tv Fast Money CNBC December 21, 2018 5:00pm-5:31pm EST
broad tendencies not predictors. >> well we will be here monday to follow whether santa comes or not in the rally. >> i'm glad you wouldn't clarified. i wouldn't anybody thinking i had inside information about santa. >> we are having of an abbreviated trading session. "closing bell," noon to 2:00 p.m. around the market close at 1:00. thank you scott for being here have a good weekend, everybody "fast money" begins right now. the "fast money" starts now. live from the nasdaq mechanic site overlooking times square. i'm melissa lee. tim seymour, steve grasso. dan nathan guy adami breaking news on the government shutdown ylan mui has the latest. ylan. >> new reports that there is a deal to perhaps not avert the government shutdown perhaps limit the damage from a government shutdown. this is come from senator bob corker who says that vice president mike pence who was on the hill earlier this afternoon along with mick mulvaney and jared kushner, they met with chuck schumer in his office and
agreed to something. we don't know exactly what what we do know is that after that meeting vice president mike pence along with the other represent he was from the white house went over to the house side of the capitol to meet with paul ryan as well as leaders of the servant freed the conservative freedom caucus. that seems to be an indication that the two sides are coming together, the white house brokers the seeds of a longer negotiation here we did get a statement from chuck schumer's office about how the conversation between the minority leader and the vice president went and what he said was that chuck schumer reiterated that any proposal with funding for the wall will not pass the senate. however previous proposals including one including $1.3 billion for border security funding still on the table that could perhaps provide a point of negotiation for the discussions going forward. but right now where we are in
the senate is that they are stuck on a procedural vote in order to move forward on this bill that would have $5 billion for the border wall. keep the government open everyone knows that that bill is not going anywhere that bill is destined to fail. so the conversation is turning to, is there a way out of this if not tonight before midnight in the next few days perhaps before christmas or at least before january 3rd when the new congress takes session, guys so a lot of moving parts here on capitol hill we will keep you posted on the latest right now inkles of a deal back to you. >> so ylan, in order for the hope of a deal to even be there does it have to include border funding in some way maybe not for a wall ible is that what you are driving at >> right so what the senate democrats say is that $1.3 billion they had previously agreed to included money for border security. but did not include money for a wall senate republicans say it was
basically a wall they included money for the wall in that -- in that piece of legislation. so there is debate over exactly what went in there and that's why that could potentially be a point of negotiation that could eventually end in both sides seeing something they're willing to accept. again, this is all coming down to what does president trump want would he be willing to come down on the amount of funding for his wall and you know, what -- what he will ultimately decide over whether or not to sign a bill. it's his veto threat that is thrown that into limbo. >> ylan mui covering a developing stories and stocks got shutdown as we look like we could be heading for the government shutdown. the dow up as much as 400 points before ending down 40 points stock action having the worst week since the financial crisis as everything from fed to trade woes, white house chaos weighed
on stocks. and here we are a deal potentially but still threat of a veto by president trump looms. we don't know where we stand what do you make of this. >> there are a lot of reasons the market went down i think the government smutd is maybe 10 to 15% of it. 10:30 this morning, last night on the show i said there is a good chance of s&p rallies two% what we have seen. 25, 30 and at 10:30 this morning i said i'm stick going to dan nathan at 5:00 tonight ep dised me. 90 points later he looks like a jeansious. still no capitulation today. as a matter of fact since october i can make a case this was the worst day we have seen since early october. so can it get worse from here? >> there was quad ruple expiration that added to volume and urgency. i don't know you can glean from the activity but we are going lower. 2350 for a a little bit of a hiccup in the s&p is what i'm
looking for. >> i think d.c. dysfunction is something treating the market differently than in the past even ginsberg being a supreme court justice in limo is another concern for markets look at the week over week shutdown, almost 6% on the s&p, almost 8% on the triple qs people are shutting down and if you want to know what's going on out there in the street there are funds getting year end redemptions. there are people have to hit the bid. the high-yield market is a mess. people are running in to coast out books at the wrong time. and people don't want risks next week. >> also tax loss selling taking losses on the year when do they do it on a full volume day like today. >> it's interesting, also selling of names up a lot too. when we think of maga. microsoft, apple, google andismen we lost apple. and lost -- we lost google right. now we start to see amazon and microsoft give a lot of it back.
we have a couple of charts i know steve is all every over the levels usually but looking at these things approaching the prior lows from earlier in the year there are air pockets below these things they are silk winners too. one point, you started by saying it's the worst we can or month since 2008 that was anything but orderly. there was a crisis moment. and i don't care how bearish you have been in the lead up to what he we see in december here no one is expecting down 6% week given what's going on right now. >> so they have to come for the winners. that's why when apple was still up you started to think this isn't over yet because they have to take everything out amazon is still up on the year they're going to erase that. they're still coming for the favorites. they are going to squash them to zero. >> i just don't think people are looking at hey what do i have a couple of gains left in? i do say people don't cut the flowers and keep the weeds some fund managers didn't buy january 1 either pch it's a cost
basis. most importantly if you think the zok is going down and something fundamentally change sell the suffolk not because you think. >> it's a little ambiguous so i don't disagree with you 100% but looking at the stocks that still have some profit within them. >> but people. >> i go by year to date. that's what most funds are dealt with. >> they didn't buy that. >> we have the debate when apple was 184 and everyone told me it was 220 down to 184. people look to cut the fat the fat is profit. profit is still in apple well it was. profit is still in amazon. it's going to be cut. >> can't we agree, though it's the mechanics going on here we had a trillion dollars in market cap and started accelerate downside we lot two two down. now other two have 15% gains on the year to steve's point if that's vape rated in the next week in microsoft or azmodan there is no way the market can
rally because there is no sleerdship ner anywhere else. >> i think stocks relative to themself is the most important delta off a move is what's matters. doesn't matter the percentage is up you go up more more room to fall it's clear we talked about the numbers and closer to 7% on a 5-day basis for the s&p. the dtsds are moving at a greater pace because these the weight in the index. we saw this all the time the pain below the surface of the index is extraordinary people are feeling that now. >> you look at the declines we have seen in amazon. mentioned azmodan 1,300 and change right now at what point do you say is there a point you say i will step in when it seems to treacherous out there? when we're thinking about maybe -- >> the logic of that question is why we're still going down because people are still asking me where the support is in the market you probably still having the same conversations when people think stocks are never going up again that's the bottom.
right now everyone is will go for where do we step the bounce level. >> you think people are still asking that. >> i know they are. >> in terms of. >> is now the time to get in i. like those questions have gotten quiet. >> i don't hear a lot of that. the questions i get a lot of is what should i do in the -- i mean the typical questions after a month and a half, two months of what we have seen, the sort of dovetail what dan was saying though, you know, the buying on the way up over the last seven or eight years a lot of it based on fundamentals i get it but a lot indiscriminate buying from the machines we talking talk about taking the market lower. pete acknowledged in last night as well. machines took the market higher. they're taking it lower now. the problem is markets go down a lot faster than they go up. >> i know it's very difficult during all this -- i don't see a lot of rosy dynamics and a lot of sunshine on the horizon but i tell you when apple trades x cash about 10 times trailing,
okay we can debate. >> right now. >> right now and we can debate whether the future looks anywhere close to the last 12 months -- yes you do have a place where youle will be rewarded by buying great companies. >> he is that the problem. people are debating whether the -- the cycle is over. >> the s&p is going to get -- well you are right apple we could get into the stock. i'm saying in general if you find a great company a balance sheet with a great business model we loved three months ago i think there is a price you want to buy that and i think people should evaluate the companies now. >> the guest guest has been sounding the alarm for months. mark usk o of morgan creek kpool management says there is more pain ahead for the bear market let's go to mark in chicago. great to see you >> hey, melissa thanks for having me. great to be with you this afternoon. >> this really stood out to me in the notes i got for you, mark that this is going to last until 2020. >> yeah, look we talked about this when we first got together in october, that i think it's a
2001, 2002 cycle 2000 we were only down single digits from september to december down 9% then the shallow recession in 2001 14%. ten the debt crisis in 2002. down 22% i think the same think plays shallow recession next year down double digits and the debt crisis with all the over leveraged wisdom zombie companies hits in 2020 >> that's basically small caps. >> it's a lot of small caps. but it's also mid-caps and even large caps there are some companies that have borrowed money to buy back stock. great for the management it's really tough for you know investing in the future profitability of the company and when the market starts to turn and when interest rates rise it can be very deadly we saw that in 2002. i think we see it late 19 into 20. >> if you believe strongly that in ber market will last until 2020, why do you want to find a safe place to hide in equities
and u.s. equities right now? because you are saying to us here safe places to hide, health care, utilities. mlp. why do i want to be in any of that if i knew there was a bear market until 2020, why >> great, i mean one thing you can do is you get hedged go long and short. there is the segment on hedge funds earlier. everyone hates hedge funds our hedge funds up 4% this year looking nice and making money upon the shortside. the queue is you want to own something because mlps for example you get paid 8% to wait. you could be wrong by 8% and still not lose any money maybe even outperform cash there are pockets of opportunity. you were talking about apple a second ago from a valuation standpoint that versus the other fang stocks, actually looks pretty attractive i could go long apple and short some of the others like amazon and netflix and actually be very comfortable. so i think there is lots of interesting stuff out there. then you go overseas i love the emerging market
they have done better in the past week not down nearly as much in fact some are up. >> the fed and the weakening of the dollar helped. when it comes to cash though, mark are we at a point where people should think cash is an option. >> we wrote in january a couple of things. one wrote cash is king and seem said you guys are idiots i said we're at idiotic as people like warren buffett julian robertson highest level of cash ever george soros highest level ever and teper same thing we wrote that long bonds wouldbeat stocks we looked dumb until the last couple weeks. and now long bonds have beaten stocks i think they will beat stocks again next year. >> shorter term call, mark, how bad do you think it gets on a point basis on the s&p >> i think the selling will take a little break here. i don't know that we get the big santa clause rally everybody
hopes for. i thought we'd be down single digits for in year it looks like that's where when we end up. then i think january people will have the hope rally like they always do. and you need to watch the first five days. then i think we start down i think next year is going to be a dreadful bear market and a bear market is a market that goes down most days but goes up a lot on good news or perceived good news. we have a lot of spiky rallies at the end of the trip like a rubber ball downs down a set of sars the end of the trip is a bad place. >> mark thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> happy holidays. >> maybe. >> hold the bitcoin. >> mark, thanks let's trade it here you -- >> i think. >> you agree with him? i'm curious. >> you can be in carb for a while but ultimately you have to deploy it. he makes good points you use cash tactically when you get nevsz about things where
you've been profitable apple you make a good point. a company with amazing balance sheet. trading at a fundamental wigs where it was a yeerg are year ago at this time and everyone loved it there and went up 50% so if you want to start dollar cost averaging some of that cash into a position and you missed it. >> buy part of a position. >> and work it down. if understand it's a choppy period the next year >> or things have changed and the guidance that they are not -- not no longer giving is the tip of the iceberg, then you're in for a world of hurt even in apple. and i think this has been a reversal of what everyone thought it would be. that would be the ultimate reversal that it's a value trap not value. >> apple just speaking of latest stock to join the death cross club one trader says it's a make or break moment for the stock he explains in less than four days until christmas, the shopping frenzy hits a fever pitch this week. but can the holiday fix the retail wreck the gold rally
the chart master sees something that could have you pressing the buy button too mesqrey m a foggy and rain tis ua in new york city. much more fps right after this alerts -- wouldn't you like one from the market when it might be time to buy or sell? with fidelity's real-time analytics, you'll get clear, actionable alerts about potential investment opportunities in real time. fidelity. open an account today.
crosses below the 200 day moving average. sbaking loss of momentum the iphone maker joining two thirds of the s&p 500 in the death cross club including netflix, facebook and alphabet and the nasdaq index itself entered a death cross earlier this month is this a make or break moment for apple? look at you. dan. >> that's the face last night. >> i think you made a really good point, steve. we got to see what the guidance looks like the stock went down based on guidance for the all important holiday quarter. the news has been horrible about, you know, injunctions against selling off and on phones and china and germany and this and that. why would you want to get in front of the quarter and guidance as they head into a seasonally slow period in the winter you want to wait that's why i think if you start to see it excited on valuation you start -- you dip your toe in on a quarter position that sort of thing you made a great point about the russell point.
>> a lot of good points being made. >> holiday gift. giving presents. >> it broke out first and had a lot of beta to the s&p it's retraced the move since the breakout i think a lot of stocks do that. >> you made a great point when you said i made a great point. >> how do we split screen if you see everybody is making a great point. >> apple breakout from 2016 was 116. that's down 20% from here good support. >> who made a great point in your view, guy. >> i think tim did the best. >> the best point. i know the market is crazy but that vest is just. >> it's a holiday gift. >> fortunately it's been a little bit warm out for the fire but nonetheless the holidays. >> what's the level that makes sense? if you go back to the middle of 2015, apple the stock chopped out at 128 and gave it back over the next six or seven months i'm not suggesting it's getting there. about you look for a line in the sand, 128 makes as much sense as anything i can find. >> smud we be worried about the
death cross club. >> we should be. to be clear i'm a big believer in the death cross i believe the technical behind it now indicate you have medium term momentum moving over long tim. it takes a long time to turn the ship on december 3rd hit death cross. down 14% from the death cross. apple has done a lot of damage we are none the wiser where it goes but bottom line here is i think around 140 apple on the charts looks interesting. i think on valuation right now i stand in here and i like the company. >> everybody gets a gold star. on for more on the apple death cross go to cnbc.com "fast money" on cnbc first in business worldwide here is what else is coming up on the show. >> lions and tigers and bears, oh my! >> oh my, is right the bears are on the attack. don't worry doorty we told you how to protect your portfolio no matter what happens next plus. >> you're as cold as ice.
>> it's been an ice cold december for retail stocks as the group is on track for its worst month in a decade. the traders tell you four names that are barga bs.inuy much more "fast money" right much more "fast money" right after this & they'll drop everything can you take a look at her vitals? & share the data with other specialists yeah, i'm looking at them now. & they'll drop everything hey. & take carby yeah, that procedure seems right. & that one too. at&t provides edge to edge intelligence. it can do so much for your business, the list goes on and on. that's the power of &. & when your patient's tests come back... so they say that ai will put the future in the palm of our hands. that's great. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday. that's why you work with watson. i analyzed thousands of contracts and detected a discrepancy. it works with procurement systems you already use to help speed up distribution without slowing down your team.
frank, tell fred full force on those french fenders. fine. fine. fantastic. for ai that knows your industry, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job. hello! not long ago, ronda started here. and then, more jobs began to appear. these techs in a lab. this builder in a hardhat... ...the welders and electricians who do all of that. the diner staffed up 'cause they all needed lunch. teachers... doctors... jobs grew a bunch.
what started with one job spread all around. because each job in energy creates many more in this town. energy lives here. . here comes santa clause. here comes santa clause lane. >> well back to "fast money. look how many days to christmas. 3 days 6 hours, 35 minutes 50 seconds right in the midst of the busiest holiday shopping season of the year. you wouldn't know it look at the retail stocks. on track por the worst month since november 2008. ooh. so are there any bargain buys hidden in the wreckage mr. vest, what do you say. >> a place to buy a nice vest vest is not tiffanys but i would bar bell the sector. the stock at 46% that doesn't mean anything where is it going?
i think the valuation at 14 times forward earnings this company is well cheap to its history. we have just gotten guidance pit. by the way thank you for the brokerage community for downgrades as it went down 45%. >> dollar general. comes out dg, mel we power pitched we go to the smart board. >> fast pitch but i get your drift. >> different show. >> it's our show. >> we don't power pitch. >> i wouldn't power pitch that 15 times forward earnings, reported earnings in the beginning of december. tweak guidance a little bit downside but valuation is reasonable. their vrns are in check. they managed to hold the margins. if we are going into an environment where we think we are going into i think dollar jenn is a winner >> i like the bar bell. >> everybody's favorite used to be home employee, down 15% year to date. dragged down with housing. >> do they sell raisers there. >> why do you ask?
>> i would say buy the stock but the only thing with consumer names, they dip first, they are the tell they dip first recover first wind chill for retail to recover first that's the buy signal home depot. >> yes, last night my final trade was not to chase nike in the after market trading up 9% on guidance i thought was head skrechg when you consider two thirds of sales are from outside the u.s. you think about manufacturing with china china big growth area. i didn't see it. but to me if you get it back towards 65 in a broad market selloff that's where you pick at it. >> time for the final trade tim. >> in addition to wishing you all a happy holiday. i think apple is a name after this pullback there is downside but 140 is where you stop and look at apple. >> xlu, utilities has been -- have been as bullet proof as you can imagine in this downmarket xlus. >> dan sfl proctor and gamble stay tuned we tell you how to sell it.
correlations go to one in a down market >> guy. >> this too shall pass folks i know it's a lot of doom and gloom. maybe the market goes lower but cool your jets enjoy the weekend have a great christmas >> merry christmas. >> focus on the good things. despite tim's vest unh comes out. >> merry christmas to everybody if you celebrate we will be back here wednesday at 5:00 but don't move a very merry "options action" is up right after this breaks ♪
hey there, live at the nasdaq market site from a rainy times square in new york city where it's an expiration friday. the guys getting ready behind me while they do that here is what's coming up on the show >> the bears took down tech this week as the nasdaq plunges into bear territory. if you are worried it could get worse mike khouw has a why to buy plunge protection plus. >> i love gold. >> as stocks tank, options traders are running for cover in