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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 13, 2017 5:00pm-5:31pm EDT

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go >> people think if you work from 9 to 5, you're a hero. >> i think you're a hero that's all we had time for we had some poking fun at you too. >> for the pumpkin >> i can't wait to eat pumpkin pie with you >> that's for thanksgiving >> a got a couple of weeks to think about that >> that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time squares. i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast money," stocks surging to record highs. traders thing there's one best chance to catch the rally. we'll explain. bitcoin has all of wall street talking the f.a.n.g. stocks surging back this week and one name is
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poised for a breakout. first, the ultimate showdown it's netflix versus nvidia these two highing flying stoc ig stocks have been trading places all year there can be only one winner if you're putting fresh money to work right now, would you rather, netflix or nvidia? >> this is hypothetically there can only be one winner >> you can only choose one >> the way she said it was there can only be one winner >> in terms of your answer give me your answer. >> netflix i'll give you a quick reason why. i think when netflix increased their prices and the stock didn't go down and it's now all-time high, the customer base is sticky, their international growth is here to stay hastings has done everything
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right. if they even get half right in this autonomous vehicle thing it's going to double when the stock was trading a hundred, guess what, it doubled, now you're getting into nosebleeds >> would you rather. >> hold on a second. nosebleed territory, and we're not including the netflix pe you have a case where also think about what happened this week for media stock. think about those names that actually are on some level it's about -- >> doesn't that prove that netflix has a great position in the whole space? >> netflix has an annual -- excuse me, a monthly subscription there's a max to what they can get. i think they're getting near at least they're starting to saturate their u.s. market they'll grow in the same way proportionally or internationally. standpoint they don't deserve the multiple that nvidia who at least is in this frontier that we think the growth could be massive. i get why they have that multiple >> forgetting the multiple side, when you look at the valuation of these companies, you can't
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look at a traditional valuation metric you have to look at the growth opportunity. you have to look at the investment they've made to go after the total doctor'sable market netflix has done that. their operating margins are up from 8% this year. they're going to ramp earnings from the at some point because of their costs falling off the ledge, essentially they're spending -- >> netflix >> netflix has been spending like crazy to ramp up their international business >> there is a risk >> go ahead. >> there's plenty of different risks here the competition i think right now is a bigger problem than it's ever been before for netflix. disney is going to have a standalone >> in two years. >> disney will have a standalone over the top >> you will get there. >> there's going to be more going forward than there are right now. nvidia, where are people watching these movies? on their cellphones. on their ipads
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what are all these devices need? they need multiple chips, not just one, in your house, in your car. nvidia is the way to go, not netflix. >> the over the top i would argue is probably a benefit right now for netflix. there's too many offerings right now. it's forcing people to make a decision about one offering that they can really count on >> amazon prime video, just as much if not more than netflix. >> u.s. saturation is basically there. international growth, of course. you're looking at margins, the most important thing in these stories. >> my point is simply that who is the ultimate skinny bundle? it's netflix outside of all the disney, all the stuff that my kids watch, and that's been on any channel in cable history for the last 25 years, netflix is spending either an enormous amount on content, that's not going down how many people are absolutely hooked to "orange is the new black" not that many.
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>> if you go international, it's not as easy as you think to come up with that type of content, internationally. so i have been a bull on netflix. i am a bull on nvidia. i think at this point, at this crossroads, you choose nvidia, you go down that route >> when you called my name, i got worried. >> guy, earlier this week, we had some interesting numbers from at&t about subscriber loss. >> yes, we did >> we talked to craig moffett about the fact that they're actually losing money on their bundle is that good news for netflix or bad news for netflix >> all these kids, what do they do on a friday night, the millenials >> this is a family show >> thank you they're not amazoning and chilling they're not disneying and
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chilling they're not huluing and chilling netflix has become q-tip, band-aid until that changes -- tim is laughing >> i actually now want to start calling you q-tip for the rest of tonight >> you want to put a multiple on earnings, you talk about valuing this company they're going to earn probably ten bucks in 2020-ish. put a 25 multiple on that, it's a $250 stock that's at the low end. it could be a lot higher >> again, you and q-tip believe these guys have no competition i think the competitive landscape has never been worse i don't see a moat around these guys i see a valuation, when i look at nvidia, let's make clear, when netflix and nvidia and emerging markets and bitcoin are all going higher, bull sentiment has never been greater when that pulls back, who is going to get hurt more
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to me that's netflix >> that's what we left out of the conversation on nvidia bitcoin mining we didn't mention the whole side of the story >> which has been a tail end for amt as well. everybody has made extraordinarily cogent points at this desk. >> thank you >> the one misstep netflix took over the last six or seven years was they increased pricing a while back and the market hated it now they increased prices and nobody bats an eye >> and the landscape is that hulu just dropped its price for first year subscribers >> you tell me about a moat. there's something clearly going on >> can you tell me what that is? >> i can't i can't tell you what that is. >> from roku and amazon and everybody else that has the same ubiquitous programming and then their own small slice of something. content. >> what separates jell-o from the gelatin generic in the
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store? band-aids are adhesive strips. >> you're saying stuff that we grow up with kids growing up now, there's so many other over the top. >> and that's why kirkland at costco is a success because there is no loyalty to a brand let's take a vote, shall question would you rather, hands raised for netflix. hands raised for nvidia. >> split >> i am reluctant to raise my hand for either. we're in an environment where the animal spirits are off the charts gun to my head, nvidia >> cotton swab still ahead, health insurance stocks getting crushed after president trump's executive order to cut health care
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subsidies. plus earnings reported next week we'll reveal the stock set for a breakout we've got a way to get your money back if tesla took you for a ride much more "fast money" ahead ♪ it's not just a car, it's your daily treat. ♪ go ahead, spoil yourself. the es and es hybrid. experience amazing.
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welcome back to faster fast. health insurers and hospital stocks are down after president trump signed an executive order ending health care subsidies bertha coombs has the winners and losers >> reporter: after months of threatening to cut csr subsidies, the president has pulled the plug. >> that money is going to insurance companies to lift up their stock price. that's not what i'm about. take a look at who those insurance companies support. and i guarantee you one thing. it's not donald trump. >> reporter: the move could leave exchange insurers facing new losses in the fourth quarter since they won't be getting reimbursed insurers still have to make those cost repayments to enrollees, 6 million under the law. most have priced in the uncertainty of csr cuts into rates for 2018, with really big
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increases, some of them more than 20% centene's ceo tells cnbc he expects they will get those big increases approved in all of the markets where they're participating next year. the cbo expects that a million fewer people will actually sign up because of those high premiums, and more people without coverage means more pressure for hospitals that are already facing debt problems like tennent, that's going to be a hit for them when you add the executive order, some people are calling this a synthetic obamacare repeal without congress. the president talked about stocks when you look at what's actually driven the health insurer stocks, they have profited from obamacare and expanded medicare enrollment what's driving growth in profits these days is medicare as more boomers reach the age of 65.
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back to you, melissa >> bertha, thank you, bertha coombs in the nysd >> i'll stay with the hmo trade, that's better than the hospitals trait right now. the tailwind of an aging demographic, an aging population is going to be much better than the headwinds of a failing obamacare. so unh, humana, aetna, those names. but if we look at the ones that are facing -- centene has had a great year i guess they factored in, they figured out how to navigate. i would stay in hmos >> you're in hmos. >> they're the best in breed, they should trade at premium and they do. they're expensive but these guys are on the right side of public perception in terms of the provider/payout conundrum. they're doing things to at least
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try to be on the same side as ultimately their customers, which is they're trying to drive down certain costs there's no place in here where i think where we are right now with the affordable care act or where there could be a new game changing plan, these guys are left out in the cold they're always going to be cream of the crop and receive the highest premiums a deepening scandal involving covey steel. the japanese steel maker revealed it found falsified data other steel companies rallying on the news. time to buy these stocks, grasso >> they popped in the last couple of days, i would let them breathe a little bit i definitely think this trade has some degrees going forward china is ramping up, has increased in imports, decreased in exports >> earlier this year when wilbur ross was put in his position, we talked about it on the desk, it
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proved to be wrong, but he said he should be great for the steel industry the u.s. steel industry had a lousy run but has come back. steve is right, they've had a great run. i still think these things are levered to move higher you watch the moves u.s. steel has had, every time you've counted them to the upside or downside, they overshoot on both >> i think what china is doing, steve is talking about production, supply side, they're doing everything you want to hear they're cutting back on bad and inefficient production that's reverberating all the way through. the kobe steel thing is affirmative for all steel makers they will get protection from the trump administration >> the september data got this group going. a lot of these names, the steel names, the iron ore players. in general it's short-lived. i think the data that comes out next month will be truer based
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on the fact that there is government restrictions on the steel manufacturing over there i think the numbers will reflect it next month. i would be taking profits here especially in the iron ore names. another week, another box office bomb. as movie stocks are tanking, it could get a lot worse. we'll explain why. i'm melissa lee. >> if you're stupid enough to buy, you'll pay the price one day. >> not today, because bitcoin just hit another record. we'll tell you why there could be even more to come plus -- >> it's beautiful. >> that's what a top technician is saying about facebook's 'lart. wel show you what he means, when "fast money" returns. something we all think about as we head into retirement. it's why brighthouse financial is committed to help protect what you've earned and ensure it lasts. introducing shield annuities, a line of products that allow you to take advantage of growth opportunities. while maintaining a level of protection in down markets.
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the only value of bitcoin is what the other guy will pay for. people are very good at manipulating the press and getting news out every day, cnbc, nonstop bitcoin. who cares about bitcoin? >> just watch the show that was jamie dimon speaking out on bitcoin, which hit another all-time high today. his words were opposed to the
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cfo of jpmorgan, who said "we are very open minded." he said he would stop commenting on bitcoin but had more to say today. is dimon in bitcoin denial >> he's an amazing ceo but he's definitely in denial the barn door is open and all the animals are running out. it's a more than just a fad. you've got blockchain which jpmorgan -- >> he likes the technicaology. >> he loves the technology >> will there be more regulation going forward? >> there will be >> is that a negative? >> we've got no institutional ownership. once they start to put gates or moats around it from a security perspective, it's lights out it can have incredible momentum
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higher >> the facts are hard to dispute. you have double the amount of digital wallets than a year ago. you've seen a selloff in lesser known coins. you're seeing some consolidation, some best of breed coming through what a lot of the guys who are spending days and nights doing bitcoin, mining, you name it, bitcoin's technology may not be, you know, of the icos out there, of the coins and tokens out there, may not be the one ultimately seen as the most technologically advanced i think we're at a place where this is where it comes down to, who will be the winners and loses. there's no question blockchain is something every big financial institution in the world is spending time on, including a lot of smaller ones. stay focused that's it. a frightening year for the box office as even major blockbusters fail to boost attendance julia boorstin in los angeles has the details. >> reporter: the u.s. box office is down about 5% year to date,
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it's been struggling since summer and the trend is getting worse with october so far running about 22% behind the same period last year. it's been dragged down by "blade runner 2049" which grossed a third less than projections. four movies open this weekend including "happy death day" which grossed $1 million in previews last night. the film that's expected to come in second, "the foreigner," a u.s./china co-production starring jackie chan it's grossed $44 million overseas disney's "thor: ragnarok" is expected to be huge. theater stocks really need the
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boost. amc shares are down 56% over the past year. regal and imax are also down what kind of roller coaster will lie ahead? one we hadbush says he expects box office to be 5.7% down in q1 in 2018. and a stronger summer lineup than 2017. with some familiar brands returning to theaters, we'll have to see if moviegoers suffer more of the franchise fatigue that we saw over the summer or whether the movies are just better >> thank you, julia boorstin in los angeles. the quality of the movies, but also do people want to go to the movies >> no. we talked about it at the top of the show, people are hanging out, watching netflix and eating
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dominos. all fun. amc, she mentioned remember back in the summer, went from 20 down to 12. you had a short bounce up to 17. guess what, it's back below 14 again. trades at a huge valuation the only reason the stock is hanging in there is because there's 20% short interest no touch >> i agree, no touch disney, ahead of the "star wars" films, they've done well not only from the film but also the merchandising perspective as well that's probably the only play from a music perspective >> we've overpriced the death of the movie theater. can you imagine sitting behind q-tip in the movie theater >> you wouldn't see anything, he's got a very long torso >> you play the content, you play disney. you saw the three movies up
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there, those are the movies everybody is going to see. i'm a germophobe, i'm the wrong guy to ask about movie theaters. millenials, the guys and girls are watching on their computer they're watching on their phones they're not sitting in seats anymore, they're just not. >> i'm a lousy moviephobe. how many "star wars" movies will they make? >> it doesn't matter, it's working. today is friday the 13th the traders picked four stocks they think are freaky good for your portfolio >> viacom has been a ghoulish stock to hold, quite scary this whole charter overhang has been just that, i think they get the deal done and stock's going higher >> biogen, updates will be around the corner. biogen >> square up 140% year to date,
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pretty freaky. i'm still in the trades, crazy square >> mcdonald's says freaky things, stocks are up to an all-time high. >> "options action" starts after this break so i've asked chase sapphire reserve cardmembers to find my next vacation. chile, what's going on? i'm at the el tatio geysers. geezer. geyser. geezer. geyser. enough. geezer. whoaa, wooooo. dude, be careful. i think you should come camping. why would i camp in the atacama desert? oh... 3x points on travel and restaurants on every continent. sapphire reserve, from chase. make more of what's yours.
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