tv Fast Money CNBC August 1, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EDT
i think it is significant. the jobs number hard to know exactly whether it sways the debate tremendously unless it is a real outlier number because i think jobs is not the swing factor. >> it is trade. >> exactly in terms of the fed. we are out of time thanks for watching. that does it for "closing bell." >> "fast money" begins right now. ♪ live from the nasdaq market site overlooking new york city's times square, this is "fast money" i'm scott wapner in tonight for melissa lee. our traders on the desk are carter worth, tim seymour, steve grasso and guy adami we kick things off with a tariff takedown, that's what it was stocks tumbling late today as president trump turns up the heat on the trade war with china, the dow giving up a 311 point game to finish the day deep in the red. we have full team coverage of today's dramatic turn of events. let's begin with the latest out of the white house where eamon javers is live for us in washington. >> reporter: the president just talked to reporters on the south lawn he was asked if he was concerned about the stock market tumble you were talking about in the
wake of his tweet about the china tariffs. the president said he wasn't worried about it he, in fact, expected it he said it is because people don't fully understand what his tariff strategy is in fact, the president here blaming the market for not understanding exactly what his approach is to tariffs and to china. he was also asked by me exactly why he picked 10% as opposed to 25% or 5% on the tafrs he tariffs here is what he had to say. >> i did more than anybody thought with the first 250 billion and the 10% is for a short-term period, and then i can always do much more or i can do less, depending on what happens with respect to a deal but i'm very happy the way it is right now. >> so the president there saying that he could go up to above 25% if he felt that was necessary, but he said he doesn't see that as being necessary at this point. so that puts a lot of tension now on those negotiations between the u.s. side and the chinese side here in washington in early september the president was also asked an
interesting question, if he is considering a blockade of venezuela. he said yes, but it was just a one-word answer. he didn't offer us any real detail on when that would begin, how it would work, why it is being put in now, but the president did respond in the affirmative when he was asked if he was considering a blockade of venezuela, guys. that's something else to chew over in terms of the geopolitics around all of this. >> eamon, thank you. that's eamon javers, live on the north lawn of the white house once again let's trade it guy. >> okay. >> you guys are the ones paid to figure it out. so we have -- >> a lot of pressure. >> we have a tale of two days. everything seems copacetic and then -- >> oh, you mean today was the tale of two days, thank you for the clarification. >> then you have a tweet late in the afternoon that caused an instant reversal. >> makes sense i thought the market should have been down today anyway, but it is a horse of a different color. i think the president -- this is my opinion i think the president. we talked about this, is trying
to force jerome powell's hand. i mean the fed chair yesterday said, you know what one of the biggest risks to the market is more tariffs what does the president do on the back of that levies more tariffs. steve leishman pointed that out in a tweet today again, he wasn't happy with a 24, 25 point cut, wants another one. maybe he will get it, maybe he won't. i think the market is calling bs on this and i think there's further down side on this. >> grasso, how do you see it >> who is he putting more pressure on, on powell or china? he is putting pressure on both of them. you get a dark period where you won't hear from the fed, earnings are almost done, so what do you have to look forward to what do you have to be afraid of i think it was kind of genius on his part to do this, and then he backed off it immediately which i wish he did not back off it immediately, saying this is only a temporary thing. then why do it you know, you take the bite out of it 10 minutes after he did it i thought was the only thing he did wrong in the process. >> how about the earnings is this this has been with us for a
while. if you look at the earnings quarter to date, companies that do more than half of their business outside the u.s. down almost 14%, versus companies that do more than half in the u.s. up. this is just fuel on the fire. >> you have to rethink every way you are going to play the market. >> it is funny you soy that, scott. first of all, i agree with guy i'm going to get my extra 25 bits right now. i'm going to get it. oh, boy, i guess trade does matter because, in fact, when you combine trade with the fed that really, you know, we graded the fed yesterday, but either way we all agreed they had a tough job ahead of them in terms of what went on yesterday. so ultimately look at what responded. let's get to the market. what responded >> oh, man, what didn't respond? wow. >> for people straight off apple, let's go to a name we've all been talking about for the last couple of days. i guess apple might be a trade war stock after all. i thought it decoupled and i am being a little facetious, but you have a case here look at wynn, emerging markets. >> look at some of the retail stocks
some of the retail stocks were obliterated after the tweet. it was stunning. >> i will simply say i think the same playbook is probably at work here. look what was defensive, starbucks, mcdonald's, mega cap tech in a lower growth environment where you have a valuation argument, look at google, amazon and microsoft today, those were names that were stalwarts. >> but when guy opened up saying that you thought the market should have been down, people underestimated stopping qt now, what that does for the overall market that's why the market was up in my opinion. >> the market overreacted -- >> qts -- >> -- overreacted yesterday trying to figure out what powell was saying. >> it is almost cutting by proxy. you have them cut the 25 basis points, then you have qf being removed. it is almost the 25 from december and now you get another 25 so you sort of did get your 50. >> this is all more of the same narrative. think what you said. so money hides in fewer and
fewer names as bank have been underperforming for three years, industrials, it is the same story. it is more pronounced. that's never a good sign. >> i wonder do you need to rethink the way you play the market if you think you are getting the tariffs in a month it changes almost everything now. >> yes and no because i think -- or at least i had thought we were going to get those tariffs or something like those tariffs in a month four months ago, five months ago i think it comes down to it is still about the fed right now. i think we're still digesting a mid cycle adjustment, and i think it is a more important dynamic for the market because i think the trade at some point -- we don't even know how you win the trade war. we don't know what the terms are for the trade war. >> this is what i thought though why wouldn't you raise the tariffs in october 1st so you get -- you force the hand from powell for september meeting versus september 1st, if he doesn't do it, doesn't have to cut right? i mean why not wait, give yourself an extra 30 days?
if he's delaying it now anyway, push it off to october 1st. >> the thing that's concerning to me is the way the market responded. look at dollar/yen which is for a risk 1.5 handles on yen stronger, which means watch 107, we break that, i think it gets dangerous. 189 on the ten-year. this is the low, this is a level on the ten-year bond since before the elections so we went to bed the night of the election and we actually had a ten-year around these levels we woke up the next day and two days later we were moving higher we almost cut ten-year yields in half since november, and that to me is the barometer of what the market thinks about growth. >> what do you make of the move in oil today that in and of itself would be the lead of this show, the fact that wti and brent were down by such a large amount. that's stunning in and of itself. >> commodities in general. you are getting the message in a comprehensive way something is very wrong. >> what i was going to say quickly -- >> going to say dollar going up is not great for commodities. >> that's what i was going to
say. don't discount that the president with this tariff talk is trying to somehow ratchet back the u.s. dollar he is clearly concerned about. one of my big concerns will be will they -- being the administration -- pull the trigger and somehow intervene in the u.s. dollar, which to me would be madness at the highest level. quickly without getting down a rabbit hole, the chinese is at levels where it is right on the edge the last time we saw it around these levels was august of 2015-ish and go back and see what happened in the ensuing months. >> remember december of 2015 >> of course that's why i brought it up. >> ugly. >> it speaks to the mixed messaging of powell where you have the dollar on a cut, you have the dollar rally. the market didn't know what to make of powell's cut it was a hawkish 25 basis points and that to me -- >> isn't that what the fed wanted >> i don't know if that's what he wanted. >> if you think about it, the only reason the dollar is rallying is because it is the appearance or the view that central bank riff ren shals are wider than people thought five minutes before the meeting,
which actually the fed is not as easy as boj and ecb, and we hope they're not because it is not policy that worked. >> john stoltz is here on the set with us. you tell us what you make of all of this. >> i can't help but say they're related to the dollar. i think the dollar also has the effect it has become a safe haven currency and that's a real problem. it is not only the differential in terms of the yield, but it is safe haven assets that are determined by the dollar, an environment where you have negative yields at 13, $14 trillion of negative yields around the world we are still positive. everything is relative, and it is an environment where there's very little peace right now but we may be leading up to a crescendo of things that lead to some kind of agreement in the trade war. i don't think anybody expects we are going to go to a perfect world with a trade agreement, but at least it will point us in the right direction and hopefully begin to reinstate the
process of globalization with china as a player. it will feel less threatened because right now it is losing by the day you have firms that -- companies are diversifying their supply chain away from china, and that's only going to compound the longer this continues. >> it is easier said than done, too. >> if i had asked you this morning post-powell how you play this market, you would have been positive, buy stocks >> i would have been positive and said buy stocks. >> now it is 5:00, just past in the east, you got another tweet and tariffs now. you say what >> before the close we were looking for -- we were looking for stocks that had come off, that we had seen just a few days ago looked a little bit expensive, we're beginning to shop to buy. we still like consumer discretionary, technology, industrials and financials go figure. because we don't think this is -- this goes forward forever. >> you don't think it happens? >> oh, i think what we do have here -- i don't think he is
going to actually do it. i think we get some kind of a truce ahead of -- ahead of -- to provide opportunity to come to an agreement he's saying this is what i'm prepared to do the irony and the sadness of all of this is probably the only thing that would get china's attention was a trade war with tariffs because a traditional negotiation was not going to work. >> one heck of a game. >> financials, i mean is it valuations that makes you want to buy those because basically they haven't worked and they're not going to work. is it so bad it is good or what is it? >> actually it worked this year. they underperformed the s&p 500 but at one point financials were up 14% related to industrials, we think it is related to new technology. when it comes back, you have industrial products today are riddled with technology, whether it is all kinds of sensors. >> gm, a case in point. >> this is the cyclical and the secular trends that are the offset to a lot of the negativity that we have.
>> what if i told you that powell, he made his cut in rates yesterday and that's it and he's done would your outlook on the market change >> i think it would depend how things develop from here today is too fresh it is like yesterday people were saying to me, what do you think on the back of what just happened? well, it seems to make sense people were waiting for an opportunity to be able to take profits without fomo they got it today by the confusion with the fed chair, and today they had more time because the markets are up if you look at a screen that shows you the world market, markets are green around the world, whether it is latin america with the exception of mexico europe, you've got it higher on the-year-old. >> measuring the year-to-date number is an arbitrary thing most are below where they were 18 months ago. >> that is one thing, but the good thing is they're higher than they were on december 24th. >> that's an arbitrary thing. >> well, global equity -- >> that's what wall street is
gauged -- >> i get all of that. >> you get paid annually, the reality is that global equities are not working. they peaked 18 months ago. >> or maybe they were in the process of working and we were in the middle of a great big ramp-up higher, the next leg to come, and we have just been interrupted. it is like stocks interruptus. >> who was the big interrupter, powell yesterday or trump later in the evening good to see you. we are just getting started on "fast money" up next, commodities crush oil, handing in its worse day in more than four years. drilling down on the crude collapse, but pin stress and square on the move after reporting. live in times square in new york city tonight much more "fast money" right after this oh, don't worry. voya helps them to and through retirement... ...dealing with today's expenses... ...like college...
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anything that sort of goes clunk in the night, cyclicality not good let's talk about banks you know, i had a teacher/mentor that said if you can draw a straight line you probably will be okay in this business i thought he was insulting me but he was being very candid it is a straight line, isn't it? guess what i'll be darn, it rallies there and fails. now, consensus, of course, was that this was going to be a head-and-shoulders bottom on wall street but it is nothing of the kind it is some sort of weird, bizarre, not a head-and-shoulders bottom. it is something that failed repeatedly, repeatedly and it is failing again. more importantly than absolute return of course is relative, opportunity cost here is the real tragedy if i put the line from the low, and one could say that banks while they're up, that's true, of course their relative performance is straight down also, it has failed to the penny, to the penny, to the penny at this relative down
trend line it hit that line literally today and sunk again not a great setup. in fact, if you pull this back even further, now i want to single out really what has happened since the 2016 presidential election. that's what happens right here of the that's your trump bump. so look at the next slide. what we know is this, that basically all of the alpha -- right. so this is the index itself. this is relative performance to the market on the bottom we have undone the entire election we are trading below where we were three-plus years ago, and that's not adjusting for beta or cyclicality in risk. not good not good today, and i don't know what the narrative is that makes it good going forward. >> yeah. come on over we'll finish the conversation on the desk let's trade the banks. >> well, if you think about bank earnings this quarter, expectations were relatively light. there was a boost from mortgages. the yield curve actually was steepening into bank earnings and it was something beneficial to banks it is part of the little blip up
that carter says he thinks is now failing at resistance. i just say this. look, with the 189 ten-year and the jury is out in terms of where growth is, the curve will continue to flatten. right now the bond market is pushing on the fed to do their next move. in the short run though, i actually still like banks. they haven't been a disaster yes, they've been side ways for 12 to 18 months, but you're close if not at record earnings across the group their capital allocation as seen by jp morgan almost failing intentionally, because they want to give more capital back to investors. for investors, banks are being run differently. think that he being run for equity investors. >> jp morgan used to be everyone's favorite bank they're up 18% to date i think citi has been the out performing, up 21%. >> goldman. >> in the bull case, clients say, the balance sheets are better than they've been, dividends are on the rise, but guess what when the cycle changes, what
happens? >> i think the biggest bullish thing was you had deregulation and the tax cuts those were the two most bullish things that could have ever happened to the xlf or to the big banks. but if you still have to hide -- or you want to have some exposure, i think you stay with a goldman or -- >> if you thought there was going to be a rate cut cycle you could get a steepening of the yield curve and that would be -- >> which you got. >> now if you're not going to get the cycle -- >> i agree with you. i guess what i'm saying is you got that going into the fed meeting and the testimony. >> because you thought you were going to get it. >> that's what people thought. >> and it is only u.s. banks japanese banks are making new five-year lows. >> seven year lows in europe look at credit what else was up today high yield was up today. until the credit market starts to -- and, of course, that's what everybody said. powell yesterday talked about the banks, talked about the strength of the financial system he's right carter is saying it. yes, doesn't guarantee necessarily they're going to be strong tomorrow if we have essentially this trip -- sorry,
this bbb credit out there that looks very vulnerable. >> you can read more about today's sell-off on our website, cnbc.com we have much more "fast money" straight ahead coming up, "hip to be square?" we have instant reaction to square's quarterly report. later, rolling the dice on china, the casino stocks caught in the crosshairs of a trade war. is now the time to cash in your chips? we're hitting the tables when "fast money" returns
an sec filing showing that carl icahn has more than 12% stake in the company. it comes as the stock has dropped nearly 50% in the past year, so he is apparently looking for a bargain and the shares are reacting. other after hour movers today, pintrest and square on the move after reportingresults julia boorstin is standing by on pintrest, but let's begin with josh lipton with square's quarter. >> reporter: i checked in with john over at jeffreys. some reasons include the gross payment volume, growth decelerating, expense is higher so the take rate margins were higher q3 guidance was weaker than expected some big news here, square announced door dash has agreed to buy caviar, its food-ordering platform for 410 million, a mix of cash and door dash preferred stock. remember, square paid 44 million
for it back in 2014. jack dorsey talking about the decision right off the top of the call take a listen. >> to increase our focus we decided to sell our caviar business to door dash. this enables us to focus on serving restaurant and food sellers through a platform approach, specifically our orders api and square for restaurants. door dash was an obvious choice for us because of our preexisting partnership through orders api and cash up both companies have an alignment of interests to strengthen our partnership. >> reporter: but john hekt over jeffrey just based on a revenue multiple of square, maybe he says the market those it was worth more than they're getting. the company cfo noting, listen, this will allow us to improve focus, greater investment it of. it says they're maintaining full year guidance, 43% adjusted revenue growth they'll update that guidance after it closes. >> that's josh lipton for us on the west coast you want to trade square
>> it has gotten complicated or crowded i should say third year quarter was not what people wanted. their subscription could be at $250 million near-term balance sheet improvement. i think you have dynamics with payments overall where a lot of the stuff was priced extraordinarily. there's nothing about this multiple on a difficult day, on a not-great report for a third quarter, that means you need to chase the stock tomorrow. >> i was long with stock very early, sold it around these levels i have not revisited the name. the average price target on the street is 82.5 i think after today's print they will ratchet those in. i think you still have time to buy it as a discount i'm not stepping back in. >> the quarter was fine. actually, the margins were fine. they bet revenue margins, were fine it is the guide. as tim just said, the third quarter guide scared a lot of people they reiterated full year at third quarter, they said it will be slow. that's concerning at this valuation which is why it is down 5% or so. it has to get through the 81 level, which is where it has been trading for the last seemingly three months
think you got to buy it on a breakout or look for the trade back -- >> but if i made, you like that trade? >> i like it a lot this is one of the best performing stocks over the past three years. it peaked with the global equity market in january of '18 and it has been treading water since. this setback looks to be minor buy it here and take advantage. >> dorsey, square, twitter, has been crushing it lately, too >> dorsey is mvp right now. >> can he really run both, res those conversations? not that long ago. >> let's turn our attention to pintrest on the move since reporting results and that conference call under way as well julia boorstin has the highlights for us. >> reporter: pintrest soaring on better than expected results across the board ben silverman saying on the call just know that the companies improvements to the platform, including making it easier to buy things, are benefitting users and advertisers. >> as retailers get organic
value, they're more and more amenable to paying to increase that value through our shopping apps products. we continue to kind of release features to enable that, things that will let them measure the conversions in a clear way, things to let them get analytics on which of their products are performing well. all of that said, think of it as a long-term investment we don't think that shopping will be an independent revenue stream that will show up for a while. >> reporter: it is worth noting here that pintrest does not take a cut of sales, but the easier it is to buy things on pintrest the more incentive there is for advertisers to spend james cordwell of atlanta equities saying pintrest has delivered exactly what very muchors were looking for u.s. user growth showing there's plenty of growth potential meanwhile, the tripling of international revenue underscores the huge opportunity for the company in monetizing its significant overseas user base tom forte from d.a. davidson saying, we believe increasing
global regulatory scrutiny on facebook and google gives pintrest an opportunity to take market share and potentially chip away at the digital marketing duopoly facebook and google represent as for the company's stronger than expected outlook, pintrest saying it is drawing a broader assortment of advertisers as well as getting existing advertisers to spend more, and the combination of those two things paying off. you see share trading up 12% after hours. over to you. >> thank you a big gainer, guy. >> it is funny square's evaluation thing, how do you like pintrest well, you have growth here monthly users up year over year. >> folks at home, in case you didn't know -- >> up 29% year over year, international rpu. >> which is international -- >> thank you, tim. what is the point? you still have growth here probably going to be a billion users within the next couple of years. i think you can own the stock. >> last quarter they kind of ran
out of gas on maus and they needed to pull this out. >> monthly average users if we are doing it internationally, it would be international maus. >> seems like they pulled one out. he of i don't know if they're out of the woods yet but if you go qoq -- >> quarter on quarter. >> sorry. >> i was trying to give him one there. >> i think you are okay to invest now, but have you to watch the maus. >> international, of course, that would be -- >> international stuff. >> it is good. technically we know it came out of the gate strong and stumbled badly. after 15 days of trading it plunged 25% and it has been working back ever since. i like it. >> that's pintrest for you up next, tariff taking stocks down during this session president trump turns up the heat on the trade war with china. two sectors hit hard in the sell-off r e ill find out what is next fothchips and retail stick with us. "fast money" will be right back.
♪ >> we're back on "fast money". a rough day on wall street president trump's new tariff threat taking down two key parts of the market, retail and the semi conductors. we, of course, have team coverage of both of those big movers courtney reagan all over retail wreckage, but let's start with bertha coombs on the semis sell
off. >> reporter: you know, you have to start with the apple sell up. take a look at the chart on apple. it was a $12 move intraday on apple. it busted out to about $219 and apple, in fact, on its conference call said they had seen sales rebound in china, they were growing again. this has been one of the issues that has dogged them for over a year but here we are again talking about tariffs. the close today, we closed exactly almost where we were back on may 6th at the beginning of the swoon we saw in technology over the issue of tariffs. take a look at the chips today for the week they are now down about 5% they got hit hard yesterday on the disappointment that we weren't getting a 50-basis point cut, and they got hit again today with the tweets just as they were starting to recover. some of those chip names with big exposure in china like maxim integrated products, sky works, some of the apple suppliers hit
the hardest. maxim in fact started about the fact they are starting to see some stabilization in china, nonetheless some of their clients like huawei are starting to look elsewhere. so this is one of the issues that people are worried about, that as this rhetoric heats up again we could get again this sense of, let's look elsewhere compared to these normal suppliers that we have been using. you could also see a bit o patriotism in china. they might look away from apple again as they feel that the u.s. is beating up on them. interestingly bucking the trend though was cirrus logic that talked about stabilization in china but also potential growth as they see more stabilization in iphone sales and they look forward to some of their chips being used in perhaps voice biometrics by apple in some of its devices. that was really the only sort of high late today in the chip space when all is said and done. back to you.
>> that's bertha coombs for us thank you. timmy, what do you think first you had amd blow up there and now this. >> look, earnings season appropriately gave us a fair amount of bottom-up guidance into different companies in different parts of the chip space. you can't paint them all with the same brush we got some relief out of a couple of folks including intel, but when you looked at memory chips they were so over sold there was a trend for micron over the last couple of weeks has been very good if you look at nvidia or some of the players with higher growth chip numbers and exposure to more gaming, they've been under pressure if you are trading them as a group, they rallied 26% in about 18 days, 18 sessions going into a pull back which is now almost 8% across the last six session this tarltpull back started befw started digesting this they're way over done. >> you had micron rally in july.
you had d ram which it is tied to, which rallied. i bought microsoft on the break through of 140 the market gave you something here granted, those are -- you are looking at highs that you have not seen before, but i wanted to buy more on this dip i will see how long it lasts, but i think microsoft, you are getting a multiple expansion here and i think it works its way to one-50th, the market gets back to where it is. >> semis, it is the same story -- >> i guess you are a negative? >> it is the same story. banks and industrials relative to the market. semis just been a bad about bet the last two years if you are a tech manager and you can choose between soft wear or semis, the cyclical bet has underperformed remember, it is also a u.s. phenomenon if you look at the japanese semi conductor index, look at kospi dominated by samsung at almost 20%, they're not working. >> he get that. >> you get it. but if you are unerring money and you can choose between microsoft or semis or qualcomm
or -- but i mean the point being you are not winning with this pick this is called negative alpha. >> but couldn't you have made an argument that actually the breakout we saw really towards the middle of july in semis to fresh highs off of breaking out above the, you know, kind of the pre-may war tweet resistance going all the way back to, again, look, we peaked in 2018 on the semis in the summer, except we made two new highs. >> once you adjust for beta, and you adjust for the under performing alpha it is a bad proposition. you had to have been in sort of the right ones you have big ones like intel. >> that's true broadening the tech real quick, this is pre-president trump's tweet today, preall of the fed stuff yesterday. facebook reported a great quarter. it has gone down since they reported amazon reported a decent quarter. gone straight down since it reported now apple reported what everybody says the historic quarter, pretty much has gone
straight down since it reported. to broaden further, not that we talk about this name a lot, but look at intech who guided down in a miserable way this is a data storm plage play saw trading at levels this last december everybody loves technology, a lot of good reasons to love it but bad things going on as well. retailers getting whacked in today's session. courtney reagan following that part of the story for us. >> reporter: hi, scott it looks like it is a reality on september 1st of 10% the round of tariffs will include consumer products like clothing, shoes and electronics. best buy shares down almost 11%. i will remind you that may, look, it is premature to speculate on the impact of further tariffs. he added it is unclear whether list four would be implemented, what products would be included and when best buy think they're in
trouble. steve madden lost nearly 9%. nearly all of the products it sells in the u.s. are made in china. it is a name analysts are watching closely gap inc. shed 8% it has only 20% exposure sourcing to china, but since it sells its own goods there are no vendors to split the cost with like tapestry, the owner of coach and kate spade, michael coarse and jimmy choo, those names sold off the retailers have been working on diversifying their supply chains outside of china for years, accelerating those plans when they can in recent months, but china is still the number one country where u.s.-sold apparel and footwear is made near 40% of u.s. apparel and 70% of footwear was made in china last year. retailers are waiting to speak on this issue. the national retail federation
saying in part, quote, these additional tariffs will only threaten u.s. jobs and raise costs for american families on everyday goods, and the tariffs imposed over the past year haven't worked scott. >> yep, courtney thank you very much for that how do you want to play this >> so courtney just said -- >> destroyed. >> courtney said the gap store has no leverage over it but who has leverage walmart. walmart has leverage over suppliers. what is going to happen if the tafrs go into play on september 1st? people will preorder their stuff and order too much who is going to benefit? ross stores, tj max, the same trade we saul a couple of months ago. >> carl will probably tell you 80 bucks on this chart, it has been wasting your time on a risk adjusted basis for a long time if you look at the valuation of the company, it is a company that at least in the world of amazonization of so many retailers, they have their game on actually this kind of pull back to me is one to put on your watch list. >> what about nike, a name like
that you saw initial reaction again today. >> nike,@lea, at least the last quarters at its peak they told you that the china business is strong if anything, i think this is a pull back in nike to buy. >> walmart, listen, it has extended to the upside for a while with the same value, but 22 times forward. >> it's been a great chart. >> absolutely. so has proctor & gamble. you look at the companies and say how did they deserve, proctor at 24 times, walmart at 22 and the environment we find ourselves in, you can talk about low rates, but they're too expensive. >> they're low on earnings but they're rich. >> with walmart, the element has been e kmars they're been battle in amazon so there's been an argument should they get an expansion on the multiple based on the fact that their ecommerce business has been growing well. >> i didn't hear anybody mention
target. >> if you like walmart 22 you have to love target at 16.5, 17. recently target had a decent move what defines logic is continued wft. >> especially if we have input costs coming higher from china, no margin for error in the consumables business they all use to get people in their stores yes, target over walmart on relative value, just on valuation i think is the trade in either case -- i have been wrong on wal-mart so i missed the move but it is not the time to chase it now. up next, casino stocks getting slammed in today's session. so is now the time to double down or cash in your chips. >> come on. >> nice job, scott. >> i just read 'em one sector smackdown, ringing the alarm. there's much more "fast money" after this break
we're back on "fast money" the casino stock is getting slammed in today's session contessa brewer is back at our hq with details. contessa. >> reporter: hey there, scott. casinos were dealing with tough news out of macau. july gaming revenues down 3.5% compared to a year ago consensus expectations were growth of .7%. investors are watching the
slowdown in the vip play and companies like wynn and las vegas sands are getting walloped by a slow down in that particular segment they're trying to focus more players, and yet mgm resorts, which relies less on its china casinos for overall revenue than its competitors is ramping up its high-end offering on new villas and junket rooms. don't forget hong kong-based milco resorts which beat wall street expectations and gained macau at the expense of wynn and sands. analysts say steve wynn is not looking optimistically for macau. it lowered the forecast for gaming revenue growth from 1.4% down to flat to 2% the comps will get easier after august so let's talk about that vip segment, the high rollers. what do they do? well, they own factories they run companies they're the titans of industry, and as china's economy macau
a recent development is that one of the largest junkets, sun city, has been accused o, of coe trade war has had an impact. for one thing, fewer chinese gamblers are visiting casinos abroad las vegas continues to see a slump in its bacarret volumes and there's speculation whether u.s. casinos in macau suffer from a cultural backlash as a result of the trade tensions or whether those casinos will suffer as retribution against the united states when they're due to have their licenses, what they call concessions, renewed in 2022. it is something to keep your eye on as you move forward with these stocks, all down on the day between 2% and 5%. >> thank you, contessa brewer back at headquarters timmy, first crack. >> i think she drew attention to the most important issues. i think they've been eating their lunch and there's been a trade dynamic at work here this is home grown i think the second part is that the comps in terms of the macau
gaming ggr -- internationally it would be gross gaming revenue as well. >> i appreciate that. >> you have a case where june and may were strong, the expectations for july at least earlier in the month would be flat, coming in down 3.5, which is a big surprise. this is a trade war stock. it will be exacerbated on a tape like today, and with those announcements i don't think they will break out. >> what about lvs and wynn >> lvs under performed, and wynn is up. i know las vegas has its own problems but you get singapore, you get macau as well, where with wynn you only get the macau entity and the las vegas entity. i would be a player on the las vegas side wynn has been the out performer in the deal. >> churchill downs is up today, big day and big earnings. >> look at wcbw. >> don't fool with the other ones stay withton woulds working. >> what about you, high roller >> i have never played baccarat. have you ever played
i walk by and i run. looks like smart people at those tables they have pads they're counting. >> you ever played the slots >> in high school i did. that's another story. >> i bet >> listen, wynn resorts, stocks -- >> i love the laugh track. >> stocks went from 100 to 150, smack in the middle of the range. given the headlines you got to wait i think the entry level of wynn is around 110 where it bottomed out a month or so ago. >> you never played blackjack? >> you want to play the game when i go to the casino which i do from time to time, i play craps. to help the folks at home -- this is trade school -- you cut the odds 50.3 to 49.7 house over player if you know what you're doing. i happen to know what i'm doing. >> clearly i'm almost sorry i asked. >> bring that with the equities. >> well, you know. >> all right up next, a giant danger zone options traders are betting this key part of the market could drop 14% in the coming months.
details ahead. you are looking at the cramer cam. it is a big day. jim is getting ready to break down what happened in today's big sell-off be sure to catch m"mad money" at the top of the hour. we are less than ten minutes away we are live at the nasdaq in times square much more "fast" straight ahead. ♪ hmm. exactly.
we're back on "fast money" industrials tumbling in today's sell-off and options traders are betting that the pain trade could be getting started oh, no mike khouw breaks it down with "options action" mikey. >> reporter: yes, so we were taking a look at xli, the industrials etf today, which traded more than double its average daily put volume and it usually trades a lot to begin with the most active were the january '67 puts we saw about 2,500 of those trading for about a dollar buyers of those puts are betting it could fall below the strike at the dollar they paid. it would represent a 14% decline over the next six months in x lirks i. looks like some of the traders may be betting is lows we saw in late twit cou2018 could be appri late 2019. >> you want to trade it? >> if you think about what john
stoltzfus said, i think the call is the right one you will see industrials suffer in the environment where we go through the same trend if you think it is side ways like carter does, these are due probably test flows before finding balance. >> again, it is about opportunity cost it is about cyclicality and it is about the non-alpha proposition these stocks offered. you are not being paid to be long in this area of the market. >> i mean if you were just relying on, you know, say, the fundamentals of the economy and you take the trade war or tariffs out of it -- >> looking at pmis -- >> -- would these be good stock? >> yes, but the data is softening. >> pmi in germany was 43 not so good. >> not so good. >> even with the data here at home, pretty good. >> it is another conversation. >> no, it is this one. >> caterpillar is king of industrial stocks, right i mean things are slowing down it is clear. i mean globally things are slowing down caterpillar -- >> we have four minutes left. >> it was a $170 stock in
january of 2018, it made a series of lower lows and higher highs. it is going lower. >> xli, where would it be? the number one holder at xli is boeing boeing has under performed >> boeing has its own issues, right. >> yeah. >> i think i would be a buyer of boeing here. >> might get an extra trade out of it. >> what do you do with cat >> no, i think between what we have seen with resources, the pressure on the dollar, the flight to quality, caterpillar not expensive, but i don't see a fundamental basis for that. >> okay. for more "options action", be sure to check out the big show tomorrow at 5:30 p.m. eastern time you know who will be here for that >> who >> me. >> you will. >> "final trade" is up next. "options action" is sponsored by thinkorswim by td ameritrade ♪♪ ♪♪
dprevagen is the number onemild memopharmacist-recommendedng? memory support brand. you can find it in the vitamin aisle in stores everywhere. prevagen. healthier brain. better life. all right. time for final trades. around the horns, why don't you start us off >> i think silver is as good it as anything here it will work. >> interesting unusual activity today from pn pn pete najarian on that. what have you got? >> gm reported numbers that beat and reaffirmed where everybody knows the company is more efficient than ever, paying a
dividend at 6.5 times as best. >> grasso. >> the bright shining moment in retail, ross stars. >> you already picked that. >> thanks for being here, scott. great show tonight mckesson coming off a monster quarter. >> all right that does it for us, "mad money" my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer! welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm trying save you some money my job isn't just to entertain, but put this one into context. call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me at jim cramer boom that's the sound of a 10% tariff hitting th