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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  October 19, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT

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marketing messages together for come to our city or our area it doesn't have to be amazon >> i'm glad you say that, it's almost like an excuse for all these cities to say, hey, look at what we have to offer i still wonder how much they're going to get out of this i thought it was interesting, the seattle person on air earlier today said good riddance there's a lot -- >> and san jose said the same. >> michael, thank you very much. that does it for "closing bell" bell "fast money" starts now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," the one bad apple chart. apple having its worst day in two months a top technician is here to explain how bad it could get plus from bad to worse, it is the moment of truth for general electric, the worst performing dow stock this year, down 25% ahead of earnings tomorrow morning. we'll tell you if any of our
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traders are diving in. later, it's the stream network that has more viewers than hbo, cnn, netflix and hulu. the ceo of amazon's twitch is here to explain how it's dominati dominating the streaming space united airlines stocks sinking 10%, the worst in two years. oscar munoz' comments spooked investors. phil lebeau spoke to him earlier today on "squawk box." hi, phil >> reporter: melissa, two things killed united today, lack of clarity on what to expect next year, and the second are the comments of oscar munoz starting with us on "squawk box" regarding how far of a whole united is in relative to its competitors. >> i think the last few years, united dug itself a bit of a whole competitively. for us to dig ourselves out of that hole, we'll have to take a level of risk with regards to how we grow, where we grow, the
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type of investments that we make it's a deep hole we have to dig ourselves out of we're doing the right things for the long term. >> reporter: but they didn't give a whole lot of clarity on the conference call. here is the difference between united and delta in terms of their projections for the fourth quarter, profit margin, united says we'll be around 3 to 5% this quarter. delta, somewhere near 15%. passenger revenue per available seat mile, this is the benchm k benchmark, united expects to be down 1 to 3% this quarter, delta up 2 to 4% that's why the shares of these two airlines have really started to split basically since july and august there you see delta outperforming united i talked about the conference call more than anything on this call, when you listen to these analysts, it's not that it was a testy or contentious conference call it's that there was a lack of clarity from united's executives
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in terms of what to expect for 2018 and more than once, analysts said you want us to expect x, y, and z, but you're not giving us a whole lot of details about how you're going to get there. as you guys know, when you don't have a whole lot of clarity in terms of where you're going to be taking a company, if you can't provide that to wall street effectively, investors are going to get spooked, and that's what happened today >> especially when 2018 is right around the corner. phil, thank you, phil lebeau what does that mean for united, does this stock become a no-touch or do you buy the dip karen, you went through the transcript of the call, what did you think? >> it was painful, phil hit it on the head, their vagueness, their inability to answer the questions, that was obviously not well received, as it shouldn't have been. first they said, well, you know, the team has only been together a year, year and a half. prior calls, i think they made us think, all right, the team's really all working together.
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it was very disappointing that they couldn't give any kind of guidance or enough guidance on cost so the margins are -- you know, it's an improving margins story. they couldn't give us a lot of comfort on costs when they need to improve to get to that margin improvement. that vagueness is really painful to hear. also trust me. literally he said "trust me, we're working on this, we'll have something for you." you would think earnings would be a good time to have something for shareholders, for analysts to look at it was very painful. the thing so interesting, painful because i'm long all the airlines, this one also, i bought some during the day and then sold it, i think that we'll see analysts downgrade it or step back. probably the three-day rule applies here, if you want to try to bottom fish it. but i don't know i was very, very disappointed.
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and -- >> it's down 12% >> most important, they were down 12%, and so often when you see something with good comps, the other comps are down meaningfully that didn't happen here, they were down 1%, the market was down, but 1% is nothing. this is a very idiosyncratic problem for them >> it was a question about costs per available seat mile, they're increasing capacity. a lot of things you don't necessarily want to hear in terms of improving your margin >> what's today, melissa it's the 19th of october >> yes >> nine days ago was 10th of october. >> yes >> why do you mention that, guy? >> i don't know, what happened on october 10th? >> united airlines had an investor update. they said some pretty good things and their report, their quarter yesterday sort of backed up a lot of things. kudos to brian kelly, by the way, who was skeptical mr. munoz, who i'm sure is a lovely man, has had a rotten six
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months my question was, he just said they dug themselves a whole over the last two years two years is a long time where was that we dug ourselves in a whole nine days ago he didn't mention anything about holes for two years. >> small or large. >> trust me. why? >> you talked about messaging. the stock was down 12%, ten days ago they had an investor meeting. adobe had an investor meeting yesterday, they raised their guidance they're stock was up 12% they reported a few weeks ago. the way you do this, mr. munoz, and give us a call if you want to do this, you usually save a little something for the next meeting or so. in the case of adobe, that stock sold off 4% on december 19th, up 12%, new all time highs. you don't drop a bomb on the earnings like this, because then you lack a little bit of credibility. so to me -- >> you lack a lot of credibility. i think the next question here is, should we question mr. munoz, should we question --
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>> to guy's point -- >> he obviously can't communicate with the street properly >> i trying to he with everything that you just said. those are all valid questions. that's what the street is going to ask it seems as if the treat was caught blind, to guy's point if you look at the rest of the space, even though it had collateral effect on the rest of the airline space, this is something that's unique, quote unquote, to this stock so i wouldn't think it's going to -- the weakness you're seeing in the other airlines is a buying opportunity, in my opinion. this one you have to let it breathe because there's a lot of stuff we probably don't know as well >> would you want mr. munoz, would you want him to leave? >> no, no. remember, the first 24 hours of the disastrous customer service situation over the summer, they handled it absolutely terribly they quickly had crisis management team, something or someone to advise them on how to deal with this maybe they'll do that a little bit here
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no, i think i would give him more time. >> first of all, that was in the spring, not the summer >> it was in april and i don't think there are many instances when airlines have to deal with dragging a customer off a plane. >> it was the response >> maybe they weren't used to that kind of crisis, that sort of really bad pr but this is bread and butter, guiding wall street, it doesn't take a genius to do, guy >> his instincts in april were miserable. anything he did in the aftermath to me was just cya stuff, not cool with g. swizzle or as i'm now known, q-tip on october 10th, if he didn't know everything he said today on october 10th, there's a problem. either he decided not to tell somebody or they didn't know neither one of those, by the way, is a good thing should he go he's on the tightrope. >> to melissa's point, maybe this does start to gather some steam here, where he does get shown the exit
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on this alone i can see why karen would say, no, i don't think so, let's have a little kid gloves on it but when you look at it in the bigger scheme of things, to guy's point, what he just said, either he didn't know and that was a bad thing, or he does know and he was lying >> if you look at it in the context, as you mentioned, karen, we had the screen up of delta margins, far better than united margins you made the point this is an idiosyncratic stop drck drop. >> the street will say, we're going to assume the worst and price that in. i don't know it really was bad. there are some things in there mixed that are worse asia, that was down. that's worse they've had some ultralow cost
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carriers come into their -- that's bad but this was worse than all of that >> it's probably a little too early in earnings season to say this shouldn't be extrapolated but i would broaden it out, the airlines is a pretty small part of the transport the transports are underperforming the s&p over the year if you look at the leadership, the fedex, ups, rails, truckers, they're acting well, they confirmed new highs on the s&p 500 for all intents and purposes united and maybe a couple of other airlines, i wouldn't be dismissive of the transports because they act pretty well >> celgene just reopening, let's get to meg terrell >> reporter: that's right, those shares of celgene are down after they announced their discontinuing of their crohn's disease drug, saying a data monitoring committee did a risk/benefit analysis and there weren't safety problems. that really implies the before
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you go just didn't work well enough for the company to continue developing it here. they say they're also looking at other programs with this drug. so the shares down about 6 3/4 percent there for celgene. >> sharp move, meg, thank you, meg terrell at headquarters. it's a buy, maybe. >> quick kudos to goldman sachs who yesterday said investors should rotate out of celgene >> because of the irritable bowel -- because of crohn's disease? >> i'm not certain if that was the case quickly, quickly, i'm not certain what they had factored into the crohn's disease in my opinion this is an overreaction in the aftermarket. >> night after night on this desk we see one of these blowups or you see the stock get dragged under, you look at the ibb that's still up 25% year to date, it lets you know you probably shouldn't be in a single stock, you should be in the ibb. because you get all these names without the individual risk of
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one name having an afterhours blowup like this coming up next, talk about a bad apple. the stock getting crushed among reports of slowing iphone 8 sales. a top technician weighs in twitch is the most watched network in the world, more than hbo, espn, even netflix. emmett shear is here and the moment investors have been waiting for after a dismal quarter general electric faces the music. we've got those tas en asmoy"eturnswh for your heart...
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welcome back to "fast money. wall street rebounding from a bit of a tech wreck today. the nasdaq was on track and ended the day slightly lower the market is barely giving you time to buy a dip. how will you know when that's not the case anymore, dan? >> when you get apple's guidance for iphones, reported november 2nd. that's going to be attorney. we know they obviously dominate
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a good deal of the profitability in the smartphone space. we know the smartphone space is growing at low single digits some of the rumors have been that the iphone 8 sales are light and then the capacity constrained on the iphone x when it comes out on november 3rd, the day after the results. then you should expect the whole space, the whole supply chain in smartphones to really have a tough go that being said, we know that semiconductor stocks, the smh is up 30%, apple is up 40%. there's not going to be any disasters here it's just how you start thinking about it into 2018 after a monster year that a lot of people didn't expect >> the problem is where do you go for growth? if you go out five years, you're probably not getting it from the tech so you're almost forced to go into these companies where apple, you probably see 12% growth, facebook upwards of 20, maybe 22, 24 google, 16 where are you getting that
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growth i think you're forced into these names. >> it's the idiosyncratic growth store, it has been all year. >> it's considered to have a moat, adobe. we've talked about seemingly for years, they rally, they report, sell off, a week later, all-time high listen, this is an extreme move today, but still, adobe is one of those names, red hat is another one we talk about. and you go to companies that have made the pivot in an elegant way. microsoft is one ibm is one that thinks they're doing it i don't believe that's the case yet. >> we mentioned apple, the one tech stock that did not come back today, fell 2%, its worst day in two months. our next guest says do not worry, this might be the perfect buying opportunity let's go off the charts with robert sluymer >> these tech stocks have been in big consolidations. the expression we're using is it's innocent until proven
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guilty the chart is broken, 50-day here, always a concern for folks. the 50-day has not been a major support level for this stock the 100-day has been much more important, that's around 153 this low down here is around 149, 150, a level where even if the stock gets down, you want to be looking at it the bigger picture is this stock is still in a big trading range. here is the 200-day. you want to be very careful at what positions you're looking at relative to the s&p 500. it still looks like the absolute price, it's still on a big up trend, working its way sideways. where the concern is, when you look at apple relative to technology, the technology sector, if you're a tech manager, this is probably not where you're hunting this is a name that looks like it's slowing down versus tech. but outside of that, for the absolute investor for the private client, we still like the name, we want to be buying
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the weakness it's not surprising that apple lags tech has been red-hot, it's been on this huge up trend, getting to the upper end of that range where it wouldn't be surprising to see a little bit of a pullback in tech but it's hard to be negative on the sector and the big cap names in that sector when you have such a strong performance profile overall we'll be looking in some other areas for new capital. tech still looks like it's leadership, the big cap names are going sideways and catching up with trend. >> do we invite rob back here? >> come on >> come on over, rob >> here we go. >> thanks, arielle based on that charting work, is right now the entry point? are we waiting for a lower channel? >> a gap down, a three-day rule, people panic in the short term between 153 and 150 is probably going to be a really good entry point on the name. >> apple versus the s&p, it is
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the biggest waiting in the s&p, right? >> right >> if you pull apple out and do it versus the rest of the s&p, what does that tell you? >> certainly recently, think about the surge you had in small caps from september through to where we are now that broad based rally, the equally weighted index will lag the larger cap indexes we're starting to see some of the financials participate a bit more i think that apple is going to start to lag a little bit here i don't know it's a major concern. again, if we look at the price structure, up, sideways, catching up with its long term trend, we want to be very careful getting too negative on a name like apple at this point. >> when you look at your numbers there and talk about the low 140s as ultimate support for the name, when i look back, i see the 200 day at 146 and change. >> exactly >> when you see the testing we've seen of the 100-day in the last couple of months, that's the been the support
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when you're not trading off the sexy growth name, you're trading off of the corporate repurchase, do you think think it gets below the 100-day? >> i think it gets down somewhere between 153, 149, 150. that's the level where the recent low will hold the two-day is down to 146 i don't think it gets there. >> rob, thanks, rob sluymer >> apple's cutting the demand for iphone, 8, 8s, x, from 10 '08 million, 6 million that's cutting it in half. bulls say people are waiting for the x, skipping 9. the bears will say, they're running into a problem, they've peaked iphone. i have no idea typically it doesn't hold the second time down in that quick of a time period if it does get down --
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>> there's a trading setup dan niles said he was playing into iphone. i play afterwards. if the company gave squishy guidance after giving strong guidance, if you see it back towards steve's 146, that's when you buy it we know that the iphone x, they're not going to have a whole heck of a lot of them. when you get into the supposed super cycle, this upgrade super cycle in 2018, and also expecting 20% eps growth, this company has not done that in two years. if they can get back to those levels, it will earn the expansion it's gotten. you want to see them pull back, you want to see them optimistic about other products coming out. and there's x. microsoft is at an all-time high right now. >> it's no man's land right now until the x comes out in a couple of weeks? >> the stock is down 5% from recent highs, up 5% from recent lows to me it is kind of a no man's
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land if you see it with a 140 handle, that's when people will back up and check it out paypal hitting an all-time high, that conference call is under way right now. we'll bring you the details. i'm melissa lee. you're watching "fast money" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. meanwhile, here's what's coming up on "fast. ♪ we bring good things to life >> except if you happen to own shares which have been in the gutter for the last two decades. and tomorrow could be a major turning point. we'll tell you how to profit we like to watch >> and the kids like to watch twitch, which has more viewers than hbo, hulu, and espn combined the ceo will tell us just how d ch bigger it can get anthe stocks are going along for the ride, when "fast money" returns. that are developing powerful batteries that make everything from cell phones to rail cars more efficient. which helps improve every aspect
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the amazing new iphone 8 is at at&t... and we know you'll love it. because we know you want more. more great camera features and more power. and more than just unlimited data, we give you unlimited plans with hbo included for life. because you deserve more entertainment. and more spokespeople. talking like this, saying the word more. at&t. it's time for more. am i too close? i feel like i'm too close. get the iphone 8 and with all at&t unlimited plans, get hbo for life. only from at&t. welcome back to "fast money. gamers are taking over the online world of video with their huge fan basies
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they'll attend the super bowl of streaming, twitch con. beautif julia boorstin is in l.a. with the game plan, ha ha >> reporter: ha ha watching people playing videogames is a massive trend, no laughing matter amazon twitch has 50 million daily active users each watching an average of 106 minutes each day. they're tuning in to watch content created by 2.2 million players each month, like cutie pie, who has millions of followers watching him play "league of legends." in addition to the free twitch experience there is also a twitch prime service, which includes premium content and is available to amazon prime and prime video subscribers. this weekend, twitch is gathering creators and fans for
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twitch con, an annual conference which starts at the long beach convention center. last year it sold 35,000 daily passes for the event after amazon bought twitch in 2014, google invested in building up its alternative platform, youtube gaming according to super data research, youtube's gaming audience is even bigger, reporting that 563 million people watch youtube's gaming content compared to 212 million people who watch on twitch over the course of last year. there's no question that this trend is massive gaming video content has an audience of 665 million people worldwide with ads and direct consumer spending pushing the revenue for the category to $4.6 billion estimated this year. video game giants are looking to jump into this game as well. activision partnered with twitch to help live stream its e sports events >> thank you, julia. julia boorstin in l.a.
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how much bigger could twitch get? let's hear from the man behind twitch himself, emmett shear, the founder and ceo of twitch, coming to us from the company's first ever developer day in long beach, emmett, thanks so much for joining us >> thank you for having me >> this is a fascinating space for us the conventional wisdom about gamers is they're young kids, they live in their parents' basement, they don't have any money. almost the opposite is true. high female representation, 46%. high average income, $58,000 in the united states. how are you drawing this kind of audience >> i think that twitch draws an audience of everyone who loves videogames and more than loves videogames as we've expanded outside of videogames, anyone who loves live entertainment >> people are actually watching this as if they were watching live sports? >> very much so. i think anyone who understands
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the appeal of watching live sports or even anyone who understands the appeal of watching the cooking channel should understand what's fun about watching someone do something with a high level of skill. that's really what twitch offers, is a window into the people who are the best in games or the best at whatever they do, streaming live >> this whole area is in its infancy. i would imagine you would agree with that. what are some of the ways in the future where you can further monetize this audience, that does seem like a very desirable demographic? >> i think that this absolutely is a growth area we very much are at the starting line for growing live streaming on the internet. one thing we introduced today, speaking of monetization, is our new extensions platform. it's live apps for live streams. so they're a way to deploy javascript apps instantly for everyone watching the stream what we announced today was
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in-app purchases for extensions. i would say it's not even going to be us figuring out how to monetize live stream, it will be the third party developers on our platform >> people have limited time to watch anything these days. >> you hit the nail on the head. we're in the entertainment industry so any competing entertainment that takes people's time is in the end competing with twitch for that attention but when we think about competition, we think first about our community. twitch has a value, streamers first. it's a really important value, because we start from our customer, the creator. and we ask what they need. we'll absolutely look to competition if we think that that competition is providing better service to streamers in some way and we'll try to ask how can we do better we don't pay attention to the
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competition, we focus on what's right for our customer >> we just showed a graphic showing the number of viewers on twitch compared to some of the other networks principals, espn, 90 million you've got 185 million you don't think in your head the appetite for live entertainment eats into a channel like an espn >> i think that everyone providing entertainment is in competition, whether it's movies, sports, tv shows, live streaming. it's funny clips of cats at the end of the day people only have so many hours to consume entertainment. frankly, everyone watching this show right now could be watching twitch instead we're in competition with you. >> we'll leave it there, emmett, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you >> emmett shear of twitch. i know there's some skeptic here on this desk >> i believe it's real i just -- >> you saw the numbers
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incredible >> it makes me think why don't someone want to buy them for growth >> amazon in 2014 paid a billion dollars for it since 2014 we've seen periscope flame out. we've seen facebook live flame out. for all intents and purposes, they're not existing to watch you game or anything like that he just told us there's numbers of different revenue streams, in-app purchases, subscriptions, 15 million daus. to me it shows where amazon's team are thinking about growth and how to interconnect. >> the yankees madean investment in these sports today, robert kraft has an investment in these sports these guys are adding validity to it. but when the average person at home says how do i trade it, activision is up over 73% year to date, electronic arts is up 43%. >> it's a tough way to play it those guys invest millions, hundreds of millions of dollars
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to make games to have hits just like the movie studios do. these guys are piggy backing off that, they can create a community out of most successful games. to me this is the one you want to be, if you can find someone doing it like this >> who is twitch direct -- we've had hbo and others, havebut i mn more in a -- >> i'm not sure there is one maybe the way to think about this is how it educates your view on other stocks that may be in your portfolio or that you may be looking at like a disney with espn. >> it's one more knock against disney >> the competition, nobody talks about this >> he was talking about golden state warriors, about his ownership in major league baseball, the dodgers, who are going to the world series, maybe. but he was more interested in electronic arts, the stock has rolled over about 7.5% over the
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last couple of weeks the report on halloween, october 31st, i'm sure i don't know the exact date, i'm sort of instructing you a bit here >> always changing >> 22 times forward earnings, given their growth, is not all that expensive coming up, paypal now up 80% this year. we'll hear from the c suite on what drove the quarter ge is the worst performing dow stock this year. traders are expecting more 'lteble ahead. wel ll you how low they see it going when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on paypal hitting a new all-time high in the afterhours session aditi roy is in san francisco with the latest. >> reporter: hi, melissa paypal shares surging in the after hours, 4% after posting those results. the company showing strong growth in customers and engagement the highlights include 218 million active customer accounts, beating expectations of 215 million that's an 88% increase year over year payment transactions coming in at 1.9 billion analysts had predicted 1.85 billion, another beat there. total payment volume was $114 billion. that beat expectations of $109 billion. the digital payments platform attributed the growth to an increase in mobile payments and
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venmo's share of total payments volume dan shulman also spoke about the company's news this week that it would expand venmo to 2 million u.s. retailers >> this is an important milestone for us, as we both add differentiated functionality for venmo consumers and begin to monetize venmo our existing paypal merchants are also excited to offer venmo as a way to pay on their sites >> reporter: paypal has beat on earnings all ten quarters since it's been a standalone company and nine out of ten quarters on revenue since it spun off from ebay it's had quite a run and it continues, melissa >> aditi, thank you, aditi roy in san francisco just the other day,this week i fact, tim seymour, a friend who usually sits here, pitched paypal he fast pitched paypal primarily because of venmo
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he's looking pretty good today >> do you ever watch the show, guy? >> he's here every night, i don't know if he watches it. dan, you didn't like it at that time have you changed your tune now >> you know i don't like tim listen, i'm a massive proponent of the online payment space. i've been behind this. i just didn't like it at $66.5 i think the story is pretty well-known, the stock is up. i don't see a great risk/reward to buying the stock. >> i guess that question that everyone always asks, what inning are we in in digital payments it's got to be early innings if it's still early innings, you buy paypal i'm in square. that's up 135% square is up 12% for the month there's something going on in the payment space where these numbers just seem to be knocking
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the cover off the ball i think square can be a target once again, i'm long it, not talking my book, but i am talking my book. >> paypal is maturing. if you look at it, for example, they're take rate was 2.84%. 2.95% in the second quarter. so they're maturing. margins are hanging in there those are all good things. at a certain point they'll run into a valuation problem given those numbers, we're not here yet we had the musk rat, we said it was courageous ahead of earnings i think you stay with it ge, if you think the stock might be turning a corner, you might want to take a second look why are we listening to the theme song of "santa barbara"?
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wilfred frost is talking to goldman's heavy hitters. >> reporter: it's not one i have a heai've heard, i have to admi. we're joined by goldman's heads to discuss m&a when "fast money" returns. [vo] quickbooks introduces jeanette
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23 companies make their debut this year, more than last year will the space continue to keep up wilfred frost is at the sixth annual goldman sachs builders and innovators summit for an exclusive interview. >> melissa, thank you very much. greg and john, thank you for your time. on the topic of ipos, we've got record closes almost by the day at the moment for the equity markets. the ipo issuance hasn't picked up what's held it back? >> if you look at volumes for the year, it's up 45%. last year was fairly anemic. but the volume has been pretty strong we've seen fewer large deals it's been much more smaller transactions most of the transactions have really done well
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mongodb this morning would be a good example of that >> in your last set of numbers, pretty impressive numbers coming, at a time, though, when credit spreads are starting to pick up. is that due to a bit of a correction, do you think >> the leveraged financial markets are strong we're later in the cycle, you have to be balanced about where we are if you look at the metrics, volumes are up considerably but not at record highs. spreads are certainly title eti but not as tight as they've ever been and actually credit metrics are stronger than they've been certainly precrisis, given where overall yields are >> the credit metrics are strong and banks' balance sheets are healthy. we've got 10% of the total risk on banks' balance sheets versus what we saw in the precrisis time >> greg, give us an update on the m&a market >> deal volumes year to date
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have been flat what's missing are big transactions into 2017 there was great enthusiasm, robust equity markets, cheap interest rates. and an environment of optimism around a business environment that would have tax reform, less regulation at the beginning of the year, our clients were ready for big transactions with the one caveat being they wanted clarity they wanted clarity on tax reform, would the tax rate be 25 or 15 or 10, would they get their cash back to be able to use on deals, who would sit in these regulatory seats to review these transactions they've been waiting and waiting and there's no clarity the lack of big transactions for the last six or nine months. out of the summer break, most of our clients have said, it feels like gridlock as usual in washington, we're not going to wait for clarity, we're getting back to business the pipeline of activity, particularly at the larger end, has picked up in recent weeks. >> it sounds like if we did get
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things like tax reform it would boost the economy, but things like debt issuance and m&a, as a talking point that could be removed. could that hinder debt issuance and m&a moving forward >> if you saw interest deductibility eliminated or reduced, we would watch that as a negative measure in terms of debt issuance. broadly speaking, a tax reform package that's pro business, pro growth, would be a good thing for all activity around the business climate >> we had a big update from harvey schwartz recently, selling the pitch going forward. in fixed income, goldman sachs used to be number one. he went through the points on how the firm has slid to 10% market share today and he said that that lead you used to have in 2009 wasn't really sustainable you are number one in investment banking. does the same argument apply >> no, it doesn't, it is and has
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been sustainable the competition has come across the board in our business. we've maintained number one market share and number one fee share across investment banking. as we think about the proliferation of boutiques, they've eaten into market share, not ours, but market share of the top three advisory firms, have largely stayed the same it's really been the second tier that has lost it our view is while there may be more advisers competing for mind share of our clients, as long as we continue to give good long term advice and build long term relationships, we'll continue to have the number one franchise. >> greg, john, thanks very much for joining us this afternoon. melissa? >> thank you very much, wilfred frost. the move of the day, the financials etf, xlf is up nearly 2% so far in october so what do we make of financials we've got a lot of the earnings out here, karen. >> they've been pretty bullish going into the earnings. so thankfully there weren't any big surprises. i'm hanging on to them dan, you did make your call
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several, maybe a month or so ago, the easier call was jp morgan to a hundred. >> as long as the stock market keeps going up i'm wrong a lot here >> you might be right this time. >> you're at 98. >> she's blushing. [ simultaneous speaking is. >> obviously best of breed, you know, this one is a lay-up, it's going there sooner or later. it went down to 85 after i said that too i just want to make one point. when you think about what we just heard from those two guys at goldman, listen, they're sitting on this perch, they're still number one in m&a. their stocks unchanged on the year >> which brings me to my question for guy adami do you think it is >> i don't know what it is >> it is goldman sachs or jpmorgan. >> goldman sachs
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an interesting question, their market share was down, harvey schwartz said it was unsustainable. the reason why it doesn't apply in my opinion is so much of that revenue is derived from proprietary trading, people making bets. guess what people don't make those kind of bets anymore the good news for the other industries or the other sectors of the bank is, they don't have to make bets a lot of this is fee-based stuff. that's why the answer is different. goldman sachs sells off after earnings, but that quarter was outstanding, if you really break it down. i think it goes higher from here ahead, ge's moments of truth. there were some big trades in mb of tions pits that raised a nuereyebrows today we'll give you the details when "fast money" returns impossible to ignore.
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welcome back to "fast money. check out shares of ge, up 2% ahead of its earnings report before the bell tomorrow john flannery replaced the long time chief back in august. shares of ge have tanked more than 25% since the beginning of the year, making at it worst performing stock on the dow. the number of recent shake-ups in the c suite and growing fears of a potential dividend cut, do you dare buy ge into earnings? >> it's interesting, options
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volume was really hot today, four times average daily volume. the applied move on tomorrow's earnings, about 3.5% versus fourth quarter average of 2 percent. this thing has been notching lower all year long. we've had a lot of news in the stock. just this week alone there was some trades that kind of caught some traders' eyes at the end of the day today, october 27th weekly put options, when the stock was like $23.65, more than 100,000 of them traded for 11 cents there was some stock bought against them, it's not clear it was an outright bearish bet. it's obviously very short term hard to make any judgments about that we're expecting a kitchen sink sort of guidance here. so maybe that's a disaster hedge, we would be shocked to see the thing go down to 21 1/2. >> out to december, do those options price in a cut of dividend >> i don't think so. it wouldn't be this soon
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that balance sheet would have to get stressed >> this for me, it seems like people are getting ahead of that trade. people want to see that kitchen sink event and people are saying, what's my risk to the downside because everyone that talks about the dividend being cut, talks about a $21 price tag. so plus or minus, you know, 21, maybe slightly below it. that's what they're talking about as far as if the dividend is cut so your risk/reward is stepping in front of those events and saying, you know what, i'm going to buy it and i'm playing it for that $2 spread right now and hopefully i'm right and i beat the rest of the guys to the dance. >> keith >> there's so much about them cutting the dividend, ifthey don't they could get a relief rally. you're seeing people squaring up for earnings before the bell tomorrow morning >> there's an investor day also. you have a double whammy potentially. >> you have a ual potential situation, not to bring them in. >> right >> this will be the best dog of the dow setup in 2018.
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you have new management, you know they'll be cutting costs. we have a ten-year chart look at where the '09 bottom touches the flash crash in 2015. it gets you to about 21 on a long term uptrend. i think if you're looking for an opportunity to buy the stock for 2018 in a turnaround here, you want to see the thing flush, it needs a capitulation >> check out the full "options action" tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time check out our interview with john flannery tomorrow morning this is his first since becoming chairman and ceo, 10:00 a.m. on "squawk on the street. up next, final trades. well, it's earnings season once again. >>yeah. lot of tech companies are reporting today. and, how's it looking? >>i don't know. there's so many opinions out there, it's hard to make sense of it all. well, victor, do you have something for him? >>check this out. td ameritrade aggregates thousands of earnings estimates into a single data point. that way you can keep your eyes on the big picture. >>huh. feel better? >>much better. yeah, me too.
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wow, you really did a number on this thing. >>sorry about that. that's alright. i got a box of 'em. thousands of opinions. one estimate. the earnings tool from td ameritrade.
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keeping the world of business connected and protected. that's the power of and. today marks the 30th anniversary of black monday when the dow dove 508 points, 22%, marking the biggest stock market crash in history guy was on wall street that day. we dug deep into the archives and found a picture of you from 1987 is that a mug shot what is it >> you might have been responsible for the crash. >> you got my picture, guess what i got, party girl, look at you in 1987. >> you're the short one, by the way. >> this is with katie tong, i wrote her a fan letter and she was kind enough to say come visit the set.
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look at my perm. >> pulte homes was green, phm. >> hain. >> celgene, too much, too much >> thanks fo my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you money. my job isn't just to entertain but to educate and teach you call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. pull-back. buy on

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