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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 18, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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crackdowns on citizens with surveillance >> and they're able to thread the needle, throttling back on capital flight and credit creation i think the big question is how much longer. >> we'll get more details in terms of the economy i think in november but for now we still have a week to go to find out what more is said in terms of china's quinquennial plans for its future thank you, michael, as always. that does it for "closing bell" today. "fast money" begins right now. "fast money" starts right now with the dow closing above 23,000 for the first time ever, soaring more than 150 points today. you guessed it, that's a record high for the markets that move thanks to big blue, ibm up nearly 10% following its earnings call last night, the biggest move for the stock in eight years. while still early in the season, 81% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, and overall earnings are up 13% from a year ago. now we've got strong earnings to go along with strong economic
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data, low interest rates not too shabby, especially for a market run that many, including people right here on this desk, have been skeptical of so is this rally finally earning, get it, earning respect? is it safe to call this the greatest bull market of all time guy. >> i'm one of the skeptics but i've also said you have to respect the price action markets don't give you ample time to buy low and sell high, it keeps grinding higher is it the greatest bull market of all time? apparently so with trump, we played that great music on the intro so it must be. our federal reserve is absolutely an okay stbstacle. they've done everything right to get us where we are now but the hard part starts now if you think this will be unabated with the federal of the federal reserve, i will say you know what, there's hiccups along the way. >> we've had obstacles to past
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bull runs. we've called that climbing the wall of worry. aren't we making this monumental climb here to record highs against a whole list of headwinds potentially? >> listen, we have been doing this for nine years, right i would consider myself among one of those skeptics that you talked about, i'm a worrier, that's what i do and it worries me even now, all of a sudden we're calling it the greatest bull market of all time >> we're asking the question is it the greatest bull market of all time? >> no. i'm just saying i'm not going to be the guy on tv that has the sound clip that says greatest market of all time because you know it will go down tomorrow. to me, this market is about, you mentioned interest rates, as long as we have low interest rates, we have a relatively stable to weakening dollar, then this bull market will continue, because we're really elsewhere are you going to put your money, interest rates bounced off 240,
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bounced down to 230 or so today. to me that's the story of this market >> i feel like you're being too hard on yourself you were bearish 200 handles ago on the s&p you got on board, so i think you're hard on yourself. there is room to climb from here global growth is coming back regulatory hurdles have faded. i do think that we could be at a point now where the fed, to guy's point, could screw it up i don't think they're going to screw it up. i don't think rates are going up that quickly i don't think they're happening that -- i don't think they're going that high and i don't think they're going that quickly. i think if you're buying financials based on rates, you should be a seller of financials if you think just because trump is going to get someone in besides yellen, that's the reason why rates go higher i think you're wrong i think rates stay where they are right now. >> right so far it sounds like all you
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guys think the fundamentals of this bull market aren't too shabby if we're talking about the fed as a force that can end this bull market -- >> it's being called the greatest of all time on this show >> we ask the question is this the greatest bull market of all time? >> is it okay to call it that? let's be clear that the fed went out of their way, remember when woe were in the throes of the crisis, they had a strategy that was 10 and 10, they wanted the unemployment rate below 10% and the dow to 10,000. think of where we are on the extreme downside think what the fed and global central banks have been targeting. they've been targeting asset price, they've been targeting the wealth effect. they haven't necessarily been targeting global earnings. if you want to measure how great this bull market has been, what's it meant for the s&p in terms of earnings? where are we now we've had a pretty good run. at the same time a lot of that has been built off of financial engineering. guys in cleaning up their balance sheet, buying back
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shares there's a lot of questions about the quality of this. >> right now from this point forward -- >> it's three-quarters that we've had, maybe two and a half. we're comfortably saying we're on an earnings trajectory that's pretty good. revisions were a thing of regularity from 2014 to '16. >> corporate buybacks was a huge tailwind to the stock market that was the reason why stocks were moving higher and i don't think you can say that anymore i think now it's fundamentally based on on earnings, on balance sheet improvement. i think the world looks like a safer place. and the stock market reflects it >> all this said, what can you buy now? >> well -- >> i mean, that's really the question, right? what do you sell now what do you do here? >> i still think health care works. we've had this conversation seemingly for the last couple of weeks. tim has been on energy energy has given me no reason to
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doubt it over the last month or so and some of these big caps integrated names like exxonmobil, stalled seemingly now, very quietly a name like exxon has gone from 76 to 82 financials, goldman sachs bounced back nicely today. i still think financials are trading close to book, we've had that conversation. aerospace, all the things we've talked about continue to work. >> large cap tech. you have to ride the horse that got you here financials are probably a little bit extended here. materials, i think you're pretty safe industrials, you're pretty safe. large cap tech is where you want to still invest despite the worries about being overvalued >> if the world is this synchronized global growth, then what else do you want to be? do you want to be in energy, you want to be in oil? you take a look oil and gas exploration etf, trading at 33, 35, you know your stop-out is at 33 or roughly around that, in this range that to me seems like the no-brainer trade here.
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>> you prefaced that with if you are to believe this is a synchronized global growth story, which indicates to me you were not on that train >> so i believe whatever the market wants to believe. that's what i do i will go with that premise. however, one of my trading mantras is you never get hit by the bus you don't see. in these moments, bk is going to be looking for that thing nobody is seeing because that's how you make a little bit extra money. >> what is it? >> i don't know yet. i can't see it >> there's no question this is a global synchronize d growth, it comes back to valuations of either asset classes or companies relative to their history. do you believe they should be trading more expensive last night we talked to a credit suisse strategist saying the multiple right now should be getting higher for the s&p
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for some stocks it's lower for financials, guy talked about financials i think the financial sector what's long way to work themselves back to precrisis levels in terms of profitability. we're going to talk about bitcoin later in the show. if you can make global payments, the entire transaction business, significantly cheaper, the multiples on these names should be going higher. financials' good buy >> treasury secretary steven mnuchin things the rally is driven by something other than earnings this is what he said on politico >> there isno question the rally in the stock market has based into it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax ru cuts and tax reform done it also has baked into it optimism on regulatory relief, which they've begun to see and there's expectations to the extent we get the tax deal done, the stock market will go up higher there's no question in my mind
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if we don't get it done, you'll see a reversal of a significant amount of these gains. >> what is really driving this rally? tax hopes or earnings? maybe a little bit of both tony dwyer is chief market strategist, tony, welcome. >> it gave me a really good feeling to hear bk talk about a global synchronized recovery >> is the treasury secretary correct? >> i don't think he is >> if we don't get reform by the end of the year which is his own target >> the administration and the republican congress is responsible for some of it the global synchronized recovery that we're goofing around about has been in place, we've been talking about it on the show for the last year and a half once you came out of that february 2016 near collapse of the global economy, it was really the ecb buying corporate debt kick started corporates in europe and you started to get this groundswell of activity. it was already in place but not
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yet showing up when the election happened what really the trump administration as well as congress, i don't think it's a personalized thing it's the non-negative. businesses now know that they don't -- they're not going to see higher regulation. they're not going to see higher taxes. it's not that the market's up and business spending is up because, oh, great, we're going to get a tax cut i haven't talked to a single portfolio manager that has actually changed their portfolio expecting a tax cut. >> it's negative news in the future that helping to keep stock prices high. >> correct you've had increased regulation and now you have industrial companies that can open up the capital spending spigot, you can have increased productivity. >> you talked about it, you were correct, i'm not trying to be cute, is there a chance that the "y" in synchronization turns into an "i" and central banks "sync" this recovery see what i did there >> wow
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>> they're 100% going to sink the recovery s-i-n-k. >> thank you >> everybody is sick of my yield analysis, but the fed will invert the curve in the third quarter of next year it will come up to the fed expectations because we have a good global economy, we have increased capital spending, increased household median income and fiscal stimulus those four headwinds are tail winds. the mean inversion lasts 15 months you come out of the inverse three months out of recession, two and a half years away from the earliest recession you could get. the market peaks prior to recession. we could make the top as the fed hits the brake
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typically that happens with the yield curve, you get a hit, you have to buy it that's the differentiator for me now, you're going to get a hit >> why would you have an inverted yield curve in the third quarter of next year and how do you know when to step aside at that point? >> you know you have 15 months the shortest inversion is nine months, the longest was 19 less cycle. you know what your time frame is and what to look for what do you look for there's the the chicago fed national financial conditions index, three indices that measure stress indicators and credit look at credit it always comes out in credit, typically money market credit. it's going to happen when it does, it's going to get nasty. so the fed is going to hike, it's going to sink, s-i-n-k, the whole thing, right wrong. credit intensifies when the fed is raising rates
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>> you have to lever it. >> even more that's what happens until you invert it. >> tony, good to see you, thanks for coming by. what do we do today? >> i bought overstock.com. i'll tell you the reasons why later in the show. >> what a tease. that's what they call it in the tv business. tim? >> i didn't do anything. it's an environment where i'm watching the dollar. there's been softness, some of the material names are steel stocks i've been trading with. i do think you're still waiting for follow-through on, in the case of steel, some trade and some other issues for these companies. but i don think the dollar sensitivity is giving people an opportunity to buy weakness. that's what i'm looking for in emerging markets >> that's what i'm looking at. you saw the dollar rally up the last a couple of weeks it looks like it's stalled here. i don't know if it's short term weakness, let's call it a couple of weeks of weakness here which should be good for materials
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it should be good for oil, oil and exploration. those are the places you want to look at over the next couple of weeks. >> unitedhealth, we talked about that the other night, an all-time high in that name despite the president's and administration's rhetoric against these names, the stocks are trading well we talked about the potential for diminishing returns, it seems to be playing out before our eyes coming up, we're following all the after hours action american express volatile after announced the departure of long time ceo ken chenault, we'll tell you what warren buffett said police tim sloan speaking to cnbc in an interview that had all of wall street talking later, bitcoin tumbling today but still well over $5,000 what's the crypto currency really worth we'll have an unusual way to break that do you know much more "fast money" still ahead. zar: one of our investors was in his late 50s right in the heart of the financial crisis, and saw his portfolio drop by double digits.
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it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. when this bell rings... ...it starts a chain reaction... ...that's heard throughout the connected business world. at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions, by sensing cyber-attacks in near real time and automatically deploying countermeasures. keeping the world of business connected and protected. that's the power of and.
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welcome back to "fast money. an earnings alert on united, higher in the after hours session. phil lebeau is in chicago with the details. >> reporter: hi, melissa there were not too many
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surprises in this earnings announcement but they beat the street by a fairly handy, wide margin the impact of hurricane harvey is going to get some attention here $185 million, that's how much it cost the company and its passenger revenue for available seat mile, that's the metric people focus on. it was down 3.7% for the quarter, largely because of what happened with hurricane harvey that said, when you take a look at united and all of the airline stocks, the focus is, do they turn the corner in terms of passenger revenue, and perhaps see a next leg of growth in 2018 that's what we're increasingly hearing from people within the industry, that they feel like these airlines are just about to turn the corner in that regard we're going to be talking with oscar munoz, ceo of united airlines, tomorrow exclusively on "squawk box," not only about the third quarter about also
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about the fourth quarter and whether there is a next leg of growth for airlines. >> what will drive that growth domestic revenue, international? >> reporter: it's the domestic revenue and sustained revenue growth everybody says they've got sustained profitability. that used to be the question, how were these guys going to be performing through up and down cycles most people are saying, look, i think they'll be okay even if there's a down cycle in the economy. the question is on this passenger revenue per available seat mile domestically, do they see that grow substantially in the fourth quarter, into the first quarter and into 2018? >> all right, phil, thanks, phil lebeau in chicago. >> these numbers are great united's last numbers were great. if you think about it, everything phil said, it's about the perception that these guys will be profitable now it's how will they grow
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their business is the bar higher? yes. except for the fact that the earnings multiple have gone number i don't think it's time to sell it even though i think it was, three months ago >> listen, they better increase their revenue, they better come up with what everybody is expecting because these charts look horrible. every single one of them -- don't get me wrong, i'm no carter worth, but to my eye they're starting to form a head and shoulders top. they better have some fundamentals behind them or you're going to have some problems >> i don't think ual looks terrible on a chart, i don't think delta looks terrible on a chart. the one that looks terrible is spirit it's been thrown out, it's been hit, it's been thrown out of a window, it's down 40%. it popped the other day 7% i think that's the contrarian play, save, s-a-v-e. >> you were on the spirit committee, weren't you >> of course i was >> he knows what i mean. >> that was a big committee to be on. we all were not jocks like you
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and doing great things on the gridiron >> is it cheerleading? >> the spirit team >> that type of thing. i'll go ual. to tim's point, 9 1/2 times forward. they probably have etf growth of 9% it is bouncing i understand what bk is saying here but they said pricing is stabilizing, not getting worse to me that's a key i think it goes higher from here >> let's switch gears. wells fargo ceo tim sloan sitting down with us after what's been a rough year for the big bank >> the reason that it's taken so long is because we wanted to make sure we did a very thorough and comprehensive look in the fourth quarter, we promised that we would go back and look at nearly eight years of accounts that were open 165 million accounts, because we wanted to ensure all of our stakeholders including our customers that we were doing the right thing with them. we contacted 43.5 million of
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them in the fourth quarter we've said, look, if you have any issues, come in and see us i do think the worst is behind us >> the stock is down about 3%, one of the worst performing in 2017 steve? >> he has tremendous headwinds ahead of him >> in the form of what >> just stock price. i think it's a headwind in perception so it will be avoided for the perception alone the worst might be behind him, but the stock price still thinks they have more headwinds as far as a perception issue versus any real tangible issue. >> we talked about this on "4 lunch" earlier, the stock is already at a discount. >> you were yelling. >> we were engaging in an intellectual conversation. >> the first six months was an atrocity i've got to believe the worst is behind them. if there are any more headline
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risks, it's devastating. i don't think you're going to get it people have very short memories. i understand what steve is saying, but you know what, they're going to pile in and say, you know what, it's behind wells fargo, the trade is around the rest of the banks, let's get in the name. it's down 3% where citi is up 20, bank of america is up 22 i'm not saying it's going to catch up to them but it will go higher >> they used to trade at 40% to citi bank. for obvious reasons in terms of perception, but in terms of their business model, if you want the kind of leverage to the global economy, their core business, first of all, is either on the lending side, commercial lending side or on the asset management side. you're seeing some of those fees contract a bit i would rather be in the banks that don't have a regulatory -- >> part of that premium was based on the fact that they were best in class. that goes away forever
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i don't know if the premium ever enters the stock again >> it may not. but between here and a premium is a pretty good rise. there's going to be a period of time here where there's no tape on, no headline news, and everybody is going to finally think one day, you know what, the worst is behind them, time to get back in and again, maybe you don't get that premium, you want to be levered to the global growth story, you want to be in a city bank but wells fargo is not horrible here ahead, ken chenault, the manwarren buffett said was the gold standard for ceos we'll bring you tell latest details. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in money worldwide here's what's coming up on "fast money. it's the question investors have been asking all year.
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>> to be or not to be. that is the question >> no. the question is, exactly how duvado you value bitcoin? we'll explain when fast returns.
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i can't wait for her to have that college experience that i had. the classes, the friends, the independence. and since we planned for it, that student debt is the one experience, i'm glad she'll miss
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when you have the right financial advisor, life can be brilliant. ameriprise welcome back to "fast money. as the bull market rages on, there are still stocks with a lot of potential upside according to average analyst price targets. a man with a lot of upside in our book, dom chu is live in our headquarters with more >> reporter: thanks, ellhe wil like to think i haven't peaked
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yet and still have some upside there are around 80 index members that have average prices that imply 15% moves higher in the coming months. many of these stocks have been in more medium to longer term down trends. satellite tv operator dish network's shares have fallen by 14% this year. analyst target prices, yes, they've come down but not by that much, at least not yet. foot locker stock has lost over half its value this year target prices have been cut but they still imply a possible 34% move higher if target prices are met. allergan is down 10% year to date, 20% lower in its 52-week high analysts predict a 37% move higher those shares have been hit hard the last few days on some of those concerns over drug patent strategies among other things. not all the trends have been negative shares of western digital up on
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the year and analysts still think there's 32% upside that's not the same as targets can't and won't be cut but there's bullishness on certain names in the s&p back over to you guys. >> thank you, dom. dom chu at headquarters. would you pick up any of these stocks trading at these discounts? >> here's what you have to decide in this are the analysts behind the curve, something bad happened, business model changed and the analysts are behind the curve and they're going to cut their price targets? or are they missing something better on the upside so of all these, i think western digital probably fits the "they might be missing something on the upside" and they might upgrade the stock. >> this is the one that's above. >> it's still got 32% upside according to the analysts. >> i'm sorry, ultimately this is a stock that at least to me is performing in an environment, i think you're right, because when i think about foot locker and i think about dish, these are two
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companies that really are looking in the mirror and asking existential questions about what they do. >> like a foot locker, am i necessary in the future. >> exactly nike's problems, in they're having problems, foot locker is having bigger problems >> i don't think you can buy allergan i think the headline risk for them needs to wash out a little bit more western digital, i do like it, to tim's point, this one has performed so i don't know if we're breaking new ground there. dish, i have a problem with. i would think they need a part a partner, something to shake it up foot locker, the competitive landscape, i think think they're in a quicksand spot to this day. >> remember we had craig moffett on, we talked about dish, he was really worried about the prospects for dish >> he's been really right too. >> really right, craig moffett, we should have him on more
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often. >> why the extra -- >> dictation ion is very import. >> he's in the top ten >> with all the rest of them foot locker bottomed out in september. the stock went from 50 to 30 in a day and a half it felt like it flushed everybody out. now it's rolled back over. direct to consumer not good for them we went through the other names. the only name that sort of he is rest natures wi resonates with me, western digital. i don't think they've been commoditized quite yet if you made me pick, would you rather, rather, rather >> why are you creating a game where there was none >> that's what we do >> but if you had your druthers, which this is not a game by the way, would you pick up any of them >> no. i do haiku, i can't count si
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syllab syllables. >> it's hard to do it ad libbing. american express announced the departure of its long time ceo, we'll bring the latest and are things finally turning around for the beaten down stock "mad money's" jim cramer sat down with the ceo, we'll bring you the comments the new new york. starting with advanced manufacturing that brings big ideas to life. and cutting-edge transportation development to connect those ideas to the world. along with urban redevelopment projects worthy of the world's top talent. all across new york state, we're building the new new york. to grow your business with us in new york state visit esd.ny.gov.
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welcome back to "fast money. american express volatile after hours after announcing the departure of long time ceo ken chenault let's get to leslie picker at headquarters with the details. >> reporter: chenault plans to retire after 37 years at the company. he had been replaced as chairman and ceo by stephen squeri. his promotion is effective february 1st american express is midway through their conference call now. chenault praised squeri's digital acumen, another reason why the board chose him. >> and i'm delighted that i will be handing over the reins to someone who has played an important role in shaping the company that we are today. steve knows the business and the brand.
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he knows the marketplace he is an excellent strategist, a strong leader, and a great partner. >> reporter: chenault added that the succession process has been under way for five years they looked outside and inside the company. american express's stock moved higher after the company reported earnings and revenue that beat analysts' expectations when news of chenault's departure hit, shares dipped into the red they've gone a little back up during the call. amex's largest shareholder warren buffett was optimistic about the move he said, quote, i've spoken with steve and have been hearing about him from everything i've heard, he's absolutely the right person for the job he knows the business, has a great track record, and appreciates what makes american express special. two years ago value act led by jeff oven took a $1 billion stake. he reportedly sold out about a year later because the firm wasn't convinced that amex could
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make the changes needed to produce shareholder return the company lost a major partnership with costco. chenault said today that the company is nearing the end of its two-year turnaround, melissa. >> leslie, thank you leslie picker back at headquarters a little early there, because a lot of the gains were in the past year. >> yeah, yeah. listen, this has been an absolute monster it was at one point left for dead after they lost the costco deal, people were questioning whether or not they could actually survive, what they could do in this environment with everything changing that being said, with ken chenault leaving, you've inserted some your honor certainty. ken is at a two-year turnaround, they completed that, what's next i think the market is going to be asking that it's going to be a prove-me stock. i'm not saying it will fall apart. but definitely a prove-me stock that i would rather buy on dips. >> i say it falls apart. if you look at the long term chart on visa and mastercard, those are smooth charts.
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visa, up year to date 38%. mastercard, 41%. american express, 23 or so if you look at the chart, it's mountains, it's peaks, it's valleys. millennials don't like this product. this is more expensive there is going to be a problem the irony is there's a problem with millennials with costco and with american express. >> i have a question this may be a basic question should we compare american express more to the likes of a discover financial, in terms of being credit card issuers as opposed to payment processors? >> i think so. i think so >> and so should we be worried about increased delinquencies? they are are historically low, but the banks reported their most recent earnings, they're putting aside more money for potential losses on the credit card side. >> i'm less concerned about that than their not being a digital platform in the same way that they'll be competing with a paypal or someone like that. the consumer side, the
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delinquencies is something that frankly, so far it's much more difficult environment, they've proven not to be vulnerable to >> provision for losses, $769 million. the street was looking for less than $600. that's a warning sign. bk mentioned the end of a two-year as well this is one we actually collectively got right 2015 was a terrible year i remember saying if we hold 55 in american express, chance for a double bottom, guess what, go back and look at the beginning of '16, bounced around $60 we started warming up. now to steve's point, we're topping out right where we topped out, right before the whole costco news came down the pike in the middle of 2014, late 2014 what does it mean? it's not expensive on valuation. it's not cheap i do think the stock might roll over a little bit here >> i'm not talking my own book here do you know who they should buy? rhymes with "air."
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>> square. >> bang. they get a whole new exposure. it becomes more of a digital approach it becomes a more kitschy, more millennial experience. and like i said, i'm long. square is up 130% year to date >> earnings and payment space, tim's fast pick stock from yesterday, paypal, is set to report tomorrow. options traders are betting for a big move let's get to mike khouw in austin >> reporter: the markets are implying a move of 4% by the end of the week, in line with historical averages. we saw more than two times the ambling daily call volume today ahead of their earnings. the most affect where the january call they were buying 75, paying about a dollar five for those, over 2700 times. those are bullish bets if paypal could rally about 13% by january expiration, i think that's an interesting way to play it. because like is true in many spaces, the options premiums are relatively low here compared to how much the stock has been
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moving that makes it a good bet, especially considering how much this stock has rallied so far year to date >> guy, what did you call tim yesterday, what animal musk rat >> no, no. 1938, there was a movie that came out based on a novel -- >> i did not ask this question >> you asked for it, mel >> i did not ask for this. >> i said, pete, what gives a musk rat his musk? and he said, courage and i said, that's what tim has for doing this ahead of earnings >> so the answer is musk rat >> i appreciate that the bottom line is this stock has run massively in earnings. does it deserve a 30 times multiple payment in venmo is being rolled out. people are underestimating the power of it. >> thanks for that, mike check out the full "options action" show friday 5:30 p.m. eastern time bitcoin is surging 470% this year what is it really worth? we'll tell you one method for valuing the crypto currency.
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plus ibm surging today after the report we'll tell wt u hayothe cfo had to say about big blue's future much more "fast money" still ahead. i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade.
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welcome back to "fast money. bitcoin taking as much as 9% earlier today after the federal trading commission declared oversight over bitcoin derivatives, the crypto currency facing regulation in other parts of the world as well could this signal trouble ahead for bitcoin? when you talk to a lot of the biggest bulls, yourself included, they say regulation could be the thing that squelches it even if it's just temporary. >> it could be listen, i think regulation done the right way would be okay. in other words, what the big fear out there is, they're going to come out and ban it like what china did, right that's the big fear. as long as regulators and the cftc came out and said, listen, some of these things are commodity so this comes under our jurisdiction, that gives the market clarity, which would be a good thing that's why we reversed today, we're back up to 5500. for me, regulation equals
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clarity, is a good thing for bitcoin. >> isn't the argument, though, that you can't ban it. what are you going to start throwing computers out the window bottom line is there is no banning it i think it just forces a period where they need to clarify, which is what you're saying. there is no banning. >> and i would actually argue, with bitcoin regulation, you actually have a lot of regulatory arbitrage going on, if one nation state bans it, it pops up stronger in other nations, so you have a game of bitcoin whack ahole going on >> you might be thinking, who is this guy who is joining our conversation a partner at placeholder capital, he's come up with a way to actually value bitcoin. that's why he is here joining on this discussion. the trouble that a lot of people have, they see a 9% pullback in bitcoin. they're like, is it time to buy? with the stock you can say, the
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pe is this, compared to historical pes, it's worth buying now how do you do this >> the hard thing with crypto assets is they don't have cash flows. stocks are valued based on earnings, often. so it's a multiple of earnings with bitcoin, it's actually a transactional medium you have to value it as a multiple of transactional volume this is the idea of the network value to transaction volume ratio comes into play. >> we just showed a graphic saying 50 times is the magic number here. what is the network value, what is a transaction what is the pneum rate ee numerd the denominator in this? >> in terms of this 50 times, what that informs us is, okay,
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if bitcoin has transacted, say, a billion dollars' worth of value in the day, if it's trading 50 times, you would expect its network value to be $50 billion. right now, bitcoin is in this 80, 85 range historically we've seen it likes this bounce around 50. it will go beneath that but bounce above it. this is just giving us some basis in terms of its value. >> does that mean it's overvalued right now >> right now the market is paying more than it historically has for the transactional volume that it provides >> and so on this, we look at pes, and you can look at different sectors and say citi group trades at xpe. how precise can you get with this pe ratio in the bitcoin world? >> it's early days, we all know that for bitcoin, we're less than a decade in brian and i are out there pounding the table on this regularly. it's not overly precise. we have to start to put together
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valuation techniques in order to have some relative basis over time so i expect this to become industry-wide in terms of looking at all the different crypto assets of which we now have over a thousand >> i think the question that everybody wants -- so if it's going to be 50, what price does that imply >> so right now, what you have to look at with this is where is transaction volume going, right? the market is pricing this asset largely based on what will its future utility value be. if we look at bitcoin, first half of 2017, the daily transaction volume was roughly 400 million. in 2016, it was roughly 150 million. so it more than doubled. if you continue to follow this trend, let's say it grows roughly 60% for the next five years. that implies a 10x over the next five years if you buy into this idea, hey, the utility of this thing is transacting value, if that value transacted is going to grow 10x over the next five years, you would expect the price to do
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something similar. >> i don't know if you -- we broke it down, it sounds very cerebral when you break it down, but getting back to the regulatory environment, i think you're going to see more regulation and every time you get a hint, a whiff of any type of regulation, the bitcoin sells off. so to me, you need -- you're sort of damned if you do, damned if you don't you need more regulation to have a ubiquitous environment for bitcoin. but the more ubiquitous it becomes, i think that people like it for a certain reason, for a certain value. and regulation overlaid on it is not the value that people are looking for. >> i get in trouble. >> we're out of time >> that's why i asked the question >> okay. chris, thank you >> thank you chris burniske of placeholder capital. still ahead, ibm seeing its best earnings in 15 years.
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has it finally tneurd a corner we'll hear from the company's cfo and "fast money" returns hi, i'm the internet! you know what's difficult? adulting... hi, guys. i'm back. time to slay! no,i have a long time girlfriend. you know what's easy? building your website with godaddy. get your domain today and get a free trial of gocentral. build a better website in under an hour.
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welcome back to "fast money. a news alert on gilead let's get to meg terrell >> reporter: the fda has just approved gilead's newly acquired cancer drug. the drug is for non-hodgkins lymphoma it's an almost $12 million acquisition of kite pharma earlier this year. this is the second in a new form
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of immunotherapy cancer drugs where you take a patient's own cells and modify them to better detect cancer, then giving them back, a one-time treatment gilead has announced the price, in the united states it's going to be $373,000 now, that probably soults a lot but novartis' drug approved earlier this year, they priced at $475,000, guys, so we're watching gilead, they're up about 1% in after hours on this news >> did you say it was a one-time treatment? >> reporter: that's right, they take the cells out, fix them up and give them back it is designed to be a one-time treatment. >> wow meg, thanks, meg terrell guy adami, they had one-time treatments for their hep franchise. and it was amazing for them. >> it was amazing until it wasn't amazing, it forced them to make this deal. now, if they had -- if kite's drug had failed this, it would have been catastrophic to the stock. getting this approved is not
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nearly as positive as the negative would have been however, what does it mean it starts, it pushes forward the fact that the science works. we've talked about some of these names. ju juno, for example, is an amazing story, and others in this space. it's good for gilead but better for other companies in the same space. >> the ibb is up 27% year to date, gilead up 11% year to date gilead is one of the top four holdings you have biogen, amgen, celgene, gilead, that's the top four in the ibb. i would rather buy the ibb instead of worrying about a binary outcome for one of the constituents of the ibb. ibm surging 10% today, its biggest post earnings news in 15 years. the cfo spoke to jim cramer moments ago. >> what our shareholders tell us is, look, you guys have reinvented yourselves so often,
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we bought a reinvention, we're happy with the business model when you deliver it, keep working towards the business model, if you have to invest, please invest. >> are you a buyer of this reinvention? >> ibm got this move where you go from bad to being not so bad. the question is can they keep the software momentum going into the fourth quarter the transaction processing was a bright spot. they've had a couple of quarters now in a row of sequential growth it's a much, much better story i wouldn't chase this kind of a move on ibm. >> ibm was one of my final trades last week yeah, i have to put my money where my mouth is. >> and pat yourself on the back. >> exactly i'll pull a muscle doing that. i do think it's a turnaround the fact that ultimately once they can start to monetize watson, once they're doing a lot in the blockchain space, obviously i like that. i think ibm is one of those companies that might be misunderstood at this point in time i would buy it >> catch the full interview with jim cramer on "mad money," top nt,in tr 60.
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fidelity. ♪ can i kick it? ♪ yes you can ♪ can i kick it? ♪ yes you can ♪ can i kick it? ♪ yes you can ♪ well i'm gone gilead shares climbing 4% after hours after the fda approved its treatment for lymphoma, we'll be watching that stock in tomorrow's session. tim? >> nike earns their way out. investor is a catalyst >> here is a specific oil pick, valero >> overstock.com, i bought it today, there's a blockchain,
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bitcoin angle to it. >> yankees up 1-0, mel >> health care too much to the downside thc. >> i'm melissa lee see you back at 5:00 for more "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cram america. other people want to make friends i'm just trying to make you money. my job, to educate and attach you. call me at 10800 -

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