, 6,605, record high
close for the nasdaq today i believe it's also a record high close for the dow as well at 22,876. s&p, same story. a trio of record highs the russell 20000 did dip today, shed 2 1/2 points. the dow transports, a record yesterday, shedding 100 points today. we'll have much more on all of this in just a moment. the state and local tax deduction for the middle class may be back on the table as part of the gop's tax reform plans. with a catch we will have those details coming up. and those wildfires are still tearing through california we will talk to a local brewery founder about the impact she's seeing on her bottom line so far. deadliest week of wildfires in california california's history joining me today, cnbc commentator michael santoli is back cnbc contributor evan newmark next to him. bill smid from smid capital management joins me as well. going to be a rowdy group.
i can feel it. big winner in the dow, american express. big loser, verizon the s&p, the big winner was hp hewlett-packard inc. big loser, pg&e, related to the wi wildfires. financials weighing on the market with banner earnings. wells fargo down after weaker results. goldman sachs and morgan stanley on tap to report next week goldman sachs managed to finish higher after its results. >> "b" of "a" bucked the trend reflex selloff, sell on the news "b" of "a's" number, clean, expectations not quite as high i think in general, though, financials had this great four, five-week run. kind of a logical place to back off. and that's what's happening in the overall market you know, right after labor day, you had this big reflation trade, everyone decided it was time to own the trump trade again. this week that's backed away a little bit market stays hovering near all-time highs but what get you
there changes. >> we had some of the data as i mentioned, c cpi was weak i wonder if people are starting to embrace that as a good thing. >> if you like financial stocks, probably not a good thing. >> true. >> i mean, these super flat yield curves are not good -- i lost my hearing. >> we can hear you fine. >> that's fine >> super flat yield curve, not good for the banks in general. i don't like the banks i think there's pressure on the asset management side. there's not a lot of capital markets activity and a flat yield curve i can understand why everybody's attracted to them. but for me it's not very compelling. >> like a regional banks guy >> i just, you know, i don't know enough about the regional banks to say that they're good or bad i just think the whole reflation trade if that's not on, probably not where you want to be in the financials >> bill, what do you think is going on here? >> well, i think evan is giving the typical three to six-month view
he's right about the three to six-month view you're talking about stocks and these banks have been until a year and a half ago the most hated sector of the stock market for 7 1/2 or 8 years running and a year and a half of joy do not even up a market so, so he could well be right that this is a short-term top for those, but for someone like us that's owned them for years, at these valuations, with the o momentum of the next five years in front of them from an economic standpoint, these prices look way cheaper than the average stock on the market. >> evan, i'll have you respond you missed off the top, you said you were expressing a typical wall street three to six-month view. >> i hate being told that. >> that's a thing to tell other people. >> that really gets under my skin no, i think it's true there's been this rotation from different groups and the financials just had their turn but i'm not looking -- i think there are, as we've seen in the retail industry, we've seen it in recently in the content area
with -- >> media companies. >> -- at&t's earnings and some of the other companies we've seen the secular pressures take hold in industries and i think it's really the financials' turn now it's more than three to six months. >> all right let's talk for a second about tech stocks, bill, they were leading the day with hp inc expecting 2018 to be a good year, company pledging to return cash to hair shoulders hp's stock up 7, i call it 6.5%. big move look at the reaction in 3-d systems and stratasys, lower by 7%, 8% on hp announcement. faang stocks getting a boost netflix traded 1,000 bucks at close, a hair above there. nearly 2% move and bring in michael for the other names, too. >> netflix is interesting, i said forever netflix is the odd man out in faang, a different kind of business, direct to consumer, people decide to pay what they pay for. they kind of know when they're
consuming it it's not about this huge platform where your eyeballs are kind of sold on an open market and i do think it's also smaller in market cap than the other ones and the question to me is, i mean, everybody on wall street took up their numbers, raised their price targets ahead of monday's earnings for netflix. the question is are people's expectations in the short term just way too high? >> goldman raised their price target to $235, evan i think it was morgan at $225. anyway, you were just talking about the media companies being a place to stay away from. but is that because netflix is the big disrupter? >> i mean, it's -- you don't know, you know, when it comes to valuation, it's very hard. i mean, is netflixa long-term v winner as a company? absolutely does that justify its valuation? maybe. if you look at the trends, step back and go, you know, are the trends good for the cable business, are they good for espn and disney going forward my gut feel is no, these are bad trends doesn't mean end of the world.
just means the valuation really, really matters and netflix is a weird one where the valuation really hasn't mattered for a long time. >> bill, where do you fall >> this is a great juncture. you mentioned hp we took a lack ook at the 100 cheapest stocks in the other day. dominated by financials and dominated by consumer discretionary, mostly retail and media companies. the cheap stocks are concentrated on a p/e basis. ten of presidethe 100 cheapest in the s&p were all tech all economic studies show cheap stocks outperform average and expensive ones both historically on one, three, five and seven years. you get there to where these things are cheap, and then no one has the guts to own them when they're cheap and i would argue -- >> reminds me a little of gm and david einhorn's ownership of that -- >> from a psychological standpoint, you've got groups of stocks that virtually everyone is scared to death of, but in many cases, they're very
underlying fundamentals and companies like you mentioned, nvidias, netflixes, amazons of the world, you know from a historical standpoint 15 times earnings always ends up coming 30 times earnings and goes up on an escalator and comes down on an elevator. >> the issue with bill's argument, and it's a good argument that, look, i don't want to -- i mean, his point that, you know -- >> it's largely how -- >> it's -- i don't trade it's largely how -- >> how you invest. >> but the problem is that there have been very severe value traps over the last 10 to 15 years for anybody who is a believer that you can look at book values and things like that retail has been a giant value trap there are huge sectors where bill may be right, but the reality is, it doesn't help you if the businesses disappear. >> when it comes to hp, though, yes, the market loves financial engineering and sharing capital with shareholders and the rest of it.
if the story turns to we have a good strategy for 3-d printing, going to disrupt trade flows, manufacturing and everything else, that becomes a different thesis. >> a way -- we have to move on let me mention, "mad money's" -- no, not "mad money" ceo, hp inc ceo dion weisler will be on "mad money" don't in an exclusive interview and maybe bitcoin. we got to hit this today. >> oh, lord. >> that's how i feel, too. a record high. then it dropped back there it is at 5,500 almost at 5,900. had a couple things going on cryptocurrency exchange coinbase said some users with ill be able to access instant uses of bitcoin. jamie dimon was asked about bitcoin again today. of course this a day today after dimon on the call after the earnings said he wouldn't talk about it again but here he was listen >> i don't personally understand the value of something that has no actual value. you can do whatever you want, don't care all right?
that sounds definitive bitcoin hit a new high today. >> i could care less what bit ko bitcoin, how it trades, what it trades for the only value with bitcoin is what the other guy will pay for it honestly, i think it's a good -- bitcoin, buyers are jazzing up every day so maybe you'll buy it, too, and take them out i quite mean that, by the way. people are good at manipulating the press these days a case for bitcoin, if you live in venezuela, north korea, or if you're a criminal. but this is a last time i'm ever going to answer questions on bitcoin because i real will i don't care >> but he's so entertaining when he does. this is a very serious issue we've talked about this time and again. separate blockchain which jamie dimon, did, too, not talking about blockchange. we're talking about bitcoin. what do you say? >> we've had this discussion on this show several times. i'm 100% with jamie dimon on this it does serve a function
if you want to evade taxes, if you want to launder money, if you want to engage in activities that you do not want the authorities to know about, it is a good means of value. if you want to -- >> they will crack down. john shrewsberry told us the same thing last lour, hour he will crack down on it that was jamie dimon's point, governments will crack down on this, will not allow this to go on. >> we view this as a thermometer of a mania three, four years ago we had a mania in the drug stocks, right, with all the rollups that were being done and the thermometer was valeant pharmaceutical bitcoin is the new technology era against thermometer. jamie dimon is a very wise man and to be respected. and no one knows the insides of the guts of the financial system better than he does. i can't think of anybody that would know better on the subject. >> all right >> what makes it so fun is that the people who are really
enthusiasts for bitcoin who think that really it could take up a huge percentage of whether it's currency reserves, or just, you know, fuel the blockchain buildout, they would be upset if the ceo of jp morgan liked it. >> i know. >> outlaw maverick thing. >> i agree. >> it feeds on itself until it spins off all the energy. >> it was approaching $100 billion. the combined market cap of our largest financial -- i mean, it's -- >> well, more individually than either goldman or -- >> my -- >> it's not a company, right, if to you want to say you could make it look small next to $8 trillion of gold in the world. >> that's true comparison bill miller has made. quick last word, bill. >> mike, the people that own the nifty 50 were happy when it got criticized in the six months before the nifty 50 died in '73, '74. when people were criticizing the dotcom bubble and getting annihilated from it, everybody goes i'm so glad they're criticizing. and now the people that own the faang stocks are going, oh, i'm so glad they're criticizing. when the 180 p/e becomes the 20
p/e, life is a lot more fun for value investors. >> all right let's bring in leslie picker for a moment, another market flash for us. >> hey, kelly, amazon talking with suppliers about private label sportswear according to a report by "bloomberg" citing people familiar with the matter. that sent shares of other sports apparel makers, under armour, lulu, dick's and nike down when the news broke shares of amazon did not move. everyone used to them being at it again we reached out to them for comment and have not heard back yet. we'll let you know once we do, kell. >> all right, leslie, thank you. bill, anything you'd say on this development? >> t.o.p., that would be exactly the kind of company that would get into something after ten years of it being absolutely fantastic because they have to show revenue growth -- >> you're saying wait a minute, amazon is behind the game here >> no, no -- of course, they are. i mean, haven't they tried to be in groceries for 20 years?
and failed then bought whole foods. is that not behind the game? what am i missing? >> they're a chaser. they're a chaser what do you think about amazon overall. >> are they chasing movies chasing television they're a chaser -- >> everything. >> -- because their stock is dependent on the idea they got to grow their revenue 20% a year so that the people who are willing to pay a very high price for their market share and their t.a.m. will be happy >> bill, would you buy the lulus, dick's sporting goods which of those things would you own here, then we'll go? >> i already told my wife that since she and her peers are wearing the stuff that the 30-year-olds and 20-year-olds are going to get bored with it >> bill, is that a lululemon reference? >> no, it's just the whole athlete era. >> just the whole athleisure everyone agrees with it
preside santoli coined it lethargy. >> i want to know how bill's wife took that >> how well did that go over at home honey, you like it so i'm going to sell it bill, thank you for joining us. >> you're welcome. thank you. >> he was very quiet on that, too. bill -- >> he's running to the phone right now. president trump announcing today he will not certify the iran nuclear deal and that's worrying many u.s. companies that are now doing business with that country up next, we'll debate whether that move is overall bad for business. plus, congress reportedly may let the middle class keep the state and local tax deduction. but what income level will be considered middle class? and will that increase the odds of a deal? larry kudlow will be here to weigh in. and we want to hear from you, contact the show on twitter, facebook or over e-mail tell us what you think we'll read some thoughts at the u'ry end of the show yore watching cnbc, first in business worldwide is this a phone?
that's why xfinity mobile comes with your internet. you get up to 5 lines of talk and text at no extra cost. so all you pay for is data. see how much you can save. choose by the gig or unlimited. xfinity mobile. a new kind of network designed to save you money. call, visit, or go to xfinitymobile.com. we're very unhappy with iran they have not treated us with the kind of respect that they should be treating they should have thanked barack obama for making that deal they were gone they were economically gone. he infused $100 billion to $150
billion into their economy he gave them $1.7 billion in cash and they should be thank you, president obama. they didn't say that >> that, of course, was president trump speaking this afternoon and taking questions from the press after announcing he would decertify the iran nuclear deal now, is it a bad move for business remember, a lot of firms started doing business in iran after this deal. joining us to debate that, former ambassador to morocco, mark ginsburg. mark jacobson from georgetown university's edmond a. walsh school of service. welcome to you both. >> hi, kelly. >> mark ginsburg, let me ask you, there are a couple interesting thoughts about different ways this could play out. i know the question overall we're asking is it bad for u.s. business let me begin with that how do you think companies from boeing to anybody else who started to do work over there should react to this >> well, it's clearly going to be programmatic. the president laid out a 40-year indictment of iran and threatened to impose additional
sanctions that are already going to make it extremely difficult for american business, particularly if he imposes additional sanctions on the international -- on the iranian revolutionary guard corps. at the same time, there are american businesses that already stuck their foot into tehran and have a $17 billion boeing deal that is pending. so the president at the same time wants to help the iranian people i think that the iranian government, particularly president rouhani, will want to see everything he can to ensure that america doesn't walk away from this deal largely because without the united states lifting banking sanctions against iran, it's going to be extraordinarily difficult for commercial deals to go through, whether they're the united states or europe. >> mr. jacobson, you have an interesting kind of face-saving maneuver for everyone here i'm not sure the president is interested in that, honestly, as much as he is punishing iran he thinks that's what his job to do, feels like to me, anyway.
what do you think is a possible way out for everybody here >> sure. look, i'm concerned about the uncertainty that president's move does in terms of the middle east entirely. i'm concerned about the uncertainty this will do for u.s. markets i'm concerned about the fact that the president's move may make it more likely that we end up in h a war with iran. so what's a way out? the president does not like the optics of having to certify these agreement. objectively, the iranians are complying, yes, here and there there are problems but this happens in arms control regimes, this happens in agreements and you fix that there's a rather robust mechanism for making sure the iranians stay on track, and for making sure that the iranians comply over the long term. so what would i recommend? let's take this away from donald trump. as we already heard from the european counterparts, this is not a u.s.-only agreement. this is about the eu this is about the u.n. security council. this is -- and the rairanians o course. >> right >> so we could have congress refine the corker/cardin bill. that is, what made it possible
for -- the requirement for the president to certify that the iranians are complcomplying. let's push it down to the secretary of state and secretary of defense they have the information, let them certify take the politics of the white house out of this. let them work with their counterparts in europe and tehran take this deal and move it forward. because without this deal, you can almost guarantee that the iranians will acquire a nuclear weapon, which is what trump says he doesn't want to happen. >> mark ginsburg, how do you think this plays in congress, in terms of how the various factions within congress who want to pull different levers when it comes to potential new sanctions, or not, how is that all going to develop, do you think? >> well, it's going to have to happen within a 630-day window that is now opened up. based on a head count i undertook as part of an article i wrote for the "huffington post," the republicans don't have the votes to reimpose or snap back sanctions and, frankly, even the hawks, the
iranian hawks led by senator tom cotton, they may try to push a resolution through to impose additional sanctions not directly related to the nuclear deal so it really depends on whether or not either house of congress is prepared to snap back sanctions and, frankly, if you watch the president's speech, he did not recommend that sanctions be reimposed so i think that's a signal to the republicans. >> all right we will watch corker/cardin, see if their legislation can maneuver here. gentlemen, thank you both. the two marks. mark ginsburg, and mark jacobson this afternoon. qualcomm is ramping up its legal battle against apple we'll have the latest in their patent wash cor coming up. pumpkin spice flavoring has become huge in recent years. look around the grocery store, any starbucks. you know what i'm talking about. now that strong demand is coming at a premium that will hit you pretty hard tinhe wallet. our fast take when we come back. opportunities aren't always obvious. sometimes they just drop in.
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at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions, by sensing cyber-attacks in near real time and automatically deploying countermeasures. keeping the world of business connected and protected. that's the power of and. welcome back, it is time for today's fast take. we begin on this friday with the bombshell or not that saudi aramco may delay its ipo, which the "financial times" reported this afternoon but cnbc's report says it's whether to list saudi first and new york and london later on and which of the two venues to change chris of long view economics told us earlier today that aramco better hustle because he sees oil falling to $10 a barrel in the next six to eight years, guys, because of the switch to electric cars.
should aramco hurry to get on with it? >> i think for a lot of reasons they probably want to. it's a national priority, of course the biggest one perhaps of saudi arabia in the last year or so. yes, they want to get this done. it's been a very difficult situation, though, because each of the venues they might list in new york and london, they'd be competing and also deciding how much they're going to exempt it -- >> transparency. >> -- from their general listing rules. yeah, you have to believe they have to get out there. they think there's a risk it's not going to be a very long-term picture here. >> you've been holding these energy -- >> i know i sp i can say, oh, $5. going to $5. it has no meaning. >> i don't think the dollar number is as important as the point that 70% of oil goes to vehicle consumption. >> by the way, that's already in the market everybody knows that he's not bringing any particular insight to that. i think the saudis are as aware of thereat at as anybody. the ipo never made sense to me
don't understand it. >> i'm not saying it makes sense to the world. >> i don't -- >> you wouldn't be a buyer of it >> no. think about it, it's basically commodity. there's a price. a world market price for it. there's no difference between owning saudi oil and owning, you know -- >> it's the lowest cost of production on the planet. >> i get that, but all i'm saying is it's -- >> all right. >> look, the russian state oil company privatized, you can own a piece of that and it trades like a commodity company. >> up today about 1.5 related to the iran news. next google is building an anti-amazon alliance according to recode. began a month and a half ago when walmart made a deal with google home to offer thousands of its products through the voice service. home depot also got on board today target said it's expanding its google home partnership, too. is that going so far to say there's an anti-amazon alliance that google is building, michael? >> i wouldn't think that google would mind thinking they were partnering up with everybody they're a little bit more of a
platform others can bolt into. >> is it exculusivitexclusivity? to me, it implies there's going to be one or the other walmart is different. home depot, target -- >> it's unclear they'd want to go on one track versus another i don't think so maybe that selling point, look, you're not buying into the all-inclusive amazon world the way you might be with the echo. >> all right >> i don't know. >> i'm just going to -- i know, you're the alphabet guy. finally the pumpkin premium, starbucks puts a 25% markup on its pumpkin spice latte relative to the regular latte trader joe's marks up its pumpkin waffle mix more than double its regular pancake mix dunkin' donuts, guys, doesn't mark up its pumpkin products at pull what cosmic lessons can we -- >> i have to let him get a huge crack at this. >> i'm a huge pumpkin guy. love pumpkin pie i'd never put any of the pumpkin spice but i love pumpkin pie. >> how can you say you love pumpkin bpie and you're a pumpkn
guy but don't like the products -- >> this is part of my thing, it's a millennial product, this pumpkin thing. >> i'm on board with you. >> millennials are willing to pay for more the cool factor. >> or it's sort of like a seasonal little hook you know it's time to do it, i'm going to buy it -- i mean, 25% sounds like a lot. >> hefty markup -- >> i bet a lot of them don't mike pumpkin pie. >> you say the cool factor i think the pumpkin spice thing has become a joke. >> do you like pumpkin pie >> sure. >> i was thinking about this the other day, i'm surprised pumpkin buy doesn't taste better than it does after hundreds of years we've been eating this dish and it's kind of gelatinous and cool and i like it with whipped cream it would be drachticalstically improved if you make a great one, i'd -- >> whoi objectively would a pie made out of squash -- >> pecan pie, that's the way to go that's the way to go anyway, we want your take on today's fast take.
we always do skpaes especially today share your thoughts and we could read them during the "closing bell" mailbag. time for a cnbc news update, let's get over to sue herera. >> speaking alongside the first lady outside the white house, president trump discussed a variety of topics including the latest developments with north korea. >> we are going to see what happens with north korea i will say, look, if something can happen where we negotiate, i'm always open to that. but if it's going to be something other than negotiation, believe me, we are ready. more so than we have ever been. iranian president rouhani says iran will remain committed to the multinational nuclear deal as long as it serves the country's national interests and its ballistic missile program will expand despite pressure from the u.s. he said president trump's speech decertifiedsults and fake
accusati accusations. aston martin unveiling its db convertible, $216,000 starting price if you want it, preorder it now for delivery starting in the spring of 2018 right at the start of convertible driving weather. the car has been the driving force behind increased profits at the luxury automaker. that is the news update this hour, kelly. backdo downtown to you have a great weekend. >> sue, you, too thank you very much. our sue herera. eliminating the state and local tax deductions was supposed to go a long way in helping to pay for president trump's tax cuts now lawmakers are reportedly discussing a way to keep those deductions for the middle class. up next, the man over there, larry kudlow, is going to explain how congress may define the middle class and how tax ttg atedan be paid for without cuinth duction stay with us
welcome back gop lawmakers are considering keeping one of the most hotly contested deductions as they hammer out tax reform. there could be a catch here. robert frank joins us now with those details. robert >> kelly, house republicans are considering a new plan to allow the middle class to continue deducting their state and local taxes. the question is what is the dollar definition of middle class and does it depend on where you live now in the face of opposition from high tax states like
california, new york, new jersey, house republicans are proposing to eliminate state and local tax deductions for the top earners, but allow the middle class to keep them now the next battle is where to draw the income line the median income in america right now is around $59,000 a year but $59k goes a lot further in illinois and minnesota than new york or massachusetts now. representative peter king of new york, he says the cutoff should be $400,000 a year he's saying that counts as middle class in his high-cost district of long island. but if you, according to the census data, the median imcome in new york is $61,000 massachusetts, $74,000 illinois, $57,000. $52,000 in iowa. analysis by pew research finds the upper bound of the middle class, that's about where the federal government would draw this line, that varies even more widely by state. being in middle class in new york state stops at about $112,000 california, $120,000 mississippi, it's $75,000.
alabama, it's $85,000. this matters because the higher they raise the income threshold, the less revenue they get from eliminating the tax. i defer to my esteemed colleague, larry kudlow, real tax expert i suspect they'll work it out. it shows yet again when you fix one tax problem, you often create yet another guys, back to you. >> that's for sure robert, thank you very much. let's talk more about this with cnbc senior contributor larry kudlow what -- so they're talking ab t aboabou keeping it, big pay for, but phasing it out above $350,000, $400,000 >> i think everything robert said is right. the politics of this dictate a very high income threshold. >> like how high >> that's a good question. >> what do you mean by the politics of it >> the politics of it like in new york state, i believe we still have nine republican congressmen. if you just phased out s.a.l.t. as they called it, we'd have zero republican congressmen, that's what they're saying
peter king has his finger on the pulse of that. what i'm hearing, they want to have it but will be a real high threshold. the group they're most worried about, i know bob is correct on the median income stuff, but, you know, the middle class is a little different definition. and they're worried about the $150,000 to $300,000 group where preliminary models have shown they'll take a hit from s.a.l.t. so that has to be fixed. lot of people talking about giving back the property tax so that you'll get to deduct the property tax. >> one or the other. >> and -- but then you're going to have to kick in the s.a.l.t. but at a high income threshold. >> when -- >> they're not going to lose it all together. >> rand paul was saying if you cut taxes overall by enough, losing the deductions doesn't matter you know, but this is thorny and sounds like the president is not very happy with the impactdeduc. if you got rid of it entirely,
wow wou how would you pay for the whole thing? >> growth. >> i knew you were going to say that. >> can i be deductions right now i'm a tax reformer not now. >> when you say you don't care, you say you would leave everything as is. >> for the moment. >> not worry art the pay for. >> just get through the business tax relief which trump now is arguing will help the middle class wage earners. you heard me say this a million times. he's now picking that up that's the key with the repatriation and expensing and steve moore and i put in a doubling of the standard dedu s deducti deduction, turning out to be a very popular provision the rest of this stuff, if it's agony and heartburn and warfare warfare, i don't care growth. >> will they pass that if they get rid of the, quote/unquote, pay fors if they don't mess with anything -- >> there are a few they won't mess with. combination of the net interest deduction versus unlimited
expensing. for this round, i want so much to get investment restarted and get that productivity and wage increases. my view is, let's get the basics done let's get to 3% to 4% growth rate which of course improves the scoring of this enormously the republican party is starting to come around on that growth issue. >> what about the fed? let's raise this -- >> one last thing. i want to get to the fed that's -- >> yeah. >> there's going to be, i think, a senate budget vote scheduled for thursday okay because you know the senators don't really work so you have to get it on the right day. and right now, the republicans do not have 50 votes and you can't have tax cuts and reconciliation instructions n s unless you have a budget resolution complicating this, by the way, you mentioned rand paul, dis appoi appointing i love rand paul, he's so disappointing on this. thre threatening to vote against it thad cochran, literally deathly
sick tragic thing he may not be able to vote that's a loss they'll have a hard time with mccain is probably going to vote against it, lisa murkowski will vote for it. my friend, susan collins, may be a vote for it. not going to run for governor. >> >> named some people who -- maybe three who aren't for it so they don't have the boats. >> have to hustle around real hustling. i don't think the democrats will vote for this budget resolution. >> democrats going to say let's get the d.r.e.a.m.ers in there, it's not a clean thing. >> i think democrats will vote for the tax cuts i don't think they're going to vote for the budget. there are stringent budget cuts in there that's a difficult thing now, can we -- >> we got to go. >> do the fed. >> real quickly. you wanted to flag what john kelly said earlier this week that has gotten stuck in the shuffle. >> it has. it's really important. he may be scrambling, this whole fed story.
what we said is a decision is not imminent that goes against what everybody in the white house has told me, but you got to believe it because he's the chief of staff. >> sure. >> second point, said this sort of odd -- i'm not sure exactly what this means, but he's saying all our choices are first-round draft choices. meaning we have smart people but then he said, and we have more to come so the implication is, if you're thinking the final four look like warsh, taylor, yellen, et cetera -- >> we just showed those faces. >> -- powell i'm not so sure. general kelly is saying they're going to have more interviews. that is the first time i've heard that i've been very close to this process. i consulted on this process. i'm just saying to investors and so forth, what you think is going to happen may not happen where you think the final four is may not be the final four and they all have different points of view i think some of us are pushing a warsh/taylor ticket.
now woe're going into a ticket. >> oh, no. >> a ticket. >> i'm saying that about the idea of a ticket. >> a ticket. >> complicated enough. if you're going to take this one, you have to take that one. >> if it was simple, they wouldn't ask my advice i want to make this interesting and idiosyncratic. really, folks, go and read the news conference, what general kelly said it was very -- it was a brilliant news conference. but this fed thing kind of got lost >> all right. >> we're going to have to revisit this. >> i appreciate you. larry, always a pleasure thank you so much. >> thank you. >> larry kudlow. we'll ski what happens next week especially come thursday. the deadliest wildfires in california's history are still raging coming up, we'll speak with a brewery founder in santa rosa, a mile outside the evacuation zone, about the impact on her business so far. first, there's no love lost between call co between quco a alealmmndpp on the patents. the two tech companies are at it again. we'll have the latest on their legal battle next. that make everything from cell phones
geezer. geyser. geezer. geyser. enough. geezer. whoaa, wooooo. dude, be careful. i think you should come camping. why would i camp in the atacama desert? oh... 3x points on travel and restaurants on every continent. sapphire reserve, from chase. make more of what's yours. tensions between call come a qualcomm and up a l are bubbling up once again. josh lipton has the latest on the bad blood. josh >> reporter: kelly, analysts say this is unlikely to go qualcomm's way it was another real escalation in this fight. the chip maker filed lawsuits in china to try and ban the sale and manufacture of iphones there. qualcomm saying in a statement, "apple employs technologies invented by qualcomm without paying for them. the chip maker says the suit is
based on patents that covers touchscreen technology that apple uses in current models apple hitting right back telling cnbc "regulators around the world have found qualcomm guilty of abusing their position for years. this claim is meritless and like their other courtroom maneuvers, we believe this latest legal effort will fail." remember, this fight is really over how much apple should have to pay qualcomm for its patented technology in the iphone qualcomm wants a percentage of the iphone selling price apple wants to pay something closer to a flat fee this suit comes at an important time for apple and its business in china the new iphone 8 line has really just gone on sale and the new iphone x starts shipping in november its last reported quarter, greater china generated $8 billion in sales bernstein says qualcomm could have real challenges, though apple indirectly employs a lot of people in china who assemble all those iphones calling into question whether china would really want to shut down production kelly, back to you >> we may find out
line, natalie, thank you for being here >> hi, thank you for having me >> are your doors open for business now >> yes, you mean received a picture of a group of firefighters having lunch at a pub right now. >> that must come as some encouragement. what does the scene look like where the fires hit you? >> the fires came in right into downtown early monday morning, and just wreaked havoc, just tearing down entire neighborhoods, burning down hotels, restaurants, kmart, other businesses, jumped the freeway. just wreaked havoc, and super high winds it was terrifying, is what it was. and then, you know, kind of started to leave downtown over the course of the next couple of days, and we have several fires burning around us. the closest ones are to the southeast, mostly east of our breweries, as well as just kind of up to the north
they're kind of burden of proof a little bit more to the east of us right now so we don't feel that we're in too much danger right downtown and our business has been open since tuesday. we were able to open with a skeleton crew, although we have several employees who are still evacuated. the ones who are here were able to rally and come and help us open i'll tell you what, the community has appreciated so much to have a place to go and have a warm meal and have wi-fi and be able to, you know, just talk to each other and share their stories. >> oh, sure. how much of a business hit are you anticipating at this point going forward? >> well, although we're open, many of our customers right now are first responders, evacuees, and people who have lost everything and literally have nowhere to go. and so we're giving away a lot of stuff right now we're buying meals for people, we're giving away a lot of free clothes. you know, i'm not worried about making money right now
financially it's definitely a big impact our sales are probably about 60% of what they would normally be at this time but honestly, it doesn't really matter, we'll make it up later we're just happy to be able to help our community >> natalie, it's evan. i had a question if we were to visit sonoma right now, would we see widespread devastation everywhere, or is it more patchy by neighborhood? because we see the photos and the photos look absolutely devastating. but i can't tell whether it's widespread or it's kind of highway by highway, neighborhood by noboeighborhood. >> sure. so if you were to drive north from san francisco and come into santa rosa, south of santa rosa, in the downtown area, you wouldn't see any danimage the minute you get to north of
downtown, literally the next exit, you'll see some very shocking sights. you'll see major hotels, the kmart right off the freeway, the luther burbank center for the arts is right off the freeway, wall see devastation right off the freeway. and then if you were to venture off, which you're not allowed to go anywhere right now, they won't even let you off the freeway now, several exits are closed, headed north all the way up to windsor, because the fires are still raging in the hills just to the east of us so eventually we'll be able to go up, you know, i don't really want to right now, but you can go up and see the neighborhoods, particularly coffey park, which everybody has seen the footage of one of our suppliers came in this morning for the first time in a t-shirt and sweatpants, and he's a salesman. i said, what happened? he was telling me this story of
evacuating coffey park in the middle of the night, and the story was terrifying, absolutely terrifying but he was just grateful to get all of his family out and survive. to answer your question, there are pockets, but they're very, very large pockets and so the average visitor to santa rosa will absolutely see the devastation. but not to its complete magnitude unless you venture off the freeway, which you can't even do right now. it's also happening in the town of sonoma. i'm sure you've heard about calistoga in napa valley, which the whole town has been evacuated. >> natalie, wehope you can bounce back even more quickly. i'm glad you're able to operate a little now thank you for painting the picture for us, it's a tough one. thanks for calling in. >> i appreciate you listening to me have a great day >> you as well that's natalie cilurzo from the
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to start here. leslie picker has more >> reporter: this is from cnbc's loren hirsch, reporting that nestle's confectionary business is accepting bids. they said in june they were exploring options and could be valued as much as $2.5 million >> thank you, leslie reacting to our top stories today, g. hawkins says grant seems to think it doesn't end well for bridgewater because success has been due to the fed qe
go >> people think if you work from 9 to 5, you're a hero. >> i think you're a hero that's all we had time for we had some poking fun at you too. >> for the pumpkin >> i can't wait to eat pumpkin pie with you >> that's for thanksgiving >> a got a couple of weeks to think about that >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time squares. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast money," stocks surging to record highs. traders thing there's one best chance to catch the rally. we'll explain. bitcoin has all of wall street talking the f.a.n.g. stocks surging back