tv Squawk Box CNBC March 8, 2019 6:00am-9:00am EST
that's all we need predictions straight ahead it's march 8th, 2019, and "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ >> live from new york where business never sleeps. this is "squawk box." good morning welcome to "squawk box" leer on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernan and andrew ross sorkin, and let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures. they are indicated in the red on this friday morning. right now indicated down by about 112 points for the dow s&p down by 13 the nasdaq off by 48 this comes after declines yesterday where the dow was down 200 points yesterday s&p was down by about .8%, and then the nasdaq was the biggest loser in terms of percentage base yesterday it was down by more than 1.1%. major averages are on track for a decline. the biggest declines in a month. all three major averages closed at three-week lows we'll see what happens on this
friday because if you look overseas, things have been worse. the dow transports, by the way, are now down ten sessions in a row. that, again, is setting a new longest losing streak in a decade that's a daily occurrence at this point as we continue to pile up those losses dow transports down by about 1%. overnight in asia, this is where the river really hits the road this morning the nikkei was off by 2% the hang seng was down by almost 2% the shanghai composite down by 4.4% because of that worse than expected trade data. exports actually down over 20% in the month of february some questioning whether china's trade recession has officially started to emerge. we're going to talk more with eunice yoon about this take a look at european equities after the ecb cut their growth yesterday, the red arrows continue there as well the ftse is the biggest decliner of the major averages. you see losses anywhere from half a percent to 1% across the
spectrum. >> how much do you ascribe to the trade war that the president has initiated and just domestic issues that we are highlighting about china as well. i just wonder what caused it to be so dismal >> well, part of it is seasonal factors. january and february numbers tend to be distorted, so there is, in part, seasonal reason because the lunar new year holiday fell in february like i said, there are a lot of economists right now who are going through these numbers and say that is not the only part of
the story. that the u.s. tariffs as well as the global slowdown also affected both the exports as well as the imports because everything looked pretty bad i'll just run through the numbers quickly. one was at the exports plummeted, as you guys were taulg about. 27.7% from a year ago. this is the worst in three years. compared to a drop of 4.8% the imports also fell by 5.2% from a year earlier compared to an expected 1.4% decline that's where people are saying that we could also be seeing the impact of a global slowdown and that, you know, in the coming months it's still going to look pretty bad the stock markets fell to a five-month low, and that's weighed down, in part, because of the sentiment around these numbers, which is -- i mean, it wasn't the only factor, but it was a big part of the reason also, the trade data was added to the discussion that's going on at the national peoples congress, the big annual gathering where there are several different lawmakers.
what has become clear is that dls a big division right now among the policymakers as to how this is all going to go. there's one camp that believes that -- this is adding to the trade numbers that we saw today. on the other hand, there are quite a few others who are feeling that china is giving up too much right now to the americans, and so they don't necessarily want to see a trade deal done. i think that really highlights how difficult things will be for some of the negotiators like the
vice premier to -- because of at the end of the day they need to sell this trade deal back home it's going to be harder to make concessions for the americans given that back drop >> what is it that the chinese citizens are unhappy about is it they have to stop stealing intellectual property? is it that they're going to have to lower tariffs on their goods if they don't want tariffs on ours >> the people i talk to, the manufacturing sector, they want the tariffs to go away that's their priority. when you talk to people at the mcp, they just -- there is this national pride element where loofr chinese policy makers don't want to be seen giving in
into the americans, and there's a historical precedent as well because there's a whole narrative in china that china has been a victim to foreigners for a very long time, and they don't want to be seen as giving up some sort of deal that would be good for foreigners, but not good for china that's all playing into it as well you know, then on top of that, there is just this current -- this current feeling among a lot of people within the government just like with xi jing ping that china needs to be able to stand strong and look as though it's making its decisions on its own rs and that it's not being cowed by an outside power. when we talk, i get you a lot of twitter followers. i know whenever you talk about it, says i get, like, 100 twitter followers. joe has that big of following? >> i do. i do no, andrew is the one with the following. you know who has -- aoc has 3.5
million, which just shows you -- >> i know. >> -- how much trouble we're in in this country right now. you're tweeting stuff that you are instigating. i'm not going to mention anything about it because i just am too afraid, but you're instigating, so if people are interested in how you're instigating, you can follow eunice yoon at eunice -- okay. >> no, it's only yoontv. i'm not instigating because i'm not showing the animal -- the top of the animal. only the bottom of the animal. that would be -- >> skating -- >> it's an animal. it doesn't wear clothing, but that's okay. it's an animal >> what the hell is -- what is he is he a little bear? >> he is a teddy bear. >> i think we've gone too far already.
>> she could be talking about the markets and the bearish sentiment. >> very cute cuddly bear >> that's good that's good. >> bad market day. of course, you would be putting that >> update me on your twitter additions today and if it's -- >> okay, i will. we're still on, by the way this whole conversation haven't been blacked out it's really good >> it's because -- >> we found a way around the sensors. >> they're eating or something she's fine she's not doing anything they have no -- thanks, eunice an update on the trade front. the u.s. ambassador to china speaking overnight terry brand stat said that the u.s. and china is not set a date for the meeting between trump and xi because neither side feels that a trade deal is imnint he said we're not there yet, but we are closer than we've been for a very long time both china and the u.s. have floated the possibility of holding talks at the end of this month. >> we have a big interview coming up later this morning on cnbc.
job predictions that's coming out at 8:30 eastern time. it's less than two and a half hours away forecasters are calling for 1 80,000 new jobs to have been created during the month the wall street whisper number coming in lower. we will explain that next. right now as whaed to a break, let's take a look at the biggest premarket winners and losers in the dow. right now it looks like travellers is leading the way. it's up by .6% so with xfinity mobile
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joining us right now to break down their expectations and what they're looking for this morning is michelle gerrard, chief u.s. economist at nat west markets, also -- where do you land within those numbers? >> i'm actually at 235, which is kind of in line with recent trends i had to be honest, when i started to do my forecast, after that 304,000 gain in january, i fully expected to be softer than i was.
it's incredibly impressive at this late of the cycle and will still be consistent with solid job growth i wouldn't look at any one number if we get the whisper numbers and react and think that things are really worrisome. >> where are you >> i'm looking for about 165,000, and the reason for that is that last month we got a lot of distortions, and the household survey used to complete the unemployment rate a lot of the people that were government workers were not counted. they were on temporary lay-off in the establishment survey they were counted as long as they would eventually get paid. the employment number will be lower, and the household survey will be higher, and that's one of the reasons why the unemployment rate is going to be much lower in this time. and then everybody is going to be focused on average hourly earnings that one i am really focused on because one of the reasons that everybody complains that earnings have been very weak is because the average duration of unemployment in this economic
expansion has been much higher it's averaged more than 31 months, says and at 31 weeks, and guess what, that is a very, very high number because the number when the government considers people long-term employees is 27 weeks. the longer you are unemployed, guess what happens your wages start actually moderating that's been the real big factor that has moderated wage growth this time. not too many people mention it >> meaning when you come back into the work force, you will not get the same. >> average duration of unemployment in this expansion has been much higher than any economic expansion as far back as the data takes me all the way back to the 1960s. >> wee we're bringing in more i'm people >> they don't really have a lot of labor market power when you bring new people in. >> we are seeing wages beginning to, you know, to turn up
that's exactly right, and the trends towards higher wages, of course, helping that i mean, it's both a reflection of the fact we're scraping to be able to find workers, but also enticing -- >> that's an interesting reason as to why we might not be seeing inflation. why is the inflation not here. why hasn't it shown up >> the average durationis stil over 20 weeks, and that's still pretty long. even though it has come down dramatically, but during the entire expansion, the average duration has been over the average that we've seen in 70% of the time. remember, the government defines the long-term unemployment at 27 weeks. we've been over 27 weeks or longer over 70% of the time. >> jerome powell, he may know the numbers by now, but if he is watching the numbers with everybody else this morning what is a number that would be too hot for him and what's too cold for him, because that's how the market will ultimately do the good news is bad news and bad news is good news game that
we've been playing for too long. >> this fed has made it clear it's going to be patient it's going to take more than any one number today several officials have been very clear. we're talking about several meetings where the fed is going to be assessing in coming months whether or not further action is warranted. the other thing is, remember, they're looking at their monetary policy framework, and one of the things they're actively considering is whether or not to allow inflation to overshoot in order to, you know, provide an off set when things are weaker again, this is a fed that is not inclined to take preemptive
action just on strong growth to take interest rates higher >> you can make the argument this whole china-u.s. trade story is an overhang on everything else from them anyway >> well -- >> because they have said that they're looking at that as a meaningful issue >> absolutely. trade escalations and global economic uncertainty >> and the numbers we're seeing today from china fromyesterday with the ecb taking down europe's growth numbers. i mean, that is starting to kind of build and say, wait a second. we can with stand a lot, but could we continue to with stand that what do you do with those numbers, michelle? just for your at home. >> you continue to be watchle. there's no urgency to be raising interest rates you see down side risk globally. you see the ecb signaling they're not likely -- they're not going to hike rates through 2019, and everyone thinking it's probably well into 2020. if the fed is going to -- it raises the hurdle already high for the fed to keep going because to do so would strengthern the dollar and further undermine both global growth and obviously growth at home >> so to the extent you are
moving towards average inflation targeting for the fed as michelle has pointed out, that mean it allows the fed to tolerate a little more hotness on the overall economy, and then, finally, to the extent that the central banks, including europe and to some extent maybe even japan maybe joining the bandwagon, and not raising rates quick enough, that gives the federal reserve a little bit more breathing room. an earnings miss from lr acroix. >> la croix. >> i don't like it that much >> lot of it >> like kale details next >> yeah, it did. obvious.
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that's the second wage hike in the last year. marvell technology roughly in line the chip maker expects to struggle in the next few months issuing week e weak guidance the company blaming macroconditions, but expects growth to pick up again in the second quarter shares of eventbrite losing a quarter of the value today the event management and ticketing website reporting a wired than expected fourth quarter loss on profit revenue beat forecasts and it had strong growth and ticket sales. the company also providing a weak outlook for the first quarter. >> and let's talk about this -- we like this kind of fizzy water. is that what they say? shares of la croix however you want to say it this morning. >> la croix.
that's the island. >> that's it is other way to do it >> the maker of what is called national beverage tumbling this morning. here's what's going on it's down, by the way, we should say 13.5%. the company reported a huge earnings miss. ceo nick is blaming the company's poor earnings on what he is calling "injustice." the ceo released a very -- there was a strange statement explaining this fall he says "negligence nor mismanagement nor woeful acts of god were not the reasons much of this was the result of injustice! "managing a brand is not so different from caring for someone who becomes handicapped. brands do not see or hear, so they are at the mercy of their owners or care providers who must preserve the dignity and special character that the brand exemplifies. well, if he meant to help, he was unsuccessful shares have fallen nearly 14% since the statement was
released not sure if we know what the statement meant. the 82-year-old ceo has been accused of sexual harassment by two men who formerly worked at the company as pilots for the company's business jet never said what the injustice was. >> was he referring to the accusation against him >> there were also some stories about la croix, and they put chemicals in it. maybe that's what he was talking about. he never described in the thing. groo canadian how these bez can have zero cal raies and zero everything and still have a taste. pepsi has buble. they also get away with zero >> it's not zero calories, but
it has real juice in it. >> that has no calories. >> only 6 calories or something. >> just beyond the overall time in the united states as we saw from abigail i think basically it's just, you know, if there's injustice there's just injustice i want fairness. there is injustice in the world. >> i don't know if -- i think in this country it's much better than 99.99 of the rest of the world. most people are not sitting around comparing themselves to other people in other ktsz >> if you could pick any country -- >> it's a high -- >> crappy la croix sales because of the injustice there's injustice. >> the question is the injustice that pepsi and everybody else is now making >> yes, they are facing
injustice too. >> it could be called competition. >> and it's unjust >> we have two hours to talk about it >> in the name of president trump standing on his line yelling. that's kind of you right now you're going to -- >> market warningsigns maybe some injustice right here. we're going to talk about to the dismal trade data out of china overnight. actually, they think that's an injustice. the potential for european contagion, that would be an injustice as well. the today's jobs report, we're going to hope it's not an injustice. we look at yesterday's s&p 500 winners and losers
welcome back you're watching "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. >> welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc take a look at u.s. equity futures on this friday morning ahead of the big jobs number we'll get that at 8:30 a.m. this morning. that is going to move markets, but right now the dow looks like it would open off 115 points the nasdaq off about 47 points, and the s&p 500 off about 12 stories. i think the explanation is our top story this morning, which is the stocks in china plummeted after china's export data for february came in much lower than expected export number plunged 20.7% missing forecasts of 4.8% decline. imports fell 5.2%. also, much worse than expected china's trade surplus just over $4 million that presents a dramatic drop-off from 39 billion the month prior. you are looking at the asian sell-off there with the shanghai
composite off 4% all of this on top of worries about whether we're going to get a trade deal with china and when and if that may or may not come. also on today's squawk planner, the jobs report taking center stage. that's at 8:30 a.m. this morning. forecasters expecting an increase of 180,000 nonfarm jobs, and a slight decrease in the unemployment rate. we'll get january housing start numbers. >> the euro a little firmer this morning, but still near its lowest level since june of 2017 after europe's central bank cut its growth forecast and announced a series of stimulative measures yesterday for more on what the ecb's move means for investors, both in the united states and abroad, let's bring in kathy lee, managing director of fx strategy at bk asset management
also joe i realize it's not as much of a currency play, but just this weaker growth story that's marching through that's going to be a big issue what should we anticipate? >> what's really interesting about the chinese trade data is they're not the only ones reporting terrible trade data. this is definitely a global story, and i think a lot of the pain is being feld around the world, and the problem that we have is that there's no set date for this "signing summit it's been a lot of reports that perhaps china wants to, you know, back down to certain terms and wants certain terms on their front. i think, you know, there is the propensity by this administration chapging their mind at the last minute. china has been reserved about this, and i think it was a desperate need from hearing that from the european central bank and hearing about it from the -- or protectism to really be back, and i think until we get that announcement, you know, a lot of countries will be on edge as the data shows from this kind of
protectionism where. >> how come other countries are suffering at the same time the business of trade war between china. how does that apperipple through >> it's slower chinese growth. china consumers -- china consumers tremendous amounts of global product the e.u. tariffs could still be on the table, and i think that's what the european central bank is fearing that's why the euros are fearing too. >> a lot of cross guards, joe. what do you think when it comes to currency markets?
>> the demographic not there they provide the kind of growth you get here if you get this trade deal, it might alleviate a big enough -- it is longer it goes on and the more problems the world economy develops the greater the chance that the deal won't be enough to power things up. >> let me ask you maybe a counter intuitive question we look at it in 112 on the euro it's the lowest level in a while. i look at it and say why is the euro still at 112 versus the dollar when you are looking at brexit talks, when you are looking at how the euro may be crumble, how there's a lot of political uncertainty in places like germany and france, why is it still at 1 12? >> i think it will go down to
110 at the least and then 108. i don't think the euro long-term has any -- one of the things i think you've said was that negative interest rates have been a success okay i'm not going to make any comment on that. here's the success of what his failure looked like. that seems to me the type of statement you have made in preparation for the future with the central bank might try and move to negative rates that is no endorsement of the european economy by the european central bank >> i think if we take a look at the yield spreads, the last time we were at these levels in terms of german ten-year rates was in 2016 at that time we were at these levels i think that's the same type of course that joe mentioned that we're on right now because the external factors are really pushing lower. >> you think the euro has it
lower, and what's your favorite? pick one >> well, straight up euro-dlar, i think. i think the fed is in a tightening course. the ecb as joe just mentioned are very clear that there's no action that they're going to take this year, and they don't even think that it will be enough to mitigate the effects of brexit as well as protectionism. if this band on the wound is going to get septic, negative rates could be something they revisit. >> don't you agree with that even with president trump saying that something is a weaker dollar and it can be a good thing. not necessarily standing by the dollar >> presidents tent to say that for trade purposes i don't think it will have an affect on the market the interest rate drivers are only pointing in one direction i don't see how you will get a weaker dollar when the u.s. economy is the strongest one, and it seems to be doing well. when the fed although it's not
raising rates, at least is not worried enough to start dropping rates, and the ecb essential is. they make that very clear. that's a comparison you can put any kind of rett cal gloss on it that you want. the facts underneath are a weaker european economy and much stronger u.s. economy in comparison >> joe, cathy, thank you for coming in. >> pleasure. >> we have a wild story to tell you about this morning here's the question. your power cords, if you believe this, spying on you. that fear being raised by several u.s. tech companies according to new reports from the nikkei asian review. report says that executives from two taiwanese companies receive requests from american clients asking them to move out of china. the u.s. firms were worried that components such as basic things like power plugs could be tapped by beijing to access sensitive data the report didn't say which american companies made those requests, but some of those
clients include google and facebook they are in the product of shifting from mainland china to taiwan, but the idea of things in your home could be listening to you >> you have -- of all the things that i have, how many of these things are made -- either made in china or made with parts from china? every one of your electronics. >> 99.99%. >> if you have questions about huawei, okay, but if you have questions about any chinese government influence over a company, look, we're all pretty vulnerable >> do they do that >> you have -- >> it's gotten more interesting. >> he really opened up it was part of a real
transparency effort by the fed they were the first out of the gate to get that >> with as much as president trump is talking about, jay powell, he is probably more of a household name and household interest than he would have been otherwise. >> they all are, though. i don't know why not go on cnbc or something? what kind of questions is he going to get from, i don't know who is going to do it? rare interview we'll have more on that next then, later, markets lower ahead of today's big jobs report our panel will be here to preview the report and provide instant reaction once we have it plus, big interview later this morning on cnbc. soft bank ceo masa son sitting down exclusively with david saber. it's a can't miss interview. sfx: [phone ringing]
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>> welcome back to "squawk." from fed minutes to 60 minutes jay powell will appear on cbs's 60 minutes over the weekend. it's a rare tv interview of a sitting federal reserve chairman steve guzman joins us with what we expect and what we may hear >> it's from the moment chair nominee jerome powell sat down for his hearing, the markets noticed the economic jargon was
gone powell made it clear early on he planned -- this showed two new regular reports to peel back bank sprfgs. for about a year markets applauded. reach out to the public. the fed was a long way from neutral prompting a sell-off and a couple of ors also created issues for the market. powell says with 60 minutes in an interview to air this sunday, first time the fed chairman has talked with the widely -- his interview took place when the fed was in the financial crisis. powell and the fed face criticism from the president he believed powell's campaign. the question is whether the benefits of monetary policy on the fed are appealing to the public outweighs the potential
risk of this miscommunicating the markets. that is the fed chairman, does he really talk to both the public and the markets >> i don't think tear going to talk about monetary policy i think that -- i don't think he will make the news of it >> what if he is just talking about the economy? >> i think that's right right. >> this is such a fine line to walk, that he can say something just an honest assessment that catches the markets. frontal boundary you put on that will screen we had, they were both not sensitive to the way the market was going to react. partlily, he couldn't know there were a couple of things in there. he said autopilot yellen said autopilot and watching paint dry, and then the market freekd out about autopilot.
>> there's a texture tension here between talking to the public and talking to the -- the markets are very precise and sensitive, and i guess i wonder does powell need this the way bernanke did >> on right. >> bernanke and the fed at that point were really out there in the public eye in terms of this whole new system quantity takive easing powell's issues, to the extent they are with the president, i think the fed really only cares about congress right? so congress is the one that shows me they pay the fed's bills. they're responsible for the fed act.
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trends ahead of today's number, founder of la salle network and a member of ypo, the surprise number last quarter got -- or last month, whether it was shutdown related or whatever, tom, can you in your experience or anecdotally in the last month can you tell us what to expect today based on what you've seen or at least what -- you know, do you have an idea do you have a feel for what we're going to see >> i've been in the jobs business for almost 25 years i've still never seen an economy and hiring as bullish as it is right now. and for some reason, people want to paint under 4% unemployment and a record stock market as a bad economy, that we should all be running around thinking the sky is falling i see it continuing to be great. maybe it's 180 as projected. maybe it's 220 the delta isn't really as important as there will still be new jobs being added and the economy continues to progress.
we see our clients being more bullish than they have been and more excited about where the economy is right now >> you know, the market's been down four straight days. there is a whisper number that's below what people were looking for. we had that retail sales number which had people worrying. you've got global slowdown you haven't yourself seen anything fall off a cliff in the way la salle has been transacting. >> not at all. business has never been better we're seeing clients hire in record numbers they want to take advantage of where the economy is now and build up for the coming 12 to 18 months that continues to be great technology's always good and we're seeing accounting and finance positions really increase as well which means they're continuing to build their back office so when we see the stock market dropping, maybe the reason is because they anticipate that the numbers are going to be good and the fed should increase over the
summer jobs are still in a positive place. >> so would you know if -- like, you felt the 300 in terms of things were positive do you think that you would know if things were negative? if we were going get a bad print, do you think you'd have a heads up on that or not necessarily? the reason i ask -- remember when we said coldwell bankers, when we have real estate people on oh, what a time to buy. rates are going up, ell, you got to lock them in now. they've got every way of telling you business is great and you've got to buy we don't even have them on anymore because they're so useless in giving us -- i'm not saying you are, tom. >> thanks. >> but you like business to be cranking for la salle. you don't -- aren't seeing anything that would indicate we could get a bad number >> just to prove i'm not worthless compared to the real estate guys, i have a recruiting business and a staffing business so we're usually, you know, the
cycle isn't as important for us because we're going to do okay in both. yeah, we would see the staffing business or the recruiting perm business drop a bit as companies wouldn't want to pay search fees if the economy were going down right now we're seeing recruiting fees at an all-time high we're seeing staffing numbers. they're bringing on people on a temporary and contract basis the signs continue to say from an employment level, the economy is going to be good for awhile >> all right i believe you. any specific areas that are -- i mean, manufacturing. that's something we don't talk about enough it is a much better place than a couple years ago >> manufacturing is way better than it was, you know, three, four, five years ago i just can't figure out why people are looking for bad things when everything looks rosy i guess we still have a hangover from the recession and i get it, it was bad but we sometimes just have to enjoy and realize that things can be good. it's okay. >> all right great, tom thanks appreciate it.
>> yep >> we'll see 8:30 when we return, let's take a look at the futures ahead of jobs friday. we're going to get you ready for the jobs number that could have an impact on the fed and your portfolio. right now dow futures indicated down after falling 200 points yesterday. just about an hour and a half to go before we get that jobs report "sawbo wl rhtac quk x"ilbeig bk. ♪
stocks under pressure after china's exports fall more than 20% in february. u.s. tariffs partially to blame for the miss will the jobs report make things worse or turn things around for the market we discuss straight ahead. it is international women's day and torry burch joins us. if you're rich and thinking of making the move to florida, there may be one person standing in your way. the tax man. robert frank will be here to explain. as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. live from the beating heart of business, new york, this is "squawk box.
>> good morning. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at the futures right now the dow looks it would open off 124 points right now. nasdaq off about 50 points and the s&p 500 off about we'll call it 14 points for now in large part because of what's taking place overnight in asia >> here's what's making headlines at this hour costco is one of this morning's early stock winners. costco reported quarterly earnings of $2.01 a share. costco also reported a jump in comparable store sales separately the company announced an increase for starting wages for its workers. increasing them by $1 to $15 an hour it's the second increase they've made recently. that stock is up by 0.47%. philadelphia has become the first major u.s. city to ban
cashless stores like amazon go stores lawmakers say they want to ensure access to lower income customers. new jersey's legislature also passed a similar ban though it's unclear whether governor bill murphy will sign it. and tesla has reached an agreement for a line of credit the $2 billion project is expected to be completed in may. all right. norway's trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund will start selling its shares in oil and gas companies. that will mean significant sales of stocks like royal dutch shell and exxonmobil the move is designed to reduce the vulnerability of the fund to a permanent oil price decline. the fund derives its income in part from norway's domestic oil and gas industry okay it is friday and the most important number of the month is coming the february jobs report will be released in less than 90 minutes. for a preview of what to expect, steve liesman is back with us
after our conversation about jerome powell and his "60 minutes" interview taking place on sunday. >> as you know, job growth is expected to slow in february it presents markets with critical questions let's look at the data first we're looking for 180k on the data do we have those charts? we do. you guys are great there 304 in january it's a step down unemployment down just a tenth adp came in at 183 versus 300 the month before so payrolls are drifting back to the average. is there some effect of the government shutdown? all that would be fine, but the concern is that jobs weakening is a broader -- in fact, slowing job growth has been exhibit number one in response to those who insist the economy is weakening. and it's been -- i think it's going to slow and i think it's going to be fine that's my take on things and by the way, economists and the consensus has been wrong to the downside for quite a while here job market has surprise to the
upside >> rick, hasn't he won our game usually the last couple of months you don't want to go there you don't want to give him that much >> basically he said hasn't he beat you recently? >> joseph kernen >> okay good for more on the markets which is moving lower, what's driving it, but more about the jos number, seth carpenter from ubs, darryl kronk. seth, i think you're kind of of the same mind of what we just heard from steve the first quarter in general mike waeb. i don't know what happens with the jobs number today. and the fed shouldn't forget that maybe there is a -- and darryl i think thinks there's another rate hike in the cards as well. >> yeah. we've got just one >> one more.
but the fed should stay vigilant and not assume that there's a global slowdown. >> absolutely. i think they need to pay attention in both directions we wrote back in december it became clear they were going to hike in december and probably they shouldn't they caught up with that several weeks later. but yeah, no we think the jobs number is going to come -- we're not too far away from consensus. we're at 175 we've been saying since last number we were going to get a slowdown in q4 last year and q1 this year because of the trade war with china that's going to cause a temporary drop in activity once we get through the first quarter, we should step back up to 2.5%. >> and ubs thinks a trade deal is imminent? >> it looks like the administration is willing to basically take what they can get to avoid sort of the pain and uncertainty coming from the back and forth with the trade war >> so we like to worry and there are worry warts all the time in your view things are still
very solid >> yeah. looks like the bones of the economy is pretty good there's always risks to an economy. and i get uncomfortable if i don't have something to worry about. but yeah once people get more confidence if the trade deal is reached, we should be able to step back up >> darryl kronk, have you met diane swonk? >> yeah. >> i don't know why we don't do that every time. >> you've got to make it happen. >> because we have you separately i guess it's confusing so you heard -- you have similar feelings >> yeah. we think the fed is one more time second half of the year as for today, we're going to buck the trend a bit and say lower jobs this morning. for a couple reasons one is you pulled through decent jobs growth in january to the survey week in february when we took the survey, big snow a lot of weather, right? which tends to impact the numbers. and three, if you go back and look at the math, whenever you
get really slow retail sales and weak pmis and some of the weak industrial production and durable goods, all the batch of weak economic data, what tends to happen is jobs lag by about 30 to 60 days. and you see a slowdown that probably shows up here in the february data. >> one more maximum though can i ask both of you just something that i hear bandied about by the people that are really negative. and that is that we're having a lot of trouble normalizing because we averted disaster ten years ago, but we did it in a way that was going to have long-term consequences we built the foundations and at this point, we've -- you know, issued so many -- so much free liquidity that at some point as we try to raise rates, we just can't do it anymore. and there is a big day of
reckoning coming is there any truth to that >> there might be. >> what do you mean there might be >> so obviously when there's more debt, people become a little bit more sensitive to interest rates, but i think the general cyclical behavior is roughly intact we're in this longer run trajectory of more disinflation. >> that's all it is? it's not that we're unable to raise rates because we've inflated things too much, that's not what it is >> that's not my take on it. i would have said instead what happened was the fed because they were sort of very much taken by the patterns of the past started raising rates in 2015 and 2016 on the forecast that inflation was going to rise they were just premature. >> what's the new -- do you adhere to the new monetary policy what's it called it's the aoc -- >> modern monetary policy. >> are you guys modern i want to be modern. i want to -- >> i'm all in. >> you don't believe that for a second >> not for a second.
>> larry summers doesn't believe it >> it's 100% true. the government can print as much money as it wants to pay its bills until it can't >> right but nobody knows when that is. >> when you debase something, you know where that comes from it comes from the thousand millennial history of emperors and dictators of putting base metal into precious and that debased the currency so we can pay bills. we can write checks. we can just click keys and send people money. >> we need $94 trillion to make -- >> hold on a second. joe, how much do you want? >> $94 trillion. because we want to make everything free. but we need $94 trillion if we can print it, why not do it it's not a cost. it's an investment right, andrew? to solve the injustice, dude, that we were just talking about. can we do it >> so the mmt folks would say the limit on these things comes
when you start to see inflation which is the same thing steve says there is a way you can take their arguments and convert them into fairly standard macro thinking about these sorts of things their point that, you know, you keep issuing government spending and that's going to increase the money supply that's based on the assumption that the fed is -- >> we might be able to do more deficitwise. look at everybody on the deficit has been wrong >> the inflation rate was over a million. >> might or might not. >> if trade deficits and budget deficits are where they are, you would think the dollar would be even right? you'll see -- >> unless comparing it to everybody else like the ecb. >> you're going to see it show up in rates. >> it's a comparative strategy though. >> it is but it will eventually show up because you won't be -- >> thanks. music. unless you like that anyway, thank you. darrell, seth, thanks.
when we come back, stocks on the move in the premarket. and later, if you're considering a move to florida for the sunshine and the lower taxes, one group could stand in your way. state tax collectors robert frank has that story coming up. ren hi "ua b" sqwkox he ocnbc ♪ ♪ dear tech, let's talk. we have a pretty good relationship. you've done a lot of good for the world. and when we work together, we get a lot done. dear tech, we're showing girls that stem isn't just a boy's club. we're using blockchain to help reduce poverty. we're developing new solutions with the help of quantum technology. let's do it all. together. let's expect more from technology. let's put smart to work. ♪ ♪
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welcome back, everybody. let's take a look at stocks to watch this morning big lots reporting fourth quarter results. the discount retailer earning $2.68 a share beating estimates. and the company also announcing a $50 million share repurchase program. that stock is up by almost 10% cowan downgrading exxonmobil with the $75 price target. the downgrade comes after the analysis this week keeping its ability to cover its dividend years away. but investors are more willing to pay for excess free cash flow right now. we did speak with ceo darren woods after the company's investor day in new york and asked him about returning capital to shareholders. >> i would tell them, you know, what we're interested in doing
is making sure they're making value. the way we look at that is for our business to be successful over any of those time frames, you got to have productive value and investments. we're in a depletion business. every year if you're not investing to keep your business whole, you're retreating we've got to basically continue to establish good investments as we go through time as the business continues, the natural depletion of our resources so the projects we put into the portfolio have very good returns, are accretive, and are advantage versus the rest of competition. what happened when the prices came off in 2014 with ab lot of industry pulled back >> that's been the big question on the street, though, trying to figure out whether you want them to be reinvesting and giving back to shareholders right away or reinvesting and finding new assets yesterday we spoke with john kilduff who said he thinks this is a much better strategy. you want to buy low, not buy high
>> all right that's a good idea so sorkin, did either one of you guys see the shkreli piece >> yeah. >> did it read it? >> i did he's running the company from prison what was the part that got you >> that he's been, like, working out a lot and he's -- that he's been working out a lot and he's up to 15 push-ups in a row remember our -- >> our push-up contest >> 15 though he was scrawny >> when you have all day with nothing to do. >> but 15? i'm over -- i think i can almost do my age. you're not ready for -- >> i'm not ready for that, no. but i am ready for this. coming up when we return, bank of america teaming up with totor tory burch's foundation. she's joining us after the break to talk about the fund, the
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we are talking this morning about female entrepreneurs today is international women's day. bank of america is committing $100 million to capital for small business owners through the tory burch capital program we are joined to talk about this with andrew plepler and tory burch. both of you, welcome great to have you here today. >> thank you so much >> let's talk a little bit about what this money's going to be going for. tory, this is a cause near and dear to your heart tell us how you got into this. >> it was part of my business plan from the beginning to have a foundation so to see this come to fruition is beyond my wildest dreams. we've given out $46 million across the u.s. to female entrepreneurs. we could not be more thrilled.
>> why women entrepreneurs although it's probably pretty obvious. >> they have a harder time, to be frank, getting loans. they have a lot of our entrepreneurs are so inspiring they're often single mothers sometimes they have two jobs and their businesses are creative and they have real legs to grow. >> what's the process? they come to you, they come to you? how does this work >> well, they can come through various pipelines. but we have these partners called community development financial institutions which are nonprofit lenders. which have a greater flexibility to lend to these types of entrepreneurs. so we lend out money to these and they lend to the entrepreneurs. >> and the statistics on this, when you look at the percentage of women-owned businesses, it's something like 40% right now but still only 2% of venture capital dollars are going to those female-led businesses. why do you think that is >> you know, we started this five years ago with that very
problem in mind. which is access to capital is a huge issue and i think it's they haven't -- you know, this is sort of generational they haven't been in businesses long that's often a barrier to financial institutions providing loans. i think what we're able to do, get them capital through the cbfis and then we think they will be bankable over time >> what have you found from the women you're loaning to at these times? >> they pay back their loans i have to say, i have been amazed by some of the businesses and the creativity behind them some of the way that they have dealt with enormous issues and just overcome them the number we saw was 90% of the loans get paid back. >> i thought it was higher but women pay back their loans
>> did you have trouble getting financing when you were starting out? >> i was lucky i went one round but i went broad. i had 150 friends and family and i said whatever you invest, just be prepared to lose because i was so terrified of taking people's money and then we just did one round and that was not -- that's not a usual case though. >> we were just having conversation with steve liesman with the work they do on the ground they're able to sit down with them and do this effectively does this take away some of the requirements that bank of america has for cra under this >> we -- this is not a cra play for us because it's more part of our business they have greater flexibility. they're great to work with
to your point, they're on the ground they have a higher touch ability to work with these entrepreneurs. more patience. it's just a great vehicle. i'm glad you know about it >> and visited the mississippi delta. and cdfis are playing a major role in places that it's hard for big banks to go into >> we have $1.6 billion lent to cdfis in our portfolio which is a great resource >> tory, what do you think of different pension funds and others mandating certain amount of money in terms of venture and other investments in women-led businesses in terms of quotas. does that make sense to you? what do you think the right move is >> i mean, for me, it all makes sense to invest in women and i think any chance we can to get different kinds of investors involved like that, of course, yes. do you not
>> well, it's not do i not, no but i think there's a debate going on about what is the right way to encourage and incentivize money to get to women-led businesses and how that should work whether banks should devote certain buckets. what needs to happen to really sort of turn the spigot on in a meaningful way >> i think this is starting happen in a meaningful way when you see the numbers. when you say 2% of venture capital, that's pretty stunning. and that's why we're addressing that i don't know how that works per se, but you tell me. >> i think the way to do this is to make it more mainstream we can do it through cdfis we can also do it by getting these -- >> and we incentivize cdfis. once we did that the and had them tell our story, that really moved the needle and it's starting to move it
more >> a lot of this is something that maybe is beneficial in a booming economy at this point. you've got a lot of business opportunities that are out there. what do you think happens potentially if the economy slows down do you continue to see it? and i'll ask both of you that question just from what you've seen at the banks perspective and tory, you as something who has operated at up and down times. >> this program we think is very viable through good economic times and through challenging times. because again, the cdfis are the great vehicle that can take on a little added risk. they can endure some of the downturn we think it will be more challenging to get them in the mainstream our hope is this transitions into more permanent bankable transactions >> what's the interest rate? >> the interest rate is we discount through som
philanthropic support. discounted down to about 8% to 10% from what would be about -- which is still better than your credit card or other places you would get the money. >> tory, what do you see right now in terms of the economy? you're in a high-end area. there are so many questions circulating. >> i'm always skeptical in general. so that's how i look at our business i'm always ready for something after 2008 when business turned around in basically one day. right now i think it's strong. and even in china when you look at some of their numbers, china's our biggest area for growth and it's a very exciting market for us right now. >> do you worry about the trade? >> yes, of course. of course i do >> are you feeling that in any way now? >> yeah. we don't want a trade war. that's for sure. >> but have you felt just in --
>> taxes >> yeah. >> the chinese are not traveling as much as they were the traffic is down certainly. obviously we don't want any more taxes on imports >> well, i want to thank you both for being here today. tory burch, really appreciate it also andrew plepler. >> the one and only andrew plepler. >> i saw the richard reference >> did i just say richard? >> earlier >> the other brother >> we know richard too thanks for being here. >> thank you so much a lot more to come on "squawk box" this morning. the february jobs report, it could change the way the market's tone takes. we'll see what path it will take later this week or later this morning. as we head to a break, take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour. we are in the red. dow off about 120 points s&p 500 off 12 points. we are back in a moment right here on cnbc
stand in your way of making that move robert frank's going to be here to explain all of that then at the top of the hour, our official countdown to the jobs report begins. we've got a panel of some of the brightest market minds ready to bring you their predictions and so much more and then online retailer etsy hosting their first investor day since going public stock's been on a roll this year the company's ceo is going to join us to discuss the e-commerce cpetiomtion "squawk" returns with all of that in just a moment. we can do the screening at her house. hi. this is the man that's going to check your eyes grandma. cognizant ai solutions are helping healthcare companies advance diagnostics and prevent blindness in patients with diabetes. everything looks good. you have beautiful eyes. ♪
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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning investors carl icahn has raised his stake in cesar's entertainment. a new s.e.c. filing shows icahn owns 15.5% from a prior holding of 9.8%. last week icahn and cesar's struck an agreement. all right. the markets slumping after the ecb cut its growth forecast. with major averages on pace for their final week this year the nasdaq posting their biggest declines in a month while all three major averages closed at lows but there are signs of positive
activity amid the selloff. mike santelli joins us with more on that. >> i think the market went up in three weeks that insulates you from thinking the first pullback is anything serious. if you look at the longer term chart of the s&p, this shows you that for the fourth time really the s&p pretty much stopped at that 2800 level. everyone's talking about the reason the second line down below, it's actually 2640. the reason i put that in there is that's kind of where you figure this pullback could go to and still be a no big deal you see it kind of bounce there twice in the fall. so that's where i think people are looking at this. even if we get down there. that's why you put it in context. i do think you can for now say it looks fairly benign in the context of this big rally. but the technicals give you reason to say this might have
been a bounce off the lows i think what we want to see here is make sure credit stays okay it is so far okay. the index itself is fine that's when the markets start to brace for something out there. one thing i find, valuation is neutral. sentiment is pretty neutral. people didn't get overexcited on the rally. in fact, you saw outflows from equity funds in the last week. >> what did you make of the interview where he said it's not going to spike down. it's going to be this slow gradual painful -- and maybe it won't feel painful in the moment -- sort of move lower >> i think the issue is -- grant is kind of trying to assimilate that with his existing long-term view which is he really didn't think we'd get anywhere -- >> is it longer than five? >> he's been expecting -- >> i remember it you have any institutional memory >> i do. but i thought i'd ask the question because he had the interview yesterday. >> he reason he was saying it
would be a grind is if he feels we didn't get that bubble-like move to the upside so he at some point, he's been bearish and finally said you know what? this thing won't go down i think we're going to get a crazy thing to the upside. so i think he's navigating around that. the big takeaway was for a value investor, if you have a horizon, emerging looks cheaper and some math takes you in that direction whether or not it's going to happen >> longer than david stockman, i think. >> i don't know about that >> maybe not longer. like krugman comes out with something negative and it's like you rush it out there. i mean, you can't just keep doing it again and again and again and again and again and again. >> they use -- they got a lot of credibility for these seven-year total return forecast. and for years there was a mechanical way of determining. they were right for a long time. over a seven-year period they've undershot that more recently look i think the idea of keep expectations really low, but
stay involved. that doesn't really kill you >> what about just the market sentiment, everything you just said about how this is set up. where does that leave us with the jobs report today. if we come in at the headline, come in above. >> the market kraefs a stronger number or an on-target number meaning i think we're now kind of bathed in the global slowdown story again. i don't think you want a number that says, oh, it will make the fed dovish >> the hot number's not going to change that. >> and the treasury yields are lower than you might want if you're expecting a reacceleration of growth >> given all this news from china and europe this week, you want to see it's still standing. >> i think first quarter numbers are going to be given a long leash because of the shutdown and other noise. >> thank you good to see you. coming up, the cat and mouse game between tax collectors and wealthy new yorkers who move to florida. it's now reached new levels. robert frank will be here to discuss that and a programming note, big interview coming up later this
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more new yorkers are considering a move to florida. it's not possible to just do it? what because of the sunshine state and lower taxes. what but they face a major road block. state tax collectors robert frank has the story of the growing arms race between auditors and wealthy new yorkers headed for the exit. oh, boy. seems too good to be true. >> new york state audits about 3,000 people a year who move to change their tax residency after the new tax law, those audits will become more common and a lot more aggressive. new york collected $1 billion from residents changing their tax residency, many to florida, between 2013 and 2017. about half of those audited lost and the average amount collected was $144,000 tax lawyers say the audit rate for high-income earners
relocated is now 100%. the myth is that as long as you're in florida for 183 days, you're legal but auditors focus on domicile proving the permanent principle home is in florida that includes pets make sure your dog stays in florida and is kennelled when you travel your prized possessions, important artwork, family photos, wedding albums, should all be in florida. along with your dentist, your country club, charities, and even your food. >> what they're looking for is they want the refrigerator in the new york apartment to have, you know, a can of beer, whatever else the person might want, a soda on the other hand, the refrigerator in florida should look like thanksgiving >> new york will also subpoena cell phone records so it can see exactly where calls and texts originate and it tracks your social media that's created a new industry of apps that allow users to track their location and travel days to make sure they're come
plying the largest tax residency app says its business jumped 50% last year after the new tax law. the new york state department of tax and finance said ensuring the taxpayers pay their fair share is a top priority. therefore our non-resident audit program continues to be very active >> sounds like escape from new york >> exactly >> the real question, given the fact we often say that the irs is not auditing the very wealthiest or they don't have enough staff to do it, is new york at a much better position >> yeah. because the return on equity for them is huge these audits are netting them $144,000 per audit and they've raised a billion dollars over the last five years. they are staffing up >> what if they say no you really lived here -- even if you can prove you were somewhere else, they can say you owe us.
>> absolutely. >> who do you appeal to? >> to the department of new york taxation and finance the goal here is people know basically you say to the irs, i'll pay you a year or two of income taxes if you let me buy the estate tax getting out of the estate tax is the golden ticket for this process. it's a bit of an extortion game. what will it cost me to get out of the estate tax? you pay them a year or two of income tax to get out of the ultimate estate tax. >> who do you appeal to if you don't want to appeal to the state of new york? >> there is a tax court but it's all within the new york system you can't win. that's why these guys just end up paying. and sometimes these audits, it's not just one year. it's two or three years and they can take years to settle. >> to continue this discussion about the wealth tax debate and so much more, we're joined by
ceo of project hope. it's great to see you, sir >> good to be here >> help us, though, with this larger debate about wealth and inequality and taxes and really a conversation that's moved over the past or the of two or three months about taxes the wealthy part is a question about generating revenue but i think a lot of it is about an argument around fairness. >> on the last story, i think manhattan wants to be less like france atlanta is attracting capital. only international city in the south came from nothing. now it's traffic jams everywhere and people trying to get in there. >> you have long tried to help the poorest but you've also been a capitalist in the process. >> you have to first collect money like a capitalist. so i think, you know, people say oh we hate rich people no what they hate is the gamed
system so i think that we've sort of lost our story line a bit. if we took all the money in the world and gave it to everybody the same 3% would have it in five years how about we have an incentive tax? or a tax incentive for the wealthy where they fund financial literacy at scale, k through college. fund interships at scale fund apprenticeship at scale now people don't resent it and you're building up the wealth creators at the bottom of the pyramid to come up again all wealth came from poor people, by the way, most wealth. we should be nurturing more development of people versus just taxes somebody because you're angry they have it and you don't. i don't think that's a smart strategy i also don't think it's a smart idea to run somebody out of town that's promising you 25,000 jobs -- >> you're referring to amazon. >> hello you know, there's the gm building in manhattan, it's not
gm anymore there's a chrysler building in manhattan. it's not chrysler anywhere >> ge building isn't ge anymore. >> helhello. you're overindexed like way over here the second largest retailer in the world, amazon wants to bring the headquarters here. you say yes. and you young says you never turn away somebody beari inin i billions of dollars of development. >> i won't disagree with you yet, is this a financial literacy issue not just in new york but potentially in washington? >> especially with legislatures. >> you saw the argument made by the political leaders around the country on this very issue arguing against amazon being here >> yeah. i do believe that people don't understand the numbers i believe they're well intentioned. i don't think any of our legislators meant any harm but i think they're losing the war. you got this guy ed bostian.
ceo of delta put up a billion dollars for ramp workers to flight attendants shares the prosperity. now, he's not a socialist. he's a capitalist. but they're profitable one of the best airlines in the world. and on valentine's day distributed a billion dollars to employees. everybody wins and they rise i think we've got to find union representatives and ownership representatives have to find a common ground. they've got to win together because a house divided will perish the bible says that. >> john, it's never intentional. you know where the -- you know where a lot of good intentions lead and the path they pave. that absolutely happened with the amazon story >> we're winning battles and losing wars. >> that was a horrific -- you just -- you didn't mince words at all about that entire situation. it's a travesty as in fact aoc has used -- tragesty is the word
she used >> how do you fund that? are you talking about the wealthy doing more philanthropic -- >> no, no, no. i don't mind paying taxes. i do reasonably well i'm saying that, fine. charge me a tax. charge my wealthy friends a tax. charge them a tax. but let that money go to fund -- give me a tax break -- let me rephrase that. give me a tax break if i fund -- i'm talking hundreds of thousands of internships and apprenticeships. why are we philanthropic because we get a tax break for it why are you homeowners there's a tax break for it we respond to incentives incentivize the creation of wealth and opportunity and job skills at the bottom of the pyramid. 85% of the jobs we have today, poof, are going to go away
because they're retail jobs. roboti robotics, ai, et cetera. we've got to reimagine our economy. and upgrade capitalism it needs an upgrade. >> i have a philanthropy question for you how do you feel about taxing philanthropy in any way, shape, or form? hold on. hold on. >> get the camera on him. >> not on me the reason i ask the question -- >> don't we have enough problems >> again and again and again and again. >> there's an argument that has been made that some philanthropy, especially at the top level means that certain people that effectively it's subsidized by other taxpayers. meaning if you're able to direct your own money without it ever getting into the system, right so for better or worse i think bill gates is doing fabulous work i don't want to diminish anything he's doing. however, he's getting to choose what he -- where his money effectively is going it may not be going towards
these roads. so every other taxpayer is effectively subsidizing his choices. that's the argument against it and i'm just curious where you land >> i'm completely lost like -- >> but we go through this again -- >> really? you know what's going on in washington, d.c. >> other than you, who's saying this this is the tenth time you're bringing this up >> and you're a smart guy. i know there's something underneath this. this one i don't get >> i'll tell you what my problem is what i hear about is soaking the people that have the money i never hear how you're -- how we're going to make sure that we raise the people that we're trying to help and not squander them and i'm not sure a lot of people have answers for it. they're more interested in just capping the people at the top which is stupid. we want millionaires >> i'm going to say it one more time by the way, other than wealth that came through government, war, crime, mafia, most came
through poor people. goldman sachs was a guy named goldman. >> 85% of today's millionaires are self-made. >> we should be careful about the story line but the larger story is we're the most philanthropic country we need a tax code >> you can't feel virtuous when you say it that way. you can't feel good about yourself >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> you can't talk about fairness you can't do any of the things that people feel so much better about themselves when they talk about. >> you feel really good when you're getting a thousand interns. >> it's called the real world. >> i'll make you an honorary black man. it's not a false choice. you can do well and do good. i think the wealthy -- >> say it loud >> the wealthy i talked to would be honored to know that if they're paying more in taxes, it's going to something targeted
and progressive and positive and specific like internships. so if they say, look i'm going to lay "x" millions of my money to commit to internships or apprenticeships and i'm going to get some kind of a tax relief, tax acknowledgment they had to lay it out no shell game. real cash. okay that benefits everybody. the it's effectively the same as me writing checks to the tax man. i think that's virtuous. i think that's the best of america, frankly we need to do it at scale. you don't like that? just fund financial literacy why is financial literacy not any place? it's not on the -- >> why don't we have a box to donate to that >> i may need to take you to therapy. >> john hope ryan. thrilled to see you here, sir. always good to see you
robert frank, a great conversation about wealth in america. when we come back, the final countdown is on. we've got our jobs panel standing by with predictions and reaction to the most important number of the month. here are the futures ahead of those numbers. you're going to see right now dow futures down by 140. s&p off by 14. the sd dn 5naaqowby5. "squawk box" will be right back. ♪ ♪ hold on, i'm comin' ♪ hold on ♪ don't you worry, i'm comin' ♪ here i come when yowhat do you see?itical issues facing our world, we see a billion more people breathing free. we see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. we see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. at emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isn't just a result, it's a responsibility.
the countdown is on. the february jobs report is just 30 minutes away. our panel is ready for final predictions and a breakdown of all the numbers. >> yeah, if you could go ahead and make sure you do that from now on that would be great markets under pressure trade data from china raising more concerns about a global economic slowdown. could the employment report turn the futures around though? etsy holding its first-ever investor day the market place for crafts and creative goods has been an early winner of 2019 outpacing amazon in stock performance ceo josh silverman joins us exclusively with his vision of the company's future the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now
live from the most powerful city in the world, new york, this is "squawk box. >> good morning and welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin the futures are down significantly this morning down about 145 points. s&p indicated down 15 or so. and the nasdaq indicated sharply lower down 55 points this would be five straight days, i think, for the whole dow. >> worst week of the year but you are comparing that against ten straight weeks up for the nasdaq in a row. >> and we have no idea about 8:30 and how things could change although i think at this point good news would be good news >> i think so too. >> but you never know. they may have another quarter or half point left in them. treasury yields $2.64%.
the february jobs report coming out in less than a half hour from now. congress looking for 180,000 new non-farm jobs. employment falling from 4% we should note the whit per number is lower. it may also get lost in the jobs report this morning, but the government is going to be releasing january housing starts at 8:30. that report had been delayed due to the government shutdown forecasts calling for a 9.5% jump that was following an 11.2% decline in december. companies all seeing stocks move higher that have reported vail, big lots navistar falling on the bottom line the company is calling it the best quarter since 010 and you're looking at big lots
up over 10% right now. in less than half an hour's time, we're going to get the february jobs report first let's talk about what to expect joining us now is mary ann bartel, jim keenan, jason furman, and dave mcintosh. thank you all for joining us this morning and mary ann, why don't we start with you just set this up on a lot of concerns out of the china trade that came out today. what do you anticipate if anything that impact could have on the number that we've seen here too >> so, i mean, it's very obvious that things are growing, but at a slower pace. our internal data at bank of america is looking for a drop not as bad as consensus.
we're only 7% off the high things aren't terrible what i really see happening is, you know, the interest rates are a lot more than any had expected that's allowing risk assets to perform well and for the past ten years, people have been saying the 10-year has to get well above 10%. and i think that's the biggest surprise and so the economy is growing. but just not getting the momentum that we'd like to have. >> that's an interesting argument just from the perspective of it's not the economy stupid for the first time it's what you're seeing in the markets.
where you're going to get more bang for your buck >> well, i think if you look at it, just to take a step back, the economy is cycling lower, right? financial conditions tightened over the course of last year you're starting to see that flow into the overall economy and things are slowing obviously with the commentary in the fourth quarter around the fed, financial conditions tightened pretty dramatically. we would expect to see some data start to weaken up and slow a little bit that being said, it is a very healthy market and you continue to see pretty stable volatility around the number, but stable job growth around 200,000 a month you're seeing wages go up over 3% year on year. and labor participation is coming back which i think is important. that i think is going to lead to stability from the consumer of the market it may eat into some of the profit margins and some of the benefits that you've seen with the labor stock over the last ten years. but that to me creates an environment where you can cycle lower but you can stabilize at
lower growth levels. i think that'sa positive environment. >> jason, let's get to you and your take on what number we might anticipate given the slowdown we're seeing in the economy but also the situation with the government shutdown >> yeah. i mean, if you force me to guess, i'd say 195,000 that's a bit below the pace of above 200,000. we've had for the last six months you know, there's a bit of snow during the reference week. there's some indications the economy's slowing for all the reasons everyone else has said financial conditions and the like i don't think the government shutdown is going to show up in a huge way in these numbers. what i think, though, is the big puzzle is if we do get something 195,000, even 150,000, that'll be a lot faster than what it appearsthe pace of gdp growth is in the first quarter which looks like it's tracking more like 1%. and so the disconnect of fast
job growth slowing gdp growth means we may not be seeing the productivity boost and long run supply side we were hoping to see. now, it's way noisy, way early i wouldn't make too much out of this some of the emerging disconnect between the job market and the rest of the economy. >> what would explain something like that? >> a part of what could explain that is we didn't get a lot of productivity, but we've gotten a lot of extra demand. you know, fiscal stimulus said we'll go out and hire people but we're not going to make better use of them. you'll see employment go up. you'll see gdp go up temporarily. but you won't be able to sustain that and i think that's a reasonable interpretation from the data i would not overstate it it's early, it's noisy >> were you arguing that it was 3.1 last year or were you arguing it was 2.9 would you buy dinner for
goolsbee if you were me? which is it? i thought you were saying 3.1% >> you know, joe i have consistently preferred the year over year number. so i'm completely fine with the 3.1% i'm slightly worried you're the type of guy that might just look at the number and try to figure out which one would be over 3% and that's your favorite measure. >> yeah. then why do you give me -- you're giving me support, aren't you? so i should tell him i'm not -- should we split it >> joe, i think it's just a coincidence that you are right and you just picked it because you liked it so i think you should be buying austan dinner. >> you guys really stick together, don't you? guys in the obama administration that's really -- you know, you say it's 3.1% but you're still saying i should pay. >> exactly >> it's always about other people paying, isn't it? >> do you want to do a bet on 3% in 2019? you can have which ever number works better for you >> it's always about other
people's money with you people that's unbleefblelievable. i'll do 2% which would still be like your best year ever >> 2.5 >> how about 2.3%. >> we'll make it lunch >> bet a little bit on that. dave, let's get your thoughts on what you're expecting for this number, too, ahead of the 8:30 bell ringing >> i'm very optimistic about it. i think it's going to be a good chance it's going to be the 200,000 or higher. but let me give a contrary view on the gdp the decline we saw in january was because the government was shut down. so it was the government section of gdp the private section that will drive productivity was robust. so i'm confident we're going to see continued gdp growth
the trade will determine whether we see an axcceleration in that whether we get a good substantial deal out of china, it could be stronger i'm very much on an optimist side because i think the private is still being influenced by the tax cuts, by the less regulation they're also using the opportunity to increase productivity >> jim, real quickly, how will the market react if it's a hot number or a weak number? >> i think if it's obviously very hot, it will challenge the language of the fed. the fed did pivot in early january. meaning that there's support from the central bank ifs there is an economic weakness starting to spiral. that's what i think are worried they wouldn't move in the fourth quarter language so i think the markets will react weaker and the equities will sell off.
depending on what the number looks like, rate wills react. >> do you really think the fed will react to any of this? >> i don't in the short-term. with regards to -- how is the market going to react in the short-term, if you had a weak number or hot number the fed doesn't need to come out immediately. so the market is going to wait and challenge it >> we are less than 20 minutes away from that number. we will be back with our panel before the release of the number at 8:30 eastern time and coming up, which stock was the better buy at the start of 2019? amazon or etsy check out this chart etsy shares up more than 30% ceo josh silverman is going to join us in just a moment he's wrapping up the first investor day talkintog us exclusively next
ceo josh silverman outlining etsy has been on a tear. outperforming amazon year to date up more than 30% since the start of the year. we should really show that chart from when josh started at the company. joining us right now onset is josh silverman it is great to see you we were talking during the commercial break about why even have an investor day and part of it is i'm sure persuading investors why it will continue to hold onto a stock that's moved the way it has. >> it's an opportunity for us to tell our story and paint the vision we weren't the team that took the company public this is the first time i've had more than 20 minutes to tell what we're building. and so it was really what's the future, what's the opportunity, and how are we going to get there. >> explain this chart. because i want to know whether you ever expected this when you took on this job in terms of how much this stock has moved in literally -- you haven't been on
the job two years now. >> it'll be two years in may thinking of stock prices and something we spent a lot of time on but i will say the mission of etsy is powerful and relevant. and two sided market places are lightning in a bottle. once you've got them, they're valuable >> when you took this job, what did you know that everybody else didn't >> i knew that etsy's mission is more relevant today in a world where automation is changing the work it's got to be av by allowing creative entrepreneurs to take their creative passion >> was it mispriced then or did you do something that nobody understands? >> well, we brought a lot of focus to the business. we're growing twice as fast and with twice the profit margin we were before. >> what do you think it was and i know you heard from investors who i imagine must have come over to you and talked about it.
what do you think it was that sort of -- i don't want to say took any air out of the balloon but to the extent of how people have been thinking about this as a company. >> i don't lose a lot of sleep about the stock moving up or down a couple percent. i'm really excited about what e we -- to grow much faster for at least the next five years. and to do it with expanding profit margins >> can we talk about the competition from amazon and in particular the idea of shipping and being able to get to market literally within hours in terms of getting the product to me. i know custom products are a different story. just even to get the product made but then you get into all the logistics and everything else and how you compete with that. >> yeah. you know, look we are buying lots of commodities all the time every day things that are sort of disposal products like batteries and diapers and socks. and those you just want them to
be fast and be cheap but there's times when you want something that means something those are often things that are made to order. so most things you buy from etsy are made just for you. they're not sitting in a warehouse waiting to ship. and so it makes sense that it takes a little bit more time to arrive but i think customers are perfectly prepared for that. >> today we should say is international women's day. >> yes >> you say that 33% of etsy engineers are female that compares to an industry average of 12% before we talk about the board, i want to understand the engineer piece that didn't happen by accident. >> where do you find them? >> didn't happen by accident we've been focused on building a diverse workforce for many years. first i want to say it makes sense for our business 87% of our sellers are women 80% of our buyers are women. it ought to be a company that is led by many terrific women which our company is
and success breeds success women know that etsy is a place that women can come and succeed and that attracts other fantastic women. >> you're a new yorker i want to read you a tweet that you -- i think this is -- that came out about amazon hq you said it's weird when we start rooting for a high wage employer to go away. what do you think of what happened >> over the median and long-term it's good for new york to have more great tech employers here and -- >> were you okay with them effectively getting a subsidy that you don't have? >> we compete with amazon and on off the playing field. we compete for customers and employees. but i compete with facebook, google, many of the best tech employers. >> google's not getting subsidized to be here. i'm only taking the other side to have fun with it. i thought desperately that amazon should have been here and i thought it was crazy
but i would think that maybe a competitor might have a different view >> i wasn't there in the negotiations i guess what i was trying to say is we're not afraid to compete with them for talent etsy's a great piece to work with with a great culture. ultimately we think having a better tech is good for us >> just talk to us about the expansion and where else you think the etsy brand and business can go. >> first we're a global market place. >> how much of the business is u.s. right now >> about two-thirds of the business is u.s. and about one-third is international and the international piece is growing the fastest. >> if we have this conversation two years, it'll be what or what do you want it to be >> i want the domestic business to grow super fast and the international business to grow super fast i don't see it as a zero sum game where one comes at the
expense of the other but the uk and germany have more than 50% of their trade as local trade. what i want to see a more countries where at least 50% of trade is domestic outside of the u.s. >> okay. what's your favorite product on etsy >> i just bought this fantastic hat that i love. >> a custom hat? >> yeah. it's wool and fuzzy. when you've got no hair like me, it helps to have a warm hat in the winter >> i bought a lot of great scarves on etsy at chryistmas time we have a rare interview with masa son and david faber. he'll join us with a preview in a bit. but first we have the jobs report and final predictions quk oue nus. a cplmite "sawbox" will be right back. the future of technology investing lies beyond the tech sector. it's about technology transforming every sector. ♪ at pgim, our bottom-up approach uses a technology lens to identify long-term winners.
from energy... to real estate... to retail. finding such opportunities for alpha is the true value of active investing. and around the world, you have a partner in that pursuit. pgim: the global investment management businesses of prudential. you should be mad at leaf blowers. [beep] you should be mad your neighbor always wants to hang out. and you should be mad your smart fridge
welcome back to "squawk box. let's check on the futures got about six and a half minutes before the jobs number we are still in the red down less than 140 on the dow the nasdaq down just under 50 and the s&p indicated off about 14 few stocks on the move this morning including costco which is up after reporting quarterly earnings of $2.01 a share. the consensus estimate was just
$1 $1.69 so that was a handy beat they also announced a $1 increase in wages to $15 an hour stock is up by 4.25% this morning. tilray shares is rated underperform in new coverage jaffr jaffray says that stock is off by about 5.3%. when we come back, it is the final countdown. we'll have final predictions and the numbers right after this break. the futures as joe mentioned still under pressure dow futures down by about 135 points "squawk box" back after a quick break.
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let's run through this mary ann, for people just tuning in, what's your estimate >> we're at 210,000. >> do you have a number on unemployment too >> 3.8%. >> what's your number? >> 200,000 and 3. % >> jason, your number again? >> hate to not differentiate much but 195 and 3 37b9 -- 3.9% for unemployment rate. >> dave? >> 200 or 210. >> i'm going to pin you down >> let's go with 200 >> steve, what's your number >> 189 but just the private sector >> okay. private sector only. and rick, let's check in with you. >> 239,000 i won't make a prediction on the
unemployment rate. >> okay. let me just ask. there had been this whisper number out there where people were thinking it could come in weaker than that nobody on the panel thinks it's going going to be weaker is that really a question people are asking on the floor? >> it is they were so surprised obviously by last month's read but also they mentioned adp and the big revision and some of the tweaking there and they just sense that there's a stronger trend on the jobs than many think. so they're putting, i think, more confidence in a number north of 200 than south of 200 >> and steve, any other numbers we should watch particularly closely. >> you've got to watch the number and participation are people continuing to come back into the workforce? it's been an excellent development. they're looking at different demographics the latest information is the millennials aren't working so they're going to school but we want to watch these millennials. >> participation rate, what's
something people are expecting, something that might be a normal one? >> we've been around 63. if we canhold that number and tick up, it'd be great news. >> again, let's take one quick last look on the futures ahead of that. dow futures down by 132 points on a fair value basis before we get into is the. right now, though, let's get down to ylan mui she has the numbers. >> payrolls rose by just 20,000 jobs in february way below expectations the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage points to 3.8% on wages, average hourly earnings spiked 11 cents in february to $27.66 over the years, it's a 3.4% gain the biggest gain since april 2009 almost a decade. now, for revisions, january's blockbuster job growth number, that was revised upward from 304,000 to 311,000 jobs. december's number was also
revised up from 222,000 jobs to 227,000. so that is 12,000 more jobs than had previously been report ed now, february's weak job growth was really driven by two wee key factors. one, the construction sector that industry said 31,000 jobs meanwhile, leisure and hospitality, hiring was flat there. no jobs were added after the sector posted an 89,000 job gain in january now, the data also showed that the decline in the unemployment rate was largely due to the government shutdown. there were about 300,000 fewer unemployed persons in january. that's the result of people going back to work after the shutdown and that's what drove down the unemployment rate. meanwhile, labor force participation, that rate held steady at 63.2%. guys, back to you. >> great
okay let's get some reaction. thanks, ylan and i just wonder whether we can now say the retail number was better than the jobs -- i don't know mary ann bartel is here. jason furman is already tweeting db. >> your lack of confidence in our economy, joe >> if i do lose to you, i'm not sure i can afford your liberal limousine taste at dinner, you and austan >> lunch >> it's end of cycle you always tell me it's the end of cycle, jason. what do you think? >> you know, you don't want to read too much into one number. you want to be looking at this we'll want to be studying the details of this. the unemployment rate remains low. wage growth remains strong you want to average numbers like this over a couple months. this does partly resolve that thing that was puzzling me about
job growth has been outpacing gdp growth maybe they're moving towards each other we are going to be seeing slowing, i would have thought that regardless of what this number was but i wouldn't panic about any one number that we see >> so mary ann, we had four straight days of the market pulling back a little on slowdown worries and the -- we already said good news is now good news. and bad news, maybe it's bad news market's down over 200 now buying opportunity >> we're in the camp this is a buying opportunity the markets had got overbought after rallying almost 20% from the lows of december so i don't think it's a surprise that we're getting a little bit of a pullback in here. i think the wage number is really positive. and since it's international woman's day, one of the things we're starting to see is women are coming back into the workforce. so we view that as a positive.
>> dave mcintosh, comments >> obviously we were all off i'll wager a steak dinner with anybody that that number will be revised upward because i think it's too low >> but by, like, 20,000 or by 100,000? >> let's say 50,000 to 100,000. >> what's the margin oferror, steve? >> plus or minus a hundred there's a lot of stuff in here that gives me question about the number there was a big snowstorm in the month of the survey week you had construction fall off a cliff, down 31,000 you had hospitality go down to zero it's been a source of strength i can tell you in the adp report, the construction was healthy. i'm a little bit not sure what to believe there >> that's a valid point. >> solid revisions to the prior months and then i have a question about how the government shutdown actually affected these numbers.
i did a ridiculous amount of reporting to the point i confused myself. and probably viewers as well along the way. my general takeaway was that the shutdown should not have been in the payroll numbers. and should not have been in the household. i look at the household numbers. i see a big decline of the unemployed somebody on the panel please correct me they showed up last month. they weren't really supposed to be in there. so the fact it went down is not a reversal of the shutdown but my point is you have a huge decline in the u-6 the number we said is the better measure ofslack in the labor market and i don't think i have ever seen a decline this strong which may be a little bit of noise in there but all the things that measure labor slack went down sharply. i am not ready to write off the stronger than expected u.s. job market with this number. sort of picking up on what jason
said but the idea it's coming back in line makes sense to me >> i think i heard rick weighing in on that and agreeing. was my guess on that correct >> yeah. what jumped to me was u-6. that is a huge drop to 7.3%. this harkens back to the retail sales number there's seasonality disruption going on here. there's, you know, harmonic divergence going on in the seasonalties at the begin og in of the year. but that's a wonderful participation rate and what we didn't notice and by the way that's the smallest number since september of 2017 real quickly, housing. man, housing starts with up 18.5%. permits up 1.5%. yeah, what's up? >> i just wanted to tell you the drop in the u-6 is the largest on record. >> a bunch of that is -- seems
to be shutdown related >> it might be >> so what do you think? >> i would say -- >> i think that u-6 number -- is pretty amazing it's down over the last year but it is if you look at employment population rate, that was unchanged from last month because participation was stable so i'm not sure it's a much tighter job market than it was over the last month or two >> jim >> i obviously agree the headline is a weak number but the internals tell a better story. wa wa wages going up is a good part. i would look at this as it doesn't change the trend we had a pretty big pullback and tightening in the fourth quarter. it's not shocking to see the market softness a little bit
we continue to like a higher quality and credit >> what's the rapid update consensus for the full year gdp 2019 >> we don't have a full year we've got the first quarter. >> what do you think the consensus is >> i think it's 2.5%, in that zone >> he's trying to get me -- and furman, can i take you to a nice place or are you going to look like that? >> i'll -- you know, i'll dress up for you, joe. if you want me to dress up, you need like 3% growth. not going to dress up for 2.4% >> you just didn't think this was important enough to wear a tie today? >> he's taking you to olive garden anyway. it's not a tie place >> we leave the number with a i did ldilemma.
and we waited for slowing for two reasons. we expected the jobs number to come back down towards a trend we're waiting to see the economic slowdown down to 1% or is this just a blip from snow and shutdown noise i don't think you can answer that question. >> one thing i'd like to look at the treasuries we were down by an implied 130 points before we got those numbers. i haven't taken a quick look at the 10-year treasury yield just to show if that's had any implication. it is now down at 2.63%. that was lower than earlier this morning. people are thinking there's no way the fed is coming back any time soon. >> i think draghi -- when he did what he did yesterday, everybody who thought they lost a rate hike given how extreme he was in sort
of sort of launching new stimulus and by the way, maybe the fed changed the game for the ecb as well opening the door if that too and i think we're talking abo about -- that might be able to reverse themselves at least partially if we can get a trade deal >> there had been some commentary this morning that there's no date that's been set yet. both sides were anticipating maybe a meeting at the end of this month between xi and trump. this morning the messaging was that we didn't have enough clarity and that neither side was really ready to commit to a date how has that played out and the noise in the markets and what would happen if there was a date set? >> so the way the market is trading, we're starting to anticipate a trade deal. i think what we have to watch is what happens with tariffs. if the tariffs that are on right now hold, that's already priced into the market. but if they lift the tariffs, that's going to be a positive
implication for the markets. but we're looking for a trade deal it seems that there's just a lot of positioning back and forth. when the time is right on both sides, wooe'll get the message it's patience. >> hot potato. you're it. >> all right well, all right. let's continue at least talking about whether, you know, you can do plus 20,000 is that enough to do continued wage gains, liesman? >> i think so. because i think the labor market is tight in and of itself. you've got the 3.8% unemployment rate it's like the number one thing that employers are mentioning. my concern is that you might get into you bring on people even though you really don't need them >> and you don't let them go >> you don't let them go >> what's that about >> that creates a kind of tension when things were to slow down you could have an outsized
reaction you don't like anybody having too much of anything on the shelves. and in this case, pardon me folks, but we talk about labor as a capital -- as a good in that sense it's something worth watching. we like to see wages go up from a federal reserve standpoint and jason, help me on the math here >> you and austan are always betting on the low end of things is it you're rooting for the low end or you're agnostic but are you happy when -- >> that's about as inaccurate as all the statements you've made i'm often on the high end of this panel >> but are you hoping that it just stays like it was during the obama years? is that it >> i'm as happy about anyone about u-6 being low. wages up 3.4% in the last 12 months i think it's exactly as steve said, we have a tight labor market we're seeing higher nominal wage
growth which is the ultimate source growth >> you were often to bet on a beat instead of always a miss. just sort of telegraphs what -- go ahead >> is it right and i've heard the fed say this. take inflation, add it to productivity not something the fed has to fight against so that would be somewhere in that 3.5% to 4% rage wages can rise and it should not excite the fed in that regard. >> that's definitely right as a rule i think it's much more of a puzzle, though, what the underlying trend is right now. been more like 1% for the last decade if you think that's goingto continue, then i think you're a little bit worried about this pace of wage gains if you think productivity will be more at 1.5% then absolutely
this is fully consistent that's why productivity growth is such a big, important question >> you know, guys, let me just jump in here real quick. we're only about a handful of basis points away from new low yields based on a close of 255 and change the only reason i bring it up, i love the conversation. i hope to have a similar one with ed lozier later but they don't care about the averages and the market's been pressured. today could be a big day no matter what you think about revisions or not, i don't like the way the treasuries are trading, the bounce in the preopeni preopening people need to have their helmets ready. >> i think the question really is if you're jay powell and watching this though frankly he's not watching this because i imagine he got the memo last
night. what's more likely to do in 2019 hike or cut? right? >> see, you know, i just don't waste time thinking about what jay powell's going to do and i think investors don't spend nearly as much time as we all do of course it's important jay powell's looking at this thinking, the pause is right and my guess is we can put thoughts in his head but he's realtime and i don't know he's trying to form an opinion about what he may do three, four meetings out which is exactly the type of process we hope you're having. >> you don't think investors this morning are trying to impute what jay powell is or isn't doing? that's how we react to the number every single time >> they really deal with the markets. you know, central banks many times can't tell the truth and when they do tell the truth the irony is they don't know what the truth is how can anybody predicate their
own money? i would never predicate my wallet on making accurate guesses on what a central bank would do you have to look at the markets. the response so data what you see when fed speak comes out, how it moves and try to get in tune with the market >> i agree lot with what rick said i think it's more of a binary thing. the fed is either on or off. either the fed is in play or out of play. >> it'd be nice to get to some point. >> i am always hoping for that for now, the fed's out and i think it's out until at least june i think rick is right to the extent that, you know, now it's time to think about earnings and interest rates and the broader macro economy. but powell's on the sideline here and it's going to take a lot to bring him back n. >> it is like the "60 minutes" interview. we'll still watch it >> i mean, hope springs eternal.
i want the best for our country is all thanks, to one and all still a lot more coming up on "squawk." we're going to get jim cramer's take on the jobs report. and then we'll get david faber on the air because he's got a rare interview with masa son going to get a preview of that as we head to break, check out the futures. we are down. rhtowf 203 pointsig n "squawk" returns in just a moment
welcome back to "squawk box," everyone the government's february jobs report just out. only 20,000 non-farm jobs added to the u.s. economy. that was were added. the unemployment rate did fall, down to 3.8% the futures are reacting negatively to that we had been down by 130 points in the dow futures before that number now it looks like the dow futures are indicated down by 212 points s&p futures indicated down by 22 points and the nasdaq down by 80 the dollar on this news, if you want to take a look, you'll see the dollar index is down just slightly 9732 the euro has come under pressure since yesterday's ecb meeting as well if you look at the ten year note, going to see the yield ticked down on this news, we had been at 2.637% beforehand and now at 2.625%. >> down to the new york stock
exchange we'll talk to jim cramer in a minute david faber is here, the big interview of the morning with softbank's masason >> listen, we spent a lot of time talking about the future of employment, given his views of how machines are going to evolve to have higher intelligence than human beings, perhaps not even that far away. what is that going to mean for work we talked about the focus of the vision fund being on artificial intelligence and as you might imagine, we spoke about that vision fund overall, the $100 billion fund that ma that masa son oversees 40% of it is a preferred equity that returned 7% to its holders. i did ask masa if he worries about ever being able to make that 7% guarantee returned he's
got on 40% of his fund >> i'll return on equity is tremendously good, you know. much better than simple teens. >> of the s&p. you said i believe that you had a 44% irr since 2000 is that accurate >> yeah, something like that, yes. >> you think you can maintain that kind of rate of return? >> so far, so good so far, so good. i'm competing with my own track record so-so far vision fund return is in that range. >> a little tease, we sat down, we talked about a range of different things that we're going to be sharing with you over the course of the day the interview itself will be fully available come around noon on cnbc .com as well
a look at softbank, shares had been up not that long ago when they reported earnings and a big buyback because of what he says is disparity certainly between the asset value of the fund itself, softbank's investments and where the stock is trading but employment a big part of it. you'll want to talk to jim as well about that number this morning too. >> absolutely. david, we're looking forward to that interview, i plan to be watching all of it jim, on the number itself, we're all trying to make sense of it, is it a blip, is it wrong? you think we're going to find out it is going to get revised up 100,000 next month? >> i think there is is so much noise in this number that, look, you never want to say that number is just wrong but i think that there were major sectors of the economy not registering that one theme for all the quarters we have for retailers is that february was a month that people couldn't figure out what to do the weather was bad all over the country. read the costco report, you
realize what an amazing quarter they had, despite the fact they said, listen, hard to gauge what happened in february the shift of the lunar new year was so important for a lot of our retailers. so i'm going to discount it. i'm going to say it was not the beginning of what masa son may want that's my worry, the fourth revolution, is it here i don't see the fourth revolution happening yet a cashierless society, society where people are kind of unimportant. that's not happening yet but i think it could happen in our lifetime. >> he thinks it will he has an optimistic view. i'm not sure you and i share it. >> this is the crux, masa son thinks in the future we're dealing with the past. i think the past is not as bad as what people realize it is why some of us were so adamant that jay powell should rethink his plan now he should be thrilled. he got what he wanted.
>> and -- >> but did investors get what they wanted? you think -- >> no, we're in global route mode last week, i said, listen, bad time, we're going to be in global route mode for a while. global route mode, how many times since 2011 has the chinese brought us down 2016, the europeans brought us down endlessly. that's where we are. i like the idea of a fun and latin america, one of the few areas that is is green chutes for me. >> very important. >> could be $5 billion like they always do, at the vision fund/softbank, two times the venture fund capital out there entirely for latin america. >> i'm not going to get too gloomy i recognize when the market has a global route feel to it and the treasuries are doing what they're doing, step aside and wait for -- >> but then is it a step aside or is it a buy on what might be a -- >> too many -- look, we have global route headlines until the stocks reflect that.
so, no, you -- maybe buy small still sell some. but, no, global route is the theme. get used to it series of headlines saying the trade talks are bad, europe is killing us, japan is killing us, china is killing us. get used to the headlines. if those headlines are acclimated, you buy. >> jim krcramer, thank you, sir >> looking forward to that interview in a little bit. >> we'll see you in a few minutes. coming up, a splash down in the atlantic for a spacex capsule and there is what is coming up thav, more "squawk box" coming up next -driverless cars... -all ground personnel...
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happening moments ago, the spacex crew dragon capsule splashing down in the atlantic ocean. this completes its historic test mission to the international space station. the capsule is designed to carry astronauts to and from space it undocked from the iss just after 2:30 eastern time this morning. >> reminds me of "i dream of genie," right? final check of the markets futures are under quite a bit of pressure again 214 points that's relative. but it has been a down week all
week yesterday, the dow closed down by over 200 points this came after we saw the jobs number coming in much weaker than had been anticipated. 20,000 jobs added for the month of february versus the 180,000 the street was expecting very quickly check out the ten-year note, yield on that also coming down a little bit this morning too, it looks like the fed may be put on hold for longer have a great weekend, everybody. see you next week. right now it is time for "squawk on the street. ♪ all the women >> good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber is back. david's exclusive with masa son. the jobs number 20k is the weakest in the year and a half we got weak china exports, weak german factory orders, europe is red. u.s. ten-year is the lowest