tv Fast Money CNBC October 30, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
welcome back and good-bye. >> see you tomorrow. we'll hand it off to "fast money." "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq marketsite. i'm melissa lead tim seemo brian kelly david see burg and steve grasso tonight on fast, is the t-mobile and sprint deal in jeopardy? craig moffett will be here to weigh in later it's been a drug best so what's behind the sellout why is one of ourtraders buyin this breakdown first the apple awesome rally. everything is awesome for the
tech giant it's a whopping $80 billion in market cap does this prove you can never really bet again apple, will apple become the first trillion dollar company tim seemo? >> i think you should never question the able to slowly change what the drivers you for your company we had this release. we then had concerns about whether they were actually getting the end demand meep why i think a lot of people have been trying to figure out a higher multiple for apple. so for a company that's added almost $1 billion in the market tap cap, which you can all do your searching and realize how much bigger that this, it's been an extraordinary run i'm a little concerned about the anecdotal that tells you how strong the demand is
>> we focus solve on the 8, it became such a consensus, sell apple off that event, and then off of the lack of demand. >> it was a buying opportunity for sure. >> when no one is there to buy it, they're there to buy back their stock. >> let's be clear about the service big. their goal is to get it to 20% when you starred toss margins slip, you sell the stock so it's going to work. >> million my apologies you can own the stock -- >> with better margins on the other side of the phone. >> what happens after that >> you know, everybody, just
like tim have been saying service are coming out they are growing services, but it's nothing compared to this. after this party, you can still own apple, but after this party, there's going to be some -- there's going to be a bit of a hangover what's next? >> i think that brings up a great point. i am in the ecosystem. i will tell you more and more as things go to the cloud, that ecosystem is starting to lose its grip on me i don't need the laptop anymore. i have google to do that for me free with photos, videos, and the like i have music through google now on my monthly music. so there's less and less. >> all the same things giving our tech companies an expanded multiple, so apple home, the
autonomous, you don't think apple is not part of tomorrow's car argument and discussion? >> i agree, but what's the -- why isn't it going to be one of the top places all along >> the problem is they're sect movers >> does it matter? >> sure it does. >> no it doesn't here they are they're dominant in phones. they're dominant in music. >> they were horrible for a while until they came out -- >> but she's right, though, it doesn't matter whether they replicate the sam suns, people wait for it, and they'll do it after samsung. >> but it's going to take a long time between the phone and when apple home all of a sudden becomes the next driver of the business. >> the car is not going to be a driver for a very long time. the home is not going to be a driver you're loose looking as a maevive -- >> this is a company that's executing on the core business than anybody out there, as steve
said, a very high-margin product by the way. >> a.b.k. was going to say the cycle will independence, maybe three quarters, toward on three quarters to gain that momentum, but do you think that the home or the car or any of the other businesses -- >> haven't we had this conversation over and over and over again >> it comes back to the iphone x. that's all it comes back to, because you buy it because of the iphone x but tim, you keep saying -- saying you could say the same thing you just said. i open it. i'm sort of playing devil's advocate alone here.
have they really innovated anything >> remember how beats was supposed to revolutionize the music industry i haven't ahead about it for a long time. i do think it's a -- >> apple is updating every single day if apple's operating system for 20%, 30% of the automobiles in five to ten years, that's innovating and you don't know what they're doing. facial recognition, bill deal, i don't care if there's facial recognition. that's not why i like it the next guest gene mouncer joins us from minneapolis. we had a couple analysts being more bullish about the x, saying that units shipped will be greater, therefore they'll be recognized in the december
quarter. so the numbers will be more feasible second issue is what happens after the x? what sustains this massive run in market cap we have seen the past month or so >> just to put it in perspective. buy side things about 15% of the units will be the iphone x if it sells as many as the 8, that's going to power 5% up side to the current increased estimates on the street for next year i just want to point this out. ago you've been listening to the die beat here, what's loss is these are slow turns that apple will have, and just really key in on thursday night none of the guidance matters all that matters is the comment tears about the first week, if they say that's trending, the stock lip based on that, but to the section question, and i
think it's a good topic to have, because in six months wide talk about what's after the iphone x. ultimately i think the stock does pull back, as we get to the end of this. it has to, but they have balely put out this base. it will probably be about 1.1 billion active monthly -- and i think that's the irges i mentioned the guidance about the mix shift or the mix between 8 and 10 orders on the commentary and the conference call this week will we actually know? i mean, the numbers, in terms of availability of the x, that's sort of manufactured, isn't it we don't know what the true demand is except that it has absorbed the inventory that's in the channel. >> so the lead times, whether we are looking, five to six weeks,
those lead times are easily debatable, because we don't know over the last call it three major up ticks in the lead times, it's been accurate twice. but what's not available, is the stock is probably going to be down if they say something to the effect of the iphone x demand is similar to the iphone 8, i think the stock will be up. >> you're framing this as the demand issue is all you should care about i'm reading reports that shipments will likely be about $20 million, isn't that down 50% from where people had originally priced this in >> we're expecting in terms of iphone xs to probably be closer to $60 million >> of the x in 2017, i guess.
>> so the short-term demand issue is what i'm addressing. >> the short-term demand issue, i think they do not have a short-term issue i think they have a short-term production issue hopefully -- i'm trying to answer the question -- >> that's right, some of this is related to fox consequence you have read some of the stuff i have and then some. >> i think it's safe as to say we're going tons some boshsh. and apple looks like on a trajectory to be a trillion dollar company does that matter is that a concern for you at all in terms of its ability to innovate >> no, because i think it doesn't matter, you're just a e beb
beb be. gene, thanks a lot we appreciate it >> thank you okay so you're long. >> and i'm staying long term it's the equivalent of being a buyer ahead of earnings. >> long? >> long into earnings. >> i think you can stay long, i think you could probably buy it into earnings. the best thing for apple is if they have from production delays, because it prolongs how long people will hold on to see what the numbers are. >> but it's a trading show there's this trade verse investment stock that's moved like this with this kind of expectations, i don't think you have to buy is into these numbers >> i think there's very little that can blow this thing out of the water. >> it has to be just a little bert than expected. >> everyone got so negative on the 8. >> that's where we are, steve. >> i don't know. i think people are rolling the dice at this point
>> to he point, though, is this going to be the sell the news event, right >> i think they have gotten clear. that's my point. i think we've gotten cleared with the second the fact events. this is truly people who missed it or get on the weights bandwagon and sell it off the 8 numbers. i think they'll be pleasantly surprised. >> i understand, but the sell the news event was on the release, and how innovative it was, as opposed to what sales and demand are. coming up, a wild ride for spring and t mobile, with conflicting reports about the merger hit the streets craig moffett is here to break it down. and merck having its worst two-day stretch, just the latest victims of what we are calling the earnings drug best he'll explain. and something is hatching that could signal trouble r fo
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it shall lows of the session, our own david faber came on and shot down the initial records, calling them exaggerated lots to unpack here. for more bring in craig moffett. craig, good to see you. >> good to be back. >> where do you think the deal stands if there is a deal? >> look, i think it was probably overstated they were just on the 1 yard line anyway and probably overstated to say the deal is over now t mobile had been telling everything that sprint uses significantly over-valued. and then the reports cake out a couple weeks ago saying they were going to do a net market deal
you have to believe they put a lot of pressure on at the mobile d. and i'm guessing, and this is just speculation, they went to soft bank sauce we had to do a much more attractive deal, so we're back to where we started, which is a stealmate on price. this has to be -- and t mobile believes that it's significantly over-valued. >> if we had a -- or no talks anymore whatsoever, what else would come out argue bless evident to bo, because everyone has known this deal was coming. if they said no way we're going to do a deal you would say
they're close tore doing a deal. other than the department of justice saying it's over >> what do you think the odds of a deal happening are >> we've always said the odds senior -- and the odds are about 50-50 that means about a 60% chance that it doesn't, and the stock's pricing like an 8 on% or 90% chance that's still way too high. our guess is if the deal doesn't happen, the fall-to price would be let's say dish is the next target here? >> no, they don't have regulatory -- the problem for dish is the satellite business
is a sort of toxic business. you see that with. >> i do think -- at least there's more optionality here. and a stand-alone scenario for dish is unattractive, so you have to fijd something to dance with if sprint and t mobile are tied up, there's arguably nobody to dance with when lieuic it he way, they sold off immediately, right the marketplace is soft of telling you, if you will, that four players are much more price competitive than three. >> that's a great point. >> so the question is, how does the doj look at this if they decide to come back on
>> doend is going to -- is anticompetitive. and it's good for competitors to let the deal happen. and that's a real issue. >> craig, we're going to leave it there. >> thank you for stopping by >> i've been in t mobile for a while? >> not anylodger. >> i'm friends with john ledger. that being said, i know nothing other than what's on this desk >> and also telephone, verizon have lagged as well. i don't know if you dabble in a dish or if you dabble in one of the other players. you sort of the have to let cooler heads prevail >> i've been in and out of it. i traded it a lot. >> nothing to do with the deal or expectations? >> no, way before.
>> obviously the best of the bunch, so i think you can stick with that. i would let it shake out a bit time sort of on your side here. >> i think the issue for t mobile is what is the next for them craig outlined it's a challenging one. t mobiles, as you said, quite strong, some of that was because of the lower handset sales, but their top line on services has grown 8% to 9% in a very competitive environment. still ahead, the chart master says one high-flying sector has gone too far too fast, i'm melissa lee, you're watching "fast money" on cnbc. in the meantime here's what's else is coming up on fast. >> announcer: talk about a drug bust. >> say hello to my little friend >> not that kind talking about big pharma something just happened that had
one of the traders buying the breakdown. we'll tell what you that is. plus, just when you thought you heard all the bold kays for bitcoin, b.k. says he may have found anheotr. he'll tell you what it is, when "fast money" returns because, when you really, really want to be there, but you can't. at cognizant, we're helping today's leading media companies create more immersive ways to experience entertainment
knocking down the proposals. the president laid out his principles and it doesn't include the phase-in, and cost an estimated 1.6 trillion, and that is already bigger than the tax cut that republicans are allowed to talk under those complicated rules they want to use to pass tax reform they're going to have to raise money somehow somewhere, and they're hoping phasing in that rate cut could help them lower the price tag without sacrificing too much of the benefits to growth business is not necessarily opposed to this idea the rate coalition represents about three dozens of the nation's business companies,
their goal is to get to the rate as soon as possible, as long as that 20% rate is permanent back over to you >> thank you stocks took a tumble on this news considerable reaction in the bond market pricing and lack of tax reform. >> intratoday we were 247 on the ten-year and now we're back down to 237 i think people got ahead of themselves once again. giving they guys the benefit of the doubt i think is an extraordinary extension of faith. and if you look, you know, at the retail sector was massacred today, is that part of this consumption follow-through i think so look at those type of things to me if you get higher oil
prices and rate stabilize here, and you don't that will be a i think the market has expectations, and trading at these levels because of that if the phase-in is so terrible -- >> it's not so terrible. i don't think they get anything substantive done, they talked about the 401(k) dropping from 18 to 2400, now back up. the back tax, thrown out state and local tax, so for me, i don't think anything gets done i think the market takes a bit of it on the chin and then rallies, because we're rallies on earnings, but rates, that's all about the new fed chair, and i think what people have to realize that new fed chair will more dovish than they think they are today.
a tax deal puts a lot of pressure on the fed. the fed has always been very clear. we are not going to do anything on speculation of what they might do good for them, by the way. rates are going to go higher how much was priced in, and it shows -- so the market is selling off a bit. it goes to show you have to keep our eye on the ball. >> one group of stocks, materials. the sector has been on fire, but one says it is time to take profits. why? let's find out carter >> thanks, melissa for the entire bull market materials have lagged.
now they're quite deep and extended it's my thinking that one should back away from what we know, of course, when things are trending, they will vacillate, which is perfectly notal, vets the s&p up only 15, so i want to focus in on that. here's the long term this goes back one of the principles is you can get far below or above have end tr trend, but at some point we get mean reversion we get into that kind of things where the odds are diminishing so now, this really tells the tale this is just sad stuff this is the entire -- there's your plunge. this sector is you want.
yet the entire time it's a negative proposition and so now that's a long-term setup. in fact it's been underperforming for the better part of 25 years the recipes is just too steep. back to that, here's another way to look at it. we just see the presents, so we're talking about something, market sector, it's lagged the entire bull, and yet the day-to-day is just too steep if you measure trend with the trend line, or if you measure it with the moving average is the presumption is didsh i'm making the bet, this is the etf xlb, i'm a seller. >> i think carter comes on over.
i don't think there's ever really a question. you want -- the sector is underperformed. >> it's a commodity, it's digging around -- from time immemorial this is sort of subsoil. it's nothing >> it's 3% of the s&p. the entire sector is only 3% one stock is 25%, so -- >> that's my criticism i totally hear you, and i believe in mean reversion trades, and i think you unwound a major commodity bubble
i think there are ways to invest in those miners, and in the recoveries stocks, and they are great opportunity now. >> they're individual equities one materials that are good, you can pick one over another, but as a bet, right? they have the problem that they have done nothing for you long term, done nothing for the entire bull market and now they're actually too steep >> so, when you take a look at a caterpillar, which theoretical benefits from this sector, does that mean sense to you i think it's way too steep, but it beats, yet again, at some point caterpillar will have a mighty fall from grace, just like everybody else. it's defied almost all logic at this point, but this just in,
zinc rolling over, copper, aluminum, rebar, shanghai all under pressure >> so a question for you -- whenever i look at tech always, i always try to look at the reverse and say what have i done and what can actually make it bullish if i'm bearish and vice versa. when you look at this chart, what makes you think that i'm wrong, and if china does have this exponential growth, and we're going to the first quarter of next year, do you see something that's at all positive >> issue, one thing can happen, something that's extended gets more extended -- caterpillar, bitcoin, pick your thing ittic go even further than the imagine nay allows >> carter, thank you. >> thank you, guys. >> carter wirth, when you said bit coin, you went --
>> uh-oh, too far too past still ahead, health care stocks sitting out the earnings rally, but trader are betting the tide could about return. plus as i mentioned bit coin, we're going to talk about it now up more than 530% this year. our own b.k. here says something inveorare sssts mi being this really he'll explain what that is when "fast money" returns it really scared him out of the markets. his advisor ran the numbers and showed that he wouldn't be able to retire until he was 68. the client realized, "i need to get back into the markets- i need to get back on track with my plan." the financial advisor was able to work with this client. he's now on track to retire when he's 65. having someone coach you through it is really the value of a financial advisor. your bbut as you get older,ing. it naturally begins to change, causing a lack of sharpness, or even trouble with recall.
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sgro welcome back to "fast money", we're more than halfway through a pretty euphoric season for stocks there is one group sitting on the sidelines. for a little stock therapy high, meg. >> it's what's happening in the drug sector. actually health care hasn't been that out of space. the stock fell 6% on friday,
continued to fall today so investors starting to worry about their reliance, but that's not the only bad story gilead and celgene also disappointing investors, really concerns brigging back the 2020 growth prospects some people warning how are those franchising going to look as well as one of the bigger biotechs so people will be watching that very closely, but m & a will be something we'll by looking at
closely. a lot of people starting to speculate about maybe the bristol-myers type of deal it's been bad this earnings season, but up almost 20%. large-cap is in need of mab. to get the growth trajectory on -- we need to see more m & a. >> but that's something you invest in, right s you don't invest -- >> and -- here's the problem, that's been amacro theme in a sense, right for a while and it hasn't happened at some point people start say, listen, i bought xbi, the etf
for biotech, i'm up on it since the election it appears that maybe the deals aren't coming. >> i think you draw a trend line, and it needs to hold essentially around here. i think the reaction in merck, especially when i read the analysts on the street, they talk about the stuff they can value, and they talk about their core business, and -- and they affirmed numbers on this company. so 15% move in three or four days, i think merck is overdone. >> the issue, though, is by pulling the application, right for the drug in europe for lung cancer, that's one of the biggest indications, right not only do they lose those profits from that drug, or they also fall behind in terms of the competition, so they possibly gain that share. >> the street has been divided on what that means exactly
and at the same time ever core was on, so they're kind of defending in agrees with you that the fall has been overdone. the concern is this is a huge market in lung cancer. about $15 billion a year, and as merck is delaying these data and this application in europe, this gives the it opportunity to catch up with data of their own. >> meg, thank you. sticking with drug class, pfizer is set to report earnings, and the options market is implying pretty being moves mike will break it all down. >> the options market is expected to more about 3.2% by the end of the week. that's in-line, would represent about 6.5 billion changes in market capitalization. we saw a lot of call buys today 35 1/2 calls, we saw a flock of
95 had you been of those, so these are bets that pfizer will be make to the up side. which tech out the full show on friday. are any of the traders buying these names. stop me if you've heard this before, but b.k. loves bitcoin find out what it is when "fast money" returns it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late. td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike.
welcome back to "fast money. shares tanks 8% as they lowered the price target to eight bucks. from crypt occurrence sit will slow do significantly next year. i mean, we sort of knew this from the conference call, but -- >> yeah, i don't think it is first, i don't think you should have bought amd to bet on bitcoin anyway because decline had banned bitcoin at discounts on ebay and different places like that soient do you have the tail wind
to say crip occurrence sit, because it is -- it's the amd. >> think thought, and that stock was up on the day. so if you look at the other 70 -- >> search long and hard to find once that on the way in you probably get ahead of your skis and probably get out of it, and like b.k. said, they probably shouldn't have been in it, it's amd advisories the nvidia. i think the stock is going lower. >> when they're conservative in their guide, too, i think it was for a reason they were in the last quarter, low quality earnings elements, so it doesn't surprise me they pulled off -- this is not an indictment to me a big one. >> i don't know how you can
separate it, how it has no -- there's no indication at all, like our gold prices are tied to caller pill lars stoic gold can go up they might not have the right equipment to mine gold. >> you think bitcoin goes at the same trajectory? >> you want to pitch is right now? >> i'll give it a shot >> everybody's worried about whether or not the market cap can go i'm going to show you the three things that matter to me so here right here first of them, bitcoin is going to amazon and the banks. what do i mean it's a way to remove the third party just like to retail. they go direct into consumer
this is btc, the bitcoining of the banks. so number one you have a disruption going on. number two, if i look at any investment, i want to look at how big is the market. by jamie dimon, he moved $7 trillion around the world every day. bitcoin is only $100 billion market cap the up side is 10:00 if not more does anybody wants this product? there a demonstrated demand? on the bit did the coin when you have an address, it's a -- it's still increases, so now you have a product that people want in a market that is massive, and there is a disruptive technology gut on to me those are the three elements of any investment that i want, and bitcounsel to me at
$100 billion microcap is so lo, it's one of the best investments out there. >> brian, it's tim. >> good to see you. >> there's criticism of bitcoin from a technology perspective, that this is 1995 technology relative to some of the other tokens out there speak to that and speak to bitcoin verse ethey'rium, and why people should choose one or another. >> thanks for calling in, first of all, tim, good to hear from you. bitcoin has a massive lead, but i remind myself that myspace existed well before facebook, well before goinged existed. bitcounsel is older technology right now it's having a tough time upgrading, i don't know if it disruption, but i do know a token, which is more of a computer and can do if/then statements, maybe that will be
the one. i know i want exposure to that area. >> why don't we vote are you buying or selling b.k.'s pitch on bitcoin >> a caveat. i would sell it on bitcoin, but i am my play in the space is buying overstock i think it had epps me feeling more comfortable. >> >> i am a buyer of bitcounsel i've been on this for a long time i think if you're a believer of a bitcoin, you've got to own it. >> tim seymour. >>ite not a buyer of bitcoin, but i think it's a good for banks, by the way. i think they'll become more efficient than ever. bitcoin, there's other ways to do it. >> one to buy, and another is buy it in another way. we want to know, though, what you out there think, so please
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glee welcome back to "fast money. time for our move of the day retail stocks getting crushed. on track for its worst month since january of 2014. office depot with a downgrade j.c. penney get hitting. walmart also lower, do you dare buy this in the beaten down retailers, are or are this 'no-touch? >> you always wind up getting smacked in the face. you always want to be too early, so i'll say it for the ump tyneth time, this is probably the time to try the bottom again. i think so much gets -- >> there's that possibility, but when you look at names like a macy's, we talked about the brand, what is that worth? what is the real estate worth? now it's trading below $6 billion. the real estate has to be
worthing in north of $6 billion. >> he's the tough guy, does not like getting smacked the bottom line is if you bought the xrt six months ago, you're flat i think it's going through a bottoming process, i own macy's. >> citi says it's a risk. >> i don't own it for the dividend i think there's some real estate action there i think the business is starting to get some feet until it, but i'm probably in the minority, walmart has had a major, major run, so there are stories right here and now -- >> i'm right there with you on walmart. i totally agree. i would be selling walmart with both hands i wouldn't buy a macy's or j.c. penney's's. >> i am long j.c. penney, you
say you would not buy -- they're still generating -- even on the low estimate, they're generates 200 to 300, you don't go out of business when you're generating that kind of cash flow. >> you don't invest in that name. >> i've one of those people who have tried to buy and gotten smacked, just like steve i am starting to sour on the idea that the real estate is available. >> >> still ahead, with you buying bitcoin, but there's still time to vote we'll reveal the results right after this
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here's the drumroll. and for the first time ever, the words tonyi braxton and bitcounsel are used in the same sentence the majority of you said, no to b.k.'s bitcoin pitch no, i am not a buyer >> 47% said, yeah. bitcoin world, that's fantastic. time for the final trade >> i love toni even more than b.k. buy the xrt. 30 is your bottom. >> b.k.? >> i mean, i love tim, too, but i love toni better, so buy that
one. >> after earnings, continued, i week long leer >> it continues to work. eye melissa lee. thanks for watching. see you back here tomorrow don't go anywhere, "mad money" with jimrar ar rht w. cmesttsig . my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here tolevel the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starlgts now hey i'm cramer, welcome to "mad money. welcome to cram america. other people want to make friends i'm trying to make you money. my job not to entertain but educate and teach. call me or tweet me @jim cramer. this is a really tale of two cities style