tv Fast Money Halftime Report CNBC August 1, 2019 12:00pm-1:00pm EDT
program. >> that's byron wien we'll have to start bracing for the jobs number tomorrow if the ism employment component means anything, it will be tough to see growth in manufacturing jobs tomorrow. estimates around 140 it's time for the judge. let's get to the half. >> carl, thank you very much i'm scott wapner front and center, the day after what jerome powell's message to the markets means to your money and the record setting rally it's 12:00 noon, this is the halftime report. the rate cut is out of the way. what's the setup for stocks now? your second half adjustment is straight ahead wall street now looking to september. will the fed cut again why investors may need to rein in expectations. restoration hardware rallying on a double upgrade what's driving the call? and what it's signaling about the consumer. >> the investment committee is
ready to go. the halftime report starts right now. welcome. good to have you with us on this thursday our investment ranov terranova, steve weiss, peter najarian, liz young is back. let's begin with the market. stocks coming off the worst day in two months, some because of those two words jay powell said on wednesday, midcycle adjustment words that cast doubt that the fed was going to embark on a series of rate cuts. liz, what do you make of this? down 300, up 300 did powell confuse us? was the market over its skis >> i think powell is taking some criticism that is a little unwarranted. we don't see a rate cutting cycle that's necessary here. i don't think he'll embark on one. let's not make it a self-fulfilling prophecy what happened yesterday was an adjustment in indexes, some of
that algorithmic trading >> so no cycle liz says won't be a cycle. lee cooperman told us yesterday, not going to be a cycle what does that mean for where stocks go into the fall i thought the idea would be there would be a cycle and you buy stocks so what now? >> i think we're still part of the cycle because they cut rates. what concerns me most about the market is if powell continues to miscommunicate or communicate poorly >> you think that's what he did? >> i think that's what he did yesterday, what he did in december, and what he did in his testimony to congress last month. sort of got to get on the page of look, we won't tell you how the sausage is made. we won't tell you our every thought. we won't box ourselves into a corner and let the market take it to the next level so we have to do what we necessarily didn't want to do so he's got to temper the market
expectations of another rate cut, i think very few people think the market needed this one, but he had to do once he said he would. move on to the other risks to me the risk is the market goes up, still goes higher, maybe another 5%, 10% higher >> even if there's not another cut. >> yeah. >> you think the market can go up without another cut >> without a doubt i wasn't looking for the 25 bips, i'm glad we got it it helped the market, but the market doesn't need it the market needs to see a u.s. economy continuing to do well what it doesn't need to see are the democrats, whoever they are, their agenda make this is a horse race for the election. they're anti-business, they're an anti-capitalist, and that would be a great fear. >> pete, give me the scoop, can stocks go up without another rate cut or two? >> yes they absolutely can. i think part of what we heard yesterday through the testimony -- i think you're right -- when we got that cut
the market was fine. the second powell started to communicate what he was talking about, the why, all the rest of it, that's when we started to sell off we were much lower we were down plus 400 points before rallying back to finish 330. we made back a lot to of that today. it shows you the resiliency of what we're looking at in this market all the names that led us to the down side, those are the same names today leading us back to the upside >> is it resiliency or point of confusion? market doesn't know what to make of what powell said. >> that's probably accurate. they don't know what to make out of it. so they went back to some of the quality names out there. the quality names are the ones leading us, and that's where people are buying now. >> joe terranova, you buying stocks today >> i haven't sold anything bought stocks -- >> you feel fine where stocks are? >> hold that thought i have breaking news let's go down to d.c ylan mui has some news on the budget deal.
what do you have >> the senate has the votes to pass a deal that would raise the debt ceiling through july 2021 and increase the caps on federal spending by 3$320 billion over the next two years that vote is still ongoing but right now the tally appears to be 62 yeas, 27 nays, after the senate passes this bill it would go to president trump for his signature. he has indicated he will sign it that would remove any doubt on the part of the markets that the treasury department would run out of cash or be unable to fulfill its debt obligations so right now the senate has the votes to pass that budget deal back over to you >> good stuff, elan, thank you back to our conversation algos take you down. algos take you up. the dust settles you tell me what kind of market you have >> the same one you had before chairman powell announced a 25 basis point cut. >> good enough fundamentals to take you higher or not >> absolutely. earnings are exceeding
expectations on top of what we got in 2018 to get positive growth listen, 7 1/2 months ago do you think chairman powell thought that he would be where he was yesterday talking about cutting rates and ending the balance sheet runoff absolutely not there's no one that believed that's where we would be 6 1/2 months from now. how could we have any degree of confidence that his two words yesterday are not going to be pluralized in the next three to six months >> he tried to walk it back a little bit i didn't mean there's not -- this is the only cut >> midcycle adjustment could easily become midcycle adjustments. >> he doesn't know about the trait. >> nobody knows. we know earnings are strong. the u.s. is strong the consumer is strong >> which he said >> we know we now have unfavorable fiscal policy that's impacting the domestic manufacturing and global growth. that's not going away. >> shannon, tell me, what is an
investor to do as you sit here on this investment committee >> i think what we're doing and what i think investors should do is continue to think about what we're looking at in the second half of next year. and the fact that to joe's point, the economy is strong enough right now even if we print a sub 2% gdp print in the second half of the year, where is the alternative for you as an investor in the second half of the year? where do you feel most confident? it's not in the bond market. you're not getting paid. you're not getting paid to go out further than 2 1/2 years on the yield curve. valuations are attractive, we'll talk about that later hopefully, but i think from an investment perspective that quality bias we're seeing in the names being bought up today, that will continue to be consistent. in a slow growth environment which is what we're facing the back half of the year, you want to own quality companies that have a competitive advantage >> earnings good enough, liz, to take the market higher
>> i want to go back to a point joe made i don't know this is the same market we had before the cut before the cut the market was up 20% because we were expecting cuts we were expecting a lot of support from the fed now the market has to transition i agree we can still go up from here i don't think we'll see another 20% for the rest of the year we can still grind higher, maybe 5% is reasonable we need to do it on the back of something else earnings are mixed i don't know they're strong. average earnings growth is -- >> better than thought >> but i think we expect that. we expect us to always be better than we estimated. that doesn't really garner reaction anymore average earnings growth is 6% to 6.25%. we're expecting full-year 2019 to be 2.6% that's below average i wouldn't say there's a strong momentum in earnings to drive us through. we are expecting the back half of the year to be stronger than the first half that's positive. we need the market to pay more attention to economic
fundamentals, not so much to monetary policy. >> joe, liz makes good points. the market ran up on anticipation of, you got to believe, more than 25 basis points of a cut. if it's not going to get the full, at least three -- the market priced in three -- what do you have? what's the justification for stocks being where they are? if they got here on thepremise of three cuts, if you're only getting one cut, don't we need to rethink where we are? >> that's making the assumption that we got here on the prem me ise of three cuts alone. we got the pivot in january, the communication from the chairman. that'sversed where we were, the negativity in december the last 30 days or so, i don't see the anticipation of three cuts why stocks are rallying
i see it as earnings from starbucks, earnings from apple, earnings that are telling a story that is not as apocalyptic as what i heard six months ago >> i would say that -- first of all, we never know why the market is where it is. we can all make these conjectures. everybody can point to different facts and charts >> you have to believe the fed anticipation played a huge role. do believe you have to pay attention to monetary policy we saw that in december and january. for me it's the fact that the fed is not embarking on a rate tightening cycle rates are historically low i don't think anybody invested in the market a year ago because they perceived the fed could go three times. so they kept going in. true the market is relatively flat >> the fed is addicted to cheap money. >> everyone is >> the more it gets, the more it likes it whether you need it or not -- >> we have cheap money rates have been historically low for a long period of time.
nobody is talking about a lack of capital or available funds. they're there. what would damage the market is not if the fed doesn't cut -- if we got three cuts right now, say 75 bips, the market would trade up a bit and then down because there's no more to come. i think the fact that we have not done everything and that we're not tightening is enough to keep the market going that's what kills markets, tightening >> let's entertain the question, is the market reading jerome powell's message correctly let's ask former dallas fed president richard fisher who joins us from colorado springs good to see you again. >> how do you like the background >> love it i'm sure you're loving it out there as well. >> about to go on a golf course but i'm here talking to you. >> appreciate that you tell me, down 300, up 300, did your friend jay powell mess this up yesterday in the message? former philly president plosser said he muddled his message.
what do you say? >> i always think having sat at that table for ten years, i always think of mickey mantle's great quote when he finished playing baseball, went up to the broadcast booth, saying i didn't realize how easy it was to play the game until i got into the broadcast booth. unless you've been a participant -- charlie plosser was, i was, i think we're too harshly critical here. we're trying to parse every word and gesture. the economy is doing fine as was just mentioned the fed is not driving the yield curve here look how rates have come down even after pairing off the balance sheet. if you look at the ten-year, it's below 2% today. why do you think that is it's because we're in an attractive place to be these rates are attractive to underpin equity markets. and the short-term rate cut, i think they just gave back what they imposed in december i would have probably dissented.
i would have sided with eric rosengren of boston and kansas city and i think it shows a couple things it was important that we had two dissents there's no true consensus now, or at least the majority opinion is there, but not all in on where the economy is those two are very good thought leaders, particularly rosengren is one very good thought leader that the committee has had and will continue to be. and there's another aspect to the benefit of their having to dissented which sends a signal to the president of the united states, this is an independent body he has no control over the bank presidents, he doesn't nominate them, the senate doesn't confirm them, they're independent thinkers one thing i find interesting -- it wasn't long ago on this show we were talking about 50 basis points now it's like they have amnesia on those points. the second is because other
central banks are ratcheting down, more negative interest rate policy making, what i consider puric self defeating monetary policy that the fed should follow. i'm reminded, whenever i hear that, every time i try to do something stoupid that my brothr bobby did when we were little boys f bob yu puts hby puts his the toaster, would you the answer is no there's no reason the fed should keep cutting like the ecb or japan. i'm not critical of powell here. he may have muddled the message. one of the problems is they're doing a press conference after every single meeting >> his choice. >> that's a tough thing to do time after time after time mario draghi was exceptionally good at it, explaining terrible monetary policy. let's give powell a break here the 300 up and 300 down just
indicates to me what are markets? they're manic-depressive mechanisms i operated a hedge fund that did well for ten years, we knew there would always be trading opportunities. >> but communication is a key part of what jay powell does >> i didn't think he did that badly yesterday. i really didn't. >> yesterday is not only example i was going to use what happened in december? you used mickey mantle as your thing. some people are taking what he has done recently like yogi berra, when you go to the fork, take it. what does that mean? >> look, it's so easy to criticize the central bank, particularly people that have never been a central banker. cut him some slack the point is it's policy policy is geared towards the real economy not financial markets. we all like to think they'll do what we market operators or what you market operators want,
that's not the way it works. it's to get the real economy correct. not to have inflation or deflation keep employment at the maximum or optimal level that's the purpose of the federal reserve and the central bank one point made earlier by your panel is a good one. the economy continues to do well the markets will do well >> powell said yesterday that the economy is doing well. that's not even why they made their move it's more of an insurance thing. you tell me, you say it's about the policy what is midcycle adjustment? what does that mean to you >> i actually think it's an encouraging statement. if we're midcycle, we have further upside to growth it may not be as robust as it has been it means we're -- i don't necessarily agree with this -- in the middle of an economic cycle. i think we're closer to the end of a cycle but not on the eve of recession. that's what midcycle means
i thought it was an encouraging sign we have further run rate on economic growth. look at personal spending in june, it was up 4.1% consumption drives our economy look at these rate -- i can't think of a single business, maybe the panel can, small, large, public, private that feels they're under financial duress and markets are not helping them and that credit is not available. can't think of one >> how many cuts do you think will happen? even steve liesman has been saying has part of the communication issue with the fed is that they did nothing on multiple opportunities that they had to walk the market back from the idea that there's going to be three cuts. nothing. on numerous occasions, whether it was interviews with steve, the fed chair himself, in speeches what's up with that? >> i don't know. you all had a good interview with eric rosengren about two
years ago. you have to think about who is at table and who votes he was articulate on this, it wasn't required or necessary that was his view. if you look at who is a thought leader at that table, he's one of the grade thought leadeat th. you have to play according to the real economy we had moments where we had economic weakness appear to be the case yet we have aroar back on personal spending here the unemployment claims are not that great we still have full employment in every category so i -- here's what i worry about. with all due respect to the great market operators at the table, they hear what they want to hear, not what's being said the market is so hooked on cheap money that they want to hear it will continue to stay that way or get cheaper i would suggest that the yield curve is not being driven by the
fed. it's not being driven more than one year out by the fed, rates keep going down. who is doing that? investors that find the rest of the world to be enormously unattractive and the u.s. to be very attractive in terms of nominal yields money is flowing in here that's good for us and our economy. >> let me ask you plainly, did jerome powell make a mistake yesterday by cutting rates it sounds to me you're having trouble coming to grips with the idea of an insurance cut >> no. i would have voted against it. i'm not at table anymore i think the economy is fine and it wasn't a mistake. it wasn't as much as people had hoped and prayed for also it did not indicate that it may not be just one and done there's very few coins in the fed's purse right now. i would be very, very careful to spend out of that sparse little purse of only maybe eight more cuts possible or seven
i wouldn't spend those coins unless i could see the potential of a recession >> he's obviously worried somewhat about trade policy and tariffs. >> good point. >> do you think he needs to go more out of his way to say it? he's taken all this blistering criticism from the president why doesn't he just come out and say, you know what everything is great, we don't need to cut the rates, but we'll do it because of the president's trade policy has business concerned, it's showing up in some of the numbers. maybe not the ones we generally look at traditionally but we're concerned. why doesn't he come out and explicitly say it? >> i wish he would say the following, even if we cut rates 100 basis points it wouldn't quell the concerns about supply chains, all the turbulence that comes from a protectionist trade policy when you think about it, monetary policy has no way to offset the angst that is in the
manufacturing and distribution community and the supply chain community. i would just make that clear we cannot do anything to offset these trade policies being pursued by our country >> you have to believe he wants to say it. >> it wouldn't make a bit of difference if they cut 50, 57 or 100. you still would have concerns about supply chains, where to locate ro tuck shproduction fac. i was a trade representative for four years, i saturday at the fomc for ten years -- >> one more strike and you're out. >> yeah. but there's no way monetary policy can offset the concerns these trade initiatives have raised in the business community. it doesn't equate. i would say that, but i'm not jerome powell. i respect his unique role that he has to play and the way he has to guide himself through all the land mines in washington,
d.c. >> being he doesn't want to necessarily reciprocate and join this fight that the president seemsinitiating with him. that's what you're saying. >> yeah. again, i think he's very careful about saying that, you know, he's not getting involved with fiscal policy or trade policy. that's not his role. he sticks to monetary policy but again monetary policy can jcannot offset the concerns about the trade. that needs to be made clear. the president's reaction really to the decision was not as harsh as i expected. i expected him to go after powell and not be able to control his committee, have two dissents when you think of what trump said thus far about the meeting, it's pretty mild >> give it time. >> i was just going to say that. >> this could just be the
beginning. shannon has a question for you >> sure. >> i think the challenge for economists now is we're seeing the difference between things like pmi data and the retail spending data that you talked about. that's going to persist. how do we grapple with the fact that things like leading economic indicators are pointing to a slowdown but that's contingent on resolution of trade. how do we look at that >> i think they're right the pmi is still positive, above 50 there are all kinds of counterforce within our economy. one thing i do think is an overemphasized sector is manufacturing. it's only 11% of our economy u.s. economy is driven 70% by consumption an services. we have an abundance of excess data in the manufacturing sector, we have an abundance of excess data in the ag sector, even more than in manufacturing. so there's an overemphases on
manufacturing. it's not unimportant, but you have to keep in mind that pmi, which is weakening but still above 50, it's only 11% of the economy. i'm not dismissing it entirely, but if you put a gun to my head, which i hope you don't, in terms of focusing on one variable it would be unemployment claims employment data. when we have strong employment it leads to more confidence. look where our savings rated is? people are consuming like crazy, our savings rate is way, way up. almost historically high that gives you a lot of buying power to quell a little bit of softness in the labor market and weakness in the economy. but we're in a really nice place now. i just think the fed should gear policy towards maintaining that nice place i think economists have to be very careful about confusing what happens in markets, which are not unimportant, but confusing what's happening in
markets versus what's happening in the real economy. right now the real economy is still doing pretty well. as i think you mentioned earlier in the show. >> there's every reason to believe that richard, i'll say good-bye good to see you. enjoy your time out in that beautiful part of this great country. talk to you soon >> thanks for having me on >> let's open it up to the table. liz young? >> i don't know where to start i agree with a lot of the points he made. the first one being i don't think powell did that bad of a job. i think he realizes people are hanging on his every word so he's careful about every word. when he sees people are reacting to something and interpreting it a certain way, he tries to fix it and say that's not really what i'm saying. we have to take responsibility for the interpretation of that secondly, i don't think he had much of a choice but to cut rates. before we did this, the market was pricing in 100% chance of a cut, if he didn't do it,
financial conditions would have tightened to a point that we wouldn't have been able to recover quickly. >> isn't that his fault? >> isn't that his fault that his messaging got the market to a point where you had 100% chance that he was going to cut and 50%, 75% chance that he would cut another time >> he didn't do a bad job yesterday. december, maybe not the best communication. >> it was also his testimony to congress where he got the market to that 100% chance. what richard was talking about, he was talking about essentially -- i'll put it in an easy way, he talked about it being a football player on the field is completely different than not being on the field. when you watch it on tv, it's easy powell's communication was the problem. that was plain and simple -- i think richard would agree -- the communication of what the fed was doing, how they're looking at it going forward was not clear. because of that, that's why we saw the reaction we did.
today you see this nice bounce back did it kill everything clearly it did not especially if we can make up that 330 that we lost yesterday. volatility is from 12 to 16 and above. that's coming back in. it just takes time we talked about that yesterday on the 5:00 show give it time we'll see how this is interpreted. >> i added to some positions yesterday because it gives you the opportunity to add ifrnlt want the na >> i want the names after the break. here's what's coming up -- a double upgrade for restoration hardware why bank of america says it is time to buy. and pete it tracking unusual activity in the options market his latest trade straight ahead. and our experts are ready to answer your questions. the "halftime report" with scott
you're my sidekick. ain't nobody's sidekick. hey boys. the fate of the world is in your hands and you can't even get along. pretty disappointed right now. you want a sidekick? i'm gonna find you one. see that guy over there? he's too big. look at you two. bickering like a couple of old ladies. woo! welcome back i'm sue herera, here is your cnbc news update. a regional gas pipeline ruptured in kentucky causing a massive explosion that killed one person, hospitalized five others and forced the evacuation of a nearby mobile home park some of the structures were completely consumed by the blaze.
>> the next phase of this effort will be to identify folks that are missing or that are unaccounted for. at this point i think there's five to seven persons that we don't actually know their whereabouts. >> hundreds of financial workers joined a flash mob in hong kong to voice their anger at the government of carrie lam and called for greater democratic rights and accountabilities. many participants carried umbrellas and torchs >> and a typhoon made landfall in southern china causing heavy flooding parts of the region are expecting rain totals of up to 8 inches luckily so far no casualties have been reported that's the news update at this hour scott, back to you >> thank you very much you mentioned before the break the stocks i'm buying. give me one. >> i bought twitter today.
a little lumina, any time lumina gets bebelow, i like to add. i bought some boeing back. i think that's a great stock going forward. twitter i bought -- pete talked about unusual activity >> this stock is at the highest level since july of '18. >> purely momentum trade not a valuation trade. it's a short-term trade. i'm going to be there for about, oh, 90 seconds >> i was going to say hours? >> that's purely all it is the stop is where i bought it. if it goes below, i'm gone it's something to do today want to ask about ibm. there was a time you were negative on the stock. there was time you bought the stock. with noticed that ibm is one of the best dow performers in the month of july, it's up 6%. it was resumed overweight at morgan stanley
170 is the price target. about 20 bucks >> yeah. this is about where i sold it. i bought it at like 155. sold it at 152 i will guess -- >> you've been critical of ginni rometty. >> i still am. her record speaks for itself i would guess morgan stanley is an adviser in the red hat deal i would take that with a grain of salt. >> they say investors are missing the meaningful acceleration in the ibm core revenues you bought the stock before. why? >> there was a hint of revenue growth i thought it would be there. i'm not happy with the red hat acquisition. >> that's where you're totally wrong. you're completely wrong on that. that's why i bought more and added to it today. >> if they were intergrating red hat instead of leading it out there as a stand-alone company, i would much rather see a new
ceo. >> which you might >> she's been there for a long time and for the board to let this -- this ceo, who has watched a stock go down by nearly 50% while the market doubled, to let her go out for a highly leveraged company and spend 34 billion on an acquisition, you should replace the board that's why i'm not involved. >> i don't disagree with what he was saying about replacing some of the members on the board. you're right look at the performance level that begginny has had since she been there not that great years of shrinkage >> but you own it. >> i bought it over a year ago i added to it today. the reason i did, i'm seeing options in there today, buying upside they're rolling from september 150s to october 155s instead of doing the calls i added with the stock i think red hat is the
disruptorment i thidisrupto me and i think they'll an monster but who do you think would be selected as the ceo to replace her? jim whitehurst, one of the best leaders in all of technology stocks >> i was dealing with ibm, there was a business of theirs i was looking at lifting out you've never seen such -- >> inefficient >> a culture that nobody wants to be there. they all see things wrong. everybody has their resume out >> they might have -- >> that's probably a bit of an overstatement. >> it's probably not no it probably is not that is the -- the culture is the problem. that's why i say the leadership ability -- if you never met or spoke with whitehurst, this guy is unbelievable. he is the reason that that acquisition is a two-part thing. you get him and you got red hat. those pieces will be unbelievable at some point over the next year
or so, i think that's your ceo got a no, a yes, you settle it you own it, too. >> i think it's a yes on the -- on what pete is saying about red hat. to your point about execution, we talk about this as a need for a cultural shift we talked about it with ge, we're talking about it with ibm. it's possible -- i feel like you see the shift we've seen when microsoft has been able to pivot their business and get good execution from a management perspective. if that creates opportunity at ibm, there's a lot of upside at the stock. >> you want to give me a name, joe, you're looking at or bought >> it's not ibm. i think they need to do a series of acquisitions to get to where you're talking about they have not done enough to diversify. red hat is a fantastic company, but that alone will not get them where they need to be. listen, i think we need to talk a little bit about the performance of some of the semis today. yesterday after amd, i think we were really placing them in
position where, okay, the best days were behind them. you have got -- >> overpromise, underdeliver >> it should have impacted nvidia as well because of the gaming component nvidia has come back lamb reach, 218 today. incredible turnaround. >> guide wire last night >> guide wire is a name i own. turnaround there sears it up about 20% today. >> who is their biggest customer >> there you go. >> apple >> within technology there's stories that are being told here that are fundamentally driven that i view as favorable >> all right coming up, options bulls, so says pete, are betting on metals and mining today he has two new trades coming up. first a check on the s&p sector. a big snapback day for the market s&p is good for about 28 points.
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says pete najarian >> we had this a while back. those worked out well. now today they started off buying the january calls, then moved to september the september 18 calls extremely active today buying those to the upside that's a fairly short-term trade. you can see some volumes there these are huge volumes that we're seeing at pan american silver out in january but specifically the september calls. i had to buy these when i see something like this, inexpensive calls, and if we get any move to the upside -- and we're seeing metals move i have gld as well it's on top of this pan american silver, which i will be in for four, five weeks gld is going out until october this started hitting may 31st. gld trading around 120 now it's in the 134 range. 25 different occasions we've had unusual buying opportunities here these are the october 135s that
they're buying today aggressively nice size but there is some premium involved, about $2.50. know what you got, be careful, the discipline is there. >> thank you the investment committee is ready to answer your questions on bbvie, sales force and more you can send us your question or eeustwt , we're back in a little more than two minutes. let's do it. [ sniffing ] come on. this summer, add a new member to the family. hurry into the mercedes-benz summer event today for exceptional offers. lease the glc 300 suv for just $419 a month at the mercedes-benz summer event. going on now.
we're back on the halftime report answering your questions. shannon, i have one for you. jerry from massachusetts, crm, would you add here or do you like it for a long-term core holding? which you own, sales force >> i think you can potentially add here if you're not in full position i see it as a long-term hold if you leak at i.t. spending, that's growing 5% this year, down from 8% last year however that's twice gdp growth.
so we still think that companies will be utilizing salesforce, they're the leader in the space, so we would like it here for an add and a hold >> liz for you, from vinny the outlook for reits. what do you think? >> if you already own real estate, keep it. if you don't own tshit, buy a b. the buffer from a dividend is a nice offset. >> all right thank you for your questions as always i have a question for you. >> oh, no. >> how did you know? restoration hardware, call of the day, double upgrade, bank of america they go from underperform to buy, price target, i mean, from 85 to 165 you did not like this thing in march. stock is up 10% since then obviously it -- a chunk of that is from today. give me the view now you have nine buys, 11 holds
>> right you have a new ceo, relatively new ceo there. he's done a great job turning it around this was a major, major short. it's no longer a major short so i do like it because the sensitivity to interest rates, and people are spending more money, consumers i'm not necessarily buying on this spike i need to see it consolidate a bit. i don't view it as being expensive. we saw what lululemon can do that was thought to be expensive. it got more expensive. it deserves that multiple this could change the multiple, but again this will be one of the first ones to go if rates go up with the economy >> they had to upgrade it. they had 85 on the target. >> they had a choice to make >> 142 right now there was little choice to do that you have a comment >> i do. two things i think it consolidates here and works itself out i have to defend steven. he made that call in march, the
stock went down to 84 at end of may. he was right in making that call >> i was just messing around you guys should switch seats no no >> we're good. >> all right very good. gold prices are hitting -- >> he's my wingman >> you muddled your message. >> gold prices are hitting a two-week low after the rate cut. we have your trades coming up next first kelly has a look at what's coming up. >> we have acceptance, denial, panic, disgust and now euphoria. call it the five stages of the market's fed grief, what comes next we'll dig into that. and as beyond meat is falling today, one of its biggest competitors is launching its biggest partnership yet. and maryland is helping grads pay down student debt if they buy a home. there we'll talk to the governor about how that works and whether it is working and how much it costs. that's all coming up on "the
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dovish as they'd like and started selling gold gold maybe got a little ahead of itself when you look at the 10-year trading under 2% now rates are still going lower. the money printing is still on, and i think this is an opportunity to sort of step in and buy gold on a pullback i think it got a little too ahead of itself. react on this profit-taking, and i like it at these levels here >> jim, if the ecb follows the fed and cuts rates in september, what could that mean for gold going forward? >> i think if you look at gold, gold stocks, the dollar and 10-year, rejection is the word all of it, the story has changed quite a bit since this morning and one thing you mentioned, the ecb is important everybody is dovish. no reason to sell gold if gold goes above $1450, the leveled i outlined yesterday, to me it's a more bullish sign because it will have rejected those lows >> for more futures now, check out our live show. we'll be joined by phil orlando from federated investors and
paul ciana who said the fed just did an inconvenient cut. that's on futuresnow.com scott, back to you coming up -- final trades are rahthestig aad i don't know what's going on. i've done all sorts of research, read earnings reports, looked at chart patterns. i've even built my own historic trading model. and you're still not sure if you want to make the trade? exactly. sounds like a case of analysis paralysis. is there a cure? td ameritrade's trade desk. they can help gut check your strategies and answer all your toughest questions. sounds perfect. see, your stress level was here and i got you down to here, i've done my job. call for a strategy gut check with td ameritrade. ♪
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have failed. then it reached out to by allergen, a company that has massive debt and they're doing it with debt itself. dividend yield of 4.6% >> do you buy puts or just get rid of it? >> if you're long, i'd buy some puts. >> okay. >> mr. options man, one for you from harry in north carolina transocean what do you think? >> i'd only play it through options. i think it's like rolling dice right now with these names that name has been sold off an incredible amount and the lack of performance is absolutely staggering right now so i'd stay away from it i think there's better names in energy >> 45 seconds or so left final trades >> i'm going to give you symantec the 22 1/2s, 24 1/2s i like this name it's gotten beaten up. >> region, uk large cap equities valuations are attractive. think they do well or without a brexit deal. >> okay. >> more of a long-term play, but, yes >> thank you for being here. >> shannon >> chevron
they report tomorrow we expect good free cash flow numbers. they've got a great base in the permian and they're a better stock to own than exxon. >> i see as well, mr. weiss. >> just because you don't like stock doesn't mean there aren't opportunities. ibm has their meeting tomorrow at 10:00 ibm. >> okay. cintas >> thanks for watching "the exchange" starts now. thank you, scott, hi, everybody. the stages of fed grief from acceptance to panic and now to euphoria a look at the markmarket's roll coaster reaction to the rate cut and what tomorrow's job report could mean and the battle of the fake burgers just got more intense. the impossible burger is going national we'll talk to the ceo about his plan to take on beyond meat. and facebook's next move they dominate your small screen. now it wants to own your tv. we'll tell you how we begin