tv Fast Money CNBC February 2, 2018 5:00pm-5:30pm EST
of the tie two weeks in a row i'm going to have to retire the tire after this, unless any make to the super bowl mex year. >> i'm a' not putting any more stock in the super bowl indicator than any other prediction or metric or anything else. >> tie gets retired with tom brady? >> it cab around another five years. >> guys thank you so much today. wild session what a way to close out the week that does it for "closing bell." "fast money" begins right now. ♪ >> "fast money" starts right now. a stunning selloff on wall street the worst day since brexit in june of 2016 at one point the dow shed 100 points it closed down 666 points. a demonic end to a tough week. of course, on a percentage basis it was only 2.5% still it's the worst week for stocks since january 2016. the culprit, look no further
than race. the ten-year yield surging to above 2.8% it spooked stocks all week long. the dow is off 4% from its all-time highs key question can't, is this the beginning of a bigger correction what do you do with your money right now. guy adami? >> kudoings to tim and brian last night who said tomorrow good news is going to be bad news i didn't see it 600 down markets don't end of old age they end on a credits endoof good news. you couldn't have had much better news a couple weeks than apple saying they were going to repatriate all that money. that was great news. a lot of people thought that would be the catalyst to take the market higher. that's not been the case i don't think you have put in a
bottom on a friday i think you see more pain next week >> the market is down. the vix is down as well. the tuesday after martin luther king day, then i would say it's all getting it back in the pool. >> the other side, it's probably as good a day as any to put a bottom on a friday put the chips on the table they are going long with the speculative plays. apple got drawn with the overall market it could have been an up day, if the market was up, apple would have been up everyone was worried about iphone x demand. purely speculation the average price raised means there was a demand for x the market goes higher next week >> apple was downgraded today on concerns about the x you had a reason, a reason. >> today's tape. >> there were a lot of reasons
to sell today's tape apple was not one of them. it has been telegraphed in terms of apple in terms of the rates, this is the preview of what could happen to me this isn't the big selloff. we might get a lib more. what we do know is the market is highly rate sensitive. there is going to be an adjustment period. in 2007 and 2008 you had a year of rate hikes. we have barely done any. he he you have to ask yourself when you are buying stocks did all of a sudden today the economic news that came out today signal the recession quite the opposite in fact it signalled things are getting better you don't need to panic too much we have some downside. i agree with guy look for a bottom next week a. trade. bottom here. >> investors need to check where they were a few days ago versus where they are now what changed .3% on wages is something the fed is going to take notice on they brought up their statement and put us on alert.
to the extent it was difficult to find a bearish setup last week i think on the same level you have a backdrop for earnings, you still have an environment where $2.85 a lot of these companies are still doing very, very well. the ultimate question though is how far behind the curve is the federal reserve. i think this is something that frankly, i think they are. four rate hikes which are getting closer to being priced in this year i think is difficult to not see as a reality especially when you consider -- this about what happened with the dollar w credit and liquidity all this time the fed is supposed to be tightening we have been making market conditions and liquidity conditions has been loosening. if anything it puts more pressure on the fed the tighten thing up inthat can happen in a hurry. >> on just the economic front some might say the fed is behind the curve. lay on top of that the impact of tax reform, which we have not seen the impact of financial infrastructure and you have a number of rate hikes expected this year and next year, right.
>> brian sullivan said the market likes to test new fed chairs guess what, well, today was a pretty big test. you are probably going to continue that test in the weeks to come. to tim's point there is no way you can't say the fed is behind the curve. it's pretty obvious to me. one other thing -- i've been trying to figure out this deutsche bank thing for some time it was down 8.5% today one thing i have noticed as volatility creeps up deutsche bank creeps lower. bk discussed this. they are the largest derivative spoke on the planet. is that lurking in the weed. the dax hasn't traded well for a week or week and a half. >> i don't know how we can say if the we look back in december the fed was perplexed as to where the inflation was coming from i don't think you can say they are definitively behind the could have been. a new chair, he has a wider
berth. maybe he sits on his hand more than yellen off. >> i'm not sure why we are getting out of shape a year ago the fed was wondering if they would be able to create inflation again. yes, the market has to re-establish itself. it has to revalue these stocks because of what's going on with rates. but, again, it's -- >> how much foreign money comes in at 3% into our ten-year there is a lot of stuff that can happen before we get out of control. >> one thing, positioning was so extreme going into this moment and the passive nature of the markets, we don't get into active/passive but everybody was on one side of the boat bank of america put out their bear basically sell indicator and said it's 11 for 11. we are at 7.9. we might have gotten there i think about just the dynamics of where people are positioned at this point. i don't think this market
believes that any blow backs shouldn't have been boughten during the year. it's interesting to hear you say that i'm not sure moe of the people are ready to step back in early next week. >> really? >> that's what melissa said. when you said we have not seen the effects of the tax reform. and then president trump comes out and says there might be a phase two of tax reform on top of infrastructure. any of those headlines that gain some traction. we have been all off the ball for the last couple of days. i think we had rebalancing at the end of the month it was a big part of the story i think you have to let it simmer next week we could see a constructive market. >> do you think we will see the dip pier step into the market? >> where -- >> they weren't there today. >> yeah, they weren't there today. >> one of the biggest differences teen this dip and most dips is the rate. the question is do they step in and the next question is should they step in
>> i don't know. i think you are going the see further pain before you see a bottom it could be monday in the first two hours, it could reverse and we will be giddy by tuesday arch i will say this. stocks like boeing, we have said this some time this stock should not move 3.5 day in and day out and caterpillar, after they reported a great number, great number, lousy price action to a large extent boeing had similar. all beats. it moved up. but the stock moved off of its highs as well. good news, bad price action, that you haven't seen in a very long time. >> for me it's different dip buyers and/or a different mindset. before when you were buying the dip, it wasn't going to be that great. now, you are going to have to say to yourself -- >> are you buying the dip. >> i'm going to look for exactly
what he said a day where you open up down 200. reverse and close on the highs that's the day that i buy. >> you said the backdrop was different this time. it was if you look at the s&p we were 7% above the 50 day, or 9% above the 100. and 8 or 9% above the 200. that was extended. now we are around 178 or 2%. now it's back sort -- >> you could have had emerging markets that were as overbought as they were in 2004 i probably said that the problem right now is there is not an asset class that looks as good other than cash or the dollar emerging markets were down 6% in five days because i think the fundamentals hold up somewhat. i think they are going nervous on rates. >> let's get more from the trump master who said quote this week will
publish a top for the market how big will the pullback be, carter >> that's the case whether we go lower now or back in time. i think friday as we know is going to stand as an important sbeer mediary.to three or six months, it's not going to be exceeded any time soon i've got the charts. q 4, which we know was good, going into january and what we've got now. i think you can do this as a reasonable approach. you can put the context meaning we really took off in january. even more than the sort of q 4 performance. and what i have over mere just to put this in context are the one, two three lines, and the level from the absolute high so we know that the absolute my was 2873 if you round up so we've already cut through the first line that would be down
3.2. down 4.8 would be 2735 that's right here. and then where we get to the bottom of this channel just to get back into the range we've been in, we would be looking at a 6.5% selloff peak to trough. and that would be a garden variety selloff, dip, correction, pulleck about, whatever nomenclature you like let's go longer term chart, and then with this so this is, from the lows in 2016 and what we know is -- not because i say so just because it is a fact. yes. that the market has responded to this trend line so well. were we simply to get down to the trend line in effect over the last three years, we are looking at right here, another -- the total would be 222 points, or 7.7% decline from peak to trough that is a very reasonable thing to i would say bet on. so whether it happens today -- i
mean on monday of course or whether it's over time or whether it takes a long time i think we can make the assumption that ar intermediate high was made. >> carter comes over come on, carter. >> unilateral decision by you. >> why not i mean, he is carter werth. >> true. >> i thought you had him in the pant onor parthenon -- >> come on, man. >> 7.7% peak to trough right now on the s&p 500 we are down 3.8% from the high. >> but i think what is important is we all look, my myself, certainly, to assign a reason for a sellout. you could be in a different moment a different time, and the news was rates just hit 2.84 great corporate results, market surges right? it's because of recent memory. $2.84 is a gift in my other condition. yes? and nothing has really happened. the real truth is banks didn't
act well and that was supposed to happen when rates -- i think the rate thing is not a big deal. i think people know that it was overdone it was excessively steep, and they will use any reason to sell and point to it. you approximate it has nothing to do, frankly, with rates going from 2.6 to 2.8 or that apple was a little lighter or this or that it's sometimes people just sell. >> that seems so unsatisfied in terms of an explanation. >> that's true. >> we are all looking for a reason why this happened. >> that's the human condition. myself included. why? was it the rate thing? 2.8 on a ten-year band bond. >> let's talk about your view on financials the-year-old curve steepened over the last couple of days went from mid 50s to high 60s. this should be what banks are waiting for. they are making money when the feds heighten the curve anyway why are banks acting so sluggish. >> it all goes to what they
should be or should not be acting well. people have been gorging on equities for a time. they decided to tell this week how much lower, unknown. intermediate high. >> when you look at the various secretaries, like a thing or whatnot, are there certain areas that concern you that look vulnerable if that breaks, i am not sure about the overall market. >> to that point not all things are broken amazon hasn't yielded at all and other stocks i think the more treacherous thing is the pounding that took place on a big name like exxon or ups this week some of that aggressive selling is not likely to be contained. >> carter when you talk about correlations or lack thereof when you say a ten-year versus this is not the reason why the market is selling off, what correlations do you till put purpose on if any or are you looking at the s&p in a vacuum. >> those correlation does exist. and sometimes they don't i think here now it's just a case of there was selling, and
we'll find out ultimately why. >> carter thank you. carter braxton werth see you on option actions in 15 minutes time. >> 15 minutes? we talked about exxon. we said it would get up to 8 0.5 and 90 in earnings i'm not saying exton is over but the is you could trade bull markets or bear markets. >> trim the weed. >> i can did not cut my flowers and trim my weeds. it is testing. because the things that are overperforming are your stories. i nibbled back in volatility in emerging markets and nibbled on commodities exposure 3.4. about global growth. i don't think so. >> i battened down the hatches and made sure my powder was try for next week. i'm looking -- i like tim's idea
of going back into the names that worked. >> speculative bet i bought rite aid yesterday and i'm going the add if it lags down ahead. >> fur worried about more selling ahead we will tell you how to buy protection for your poi. it's not too late. >> it's not just stocks, bitcoin is trying to come down from its low point this week. apple fushlly in a correction, down more than 10% from its all time highs. bun trader thinks the worst is over for the tech giants we will explain why. much more "fast money" after this
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the bitcoin blood bath continues with the cryptocurrency dipping below 8,000 today. it had investigators doing this. actual footage, by the way this the midst, it wasn't just bitcoin getting barbed at one point the global cryptocurrency market lost $100 billion in the hours leading into this morning. it lost $40 billion in market cap this week, ripple lost $15 billion in market cap. ethereum and litecoin also fell 13 and 26% they lost 13 and $3 billion in market cap respectively. all eyes are now on one even happening next week. bk will tell you what that is and why you should be watching >> let's do it next week we have a big event
here in the u.s. we talked a lot about the regulatory pressures from south korea, china and other places. we have got something coming up in the u.s. that i think could be a big event for us. on february 6th the senate of course abouting committee is having a meeting they are going to be talking about the regulatory oversight role of the s.e.c. should be when it comes to cryptocurrencies and virtual currencies the you will aboutish part of this is it could give regulatory clarity. one of the biggers problems we have had is investors don't know where they stand regulatoriwise what can they and can't they do because no one agency said this is our doe pain in and there is no regulatory scheme of the it could be a green light for institutional investors. once you fete that clarity and we can start to think approximate what's going on here, and in particular when you are seeing the regulations trying to stamp out bitcoin, it
could be an up today we had a big drop. look at the breakout point in december dan nathan talked with me about that last week we right down to 7900 this morning. interesting technical point coupled with a catalyst next week, to me, is probably a pretty interest risk/reward to start nibbling at bitcoin. >> brian, do you think institutions are waiting for a regulatory kind of green light or do you think they are waiting for something else, more platforms, for the froth to come out of this? you get the sense they should have what they need to feel comfortable. >> when i say institutions, family office and hedge funds getting into it. u.s. perhaps the asset allocators, the bigger ones are not yet into it. that's when i'm thinking on the green slight scenario. >> if today's market move has you pan i going, take seat grab a drink of water. we are here for you. the traders will tell you
whatnot to do in a selloff i'm million medical. you are watching "fast money," on cnbc. here's what's coming up. >> if you want to see something scary? >> look at shares of apple they are doing something they have not done under a long time. plus with the dow plummeting, investors want to know one thing, can i still buy protection. >> too late. >> maybe not we will show you how you can still protect your poish when "fast money" returns.
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welcome back to "fast money. today marked the worst day of trading since brexit a lot of folks see.700 point drops in the dow and are tempted to do all sorts of thing first thing you should not do monday >> take the emotion out of it. i know it's hard to do easy to say, hard to do. but that's what you have to do people say i want to buy apple on a pullback. here's your pulleck about. it's coming. then they will say i didn't expect it to go down for these
reasons. stocks never go down for the reasons you think they will. it always seems scarier than in fact it is to bk and steves and tim's point. if you have been waiting for a time to buy apple don't let this move take you away from what you have been doing. >> make a list of things you want to buy on a pullback. equally as important is don't rush to sell the things you have held for a long time that you truly believe n. there is algorithms it is a knee jerk reaction hold for a couple of days. >> that's a flowers weeds type of commentary. don't complicate your portfolio. a lot of people try to do too much at a time like this don't add a of the holiday simplicity is the best thing to do in a time of volatility. >> hold. just like in bitcoin when i get off sides or i'm not sure what is going on.
just stand there, take a breath, and don't sell on the lows. >> implicit in that is don't buy either. >> right, wait because you are emotional. you are not thinking the right way. to guy's point. >> people will throw hedges up there against their portfolio that they don't know anything about. be careful. >> time for the final trade. >> race is a name, ferrari, love the car, but den love the value. >> goldman sachs is going to do well with volatility >> grasso? >> we have heard a lot about health care. heard about amazon jp morgan, berkshire i believe rite aid was thrown out, baby with the bath water type event auto. i bought some thisseck would i think it goes higher. >> guy adami. >> busy monday i'm looking forward to seeing you on monday sthi won't be here. >> what? smile he be gone for two weeks on vacation. >> oh, my god. >> what are we going to tell the audience. >> i'm telling you right now, too. >> chicago merck an tile,
all-time high today. daily volumes up month over month. cme up on a bad tape that's a buy as well have a good time. >> we will see you back here monday at 5:00 don't move "options action" begins after thisre bak is helping build the new new york. once home to the world's image center, new york state is now a leader in optics, photonics and imaging. fueled by strong university partnerships, providing the world's best talent. and supported with workforce development to create even more opportunities. all across new york state, we're building the new new york. to grow your business with us in new york state, visit esd.ny.gov. to grow your business with us in new york state, when this bell rings... ...it starts a chain reaction... ...that's heard throughout the connected business world. at&t network security helps protect business, from the largest financial markets to the smallest transactions,
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. live from the nasdaq market side you are watching "options action" on the wild day for stocks the dow closing 666 points of on a percentage basis it wasn't as bad. s&p and nasdaq also reeling. the s&p falling 2% for its worst day since september 2016 the vix surging to its highest level since the election we will have more on how to protect yours later in the show. an apple falling out of favor. sinking 4%