tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC April 16, 2019 5:00am-6:01am EDT
>> good morning. it's tuesday it's 5:00 a.m. cnbc global head kwaurs, and here's your five at 5:00 u.s. futures pointing to a rebound on wall street as the clock ticks towards record territory for stocks, and we are just hours away from bank of america's big quarterly numbers after goldman sachs disappointed in the street and shares turned lower. watch those. netflix at least chuck watch your back here first it was apple then it was disney flus. now a new valuation for hulu and disney solidifies its control of the streaming service.
there is drama in d.c. assist to house democrats press the president for his tax return issuing new threats and subpoenas to the irs the president's personal accounting firm, and deutsche bank as well, and the morning after. a massive fire ripping through the century's old notre dame cathedral in paris, france the latest in just a moment. it is tuesday, april 16th, and world wooitd exchange begins right now. good morning welcome to worldwide exchange from wherever you are in the world. i'm dominic chu at global headquarters in for brian sullivan this morning who is live in houston, texas, with a closer look at america's fragile chemical infrastructure. as you can see there, much more in just a moment here. first, a developing story this morning. live images from paris where
firefighters battled a massive blaze monday at the frerj capital's iconic notre dame cathedral. as you can see there, the fire sent ash pouring on to tourists as flames shot out of the roof of the world famous 12th century monument the cathedral is among the most visited landmarks in the world one firefighter was seriously injured. new this morning, some of france's richest citizens have pledged millions to help rebuild the cathedral, including ldmh chairman and ceo bernard arnot and caring group ceo francois. those names, remember, behind brands like gucci and yves st. laurent where, hope in the live pictures of the monument still
standing this morning after many expected and feared the worst. stock futures indicating the dow will open higher by just about 108 points if these futures gains hold into the opening bell the s&p up by about 10 points, and the nasdaq would show a 32 point ga inat the open if these futures gains hold in asia, japan, china, the most of those indexes here, you can see positive throughout at least the major forces in the asian session. the nikkei in japan up by just about one-half of 1% you can see there the hang seng and hong kong up by about one full percent the shanghai composite up by over 2%. the kospi in south korea up by one quarter of 1% as well.
on the european side of things, the german dax there up .75% the ftse 100 in the u.k. up by one-third of 1%. we will get results from bank of america and black rock in the next hour. right here on cnbc this comes a day after citi and goldman sachs earnings reports came out goldman the weaker performer closing down almost 4% on lower than expected revenue numbers. bottom line earnings did, though, beat that was largely on the back of new ceo david solomon cutting compensation costs for his bank's employees a new era at goldman sachs and on wall street for sure. black rock's larry fink will be coming up at 6:30 right here on "squawk box" this morning. a must see interview at cnbc exclusive. stay tuned for that one.
>> what stands out to you in the early stages >> we have a distinct shift here where banks have seen a lot of pressure or net interest margin pressure, which is the main driver of a lot of their top line die to rising deposit costs, combined with a flattening loan yield. in the first quarter it was reporting decent nim numbers, and the commentary is very cautious around that, and that is one of the investors that we've come close to peak earnings from those banks through this part of the cycle >> so peak earnings doesn't sound very good. is there something we should be worrying about we've heard prosecute some concerns echoed because of that flattening yield curve because if would have an effect on bank profit margins some other investors are dispelling some of that saying that banks don't care as much about the flattening yield curve these days in your mund is it still very important for bank profit margins, this idea that higher end yields have to be
significantly higher than lower end yields >> yes, it is important. it depends on the bank however, you know, many of the large banks add a stronger correlation to the shorter end of the yield curve, whereas a lot of the smaller and midcap banks are -- have longer doweration, and therefore, a flatdenning yoeld kurch has a big impact some banks, including wells fargo, have already guided gown on the interest margin primarily due to the flattening yield curve. yes, it does matter. that being said, the overall outlook for rates in general, including the fed, that they could potentially cut by the end of this year, therefore the shordent could go down as well there's definitely a lot of concern in the market about declining nis and more pressure on bank margins.
>> the banksover all have been cut. they continue to generate better operating margins. expenses remain under control. the credit seems okay at this point, although we are seeing increasing amounts of one-off events and one-off increases or at least credit deterioration from some of the banks i feel good about the fundamentals there could be a cycle in the near future. therefore, we are very intently focused on anything -- any deterioration in credit that we have seen. so far we haven't seen it. we haven't seen any trends that indicate that credit deterioration is happening we're intently focused on it in regards to the consumer, the consumer remains very healthy.
debt service coverage row man's very good, and there's a lot of capacity for the consumer to handle the debt load that they had today. we feel very comfortable with the consumer >> thank you with those thouts thoughts we appreciate it >> thank you, dom. >> let's go bah being to brian in houston, texas, taking a deeper dive into the chemical industry brian, it is a big story >> well, it is, dom. about one month ago, in fact, on march 17th, a small fire broke out at an oil terminal around the bend at the port of houston. then it became a big fire. in fact, the biggest fire that any firefighter on boats like this have seen in their professional lifetimes that ended up spilling out dangerous chemicals into the port of houston enclosing the ship channel for three days. there is still a backup. if you think this run of these types of accidents has been more frequent, are you right.
about a week later another fire broke out where we were yesterday in crosby, texas coming up in a few minutes here on worldwide exchange, we're going to talk about all the industrial accidents we have seen, why people think there have been so many recently and why donald trump wants to defund potentially the group that investigates these types of acciden accidents. there are ships still struggling to get in to do commerce because of a leak at an oil terminal with 50-year-old regulations later on today we're going to get a ride on a boat like that it's a big story we're going to kick it off on worldwide exchange because we're first. >> we are first. in business worldwide and everything else. brian sullivan, thank you so much see you later on this hour still to come on the show, the hot ipo market isn't a boon for early investors. it's also been very lucrative for some of the biggest banks behind the deals
our leslie picker is next with those details. then, why netflix needs to worry about more than just disney plus when it comes to viewers plus, forget content subscription revenue is king, and wal-mart wants a piece of the action the right suppliers. then here in logistic, to avoid disruptions! here in sales. even here! i'm talking about ai we can build to work... here, predicting trends. and here, wherever our data lives! and here, working with all our other ai! i think we're done here. expect more from ai. ibm watson.
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>> we begin with news in the streaming space. at&t has sold its nearly 10% stake in hulu back to the company for about 1.4 billion dollars. this deal now values the streaming service at $15 billion. at&t inherited its stake when it bought time warner hulu is now managed by disney that owns 60%, and comcast the parent company of cnbc, which holds 30%. now to the transportation sector shares of jp hunt, they're down this morning almost 2.5% the company citing winter weather, higher pay for truck drivers, and rail line closures for lower volumes in the quarter. now to retail news wal-mart is launching a new subscription service for kids. it's teaming with on-line style service kid box to offer customers what it's called a
curated box at a 50% discount. kid box let's shoppers choose from 120 premium brands. shares of wal-mart not really moving in the early trading. dom, back to you >> frank, thank you for the stocks on the move the big ipo rush is here with levi's and lyft behind us. it's pinterest and zoom and an uber and slack waiting in the wings. leslie picker joins us no you with, of course, the other sector getting a lift from the lyfting business as well leslie >> hey, dom. good morning the tech ipos keep coming and coming, and wall street is seeing green yes, banks can make mega bucks off of these deals taking a fraction of each share sold in the offering as the large u.s. banks report their first quarter earnings this week we thought it would be a good time to see exactly how they're stacking up amid this ipo rush much the league table credit is from lyft which doled out $64
million to jp manageran credit suites, and jeffries, among other banks in fees. this rairjing will likely change over the next few weeks as more deals come down the pike first, we're likely to see goldman sachs move higher, thanks to its role leading pinterest's ipo, and morgan stanley will lead the ipo for zoom, which creates software for video communications that is set to price the same day as pinterest then in early may comes uber that's expected to be the largest tech ipo in years and a boon for the 29 banks on the cover of the prospectus. especially morgan stanley and goldman sachs, which are leading that deal. now, the underwriting fees for mega ipos tendtop to be around 2. 5% on average chrks means the bank on uber's deal alone could generate a quarter of a billion dollar in fees the prospectus also showed a stake in uber during its second round of fundraising back in
2011 and another through convertible notes. four years later morgan stanley affiliates invested in uber in 2015 and 2016. in addition to the underwriting fees, those funds should generate massive returns once uber goes public >> once uber goes public, we saw what happened with lyft when it went public. it was a massive run-up. a big valuation. then all of a sudden it's lost nearly 40% of its value since the highs that we saw on the first day since the ipo down about 21%. how exactly does that play into the discussion about the ipo landscape overall and with, of course, the multitude of banks in the underwriting process for the big ipos coming up >> that's a big question pricing is more of an art than a science, and what lyft did, it's a perfect case study they raised the price range during the process and then
priced at the high end of that range. investors thought that was an effort to capture the last dollar and didn't feel like they were getting as much -- as much of a benefit out of it now, that has already impacted the likes of pinterest it's impacted uber pinterest is coming at a pretty conservative valuation, especially relative to its last private round. uber is said to be looking at a valuation of about $90 billion to $100 billion, and that's down from $120 billion that was initially it was seeking it's clear that what's going on with the aftermarket trading for lyft is already affecting these deals coming down the pike, and it actually impacts the fees for underwriters as well because if you have a situation like lyft where you are not hot trading higher than your ipo price, you're not able to exercise the overallotment option, and that's 15% more stock available to be sold in the offering banks make money off of that just like every other share sold if you are not able to exercise that over allotment, that could
mean lower fees for the banks. >> leslie picker, thank you for thatup on the ipo rush when we come back, the pressure building on president trump to hand over his tax returns. we go live to washington d.c. with the latest. later on, the one number investors need to watch as netflix prepares to open its books for llwa street. worldwide exchange ais back afte this unpredictable crohn's symptoms following you?
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can. >> the nasdaq would open up by about 30 now to our nation's capital. congress may be on easter recess this week, but that does not mean it will be quiet in washington as democrats continue to seek information on president trump's tax returns. this as lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are also gearing up for the release of the mueller report just two days from now. nbc's tracie potts joins us from washington d.c. with the latest. over to you, tracie. >> let's start with the president's tax returns, and the democrats work-around because while they're waiting to see if the irs will give up those returns, they're now approaching other people who did business with president trump to try to get his financial information. >> the democrats have given them six days to turnover -- the
president's legal team says that's illegal >> this administration has no intention to weaponize the irs >> frainkly, the people don't care >> i'm interested in seeing president trump's tax returns. >> while the treasury department decides whether to comply, subpoenas are going out to mr. trump's accounting firm for seven years of financial statements and according to the "new york times", to deutsche bank, which loaned mr. president trump $2 billion >> the american people have a right to know where he is getting his money, to whom he owes money >> thursday morning's release of the mueller report could also offer new insight on the president's business >> it could very well be that there's significant wrongdoing >> i don't care about the mueller report i've been exonerated >> the report found no collusion with russia, but was inconclusive on obstruction of justice. now, that report is expected to be 400 pages long nearly 400 pages the attorney general says that he is going to color-code it with notes so that lawmakers and
the public can get ae sense of what information they took out and, importantly, why. >> is there a feeling that a redacted report with the color coding will be enough to satisfy everybody for that transparency aspect >> oh, no, not at all. democrats are going to continue to push for that full report it probably depends, too, on how much information is redacted the sense is that it's going to be a lot, which is going to give democrats really even more incentive to try to get the full report >> all right, tracie potts, thank you for that update on the mueller report and president trump's taxes. still on deck here, united adding to boeing's problems over its grounded 737 max jets as the president says fix and rebrand the thing. the details next then, a picture perfect landing for space-ex ends in disaster. we explain later on, as earnings season heats up, our next guest says a
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valuation and if that is warranted. >> old, fatigued is, and dangerous. we are live in houston, texas. it is april 16th we're watching worldwide exchange here on cnbc. welcome back thanks for being with us right here on cnbc i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan this morning. let's kick off the second half of the show with a check on the top headlines. nbc's francis riviera in the nbc new york newsro with the latest >> good morning to you we start with investors who believe renovation work may be responsible for the inferno in historic notre dame cathedral in the heart of paris the fire raged for hours devouring the iconic spire firefighters fought to save what they could of the 850-year-old cathedral, but two-thirds of the roof was ravaged
it took crews nine hours to douse the flames it's a devastating start to holy week for the capitol hill church, but french president emmanuel macron is vowing to rebuild. a new jersey utility worker is luggy to be alive a live electrical wire fell near his feet and struck the wet ground, immediately sparking and shooting flames into the air the man had been working to get a fallen wire off a light pole after it came down during a storm. mobile internet is already empowering cows. it is part of a government-funded tech project in the u.k. that outfitted 50 of those cows with 5g connected smart collars. it monitors if they can be tracked across large distances at super fast speeds >> those cows that aren't ending up as steaks >> what do you think the next
animal will be at 5g >> not turtles or anything like that maybe birds or chickens. a whole dinner >> yeah. >> we can. >> out to frank holland >> here's what's leading cnbc.kol right now we begin with big news in streaming a & has sold its 9 periods stake in hulu for 1.43 billion dollars. that would give the company a valuation of $15 billion it's really a huge jump from november when disney valued hulu at 9.3 bell yon dollars. that now leaves disney and parent company comcast as the owners of hulu shares of walt disney up half a% shares of comcast down a quarter of a percent more bad news for boeing it will extend cancellation of boeing's 737 max jets through early july united had previously canceled 73 p max flights through june 5th where, this move follows
similar cancellations by southwest and americans. both companies shares up slightly this morning. now back to streaming. netflix is set to report quarterly earnings after the closing bell today shares of netflix have been down since friday following competition concerns after disney announced i said own streaming service. netflix rebounding slightly in the premarket trade. shares up more than three-quarters of a percent. thank you so much for those headlines. here's how your money and investments look right now raz we're halfway through the 5:00 a.m. hour in new york. stock futures pointing to a higher open. the dow would open 100 points if the -- the s&p 500 by about nine points to the up side, and the nasdaq up by 29 points as well.
>> the first is that despite all the doom and zoom coming into earnings about interest rates and the yield curve, net interest income and net interest margins have performed fine in the first quarter, and own though wells fargo cut their full year guidance, jp morgan, citi, and pnc did not. the capital markets performance is also fine albeit off low expectations. m&a has been strong. debt and equity issuance has been weak. goldman stacks had stock-specific difficulties that appeared in investment manage management and ep vesting and lending. it's worth keeping in mind that four of the big six banks are,
in fact, trading higher over the last two trading sessions sirns the first banks started reporting. markets expected to avoid the stock-specific issues of wells fargo and goldman sachs that don't really capture the group's performance overall so far >> will fred, this is very early in the earnings season even for the banks at this stage. one of the things i thought the most interesting i guess to me was the goldman compensation is this something we could see trend sng. >> it hasn't played out so much in the others. it will be interesting to watch morgan stanley, and if this is an investment banking forecast one is structural. they are reducing head count in
trading. they're making some changes there. it is getting more electronic. that's something that's been happening anyway i think it was also a cyclical performance. they didn't nail it, and they have adjusted things accordingly. it played into the fact that they traded off so heavily the eps was a significant beat but the compensation isn't always a fact tor deliver -- southeast citi had a beat yesterday, but there was a tax rate lower than expected if we look at friday, jp morgan and pnc's eps we're receiving seen as more solid and repeatable arnz gibbs, portfolio at s&p global market intelligence lindsey bell at cfra refrp into this discussion as well. ladies, thank you very much for joining us here. we have balanced out our table now at this point. a big discussion here. earnings season is very much getting into full swing, and
lindsey, perhaps we'll start with you how are the general themes shaping up now that financials make up the bulk of this early reporting season >> we think the financial says set a positive tone for the market for the rest of q-1 earnings season. even though the results have been mixed, they confirmed what we hadexpected that numbers have been cut just way too sharply going into the earnings period >> you know, aaron, it's interesting. lindsey has been with us a number of times over the past few months i remembered having this conversation at the end of kind of december, early january we talked about how the expectations have come down so much just since october for this earnings season. is this going to be a good thing because the bar is so low? it's easy to get over? >> it's potential. the one thing that's concerning is that revisions haven't stopped. we keep seeing downward
divisions, and we haven't seen that catalyst. we're still very early in the earnings season. the fact that we keep seeing not only this quarter, but the entire year's earnings being revised down, and some of the earnings are being pushed into fourth quarter, but you just haven't seen that bottoming of earnings revisions where you see stabilization. yeah, financials beating earnings in the first quarter is good, but i'm looking at the broader general market, and i would like to see where we could at least stabilize our earnings expectations from this year and not just wait for all the positive news to come in 2020. >> you like to see financials play a role in the market because they are a large portion of the s&p 500 they're also a great sign of the consumer and business sentiment, and the consumer is really strong i think you've seen some of the
bank earnings, the consumer businesses doing well. i think you'll hear more about that today from bank of america. the other component of the business is really that corporate side where commercial loans haven't picked up yesterday. we new ed to see that corporate ceos are still a little bit, you know, holding off on that investment >> lindsey brings up a good point on the consumer. wells fargo, jp morgan, citigroup, bank of america, but it's the regional banks that may give us a better view about what that consumer health is in the u.s. what exactly would you be looking for then in those regional banks who have yet really to report in earnings >> well, we have heard from pnc, and, of course, we've heard from the chase aspect of jp morgan and bank of america will be able to give us that insight as well. i do agree, and it's a really important point, and, again, i go back to the theme so far. if you do consider wells farg wroe is the one-off in that space, then the picture from jp morgan pnc and citi's u.s. retail business has been pretty good so far. credit quality still pretty
good loan growth has been sort of fine, and it's kind of been broad-based on that kind of aspect of the u.s. economy bank of america judging by what brian moynihan told me a couple of weeks ago when i interviewed him, i think they could do pretty well, again, on that front. little a similar setup, low expectations we've beaten the expectations, but it still didn't lead to share price outperformance because investors, for whatever reason, late in the cycle need to see blow-out beats for them to turn the corner on their sentiment towards banks. we haven't seen though where's zbloosh wolf brings up an interesting point. the u.s. does look good as far as everybody else. does that mean that this is a good time to be invest and putting money into the market? >> it certainly -- we're concerned that valuations are getting a little rich for the u.s. large caps. when you look at its relative attractiveness, yes, it is definitely your safest bet
specifically with banks, the banks were the darling at the beginning of last year and the beginning of the year before they still disappointed and underperformed in broader market, and we might see that again this year. that would say the focus on the consumer focus stocks, like your citi, wells fargos, those might be the ones that have a better dha chance of outperforming. >> the last one to you, lindsey. >> i would add to that when you think about the banks, the reason we saw weakness was the top line weakness, and what you need to see from the banks is net interest income increasing in a rate environment where the fed is turning dovish, not going to get very many more interest rate hikes, that's much more difficult. it's got to come from loan growth and investment banking fees >> lindsey bell, aaron gibbs, and wil it ford cross a >> in the past month there have been two major accidents in the houston area with chemical facilities one was a fire where a man died and two others were seriously
injured. almost nobody talks about the chemical infrastructure, the infrastructure for the industrial fluids and capacities that run this country. we have learned the hard way in the last 30 days before what the toll is when they break. yesterday we're out in crosby, texas, where there was a deadly fire a man lost his life. a month ago there was a fire at a storage facility here on the ship channel of houston that burned it caused a leak, and we saw a complete closure of that ship channel for three days in fact, there are still a
backlog of ships that is waiting to get in. if you think that -- if you are kind of thinking in the back of your head, well, there seems to be more industrial accidents recently than in the past, you're right we can go back from the fertilizer explosion in west texas. you had elk river and other storage tank, 300,000 people without drinking water a couple here obviously in texas, and there are many more what do they have in common, guys well, number one, much of this enfrom a structure is extremely old. 50 plus years. as are the safety regulations. hurricane harvey, only a year and a half ago, but it seems that the memories are short. nothing has changed. did you know, dom, that there have been no major changes to the regulatory scheme in the wake of hurricane harvey i guess people just assume we're not going to get a storm of that size again, and here's the thing. the agency that investigates many of these accidents called the csb chemical safety board
morale is low. investigators have quit. in fact, they have open jobs for chemical investigators. >> do you like flying on airplanes? >> i do because it's the most sufficient way to go across long distances, brian >> 60% of all aviation fuel is manufactured here. these probably costing hundreds of millions if not billions in additional ticket costs and jet fuel costs because of a storage leak of a 50-year-old attorney general natural. those are the back end costs nobody talks about
that is the infrastructure crisis nobody but cnbc is talking about, and we are here at the port of houston all day >> and, of course, brian, one other point. i was on with you on this set when you were here talking to us about the chemical spill and what it did to the houston ship channel because, of course, tankers come in and out of there with raw file for refineries >> have you all these ships that come in here every day well, they still have a backlog. they had over 100 ships sitting off the port off the coast of galveston waiting to come in when they finally came in, it was one lane open for a while. they had to tow them in. they didn't run the engines. then many of them as they were leaving literally, like, taking your car to the car wash, had to be hosed off to get the chemicals that were in the water off the sides of the ships so they wouldn't drag it out into
the gulf of mexico >> there was a fire in 2009 in puerto rico at a similar facility if we had a fire of that size here you would have 100,000 people in the neighborhood be evacuated. zwret fuel and commerce. by the way, it affects lives >> all right, brian sullivan a big story out in houston, texas. we'll be watching all day here on cnbc with your coverage of that chemical industry zblierks coming up on the show, why he elan musk is short one rocket booster this morning. we'll tell you that story. then david fiber, live today from the active passive summit right here in new york city. some of the biggest names in investing, including jeff often, uaalte worldwide exchange is back in a couple of minutes.
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missions >> moving on to a story that is near and dear to the hearts of people starbucks is relaunching its loyalty program today. the new program will allow participants to earn rewards more quickly and redeem those points for freebies a whole lot sooner rewards will include things like free expresso or flavor shots. everybody loves coffee that works this hour. does aespecially this time of the morning. no doubt about it. >> rewards program reports for 40% of all transactions. it's popular moving on, there's a new king of youtube this morning, or more accurately seven kings and one queen. bts teamed up with hallsey for their newest music video boy with love. it's just smashing youtube records. it's the most viewed music video debut in u.s. history. 57 million views in its first 24 hours and 100 million views in less than fwo dato dwaays. >> maybe i should check it out
just to see what all the fuss is about. >> good business decision by her. she's now the khalisi of k-pop >> stick around, frank in the sports world duke superstar zion williamson has officially declared for the nba draft. in addition, to the bonus he will get as the presumptivetive number one pick, he has a lot of sneaker money coming his way industry experts expect the bidding war for williamson's endorsement to be the biggest ever for a rookie putting him on par with lebron james and kevin durant who got 87 million and 60 million dollars respectively from nike. zion, a huge part of this story and, of course, the sneaker blow-out earlier this season certainly weighing there still in the nfl russell wilson is making history with his new contract deal, the kwa he tweeted about his new extension with the seahawks early this morning according to espn, that new deal
is worth, get this, $140 million over four years and includes a $65 million signing bonus, making him the highest paid player in the nfl topping packers quarterback aaron rodgers. is he worth it >> one more time, cha-ching. he is a super bowl winner. he is a good-looking guy, which actually helps you out adds a quarterback because you're the face of the franchise. both on the field and in real life not to mention, the fact that this guy has carried the franchise. totally worth the money. >> there was a point at which he was maybe rumored to be going elsewhere. >> possibly the new york giants. >> would you liked to have seen him as a new york giant? >> i think he would be a great fit for new york again, he is a good-looking guy, charismatic. he is a leader on the field and in the community he has a famous wife ciara where. >> i think he would have been a great fit. he is worth every dollar you and i were disagreeing you cannot find a better
quarterback than him on the market and the draft is always speculation. >> appreciate that >> coming up on the show, ka the rally last, but the stocks a percentage or two away from all-time highs is it time to take profits our next guest remains bullish, and then in just about half hour, black rock chairman and ceo larry fink and his thoughts on the market cycle and the owg ob eno aslinglalcomyll coming up next.
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>> good morning, worldwide exchange i would say this, bull markets don't eye of old age bull markets die for fundamental reasons. i think what we've learned so far from this very early earnings season is the stock market is a market of stocks we've seen it in the bank earnings i know you spent a lot of time on it already this morning this is specifically why you want to buy and own stocks and build portfolios of stocks and not just rely on etfs. if you would just be buying the bank etf, you would be changing your performance dramatically right now. we continue to believe the bull market is very much alive. if you remember, we've been a bull market believer since 2009, and we came out with our big call 20 to 25 years, and last year does not change ma. we needed a bit of a refresh, and that's exactly what we got
snoo from your standpoint, where should investors be allocating money to favor or overweight >> it's a great question here's what we would say we were overkwaet clearly lots of political rhetoric. >> it was the best last year, to be fair? that's exactly right had you investors flock into health care at the end of the year principally pli because of defensive measures, dividend, stability. a lot of, of course, volatility in the overall market. we think that's the best student. especially the second half of the year given we do not believe that the president of the administration is really going to go after health care. we think we have to get the china deal done and there's an infrastructure bill coming
overall just keeping going the economy is more of a presence relative to just getting health care >> is it fed or other central banks? are there macroor microconcerns? i think our call is for no earnings recession we don't think that's going to happen it's the goldilocks and three bears. the three bears would be the fed, china, and earnings i think if you want to add a fourth, it's sentiment sentiment remains negative people are not a believer in this market. >> really, though, with stocks at record highs? >> well, don't be confused by that if you actually talk to clients like we do around the world, they're bitter they miss the move they have been chasing stocks here to add to their portfolio just because they need to perform, but they're not believers. the theme since 2009 remains very much intact climbing a wall of worry this is the most hated bull market
people sht doing fundamental analysis they're chasing stocks they're focussing too much on macrovariables and not fundamentals we think an active stock picking theme is the one to believe in >> what's your target right now? >> 3,000 >> that's a 3,000 target what is the tail risk down side move what exactly would be that thing that maybe takes this market down >> it's some sort of an event. especially on the geopolitical side you can't manage portfolios for this type of thing that's why you want to be in high quality stocks and good dividend growth remains one of our primary sources. especially given the nakt people need income in their portfolios with bonds doing what they're doing. we believe that we could see a bit of a softening over the next month or two we're starting to hear selling may go away with time now, and i think the summer could be bumpy, the fall and the end of the year will be a really good period for stocks >> brian, thank you so much. >> thank you >> always great to have you here that's it for us this morning. markets pointing to a higher
streams wars at&t off loading its stake in hulu leaving disney and comcast as the last big stake holders. would what it could mean for netflix. busy day once again for earnings dow components, united health, and johnson & johnson are set to report this hour unh already out. larry fink will join us for an extended interview you can only see right here it's tuesday, april 16th, 2019 "squawk box" begins right now.
good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on c nshs live at the nasdaq market site in times square it never gets old hearing al michaels say that. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with joe kernan. melissa lee is with us becky quick is off today take a look at the u.s. equity futures. the dow will open up 29 points higher nasdaq look to open up 29, 30 points higher right now. the s&p 500 up close to nine points while most of us have been asleep it is a green picture across the board with shanghai composite moving the most. up over it%. looking at the hang seng up over 1% right now european