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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  November 8, 2017 5:00pm-6:00pm EST

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being reported right now, it's surprise that go the broader market didn't take it harder >> you think they think it's not arbitrary, just political? >> just strictly this one company, that could very well be the case >> all right michael, thank you, as always. we're glad you were hired here too. that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" starts right now. "fast money" starts right now. live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's time square i'm melissa lee. tonight on "fast," one hot stock is cooling off, square, following a huge run this year we'll hear from ceo jack dorsey. plus it's judgment day for retail shares of department stores have been sinking on their earnings reports. we'll tell you how bad it can get and the one name that can buck the trend later, it's been one years since
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president trump was elected, and his most important piece of legislation hangs in the balance, tax cuts. and we'll hear from one republican congressman why he's voting no. first, one of the biggest deals of the year between at&t and time warner, worth about $85 billion, could be in jeopardy following pressure from the department of justice after a series of threats from the trump administration let's bring in our own andrew ross sorkin who helped break the story, he joined us on the "the fast line. andrew, what's the latest? >> reporter: a back and forth now turning into a public spat between at&t/time warner andth doj. what we're hearing now or what we heard originally was that the companies were trying to -- or that the companies were in touch with the doj and the doj had said look, the only way the deal is going to go through is if you sell cnn and the turner assets or you sell directv.
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that was something obviously that at&t and time warner have thus far been unwilling to do, they felt the deal was going to take place and be done by the end of this year, that now is in question the real question now is whether at&t -- or whether doj is willing to sue and whether on the flip side, at&t and time warner are willing to press ahead and participate in a suit and defend the deal. and all expectations on our reporting suggest that may very well be where this goes. it's been fascinating. and the public spat, there was a statement from at&t's ceo, randall stevenson, who came out publicly this afternoon and said he never offered to sell cnn or divest cnn so it's fascinating. on the other side we're hearing from the doj side that it was offered up >> andrew, you've spoken to
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randall stevenson in the past. what is your understanding as to the strategic intent of this tie-up at what point does this deal become strategically not good anymore if they have to divest some assets? >> reporter: look, i don't think that they are prepared to divest assets, period, full stop. and that's been my understanding. we'll be interviewing randall stevenson tomorrow afternoon, so we'll get more on this but my real sense is that, and i think the expectation even inside at&t and time warner, is that to the degree there was an offering of you sell directv or cnn turner, that the directv piece was almost a strawman to force the cnn turner issue, meaning it would be almost impossible for at&t to sell and divest directv there's some view in washington now that this would have been a way for the trump administration, the doj to claim
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some form of victory and perhaps an easier way for at&t to let a deal like this get done because cnn was never the goal line of this deal. this was always about hbo, it was always about all of the film studios, it was always about the other content. the cnn turner piece was secondary in the totality of this transaction but still is a big part of it. >> andrew, it's karen. let me ask you something, i don't know what the merger agreement provides for, but let's say at&t decides to sue. does time warner have to stick around for the entirety of that or is there a drop dead date they can think about, maybe we should look to sell ourselves elsewhere? >> reporter: you know what, i don't know the answer to that, i need to dig into the merger agreement itself my expectation is that at&t has an obligation to continue to pursue the deal even under duress, if you will, or under pressure from the government i believe that time warner will
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try to hold them to that >> andy, andrew, some news sources are reporting this is literally something coming from the president, you know how he feels about cnn. it seems petty, and if it is that, will that blow over? >> reporter: there's been a lot of speculation in the last several hours about the comments trump made even on the campaign trail about wanting to break up a deal of this magnitude you can see from a political standpoint we could be arriving at a moment like this. having said that, the courts are not political per se, so it may turn out to be somewhat different. i will make this one note, it's something that a lot of people have noticed this afternoon, the new head of antitrust enforcement at the doj is a fellow who was interviewed before taking this job and asked what he thought of the deal.
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before he ever had this job, he thought the deal was fineand actually there was very little antitrust law or theory that could block a transaction like this so it's fascinating that he now gets into this role and apparently has a very different view of what this deal really means. >> andrew, thank you so much for phoning in andrew ross sorkin you won't want to miss andrew's big interview with at&t's ceo randall stevenson, you can tune into "power lunch" and see that live what's next for at&t/time warner >> there's no way for me to answer that question how do you trade time warner on the back of this i look at it, obviously the entire sector, valuations have been ratcheted down. we've all had that conversation. what's the right multiple for time warner in this environment without a deal let's back that out for a second i would submit 12 1/2, 13 is not a ridiculous multiple for time
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warner that gets you about an 84 1/2, $85 stock, which interestingly enough is where we took off from at the beginning of last year or towards the end of last year, i should say you're getting to levels, deal or no deal, not to play the tv game or whatever that game is, you get it towards levels where it probably makes sense as a standalone to be long the name >> karen, what's your reaction when you see this? you also put this with the backdrop of knowing that disney is or had been interested in buying some assets from 21st century fox. >> as an arb, i wouldn't like it, because it seems to me like at&t very well may say, fine, we're going to court that is a very protracted timeline, who knows what it will be also remember, the deal is not worth what the headline originally was because it's half cash, half stock, and at&t has traded through the bottom, the deal is only worth like 101 now.
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so i actually think time warner has some more downside and i don't think it gets resolved quickly as an arb i would not be inclined to jump in. >> amy klobuchar is a democratic senator from minnesota in october 2016, they announced this deal, she was against it. so i don't know that it's just a trump thing, this is both sides the aisle. they talk about competition, they talk about customers, is this fair and all the rest of it the interesting thing from a trading aspect, two weeks ago we had some monster put buying in time warner, twx they were buying 7,000 of the november 95 puts paying a dollar those are now worth $7 if your multiples are right, guy, there's plenty of room for these to still -- >> pete, it's funny what you said about the democratic senator from minnesota they're supposed to oppose a vertical deal like this, there hasn't been a vertical deal blocked like this for four decades. the fact that the president, we know he's used to obstructing
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justice, okay, there's no reason why he did not make it known that he did not want this to happen i suspect this blows over. i suspect this deal gets done, to your point. >> so the deal gets done >> i bought the stock on monday. and i'm down so i bought a little more today. still down and i have a call spread in december against it, okay? i'm kind of giving myself a little room here >> i should have bought a put spread to hedge yourself >> okay. >> as an option guy, i'm going to buy a put spread. >> i'm just telling you what i did. i put a little leverage to my long >> but if you're wrong, you've got something covering you to the downside >> the viewers know i'm rarely wrong. >> here's the question does this indicate a more active department of justice when it comes to blocking deals? should we be -- >> it's ridiculous it's the most ridiculous thing from the administration, they're blocking vertical integration
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deals like this. it's ridiculous. >> i guess the question is, could we be looking at a more activist stance when it comes to deal making, activist being against bigger is better and should we be concerned about some of the other deals? >> i think this is very specific to at&t/time warner and some of the things that you alluded to >> it may have been driven by the political side of things >> i wouldn't make the quantum leap of worrying about all deals. i understand why you might be able to do that. i think this is specific to this deal >> this is far more of a competition. if we're talking about semiconductors buying one another like we've seen, and we've seen that start to grow, obviously the qualcomm deal this week, throughout this year we've seen more and more of that starting to flash up so i don't know that it's against all deals necessarily at all. but there are specifics. if you're in areas where the competition has already been reduced and it's going to reduce that much more, i think absolutely we're going to see more of this >> let's do -- let's say the
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deal does eventually go through but at&t has to go to court, it's protracted. what happens to each of these stocks how do they trade? >> i have at&t will find the bottom we've played this math game. there's no eps growth there. we had our friend, help me out with his friend. >> craig moffett >> mr. moffett talked about the pitfalls, i know i'm getting old, but the pitfalls at&t has in front of them now that gets you down to a $31 stock. >> that's your time warner trading at 12, 13 times. why does disney deserve to trade it up? >> they don't deserve -- >> why does time warner deserve a premium? >> look at what people are bidding for, look at what assets they're bidding for. why would disney be interested in fox, a, and the only thing
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the justice department wants at&t to divest is the good part? >> let's close the loop on this. the other venture we're going to choose -- >> no, can i tell you something? so the republican administration breaks up this vertical deal and -- >> we have a limited amount of time >> -- comes in and buys time warner so you're going to let the japanese buy it? it's the most ludicrous thing on the planet >> there are a couple of scenarios that could happen. the other scenario is that the deal doesn't happen. what happens to at&t and time warner >> well, if the deal were to break tomorrow, there would be short covering in at&t, just as arb set it up. that's a brief phenomenon. i still think there's general pressure on at&t that we've talked about a lot, that that is still there. can i just go back for one second >> one second because we're out of time. >> the department of justice thing, i can see, oddly, this republican administration not wanting to allow mergers that
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have job cuts, the synergies, people get eliminated. speaking of media stocks and deal making, fox is higher in the afterhours session on earnings let's get to julia boorstin. >> reporter: the executive chairman kicked off the earnings call saying they will not respond to recent press speculations about fox doing a deal with disney but lachlan murdoch says there is a need for scale as many analysts have expected there is is a lot of talk about the growing importance of scale in the media industry. and let me be very clear fox has the required scale to continue to both execute on our growth strategy and deliver increased returns to shareholders >> reporter: lachlan and ceo james murdoch also highlighted strength at fox, that while supporting fox as an independent company could also be valuable to disney. they dismissed concerns about cord cutting by saying the
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company now has nearly 3 million subscribers to its digital tv providers and saying the strategy of focusing on valuable content is working >> overall, our performance underscores the success of our strategies, including owning and investing in the must have brands and ip distributed to global consumers every minute of every day. >> reporter: james murdoch also saying they're optimistic about the potential to make more money from digital models. they say they want to make their content more broadly available on all platforms they say they're optimistic that hulu will continue to help offset declines in the total pay tv universe. and overall the whole pay tv business will grow as for concerns about nfl ratings and fox's interest in paying for sports, they say they believe sports is a key driver of viewing when they'll look at each set of rights as they come up not a ton of news on sky, they're confident the deal should close by the end of june
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2018 >> thank you, julia boorstin on fox earnings pete, he seemed to firmly defend the path the company is currently on >> what i like most about disney and this potential deal with fox, and that's obviously the part they can't talk much about, it grabs them some international, grabs them some content direct to the customer and all the rest of it you look at national geographic and some of the different areas they'll get some content i think a lot of that makes sense. obviously they won't be able to get all of fox because there's too many things. the justice department would never approve. if nothing else, and i've been very critical of them, but bob iger has made very few huge moves of late. he's made some great ones with marvel and the rest but he hasn't made the moves we were hoping he would to get in the streaming world. this could actually augment that and push them further, faster. coming up, retail on track for its worst year since 2008 and the big department stores are getting ready to face the music tomorrow with their
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earnings reports how bad could it get and are any of the traders buying plus tax cuts are hanging in the balance, some republicans aren't getting on board. we'll speak to one of them, republican congressman leonard lance from new jersey about why he's in the no camp. one stock is surging, analysts can't raise their mu mctio eug chore "fast money" ahead
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welcome back tomorrow is judgment day for retail stocks as they gear up for earnings the group on track for its worst year since 2008. the biggest names, jcpenney, nordstrom's, kohl's, are down significantly in the last month. macy's, kohl's, nordstrom's reporting tomorrow, do you dare buy these stocks or is it about to get a lot worse karen? >> i don't, for big department stores, i don't have them. i'm concerned about the business if you listen to, for example, kohl's, which i do own, they talk about north america being one of their weaker markets. i'm concerned here macy's, the stock is down a lot,
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there's a lot of debt there, though i love to look at debt, it's trading off. there's fear so i don't want to be in it for tomorrow foot locker for me was similar, department store for athletic shoes, that was a very bad trade. i don't want to be long macy's here >> pete, on macy's >> i jumped into something the reason was we saw some huge options coming through this is not a long term play, this is literally playing on tomorrow's numbers the reason i say that is even the options themselves, november options are going to expire in a couple of weeks. they're playing the earnings themselves 20,000 calls were blocked today at the 16-18 call spread is what they bought and they sold puts to the downside. if i see something like that, i've got to be involved, i like what i'm seeing. big box, it's difficult on these department stores. >> i put it on the xrt today,
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you'll see mid-30s over the next few months here. just to make one other point, apple, we saw the lines for the x. they stealthily raised the price on the 8, they raised the price on the x to the thousand dollar entry point. if you're apple super cycle people and i think a lot of dollars are going to these phones, i have to assume this is going to hit retail the next few months >> do any of these names look good on the charts let's find out with rob, hi. >> thanks, melissa let's start with the xrt you have to look at the long range picture. real price in the top panel. big up trend from 2008 into 2011 you start getting this toffee pattern developing it's holding around that 38, 39 level. probably a place you could trade it if you were aggressive. here is the key point, the big picture, that relative performance trend is deteriorating to the downside. think about what the banks looked like back in 2006 and 2007, that relative strength continued to deteriorate
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and it was an important signal that the group was under a lot of pressure and to avoid it. i think you stay clear of the xrt, it's a high risk trade if you're going to play it on the long side. here's kohl's. it's into a lot of surprise support. again, long term relative performance, suggest you stay away from the stock. there's no evidence of bottom. when you take a look nordstrom, same type of thing you're add some support level here in the high 30s, but relative strength is still bleeding it's way too dangerous to be trading these stocks on the long side, in my opinion. then lastly, when you look at macy's, a name that's already broken that support, and relative strength is all the way back to where you were in 2008 if you were owning an etf, you would be performing all the way through. if you have to be in the space, home depot, like other large cap growth names, is still one of the better stocks. there are some concerns in terms of this relative performance not leading. but again, it's a retail stock from a timeliness standpoint
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you've come back to the 50-day average. i would rather be long home depot versus a lot of other department stores and retail names. >> rob, thank you. good to see you. guy adami, all the major ones we had highlighted before, they look crappy on the charts. >> crappy is a financial term. >> a technical term. >> you should put up the trade school demo while i make this following points nordstrom's, if you looked at it, talk about a round trip. this stock was a $37.50 stock. last july it had a huge rally for a number of reasons, not least of which it was going to go private that falls apart we've round tripped it we're going into earnings, that's not a reason to buy these stocks, what is is a monster short interest and potential for more headlines for a trade, nordstrom might be interesting in earnings. >> the discount side of in order
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str nordstrom's. >> the rack. >> the rack. the e-commerce side of their business the flagship stores are killing them they've probably got to close a few more but the racks, oh, boy >> if you have to be long, rob says, you would be long home depot. >> listen, for home depot, up 23% of the year, lowe's is only up 9%. walmart, up 30%. you have target down 20% there seems to be a yin-yang here on every situation. costco just rallied 10%. i think the whole sector for the most part, there's a handful of leaders and there's a lot that act like crap, okay? >> again >> a technical term. to me, that's why the xrt seems the thing to short on every rally. >> it's why home depot is attract. look at the growth they have, their online was up 23%.
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23%. this is a group that's actually taking amazon right on, head-on, and winning right now. >> i like that still ahead, square lower in the afterhours session despite an earnings beat the stock up this year this has been bullish. are any of our traders buying this dip here's what else is coming up on "fast. abandon ship everyone for themselves! >> what's going on with republican support for trump's tax plan we'll tell you which stocks could be the most vulnerable if tax reform sinks plus bitcoin is going bonkers. and something happened today that suggests it could go higher we'll tell you what ats, enfa meyreturns.
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welcome back to "fast money. more uncertainty surrounding the gop tax bill, a number of republicans coming out in opposition to the plan
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ylan mui has the latest in d.c >> reporter: the price tag for this plan is now $1.7 trillion, according to the congressional budget office. the rules they're trying to use to pass this bill cap the cost at $1.5 trillion i talked to congressman mark walker who has the influential republican study committee and he questioned the cbo's math and objectivity and says growth will take care of the deficit >> this does create some deficits early on. we believe in long term growth over the next decade, even nonpartisan organizations are saying we could be 4, 4.5%, that could more than offset the deficit heading into this issue. >> reporter: the 20% excise tax on imports would hit multinationals businesses and conservative groups are against this. lawmakers, we hear, are trying to massage the bill to address their concerns the senate is expected to release its own tax plan tomorrow three people briefed on it told
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me that the excise tax will not be a part of it. but the senate has to work harder than the house to find ways to pay for this bill. they've got to deal with that $1.5 trillion cap as well as a rule that says that the bill can't add to the deficit after ten years. so those are just a few of the land mines facing republicans, melissa. several members of both the house and senate are raising concerns about the cost and some of the popular deductions that could go away. back over to you >> ylan, thank you, ylan mui in d.c. represent leonard lance is one of those house republicans who does not support the tax plan in its current form, he joins us now. congressman lance, thanks so much for joining us, we appreciate it. >> thank you, melissa. >> what is the crux of your opposition is it the repeal of the state and local tax deduction? >> it is i represent new jersey new jersey sends a great deal more revenue to washington than we receive back. i want to retain the deduction
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for state and local taxes. >> are you worried more broadly about the republican party, broadly speaking, if tax cuts don't go through in some form, this could really spell problems for the party in terms of flipping control of the house for the 2018 mid-terms, for even beyond that. i mean, more broadly as a republican, do you want to get behind this plan what are you willing to deal on here >> i certainly favor tax reform. and there are certain provisions in the bill that i favor, for example lowering rates, doubling the standard deduction, elimination of the amt these are all very good points in the plan. but i hope that we can continue to have the deductibility of state and local taxes. and that means there has to be further work not only work here in the house, melissa, but also work in the senate and i look forward to reviewing the senate plan when it's released and i presume that will occur tomorrow >> i understand what you like,
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but in terms of the congressmen who would like to see the repeal of the salt deduction, what would you say to them in order to get what you want in the bill >> i think that we need to have further discussion and further compromise i point out that states like new jersey subsidize the rest of the nation in so many ways we get less back for what we give to washington than any state in the nation. and obviously i try to represent what is the best interests of my constituents let me say that i think that this should be a bill that helps everybody and does not have winners and losers >> are there other parts of the bill that you would like to see go away? >> i would like it to be as revenue neutral as possible. i believe in a modest amount of dynamic scoring because you do think this will benefit the economy. but i certainly want it to be realistic. and i know that this is the viewpoint of many united states senators as well >> seeing, though, what happened
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in last night's elections, congressman, are you concerned that there is an appetite here for some change, that the majority, that the republican party has right now, may in fact not be as secure as before tuesday night's elections, so therefore getting something passed on tax is going to be extra important for the next election cycle >> certainly the elections last night did not go the way as i would like we elected a democrat as governor of new jersey and a democrat was elected as governor in new jersey. i point out that the district i serve, which hillary clinton carried by 3800 votes, the republican candidate in new jersey carried the district. so i think those stories can be overwritten. i certainly think the american people want tax reform and i think tax reform should benefit not americans and not pick winner states over loser states. >> congressman lance, thanks so much for joining us. >> thank you, melissa.
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>> leonard lance, republican from new jersey. pete, do you think taxes is in jeopardy the markets are telling us something may not go through >> i certainly would say so. this is a republican standing there in front of us and giving us a pretty good laundry list of what he doesn't like in the bill revenue neutral is obviously not even on the table right now. there's a lot of different issues you can see going on that makes this seem like this is not only going to push into 2018, but how much change are they going to be willing to make on both sides, quite frankly, the republicans and the democrats, to get something done. this is the most important thing that these guys are working on and they're not getting anywhere so far >> do you think banks and small caps are really telling us that the markets are concerned about this >> i'll tell you what's telling me the market's concerned about it the xlu, the utility etf if the market thought the tax reform was going to go through that should have stimulative for the economy, rates should go higher, which means the xlu should get sold off.
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the xlu closed effectively at an all-time high today. that's telling one story the russell, or those sold off the last couple of days, a little bit hire todgher today, was a precipitous drop, you haven't seen it yet. >> that's a great point, guy, but look at the ten-year yield, it should be reflective of this growth environment we're supposedly in. really importantly, the growth environment that all of those tax reform projections are made on that they're going to accelerate >> don't you think our rates are pinned down by the dovishness of the ecb? >> no doubt about it we're eight years into a recovery, we have republicans basing their estimates on tax reform on growth that's far higher than we have now. to me, reform is not happening, the only way it gets done in 2018 is bipartisan square sinking in the after hours, it's up 160% this year.
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we'll hear from ceo jack dorsey. bitcoin hitting a new all time hike today, up 60% in the last month, creeping toward the $8,000 market. much more "fast money" still ahead. what did you have in mind? i don't know. $4.95 per trade? uhhh and i was wondering if your brokerage offers some sort of guarantee? guarantee? where we can get our fees and commissions back if we're not happy. so can you offer me what schwab is offering? what's with all the questions? ask your broker if they're offering $4.95 online equity trades and a satisfaction guarantee. if you don't like their answer, ask again at schwab.
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welcome back to "fast money. an earnings alert on payment company square let's get to deirdre bosa in los angeles. >> reporter: payment stocks are on fire, this year, nonmore so than square, up 170% to date even though it beat expectation this quarter, shares are a little softer in the afterhours, perhaps as investors take some money off the table after that big run. this year square has been moving up market and signing up larger merchants. it continued to do so in the third quarter. part of that push was rolling out its new all in one hardware offering, square register. its largest merchants category, that's businesses that do more than $500,000 in annualized gdp. they now make up a fifth of square's gross payment volumes this is an important group because it boosts square's
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revenue and they're more likely to buy into ott offerings which in turn drives revenue in share's subscription and services based segment this quarter the company applied for a banking license as it built up square capital, its loan business, on the earnings call ceo jack dorsey was asked about its strategic purpose and square's approach to banking have a listen. >> the ilc represents an efficiency for us and allows us to create more efficiencies in the model but also allows us to just take a different tack on our business and make sure that we're constantly doing the right thing. >> reporter: dorsey also said that this is typically a year-long process and he didn't have any updates in that timeline lastly, guys, i'm sure you're all tracking this as well, i have to note that square's market cap is getting awfully close to that of dorsey's other company, twitter back over to you >> thank you, deirdre bosa these payment stocks pretty
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pricey, square what's a forward pe, master card 33, visa 28. do you keep paying up for these payment stocks >> well, square, i mean, it's down a little bit on this. this was a very, very good quarter. the only thing wrong with this quarter is it's on the heels of an enormous stock run. up 25 at the end of the summer a lot of it looked good, all of it is good the mix you talked about, the services, it's all good. it's just, you know, you have to really believe in the growth i'm long mastercard. i think that there's growth in the payment space. they are not at odds with one another, square and mastercard so i like this space >> pete? >> i love the space as well. i've not been in square, i've been in paypal, visa, mastercard >> why not square? you're a high techie kind of guy. >> they all do trade at premium pe levels, all of them what i love about visa and
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master is their transactions square, i opportunity was there and i probably screwed up and didn't get it. >> to karen's point, last quarter this was at 24.50, $25 stock. this quarter, it's a very good quarter but it's not remarkable in terms of what it did last quarter. they were extraordinarily similar quarters you say to yourself how much more is left in the name there is upside as well. i think tim recently did that, what do they call that thing, the power pitch? >> the fast pitch. it's "fast money." >> he talked about the venmo there's some examinaticompetitie space. if they don't sell square off on the back of this uarter, and i continues to rachet higher, we'll see it the same way. >> maybe one day you'll just pay for everything with bitcoin,
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surging to record highs, nearly $8,000 before pulling back a bit, following a potential split in the crypto currency that got called off by the developers which would have caused a landslide of supply >> this summer when bitcoin went to 2,000 to 4,000, it did it into the first fork, people were thinking i'll get a dividend out of it, i'll own bitcoin cash then bitcoin has obviously traded very well since then. it's had that huge rally into the second segue to x, it's called off and the thing goes up 11%. a lot of people were thinking it was going to go the other way. at this point nothing can stop it i'm by no means an expert, that's our main man bk here. to me, i would have thought the knee-jerk reaction would have been down, not up 10%. >> agree it seems like it was up when it was going to happen and up when they called it off so that's a great situation to be in, no matter what happens, it trades up all that having been said, however, i had to take some money off the table. >> really? >> i have no particular insight
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into where bitcoin is trading. but just being disciplined, i have to take the money off >> how long have you been in bitcoin, since it was -- >> since, i don't know, january, february >> and at that point it was what >> 9, 800. bk has done a masterful job, being in crypto currencies and bitcoin. kudos to bk. ahead, the one surging stock wall street can't seem to catch up to. what are analysts getting wrong? plus a surprising sector hit all-time highs today, reits. we'll tell you what the three names are and if traders are buying them. more "fast money" still ahead. something we all think about as we head into retirement. it's why brighthouse financial is committed to help protect what you've earned and ensure it lasts. introducing shield annuities,
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welcome back to "fast money. there's up with surge in tech stocks that wall street can't seem to catch up with. let's get to a man we can't seem to catch up with, dom chu in the newsroom, hey, dom >> reporter: melissa, i'm definitely easy to catch up with especially if you compare me to the likes of nvidia, the usain
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bolt of stocks it's been on fire for the better part of three years now. the single best performing stock in the s&p 500 last year it's still right now the sixth best performing stock so far this year, heck, even jim cramer named his dog nvidia it's gone so far, so fast, even the analysts who cover the stock seem like they're playing catch-up or are they? nvidia shares are currently trading 14% above their average target price nearly half of analysts cover the stock say it's a buy 38% say it's a hold. and 14% say it's an outright sell for added context, the highest comes from needham who has $50 price targets. the lowest on the street is wells fargo securities which has a $75 price tag on it. which begs the question, will analysts now up their targets even more to where shares are at now or perhaps higher or,
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melissa, do the downgrades start happening given that swift move higher back over to you >> all right, dom, thank you, dom chu back in the newsroom so pete, we'll go to you, you love the chips do you love nvidia >> it's an incredible space, i love the company i can't get my arms around it. micron, i'm in, intel, i like those names. i can see the valuation levels and the growth levels and i like what i'm looking at there. nvidia, i just can't do it at these levels >> reports tomorrow after the bell i know we started the year saying if they get half of what they're trying to do right, the stock is a double. effectively that's really what's happened so the report again after the bell tomorrow, i'm looking a couple of different things, but margins to me are going to be somewhat interesting but i would look at it this way. there's nothing wrong with taking money off the table after earnings tomorrow afternoon. if you mission t the 5% to the
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upside, it happens >> the options market is actually implying some pretty big moves, dan, why don't you head over to the plasma. >> yes, the option market supplies a $16 move in either direction. that's friday, just friday alone. on average, the stock has moved about 14% over the last four quarters, been a couple of big moves, a couple of small moves in that one. to me, kind of like what guy said here, at this point up 95% of the year, up 200% last year in 2016. who knows where the thing could go, trading at 14 times sales, which is a pretty hefty multiple it's $125 billion market cap i think that's the second largest listed u.s. semiconductor stock behind intel here so to me, this one's a pretty dicey kind of setup. i want to go to the chart. this is the one year look at this, this was the gap lower, 5% after the report on august 10th, their q2 earnings since then the stock is up 35%
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i think it kind of incorporates a good print and a good guidance here so to me, when you're setting up in this one, if you've been long, and you're up 95% on the year, that sort of thing, you're thinking about holding on into the new year, you may want to consider a collar selling the long stock and buying out of the money put that way you could participate to the upside and you have some protection to the downside, again, $125 billion market cap that basically has doubled this year to me, i think it makes sense to do some cautious ways to protect your gains >> thanks, dan for more "options action," check out the full show friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, reits to all-time his da wn asmoy"ghtoy,he"ft ne returns. i think it's terrific. your kids go to college and you start trading. >>yeah, 5 years already. 5 years, hmm. you ever call your broker for help? >>once, when volatility spiked... and? >>by the time they got me an answer, it was too late.
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td ameritrade's elite service team can handle your toughest questions right away- with volatility, it's all about your risk distribution. good to know. >>thanks, mike. we got your back kate. >>does he do that all the time? oh yeah, sometimes he pops out of the couch. help from real traders. only with td ameritrade. directv has been rated #1 in customer satisfaction over cable for 17 years running. but some people still like cable. just like some people like banging their head on a low ceiling. drinking spoiled milk. camping in poison ivy. getting a papercut. and having their arm trapped in a vending machine. but for everyone else, there's directv. for #1 rated customer satisfaction over cable switch to directv. call 1-800-directv.
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breaking news on the gop tax plan let's get back to ylan mui in d.c. >> reporter: melissa, two sources tell me house republicans are actively considering including a repeal of the individual mandate in their tax bill this could come in an amendment that would be offered tomorrow or perhaps during house debate on the floor next week and remember, republicans are
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searching for money to pay for the tax cuts in their plan a new cbo estimate that came out today said that repealing the individual mandate would raise $338 billion in revenue over the next ten years but of course republicans risk muddying the waters of tax reform by including the debate over health care in it but again, house republicans actively considering including the repeal of the individual mandate in the tax bill. >> ylan, was it just yesterday or the day before that you reported that five republican senators wanted to do the same thing? >> reporter: yes this is happening here on the house side on the senate side, still an open question. there seems to be growing support for including this measure in the senate bill as well >> all right, ylan, thank you, ylan mui in washington, d.c. as ylan put it, it adds complexity to this whole thing, which is already complex >> already complex and the idea of trying to get it done by year end was already quite a stretch. to throw this wrinkle, which is huge, i think makes it
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impossible >> it basically ensures that you will get no democrats involved and we know that they're really working hard on the democrats. so this is not happening they're like the gang that can't shoot straight, they already made a mess of health care >> let's go back to the banks, having some trouble, the russell having some trouble, high end utilities are signaling. what happens tomorrow? >> dan dovetailed what i said, we talked about the bond market, we brought that up the yield curve continues to flatten. that is alarming again, if the economy was as strong as everything suggests, it should be going the other way. >> i'll tell what you, any more of a pullback in financials and i think they're a buy began. >> what pullback are you talking about? >> we've only had 4%, you did the math for us. bank of america, jpmorgan, the
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rest of them i'm not seeing the paper flow into those names either, and since earnings we have not seen that i still love the financials. on this pullback i'm looking for the opportunity to jump back in. >> i know i'm sounding like a broken record. we're seeing one defeat after another on this legislative thing. sooner or later we'll get to the regulatory stuff if they don't get tax done, gary cohn will be out and you won't have the push you want on regulation the banks may be done for now. they had been consolidating after a big, big run, and they had that breakout. >> let's say everything that dan says is right. >> everything? >> just now, when it comes to financials is the financial trade done? >> is it done? in the short term. i'm not going to trade around tomorrow's tax news or the day after's tax news a lot of things are going on rates have come in, right? >> a pause eraylation, that's getting
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ovpled >> final trade, next throughout my career, i've been fortunate enough to travel to many interesting places. i've always wanted to create those experiences for others. with my advisor's help along the way, it's finally my turn to be the host.
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my ambition is to find something. me. ambitions live everywhere. synchrony financial gives people the buying power and financial toolsthat help make them happen. synchrony financial. what are you working forward to? final trade time pete >> we're talking nvidia. qorvo, it's going higher >> the banks sell off tomorrow, i still like the letter "c."
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>> xrt is selling on any rally >> guy >> hi. i get eviscerated, but nordstrom's. >> all right i'm melissa lee. . my mission the simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cram america. other people want to make friends i'm trying to help you make money my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you, call me 1-800-734-cnbc or tweet me @jim cramer we call it the trump rally, but how much o

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