tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC November 12, 2018 5:00am-6:00am EST
it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc. crude alert. oil is higher. sawudi arabia changing its tune now talking about cutting production. a new retail record. a major story in california. wildfires in california. a megadeal to tell you about in the data space this morning. the one stock tumbling as the fda looks to ban a certain type of cigarette the full details on this monday,
november 12th as "worldwide exchange" begins right now good morning, good afternoon, good evening and welcome from wherever in the world that you are watching. i am brian sullivan. thank you for starting your week with us. here's how your money and the global markets are setting up the day and week dow futures down 33. i mean, almost knock nasdaq futures are higher. we will call that a flat morning. one of the big stories though today is oil saudi arabia saying the world's oil markets are well supplied and is now talking about potentially cutting output we're going to take you live to a big oil conference in abu dhabi. the asian markets are recovering japan and asia higher. china barely shanghai up 1%, south korea was down just a bit. let's talk about one commodity you use every day in some form,
oil. prices rising a bit. saudis talking about cutting output after racing it got more on that? ceo of commerce street capital how quickly things will change they don't want $60 oil. they want 70 to $75 oil and i'm talking about wti here. >> yes, i do, brian, good morning. i think you'll see cuts from russia and others as well. i don't think the supply problem is going to go away. >> they call that ropec, opec plus russia. it seems that the saudis and the russians have kind of come together, even a little more than opec as an organization would you agree with that? >> i do agree with that, and i think they realize what's going on and we'll get along a little better than people think
saudi arabia, u.s. and russia are all at record levels of output and that doesn't seem to stop so they're going to have to be some cuts especially when you look forward >> 11.6 million barrels a day here in the united states. inventories which blew out so many expectations last week. how big of a part of the price decline story is u.s. production, dori >> oh, i think it's the major problem for those abroad our break even there was plenty of oil out there. the other is infrastructure issue. get oil to and fro and highways to get the production done. >> higher production is only a problem if you don't have the higher demand to take those extra barrels. how does global demand look to
you, dori? >> well, i think you're going to see they've cut the demand forecast the last three straight months so i think you're going to see a lot of numbers, all going to be soft they'll be different than our numbers here in the u.s. as those continue to soften, you'll see continuing problems with demand forecasts for oil. >> bottom line new year's day 2019, crude oil prices higher or lower than where they are right now? >> i think you're going to see them in the 50 to $60 range rather than the 60 to $70 range. i think it's going to be a lot harder for them to keep that price up with all of the production coming out and right now they're forecasting over 12 trillion barrels a day going forward in 2019. i don't think the world's going to need that kind of demands. >> dori wiley of commerce street
capital. thank you. we do appreciate it. thank you for joining us. >> you bet thank you, brian. the world's single biggest shopping day is going to wrap up you have more on this year's singles day. what did you get me, argin >> i got you a few presents here in china $30.8 billion. in yuan terms, that growth was 7% more but slur than 2017 it was the tenth anniversary and the bar is higher and the company was facing macro head winds. it cut its rev -- they spoke to reporters and said, look, we're playing into pretty big trends
globalization will continue. the middle class in china continue to come online and we are a platform for foreign brands it particularly pointed to some of the successes of foreign brands, particularly u.s. brands had on the platform. you look at apple. apple was the most top selling mobile phone brand on singles day on alibaba shopping platforms. starbucks also set its own new record in terms of sales for singles day buyer alibaba's platforms as well. the day raked in 1 billion orders by al pa ka to consumer they were. they're trading roughly flat i think it will take a lot more than singles day to get these stocks up and the uncertainty around the u.s. china trade war. >> big numbers thank you very much. we'll see you soon.
let's bring in jay rogers, nippon worldwide for those not familiar with singles day, tell them exactly how big this is. >> when you do a billion dollars of sale in the first minute and a half. >> in 90 seconds >> you know you're going to have a pretty good day. when you're up $10 billion in the first hour, you're pretty sure it's a good day 27% might have been lighter than people thought 30,% is like the growth they thought they would get. it's bigger than black friday and cyber monday and bigger than the two put together it's a big day of sales. >> alibaba used to be, you want to buy 75 golf carts, that's where you'd do it. >> right. >> now it's not just crazy it's loreal, huge global brands that are selling on alibaba, correct? >> that's been the big change. they started out with things you've never heard of and now
all the brands are playing in the game and brands sold well. even gap was selling on this big day. so it was all kinds of things like that. and we saw more interest from the brands on getting on than anybody really thought we would ever see everybody wants to play in this market and when you're getting those kind of sales you can see why. where are you going to get that kind of growth in the u.s. as far as the business goes so all the brands are moving onto it. i say all the time, alibaba, walmart, amazon get to divide up the world. the u.s. shopper and that's the try up fit. >> awa >> we're going to have to get an acronym. >> i like it >> let's talk about the united states yesterday, yesterday i went into a jcpenney but it was on the way to an apple store i was going to be there. >> no, there was other people
there. not to pick on jcpenney, but how struggling are they? >> consumers were strong the target said it was the best since july it's the best in one heck of a long time and i say all the time, if you're not winning now, you're losing because consumer is not going to be better than this it's going to be the best in the range so if you're not winning now, you're not going to win. >> that's my point i'm not trying to pick on jcpenney. >> i'm picking on them. >> you can, i can't. we're looking at it from the investor perspective which is if you are a retailer that is struggling now, whether it's jcpenney or otherwise, if things do slow down, it's not going to get better >> if you're not a maps --
maximum taxpayer, then there are problems if you hear the names of bon ton, sears, penny's isn't in danger at the moment because they don't have a lot of debt coming due soon but they do in 2023 and they're going to have to get a lot better pretty fast. i don't believe the kpe cities -- competition is going to let you get better. >> you heard our piece on lower oil prices lower gas. >> best thing i've heard anybody say is that oilt is going to fall to 50 bucks that's the one thing that's been pushing the wrong way against the consumer we will have rising woijs.
if we don't have energy and i don't think they're going to need to be a lot happier in 2019 they need to stay as happy as they are. >> jan rogers, nippon, we appreciate your insights a developing story outwest as the death toll continues to rise and wildfires continue to tear all across california nbc's jay gray live on the ground with more jay? >> reporter: hey there, brian. as you can see, the damage here overwhelming in fact, these areas that are burned out, almost like the sur guys of the moon the puls fires continue to burn out of control the flames growing and on the move again in the california hills. >> the winds have returned >> reporter: the santa anas gusting over 30 miles an hour at time breathing life into three major fires but campfire has
killed mover than 100,000 acres. >> at least two people have died in the woolsey fire. >> i can tell you we are still in evacuation mode the cities of hidden hills, westlake village, agora, kalabasis are still under evacuation. >> more than 1/4 million are outside of the fire. >> well, if we could stay right along the side on the ground, the fight with mother nature, hand to hand combat those strik teams getting support from the air from choppers and tankers dousing hot spots. the battle expocketed to continue along with the winds here for the next several days
>> those santa ana winds will continue to gust fanning the flames of all three wildfires, brian, through at least tomorrow evening. >> jay, absolutely gut wrenching pictures is anyone starting to return around where you are >> reporter: yeah, you know, very few, brian. the problem is we're getting flare-ups. we saw it overnight and this morning we've seen fire teams come through here making sure there are no hot spots the point a lot of fire officials are making, you'll be back let's make sure we don't see anymore fatalities or serious injuries >> we did a piece a couple of years ago on really low water levels and the drought particularly as it pertained to fighting fires you see the heroic planes
dropping the water. >> right now they say they have it and they continue to monitor it what they need more than anything is for those winds to drop off a bit, get a little humidity where they can and be able to make some headway. remember, we're just talking about containment. getting these things extinguished and put out, that will be months in the making >> live in westlake village. be safe. thank you for bringing us the story. we appreciate it. up next, it is back to the markets and your money merger monday. 8 business dollars ahead we'll take you to one of the biggest oil and gas conferences in the world we are live in abu dhabi as
i am a techie dad. i believe the best technology should feel effortless. like magic. at comcast, it's my job to develop, apps and tools that simplify your experience. my name is mike, i'm in product development at comcast. we're working to make things simple, easy and awesome. under that scaffolding there is the rockefeller christmas tree it will be unveiled in all of its glory here in a couple of weeks. actually, just a couple of days. hard to believe how fast it's going. there's wood under that wood all right, a major deal to tell you about in the software space on this monday morning let's get to frank holland with the details.
>> sap is buying qualetrics for $8 billion in cash this deal comes before qualetrics was set to go public this week. the company which was founded in 2002 offers software for collecting and analyzing data for market research, customer loyalty, product testing and feedback it gets most of its subscriptions from the subscriptions. they compete primarily with survey monkey which went public in september this is the second biggest deal in sap's history following the $8.3 billion purchase of travel software firm concur sap is clouding from its core enter priets business. they're trading down 4 mers percent in germany sapc bill mcdermott and ryan
smith will be on cnbc this morning. just the latest blockbuster software deal. >> frank, thank you very much. we'll see you in a few minutes. staying with deal news athena health has agreed to be bought by veratos capital and elliott management for $5.5 million. it's 135 a share will normally ly owns it meantime, aptio is being bout by vista partners the deal values them at $38 billion a share. that is a 53% premium. imperial brands are lower in london today this in response to a wall street journal report that the fda may be set to impose a ban on all menthol cigarettes. bat makes newport cigarettes
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you've got to keep your eye on energy prices today because oil may be set to break a ten day, ten session losing streak by the way, ten straight down sessions, oil's longest losing streak since 1984 i think when the show "dallas" was still on television all because saudi arabia is cutting it steve sedgwick has the story. >> reporter: brian, you know what it's like in these conferences. you were there in vienna in june it's a bit of a smorgasbord. we came off the plane, australians chatting to the saudis and russians who both said they would do what they needed to do to balance the oil market it comes as a backdrop of raging u.s. production. i've been speaking to the ceo of saudi aramco of course
the big speculation at the start of the year is when the ipo was going to be. that was if the big aramco ipo was going to happen. big question on valuations as well was it worth 2 trillion or was it worth $1 trillion as some questioned as well i spoke to armin nasser, he says he's still going ahead. >> the government announced there was a lot of things. the government needs to facilitate the ipo we would not have to go through all of these things and not to have the ipo not happening >> reporter: so then i was trying to do some numbers. when's it going to happen. we have a $70 billion petro chemicals deal he says that will take a year or so so he rec cons 2021 is still on the cards. that could be the long grasp let's go with it bob dudley is uniquely placed to
look at what's going on in the u.s. because they have huge shale assets and of course huge assets here in the middle east as well i asked bob what he thought about the cohesion within opec and the relationship between russia and saudi which is the bedrock of opec plus now bob thinks the organization plus its relationship with russia has legs let's listen in. >> the opec plus agreement and that coalition i think is actually stronger than people speculate. i think russia doesn't have the ability to turn on and off big fields like can happen in the middle east. that's a lot of things that have to dial up and dial down it's a debate in russia. we know that but i fully expect there to be coordination to try to keep the oil price within a certain fair way. >> reporter: brian, i just want to end on how things have changed so quickly in al gears on the 23rd of
september when they were talking about putting as many barrels on the table as they could to offset iran sanctions. then we got the big waivers coming through and now they're talking about taking potentially a million barrels off the table. isn't that an extraordinary turn around in five or six weeks? back to you, my friend. >> it certainly is, steve. i'll tell you what, what's extremely extraordinary in the last year or so. opec, it exists, and they are together, but the relationship between saudi arabia and russia, ropec, non-opec opec, whatever you want to call it, that seems to be the relationship that's moving the marked, agree or disagree >> i can't disagree. this jmmc has become so important that the iranians say that it's not fit for service and is disruptive of opec.
there are others who agree with you. back to you. >> i'm just good -- glad you're not having to get into a stairwell at 6:00 a.m. >> that's coming next month. >> we're making stairwells up next, raising the red flag. one top investor beginning to get nervous on equities. going to tell you what his clients -- what he's advising his clients to do with their money. later on, the retail rush. singles day in china smashing all records again. we'll take you through the numbers and they are big stick around at's critical think? a basketball costs $14. what's team spirit worth? (cheers) what's it worth to talk to your mom? what's the value of a walk in the woods? the value of capital is to create, not just wealth, but things that matter.
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your markets and money right now. wall street pointing to a mixed open oil looking to snap its longest losing streak in more than 20 years. smashing other records the world's biggest shopping day just wrapping up we'll run you through the meganumbers coming out of this year's singles day in china. the big breakfast alert. what colonel sanders and mrs. butterworth all have in common with this song we're going to explain as "worldwide exchange" rolls on. ♪ it's the truth and i owe it all to you ♪ >> i loved that movie, "dirty dancing. all right. let's kick off the second half
of that show with your executive recap. frank holland is back with the news you need to know. >> here's what's leading cnbc.com alibaba setting a new singles day record topping $30 billion in a 24 hour shopping event that's better than the $25 billion record set just last year sap is acquiring survey software maker qualetrics for $8 billion. it was gearing up for an ipo this is sap's second biggest acquisition ever we'll hear from the ceos at 8:00 a.m. they're buying athena health for $5.5 billion in cash sources say the deal will be officially announced later on today. >> that's our unofficial announcement of the deal thank you very much. let's get a check on the other major headlines. phillip mena in new york with those. >> brian, good morning deadly wildfires continue to
burn in northern and southern california a total of 31 people have been killed across the state with 29 deaths from the camp fire in butte county alone this matches the state's deadliest and is believed to be the most destructive in california history so far it's burned 111,000 acres and destroyed more than 6,000 homes and businesses officials say it is 25% contained. the governor in senate races in florida are getting more heated with both now undergoing a machine recount. in the senate race republican candidate rick scott is filing a lawsuit asking that votes tallied after last saturday's noon deadline not be counted his opponent said in a statement if scott wanted to make sure every legal ballot is counted, he wouldn't be suing andrew gillum rescinded his concession speech. stacey abrams is filing sought
asking for ballots wrongfully rejected to be counted though her opponent brian kemp has not commented on the suit, his campaign has said there are not enough uncounted ballots left to trigger a runoff or a recount. this year marked the 100th anniversary since the end of world war i. in new york more than 20,000 service men and women marched in the annual veterans day parade the army was this year's featured military branch in virginia secretary of defense james mattis and nancy pelosi were among hundreds of people to attend a special ceremony at arlington national cemetery. back to you. >> truly, the scope and scale of world war i, a million men died in one battle. insane phillip mena, thank you very much. here's how your money and investments look stock futures not giving you a lot of help. we are mixed, maybe slightly
down 30 points in the dow, that's a hair let's get a check on the asian markets. we saw the shanghai market rebound nicely up 1% japan squeeked out some gains. what is happening in europe, a similar story. mixed trade. a global look at commodities and currencies oil may be one of your big stories. the price of oil is up half a percent. the saudis talking about cutting production remember a few months ago it was raising production as prices came up maybe trying to find that sweet spot and the currency market the pound tumbling against some of the other currencies out there in the world. there we go, against the dollar eu turning up the pressure on a brexit deal with the u.k so a currency mention on "worldwide exchange. loeb says, quote, while current u.s. growth remains above trend,
the positive impulse is peaking now and will combine with an increasing drag from tightening financial conditions we have delefrd our portfolio, reduced our portfolio to tech meaningfully and grown our short book we expect to be net sellers over the next few months if markets rally. let's bring in the chief investment officer at palisade what do you think about dan loeb the market's peaked and they're selling tech >> if you look at how much money he's running, he has to look at the most liquid, the largest companies which gets you into fang again i do think that valuations in fang and the combination of that plus the fundamentals not being very good for several members of fang, thinking about it, brian, we've just unleashed a whole lot of capital out of those stocks
and that money is going to find a home. >> does sound like dan is negative on the overall market stimulus is slowing down the economy may have peeked. how do you feel? >> let's look where we are 0% inflation adjustment. it's hardly tightening from the stained point of -- >> bond market, not the fed. >> yeah. >> fed is tightening, but to your point, bond yields, inflation the same level. >> if you're a fundamentally driven firm like ours is, you're excited about it capital will go where it's treated the best it is going to be hard but if you're in stock, that's the place. >> where you think capital will feel like it's treated the best. >> it seems to be rotating into the more value receptors of the market that's got to get you into the banks. those are starting to trade better industrials look pretty good to us as well those are starting to trend higher and there are pockets of tech that are looking very
attractive look at the semiconductor space. the stocks are down huge. >> smes, stocks are whacked. >> terribly. you're getting to a point now where, you know, fairly soon, within the next couple of months you'll see a revenue start to slow down. that will probably be a sign to get back in. >> do you think in a year the u.s. economy will be entering recession? >> no way. i don't think so. >> there's a lot more calls out there for 2020 recession 2020 it's hard to believe is only a little over a year away. >> depends where you think we are in the cycle i would argue that we were very slow coming out of the financial crisis, so slow that we're only getting into a normalized recovery in the past 24 months depends where you think we are by normal standards those would say we're longer in the cycle. i would argue we're more mid
cycle. >> i know we're not, i feel like politics has turned into the british soccer season. it's like the day it ends, the next day it begins we're not even done with some of these gubernatorial races we just told you about and you believe that the president will have to soon go into re-election mode which means promises of a lot of things. not a political question, it's a market question. what will that do to equities? >> so i wrote a note on this which is on our website at palisade capital.com the president has started his re-election. he's not about to start. he started it the second the first -- the polls closed. he's going to do everything he can to keep it going there are narrow windows to work with his democratic colleagues next on the docket is narrow trade. cnbc reported on friday about
wilbur ross stepping down by year's end i think trump is in the process of reassembling his team to get a trade deal done with china not necessarily -- because that's within the range of what he can do. >> how big would that be we got a tease, a fake flutter what if we get a real deal we've got a real deal, trade deal i think it's significant it helps china. >> for the u.s. equity markets. >> it's massive because that's going to create more long range confidence on the part of capital allocators, corporations to spend on capital investment. >> dan, always a pleasure. thank you very much for joining us. monday morning analyst call to tell you about already. goldman sachs now out initiating coverage of american airlines and jetblue with buy ratings the analyst says that she expects jetblue's profitability to improve as revenue and cost initiatives ramp up. as for american, she sees higher earnings than the industry
average. so buy on jetblue and american but neutral rating in that initiation on delta, southwest and united continental. up next, is there a big bana head the fda imposing a crackdown on a cigarette that is hurting one stock. we'll give you the news and the market reaction. >> if you are not paying attention, we are over a week away from thanksgiving do you feel like that snuck up on you there's a reason for that and it could be great news for retail u' gngyour morning rbi and yoreoi to want to hear it. stick around for your heart...
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♪ ♪ we love chicago. it is a spectacular city i got engaged in chicago, however, chicago, it's too early for a christmas tree come on. there's a christmas tree in chicago outside of the apple store. it's november 12th the grinch we'll get to that in a second, frank. dow futures down 30 points right now which is on this market not a lot. wait and see what happens. you want to watch oil. oil is rising just a bit as we are seeing now talk and hearing talk about the saudis potentially wanting to cut production perhaps in a coordinated move with russia remember, we're at 80 bucks. a couple of months ago we were talking about adding to output now we're talking about cutting output how fast the world moves in the price of crude let's find out what else you're going to be talking about. talk about the trending stories.
>> let me ask you a personal question hope it's not too personal are you a smoker >> no. >> me neither. it will have all of the people buzzing today. the fda is proposing a proposed ban on menthol cigarettes. they found they are harder to quit and likely pose a greater health risk than regular cigarettes it comes amid a crackdown on ecigs. the fda commissioner says that smoking is an epidemic now they're going to limit the flavors you can get at gas stations and convenience stores. >> you know what juuling. >> i've heard of it. >> you don't have kids, do you >> no. teenage kids, it's an epidemic. >> is that like vaping >> yeah, flavored. mango. >> it attracts kids. >> there you go. >> back to what you were talking about, the grinch stole the box
office the latest take on the dr. seuss holiday classic scored number one in movie theaters. they say the grinch is estimated to have snagged nearly 79 million worldwide. i'm kind of like you i don't like the trees too early. i'm not a christmassy person. >> christmas burnout. >> it's not even thanksgiving. thanksgiving is early. >> don't steal our thunder. >> breakfast alert kfc rolling out chicken and waffles. the fast food chain spoofing the famous dance scene from the end of "dirty dancing. colonel sanders lifts mrs. butterworth up in the air. kfc's chicken and waffles hits stores today it will be available until the end -- here's the moment >> patrick swazee.
>> filmed at mountain lakes college. part of virginia tech. >> nobody puts chicken and waffles in the corner. >> nobody does >> thank you very much i know you're an eagles fan so cover your ooers sunday night football, if you're watching our football, you probably missed the end of the game if you're an eagles fan, you didn't miss much dallas cowboys traveled to philadelphia and took on the world champion eagles but dallas turned to its dependable running back to carry the load, zeke ezekiel elliott. they topped philly 27-20 both teams' record 4-5 some of the super bowl hangover w woes continue for your eagles. the countdown is on. why the timing of thanksgiving this year could be a big old christmas gift for the entire retail sector. it is your morning rbi and it's coming up. stick around
well, let's find out what is coming up on "squawk box." joe, i know you have tom barrick of colony capital. but let me tell you something, i took cincinnati and the 4.5 points because they were at home. >> are you nuts? >> they got obliterated. they were terrible. >> didn't you see the saints the week -- >> they came marching in. >> the week before the saints knocked off the rams who yesterday -- >> the line didn't look right. >> the rams beat -- that was a great game against seattle are you nuts i'm surprised it wasn't worse honestly they shouldn't even be on the same field with the saints, they shouldn't. i'm sorry. they shouldn't >> looked pretty good at the beginning of the year. >> not -- >> outside saints coming off an emotional win. >> i don't understand how the coach is still there he's been there 18 years mike brown doesn't care about
fancy don't think. don't get me started on that >> i already did i got you. you're already started. >> it was pseudo primetime i saw it -- you know, it wasn't on here. they blacked it out. nothing was on our fox affiliate here not that i would have watched anyway. >> before new york didn't reel you in, the bills, jets. >> anything close to primetime this is the way that the bengals -- i mean, like if it's monday night, sunday night game or playoff game, it's like, i don't know, they don't even show up. >> sorry >> let's move on you know why i'm glad to talk to you because you have been there with the rough necks, you're like a rough neck. you've been there on the rigs. is this supply or demand this is the story. >> yes. >> and it's affecting other markets, too people are worried about its demand and what's going on with oil, sully >> when there's too much of something, it goes down in
price. >> you're saying it's supply. >> it's both demand hasn't increased. >> if it's just supply, i'm not worried. >> 11.6 million barrels a day, super high inventories in america. the saudis were producing more now they want to pump less russia continues to pump more. nigeria is up. if everybody is pumping more, what's going to happen to prices, right? >> i don't know if demand continues to go up i'm worried about demand you're telling me it's more supply than demand. >> right now it's a little more supply than demand. >> maybe everything is okay. >> the cure for higher prices is higher prices. maybe the cure for lower prices is lower -- nobody is shutting off production a lot harder to shut it off than to ramp it up. >> you know who set up the whole inauguration for president trump, right >> tom barrick >> we're going to talk to him. he runs money, buys companies
but all of that will be viewed obviously. anything trump is always probably stark, i guess, isn't it, brian? >> generates no emotion or passion on either side. >> the twitter sphere. i'm trying to stay off of that cesspool anyway, how about you? i've seen you once in a while on there. >> i poke in and out joe kernen, thank you very much. sorry about the bengals, buddy. >> do not tie me to the -- i'm a saints fan. >> change the uniforms all right. let's bring in anthony chen. chief economist. we're not going to ask you about football by the way, what is your team? do you care? >> i don't care. >> that's probably the right way to be especially if you're a benning falls fan. let's talk about what joe talked about, crude oil prices are down do you think this is on some concern related to fears that the u.s. economy is slowing or could enter a recession in 2020. a lot more concerns out there about the macro economy.
>> it's always a concern which one is the over dominating factor, it's over supply. >> thank you for agreeing. >> and we are also seeing that other countries are also ramping up production. so supply is certainly dominating demand. when you look at the u.s. economy, 4.2% growth in the second quarter, 3.5%, you're not seeing a lack of demand on the u.s. china, now they're ramping up stimulus, monitoring policy, lowering interest rates. they're also doing more fiscal policy that's going to mean more future demand. >> because there are -- there are a group of people, there's a school of thought, whatever you want to call it, anthony, you know what it is, the bears in waiting. every time you see an economic number or oil goes down, that's it, we're slowing down, a recession is coming. >> i don't think a recession is coming this year or next year
for 2020. >> that's the problem i say 2020, could be january, could be december they're effectively a year apart. >> we are looking for the beginning of 2020. >> that's not that far away then. >> how do we move? if that's the case, do we start to wind down certain things? >> i think you have to start adjusting the portfolios and moving away from cyclical stocks to more secular type of growth sectors but one of the things that i did was to look at what happens after mid term elections. even a year later and of course you see high rates -- more than high single digit rates of return then because i looked for a recession in 2020 i went all the way back to periods where we had a recession one to two years after the mid-term elections. >> how many of those were there? >> we have 1958, we have 1978, we have 2006 and guess what, brian, 8.1% yearly return 12 months later for the s&p 500. >> i should have led with this
i buried the lead. i'm not good with my job three times basically ever in america we had a recession a year or so after the mid term elections but the next year for the equity markets we still rose 8% >> 8% is the average. >> that's pretty bullish. >> those are the numbers that's what history tells you. >> when you are heading into a presidential election, whether you have a democrat or republican, guess what, they like to win elections. >> they promise things. >> they not only promise things but they start to do things to convince -- >> because you get elected by giving people stuff, not taking stuff away. >> you get elected by having a healthy economy. >> and they'll do it, they'll goose it to keep the economy up. >> doesn't matter if you're a democrat or republican. >> so recession maybe in 2020. history says equity markets could still do well ahead of that what is your single biggest worry? >> the trade situation but even there because this is something
that washington has under some control irrespective of what happened in congress, i am cautiously optimistic that we may see at least a thawing of those trade tensions. >> that would be very positive, you think? >> very positive because right now it's subtracting as much as .7 of a percent off of chinese economic growth. for us, maybe 2 to 3 tenths of a percent off of growth. we saw in the third quarter business slowed down and that's negative anthony chan of chase. always a pleasure. thank you. have a great day. time for your morning rbi. today it's all about the calendar thanksgiving is falling at the earliest possible time this year it's always the fourth thursday in november and since the month began on a thursday, thanksgiving is already next week that's reason enough for the retail period to be giving thanks because the period
between black friday and christmas is the longest it can possibly be. how much are you in the mood for christmas music forever? because it's going to happen that's not a bad thing, is it? thanks for watching "worldwide exchange." have a great day "squawk box" is next its for my future. annuities can provide protected income for life. learn more at retire your risk dot org.
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good morning, crude prices, i'm talking oil, in bear market territory. saudi arabia said it will reduce production we'll show you that. alibaba, 34 hours a live report from shanghai a big deal relatively to tell you about in the software arena. sap is buying qualetrics they're just about ready for an ipo. sap comes in we'll talk to both ceos on this
monday, november 12th as "squawk box" begins right now. live from new york where business never sleeps, this is "squawk box." >> good morning, everybody welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick. the bond market is closed today in open advance of veterans day but the stock market is open we've been watching the u.s. equities futures right now it looks like the dow futures are indicated down by 21 points s&p futures down by 1.5. the dow up by 2.8%, a gain of over 700 points. the nasdaq up by .7% overnight in asia, take a look at what happened you'll see that the nikkei was up but just barely it was up by less than a