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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  January 18, 2019 5:00am-6:00am EST

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stokt getting a lift on conflicting tariff headlines we'll sort them out for you straight ahead the bird box bounce. netflix reporting a big build in new subscribers, but it's what the company said about competition that's getting a lot of attention ditching davos president trump pulling the plug on his delegation's trip to the world economic forum as the government shutdown enters its 28th day it is friday, january 18th, and worldwide exchange begins right now.
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>> trar trade tariff headlines helping sent meant there as well the nikkei in japan up by 1.25%. a similar percentage gang, and the shanghai composite 1.5%. the south korean kospi, and the positivity is translating into europe as well the german dax up by over a percent. same with the cac in france, and the ftse 100 the ftse mib in italy and spain ibex all in the green. it's a tight sentiment so far at least.
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global stocks getting lift on conflicting reports about trade. the "wall street journal" is reporting that treasury secretary steven mnuchin has proposed lifting all or at least some tariffs on china to speed up the possibility of a trade deal a senior administration official shot down that report telling our own aman jabers, there is no talk of lifting tariffs at least right now. younunio eunice has more on beijing what's happening on that side in china? >> well, as you said, the "wall street journal" was reporting that these -- the tariff scaleback is really meant as an incentive for beijing to make deeper concessions however, a treasury spokesperson who is close to the trade talks told aemon that neither secretary mnuchin or ambassador lighthizer have made recommendations to anyone to other parts of the negotiations with china this is an ongoing process with the chinese that is nowhere near completion
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now, aemon was told that the focus now is on the discussions and the visit by vice premier who is going to washington on january 30th and 31st and that visit has become even more important because of the white house's announcement that president trump has pulled the entire u.s. delegation from the world economic forum in davos, switzerland, which is to take place next week. so even though president trump had already canceled his own trip because of the government shutdown, the u.s. delegation that was being sent was still very high level. it's expected to be led by u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin and bob lighthizer was expected to be there china is sending a very important member of their team, the vice president and the expectation had been that the two sides would be able to sit on the sidelines and have a discussion about the trade deal at the world economic forum. however, it looks as though those discussions will be ongoing. just not as davos, and, instead,
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any progress would be made back in wash wash >> i'm not sure if it's a shift, but what i've been hearing from schienz officials this week is that they are feeling optimistic that a trade deal can be made. they told me that some people have told me that they feel the pressure and that they think there can be some movement whether it comes to intellectual property rights protection, and, also, market access. there's still a lot of hesitation on the u.s. side because the u.s. side is still concerned that the deal that might come out of this could not -- maybe it won't be very different from previous deals where we have seen beijing make promises in the past, and that's why the u.s. wants to have a verification process, and that's going to be a big question as to whether or not that is going to be able to be worked out >> understood. thank you so much for that
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update on the china tariff talk out here let's get to the market reaction on those trade headlines we're agreeing again today does that mean that the markets are trying to accentuate the positive at this point >> i think the markets are probably right to accentuate the positive, anyway i think we are going to get a deal i don't think it's going to be an all-encompassing deal, but it will be a deal that removes basically an escalation of the trade war that was brewing as long as we get the status quo, no new tariffs and a slow deescalation of tear ofs, tariffs being pulled away, that's great news for the global economy. the white house administration can't fight too many battles at the same time. with the government being shut down, with the weak q4 and u.s. equity markets, i think it's going to choose its battles, and i think getting an easy win with
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a trade deal on china, even if it isn't all encompassing, it's something that they'll be gravitating towards. >> where do you think the market emphasis is right now? would it react a little bit better to incremental developments on the trade front, or would it work towards incremental developments on the end of the government shutdown obviously we know the overarching theme is trade, but where would you think the markets would have more of a reaction if they saw a little bit of incremental progress at this point >> i think the trade is the one thing. i think that's a huge overhang for the whole global economy, and if we get some resolution on that and progress on that, i think that's more important. the government shutdown is an announce, and it's something that probably is starting to have some incremental impact on u.s. gdp it's not going to be sizable for u.s. gdp at this point it's not going to impact global growth at this point, whereas trade war and if that escalated as the threats were there that would be much more important i think the market is right to
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look much more at u.s.-china trade relations. >> there is a view that the december 24th lows that we saw in many parts of the market, including right here in the u.s., was an over shoot to the down side. a v-shaped recovery the likes that we've seen so far is perhaps a little bit overdone as well take us through what your thoughts are is this an environment where we still can press build positions, auto are is this a time when we take the strength that we've seen to perhaps lighten up on some of the position that we've seen gain in value over the course of the past three weeks >> we're doing both, actually. we've been building positions in emerging markets we think that will be the region that gets the biggest benefit out of u.s. trade truce with china. it's a market that's incredibly cheap trading at 11 times earnings, giving you a dividend yield of 3% right now and growing structurally much faster than the developed world for the coming years we've been adding to emerging markets. u.s. equities, i think, are getting fully valued again now they did have very steep correction in late december and
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they bounced right back. markets cheap on earnings. on ebida the market still very expensive in the united states, and i think operating margins and profit margins for the u.s. is one area that's going to disappoint i'm of the view there's going to be higher interest rates and higher wage costs in the united states not worried about the global economy so much, but worried about the profit margin for u.s. companies. >> we've been talking about the government shutdown, and the white house estimates that for every week the government is shut down we shave one-tenth of a percent often gdp. at what point do you feel the u.s. will have to do something because the economic impact of the government shutdown is just too much to bear >> you'll see where the pressure comes whether it's coming on the trump administration or if it's going to come on congress and the democrats. both sides, ideally, could come up with something that's saifling face for both sides that would be in the best interest of the country. what's happened in recent weeks with pelosi and trump basically trying to do one upsmanship. that's obviously not going to
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get to that saving face agreement that the united states needs. it's probably overstated in my opinion the white house estimate of how much it's contracting gdp, but no doubt it is a head wind for gdp i think it should be reflected in a steeper yield curve you have seen sentiment maybe shift a little bit in equities worried about the government shutdown i think u.s. treasuries, the flat yield curve, i think you need to see a steeper term structure in the united states to account for the political miss, to account for the government shutdown. it's something that should be agreed, but it doesn't seem like there's any impetus to get that agreed in the short-term >> patrick armstrong, thank you for that we've now got breaking news coming up. tesla, the company is cutting 7% of its work force. this comes at a time the company tries to cut its costs and ramp up production of its model three. those tesla shares right now off by about 2.5% in extended trading. it is a bit of a sharp drop-off, albeit on light volume still, though, tesla announcing a full-time cut to its work
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force by about 7%. wee we'll bring you any new developments as we hear them on our side here. turning now to our other big corporate story. it's netflix those shares are lower after the company reported a mixed quarter. netflix topped earnings estimates by 6 cents, but revenues fell short of analyst estimates. the company says it added 8.8 million paid subscribers last quarter. netflix also talked about competition saying the video game fortnite is a bigger competitor than hbo or hul uh-h uh-huh here's netflix ceo reed hastings on the earnings call last night. >> we compete so broadly with all of these different providers that any one provider entering, you know, only makes a difference on the margin that's why we don't get so focused on any one competitor and really think our best way is to win more time by having the beg e best experiences, all the things we do, and that's helped us a lot >> all right with us now on the cnbc newsline
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is jim nail, principal analyst at forester research he covers netflix. jim, as we talk about the numbers here, it is no surprise perhaps that netflix has fallen back a bit it's been a huge run for the stocks since december 24th what exactly about this report was the most negative in your mind >> well, you know, i found a lot more positives than the stock market does. i'm maybe a little more forgiving because i think the fact that they can continue to put more net paid subscriptions in q4 of 2018 than they did in 2017 it's big news. particularly in the u.s. market where they're fairly mature, fairly penetrated, and, yet, they're adding more subscribers. to me that signals actually good news going forward that we're getting beyond those early adopter, tech-savvy young people
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that we all kind of see as the first people to embrace these kinds of things. it's going more mainstream i didn't see that negative at all. >> so, jim, we're showing video right now of the original content that netflix is putting out. we've seen roma. we've seen what's happening with bird box those phenomenon does that now mean that netflix has become more of a movie studio or a media content generator than it is an actual technology distribution platform streaming video? >> well, that i think is absolutely right i think reed was pretty straight forward in saying that their original content is what's really driving the majority of their engagement given the focus of, you know, both reed and ted on engagement, engagement, engagement as one of the big themes of the call, that does make them look a lot more like a traditional movie studio or tv network that is hit-driven
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and, therefore, potentially more volatile performance going forward. you know, every studio, every tv network that got some hot quarters, or they've got great hits that, you know, are really going well, and then they go through a dry spell, and, you know, it takes them a while to get back on their feet that is, you know, kind of a little bit of a -- they had a great q4 for that. >> they dropped for the stock in a big run-up this year jim nail, thank you for those updates. we appreciate it this morning. we are just getting started here on the show coming up next, maxed out. the one dow stock tumbling this morning following a big earnings miss we'll bring you that name ahead. plus, crude realities. a new report shows more oil is expected to flood the global market this year we're drilling down on those mbs enorwi ehae nuerwh wlddexcng returns.
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other -- the morning's other big movers kate rogers has those stocks to watch. kate >> good morning to you now to your top three stocks stories today. american express missed forecasts as customers' spending slowed consumers took out more loans on their cars in the quarter, which drove up provisions for credit losses shares of jb hunt are higher today. the trucking company's fourth quarter adjusted earnings easily beat forecasts, while revenue was right in line. a slump in inter-modal shipments and a charge reeld to a dispute with bnsf was offset by strong gains in the long haul and contract trucking business shares of -- the business software maker reporting better than expected fourth quarter results and given an upbeat outlook. the company says it topped $1 billion in annual revenue for the very first time. back over to you >> kate, thank you for that. cup next on the show, the united states of oil. a new report out this morning shows no signs of a slowdown in
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america's energy boom. we'll get the market reaction ahead. later on, if you are headed out of town this holiday weekend, you've got to stick around a perfect storm could be brewing at our nation's airports we'll explain when worldwide exchange returns after this brea k.
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s. we turn to the energy markets. new numbers from the international energy agency showing no slowdown in america's
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energy boom. jumana live in london with those details. jumana >> thanks. let me break down some of the key points that came out of this monthly report it is a monthly report every month they tend to give a breakdown of how supply and demand has been panning out. let's just start with their global demand outlook. i thought it was interesting that it is still unchanged for the forecast of 2019-2020. remember, back in december there was a lot of pessimism being priced into the market as to what that demand looks like. iea said they have not made any changes on that front. the big one, however, is that of global supply. back in december we found out at the vienna opec meeting that opec and opec plus would be looking to start reducing -- sorry, reducing supply, increasing some production to the markets. we found out from these numbers that the december global production is down 950,000 barrel as i day, of which 600,000 of which came from opec. what's interesting about this is even though opec themselves had reduced russia, increased oil production, so there you have
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it the take-away from the iea is that even though opec, of course, are looking to reduce supply, theres still a little more excess capacity, which is one of the reasons oil continues to come under pressure they were seeing a bit of a buns, however, dom >> thank you so much for that update on those new iea numbers. let's bring in tamar, nasdaq oil analyst. you heard the report from the iea. what stood out to you? was it the idea that the demand remains unchanged, or that we are seeing an actual cut to production numbers late last year >> i think it's both i think the most unknown question for the oil markets for 2019 is a level of demand. oil, interestingly, is sort of acting more like an equity market in the sense that it's pricing in concerns about future demand what the report is confirming is that facts on the ground right now for demand are still quite strong demand is strong around the world, but people are really worried about these red flags in china in terms of auto sales coming down, retail sales coming
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down, and they're looking at that and saying maybe this is a leading indicator that demand might come down in the future. oil in the past has typically been a spot asset. trading for supply and demand right now, but it's starting to behave a little bit more in terms of anticipatory for the future >> as we talk about the price action in the markets, they are forward-looking, and if it is, indeed, like you said, as a more forward-looking indicator right now, what was it about that steep drop between october and december and then the sharp v-shaped rise that we've seen that tells you anything about what's happening with the way that markets were priced for supply and demand at this point? >> it tells you the market is pretty tight we were a very suddenly able to move from an undersupply situation in the first half of the year to an oversupply situation in the second half of the year the key component of that really was u.s. shale we found out that the american government reports, the weekly inventory reports were really understating the level of production growth, and that started to become clear in
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october, which is really when the trajectory of oil prices started to go downward when we look at where we were in december of 2017 forecasting the level of production growth, most agencies had less than a million barrels a day of brukz production growth coming out of the u.s. we ended up ending the year at two million barrels a day. the critical question for 2019 is where is that level of supply growth we think it's unsustainable at two million, but we think it's going to be robust where is that relative to the level of global demand growth? that's what's going to determine amid all the noise -- that's what's really going to determine the trajectory for oil prices. >> there's no doubt that u.s. shale has been a huge defining force in what's happening with oil markets over the past couple of years what is your sense about how these production cuts from opec and its partners, opec, opec plus, whatever you want to call them, how likely are they to stick and be disciplined to those cuts throughout the course of this year >> well, oil right now, the market is in a transition period, so we're moving from a
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state of over supply to more of a balanced market. on the supply side i think opec is really going to do everything it can led by saudi arabia, and it's going to take a while for that to show up in the actual data production cuts, export cuts from opec doesn't lead to actual inventory drawdowns in the oecd markets for a couple of weeks and months afterwards. particularly for russia. it's difficult tore them to draw down on production in the winter months shale itself is also in a self-correction process right now. we've seen capital programs announce for the new year companies are cutting back on their level of spending. we should see a moderation in the level of growth coming out of the u.s at least on the supply side, we are self-correcting where, that's why i said earlier the real question for 2019 is on demand >> thank you so p for those updates on oil >> thank you let's get a check on this morning's other top headlines. francis riviera in new york with the latest there good morning, francis. >> hi, dom happy friday to you. we're starting this morning with
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officially four weeks into the government shutdown, and the partisan divide in d.c. is only growing wider. instead of figuring out ways to get struggling federal employees back to work, president trump and house speaker nancy pelosi are locked in a game of one upsmanship apparent retaliation to the speaker's post to postpone his state of the union over the shutdown the president canceled pelosi's military transportation for an official overseas trip thursday. also, citing the shutdown as is reasoning. two men are fighting for their lives after getting buried under an avalanche in new mexico at the ski valley resort. they first found a man unresponsive and not breathing eventually they established a pulse and were able to stabilize them and able to take them to the hospital another avalanche struck in utah, but this was forced by transportation officials the stretch of highway in provo canyon was buried in snow. crews will begin trying to clear the road this morning. and a major scare for the royal family authorities say queen elizabeth's 97-year-old husband prince phillip was behind the wheel as suv flipped
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witnesses say the royal was pulling out of an intersection when his vehicle overturned. two women and another car were treated for middle eastern injuries prince philip was not injured. he was given a breathalyzer test, and he passed. everyone is watching when the prince will be back behind the wheel, if he will. >> thanks, francis riviera for that, and have a nice weekend. >> you too >> coming up next on the show, we are talking trade conflicting reports on the u.s.-china tariff situation sending stocks higher. we'll get the full market reaction coming up ahead
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breaking news on tesla the company is planning big job cuts tesla's stock is moving of in a beg way. those full details ahead zpliefrmts rally on. global stocks moving higher on some conflicting trade headlines. we'll break them down for you. and if you are heading out of town this holiday weekend, listen up because there could be good morning welcome to worldwide ekts change brian sylvan is off today. if you are just waking up or heading into work, we have some breaking news on tesla shares are tumbling on news the company is planning job cuts
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tesla is planning to trim 7% of its global work force. this comes at a time when the company tries to cut costs to ramp up model three production tesla making that announcement in an e-mail to employees. tesla calling the cuts "very difficult. shares down by 5.5% in early premarket trading on light volume here's what's leading cnbc.com right now netflix shares slipping this morning. the company beating on subscriber growth, but missed on revenue. the streaming giant also issuing weaker than expected revenue guidance for the first quarter the white house is ditching davos. president trump cancelling his delegation's trip to the world economic forum due to the government shutdown. treasury secretary steve mnuchin, secretary of state mike pompeo, and commerce secretary wilbur ross were all supposed to attend next week's gathering the move comes just hours after president trump postponed house
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speaker nancy pelosi's planned overseas trip due to the shutdown wal-mart is abandoning its plans for a video streaming service. instead, the retailer will focus on adding content to voodoo, the video service it acquired back in 2010. it's reportedly number three in pay-per-view digital video, trailing both apple and amazon back over to you >> kate rogers, thank you for that update. let's get a check on the early market action. futures pointing to a positive open for stocks. as you can see, if these gains and futures hold into the opening bell, we could see it about a 58% gain in the dow jones industrial average a five-point gain in the s&p we should note that that has been steadily drifting a little bit lower over the course of the past half hour global stocks getting a lift on some conflicting reports on trade. the "wall street journal" is reporting that treasury secretary steven mnuchin has proposed lifting all or some tariffs on china to speed up a trade deal, but a senior administration official shot down that report telling our own
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aemon javers, there is no talk of lifting tariffs, at least right now. let's bring in chad morganlander from washington crossing advisors we saw, and i know you did too, that sharp spike up yesterday in afternoon trading because of these headlines. is it something right now where the markets are still hanging on just every single breath that comes out of washington or china with regard to trade >> without a doubt it's a meaningful concern of the market the market sold off so rapid lid in november and december >> will there be a slowdown in u.s. and global economic growth in 2019? >> i think the natural pace is for deceleration of growth in the united states. our expectation is that gdp comes in around 2.25 to 2.5%
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overall, and then global gdp, we think there's going to be a pronounced slowdown, and you can get prance a 2.7% print, which is far less than the imf and oecb's expectations. >> that thesis of a global slowdown is probably what played into the sharp drop in stocks that we saw between october and december, but we've seen what looks like at least for now a massive v-shaped recovery off of those lows did the market overshoot with that pessimism last quarter? >> well, dominic, i think that they may have done that, but also, you had a massive shift of a signal from the federal reserve. as financial conditions spike, the federal reserve went towards their third unspoken mandate, which is to do no harm when it comes to the financial system. they reverse course and, of course, as you saw this week, there's been measured messages from the fed governors about raising interest rates although we still continue to think it will play a headwind if
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they continue to reduce their balance sheet. >> do you feel that the lows are in for the market, at least medium term? >> i think that you perhaps you get a couple more percentage points of gain over the course of the next, say, 12 to 15 trading sessions overall, we're in a lower return environment for 2019 some headwinds, of course, are that the fed funds rate continues to be about 2.5% we don't anticipate that they're going to raise interest rates, but that fed funds rate at 2.5% pretty much is a headwind because our long-term forecast or returns for the s&p 500 is roughly about 5% to 6% >> then how do you construct a portfolio at washington crossing advisors given the fact that you think that we are in a low growth, low return environment >> on your bond portfolio, you want to extend your duration at this point and actually start to look towards higher quality bonds, but go out 10 to 15 years on those maturities as a buffer. also, what you want to do, stay
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in very consistent sectors here in the united states because we are late in the economic cycle look at consumer staples you also want to look at health care, and you want to also bookmark that or actually bookend that with industrials at this point because they came down to hard >> is there one place, one asset, one type of sector or industry in the market that is a big tea leaf for you about how the markets in 2019 will react is it high yield is it emerging markets is it currency >> it's definitely em. em has been the global driver of growth, ie china as you start to see a deceleration of growth there, then that is -- you see that in the emerging market economies as well as emerging market bonds. look at china. watch the information out of -- information flow there if you see a huge fiscal stimulus program coming out of china, then you want to be more overweight risk at that point in time >> chad morganlander from washington crossing. thank you so much for joining us this morning >> thank you let's find out what else is going to be talked about this
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morning. sh shark is five feet longer than average that's terrifying for me >> look at the photos. >> the photos are beautiful, but i am so scared of sharks >> there's people swimming next to it. >> i know. it's pretty incredible >> they're not in cages. >> they're brave braver than us if you are ae restaurant owner, go for the gold. a new study shows that restaurants with a hint of gold, like a candlestick or tablecloth, can make diners feel richer that, in turn, makes people leave bigger tips. >> i didn't realize. this is a subconscious thing if i walk into a restaurant, and i see more gold, i will spend more money and tip better? >> yeah. apparently you'll tip better, which is nice for the servers. i always try and tip well because i worked in the service
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industry, and that totally changes your perspective >> i understand if anybody has worked in a service industry, you get it >> totally >> here's what i would say remember, this is not factoring in this idea that we could see a lot of restaurants moving to no tipping and just raising prices. >> yeah. that's true. >> totally how about this a whacky moment at last night's lakers game. check this out >> moments ago, now, here is one for the books. michael beazley looking to check in for the lakers and then is told, hey, michael, come on back you are wearing the wrong shorts >> lakers player michael beazley tries to enter the game wearing non-regulation shorts. he had to run all the way back to the locker room to change it all worked out in the end beazley's lakers went on to beat the oklahoma city thunder in overtime >> that is -- >> i like that one >> so it's kind of like if i walked on to set today and didn't wear a tie. >> no, no, no, dom send it back back to the locker room. >> and i get it. we are all professionals, and mr. beazley gets paid to play
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basketball a lot of money. >> pretty funny. looks like he was just rushing to get out there, and he put on the wrong shorts happens to the best of us. >> it does happen to the best of us kate rogers, thank you for those trending stories still ahead on the show, a major travel alert if you are headed to the airport this weekend. the points guide, brian kelly, joins us coming up on the show, and, later on, the government shutdown taking a big toll on small business a check on main street coming up tesla plunging on news the company is cutting jobs. we'll have more on this big developing story when "worldwide exchangerern" tus. we're drowning in information. where in all of this is the stuff that matters? the stakes are so high, your finances, your future.
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zpleench if you are waking up, that's a live shot of times square in new york city. what you are seeing, wet conditions when i drove into work earlier this morning, it was snowing, and now it's shifting into what looks like rain, and that's what we're going to get for probably the rest of the day. that travel weather advisory in effect for this weekend as well because if you are headed out of town this weekend, there could be a perfect storm brewing at our nation's airports. first, that major winter storm bearing down on the east coast you just saw some of that in new york city. let's bring in brian kelly, founder of thes much.
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let's talk about this perfect storm. should i worry if i need to go to an airport this weekend >> you should absolutely worry there's a lot of unknowns right now, but the airports are already under stress with the tsa shutdown certain terminals in airports have been shut down due to lack of staffing. we've heard reports that the tsa is flying in workers to certain airports like atlanta. layer in the flight delays, and you could be in for a stressful airport experience this weekend. >> so what can travellers do not just this weekend, but perhaps in general -- when it comes to anticipated flight delays because of weather and/or lines because of staffing for tsa and air traffic control? >> the lines in airports i highly recommend getting tsa precheck, which will get you, you know, expedited security even when those lines are long, the line moves much quicker. you don't have to take your shoes off. a lot of credit cards will give you that for free. otherwise, it's $85 for five years. it's a huge investment even if
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you travel a couple of days a week there's also programs like clear which actually bump you to the head of the precheck line. these are tools that frequent flyers use to save time in lines. the general tsa lines can be hours long and not getting any better if your flight is canceled, you know, a lot of airlines for this weekend offer weather waivers, and what that allows you to do is change or cancel for free if you are stressed out already and you don't -- if you can change your plans this weekend, you can actually call your airline, see if there are waivers for your flight, and then travel when it's a little bit less stressful of a weekend. >> brian, ironically enough, you can't even get tsa pre reason or global entry because of the partial government shutdown, but there are other ways of doing it take us through as well there are credit card perks. there's all kinds of travel rewards things that can happen lounge accesses. what can you do on that front that you can actually control this time because you can't go to tsa >> well, you can still sign up
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for clear. it takes five minutes. that's only in about 40 airports, though, so check to see if it's out of the airport you're in. that will bump you to the front of the line, and i can't say especially in times like now that can be very valuable. i think the biggest thing is when you go to the airport, if you go to the airport stressed out, it's going to be a bad experience. you can always call a foreign customer service center like the airlines customer center in mexico all the phone reps will speak english, but you won't wait in two-hour lines to get through to a rep. >> before we let you go, brian kelly, i always get asked and
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everybody does, when they bok a ticket, do you want travel insurance. should i buy it? >> in general a lot of credit cards will give you trip delay and cancellation, so my recommendation is just book your flights through a credit card that protects you automatically. there are some travel insurance packages, but most of the time when you are offered through a website it's actually travel protection, and it's a lot less -- it's a lot less -- offers less coverage than trip insurance. understand the difference and do your research. >> always read the fine print. brian kelly, thank you so much for joining us this morning on all those travel advisories. well, coming up next on the show, shutdown showdown. the d.c. dysfunction is taking a big toll on small businesses we'll get a pulse check on main stream when "worldwide exchange" returns after this
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the partial u.s. government shutdown now small business is starting to feel the big pinch as well. kate rogers is here with more on that pulse from the main street. >> hi, dom that's right it would be entrepreneurs that are starting to feel the ripple effects like elizabeth she was in the process of launching her hot sauce company, dell sauce, just as the government shut down she and her husband make the sauces in a commercial kitchen in their richmond, virginia, area, growing their own peppers and experimenting with flavors their contact at the fda is now furlowed, putting the approval that she says she needs to move forward on hold. >> i feel a little bit like political pawns right now because, yes, border security is important, but we don't have anything to do at the border security right now we are just trying to open a hot sauce business sfroo. >> the fda told cnbc in a statement "while we cannot speak to this specific situation, only certain fda food operations
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continue to the extent permitted by law, such as activities necessary to address imminent threats to the safety of human life." meanwhile, outside of pittsburgh, pennsylvania, amanda is worried about the growing backlog at the small business administration when it comes to loan approvals she's in the process of opening up a bar method franchise location that's relying on a $350,000 loan from the sba now, she's getting ready to prepare to close on that loan to renovate her studio, but she's concerned that her project will be delayed due to the ongoing shutdown >> i have no control over what's happening in the government right now, and i feel like my business is being held hostage my business isn't political. it's a fitness studio, and i feel very helpless and very hopeless >> the sba told cnbc in a statement, "once full operations are permissible, the sba is fully prepared to handle higher volume of loan requests to satisfy any unmet demand."
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hopefully, you know, aupt par entrepreneurs like this will end up being okay. it's a valid concern that if the government remains shut down that the backlog could grow, and that will cause more ripple effects. >> those are just two samples of what i'm sure hundreds of thousands of americans are feeling right now. >> yes >> if not millions with regard to getting caught up in some of the red tape are there any themes or trends that you are seeing develop with regard to how these people view the shutdown or what their level of optimism or pessimism is? >> it's interesting. for something that's so political, they seem very frustrated just across the board due to the ripple effects of what's going on. you know, my business has nothing to do with this. can't we open the government and then find a solution to border security so that ingz this can get back up and running, people can go back to work, get paid, et cetera. i have heard that time and again from business owners there also seems to be a lot of fear and tension about what's going on and what this means as entrepreneurs you prepare for many different scenarios, and some businesses i spoke to did prepare for a potential shutdown, but others that aren't yet open, you know, they don't necessarily have the funding to
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keep going or keep paying rent on a studio that's not open. you know, while this goes on >> we've talked about sentiment being one of those leading indicators is there a shift in sentiment? do you feel as though small business owners are feeling a little bit less optimistic about the future of the economy and everything else because of things like the government shutdown >> you know, it's interesting. we'll see if that turns up in the nfib data which we will get in a few more weeks for january. i'm curious to see if that shows up i haven't heard a shift in sent mept yet i've heard frustration in hopes that the government reopens, and we're just talking to a handful of businesses all around the country, so i am curious to see what winds up happening with that, but i haven't seen it turn up just yet. >> thank you for that update because it's a huge story for a lot of americans out there right now. well, let's talk more about that big money impact of the government shutdown. joining me now is michael townsend, vice president of legislative and regulatory affairs at charles schwab. michael, you just heard kate's report she is not yet seeing a sentiment shift yet play out in the numbers, but is it fair to say that there is a huge concern
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about the economic impact of a government shutdown if it is prolonged beyond just the longest that we've seen already? >> dom, i absolutely think that's true. i think even the white house has said that there's about .1% impact on economic growth for each week that the shutdown continues. it's the small businesses, lunch places that are also affected, and i think there's not enough attention being paid to that it is really worrisome >> michael, we've heard reports now that more and more applications or demand have been out there to tap people's retirement funds from a hardship standpoint is that something that you are seeing play out, and how dangerous could that be for those workers who are trying to, in essence, raid their
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retirement accounts to help bridge the gap because they can't make ends meet right now >> yeah, that's something that really should be a very, very last resort. people should try to do everything they can not to touch that money because, as you said, you know, there are penalties and taxes that come into play. there's actually some legislation that has been batted around on the hill that is being thought about to be introduced to allow federal workers to tap in if maybe penalty-free that's got to go through the whole system, and i don't expect that to happen any time soon i think federal workers should be very, very careful about doing that >> what can these workers do in terms of a plan to help them bridge the gap between now and when they actually get a paycheck again we know that federal contractor -- or federal employees full-time are entitled to their full back pay, but what from a financial planning or advisory standpoint can be done to help them kind of make that way before they get paid again >> well, i think there are a couple of things certainly, you need to look at your budget. you need to look at what you can
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cut back on right now. also, talk to your lenders talk to your financial institutions to see if they'll be flexible on some of those payments particularly for the federal workers, as you point out, they are guaranteed that pay. that pay is coming the more difficult situation, though, as we all know, is the federal contractors who may not be guaranteed pay and others on that residual effect, the small business owners who depend so much on federal workers for are their business that's a more difficult situation, but obviously, just trying to figure out ways to stretch the cash that you have and work with financial institutions to see if they'll, you know, make kpepgs to their -- given the situation >> lots of things that potential affected employees can do at the federal level. thank you so much for joining us this morning >> thank you, dom. well, let's recap some of the other morning's top stock movers netflix shares, again, big stories. they are slipping this morning the company beating on
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subscriber growth, but missing on top line revenues the streaming giant also issuing weaker than expected revenue guidance for the first quarter those shares off by it.5%. now 2.25% in the premarket trade. american express fourth quarter profits missed forecasts as customers spending did slow despite the strong holiday shopping season. consumers took out more loans on their cards in the quarter which drove up provisions for credit losses those shares off by over 2%. shares of j.b. hunt higher today. the trucking company's fourth quarter adjusted earnings easily beat forecasts while revenue was in line. a slump in inter-modal shipments was offset by strong gains in jb hunt's long haul and contract trucking business. those shares up by 5.5% in early trading. again, we just want to recap that big breaking news happening this hour on tesla shares are falling right now on news the company is planning big job cuts tesla ceo elan musk sending a letter to employees calling the cuts "very difficult."
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tesla shares down 7% the team at "squawk box" will have coverage picking up here. we'll see you, again, on monday. have a great weekend y say that e future in the palm of our hands. that's great. but right now you've got your hands full with your global supply chain. okay, france wants 50,000 front fenders by friday. that's why you work with watson. i analyzed thousands of contracts and detected a discrepancy. it works with procurement systems you already use to help speed up distribution without slowing down your team. frank, tell fred full force on those french fenders. fine. fine. fantastic. for ai that knows your industry, choose watson. hello! the best ai for the job.
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skbrienchts conflicting reports on trade and officials denying a report from "the journal" about a proposal to lift tariffs to expedite a trade deal with china. that nooufed markets yesterday we'll see what it is going to do this morning it is friday, january 18th, 2019 "squawk box" begins right now.
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♪ everybody's working for the weekend ♪ live from new york, this is ""squawk box." good morning, everybody. welcome to ""squawk box"" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and -- right now green arrows across the board. dow futures indicated up by 70 points s&p futures up by 5.5, and the nasdaq up by nine. this comes after gains for the market once again yesterday, and those gains really kind of kicked off after we heard a report on dow jones that was saying that there was talk that we could potentially be seeing trade tariffs dropped against the chinese. that was apparently an idea thatstein mnuchin, the treasury secretary, had floated it's still weird to figure this all out. >> the treasury department saying there's no formal proposal to do that, but, yes,

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