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tv   Power Lunch  CNBC  October 27, 2017 1:00pm-3:00pm EDT

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if they did away with it, you would see a trade down >> stop the buy backs, stop the differ de dividends. >> we'll continue to watch that stock along with amazon crossing 1100 for the first time ever in the last few moments that does it for us. power starts now i'm melissa lee. the 3% economy, america growing at a solid pace despite the hurricanes what is fueling it plus developing news on the race to be the next fed chief amazon hit g 1100 foot first time ever, alphabet also at all-time highs and a big day for the iphone x which one will give you the best bang for your buck and a healthy marriage cvs and aetna, about a $66 billion deal what it would mean for the other big players and your health care "power lunch" starts right now
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hey, everybody i'm brian sullivasullivan if it's a day that ends in y, it must be another record high. nasdaq best one day gain in nearly a year. and one big etf hitting its highest level since before the 2000 market high and thank you big tech because amazon, alphabet and microsoft all providing the gas to this big engine all three posting huge gains but it is not all sunshine and lollipops and rainbows merck taking a big hit biggest dow, jcpenney shares tanking. it cut its full year forecast and expedia also plunging. the travel website missing estimates by a wide margin and check out ge, down again it has now lord a third of its value this year. tyler, ge, pulling its investors in a wofrld hurld of hurt. >> ouch. welcome, everybody i'm tyler mathisen and here is what either is happening. brent crude is rallying. prices topping $60 for the first
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time this year ali baba co-founder joseph tsai reportedly agrees to buy a 49% stake in the brooklyn nets the deal values the nba team at $2.3 billion and it looks like more problems for wells fargo, dow jones reports that federal prosecutors are investigating the bank's currency trading operations. and the economy is also seemingly firing on all cylinders. gdp for the third quarter despite the deadly hurricanes hitting 3% here to take us inside the numbers is steve liesman this is second quarter in a row of 3% growth >> and what is interesting as you suggest, this is a strong quarter, but it raises questions about just how healthy the economy may be because it was a quarter supposed to be hobbled by the hurricanes third quarter's 3% fold the 3.1
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in the second quarter. came with stronger business investment, trade and even theory building, but a weaker consumer spending. that could have been hurt by the hurricanes want to show you something different. here is how we got to 3% let's go to the wall what you can see right there is that we last 0.2% from residential spending and we headed 1 p.6 percentage points from the consumer and you can see we added 0.7 from inventories and then i think business investment and added of a that point. and the last one, trade 0.4. and it was the trade and inventory numbers that were a little bit out sized compared to their previous times and the consumer was a little bit below. rdg saying there is more than enough here to keep the fed on track for a december rate hike and no doubt many in washington will make too much of the 3% reading on growth. speaking of the fed, i'm told by a white house source that the president is, quote, leaning towards nominating jerome
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powell, but he's not yet fully made up his mind >> all right we'll ask you to stick around. and we have weekly rate counts out. and jackie d is at the commodity desk >> baker hughes reporting that rig counts went up one oil rig was added this week to a total of 737 and as a matter of fact it's the first time we've seen a rise in rig counts in the last four weeks. but what is more interesting is the rise in prices that we're seeing today wti has a little bit more than a 2% spike here. there are more reasons for prices to be assumsupported rigo and potentially go higher, all the questions around iran and what opec may or may not do. so expect them to stay over 50 for some time is when i'm hearing. >> jackie, thank you plus we've been telling you that it has been a huge week for tech
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earnings dom chu is looking at the off the chart gains. >> off the chart is right when it comes to technology stocks because they are taking off right now. and if you take a look at the overall subpoena s au-s&p 50all, already up and investors are taking notice. if you take a look at the spdr tech, overall that stock has gone up again since the best levels since all the way back to 2000, big news there if you look at this particular index, it's just $3 away per share in thatetf from record highs that we saw back in the tech bubble. now if you take a look at some of the big movers and how much market value they have added, take a look at these, because intel just this week alone has added $14 billion to its market cap. of course a lot of that coming on the heels of that big earnings report from last night. also google parent company
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alphabet adding on $32 billion, that is a massive move, but nothing compared to mike xroe soft, $49 billion just this week to give you some context, that is like adding on a ford motor to the value of microsoft just in the course of this week and we're not even mentioning amazon, technically consumer discretionary, but still it added close to $54 billion in market cap that is just this week alone back over to you >> and there were so many doubts about the tech complex in general because for the week or so leading up to these earnings, amazon performance was down 3% or 6% compared to gains in the s&p since its last report. so we had sort of been consolidating here waiting to see if these earnings would actually bear fruit. >> and they have because remember there were a handful of analysts out there already warning investors to maybe expect a little bit of a disappointing earnings report overall. with amazon, in investors eyes, it was enough to be bullish about them i take a look at the overall tech sector.
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one already up 26% we talked about the chip stocks. intel had been an underperformer over the course of the year. it is still performing with the s&p 500, but that red hot semiconductor etf was already up about 35% just over the course of the year to date period so for a lot of these, it's about catch up but the mega cap names, intel and other stocks like that, they have some catching up do you wonder if the runway will be there to make it happen. >> we'll find out. dom, thank you before we get back to the economy, two quick hot takes number one, awesome fast money last night i love how they fought over microsoft. dan said short it. and we did the numbers jeff bezos could buy the knicks, lakers and warriors and have money left over. with just the money he made today. jeff bezos increased his wealth by $10.1 billion today based on amazon's gain.
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>> knicks, lakers and who? >> warriors. >> i like the warriors the other two you can hold >> you can have the knicks >> can't be worse than they have been doing >> i think the best thing would be for them to get a new team in seattle. >> yeah, bring back the sonics all right. so the economy surprising most people growing at 3% in the third quarter. let's now bring in the founder and ceo of ds economics. i have to admit something, i am a business investment fan boy. i have to say, when you look at residential investment down a little bit, to me and maybe to you, that increase in business investment portends, big word, good things for the future, does did not? >> it's something that we've been waiting for we need to see it sustained. i think it's related into the oil industry we also sue some repairs aw som following harvey but this is two solid quarters in a row after it had collapsed
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when oil prices collapsed in the beginning of 2016. we're now sort of running a little stronger and that is really welcome news. >> i think you're wrong, brian >> thanks. >> portends is not a big word. >> for me it is. >> for you maybe look, what i want -- >> you know what i mean, though, it's a good sign, is it not? >> it is >> big word for virginia tech. >> i was insults only brian. >> tyler mathisen went to jefferson's biggest mistake, the university of virginia >> why is brian wrong. >> i want to connect the two i don't think brian is wrong the one big story is the earnings number, the other the economy number they are intimately connected. one thing we're seeing is people are surprised to the occupy side so the earnings and the economy. the economy is the pie, the corporations take a slice of that and i think we have to put the $60 on,000 question on the table which is the extent to which
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this is tied to the changeover in the white house we know two things had happened since the changeover in the white house. the first is the stock market has taken off. the second is sentiment has taken off. and i mentioned diane saw this what i come see is this business investment number is a bit higher, it had pain doing well, it was terrible in '16 you have a bit of a bounce back. irrespective of how much credit the president will take for it >> well, you and i don't want to get into the president's head so i won't get into that either but i do think that there is one of the things -- you wrote a great article about out stock market, it's not the tech sensitive stocks that are railing. there is a sense of deregulation and synchro miss world growth going on and there is a real stamina to a marathon that we've been runnin going on and there is a real stamina to a marathon that we've been running that we had been hobbling along.
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we've thrown away the crutches and now we can run on our own. what i worry about is i would rather see tax reform, revenue neutral, rather than tax cuts in an economy that has a strong base because i worry that that would be a sugar high that would really set us up for a drop down the road i want to see tax reform that is revenue neutral. >> let me ask you, if business investment is good now and one of the key parts of the tax reform package is to incentivize business investment through immediate experiencing, isn't that going to make this liftoff even more if they get that isn't that a good thing? >> the big is "if. and what we are looking at is the way that it's set up, these will be temporary, they won't be permanent. they are doing anything they can to get a win which is i understand that politically, but economically you have to have permanent tax changes, a permanent reform to the tax code these are all temporary things that it's not clear that they
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will end up in business investment it looks more like to me the kinds of things that they are proposing will end up with will end up more in stock buy backs and dividends. that is great for wall street, but it doesn't change the fundamental sustainability of the marathon for the u.s. economy and we need to have as much productivity growth that sort of long term succestai sustainability, not bore he rowirow rowing borrowing from our future and i think we're heading into a period regardless of who is head of the fed, i think we're talking about more rate hikes next year as well. >> this may seem blasphemous, but does it matter to the economy if a dollar from tax reform is spent on buybacks or dividends or if it's spent on increasing the wage? >> that is an interesting question one answer would be it depends on what models you use the other thing it does in the sense that if a dollar goes into
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for example wages to lower income people, they are more likely to spend that money if it goes into a capital good, then you'll get the productivity that i think brian was correct in talking about that could ensue from this greater investment where i disagree is there seems like there is a lot of money around and getting money to do a project is cheap and it is plentiful. it doesn't strike me that the tax rate is the wedge between doing those productivity enhancing projects or not or giving people a raise. it does make sense to make the u.s. corporate rate more competitive. but let's not bank on massive wage hikes and huge growth coming from the tax cuts >> and remember, we asked fred smith of fedex a couple weeks ago, i think you asked him that good question which is how do you know the money will beused for these things and he said you can't force companies do it, but speaking
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for fedex, he said we'll probably buy more trucks and build more facilities which means you hire people to drive those trucks, work on those trucks, and build the building that you just bought >> it should create no matter what, to melissa's question, if you raise the value of the firm, you also raise the value of replacing that firm and you shouldn't cite other investment to replicate the existing firm i just gave them a lesson in tobin's cue, didn't i in. >> yes, you did. you get a gold star. >> final thought is yours.n. >> yes, you did. you get a gold star. >> final thought is yours.. >> yes, you did. you get a gold star. >> final thought is yours.. >> yes, you did. you get a gold star. >> final thought is yours. >> i think we need to think very carefully about how we get sustainable growth that is the key. this is great, it's stamina, the economy has it, let's sustain it this is a marathon, let's not do any sprints and tire ourselves out. >> all right have a great weekend appreciate it. >> tobin, showing off. >> we don't know that at
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virginia >> university of buffalo >> anyway, thank you more on this big day for technology we'll have a little taste of "fast money" for lunch so we'll play a game of would you rather amazon, googlele or microsoft. all three soaring. and hey mr., can you spare a billion in who is richer right now? as we head to break, check out c cvs and aetna shares both down as they are thinking about a blockbuster deal what other health care companies could be next. hey, you every talk to anybody about your money? yeah, i got some financial guidance a while ago. how'd that go? he kept spelling my name with an 'i' but it's bryan with a 'y.' yeah, since birth. that drives me crazy. yes. it's on all your email. yes. they should know this? yeah. the guy was my brother-in-law. that's ridiculous. well, i happen to know some people. do they listen? what? they're amazing listeners. nice. guidance from professionals who take their time
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we're running out of ways to tell you what kind of monster moves the stocks are making, so let's play a favorite game here, would you rather tonight's contestants, aaron kessler, richard david guys, good to see you. aaron, what is your favorite here >> yeah, so between amazon and google, we prefer google right now. we upgraded amazon this morning however. but google trading around 18 times our gaap earnings number if you think about it, they grew roughly $20 billion advertising revenue based on the quarter 23% year over year very strong. google also showing better operating experience discipline and that led to 30% class earnings growth in the quarter likely not sustainable we think they can sustain mid
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teens earnings growth. >> and what really struck me last night on the conference call was them talking about youtube. 1.5 billion monthly users, up about 30%. and also these users spent a whole lot of time on youtube and this is something a property that is not really being monetized fully yet. >> yeah, i think it's increasingly being monetized over 60 minutes per day per user a billion and a half users but we think it is increasingly being monetized. revenue growth is 30% plus on top of the average search growth so combined low 20s story. a lot of that is being driven by youtube, as well >> not knocking microsoft's quarters, however do you think that microsoft suffers still maybe from a bit of an identity crisis for investors listening last night, talking about azure, office 365 live, do
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you think those things are fulgly understood by the retail investment community because if they are not, is there an opportunity for microsoft on to sort of take that next step >> i think so. we kind of think it's a triple threat the next thing you will see a xbox launch in early november and then azure and the thing that people really haven't been talking about, i think once they get scale, margins will go way up and it will be a cash flow machine. >> aaron, who is ahead in the race for on webster visiadvic so cloud? >> amazon is the clear leader. around 40% market share.ter serr cloud? >> amazon is the clear leader. around 40% market share.er serv cloud? >> amazon is the clear leader. around 40% market share.r servir cloud? >> amazon is the clear leader. around 40% market share. servic cloud? >> amazon is the clear leader. around 40% market share. and with good operating margins around 25% of the quarter. so clear i will tlyily the leadr google is making a shot at it, but we i think the pie is expanding significantly. >> do you think microsoft has a better trajectory to eclipse
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amazon >> i think it's probably going to be amazon and microsoft the guys playing catchup are oracle, they are trying to run as fast as they can there. and he's right that google is making a play there. so hard to be number three and four, so interesting to see how it plays out >> richard, what appears not quantities guyable is the regd laer to risks. there seems to be consensus that something is coming whether related to the elections or data gathering, et cetera can you can price in anything? what do you do with that big unknown out there? >> is that's a good question i think at this point microsoft is not bulletproof, but we think that it's in pretty good shape and if you listen to the narrative, he's a big proponent on legitimate security and safety and privacy and those things so i think they are on the right side of history in this case >> how about you, aaron? can you price this in at all and if so how? >> not too concerned with
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regulatory issues right now. google has a few in europe going on we don't think that are that impactful on the revenue side. let's say they had to separate out some of the android, we think consumers ultimate lir come back to google. they have a dominant share in europe so not too concerned right now >> all right thanks, guys aaron has a 1200 price target on alphabet and amazon and richard sees microsoft going to 94 bucks a share. thanks a news alert on facebook josh >> that's right, some news just breaking right here on facebook. the company now updating its policy regarding ad transparency facebook saying in a statement once verified, these advertisers will have to include a disclosure in their election-related ads, which reads "paid for by" when you click on the disclosure, you will be able to see details about the advertiser like other ads on facebook, you will also be able to see an
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explanation of why you saw that particular ad. so facebook trying to bring more transparency here. of course this all comes as facebook, twitter and google executives preparing to go before congress as lawmakers continue to investigate russian interference in the u.s. president shald electiial electn that happens november 1. >> all right thanks, josh so with amazon's huge gain today, how much more money is he worth now? jeff bezos of course and microsoft is higher, too so who is richer, bezos or bill gates in our man knows, robert frank. >> it was close this morning, now it's not even close as if jeff bezos warrasn't dominant enough, and now he dominates the rich list. yesterday he ended the day with a net worth of $83.5 billion he got $6 billion richer before he even had breakfast and now he's $10.5 billion richer making
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him by far the richest man in the world. amazon shares soaring 13% since the earnings release last night. he owns about 17% of the company. so as we just said, he went from $83.5 billion to over $94 billion right now. bill gates is around 88.5 build. he added more than the 350 ford billionaires made in their entire lifetime. if you average it out, bezos has gotten $70 million richer each day for the last two years if amazon shares reach 1200, which is kind of within striking distance, bezos would be the first person since bill gates in 1999 to have 11 zeros after his net worth, worth $100 billion. a lot of other tech guys added to their wealth. larry page and sergey brin are now at around $50 billion. and mark zuckerberg added $2.5
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billion to his wealth bringing him to $77 billion >> i have to get my jaw off on the floor. go to that stat you said that jeff bezos today made more money than, what, 80% of the richest people in america have made over their entire lifetime? >> that's right. all about 47 of the forbes 400 richest americans are worth less than jeff bezos made just today. >> and he made how much again today? >> $10.5 billion >> where is warren buffett in all this >> he's now number three so he's sit being up there but zuckerberg is closing in you have buffett, ortega at null fo number four and then it's mark zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys.l number four and then it's mark zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys. number four and then it's mark zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys. number four and then it's mark zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys. number four and then it's mark zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys. zuckerberg >> and these are all tech guys >> anybody else find it odd that
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the two richest men on the planet live within a mile and a half of each other in a mid-sized pacific northeast? they live within a mile and a half of each other >> it's the lack of sunshine makes you want to create wealth. >> it creates its own sun. >> exactly >> let's talk about paul knee man's watch. we know the results now. >> yes $17.7 million. this was expected to sell for over a million, maybe somewhere 3 to 5 went for 17. we don't know yet who bought it. paul newman wore it every day in the 60s, 70s, 80s. and it is the most expensive watch now ever sold. the last record holder was at $11 million. there were clearly 2 billionaires, maybe one of them jeff bezos, who just had to have this watch >> look at him, he's so handsome there. he makes the watch look great. >> i used to racecars with paul newman >> really? >> well, not against him we were in the same series he had a souped up volvo wagon
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with an 8 cylinder turbo charged with a secret engine in it that car ever comes up for auction, let us know technology soars, travel tumbles. we'll take a look at what is sinking shares of expedia. and it's more than just hurricanes plus a look at how other names you know are down. "power lunch" back after this. more great camera features and more power. and more than just unlimited data, we give you unlimited plans with hbo included for life. because you deserve more entertainment. and more spokespeople. talking like this, saying the word more. at&t. it's time for more. am i too close? i feel like i'm too close. get the iphone 8 and with all at&t unlimited plans, get hbo for life. only from at&t.
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and more on this big miss. >> and it was not a strong quarter for expedia. earnings negatively impacted by the hurricanes which hurt key markets like sought florida, texas and part of the caribbean over the highly critical summer travel season where travel companies make a significant amgt of their sales. here is their ceo told cnbc. >> i think there is a reaction to some short term impacts and really those two are the impacts of the storms, we said it was $15 million to $20 million of impact in the quarter. another $10 million potentially hitting us here in the fourth quarter. and secondly is an impact of trivago which is having some challenges >> and check out shares of the german operator now down nearly 70% over on the past three months other on dltd line travel players, priceline, trip adviser, are trading down today ahead of their respect if i have
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earnings reports yet wall street on average is bullish on the sector, but rising competition with airbnb is making it more difficult to sustain growth levels witnessed in the past. g guggenheim says it will take rebuilding confidence and expelling concerns and expedia says they will continue investing to compete. and the tough environment for travel doucompanies could also encourage expedia to put more money to work. and they said m and a is in our dna. >> seema mody, thank you a huge potential deal in health care, cvs trying to buy aetna for 66 bhld. bertha coombs is joining us now on a deal that i think would be the biggest merger of the year if it happens.
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>> and biggest health care merger ever. and the idea behind this deal is to drive down costs in health care that is the holy grail and the way it works now is that large employers for example, they hire an insurer to handle medical benefits the insurer hires cvs or aetna to handle the drug business. they have worked together but now they are considering buying aetna. and the stocks are down because it would be a mega deal. it would help cvs defend against the potential threat of amazon launching a mail order pharmacy which is hard as standalone business the deal would leverage c vchvc strength to go head to head with united because united is beatings competition with its optum unit
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that offers an all-in one pharmacy benefit unit and has outpatient surgeries that are cheaper than hospitals people look at them side by side, together cvs and aetna would have a lot of those parts. on top of that, they would also have rhee real lieal life pharm store and also they have a bit of overlap in medicare drug insurance, but not much more but take a look at express scripts, it's up and i think a lot of people are thinking it wouldn't be a standalone much longer >> potentially more consolidation. we'll talk about that now. if the cvs deal for aetna does go through, how will it impact the health insurer stocks? >> thank you for having me >> she did a good job of highlighting that it would start to look like united health which provides insurance and also manages pharmaceutical benefits
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for employees of various companies. do you think that we will see this kind of vertical integration happen throughout the industry >> vertical integration makes a lot of sense united is years ahead of everyone else and they are able to get 100 to 200 basis points less and that translates into better customer attention and market share gains so we think the other insurers would be interested. and another point that wasn't brought up is what these companies are doing in artificial intelligence and also in owning and hsa bank i think it's overlooked by a lot of investors that aetna owns the fifth largest hsa bank that is incredibly important in understanding where people are on their balances and predicting how they will utilize hemalth care so integrated firm would be able to understand where people's finances are, what their drug use is and aetna is making a
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huge push on the artificial intelligence >> so lots of data >> what kind of leverage does a deal like this give a cvs/aetna over drug makers some thinking as my lights go out here, excuse me, something think that there could in fact be some agreements where tlel not pay for drugs until they there is proof that the drugs work what kind of leverage does this give in terms of bargaining power? >> yeah, so right now aetna is cvs' largest customer, but aetna handles the formulary. so they decide what drugs are lower tier so i think that dynamic would change that much as well as their market share since cvs already serves aetna, it wouldn't really change the fact that cvs once anthem comes on board has good 35% share of the retail market. >> people are seeing that the supposed offering is roughly $200 and yet either that is
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trading less than $178 i don't think anybody thought it would be a full cash deal right from the start, but why do you think that price is where it is and why isn't cvs rising as well >> we think that investors are factoring the fact that neither company has confirmed whether this deal is actually happening and that there could be some doubt over regulatory hurdles. but we see it as not really changing the market share. >> what hurdles would be >> with cvs now having anthem, if they also keep aetna, they will move up in market share to be about 35% of all scripts. but really we would argue that aetna would probably stay with them its way so it didn't material impact that and there is really no overlap besides the part d >> okay. thanks, sarah. all right.
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our next guest presided over the $1.4 billion sale of universal american to cvs back in 2011 here to give us his take on the changing landscape in health care is richard barish, veteran player in the insurance and health care industries do you like the feel of this deal >> yes, i do i think from both sides it makes a lot of sense from cvs' side and both before me highlighted this, they are under pressure in their retail business and in the retail pharmacy business and so the need to diversify is pretty important. >> i'm surprised to see you say that because every time i turn around, a new cvs store is opening, they are managing the pharmacies at target, am i right? among others >> yes >> they seem to ob grbe growing growing. our health care is largely
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through united healthcare, our pbm is a cvs company >> they are a terrific company i think they have done some very smart years in the past 7, 8 years. they bought omnicare, us care mark. so i think they expanded their business in a way that makes a lot of sense >> the minute clinics they have done a good job with, too. so richard, if you are an aetna policyholder, you're watching cnbc going what does this mean for me, do you think what this will do is create a captive audience in a way where if you are an aetna customer that you will have to go to cvs, you won't have an ability to go to anybody else they couldn't do that. >> they can't do that. >> but there will be huge incentives to create that captive because they want to o customer relationship to the extent possible and get as much out of that relationship as they can. but i think another point that i don't think has been brought up
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too much to this point is that as the obamacare exchange business diminishes, there will be more of a need for skinnier products particularly in the individual market, skinnier meaning lower benefit, cheaper to consumers >> does the idea that amazon may get into the pharmacy benefit or pharmaceutical sales business, does that figure into this at all? >> yes, totally. there was a rumor yesterday that amazon was getting licenses. they are terrific at mail order, great at distribution. >> so does walgreen buy cigna, do they make a play for -- they couldn't buy unh too big. >> that's right. >> but unh could buy walgreen. >> good point. do you think now we see reactionary deals? if you are a banker, who are you on the phone with today? >> probably on the phone with walmart, walgreen's to see how they feel about -- >> why walmart
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24e6 a hu they have a huge pharmacy business >> i understand that but this is the first real integration between the drug store business and a payor that is the important thing about this deal. the ability to marying on try te things >> if we take the wall shot again and look at united health there. they have optum, pharmacy benefits and they have physician groups and outpatient surgery. my hypothesis is that more and more insurers are going to get into the business of providing care and not just paying for care and providers will get in to the business of insuring >> both are correct. what this deal does i think is brings -- i know aetna is not buying buying aetna,
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but it's really a combination of two very large sized companies so i think that there is this -- when you look at the united lineup and you see the cvs line lineup, these two companies start looking a lot more similar. >> minus the physician groups so far. but we'll see. >> the minute clinics. >> yeah. that's right >> that's a big deal >> and bad news for connecticut. aetna moving to new york richard, thank you americans are spending billions on halloween this year. yeah, they might even buy a little candy up next, we'll talk to the head of smarties about halloween -- >> that's what those are i didn't know what they were >> now you know. it's a family business, they in jersey we'll meet one of the family coming up. [vo] when it comes to investing,
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i'm sue herera here is your cnbc news update. two more women accusing george h.w. bush of gropingthem, at least four women now say the 41st president made a lewd joke and touched them inappropriately while posing for photographs in recent years the former president has apologized to anyone he has offended the house gop set to unvam their tax reform bill with changes to 401(k) plans still reportedly on the table. kevin brady telling nbc news that the focus now is on how to improve the retirement savings plans. >> unless we can improve 401(k)s and help people save more sooner, we won't be changing them but the president would like to raise the limits so people can save more and i think that is a
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good start and for a get the phrase a dollar and a dream because starting tomorrow, the price of a mega millions lottery ticket will double to two bucks it means your odds of winning get tougher, but the jackpots are expected to get much bigger. we'll see how it goes. that is the news update. michelle, back to you. >> thanks, sue tesla seems to be stuck in neutral. stock hitting the lowest level since august on the back of a downgrade. we'll get you the details. and a sweet treat as halloween approaches, we'll talk to the ceo of smarties, but all this candy that we really like and the state of the consumer.
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halloween is next week big event for retail americans plan to spend $9 billion on the holiday with candy making up about a third of that $2.7 billion of those sales. surely this old favorite smarties will end up at the bottom of lots of kids' candy bags the new jersey based company cranking out billions of the pastel colored wafers ahead of the big day. liz, it is sweet, isn't it, over there. co-president of one of america's oldest family-run businesses congratulations and welcome. >> thank you very much it's an honor to be here >> you, your sister and a cousin are co-ceos of the company now
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taking over from -- >> yes, taking over from my uncle jonathan who was company president for 40 years we created a new leadership structure, we're co-presidents >> how is it working >> on so far so good 2016 was a record year for smar. halloween plays a big part in that >> how many rolls of this do you produce a year >> over a billion candy rolls per year so total we sell over 2 billion smarties rolls in a year >> sorry, i got some in my mouth. >> smarties. >> pops and smarties large and small. you ever think of diversifying or buying other brands >> we are always looking at different options. >> smarty pants. >> i am wearing them right now but you cannot see them.
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>> melissa made her best joke. maybe her only joke ever >> which is smarties should buy the dum-dum brand lollipop then you should be in the middle. >> have you thoughtsmarties. >> we do think of that basically, it is the same candy and different factors at this point. is that how you spurt growth, what as your growth been i think of smarties is a candy that i love growing up it was my sister's favorite candy and mine it is an old fashion kind of candy. how do you grow this brand >> so it is iconic old fashion brand. but it speaks to modern sense of stability. smarties take all those boxes.
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we are working for the modern consumers these days >> i got to assume somebody have tried to buy this company in the past >> we get approached regularly about acquisition and your line is always the same, smarties are not the same >> how much are they offering you? >> i wish i can say. no numbers are enough and we love what we do and we'll keep it family owned. >> there is a lot of controversy around sugar in-take whether it is throughstri drinkr sweets or whatever, talk to me about that >> one thing i love about being in the candy industry, we don't have to pretend being what we are not. >> it is clear when you eat it, too. >> it is a treat and i think people really understand that. >> so i am all about transparency, radical transparency and consumers want to eat healthy and they want treats, too. >> thank you for staying in new jersey i am sure there is a lot of temptation to leave to a cheaper
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state. we need businesses >> how are you staying in new jersey >> it has been a priority for us and we continue to invest in our teams and infrastructure so we can continue to make candy efficiently and staying competitive domestically >> this is great, thank you and come back >> co-president of smarties. >> thank you, it is a leasure. >> happy halloween >> same to you >> nasdaq 100 is hitting a new all time high. power lunch is allansactions, og tech rally stay with us real t er-attacar and automatically deploying countermeasures. keeping the world of business connected and protected.
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for tesla is downgrading the stock to 312 to 330. results in lower forecast for automotive revenue they believe the model three is the most important piece of the tesla story. analysts remaining positive on the company, earnings out on november 1st the little company, ibm, you may have heard about them.
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>> oh yeah >> it was a by rating and a $180 target analysts believe of a four year turn around effort, ibm is final finally now position to return to growth. their fourth quarter are quote, "locked and loaded." >> if you are buying enterprises or ibm, ibm is a better buy. >> here is a smarties. >> i am going to have a smarties myself >> txdot, iphone orders on the horizon. can apple continue with their order? >> jc penney of whatever that's left on its market value look at that on this day alone, that and more on this second hour.
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. walls are down and some of the big box names are out performing we'll have a big break down on the big retail divergence ahead.
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the dow is not bad that's nothing compares to some of the over seas market. we'll go globe trotting and finding the best place for your money right now. off the chart, that's what apple is saying apple iphones in demand i am brian sullivan, "power lunch" begins right now. ♪ here is a check on the market there is only one story today. it is the nasdaq hitting an all time high. a big gain since 2016. nasdaq is hit by 144 points and a gain of more than 2% why? big tech is soaring on the back of strong earnings, amazon, alphabet and microsoft, intels also beating on earnings and hitting the highest levels since 2000s. your biggest losers today,
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expedia and general electric and retail is getting whacked today. jc penney cutting its full year's forecast. we'll have more on that straight ahead. tyler. >> thank you, michelle i am tyler matheson, welcome everybody. third quarter gross domestic product coming stronger than expected second straight quarter of 3% plus growth and that has not happened since 2013. a new white house report predicts that corporate tax cuts alone would boost gdp by 3%. and crude oil trading outside of the u.s. jumping above $60 a barrel that's the highest level since july of 2016 crude are rallying two highest level. you know this, retail has been a volatile sector over the past year file that under statement of the
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century. well, some stocks have made big come backs and others continue to get whacked and sold off for investor in honor of halloween, we decide to give you trick or treating retails. first in the trick departments, stores like jc penney and sears and macy's jc penney is some of the lowest. and the sweeties, names like walmart and costco, they are all out performing and they are all up >> chajoining us now is charlie' shay at moody, it is good to see you. they cut their forecast and they basically warned that things could get bad here and they're closing stores and there is a lot of inventory that they'll have to discount and that'll put a pressure on their earnings, do you see a light at the end of
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the tunnel for that? >> the department sector is tough. jc penney in fighting the battle there. walmart and target is not fighting the battle in the same way. >> right >> the problem for the mall base department stores are just that. kohl's is doing well because it does not have to deal with declining mall traffic penney is fighting a secular battle >> you cover the debt of these companies. what's the debt of jc penney is telling you at this point. this holiday season for a penny and a lot of retailers this is going to be a test, really we are betting there is some sort of a shake out. i don't know if jc penny is on the list of shake off system one thing that jumps out with amazon's earnings call is there
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were not any earnings. that's an indication that amazon is promoting heavily and growing top line and using prices as a weapon and walmart is doing the same thing and there is collateral damage. >> do we over blame amazon for retail woes. there is five times square footage space of america it is easy to find the dar darth vader but they are done it themselves, have they? >> absolutely. brian, i will hit that point right now. five years ago, we put a piece out in november that shows 11 large retailer and ts and the ve of stores that was built in prior years, they went to 39 locations in just the five years, period. they're still cycling through
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that you would see not a lot of that store growth has eroded and you have walmart in there and au auto part guys, because they're still growing stores some of the big guys never really thin the herd and that's what we are facing with right now. >> so when you say that there is going to be some retailers that won't necessarily be able to survive this holiday season, will that make it better for other retailers that we see in the past and competitors going out of business and space consolidates and only one player left and things are better for that one player. >> they get there in the interim but things can be hard your toughest competitor and retail can be your worst competitor in retail your weakest competitor can be your toughest competitor because they are desperate you look at what happens with sports authority they go out of business sales. if you are going to buy sports
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goods, are you going to go to dick's or sports authority of course, sports authority because they are going out of business you may see that and desperate retailers trying to survive. charlie o' shea. >> it is been a record the nasdaq is closing in on 25%. some of the strategists are hating on this rally stocks are going higher, what should investors doing now >> gentlemen, welcome. ron, you say this could have a sign of a blow off, what do you mean by that and what does that imply for what i should do, ron insana >> first of all, i have been wrong. >> you can be wrong until you are right. >> no, not that bad.
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global economic growths and strong earnings and sales. you are starting to see some technical events and new highs and lows and a little bit lagging and the nasdaq is shooting 2% a day. you run some risk of it getting a little long and interest rates sort of backup and you start to see the type of fundamental issues that could slow the market >> answer here, i would think one part that come into your answer that the idea of economic growth has now gone back-to-back at 3%. >> i think that's the big contributor. i think the environment is totally different today. i think ron is correct its gotten a long time, nine years into a market cycle, it is away from setting a record so it can continue and the under pending of the market is looking solid. earnings are continuing to grow and overall enthusiasm for stocks continue. there is no place to go globally to get yeel todield today i think the market will continue
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to go on today >> the moment when everybody is so bullish and when you see a 2% move in the nasdaq in a single day, sets off alarm bells. >> the nasdaq is not the nasdaq of 1989. their revenues are faster and dallas fort worths are faster than the broader market index. that's the big point that many should understand. we see our rules moving us away from traditional safe sector like utilities and consumer staples that's bid up high on evaluation perspective particularly in some of the dividends strategy that we have own. with people chasing yields today, the thing that i am worried about is pushing prices on stocks higher than they should be because they are not gross name that cannot grow exponentially like some of the others can >> ron, lets say that i have some profits that i built up this year as many people have, how can i continue to
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participate in the market, leave room for more profits but maybe not get greedy where woiuld you be adding and subtracting? >> it spreads wise and as interest rates start to go up. you start to see high yield bond under perform. there is still many ways in the stock picker markets where you look at apple and mcdonald's and you look at relative strengths of the out performers, they continue to deliver and out perform. i think you stay with the winners and shed the losers. that is time warrant strategy. they're not that absorbant and amazon, it is what it is they have not provided a study stream of market but they are growing and taking market shares like crazy >> shawn, you are telling people that you like microsoft at this point which is a huge winner today and has been all year. >> we like microsoft
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we like microsoft, they generate $31 billion worth of free cash flow and they are transitioning successfully from a databased business to the cloud business and they are a dominant force there. they just raised their dividends. th it is just reemploy business back into it to grow it or pay it out in a former dividends think back to 1989, you could not get dividends from microsoft and now they just raised their dividends from 10% >> 1999, you got dividends from gdp. >> yes. >> how things have changed right. >> sean o' harra. >> and ron insana, thank you very much. brian covering cbs is joining us right now
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>> hi michelle, how are you doing? >> you often see the acquiring company and their shares fall and the company that they're going to buy, their shares go up it is an arbitrage that's happening on wall street is that's what's happening on cv and or shareholders do not like this deal. >> it is a couple of things. buyers go down and shellers teticalte theoretically goes up. there is something in play of amazon going into the pharmacy space with the licensing that they got yesterday or it was announced yesterday of them going into 12 states that's putting a lot of pressure to the whole supply drug chains. >> so yesterday when the news reports broke, cvs have been down sharply because the president was threatened to sue
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everybody in the house care sector these news breaks and those cvs care goes back to neutral so they definitely recovered and investors seem to like this and we got news that amazon is going into space what's the bottom line and why is it down today was it because of amazon >> if you look at where cvs is trading and walgreens. that's the amazon trade. you can look at the drug's distributor, we have discussed that a lot today >> yep >> i would say that's the topic of the day >> do you like this deal should investors like this deal? >> i do like this deal one of the things that's happening and if you look at cvs and you take it from that perspective, why would cvs want to buy aetna i would lay out different things they lost different contracts last year and they have been vocal wanting to plug those holes.
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aetna is there launching their contract to date that is good way to lock the contract so there is that and honestly, it is a denfensive play against the end of the store it is a good way to fight the pressure from amazon and broader front end consumable business from cvs >> all right, thank you. >> thanks michelle here is what's coming. ability to trade on trucking future if you are able to preorder an iphone 10, congratulations, get comfortable because you may have a long wait ahead. plus, massive move in the emerging market, we'll tell you where the action is and all that and more, coming up on power lun. 'power lun.
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right in the heart of the financial crisis, lun. its. it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor.
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o'ha o'ha you know you can trade all kinds of futures, right? you can trade futures on maritime freight you have not been able to trade trucking freight futures i got it out now >> morgan brennan is here with more details >> okay, so this could be a game changer for u.s. trucking. $700 billion industry larger for most commodities that have
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future markets maritime phrase as brian just mentioned, the baltic exchange for a long time. you can lock in for a price now, you can do shipping in the future and enter trans risk. here is how it is going to work. you do not lock in on space on a truck when you trade these futures. you are trading against an index of rates truckers like when rates rise. carrier will say $1.50 on a route. on the flip side for shipper, it could be the opposite. they can go along and hedging against spikes like the ones we are seeing following the recent hurricane. it is almost like and i don't think transit would say this, it is like taking out price
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insurance. it is what the company is looking to do and if the concept takes off, this could bring stability and transparency to the freight market which in turns could affect the balance sheet of many different businesses across many different industries this could be very interesting with that, i would like to bring in a special guest, craig fuller and you are joining us from chattanooga, tennessee, today. >> thanks for coming >> thanks for having me. >> why are we only having this conversation now >> it is a great question. all markets evolve naturally trucking is distributed and the capacity is distributed. they are over the road only in the last decade have we been able to get to the point of realtime price discovery because of the trucks out on the road were making independent decisions through voice brokers calling in and talking to brokers over the phone but
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through digitalization, we are at the point where we have realtime prices and have an index that's created to track those realtime prices. >> so a lot of commodities, the contract is linked to physical delivery or a physical service, how come that's not the case here >> well, it is difficult to actually, no true loads are fundable in trucking there are a lot of different service requirements and commodities and expectations that shippers have in terms of a load of hay is different than a load of electronics or shoes you need an index to track the averages in the market and shippers still have certain specific on time requirements. really, the risk to the carriers is the spot rate an index is the best way for carriers to get to exposure and understand what's happening in
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realtime of the market >> only they were born in the back of a greyhound bus. you were born in the back of a truck. you grew up trucking in your blood. this is not a trucking company what are your data sources and if this market is so good and lucrative, why is a goldman sachs is already in it >> that's a great question we partnered with benchmark index at >> who's that? >> your own company? >> no, it is a trucking load board that also does -- they are the plats of trucking. they provide the realtime price discovery, aggregate that through 600 different sources and they publish an index and we settle against that index which means whatever price that's painted of that day when the contract settles will be the price the future contract settles against. >> why isn't somebody else
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already figured this out >> you need industry players >> they don't have that. >> we only have recent evolution of the ability to get realtime price. the trucking companies and broker will use, it takes industry folks that understands the issues and the opportunity of the industry. what we have done is we have assemble the team that makes up 60 billion a freight >> you have shippers and truckers and freight orders who are going to trade in the market starting next year we have a commitment of large number of 60 participants of shippers and truckers. >> thank you for joining us today, craig strong demand for replacement vehicles in the houston area helping them bounce back the ceo of group 1 automotive.
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how are you doing earl >> i am fine, thank you. >> i guess you guys are celebrating the houston, astros right now. >> you bet, i am going to the game tonight >> i wish your team all the luck in the world >> describe business conditions in the last six weeks. >> well, the last three weeks of september which was about a week after the hurricane ended were just unlike anything i have ever seen in three weeks of september that we were really open and customers were out, we sold about double in terms of new car sales over what we expected to sell in a normal full month in zep september and used cars of 50% more it was insane for three or four weeks. and still elevated now probably in double digits but the crazy
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time were late september >> are you able to get the inventory you need to meet the demand >> we have been able to. we have not had any significant inventory shortages. the manufactures helped quite a bit. we are a big group and we are able to move cars in from outside the market >> what about the other side of the story and that's inventory that you may have lost as a result of the storms how have you come to a full accounting of that how many cars and how many thousands of millions of dollars were destroyed >> well, we had about 500 cars impacted at a 15,000, we had inventories so we did a good job, about 300 of those were totaled. the total cost of the storm is $14.7 million. within that was the cost of that damage inventory >> that was a damage inventory and damaged to the physical structures of your dealerships and so forth, i assume >> and paying our employees for
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the week that did not work >> so that's really quite amazing out of an inventory of 15,000 only 500 were regarded as losses what did you do to protect yourself and how did you do it >> well, we have a risk team this is at least our six hurricane since i have been in group 1. we have stores all along and florida and the gulf coast and so forth we have done this before and you know the hurricanes are coming so a week ahead of time we are moving cars to safety and we know which lots are likely to flood and we put pumps on some of our lots. we daid a good job on that. >> last question, your stock is up 50% since hurricane harvey making land fall it is more than selling more cars how is the pricing dynamic changed? there was a thought that with a lot of inventories being removed because of the hurricanes.
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what have you seen >> yes, since the hurricane there is been an uptake in pricing in our margins but we also had those spectacular quarter in the uk where the market was down 9% and we were up 3%. we had some non hurricane feedbacks factor that were positive as well >> did you think prices remaining firm >> i think overtime there is more pressure and there is so much competition in the market right now. i don't expect that to be long-lived so, i will say many of the manufacturers are adjusting productions down in the fourth quarter. that's critical to keep prices we'll see how that goes. earl hesterberg, have fun tonight. bring a car for jose altuve. >> he is, he's a monster
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>> he's awfully good >> thank you what small business to say, the mandates are a job killer, we'll bring you the debates. from baby to alibaba we'll tell you what's powering this rally, "power lunch" is back in two. you know who likes to be in control? this guy. check it out! self-appendectomy! oh, that's really attached. that's why i rent from national. where i get the control to choose any car in the aisle i want, not some car they choose for me. which makes me one smooth operator. ah! still a little tender. (vo) go national. go like a pro.
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. hi everybody, i am sue herrera, here is your cnbc update at this hour. facebook vows to do a better job of verifying advertisers and verifying ads. >> officials in the spanish province of catalonia including barcelona declaring independence today. crowds removes spanish flags and spain says it will not allow spain to break away. >> tiger woods will serve a year on probation and paying $200 fine and performing community service. the golfer was arrested in may
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after police found him unconscious. it is the first time dak prescott hit the number one spot which includes jerseys and t-shirts and pet jerseys as well >> that's the news update at this hour. back to you, michelle. >> that's cute, good for him >> you got it. new york state said to become the state to mandate the company's must offer paid family leave. unlike federal leave laws, all businesses in the empire state regardless of their size even if they are small is going to be on hook kate rogers is here to look at the big issues for small businesses >> hey kate. >> we are here on uncommon goods. the workers you see here are facing taking care of a sick loved one, they don't have to make tough decisions between work and family. this company has a paid leave
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policy allowing up to eight weeks for care givers. >> providing our workers with an opportunity to balance their personal needs and work requirements is something that we think is in our business' interest as well >> reporter: now on january 1st, other businesses tlo hroughout state are offering policies that are similar to this company. it is fazed in overtime and allowing in twelve weeks of paid time off critics of law says it places an unfair burden on the state's smallest employers >> administratively it is going to be challenging for them and especially for smaller company if it is a key person or very important member of the staff, they're required to permit them taking this leave. >> reporter: now despite of a big push of ivanka trump, there is little action on the federal level to tackle this issue
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now, we are seeing cities and localities are taking on head first and mainstream businesses around the country are watching this closely >> kate, i bet it is hard to find small companies that would say to you, we adodon't want to offer this because it is so expensive. it is easy to find a company that does it because boy, they would love for everybody else to do the same thing and they are all in an everyone plainfield in terms of cost. >> the interesting about new york laws is funded through payroll deductions the employees are fronting the cost and not employees which is rare a lot of smaller employees are saying what's mattering more is if the fact it is key workers and they may lose workers in week one or ten in week two. it will be interesting to see how it plays out once it is enacted in january >> thank you, kate preorders for the iphone 10 went live last night and sold out in minutes will scarcity depress total
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sales of the 10 or making conserhury fums ngor more, we'll bring you the latest ahead on "power lunch." t-mobile's unlimited now includes netflix on us. that's right. netflix on us. get 4 unlimited lines for just $40 bucks each. taxes and fees included. and now netflix included. so go ahead. binge on us. another reason why t-mobile is america's best unlimited network.
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so that's the idea. what do you think? hate to play devil's advocate but... i kind of feel like it's a game changer. i wouldn't go that far. are you there? he's probably on mute. yeah... gary won't like it. why? because he's gary. (phone ringing) what? keep going! yeah... (laughs) (voice on phone) it's not millennial enough. there are a lot of ways to say no. thank you so much. thank you! so we're doing it. yes! "we got a yes!" start saying yes to your company's best ideas. let us help with money and know-how, so you can get business done. american express open.
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lets get a check on the mark, the nasdaq is hitting a new record of today's high posting its best of one day gain since november 7, 2017 >> a check here, dow is up 30 points and s&p 500 is up 21 and the nasdaq is higher by 142 points strong tech earnings fuelling that nasdaq surge and amazon and google parents and alphabet and amazon is hitting an all time high today amazon hit 1,100 bucks per share this summer. >> kinder morgan and baker have rebounded. >> the preorder was sold out in
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minutes for iphone 10. is this going to hurt or help the iphone sales 10. josh lipton is in washington >> shipping is now to six weeks of the iphone10. that's due to strong demand and supply constraints do they just buy the phones they get their hands on simply waiting patiently for the new iphone 10 to arrive. >> it could give investors new clues for the demand of the iphone 10. >> so what does it mean for all the iphones. lets bri this is one of the good
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problems it sounds like a good problem to have, demands make supplies but does it put the fourth quarter number into question >> it is better than the alternatives >> we got to wait for too many discounted >> we don't know and we cannot tell from the preorders. we don't know the total supply and supply allocated preorder is the thing i would say is revenue numbers are below what people are suspecting and if it is a supply issue, that's something they'll look through >> ed, how genius is apple >> it is $1,100. no one pays that you know what they pay >> $39 a month >> absolutely. >> sticker shock >> we are used to paying each month for everything
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>> for phones and years now. now the models changed and it used to be we are subsidized by your carrier and now you are buying it out direct >> did you buy one >> did you go on 3:00 a.m. last night and got one? >> i went to sleep and i set an alarm for 2:50 and i was ready i had to wait until 10 after i did order a phone and i had to wait until the week of november 17th did you keep on clicking of the first ten minutes? >> no, it keep on stuck on a screen i wanted to go back to sleep but ultimately i did order it and i have to wait until the weekend of 17th. >> that's pretty far away. >> are you going to make it? do you want a smarty >> did you do it because you are a tech columnist or did you do it because man, ed bait want that phone
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i did it partly because i was curious. i have never preordered a phone. this is the first time i have done it. >> really? >> do you get concerns that the wait time is so long and the phone is not going to get here until christmas and are you going to put it off entirely >> pretty much if you are interested in this phone in particular and willing to pay the money that you have to pay, we are not over concern of those sales >> will they talk about demand on their earnings call next week >> sure, they'll talk about it qualitative qualitatively. >> ed bait, when you get the phone, will you come back? >> give us a call. >> can you make a phone call on it >> if his battery is working >> our face id >> with or without the make up >> i don't know, that's true
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>> we are seeing major rallies across the globe over the past three months, the rewards and risks for your money over seas, when "power lunch" continues
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a live shot at barcelona as the spanish prime minister is going to dissolve the catalan parliament the firing of the regional leaders are going to be met with strong opposition in catalania where thousands have been celebrating the independence declaration. >> we have seen spanish stocks sell off but the impact on markets and financials have been limited to just that country it is hitting an all time high today. >> we have been there before in catalonia and it has no t reat e this point >> usually they give them more money. >> and kept them in the fold
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this feels qualitative different. >> do you think it is going to lead to violent? >> if you are die hard catalonian and you are told, hey, you don't have a vote and you don't have a government point. >> guns are not nearly as persuasive as it is in the united states. here we are talking about guns rising up in the government and there is not the case. it will be difficult >> the rally in the u.s. is impressive it is the lag of moves that we are seeing across the globe. argentina is up 16% and japan is 9% and russia is up 8% and china is 8%. is your money better over seas >> joining me now is jim
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seymour. >> if it is that simple, you want to be in japan first. you got a growth of 21%. at this time of the year, it gets marked down it is following through. so you have better epf growth. we know the fed is in place and if the dollar is moving higher, that can be good for europe and japan. >> just put together an equity of basket for me, where in the world would you be >> if you give me the same country, i will say brazil, i will let you wait. i think brazil can be an over wait here. turkey is a place also, a big pull back, the current account is over rated. japan is out performing and has the best earnings growth be careful at the end of 114 and 115. the dollar yen is helpful to the yen. i think japan is embarking on a secular change in cam p ex
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i think europe is very interesting. i think the dollar may over shoots in the next couple of weeks. >> what about spain, you look at that and you look at ibex today, the rest of europe seems to holdup would you cherry pick out there? >> i would if you buy the ewp, i think it is something along the lines of a 6% some of the big telecom companies are much healthier i think there will be volatility i am not on the ground but i have plenty of friends who are i thisty headlines are scarier than the reality i think when you think of catalonia and the fracture a couple of weeks ago, that puts abbott a bottom in the dollar >> all right, lets switch gear, the stock is getting crushed and not nearly as bad as the crush
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we saw, maybe you will feel a little better today, it is down 10% right now and the power lunch stock, draft there you are alpha and seymour, what would you do if you had your brothers outside of the stock draft. >> i was proud of the owner of mattel a lot of negative news have been priced in. there was not necessarily the sense they're going to eradicate it what i heard last night it is something that i could change my view i don't change it today, i stay in the stock hey, we clearly will not meet june targets it makes you say that these guys don't understand the business. a as an investor and analyst or pm or whatever you are out there.
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toy r' us is a short term issue. >> i can back it up from an e-mail i got what he said to me is this, if toy r' us are that important to us, meaning we would have your y distributor is hurting, you're going to do whatever it takes to keep them in business. in other words, perhaps this reaction is overstated to toys "r" us. >> it is it's part of the inventory glut, they're up 10%, that's a big part of last night's disappointment as you say, the secular story is amazon is heading the brick and mortar retail shops, it doesn't mean as a consumer products company that you're necessarily beholden to that i think on some level, e-commerce is a benefit to these guys they've got to get their brands refocused, i think they're going with more of a technology strategy, they clearly have to get their balance sheet in place, s&p downgraded them, although, you know, that may also be a sigh of relief as people sometimes wait for that event and say, okay, now we know how bad it is. but is it a story to jump into tomorrow h probably not but it's not a story i would
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jump out now >> tim, thanks see you tonight on "fast." >> thanks. all the focus seems to be on amazon shares of alibaba have been soaring, actually outperforming amazon year to date. is it too late to go ga ga over baba thank you. we're back after this. let's get started. show of hands. who wants customizable options chains? ones that make it fast and easy to analyze and take action? how about some of the lowest options fees? are you raising your hand? good then it's time for power e*trade the platform, price and service that gives you the edge you need. alright one quick game of rock, paper, scissors. 1, 2, 3, go. e*trade. the original place to invest online.
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alibaba moving higher today like every other tech stock. alibaba is up 100%, it doubled this year. question is, is it worth your money? stacey gilbert with susquehanna. "trading nation" team. stacey, simple question, is alibaba still a good buy >> we don't cover it fundamentally, heading into inini earnings, market seems to be pretty dwivided here. the implied move is somewhere between 5% and 6%. when you compare this to 4q and 2q, that's 2% and 3% respective. there is extra risk being priced
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into the quarter here. one of the takeaways i would say is options aren't cheap. think i'm going to buy a call option, i'm bull isishalibaba, you're buying it with excess volatility because there's the expectation for extra movement to answer your question, brian, our event-driven analyst has talked about this several times and we mentioned it last time on the show, we think sticker aaba is an interesting alternative given its 15% stake in baba, given 771% of its value is comig from baba. that's an area we think is kind of a more interesting alternative for those that aren't in baba looking for an alternativ alternative. >> matt maley, what say you? is. >> i'm like stacey, kind of in the middle here i'm sorry to say. the stock has had a great run. it stayed above its 50 day moving average all day long,
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however the last few weeks it -- earlier this week it broke below the 50 day moving average. on the positive thing, however, though, it did not make a lower low, did not get below september lows and today it bounced strongly and back above the 50 day moving average we're midway between the october highs and september lows right now after such a big run, i'm middle of the road 37 the next couple weeks are going to be very key. whichever way it breaks, rallies further or rolls back over is going to be very key over the next couple weeks. >> i hope they buy an auto parts retailer so we can have a segment called baba o'reilly, it will be a teenage wasteland. >> oh, my god. >> for more "trading nation" head to our website. "check please" is next. >> how do we top that? now the latest from tradingfatradin tradingnation.cnbc.com and word from our sponsor. >> in a losing trade, avoid letting your emotions get the best of you. too often, traders want to add to a losing position, but experienced traders will say your first loss is your best loss in other words, take a small ss and move on before it becomes too big.
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with 15,000 miles is in the minimalist styles, black leather, silver and titanium finishes has the motorola-issued car phone inside, going to be put up for auction at an icon sale. >> buy it. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. >> k"closing bell" starts now. >> have a great weekend, everybody. hello, everybody and welcome to "the closing bell." i'm kelly evans at the new york stock exchange. >> welcome back. you missed nothing it's been very quiet week. >> no major earnings, no big market moves. >> not much going on this week. >> any parts of the country declare king independence. >> no, no, none of that. today, what a day, big story is technology the nasdaq soaring today the dow is not telling the whole story at all amazon, alphabet, microsoft, intel, we could add to that list as well. all hitting highs toda

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