Skip to main content

tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  October 23, 2017 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT

12:00 pm
interesting because it was all about that forecast for the holiday season. >> yeah. wasn't watching that one, but -- it's all up to the kids now. >> yeah. >> hasbro was selling i think 9% of inventory was going through toys "r" us and we'll see how name packets the quarter as you said, we'll talk a lot more retail over the next few weeks. >> oh, yes halloween, thanksgiving. christmas, the best time of the year. >> let's get over to the judge and "the half. and welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner our top trade this hour, earnings palooza, what the busiest week of the season so far will mean for this record rally. can google, amazon, microsoft and so many more big names keep stocks climbing? with us for the hour, jim terranova, jim lebenthal, jon
12:01 pm
najarian many big names reporting as you can see on the board stock records set every day last week off to a pretty big day. 3-m, gm, boeing, coke, bristol meyers, american airlines, alphabet, amazon, intel, a full swath of names that can really tell the next direction of this move. >> an incredibly important week, and, unfortunately, i have bad news for the bears out there, and that bad news is that buybacks so far in the first half of 2017 are down 16% relative to the buybacks in the first half of 2016 now, authorizations are up nearly 20%, so even if you're getting a pullback in selective sectors or the overall market. those buybacks are coming in november before the end of the year, and it's going to buffer any pullback. >> josh, which names on this list are the ones that are going to matter the most that's sort of how we set up the
12:02 pm
conversation today >> i still think the texts are going to be the most meaningful for the overall averages just in terms of their sheer size and how important they become psychologically and tech in general is 21% of the market like the big five names are a big chunk as well. >> have to wait for thursday alphabet and amazon. got intel and amazon the very first day. facebook, amazon, google good slammed this weekend that they are facing an extension crisis ayla ibm in the '80s or microsoft in the '90s where they might never see multiple expansion again. these stocks are down 1% each across the board and yet the market still looks fine. it'ses >> reporter:ville. in fact, new highs for the xlf, another very important sector and take a look at semiconductors, by the way, new highs right now as i'm talking it's not that these three or four or six or whatever the acronym you're using this week it's not that these are so
12:03 pm
important to the market that the rest of the market can't act well if they act poorly. it's just that mechanically they represent a very big portion of index money and fresh cash. >> jimmy, tech is up 31% year-to-date. >> every time we mention tech, i'm thinking there's so many facets of text obviously most people in this environment want to talk about facebook, amazon, netflix, google that's fine. >> intel bought intel the last week or week before. >> that's where i'm going. it's not just intel. a lot of the old guard take a look at cisco systems today, set a new high since the tech telecom bubble. made an announcement of an acquisition. why does this matter because it's not just the -- the horsemen of the f.a.n.g. names is it's across the board in text there's a lot of cheap names outs there with a lot of cash on the balance sheet that they are putting to work. there are still some lag yards
12:04 pm
out there in tech that i think you can look at and say, maybe we ought to look at qualcomm as the next one that's going to break out. the big thing being that tech is a very, very broad section here. there's something for everyone. >> doc, does the leader, so to speak, get back to leading does tech justify the fact why it's gone up 31% year to date and there's still a lot of runway to go. >> i believe it does and to the gentleman's point, intel, oracle, microsoft, some of the older text, and i think they are going to continue to outperform. microsoft for the same reason we saw the move out of adobe. the month i subscription models through the cloud and so forth are fantastic revenue drivers over at mfrkts over at adobe i'm looking at a couple others i've got one of them for unusual activity today, judge, in the tech sector later on so i'll save that one. we've got a lot going on in this sector seagate, the partnership with baidu announced a couple weeks
12:05 pm
ago, seagate blew that out and this partnership is not any part of that. big data-mile-per-houring and storage, huge for these two companies. >> let jimmy take a victory lap on ge. surat, you can do the same they are reporting along with ford this week. >> and i don't disagree with anything you guys are saying about tech but gm will be really-degree to talk about the consumer and global demand for their auto, and i think what they have really done is to show people it's not an old-school company. if they can carry that on. 45 i think can go on to 55 or 60 because you're at seven times earnings with a 4% dividend yield, and i think you get a little bit of multiple expansion if management comes across this a little more confidently. >> is it a post-hurricane boon >> part of it. >> or do you need to hear more to know that the gains that the stock have gotten have a little more leg >> so the answer the to your question is you do need to see some price response to the earnings report which everybody, including me, is expecting to be good look, the last six quarters, they have blown this
12:06 pm
out. why should this be any different, whether it's car sales or what you alluded to with the hurricanes would project that the earnings numbers will be good taking a little bit of a page out of josh's playbook and follow the price action. i would like to see this earnings report confirmed in the price action in a way that it hasn't the last six quarters, surat, and i'm with you. you know you get the great earnings reports and it pops in the morning and dribbles down so i really want to see it hold the gains, but i want to answer your question directly. it's not just the hurricane. it's the partnership with lyft it's the moves that they are making in autonomous driving which, yes, they are not alone but certainly a vanguard in it, and we can frankly talk about tesla. gm has a very viable electric car. >> all right one reason the market may keep going up is there's no reason for it to fall in its note today the chief market strategist tony dwyer writes, quote, we keep looking for indications for what could go wrong sorry, folks, but only thing we can come up is there is nothing we can come up with.
12:07 pm
tony back live with us from new york city today. tony, it's that simple. >> i wish it were. it's not that simple it's pretty easy but it's not simple again, it goes back to what causes a peak or the peak. any time you're outside a recession and you don't have an inversion of the yield curve it's just a temporary position and, you know, we haven't had one for a while and it seems like we're overdue and that's been the case since january of this year. >> i almost feel like people got nervous a month ago or maybe three to four weeks ago and then now people are feeling pretty good about where you are we've got over 23,000 in the dow. now we're what, 23,3. >> yeah. >> don't you think the sentiment has sort of come back again towards the more bullish and sort of, you know, everything is feeling pretty good feeling? >> well, if i came out and said oh, my good, the vix is at 10 and the percentage of newsletter writers according to investors
12:08 pm
and intelligence is 60%, historically high. it a sounds so bad january 3rd, 2017 that that first happened show we've got to be very, very careful to say that it's going to end just because it's good. again, you know, my biggest mistakes are typically not buying too late. it's typically selling too early in my personal account so, you know, i think this is one of those times where we've got to be careful can the market pull back hell yeah. the question becomes how much upside is left in the rest of the cycle amend we see at least, you know, is a% 15% to 20% but could be too low if you get the tax legislation passed >> of the 15% and 20%, how much is taxes >> i disagree with people. warren buffett said he was adjusting the portfolio. i was in the midwest and met with dozens of institutional clients and i asked the question
12:09 pm
if you change your portfolio in anticipation of tax cuts either this year or next year and i didn't find a single person. >> you're saying the market can still go up 15% to 20% and can do that without tax reform >> i think it's going up at least 10% without tax reform let's put numbers. in our whole buy line is evidence over emotion, right, so if you actually go to a 20% tax rate, david aurelio at thompson did a study for us and found if you take individual companies earnings will if up for the s&p 500 operating earnings would go up 10.5% next year with a 20% tax rate and then the multiple will come down because the fed has to get more aggressive really, it hasn't so far so if you put 20 multiple on either our number of 140 or lift it to 160 on the tax cut, you're
12:10 pm
a lot higher than you are here, so, you know, do you worry about a 3%, 4% drop even if it's nasty and sharp, and, you know, our man has been not to. >> okay. tony, what do you tell people that have been either out of the mark or severely underinvested, and, by the way, this would extend to professionals as well as individuals, people who have stubbornly have a normal weighting to equities. they have obviously been wrong and that's fine. that's not really helpful. what would be help successful what do you tell them, okay, given that i think things are good and i don't see anything in the near future to disrupt things, so now buy >> i'll pull the strategist. buy, yeah, because ultimately if you look at when the yield curve measured by the six-month ten-year goes from 100 basis points to an actual inversion
12:11 pm
you get upside and then you correct. after the inversion, that's when you accelerate ch the whole point of this thing is this the only time you want to be a seller, like a net seller, stay out of the way, is if you can identify a recession. in the history of the markets since 1954 anything outside of the recession, the crash of the depression was not the peak, 1998 was not the peak. however, you want to be long until you had an identifiable cycle. the only thing that shuts downs is a recession driven by the yield curve. >> i don't agree with you. >> hold on he's not the only one who would say that and leon cooperman, by the way, who will be with us tomorrow is a big-time proponent of that, is that the -- a sniffing -- a market sniffing out a recessioning is what will
12:12 pm
ultimately end this bull market. >> so two things -- >> and they also don't appear out of nowhere. >> the market sniffs out recessions that never were also, so you have as many false alarms as you can count on ten hands. >> sure, but those are two different things. >> tony, i want -- i want to just bring out i think a subtle point which is that you are right. historically without a recession you don't really get a bear market except that the last two bear markets were literally cautioned by the market because the markets have become so much more systemic to the economy than they had been in decades past, so the dotcom bubble cautioned the recession when it blew up, and obviously the fngts crisis was a market crisis, real estates, insurance companies, bank you could have a market effect that could have a recession. it doesn't always need to be many that first.
12:13 pm
>> what preceded the bubble popping was the inversion of the yield curve developed by michael mill kept, are worldcome and a whole number of other companies palau up and you get to the inhurns crisis, the curve in 2006 twrks that couple with cds, so you had 50% of corporate maturities under three years. >> it reverted because financial bubbles were bursting. >> because the ten-year stayed florida. we can get into it, but i think it was because the ten-year stayed flat and the fed overtightened and ended up inverting the curve which i think they will do again this year, probably in the third quarter -- not this year they will do this cycle in the third quarter next year if they follow their current doc flat. because inflation expectations are going up, that's why the fed is raising rates and the
12:14 pm
ten-year goes up historically, that's knows what happens. if the fed raises rate it's a slowing growth move so the ten-year stays flat and the fed comes up through it and you invert the curve which shuts down the capital especially in the shadow -- the markets can help and create and exage trait but ultimately it's a lack of access to capital. >> schmoopy, happy tony dwyer, is he right. >> that i'm schmoop why. is he right about the market >> i think's different things going on always different things going on, but you have global easing
12:15 pm
going on, too, so at some point if europe decides that they are not going to ease anymore, will that put pressure on our ten-year to go up and how does that affect the market >> and oddly getting the mandate that he just got means that for those markets tied to the anshan side it's going to be lower for longer. >> but weary so programmed emotionally not to accept an overall good environment, and if you think about it, and everyone keeps talking about the united states there is beyond the united states something going on that we've continually focused on in terms of global growth and just because the market has not pulled back 5% is not a reason that it's going to pull back 5%. goldman sachs puts out at report this weekend that's excellent. 1965, 1994, 1996 you're talking about a number of trading days exceeding in each instance 380 days before you get a 5% pullback. we're sitting at 332 right now so does that mean just because we're getting close to that number that had a 5% pullback has to occur and if we all
12:16 pm
remember 1996, what followed '96 was '97, '98, '99. good luck with that strategy. >> i don't remember 1996 i was following oasis around upstate new york. >> i'll say one thing about tony's comment which i agree with a recession is what will ultimately cause a crash in the markets or bear market we're far off. everybody is looking -- a lot of people are looking for a recession. like whale watching, you're looking for some little bump on the horizon and often europe creating a little wavelet appearing. you play get at growth curve that may knock the market down 5%, 7% or something and everyone will realize this is not a recession, call off the alarm and keep sailing we're probably a good one to two years away from anything that even looks like a recession. >> all right another big name investor calling out bitcoin today by comparing the crypto currency to one of this country's most
12:17 pm
infamous financial frauds. stayed sawed's prince al aweed saying this this morning. >> i don't believe in bitcoin. i think will implode one day i think it's envoy in the making >> let's bring in brian capital. brian runs a fund dedicated to bitcoin and other digital assets, a fund, by the way, that was returned an astanding 2,000 year to date welcome back. >> thanks, scott thanks for having me back. what's your reaction that you heard from the prince today? >> listen, i think what it shows is a fundamental misunderstanding of what bitcoin is we all get caught up on whether this will be a global currency that disrupts central banks but fundamentally all that bitcoin is a software program that removes the middle man from finance. so if i told you that i had a new company or a new app that i was able to remove a lot of the middle man from financial services, you'd be all over that and say this is the greatest thing ever, so it -- it shows me
12:18 pm
that the prince doesn't understand what is going on here. >> i mean, he's far from the loenlts call it credible investor or person of stature in the financial industry who is either throwing shade directly at bitcoin investors or at least raising serious questions about it jamie dimon and others. >> yeah, very true i count myself along those r. i mean, back in 2013 i said the same thing thought it was a scam and wouldn't work. hi to break through all the old concepts of what a financial system is and the idea that a financial system that we have now is built with a middle man in it. as soon as can you break through that then can you start to understand that this is a revolutionary technology and a fundamental change in the way we send money around the world. >> so you're saying you think people are sort of conflating the credibility, if you will, of the underlying technology with the speculative nature of the investment itself. >> yeah. i think that's probably a fair
12:19 pm
thing to say listen, i don't know if bitcoin is going to be the one that wins out. i'm always remind that had myspace existed before facebook but there will be a token that resides on a block chain that will allow us to send value over the internet without a middle man and that's a revolutionary technology and something i want to be invested in. >> my question all aas long as what would happen if something as simple as the treasury second of the united states or the fed chair made any kind of questionable suspect comment about bitcoin. forget everything else bitcoin would get hammered at that very moment, would it not >> yes, and it has brian. >> yeah. >> i want brian to answer that. >> mt. gox hack should have killed that thing and it didn't when you had hundreds of millions stolen off an exchange, that should have been the last we heard of. it turns out that was only the beginning so i would love to
12:20 pm
hear your take. >> yeah. >> what happens if tomorrow the second of the treasury says it is a felony toexchange money i bitcoin. >> bitcoin loses half of its value in an instant. >> and then whaebs the question in. >> it's not good if my investors ask me what moy nightmare scenario is, probably one of them, right not goodful u.s. government comes out and says this is illegal. that being said, i don't think you can stop it. it's like saying how do you stop the internet and how do you stop the e-mail so it will rebound and what has happened every single time is that it has rebounded because there's a fundamental demand for this technology. >> you don't have to come out and say it's illegal all somebody has to say is that we're taking a real hard look at it, at the possibility of it being regulated. >> yeah. >> we don't have to get to the illegal part. >> i'll tell you what. i'll tell you what if they came out and said we're getting a real hard look at it and we're talking about
12:21 pm
regulating it and bitcoin goes down, that's the buying opportunity of a century because that means it's not going to be banned that. to me would be the greatest thing. i hope they will be saying that tomorrow and i'll be buying hand over fist. >> real quick, is this thing even relatable it's disbursed and did it actually be regulated? >> it can be regulated as much as the internet can. the internet is a distributive company and so is bitcoin. people who are investing in this as we do should play within the rules. ultimately this is a distributed global currency that is going to be very difficult for the regulators to get their arms around. >> hey, brian, it's joe. if the acceptance of this becomes mainstream and jon goes and purchases a vehicles and that dealership accepts the bitcoin and now tries to convert
12:22 pm
it to cash, inparentally doesn't that create a tremendous amount of downside pressure on bitcoin itself it almost self-destructs. >> not necessarily not anymore than if you have switched ranks and want to buy a dealership -- buy a car in florida, you would need to convert it to u.s. dollars and they would need to convert it back. as long as the market is big enough, that wouldn't affect it. >> the last point is the great one, brian, because we're talking 7 trillion in currencies versus 160 billion in crypto currencies if you pass it as they are doing now with real estate, you pass 7 milne of this for somebody with a house somewhere and they hit the market with 7 million bitcoin. it makes an impact for the exact reason that the guys holding bitcoin don't want to do that right now. >> people don't understand how liquid bitcoin is. i could buy or sell $5 billion of bitcoin with a phone call
12:23 pm
it's a very liquid market. as liquid as the gold etf, and that are people actually using it for commerce. many people are settling contracts in china with bitcoin because it's so much more efficient. >> thanks for calling in, b.k. >> my pleasure. >> and for those of you who watch "fast money" at 5:00 know that brian is better than anybody in terms of focusing and investing in this certainly fast growing and somewhat controversial vehicle. i mean, i can just tell by the reaction on the desk. >> it's an asset, not a currency. >> catch brian regularly on "fast money." >> it's an an asset, not a currency, but if doesn't have to be a currency to be successful. >> i'm always like personally taken aback to hear somebody have such a strong opinion on something that they know absolutely nothing about, never researched read three articles and they say this is going to go away maybe it will go away. >> and you're hitting alwid.
12:24 pm
>> somebody with authoritarian regimes in a feudal company. shouldn't be shocked that they don't love something that no government can control right now. that's exactly what you should expect and almost makes the bulls' argument for them to hear people in that position of authority to dislike it. >> we put up the list of those famous faces and names certainly in the world of finance, and the prince is not at all alone, whether it's marks, dimon, gundlach, el-erian, fink and others not on the list. >> bitcoin has blown up seven times on the way from $1 to $6,000 it's gone down 85% on four separate occasions, gone down 90% once, but it makes new highs after those crashes, so saying this is going to blow up is not profound it does that on a regular basis. if it is in fact the emergence of a new asset class being born,
12:25 pm
expect regular blowups because it's all speculative doesn't known it's not going to outlive each and every blowup along the way. >> how much of this moving higher is people just buying it because it's momentum-based and it's going higher and they don't understand the fundamentals? >> most. >> and it might work, and i don't know, okay, so i'm not buying it. it's okay to say you don't know sometimes, but you don't go something just because it's going up that's not the reason to buy. >> no one admits that that's what they are doing. >> sorry, it's okay. >> you can apologize to dinner. >> you are going to buy skwlason dinner >> "halftime go the "getting starting right now. >> street fight. analysts are starting to take signs on one of the most controversial stocks of the day, ge a new big-name buy and a new big-name sell today. the call of the day is next. plus, why investing in reits
12:26 pm
is far more science than art the top cities to play this strategy coming up. and tomorrow on "the halftime report," investing legend leon cooperman of omega advisers "the hfte" ralimeport with scott wapner and the traders is back in two minutes at fidelity, trades are now just $4.95. we cut the price of trades to give investors even more value. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. fidelity, where smarter investors will always be. and at $4.95, you can trade with a clear advantage. we're drowning in information. where, in all of this, is the stuff that matters?
12:27 pm
the stakes are so high, your finances, your future. how do you solve this? and tomorrow on "the you partner with a firm that advises governments and the fortune 500, and, can deliver insight person to person, on what matters to you. morgan stanley.
12:28 pm
did you know slow internet can actually hold your business back? say goodbye to slow downloads, slow backups, slow everything. comcast business offers blazing fast and reliable internet that's up to 16 times faster than slow internet from the phone company. say hello to faster downloads with internet speeds up to 250 megabits per second. get fast internet and add phone and tv now for only $34.90 more per month. call today. comcast business. built for business.
12:29 pm
welcome back to "the halftime report. two dl dualing analyst calls on what has become one of the most controversial stocks, general electric upgraded at bank of america and downgraded to a sell at morgan stanley. >> our call of the day i love this one because morgan stanley, they are the ones who downgrade to underweight they say watch out below dividend, they will cut the dividend bank of america says, yeah, we know that. we know they will cut the dividend but the reset should enable ge to start beating and raising. where do we come down ton, a $22 stock. >> november 13th you're going to find out about the dividend. you're also going to under that they don't have financial flexibility, and it's not just about free cash flow or the $8
12:30 pm
billion commitment to the dividend it's about the pension liability that they have, and it's about the pension liability that they have moving forward over the next four year, and the i think that this isas company fully indicative of the old school bulk economy type of corp railings that's going to be facing these challenges over the next five to ten years. >> you know, obviously the upgrade thinks they can turn it around and the downgrade thinks it is will take more time. jon najarian >> i bought it today. >> bought it today. >> options or stock. >> both. i bought options and i bought -- i mean, i bought option spreads, judge and bought the stock, just up underneath it as i said somebody did last week when they bought those 108,000 puts. i think they did it purposefully so they could buy on the big dip. still up on the big trade and here's why i liked it. i went back and looked at kmi and williams, boast those, by the way, when they cut the dividends, those stocks rallied, made it back into the positive
12:31 pm
rally. the average was an aggressive selloff on the announcement and a rally back to break even that same day i'm not saying that ge gets up and runs, scott, but i like it at this level. do i want to hang on and wait for 20 i would love to but i want to pull the trigger so i've got half a position right now. >> hold on. >> pardon me for just a movement perfect person to hear from here you own the stock. >> we own the stock and owned it for a while. >> trimmed it when it was 30 when it patriot missile half a position >> so the new management team is going in here with a lot of work to do. former ceo is gone, former cfo is gone and if you break up this company and went into oil and go gas preferably what if they death the dividend? what do you do as a share hold earl >> i think it's a good thing because it gives them financial flexibility. the market has already priced in
12:32 pm
the discount of the dividend this, built way, the second time they cut the dividend, right. >> so you don't think that the stock goes down materially if they cut the dividend whenever they may do that. >> no, i actually think the stock will flat line and go up because the news is finally out there. it's that uncertainty issue again to say what you're going do, do what you're going to do and cut the dividend and say this is our company, this is what we've been playing with, and by the way, we're a new team and they will kitchen sink it and the earnings will come down and the stock will rebound it might not rebound until the -- >> would you buy more? >> goes down below to, i would buy more. >> the pension liabilities they have got to the figure that out in terms of cash flow. the only thing that can potentially help them is interest rates at this point and they have to fund them so that's a negative issue. >> kmi was theish upwhen the real aggressive start talked about it when they cut the dividend talked about it for weeks, months on the show, to finally are cut the dividend at 13%, not
12:33 pm
that it's running like crazy, but i like that one and when you see that kind of action. >> ge is no longer considered -- >> easy, tiger, hold on. >> because i've got an orange shirt hon. >> ge is no longer considered an aristocrat so the investor base is very different from some. others that you've had like a j&j and people that buy only companies that raise dividends so the investor base is also different. >> i think you guys are both going to be right. i think the calendar is not your friend right now you've got a lot of competing forces out there pushing it down. >> you'll get to the end of the quarter and you know a lot of professional money managers won't want to show this thing. i think you'll be right. i think flannery is the right guy. he's doing all the right things for a turnaround which is what this s.ge is now a turnaround and frankly turnarounds usually take more than one quarter so i would expect them to miss again on the next quarter. just going to take longer to play how the they will be fine in the end. >> what do you make of the last
12:34 pm
couple of trading sessions a stock that was down 10% pre-market on friday rallies back i think to close positive which we said it had a chance to do that today and down another 35% in that. >> the message for me is the price action -- i'm happy with my honeywell that's what the price action says to me i stay in honeywell and want no part of ge. >> you can see it right there on your screen, on that chart if we can throw it up again. big downdraft. nice recovery and now where are we going in. >> to jim's point, it's tax law selling. let me take my losses. a lot of gains in the market this year, too, so if you can offset that and get another high quality company against any gains that you've taken in other parts of the sglorld friday might have been short selling that pushed it into the close. i made a lot of money on the downside especially when people start to see recovery. we were talking about it at into
12:35 pm
and people probably said enough for me and i'm going cover today you see the trend. >> the countdown is on 70 degrees this weekend but only 62 days left till christmas, joe. what are you getting me? and retailers all over the world are already holding their breath two toy-makers are getting hit hard today we'll hit hasbro and mattel. geesh. >> jon najarian is using the options market to identify imminent and right opportunities. see what he sees next on "halftime. sees alpha in real a. like agriculture to feed the world. and energy to fuel its growth. real estate such as e-commerce warehouses. and private debt to finance transportation and infrastructure. building blocks of strategies to pursue consistent returns over time
12:36 pm
from over $120 billion dollars in real assets. partner with pgim. the global investment management businesses of prudential. i was playing golf love golf.... i used to love golf. wait, what, what happened? i was having a good round, and then my friend, sheila, right as i was stepping into the tee box mentioned a tip a pro gave her. no. yep. did it help? it completely ruined my game. well, the truth is, that advice was never meant for you. i like you. you want to show me your swing? it's too soon. get advice that's right for you. investment management services from td ameritrade.
12:37 pm
but we should be seeing ymore range of motion., i'm fine. okay, well let's see you get up from the couch. i'm sorry, what? grandpa come. at cognizant, we're uniting doctors, insurers and patients on a collaborative care platform, making it easier to do what's best for everyone's health, every step of the way. you may need more physical therapy. ugh... am i covered for that? yep. look. grandpa catch!
12:38 pm
grandpa duck! woah! ha! there you go grandpa. keep doing that. get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital. our data partners at kensho say the russell is likely to go higher in november and december after big gains in the first part of the year for more on that, go to cnbc.com/kensho. >> welcome back to "halftime."
12:39 pm
jon najarian at the telestrator for a two-for. two options trades today give us number one. >> salesforce. we've been talking about the cloud, how much peter and i love it and how their revenue streams increase dramatically because of the monthly subscriptions and things i was talking specifically about adobe and microsoft, but salesforce has been killing it. as you can see, from 70 bucks to 11 bucks, that's the year to date numbers take a look at the chart today the stock had sold off in about the first hour of trading, and as it sold off people came scrambling in and bought these calls. the november 100 calls, so the stock is 99 bucks and coming in aggressively and buying these calls. earnings are, i believe, the 16th after the close november 16th after the close. take a look at the second one. stock up 22 cents and the second one xrt. the spdr for retail. take a look at retail. that's the year-to-date from 45 all the way down to the low of the year when everybody was throwing them out, babe we the bath water
12:40 pm
now it's coming back and making a nice move today, up almost a percent and they are scrambling in buying huge amounts of upside calls. i am in both of these trades i'll probably be in them anywhere from a week to ten days. >> doc, good stuff come on back. >> thank you, sir. coming up, finding a winning formula to invest in real estate up portfolio manager's key to success is science his advice and the top strategies for his success is coming up next but first michelle caruso-cabrera with a look at what's coming up on "power lunch" 20 minutes away. >> i'll get my lab coat for the next segment the s&p coming off a perfect week hitting records every day the one thing that needs to happen to keep that perfect streak alive this week plus, the fight over your 401(k) congress is looking to slash your contributions to retirement to pay for tax reform. president trump says no way. is it a good idea? we'll debate plus, big payout new reports detailing bill o'reilly's sexual harassment
12:41 pm
allegations. the reporter who got the $32 lln paenmiioymt. he will ole join us. "power" starts in 19 minutes don't move what started as a passion... ...has grown into an enterprise. that's why i switched to the spark cash card from capital one. now, i'm earning unlimited 2% cash back on every purchase i make. everything. what's in your wallet?
12:42 pm
you myour joints...thing for your heart... or your digestion... so why wouldn't you take something for the most important part of you... your brain. with an ingredient originally found in jellyfish, prevagen is now the number one selling brain health supplement in drug stores nationwide. prevagen. the name to remember.
12:43 pm
we're back on "halftime. investing is real estate science, not an art.
12:44 pm
well, the real estate sector is up 6% this year. steve leblanc, the co-founder of cap ridge partners sees more value and has a proprietary way to find it thanks for being with us. >> thank you. >> you were here a year or so ago, we say it's a science, not an art, a play on world pause you're following where so-called s.t.e.m. jobs are going in the way you're thinking about where you're looking to make money in real estate. >> we formed cap ridge as a way for individuals to invest in real estate. we determined we wanted to be value investors in what growth markets? we created a s.t.e.m. dex. we think the s.t.e.m. jobs, science, technology, engineering and mathematics and we looked at life and quality of business and cost of doing business so we looked at areas where weed to invest in. >> austin. >> number one last year. >> austin led the country in job and population growth. in the last six years austin's population growth has grown five
12:45 pm
times the national average, five times. job growth, 2.5 times. >> what, you would look to deploy capital for like commercial real estate and other real estate investment in austin as a result of that? >> yes, as long as there's value. we're value investors first, but long time, real estate commercialization takes a long-term investing. we believe it will outperform the nation for the next ten years and now it's a value proposition. >> charlotte was ninth last year how did it gom up to number three? >> it a lot of s.t.e.m. job growth, quality of life is there and cost of doing business is very good there. it's had fantastic job growth over the last six years. >> stephen, what about san francisco? who can you be a value investor, just like when jim says i can't buy amazon how do you say you're a value investor in san francisco? >> that is the name that pops out on that list, pops out different from all the list. >> and seattle and san jose. >> we are not. >> okay. >> we develop this list with
12:46 pm
rclco, one of the best in the country and if you think of the concentration of s.t.e.m. jobs, think about it, why seattle and san francisco and san jose are on the list. it's not about the cost of doing business. >> if we look more broadly at investing in real estate assets, reits, you have a really good take on this interest rates are going up. all of the areas that investors want to be looking at within the market, what's your take on reiths and why wouldn't they go down if the current scenario plays itself out. >> well, tell me what the current scenario. >> rates continue to rise. >> and why do rates rise >> fed is obviously going to get back to normalizing policy. >> we think, maybe. >> and is it because gdp growth is doing well and job growth is growing well. >> even if rates go up real estate investment trusts can be a good place to be. >> some capital will flow out of reits and has flown out of
12:47 pm
reits. since we've had the last four rate hikes reits have underperformed and lagged. the market -- the equity markets on reits is not pricing in a slowdown to the economy due to rate increases >> steve, if you're right, one of the most worry some trends in the country which is polarization and people feeling like they are not part of the future and being left behind, it sounds like it would continue a pace because that s.t.e.m. dex, the cities, if you look at electoral maps, those are blue stimps all the jocks, all the opportunities and all the real estate games seem to be accruing to areas where there's a high s.t.e.m. presence, i agree that you're right about that. is there an answer maybe beyond your perview, but is there an answer to all the other parts of the country that are not with the program so to speak and are feeling increasingly threatened by s.t.e.m. and the companies that are outsourcing >> ai and everything else that we talk about in these incredible areas of technology.
12:48 pm
>> you must see that happening concurrently with where you're investing in real estate. >> why i'm a real estate investor i'm a -- >> i want you to solve it, steve. >> well, i think it's education. i'll give you a stunning number, so if you look at the unemployment rate among college graduates, it's 2%. >> tiny. >> right. >> if you look at it among high school dropouts, the -- the official rate is probably 9% or 10%, but if you look and add labor participation rate, if you said high school dropouts ought to participate in the labor force at same rate that college graduates, i would argue high, right, the unemployment rate is near 50% among high school dropouts, so should we solve the education problem? yes. am i doing that? no aim figuring out how to take our high net worth individuals and pension funds and help them invest in real estate so that they can help those maybe? yes. education system, i can't fix for you. if you did that, i think you'd have a -- a big push towards getting this country getting back on the track.
12:49 pm
we think lock term these ten markets will outperform the national average they have the last six years they will continue it's interesting because if you think about our parents, right, and employers decided where employees lived. now employees decide where employees go. >> dotely agree. >> and we're looking for growth in college graduates we're looking for the highest percentage of college graduates. quality of life and cost of doing business we believe that amazon will pick a s.t.e.m. dex market. why wouldn't they? >> well, we shall see. apologize for stepping on your toes at the end. appreciate you being here. >> thank you >> steve leblanc, cap ridge partner co-founder >> coming up, a boost for bill ackman's adp campaign. that's next and in the blitz. >> also on the docket before we go vf corps, big news on nvidia and iconic why are those stocks getting hammered 63 days before
12:50 pm
christmas? we'll tell you today, the new new york is ready for take-off. we're invested in creating the world's first state-of-the-art drone testing facility in central new york and the mohawk valley, which marks the start of our nation's first 50-mile unmanned flight corridor. and allows us to attract the world's top drone talent. all across new york state, we're building the new new york. to grow your business with us in new york state, visit esd.ny.gov. you know win control? be ss with us in new york state, this guy. check it out! self-appendectomy!
12:51 pm
oh, that's really attached. that's why i rent from national. where i get the control to choose any car in the aisle i want, not some car they choose for me. which makes me one smooth operator. ah! still a little tender. (vo) go national. go like a pro.
12:52 pm
excuse me, are you aware of what's happening right now? we're facing 20 billion security events every day. ddos campaigns, ransomware, malware attacks... actually, we just handled all the priority threats. you did that? we did that. really. we analyzed millions of articles and reports. we can identify threats 50% faster. you can do that? we can do that. then do that. can we do that? we can do that. time for the blitz.
12:53 pm
bill ackman winning support from glass louis in his adp proxy fight. >> yes, in fact, he did and its reapproaching the july 31st high at 121. stock is a buy. >> vf corps bidding a two year high. you're a happy man today. >> i'm a very happy man. 40% of its earnings came from international growth. >> a former ge executive is the new ceo. >> but they also missed profits. they beat on sales, missed on profits that's why the stocks down over $2 right now. >> nvidia, the stock price raised $230. >> artificial intelligence is the most important thing going on in our lives in the next ten years, nvidia wrote the software language that it's all standardized on. there's nothing else wrote
12:54 pm
saying. >> jimmy >> toy stocks under pressure. hasboro, mattel. >> all from the bankruptcy of toys 'r' us. this is a separation situation. toys 'r' us is reorganizing not liquidati liquidating. don't touch these stocks right now. >> ceo brian goldner is going to be on "mad money." we talked about at the top of the hour, the busiest week we'll give you the rest of the names you need to know and we'll do it next. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor.
12:55 pm
♪ it's not just a car, it's your daily treat. ♪ go ahead, spoil yourself. the es and es hybrid. experience amazing.
12:56 pm
12:57 pm
not rebalancing your portfolio. focused on what you love, not how your money will last through retirement. we make it easier to plan for retirement with day one target date funds from prudential. look forward to your 401k plan. when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.
12:58 pm
12:59 pm
fidelity. becareally want to be there, but you can't. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading media companies create more immersive ways to experience entertainment with new digital systems and technologies. get ready, because we're helping leading companies see it- and see it through-with digital. we are back with a hardy congratulations for our own who helped raise $200,000 this month for traders for a cause.
1:00 pm
for more information on how you can get involved go to traders for a cause.org. raising money to fight als. >> that's right and cancer. thanks, nate and scott are here in the studio. >> final trade, joe. >> microsoft. >> cisco systems. >> nvidia. >> we did it in 30 seconds. here's what's on the "power lunch" menu. congress is talking about slashing tax deductions for retirement plans. president trump says no way. there won't be any changes. the fight for your money straight ahead. the s&p closing at a record high every day last week. that hasn't happened in 20 years. will we get a repeat this week and the one thing that could make it happen plus o'reilly is back in the spip zone. the host paying more than $32 million to settle a single harassment claim this just

58 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on