tv Street Signs CNBC April 15, 2019 4:00am-5:00am EDT
>> there are indicators that show us that we are seeing a change in our economy. publicis says there is a $4.4 billion deal for marketing giant epsilon. cnbc exclusively, the arrest of his daughter samay have been politically motivated. >> reporter: if president trump keeps intimidating people, who would risk investing in the u.s. well, good morning, everybody. happy monday happy "street signs. let's start off by talking a little bit about some of the market's action. u.s. equities, very strong day on friday. we had the s&p close above 2900. it is 1% within its all-time
highs again. so everything that was lost back in december almost fully recuperated now. also saw the dow end the session about 1% higher as well. on a good start to the earnings season we have positive results on friday all eyes today will be on citi and goldman sachs will be reporting later as well. so far for the bank's earning season, easy beat for jpmorgan overnight asia, the tone was pretty strong, particularly for japanese equities again. more than 1% firmer. here a bit of optimism about yet again china and the u.s., some messaging from steven mnuchin over the weekend from the sidelines of the imf conference that they are inching closer to a deal and there is a potential resolution in sight. that's one of the things that's been boosting sentiment overnight. stocks, europe 600 not really buying the story trading around somewhat flattish.
european markets are very close to their six-month highs as well good momentum from the u.s. and china. moving on, let's talk about some of the individual breakdown of the indices. ftse 100 is a laggard this morning down about 10 points or a tenth of a percentage point weaker driving a little bit we are getting a bit of a breathing space so when it comes to some of the brexits easter break maybe that's a good thing. for the time being the market is still digesting news there xetra dax is teetering around the flat line. the periphery indices, you have the italian index close to the 22,000 mark having a very strong start to the week up 25% also the spanish index is having a good start to the week as well perhaps taking a little bit of comfort where it doesn't look like there's some sort of conflict between rome and brussels after the latest fiscal
numbers were announced last week those were some of the discussions we had at the imf. for the time being, it looks as though the situation is contained. we are seeing some positivity in peripheries this morning looking at sectors, right at the bottom i mentioned basic resources down 1.5%. some of the minors are trading in the red travel and leisure down. food and beverages down .7 banks up .6 of a percentage point. i'll show you some detail here deals being inked this morning publicis made its biggest acquisition of the u.s. digital marketing company epsilon of $4.4 billion it's boosting media as a whole utilities also up .3 of a
percentage point i mentioned banks and i talked about the strong start to the earnings season for jpmorgan on friday we are seeing lots of green on the board this morning you can see right behind me pretty much all in the green as far as these european banks are concerned with the exception of hsbc generally it is a positive start to the trading session and the trading day across european financials. >> jomana, thank you very much for the market update. huawei's ceo said trump is great but intimidating tactics could scare off investment we're joined from shenzhen you just conducted this exclusive interview with ceo of huawei what more did he have to say about this >> reporter: well, he praised trump. he called him a great president,
as you said. he said that is because he's praised trump tax cuts in particular saying this has helped the u.s. economy, it's helping companies to continue to report good earnings however, he said the benefits could be upset through some of his intimidating tactics that may put off foreign investors. as you mentioned, huawei right in the middle of the u.s./china trade war. huawei has been banned in the u.s. for several years they have alleged that huawei's equipment could be used by the chinese government for espionage. claims that have been repeatedly denied i had a chance to ask the ceo about what he thought of president trump and his tactics. let's listen in to what he had to say >> translator: i would like to comment on president trump without considering his administration's treatment of huawei i would like to express my own
opinions instead of as a huawei representative i would say he is a great president. he is the first president of a democracy to reduce taxes significantly within such a short period of time his tax cuts are helping revitalize enterprises he is a great president but he has shortcomings if president trump continues intimidating other countries and companies and keeps detaining people, who would risk investing in the u.s if no one invests in the u.s., then how could they make up tax revenue. when he reduces taxes, he must be hoping to attract more investment but if investors are scared that they won't get their money back, they won't dare to invest in the u.s. after he reduced taxes he should
have been friendlier to other countries and tried to convince everyone that the u.s. is a great place to invest. if everyone went to invest in the u.s., the u.s. economy would grow dramatically. u.s. doesn't need to conquer the world through violence they have great technologies, skilled labor and economic strength any one of these things could help them conquer the world. they don't need a warship to conquer the world. the cost of using a warship is high if they attack a country, that country will fight back. >> reporter: you said in the past that the u.s. government hasn't seen huawei's technology, hasn't seen huawei's source code would you invite donald trump and his administration to your campus here in shenzhen to let them see the technology that you have to put their fears at rest? >> translator: they are more than welcome to come and visit us in shenzhen.
>> reporter: the u.s. has been very aggressive against huawei they have tried to pressure some ally countries like australia and germany to ban huawei. mobile networks known as 5g. his daughter was arrested in canada in december at the request of the u.s. government so huawei has found itself dragged in almost against its will to the u.s./china trade war. i asked him if he thought huawei was a pawn this was his response. >> translator: if the u.s. thinks we can be used as a pawn, i'd say they probably have the wrong person we cannot help resolve the china/u.s. roots because we don't sell in the u.s. >> reporter: even though he doesn't feel like huawei can be an answer, they think that huawei could be parter of a
u.s./china deal. what's clear is technology it's about 5g, about all of these critical pieces of infrastructure that are going to determine our future technologies over the next ten years. we know the u.s. is very concerned about the power china may wield. mr. wren wasn't taking any of it sitting down he said the u.s. has been great for the company gaining business the reason the u.s. is hitting huawei so much, it's because they're scared >> thank you very much very strong words, indeed. terrific to hear directly from mr. wren on huawei why he says he's interested in selling directly to apple, head to cnbc.com. steven mnuchin says trade
talks with china are reaching a, quote, final round of concluding issues mnuchin told reporters that negotiators will hold more conversations this week and decide if more face-to-face meetings are necessary he hinted at a potential deal to open china to u.s. firms and adding that an agreement will have reinforcement on both sides. >> they are working from a different port the u.s. ran into a strong resistance from beijing. u.s. officials are set to be working on technology transfers and international protection >> the world bank spring meetings, nadia colvenio expressed her concern about the rise in global tensions. >> worse if you call them or the
escalation of trade talks around the world, i'm worried about them more generally. we have seen in recent months no matter in which part of the world this is taking place, it does impact all of us, and in particular europe. the u.s. is the largest trading block in the world it is unavoidable. it has been the case in the last year i'm really convinced that trade, rural space trade, fair trade around the world has brought up unprecedented prosperity around the world and we should be continuing that path protecting the multi-lateral system that has served us so well instead of reaching our attention now that the economy is slowing down. i want to bring in a european equities investor let's pick up about the narrative around u.s./china
trade war. it looks like we are edging towards some form of a resolution is this a good thing or bad thing for europe the reason i ask that is because in some respects it mean that the president can now focus its attentions on europe he tweeted last week that europe is an unfair trading partner perhaps once they come to some sort of agreement with china they'll start focusing their tariffs on a debate. >> on one hand europe is a big exploiting region. that's been speculated for several weeks. it appears we are getting nearer to that. there is a second question, what impaect does that have directly there's been speculation there
we haven't as of yet seen any hard fact. that's something we will monitor closely. >> if you look at the year to date sector performance, some of the best performing sectors are basic resources up more than 25%, even autos are up 24% or so it does tell you that some form of optimism is already priced into these sectors. >> i think so. we need to remember where we came from. many of the sectors bonded up. in europe you've seen earnings momentum improve we're still seeing more downgrades than upgrades >> cyclical sectors is balanced on the health of china do you think that a chinese recovery is already priced into
european equities? >> i think not i think you've seen an improvement and that's probably provided a nice tailwind for european equity in the last couple of months as the pmis in china have nudged above 50 again which many investors did not expect as said, europe is over indexed to many of us, to chinese demand in particular. if you do see that recovery pronounced, particularly in the automotive sectors, that could be a nice tail wind heading into europe. >> if we look at trading, the peripheral companies are strongly outseeing that. how do you think of the distinction there? terms of the best risk/reward? >> we're focusing on underlying companies themselves so for us we have always been slightly overweight.
you tend to find a slightly higher quality profile they tend to be slightly more defensive in structural growth whereas in europe there is more risk developments. >> stay with us. we'll pick up the conversation shortly. european equities portfolio manager. also coming up on the show, president donald trump attacks the fed again. we'll have more details after the break. man: seven more weeks. wow. good news is, we bought a house in time. woman: but...we're a little low on cash after the down payment. man: and the baby room needs new carpet. woman: and a door. ugh, and a window. man: and we still got to patch that mystery hole. woman: and then make it super adorable. man: ridiculously adorable. this is why we sofi. with sofi's no-fee personal loan, borrow up to $100k for home projects.
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welcome back to "street signs. while publicis is buying epsilon for $4.4 billion in a push to expand the digital and u.s. businesses the deal is the french advertising group's biggest ever acquisition. publicis said it would announce a previous share buy back as it announced the first quarter share earnings it said it had a 1.6 like for like decline they expected ad spending to
ease in the second half of the year. elsewhere in corporate news, hydro is trading higher and it petitioned a court to lift embargo rules. the court hasn't announced its decision. and switching to autos motor entities are reportedly looking at daimler for cheating on emissions in more than it thought. daimler says it's cooperating with authorities adding it has nothing to hide. the stock is down 1% in trading. and activist shareholder edward bramson has written another letter to barclays looking for a seat on the board.
bramson is trying to get a seat on the board to push over a strategic overhaul barclays doesn't want to lower the cost there's an interesting dynamic going on there. elsewhere, another company we've been watching quite closely for the last several months, vivendi has had higher revenues the acquisition of the adidas publishing business. the company said it's making progress on the sale of up to 50% stake of umg let's get back to marcus morris from alliance global investors the u.s. is i can ckicking into gear this week what is your sense of how
investors are positioned this results season >> i think it's interesting because actually for the first time in a number of years you've seen investors heavily under weight the market and particularly under weight europe in europe we've seen 13 consecutive numbers, equity outflows it's been quite painful. you've seen many people miss out on that rally. i think positioning here is relatively cautious. actually that provides the up side opportunity if many of these companies are able to post less bad results than the market is fairing. >> it's a valuation play i think back to the imf and all of the talk there was how weak the eurozone is and, you know, essentially they slash their growth forecast. so is multiple expansion going to come from the fact that a lot of these stocks are trading at a cheap valuation rather than there being earnings growth. >> consensus growth stands at
29%. that's down 9% you have asean the severity of those downgrades most people expect economic momentum to improve. importantly for europe, the relative gap between the u.s. and europe is closing. many have been long u.s. and short europe which has been the right call to make if and when we see brexit and we see greater confidence to the region, i think you could see money return and that would support the market. >> if we drill down into the sectors, you have an interesting call on consumer staples you are under weight and reducing your exposure there what's the thesis? >> we've been reducing our budget in the sector the growth in margin dynamics may be changing. consumer staples are having to cater to a new generation of consumers. unlike all generations, are this' not happy with that.
we expect greater personalization and a wider range of channels to shop in so unfortunately for the consumers staples company that adds complexity and actually adds costs because they're forced to cater to different needs. many of these consumer staples are slightly stepping away in order to become more agile to facilitate the growth that they've been lacking the last couple of years. >> how are you thinking about dividend stocks in this environment? again, coming back to the lower growth outflow again, you know, comparing it to the u.s. the u.s., if anything, there's been a lot of commentary about the size of share buy backs that are taking place in 2018 hasn't really been the case in europe is there a value to your team by looking at stocks that have the potential for share buy back or are paying a higher percentage of their cash out and dividends? >> absolutely. in the u.s. you always see higher share buy backs the european market is more of a
dividend play. for us with the long-term investment horizon we take, it's important to understand where that cash is coming from that cash can be financed hopefully internally where we see opportunities for companies to reinvest that cash back into the business, that would always be our preferred solution go they then don't have those opportunities, we would rather that cash is returned to us, either in share buy backs like ili or rather than it sitting e idolly on the balance sheet. >> it's a high growth, high value wags sector. that's led to the binary issue. >> we'll leaf it there thank you very much, marcus. european equities portfolio manager from allianz global
investors. president trump has called the central bank's tightening, quote, a killer and suggesting it should have done the opposite taking to twitter trump claims if the fed had done its job properly the stock would have been up 5,000 to 10,000 points and gdp would have gained well over 4% with almost no inflation. >> i would add that is not technically not what the fed's mandate is ecb president mario draghi expressed concern over the fed's independence he said this hinges on central bank autonomy. >> we have 19 governments we deal with and our independence is enshrined in our constitutional treaty, which is not the case with the other central banks in the world and it couldn't be different if
you think because 19 countries to deal with, you either create something that's truly independent or people would view this as being subject to this country one day and another country another day. so i am not worried about that, but i am certainly worried about central bank independency in other countries, especially as in the most important jurisdiction in the world. >> i was at the press conference as well and asked draghi about the tradeoff between resuming asset purchases and cutting interest rates after the ecb said it was ready to use all available instruments at last week's meeting. >> clearly, the choice in different instruments would depend on different contingencies, so that is the -- we will retain and i will make a point about retaining full optionality. you've seen how the discussion that was taking place about -- until a month ago about the ecb
being short an instrument. it's just faded away after the ec ecb launched it because markets have understood our reaction and the financing conditions we have today is where we want them to be so the negative interest rates anchor the whole yield curve and are fundamental to the purpose so right now the framework we have, which is made of a formal guidance and is made of repurchase of the bonds coming to maturity for an extended period of time past the time when interest rates would be raised, which means that the forward guidance is chained to the horizon over which we would purchase bonds, and here the horizon's lens has not been
determined zblet didn't really give much away there retaining full optionality. >> absolutely. we'll keep our eyes there and look forward to decision time in two months time. coming up on this show, as the u.k. government regroups on brexit, could there be movement on a key sticking point? we'll bring you our exclusive interview with pasquel donnahue next ♪ ♪ applebee's bigger, bolder grill combos. now that's eatin good in the neighborhood.
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tattlebaum. >> and i'm joanna versace. here are your headlines. europe bank index hits the highest level since october on the back of strong earnings from jpmorgan and citigroup and goldman sachs later today. >> an 8 1/2 month high as we're told exclusively he's seeing signs of an economic recovery. >> this shows us that we are
aggressively recovering in our economy. >> he says shares jump as the french advertising giant hits a $4.4 billion deal for the marketing firm epsilon. huawei's ceo tells cnbc exclusively he's willing to deal with apple >> translator: apple is also a great company. it is great in that it has always pushed to make the market bigger, not smaller. we are open to apple in this regard european markets this morning really treading water with the stoxx 600 around a flat line the peripheral stocks are strongly outperforming ftse mib up 3 basis points
the dax and the cac have not moved into positive territory, but as you can see, very marginal gains coming together ftse 100 is down 12 basis points this morning quite a quiet day. quite a quiet week for brexit. this all comes, of course, after last week's big news on the extension to the april 12th deadline let's take a look at fx markets. the euro and the pound both trading higher versus the dollar euro up about 15 basis points versus the dollar. the pound trading up about 18 basis points around the 131 level. this week it seems to be about earnings so far we've got more bank earnings coming through later today and as the week progresses, we'll get more insight into the broader outlook for u.s. stocks. right now it feels as though we're in a wait and see mode.
moving over to the u.k., lidington says cross party brexit talks won't last for months both the government and labor will take a break after the easter break the second brexit extension comes after an agreement for a break. the irish minister said the back stop is an essential part of the overall deal >> we will agree to some kind of a duration in the back stop. that's an insurance policy
you would understand, if you were looking to buy an insurance policy, you would want it good in all areas the back stop between the u.k. and the e.u. in its current form is an essential element of the agreement. >> will you use this extra six months to beef up your deal. >> we have done a lot. from the irish point of view we have the infrastructure we need in place in our two key ports and our airport. we have passed a comprehensive piece of legislation to ensure that we would be able to maintain status quo in the event of a disorderly brexit what we will be doing is continuing to encourage irish companies to get their customs procedures in place to help them cope with a dissort derlly brexit were one to occur by the end of october. >> that was mr. donoughe, the
irish minister he told me they would completely rule out the possibility of putting a time stamp on that back stop. let's bring in collin ellis, the chief credit officer of moody's. thank you for joining us on the show i've got to ask you, you know, news of another six-month extension, how are you thinking about it from a credit perspective? obviously, you know, on one hand you can say it's a positive that we've averted a no deal brexit, but on the flip side there is a lot more uncertainty how it's going to play out. it's not good for the economy. >> it's not. it's absolutely about balancin those two aspects. what i would say is we haven't had any clarity for some time. it's essentially the same. that will continue to weigh on investment spending. that will continue to weigh on growth going forwards, but i do
probably put as much weight on this perspective there have been two opportunities where the e.u. could have forced them out and in both instances, both the e.u. and the u.k. have demonstrated they want to avoid that. that no deal outcome is much more credit negative that would have significant and persistent impact. it would pose credit challenges. so avoiding that is very important. >> let's take a step back. moody's has a stable outlook for the u.k. you can downgrade it in 2017 what drivers are you looking at in thinking about the credit trajectory from here >> when we think about sovereign ratings, we talk about this. one is economic, fiscal,
institutional and so far with brexit, it's the first three that have done most of the work for us the downgrade wasn't just about brexit, it also reflected other factors as well. for example, the long standing productivity views we have seen. typically with brexit, it would mean a worse fiscal position that would weigh on those two factors considerably we're learning about institutional strength it's this concept how easy is it to get things done to avoid credit challenges. our assessment of the inch institutional strength is lower because of the referendum. we've seen that it can be quite difficult for policy makers to agree on some issues >> as jomana noted, you have a stable outlook what would it take for you to turn negative and have that
stable outlook turn into a negative one >> suh at the moment our ratings are based on an assumption that there will be a deal between the u.k. and the e.u. around the terms of brexit. back in march 2016 before the referendum actually took place, we said in an event to leave, we would expect them to eventually agree to a deal. that might be something like a trade deal but it probably didn't include financial services so the deal that's on the table, at least as far as we can glean it given the political declaration, is pretty close to our base case. if we saw something much more negative like a no deal outcome which would have significant negative credit consequences, we would probably acknowledge that and then take the time to try and work out how negative that would be. >> what if they stopped at
brexit is that an up side risk? >> the ultimate would be for brexit not to happen that would be positive from an economic perspective the shift from the deal as it currently stands, that's slightly more positive but it's maybe not that material. >> we'll pick up the conversation shortly collin ellis, chief credit officer from moody's. the ecb is launching the third program as the ims downgrades the 2013 forecast from the block european finance ministers gave their take on the potential risk from the egion. >> the slow down over the last year and that suggests in a few
months of the current year indicators show us that we are recovering in our economy. >> at the same time we have to make sure we do not endanger the economic recovery and economic growth that's what we've been doing we are going down with deficits and debt but at a reasonable path gradually in order to ensure the growth remains robust going forward. >> the responsibility of fiscal discipline, of pushing for reforms, of doing the right thing now that the economy is still relatively okay, that is what governments need to do. that is true for my own, but it is true for the others as well and that is the best way to navigate any future crisis >> is to have an economy that is still growing ahead of 4% is a really strong performance and i'm very confident that we will be able to maintain our growth perform maps in the different kinds of circumstances that
we've been discussing. obviously a very hard brexit would pose a key challenge. while shifting gears to the corporate space, chevron announced it is buying anadarko petroleum. the deal is the energy sector's biggest ever it will see the u.s. oil and gas become the second largest crude producer in the world behind exxon mobil producing 3.9 billion barrels a day. rusal is teaming up with brady industries which is building the largest new aluminum plant in america in four decades rusal will provide aluminum slab metals in kentucky which will produce a low carbon aluminum product. rusal will invest $2 million and will hold a 40% stake.
welcome back to the show well, italy's finance minister has played down any repercussions after rome signed up to be part of china's road initiative in an exclusive interview i also asked him if he sees any issues with the european commission's deal with the italian government. >> i don't see any problem because our agreement was on the debt structure it's considering the economic cycle. >> reporter: you have a 23 billion euro hole that needs to be plugged by october. now the five star movement has
said that they do not want to raise v.a.t. taxes where are you going to fill that hole how are you going to fill it if not by raising v.a.t.? >> we will find a balance of solution of debt the fiscal assistant will continue aggressively. >> reporter: but what do you tell investors that are worried that the 23 billion euro hole might not be filled and we could see further slippage in the deficit? >> i think investor has to see our -- the economic and productive system. we have some go down in the last year that suggests in a few months of the current year indicators show us that we are
progressively recovering in our economy. >> there's some concern from the international cumulative community that the coalition might not last after the european parliamentary elections. what do you tell people who are concerned about the longevity of the coalition? >> this is a coalition government but i will highlight that the consensus of this government is higher than i think the majority of the european governments. >> would you say that italy has a got relationship with europe >> what. >> reporter: does italy have a good relationship with europe? >> yes, of course. we are part of europe. we are a member. we discuss now how to sustain growth at european level
this is the current discussion in europe and also england and the world. if you look at the work we are discussing here. >> reporter: final question, because you're here in washington, italy recently signed an mou with china that's endorsed the gulf road initiative was there any backlash from the you states when you had discussions with them? >> there is no backlash. we have an alliance with the united states and other countries. this doesn't change. this is our position, but we signed the agreement this is our understanding. i think this means that we sign memorandum
memorandum of understanding and we continue the investments in the framework of cooperation. >> let's get the moody's take. collin ellis, vp officer from moody's. collin, one thing that was very apparent in my discussions over the weekend is that as long as the deficit slippage is cyclical because of the weaker economy, then it's growing the acceptable to brussels. did moody's ascribe to the same position >> similar what we try to do is we try to rate it down we try something that isn't as pronounced if we get the ratings right, it doesn't move it as well. indirectly at the moment we have
a stable outlook despite some of the down sides we've seen. we expect the weakness to be relatively short lived >> and yet that gdp is rising. growth numbers are going to be lower. gdp numbers are going to be higher for the next couple of years. surely that's a concern. >> it's definitely something that we look at. it's definitely something we watch. again, if we think that increase in debt is more likely to be at least partly temporary rather than structural in nature, then it's something we can look through and take that longer, broader perspective. >> when you think about the implications of a downgrade to italy should conditions worsen, at this rate how do you think the italian economy is prepared to deal with a downgrade to the sovereign? >> well, we don't expect a downgrade to the sovereign
our ratings paa 3. clearly with the volatility that you saw with financial markets, we did see that feeding into stress for some of the italian banks. not all of those feed through one to one italian government funds are held to maturity some are available for sale basis. you can see the kind of push throughs that way. the italian bond yield, italian benchmark curve is still the benchmark for the curve by and large. >> how closely are moody's looking at the trade discussion between the u.s. and our cop there's concern that the .s. may look to go beyond the tariffs, the airbus tariffs last
week and there are blanket tariffs in the auto sector will that pose a down side risk? >> it will certainly pose a number of risks and potentially for some of the sovereigns at the start of the year we set out six broad themes that we thought would drive the market trade was one of them. we had the u.s. and china dispute that was ongoing we knew that president trump was not happy about some of the trading arrangements with europe between europe and the u.s so a further escalation there would pose down side risks. >> let's say in the hypothetical example, if the u.s. came out and applied a 20% tariff on the german automakers, you would take a look at that? >> we would have to look at all of the ratings on a case-by-case basis. it may be that that would have
more of an impact on smaller businesses. >> colin, we'll leave it there been pressing you for answers on germany. thanks for joining us on the show. one of the big things that investors are going to be watching today are bank earnings goldman sachs and citi bank coming upset to report their first quarter results later today. earnings season kicked off in style for jpmorgan on friday after reported profits rising 5% to over $9 billion keep an eye out for those later on today. and our u.s. colleagues will be speaking to chicago fed president charles evans later on today. tune in for that exclusive interview at 2:30 p.m. cvt. in the sports world tiger woods captured his fifth masters victory finishing at 13 under.
the win marked a culmination of a comeback for woods who's gone through recent health problems and controversies off the golf course woods last won the masters in 2005 and he is now three victories shy of tying jack nicklaus's all-time record of major championship records. >> amazing record there. quite the comeback almost everyone i know who's a golf fan including my hubby was rooting for him. i guess there are a lot of happy golfers out there today. >> the picture a little more 'sieve dow seen up 25 points. s&p up 1% off the all-time high that is it for today's show. i'm joanna versace. >> i'm julianna tattlebaum "worldwide exchange" is coming up it was here.
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good morning it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters here's your five at 5. president trump taking on jerome powell and the federal reserve he said the central bank is standing in the way of huge stock market gains. major bank earnings coming up on tap. goldman sachs and citigroup in just a few hours following wha we got from wells fargo and jpmorgan as well as earnings season unofficially start to heat up. boeing airlines heats up as the 73